WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT

    Science.gov (United States)

    NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

  2. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  3. Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity:

    OpenAIRE

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.W.O.; Perry, C.J.; W. G. M. Bastiaanssen

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative method - that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis - is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption and associated biomass production using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). This generates input for the socio-economic analysis, which aims to quantify the foregone economic w...

  4. Introduction: Behavioral economics, business decision making and applied policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Berg, Nathan

    2007-01-01

    The emergence of behavioural economics has provided new insights into economic and business phenomena by integrating elements of economic theory and experimental psychology. So far, the behavioural economics research agenda has concentrated on the empirical validity of foundational assumptions, producing new descriptive accounts of behavioural patterns that are difficult to explain using traditional neoclassical assumptions. This agenda has now developed sufficiently to begin exploring how to...

  5. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Goodchild, Michael F.; Luc Anselin; Linna Li; Wenwen Li

    2013-01-01

    Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) for urban economic analysis and simulation. Th...

  6. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  7. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  8. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  9. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  10. The Economics and Politics of Trade Policy: An Empirical Analysis of ITC Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Wendy L.; Prusa, Thomas J.

    1996-01-01

    We study the determinants of trade policy decisions focusing specifically on antidumping and countervailing duty statutes administered by the International Trade Commission (ITC). Using detailed industry, import, and political pressure data we model ITC decision making, weighing the relative impact of economic and political factors in predicting policy outcomes. We find the ITC's decision making is significantly influenced by both economic and political factors. However, because an industry h...

  11. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment. PMID:23843123

  12. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

  13. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

    OpenAIRE

    Tainio Marko; Tuomisto Jouni T

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied ...

  14. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

    2010-05-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. PMID:20117877

  15. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

  17. The Process of Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Projecting Economic Consequences of Design Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    AIA Journal, 1976

    1976-01-01

    Life-cycle cost analysis deals with both present and future costs and attempts to relate the two as a basis for making decisions. This article lays the groundwork for a better understanding of the techniques of life-cycle cost analysis. (Author/MLF)

  18. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS (EPA/600/R-01/104)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental decision support tools often provide information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. Medical decision making and health economics offer many metrics that allow aggregation of these different health outcomes. Th...

  19. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.

  20. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  1. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external finarequirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  2. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainio Marko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

  3. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  4. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 87%. EGAT predicts that total demand will increase from about 16,126 MWe now to about 22,282 MWe in year 2006. Thailand has a diversified energy resource base, consisting of natural gas, oil, lignite, and hydropower. This paper will present the methodology to select power plant, from coal-fired, oil-fired, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the power generation cost of power plant with consideration of the net present worth (NPW) and interest rate return (IRR), it shows that nuclear power plant will offer the lowest IRR, and the highest IRR is combined cycle power plant. While the NPW for the best worthwhile projects and suitable investment is imported coal-fired power plant and the runner-up is nuclear power plant at 4-6 years construction period. (author)

  5. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

  6. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  7. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  8. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

  9. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    OpenAIRE

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic...

  10. Alara and decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In applying ALARA somebody has to determine what is reasonable. A decision has to be made. Decision Analysis is a procedure for structuring decision problems, and therefore it might be expected to be of use in the application of the ALARA principle. This paper explores the contribution that Decision Analysis may make in this context, particularly discussing the application of multi-attribute value theory. An example of using the theory on a problem of radioactive waste disposal is given, and the potential of an increased use of Decision Analysis in making the ALARA principle work, is discussed

  11. Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

  12. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively. This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio.

  13. INFORMATION AND STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC ENTITIES MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    LUCIAN IOAN SAB?U

    2012-01-01

    Information and decision are two key elements economic entities management. Information represents the support of decision making by those managing the economic entity, helping them take the right decision for them to achieve set objectives. Strategic decisions provide long-term success of the economic entity outlining its internal and external stand. Those responsible for making strategic decisions have the ability to influence the economic entity’s success through these decisions they tak...

  14. Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  15. Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions : an economic survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tove; Olsen, SØren BØye

    Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline of the many different Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques available and their relative advantages and disadvantages. In addition, theoretical and practical problems related to the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and MCA respectively are briefly discussed. We then review the MCA literature on case studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming.

  16. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  17. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  18. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  19. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  20. Priority setting for decision makers: using health economics in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitton, C R

    2002-01-01

    Based on the premise of resource scarcity in health care,numerous approaches to priority setting have been proposed. However, limited comparative analysis is found in the literature, and decision makers lack knowledge of available tools. Several approaches to priority setting are critiqued here from both practical and theoretical perspectives, including needs assessment, cost-of-illness studies, core services, economic evaluation and quality-adjusted life-year league tables, and program budgeting and marginal analysis (PBMA). Most explicit priority setting approaches fail to recognize the underlying economic principles of opportunity cost and the margin, leading in part to their lack of widespread use in practice and to the perpetuation of historical allocation patterns. PBMA is based on underlying economic principles and has been widely used in practice. While there are many approaches to priority setting, even so-called "economic" techniques often fail to recognize fundamental economic principles, leaving decision makers unable to meet key objectives. Greater focus on these principles will aid in priority setting in practice. PMID:15609149

  1. Economic impacts of criticality safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear criticality safety has been recognized as the dominant economic influence on many large-scale fissile material processing operations. Recognizing that the cost of converting plutonium scrap to high-purity metal can be as great as $15/g, it becomes obvious that overly conservative safety decisions can add appreciably to process costs. On the other hand, a process accident that results in a facility suspending operations for an extended interval can also have very large fiscal impact, in addition to the obvious concern with operator safety. Clearly, the need is for appropriate control of risk without undue penalty to process efficiencies. A few examples demonstrate that good criticality safety practices can enhance process efficiencies and help control costs while providing effective control of criticality risks

  2. HERRAMIENTAS TEORICO CONCEPTUALES PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES EN COMITÉS DE ECONOMIA PÚBLICA / CONCEPTUAL THEORETICAL TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS COMMITTEES

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Francisca, Salinas Esteban; Munir Andrés, Jalil Barney.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es un trabajo de carácter teórico la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública. Se expondrá en primer lugar algunos conceptos básicos sobre la toma de decisiones, tales como: 1- las condiciones, 2- los factores individuales, 3- grupales y 4- las clasificaciones de las decisione [...] s, especialmente relacionadas al campo de las políticas públicas. Posteriormente, se presentarán algunos de los modelos sobre toma de decisiones relacionados con vertientes de la teoría económica y trabajos empíricos sobre la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública, tanto fiscal como monetaria, los cuales pueden servir como marco de referencia para futuras investigaciones. Abstract in english This article is a theoretical work on the topic of decision making in public economics committees. It will present a First some basics about decisions such as: 1 conditions - 2 individual factors 3 - group and 4 - classifications of particular decisions related to the field of public policy. Later i [...] n January - will be presented some models of decision making related to aspects of economic theory and 2 - empirical work on decision making in committees specifically in public economics committees both fiscal and monetary, which can serve as a framework for reference for future research.

  3. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  4. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs. PMID:25272129

  5. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  6. Cholera vaccination: a decision analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    MacPherson, D.W.; Tonkin, M

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the clinical impact and financial cost of a vaccination program for the prevention of cholera in North Americans travelling to endemic and epidemic regions by means of the principles of decision analysis and a decision tree as well as to illustrate the effect of case attack rates on the cost per case prevented by vaccination. DESIGN: Review of the scientific literature to establish the probabilities of each significant outcome as well as a decision analysis and partial e...

  7. Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farb NA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

  8. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference for couples. Before the birth, the future may be vague. After the birth, life without a child becomes unimaginable. PMID:12291178

  9. Decision analysis for nuclear safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines some efficient data for analyzing and interpreting safeguards data. Decision analysis is used to detect missing material (possible diversion) in dynamic materials accounting, in which the plant is divided into discrete accounting areas. The different statistical tests used in decision analysis are discussed. To demonstrate the application of decision analysis, results are presented of a study of materials accounting in the Pu purification process in a fuel reprocessing plant similar to Barnwell; the sensitivity to diversion was determined. 36 references, 6 figures, 5 tables

  10. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

  11. Making Rational Decisions in Economics - The Role of Sunk and Marginal Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott Simkins

    This JiTT exercise uses a real-life example to pose a question to students about the nature of "rationality" as typically used in economics. In this case, the focus is on fixed vs. marginal costs and the use of marginal analysis by economists to make "rational" economic decisions. This example is also used to illustrate how to use JiTT in economics.

  12. Decision support system for economic value of irrigation water

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Gafy, Inas; El-Ganzori, Akram

    2012-06-01

    The mismatch between the supply and demand, inequitable distribution and the over irrigation of water consuming crops are the main constraints that are faced in the implementation of the integrated water resources management in Egypt. With water scarcity, the problem under consideration is that the current cropping pattern is not economically efficient in the utilization of the available water resource. Moreover, in consequence of the importance of the agricultural sector to the national economies, it is necessary to be aware of the economic performance of water use in the crops production. The scope of this study is to develop economic value of irrigation water maps of Egypt. The objective of the study is carried out by acquiring a Decision Support System for economic value of irrigation water of Egypt. This Decision Support System is applied for developing economic value maps for the irrigation water that is used for cultivating 45 crops under cereal, fiber, legumes, and vegetables, herbalist, and forages categories at each governorate of Egypt in year 2008 and 2009. The crops that achieve the highest and lowest economic value of irrigation water at each governorate of Egypt were identified. The reasons of the variations in the economic value of irrigation water at the governorates of Egypt were determined. The developed Decision Support System could be used yearly as a tool for demonstrating a picture about the economic value of irrigation water for the decision makers in the areas of water resources and agriculture. The developed economic value of irrigation water maps can be used in proposing a cropping pattern that maximizes the economic value of irrigation water in each governorate of Egypt.

  13. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  14. Extending handivote to handle digital economic decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Cockshott, P.; Renaud, K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing realisation that the populace need to be consulted on a more regular basis about issues that concern them. We address a particular economic problem, that of national budgeting, and show how digital technology can be applied in an understandable way in this domain. The current situation is that governments are reluctant to conduct plebiscites due to the expenses inherent in the traditional voting model. Handivote is a system which allows maximal participation, using a ubiqui...

  15. Latent effects decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J. Arlin (Albuquerque, NM); Werner, Paul W. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2004-08-24

    Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

  16. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  17. Assessment of the economic consequences of investment decisions companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.Yu. Shilova

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In the article the features of investment decisions taking into account the existing capacity to attract a variety of sources of funding. We propose a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the capital structure of the investment project entity in financial and economic condition of the enterprise as a whole.

  18. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  19. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas R. Stabler

    2008-01-01

    In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

  20. IDEAL trial: economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona de Portu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the IDEAL (“High-dose atorvastatin vs usual-dose simvastatin for secondary prevention after myocardial infarction” study was carried out to compare intensive lowering of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol using the highest recommended dose of atorvastatin 80 mg with simvastatin 20 mg. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of simvastatin in reducing major coronary events in patients with a history of acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Methods: the analysis is based on clinical outcome data from the IDEAL study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of simvastatin (20 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 4.8 years. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of atorvastatin therapy over the 4.8 years period amounted to approximately 2.4 millions euro per 1,000 patients. The total cost of atorvastatin high dose was about 3.9 millions euro, the incremental cost per patient free from event is 31.176,03 euro. Discussion: this evaluation found that atorvastatin therapy is cost-effective. Results were sensitive to either clinical or economic variables.

  1. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. Economic evaluation of nuclear R and D covers the economic output performances for major 18 projects carried out by using the nuclear R and D fund during past 10 years, economic feasibility analysis of SMART project and HANA fuel cladding project. The economic output performed by nuclear R and D during the period includes the economic effects of the R and D on the sales increase, national economic contribution, CO2 emission reduction. The analysis was performed in a quantitative way by using micro and macro approaches

  2. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

    2009-10-01

    What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

  3. Law versus economics? How should insurance intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision

    OpenAIRE

    Pape, Annika

    2013-01-01

    How should intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision? The answer must refer to the interdependence of economic determinants and legal duties. Intermediaries potentially guide demand decisions by delivering objective information and by considering individuals' situation and economic circumstances. The economic theory provides determinants that are essential for the insurance demand decision. Undoubtedly, consumers lack information about certain variables, and therefore misjudge th...

  4. Multicriteria decision analysis in geographic information science

    CERN Document Server

    Malczewski, Jacek

    2015-01-01

    This book integrates Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information Science, offering a comprehensive account of theories, methods, technologies and tools for tackling spatial decision problems and showing how GIS-MCDA aids planning and management.

  5. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  6. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  7. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

  8. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  9. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

  10. The role of health economic analyses in vaccine decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Steven

    2013-12-01

    Beginning in the 20th century with the consideration of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the US, the cost effectiveness became a topic of discussion when this vaccine was being considered for universal use by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization practices (ACIP). In 2008, the ACIP began using formal criteria for the presentation of such data and their inclusion in ACIP discussions. More recently, the US Institute of Medicine has recommended that health economic considerations play a primary role in the prioritization of future vaccine for development. However, such analyses can be biased towards vaccines that provide economic benefit rather than those that reduce severe morbidity and mortality. This is because the economic impact of minor common events that result in medical utilization or time lost from work for parents can outweigh the economic impact of severe morbidity and mortality. Thus diseases with a low mortality and morbidity but with a common clinical manifestation such as the common cold could be prioritized over vaccines against diseases such as meningococcal sepsis where the morbidity and mortality associated with each case is very high, but there is no associated common clinical syndrome. Thus the use of cost effectiveness analyses as a 'gating criteria' to decide which vaccines should be developed or routinely used runs the risk of transforming vaccines into primarily a tool for achieving cost savings within the health care system rather than a public health intervention targeting human suffering, death and disability. It is the purpose of this article to review the framework under which health economic evaluations can be undertaken, to review the experience with and reliability of such analyses, and to discuss the potential negative implications of the use of health economic analyses as a primary decision making tool. PMID:23968768

  11. Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry

    OpenAIRE

    Oscarson, Nils

    2006-01-01

    The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

  12. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  13. Analysis of Investment Decision by Nigerian Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel TSADO

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Decisions taken by Pension Fund Administrators whether to invest in a particular asset class or not depend upon relative importance of different factors. The relative importance of these factors and the interactions among decisions taken by PFAs has remained unknown to the contributors. Therefore, this study is designed to examine factors affecting investment decision in PFAs. This research work examined the factors that influence investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs. The study also evaluated investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs based on both qualitative and quantitative factors.
    Primary data were used for this research, which were generated through the use of questionnaire. Simple random sampling technique was used to select respondents from five PFAs in Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using factor analysis.
    The result of the study indicates that three factors were considered by PFA managers when making investment decisions: Economic, Risk and Security of real estate factors. The study concluded that National Pension Commission should be a bit flexible in its regulatory restriction of investment areas of PFAs to enhance a better investment decision making process. The study therefore, recommended that PFAs should use reward structure to ensure accountability of those that are in charge of investment decision making.

    Key words: Investment; Decision making; Pension Fund Administrator; Factor analysis; National pension commission

  14. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  15. 2008 Economic crisis analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Golmohammadpoor Azar, Kamran; Mansoori, Masoud

    2011-01-01

    Recent economic crisis started from the American Housing. In 2005, the price of housing started to grow and for gaining more profit, the banks inclined to housing and provided applicants with lots of facilities. With the burst of price bubbles, intense reduction of prices occurred in the housing market and the loan recipients did not have any motives to repay their loans. Therefore, the credit- providing and official organs that had given lots of facilities to the housing sector faced crisis...

  16. IDEAL trial: economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Simona De Portu; Sabato Montella; Enrica Menditto; Simona Cammarota; Anna Citarella; Mantovani, Lorenzo G.

    2008-01-01

    Introduction: the IDEAL (“High-dose atorvastatin vs usual-dose simvastatin for secondary prevention after myocardial infarction”) study was carried out to compare intensive lowering of low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol using the highest recommended dose of atorvastatin 80 mg with simvastatin 20 mg. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of simvastatin in reducing major coronary events in patients with a history of acute ...

  17. Dopaminergic modulation of the trade-off between probability and time in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrondo, Gonzalo; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Fernández-Seara, Maria A; Goñi, Joaquín; Loayza, Francis R; Salamon-Klobut, Ewa; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, Maria A

    2015-06-01

    Studies on animals and humans have demonstrated the importance of dopamine in modulating decision-making processes. In this work, we have tested dopaminergic modulation of economic decision-making and its neural correlates by administering either placebo or metoclopramide, a dopamine D2-receptor antagonist, to healthy subjects, during a functional MRI study. The decision-making task combined probability and time delay with a fixed monetary reward. For individual behavioral characterization, we used the Probability Time Trade-off (PTT) economic model, which integrates the traditional trade-offs of reward magnitude-time and reward magnitude-probability into a single measurement, thereby quantifying the subjective value of a delayed and probabilistic outcome. A regression analysis between BOLD signal and the PTT model index permitted to identify the neural substrate encoding the subjective reward-value. Behaviorally, medication reduced the rate of temporal discounting over probability, reflected in medicated subjects being more prone to postpone the reward in order to increase the outcome probability. In addition, medicated subjects showed less activity during the task in the postcentral gyrus as well as frontomedian areas, whereas there were no differences in the ventromedial orbitofrontal cortex (VMOFC) between groups when coding the subjective value. The present study demonstrates by means of behavior and imaging that dopamine modulation alters the probability-time trade-off in human economic decision-making. PMID:25840742

  18. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  19. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative contextxt

  20. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S. [Centre of Human Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 40 Bd du Pont-d' Arve, CH-1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Baranzini, A. [Geneva School of Business Administration, University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland, Geneva (Switzerland); Germond-Duret, C. [Graduate Institute of International Relations, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A. [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland); Rafaj, P. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIAS, Laxenburg (Austria)

    2006-11-15

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context.

  1. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the US Department of Commerce, is the self-proclaimed "nation's accountant." BEA provides figures on the national, regional and international economic accounts. National accounts data include gross domestic product (GDP), input-output accounts, and gross product by industry. Regional accounts data include information on gross state product and state personal income, while international economic accounts include information on exports, imports and capital flows to and from the United States. The site also contains articles explaining how the accounts are calculated.

  2. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  3. Energy-economics-environment analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on topical studies related to energy and nuclear power in the context of sustainable development, and of techno-economic factors potentially affecting the future development of nuclear technologies. It offers over-arching analyses of energy, environmental and economic issues in the context of national sustainable development and energy security goals, and in competitive markets. These studies are done in collaboration with or used by MS and other international organisations for informed decision-making about the future role of nuclear technologies. The IAEA further offers energy assessments: comparing different energy technologies and choices, exploring and quantifying their costs, consequences and benefits, with a special focus, where appropriate, on nuclear power. Economic assessments offered include comparing the costs, relative cost-effectiveness and viability of nuclear and other technology choices, policy alternatives, or different climate change mitigation or sustainable development strategies, taking into account technology learning and innovation. Environmental assessments offered include estimating environmental impacts and external costs (health effects and materials damage) of pollution arising from specific energy production and use patterns

  4. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  5. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  6. Applying Bayesian decision theory to assess reprocessing economic and social cost-benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian decision theory, combined with conventional systems analysis techniques into the discipline called decision analysis, has been applied in this work to assess economic and social cost-benefits associated with reprocessing nuclear fuel. Particular attention in this paper is given to the models which have been developed to place numerical estimates in dollar terms on the three categories of social risks that have been identified with reprocessing. These categories include: (1) health, environment, and safety, (2) diversion of fissile material, including sabotage, terrorist acts, and subnational diversion, and (3) nuclear proliferation, defined to be a diversion at the national level to obtain weapons capability. The emphasis is placed on the third category, as proliferation risk has not been treated elsewhere in a quantitative fashion; most arguments have in the main been qualitative conjectures put forth by political scientists

  7. Using of fuzzy and imitation models and cluster analysis for decision of marketing tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borisova, Tetyana Myhaylivna

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Actuality of using of some economic-mathematical methods at the decision of marketing tasks is considered in the article. The examples of using of fuzzy evaluation, cluster analysis and imitation modelling in marketing are presented here.

  8. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  9. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  10. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  11. Innovation decision of Tunisian service firms: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sdiri, Hanen; Ayadi, Mohamed

    2011-01-01

    Innovation is widely recognised as a key driver of economic growth and competitiveness. But, some works focus especially on analyzing the determinants and the effects of innovation while distinguishing between its various types (product innovation, process innovation, radical innovation and incremental innovation). The analysis of the determinants is certainly important, but few research efforts testing the way in which firms make the decision to innovate. Based on a sample of 108 Tunisian se...

  12. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lu?cia Lourenc?o

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. ...

  13. Antitrust and Copyright Collectives – an Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zablocka, Adrianna

    2008-01-01

    The activity of the copyright collecting societies had been scrutinized by many antitrust authorities. The paper presents the decision taken by the President of the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK), which deals with abusing practices of Polish copyright collective society – ZAiKS. The paper concentrates on the economic aspects of the decision from the President of UOKiK.

  14. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  15. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  16. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Chung

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning. This framework consists of four parts which are to spatially identify the grades on hydrological vulnerability (potential streamflow depletion and potential water quality deterioration, to evaluate the monetary values of improvements on hydrological vulnerability grades using the choice experiment method, to derive an alternative evaluation index (AEI to quantify the effectiveness of all alternatives, and to combine the derived willingness-to-pays (WTPs with the AEI and do the cost-benefit analysis of feasible alternatives. This framework includes the stakeholder participation in order to quantify the preferences with regard to management objectives (water quantity and quality and WTPs of alternatives. Finally, the economic values of each alternative can be estimated by this study which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability grades with the AEI. The proposed procedure is applied in the Anyangcheon watershed which has been highly urbanized for past thirty years. As a result, WTPs are $0.24~$10.08/month-household for water quantity and $0.80~$8.60/month-household for water quality and residents of the five regions among six have higher WTPs for water quality improvement. Finally, since three of ten alternatives have BC>0, they can be proposed to the decision makers. This systematic screening procedure will provide decision makers with the flexibility to obtain stakeholders' consensus for water resources planning.

  17. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  18. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  19. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    OpenAIRE

    Ion ISTUDOR; Luminita DUTA

    2010-01-01

    Decision Support Systems (DSS) form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the ...

  20. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ?50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  1. Comparative analysis of multicriteria decision making methods

    OpenAIRE

    Mota, Pedro Jorge Gomes

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this dissertation is to perform a Comparative Analysis of different Multicriteria Decision Making Methods applied to real-world problems, in order to produce relevant information to enable the incorporation of those methods on computational platforms. The current document presents a simple case study concerning a decision support application targeted for a real problem regarding retrofitting alternatives of a building with energy efficiency impact. The application proces...

  2. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  3. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of nuclear power from the perspective of sustainable development. Nuclear issues have become lied at the center of social concerns in Korea because they include not only the field of energy supply but also the social interests and conflicts. This study will help to provide the unbiased information, which can be referred to and utilized in reaching a social consensus on the related social issues. This study includes both the nuclear related issues in the electricity planning and the regional economic effects by nuclear power. The nuclear related issues in the electricity planning in the study include the probability assessment of the current national forecasted electricity demand being materialized, projection of the proper nuclear capacity, and the proper role and prospects of renewable energy, and distributed generation. For the analysis on the regional economic effect from nuclear power, the region of Uljin was chosen, and input output analysis on the region was carried out. For the input output analysis, we created the regional I/O table by classifying the number of producing sectors into 14 taking into consideration the availability of the regional statistics

  4. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

    2009-01-01

    What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions accordin...

  5. Using decision analysis in physical protection planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

  6. DEFINING AND MEASURING RISK AND OPPORTUNITY IN BOCR FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Bouzarour-amokrane, Yasmina; Tchangani, Ayeley; Pe?re?s, Franc?ois

    2012-01-01

    Decision aid through analysis of benefit, opportunity, cost and risk (BOCR) offer the structural framework to get all necessary information to an effective decision making. It was investigated by researchers of differents fields (economics, engineering, management, ...) and many evaluation and recommendation methods have been published in the literature to help decision makers to make their choice. However, most of the existing methods do not focus on quantification and evaluation of uncertai...

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range of impacts of also a strategic character (van Exel et al., 2002). Accordingly, appraisal methodologies are undergoing substantial changes in order to deal with the developments (Vickerman, 2000) that are varying from country to country and leading to different approaches (Banister and Berechman, 2000). It is, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport infrastructure project is for this reason required. An appropriate ex-ante evaluation method for such projects can be based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Tsamboulas, 2007. Vreeker et al. 2002), which in most cases canbe combined with a CBA (Leleur, 2000). Scanning the literature (Belton and Stewart, 2002; Goodwin and Wright, 2009; Keeney and Raiffa, 1993; von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986) it is found that the use of MCDA in the decision process usually provides some or all of the following features: 1. Improvement of the satisfaction with the decision process 2. Improvement of the quality of the decision itself 3. Increased productivity of the decision-makers MCDA can in this respect be seen as a tool for appraisal of different alternatives, when several points of view and priorities are taken into account to produce a common output. Hence, it is very useful during the formulation of a decision support system (DSS) designed to deal with complex issues. The literature on DSS is extensive, providing a sound basis for the methodologies employed and the mathematics involved. Moreover, there are numerous systems covering several disciplines, policy contexts and users’ needs for specific application environments (Janic, 2003; Salling et al., 2007; Tsamboulas and Mikroudis, 2006). The use of DSS for solving MCDA problems has among others been treated by Barfod (2012), Chen et al. (2008) and Larichev et al. (2002), where it is shown that a DSS can effectively support a decision making process making use of appropriate MCDA methodologies.

  8. Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Teubner, Timm

    2013-01-01

    This work considers economic decision making, particularly scenarios in which the decision maker faces the presence of other (private) persons. It draws inferences for the design, operation, and use of e-commerce platforms from an economic and information systems perspective and is oriented along two vital concepts therein: social preferences and risk. The role of the type as well as the relation towards the reference person is explored from an empirical and game theoretical perspective.

  9. Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

  10. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  11. Incidental sadness biases social economic decisions in the Ultimatum Game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlé, Katia M; Sanfey, Alan G

    2007-11-01

    Recent dual-process models of decision making have suggested that emotion plays an important role in decision making; however, the impact of incidental moods (i.e., emotions unrelated to the immediate situation) on decisions remains poorly explored. This question was investigated by inducing 2 basic emotional states (amusement or sadness) that were compared with a neutral-emotion control group. Decision making was assessed with a well-studied social task, the Ultimatum Game. In this task, participants had to make decisions to either accept or reject monetary offers from other players, offers that varied in their degree of unfairness. Emotion was induced with short movie clips. Induced sadness interacted with offer fairness, with higher sadness resulting in lower acceptance rates of unfair offers. Induced amusement was not associated with any significant biases in decision making. These results demonstrate that even subtle incidental moods can play an important role in biasing decision making. Implications of these results in regards to the emotion, cognitive neuroscience, and clinical literatures are discussed. PMID:18039057

  12. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  13. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does not have unlimited economic resources. Thus it is necessary to prioritise between the many projects and initiatives which are being discussed in the public sector. In order to conduct such a comprehensive prioritisation (across different sectors or within the same sector) it is a precondition that a systematic evaluation of the projects/proposals/initiatives’ advantages and disadvantages is carried out. For many years cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been used as the main tool for the purpose of economic comparison not only in Denmark but also in many other countries around the world. Investment projects that have been prepared thoroughly and evaluated to have a high socio-economic return seem to be able to obtain political acceptance more easily than projects that have not been evaluated through this type of assessment. On the other hand socio-economic assessments can also be used to turn down projects that do not show a satisfactory return. In the political prioritisation process other considerations of a political, environmental or economic character may influence the decision making. Some of these are not traditionally a part of the socioeconomic assessment, but are instead used as a supplement in the final decision phase. The socioeconomic assessment strives towards valuing all advantages and disadvantages of a project. On the background of this the project’s value for the society is calculated. This value can afterwards be compared to the values for other projects. The socio-economic appraisal is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning related tasks.

  14. Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Donna

    2010-08-01

    Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

  15. The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutton Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.

  16. Economic modelling to optimize dairy heifer management decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Mourits, M. C. M.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of heifer rearing within a dairy farm is to produce high quality dairy replacements at low costs. Heifer management decisions interact with the biological aspects of growth, thereby influencing the future profitability of the heifer. To maximize profitability farmers need to be aware of the potential impacts of these management decisions. However, this is a field of research that received only little attention. The objective of the research described in this thesis was to obtain...

  17. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

  18. The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izotov Viktor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

  19. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  20. 75 FR 49890 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-16

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St., NW...Andrake, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  1. 76 FR 59111 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-23

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  2. 77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-05

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  3. 75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St., NW...Outreach Lead, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  4. 78 FR 10599 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-14

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  5. 77 FR 21081 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-09

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  6. 76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ...Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St., NW...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department...regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially...Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc....

  7. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to outperform the superior program. Adding ED to the 100% TAI programs was only beneficial for the program with the lower CR. The improvement in service rate required for the 100% ED program to have the same NPV as the superior 100% TAI program was 12%. The decision support system developed in this study is a valuable tool that may be used to assist dairy producers and industry consultants in selecting the best farm-specific reproductive management strategy. PMID:22118110

  8. Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Established in 1995, the Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA) is the research center of the Department of Economics at the New School for Social Research in New York city. To foster an "active forum for economic policy debate" CEPA offers three working paper series on Globalization, Labor Markets, and Social Policy; Economic Policy Analysis; and International Capital Market and the Future of Economic Policy as well as a list of current workshops and research projects. CEPA's Research Resources metapage offers a compendium of funding opportunities.

  9. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

  10. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  11. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    OpenAIRE

    Nai-gen ZHANG

    2006-01-01


    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic) in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from ...

  12. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

  13. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

  14. Economic analysis of production bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

  15. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Soliman, T. A. A.; Mourits, M. C. M.; Oude Lansink, A. G. J. M.; Werf, W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available techniques for quantitative economic impact assessment: partial budgeting, partial equilibrium analysis, input output analysis, and computable general equilibrium analysis. These techniques differ in ...

  16. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-01-01

    Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other time...

  17. Sunk costs of consumer search: economic rationality of satisficing decision

    OpenAIRE

    Malakhov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The paper argues that sunk costs’ sensitivity can lead to the optimal consumption-leisure choice under price dispersion. The increase in quantity to be purchased with the extension of the time horizon of the consumption-leisure choice equalizes marginal costs of search with its marginal benefits. The implicit optimal choice results in the explicit satisficing decision. The transformation of cognitive mechanism of discouragement into satisficing happens only in the “common model” of cons...

  18. Decision making and economic performance of flower producers

    OpenAIRE

    Trip, G.

    2000-01-01

    Within Dutch agriculture, greenhouse horticulture stands out as a growing and innovative sector. In such circumstances of growth and innovation, one would expect a fast development of management support systems. However, apart from climate control, the role of computerized support systems for management purposes (planning/evaluation) is still very limited. The purpose of this study is get insight into the decision-making processes of greenhouse growers. A group of 26 specialized, comparable c...

  19. Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: A neuropsychological approach

    OpenAIRE

    Koscik, Timothy R.; Tranel, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, e.g., a person’s constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, e.g., luck or coincidence. This is known as the ‘correspondence bias.’ This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with dama...

  20. The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hutton Guy

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen availa...

  1. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  2. Degree of integration can influence organizational economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J B; Daugherty, D J

    1997-08-01

    When healthcare providers join to form contracting organizations to negotiate managed care contracts, the resulting organizations can be characterized by their degree of integration: tightly integrated (ie, a single bottom line) or loosely integrated (ie, economic independence of each affiliated entity is preserved). Tightly integrated organizations generally are more attractive to payers and better able to optimize returns on their managed care contracts. PMID:10168705

  3. A DECISION TREE APPLICATION IN TOURISM BASED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Panayiotis G.Curtis

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for the deficient performance of Ionian Islands tourism in terms of in coming revenues expressed in USD and return on equity capital invested on hotels is explored. The answers to the questioner of management of the hotels surveyed were analyzed with the use of the Decision Tree tool. The issue of competitiveness of the tourism product was assessed. The development of alternative forms of tourism is proposed as a means of improving competitiveness and restoring sustainability in the sector.

  4. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChristopherSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  5. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPLIED TO ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF AN AGRIBUSINESS PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Simões

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In practice, all management decisions involving an organization, regardless of size, have uncertainties which lead to different levels of risk. Monte Carlo simulation allows risk analysis by designing probabilistic models. From a deterministic model of economic viability indicators, commonly used for decision investment projects, it was developed a probabilistic model with Monte Carlo method simulations in order to carry out economic and financial analysis of an agroindustrial project for orange juice processing. Results showed that the financial investment for orange processing is economically viable with low risk.

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formanance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology

  7. Institutional formularies: the relevance of pharmacoeconomic analysis to formulary decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipsy, R J

    1992-04-01

    Formularies, in one form or another, have been in existence for nearly 100 years. Beginning simply as a list of available agents, the formulary has evolved into a complex system which acts as a guide to prescribing practices. As the importance of the formulary has increased, so has the need for formulary managers to make an appropriate decision about each drug's formulary status. Several systematic approaches to drug evaluations have been developed to aid in the decision process. However, while some reviews of drug utilisation contain fairly rigorous analyses of their clinical efficacy, very few include an economic evaluation that goes beyond the cost of drug acquisition, preparation, distribution and administration. This is surprising, since formulary managers rank economic data second only to clinical data when making formulary decisions. In the past this apparent oversight has been due, in part, to the absence of a sophisticated model which can both approximate a drug's true economic impact and express cost and quality in similar terms. The explosion of new and very expensive biotechnology drugs into the market has the potential to improve patient care significantly. Such drugs also have the potential to increase institutional pharmacy budgets significantly; with some analysts predicting a spending of $US60 million yearly for these drugs by the year 2000, critical evaluation will be mandatory. Fortunately, advances in the relatively new science of pharmacoeconomics have made it possible to conduct appropriate estimates of the true economic impact of new drug therapies. Pharmacoeconomic studies can be very useful in evaluating drugs for formulary inclusion and in assessing the effects of formulary changes on institutional budgets. Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses, utilising decision analysis models and/or data gathered from clinical studies, are used most frequently. Relatively simple models can be used to evaluate drugs within the same class if sufficient published data on their clinical efficacy and safety are available. More complex analyses are necessary when comparing dissimilar agents or when comparing agents with non-drug therapy. Pharmacoeconomic studies have frequently been used to demonstrate that very substantial direct costs of drug therapy are often offset by equal or greater reductions in other institutional direct and indirect patient care costs. Pharmacoeconomic studies have also been used to calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of drug therapies for different disease states, although such evaluations are more useful to governmental and regulatory agencies than to individual institutions.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) PMID:10147017

  8. Economic analysis for ecosystem service assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Mace, Georgina; Fezzi, Carlo; Atkinson, Giles; Turner, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    The paper seeks to contribute to the expanding literature on ecosystem service assessment by considering its integration with economic analyses of such services. Focussing upon analyses for future orientated policy and decision making, we initially consider a single period during which ecological stocks are maintained at sustainable levels. The flow of ecosystems services and their contribution to welfare bearing goods is considered and methods for valuing resultant benefits are reviewed and ...

  9. Relevant market, economic analysis and information.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zemplinerová, Alena

    Praha : Czech Association for Competition Law, 2008, s. 28-39. ISBN 978-80-254-3276-1 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : relevant market definition * competition law * economic analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  10. Decision and decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent us...

  11. Engineering economic analysis of research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper briefly describes few groups of parameters which characterize utilization factor, cost and output of neutron and effective irradiation space in a research reactor. An example was also made to introduce some calculation methods for engineering economic analysis. (author)

  12. ANALYSIS OF MANAGEMENT INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS

    OpenAIRE

    Condrat?chi, Liliana

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this work is the analysis of the influence of management on the economic efficiency. The working methods used in preparing of this material is the analysis, synthesis and observation applied following consultation with specialized literature. Research has demonstrated that a systemic approach to management contribute to the effectiveness and measurement of this system in economic practice. As a conclusion we could rely that the management is a primary middle, and efficiency is ...

  13. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  14. The Role of Economic Factors, Including the Level of Tuition, in Individual University Participation Decisions in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, David R.; Rahman, Fiona T.

    2005-01-01

    The study uses individual data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey to consider economic factors in university participation decisions by persons aged 17-24 from 1976 to 2003. The level of real tuition is one economic factor that may affect the university participation decision. There is also regional variation in the opportunity cost of…

  15. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of t age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  16. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  17. Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to il...

  18. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process. Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced laying the foundation with different case examples ranging from road, rail to air transport projects. Two major concerns in building the assessment model, CBA-DK, are to bring informed decision support to the decision-makers and to specify relevant probability distribution functions to feed into the Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific decision task. ADG depicts the decision-makers risk aversion towards a specific assessment task, i.e. by illustrating probabilities of an infeasible socio-economic rate of return. To perform informed decision support as proposed by ADG it is necessary to determine a set of suitable probability distributions. This selection process has been conducted among others by literature studies, conference and seminar attendances and substantial amount of tests within CBA-DK. Currently, the model is made up by five different distributions furtherdivided into two groups of non-parametric and parametric functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects.

  19. Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: a neuropsychological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koscik, Timothy R; Tranel, Daniel

    2013-08-01

    People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, for example, a person's constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, for example, luck or coincidence. This is known as the "correspondence bias." This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to the ventromedial pFC (vmPFC). Given the role of the vmPFC in social cognition, we predicted that vmPFC is necessary for the normal correspondence bias. In our experiment, consistent with expectations, healthy (n = 46) and brain-damaged (n = 30) comparison participants displayed the correspondence bias during economic decision-making and invested no differently when given dispositional or situational information. By contrast, vmPFC patients (n = 17) displayed a lack of correspondence bias and invested more when given dispositional than situational information. The results support the conclusion that vmPFC is critical for normal social inference and the correspondence bias. The findings help clarify the important (and sometimes disadvantageous) role of social inference in economic decision-making. PMID:23574584

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  1. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  2. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nai-gen ZHANG

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available
    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
    Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
    Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
    Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

  3. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  4. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-05-01

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U/sub 3/O/sub 8/ is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented.

  5. Radiation vulcanization of polymer film - economical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first stage results are presented for the development of SKEP - based insulation film radiational vulcanization with the use of a powerful electron accelerator. To estimate direct economic effects of the new technology, the dose of 150 Kjoule/kg (15 Mrad) and the radiation energy utilization factor of 0.6 have been taken. The preliminary economic analysis on replacing the existing technology for production of the rubber film by the radiational vulcanization technology has indicated a possibility in principle of such a replacement with a positive economic effect

  6. Evaluating Impacts of Economic Growth Proposals: An Analytical Framework for Use with Community Decision-Makers. Publication 8.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Filmore E., Ed.; Cunnings, Lucy M., Ed.

    The nine in this publication are based on the assumption that communities must develop a framework for analyzing economic growth if they are to make responsible decisions relative to rate and form of economic growth. Divided into two parts, this document presents: (1) papers relative to general perspectives on economic growth and development, and…

  7. Identifying Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Flood Control Decision - A Hydro-economic Hedging Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2011-12-01

    Different from conventional studies developing reservoir operation models and treating forecast as input to obtain operation decisions case by case, this study issues a hydro-economic analysis framework and derives some general relationships between optimal flood control decision and streamflow forecast. By analogy with the hedging rule theory for water supply, we formulate reservoir flood control with a two-stage optimization model, in which the properties of flood damage (i.e., diminishing marginal damage) and the characteristics of forecast uncertainty (i.e., the longer the forecast horizon, the larger the forecast uncertainty) are incorporated to minimize flood risk. We define flood conveying capacity surplus (FCCS) variables to elaborate the trade-offs between the release of current stage (i.e., stage 1) and in the release of future stage (i.e., stage 2). Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the flood risk trade-off between the two stages is theoretically represented and illustrated by three typical situations depending on forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude. The analytical results also show some complicated effects of forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude on real-time flood control decision: 1) When there is a big flood with a small FCCS, the whole FCCS should be allocated to the current stage to hedge against the more certain and urgent flood risk in the current stage; 2) when there is a medium flood with a moderate FCCS, some FCCS should be allocated to the future stage but more FCCS still should be allocated to the current stage; and 3) when there is a small flood with a large FCCS, more FCCS should be allocated to the future stage than the current stage, as a large FCCS in the future stage can still induce some flood risk (distribution of future stage forecast uncertainty is more disperse) while a moderate FCCS in the current stage can induce a small risk. Moreover, this study also presents a hypothetical case study to analyze the flood risk under Pseudo probabilistic streamflow forecast (pPSF, deterministic forecast with variance) and Real probabilistic streamflow forecast (rPSF, ensemble forecast) forecast uncertainties, which shows ensemble forecast techniques are more efficient on mitigating flood risk.

  8. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  9. A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods...

  10. Automated text-based analysis for decision-making research

    OpenAIRE

    Leifler, Ola; Eriksson, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    We present results from a study on constructing and evaluating a support tool for the extraction of patterns in distributed decision -making processes, based on design criteria elicited from a study on the work process involved in studying such decision-making. Specifically, we devised and evaluated an analysis tool for C2 researchers who study simulated decision-making scenarios for command teams. The analysis tool used text clustering as an underlying pattern extraction technique and was ev...

  11. Using Experimental Economics to Measure Social Capital And Predict Financial Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Karlan, Dean S.

    2005-01-01

    Questions remain as to whether results from experimental economics games are generalizable to real decisions in non-laboratory settings. Furthermore, important questions persist about whether social capital can help solve seemingly missing credit markets. I conduct two experiments, a Trust game and a Public Goods game, and a survey to measure social capital. I then examine whether behavior in the games predicts repayment of loans to a Peruvian group lending microfinance program. Since the str...

  12. Using pharmacoeconomic analysis to make drug insurance coverage decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anis, A H; Rahman, T; Schechter, M T

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to institute a cost-effectiveness-based reimbursement eligibility and coverage scheme for drugs in the Canadian province of British Columbia. All applications from drug manufacturers requesting Pharmacare (British Columbia government-funded drug insurance plan) coverage were evaluated by the Pharmacoeconomic Initiative (PI) of British Columbia. PI recommendations are according to a majority decision reached by a multidisciplinary volunteer expert committee and are based on a critical evaluation of pharmacoeconomic studies submitted by manufacturers seeking reimbursement eligibility. Coverage for drugs is universal and completely free for the financially indigent. Others are charged a small copayment and/or a deductible. PI assessments are evidence-based. Published guidelines from the Canadian Coordinating Office of Health Technology Assessment (CCOHTA) and/or Ontario Ministry of Health guidelines for the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals are recommended for preparing submissions to the PI. Between January 1996 and December 1996, the PI made recommendations on 21 submissions; 4 of these were cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analyses; 3 were cost-minimisation analyses; 6 were cost comparisons or cost-consequence analyses; and 8 were provincial formulary budget impact studies. Of the 21 PI recommendations, 18 were accepted by Pharmacare and decisions are pending for 2 others, thus providing a concordance rate of 95% (18/19; kappa = 0.89). A total of 7 of the 21 products were recommended for formulary inclusion by the PI; 4 were as per drug company requests (i.e. full-benefit status) and 3 were recommended under restricted use. Only 5 of 21 submissions, of which 4 had favourable reviews, complied with either the CCOHTA or the Ontario Ministry of Health guidelines. Most studies were conducted, not from a societal perspective, but from the perspective of the provincial healthcare system. Most of the analysis were short term and therefore discounting was not applied. Sensitivity analysis was not performed in more than half (52%) of the submissions, and 48% of applications used inappropriate comparators. Ontario is the only other Canadian province with a similar process, with cost-effectiveness criteria for reimbursement eligibility. However, analysis in that province during the same approximate time period demonstrated a low concordance between Ontario Drug Benefit and PI decisions (kappa = 0.07). Currently, the mandated or suggested use of technology assessments of pharmaceuticals with cost effectiveness as the primary end-point is a reality in several countries worldwide. Our results, based on actual experience from implementing such a programme, suggest that while industry is slow to adapt to the new reporting requirements it may also be sceptical about the importance of cost effectiveness and guideline compliance in decision-making. PMID:10176146

  13. An Analysis of Ethanol Investment Decisions in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Nisal Herath Mudiyanselage; -y Cynthia Lin, C.; Fujin Yi

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the decision to invest in building ethanol plants in Thailand. We analyze the effects of economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies on ethanol investment using discrete response and fixed effects regression models. Results show that the main factor that affects the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat is the number of ethanol plants already in the changwat. The number of ethanol plants already in the changwat has a sig...

  14. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  15. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and traf the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The topics to be addressed in this study include the mid and long-term strategic plan of KAERI, international panel review on KAERI, Human Resources Development specialized in nuclear field, economic feasibility studies on the several development projects including SMART, new research reactor and Sodium Fast Reactor. The existing R and D plans of KAERI as well as the related national programs, were reviewed and reflected to the plan. As the first step, the long-term R and D goals were identified, allowing for unique characteristics of nuclear R and D requiring long term investment. Secondly, five mid-term strategic goals were derived from the long term goals. Thirdly, many research projects to achieve the derived goals were identified, and then, 14 R and D projects were selected from the identified projects based on the criterion of the size of potential market. Finally, five strategic R and D projects with high priority were chosen based on the criterion of the existing research capacities. The value of acquisition of a design certificate of SMART was estimated to be in the range of 201.7?320.1 billion won far exceeding 170 billion won the total budget for it. The study suggests the probable selling prices of SMART ranging from 91 Won/kWh to 134 Won/kWh in case KHNP takes initiative the construction of SMART. As a result of the project, GHG reduction potential in 2020 was estimated to be 44 million ton in electric power generation, 1 million ton in oil refinery sector, 16 million ton in residential sector, 12 million ton in commercial sector and 22 million ton in transportation sector

  17. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  18. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  19. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  20. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  1. An Analysis of Ethanol Investment Decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisal Herath Mudiyanselage

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the decision to invest in building ethanol plants in Thailand. We analyze the effects of economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies on ethanol investment using discrete response and fixed effects regression models. Results show that the main factor that affects the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat is the number of ethanol plants already in the changwat. The number of ethanol plants already in the changwat has a significant negative effect on the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat, which suggests that potential investors are deterred by local competition in input and output markets.

  2. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  3. Economical Analysis about Ammonia Absorption Refrigeration Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takei, Toshitaka

    NH3-H2O absorption refrigeration plant is attractive from each standpoint of electric power saving, non-fluorocarbon and energy saving. The plant can be the economic alternative of power compression refrigeration for evaporation temperature range from 0°C to -60°C, using suitable waste heat (co-generation system, waste incinerator), oil and natural gas. In the application of the plant, the equipment cost and the COP must be reasonable from economical standpoint. Therefore, the paper shows the following. 1) Necessary heating temparature analysis for absorption plant 2) Equipment cost analysis for heating temperature 3) Equipment cost analysis for COP 4) Number of trays in the rectifying column for COP 5) Equipment cost analysis and COP in two-stage absorption

  4. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  5. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  6. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    OpenAIRE

    Webb, E. C.; Mccrindle, C. M. E.; Sebei, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  7. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ayoola

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria....

  8. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  9. An economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  10. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  11. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    CERN Document Server

    Harp, Dylan R

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

  12. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  13. Integrating regional economic development analysis and land use economics

    OpenAIRE

    Partridge, Mark D.; Rickman, Dan S.

    2012-01-01

    Two largely separate literatures exist on regional economic development and land use economics. In this chapter, we argue that a full understanding of each of the two areas requires greater knowledge of their interrelationship. We review key studies of the two literatures, particularly those related to the close interconnectedness of regional economic development and land use. We contend that a critical shortcoming in the literatures is that key features that affect both land use and economic...

  14. Substance misuse prevention and economic analysis: Challenges and opportunities regarding international utility

    OpenAIRE

    Guyll, Max; Spoth, Richard; Cornish, Marilyn

    2012-01-01

    Economic analyses of substance misuse prevention assess the intervention cost necessary to achieve a particular outcome, and thereby provide an additional dimension for evaluating prevention programming. This paper reviews several types of economic analysis, considers how they can be applied to substance misuse prevention, and discusses challenges to enhancing their international relevance, particularly their usefulness for informing policy decisions. Important first steps taken to address th...

  15. The influence of personality on students' career decisiveness: A comparison between Chinese and German economics and management students

    OpenAIRE

    Gunkel, Marjaana; Schlaegel, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Within the last decade, the relation between personality and career decisiveness has received increased attention. This study examines the country-specific influence of the Big Five personality traits on career decisiveness and its determinants, namely career related adaptability, career-related optimism, and career-related knowledge, among 406 Chinese and German economics and management students. The results show that personality traits affect career decisiveness and its determinants and tha...

  16. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold

  17. Decision-tree analysis of control strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Romann M; Fajen, Brett R

    2015-06-01

    A major focus of research on visually guided action is the identification of control strategies that map optical information to actions. The traditional approach has been to test the behavioral predictions of a few hypothesized strategies against subject behavior in environments in which various manipulations of available information have been made. While important and compelling results have been achieved with these methods, they are potentially limited by small sets of hypotheses and the methods used to test them. In this study, we introduce a novel application of data-mining techniques in an analysis of experimental data that is able to both describe and model human behavior. This method permits the rapid testing of a wide range of possible control strategies using arbitrarily complex combinations of optical variables. Through the use of decision-tree techniques, subject data can be transformed into an easily interpretable, algorithmic form. This output can then be immediately incorporated into a working model of subject behavior. We tested the effectiveness of this method in identifying the optical information used by human subjects in a collision-avoidance task. Our results comport with published research on collision-avoidance control strategies while also providing additional insight not possible with traditional methods. Further, the modeling component of our method produces behavior that closely resembles that of the subjects upon whose data the models were based. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that data-mining techniques provide powerful new tools for analyzing human data and building models that can be applied to a wide range of perception-action tasks, even outside the visual-control setting we describe. PMID:25316047

  18. Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cri?an, Liviu G.; Pan?, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M.; Szekely, Raluca; Drug?, Bogdan; Drago?, Nicolae

    2009-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and susceptibility to framing in decision making under uncertainty, as well as multidimensional anxiety and autonomic control of the heart in healthy volunteers. The present results indicate that in comparison to the homozygotes for the long (l) version of 5-HTTLPR, the carriers of the short (s) version display enhanced observational FC, reduced financial risk taking and increased susceptibility to framing in economic decision making. We also found that s-carriers have increased trait anxiety due to threat in social evaluation, and ambiguous threat perception. In addition, s-carriers also show reduced autonomic control over the heart, and a pattern of reduced vagal tone and increased sympathetic activity in comparison to l-homozygotes. This is the first genetic study that identifies the association of a functional polymorphism in a key neurotransmitter-related gene with complex social–emotional and cognitive processes. The present set of results suggests an endophenotype of anxiety disorders, characterized by enhanced social learning of fear, impaired decision making and dysfunctional autonomic activity. PMID:19535614

  19. A Decision Aid Approach for Optimisation Problems Involving Several Economic Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moeti Joseph Rangoaga

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.

  20. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.C. Webb

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians.

  1. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

  2. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies.

  3. Factors affecting location decisions of the economic headliners - exporters and foreign-owned firms - in China

    OpenAIRE

    Trofimenko, Natalia

    2010-01-01

    Foreign-owned firms are frequently viewed as an important source of new capital, access to world markets and employment generation and there exist numerous studies on the determinants of FDI flows and the role of incentives designed to attract FDI. Similarly important for economic growth are exporters, yet the factors that play a role in their location decisions have not been identified. Using a data set of 1,409 firms in China who report, among other things, why they have chosen a particular...

  4. An economic spreadsheet model to determine optimal breeding and replacement decisions for dairy cattle

    OpenAIRE

    Groenendaal, H.; Galligan, D. T.; Mulder, H. A.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe a user-friendly spreadsheet culling model that was constructed to support economical, optimal breeding and replacement decisions on dairy farms. The model was based on the marginal net revenue technique. Inputs for the model can be entered for specific farm conditions, and the output is easily accessible. In the model, the retention pay-off (RPO) value of individual dairy cows was calculated. The RPO value of a cow is equal to the total additional profits ...

  5. Economic Analysis, Sustainability and Environmental Commons

    OpenAIRE

    Musu, Ignazio

    2013-01-01

    When confronted with market weaknesses and failures determining sustainability problems for environmental common-pool resources, economic analysis has proposed government intervention as the only alternative available. Elinor Ostrom showed that this dichotomy between market and government is not always helpful, and proposed a more complex approach to institutions focusing on an active role of communities, social norms and a polycentric system of governance. This paper summarizes the main fact...

  6. Depression: A Decision-Theoretic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  7. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Daniela Cristina Solomon; Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-01-01

    Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that ...

  8. Measuring Preferences for Cost-Utility Analysis: How Choice of Method May Influence Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    McDonough, Christine M.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.

    2007-01-01

    Preferences for health are required when the economic value of health care interventions are assessed within the framework of cost-utility analysis. The objective of this paper is to review alternative methods for preference measurement and to evaluate the extent to which method may affect health care decision making. Two broad approaches to preference measurement that provide societal health state values are considered: 1) direct measurement and 2) preference-based health state classificatio...

  9. Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrgott, Matthias; Greco, Salvatore

    2010-01-01

    Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents r

  10. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  11. Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

  12. Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis is a report sponsored by the Research Development Statistics department of the Home Office, the UK government department of internal affairs for England and Wales. Researched and written for the purposes of discussion only, this report attempts to examine "migration in the round." It begins with background information including migration theory and trends. Then it offers a look at the current policy framework in the UK concerning the government's objectives in the highest levels and considers the social and economic outcomes of those policies. Finally, the report concludes with suggestions for further research and development. The report is divided into seven main chapters which cover aspects of migration including the economic theory of migration, the myths and realities of post-war migration, and the social and economic impact of UK policies as they relate to both the UK and to the migrants themselves. This well-written report provides an excellent base for those interested in issues involving UK government policies and migration.

  13. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis -- The Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) generated this dataset...

  14. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6) the economic framework. Our modeling framework began with the identification of factors that influence spatial and temporal changes in riparian vegetation on the two rivers. The linked modeling framework was then employed for making spatial predictions of the changes in presence of surface water, vegetation change, and avian populations in both river systems. An overview of the overall project will be provided, with lessons learned, and initial valuation survey results.

  15. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

  16. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  17. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  18. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  19. Environmental and economic assessment methods for waste management decision-support: possibilities and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnveden, Göran; Björklund, Anna; Moberg, Asa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2007-06-01

    A large number of methods and approaches that can be used for supporting waste management decisions at different levels in society have been developed. In this paper an overview of methods is provided and preliminary guidelines for the choice of methods are presented. The methods introduced include: Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Life-cycle Costing, Risk Assessment, Material Flow Accounting, Substance Flow Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Entropy Analysis, Environmental Management Systems, and Environmental Auditing. The characteristics used are the types of impacts included, the objects under study and whether the method is procedural or analytical. The different methods can be described as systems analysis methods. Waste management systems thinking is receiving increasing attention. This is, for example, evidenced by the suggested thematic strategy on waste by the European Commission where life-cycle analysis and life-cycle thinking get prominent positions. Indeed, life-cycle analyses have been shown to provide policy-relevant and consistent results. However, it is also clear that the studies will always be open to criticism since they are simplifications of reality and include uncertainties. This is something all systems analysis methods have in common. Assumptions can be challenged and it may be difficult to generalize from case studies to policies. This suggests that if decisions are going to be made, they are likely to be made on a less than perfect basis. PMID:17612327

  20. Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas / Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Paulo Roberto de, Sant' anna; Orlando Celso, Longo; Francisco Marcelo, Barone; Carlos José Guimarães, Cova; Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de, Oliveira.

    1589-16-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstraçõ [...] es financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for manag [...] ers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

  1. Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto de Sant'anna

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstrações financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão.This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for managers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

  2. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro, Gomes; Luís Alberto Duncan, Rangel; Priscila Pereira, Fernandes.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it [...] necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  3. Bridging the gap: exploring the barriers to using economic evidence in healthcare decision making and strategies for improving uptake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merlo, Gregory; Page, Katie; Ratcliffe, Julie; Halton, Kate; Graves, Nicholas

    2015-06-01

    Evidence from economic evaluations is often not used to inform healthcare policy despite being well regarded by policy makers and physicians. This article employs the accessibility and acceptability framework to review the barriers to using evidence from economic evaluation in healthcare policy and the strategies used to overcome these barriers. Economic evaluations are often inaccessible to policymakers due to the absence of relevant economic evaluations, the time and cost required to conduct and interpret economic evaluations, and lack of expertise to evaluate quality and interpret results. Consistently reported factors that limit the translation of findings from economic evaluations into healthcare policy include poor quality of research informing economic evaluations, assumptions used in economic modelling, conflicts of interest, difficulties in transferring resources between sectors, negative attitudes to healthcare rationing, and the absence of equity considerations. Strategies to overcome these barriers have been suggested in the literature, including training, structured abstract databases, rapid evaluation, reporting checklists for journals, and considering factors other than cost effectiveness in economic evaluations, such as equity or budget impact. The factors that prevent or encourage decision makers to use evidence from economic evaluations have been identified, but the relative importance of these factors to decision makers is uncertain. PMID:25288052

  4. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  5. Economic Evaluation of Computerized Structural Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, P. E.

    1985-01-01

    This completed effort involved a technical and economic study of the capabilities of computer programs in the area of structural analysis. The applicability of the programs to NASA projects and to other users was studied. The applications in other industries was explored including both research and development and applied areas. The costs of several alternative analysis programs were compared. A literature search covered applicable technical literature including journals, trade publications and books. In addition to the literature search, several commercial companies that have developed computerized structural analysis programs were contacted and their technical brochures reviewed. These programs include SDRC I-DEAS, MSC/NASTRAN, SCADA, SUPERSAP, NISA/DISPLAY, STAAD-III, MICAS, GTSTRUDL, and STARS. These programs were briefly reviewed as applicable to NASA projects.

  6. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.

  7. THE INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENS IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMICAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian?Lucian Kanovici

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The economical and financial crisis that broke out in the United States of America and that rapidly extended at international level, has affected, in the context of a globalized world, both solid economies from the Centre and Western Europe and the more fragile economies that are still in transition from the space of South?Eastern Europe and especially the Western Balkans. The lack of an effective involvement of the citizens from the Balkans in the decision making process at local and central level has represented, for the last 20 years, one of the important causes that allowed the level of the reforms carried out in this state to be an incipient one. As a consequence, in the present time, against some alarming economical realities and some economical indicators that show an increase of the number of unemployed people, it becomes necessary to have a drastic reduction of foreign investments or an increase of the public debt level as a percentage from the domestic gross productand an involvement of the citizens and of the specialists from various areas in the drafting and the implementation of public policies.

  8. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  9. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  10. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis

  11. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  12. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. PMID:24772997

  13. Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Golub, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Practitioners as well as scholars of European integration have for decades debated why it takes so long for the European Union (EU) to adopt legislation and how to improve decision-making efficiency. Four studies have investigated decision-making speed using survival analysis, a particularly appropriate quantitative technique. In this paper I show that all four studies suffer from serious methodological problems that render their conclusions unreliable. I then outline wher...

  14. Sensitivity Analysis for Threshold Decision Making with Dynamic Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Charitos, Theodore; Gaag, Linda C.

    2012-01-01

    The effect of inaccuracies in the parameters of a dynamic Bayesian network can be investigated by subjecting the network to a sensitivity analysis. Having detailed the resulting sensitivity functions in our previous work, we now study the effect of parameter inaccuracies on a recommended decision in view of a threshold decision-making model. We detail the effect of varying a single and multiple parameters from a conditional probability table and present a computational proce...

  15. Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Aleem, Ilyas S.; Hamza Jalal; Aleem, Idris S.; Sheikh, Adeel A.; Mohit Bhandari

    2009-01-01

    Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users t...

  16. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  17. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  18. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  19. EMERGY ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A COMPARATIVE STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our mission at USEPA is to protect human health and safeguard the natural environment. We aim to base our environmental regulations and policies on sound scientific and, where appropriate, economic analyses. Although EPA has conducted analysis of the impact of regulations on ...

  20. THE SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES THROUGH THE REFLECTION OF VALUE INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C?runtu Constantin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The central objective of the article concerned showing in a synthetic manner the main economic-financial indicators in which are reflected the value indicators that characterize the activity of production and marketing. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making it appeal to more deterministic models to analyze the relationship between various indicators characterizing value production and marketing activities. Information obtained and circulated in connection with the exercise of the company's financial function takes the form of indicators, they have become an indispensable business tool for financial and performance of the decision making microeconomic default. Therefore in designing and conducting the financial microeconomic process a special emphasis is placed precisely on the indicator system, built and used for this purpose, as well as practical ways to use them, particularly targeting the control of the process. The purpose of this article is to present the main economic indicators and financial indicators in which are reflected value indicators that characterize the production and marketing activities. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators, will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making an appeal to more deterministic models, to the analysis of the relationship between various value indicators characterizing production and marketing activities. The importance of this article is that it shows how the reflection of value indicators in the economic - financial performances of the company, from which we obtain information essential to economic and financial analysis and diagnosis. In this article we have studied many indicators involved not only in the company's financial activity, but also in its economic activity that ultimately is reflected in the positive or negative results of the company. The results of such analysis can be used to substantiate economic and financial decision making and business management company.

  1. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  2. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  3. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  4. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

  5. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  6. Possibilities of decision trees applications for improvement of quality and economics of foundry production

    OpenAIRE

    Perzyk, M.; Soroczyn?ski, A.; Biernacki, R.

    2008-01-01

    Thc kcy aclivity arcas. rcIatcd to quality and economics of roundry production. arc prescntcd: designing of manurncturing proccsses,control of pmducrion processes as well as analysis of root causcs of pmccss faults and imgutaritics. m prcscntcd. Possihilitics ofutilization of data mining mcrhods, including dccision (classification) trccs typc lcarning systcrns, arc indicated. In partkulnr, t hc rolc ofthat kind of toots in dccision making concerning sclcction or proccss typc and optimum mater...

  7. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  8. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: an item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2015-01-01

    Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn). The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision-making. PMID:25904876

  9. Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

    1988-01-01

    A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

  10. Basic relationships for LTA economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1975-01-01

    Operating costs based on data of actual and proposed airships for conventional lighter than air craft (LTA) are presented. An economic comparison of LTA with the B-47F is included, and possible LTA economic trends are discussed.

  11. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  12. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O’Brien

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

  13. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment. 4 refs., 1 fig

  14. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  15. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  16. A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

    2010-01-01

    To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks. PMID:20821675

  17. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  18. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  19. Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belbase, Shashidhar

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

  20. Water saving vs. farm economics in cotton surface irrigation: an application of multicriteria analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Darouich, Hanna; Gonc?alves, Jose? M.; Muga, Andre?; Pereira, Lui?s Santos

    2012-01-01

    Improving surface irrigation systems for cotton in Ras-El-Ain district, Northeast Syria, needs finding alternative solutions that provide for both water saving and farm economic benefits in a context of small and family farms. Multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate and rank a set of furrow and border irrigation alternatives, with and without precise land leveling, that were created with the decision support system SADREG. This approach allowed to consider various criteria, ma...

  1. Career Decisions from the Decider's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundson, Norman E.; Borgen, William A.; Iaquinta, Maria; Butterfield, Lee D.; Koert, Emily

    2010-01-01

    The authors used a phenomenological research method to investigate the career decision-making experiences of 17 employed adults. Thematic results from interview data analysis were organized within 3 overarching themes: decisions centered on relational life, decisions centered on personal meaning, and decisions centered on economic realities. Study…

  2. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  3. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R?ta Simanavi?ien?

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  4. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the pecision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor design with respect to a LOCA in light of acceptance criteria. What is the intent of the acceptance criteria? The LOCA is a design basis accident. That is, in principle, the reactor incurs a failure (such as a pipe break) that results in a loss of coolant; all other reactor systems operate as designed. The question is whether the reactor system as designed precludes fuel cladding failure, and, thereby, prevents a release of radiation. The decision rule with regard to cladding failure (and, thereby, reactor design acceptance) is specified through three criteria: peak cladding temperature (PCT), maximum local cladding oxidation (MLO) and core-wide cladding oxidation (CWO). The numerical values of these criteria reflect the material properties of the specific fuel element cladding and reactor coolant of the design under consideration. Throughout, for simplicity of illustration, only one acceptance criterion it is assumed, that of PCT and refer to it as LPCT. The extension to more than one numerical acceptance criterion is, in principle, straightforward. It is shown that, there are two fundamental issues with regard to the validity of the decision made under uncertainty with the best-estimate analyses as described here: A. The sample on which the decision is based is a random sample and a legitimate representation of the population with regard to the decision; B. The statistical inference is based on a statistic that has the correct physical interpretation for the problem at hand, such as the tolerance interval. We concentrated here primarily on the second of the two. There are no outstanding issues with regard to the validity of the statistical techniques. They are based on mathematical theorems and proven, as opposed to validated. On the other hand, the sample is the result of a deterministic calculation. The correctness of each observation in the sample depends on the validity of the thermal-hydraulic models; the numerical discretization of the models; and the solution algorithm. These have been and still are the central is

  5. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  6. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

  7. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  8. PROVE-IT trial: economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona de Portu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the PROVE-IT (“Intensive versus moderate lipid lowering with statins after acute coronary syndromes” was a comparison of pravastatin 40 mg/die versus atorvastatin 80 mg/die in patients with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of pravastatin in Italian patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: the analysis is conducted on the basis of clinical outcomes of the PROVE-IT study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of pravastatin (40 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (number of deaths and frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 24 months. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of pravastatin or atorvastatin therapy over the 2 years period amounted to approximately 664.684 millions euro and 909.006 euro per 1,000 patients respectively. Atorvastatin was more efficacious compared to pravastatin and the overall cost of care per 1,000 patients over 24 months of follow-up was estimated at 2.58 millions euro in the pravastatin and 2.57 millions euro in the atorvastatin group, resulting into a cost saving of about 11.000 euro. Discussion: this study demonstrates that high dose atorvastatin treatment leads to a reduction of direct costs for the National Health System. Atorvastatin therapy is dominant since it is both less costly and more effective than pravastatin. Results were sensitive to either clinical or economic variables.

  9. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Dong-Hong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing F = e3.760348 x Q0.571771 x V0.425999 x eu. That is, for the marketing force, Output elasticity of marketing flow and flow rate were determined as 0.571771 and 0.425999.

  10. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Dong-Hong; Wang Jing-Si

    2013-01-01

    In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum ent...

  11. Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

  12. A game theoretical analysis of economic sanction

    OpenAIRE

    Shidiqi, khalifany ash; Pradiptyo, rimawan

    2011-01-01

    Economic sanction has been widely used and increasingly a popular tool in maintaining peace and political stability in the world. The use of economic sanction, as opposed to the use of military power, to punish target countries have been supported by the Charter of United Nations (UN). Tsebelis (1990) modelled economic sanctions using game theory and found that any attempt to increase the severity of the sanctions was counterintuitive, namely the policy reduced the likelihood of sender countr...

  13. An Economic Analysis of Security Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Brück, Tilman

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key public policy trade-offs are outlined, in particular between se...

  14. Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SvenjaSimon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  15. An Economic Analysis of the Language Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Burton A.

    1983-01-01

    Examples of linguistic deficiencies in the economics language system are identified, and several changes in present institutional arrangements are considered as possible Pareto efficient moves. (Author/RM)

  16. Economic factorial analysis: general theory and original approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Chebotarev Sergei

    2003-01-01

    This research work is about the methodology of economic factorial analysis, which is an actual instrument for the analysis of different economic and technological models. The acceptance of control solutions becomes the result of model?s study in this case. This fact defines the importance of this unit for the analysis of systems. It is possible to realise the different numerical experiments on simulation of different processes and their following analysis using the methods received in the co...

  17. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  18. How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koçak, Özgecan; Özcan, Serden

    2013-01-01

    Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

  19. Modelos de decisão para avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde / Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Patrícia Coelho de, Soárez; Marta Oliveira, Soares; Hillegonda Maria Dutilh, Novaes.

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A maioria das avaliações econômicas que participam dos processos de decisão de incorporação e financiamento de tecnologias dos sistemas de saúde utiliza modelos de decisão para avaliar os custos e benefícios das estratégias comparadas. Apesar do grande número de avaliações econômicas conduzidas no B [...] rasil, há necessidade de aprofundamento metodológico sobre os tipos de modelos de decisão e sua aplicabilidade no nosso meio. O objetivo desta revisão de literatura é contribuir para o conhecimento e o uso de modelos de decisão nos contextos nacionais das avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde. Este artigo apresenta definições gerais sobre modelos e preocupações com o seu uso; descreve os principais modelos: árvore de decisão, Markov, microssimulação, simulação de eventos discretos e dinâmicos; discute os elementos envolvidos na escolha do modelo; e exemplifica os modelos abordados com estudos de avaliação econômica nacionais de tecnologias preventivas e de programas de saúde, diagnósticas e terapêuticas. Abstract in english Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a [...] pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  20. Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

  1. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as wealysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to forego reusing recoverable nuclear fuel, and thus reprocessing, in the long run

  2. Economics, ethics and technology. Decision-taking bases for projects with long-term effects on the environment. Technikfolgen, Oekonomie und Ethik. Entscheidungsgrundlagen fuer Projekte mit langfristigen Umweltauswirkungen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogai, D.

    1989-01-01

    The author's intention is to provide normative decision-taking bases for the assessment of projects with long-term effects on the environment by combining economic, ethical and social-philosophical approaches. The assessment principles of the cost/benefit analysis are discussed for their suitability for the assessment of such projects; alternative criteria of the decision-taking theory are also discussed. The study focusses on the identification of just principles to be applied in the handling of our vital natural resources. The author combines Rawl's contract theory approach with Kant's rationale for norms to determine minimum standards for the use of resources between the generations. However, a democratic process will have to make the choice between the different assessment methods eventually. (HSCH).

  3. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  4. Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Decision Support Systems: The Context of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fairouz Mosleh Aldhmour

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available  This research aimed to examine the main factors that influence the successful adoption of Decision SupportSystems (DSS in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA. It investigated a set of factors which are;System Characteristics (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU & Perceived usefulness (PU, Technical Aspects(information technology infrastructure & information systems interoperability, and Organizational Aspects (topmanagement support (TMS, management style (MS, & organizational structure (OS.A questionnaire was distributed to a sample of (161 respondents to collect primary data, & based on aconvenience sample the response rate was about 79%. Furthermore, the findings were analyzed using theStatistical Package for Social Software (SPSS, with an R2 of 35.3%, linear Multiple Regression analysis revealedthat all research variables have significant effect on successful adoption of DSS.The results indicated that PU & IT infrastructures have a positive & significant influence on the successfuladoption of DSS. Whereas, PEOU, IS interoperability, TMS, MS, & OS have no significant influence on thesuccessful adoption of DSS. Finally, the findings indicated that no significant statistical differences existedbetween respondents’ perceptions towards DSS adoption in terms of their demographic characteristics. Based onthe research findings & conclusions, a number of recommendations & future research suggestions are proposed.

  5. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  6. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GEOTIFF V1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS GeoTIFF -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  7. Do economic policymakers practice what they preach? : the case of pension decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Dahan, Momi; Kogut, Tehila; Shalem, Moshe

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines whether policymakers, economists at the Israeli Finance Ministry, act in their personal pension decisions in accordance with the rational behaviour assumptions underlying the pension policies they advance. We find that while economists' decisions regarding three other important decisions such as buying an apartment, a car and a large appliance, are largely in line with rational models, pension decisions deviate significantly from these models. A large share of these policy...

  8. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  9. How do economic evaluations inform health policy decisions for treatment and prevention in Canada and the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husereau, Don; Culyer, Anthony J; Neumann, Peter; Jacobs, Philip

    2015-06-01

    Canadian and US health systems have often been characterized as having vastly different approaches to the financing and delivery of healthcare, with Canada portrayed as more reliant on rationing based on costs. In this article, we examine the similarities and differences between the two countries, the evolution and current role of health economic evaluation, and the roles played by health economists. We suggest both countries have similarly used economic evaluation to a limited extent for drug and immunization decisions, with variability in use more of a reflection of the incompleteness of both systems and their inherent institutional barriers rather than political ideology. PMID:25316309

  10. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    OpenAIRE

    Waal, A., van der; T Ritchey

    2007-01-01

    Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combinin...

  11. Economics 14.12: Lecture 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhamet Yildiz

    Lecture notes for a lesson at MIT on game theoretical approaches to decision making, including decision making with uncertain information and analysis of risk. The lesson primarily covers game theory and not economic applications.

  12. Economic analysis of geothermal heat source for residential area project

    OpenAIRE

    Poberz?nik, Sas?o; Goric?anec, Darko; Krope, Jurij

    2012-01-01

    The article discusses the economic analysis of heat source for residential area project. The energy source is geothermal energy. Every house has its own borehole heat exchanger (BHE) and heat pump in basement. In this system low temperature floor and wall heating was carried out. The economic analysis was performed as a pilot study for real system with all installation needed to runthe system. The analysis has been done using the method of the net present value. In the research the coefficien...

  13. THE ROLE OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDIAN MARKET AN INDIAN PROSPECTIVE

    OpenAIRE

    Shashikanth S. Kalashetty

    2014-01-01

    Managerial economics is the application of the economic concepts and economic analysis to the problems of formulating rational managerial decisions". It is sometimes referred to as business economics and is a branch of economics that applies microeconomic analysis to decision methods of businesses or other management units. As such, it bridges economic theory and economics in practice. It draws heavily from quantitative techniques such as regression analysis, correlation a...

  14. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fuad M. Kreishan

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between...

  15. Upcycling wastes with biogas production: : An exergy and economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Michael; Parsapour, Amin

    2012-01-01

    The massive consumption of finite resources creates high economical and environmental costs due to material dispersion and waste generation. In order to overcome this, by-products and wastes may be used, to avoid the use of virgin materials and benefit from the useful inherent energy of the material. By adding value to the material, economic and environmental performance can be improve, which is called upcycling. In this paper, an exergy and economic analysis of a biogas process is examined. ...

  16. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  17. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salicylic acid and cryotherapy for cutaneous warts: an economic decision model

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, K. S.; Keogh-brown, M. R.; Chalmers, J. R.; Fordham, R. J.; Holland, R. C.; Armstrong, S. J.; Bachmann, M. O.; Howe, A. H.; Rodgers, S.; Avery, A. J.; Harvey, I.; Williams, H. C.

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate the costs of commonly used treatments for cutaneous warts, as well as their health benefits and risk. To create an economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatments, and, as a result, assess whether a randomised controlled trial (RCT) would be feasible and cost-effective. Data sources: Focus groups, structured interviews and observation of practice. Postal survey sent to 723 patients. A recently updated Cochrane syst...

  18. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  19. Decision-making for south Florida water resources: ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukop, M. C.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water, sustainability, and climate issues faced by South Florida are complex and pressing. There are multiple competing water demands, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR), and exposure to climate variability that expose the region to a unique severity and diversity of challenges. This project is investigating strategies for the optimization of water use over a 50-year time horizon. The basis for optimization is hydro-economic and seeks to incorporate the value of ecosystem services - especially fisheries and carbon dynamics - in south Florida, along with more traditional agricultural, industrial, and urban economic drivers. Behavioral aspects of water management and land use planning decision-making under different potential future scenarios are also being studied. In particular, how individuals' perceptions of risks to the water supply differ, and how these differences influence their decisions when faced with an uncertain future, such as the one faced by south Floridians due to uncertainty about sea level rise. Experiments will determine how information type and uncertainty levels impact decisions made by individuals and stakeholder groups. The results of the experiments will be used to devise more effective decision-making forums that foster more widespread support of regional water management plans.

  20. Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    He?raud, Jean-alain; Ionescu, Oana

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly ...

  1. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gnip

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  2. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    OpenAIRE

    P. Gnip; S. Kafka; J. ?epický; K. Charvát

    2009-01-01

    The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  3. Análise de decisões sobre uso de tecnologia: um estudo no setor de telefonia móvel fundamentado nos axiomas da economia comportamental / Analysis of decisions on the use of technology: a study in the mobile telephone sector grounded in the axioms of behavioral economics

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Alexandre, Cappellozza; Otavio Prospero, Sanchez.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A Economia Comportamental, campo que recebeu grandes contribuições de Kahneman e Tversky e que rendeu um prêmio Nobel ao primeiro, é uma abordagem que se tem ocupado em caracterizar e analisar variados aspectos do comportamento decisório humano, descrevendo-o como não plenamente racional. Sua import [...] ância está em questionar a racionalidade da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada, TUE, aceito por décadas como modelo fundamental na economia. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar como as decisões sobre a adoção e uso de equipamentos e serviços apoiados por tecnologia são afetadas pelos aspectos influenciadores da decisão, preconizados por Kahneman e Tversky. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido por meio de experimento adaptado ao contexto do segmento de telefonia móvel, setor esse escolhido pela sua relevância nos últimos anos na economia brasileira. Os dados foram analisados por técnicas de comparação de grupos com variáveis categóricas. Os resultados permitiram evidenciar vários aspectos da não-racionalidade dos decisores conforme apregoado pelos autores originais, especialmente em relação a aspectos contidos na chamada Teoria dos Prospectos (Prospect Theory). A partir das descobertas, pode-se questionar decisões sobre a utilização de tecnologia no nível do indivíduo e organizações, com importantes conseqüências no nível gerencial. Abstract in english Behavioral economics, a field that has received major contributions from Kahneman and Tversky, the former also having received a Nobel prize, is an approach that has focused on a number of aspects of behavior in human decisions, defining their outcomes as not being fully rational. Its main contribut [...] ion was conquered by questioning the so far very well established Utility Theory, a very important basis in economics. This article aims to verify how decisions concerning the adoption and use of information technology are potentially affected by the factors described in Kahneman and Tversky's theory. This was done by means of an experiment adapted to the context of the mobile communications sector, which was chosen due to its economic and social relevance in recent years in Brazil. The data were analyzed by means of categorical group comparison techniques. The results provided evidence of non-rational behavior amongst decision makers as proposed by original authors, mainly those regarding aspects of the Prospect Theory. With this evidence, it is possible to question a number of aspects of individual and organizational decisions involving the use of information technology use, with important implications at the managerial levels.

  4. Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

  5. Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

  6. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  7. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  8. Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Li, Xun-Gui; Wei, Xia; Huang, Qiang.

    Full Text Available Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability r [...] isk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and experimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

  9. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  10. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia is to establish a nuclear research facility. Selection of a research reactor type for such a case is not an easy task. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors are selected for this study. These are: the University of Michigan Ford Nuclear Reactor (FNR), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), Georgia Institute of Technology Research Reactor (GTRR), and University of Wisconsin Nuclear Reactor (UWNR). The IFDA computer code, which based on the fuzzy set theory is applied here. The results show that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best

  11. Essays in Experimental Economics and the Improvement of Judgment and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Van Geen, Alexandra Vivien

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation presents essays on the relationship between judgment and de- cision making and public policy, with a focus on gender diversity. The gender difference in career advancement is the likely result both of decisions made on the supply side (i.e. female and male job candidates) as well as decisions on the demand side (i.e. evaluators). These essays explore the behavioral foundations of decision making processes on both sides, and also make recommendations on how to use these behav...

  12. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts ated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  13. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nicole M.; Sera, Maria D.; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P.

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of “cognitive entropy” were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured “chunking” of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  14. Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Dixon

    1990-03-01

    Full Text Available Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints Economic analysis of environmental and natural resource mgement problems is receiving increasing attention. Whether the concern is with traditional pollution related issues, especially of air and water in urban areas, or with more complex natural resource management problems in rural areas, economists are increasingly being called upon to conduct analysis and offer policy advice for meeting these needs. This paper discusses the evolution of economic analysis of environmental concerns and considers some of the constraints to and opportunities for expanded economic analysis of environmental pmblems. Experience from both developing and developed countries is used to illustrate various points and an assessment of recent experience is offered.

  15. Methods for the analysis of economic efficiency of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This theme contains a description and detailed explanations of the various economic efficiency computations used in practice, taking into account a number of peculiarities of the analysis of investments and rationalization measures in commercial energy. 4 refs., tabs

  16. Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Adamopoulos

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

  17. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  18. The sensitivity analysis of the economic and economic statistical designs of the synthetic X¯ chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeong, Wai Chung; Khoo, Michael Boon Chong; Chong, Jia Kit; Lim, Shun Jinn; Teoh, Wei Lin

    2014-12-01

    The economic and economic statistical designs allow the practitioner to implement the control chart in an economically optimal manner. For the economic design, the optimal chart parameters are obtained to minimize the cost, while for the economic statistical design, additional constraints in terms of the average run length is imposed. However, these designs involve the estimation of quite a number of input parameters. Some of these input parameters are difficult to estimate accurately. Thus, a sensitivity analysis is required in order to identify which parameters need to be estimated accurately, and which requires just a rough estimation. This study focuses on the significance of 11 input parameters toward the optimal cost and average run lengths of the synthetic ¯X chart. The significant input parameters are identified through a two-level fractional factorial design, which allows interaction effects to be identified. An analysis of variance is performed to obtain the P-values by using the Minitab software. The significant input parameters and interactions on the optimal cost and average run lengths are identified based on a 5% significance level. The results of this study show that the input parameters which are significant towards the economic design may not be significant for the economic statistical design, and vice versa. This study also shows that there are quite a number of significant interaction effects, which may mask the significance of the main effects.

  19. Journal interaction. A bibliometric analysis of economics journals

    OpenAIRE

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2005-01-01

    Citation analysis is widely used as an evaluation method within sciences. This paper seeks to qualify citation analyses by adding insight into the sciences under investigation. The paper presents a method of citation analysis using multiple linear regressions on both cited and citing economic journals. The proposed method controls for the different characteristics of the journals as well as for their degree of interaction. The paper shows some of the hidden structures within the economic scie...

  20. Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Regression Analysis ?????????? ? ????????????? ????: ????????????? ??????

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goridko Nina P.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mutual influence for a share of government expenditures in GDP and a real GDP value as an indicator of economic growth. The invented regression models for the relationship of those indicators for the economies of China and Ukraine perform the grade of effectiveness for government funds using.? ?????? ??????????????? ??????????? ???? ??????????????? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ????????? ??? ??? ?????????? ?????????????? ?????. ????????? ????????????? ?????? ??????????? ???? ??????????? ??? ???????? ????? ? ???????, ?????? ????????????? ?? ????????????? ????????????? ??????????????? ???????.

  1. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ...Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS...Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS...CADDIS, which is a web-based decision support system that will help...them to update and access a database of supporting...

  2. Integrating Cognitive Mapping Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding

    OpenAIRE

    Kpoumie?, Amidou; Damart, Se?bastien; Tsoukia?s, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a process implying two distinctive actors (the client and the analyst) which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations, taking into account values of decision makers involved in a specific decision context. The theoretical framework of MCDA traditionally addresses problems involving a single decision maker. However, MCDA ought to investigate the case where the decision maker is made up of groups of individuals w...

  3. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  4. Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Merková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

  5. Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

    2008-01-01

    The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

  6. Image data integration and analysis for natural disaster decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, William E.

    2001-06-01

    Natural disasters have a major impact, globally and within the United States causing injury and loss of life, as well as economic losses. To better address disaster response needs, a task force has been established to leverage technological capabilities to improve disaster response management. Web based geospatial analysis is one of these important capabilities. Samples of geospatial technologies applicable to disaster management are presented. These include 3D visualization, hyperspectral imagery, LIDAR, use of spectral libraries, digital multispectral video, radar imaging systems, photogeologic analysis and geographic information systems. An example scenario of a hurricane with landfall at Mobile, Alabama is used to demonstrate the interoperable use of web-based geospatial information to support decision support systems and assist public information communication.

  7. Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Ag through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

  8. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  9. The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at thxclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is

  10. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

  11. Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

  12. Ecological-Economic Analysis of Wetlands

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, R.K.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Barendregt, A; Maltby, E.

    1998-01-01

    Wetlands all over the world have been lost or are threatened in spite of various international agreements and national policies. This is caused by: (1) the public nature of many wetlands products and services; (2) user externalities imposed on other stakeholders; and (3) policy intervention failures that are due to a lack of consistency among government policies in different areas (economics, environment, nature protection, physical planning, etc.). All three causes are related to information...

  13. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  14. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  15. An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Chinnammai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

  16. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  17. Analysis of Political Decision-Making and Its Influencing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing YAN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Political decision-making means a country’s political parties, leaders or leadership compare and select implementing principles and approaches and means to achieve the target in political practical activities for the purpose, principles and direction of activities. The process of political decision-making is a dynamic political process that is related to the formation and implementation of major and general decisions of the national, political and social interest groups. This process is to integrate major and general decisions regarding national and social interests. The subjects are state organs, political parties and individual decision makers or decision-making participants, and the finally formed decision is backed by the country’s coercive power with mandatory features. Meanwhile, political decision-making is influenced by system pressure. In the decision-making process, there will be a certain degree of bias between the final decision and the targeted decision.

  18. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  19. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process

  20. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

  1. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  2. Possibilities of decision trees applications for improvement of quality and economics of foundry production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perzyk

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Thc kcy aclivity arcas. rcIatcd to quality and economics of roundry production. arc prescntcd: designing of manurncturing proccsses,control of pmducrion processes as well as analysis of root causcs of pmccss faults and imgutaritics. m prcscntcd. Possihilitics ofutilization of data mining mcrhods, including dccision (classification trccs typc lcarning systcrns, arc indicated. In partkulnr, t hc rolc ofthat kind of toots in dccision making concerning sclcction or proccss typc and optimum materials and paramctcrs as wcll as inidcntificarion of proccss cxccssivc variations. similarly likc with thc control charts, arc discusd. Evalltazion rcs11Its of classilica~ionsystems form rhc viewpoint of thcir applicability, accuracy and soflwarc avnilabiliky arc pmscntcd, including dccision zrccs, naivcBayesian cla~sificr.r ough scls thcoty, d~rcctn zlc induction mcthods as wctl as artificial neural networks. In the [inal part of t hc papcr aknowledge in ~ h fcor m nllcs oblainctl form classification trces is dcmonslntcd using thc cxamplc of dccision making related to applicationor riscss for grcy casr imn castings.

  3. ArgMax: Economics News, Data, and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Created by John Irons, an assistant professor of economics at Amherst, the ArgMax Web site (named after a mathematical terms utilized in economics) provides a host of current news, data, and topical analysis of economics. Updated frequently by a newsbot, the news and commentary section is divided into several themed sections and drawn from a wide number of online sources. After reading some of these articles, visitors may want to consult the online economics glossary that offers brief explanations of terms ranging from absolute advantage to wire transfer. Another section contains the blog that Irons writes for the site and various articles of interest. The seemingly innocuous "Stuff" section contains some nice gems, including an interview with Irons about becoming involved in the field of economics. Overall, the site is a nice way for people who are familiar (or just getting acquainted) with the discipline. [KMG

  4. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  5. INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-lin MIAO; FENG Jun-wen; Ju BAI

    2007-01-01

    Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to giving a dir...

  6. Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Cris?an, Liviu G.; Pana?, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M.; Szekely, Raluca; Druga?, Bogdan; Dragos?, Nicolae; Miu, Andrei C.

    2009-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and susceptibility to framing in decision making under uncertainty, as well as multidimensional anxiety and autonomic control of the heart in healthy volunteers. The present results indicate that in comparis...

  7. The effects of background music and sound in economic decision making: Evidence from a laboratory experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Fujikawa, Takemi; Kobayashi, Yohei

    2010-01-01

    This paper experimentally studies the effects of background music and sound on the preference of the decision makers for rewards in pairwise intertemporal choice tasks and lottery choice tasks. The participants took part in the current experiment, involving four treatments: (1) the familiar music treatment; (2) the unfamiliar music treatment; (3) the noise treatment and (4) the no music treatment. The experimental results confirm that background noise affects human performance in decision mak...

  8. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    OpenAIRE

    Courtney MR; Spivey C; Km, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behav...

  9. Helping patients make choices about breast reconstruction: a decision analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Clement S; Cantor, Scott B; Reece, Gregory P; Fingeret, Michelle C; Crosby, Melissa A; Markey, Mia K

    2014-10-01

    Decision analysis can help breast reconstruction patients and their surgeons to methodically evaluate clinical alternatives and make hard decisions. The purpose of this article is to help plastic surgeons guide patients in making decisions though a case study in breast reconstruction. By making good decisions, patient outcomes may be improved. This article aims to illustrate decision analysis techniques from the patient perspective, with an emphasis on her values and preferences. The authors introduce normative decision-making through a fictional breast reconstruction patient and systematically build the decision basis to help her make a good decision. The authors broadly identify alternatives of breast reconstruction, propose types of outcomes that the patient should consider, discuss sources of probabilistic information and outcome values, and demonstrate how to make a good decision. The concepts presented here may be extended to other shared decision-making problems in plastic and reconstructive surgery. In addition, the authors discuss how sensitivity analysis may test the robustness of the decision and how to evaluate the quality of decisions. The authors also present tools to help implement these concepts in practice. Finally, the authors examine limitations that hamper adoption of patient decision analysis in reconstructive surgery and health care in general. In particular, the authors emphasize the need for routine collection of quality-of-life information, out-of-pocket expense, and recovery time. PMID:25357022

  10. Evaluating Biosurveillance System Components using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generous, Eric Nicholas; Deshpande, Alina; Brown, Mac; Castro, Lauren; Margevicius, Kristen; Daniel, William Brent; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has traditionally been limited to the field of operations research, however many of the tools and methods developed for MCDA can also be applied to biosurveillance. Our project demonstrates the utility of MCDA for this purpose by applying it to the evaluation of data streams for use in an integrated, global biosurveillance system. Introduction The evaluation of biosurveillance system components is a complex, multi-objective decision that requires consideration of a variety of factors. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis provides a methodology to assist in the objective analysis of these types of evaluation by creating a mathematical model that can simulate decisions. This model can utilize many types of data, both quantitative and qualitative, that can accurately describe components. The decision-maker can use this model to determine which of the system components best accomplish the goals being evaluated. Before MCDA can be utilized effectively, an evaluation framework needs to be developed. We built a robust framework that identified unique metrics, surveillance goals, and priorities for metrics. Using this framework, we were able to use MCDA to assist in the evaluation of data streams and to determine which types would be of most use within a global biosurveillance system. Methods MCDA was implemented using the Logical Decisions® software. The construction of the evaluation framework was carried out in several steps: identification and definition of data streams, metrics and surveillance goals, and the determination of the relative importance of each metric to the respective surveillance goal being evaluated. Sixteen data streams types were defined and identified for evaluation from a survey we conducted that collected over 200 surveillance products. A subject matter expert (SME) panel was assembled to help identify the biosurveillance goals and metrics in which to evaluate the data streams. To assign values for the metrics, we referenced properties of data streams used in currently operational systems. Results Our survey identified sixteen different classes of data streams: Ambulance Records, Clinic/Health Care Provider Records, ED/Hospital Records, Employment/School Records, Established Databases, Financial Records, Help Lines, Internet Search Queries, Laboraotry Records, News Aggregators, Official Reports, Police/Fire Department Records, Personal Communication, Prediction Markets, Sales, and Social Media. Four biosurveillance goals were identified: Early Warning of Health Threats, Early Detection of Health Events, Situational Awareness, and Consequence Management. Eleven metrics were identified: Accessibility, Cost, Credibility, Flexibility, Integrability, Geographic/Population Coverage, Granularity, Specificity of Detection, Sustainability, Time to Indication, and Timeliness. Using the framework, it was possible to use MCDA to rank the utility of each data stream for each goal. Conclusions The results suggest that a “one size fits all” approach does not work and that there is no ideal data stream that is most useful for each goal. Data streams that scored more highly for speed tended to rank more highly when the biosurveillance goal is early warning or early detection, whereas data streams that scored more highly for data credibility and geographic/population coverage ranked highly when the goal was situational awareness or consequence management. However, there are several data streams that rank consistently within the top 5 for each goal: Internet Search Queries, News Aggregators, Clinic/Health Care Provider records, ED/Hospital Records, and Laboratory Records and may be considered useful for integrated, global biosurveillance for infectious disease. Table 1 Early Warning of Health Threats Early Detection of Health Events Situational Awareness Consequence Management 1. Internet Search Queries 1. News Aggregators 1. Laboratory Records 1. ED/Hospital Records 2. News Aggregators 2. Internet Search Queries 2. ED/Hospital Records 1. Clinic/H

  11. Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-05-01

    In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. PMID:23021947

  12. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so called naive scenario and a risk-averse scenario, are evaluated in this case study.

  13. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  14. MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VENUGOPAL .B. S

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

  15. Antieigenvalue Analysis, New Applications: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, Number Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafson, Karl

    2015-01-01

    My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory.

  16. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  17. Change of Guard for Economic Analysis and Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Dulleck, Uwe; Torgler, Benno; Wilson, Clevo

    2008-01-01

    It is with great pleasure and enthusiasm that we took over the editorship of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) in 2008. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch). In this note, we would like to highlight the changes that we have made to the journal. We hope and believe that these changes will enable EAP to move forward, increase its readership, move towards an impact factor and contribute to economic policy as well as the academic and industry discussions at...

  18. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  19. Satellite power system: Engineering and economic analysis summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    A system engineering and economic analysis was conducted to establish typical reference baselines for the photovoltaic, solar thermal, and nuclear satellite power systems. Tentative conclusions indicate that feasibility and economic viability are characteristic of the Satellite Power System. Anticipated technology related to manufacturing, construction, and maintenance operations is described. Fuel consumption, environmental effects, and orbital transfer are investigated. Space shuttles, local space transportation, and the heavy lift launch vehicle required are also discussed.

  20. Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Horacio Alfredo Gil; José Manuel Cisneros; Jorge Dante de Prada; José Omar Plevich; Angel Ramon Sanchez Delgado

    2013-01-01

    Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT) are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT) based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued ...

  1. Economic factorial analysis: general theory and original approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chebotarev Sergei

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This research work is about the methodology of economic factorial analysis, which is an actual instrument for the analysis of different economic and technological models. The acceptance of control solutions becomes the result of model?s study in this case. This fact defines the importance of this unit for the analysis of systems. It is possible to realise the different numerical experiments on simulation of different processes and their following analysis using the methods received in the course of research of static and dynamical factorial analysis. The given analytical tool is widely used in practice. Author has carried out the research using the methods of factorial analysis in conditions of real production on one of the largest metallurgical plant of Europe. This fact also confirms a practical importance of factorial analysis.

  2. Decision Making in Darkness: an Analysis of Initial Decision Making Prerequisites in Public Projects in Iceland

    OpenAIRE

    Andri Már Reynisson 1985

    2012-01-01

    Large public projects in Iceland suffer from frequent cost overruns. No indications of increased accuracy in estimations over time and with increased experience are visible. These estimations are amongst the foundations or prerequisites of initial decisions of undertaking large public projects, using public funds. Prerequisites for decisions should be reflected in the outcome of the decision, along with other environmental factors that are beyond the control of management. Two of the prere...

  3. Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

    1981-05-01

    The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

  4. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches. PMID:23823331

  5. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

  6. PIEteR: a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing.

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, A. B.

    1996-01-01

    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly experimental sugar beet fields. Its prototype, which only simulated root and sugar yields, was selected through a test on the performance of four models and extended with a number of parameters: sugar content, (K + Na) an...

  7. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

  8. Socio-economic Condition of Child Worker of Bangladesh in Their Adulthood: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Imran Ali Meerza

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has mainly focused on the current socio-economic condition of those people who were child labor in their childhood. In this study, economic indicators are income and employment status. On the other hand, level of education, health status and role in case of decision making in the society are studied as social indicators. According to this study, socio-economic condition of child workers in their adulthood is not very satisfactory. In this research work, we have used Linear Probability Model (LPM and Weighted Least Square (WLS regression analysis to make comparison of current socio-economic status between people who were child labor in their childhood and those who were not child worker in past. We have found that person who was not child worker in early stage of his/her life have higher probability to enjoy better socio-economic condition than that of person who worked as child worker in past. In fact, we have identified that a children who is working as a child worker has 0.61 or 61% probability to have low standard of living in his/her future life.

  9. Economic analysis of vaccination to control bovine brucellosis in the States of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, A J S; Rocha, F; Amaku, M; Ferreira, F; Telles, E O; Grisi Filho, J H H; Ferreira Neto, J S; Zylbersztajn, D; Dias, R A

    2015-03-01

    Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that causes important economic losses in Brazil, and the country has therefore established a national program for its control and eradication. Using data generated in the last national brucellosis survey, we conducted an economic analysis in two Brazilian States with different brucellosis status, Mato Grosso (with high prevalence) and Sao Paulo (with low prevalence). The economic analysis was based on the calculation of the additional benefits and costs of controlling bovine brucellosis through the vaccination of heifers aged between 3 and 8 months with S19 vaccine, considering maximal and minimal impacts of the disease. The analysis showed that vaccinating 90% of the replacement heifers aged 3-8 months of age offers the best economic performance in a vaccination program against bovine brucellosis if compared to vaccination rates of 70% and 80%. Moreover, regions with higher prevalences of bovine brucellosis would experience significant economic advantages when implementing a vaccination strategy to control the disease. This economic analysis will allow decision makers to plan more economically effective vaccination programs. PMID:25548080

  10. The dynamics of economic convergence: the role of alternative investment decisions.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Br?ha, Jan; Podpiera, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ro?. 35, ?. 7 (2011), s. 1032-1044. ISSN 0165-1889 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : two-country modeling * convergence * real exchange rate Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.855, year: 2011

  11. Integrated NPP life management: panel discussion, economic issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The following issues were discussed: Proliferation of Business Literacy; Key Measures of Economic Value; Integration of Safety Reliability and Business Objectives; Application of Business Analysis/Decision Tools

  12. Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

    2015-01-01

    Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics. PMID:25063436

  13. Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, Nicoletta

    2002-04-01

    Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation. PMID:19807328

  14. Decision-making analysis for allergen immunotherapy versus nasal steroids in the treatment of nasal steroid–responsive allergic rhinitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Derek; Christophel, Jared; Borish, Larry; Payne, Spencer

    2014-01-01

    Background: The purpose of the study was to determine the age at which initiation of specific subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) becomes more cost-effective than continued lifetime intranasal steroid (NS) therapy in the treatment of allergic rhinitis, with the use of a decision analysis model. Methods: A Markov decision analysis model was created for this study. Economic analyses were performed to identify “break-even” points in the treatment of allergic rhinitis with the use of SCIT and NS. Efficacy rates for therapy and cost data were collected from the published literature. Models in which there was only incomplete improvement while receiving SCIT were also evaluated for economic break-even points. The primary perspective of the study was societal. Results: Multiple break-even point curves were obtained corresponding to various clinical scenarios. For patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis requiring NS (i.e., fluticasone) 6 months per year, the age at which initiation of SCIT provides long-term direct cost advantage is less than 41 years. For patients with perennial rhinitis symptoms requiring year-round NS, the cut-off age for SCIT cost-effectiveness increases to 60 years. Hypothetical subjects who require continued NS treatment (50% reduction of previous dosage) while receiving SCIT also display break-even points, whereby it is economically advantageous to consider allergy referral and SCIT, dependent on the cost of the NS prescribed. Conclusion: The age at which SCIT provides economic advantages over NS in the treatment of allergic rhinitis depends on multiple clinical factors. Decision analysis models can assist the physician in accounting for these factors and customize patient counseling with regard to treatment options. PMID:24717886

  15. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) either in combination or separated. The MCA module is based on the AHP and SMARTER techniques. COSIMA also handles risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation.

  16. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base ?f ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator – the vulnerability index. Firstly, this index shows in what way the investors’ income changes while decreasing the profits in the sphere of agricultural land use by 1 per cent. Secondly, the above mentioned index defines the desire of investors to be present in agriculture under conditions of irrational use of the land resources. The author estimates investment quality by the criterion of «high – low» and interconnects it with substantiation of investment decisions in agricultural land use. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The author concludes that innovative approaches include the following issues: using of the category «investment quality» helps to raise substantiation of investment attractiveness assessment; the assessment of investment quality is undertaken from the side of each investment strategy which helps to describe motivation issues of investment process; the complex ecologically oriented strategy, offered by the author, is innovative by itself as it is based on the ecological and economic indicators of the investment quality, which has never calculated before. The implementation of such a complex ecologically oriented investment strategy is a subject for further researches.

  17. Decision making in laparoscopic surgery: a prospective, independent and blinded analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Sarker, Sk; Chang, A.; Vincent, C.

    2008-01-01

    AIMS: Correct decision making is pivotal and an integral part of surgical competency. To date there has not been an attempt to assess surgeons making decisions whilst operating. In our present study we aim to assess operative decision making by trainee and expert surgeons by using hierarchical task analysis (HTA) as a method to map out decision making in surgery. METHODS: One hundred and forty live laparoscopic operations were prospectively analyzed, independently and blindly. The operations ...

  18. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRISON SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Ioana GRUIA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a short cost analysis related to the prisoners of Romania in comparison with other countries. The purpose of the article is to present the current situation of the costs and expenditures, the state is taking when imprisoning a delinquent and to draw future lines for the improvement of the prison system and Criminal Code. Data is used from online available governmental sources worldwide and is statistically worked and interpreted. The analysis is corroborated with the laws from the old and new Romanian Criminal Code and conclusions are drawn. The article presents partial results of the author’s yet not published work.

  19. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

  20. School Board Decision Making: An Analysis of the Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crum, Karen S.

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to analyze the characteristics in the school board decision-making process and to discover whether school board members are aware of the characteristics surrounding the school board's decision-making process. Specifically, this study examines the decision-making process of a school board in Virginia, and it provides…

  1. Economic Impacts on the United States of Siting Decisions for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peerenboom, J. P.; Hanson, M. E.; Huddleston, J. R.; Wolsko, T. D.

    1997-12-01

    This paper presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  2. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

  3. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  4. DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC-ORGANISATIONAL ENTITIES OPERATING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IOAN CONSTANTIN DIMA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The complete operating cycle of the organisational economic entity provides a connection between its actions and those actions that take place in the environment where it operates, which are deemed to be natural reactions of the environment to the operation of the organisational economic entity. The way in which the environment reacts to its operation must be understood as being the nature of the relations between events, factors and structures of the environment and not as an answer to what the organisational economic entity does. The same action of the organisational economic entity could therefore determine different environmental reactions to various moments and various actions. This is because organisational economic entities act under the conditions of the restrictions imposed by the environment. There are few cases where these restrictions are not observed and the environment reacts unambiguously. But, most of the time, the operating range is relatively tight, and inside of it only a very low part of it can be assigned to the actions taken by the organisation.

  5. A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AREA HAVING ECONOMICAL IMPLICATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Pribac Loredana Ioana; Anghelina Andrei; Haiduc Cristian

    2013-01-01

    This work presents an economical and statistical analysis regarding the relationship between education and economic growth in the European Union area. In the research process there were used the statistical data provided by several international databases. The research has led to a main conclusion which supports, just as many other studies do, the positive impact that education has on economic growth.

  6. Perfection of a Complex Economic Analysis of Equity Capital ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodnarchuk Anna V.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article scientifically substantiates and proves a necessity of perfection of a complex economic analysis of equity capital, which provides a system approach to analysis of financial stability of a company and increases effectiveness of formation and use of equity capital. It considers and generalises types and tasks of factor analysis of equity capital as one of the stages of complex analysis. It allocates main factors of influence on the effective indicator, and develops a multi-factor model of factor analysis for perfection of the system of management of equity capital.? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ? ???????? ????????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????, ??????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ??????????? ? ???????? ????????????? ???????????? ? ????????????? ???????????? ????????. ??????????? ? ???????? ???? ? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ???????????? ???????? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????????? ???????. ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????????????? ??????????, ? ??? ?????????????????? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ????????? ??????????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????? ???????.

  7. The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdous Alam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

  8. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  9. Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

  10. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  11. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  12. The Role of Interpersonal Traits in Social Decision Making: Exploring Sources of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Economic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Kun; Smillie, Luke D

    2015-08-01

    Economic games are well-established experimental paradigms for modeling social decision making. A large body of literature has pointed to the heterogeneity of behavior within many of these games, which might be partly explained by broad interpersonal trait dispositions. Using the Big Five and HEXACO (Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience) personality frameworks, we review the role of personality in two main classes of economic games: social dilemmas and bargaining games. This reveals an emerging role for Big Five agreeableness in promoting cooperative, egalitarian, and altruistic behaviors across several games, consistent with its core characteristic of maintaining harmonious interpersonal relations. The role for extraversion is less clear, which may reflect the divergent effects of its underlying agentic and affiliative motivational components. In addition, HEXACO honesty-humility and agreeableness may capture distinct aspects of prosocial behavior outside the bounds of the Five-Factor Model. Important considerations and directions for future studies are discussed within the emerging personality-economics interface. PMID:25552474

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major contents in this study are as follows : 1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. 2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. 3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs

  14. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit ob...

  15. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    IngoVernaleken; SusannePrinz; RalfDieterHilgers; OliverHoltemöller

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery parad...

  16. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  17. Neural dynamics of social tie formation in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bault, Nadège; Pelloux, Benjamin; Fahrenfort, Johannes J; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van Winden, Frans

    2015-06-01

    The disposition for prosocial conduct, which contributes to cooperation as arising during social interaction, requires cortical network dynamics responsive to the development of social ties, or care about the interests of specific interaction partners. Here, we formulate a dynamic computational model that accurately predicted how tie formation, driven by the interaction history, influences decisions to contribute in a public good game. We used model-driven functional MRI to test the hypothesis that brain regions key to social interactions keep track of dynamics in tie strength. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex tracked the individual's public good contributions. Activation in the bilateral posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), and temporo-parietal junction was modulated parametrically by the dynamically developing social tie-as estimated by our model-supporting a role of these regions in social tie formation. Activity in these two regions further reflected inter-individual differences in tie persistence and sensitivity to behavior of the interaction partner. Functional connectivity between pSTS and mPFC activations indicated that the representation of social ties is integrated in the decision process. These data reveal the brain mechanisms underlying the integration of interaction dynamics into a social tie representation which in turn influenced the individual's prosocial decisions. PMID:25338630

  18. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

  19. Micro Chart For Concept Area One. Economic Analysis Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for the final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This report covers the microsequencing developed for concept area one. It represents the initial segmentation of the macro…

  20. Analysis of recent Council on Economic Priorities newsletter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Questions relating to the safety of spent fuel shipments were raised by a recent Council on Economic Priorities Newsletter. Specific quotes from the newsletter were grouped into major issue questions and evaluated to determine consistency with available experimental data and analysis

  1. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule. PMID:15020003

  2. The effect of perceived regional accents on individual economic behavior: a lab experiment on linguistic performance, cognitive ratings and economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one's own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant's home region--the in-group opponent--, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  3. The Effect of Perceived Regional Accents on Individual Economic Behavior: A Lab Experiment on Linguistic Performance, Cognitive Ratings and Economic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one’s own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant’s home region—the in-group opponent –, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  4. Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis

  5. Integrated Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework with Application to Forest Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Bizikova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.

  6. Deploying a spreadsheet tool for early economic value assessment of medical device innovations with healthcare decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Craven, Michael P.; Morgan, Stephen P.; Crowe, John A.; Lu, Bo

    2009-01-01

    Early stage evaluation of medical device innovations is important for healthcare decision-makers as much as for manufacturers, meaning that a wider application of a basic cost-effectiveness analysis is becoming necessary outside the usual expert base of health technology assessment specialists. Resulting from an academic-industry-healthcare professional collaboration, a spreadsheet tool is described that was designed to be accessible both to professionals in healthcare delivery organisations ...

  7. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  8. The Decision to Start a New Firm: An Econometric Analysis of Regional Entrepreneurship in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islem Khefacha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the factors that promote or mitigate transitions into self-employment is crucial to regional economic development efforts, while the number of new business created play a significant role to regional economic vitality and represent a major signal of a dynamic economy. We use a new measure of firm formation based on the combination between individual background with effects depending on the regional context in Tunisia such as entrepreneurial human capital and labour force characteristics. Even though some of these factors have been the subject of several entrepreneurship studies, it is still difficult to identify which one impact significantly the decision to create a new firm.As an illustration, the model is estimated using a data provided by the National Tunisian Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM 2010 Project, based on the analysis of a sample of 1966 cases. The main findings of the study show that “competencies” measured by the two variables “knowing someone personally who started a business in the past 2 years” and “presence of good opportunities for starting a business” increase significantly the probability to create a new venture. In addition, we have found that the interaction between these two factors has a positive influence. However, “fear of failure” influences negatively the decision to start up. Finally, some fixed region-specific factors notably the average real wage of a region must be accounted for when estimating regional self-employment relationships. We discuss the implications of our results for policy-makers with useful information in designing and implementing policies to promote enterprise development.

  9. Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using bayesian decision networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Garbolino, P; Taroni, F

    2012-11-30

    Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker--typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client--ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper. PMID:23031501

  10. Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

  11. Quantitative Analysis of Group Decision Making for Complex Engineered Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Broniatowski, David Andre; Coughlin, Joseph F.; Magee, Christopher L.; Yang, Maria

    2009-01-01

    Understanding group decision-making processes is crucial for design or operation of a complex system. Unfortunately, there are few experimental tools that might contribute to the development of a theory of group decision-making by committees of technical experts. This research aims to fills this gap by providing tools based on computational linguistics algorithms that can analyze transcripts of multi-stakeholder decision-making entities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device ap...

  12. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    OpenAIRE

    Harp, Dylan R.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to ...

  13. FUZZY BASED DECISION ANALYSIS IN LAND USE PLANNING

    OpenAIRE

    Baja, Sumbangan

    2013-01-01

    Appropriate land use decisions are vital to achieve optimum productivity of the land and to ensure sustainable land use and environment. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. To achieve this, it requires an effective management of spatial information on the land on which such decisions sh...

  14. To be or not to be - a long term economic decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer's primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada's geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry's willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author's contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs

  15. E3--ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ECONOMICS (SYSTEMS ANALYSIS BRANCH, SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY DIVISION, NRMRL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The E3--Environmental Engineering Economics Program was established to provide environmental scientists and decision makers with a focal point for information on NRMRL activities related to the cost and cost-effectiveness of environmental technologies and risk management methods....

  16. Economic cost analysis in cancer management and its relevance today

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma K

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The global cancer burden has shown a distinct shift in the last two decades and its financial impact can be large, even among patients living in high resource countries, with comprehensive health insurance policies. It is hard to imagine its impact on patients of developing countries where insurance policies exist infrequently and often cost becomes the greatest barrier in availing cancer treatment. It is recognized that these costs include the direct cost of disease treatment and care, indirect costs accrued by the patient and the family, and economic losses to the society as a whole. Economic cost analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis has emerged as a basic tool in the evaluation of health-care practices. To date, these cost data have been collected only sporadically, even in the most developed countries, and there is a great need for incorporating economic cost assessment practices in developing countries, so that patients and their families can access the care adequately. The current review has been done using pubmed and medline search with keywords like cancer, cost-analysis, cost-effectiveness, economic burden, medical cost, etc.

  17. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Exley Catherine E; Steele Jimmy; Holmes Richard D; Donaldson Cam

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, pati...

  18. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    OpenAIRE

    Woelbert E; Goebel R.

    2013-01-01

    Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues) influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior ...

  19. Evaluating the Link between Consumers' Savings Portfolio Decisions, their Inflation Expectations and Economic News

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold, Eva; Dra?ger, Lena; Fritsche, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the microdata from a first cross-section of a new household survey at the University of Hamburg, we analyse if consumers respond to their own inflation expectations and economic news that they have observed recently when they plan to adjust their savings portfolio in the next year. We extract three factors to control for consumers' socio-demographic and personality characteristics. Our estimates from the socio-demographic factors suggest that high education and personal income matte...

  20. Purposeful engineering economics

    CERN Document Server

    Chadderton, Ronald A

    2015-01-01

    This textbook/course supplement stands as a unique and highly original complement to the traditional engineering economics curriculum. Its primarily narrative approach conveys the essence of an “Austrian" economic perspective on cash flow analysis and decision making in engineering, without extensive tables and graphs, and requires very little mathematics. The book’s objective is to add a new perspective to the usual study of cash flow analysis and solely econometric engineering decision making. The author draws on the methodology of the Austrian Economists—a school of economic thought that bases its study of economic phenomena on the interpretation and analysis of the purposeful actions of individuals. The book includes an array of illustrative case studies examined in detail by the author and emphasizes the importance of market processes and price signals to coordinate engineering plans. Purposeful Engineering Economics is an ideal resource for students, teaching faculty, and practicing professional ...

  1. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  2. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  3. Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

  4. Economic analysis for incineration of liquid scintillation counting waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burial of Liquid Scintillation Counting Waste (LSCW) is no longer a viable disposal technique. The disposal site located in South Carolina will no longer accept such liquids, and sites in Nevada and Washington will discontinue acceptance in this decade. The object of this work was to develop a safe, economical alternative method for disposing of LSCW. A portable injection unit (PIU) was developed to inject LSCW directly into existing boiler oil feed lines. Further work on construction and testing can be found in work done by Salas. The project proved that there exists a safe, economical alternative to burial for disposing of LSCW. A large savings in disposal cost can be obtained because the PIU acts as a compactor by disposing of the hazardous waste only. Additional savings are obtained in fuel cost by taking advantage of the LSCW's fuel worth. A complete economic analysis will be discussed

  5. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IngoVernaleken

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  6. Impact of economic growth and financial development on exports: Cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shahbaz, Muhammad; Rahman, Mizanur

    2011-01-01

    The analysis shows cointegration between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results that economic growth and financial development stimulate rate of exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports and exports and economic growth in case of Pakistan.

  7. Decision-Making on International Relations: A Theoretical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Andy Afinotan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the course of everyday running of contemporary political and institutional systems, decision makers are often faced with a great complexity of big and small challenges requiring decisive action in line with laid down principles and rules of behaviour. In the process of trying to satisfy the various corporate interests within an institutional framework, the decision maker is faced with, and often has to choose between various competing policy options. Making use of library research methodology, the paper undertook a careful and critical appraisal of the ways and means by which decision makers arrive at basic decisions in the dynamic field of international politics, with a view to discovering basic consistencies that can form a basis for an understanding of the theory of decision making, in a descriptive explanatory and predictive perspective. The paper concluded that, since the decision making environment does not always manifest openness and popular participation, the ultimate decision maker’s sense of objectivity cannot always be guaranteed. 

  8. Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

  9. Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udude Celina C

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

  10. [Emergy analysis of ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hao; Wang, Qing; Li, Xiu-Juan; Song, Yang; Li, Guang-Jun

    2008-03-01

    By the methods of emergy analysis, this paper studied the emergy flow in the ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province in 1990-2005, and the relationships between the environmental stress caused by resources' input, output and consumption and the sustainable development of the Province. The results showed that in Liaoning Province, the non-renewable resources occupied over 74% of the total consumed emergy, and the realistic population in 2005 was 3.26 times higher than the supportable population. In 1990-2005, the emergy yield ratio decreased from 65.40 to 10.13, emergy loading ratio increased from 2.72 to 7.18, and emergy sustainable index decreased from 24.03 to 1.41. The rapid economic growth in Liaoning Province was chiefly supported by the consumption of vast non-renewable resources, which caused the pressure of economic development on ecosystem getting more and more intense, the economic development increasingly depending on exogenous resources, and the sustainable development of Liaoning ecological-economic system having a continuing decrease. To realize the sustainable development in Liaoning Province, the principles of reduction, reutilization and recycling should be taken as the guidelines for promoting the reuse of wastes and the closed fine circulation of resources to minimize the discharge of wastes. PMID:18533536

  11. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  12. Regional Sustainable Development – Czech Region Ranking UsingMulti-criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenka Hudrlikova

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to provide a ranking of the Czech NUTS 3 regions based onsustainable development indicators. The original list of indicators was published by theCzech Statistical Office in 2008 and reviewedin 2010. In the analysis the same set ofindicators with the latest data was used. The indicators in each pillar are merged by meansof linear aggregation withweights derived from the principal component analysis.Because three pillars of sustainable development (environmental, economic and socialare assumed to be non-compensable, the multiple-criteria decision analysis is applied on apillar level in the final composite indicator. Both two main approaches – Borda andCondorcet were considered. Since the Borda approach leads to the compensability of theindicators, the Condorcet approach was in the spotlight. Advancedrules and adjustmentfor Condorcet approach were employed. Advantages and disadvantages of the methodsare provided. As a result more final rankings exist. The deep discussion about the resultsis provided. The special attention is paid to the capital city Prague, border regions, andindustrial regions. In addition, the correlation between final ranking and other indicatorsis tested.

  13. A new decision model for economic evaluation of novel therapies for HCV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Ruggeri

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has given the license to two new direct-acting antiviral: sofosbuvir and simeprevir. The evidence provided by the studies, reported a high rate of SVR even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This and other innovative elements are potentially adept at changing the entire natural course of HCV. However, the dramatic prevalence rates of HCV observed in Italy, and the high prices that are expected to be required by the pharmaceutical industry, raises some critical issues about how to regulate access to such drugs. The objective of this article is to present a new decision model for the evaluation of novel therapies for HCV. This model is intended to provide a tool for the decision-maker that seeks to address the main issues related to the introduction of HCV new treatments. The model that we have structured follows the classic Bayesian approach, using data from reference literature for staging the action of treatments depending on the level of fibrosis (F0, F1, F2, F3, F4. The model is designed to consider patients with all genotypes and allows to make comparisons between innovative and traditional therapies (dual, triple, IFN free, PI combinations, etc., for both experienced and naïve patients. In addition, the model is used to simulate mixed cohorts of patients, representing a population with HCV with different levels of fibrosis and different genotypes. To show the potential of the model, we created some simple scenarios assuming different levels of SVR and pricing. The results of our model show that, even assuming an SVR rate of 100%, the administration of new treatments for HCV subjects F1 / 2 has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio not sustainable. In contrast, for the subjects F3 and F4, low incremental SVR rates and an incremental cost of the innovative therapy of € 40,000 would be cost effective. The added value of this model is its versatility and applicability to diverse assessment needs. In addition, the model offers an opportunity for reflection even to the industry, which in the years to come will have to develop strategies for entering the market and offer sustainable prices for decision-makers and at the same time remunerate the investment in research and development consistently with the expectations of the shareholders.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v15i3.945

  14. Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch : Integrating Social, Behavioral, Economic and Biological Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance (PASA) Branch is a team of approximately 22 scientists, technicians, and graduate student researchers. PASA provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and biological analyses in the context of human-natural resource interactions. Resource planners, managers, and policymakers in the U.S. Departments of the Interior (DOI) and Agriculture (USDA), State and local agencies, as well as international agencies use information from PASA studies to make informed natural resource management and policy decisions. PASA scientists' primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to advance performance in policy relevant research areas. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context, involve difficult to access populations, require knowledge of both natural/biological science in addition to social science, and require the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these difficult contexts, PASA researchers apply traditional and state-of-the-art social science methods drawing from the fields of sociology, demography, economics, political science, communications, social-psychology, and applied industrial organization psychology. Social science methods work in concert with our rangeland/agricultural management, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of PASA's research is to enhance natural resource management, agency functions, policies, and decision-making. Our research is organized into four broad areas of study.

  15. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    The rapid growth of high-data-rate applications along with the fact that the majority of mobile data traffic is originated indoor has drawn much attention on IBW (In Building Wireless) solutions, from industry to academic research. The mobile network operators seek proper indoor solutions to accommodate the high indoor traffic demand for their future network evolution. In this thesis, we study the dedicated indoor systems for enterprise solutions. The DAS and Femtocells constitute two major IBW solutions for efficient in-building coverage extension and capacity provision. This study makes a technology economical examination based on these two systems for network evolution using the LTE technology. The performance is evaluated based on simulations. Overall, the DAS is less efficient in providing high speed, high volume mobile data services than the multi-cell system, i.e. the Femto system and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto system has absolute advantage compared to the DAS. For coverage-oriented deployment with very limited user data traffic demand, DAS is the most economical solution in large-size buildings, and Femto is more economical for deployment in small-size buildings.

  16. Use of external cost assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis for comparative evaluation of options for electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper addresses external cost and multi-criteria analyses carried out for selected future electricity generating systems of interest under the Swiss conditions. The external cost estimates are based on an application of the 'impact pathway approach', enhanced by earlier experience from extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The estimated total costs, i.e. the sum of internal and external costs, may serve as a measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems. The multi-criteria approach allows a more explicit consideration of the social dimension, which is highly important for the decision-making process. The applications of multi-criteria analyses illustrate the sensitivity of the results to the range of preferences expressed in the energy debate. Certain patterns in system ranking can be observed in spite of these sensitivities. Both total cost assessment and multi-criteria analysis are found to be useful, complementary instruments to support procedures for decision-making. (author)

  17. Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip E. Graves

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods will generally increase labor supply, while relatively more technological advance for existing goods will reduce labor supply to the market. These impacts are seen to provide insights into Rostow’s stages of growth. Short run variations in the relative importance of the two types of technological change are seen to imply unpredictable business cycle behavior of the type we observe. The welfare implications of national income accounting that fails to consider changes in leisure are discussed.

  18. A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bier, Asmeret Brooke

    2014-01-01

    Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

  19. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  20. Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

    2010-01-06

    The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically high purity (limited dissolved solids) is used inside boilers, reactors or electrolyzers because as it changes phase or is consumed, it leaves very little residue behind. Pre-treatment of 'raw' source water to remove impurities not only enables efficient hydrogen production, but also reduces maintenance costs associated with component degradation due to those impurities. Cooling water has lower overall quality specifications, though it is required in larger volumes. Cooling water has distinct quality requirements aimed at preserving the cooling equipment by reducing scaling and fouling from untreated water. At least as important as the quantity, quality and cost of water inputs to a process are the quantity, quality and cost of water discharge. In many parts of the world, contamination from wastewater streams is a far greater threat to water supply than scarcity or drought (Brooks, 2002). Wastewater can be produced during the pre-treatment processes for process and cooling water, and is also sometimes generated during the hydrogen production and cooling operations themselves. Wastewater is, by definition, lower quality than supply water. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities can handle some industrial wastewaters; others must be treated on-site or recycled. Any of these options can incur additional cost and/or complexity. DOE's 'H2A' studies have developed cost and energy intensity estimates for a variety of hydrogen production pathways. These assessments, however, have not focused on the details of water use, treatment and disposal. As a result, relatively coarse consumption numbers have been used to estimate water intensities. The water intensity for hydrogen production ranges between 1.5-40 gallons per kilogram of hydrogen, including the embedded water due to electricity consumption and considering the wide variety of hydrogen production, water treatment, and cooling options. Understanding the consequences of water management choices enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding water use. Water is a fundamentally reg

  1. Can Economic Analysis Contribute to Disease Elimination and Eradication? A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicuri, Elisa; Evans, David B.; Tediosi, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    Background Infectious diseases elimination and eradication have become important areas of focus for global health and countries. Due to the substantial up-front investments required to eliminate and eradicate, and the overall shortage of resources for health, economic analysis can inform decision making on whether elimination/eradication makes economic sense and on the costs and benefits of alternative strategies. In order to draw lessons for current and future initiatives, we review the economic literature that has addressed questions related to the elimination and eradication of infectious diseases focusing on: why, how and for whom? Methods A systematic review was performed by searching economic literature (cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness and economic impact analyses) on elimination/eradication of infectious diseases published from 1980 to 2013 from three large bibliographic databases: one general (SCOPUS), one bio-medical (MEDLINE/PUBMED) and one economic (IDEAS/REPEC). Results A total of 690 non-duplicate papers were identified from which only 43 met the inclusion criteria. In addition, only one paper focusing on equity issues, the “for whom?” question, was found. The literature relating to “why?” is the largest, much of it focusing on how much it would cost. A more limited literature estimates the benefits in terms of impact on economic growth with mixed results. The question of how to eradicate or eliminate was informed by an economic literature highlighting that there will be opportunities for individuals and countries to free-ride and that forms of incentives and/or disincentives will be needed. This requires government involvement at country level and global coordination. While there is little doubt that eliminating infectious diseases will eventually improve equity, it will only happen if active steps to promote equity are followed on the path to elimination and eradication. Conclusion The largest part of the literature has focused on costs and economic benefits of elimination/eradication. To a lesser extent, challenges associated with achieving elimination/eradication and ensuring equity have also been explored. Although elimination and eradication are, for some diseases, good investments compared with control, countries’ incentives to eliminate do not always align with the global good and the most efficient elimination strategies may not prioritize the poorest populations. For any infectious disease, policy-makers will need to consider realigning contrasting incentives between the individual countries and the global community and to assure that the process towards elimination/eradication considers equity. PMID:26070135

  2. Valuing groundwater: a practical approach for integrating groundwater economic values into decision making - A case study in Namibia, Southern Africa

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    C, Bann; SC, Wood.

    Full Text Available Groundwater provides a range of services to people in Southern Africa; however, the benefits provided by these services are often not fully appreciated and factored into decisions about groundwater management and use. After outlining briefly the importance of groundwater in the region and the pressu [...] res facing groundwater, this paper discusses how economic valuation can help improve its management. The main focus of the paper is the presentation of the practical 5-step economic valuation methodology that has been developed as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Groundwater and Drought Management Project. This methodology can be generally applied to groundwater management issues across the SADC region. The methodology is based upon an ecosystem services approach which considers all the potential services that groundwater provides, which can result in improvements in human welfare. These services include provisioning services such as water for domestic use, agriculture and industry; regulating services such as the recharge of surface waters and carbon storage benefits; and cultural services such as the tourism associated with wildlife at groundwater-fed watering holes. The methodology incorporates a 2-tiered valuation approach. The Tier 1 valuation is based on market pricing and value-transfer approaches and can provide an initial view of the economic value of a resource in a particular use. A value-transfer tool has been developed, which allows the user to select from a menu of the currently available transfer values for use in an assessment. A Tier 2 valuation requires more detailed primary studies and may be required following a Tier 1 assessment where more certainty in decision-making is required. The methodology has been tested at 4 pilot sites in the region. An example of the application of the SADC groundwater-valuation methodology in Namibia is presented in this paper. The paper concludes with recommendations for the development of groundwater valuation in the region. Emphasis is placed on training, the commissioning of more groundwater-valuation studies and the need for more scientific research to facilitate the valuation of groundwater-regulating services.

  3. Accounting Analysis of Economic Policy of Spain (2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel Pérez Benedito

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of economic policy is made through a new methodology using the information provided by businesses to the Bank of Spain. The financial statements are the result of economic and financial transactions in a year and show a behavior that is likely to be measured by applying the Edgeworth’s box for analysis. This means that it is possible to measure the response of firms against market disruptions through an accounting interpretation of the information contained in the financial statements. The indicators obtained through this methodology measure a position taken in the Edgeworth’s box. Consequently, the observations obtained are random and therefore may explain the evolution of the economy of any country.

  4. Economic analysis in medical education: definition of essential terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kieran

    2014-10-01

    Medical education is expensive. There is a growing interest in the subject of cost and value in medical education. However, in the medical education literature, terms are sometimes used loosely - and so there is a need for basic grounding in the meaning of commonly used and important terms in medical education economics. The purpose of this article is to define some terms that are frequently used in economic analysis in medical education. In this article, terms are described, and the descriptions are followed by a worked example of how the terms might be used in practice. The following terms are described: opportunity cost, total cost of ownership, sensitivity analysis, viewpoint, activity-based costing, efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, price and transaction costs. PMID:25072235

  5. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

  6. Group Decision Making Coordinating Characteristic Analysis and Modeling of Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

    OpenAIRE

    Wei Huang; Xingnan Zhang; Chenming Li; Jianying Wang

    2012-01-01

    Group decision-making management is an important issue in water management reform and development. The lacking of effective communication and cooperation is the major defects of the existing group decision-making models. Based on the in-depth analysis of the coordinating characteristic in group decision making, this study proposed a multi-layer dynamic model of water resource allocation and scheduling. This model focuses on effective communication and coordination. In order to solve the probl...

  7. Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming

    OpenAIRE

    Wenum, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for wildlife in agriculture, specifically applicable at farm level, (2) definition of a wildlife production function, (3) definition of the optimal strategy for incorporating wildlife conservation measures...

  8. Justifications and Excuses in the Economic Analysis of Tort Law

    OpenAIRE

    Visscher, L.T.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: In the economic analysis of tort law, scant attention is paid to justifications and excuses. An injurer invoking a justification argues that he did not act wrongfully. Excuses imply that the injurer acted wrongfully, but that his act cannot be imputed to him. If torts are described in general terms, on an abstract level, the possible role of justifications and excuses is larger than if the tort is subjectively defined. After all, the specific circumstances of the case that cou...

  9. An economic analysis of identity and career choice

    OpenAIRE

    Knoth Humlum, Maria; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Skyt Nielsen, Helena

    2007-01-01

    Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary returns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof and Kranton (2000), we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors relate...

  10. Forecast of the Economic- Financial Performance Based on Diagnostic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Daniela Solomon; Simona Dragomirescu

    2010-01-01

    To ensure efficient financial management is necessary to achieve the forecast of economic and financial performance on the basis of diagnostic analysis, approach most often developed starting from the prediction of turnover and also necessary for shaping an organization's prospects. In financial management, the turnover’s increasing is considered an objective in itself, being interpreted as generating increased market share, profit. Sales condition therefore the entire activity of a company...

  11. The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Ferdous Alam; Chamhuri Siwar; Basri Talib; Rabiul Islam

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a...

  12. A citation-analysis of economic research institutes

    OpenAIRE

    Ketzler, Rolf; Zimmermann, Klaus F.

    2012-01-01

    The citation analysis of the research output of the German economic research institutes presented here is based on publications in peer-reviewed journals listed in the Social Science Citation Index for the 2000-2009 period. The novel feature of the paper is that a count data model quantifies the determinants of citation success and simulates their citation potential. Among the determinants of the number of cites the quality of the publication outlet exhibits a strong positive effect. The same...

  13. Technical and economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood-waste fuels in a Finnish heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, I investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. I solved the electricity generation problem using optimization of the energy products and fuel mixtures based on energy efficiency and forest technology. The decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels. The optimal product and fuel mixtures were selected by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses. The combinatorial complexity of the problem required the use of adaptive techniques to solve a multiple-objective linear programming system with industrial relevance. I discuss the properties of the decision-support system and methodology and illustrate pricing of electricity generation based on real industrial data. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made based on a comprehensive technical and economic analysis that accounts for procurement of local forest fuels in a holistic supply chain model. -- Highlights: ? I use adaptive techniques to solve a multiple-objective linear programming system with industrial relevance. ? I investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels. ? The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made based on a comprehensive technical and economic analysis. ? The optimal product and fuel mixtures were selected by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

  14. Analysis of decisions and evaluation of components influencing the state of decisions of nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A proposal for reporting and for feedback of human malfunctions at Swedish nuclear power plants is presented for regular use. The method is intended for the description of terms which are independent of the situation. There is also the possibility to improve the exchange of experience with other countries. The proposed method was tested on a couple of incidents at Swedish nuclear power plants. The simplified version of the decision analysis was found to be sufficient for uncomplicated cases. (G.B.)

  15. Safety and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Möller, Niklas

    2006-01-01

    Safety is an important topic for a wide range of disciplines, such as engineering, economics, sociology, psychology, political science and philosophy, and plays a central role in risk analysis and risk management. The aim of this thesis is to develop a concept of safety that is relevant for decision-making, and to elucidate its consequences for risk and safety research and practices. Essay I provides a conceptual analysis of safety in the context of societal decision-making, focusing on some ...

  16. Technical-economical analysis of the power distribution systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By doing the research within this project the researchers have studied thoroughly the most modern world literature which helped them got a complete overview of the state of the art and helped them obtained a considerable amount of new knowledge in the field of power distribution analysis and planning. This knowledge has formed the basis for the realization of the existing models as well as for the development of new models and techniques. All these activities have produced certain results. Some of the results from the project have been already published in the most prominent domestic and world publications in the last three years. The rest will be published in the near future. These results will be systematically summarized in the sequel: 1) The most modern and recent literature in the field of power distribution design and analysis has been studied. 2) The technical criteria to be used in the assessment of adequacy and acceptability of the alternatives considered have been defined. Here, a new stochastic approach has been introduced in the treatment of some of the technical criteria (voltage levels, thermal limits and reliability indices. 3) The existing models for calculations and analysis of radial distribution networks have been studied and some new models and efficient techniques have been developed. 4) A new, original, probabilistic load flow method has been developed. 5) The convolution technique has been introduced in the solution of the probabilistic load flothe solution of the probabilistic load flow problem in power distribution networks. This also represents an original scientific work. 6) The problems of power and energy loss minimization by network reconfiguration have been studied. 7) A new model for the determination of optimal configuration of balanced and unbalanced power distribution networks has been realized. 8) A new, original, energy loss calculation technique has been developed. The technique needs easily obtainable input data. It is rather simple, highly efficient and precise. 9) The classical methods, analytical and deterministic, for reliability analysis have been studied. A new, more accurate, stochastic approach which relies on Monte Carlo simulation has been developed. 10) Customer damages due to loss of electricity supply have been studied and analyzed in detail, as well as their economic impact and their incorporation into a technic-economical analysis. 11) The influence of the automatic and telematic switching equipment on the reliability indices in power distribution networks has been investigated and their incorporation into a technic-economical analysis have been studied. 12) A new engineering economic technique for assessment of development alternatives for a power distribution system has been introduced. It represents a generalization of the well known 'present worth technique', based upon the fuzzy set theory. This way it is possible to include nonstatistical uncertainty which is almost always present in the input data. 13) By using the results from above, a new, modem, efficient and accurate up to the desired level, model for technic-economical analysis has been developed. The model is computer oriented and is aimed for use in power distribution system planning and analysis. 14) A computer software that comprise all the above described techniques, models and economic aspects has been developed. This software enables further technic-economical analysis, carried on a computer, of any power distribution system. (Original)

  17. Case Study: Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank Dinan

    2008-07-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this input, it is only one of a number of factors that influence such decisions; it, alone, generally does not determine the out come of these processes.

  18. MCDA tools and Risk Analysis: the Decision Deck Project

    OpenAIRE

    Mayag, Brice; Cailloux, Olivier; Mousseau, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    Multiple Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) aims at helping a decision maker (DM) in the representation of his preferences over a set of alternatives, on the basis of several criteria which are often contradictory. In addition to the presence of a DM, MCDA process requires a specification of criteria, alternatives and preferential information given by the DM. Hence many methods have been developed in order to solve MCDA problems (ELECTRE methods, AHP, etc.). The interconnexion between MCDA and risk...

  19. Projects Bidding Decision Risk Analysis Based on Multi-factor Clustering Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Project risk management is a very complex work which the pre-bid decision-making risk is one of the important aspects among. This study is based on the consideration the facts that the general contractor risk management of project is a strong empirical work as well as the indicators described the project characteristic are mostly qualitative indicators. It adjusts the usual quantification mode of qualitative indicators did in the past. It introduced cluster analysis technique, established the analysis model based on the multi-objectives function optimum factors and hybrid scale stepwise clustering. Additionally, through the approach of established projects sample risk factor data mining, this study proposed scientific theory evidence for the decision making of general contractor construction project bidding.

  20. Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manvinder Singh Pahwa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

  1. Socio-economic impact analysis of new AECB regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The federal government's Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIA) policy has been in effect since 1978. Under this policy, all new or amended regulations concerning health, safety, or fairness are subjected to a screening exercise which determines whether the regulations are 'major' or 'minor'. The costs and benefits of major regulations are analyzed in depth. This paper describes the SEIA policy and explains some of the basic concepts. Then the steps the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) follows in the analysis of new regulations are summarized. Finally, the AECB's past and forthcoming experience with the SEIA policy is discussed

  2. Taxation and Economic Growth : An Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Panel Data of WAEMU Countries

    OpenAIRE

    NANTOB, N'Yilimon

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of taxation on economic growth of the eight WAEMU countries. Among the critiques addressed to the public sector, numerous are those that refer principally to the negative effects which entail high weight and increasing of taxation. The growth rate can be influenced by economic policy choice relative to taxation which has an effect on the decisions of economic agents and is due to the productive public expenditures. The reason is that high level of taxati...

  3. China Central Area’s Economic Growth Mechanism Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying LIU

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available
    Through the regression analysis of the related data collected from 1991 to 2005 in China different economic areas, this paper has indicated the China central area’s economic growth mechanism. The result shows that consumption demand is the dominating factor driving the central area’s economic growth, while the investment demand and the exporting oriented economy have relatively little effects.
    Key words: central area’s economic growth, consumption demand , investment demand, exporting oriented economy
    Résumé: A travers l’analyse des données recueillies de 1991 à 2005 dans de différents domaines économiques de la Chine, cet article indique la voie de croissance économique de la région centrale chinoise. Le résultat montre que la demande de consommation est un facteur dominant qui pousse la croissance économique tandis que la demande d’investissement et l’économie d’exportation exercent des effets relativement petits.
    Mots-Clés: croissance économique de la région centrale, demande de consommation, demande d’investissement, économie d’exportation

  4. Social class variation in risk: a comparative analysis of the dynamics of economic vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, Christopher T; Maître, Bertrand

    2008-12-01

    A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis. PMID:19035916

  5. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to conclude that the managers of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions. Overall, the model seems to be robust to tests of its specification and does a better job of describing the data than do simpler models of the decision making process. Limitations in the data do not allow us to perform the same tests in a larger cross-section of utility companies. However, we are able to estimate transaction cost parameters for many firms and these do not seem to vary significantly from those of PGE. This evidence does not cause us to reject our hypothesis that managerial behavior is consistent with a model in which managers maximize shareholder value.

  6. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.; Hunter, S.; Calzonetti, F.J.

    1992-10-01

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility`s participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities.

  7. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility's participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities

  8. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation. PMID:22317163

  9. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installationlemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  10. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and participants felt uneasy about probabilities. The application of decision analysis in exercises has proven useful. Structuring the problem provided insight and many new issues could be analysed and discussed. Using a decision interview technique forces participants to think about the issue more carefully. Opinions seem to be more coherent and harmonised compared with earlier decision conferencing. Further meetings, however, need to be organised in order to deepen insight into the features of the decision-making process and to familiarise decision-makers with decision analysis techniques. More research is needed on how to implement decision conferencing or interviews in nuclear emergency management. (orig.)

  11. Teleradiology: economic analysis of CT investigations of a small hospital

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: to evaluate, discuss and compare economic aspects of teleradiological applications in CT examinations in a small hospital. Scenario (1): CT examination by an extern institution including transport of a patient. Szenario (2): External consultation of an internal CT examination (teleradiology according to ROeV). Scenario (3): Complete in-house radiology department. To evaluate economic aspects of teleradiology service providers. Materials and methods: costs have been separated into fixed and variable costs in a model. Total costs of 500 CT examinations per year have been calculated for the three scenarios. A break-even analysis has been performed to determine the necessary/minimal number of CTs per year for economical advantages. The number of CT consultations for teleradiology service providers to make profit has been calculated. Results: scenario (1): this is the most cost-effective scenario for 500 CTs per year, but most time-consuming. Beyond 548 CTs per year using a single slice CT and 965 CTs per year using a multislice CT the teleradiology scenario [scenario (2)] is most cost-effective. Beyond 1065 CTs per year an in-house radiology department [scenario (3)] is economically reasonable. On the basis of 30 Euros per CT consultation a teleradiology service providing system will be profitable starting from 322 CT consultations per year. Conclusion: teleradiology applications are economically reasonable in a wide range in small hospitals. CT teleradiology sere in small hospitals. CT teleradiology services can also be provided on a cost-effective basis at a reachable number of consultations. (orig.)

  12. Economic Analysis on the Tragedy of the Commons of River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weikang Zhang

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tragedy of the commons of river describes the plight of continuous exhaustion of the river resources. Its essence is because resources are excessive used. It takes the river pollution as an example in this paper, under the traditional hypothesis of classical economics, to analyze the reasons for the formation of tragedy of the commons of the rivers briefly, which is caused by repeated pollution actions among the inhabitants and the institution is important to solve it resultantly, in the view of game theory. Then, on the basis of New Institutional Economics (NIE, the discussion separately from microscopic, intermediate and macroscopic perspectives explores and answers what the institutions should be for tragedy of the commons of the rivers. Next is the case analysis of Jinhua River. It comes to the conclusions: the government could exploit planning mechanism and price mechanism generally, providing proper river property rights arrangement, to reduce various transaction costs and establish the river compensation system.

  13. Economic Analysis of Cassava Production in Benue State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.U. Odoemenem

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The study was undertaken to analyze the economics of cassava production in Benue State. Data for this study were collected from a sample of one hundred and sixteen small-scale cassava farmers randomly selected. The objectives of the study were to determine and rank the cost elements of cassava production in the study area; determine the returns to cassava production; and evaluate the profitability of cassava production in the study area. Socio-economic factors include age, educational background, marital status, sex, sources of labour, awareness of extension services, method of weed control, and method of farm land acquisition were identified. Data collected for the study were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The coefficient of determination (R2 is 0.616, suggesting that the used model has a high goodness of fit. Furthermore, the result of the statistical analysis shows that investing in cassava production enterprise is profitable.

  14. Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-06-01

    This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.

  15. The use (or rather the non-use) of cost-effectiveness data in priority setting decisions – are we underestimating the barriers to using health economics in real world priority setting decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erntoft, Sandra T.

    2015-01-01

    After having practicing and researching health economics for nearly 15 years now, it has become clear to me that the use of cost-effectiveness data in priority setting decisions is rather a rare than a common practice. The Eckard et al. article though, describes a wonderful exception to this rule and a very good example of how it can be used when the conditions are right. However, do we fully understand what these conditions are? In this commentary article I will address some of the institutional and cultural conditions that need to be fulfilled in order for cost-effectiveness data to actually be used in priority setting decisions. PMID:25774375

  16. Economic analysis of two nuclear fuel cycle options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • We model equilibrium material flows processes on two nuclear fuel cycle options. • Monte Carlo simulation was used to get the statistical results with deviations. • We set the time frame to schematically describe the fuel cycle processes. • We determined all component costs separately discounted to the base year. - Abstract: There are two major nuclear fuel cycle options in the world: the once-through cycle (OTC) option and the closed fuel cycle (CFC) option which consists of the thermal reactor recycle (TRR) and the fast reactor recycle (FRR). Presently, the TRR option has been industrially implemented in some European countries while the FRR option is still under development internationally. In this paper, the economic analysis of OTC and TRR options was carried out using levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC). The two options were analyzed by calculating the equilibrium material flows as well as the economic costs of the overall fuel cycle components. The LFCCs of the two options were obtained as follows: OTC $5.94 ± 0.67 mills/kW h and TRR $6.13 ± 0.55 mills/kW h. Taking all uncertainties into considerations, the two options’ costs were in the same range. In addition, the sensitivity analysis was made to figure out the breakeven uranium price ($112/kgHM), at which uranium price from OTC was economically competitive to TRR option slightly. Under the most possible international circumstance, it indicates a decreasing breakeven uranium price in future, which means TRR option would be more economical than OTC option

  17. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    CERN Document Server

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  18. Economism

    OpenAIRE

    Simons, P.

    2010-01-01

    Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism), but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism). The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of peopl...

  19. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Trigonis

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in their companies, as well as their own opinion concerning the introduction of sports at work. In addition, their demographic and socio-economic characteristics were recorded. The results indicated that the employers with a higher level of education make use of sports programmes in their companies more often, compared to those with a lower level of education. Sex, age and salary of employers did not affect the frequency of sports programmes at work. The employers claim that the introduction of sports activities in their companies helped reduce the appearance of illnesses and employees’ absence from work due to health reasons, and the number of accidents at work. Consequently, it contributed to the increase in production, creativity and team spirit among the employees, while raising their morale, and self-confidence. Moreover, it brought about a rise in profits and improved the image of the company offering such programmes. A research focus on the legal status, organization and establishment of sports activities at work could provide valuable information on whether health and safety measures are applied according to the provisions of the law.

  20. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  1. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  2. Logit analysis of socio-economic factors influencing people to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acquah Henry D.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the socio-economic factors that influence people’s decision to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana. Using a well structured interview schedule, a random sample of 98 people from Elmina in the central region of Ghana was selected for the study. Results from the descriptive statistics analysis of respondents identified fishing as a family business, minimum skills requirement and ready market for fish demand as factors that motivated majority of the people into fishing. Lack of storage facilities, access to credit, lack of government assistance and unpredictable changes in weather conditions on sea were the main constraints to fishing activities. Results from the logistic regression model indicated that household size and access to credit were significant factors that positively influenced people’s decision to become fishermen. The regression analysis further revealed that engaging in other income generating activity and being educated significantly reduces the probability to start fishing business.

  3. Nuclear power economics. Chapter 11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power station investment decisions (the simple economic comparison (for AGR and coal-fired plants); sensitivity; the generating system); social cost-benefit analysis (radioactive wastes; environmental impacts and population risks; proliferation, terrorism and civil liberties; R and D costs; other factors; applicability of social cost-benefit); fast reactor economics; accountancy; conclusions. (U.K.)

  4. Dynamic Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method Based on Prospect Theory and Conjoint Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Junhua HU; Chen, Peng; Yang,Liu

    2014-01-01

    A method based on prospect theory and conjoint analysis is proposed for dynamic stochastic multi-criteria decision making problems, in which the information about criteria weight is unknown and criteria values follow some kinds of distributions. Decision-maker’s attitude towards risk is introduced into this paper. First, data is collected by investigation and criteria weights are derived by conjoint analysis. The prospect values of each alternative in different periods are calculated accordin...

  5. Economic analysis of cloud-based desktop virtualization implementation at a hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo Sooyoung

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cloud-based desktop virtualization infrastructure (VDI is known as providing simplified management of application and desktop, efficient management of physical resources, and rapid service deployment, as well as connection to the computer environment at anytime, anywhere with anydevice. However, the economic validity of investing in the adoption of the system at a hospital has not been established. Methods This study computed the actual investment cost of the hospital-wide VDI implementation at the 910-bed Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in Korea and the resulting effects (i.e., reductions in PC errors and difficulties, application and operating system update time, and account management time. Return on investment (ROI, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR indexes used for corporate investment decision-making were used for the economic analysis of VDI implementation. Results The results of five-year cost-benefit analysis given for 400 Virtual Machines (VMs; i.e., 1,100 users in the case of SNUBH showed that the break-even point was reached in the fourth year of the investment. At that point, the ROI was 122.6%, the NPV was approximately US$192,000, and the IRR showed an investment validity of 10.8%. From our sensitivity analysis to changing the number of VMs (in terms of number of users, the greater the number of adopted VMs was the more investable the system was. Conclusions This study confirms that the emerging VDI can have an economic impact on hospital information system (HIS operation and utilization in a tertiary hospital setting.

  6. Deep brain stimulation for Alzheimer disease: a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeedi-Farahani, Keyvan; Halpern, C H; Baltuch, G H; Wolk, D A; Stein, S C

    2015-05-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) is characterized by impairments in memory function. Standard AD treatment provides marginal improvements in this domain. Recent reports, however, suggested that deep brain stimulation (DBS) may result in improved memory. Given significant equipment costs and health expenses required for DBS surgery, we determine clinical and economic thresholds required for it to be as effective as standard AD treatment. Literature review yielded annual AD progression probabilities, health-related quality of life (QoL), and costs by AD stage. Our 5-year decision analysis model compared cumulative QoL in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs of standard therapy to theoretical DBS treatment of various success rates, using known complication rates and QoL data. The base case was a patient with mild-stage AD. DBS success was defined as regression to and maintenance of minimal stage AD, which was defined as midway between mild and no dementia, for the first year, and continuation of the natural course of AD for the remaining 4 years. Compared to standard treatment alone, DBS for mild-stage AD requires a success rate of 3 % to overcome effects of possible surgical complications on QoL. If DBS can be delivered with success rates above 20 % ($200 K/QALY) or 74 % ($50 K/QALY) for mild AD, it can be considered cost-effective. Above a success rate of 80 %, DBS treatment is both clinically more effective and more cost-effective than standard treatment. Our findings demonstrate that clinical and economic thresholds required for DBS to be cost-effective for AD are relatively low. PMID:25740662

  7. THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ACTUAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina BALAN

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Tourism sector. Under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises, sharp exchange rate fluctuations, increase terrorism acts in several region with tourism potential Tourism demand slowed significantly. Yet, despite the current difficulties, the Tourism sector remains a critical economic sector worldwide and one that provides significant potential for economic growth and development internationally. A growing national Tourism sector contributes to raises national income, employment, and can improve a country's balance of payments. The sector is thus an important driver of growth and prosperity and,  within developing countries, it can play a leading role in poverty reduction. Despite the overall importance of developing the Tourism sector, many obstacles at the national level continue to hinder its development. This analysis aims to serve two purposes. First, we intend to provide useful comparative information for making decisions related to business and tourism development. Second, and more importantly, we hope that the analysis provides an opportunity for the Tourism industry to highlight the obstacles to Tourism competitiveness.

  8. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  9. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  10. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  11. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  12. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems; Bioenergiasysteemien teknistaloudellinen analyysi. IEA Bioenergy Agreement Techno-economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  13. An economic analysis of photovoltaic solar refrigeration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The research activity has shown that the solar energy is an ideal source for low temperature heating applications as domestic heating. The direct use of solar energy as a primary energy source is interesting because of its universal availability and its low environmental impact. Solar heating applications are intuitive because, when a surface absorbs solar energy, the surface temperature increases determining a heating potential. The use of solar energy to obtain refrigeration is less intuitive. Different technologies are available to obtain refrigeration from solar energy; in particular, there are solar electric, solar thermal and some new emerging technologies. The first system deals with the refrigerated vehicles used to carry foodstuffs. The photovoltaic plant has been sized taking into account the vehicle available area and the proper refrigeration capacity determined by the foodstuffs, the vehicle volume and the outdoor temperature. As for this system, an accurate sensibility analysis has shown that if there was a proper loan of about 75% of the photovoltaic plant cost, there would be a pay-back period of about seven years. In this case the photovoltaic technology allows to obtain not only economic advantages but also to achieve a CO2 reduction in the transportation area. As for the second system, it is related to refrigerators adopted in underdeveloped countries for their simple structure and low costs. The economic analysis has shown pay-back periodconomic analysis has shown pay-back periods between two and six years, depending on the type of silicon adopted. (author)

  14. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  15. A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decision-makers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even e since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was - 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable. (author)

  16. Examination of European Union economic cohesion: A cluster analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Mazurek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past years majority of EU members experienced the highest economic decline in their modern history, but impacts of the global financial crisis were not distributed homogeneously across the continent. The aim of the paper is to examine a cohesion of European Union (plus Norway and Iceland in terms of an economic development of its members from the 1st of January 2008 to the 31st of December 2012. For the study five economic indicators were selected: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, labour productivity and government debt. Annual data from Eurostat databases were averaged over the whole period and then used as an input for a cluster analysis. It was found that EU countries were divided into six different clusters. The most populated cluster with 14 countries covered Central and West Europe and reflected relative homogeneity of this part of Europe. Countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain shared their own cluster of the most affected countries by the recent crisis as well as the Baltics and the Balkans states in another cluster. On the other hand Slovakia and Poland, only two countries that escaped a recession, were classified in their own cluster of the most successful countries

  17. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly BENCHEVA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

  18. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ? Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ? Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ? Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ? Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ? Additional research is needed to create a more precise pold to create a more precise policy solution.

  19. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

  20. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Survey of Current Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis has available the Survey of Current Business. The publication provides a mixture of analytic articles and numerical tables on various subjects. It is highlighted by a monthly Business Situation section that discusses topics such as prices, personal income, consumption, exports and imports, and government spending. The periodical also presents selected regional, national, and international tables, including National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, among others. Online issues date back to January 1998.