WorldWideScience
 
 
1

Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

2005-01-01

2

Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, an innovative method - that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis - is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption and associated biomass production using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). This generates input for the socio-economic analysis, which aims to quantify the foregone economic w...

Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R. W. O.; Perry, C. J.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

2009-01-01

3

Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity:  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, an innovative method—that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis—is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption and associated biomass production using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). This generates input for the socio-economic analysis, which aims to quantify the foregone economic w...

Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C. J.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

2008-01-01

4

Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

2010-07-31

5

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada); Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D. [Carleton University, Sprott School of Business, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

2006-07-01

6

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

2005-11-20

7

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

Michael F. Goodchild

2013-05-01

8

Economic decisions in mastitis management  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This thesis was conducted with the main objectives (i) to calculate costs of mastitis and cost-efficiency of mastitis management measures and (ii) to acquire insights in the economic decision behaviour of dairy farmers with respect to mastitis management. Animal health economics is a decision supporting science, based on a decision making function of evaluating and choosing between alternative strategies on animal diseases. The potential economic importance of diseases such as mastitis is not...

Huijps, K.

2009-01-01

9

A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

2009-03-01

10

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.  

Science.gov (United States)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. PMID:20117877

Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, Peter; Bjerg, Poul L

2010-05-01

11

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lemming, Gitte; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

2010-01-01

12

Economic modelling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

1987-01-01

13

Advanced Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

2013-01-01

14

Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

2002-11-04

15

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Estimates were made of the relation between the plant-gate price of natural gas and the volume of economically recoverable undiscovered resources. Supply curves were presented for full-cycle and half-cycle cases, and for a weighted case in between full- and half-cycle cases. The weighted case was considered the reference case in this study. It was found that 10% of the volume of recoverable gas was economic at a price of $44.13 per 10,000 cubic m, and 38% was considered economic at $88.25 per 10,000 cubic m (in 1990 dollars). Further analysis showed the sensitivities of economic potential to changes in total costs, exploration success ratios, distances of discoveries to gathering systems, and resource estimates. Virtually all of the economically recoverable gas resources were found in four plays. 10 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.

Waghmare, R.R.; Dallaire, S.M.; Conn, R.F. [Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Sector

1994-12-31

16

SUBSTANTIATION OF ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN THE SMALL-SCALE BUSINESS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Formation of economic decisions in the small-scale business takes a leading place in a control system of the enterprise. On a choice of a variant of the decision depends not only the efficiency, but also a survival of a small enterprise. Therefore in the small-scale business the scientists and businessmen give to a substantiation of the economic decision prime attention.The substantiation of the economic decision occurs in the course of planning and regulation of activity of a small enterprise. The correct substantiation of strategic and tactical decisions, to what in the course of a substantiation it is necessary to apply corresponding methods of the complex analysis, is especially important.Limitation of resources of the small businessman causes the necessity of using by him the systems of support and decision-making in the course of a substantiation of economic decisions. Such systems should have a corresponding database, the interface and algorithmic maintenance.

S. Krekotun

2012-09-01

17

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

None

1980-06-01

18

Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

19

The reliability analysis--an aid to decision-making in the economic optimization of alternative power plant systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Using the example of the moisture separator drains system for a 1300 MW nuclear power plant with PWR, this lecture will demonstrate the calculation procedure to assist decision-making (reliability/expected losses/economic viability) for alternative design concepts. A critical examination of the results establishes that owing to the inadequate quality of the reliability parameters applied for the components used, a grey zone occurs in which no statistically assured statements can be made as to the economic benefits of the one or other alternative concepts

1982-01-01

20

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and pri...

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
21

The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively. This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio.

Shepperd Sasha

2007-12-01

22

Conditioned associations and economic decision biases  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Humans show substantial deviation from rationality during economic decision making under uncertainty. A computational perspective suggests these deviations arise out of an interaction between distinct valuation systems in the brain. Here, we provide behavioural data showing that the incidental presentation of aversive and appetitive conditioned stimuli can alter subjects' preferences in an economic task, involving a choice between a safe or gamble option. These behavioural effects informed a ...

Guitart-masip, M.; Talmi, D.; Dolan, R.

2010-01-01

23

Risk and decision analysis software  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The oil and gas industry engages in risky decision making. They invest money and other resources in projects whose outcomes are highly uncertain. They drill complex wells and build gas plants, refineries, platforms, and pipelines where costly problems could occur and associated revenues might be disappointing. They may lose their investment or they may make a handsome profit. Assessing the outcomes and assigning probabilities of occurrence and associated values are how they analyze and manage risk. A renewed interest in quantifying risk and formalizing complex decisions merits a review of the commercial software available. While this effort is not exhaustive, it serves as a starting point for the engineer or geoscientist whose interests point in this direction. Risk and decision analysis software is as diverse as the analysis methods themselves. Principally, there are programs that perform Monte Carlo simulation and make decision trees. Analytic models that do economics can be linked to both simulation and decision trees; optimization, sensitivity analysis, and influence diagrams are closely related. In addition, one encounters forecasting, expert systems, and fuzzy logic. Within geoscientists` purview are mapping packages and geostatistics software, both of which have the potential to offer strong support to uncertainty analysis. This article concentrates on software for decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, economics, portfolios, and statistical analysis.

Murtha, J.

1997-08-01

24

Personal Decision Making. Focus on Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

This book highlights and examines basic economic concepts as they relate to consumer, business, social, and personal choices. Students are shown connections between their classroom learning and their real-world experiences in budgeting, career planning, credit management, and housing. The set of 15 lessons include: (1) "Decision Making: Scarcity,…

Leet, Don R.; Charkins, R. J.; Lang, Nancy A.; Lopus, Jane S.; Tamaribuchi, Gail

25

Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U_3O_8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

1979-01-01

26

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent dev...

Zandstra, Elizabeth H.; Miyapuram, Krishna P.; Tobler, Philippe N.

2013-01-01

27

A Multidimensional Framework for Financial-Economic Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Most financial-economic decisions are made consciously, with a clear and constant drive to ???good???, ???better??? or even ???optimal??? decisions. Nevertheless, many decisions in practice do not earn these qualifications, despite the availability of financial economic theory, decision sciences and ample resources. We plea for the development of a multidimensional framework to support financial economic decision processes. Our aim is to achieve a better integration of available theory and de...

Hallerbach, W. G. P. M.; Spronk, J.

2003-01-01

28

Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions : an economic survey  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline of the many different Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques available and their relative advantages and disadvantages. In addition, theoretical and practical problems related to the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and MCA respectively are briefly discussed. We then review the MCA literature on case studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming.

Christensen, Tove; Olsen, Søren Bøye

29

Economic modeling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

1986-08-18

30

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

Guy Hutton

2008-01-01

31

Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences  

CERN Document Server

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2013-01-01

32

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated.

Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

33

Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

2008-07-01

34

Designing a Decision Support System for Marine Reserves Management: An Economic Analysis for the Dutch North Sea  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper we discuss how a Decision Support System (DSS) for managing the marine environment can be set up. We use the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Respond (DPSIR) framework to analyze which are the major driving forces impacting upon the marine environment in the North Sea. Moreover, a number of potential responses are identified. Furthermore, a preliminary and simplified optimization model has been set up and can be used in a DSS to decide on the best location of marine reserves ...

2007-01-01

35

Universal Cervical Length Screening and Treatment with Vaginal Progesterone to Prevent Preterm Birth: A Decision and Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Objective To estimate which strategy is the most cost-effective for prevention of preterm birth and associated morbidity. Study Design We used decision-analytic and cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate which of 4 strategies was superior based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost in US dollars ($), and number of preterm births prevented. Results Universal sonographic screening for cervical length and treatment with vaginal progesterone was the most cost-effective strategy and dominant over 3 alternatives: cervical length screening for women at increased risk for preterm birth and treatment with vaginal progesterone; risk-based treatment with 17 ?-hydroxyprogesterone Caproate (17-OHP-C) without screening; no screening or treatment. Universal screening represented savings of $1,339 ($8,325 vs. $9,664) when compared to treatment with 17-OHP-C, and led to a reduction of 95,920 preterm births annually in the US. Conclusion Universal sonographic screening for short cervical length and treatment with vaginal progesterone appears cost-effective and yields the greatest reduction in preterm birth prior to 34 weeks.

Cahill, Alison G.; Odibo, Anthony O.; Caughey, Aaron B.; Stamilio, David M.; Hassan, Sonia S.; Macones, George A.; Romero, Roberto

2009-01-01

36

Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

Farb NA

2013-01-01

37

Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance  

CERN Document Server

Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

2002-01-01

38

Economic analysis handbook  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This edition of the handbook provides revised guidance on the treatment of inflation in economic analysis, increased emphasis on the use of sensitivity analysis, additional guidance on the treatment of risk, and updates specific guidance for Navy programs. Especially those related to energy conservation. The purpose of this Economic Analysis Handbook is to provide offical NAVFAC guidance for the preparation of economic analyses for: (1) Proposed programs, projects and activities. (2) Program evaluation of ongoing activities. The methodologies demonstrated herein should be applied in comprehensive and continuous management reviews of the cost and effectiveness of both proposed and ongoing projects.

1980-07-01

39

Information and the Economic Decision Making Processes of Colombian Peasants.  

Science.gov (United States)

The document is concerned with the theory that peasants' economic decisions are influenced largely by the development situations in which they operate, and that communication is complementary to, not the essence of, the development process. The study, bas...

J. E. Grunig

1969-01-01

40

1979 Decision-Making Casebook for Business and Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

These teacher developed case studies taken from the business world are presented to help secondary students develop an understanding of economics and of the decision-making process. The studies describe real business situations. All historical and current facts are provided, and students must analyze the data and make business decisions. Teacher…

Tedesco, Paul H., Ed.; And Others

 
 
 
 
41

1978 Decision-Making Casebook for Business and Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

These teacher developed case studies taken from the business world are presented to help secondary students develop an understanding of economics and of the decision-making process. The studies describe real business situations. All historical and current facts are provided, and students must analyze the data and make business decisions. Teacher…

Tedesco, Paul H., Ed.; And Others

42

Economic decision-making compared with an equivalent motor task  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

There is considerable evidence that human economic decision-making deviates from the predictions of expected utility theory (EUT) and that human performance conforms to EUT in many perceptual and motor decision tasks. It is possible that these results reflect a real difference in decision-making in the 2 domains but it is also possible that the observed discrepancy simply reflects typical differences in experimental design. We developed a motor task that is mathematically equivalent to choosi...

Wu, Shih-wei; Delgado, Mauricio R.; Maloney, Laurence T.

2009-01-01

43

Plea for a Modular Design of Business Ethics – Basics of The Ethical Substantiation of Economic Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We regard this article as a plea for the modular design of a practice-related discipline of business ethics, in which we analyse under what conditions economic decisions and actions in firms – regardless of their content – are to be understood as morally right. Following the clarification of certain fundamentals of the ethical substantiation of economic decisions, we describe a system of modules as the epistemological frame of reference that designs the formal analysis. We...

Schweitzer, Marcell

2013-01-01

44

Logistical analysis of economic cycles  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Dissertation deals with logistical analysis of economic cycles. Aim of the research - to reveal and to determine causes of cyclical economic fluctuations, according to economic logistic theory. Theoretical, logistical and empirical analyses of cyclical economic fluctuations are carried out in the work. Conception of economic cycle is specified. Evaluating provisions of economic logistic theory, two models are created – theoretical logistic economic cycle model and logistic economic system?...

Mackevic?ius, Ramu?nas

2012-01-01

45

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. PMID:21930515

Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

2011-09-18

46

About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

Voloshyn, Oleksiy

2006-01-01

47

Assessment of the economic consequences of investment decisions companies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the article the features of investment decisions taking into account the existing capacity to attract a variety of sources of funding. We propose a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the capital structure of the investment project entity in financial and economic condition of the enterprise as a whole.

Yu Shilova, O.

2011-01-01

48

Decision-Making Casebook for Business and Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

These teacher developed case studies taken from the business world are presented to help secondary students develop an understanding of economics and of the decision-making process. The studies describe real business situations. All historical and current facts are provided for each of the seven case studies. In the first case, students debate…

Tedesco, Paul H., Ed.; And Others

49

Latent effects decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

Cooper, J. Arlin (Albuquerque, NM); Werner, Paul W. (Albuquerque, NM)

2004-08-24

50

Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.  

Science.gov (United States)

In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision. PMID:24454788

Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

2014-01-01

51

ALMR deployment economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country`s future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment.

Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-06-01

52

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.  

Science.gov (United States)

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

53

Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., “Big Five”, positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a “rational” versus an “irrational” response pattern on the UG. Our data...

Nguyen, Christopher M.; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H.; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.

2011-01-01

54

IDEAL trial: economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Introduction: the IDEAL (“High-dose atorvastatin vs usual-dose simvastatin for secondary prevention after myocardial infarction” study was carried out to compare intensive lowering of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol using the highest recommended dose of atorvastatin 80 mg with simvastatin 20 mg. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of simvastatin in reducing major coronary events in patients with a history of acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Methods: the analysis is based on clinical outcome data from the IDEAL study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of simvastatin (20 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 4.8 years. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of atorvastatin therapy over the 4.8 years period amounted to approximately 2.4 millions euro per 1,000 patients. The total cost of atorvastatin high dose was about 3.9 millions euro, the incremental cost per patient free from event is 31.176,03 euro. Discussion: this evaluation found that atorvastatin therapy is cost-effective. Results were sensitive to either clinical or economic variables.

Simona de Portu

2008-01-01

55

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

56

Decision analysis applied to electric utility rate  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Electric utility ratemaking has become increasingly controversial in the last decade because of the rapid rise in the nominal price of electricity. Prior research has determined that there is no one correct method of costing, but that the selection of a costing method depends on one's pricing or ratemaking objectives. Pricing objectives in the electric utility industry are multiple and often conflicting. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, a decision analysis technique, is used to address the problem of weighing priorities among pricing objectives. A normative model is developed for use by decision makers and national and regional preference values are determined. Such values afford an individual decision maker a reference standard for comparison purposes. Responses from various regions of the country are compared to determine sensitivity of pricing objectives to system operating characteristics. Basic policy findings from this research suggest that decision analysis can greatly improve the ratemaking process and that marginal costs and accounting costs results can be blended in a way to meet the economic efficiency objective.

Koger, R.K.

1984-01-01

57

Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision  

Science.gov (United States)

In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

Stabler, Thomas R.; Dinan, Frank J.

2008-01-01

58

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support  

Science.gov (United States)

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

59

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

60

Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

Oscarson, Nils

2006-01-01

 
 
 
 
61

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

2006-12-15

62

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

2006-01-01

63

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

1995-06-01

64

Bayesian Analysis on Quantitative Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Quantitative decision-making is thought of most often as an objective exercise based only on the cold analysis of verifiable hard facts. Intuition and even experience tends to be excluded from quantitative decision-making on the grounds that such information is subjective in character, and, thus, has no role in quantitative analysis. Quantitative decision-making is based in large part on the ability of decision-makers to make inferences about the probabilities of occurrence of...

Elliot Reedy (MSc)

2010-01-01

65

Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

Jacob N. Shapiro

2012-10-01

66

DECISION ANALYSIS IN HEALTH COVERAGE  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2000 the Organization of the United Nations established eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. The fourth objective, reducing child mortality, looks specifically for reducing two thirds of the mortality of children under five years old between 1990 and 2015. One of the specific indicators to measure progress towards this goal is the proportion of children under one year old immunized against measles.In 2001, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP estimated that over 60% of the population who lived in developing nations is far away or losing ground on achievement of the MDGs in reducing rates of infant mortality. This situation is compounded by the lack of progress in deepening the analysis of the issue, the lack of research and indicators to assess features timely coverage of care and health services.This article aims to contribute to the selection of the strategy which would improve health coverage in Misiones, using one of the tools of decision theory, the decision matrix.

Gloria Beatriz, Orzuza

2012-01-01

67

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

1995-01-01

68

A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In this paper we aim to develop a multidimensional decision-making model that would be more effective debt management to reduce them.

Riana Iren RADU

2011-11-01

69

Decision strategy research: system analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

2000-01-01

70

An analysis of medical decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

1976-10-29

71

Economic Analysis and Evidence  

sustain these high prices (through subsidising exports or buying produce to ... \\countryside landscape and in relation to wildlife habitats; these environmental \\impacts ..... Department's intention is to strengthen this analysis through adopting \\an .... increasing the impact of diverse cultural influences on consumer demand \\for ...

72

Techno-Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

1997-12-31

73

Biogas in agriculture. [Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The anaerobic digestion and its conditions are briefly described. The different feed materials are described and an estimation of the total biomass resources in Denmark is given. The characteristics of biomass and its conversion to heat and electricity are mentioned. Based on the actual technological level the different types of plants, their advantages and disadvantages are analysed. The safety of biogas plants and the possibilities of their connection to existing, traditional power plants are briefly described. 3 biogas plants are analysed. Based on known technology and the actual energy and economic conditions, the lower limits is estimated for the size of farms being able to establish profitable biogas plants. An estimation is made of the expected future biogas market in a 20-year period. Two types of farms are selected for an economic analysis and energy balance sheets for these farms are given. The total energy effect is calculated for the totally realised market. An economic analysis is made on the basis of today's energy prices, price rises, rate of interest, and costs. It is supplemented with a sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows, that under the given conditions biogas plants are able to compete with traditional individual power plants. The economic analysis is supplemented with calculations of the impact of the extension of biogas on economy, employment, security of supply, and environment.

Groen, G. (Carl Bro A/S); Parsborg, M. (Jordbrugsoekonomisk Institut)

1980-04-15

74

Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

1991-12-04

75

Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision Support Systems (DSS) form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the ...

2010-01-01

76

Developmental Neuroeconomics: Lifespan Changes in Economic Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The current thesis had one central aim: contributing to the understanding of age differences in decision making under uncertainty. Three studies were dedicated to investigate age differences in uncertain decisions in individual contexts. A fourth study aimed at developing a framework for the study of age differences in uncertain decisions with a social dimension.

2013-01-01

77

The coordination dynamics of economic decision making: a multilevel approach to social neuroeconomics.  

Science.gov (United States)

The basic reciprocity between individual parts and collective organization constitutes a key scientific question spanning the biological and social sciences. Such reciprocity is accompanied by the absence of direct linkages between levels of description giving rise to what is often referred to as the aggregation or nonequivalence problem between levels of analysis. This issue is encountered both in neuroscience and economics. So far, in spite of being identified and extensively discussed in various (other) scientific fields, the problem of understanding the nature of the interactions and coordination dynamics between individual (neuron approximately agent) and collective (neural networks approximately population of humans) behaviors has received little, if any attention in the growing field of neuroeconomics. The present contribution focuses on bringing a theoretical perspective to the interpretation of experiments recently published in this field and addressing how the concepts and methods of coordination dynamics may impact future research. First, we very briefly discuss the links between biology and economics. Second, we address the nonequivalence problem between different levels of analysis and the concept of reciprocal causality. Third, neuroeconomics studies that investigate the neural underpinnings of social decision making in the context of two economic games (trust and ultimatum) are reviewed to highlight issues that arise when experimental results exist at multiple scales of observation and description. Finally, in the last two sections, we discuss how coordination dynamics might provide novel routes to studying and modelling the relation between brain activity and decision making. PMID:19144588

Oullier, Olivier; Kirman, Alan P; Kelso, J A Scott

2008-12-01

78

A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study develops a social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning. This framework consists of four parts which are to spatially identify the grades on hydrological vulnerability (potential streamflow depletion and potential water quality deterioration, to evaluate the monetary values of improvements on hydrological vulnerability grades using the choice experiment method, to derive an alternative evaluation index (AEI to quantify the effectiveness of all alternatives, and to combine the derived willingness-to-pays (WTPs with the AEI and do the cost-benefit analysis of feasible alternatives. This framework includes the stakeholder participation in order to quantify the preferences with regard to management objectives (water quantity and quality and WTPs of alternatives. Finally, the economic values of each alternative can be estimated by this study which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability grades with the AEI. The proposed procedure is applied in the Anyangcheon watershed which has been highly urbanized for past thirty years. As a result, WTPs are $0.24~$10.08/month-household for water quantity and $0.80~$8.60/month-household for water quality and residents of the five regions among six have higher WTPs for water quality improvement. Finally, since three of ten alternatives have BC>0, they can be proposed to the decision makers. This systematic screening procedure will provide decision makers with the flexibility to obtain stakeholders' consensus for water resources planning.

E. S. Chung

2009-05-01

79

Economic Signaling and Distributive Efficiency of Judicial Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Problem statement: This study considered the problem of how a judge can render an optimal decision in a lawsuit where two litigants each assert a property right in a case where the relevant information is asymmetrically distributed between the parties and the judicial decision-maker. Approach: The research embodied in this study defines an optimal decision as one reflecting the distributive efficiency of the judicial vesting of the right. The research address...

Mantell, Edmund H.

2010-01-01

80

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions accordin...

2009-01-01

 
 
 
 
81

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

2001-12-01

82

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

2001-01-01

83

Economic analysis of fuel recycle  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time

1985-05-19

84

Economic analysis of fuel recycle  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time.

Juhn, P.E.

1985-01-01

85

Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the central streams of multiple criteria decision analysis literature. These literature streams are: MCDA today, Foundations of MCDA, Our Ranking Methods, Multiattribute Utility Theory, Non-Classical MCDA Approache...

Spronk, J.; Steuer, R. E.; Zopounidis, C.

2005-01-01

86

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. ...

Pires, Ana Lu?cia Lourenc?o

2010-01-01

87

Economic Decision Making Model for Geothermal Sludge Disposal alternatives (EDM-GSD): Version 1. 0  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Economic Decision Making Model for Geothermal Sludge Disposal Alternatives-Version 1.0'' (EDM-GSD 1.0) is a microcomputer-based dynamic model developed to assist in determining the benefits and costs of various geothermal solid waste treatment procedures. It is intended for use by geothermal managers in dealing with geothermal waste and treatment process issues as a means to assist in overcoming the technical and economic barriers to expanded geothermal energy utilization. The model is based on a 50MW flash plant. However, it is designed to provide the user with sufficient flexibility when inputing data to analyze all types of geothermal plants. Default values for economic and technical parameters can be overridden by the user through the input of specific data. In addition, data can be changed for any year of an analysis to account for desired changes in input parameters such as costs and distance to disposal sites. The results of the model will allow the user to: Determine current geothermal plant disposal costs; Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative treatment techniques; and Evaluate the economic effects of changes in disposal regulations.

1987-09-01

88

Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

2013-01-01

89

Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This work considers economic decision making, particularly scenarios in which the decision maker faces the presence of other (private) persons. It draws inferences for the design, operation, and use of e-commerce platforms from an economic and information systems perspective and is oriented along two vital concepts therein: social preferences and risk. The role of the type as well as the relation towards the reference person is explored from an empirical and game theoretical perspective.

Teubner, Timm

2013-01-01

90

Neuroeconomics and aging: neuromodulation of economic decision making in old age.  

Science.gov (United States)

Economic decision making is a complex process of integrating and comparing various aspects of economically relevant choice options. Neuroeconomics has made important progress in grounding these aspects of decision making in neural systems and the neurotransmitters therein. The dopaminergic and serotoninergic brain systems have been identified as key neurotransmitter systems involved in economic behavior. Both are known to be prone to significant changes during the adult lifespan. Similarly, economic behavior undergoes significant age-related changes over the course of the adult lifespan. Here we propose a triadic relationship between (a) economic decision making, (b) dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation, and (c) aging. In this review, we describe the different relationships around this triad in detail and summarize current evidence that supports them. Based on the reviewed evidence, we propose new research agendas that take the entire triad into account. PMID:19501615

Mohr, Peter N C; Li, Shu-Chen; Heekeren, Hauke R

2010-04-01

91

1980/1981 Decision-Making Casebook for Business and Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

These teacher developed case studies taken from the business world are presented to help secondary students develop an understanding of economics and of the decision-making process. The studies describe real business situations. All historical and current facts are provided, and students must analyze the data and make business decisions. Teacher…

Tedesco, Paul H., Ed.; And Others

92

????????????? Research and Analysis of Economic Case Based on Social Network  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????With the development of economic globalization and networking, social capital is becoming the most important element during the course of company growth and progress in economic system. This paper analy- zed and studied the relation structures in economic social-networks, raises the point that social network analy- sis plays a very important role in the procedure of economic decision-making and choosing. Take example of news traveling to illustrate the center nodes’ non-ignorable effects in innovation diffusion and in enterprise re- form. This paper explains that go into the economic social-network analysis is good for us to take advantage of the incomplete information to build a relatively complete relation network as the foundation of economic de- cision-making, which can effectively promote the companies development.

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2011-11-01

93

Independent individual decision-makers in household models and the new home economics  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Much of the recent literature in household economics has been critical of unitary models of household decision-making. Most alternative models currently used are bargaining models and consensual models, including collective models. This paper discusses another alternative: independent individual models of decision-making that don't make any specific assumptions of jointness of decision-making in households. Unitary models are typically associated with Gary Becker even though most of Becker's ...

Grossbard, Shoshana Amyra

2010-01-01

94

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of nuclear power from the perspective of sustainable development. Nuclear issues have become lied at the center of social concerns in Korea because they include not only the field of energy supply but also the social interests and conflicts. This study will help to provide the unbiased information, which can be referred to and utilized in reaching a social consensus on the related social issues. This study includes both the nuclear related issues in the electricity planning and the regional economic effects by nuclear power. The nuclear related issues in the electricity planning in the study include the probability assessment of the current national forecasted electricity demand being materialized, projection of the proper nuclear capacity, and the proper role and prospects of renewable energy, and distributed generation. For the analysis on the regional economic effect from nuclear power, the region of Uljin was chosen, and input output analysis on the region was carried out. For the input output analysis, we created the regional I/O table by classifying the number of producing sectors into 14 taking into consideration the availability of the regional statistics

2005-01-01

95

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

2008-01-01

96

Economics and decisions to end life: van Acht and Stooker revisited.  

Science.gov (United States)

Debates about euthanasia have tended to exclude any economic arguments. This might be due to the narrow perspective of the economic arguments presented to date, most of which focus on the health care costs in the last year of life. This paper considers the wider economic aspects in decisions to end life, including potential methodological weaknesses in measuring costs in the last year of life, the costs of euthanasia itself, the value of patient preferences and the value (and problems) of choice. Suggestions are made on how these economic issues might be explored to take the economic arguments forward. PMID:14619262

Scuffham, Paul A; Taylor, Matthew J

2002-01-01

97

Supporting decisions on conflicting land-uses: An integrated ecological-economic approach  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

An integrated ecological-economic decision-making approach is developed to help local stakeholders decide on land use in rural areas where the conflict between natural resource protection and economic development is pressing. It consists of four methodological steps. In the first step the political options and alternatives for action regarding changes in the land-use pattern are specified in order to derive politically relevant land-use strategies (scenarios). In the second step economic, eco...

Klauer, Bernd; Messner, Frank; Herzog, Felix

1999-01-01

98

Economic analysis of non-taxed commercial solar hot water systems and combined heating and hot water systems  

Science.gov (United States)

An economic analysis of nontaxed commercial solar systems is presented. A realistic evaluation of current cost effectiveness of nontaxed commercial solar energy systems is provided. Economic considerations involved in the decisions to invest in a solar system are described. Easy to use tools to make rational decisions regarding economic viability of nontaxed commercial solar energy systems in a particular application are outlined.

1980-09-01

99

Using decision analysis in physical protection planning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

1986-06-22

100

Multicriteria decision analysis: a comprehensive decision approach for management of contaminated sediments.  

Science.gov (United States)

Contaminated sediments and other sites present a difficult challenge for environmental decisionmakers. They are typically slow to recover or attenuate naturally, may involve multiple regulatory agencies and stakeholder groups, and engender multiple toxicological and ecotoxicological risks. While environmental decision-making strategies over the last several decades have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex approaches, there remains considerable dissatisfaction among business, industry, and the public with existing management strategies. Consequently, contaminated sediments and materials are the subject of intense technology development, such as beneficial reuse or in situ treatment. However, current decision analysis approaches, such as comparative risk assessment, benefit-cost analysis, and life cycle assessment, do not offer a comprehensive approach for incorporating the varied types of information and multiple stakeholder and public views that must typically be brought to bear when new technologies are under consideration. Alternatively, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a scientifically sound decision framework for management of contaminated materials or sites where stakeholder participation is of crucial concern and criteria such as economics, environmental impacts, safety, and risk cannot be easily condensed into simple monetary expressions. This article brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to the assessment of contaminated sediment management technologies. Additionally, it tests an MCDA approach for coupling expert judgment and stakeholder values in a hypothetical contaminated sediments management case study wherein MCDA is used as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies. PMID:16492181

Linkov, I; Satterstrom, F K; Kiker, G; Seager, T P; Bridges, T; Gardner, K H; Rogers, S H; Belluck, D A; Meyer, A

2006-02-01

 
 
 
 
101

The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today that investment hold a great significance because of the dynamics of the economic development and economic growth, and also because of the great inequalities, given by the information asymmetry. In this paper we first proposed to explore the determinants of investment that lead to making the investment decision and in the second part we analyze the competitive economic environment with regard to Romania and its implications for economic growth and investment decision.

Raluca Andreea POPA

2011-08-01

102

Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

1996-01-01

103

Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

1983-01-01

104

Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

Jahanzaib Haider

2013-02-01

105

Economic simulation to support investment decisions in pig farming.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of a model that simulates the consequences of long-term investment decisions in pig farming. The thesis is composed of six parts. Chapter 1 deals with a basic review of the literature on strategic planning under risk and uncertainty. A computer-based model for strategic pig farm planning, the Investment Simulation Model (ISM) was developed and described in chapter 2. ISM is a stochastic simulation model, which uses data of ...

Backus, G. B. C.

1994-01-01

106

Toward the integration of personality theory and decision theory in the explanation of economic and health behavior  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Trait-based personality psychology and economics have taken different approaches to understanding individual differences, with the former emphasizing variables derived from the factor analysis of trait assessments, and the latter emphasizing variables derived from formal decision theory. In a data set on trainee truckers in a large US company, we provide a systematic initial assessment of the empirical pattern of relationships between the elements from these two approaches by comparing the pr...

Rustichini, Aldo; Deyoung, Colin G.; Anderson, Jon; Burks, Stephen V.

2012-01-01

107

Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

Baicoianu, A.

2010-12-01

108

Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

Exley Catherine E

2011-05-01

109

Cardinal priority ranking based decision making for economic-emission dispatch problem  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper deals with the economic emission dispatch (EED) problem relating to real and reactive power scheduling of thermal power generating units. The formulated EED problem is solved using weighting method to generate non-inferior solutions which allows explicit trade-offs between objective levels for each non-inferior solutions. Fuzzy decision making methodology is exploited to decide the generation schedule. To access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained...

2009-01-01

110

Economic aspects in landscape decision-making: a participatory planning tool based on a representative approach  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, we develop a method for spatial decision support that combines economic efficiency â¿¿ measured by the concept op willingness to pay â¿¿ with a participatory planning tool, that allows for an active collaboration among the actors involved, in such a way that decision makers can draw on the outcomes in their spatial planning and design process. The method is called RITAM, a Dutch acronym for spatially explicit, participatory and interdisciplinary trade-off meth...

Heide, C. M.; Blaeij, A. T.; Heijman, W. J. M.

2008-01-01

111

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aor...

2009-01-01

112

Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

ChristopherSummerfield

2012-05-01

113

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

114

Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's ...

Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Fre?de?ric

2010-01-01

115

Analysis of threats to economic security of Lithuania  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

With reference to research as well as legal and statistical data, this article offers an interpretation of the "security" concept, perception of country's security, and analysis of drafting a national security strategy. It also highlights constituent parts of a national security strategy and an economic security strategy within the context of national strategies. Moreover, it shows how decisions (both operational and strategic) that are made within the context of national strategies depend on...

Grebliauskas, Artu?ras

2003-01-01

116

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about...

2010-01-01

117

Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

2000-06-01

118

Health economic analysis of screening  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified. Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

Krauth, Christian

2008-01-01

119

Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available techniques for quantitative economic impact assessment: partial budgeting, partial equilibrium analysis, input output analysis, and computable general equilibrium analysis. These techniques differ in ...

Soliman, T. A. A.; Mourits, M. C. M.; Oude Lansink, A. G. J. M.; Werf, W.

2010-01-01

120

Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

1985-01-01

 
 
 
 
121

Insertion Policy Selection Using Decision Tree Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The last-level cache (LLC) mitigates the impact of long memory access latencies in today's microarchitectures. The insertion policy in the LLC can have a significant impact on cache efficiency. However, a fixed insertion policy can allow useless blocks to remain in the cache longer than necessary, resulting in inefficiency. We introduce insertion policy selection using Decision Tree Analysis (DTA). The technique requires minimal hardware modification over the least-recently-used (LRU) replace...

Khan, Samira; Jimenez, Daniel A.

2010-01-01

122

The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game  

Science.gov (United States)

The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2003-06-01

123

Cost-of-illness analysis. What room in health economics?  

Science.gov (United States)

Cost-of-illness (COI) was the first economic evaluation technique used in the health field. The principal aim was to measure the economic burden of illness to society. Its usefulness as a decision-making tool has however been questioned since its inception. The main criticism came from welfare economists who rejected COIs because they were not grounded in welfare economics theory. Other attacks related to the use of the human capital approach (HCA) to evaluate morbidity and mortality costs since it was said that the HCA had nothing to do with the value people attach to their lives. Finally, objections were made that COI could not be of any help to decision makers and that other forms of economic evaluation (e.g. cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis) would be much more useful to those taking decisions and ranking priorities. Conversely, it is here suggested that COI can be a good economic tool to inform decision makers if it is considered from another perspective. COI is a descriptive study that can provide information to support the political process as well as the management functions at different levels of the healthcare organisations. To do that, the design of the study must be innovative, capable of measuring the true cost to society; to estimate the main cost components and their incidence over total costs; to envisage the different subjects who bear the costs; to identify the actual clinical management of illness; and to explain cost variability. In order to reach these goals, COI need to be designed as observational bottom-up studies. PMID:16139925

Tarricone, Rosanna

2006-06-01

124

A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective. PMID:23749462

Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

2013-09-01

125

Economic analysis for ecosystem service assessments  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The paper seeks to contribute to the expanding literature on ecosystem service assessment by considering its integration with economic analyses of such services. Focussing upon analyses for future orientated policy and decision making, we initially consider a single period during which ecological stocks are maintained at sustainable levels. The flow of ecosystems services and their contribution to welfare bearing goods is considered and methods for valuing resultant benefits are reviewed and ...

Bateman, Ian; Mace, Georgina; Fezzi, Carlo; Atkinson, Giles; Turner, Kerry

2010-01-01

126

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

2007-10-01

127

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

2007-10-01

128

Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

Adrian ZUGRAVU

2009-01-01

129

Economic analysis of production bottlenecks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To ev...

1995-01-01

130

Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to ill...

2009-01-01

131

Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to il...

2009-01-01

132

Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Environmental awareness and the recent environmental policies have forced many electric utilities to restructure their practices to account for their emission impacts. One way to accomplish this is by reformulating the traditional economic dispatch problem such that emission effects are included in the mathematical model. The economic/environmental dispatch problem is a multi-objective non-linear optimization problem with constraints. This study presents a hybrid approach to solve the combined economic-emission dispatch problem (CEED). In the first stage, a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) is employed to approximate the set of Pareto solution through an evolutionary optimization process. In the subsequent stage, a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach is adopted to rank these solutions from best to worst and to determinate the best solution in a deterministic environment with a single decision maker. This hybrid approach is tested on a six-unit system to illustrate the analysis process in present analysis. Pareto frontiers are obtained and the ranking of Pareto solutions is based on entropy weight and TOPSIS method. Results obtained show that the hybrid approach has a great potential in handling multi-objective optimization problem. (author)

Xuebin, Li [Research and Development Center, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430064 (China)

2009-05-15

133

An Analysis of Ethanol Investment Decisions in Thailand  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper analyzes the decision to invest in building ethanol plants in Thailand. We analyze the effects of economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies on ethanol investment using discrete response and fixed effects regression models. Results show that the main factor that affects the decision to inve...

Nisal Herath Mudiyanselage; -y Cynthia Lin, C.; Fujin Yi

2013-01-01

134

Decision and decision makers  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent us...

2010-01-01

135

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

1999-12-01

136

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

1999-01-01

137

Identifying Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Flood Control Decision - A Hydro-economic Hedging Framework  

Science.gov (United States)

Different from conventional studies developing reservoir operation models and treating forecast as input to obtain operation decisions case by case, this study issues a hydro-economic analysis framework and derives some general relationships between optimal flood control decision and streamflow forecast. By analogy with the hedging rule theory for water supply, we formulate reservoir flood control with a two-stage optimization model, in which the properties of flood damage (i.e., diminishing marginal damage) and the characteristics of forecast uncertainty (i.e., the longer the forecast horizon, the larger the forecast uncertainty) are incorporated to minimize flood risk. We define flood conveying capacity surplus (FCCS) variables to elaborate the trade-offs between the release of current stage (i.e., stage 1) and in the release of future stage (i.e., stage 2). Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the flood risk trade-off between the two stages is theoretically represented and illustrated by three typical situations depending on forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude. The analytical results also show some complicated effects of forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude on real-time flood control decision: 1) When there is a big flood with a small FCCS, the whole FCCS should be allocated to the current stage to hedge against the more certain and urgent flood risk in the current stage; 2) when there is a medium flood with a moderate FCCS, some FCCS should be allocated to the future stage but more FCCS still should be allocated to the current stage; and 3) when there is a small flood with a large FCCS, more FCCS should be allocated to the future stage than the current stage, as a large FCCS in the future stage can still induce some flood risk (distribution of future stage forecast uncertainty is more disperse) while a moderate FCCS in the current stage can induce a small risk. Moreover, this study also presents a hypothetical case study to analyze the flood risk under Pseudo probabilistic streamflow forecast (pPSF, deterministic forecast with variance) and Real probabilistic streamflow forecast (rPSF, ensemble forecast) forecast uncertainties, which shows ensemble forecast techniques are more efficient on mitigating flood risk.

Zhao, T.; Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2011-12-01

138

Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

139

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

2003-01-01

140

A case-based approach to decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper proposes a novel approach for integrating case-based reasoning (CBR) and decision theory for casebased decision analysis. CBR is employed as a methodology to reason from previous cases for building a decision model given a current situation, while decision theory is applied to the decision model learnt from previous cases to identify the most promising, secured, and rational choices. We have also tackled the issue of imprecise utility in individual cases and explained how fuzzy decision analysis can be conducted when case specific utilities are represented with fuzzy data. (orig.)

Xiong, Ning [Maelardalen Univ., Vaesteraas (Sweden). School of Innovation, Design and Engineering

2009-07-01

 
 
 
 
141

How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: Financial literacy and retirement readiness  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers' efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced finan...

2010-01-01

142

How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: financial literacy and retirement readiness  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers’ efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced fin...

2010-01-01

143

How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: Financial literacy and retirement readiness  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers’ efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced fin...

Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2010-01-01

144

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

145

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

TobiasKalenscher

2011-06-01

146

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in economic analysis. A detailed economic analysis is presented in a subsequent article. PMID:23066736

Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

2014-06-01

147

Use of risk analysis in safety decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evaluation of risks from a major energy system such as coal, nuclear and oil is receiving increasing attention. However, the best use of risk results in safety decisions must take into consideration many factors and still unresolved limitations. For example the different kinds of risks, the time periods when risk is manifested, occupational risks versus public risks, comparability of risk results, assessment of uncertainties and completeness. Even when the uncertainties are adequately assessed, methods for including them in quantitative comparisons are not well formulated. Likewise the uncertainty problem may prevent valid conclusions regarding the relative ranking of significant contributors to risk. In addition insights based on risk analysis performed on a global or national basis can significantly deviate the conclusions of a site specific analysis. Based on the results of a comparative study of risks of energy from coal, oil, gas, LWR, and solar power (STEC-system) this paper will explore the sensitivity of the results to the various parameters describing the risks and the limitations of the conclusions which can be drawn. The paper also suggests that it is more useful for societal decisions to incorporate risk analyses into cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effectiveness analysis allows identification of those energy systems and areas within an energy system where a given expenditure will produce the greatest reduction in risk. This is facilitated by the fact that risks cannot be reduced to zero and each incremental reduction in risk costs increasingly more. This paper will also suggest that there is a limit to continually reducing the risk because excessive expenditures on risk reduction will actually increase the risk to society. The paper will identify and investigate parameters which the results of cost-effectiveness studies are sensitive to

1983-01-01

148

On Economic Analysis of International Law  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available
The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

Nai-gen ZHANG

2006-06-01

149

Radiation vulcanization of polymer film - economical analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The first stage results are presented for the development of SKEP - based insulation film radiational vulcanization with the use of a powerful electron accelerator. To estimate direct economic effects of the new technology, the dose of 150 Kjoule/kg (15 Mrad) and the radiation energy utilization factor of 0.6 have been taken. The preliminary economic analysis on replacing the existing technology for production of the rubber film by the radiational vulcanization technology has indicated a possibility in principle of such a replacement with a positive economic effect

1975-10-03

150

The economic analysis of product diversity  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Product diversity is a long-debated issue in economics. We remind that mainly two questions have been given answers : (a) To which extent does the market provide diversity ? (b) Why should this diversity be promoted ? The first one stands out as the core of most articles on product diversity, whereas the second one is more evoked than really deepened. However, the economic analysis of product diversity stands out as a paradox. Actually, the definition of diversity itself has been somewhat for...

Ranaivoson, Heritiana

2005-01-01

151

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

152

Regional economic input and small area economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this research was to provide forecasts of the variables necessary to determine possible future levels of regional wood utilization for the TVA region. Second, the research was extended to subregional areas where the impacts that could result from the operation of fuel alcohol plants were estimated along with the impacts of increased use of biomass for residential heating. Long-term demand for forest products is determined by such factors as the future level of contract construction activity and growth in the paper, and lumber and wood industries. For these industries and others, the TVA regional economic simulation model (RESM) was used to produce long-run forecasts of employment, earnings, and gross product. For the subregional analysis, traditional export base multiplier analysis was used for impact estimation. 40 refs., 1 fig., 16 tabs.

Bohac, C.E.

1984-04-01

153

Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour ...

2010-01-01

154

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

2002-01-01

155

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints.

Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2002-12-15

156

Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

2014-01-01

157

Cloud service selection using multicriteria decision analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

Whaiduzzaman, Md; Gani, Abdullah; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

2014-01-01

158

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

2000-12-01

159

A Decision Aid Approach for Optimisation Problems Involving Several Economic Functions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.

Moeti Joseph Rangoaga

2012-09-01

160

The influence of personality on students' career decisiveness: A comparison between Chinese and German economics and management students  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Within the last decade, the relation between personality and career decisiveness has received increased attention. This study examines the country-specific influence of the Big Five personality traits on career decisiveness and its determinants, namely career related adaptability, career-related optimism, and career-related knowledge, among 406 Chinese and German economics and management students. The results show that personality traits affect career decisiveness and its determinants and tha...

Gunkel, Marjaana; Schlaegel, Christopher

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
161

Economic analysis in randomized control trials.  

Science.gov (United States)

In medical technology assessment, randomized control trials (RCTs) play an important role in determining the relative efficacy of compared treatments. As scarce resources necessitate choosing among options for care, comparing costs of alternative tests, treatments, or programs also becomes important. This study assessed the prevalence and completeness of economic analyses in RCTs published from January 1966 through June 1988. It was found that only 121 of over 50,000 published randomized trials (0.2%) included economic analyses. For a random sample of 51 of these 121 studies, results revealed a mean quality of research score of 0.32 (SD of measurement = 0.14) and a mean economic analysis completeness score of 0.52 (SD = 0.13) on scales of 0 to 1. It was also found that higher economic completeness scores were positively correlated with later dates of publication (r = 0.28, P = 0.046) and with the presence of a statement of study perspective (r = 0.38, P = 0.006). A near-zero correlation between the economic completeness and the quality of research scores was revealed. Also noted were several deficiencies among the economic analyses, including improper allocation of overhead costs, absence of sensitivity analyses, and the fact that only 28% of the 51 studies included some form of aggregation of treatment costs and consequences. Progress in health care depends on accurate assessments of both relative efficacy and costs. The quality of both needs improvement. PMID:1538611

Adams, M E; McCall, N T; Gray, D T; Orza, M J; Chalmers, T C

1992-03-01

162

The Model of the Analysis of Asymmetry of Social and Economic Development of Regions ?????? ??????? ?????????? ????????????? ????????  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The model of the analysis of asymmetry of social and economic development of regions is offered in the article. Based on methods of the multivariate statistical analysis, the model allows to reveal sources of the disbalances of development of regions and to raise quality of administrative decisions that concerning choice of tools of state regulation of development of regions.? ?????? ??????????? ?????? ??????? ?????????? ?????????-?????????????? ???????? ???????? (????, ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???????????? ??????????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ??????????? ???????? ?????????? ? ???????? ???????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????????????? ????????????? ???????? ????????.

Guryanova Lidiya S.

2012-02-01

163

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

1995-01-01

164

A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods...

Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

2011-01-01

165

DAUBERT DECISION APPLIED TO GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS  

Science.gov (United States)

Protection of the environment is, in part, dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Whether the decisions are part of the scientific process or relate to application of the laws governing people and their living conditions, good quality data are required/needed ...

166

Morice TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Morice Timber Supply Area (TSA) occupies nearly 1.5 million hectares in central interior British Columbia. This report first presents a profile of the TSA, including environmental setting, demographics, employment, communities, forest industry activity, other local industries such as tourism, agriculture, and mining, and First Nations. It then describes the timber supply status in the TSA, including the harvesting land base and annual allowable cut, and reviews the economic, environmental, community, and First Nations impacts in the TSA and the province resulting from three timber harvest scenarios. The appendix includes a description of the economic impact analysis methodology used.

NONE

1996-07-01

167

Economic impact analysis of load forecasting  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

1997-08-01

168

An economic analysis of fusion breeders  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included.

Delene, J.G.

1985-07-01

169

78 FR 59648 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee Meeting  

Science.gov (United States)

...place at the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW., Washington...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce...the economics profession, business, and government. This will...Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc. 2013-23490...

2013-09-27

170

Adding real options value to decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The power of Real Options analysis comes from its ability to correctly value projects where: there is market related uncertainty, and management has options that allow for a flexible response as the uncertainty unfolds. In this paper the Real Option Valuation (ROV) technique is shown as an additional tool for screening different petroleum field development concepts, since the discounted cash- flow (DCF) approach does not contemplate the 'real' value of the capital investment project as shown in the examples provided. It is clear that flexibility as well as active management, instead of reactive management, allows the company to capture and unlock capital investment opportunities that were once considered unattractive under static DCF decision making. In this paper two different field development concepts are modeled to demonstrate that each technology/architecture possesses different Real Option values embedded. These values indicate the upside potential of each concept and provide a more accurate valuation of the alternative on hand. The sole purpose of this paper is to stimulate the debate on the application of the ROV, and not to review the complex mathematical background associated with it. (author)

Dezen, Francisco; Morooka, Celso K. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica

2000-07-01

171

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

1995-01-01

172

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study  

Science.gov (United States)

Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical.

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, Andre-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2009-01-01

173

Trend analysis. [Oil and gas exploration, economic aspects  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning.

Smith, M. (Michael Smith and Associates, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)); Jones, D.R.

1991-03-01

174

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc.

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

175

Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

1992-04-28

176

Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites  

CERN Multimedia

In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

2013-01-01

177

Economic analysis of agroforestry systems with candeia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Cultivation of nonnative candeia under conditions of monoculture or in agroforestry systems comes as an interesting alternative to meet the market demand for timber from this particular species, while at the same time helping reduce pressure on native candeia fragments. The objective of this study was to analyze the economic feasibility of candeia cultivation, in risk situations, under conditions of monoculture and intercropped with other agricultural crops. The study site is located in the municipality of Baependi, southern Minas Gerais state, and the experiment was set up in an area of 3.2 hectares, using a randomized block design with six treatments and three replicates. The analysis of economic feasibility was performed using the Net Present Value method for an infinite planning horizon (VPL . For the risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was used. The agroforestry systems being tested were found to be economically feasible, noting that the system in which candeia is cultivated at spacing intervals of 10 x 2 meters, intercropped with corn in between rows, is more profitable and less risky than the others. Candeia cultivation as a monoculture is economically feasible, provided that soil tillage is done conventionally.

Charles Plínio de Castro Silva

2012-12-01

178

Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users to apply evidence-based medicine to make informed decisions when confronted with difficult clinical scenarios. A decision tree depicts potential alternatives and outcomes involved with a given decision. Probabilities and utilities are used to quantify the various options and help determine the best course of action. Sensitivity analysis allows users to explore the uncertainty of data on expected clinical outcomes. The decision maker can thereafter establish a preferred method of treatment and explore variables which influence the final clinical outcome. The present paper reviews the technique of decision analysis with particular focus on its application to clinical decision making.Keywords: decision analysis, patient preference, game theory, evidence-based medicine

Ilyas S Aleem

2008-12-01

179

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

180

Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

1978-05-17

 
 
 
 
181

Economic Analysis, Sustainability and Environmental Commons  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

When confronted with market weaknesses and failures determining sustainability problems for environmental common-pool resources, economic analysis has proposed government intervention as the only alternative available. Elinor Ostrom showed that this dichotomy between market and government is not always helpful, and proposed a more complex approach to institutions focusing on an active role of communities, social norms and a polycentric system of governance. This paper summarizes the main fact...

2013-01-01

182

Thermodynamic and economic analysis of CHP system  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Combined heat and power generation (CHP) from the same fuel source enhance energy utilization efficiency, improves energy supply reliability and provides greater protection to environment. The present paper discusses various factors that should be considered for developing a cogeneration plant and describes a simple methodology for its thermodynamic and economic analysis. A comparison between the connection and cogeneration plants shows considerable amount of saving with an attractive pay-back period. (author)

1999-10-01

183

THE INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENS IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMICAL CRISIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economical and financial crisis that broke out in the United States of America and that rapidly extended at international level, has affected, in the context of a globalized world, both solid economies from the Centre and Western Europe and the more fragile economies that are still in transition from the space of South?Eastern Europe and especially the Western Balkans. The lack of an effective involvement of the citizens from the Balkans in the decision making process at local and central level has represented, for the last 20 years, one of the important causes that allowed the level of the reforms carried out in this state to be an incipient one. As a consequence, in the present time, against some alarming economical realities and some economical indicators that show an increase of the number of unemployed people, it becomes necessary to have a drastic reduction of foreign investments or an increase of the public debt level as a percentage from the domestic gross productand an involvement of the citizens and of the specialists from various areas in the drafting and the implementation of public policies.

Adrian?Lucian Kanovici

2013-02-01

184

Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

Patrizia Berto

2008-06-01

185

Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

2010-09-01

186

Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

1975-01-01

187

Systems Analysis for Urban School Decision Making  

Science.gov (United States)

The model outlined here described sociological, political, economic and educational interactions in an urban school system in order to describe how the system is performing and might be amenable to change and reform." (Author)

Tannian, Francis; Magoon, Jon

1970-01-01

188

A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

1994-10-10

189

Application of grey relational analysis to agricultural management decision-making  

Science.gov (United States)

Agricultural production has always been a matter of national politics and the important topic of the economy. Economic and social development of any country in the world must be built on agricultural labor productivity highly developed, so the development decision-making of agriculture is very important. In agricultural management decision-making, due to the uncertainty of the selection of evaluation indicators and its weight, the extent and scope of sustainable use and so on, it caused the individual to evaluate a number of useful information is often missing, thus affecting the reliability and accuracy of evaluation results. In this paper, the grey relational analysis is introduced to use to agricultural management decision-making. The result indicated that this method is credible, and can provide a new method and a possible new way for agricultural managers in decision-making.

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Sun, Jiang-Bo; Wang, Fang

2009-07-01

190

Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly appropriate for an estimate on the costs of energy given the various technologies. Levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC) and levelized generation cost (LGC) have offered effective indicators for economic comparison among nuclear fuel cycles and were adopted to compare the fuel cycle options considered in this study. The unpredictable change of the unit costs of several key components due to the uncertainties can lead to considerable differences in levelized costs among the fuel cycle alternatives. To take these unavoidable uncertainties into account, a wide scale was applied to each unit cost and a distribution of levelized cost was also obtained

2012-05-01

191

Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

1995-01-01

192

Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 {approx}2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789{approx}919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015{approx}12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899{approx} 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324{approx}9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339{approx}464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766{approx}778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616{approx}4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 {approx}35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245{approx}458 billion won

Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B. [Kyungpook National University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2010-07-15

193

Economic growth analysis system: Reference manual  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of the report was to describe the development of a prototype Economic Growth Analysis Systems (E-GAS) modeling system. The E-GAS model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide for ozone nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions. The report details the design and development of the E-GAS system, and includes detailed descriptions of the workings of the E-GAS computer modeling software, and its relationships with internal modeling software components, like Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) models, and external software, like ROM, the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS), and the Urban Airshed Model (UAM).

1993-04-01

194

Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

2010-01-01

195

Socio-economic Value Analysis in Geospatial and Earth Observation: A methodology review (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

Many industries have long since realised that applying macro-economic analysis methodologies to assess the socio-economic value of a programme is a critical step to convincing decision makers to authorise investment. The geospatial and earth observation industry has however been slow to embrace economic analysis. There are however a growing number of studies, published in the last few years, that have applied economic principles to this domain. They have adopted a variety of different approaches, including: - Computable General Equilibrium Modelling (CGE) - Revealed preference, stated preference (Willingness to Pay surveys) - Partial Analysis - Simulations - Cost-benefit analysis (with and without risk analysis) This paper will critically review these approaches and assess their applicability to different situations and to meet multiple objectives.

Coote, A. M.; Bernknopf, R.; Smart, A.

2013-12-01

196

Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making  

Science.gov (United States)

Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

2006-01-01

197

Decision and decision makers  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

Anuta Porutiu

2010-12-01

198

Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas / Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstraçõ [...] es financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for manag [...] ers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

Sant' anna, Paulo Roberto de; Longo, Orlando Celso; Barone, Francisco Marcelo; Cova, Carlos José Guimarães; Oliveira, Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de.

199

Using multiple criteria decision analysis for supporting decisions of solid waste management.  

Science.gov (United States)

Design of solid-waste management systems requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because the systems can have complex and conflicting impacts on different stakeholders. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been found to be a fruitful approach to solve this design problem. In this paper, the MCDA approach is applied to solve the landfill selection problem in Regina of Saskatchewan Canada. The systematic approach of MCDA helps decision makers select the most preferable decision and provides the basis of a decision support system. The techniques that are used in this study include: 1) Simple Weighted Addition method, 2) Weighted Product method, 3) TOPSIS, 4) cooperative game theory, and 5) ELECTRE. The results generated with these methods are compared and ranked so that the most preferable solution is identified. PMID:12090287

Cheng, Steven; Chan, Christine W; Huang, Guo H

2002-01-01

200

Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

2011-12-01

 
 
 
 
201

Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

2012-08-01

202

Decision analysis for fracture management in cattle.  

Science.gov (United States)

Bovine fractures are common and each bovine patient is unique, presents innumerable challenges, and requires careful judgment. In cattle the fracture repair usually should be of acceptable quality to not cause a decrease in milk or meat production or interfere with natural breeding. The decision to treat a fracture in cattle is made by evaluating the cost and success rates of the treatment, the value of the animal, and the location and type of fracture. PMID:24534657

St Jean, Guy; Anderson, David E

2014-03-01

203

Public expenditure decision making: A comparative analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

An effort is made to draw out some of the fundamental distinctions amongst the many approaches to explaining government resource allocation behavior. The relative dominance of the environment and decision making imagery are suggested as two principal organizing dimensions. A brief survey of the literature demonstrates some of the principal themes that are apparent using this framework. Drawn from one of the many approaches, the Competing Aspiration Levels Model(CALM) is described and then app...

Cusack, Thomas R.

1987-01-01

204

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design.

Merkhofer, M.W. [Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, CA (United States); Gnirk, P. [RE/SPEC, Inc., Rapid City, SD (United States)

1991-11-25

205

Measuring Preferences for Cost-Utility Analysis: How Choice of Method May Influence Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Preferences for health are required when the economic value of health care interventions are assessed within the framework of cost-utility analysis. The objective of this paper is to review alternative methods for preference measurement and to evaluate the extent to which method may affect health care decision making. Two broad approaches to preference measurement that provide societal health state values are considered: 1) direct measurement and 2) preference-based health state classificatio...

Mcdonough, Christine M.; Tosteson, Anna N. A.

2007-01-01

206

Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

2012-08-01

207

Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: English Abstract in english The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it [...] necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

Gomes, Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro; Rangel, Luís Alberto Duncan; Fernandes, Priscila Pereira.

208

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1 Is an economic analysis needed? 2 Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3 If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4 If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5 How complex should the analysis be? 6 How should uncertainty be captured? 7 How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

Jit Mark

2013-01-01

209

Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis

Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

2014-01-01

210

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

2000-03-01

211

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

212

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

1998-01-01

213

Research Assistant/Associate in Economic Analysis of UK Energy ...  

Mar 22, 2013 ... Press Releases · Media Registration · UKERC Press Coverage · Find an expert ... \\in Economic Analysis of UK Energy Futures, University of Cambridge ... to \\completing) a PhD or equivalent in applied economics and be able ...

214

75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)  

Science.gov (United States)

...2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental...of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The CADDIS...CADDIS, which is a web-based decision support...

2010-06-22

215

75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)  

Science.gov (United States)

...CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental...of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site...developed CADDIS, a web-based decision support...

2010-09-24

216

Investment analysis and decision support for gas transmission on Java  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The following three project appraisal aspects of investments in the natural gas infrastructure of Java, Indonesia, are considered: (1) the determination of a pricing policy that correctly reflects the role of natural gas in the total fuel mix; (2) the construction of a long term forecast for the demand for natural gas; and (3) the use of sensitivity analysis to support decision making in investment planning. The steps needed to determine aggregate demand per geographical area, denoted as demand area, are discussed. The potential demands per sector and per area are determined by the amount of energy that can be replaced by natural gas. To estimate the effective demand one needs the netback value of gas in the production processes, and the opportunity for natural gas to penetrate into the different segments of the market. Assuming that gas is available, and combining the pricing policy and the netback values, the effective demand per subsector and per geographical area can be determined. Adding up the results of the partial analyses results in the aggregate demand per geographical area. Also the potential supply by the different gas reserves is analyzed, and the cost of developing the reserves is determined. Then preliminary investment plans (transmission packages) are formulated. Based on the pricing policy and the cost evaluation, the effective supply per reserve is estimated. Adding up the effective supplies results in aggregate supply. After balancing demand and supply, the financial and economic Net Present Values of the proposed investment plans (transmission packages) are calculated. Different investment plans are compared, and the best one is chosen. Sensitivity analysis is used to further analyze the optimal investment plan

Van Groenendaal, W.J.H.

1994-12-09

217

Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Practitioners as well as scholars of European integration have for decades debated why it takes so long for the European Union (EU) to adopt legislation and how to improve decision-making efficiency. Four studies have investigated decision-making speed using survival analysis, a particularly appropriate quantitative technique. In this paper I show that all four studies suffer from serious methodological problems that render their conclusions unreliable. I then outline where work in this area ...

Golub, Jonathan

2007-01-01

218

Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Practitioners as well as scholars of European integration have for decades debated why it takes so long for the European Union (EU) to adopt legislation and how to improve decision-making efficiency. Four studies have investigated decision-making speed using survival analysis, a particularly appropriate quantitative technique. In this paper I show that all four studies suffer from serious methodological problems that render their conclusions unreliable. I then outline wher...

2007-01-01

219

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

2000-05-01

220

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-makin...

Kharchenko, Volodymyr; Shmelova, Tetyana; Sikirda, Yuliya

2011-01-01

 
 
 
 
221

Restoration of seagrasses with economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The technique of restoration of populations of land plants is an old one that is well understood by scientists, agronomists, forestry experts, and the general public. However, only recently has attention been turned to restoring underwater areas with so-called seagrasses. From 1947 onwards, attempts have been made to restore suitable marine areas by using important species; however, only very recently (from August 1973) have large-scale restoration projects been undertaken. The efforts that have been made to replant various seagrass species by different techniques are reviewed, but only two seagrasses, Zostera noltii and Thalassia testudinum, have been restored on a large scale. Both of these can be restored successfully; however, the seeding method of Thalassia appears to be the most practical operation of all, and the most potentially valuable for future research into large-scale restoration, as it allows flexibility of location and of depth of transplantation, and involves the minimum of damage to the donor site. It also ensures the most rapid regrowth, besides being in the long run the most economical method yet devised of restoring a seagrass community. An economic model and analysis for restoration costs are given and finally a wide range of uses of restoration of such beds of seagrasses are enumerated.

Thorhaug, A. (Univ. of Miami, FL); Austin, C.B.

1976-01-01

222

INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incom...

Grigore, Maria Zenovia

2009-01-01

223

Economic Analysis of World Bank Education Projects and Project Outcomes  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper tests the hypothesis that World Bank education projects have a higher likelihood of being successful if at the time of appraisal, they underwent good quality economic analysis. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic

Vawda, Ayesha Yaqub; Moock, Peter; Gittinger, J. Price; Patrinos, Harry Anthony

2003-01-01

224

An Economic Analysis of Capital Flight from Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Available estimates of capital flight from Nigeria have several important limitations. This study takes cognizance of these limitations in estimating and subsequent analysis of trends of capital flight flows in Nigeria for the periods 1970 -2004 using the residual method of estimation, including necessary adjustments to account for the influence of trade faking and exchange rates movements. The study further seeks to verify if capital flight is indeed an important concern to economic management in Nigeria by exploring various economic issues that existing body of theoretical and empirical literature had linked to capital flight. For most of the periods, capital flight estimates had positive sign, indicating that residents consistently took capital out of Nigeria. The study further documented that trade faking is an important means through which capital flight is effected in Nigeria, with evidences that confirmed the existence of financial revolving door relationship between capital flight and external indebtedness in Nigeria. The study emphasized the need for decisive policies to strengthen macroeconomic management and macro-organizational fundamentals. A rather flexible trade and exchange regimes that result in a lowering down of tariff duties, and a more market determined exchange rates, are likely to wipe out the incentives for fabrication of traded values of exports and imports.

Taiwo Olubanjo Ajilore

2010-10-01

225

Technological and economic analysis on particle removing  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The paper provides a theoretical basis for the selection of equipment for catching polluting particulates and analysed their efficiency for removal of total suspended particulates (TSPs) and respirable particles. Economic analysis was performed considering the investment cost of the equipment, the operating cost and the depreciation cost. Cost of removal of TSPs and PM10s was compared for different pieces of pollution control equipment. Of the high-efficiency equipment, venturi scrubbers proved most costly and electrostatic precipitators were cheapest. Cost of removal of PM10 is much higher than that of TSP using medium efficiency equipment but there is no significant difference when using high-efficiency equipment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs.

Li Yi-Li; Li Jian; Li Jing-xin; Liang Wen-jun; Jin Yu-quan [Beijing University of Technology, Beijing (China). College of Environmental and Energy Engineering

2007-11-15

226

The Canadian climate change economic analysis forum  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A multi-year forum on the economic analysis of climate change was proposed. The objective of the forum would be to provide a process and structure for analyzing the benefits and costs of actions and policy options related to climate change protection. Politics, science, technology and society were listed as being the principal factors influencing climate change policy. Since each of these factors are subject to change, it was emphasized that an ongoing forum to help clarify assumptions, measures and analytic priorities would be beneficial. To validate the concept, a feasibility study was carried out, results of which are summarized. An organizational structure, a provisional business plan, and a multi-phased implementation plan are also provided. 2 figs.

Guthrie, B. [Conference Board of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

1998-09-01

227

Basic relationships for LTA economic analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Operating costs based on data of actual and proposed airships for conventional lighter than air craft (LTA) are presented. An economic comparison of LTA with the B-47F is included, and possible LTA economic trends are discussed.

Ausrotas, R. A.

1975-01-01

228

Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

2008-11-28

229

How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

Koçak, �zgecan; �zcan, Serden

2013-01-01

230

Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

Woelbert E

2013-03-01

231

Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

1991-01-01

232

Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing F = e3.760348 x Q0.571771 x V0.425999 x eu. That is, for the marketing force, Output elasticity of marketing flow and flow rate were determined as 0.571771 and 0.425999.

Yang Dong-Hong

2013-01-01

233

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Science.gov (United States)

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

2013-12-01

234

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

T. P. Karjalainen

2013-07-01

235

Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

James K. Lein

2012-09-01

236

Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the avai...

Catrinu, Maria

2006-01-01

237

Correlation Analysis Between Scientific and Technological Progress and Economic Development  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

There exists an interdependence between scientific and technological progress and economic development. The development of science and technology brings along economic development, meanwhile economic development offers powerful support for it. Based on statistical analysis of the relationship between Sci-Tech investment and economic growth in recent decade, this article explores the dependencies between them, and gives us a measurement model. The result suggests that local Sci-Tech i...

Li, Chengju

2012-01-01

238

An Economic Analysis of Security Policies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key public policy trade-offs are outlined, in particular between se...

Bru?ck, Tilman

2004-01-01

239

An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and ...

2013-01-01

240

PROVE-IT trial: economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Introduction: the PROVE-IT (“Intensive versus moderate lipid lowering with statins after acute coronary syndromes” was a comparison of pravastatin 40 mg/die versus atorvastatin 80 mg/die in patients with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of pravastatin in Italian patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: the analysis is conducted on the basis of clinical outcomes of the PROVE-IT study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of pravastatin (40 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (number of deaths and frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 24 months. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of pravastatin or atorvastatin therapy over the 2 years period amounted to approximately 664.684 millions euro and 909.006 euro per 1,000 patients respectively. Atorvastatin was more efficacious compared to pravastatin and the overall cost of care per 1,000 patients over 24 months of follow-up was estimated at 2.58 millions euro in the pravastatin and 2.57 millions euro in the atorvastatin group, resulting into a cost saving of about 11.000 euro. Discussion: this study demonstrates that high dose atorvastatin treatment leads to a reduction of direct costs for the National Health System. Atorvastatin therapy is dominant since it is both less costly and more effective than pravastatin. Results were sensitive to either clinical or economic variables.

Simona de Portu

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
241

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

242

Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Decision Support Systems: The Context of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available  This research aimed to examine the main factors that influence the successful adoption of Decision SupportSystems (DSS in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA. It investigated a set of factors which are;System Characteristics (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU & Perceived usefulness (PU, Technical Aspects(information technology infrastructure & information systems interoperability, and Organizational Aspects (topmanagement support (TMS, management style (MS, & organizational structure (OS.A questionnaire was distributed to a sample of (161 respondents to collect primary data, & based on aconvenience sample the response rate was about 79%. Furthermore, the findings were analyzed using theStatistical Package for Social Software (SPSS, with an R2 of 35.3%, linear Multiple Regression analysis revealedthat all research variables have significant effect on successful adoption of DSS.The results indicated that PU & IT infrastructures have a positive & significant influence on the successfuladoption of DSS. Whereas, PEOU, IS interoperability, TMS, MS, & OS have no significant influence on thesuccessful adoption of DSS. Finally, the findings indicated that no significant statistical differences existedbetween respondents’ perceptions towards DSS adoption in terms of their demographic characteristics. Based onthe research findings & conclusions, a number of recommendations & future research suggestions are proposed.

Fairouz Mosleh Aldhmour

2012-01-01

243

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

2007-02-01

244

Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

2013-07-01

245

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

246

Traffic Analysis Toolbox Volume II. Decision Support Methodology for Selecting Traffic Analysis Tools.  

Science.gov (United States)

This report provides an overview of the role of traffic analysis tools in the transportation analysis process and provides a detailed decision support methodology for selecting the appropriate type of analysis tool for the job at hand. An introduction to ...

K. Jeannotte A. Chandra V. Alexiadis A. Skabardonis

2004-01-01

247

Cost-Benefit Analysis: Tools for Decision Making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Suggests that cost-benefit analysis can be a helpful tool for assessing difficult and complex problems in child care facilities. Defines cost-benefit analysis as an approach to determine the most economical way to manage a program, describes how to analyze costs and benefits through hypothetical scenarios, and discusses some of the problems…

Bess, Gary

2002-01-01

248

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are considered. The basis of the generalized analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in economic systems is offered.

Kuzemin, Alexander; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav

2008-01-01

249

Clustering analysis and decision-making by ?rank of links?  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper, formalism for cluster analysis, based on the “Rank of Links”-theory, is suggested. It tackles resemble measures, cross-distance matrices, “rank of links”-metric and some other cluster characteristics. Using these notions, an algorithm of clustering has been designed. Its application to estimation and prognosis of decision-making process shows nice workability and reliability.

Verulava O.

2002-01-01

250

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salicylic acid and cryotherapy for cutaneous warts: an economic decision model  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Objectives: To estimate the costs of commonly used treatments for cutaneous warts, as well as their health benefits and risk. To create an economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatments, and, as a result, assess whether a randomised controlled trial (RCT) would be feasible and cost-effective. Data sources: Focus groups, structured interviews and observation of practice. Postal survey sent to 723 patients. A recently updated Cochrane syst...

Thomas, K. S.; Keogh-brown, M. R.; Chalmers, J. R.; Fordham, R. J.; Holland, R. C.; Armstrong, S. J.; Bachmann, M. O.; Howe, A. H.; Rodgers, S.; Avery, A. J.; Harvey, I.; Williams, H. C.

2006-01-01

251

FAIR 2.0 - A decision-support tool to assess the environmental and economic consequences of future climate regimes  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This report describes policy decision-support-tool FAIR 2.0 (Framework to Asses International Regimes for differentiation of commitments), developed with the aim of assisting policy makers in assessing the environmental and economic implications of international climate regimes for differentiation of future commitment beyond 2012 compatible with the Climate Change Convention objective of stabilising the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (Article 2). The FAIR 2.0...

Mgj, Elzen Den; Lucas P

2007-01-01

252

A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processes.  

Science.gov (United States)

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) represents the most important tool in the health economics literature to quantify and qualify the reasoning behind the optimal decision process in terms of the allocation of resources to a given health intervention. However, the practical application of CEA in the regulatory process is often limited by some critical barriers, and decisions in clinical practice are frequently influenced by factors that do not contribute to efficient resource allocation, leading to inappropriate drug prescription and utilization. Moreover, most of the time there is uncertainty about the real cost-effectiveness profile of an innovative intervention, with the consequence that it is usually impossible to obtain an immediate and perfect substitution of a product with another having a better cost-effectiveness ratio. The objective of this article is to propose a rational approach to CEA within regulatory processes, basing our analysis in a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework and proposing an extension of the application of well known tools (such as the expected value of information) to such cases. The regulator can use these tools to identify the economic value of reducing the uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness profile of the several alternatives. This value can be compared with the one that is generated by the actual market share of the different treatment options: one that is the most cost effective and others in the same therapeutic category that, despite producing clinical benefits, are less cost effective. PMID:19712008

Baio, Gianluca; Russo, Pierluigi

2009-01-01

253

Business Conditions and Economic Analysis: An Experiential Learning Program for Economics Students  

Science.gov (United States)

The authors describe the Business Conditions and Economic Analysis (BCEA) program developed at the University of Richmond. The BCEA program is an experiential learning format for economics students built on the success of student-managed investment funds (SMIF) in finance. In its initial implementation, the BCEA group conducts domestic and global…

Dolan, Robert C.; Stevens, Jerry L.

2006-01-01

254

Decision-making for south Florida water resources: ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling  

Science.gov (United States)

Water, sustainability, and climate issues faced by South Florida are complex and pressing. There are multiple competing water demands, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR), and exposure to climate variability that expose the region to a unique severity and diversity of challenges. This project is investigating strategies for the optimization of water use over a 50-year time horizon. The basis for optimization is hydro-economic and seeks to incorporate the value of ecosystem services - especially fisheries and carbon dynamics - in south Florida, along with more traditional agricultural, industrial, and urban economic drivers. Behavioral aspects of water management and land use planning decision-making under different potential future scenarios are also being studied. In particular, how individuals' perceptions of risks to the water supply differ, and how these differences influence their decisions when faced with an uncertain future, such as the one faced by south Floridians due to uncertainty about sea level rise. Experiments will determine how information type and uncertainty levels impact decisions made by individuals and stakeholder groups. The results of the experiments will be used to devise more effective decision-making forums that foster more widespread support of regional water management plans.

Sukop, M. C.; Bolson, J.

2013-12-01

255

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

256

Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks  

CERN Multimedia

The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

2004-01-01

257

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

258

The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making. PMID:20382461

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2010-06-01

259

Analysis And Assistant Planning System Ofregional Agricultural Economic Inform  

Science.gov (United States)

For the common problems existed in regional development and planning, we try to design a decision support system for assisting regional agricultural development and alignment as a decision-making tool for local government and decision maker. The analysis methods of forecast, comparative advantage, liner programming and statistical analysis are adopted. According to comparative advantage theory, the regional advantage can be determined by calculating and comparing yield advantage index (YAI), Scale advantage index (SAI), Complicated advantage index (CAI). Combining with GIS, agricultural data are presented as a form of graph such as area, bar and pie to uncover the principle and trend for decision-making which can't be found in data table. This system provides assistant decisions for agricultural structure adjustment, agro-forestry development and planning, and can be integrated to information technologies such as RS, AI and so on.

Han, Jie; Zhang, Junfeng

260

Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

1984-05-01

 
 
 
 
261

Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

SvenjaSimon

2012-04-01

262

Handbook of Private and Economic Profitability Analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

The report is a handbook for measuring private and economic profitability. Profitability quantifies the ability to generate revenue in excess of the cost of the inputs and factors of production used in the production of a particular good (output). Private...

D. J. Jansen A. M. Ruiz de Gamboa

1988-01-01

263

Socio-Economic Analysis of Energy Projects.  

Science.gov (United States)

The aim of this study is to develop methods for systematic consideration of the factors which are not included in the business-economic calculations of energy projects. The principles of judging the investments are analysed. Recommendations and thumb rule...

L. Hjalmarsson B. Walfridsson

1986-01-01

264

Economic Analysis Procedure for Earthquake Hazard Mitigation.  

Science.gov (United States)

The 1990s represents a period in which both government and industry are attempting to reduce expenditures, focusing on economics of operation as a priority problem. Both are undergoing a downsizing to eliminate unnecessary functions and personnel with an ...

J. M. Ferritto

1997-01-01

265

Career Decisions from the Decider's Perspective  

Science.gov (United States)

The authors used a phenomenological research method to investigate the career decision-making experiences of 17 employed adults. Thematic results from interview data analysis were organized within 3 overarching themes: decisions centered on relational life, decisions centered on personal meaning, and decisions centered on economic realities. Study…

Amundson, Norman E.; Borgen, William A.; Iaquinta, Maria; Butterfield, Lee D.; Koert, Emily

2010-01-01

266

Economic behavior can be a guide to establishing a decision theory  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Among several different and contradictory possible decision models, Savage's behaviorist construction eliminates all but one. In this way, it guarantees decision theory its exclusiveness and its legitimacy. This unique theory associates measurement of risks by subjective probabilities, measurement of consequences by psychological utilities, and measurement of strategies by their combination, which is the mathematical expectation (weighted average) of utility.

Charreton, R.; Bourdaire, J.M.

1983-05-09

267

Ordinal benefits vs economic benefits as a reference guide for policy decision making. The case of hydrogen technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The paper presents an Investment Evaluation Method in Energetic-Economic-Environmental field which is particularly indicated for Hydrogen Technologies because it enables us to account not only for the traditional economic return and the possible negative externalities (damages), but also for: i) the induced economic benefits at a social level; ii) those positive (and negative) externalities usually considered as being estimable in economic terms as ''proxies''; iii) and, finally, Ordinal Benefits. That is those Benefits which are never ever reducible to a simple monetary value, nonetheless they can always be object of a possible estimation, still in economic terms, by means of values understood as a ''cipher''. The advantages of a Decision Making Process based on Ordinal Benefits (vs traditional economic benefits) will be shown with reference to the evaluation of well-calibrated Incentives concerning Hydrogen Fuel Cells, both under static and dynamic conditions. Such an evaluation criterion, which is preferentially based on the estimated external Benefits to be ''remunerated'' rather than on possible damages to be internalized, represents a valid reference guide for a Policy Maker. This precisely because it is always orientated toward the genesis of the Maximum Ordinality Excess. (author)

Giannantoni, Corrado [ENEA - ' ' Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment' ' , Casaccia Research Center, S. Maria di Galeria, 00060 Rome (Italy)

2009-12-15

268

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

1997-10-12

269

Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?  

Science.gov (United States)

Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this information, is likely to be better than that without it, whether it leads to faster termination of uneconomic projects or the allocation of more appropriate resources to attractive projects. PMID:15693724

Miller, Paul

2005-01-01

270

Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

Ihsan Yüksel

2012-11-01

271

EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

Andreea Lorena RADU

2011-06-01

272

Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

P. Gnip

2009-12-01

273

Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

Steven Simoens

2010-04-01

274

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

1982-06-11

275

Upcycling wastes with biogas production: : An exergy and economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The massive consumption of finite resources creates high economical and environmental costs due to material dispersion and waste generation. In order to overcome this, by-products and wastes may be used, to avoid the use of virgin materials and benefit from the useful inherent energy of the material. By adding value to the material, economic and environmental performance can be improve, which is called upcycling. In this paper, an exergy and economic analysis of a biogas process is examined. ...

Martin, Michael; Parsapour, Amin

2012-01-01

276

The granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available After the first oil crisis the world’s countries had to face recession caused by the high oil prices, and the role of energy consumption became a core element of economics. Many studies examined (and examine today connection between energy consumption, economic growth and energy efficiency. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to this topic with an analysis of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth in East-Central Europe.

T.S. Szép

2014-03-01

277

Economic value and environmental impact (EVEI) analysis of biorefinery systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The selection of product portfolios, processing routes and the combination of technologies to obtain a sustainable biorefinery design according to economic and environmental criteria represents a challenge to process engineering. The aim of this research is to generate a robust methodology that assists process engineers to conceptually optimise the environmental and economic performances of biorefinery systems. A novel economic value and environmental impact (EVEI) analysis methodology is pre...

Martinez-hernandez, E.; Campbell, G.; Sadhukhan, J.

2013-01-01

278

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

279

Socio-economic impact analysis in the NEPA process  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) regulations require environmental impact statements to assess direct and indirect effects on a number of different environmental resource categories, including economic and social effects. However, NEPA regulations do not dictate the scope of the socio-economic analyses or specify which analytical procedures must be employed. As a result, socio-economic impact analyses vary considerably across NEPA documents in both the methodology of analysis and in the models used to quantify impacts. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of socio-economic analyses in NEPA documents and present strategies for ensuring that the socio-economic analyses are focused on the most relevant socio-economic indicators, while still conforming to the full intent of NEPA. This paper will provide guidance on what factors should be considered when identifying the economic indicators to be assessed. The paper will also describe and discuss various types of models currently used to quantify economic impacts in NEPA documents, and the comparative advantages and disadvantages of these models. In addition, the definition of the appropriate Return On Investment in relation to the model used and the analysis performed will be discussed. The offices of the Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, and the Food and Drug Administration present real world examples of innovative approaches to socio-economic impact analysis.

Karnovitz, A.; McQueen, S. [Tetra Tech, Inc., Falls Church, VA (United States)

1997-08-01

280

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to clarify the role of nuclear power generation under the circumstances of growing concerns about environmental impact and to help decision making in electricity sector. In this study, efforts are made to estimate electricity power generation cost of major power options by incorporating additional cost to reduce environmental impact and to suggest an optimal plant mix in this case. (Author)

1992-01-01

 
 
 
 
281

Addressing socio-economic and environmental impacts in sewer networks' rehabilitation decision making tools  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Rehabilitation of sewer networks has to serve various objectives, both in terms of present general performance, and in terms of long term sustainability. Part of these stakes are external to the sewerage utility operation, such as social impacts of sewer failures, or social impacts of works. These external impacts are to some extend considered in real life decisions, and should therefore also be taken into account in decision support systems. CARE-S project (2003-05 EU 5th Framework Program),...

Werey, C.; Larabi, Z.; Rozan, A.

2009-01-01

282

Optimization of MR Protocols: A Statistical Decision Analysis Approach  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

A new method of optimizing MRI data acquisition protocols is presented. Tissues are modeled with probability density functions (PDFs) of tissue parameter values (such as T1, T2). The imaging data acquisition process is modeled as a mapping from a tissue parameter space to a signal strength space. Tissue parameter PDFs are mapped to signal strength PDFs for each tissue in a clinical problem. The efficacy of an MRI protocol is evaluated using the methods of statistical decision analysis applied...

Mcveigh, Elliot R.; Bronskill, Michael J.; Henkelman, R. Mark

1988-01-01

283

Subject economic thinking as an economic good: analysis of the phenomenon in the context of the conditions of C. Menger  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Understanding of economic thinking in terms of economic good creates the supposition for a detailed study of this phenomenon to enhance the individual socio-economic competitiveness of human, improvement of approaches to the economic education, setting priorities and mechanisms to improve the competitiveness of the national economy as a whole. In this connection, the analysis is made and interpretation of the phenomenon of subject economic thinking as an economic good is presented.

Bogunov Leonid Aleksandrovich

2012-06-01

284

Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

2009-09-01

285

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information System Framework for Hazardous Waste Transport Sustainability  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study introduces a combination of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Geographic Information System (GIS approaches to the hazardous waste transport problem. There are risks associated with a truck being involved in an accident during shipment of hazardous materials (HAZMAT and/or hazardous wastes. The level of impact posed to surroundings depends on many factors such as population density, No. of sensitive locations, proximity to rescue units and security. It is essential that all of the related factors and criteria involved be considered prior to making decisions about route selection. Certain routing criteria and standards for HAZMAT transport have been developed in many developed countries such as the United States, Canada and European countries with the purpose of risk avoidance during shipment of these materials. However, a lack of a comprehensive framework for the selection of HAZMAT and/or hazardous waste routes that the transporter can use for aiding their decisions is a major concern in most developing countries. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for making optimum hazardous waste transport routing choices by incorporating multiple factors and sub-factors. Factors and sub-factors are divided into three main categories; economic, environmental and societal (exposure and emergency response issues that are in line with the sustainability paradigm. The proposed framework can contribute to the thought processes of governmental policy-makers and carriers when they evaluate possible routes and are making their decision in order to minimize damage from transporting hazardous waste.

S. Monprapussorn

2009-01-01

286

Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

1986-07-01

287

A Comparative Analysis: The Meaning of Home Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

The 1899-1908 Lake Placid Conferences' definition of home economics as a professional field of study was compared to the 1979 meaning in Home Economics: A Definition, a paper by Brown and Paolucci, to provide clarity and future direction for the field. A componential analysis was conducted with the following domains: family, religion, politics,…

Jax, Judy

288

Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

2011-09-01

289

Analysis of the Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in Beijing  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article, we studied the convergence of regional economic growth in Beijing. We divided 18 districts and counties in Beijing into four economic regions, utilized the method of Gini coefficient decomposition to educe the  -convergence didn’t exist in the regional economic growth of Beijing. At the same time, we utilized the panel data model and the spatial panel data model analysis to educe that the  - absolute convergence didn’t exist in the regional economic growth of Beijing, but the  -conditional convergence existed, and analyzed the reason forming that  -conditional convergence.

Daqing Shen

2009-02-01

290

Integrating Economics into Water Resources Systems Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

The need to integrate economic and hydro-engineering models has been long recognized and is the subject of several articles and literature surveys. However difficulties of obtaining sufficient precision of economic data to span the significant differences in both spatial and temporal scales presents challenges, and opportunities for the use of new technologies. Most hydrologic models run on a daily time step, or at a minimum, monthly, whereas many economic models, particularly of agriculture, are estimated on an annual time step. The asymmetry in difficulty of downscaling versus aggregating is briefly reviewed, and an example of down-scaling irrigation water value functions to a monthly time step, using information from crop water use models is presented. Similarly, the spatial cell resolution of hydro-engineering models is usually much finer than economic models, which are usually aggregated at the level that prices or production quantities are reported. A method of downscaling regional measures of crop production and water use to the field level using the additional information from remote sensing measurements is demonstrated in the context of agricultural production in California's central valley. A problem that arises is that for spatial crop production the available data from Landsat measurements processed by NAAS in pixel form is very noisy when overlaid onto a field level boundary GIS layer. For complex cropping systems such as those found in California, it is not uncommon to have three different categories of pixel identification in the same field. The approach discussed uses a cross-entropy approach and additional data from locally measured sources, to estimate the most likely uniform crop in any given field. In addition, constraints on the combination of different sized fields and the total regional acreage measured by local county commissioners provides additional information and structure on the estimates. Initial results show significant noise in the estimates, but given the consistency of the sampling method and relative stability of crop types grown in a given region, this seems a natural application for improved estimates from sequential filtering. Over time with improved ground-truthing, we can expect steadily improving precision of field level crop estimates. Using these approaches, economic analysts can construct models of water value functions that are able to be empirically estimated on spatial and temporal scales that are compatible with hydro-economic models.

Howitt, R.

2012-12-01

291

Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

2007-10-02

292

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

2011-04-01

293

Diversification: an economic framework for analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article demonstrates an economist's approach to some important questions about utility-company diversification: how, where, when, and why. Drawing on work in the economics of finance and of competition, the author develops a framework for considering where a utility should diversify and what problems it is likely to encounter along the way. In this development an important step is taken toward learning whether a utility should diversify at all.

Conerly, W.B.

1982-09-16

294

Ecological-Economic Analysis of Wetlands  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Wetlands all over the world have been lost or are threatened in spite of various international agreements and national policies. This is caused by: (1) the public nature of many wetlands products and services; (2) user externalities imposed on other stakeholders; and (3) policy intervention failures that are due to a lack of consistency among government policies in different areas (economics, environment, nature protection, physical planning, etc.). All three causes are related to information...

Turner, R. K.; Den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Barendregt, A.; Maltby, E.

1998-01-01

295

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

Marius-Corneliu MARINA?

2010-11-01

296

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study gives special emphasis on the forecast of maximum power. As long as stable supply of power is concerned, maximum power plays more important role than electricity demand itself. Several methods for the forecast of maximum power are analyzed and tested. A model entitled Uri model is selected and as a result maximum power forecast is performed until the year 2005 using this model. It is also endeavored to build elaborated and consistent series of data on the O and M cost of power plant that is necessary for the decision of optimal plant mix. Finally, electric system expansion planning is performed through WASP using data built above. (author)

1990-01-01

297

DISPLA: decision information system for procurement and logistics analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper describes an information-exchange system for Display systems acquisition and logistics support. DISPLA (Decision Information System for Procurement and Logistics Analysis) is an Internet-based system concept for bringing sellers (display system and component suppliers) and buyers (Government Program Offices and System Integrators) together in an electronic exchange to improve the acquisition and logistics analysis support of Flat Panel Displays for the military. A proof-of-concept demonstration is presented in this paper using sample data from vendor Web sites and Government data sources.

Calvo, Alberto B.; Danish, Alexander J.; Lamonakis, Gregory G.

2002-08-01

298

An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

S. Chinnammai

2013-01-01

299

Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

1987-01-01

300

The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

2003-01-01

 
 
 
 
301

A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia is to establish a nuclear research facility. Selection of a research reactor type for such a case is not an easy task. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors are selected for this study. These are: the University of Michigan Ford Nuclear Reactor (FNR), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), Georgia Institute of Technology Research Reactor (GTRR), and University of Wisconsin Nuclear Reactor (UWNR). The IFDA computer code, which based on the fuzzy set theory is applied here. The results show that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best

1985-01-01

302

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

1993-01-01

303

Journal interaction. A bibliometric analysis of economics journals  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Citation analysis is widely used as an evaluation method within sciences. This paper seeks to qualify citation analyses by adding insight into the sciences under investigation. The paper presents a method of citation analysis using multiple linear regressions on both cited and citing economic journals. The proposed method controls for the different characteristics of the journals as well as for their degree of interaction. The paper shows some of the hidden structures within the economic scie...

Frandsen, Tove Faber

2005-01-01

304

A New Analytical Model for the Analysis of Economic Processes  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this work it is presented a new powerful model, well checked in the last years with the analysis of the dynamics of nano-bio-structures. The model permits the detailed study of the dynamical evolution of systems also at macro-level, offering analytical relations concerning the velocity and the distance of an economic variable, so as its diffusion in time; it permits the analysis of economic processes in general. In this paper it will be focused in particular about economic cycles.

Paolo Di Sia

2013-07-01

305

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON INCENTIVES FOR INVESTMENTS IN PLUM TREES PLANTING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we consider the application of Cost/Benefit Analysis procedure in the decision process on socialeconomic profitability of subsidy implementation for investments in agricultural production, based on newly planted plum trees. Cost/Benefit Analysis has many advantages over the other common methods. It proved to be especially useful in the agricultural production, because it is possible to estimate the profitability of investments in the special conditions of agricultural production, taking into account many factors of its economic efficiency, as well as main effects that individual producers and the whole social community can expect. The application of Cost/Benefit Analysis, based on the data gathered for Bosnia and Herzegovina, enabled insight into the profitability of the existing subsidy programs for investments in plum trees planting, that take place in the conditon of the whole economy transition and high degree of rural population unemployment.

Marijan Kari?

2004-12-01

306

“AGREEMENTS”, “DECISIONS” AND “CONCERTED PRACTICES”: KEY CONCEPTS IN THE ANALYSIS OF ANTICOMPETITIVE AGREEMENTS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In their economic activity, undertakings conclude many agreements between them. But agreements between undertakings which can distort the competition -anticompetitive agreements- are prohibited. The Romanian and EU law prohibit “all agreements between undertakings, decisions by associations of undertakings and concerted practices which have as their object or effect the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition”. However, the terms ”agreements”, ”decisions” or ”concerted practices” are nowhere defined in the EU Treaties or in the Romanian law. These terms are key concepts in the analysis of anticompetitive agreements which can distort the competition. In the lack of a legal definition, these concepts have generated a complex body of jurisprudence, which has to be identified. The analysis of these key concepts necessarily entails the conceptual delimitation of the notions. On this purpose, the relevant legal provisions will be identified in the Romanian and EU law, as well as the decisions of the European Court of Justice in this matter. The present paper intends to present the conceptual evolution of the analysed notions, paying special attention to concerted practices and to parallel behaviour in price fixing on the market.

CRISTINA CUCU

2013-05-01

307

“AGREEMENTS”, “DECISIONS” AND “CONCERTED PRACTICES”: KEY CONCEPTS IN THE ANALYSIS OF ANTICOMPETITIVE AGREEMENTS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In their economic activity, undertakings conclude many agreements between them. But agreements between undertakings which can distort the competition -anticompetitive agreements- are prohibited. The Romanian and EU law prohibit 'all agreements between undertakings, decisions by associations of undertakings and concerted practices which have as their object or effect the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition'. However, the terms 'agreements', 'decisions' or 'concerted practices' are nowhere defined in the EU Treaties or in the Romanian law. These terms are key concepts in the analysis of anticompetitive agreements which can distort the competition. In the lack of a legal definition, these concepts have generated a complex body of jurisprudence, which has to be identified. The analysis of these key concepts necessarily entails the conceptual delimitation of the notions. On this purpose, the relevant legal provisions will be identified in the Romanian and EU law, as well as the decisions of the European Court of Justice in this matter. The present paper intends to present the conceptual evolution of the analysed notions, paying special attention to concerted practices and to parallel behaviour in price fixing on the market.

Cristina CUCU

2013-06-01

308

The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.  

Science.gov (United States)

The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts. PMID:20146758

Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

2010-01-01

309

The economics of sexual and reproductive health : resources for training sexual & reproductive health professionals in economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This resource book contains a collection of booklets on various aspects of the economics of sexual and reproductive health, including: (1) cost and expenditure analysis; (2) determining the costs of SRH programmes; (3) cost-effectiveness analysis; (4) using economic analysis to justify public intervention for SRH; (5) economic approaches to equity; (6) the economic impact of sexual and reproductive health; (7) estimating what is spent on sexual and reproductive health; (8) estimating future f...

Compernolle, P.; Vassall, A.; Baltussen, R.; Jansen, E.; Weissman, E.

2008-01-01

310

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

311

MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

VENUGOPAL .B. S

2013-01-01

312

Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

1996-01-01

313

DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC-ORGANISATIONAL ENTITIES OPERATING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The complete operating cycle of the organisational economic entity provides a connection between its actions and those actions that take place in the environment where it operates, which are deemed to be natural reactions of the environment to the operation of the organisational economic entity. The way in which the environment reacts to its operation must be understood as being the nature of the relations between events, factors and structures of the environment and not as an answer to what the organisational economic entity does. The same action of the organisational economic entity could therefore determine different environmental reactions to various moments and various actions. This is because organisational economic entities act under the conditions of the restrictions imposed by the environment. There are few cases where these restrictions are not observed and the environment reacts unambiguously. But, most of the time, the operating range is relatively tight, and inside of it only a very low part of it can be assigned to the actions taken by the organisation.

IOAN CONSTANTIN DIMA

2012-01-01

314

Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

1998-01-01

315

The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is the price to be paid today in order t o pr

2010-12-14

316

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

1996-03-11

317

The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

Ulusoy, Ali [School of Law, Ankara University (Turkey); Oguz, Fuat [Department of Economics, Baskent University, Eskisehir Yolu 20. km, 06530 Baglica, Ankara (Turkey)

2007-10-15

318

Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

1981-05-01

319

Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation) vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation) importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods ...

Graves, Philip E.

2011-01-01

320

Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We constructed a decision-analytic and cost-minimization model to compare monthly maternal serological screening for congenital toxoplasmosis, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical ...

Stillwaggon, Eileen; Carrier, Christopher S.; Sautter, Mari; Mcleod, Rima

2011-01-01

 
 
 
 
321

Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from y...

Steven Simoens

2010-01-01

322

Health-economic rates for medical services and clinical economic analysis as components of health reform in Kazakhstan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2002, Kazakhstan started with a new stage of development ofmedical-economic protocols for all levels of care in the country.This article accentuates on importance of developing clinicaleconomic analysis that helps to provide unified and optimizedrates on medical services throughout the country. Optimizedmedical rates, the authors argue, deliver high quality medicalservices at effective economic costs, as well as efficient publicbudgeting. Authors describe key points of the Unified NationalHealth System of the country. The paper provides review of thehistory of clinical-economic analysis, describes the main types ofclinical-economic analysis, prospects for the development ofclinical and economic analysis in Kazakhstan as well.

Adi Demessinov

2010-04-01

323

Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

Klein, Sharon J W

2013-12-17

324

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions. PMID:10106848

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

325

ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS A BASE OF COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF DYNAMICS AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

 In the article the main indicators of complex analysis of condition and dynamics of development the international economics are reflected, the rate of gross domestic product of developed countries are analyzed. The calculations of separate indicators are presented: index of concentration the revenues, index of development the human potential in different countries.

???????, ?. ?. ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ???? «??????????? ????????????? ???????????? ??????????? ?? ?. ???????? ».; ???????, ?. ?. ?????????? ???????????? ???????? ???? «??????????? ????????????? ???????????? ??????????? ?? ?. ???????? ».

2011-01-01

326

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so called naive scenario and a risk-averse scenario, are evaluated in this case study.

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

327

Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

1997-02-03

328

Perfection of a Complex Economic Analysis of Equity Capital ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The article scientifically substantiates and proves a necessity of perfection of a complex economic analysis of equity capital, which provides a system approach to analysis of financial stability of a company and increases effectiveness of formation and use of equity capital. It considers and generalises types and tasks of factor analysis of equity capital as one of the stages of complex analysis. It allocates main factors of influence on the effective indicator, and develops a multi-factor m...

Bodnarchuk Anna V.

2013-01-01

329

Groundwater Management for Agriculture and Nature : an Economic Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Key words: desiccation of nature, economics of water management, groundwater extraction, groundwater level management, ecohydrology, agriculture, policy instruments.As a result of declining groundwater levels, nature in the Netherlands is suffering from desiccation. Since measures taken to raise groundwater levels in order to restore nature often lead to unintended wet damage to crops in adjacent farmland, an economic analysis to determine optimal solutions is required. The fundamental factor...

Hellegers, P.

2001-01-01

330

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC  

Science.gov (United States)

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

331

Contributions to risk informed decision-making. Operational risk analysis in the oil and gas industry  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This thesis addresses the use of risk analyses to support decision-making, to find the balance between different concerns, such as for example safety of personnel and operational costs, i.e. economic values. The focus is on the offshore oil and gas industry, but many of the discussions and conclusions are general and could also be applied to other industries. The thesis applies an understanding of risk being the combination of the two basic dimensions (a) possible consequences (outcomes) and (b) associated uncertainties. This risk concept is general, and risk analyses can be used to provide decision-making support to all kinds of decision problems. However, our main focus is on risk analyses in the operational phase, so-called operational risk analyses, and in particular evaluation of safety barrier performance, for the protection of personnel, environment and assets. Hence, the main focus in this thesis is upon risks in terms of hazardous events. The challenges in the operational phase differ from the planning phase, and many risk analyses carried out today do not reflect installation-specific information obtained in the operational phase to the extent that is wanted. There is a need for more suitable risk analysis tools, and the thesis gives some contributions to development of such tools

Roeed, Willy

2006-08-15

332

Economic analysis of electric power storage technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The economic comparison was made among power storage technologies. The storage efficiency is presented by the power of 1 kWh released at the peak load divided by the energy to be stored at the off-peak load period. The comparison is more complicated for the compressed air energy storage (CAES), which requires input of fuels in addition to the compressed air for the power generation with gas turbine. To compare CAES with other storage technologies, the effective efficiency is used, which is the primary energy to produce 1 kWh at the generation plant divided by the primary energy required to produce 1 kWh by the storage technology. The construction investment for energy storage include those proportional to kW and those to kWh. The former is mainly related to the power generating equipment and the latter to the storage equipment. The pumped storage power system and CAES are civil engineering intensive with small kWh costs, and the construction cost is low even for a large capacity unit. The power generation costs of the pumped storage and CAES are favorable compared with conventional gas turbine power generation. CAES is promising as an alternative for the pumped storage power plant. (4 figs, 4 tabs)

Uchiyama, Yoji; Seino, Keiko

1988-05-01

333

Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base ?f ecological and economic assessment of investment quality  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator – the vulnerability index. Firstly, this index shows in what way the investors’ income changes while decreasing the profits in the sphere of agricultural land use by 1 per cent. Secondly, the above mentioned index defines the desire of investors to be present in agriculture under conditions of irrational use of the land resources. The author estimates investment quality by the criterion of «high – low» and interconnects it with substantiation of investment decisions in agricultural land use. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The author concludes that innovative approaches include the following issues: using of the category «investment quality» helps to raise substantiation of investment attractiveness assessment; the assessment of investment quality is undertaken from the side of each investment strategy which helps to describe motivation issues of investment process; the complex ecologically oriented strategy, offered by the author, is innovative by itself as it is based on the ecological and economic indicators of the investment quality, which has never calculated before. The implementation of such a complex ecologically oriented investment strategy is a subject for further researches.

I.S. Marekha

2013-12-01

334

To be or not to be - a long term economic decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer's primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada's geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry's willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author's contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs

1998-06-08

335

To be or not to be - a long term economic decision  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer`s primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada`s geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry`s willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author`s contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs.

Ito, T. [Z.I. Probes, Calgary, AB (Canada)

1998-09-01

336

The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today t...

2011-01-01

337

Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

2006-06-13

338

Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

IngoVernaleken

2014-03-01

339

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

1981-01-01

340

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SUGAR BEAT PRODUCTION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Croatian quota of 180.000 tones of sugar beet per year is approved for export to EU countries. For that amount of sugar it is necessary to produce about 30.000 ha of sugar beet. Sugar beet production requires deep and fertile soils, and crop rotation requirement is at least five year. Therefore, Slavonia and Baranya do t have enough areas under sugar beet. An additional problem is so called “sugar reform” applied by EUaiming to decrease price of sugar produced from sugar beet root and its equalization to sugar cane price. Consequences of this movement will be decreasing of sugar beet domestic redemption price. In that way, sugar beet production will be increased only within producers with relative good soils, suitable mechanization and knowledge. The research shows the results of production sugar beet on family farm of Vukovar – SrijemCounty on 21 ha. Technical and technological process includes 35 working operations spending 26.9 hours/ha of mechanization and 65.8 hours/ha of labor. Total costs amount to 15.947,05 kn/ha. Producers paid for seed 1.405,44 kn/ha or 9.4% and for 1.100 kg of fertilizers 2.217,50 kn/ha or 14.8% of total costs. Significant values are also costs for plant protection (9 l/ha being 15.2% of total cost. Mechanization fee is 5.070,96 kn/ha with share of 33.9% what indicates that this is the most important element in total costs, partly as a consequence of increased distance between arable land and farm. Total value of production is 20.759,59 kn/ha, with yields of the root (70.30 t/ha and government subsidies. Amount of 1.068,82 kg root is producedper hour of human labour; while 0.94 hour of human labour is necessary per tone of products. Economic coefficient is 1.36. Profit of 36.67 kn is achieved on 100 invested kunas in production process.

Jozo Kanisek

2008-06-01

 
 
 
 
341

Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

2013-12-01

342

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

2011-04-01

343

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management  

Science.gov (United States)

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches.

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

2013-01-01

344

Economic analysis of radiodiagnostic equipment use  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The method for calculating costs for performing radiodiagnostic investigation is suggested, analysis of structure of these costs and their dependence on output and working in shifts is given. As example the calculation of costs for performing radiodiagnostic investigations on gamma cameras with a computer and without it and on a scanner using fabricated radiopharmaceuticals and short-lived radionuclides. The developed technique for costs calculation for radiodignostic investigation permits to determine the cost of performing any investigation in changing values of any cost components. The analysis of the cost stucture for the investigation and dependence on apparatus capacity permit to contemplate the methods of reducing costs and raising apparatus use efficiency. One of these methods is transition to double-shift work of scintigraphic rooms equipped in the first place by gamma-cameras with computers.

Kochetova, G.P.; Turaev, R.N.

1984-10-01

345

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

Abba M. Wakili

2013-01-01

346

Socio-economic Condition of Child Worker of Bangladesh in Their Adulthood: An Econometric Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study has mainly focused on the current socio-economic condition of those people who were child labor in their childhood. In this study, economic indicators are income and employment status. On the other hand, level of education, health status and role in case of decision making in the society are studied as social indicators. According to this study, socio-economic condition of child workers in their adulthood is not very satisfactory. In this research work, we have used Linear Probability Model (LPM and Weighted Least Square (WLS regression analysis to make comparison of current socio-economic status between people who were child labor in their childhood and those who were not child worker in past. We have found that person who was not child worker in early stage of his/her life have higher probability to enjoy better socio-economic condition than that of person who worked as child worker in past. In fact, we have identified that a children who is working as a child worker has 0.61 or 61% probability to have low standard of living in his/her future life.

Syed Imran Ali Meerza

2011-01-01

347

Foreign policy decision making: an analysis of three United States policy decisions towards Saudi Arabia  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This dissertation attempts to assess the validity of decision-making theory as an approach to understanding and explaining international relations. The study examines the works of eight major decision-making theorists. Although their theories approach decision-making from several perspectives, they lack consensus about how decisions are made. Some theorists focus on bureaucratic imperatives, others on individual psychological motivations, while still others emphasize the political bargains that are struck among political elites. The undue focus on crises has of necessity directed the theorist to examine decisions during relatively short time spans, and to overestimate the role political elites play in non-crisis situations. The Saudi case represents a more routine situation that occurred over a longer period of time. Moreover, it identifies areas the theorists underemphasize, yet were critical in this case: (1) there was an active role of interest groups, particularly oil companies, in the formation of US policy; (2) decisions were often made by middle and low-level bureaucrats and not the political elite; and (3) implementation of a decision was affected by the actions of the US Congress, Britain, and Saudi Arabia.

Alexander, P.K.

1985-01-01

348

Economics and Olympics: An Efficiency Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Applying stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the importance of sports in society as technical efficiency of countries in the production ofnOlympic success since the 1950s. Our measures of success are medal shares and a broader concept including Olympic diplomas. Following Bernard andnBusse (2004), population and GDP are used as inputs. While the impact of GDP is always positive, we show that the sign of the population effect depends on wealth and population size of a country.nThe result...

Rathke, Alexander; Woitek, Ulrich

2007-01-01

349

Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy  

Science.gov (United States)

Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3 g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2 g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2 g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual’s bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (http://www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual’s needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile.

Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K.; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K.; Barbour, Sean J.; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A.; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J.; Mahoney, Shannon L.; Jennette, J. Charles; Hogan, Susan L.; Falk, Ronald J.; Cattran, Daniel C.; Reich, Heather N.; Nachman, Patrick H.

2014-01-01

350

Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy.  

Science.gov (United States)

Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3?g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2?g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2?g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual's bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual's needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile. PMID:24336031

Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K; Barbour, Sean J; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J; Mahoney, Shannon L; Charles Jennette, J; Hogan, Susan L; Falk, Ronald J; Cattran, Daniel C; Reich, Heather N; Nachman, Patrick H

2014-06-01

351

Engineering-economic analysis of modular reactor concepts  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents an analysis of economic potential of modular reactor concepts under which small reactor modules are produced in workshops with a high quality standard. The results are grouped into the following three points: (1) Many advantages associated with modular reactor concepts are identified and reviewed; (2) Using scale exponent and learning curve slope, conditions are derived for a small modular reactor plant to have economic advantage over a large plant; and (3) Interest during construction is evaluated to measure potential savings which can be brought about by employing modular reactor concepts. Further development of the analysis remains to be done for applying to a specific modular reactor design. (author)

1985-01-01

352

Decision Analysis via Granulation Based on General Binary Relation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Decision theory considers how best to make decisions in the light of uncertainty about data. There are several methodologies that may be used to determine the best decision. In rough set theory, the classification of objects according to approximation operators can be fitted into the Bayesian decision-theoretic model, with respect to three regions (positive, negative, and boundary region. Granulation using equivalence classes is a restriction that limits the decision makers. In this paper, we introduce a generalization and modification of decision-theoretic rough set model by using granular computing on general binary relations. We obtain two new types of approximation that enable us to classify the objects into five regions instead of three regions. The classification of decision region into five areas will enlarge the range of choice for decision makers.

N. M. Kilany

2007-01-01

353

Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and Sensitivity measures for soil aggregation, for developing dependence methodology, for constructing early alert logic, for tracking trends, for relating the Markov model to other (e.g., Reason) models, for developing and demonstrating rudimentary laptop software, and for developing an input/output display methodology.

COOPER,J. ARLIN

1999-09-01

354

Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods will generally increase labor supply, while relatively more technological advance for existing goods will reduce labor supply to the market. These impacts are seen to provide insights into Rostow’s stages of growth. Short run variations in the relative importance of the two types of technological change are seen to imply unpredictable business cycle behavior of the type we observe. The welfare implications of national income accounting that fails to consider changes in leisure are discussed.

Philip E. Graves

2011-07-01

355

The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

Ferdous Alam

2011-01-01

356

Decision Analysis Applied to a Utility's Decisions Resulting from Intergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking (IGSCC). Final Report.  

Science.gov (United States)

This report documents conclusions and recommendations made to a particular utility about decisions that result because of the possibility of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) in pipe welds. The total expected cost and the uncertainty associa...

D. L. Owen J. D. Roughgarden S. Holtzman

1982-01-01

357

Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

This issue focuses on the theme of economics, and presents educational resources for teaching basics to children. Web sites, CD-ROMs and software, videos, books, and additional resources, as well as activities which focus on economics are described. Includes short features on related topics, and the subtopics of trade, money and banking, and…

Online-Offline, 1998

1998-01-01

358

Probability assessment and decision analysis of alternative nuclear fuel cycles  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports upon a decision analysis experiment conducted among sixteen individuals who were well informed on the topic of nuclear weapons proliferation and on the civilian use of plutonium fuel cycles. The results are troublesome to those who believe in the possibility of objective scientific judgments in an area as polarized as this one has become. Depending upon whether one supports or opposes plutonium fuel cycles, one also tends to adopt arguments on uranium availability, energy demand growth, and so on that support one or the other position. This finding could help explain why it has proved so difficult to reach a factual consensus within expert working groups, each specializing in a particular aspect of the overall problem. Consciously or subconsciously, it appears that the expert committees are simultaneously debating the larger issue that confronts society

1978-09-30

359

Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making. PMID:24810247

Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

2014-05-20

360

Transmission Bearing Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

A diagnostic tool was developed for detecting fatigue damage to rolling element bearings in an OH-58 main rotor transmission. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting bearing surface fatigue pitting damage. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from tests performed in the NASA Glenn 500 hp Helicopter Transmission Test Stand. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when two unanticipated bearing failures occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears duplex ball bearings and spiral bevel pinion triplex ball bearings in a main rotor transmission.

Dempsey, Paula J.; Lewicki, David G.; Decker, Harry J.

2004-01-01

 
 
 
 
361

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found.

Hazelrigg, Jr, G A

1980-12-31

362

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

1980-01-01

363

Economic analysis of solid waste-to-energy plants for small communities  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The determination was made of the relative economic feasibility of various solid waste-to-energy plants for a five county region of Southeastern Arkansas. The technology chosen was the two-chamber, starved-air incinerator with heat recovery otherwise known as a modular combustion unit so named because these units are designed as separate modules, allowing the option for low cost expansion of capacity if future needs warrant it. The low density of rural areas combined with the greater availability of potential landfill sites, longer transportation distances, and the availability and size of steam customers require careful consideration of all possible options in economic feasibility analysis for these small scale facilities. By utilizing life-cycle costing, including decisions concerning relative rates of escalation of different cost and revenue streams, the optional size and site for a refuse-derived energy plants was selected as part of a solid waste management system for this rural area of 80,000 population.

Isser, S.; Hinkle, B.; Hough, T.C.

1980-12-01

364

Nuclear proliferation in the Third World: an analysis of decision making in Indiana and Pakistan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The causes of nuclear proliferation in the Third World are analyzed by examining the motives and forces that went into the nuclear decisions of India and Pakistan. A comprehensive framework is used that consists of five levels of analysis: international, societal, governmental, bureaucratic, and individual factors. The study examines how various potential motives that might impel a nation to acquire nuclear weapons operated through the different levels of analysis. It is concluded that the security motive was the primary determinant in each case as opposed to other motives such as desire for international status or economic considerations. However, security motives were joined by other values and constraints. Regional conflict combined with the lack of a superpower guarantee of security to persuade both countries to pursue nuclear weapons. Such domestic factors as the type of political systems, public opinion, and mass media seemed to play a very limited role in the decisions, although a larger role in India than in Pakistan. Finally, strong individual leadership was a relatively powerful determinant of policy in both countries

1985-01-01

365

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

2000-07-01

366

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

1999-01-01

367

Analysis of the Nature of Economic Growth of Slovenian Economy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to outline the economic growth for the Slovenian economy between 1992--2001. Our major interest is the nature of the past growth. Was it intensive or extensive? On the basis of four groups of different arguments we were expecting that there would be a predominantly extensive economic growth. In order to answer this question we developed an empirical study, which follows the conventional neo-classical growth accounting framework. First we estimated three mathematical specifications of aggregate production functions. The analysis was than conducted through an econometric analysis of these estimates. Using these results we developed the growth accounting equation, which allowed us to compute the contributions of each particular input (physical capital, human capital and technical progress to output growth. On base of our received empirical results we are able to state, that the past economic growth of the Slovenian economy was significantly extensive.

Matjaz Novak

2003-09-01

368

Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

2004-01-01

369

Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained.

Yacout, A.M.; Orechwa, Y.

1996-03-01

370

Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained

1996-01-01

371

Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.  

Science.gov (United States)

Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation. PMID:19807328

Rosati, Nicoletta

2002-04-01

372

Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

Manvinder Singh Pahwa

2013-06-01

373

Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The integrated use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario Planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an indepth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggest...

Montibeller, Gilberto; Gummer, Haidee; Tumidei, Daniele

2007-01-01

374

Environmental systems analysis tools for decision-making : LCA and Swedish waste management as an example  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decisions are made based on information of different kinds. Several tools have been developed to facilitate the inclusion of environmental aspects in decision-making on different levels. Which tool to use in a specific decision-making situation depends on the decision context. This thesis discusses the choice between different environmental systems analysis (ESA) tools and suggests that key factors influencing the choice of ESA tool are object of study, impacts considered and information type...

Moberg, A?sa

2006-01-01

375

Data Analysis and Decision Trees for Analysis and B2C Controls  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study uses a two-step procedure for the evaluation of B2C controls, first, using a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA model, second, decision trees. The results of the DEA model indicate that retail firms and information service providers implement B2C controls more effectively than financial firms do. Controls for system continuity are implemented more effectively than entry controls. In financial firms, controls for system continuity, communication controls and entry controls, in a dropping order, are effectively followed in B2C approaches. Every company can determine its relative level of reduction in each part of controls in order to make the control system effective. The firms that effectively implement B2C controls are determined using a decision tree model. The decision tree model issued to suggest the level of controls and argued rules for controls guidance. This state the possibility of using decision trees for controls evaluation in B2C approaches.

Mohammad Nazaripour

2012-09-01

376

Valuing groundwater: a practical approach for integrating groundwater economic values into decision making - A case study in Namibia, Southern Africa  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO South Africa | Language: English Abstract in english Groundwater provides a range of services to people in Southern Africa; however, the benefits provided by these services are often not fully appreciated and factored into decisions about groundwater management and use. After outlining briefly the importance of groundwater in the region and the pressu [...] res facing groundwater, this paper discusses how economic valuation can help improve its management. The main focus of the paper is the presentation of the practical 5-step economic valuation methodology that has been developed as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Groundwater and Drought Management Project. This methodology can be generally applied to groundwater management issues across the SADC region. The methodology is based upon an ecosystem services approach which considers all the potential services that groundwater provides, which can result in improvements in human welfare. These services include provisioning services such as water for domestic use, agriculture and industry; regulating services such as the recharge of surface waters and carbon storage benefits; and cultural services such as the tourism associated with wildlife at groundwater-fed watering holes. The methodology incorporates a 2-tiered valuation approach. The Tier 1 valuation is based on market pricing and value-transfer approaches and can provide an initial view of the economic value of a resource in a particular use. A value-transfer tool has been developed, which allows the user to select from a menu of the currently available transfer values for use in an assessment. A Tier 2 valuation requires more detailed primary studies and may be required following a Tier 1 assessment where more certainty in decision-making is required. The methodology has been tested at 4 pilot sites in the region. An example of the application of the SADC groundwater-valuation methodology in Namibia is presented in this paper. The paper concludes with recommendations for the development of groundwater valuation in the region. Emphasis is placed on training, the commissioning of more groundwater-valuation studies and the need for more scientific research to facilitate the valuation of groundwater-regulating services.

C, Bann; SC, Wood.

377

Economic Analysis. Volume II. Course Segments 19-34.  

Science.gov (United States)

The second volume of the United States Naval Academy's individualized instruction course in economic analysis covers segments 19-34 of the course. Topics in this volume include the national income accounts, the theory of income determination, and the role of fiscal policy in income determination. Other segments of the course, the behavioral…

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

378

PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A LIME SPRAY DRYER FGD SYSTEM  

Science.gov (United States)

The report gives results of a preliminary economic analysis of two flue gas desulfurization (FGD) processes (one dry and one wet) for a new 500-MW power plant burning Western coal having 0.7% sulfur, 9.7% ash, and a heating value of 9700 Btu/lb and meeting current new source perf...

379

Combining behavioral endocrinology and experimental economics: testosterone and social decision making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Behavioral endocrinological research in humans as well as in animals suggests that testosterone plays a key role in social interactions. Studies in rodents have shown a direct link between testosterone and aggressive behavior(1) and folk wisdom adapts these findings to humans, suggesting that testosterone induces antisocial, egoistic or even aggressive behavior(2). However, many researchers doubt a direct testosterone-aggression link in humans, arguing instead that testosterone is primarily involved in status-related behavior(3,4). As a high status can also be achieved by aggressive and antisocial means it can be difficult to distinguish between anti-social and status seeking behavior. We therefore set up an experimental environment, in which status can only be achieved by prosocial means. In a double-blind and placebo-controlled experiment, we administered a single sublingual dose of 0.5 mg of testosterone (with a hydroxypropyl-?-cyclodextrin carrier) to 121 women and investigated their social interaction behavior in an economic bargaining paradigm. Real monetary incentives are at stake in this paradigm; every player A receives a certain amount of money and has to make an offer to another player B on how to share the money. If B accepts, she gets what was offered and player A keeps the rest. If B refuses the offer, nobody gets anything. A status seeking player A is expected to avoid being rejected by behaving in a prosocial way, i.e. by making higher offers. The results show that if expectations about the hormone are controlled for, testosterone administration leads to a significant increase in fair bargaining offers compared to placebo. The role of expectations is reflected in the fact that subjects who report that they believe to have received testosterone make lower offers than those who say they believe that they were treated with a placebo. These findings suggest that the experimental economics approach is sensitive for detecting neurobiological effects as subtle as those achieved by administration of hormones. Moreover, the findings point towards the importance of both psychosocial as well as neuroendocrine factors in determining the influence of testosterone on human social behavior. PMID:21403636

Eisenegger, Christoph; Naef, Michael

2011-01-01

380

Research of Public Policy Decision-Making Based on System Analysis Method  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available System analysis method is an important part of Marxist methodology, and the effective technical support tools of public policy decisions. The article illustrates the meaning and basic principle of system analysis, and based on it, this paper discusses the method of system analysis on public policy decision-making.

Mei LI

2014-04-01

 
 
 
 
381

EPA Growing DASEES (Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society) - To Aid In Making Decisions On Complex Environmental Issues  

Science.gov (United States)

Having a framework and tools to help sort through complicated environmental issues in an objective way would be useful to communities and risk managers, and all the stakeholders affected by these issues. This is one need that DASEES (Decision Analysis for a Sustainable En...

382

Economic cost analysis in cancer management and its relevance today  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The global cancer burden has shown a distinct shift in the last two decades and its financial impact can be large, even among patients living in high resource countries, with comprehensive health insurance policies. It is hard to imagine its impact on patients of developing countries where insurance policies exist infrequently and often cost becomes the greatest barrier in availing cancer treatment. It is recognized that these costs include the direct cost of disease treatment and care, indirect costs accrued by the patient and the family, and economic losses to the society as a whole. Economic cost analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis has emerged as a basic tool in the evaluation of health-care practices. To date, these cost data have been collected only sporadically, even in the most developed countries, and there is a great need for incorporating economic cost assessment practices in developing countries, so that patients and their families can access the care adequately. The current review has been done using pubmed and medline search with keywords like cancer, cost-analysis, cost-effectiveness, economic burden, medical cost, etc.

Sharma K

2009-01-01

383

E3--ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ECONOMICS (SYSTEMS ANALYSIS BRANCH, SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY DIVISION, NRMRL)  

Science.gov (United States)

The E3--Environmental Engineering Economics Program was established to provide environmental scientists and decision makers with a focal point for information on NRMRL activities related to the cost and cost-effectiveness of environmental technologies and risk management methods....

384

The flow networks approach to decision analysis in construction industry  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The application of flow networks on the example of the types of works distribution as well as the distribution of construction workers qualification structure according to particular types of buildings is presented in the paper. The flow networks considered were proposed by Zdzislaw Pawlak and are the tools for the new mathematical models related to the information regarding flow explorations in decision algorithms. The decision algorithms consist of series of decision rules for each particul...

?irovi? Goran; Plamenac Darko

2007-01-01

385

FUZZY BASED DECISION ANALYSIS IN LAND USE PLANNING  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Appropriate land use decisions are vital to achieve optimum productivity of the land and to ensure sustainable land use and environment. From a land use planning perspective, identification of suitable locations for a given type of land use is necessary for decision makers to formulate land use alternatives in different locations, based on existing land potential and constraints. To achieve this, it requires an effective management of spatial information on the land on which such decisions sh...

2013-01-01

386

Quantitative Analysis of Group Decision Making for Complex Engineered Systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Understanding group decision-making processes is crucial for design or operation of a complex system. Unfortunately, there are few experimental tools that might contribute to the development of a theory of group decision-making by committees of technical experts. This research aims to fills this gap by providing tools based on computational linguistics algorithms that can analyze transcripts of multi-stakeholder decision-making entities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device ap...

Broniatowski, David Andre; Coughlin, Joseph F.; Magee, Christopher L.; Yang, Maria

2009-01-01

387

Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to ...

Harp, Dylan R.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

2011-01-01

388

Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

2003-01-01

389

Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

2003-06-01

390

Tactical techno-economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood waste fuels in a heating plant  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, we investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made using three different energy efficiency and forest technology rates. Then the decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels (below-ground on a tactical decision-making horizon. With this aim, fuel data of three forest fuel procurement teams were collected for 3 months. The strategic fuel procurement decisions were adjusted to the changed decision environment based on a tactical techno-economic analysis using forest technology rates. The optimal energy product and fuel mixtures were solved by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

Palander Teijo

2012-01-01

391

Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

Udude Celina C

2012-06-01

392

Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are analyzed the relations between different quantitative aspects of the buying decision and the impulsive buying reactions of the consumer.

Corina PEL?U

2012-12-01

393

Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis.

Georgeson, S.; Meyer, K.B.; Pauker, S.G. (Tufts Univ. School of Medicine, Boston, MA (USA))

1990-03-15

394

The Decision to Start a New Firm: An Econometric Analysis of Regional Entrepreneurship in Tunisia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Understanding the factors that promote or mitigate transitions into self-employment is crucial to regional economic development efforts, while the number of new business created play a significant role to regional economic vitality and represent a major signal of a dynamic economy. We use a new measure of firm formation based on the combination between individual background with effects depending on the regional context in Tunisia such as entrepreneurial human capital and labour force characteristics. Even though some of these factors have been the subject of several entrepreneurship studies, it is still difficult to identify which one impact significantly the decision to create a new firm.As an illustration, the model is estimated using a data provided by the National Tunisian Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM 2010 Project, based on the analysis of a sample of 1966 cases. The main findings of the study show that “competencies” measured by the two variables “knowing someone personally who started a business in the past 2 years” and “presence of good opportunities for starting a business” increase significantly the probability to create a new venture. In addition, we have found that the interaction between these two factors has a positive influence. However, “fear of failure” influences negatively the decision to start up. Finally, some fixed region-specific factors notably the average real wage of a region must be accounted for when estimating regional self-employment relationships. We discuss the implications of our results for policy-makers with useful information in designing and implementing policies to promote enterprise development.

Islem Khefacha

2012-11-01

395

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

1975-01-01

396

Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society  

Science.gov (United States)

Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

397

Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically high purity (limited dissolved solids) is used inside boilers, reactors or electrolyzers because as it changes phase or is consumed, it leaves very little residue behind. Pre-treatment of 'raw' source water to remove impurities not only enables efficient hydrogen production, but also reduces maintenance costs associated with component degradation due to those impurities. Cooling water has lower overall quality specifications, though it is required in larger volumes. Cooling water has distinct quality requirements aimed at preserving the cooling equipment by reducing scaling and fouling from untreated water. At least as important as the quantity, quality and cost of water inputs to a process are the quantity, quality and cost of water discharge. In many parts of the world, contamination from wastewater streams is a far greater threat to water supply than scarcity or drought (Brooks, 2002). Wastewater can be produced during the pre-treatment processes for process and cooling water, and is also sometimes generated during the hydrogen production and cooling operations themselves. Wastewater is, by definition, lower quality than supply water. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities can handle some industrial wastewaters; others must be treated on-site or recycled. Any of these options can incur additional cost and/or complexity. DOE's 'H2A' studies have developed cost and energy intensity estimates for a variety of hydrogen production pathways. These assessments, however, have not focused on the details of water use, treatment and disposal. As a result, relatively coarse consumption numbers have been used to estimate water intensities. The water intensity for hydrogen production ranges between 1.5-40 gallons per kilogram of hydrogen, including the embedded water due to electricity consumption and considering the wide variety of hydrogen production, water treatment, and cooling options. Understanding the consequences of water management choices enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding water use. Water is a fundamentally reg

Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

2010-01-06

398

INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

2009-10-01

399

The (economic) effects of lay participation in courts: a cross-country analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Legal philosophers like Montesquieu, Hegel and Tocqueville have argued that lay participation in judicial decision-making would have benefits reaching far beyond the realm of the legal system narrowly understood. From an economic point of view, lay participation in judicial decision-making can be interpreted as a renunciation of an additional division of labor, which is expected to cause foregone benefits in terms of the costs as well as the quality of judicial decision-making. In order to be...

Voigt, Stefan

2008-01-01

400

Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are anal...

2012-01-01

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