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Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  2. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): ‱ What are the benefits and l...

  3. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and l...

  4. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  5. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  6. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.

  7. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control who among Bank users may access them. Documents can be shared within organizations or across organizations at the owner's discretion. The Scenario Bank is intended to be the system of record for USDA and DHS sponsored FAD study efforts and as such will archive content from a variety of models employed by USDA and DHS-sponsored researchers and analysts.

  8. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  9. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 10 (Economic Prices for Tradable Goods and Services)

    Glenn Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo; Arnold C Harberger

    2011-01-01

    In the integrated financial and economic analysis, there is a need to choose a numeraire in which all costs and benefits are expressed. The most common practice has been to express all costs and benefits in terms of domestic currency at a domestic price level. This is the natural rule to follow for the construction of the financial cash flow statement of a project that includes all the financial receipts and all the expenditures in each period throughout the duration of the project. When this...

  10. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  11. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

    Tainio Marko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    Electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 87%. EGAT predicts that total demand will increase from about 16,126 MWe now to about 22,282 MWe in year 2006. Thailand has a diversified energy resource base, consisting of natural gas, oil, lignite, and hydropower. This paper will present the methodology to select power plant, from coal-fired, oil-fired, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the power generation cost of power plant with consideration of the net present worth (NPW) and interest rate return (IRR), it shows that nuclear power plant will offer the lowest IRR, and the highest IRR is combined cycle power plant. While the NPW for the best worthwhile projects and suitable investment is imported coal-fired power plant and the runner-up is nuclear power plant at 4-6 years construction period. (author)

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power plant with consideration of the net present value (NPV) and interest rate return (IRR), it shows that nuclear power plant will offer the lowest IRR, and the highest IRR is combined cycle power plant and the runner - up is imported coal-fired and imported oil-fired power plant. Finally, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that there are many advantages of nuclear energy such as economic advantages as a result of price stability, ecological advantages with respect to the greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide production, political advantages in terms of energy independence, and industrial advantages in terms of benefits to the domestic economy. It can only be developed in a favourable context in the coming years if it is accepted by the citizens

  14. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  15. Economic analysis

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  16. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; SĂžrensen, Jan Tind

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised...... informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the Animal Health Economics workshops which was held on the 9th and 10th of November, 2006 at the Research Centre...... Foulum in Denmark. Different disciplines and approaches within Animal Health Economics are dealt with by the different scientists and the report contains a variety of novel results and projects. The resulting discussion is summarized in the report....

  17. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-01-01

    The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS) for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  18. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  19. An Institutional Economic Analysis of the Decision to Do-it-yourself in Housing Renovation

    Ti-Ching Peng

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines home renovatorsñ€ℱ decision in choosing do-it-yourself (DIY) or hiring contractors. DIY may reduce financial pressure but may lead to potential domestic discord and perils of incompetence; hiring contractors may alleviate time pressures but may require more financial resource. This choice is modelled as analogous to Williamsonñ€ℱs corporate strategic decision between ñ€˜outsourcingñ€ℱ and ñ€˜internalisationñ€ℱ in the context of vertical integration, and extended via Richar...

  20. Conceptual theoretical tools for analysis of decision making in public economics committees

    Salinas Esteban, Francisca; Jalil Barney, Munir Andrés

    2014-01-01

    Este artĂ­culo es un trabajo de carĂĄcter teĂłrico la toma de decisiones en comitĂ©s de economĂ­a pĂșblica. Se expondrĂĄ en primer lugar algunos conceptos bĂĄsicos sobre la toma de decisiones, tales como: 1- las condiciones, 2- los factores individuales, 3- grupales y 4- las clasificaciones de las decisiones, especialmente relacionadas al campo de las polĂ­ticas pĂșblicas. Posteriormente, se presentarĂĄn algunos de los modelos sobre toma de decisiones relacionados con vertientes de la teorĂ­a econĂłmica y...

  1. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

  2. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  3. Economic analysis

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  4. Economics: Scarcity and Citizen Decision-Making.

    Gilliard, June V.; Morton, John S.

    1981-01-01

    Maintaining that economics can contribute significantly to the achievement of citizenship education goals within the social studies program, this article offers information on concepts for analyzing economic policies, dealing with policy issues in the classroom, and understanding the relationship of scarcity to decision making. (DB)

  5. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  6. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY, the probability for cost-effectiveness of a collaborative practice would exceed 50%. At 20,000,000 KRW per QALY, which is recommended using per capita gross domestic product (GDP as the threshold, the probability would be 72.3%. Conclusions On the basis of our findings, acupuncture collaborative therapy for patients with chronic LBP may be cost-effective if the usual threshold is applied. Further empirical studies are required to overcome the limitations of uncertainties and improve the precision of the results.

  7. Alara and decision analysis

    In applying ALARA somebody has to determine what is reasonable. A decision has to be made. Decision Analysis is a procedure for structuring decision problems, and therefore it might be expected to be of use in the application of the ALARA principle. This paper explores the contribution that Decision Analysis may make in this context, particularly discussing the application of multi-attribute value theory. An example of using the theory on a problem of radioactive waste disposal is given, and the potential of an increased use of Decision Analysis in making the ALARA principle work, is discussed

  8. Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

  9. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Guy Hutton

    2008-01-01

    Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and pri...

  10. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Hutton, G.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and priv...

  11. Template-Directed Instrumentation Reduces Cost and Improves Efficiency for Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Economic Decision Analysis and Pilot Study.

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Carroll, Kaitlin M; Blevins, Jason L; DeNegre, Scott T; Mayman, David J; Jerabek, Seth A

    2015-10-01

    Template-directed instrumentation (TDI) for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may streamline operating room (OR) workflow and reduce costs by preselecting implants and minimizing instrument tray burden. A decision model simulated the economics of TDI. Sensitivity analyses determined thresholds for model variables to ensure TDI success. A clinical pilot was reviewed. The accuracy of preoperative templates was validated, and 20 consecutive primary TKAs were performed using TDI. The model determined that preoperative component size estimation should be accurate to ±1 implant size for 50% of TKAs to implement TDI. The pilot showed that preoperative template accuracy exceeded 97%. There were statistically significant improvements in OR turnover time and in-room time for TDI compared to an historical cohort of TKAs. TDI reduces costs and improves OR efficiency. PMID:26021908

  12. Economic Evaluation Enhances Public Health Decision Making

    Rabarison, Kristina M.; Bish, Connie L.; Massoudi, Mehran S.; Giles, Wayne H.

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking “how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical ...

  13. Evidence Accumulation in Economic Decision Making

    Sebastian Gluth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Evidence accumulation models, such as the Drift-Diffusion-Model (DDM or the Urgency-Gating-Model (UGM, have been successfully used to understand psychological mechanisms and neural correlates of human perceptual decision making. Its application to the domain of economic decision making, however, has attracted little attention so far. We investigated how people accumulate evidence over time using a multiple-cue interference task, in which successively disclosed cues (stock ratings predict the value of offers (stocks. Participants were asked to either buy or reject the offered stocks based on the provided information and were rewarded or punished for buying valuable or poor stocks, respectively. They also faced a speed-accuracy tradeoff as disclosure of each cue was coupled with costs. In accordance with predictions from DDM and UGM, we found that the amount of collected information required to reach a decision is a function of accumulated evidence. That is, people responded earlier if evidence for one option (buy/reject was more obvious. The tendency to react prematurely – reflecting risk readiness – correlated with self-reported novelty seeking (r = .65. Interestingly, model parameters suggested a distortion of probability weighing in our task consistent with predictions from prospect theory. These distortion parameters correlated with distortion parameters (r = .60 derived from a second task, in which participants had to explicitly estimate the probability of winning given that a certain number of cues was disclosed. Our results demonstrate the applicability of evidence accumulation models for investigating mechanisms that guide human economic decision making.

  14. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  15. Ethics in economic decision-making

    Leliveld, Marijke Christina

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation sheds more light on ethics in economic decision-making. Over the course of nine experiments, I studied (a) when people adhere to ethical standards like the do-no-harm principle, and (b) how people respond to situations in which ethical standards are violated by studying not only punishing behavior but also compensation behavior. I show that when people know that by furthering their self-interest they harm another person (either by taking from or by allocating a loss to the o...

  16. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  17. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Guy Hutton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

  18. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  19. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    Maturo, Antonio; HoĆĄkovĂĄ-MayerovĂĄ, Ć ĂĄrka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  20. An Environmental and Economic Trade-off Analysis of Manufacturing Process Chains to Inform Decision Making for Sustainability

    Robinson, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Increasing costs, consumer awareness, and environmental legislation have driven industry to reduce its resource consumption and the impact from that consumption. So, both traditional economic objectives (e.g., cost, time, and quality) and environmental objectives (e.g., CO2 emissions) have become strategically relevant for the manufacturing sector. For many manufacturing companies, production systems have a major influence on the environmental footprint of a product and therefore represent a...

  1. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  2. PARAMETERIZING GPFARM: AN AGRICULTURAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR INTEGRATING SCIENCE, ECONOMICS, RESOURCE USE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    Few farmers and ranchers adopt agricultural software such as decision support systems (DSS). While numerous decision aids are available, most are too difficult for producers to use, exclude components (e.g., economic budgeting, weeds, multicriteria decision analysis) necessary for meaningful use on...

  3. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  4. Quantum Model of Decision-Making in Economics

    Bodo Herzog

    2015-01-01

    The paper designs a quantum model of decision-making (QMDM) that utilizes neuroscientific evidence. The new model provides both normative and positive implications to economics. First, it enhances the study of decision-making which is an extension of the expected utility theory (EUT) in mathematical economics. Second, we demonstrate how the quantum model mitigates drawbacks of the expected utility theory of today.

  5. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  6. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference for couples. Before the birth, the future may be vague. After the birth, life without a child becomes unimaginable. PMID:12291178

  7. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  8. Decision Analysis Technique

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  9. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  10. Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?

    Farb NA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

  11. Economic Analysis of Law

    Louis Kaplow; Steven Shavell

    1999-01-01

    This is a survey of the field of economic analysis of law, focusing on the work of economists. The survey covers the three central areas of civil law liability for accidents (tort law), property law, and contracts as well as the litigation process and public enforcement of law.

  12. Telecommunications Consumers: A Behavioural Economic Analysis

    LUNN, PETE

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that telecommunications markets present the consumer with a decision-making environment that is particularly likely to be prone to established biases in consumer decision-making. The analysis identifies four properties of telecommunications markets, which in combination are probably unique and which may make the sector prey to biases identified by behavioural economics. The analysis offers a range of known behavioural phenomena that, first, may help to explain the generally ...

  13. Emotions and Emotion Regulation in Economic Decision Making

    Astor, Philipp J.

    2013-01-01

    By employing the methodology of experimental economics, the thesis examines the influence of emotions on decision making in electronic auction markets. Subjects' emotional processes are measured by psychophysiological indicators, helping to decipher the coherence of information, emotion (regulation) and decision making. Four chapters build the main body of the thesis and all are constructed similarly: introduction, design, method, results, limitations, theoretical and managerial implications.

  14. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the


  15. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

  16. Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision

    As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

  17. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation. PMID:1894809

  18. Extending handivote to handle digital economic decisions

    Cockshott, P.; Renaud, K

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing realisation that the populace need to be consulted on a more regular basis about issues that concern them. We address a particular economic problem, that of national budgeting, and show how digital technology can be applied in an understandable way in this domain. The current situation is that governments are reluctant to conduct plebiscites due to the expenses inherent in the traditional voting model. Handivote is a system which allows maximal participation, using a ubiqui...

  19. Economic decision making and prefrontal cortex

    Daeyeol Lee

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available During decision making, the outcomes expected from alternative actions are often evaluated along multiple dimensions, such as the magnitude and delay of reward. We found that during inter-temporal choice in which the animals choose between a small immediate reward and a larger but more delayed reward, the neurons in the lateral prefrontal cortex and basal ganglia often encode the subjective value of a particular reward discounted by its delay. The lateral prefrontal cortex also plays an important role in updating the animal’s preference for alternative actions based on its previous experience. Using a computer-simulated rock-paper-scissors task, we found that the activity of individual prefrontal cortex tends to reflect not only the actual outcomes of the animal’s chosen actions, but also the hypothetical outcomes that could have been obtained from one of unchosen actions. These results suggest that the prefrontal cortex provides the learning signals necessary to maximize the efficiency of reinforcement learning in addition to the value signals during decision making.

  20. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  1. Techno-economic analysis

    The costs of the production and upgrading of biomass pyrolysis oils and the production costs of electricity in plants using them as fuels are analysed. The performance and cost estimates show that while the crude liquids can be economic at low feedstock costs, refined hydrocarbons are not competitive without credits for low sulphur and environmental and socio-economic contributions. As feedstock cost is the major cost item, any process that can utilise waste materials having low inherent cost will have the best chance to show economic viability in the short term. Analysis of the costs of generating electricity from the combustion of organic raw materials derived from biomass and wastes shows that a substantial reduction can be achieved by increasing the yield of plants grown for energy use. If this is combined with technological developments which can achieve conversion efficiencies comparable with those of large combined-cycle systems based on fossil-fuels, then biomass derived electricity can be competitive. Such competitivity can be enhanced in the short term where set-aside payments can be used to reduce net biomass production cost. (7 figures, 4 tables). (UK)

  2. Decision analysis: theory and application to medicine.

    Cantor, S B

    1995-06-01

    The formal methodology of clinical decision analysis has its origins in probability theory, statistical inference, game theory, and economics. Its application to the arena of problems in medicine and public policy should have a vast impact on the way medicine is practiced in the twenty-first century and beyond. The clinical decision analyses published in journals are based on particular assumptions; if these assumptions do not hold true, the results must be regarded as suspect. However, if the assumptions do hold true or if they reasonably approximate reality, the analyses and results of decision analyses must be appreciated and understood. Their interpretation may yield improved health for patients, monetary savings, or an explicit understanding of the uncertainties that exist and the tradeoffs that must be considered in decision making in primary care. PMID:7617785

  3. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  4. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter from Einstein and the coincidence in time between the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the developments in science and technology for the entire second half of the twentieth century. For the first time in the entire history of the world the leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that fundamental research can bring great practical benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of countries. Namely, they can give the brand new super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a broad organizational and financial support of fundamental and deriving from them applied research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental and applied research on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress. We consider the development of mathematical methods of research and information technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial intelligence"

  5. Pathological gambling in Parkinson's disease: subthalamic oscillations during economics decisions.

    Rosa, Manuela; Fumagalli, Manuela; Giannicola, Gaia; Marceglia, Sara; Lucchiari, Claudio; Servello, Domenico; Franzini, Angelo; Pacchetti, Claudio; Romito, Luigi; Albanese, Alberto; Porta, Mauro; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Priori, Alberto

    2013-10-01

    Pathological gambling develops in up to 8% of patients with Parkinson's disease. Although the pathophysiology of gambling remains unclear, several findings argue for a dysfunction in the basal ganglia circuits. To clarify the role of the subthalamic nucleus in pathological gambling, we studied its activity during economics decisions. We analyzed local field potentials recorded from deep brain stimulation electrodes in the subthalamic nucleus while parkinsonian patients with (n = 8) and without (n = 9) pathological gambling engaged in an economics decision-making task comprising conflictual trials (involving possible risk-taking) and non conflictual trials. In all parkinsonian patients, subthalamic low frequencies (2-12 Hz) increased during economics decisions. Whereas, in patients without gambling, low-frequency oscillations exhibited a similar pattern during conflictual and non conflictual stimuli, in those with gambling, low-frequency activity increased significantly more during conflictual than during non conflictual stimuli. The specific low-frequency oscillatory pattern recorded in patients with Parkinson's disease who gamble could reflect a subthalamic dysfunction that makes their decisional threshold highly sensitive to risky options. When parkinsonian patients process stimuli related to an economics task, low-frequency subthalamic activity increases. This task-related change suggests that the cognitive-affective system that drives economics decisional processes includes the subthalamic nucleus. The specific subthalamic neuronal activity during conflictual decisions in patients with pathological gambling supports the idea that the subthalamic nucleus is involved in behavioral strategies and in the pathophysiology of gambling. PMID:23554027

  6. Decision Analysis and Expert Systems

    Henrion, Max; Breese, John S.; Horvitz, Eric J.

    1991-01-01

    Decision analysis and expert systems are technologies intended to support human reasoning and decision making by formalizing expert knowledge so that it is amenable to mechanized reasoning methods. Despite some common goals, these two paradigms have evolved divergently, with fundamental differences in principle and practice. Recent recognition of the deficiencies of traditional AI techniques for treating uncertainty, coupled with the development of belief nets and influence diagrams, is stimu...

  7. Roads Economic Decision Model (RED) Economic Evaluation of Low Volume Roads

    Rodrigo S. Archondo-Callao

    2001-01-01

    This note presents the Roads Economic Decision Model (RED) that performs an economic evaluation of road investments, and maintenance options, customized to the characteristics of low-volume roads, such as: high uncertainty of the assessment of traffic, road condition, and future maintenance of unpaved roads; periods with pass disruptions; levels of service, and corresponding road user cost...

  8. Real analysis with economic applications

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimizatio

  9. Economic Analysis of Transnational Education

    Lien, Donald

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher


  10. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle

  11. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  12. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

    Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

    2009-10-01

    What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

  13. Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

    Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

    2014-10-01

    Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. PMID:25105951

  14. Ego depletion decreases trust in economic decision making

    Ainsworth, Sarah E.; BAUMEISTER, ROY F.; Vohs, Kathleen D.; Ariely, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Three experiments tested the effects of ego depletion on economic decision making. Participants completed a task either requiring self-control or not. Then participants learned about the trust game, in which senders are given an initial allocation of $10 to split between themselves and another person, the receiver. The receiver receives triple the amount given and can send any, all, or none of the tripled money back to the sender. Participants were assigned the role of the sender and decided ...

  15. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    Delmar, M. V.; SĂžrensen, John Dalsgaard

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...

  16. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  17. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

  18. Evaluating the quality and use of economic data in decisions about essential medicines

    Corrina Moucheraud

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective To evaluate the quality of economic data provided in applications to the World Health Organization (WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and to evaluate the role of these data in decision-making by the expert committee that considers the applications. Methods We analysed applications submitted to the WHO Expert Committee on the Selection and Use of Essential Medicines between 2002 and 2013. The completeness of data on the price and cost-effectiveness of medicines was extracted from application documents and coded using a four-point scale. We recorded whether or not the expert committee discussed economic information and the outcomes of each application. Associations between the completeness of economic data and application outcomes were assessed using χ2 tests. Findings The expert committee received 134 applications. Only eight applications (6% included complete price data and economic evaluation data. Many applicants omitted or misinterpreted the economic evaluation section of the application form. Despite the lack of economic data, all applications were reviewed by the committee. There was no significant association between the completeness of economic information and application outcomes. The expert committee tried to address information gaps in applications by further review and analysis of data related to the application. Conclusion The World Health Organization should revise the instructions to applicants on economic data requirements; develop new mechanisms to assist applicants in completing the application process; and define methods for the use of economic data in decision-making.

  19. Effects of age-related differences in empathy on social economic decision-making

    Beadle, Janelle N.; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher,; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Background: The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-mak...

  20. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  1. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  3. Life extension economic analysis

    Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

  4. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

  5. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making

    Nguyen, Christopher M.; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H.; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Tranel, Daniel.; Denburg, Natalie L.

    2011-01-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., “Big Five”, positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a “rational” versus an “irrational” response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated t...

  6. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

  7. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing. PMID:26929353

  8. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, BenoĂźt

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision- making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectat...

  9. Techno-Economic analysis

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  10. Economic Analysis for Health Projects.

    Hammer, Jeffrey S.

    1997-01-01

    The author applies to the health sector an approach to analyzing projects advocated in a recent paper by Devarajan, Squire, and Suthiwart-Narueput. In the health sector, a project evaluation should: 1) Establish a firm justification for public involvement. The author identifies a number of common failures in the markets for both health services and insurance but argues that this should be the starting place for economic analysis, not a reason to ignore economics; 2) Establish the counterfactu...

  11. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  12. How Moral Arguments Influence Economic Decisions and Organizational Legitimacy: The Case of Offshoring Production

    M. Schröder(Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron, Hamburg, Germany)

    2013-01-01

    How do moral arguments influence economic decisions? This study reconstructs five discussions about offshoring production to low-cost countries to understand how moral arguments attack the legitimacy of economic strategies. From these case studies about offshoring, I derive three mechanisms by which moral arguments influence economic decisions. Firstly, moral arguments appeal to values, influencing what their addressee defines as economically rational. Secondly, denouncing management decision...

  13. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  14. Energy-economics-environment analysis

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on topical studies related to energy and nuclear power in the context of sustainable development, and of techno-economic factors potentially affecting the future development of nuclear technologies. It offers over-arching analyses of energy, environmental and economic issues in the context of national sustainable development and energy security goals, and in competitive markets. These studies are done in collaboration with or used by MS and other international organisations for informed decision-making about the future role of nuclear technologies. The IAEA further offers energy assessments: comparing different energy technologies and choices, exploring and quantifying their costs, consequences and benefits, with a special focus, where appropriate, on nuclear power. Economic assessments offered include comparing the costs, relative cost-effectiveness and viability of nuclear and other technology choices, policy alternatives, or different climate change mitigation or sustainable development strategies, taking into account technology learning and innovation. Environmental assessments offered include estimating environmental impacts and external costs (health effects and materials damage) of pollution arising from specific energy production and use patterns

  15. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  16. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...... types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an...

  17. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  18. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R.; perry, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and e...

  19. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R.; perry, C.J.; W. G. M. Bastiaanssen

    2009-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and e...

  20. Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry

    Oscarson, Nils

    2006-01-01

    The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

  1. Multicriteria decision analysis with influence diagram / decision tree models

    A case study has been performed to determine how multiple attributes as risk and cost criteria can be used for comparing severe accident management strategies for nuclear power plants. A mixed influence diagram/decision tree modelling technique has been used to model the strategies, combining the benefits of both separate techniques. It is concluded that multiple attributes like individual risk, group risk and strategy implementation costs can be addressed. A full-scope multicriteria decision analysis has been performed. (orig.)

  2. Economic Analysis of Welfare Economics, Morality and the Law

    Steven Shavell

    2003-01-01

    This paper contains the chapters on welfare economics, morality, and the law from a general, forthcoming book, Foundations of Economic Analysis of Law (Harvard University Press, 2003). I begin in chapter 26 with a discussion of the normative foundations of economic analysis, namely, the subject of welfare economics. I also describe notions of morality and fairness, which play an important, if dominant, role in much normative discourse about law, and I discuss the connections between welfare e...

  3. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  4. Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling

    We present the findings of a literature survey on decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling. Surveyed studies are classified according to the decision analysis technique used and by application area. It has been found that decision making under uncertainty is the most important application technique and energy planning and policy analysis is the most common application area. The results of a multiple attribute analysis on suitability and actual level of usage of each decision analysis technique for energy and environmental applications are also presented. (author)

  5. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  6. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  7. Economic decision making of renewable power producers under uncertainty

    Lou, Chenlu

    The recent booming development of renewable power generation and government subsidies are constantly under scrutiny and various opinions exist regarding whether subsidies should be continued or not. Motivated by the controversies and debates, this dissertation attempted to address the investment decision making problem under uncertainties in the renewable power industry from the perspective of an individual power producer. Given that independent power producers still dominate the renewable power production and that majority of their output are sold through long-term power purchase agreements, this study focused on two types of uncertainties that could represent most of their kinds: the operations & maintenance (O&M) cost and governmental subsidy's renewal/expiration. Three types of investment activities that covers the major part of any renewable power plant's economic life are thoroughly investigated in a chronological order: an initial entry, exit when the plant reaches its economic life, and repowering. A real-options approach was adopted and improved to model the value of a power plant considering its future activities, while both cost and policy changes modeled as some stochastic processes. Significant policy implications and managerial insights were obtained as a result of extensive analytical modeling and statistical study of empirical evidence.

  8. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  9. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  10. An analysis of medical decision making

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  11. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  12. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. PMID:25855475

  13. An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

    Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

  14. Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis

    Seidel, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

  15. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  17. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  18. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  19. ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGICAL FIELD OF INTUITION IN STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

    BODNÁR Zoltån

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We all make decisions almost every day in our active life. This force can be observed by the operation of organizations and companies. It is impossible to modify the outcomes of our bad decisions, or no way revise at all. Several decision making processes and methods are exist with the help of coming to better decisions. The intuition is also essential, because many decisions be influenced by it. This paper deals with the reliability of the above mentioned dual influence: intuition and decision making processes through practical examples.

  20. Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease.

    Peeler, E J; Otte, M J

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at improving the underpinning evidence base. PMID:25268879

  1. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  2. Applying Bayesian decision theory to assess reprocessing economic and social cost-benefits

    Bayesian decision theory, combined with conventional systems analysis techniques into the discipline called decision analysis, has been applied in this work to assess economic and social cost-benefits associated with reprocessing nuclear fuel. Particular attention in this paper is given to the models which have been developed to place numerical estimates in dollar terms on the three categories of social risks that have been identified with reprocessing. These categories include: (1) health, environment, and safety, (2) diversion of fissile material, including sabotage, terrorist acts, and subnational diversion, and (3) nuclear proliferation, defined to be a diversion at the national level to obtain weapons capability. The emphasis is placed on the third category, as proliferation risk has not been treated elsewhere in a quantitative fashion; most arguments have in the main been qualitative conjectures put forth by political scientists

  3. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project...... recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range of......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...

  4. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of nuclear power from the perspective of sustainable development. Nuclear issues have become lied at the center of social concerns in Korea because they include not only the field of energy supply but also the social interests and conflicts. This study will help to provide the unbiased information, which can be referred to and utilized in reaching a social consensus on the related social issues. This study includes both the nuclear related issues in the electricity planning and the regional economic effects by nuclear power. The nuclear related issues in the electricity planning in the study include the probability assessment of the current national forecasted electricity demand being materialized, projection of the proper nuclear capacity, and the proper role and prospects of renewable energy, and distributed generation. For the analysis on the regional economic effect from nuclear power, the region of Uljin was chosen, and input output analysis on the region was carried out. For the input output analysis, we created the regional I/O table by classifying the number of producing sectors into 14 taking into consideration the availability of the regional statistics

  5. The coordination dynamics of economic decision making: a multilevel approach to social neuroeconomics.

    Oullier, Olivier; Kirman, Alan P; Kelso, J A Scott

    2008-12-01

    The basic reciprocity between individual parts and collective organization constitutes a key scientific question spanning the biological and social sciences. Such reciprocity is accompanied by the absence of direct linkages between levels of description giving rise to what is often referred to as the aggregation or nonequivalence problem between levels of analysis. This issue is encountered both in neuroscience and economics. So far, in spite of being identified and extensively discussed in various (other) scientific fields, the problem of understanding the nature of the interactions and coordination dynamics between individual (neuron approximately agent) and collective (neural networks approximately population of humans) behaviors has received little, if any attention in the growing field of neuroeconomics. The present contribution focuses on bringing a theoretical perspective to the interpretation of experiments recently published in this field and addressing how the concepts and methods of coordination dynamics may impact future research. First, we very briefly discuss the links between biology and economics. Second, we address the nonequivalence problem between different levels of analysis and the concept of reciprocal causality. Third, neuroeconomics studies that investigate the neural underpinnings of social decision making in the context of two economic games (trust and ultimatum) are reviewed to highlight issues that arise when experimental results exist at multiple scales of observation and description. Finally, in the last two sections, we discuss how coordination dynamics might provide novel routes to studying and modelling the relation between brain activity and decision making. PMID:19144588

  6. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Sanfey Alan G; Scheres Anouk

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension th...

  7. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

  8. Sugar Beet Production: A System Dynamics Model and Economic Analysis

    Rozman ?rtomir

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns.

  9. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

    Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; NEUBERG, STEVEN L.

    2009-01-01

    What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to...

  10. Brain Activity and Network in Economic Decision-Making

    Bidhan Lamichhane; Sarah F Brosnan

    2010-01-01

    Much of our everyday life involves making decisions and choices. Using behavioral paradigms from game theory, recent neuroimaging studies have begun to probe the underlying brain processes associated with human decision-making in the context of social interactions. These studies identified the prefrontal cortex as a decision-making hub that incorporates emotional biases from affect-related brain regions. Using the Ultimatum Game, Impunity Game and Fixed Decided Offers, we conducted behavioral...

  11. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevole...

  12. Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth

    NIELSEN, Ron W.

    2015-01-01

    Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and s...

  13. Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance

    Spronk, Jaap; Steuer, R.E.; Zopounidis, C.

    2005-01-01

    MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the central streams of multiple criteria decision analysis literature. These literature streams are: MCDA today, Foundations of MCDA, Our Ranking Methods, Multiattribute Utility Theory, Non-Classical MCDA Approache...

  14. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Matthew E. Bates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach. Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA, value of information (VOI, weight of evidence (WOE, and portfolio decision analysis (PDA can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  15. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ∌50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  16. Innovation decision of Tunisian service firms: an empirical analysis

    Sdiri, Hanen; Ayadi, Mohamed

    2011-01-01

    Innovation is widely recognised as a key driver of economic growth and competitiveness. But, some works focus especially on analyzing the determinants and the effects of innovation while distinguishing between its various types (product innovation, process innovation, radical innovation and incremental innovation). The analysis of the determinants is certainly important, but few research efforts testing the way in which firms make the decision to innovate. Based on a sample of 108 Tunisian se...

  17. Productivity of prolific sheep : Economic analysis

    I. Inounu

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The existence of major gene in the Indonesian sheep breeds has been revealed in three different genotypes which are further implied that different levels of feeding and management are necessary to realize the potential benefits for each genotype . The variability in the ewe production as a result of the differences in genotype and management levels were then evaluated by economic analysis . The result shows that improvement in management practices resulted in an increase of production ofindividual breeding ewe (BS. However, since these increases in performance required additional cost for higher input value, as it was indicated in the total production cost, attention must be given toward the decision as to which genotype to raise at what level of feeding management . This study has shown promising results to facilitate the decision makers in that direction, for example, ewes with FecJFFecJ` genotype gained the highest gross margin when they were treated with high level of feeding management. The next best alternative was followed by FecJ FFecJ F genotype. Furthermore, in the situation where low level of feeding management being practiced, ewes carrying the FecJF gene did not show their superiority since they gained lower gross margin compared with the non-carrier ewes.

  18. Decision making, risk assessment, and uncertainty analysis in environmental management

    Environmental management involves making decisions that will lead to the solution of environmental restoration and waste management (ER/WM) problems. Not only are ER/WM problems technologically challenging, but they must be dealt with under politically and emotionally charged conditions. Furthermore, these decisions must be made based on less than certain information. Therefore, environmental managers must consider the sources of uncertainty that will impact the results of the decision-making process, treat them in an explicit manner, and assess their impact on the decision. Consequently, the process must be a defensible, objective, and transparent one; otherwise the foundation for solving ER/WM problems will not be sufficiently solid to survive the criticisms that such solutions are likely to be subjected to. The use of risk assessment and decision analysis tools helps the environmental manager achieve this goal. It is also important that these decisions consider the array of risk-related issues associated with ER/WM problems, which include the risk to the health and safety of the public as well as other risks such as economic risk. The solution of ER/WM problems must obtain and maintain a proper balance between all these issues. It is also crucial that the multiple stakeholders having an interest in the solution of ER/WM problems be involved in the decision-making process

  19. Economic Analysis of Social Network - Facebook

    SerafimovskĂĄ, Kety

    2013-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on the economic analysis of the company Facebook, Inc. which is the most famous social network in the world. The first part deals with the theoretical background of social networks, economic analyses and stock analyses. There are described the basic definition, history, methods of economic analysis and types of stock analysis (fundamental, technical and psychological analysis). In the practical part are used selected methods and they are applied to the compa...

  20. Implicit race attitudes predict trustworthiness judgments and economic trust decisions

    Stanley, Damian A.; Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Banaji, Mahzarin R; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2011-01-01

    Trust lies at the heart of every social interaction. Each day we face decisions in which we must accurately assess another individual's trustworthiness or risk suffering very real consequences. In a global marketplace of increasing heterogeneity with respect to nationality, race, and multiple other social categories, it is of great value to understand how implicitly held attitudes about group membership may support or undermine social trust and thereby implicitly shape the decisions we make. ...

  1. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  2. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Jakob Simmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  3. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

  4. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth; MÞgelvang-Hansen, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background...... by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information...... is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that...

  5. Economic analysis of production bottlenecks

    Lawrence Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

  6. Applying economic analysis to technical assistance projects

    McMahon, Gary

    1997-01-01

    The author recommends using more quantitative economic analysis in appraising technical assistance loans and loan components. After giving a brief history of tecnhical assistance and the problems commonly associated with it, he describes classifications of technical assistance, proposes a new typology to be used for project appraisal, suggests methods for screening projects, and discusses different levels of economic analysis. He shows how the typology and economic analysis could be applied t...

  7. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  8. On the use of event studies to evaluate economic policy decisions: A note of caution

    Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam; Budzinski, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Event studies represent an increasingly popular method to evaluate (future) welfare effects of economic policy decisions. The basic idea is to hire the stock market as a referee, i.e. that stock market reactions to the announcement of policy decision are interpreted to contain superior information about the (future) welfare effects of these decisions. This paper investigates the degree of reliability of event studies as a policy programs evaluation method by critically reflecting upon two und...

  9. Increasing the impact of economic evaluations on health care decision-making

    Douglas Coyle

    1993-01-01

    Although there is a substantial amount of literature recording the increasing number of economic evaluations of health care interventions, there is little discussion of the level of impact such studies have had on decision-making. In this paper the evidence relating to impact which does exist is examined. The implication from this is that social science research has made little direct impact on health care decision-making. Theories relating to the process of research utilisation in decision-m...

  10. Independent individual decision-makers in household models and the new home economics

    Grossbard, Shoshana Amyra

    2010-01-01

    Much of the recent literature in household economics has been critical of unitary models of household decision-making. Most alternative models currently used are bargaining models and consensual models, including collective models. This paper discusses another alternative: independent individual models of decision-making that don't make any specific assumptions of jointness of decision-making in households. Unitary models are typically associated with Gary Becker even though most of Becker’s ...

  11. Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations

    By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

  12. Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Part 2: Economic analysis

    1972-01-01

    An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) cost uncertainties, (2) scenario analysis, (3) economic sensitivities, (4) mixed integer programming formulation of the space tug problem, and (5) critical parameters in the evaluation of a public expenditure.

  13. Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

    John, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

  14. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  15. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-01-01

    The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and fra...

  16. The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions

    Izotov Viktor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

  17. Decision making and economic performance of flower producers

    Trip, G.

    2000-01-01

    Within Dutch agriculture, greenhouse horticulture stands out as a growing and innovative sector. In such circumstances of growth and innovation, one would expect a fast development of management support systems. However, apart from climate control, the role of computerized support systems for management purposes (planning/evaluation) is still very limited. The purpose of this study is get insight into the decision-making processes of greenhouse growers. A group of 26 specialized, comparable c...

  18. A DECISION TREE APPLICATION IN TOURISM BASED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Curtis, Panayiotis G.; Kokotos, Dimitris X.

    2009-01-01

    The reasons for the deficient performance of Ionian Islands tourism in terms of in coming revenues expressed in USD and return on equity capital invested on hotels is explored. The answers to the questioner of management of the hotels surveyed were analyzed with the use of the Decision Tree tool. The issue of competitiveness of the tourism product was assessed. The development of alternative forms of tourism is proposed as a means of improving competitiveness and restoring sustainability in t...

  19. Sunk costs of consumer search: economic rationality of satisficing decision

    Malakhov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The paper argues that sunk costs’ sensitivity can lead to the optimal consumption-leisure choice under price dispersion. The increase in quantity to be purchased with the extension of the time horizon of the consumption-leisure choice equalizes marginal costs of search with its marginal benefits. The implicit optimal choice results in the explicit satisficing decision. The transformation of cognitive mechanism of discouragement into satisficing happens only in the “common model” of consumer b...

  20. WOMEN'S BARGAINING POWER IN HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC DECISIONS: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

    Doss, Cheryl R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the percentage of assets held by women within the household is used as a measure of women's bargaining power. The assets used in this paper include land, savings, and business assets. Using detailed household survey data from Ghana, I demonstrate that the share of assets owned by women has a significant impact on household expenditure decisions. This provides additional support for the notion that women's bargaining power can be measured, at least in some dimensions, and that w...

  1. Economic aspects of using activation analysis facilities

    A method of estimating the economic efficiency of installations for neutron-activation analysis is described. The principal indices of economic efficiency of such installations are considered to be change in the extraction coefficient of main product; change in reagent consumption; and costs of analysis of unit product. The capital investments are calculated on the installation, reduced costs, and period during which capital investments are compensated. Calculations show the use of the activation analysis installation in various branches of the Soviet industry to be economically efficient. The examples of considerable economic effect obtained from using a set of automatic devices for measuring boron concentration are given

  2. Cognitive Control and Individual Differences in Economic Ultimatum Decision-Making

    De Neys, Wim; Novitski Nikolai, Kolja; Geeraerts, Leen; Ramautar, Jennifer; Wagemans, Johan

    2011-01-01

    Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responder...

  3. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  4. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to outperform the superior program. Adding ED to the 100% TAI programs was only beneficial for the program with the lower CR. The improvement in service rate required for the 100% ED program to have the same NPV as the superior 100% TAI program was 12%. The decision support system developed in this study is a valuable tool that may be used to assist dairy producers and industry consultants in selecting the best farm-specific reproductive management strategy. PMID:22118110

  5. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  6. A DECISION TREE APPLICATION IN TOURISM BASED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Panayiotis G.Curtis

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The reasons for the deficient performance of Ionian Islands tourism in terms of in coming revenues expressed in USD and return on equity capital invested on hotels is explored. The answers to the questioner of management of the hotels surveyed were analyzed with the use of the Decision Tree tool. The issue of competitiveness of the tourism product was assessed. The development of alternative forms of tourism is proposed as a means of improving competitiveness and restoring sustainability in the sector.

  7. Using health economic models to help guide healthcare decisions.

    Charokopou, M

    2016-02-01

    This editorial accompanies a research article being published by Clinical Medical Research and Opinion (CMRO) journal, entitled "Methods applied in cost-effectiveness models for treatment strategies in type 2 diabetes mellitus and their use in Health Technology Assessments: a systematic review of the literature from 2008 to 2013". The importance and the contribution of this research to the scientific community are presented on the grounds of serving the decision-making process of evaluating and approving T2DM treatments for public funding. PMID:26473453

  8. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

  9. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  10. Economic Analysis of Loudness War

    VilĂ­m, TomĂĄĆĄ

    2014-01-01

    This thesis determines whether the loudness war phenomenon has an effect on the success of individual songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. Presented theoretical part introduces this rather technical problem to economists, an insight is provided into the distribution chain of music recordings as well as into the decision-making of consumers. The key factors determining the chart position are identified following the research of existing theory and are used to create an ordinary least squares ...

  11. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

  12. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

  13. International student mobility in crisis? understanding post-diploma mobility decision-making in an economic crisis context

    Cairns, D

    2015-01-01

    This article examines student mobility in Portugal, with the aim of understanding what prompts the decision to leave, with particular emphasis upon the weight of factors associated with the on-going economic crisis. Findings from a survey of 400 Lisbon students conducted during 2014 are used to demonstrate the popularity of the idea of moving abroad after the completion of present course of study, with 35% indicating an intention to leave Portugal. Regression analysis confirms that factors as...

  14. Fractional State Space Analysis of Economic Systems

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado; Maria Eugénia Mata; Lopes, António M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and th...

  15. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  16. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible. PMID:26581731

  17. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  18. Analysis of the Post-Crisis Economic Performances in the European Union

    Madalina Ecaterina Popescu; Maria-Isadora Lazar

    2015-01-01

    The effects of the economic crisis continue to impact the world economy even if the most difficult period of the crisis seems to have passed. In this context, the analysis of the economic performance becomes stringent in that it not only allows for the identification of the economic environment, but also due to the fact that it brings value by determining the automated correction of any decision or direction in the difficult economic context of today. The paper represents a study ...

  19. The economic costs of court decisions concerning dismissals in Japan: Identification by judge transfers

    OKUDAIRA Hiroko

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to detect the degree to which court decisions control the stringency of employment protection and investigate how such judicial discretion affects labor market performance. However, Identification difficulty arises because court decisions are volatile against economic and social conditions. This paper overcomes the endogeneity problem by exploiting the triennial judge transfer system in Japan, or the exogenous allocation of judges to prefectures. Specifically, I esti...

  20. The Decision on Commercialisation of Scientific and Technical Developments in the Economic Cluster

    Buyanova Marina Eduardovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of the strategy of national economy innovative development, the urgent problem consists in the development of the mechanism of commercialization of existing or newly emerging developments. On the basis of comparative analysis, the competency models of creation and commercialization of scientific and technological developments are presented. They include state, scientific and industrial as well as industrial and scientific models allocated by the following criteria: the initiator of an STD; the cooperation technique within the cluster. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are substantiated. The authors propose the technique of decision-making on the STD commercialization in the conditions of the cluster economic system formation taking into account the expansion of the participants’ integration at the regional market. The technique consists of a few methods and is based on the construction of a “decision tree”; it suggests a multi-level approach and provides a review of existing problems and identifying possible risks in implementing innovation activity. For evaluating the innovative projects the authors propose the matrix of criteria for a developer and for a potential manufacturer of a scientific and technological solution. These criteria may be complemented by the implementation of specific ones during the innovative development under certain conditions.

  1. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    ChristopherSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  2. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  3. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  4. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of gender participation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selection of crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children’s education, while females always made decision on types of food for home consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significant factors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making. Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of women involvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operative societies are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economic activities and decision making.

  5. Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

    Grauer, M.; Wierzbicki, A.P.

    1984-01-01

    An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social probl...

  6. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

  7. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  9. Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision; Effet de serre modelisation economique et decision publique

    Giraud, P.N

    2002-03-01

    As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

  10. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Rongjun Yu

    2015-01-01

    World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral scie...

  11. Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making

    Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

    2010-01-01

    To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's ...

  12. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. PMID:26496882

  13. Cluster Analysis of Economic Datas

    Hana ?ezanková

    2014-01-01

    In the paper, some classical and recent approaches to cluster analysis are discussed. Over the last decades researchers focused mainly on categorical data clustering, uncertainty in cluster analysis and clustering large data sets. In this paper some of the recently proposed techniques are introduced, such as similarity measures for data files with nominal variables, algorithms which include uncertainty in clustering, and the method for data files with many objects.

  14. Cluster Analysis of Economic Datas

    Hana ?ezanková

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, some classical and recent approaches to cluster analysis are discussed. Over the last decades researchers focused mainly on categorical data clustering, uncertainty in cluster analysis and clustering large data sets. In this paper some of the recently proposed techniques are introduced, such as similarity measures for data files with nominal variables, algorithms which include uncertainty in clustering, and the method for data files with many objects.

  15. Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value

    Tobias Brosch

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

  16. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  17. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    The topics to be addressed in this study include the mid and long-term strategic plan of KAERI, international panel review on KAERI, Human Resources Development specialized in nuclear field, economic feasibility studies on the several development projects including SMART, new research reactor and Sodium Fast Reactor. The existing R and D plans of KAERI as well as the related national programs, were reviewed and reflected to the plan. As the first step, the long-term R and D goals were identified, allowing for unique characteristics of nuclear R and D requiring long term investment. Secondly, five mid-term strategic goals were derived from the long term goals. Thirdly, many research projects to achieve the derived goals were identified, and then, 14 R and D projects were selected from the identified projects based on the criterion of the size of potential market. Finally, five strategic R and D projects with high priority were chosen based on the criterion of the existing research capacities. The value of acquisition of a design certificate of SMART was estimated to be in the range of 201.7∌320.1 billion won far exceeding 170 billion won the total budget for it. The study suggests the probable selling prices of SMART ranging from 91 Won/kWh to 134 Won/kWh in case KHNP takes initiative the construction of SMART. As a result of the project, GHG reduction potential in 2020 was estimated to be 44 million ton in electric power generation, 1 million ton in oil refinery sector, 16 million ton in residential sector, 12 million ton in commercial sector and 22 million ton in transportation sector

  18. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  19. Aging and wisdom: age-related changes in economic and social decision making.

    Lim, Kenneth Teck Kiat; Yu, Rongjun

    2015-01-01

    World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a "phenomenon of decline" and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: (1) prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations; (2) resolving social conflicts; (3) emotional homeostasis; (4) self-reflection; (5) dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly. PMID:26150788

  20. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Rongjun Yu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  1. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    SĂžgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... the findings of studies that was hard to explain. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Health economic models of the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms published between 2005-2010 were included. Key characteristics...... health economic models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

  2. Can Economic Analysis Contribute to Disease Elimination and Eradication? A Systematic Review

    Sicuri, Elisa; Evans, D. B.; Tediosi, F

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases elimination and eradication have become important areas of focus for global health and countries. Due to the substantial up-front investments required to eliminate and eradicate, and the overall shortage of resources for health, economic analysis can inform decision making on whether elimination/eradication makes economic sense and on the costs and ...

  3. Fractional State Space Analysis of Economic Systems

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS method and state space portrait (SSP analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

  4. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  5. Economic analysis of industrial metals commodities

    Vaƈourek, Tomåƥ

    2013-01-01

    Diploma thesis is focused on the economic analysis of industrial metals market and the main objective is to explain main price movements rules and predict future price movements using fundamental, technical and psychological analysis and ADF and econometric model to confirm or deny dependency of the price on the explaining variables and strength of the connections.

  6. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  7. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  9. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  10. A case-based approach to decision analysis

    Xiong, Ning [Maelardalen Univ., Vaesteraas (Sweden). School of Innovation, Design and Engineering

    2009-07-01

    This paper proposes a novel approach for integrating case-based reasoning (CBR) and decision theory for casebased decision analysis. CBR is employed as a methodology to reason from previous cases for building a decision model given a current situation, while decision theory is applied to the decision model learnt from previous cases to identify the most promising, secured, and rational choices. We have also tackled the issue of imprecise utility in individual cases and explained how fuzzy decision analysis can be conducted when case specific utilities are represented with fuzzy data. (orig.)

  11. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    O’Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared thre...

  12. Economic analysis in health care antitrust.

    Vita, M G; Langenfeld, J; Pautler, P; Miller, L

    1991-01-01

    The Federal Trade Commission (FTC or Commission) has been very active in enforcing antitrust laws in the health care field for the past two decades. The staff has investigated a wide variety of cases covering a broad range of restrictions on competition. These cases can be divided into three basic types of cases in health care: (1) mergers and acquisitions, (2) horizontal restraints cases or agreements among competitors, and (3) input market monopolization cases, such as hospital privileges cases. The Commission relies on both legal and economic analysis in all of these cases. As Chairman Steiger of the Federal Trade Commission has stated, antitrust policy has been "increasingly reshaped by analysis based on economic theory." This article attempts to explain the economic analysis used in antitrust enforcement as applied to the first two of the three types of health care cases. Section I presents the basic economic framework that is used to assess the competitive implications of health care mergers and acquisitions. Section II describes the analysis applied to other agreements among competitors in the health care field and briefly explains how this analysis differs in other health care cases. PMID:10111250

  13. Who is Willing to Let Ethics Guide His Economic Decision-Making? Evidence from Individual Investments in Ethical Funds

    SÀve-Söderbergh, Jenny

    2005-01-01

    Recent economics literature has devoted attention towards motives beyond the typical selfish norm for economic decision-making. Yet, it still remains a puzzle who allows such considerations to govern their behavior. This paper contributes by empirically identifying some features which differentiate individuals who choose to bear the cost of ethically guided economic decision-making from others. Using unique Swedish data on individual pension portfolio choices, we find that education, the choi...

  14. Decision Model for the Arctic – Cross-Impact Analysis

    SigurĂ°ur Valur GuĂ°mundsson 1984

    2014-01-01

    This research is on the field of decision analysis and decision making. It is a part of a larger project called “An open access decision model for strategic planning of the Arctic region” (DMA). The DMA project is arranged by CORDA (Centre of Risk and Decision Analysis), a division of the School of Science and Engineering at Reykjavík University. Purpose – The goal of the research is to collect data for a decision model for the Arctic region and to develop a working cross-impact analysis (...

  15. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    Ayoola

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria....

  16. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; Webb, E.C.

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  17. Purchasing Decision Process in the Context of the Economic Crisis in Romania

    Magdalena Platis

    2010-01-01

    In the market place, the consumer behavior has always been an attractive area for the purpose of better defining the marketing strategies and alternative options for companies. In addition, the decision-making process has been a starting point for understanding the consumer behavior and identifying the positioning and segmentation variables for the company. In the context of the contemporary international economic crisis, many changes affect the consumers. We assist to new rules in the daily ...

  18. Spend more today: Using behavioural economics to improve retirement expenditure decisions

    Blake, David; Boardman, Tom

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how behavioural economics can be used to improve the expenditure decisions of retirees. It identifies how accumulated assets can be used optimally throughout retirement to produce life-long income when required, to make provision for contingencies – such as unanticipated spikes in expenditure – and to optimize the size and timing of bequests. We do this using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan which employs defaults with...

  19. Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value

    Tobias Brosch

    2013-01-01

    Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior ...

  20. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  1. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  2. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  3. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  4. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

  5. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    Nai-gen ZHANG

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available
    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
    Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
    RĂ©sumĂ©: L’analyse Ă©conomique de la loi internationale est le nouveau dĂ©veloppement des thĂ©ories de la loi internationale dans la derniĂšre dĂ©cennie. BasĂ© sur des rĂ©fĂ©rences existantes, cette thĂšse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse Ă©conomique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des mĂ©thodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, lĂ©gale et Ă©conomique afin de comprendre les problĂšmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idĂ©es. La partie I procĂšde Ă  une comparaison brĂšve entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle Ă©conomique et Ă  une description des analyses Ă©conomiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations thĂ©oriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III Ă  la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse Ă©conomique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation Ă©conomique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dĂ©gagĂ©e.
    Mots-ClĂ©s: thĂ©orie de la loi internationale, analyse Ă©conomique, loi internationale de l’organisation Ă©conomique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

  6. Economic analysis of Indian pumped storage schemes

    Highlights: ‱ We analyzed economic aspects of pumped storage schemes in India. ‱ We analyzed various costs involved in pumped storage operation in India. ‱ We analyzed the techno-economic benefits of Kadamparai pumped storage plant. ‱ Results show pumped storage operation in India is economically justifiable. - Abstract: Pumped-hydro energy storage schemes (PHES) are developed for improving the net efficiency of the base load thermal power plants. These schemes are operated only at times of peak demand and during major power plant outages. In India, the first pumped storage plant was commissioned during 1985 and till today eleven plants with on aggregate installed capacity of 4804 MW have been in operation. However all these plants up to the year 2003 have generated energy less than the projected figures. The major reason for less output from the PHES in India, than that envisaged in the planning stage is deficit of off-peak power availability for pumping operation in almost all the regional power grids except north-eastern grid. But gradual increase in efficiency has been realized from PHES operation after introduction of the availability based tariff (ABT) in 2003. Further, the increase in peak power demand, requirement of spinning reserve, increased generation from renewable energy sources have singly and combinedly triggered the necessity for installation of more pumped storage schemes in the country. Under these circumstances, this analysis addresses the economics of pumped storage schemes in India with special reference to Kadamparai PHES. Various costs involved in pumped storage operation are analyzed in the Indian context. The case study reveals considerable techno-economic benefits obtained by more operational hours of the PHES in the state grid after 2003. The analysis and results would be useful for investors and researchers to understand the economics of Indian pumped storage schemes

  7. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat sealant in preventing a new intramammary infection in a cow free of infection in all quarters of the mammary gland at drying off. However, a potential net loss of over ÂŁ20 per cow might occur if t...

  8. Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses

    Baddeley, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour ...

  9. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  10. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    P.J. Sebei

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians.

  11. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians. PMID:15214690

  12. Decision analysis: dealing with uncertainty in diagnostic testing.

    Smith, R D; Slenning, B D

    2000-05-30

    Decision analysis is a process for systematically analyzing complex choices by considering all pertinent information. In this paper, we discuss how uncertainty associated with diagnostic testing can be included in a decision analysis using pay-off tables and decision trees (decision-flow diagrams). Variables associated with diagnostic test interpretation (such as pre-test and post-test probability of disease; test sensitivity, specificity and predictive values; fixed cut-offs versus continuous measurement scales; test dependence associated with the use of multiple tests) are considered. Several decision criteria and output measures are discussed (including MAXIMIN and MAXIMAX criteria, opportunity costs, expected monetary values, expected utility, sensitivity and risk-profile analysis, and threshold analysis). The application of decision analysis to diagnostic testing for Johne's disease and traumatic reticuloperitonitis of cattle, and for canine heartworm disease are used to illustrate both population- and patient-oriented applications and criteria for ranking the desirability of different outcomes. PMID:10802338

  13. Economic Freedom Verses Economic Growth: Cross Countries Analysis in the form of ARDL approch

    Khalid Mahmood; Toseef Azid

    2011-01-01

    The generous theoretical and empirical debates are available on institutional freedom and economic growth, but unsuccessful to facilitate stationary conclusion regarding the nature of connection. It is still confusing that either economic freedom cause economic growth or economic growth widens the foundation for economic freedom. The finale will be more puzzled if the analysis based on different kinds of economies. The aim of this study is to probe the nature of relationships between economic...

  14. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Jahanzaib Haider; Roomana Naz Bhutta

    2013-01-01

    Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majo...

  15. Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management.

    Marre, Jean-Baptiste; Thébaud, Olivier; Pascoe, Sean; Jennings, Sarah; Boncoeur, Jean; Coglan, Louisa

    2016-08-01

    Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as being useful to support ecosystem management decision-making. However, the extent to which it is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of economic valuation of ecosystem services, in support of coastal and marine management, are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across groups of decision-makers. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use economic valuation. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent's use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other studies on the usefulness and use of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also demonstrate the strength of the survey-based approach developed in this application to examine this issue in a variety of contexts. PMID:27136617

  16. Effect of teaching decision analysis on student nurses' clinical intervention decision making.

    Shamian, J

    1991-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of teaching decision analysis on nursing students' ability to prioritize clinical interventions given the probabilities for the decision situation. Sixty-eight university nursing students were randomly assigned to one of two groups. The 37 nursing students in the experimental group received a 4-hour didactic and interactive teaching session on decision analysis. The 31 nursing students in the control group also received a 4-hour interactive session on a nondecision analysis topic. A posttest experimental design was selected to minimize testing bias. Three clinical case studies were developed, tested, and utilized for data collection. Subjects in the experimental group selected clinical decisions that were in accordance with clinical decisions made by experts more often and more consistently than did subjects in the control group (p less than .0001). PMID:2017582

  17. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  18. Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

  19. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  20. Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects

    Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

  1. A Speech Act Analysis of Judicial Decisions

    BERNAL, Carlos L.

    2007-01-01

    According to the theory of speech acts, speech is a kind of action. He, who says something, does something. Certainly, when a judge or a court makes a decision, he or it says something. He performs some (locutionary) acts like uttering or writing some sentences. However, there is something further he does, namely, by uttering or writing some sentences in the appropriate context, he makes a judicial decision. In a judicial decision the judge says something about the law, the facts of the case,...

  2. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  3. Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly appropriate for an estimate on the costs of energy given the various technologies. Levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC) and levelized generation cost (LGC) have offered effective indicators for economic comparison among nuclear fuel cycles and were adopted to compare the fuel cycle options considered in this study. The unpredictable change of the unit costs of several key components due to the uncertainties can lead to considerable differences in levelized costs among the fuel cycle alternatives. To take these unavoidable uncertainties into account, a wide scale was applied to each unit cost and a distribution of levelized cost was also obtained

  4. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  5. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  6. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS OF QUALITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

    A. Sailaj

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In modern industries, much emphasis is given to quality as it is the most effective tool which can capture, retain and enlarge customer base. The customer satisfaction is the ultimate goal of business and no other strategy can achieve it other than attaining best quality. An improvement in quality enhances customer satisfaction, taper s manufacturing costs and of course in turn, increases productivity. But in business scenario, improving quality should be considered along with the expenses associated with it. The strategy should be to achieve high Quality in a most economic way. So identifying effective methods for the analysis of economics behind quality and reduction of costs associated with achieving quality is a serious potential management problem and should be looked in to and analyzed. Economics of Quality analysis which is also termed as cost of quality or quality cost analysis has emerged as a powerful management tool for assessing the present quality level of the organization and to identify the improvement opportunities and also supports in decision making. This paper presents a study on quality cost analysis of two manufacturing units and tries to analyze the interrelationships between quality cost categories using statistical methods. The secondary data collected from the financial records of two firms under manufacturing sector is used for this analysis. The Pearson product momentum correlation coefficient between different quality cost categories provides insight to the relationships between different quality cost elements and in turn helps management to set action priorities to be addressed to achieve good quality at lower cost. The regression analysis helps the management in estimation or prediction of the unknown value of one variable from the known value of the other variable.

  7. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER IN TURKEY

    Filiz TUTAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the global problems since we met the phenomenon of globalization, the water has also taken its place. Economic analysis of water have become a topic of examination by many economist in recent years. Water is one of the important needs of human life. Water has an important place in respect of its role in maintaining a healty way of life. However, our country’s water resources are getting polluted day by day and the amount of water need the per capita is inceasing fast year by year due to population growth. Water quality can not be observed in Turkey and the necessarydata bank is unable to be formed. Protection of water resources and the evaluation of if in accordance with beneficial use can be only done with an integrated management mechanism. The purpose of this study is to make economic analysis of water located in natural resources. In this context the analysis of water supply and demand, the place of water in the economy, water resources and use of them in Turkey, in the World and EU, finally SWOT analysis of Turkey in terms of water resources were performed.

  8. Decision-tree analysis of control strategies.

    Weber, Romann M; Fajen, Brett R

    2015-06-01

    A major focus of research on visually guided action is the identification of control strategies that map optical information to actions. The traditional approach has been to test the behavioral predictions of a few hypothesized strategies against subject behavior in environments in which various manipulations of available information have been made. While important and compelling results have been achieved with these methods, they are potentially limited by small sets of hypotheses and the methods used to test them. In this study, we introduce a novel application of data-mining techniques in an analysis of experimental data that is able to both describe and model human behavior. This method permits the rapid testing of a wide range of possible control strategies using arbitrarily complex combinations of optical variables. Through the use of decision-tree techniques, subject data can be transformed into an easily interpretable, algorithmic form. This output can then be immediately incorporated into a working model of subject behavior. We tested the effectiveness of this method in identifying the optical information used by human subjects in a collision-avoidance task. Our results comport with published research on collision-avoidance control strategies while also providing additional insight not possible with traditional methods. Further, the modeling component of our method produces behavior that closely resembles that of the subjects upon whose data the models were based. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that data-mining techniques provide powerful new tools for analyzing human data and building models that can be applied to a wide range of perception-action tasks, even outside the visual-control setting we describe. PMID:25316047

  9. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  10. Economic Evaluation of Computerized Structural Analysis

    Fortin, P. E.

    1985-01-01

    This completed effort involved a technical and economic study of the capabilities of computer programs in the area of structural analysis. The applicability of the programs to NASA projects and to other users was studied. The applications in other industries was explored including both research and development and applied areas. The costs of several alternative analysis programs were compared. A literature search covered applicable technical literature including journals, trade publications and books. In addition to the literature search, several commercial companies that have developed computerized structural analysis programs were contacted and their technical brochures reviewed. These programs include SDRC I-DEAS, MSC/NASTRAN, SCADA, SUPERSAP, NISA/DISPLAY, STAAD-III, MICAS, GTSTRUDL, and STARS. These programs were briefly reviewed as applicable to NASA projects.

  11. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  12. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc.

  13. Economic Analysis of Oil Production in Kazakhstan

    Mukatova, Altynay

    2012-01-01

    The bachelor’s thesis „Economic Analysis of Oil Production in Kazakhstan“ is dedicated to the oil and gas industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and gas, it is interesting to see which countries are its partners and are somehow dependent on the refinery business in Kazakhstan. The thesis deals with the comparison of the oil and gas consumption in the world and in Kazakhstan particularly. The main aim is to show that Kazakhstan is ...

  14. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  15. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  16. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  17. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process...... laying the foundation with different case examples ranging from road, rail to air transport projects. Two major concerns in building the assessment model, CBA-DK, are to bring informed decision support to the decision-makers and to specify relevant probability distribution functions to feed into the...... Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific...

  18. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  19. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-01-01

    The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find sol...

  20. Data visualisation and statistical analysis within the decision making process

    Mahoney, Jamie

    2013-01-01

    Large amounts of data are collected and stored within universities, but little is done to reuse this data to support decision making processes. This paper discusses the use of data visualisation and statistical analysis as methods of making sense of the collected data, analysing it to assess the effects of historical institutional decisions and discusses the use of such techniques to aid decision making processes.

  1. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6) the economic framework. Our modeling framework began with the identification of factors that influence spatial and temporal changes in riparian vegetation on the two rivers. The linked modeling framework was then employed for making spatial predictions of the changes in presence of surface water, vegetation change, and avian populations in both river systems. An overview of the overall project will be provided, with lessons learned, and initial valuation survey results.

  2. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical. PMID:19210787

  3. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical.

  4. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    Ayoola

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria. Farming experience was significant at one percent; labor and capital were significant at five percent; while age of farmer, level of literacy and farm size were not significant. It was concluded that those policies that targeted increasing a coffee farmer’s access to technical skills, capital, labor and market information would help to facilitate improved management of a coffee farm leading to increased output and income without necessarily increasing farm size.

  5. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  6. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  7. Environmental and economic assessment methods for waste management decision-support: possibilities and limitations.

    Finnveden, Göran; Björklund, Anna; Moberg, Asa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2007-06-01

    A large number of methods and approaches that can be used for supporting waste management decisions at different levels in society have been developed. In this paper an overview of methods is provided and preliminary guidelines for the choice of methods are presented. The methods introduced include: Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Life-cycle Costing, Risk Assessment, Material Flow Accounting, Substance Flow Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Entropy Analysis, Environmental Management Systems, and Environmental Auditing. The characteristics used are the types of impacts included, the objects under study and whether the method is procedural or analytical. The different methods can be described as systems analysis methods. Waste management systems thinking is receiving increasing attention. This is, for example, evidenced by the suggested thematic strategy on waste by the European Commission where life-cycle analysis and life-cycle thinking get prominent positions. Indeed, life-cycle analyses have been shown to provide policy-relevant and consistent results. However, it is also clear that the studies will always be open to criticism since they are simplifications of reality and include uncertainties. This is something all systems analysis methods have in common. Assumptions can be challenged and it may be difficult to generalize from case studies to policies. This suggests that if decisions are going to be made, they are likely to be made on a less than perfect basis. PMID:17612327

  8. Socio-economic Value Analysis in Geospatial and Earth Observation: A methodology review (Invited)

    Coote, A. M.; Bernknopf, R.; Smart, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many industries have long since realised that applying macro-economic analysis methodologies to assess the socio-economic value of a programme is a critical step to convincing decision makers to authorise investment. The geospatial and earth observation industry has however been slow to embrace economic analysis. There are however a growing number of studies, published in the last few years, that have applied economic principles to this domain. They have adopted a variety of different approaches, including: - Computable General Equilibrium Modelling (CGE) - Revealed preference, stated preference (Willingness to Pay surveys) - Partial Analysis - Simulations - Cost-benefit analysis (with and without risk analysis) This paper will critically review these approaches and assess their applicability to different situations and to meet multiple objectives.

  9. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  10. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.

  11. Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy

    Patrizia Berto

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

  12. Nuclear and non-nuclear electricity: decision-making for optimal economic performance

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power system planning - the planning cycle (load-forecasting period; uncertainty; probability and sensitivity analysis in planning); power system reliability; power system economics -alternative technologies (plant mix - nuclear power plants, fossil-fuel power plants; the 'net effective cost' method; electricity systems in developing countries); typical optimization generation computer program. (U.K.)

  13. Comparing the sustainability of U.S. electricity options through multi-criteria decision analysis

    Sustainable energy decision-making requires comparing energy options across a wide range of economic, environmental, social and technical implications. However, such comparisons based on quantitative data are currently limited at the national level. This is the first comparison of 13 currently operational renewable and non-renewable options for new US electricity generation using multi-criteria decision analysis with quantitative input values (minimum, nominal, and maximum) for 8 sustainability criteria (levelized cost of energy, life cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions, land and water use, accident-related fatalities, jobs, and annual capacity factor) and 10 representative decision-maker preference scenarios. Results across several preference scenarios indicate that biopower and geothermal (flash and binary) currently score highest in sustainability for the US. Other renewable energy technologies generally offer substantial sustainability improvements over fossil fuel or nuclear technologies, and nuclear is preferable to fossil fuels in most scenarios. The relatively low ranking of natural gas combined cycle in most preference scenarios should encourage caution in adopting NGCC as a “bridge” to renewables. Although NGCC ranks high under economic and technical preference scenarios, renewables actually rank higher in both scenarios (hydro – economic; geothermal and biopower – technical). - Highlights: ‱ Compares 13 electricity options across 8 sustainability criteria. ‱ Considers technical, economic, environmental, and social sustainability criteria. ‱ Examines tradeoffs under 10 representative decision-maker preferences. ‱ Includes policy implications for developing new electricity generation capacity in the US. ‱ Biopower and geothermal consistently rank high across several preference scenarios

  14. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  15. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  16. Technical/economical analysis of bioenergy systems

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: (1) To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels; (2) To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on technoeconomic basis to establish future development needs, and (3) To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned. (orig.)

  17. Evolutionary and Institutional Economic Analysis of the Scarcity Concept in Modern Economics

    Plamen Tchipev

    2006-01-01

    This is an attempt to rationalise a fundamental category of modern neoclassical economics from a critical point of view using the tools of the modern institutional and evolutionary economic analysis. The scarcity concept of economic goods has been critically analysed in an evolutionary and biological context, as well as in general social and specific market context. A possible answer regarding its specific presence in the neoclassical economics has been suggested, as well as with regard to th...

  18. Economics of the Firm and Economic Growth. An hybrid theoretical framework of analysis

    Sandra Tavares Silva; Aurora Amelia Castro Teixeira; MĂĄrio Rui Silva

    2004-01-01

    The characterization of individual firms is an essential step toward the study of the behaviour of industries and other more aggregated units of economics, and so to the analysis of economic growth processes. Hence, the main goal of this study is to achieve a critical discussion around the conceptualisation of the firm and its role in the dynamical process of economic growth. The approach to the main topic starts with the construction of a theoretical matrix of the economics of the firm, open...

  19. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

  20. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  1. A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions

    Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods.A sys...

  2. A Multidisciplinary-economic Framework of Analysis

    P.K. Keizer

    2015-01-01

    Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination does human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities to satisfy them closely interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical...

  3. Home behavioral economics: Childcare decisions in the United States and Norway.

    Wilson, Katharine F; Hantula, Donald A

    2016-06-01

    This research investigated how a couple decides which parent stays home as a childcare provider by attempting to determine the economic value on maternal care versus paternal care while examining the potential effects of nationality, gender role attitudes, and social support. We collected data from 240 American participants and 250 Norwegian participants who were asked to decide how much a mother needs to earn to allow her husband to stay at home to provide childcare and how much a father needs to earn to allow his wife to stay at home and provide childcare, in addition to items assessing gender role attitudes. No effect of social support was found, but Norwegians were slightly more likely than Americans to place a heavier earning burden on the husband. There were few differences in gender role attitudes by nationality. The impact of public policy and social desirability on the results and childcare decision making are discussed. PMID:26991664

  4. Applying Economic Principles to Outcomes Analysis

    Shauver, Melissa J.; Kevin C Chung

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. The types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized.

  5. Behavioral Issues in Portfolio Decision Analysis

    Masia Semmel, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we address the question of how people make decisions in the context of a knapsack problem, which is a simplified version of a portfolio project management problem. We expect people to be influenced by the biases described in the first chapters and therefore we carry out an experiment to test the reach of this effect. More specifically, our aim is to study to which degree people reach suboptimal solutions in the knapsack problem on different situations of difficulty and size of t...

  6. Antitrust and Copyright Collectives – an Economic Analysis

    Zablocka, Adrianna

    2008-01-01

    The activity of the copyright collecting societies had been scrutinized by many antitrust authorities. The paper presents the decision taken by the President of the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK), which deals with abusing practices of Polish copyright collective society – ZAiKS. The paper concentrates on the economic aspects of the decision from the President of UOKiK.

  7. Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails. PMID:26102185

  8. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  9. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

  10. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis -- The Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) generated this dataset...

  11. Modelling knowledge creation, investment decisions and economic growth in a spatial CGE setting

    Francesco Di Comite

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of knowledge is commonly understood as a key driver of economic growth. Yet, while knowledge production and economic growth have been extensively studied in isolation, few studies have tried to formalise the mechanism connecting the two elements from a spatial general equilibrium perspective. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a model of knowledge creation building upon the multiregional spatial CGE model RHOMOLO to allow for endogenous knowledge production and investment decisions at the regional level. The innovation process is modelled through the interaction between researchers, investors and final good producers. Specifically, researchers in each region use their human capital together with local R&D-embedded capital and intermediates to produce ideas, enhanced by knowledge spillovers crossing regional borders. These ideas are then purchased by local investors and combined with their human capital and intermediate goods to be turned into new R&D-embedded capital, which adds up to the existing stock after having replaced the obsolete one. Lastly, after having paid a fixed entry cost, in each region firms produce goods for final and intermediate consumption by renting local R&D-embedded and human capital and combining it with an interregional bundle of intermediate goods, their productivity being enhanced by the availability of local public goods and services. The model is designed to be calibrated using a regionalised version of standard Social Accounting Matrices, such as the ones provided by the World Input Output Database.

  12. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    Highlights: â–ș We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. â–ș We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. â–ș Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. â–ș Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. â–ș Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  13. Essays on the economic analysis of oil-tanker transportation

    Khanti-Akom, S.

    1991-01-01

    Three models concerning the economic analysis of the oil tanker market are considered. The first model studies the behavior of a risk-neutral tanker owner under a stochastic framework. A dynamic linear rational expectations model is used to explore the tanker owners decisions regarding his tanker fleet in response to freight rate changes. The model assumes that the tanker owner operates in a competitive tanker market, in the sense that the stochastic freight rates are exogenously given in the model. The second model investigates the economic performance of oil tanker operations. The productivity growth of the tanker industry is explored. A general index of technical change developed by Baltagi and Griffin (1988) is used to examine the rate of technical change of the US flag tankers from 1978 to 1984. The third model compares econometric techniques using panel data to estimate a system of the multivariate translog model. Specification tests are performed, and they favor the random-effect model over the fixed-effect model.

  14. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis.

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-10-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gender, age, years of education, and years driving. The groups were compared on the extent to which they discounted, or devalued, delayed hypothetical monetary rewards using a delay-discounting task. In this task, students made repeated choices between $1000 available after a delay (ranging from 1 week to 10 years) and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the students who frequently text while driving discounted delayed rewards at a greater rate than the matched control students. The study supports the conclusions that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice made by drivers, and that a behavioral economic approach may be a useful research tool for investigating the decision-making processes underlying risky behaviors. PMID:26280804

  15. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Daniela Cristina Solomon; Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-01-01

    Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that ...

  16. Factors determining the location decisions of Spanish MNEs: an analysis based on the investment development path

    Jose I Galan; Javier Gonzalez-Benito; Jose A Zuñiga-Vincente

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of theoretical assumptions approached via the investment development path (IDP), this study examines the most important factors for and against the location decisions in foreign direct investment taken by multinational enterprises, considering host countries at very different stages of economic development (Latin American and European Union countries). We carry out different kinds of analysis on a sample of 103 firms belonging to a medium-sized country that has recently achieved ...

  17. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  18. Analysis of the Post-Crisis Economic Performances in the European Union

    Madalina Ecaterina Popescu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The effects of the economic crisis continue to impact the world economy even if the most difficult period of the crisis seems to have passed. In this context, the analysis of the economic performance becomes stringent in that it not only allows for the identification of the economic environment, but also due to the fact that it brings value by determining the automated correction of any decision or direction in the difficult economic context of today. The paper represents a study of some of the main macroeconomic performance indicators for the European Union countries, such as: economic growth, current account balance, labour productivity, employment and average net earnings. Based on a cluster analysis we identified the position of each E.U. member state via an economic performance view and a country level particularization was then achieved. After grouping the countries into two clusters based on their economic performances, we built two distinct equations using panel data models that could explain the economic growth variations for both the case of highly performing and less performing E.U. countries. The results of the analysis actually incorporate some main components that will help formulate economic growth measures, employment and labour productivity.

  19. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

    2009-01-01

    In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incompl...

  20. Supreme Court Justices’ Economic Behaviour: A Multilevel Model Analysis

    Skiple, Jon KÄre; Grendstad, Gunnar; Shaffer, William R. ; Waltenburg, Eric N.

    2015-01-01

    Supreme Court justices are overlooked, but important, national policy-making players who render final and consequential decisions in cases on economic conflicts. The research question asks what forces explain the decisional behaviour of Supreme Court justices in economic rights cases between a private and a public party. Theoretically, the decisional behaviour of an individual justice is a function of his or her notion as to what makes ‘good’ law, pursued in a cultural-collegial setting that ...

  1. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  2. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  3. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  4. Modeling the Economics of Beach Nourishment Decisions in Response to Coastal Erosion

    Ware, M.; Ashton, A. D.; Hoagland, P.; Jin, D.; Kite-Powell, H.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

    2012-12-01

    Beaches are constantly moving and changing. The dynamic transformations of beaches are mostly the result of the erosion of sand, which can occur through movements alongshore caused by waves, movements off-shore due to storms, or submersion due to sea-level rise. Predicted climate change impacts include potential changes in storminess and accelerated sea-level rise, which will lead to increased coastal erosion. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal communities is increasing. The risks from eroding beaches (increased coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and displaced residents) are therefore increasing in number and scale; and coastal residents are taking actions to protect their homes. One such action is beach nourishment, where sand is added to a resident's property in order to widen the beach. We have developed an economic model of beach nourishment decision-making to investigate the relationship between the optimal volume and timing of beach nourishment and factors such as property value, erosion rate, and initial beach width. In this model, waterfront property owners nourish a beach when the losses in net rental income exceed the costs incurred from nourishing the beach. (Rental income is a function of property value, which in turn depends upon the width of the beach.) It is assumed that erosion and sea-level rise are related. We examine different nourishment scenarios, including one-time nourishment in the first year; constant annual nourishment; and a myopic decision process in which the homeowner nourishes the beach if property losses from erosion over the next five years are expected to exceed the cost of nourishment. One-time nourishment delays property flooding for both constant and accelerating sea level rise; however, this delay is more substantial under constant sea level rise. With continual nourishment, the beach can be maintained under constant sea-level rise, provided that the erosion rate is comparable to the additional width from nourishment each year. In contrast, for practical nourishment volumes, erosion from accelerating sea-level rise eventually out-competes beach nourishment and inundation occurs. Under the myopic decision-making model, with both constant and accelerating sea-level rise, nourishment does not take place until a property is critically endangered. The beach slope, nourishment volume, property value, and initial beach width all are found to be important factors in determining when nourishment should start and how frequently it should occur thereafter. These models can be used by policy-makers to formulate better coastal management policies, by coastal geologists to understand human impacts on beach dynamics, and by the insurance industry to realistically anticipate human risk-taking and decision-making.

  5. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  6. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  7. Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd Stocks

    FryĆĄ, Filip

    2013-01-01

    The bachelor thesis “Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Stocks” focuses on fundamental economic analysis and its application on selected Korean company Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. The thesis is divided into two main parts, literature review and practical part. The literature review consists of principles and methods of developing the theory of fundamental economic analysis. The practical part consists of practical application of the theoretical part on the company Samsung El...

  8. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis


  9. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  10. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Volodymyr KHARCHENKO; Shmelova, Tetyana; Sikirda, Yuliya

    2011-01-01

    Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-makin...

  11. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Hosseini SA; Meimandipour A; Lotfollahian H; Aghashahi AR

    2014-01-01

    With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among t...

  12. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    Yang Dong-Hong; Wang Jing-Si

    2013-01-01

    In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum ent...

  13. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  14. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine.

  15. Welfare Triangles and Economic Policy Analysis.

    James, Stephen

    1989-01-01

    Shows how the concepts of consumer's surplus and producer's surplus can be related to basic welfare economics. Provides illustrations of the ways in which these concepts can be applied in introductory economics courses. Examines the social cost of monopoly, the tax burden, free trade, tariffs, and the English Channel Tunnel. (KO)

  16. THE SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES THROUGH THE REFLECTION OF VALUE INDICATORS

    Căruntu Constantin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The central objective of the article concerned showing in a synthetic manner the main economic-financial indicators in which are reflected the value indicators that characterize the activity of production and marketing. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making it appeal to more deterministic models to analyze the relationship between various indicators characterizing value production and marketing activities. Information obtained and circulated in connection with the exercise of the company's financial function takes the form of indicators, they have become an indispensable business tool for financial and performance of the decision making microeconomic default. Therefore in designing and conducting the financial microeconomic process a special emphasis is placed precisely on the indicator system, built and used for this purpose, as well as practical ways to use them, particularly targeting the control of the process. The purpose of this article is to present the main economic indicators and financial indicators in which are reflected value indicators that characterize the production and marketing activities. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators, will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making an appeal to more deterministic models, to the analysis of the relationship between various value indicators characterizing production and marketing activities. The importance of this article is that it shows how the reflection of value indicators in the economic - financial performances of the company, from which we obtain information essential to economic and financial analysis and diagnosis. In this article we have studied many indicators involved not only in the company's financial activity, but also in its economic activity that ultimately is reflected in the positive or negative results of the company. The results of such analysis can be used to substantiate economic and financial decision making and business management company.

  17. Thermo-economic and thermodynamic analysis and optimization of a two-stage irreversible heat pump

    Highlights: ‱ Thermodynamic modeling of a two-stage irreversible heat pump is performed. ‱ The latter is achieved using NSGA algorithm and thermodynamic analysis. ‱ 3 answers given by the decision-making methods selected. - Abstract: This research study mainly deals with a comprehensive thermodynamic modeling and thermo-economic optimization of an irreversible absorption heat pump. For the optimization goal, various objective functions are considered comprising the specific heating load, coefficient of performance (COP) and the thermo-economic benchmark (F). In order to specify the optimum design variables, non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied satisfying some restrictions. In this optimization study, all three objective functions (e.g. COP, F and specific heating load) are maximized. In addition, decision making is carried out using three well-suited approaches namely LINAMP and TOPSIS and FUZZY. Finally, sensitivity analysis and error analysis are conducted in order to improve understanding of the system performance

  18. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

    Jit Mark

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1 Is an economic analysis needed? 2 Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3 If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4 If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5 How complex should the analysis be? 6 How should uncertainty be captured? 7 How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  19. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  20. NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical field are developed by the author of this article in the 1980s during the creation of the All-Union Statistical Association. The new paradigm is compared with the old (corresponding to the middle of XX century. Is summarized monographs, textbooks and manuals prepared under the leadership of the author of this paper in the XXI century according to the new paradigm

  1. USE OF DATA WAREHOUSING IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: ISSUES & CHALLENGES

    V. S. Adigal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A data warehouses provides us generalized and consolidated data in multidimensional view, a data warehouses also provides us Online Analytical Processing (OLAP tools. One of the best advantages of using a data warehouse is that users are able to access a large amount of information. This information can be used to solve a large number of problems, and it can also be used to increase the profits of a company. Not only users are able to have access to a large amount of information. A data warehouse helps business executives to organize, analyze, and use historical data for decision making. A data warehouse serves as a solitary part of a plan-execute-assess "closed-loop" feedback system for the organizational management. Data warehouses are high maintenance systems. Any reorganization• of the business processes and the source systems may affect the data warehouse and it results in high maintenance cost. Thus, data warehouse has now become an important platform for data analysis and online analytical processing. The present study focuses on the issues and challenges involved in data warehousing for economic analysis and try to put forth the various roadmap to face the various issues. There is no unique method for forecasting the sale of any commodity. The forecaster may try one or the other method depending upon his objective, data availability, the urgency with which forecasts are needed, resources he intends to devote to this work and type of commodity whose demand he wants to forecast.

  2. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    MĂŒhlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA. PMID:26519081

  3. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. PMID:23869557

  4. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  5. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26436538

  6. An economic and ethical analysis of the Katrina disaster

    Robert W. McGee

    2008-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to apply economic and ethical analysis to natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina to determine which approaches to disaster relief work best and which should be abandoned. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides a combination of narrative with argument and analysis. Findings – Government involvement in disaster relief has proven to be economically inefficient and also rights-violating. Private sector initiatives and economic and political f...

  7. Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

    Alptekin, Aynur; Levine, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Meta analysis is conducted to review 32 empirical studies with 169 estimates to find the combined overall effect of military expenditure on economic growth. Using a meta fixed and random effects and regression analysis, our results show that there exists a "genuine" net effect of military expenditure on economic growth. The net combined effect is positive, and the magnitude is very small. The main sources of study-to-study variation in the findings of military expenditure and economic growth ...

  8. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

    Fuad M. Kreishan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun’s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun’s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between unemployment rate and economic growth. Results: The empirical results reveal that Okun’s law cannot be confirmed for Jordan. Thus, it can be suggested that the lack of economic growth does not explain the unemployment problem in Jordan. Conclusion: The study recommended that economic policies related to demand management would not have an important effect in reducing unemployment rate. Accordingly implementation of economic policies oriented to structural change and reform in the labor market would be more appropriate by policy makers in Jordan.

  9. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  10. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C; King, H; Markanya, A; Mottram, R; Roberts, P; Salvito, D

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  11. Dimensional Analysis of Production and Utility Functions in Economics

    Kim, Minseong

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores dimensional analysis of production and utility functions in economics. As raised by Barnett, dimensional analysis is important in consistency checks of economics functions. However, unlike Barnett's dismissal of CES and Cobb-Douglas production functions, we will demonstrate that under constant return-to-scale and other assumptions, production function can indeed be justified dimensionally. And then we consider utility functions.

  12. ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

    Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

  13. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  14. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  15. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  16. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  17. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  18. Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review

    The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

  19. Economic analysis of residential solar water heaters

    None

    1980-09-23

    A typical residential solar water heater, and typical cost and performance information are described briefly. The monthly costs and savings of the typical system are discussed. Economic evaluations of solar water heaters are presented in increasingly complex levels of detail. Utilizing a typical system, the effective interest rate that the purchaser of a system would receive on money invested is shown for all regions of the country. The importance of numerous variables that can make a significant difference on the economics of the system is described. Methods for calculating the Payback Period for any non-typical solar water heater are described. This calculated Payback Period is then shown to be related to the effective interest rate that the puchaser of the system would receive for a typical set of economic conditions. A method is presented to calculate the effective interest rate that the solar system would provide. (MHR)

  20. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  1. Economic analysis of decentralized energy systems

    Kennedy, A. S.; Sewell, I. O.; Lee, C.

    1978-01-01

    Economic viability is a necessary condition for the implementation of an energy-conserving ICES concept. This criterion is inextricably linked to: (1) the costs of installing, operating, and maintaining competitive systems; (2) the costs of energy systems to the individual building owners and occupants in the community; (3) the amount, type, and relative prices of fuels and electric rates; and (4) the access of ICES owners to capital markets. This paper discusses procedures whereby ICES concepts can be economically evaluated and consistently compared.

  2. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

  3. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to forego reusing recoverable nuclear fuel, and thus reprocessing, in the long run

  4. Analysis of the Decision Making in the Personnel Selection Process

    NavrĂĄtil, Marek; KlimusovĂĄ, Helena

    LanĆĄkroun : GOSC Group, s.r.o., 2001. s. 249. [The Tenth European Congress on Work and Organizational Psychology . 16.05.2001-19.05.2001, Praha] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7025918 Keywords : Personnel Selection Process * Judgement Analysis * Decision-making process Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  5. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  6. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  7. Economic analysis of nuclear plant life extension

    Many nuclear plants in the United States will reach their licensed plant lifetime (40 yr) in the next decade, a decision on whether to refurbish the existing plants or replace them will be necessary. Such decisions typically need to be made at least 10 yr prior to the nuclear plant license's expiration to allow time to plan for the potential replacement capacity. This paper reports on a study comparing the cost of extending the life of an existing nuclear plant to the cost of either a new coal-fired power plant or a new gas-fired combined-cycle plant. Pertinent input parameters and assumptions used in this paper are presented in a table. An overall net benefit for nuclear plant life extension (NUPLEX) is indicated

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the role of nuclear power generation under the circumstances of growing concerns about environmental impact and to help decision making in electricity sector. In this study, efforts are made to estimate electricity power generation cost of major power options by incorporating additional cost to reduce environmental impact and to suggest an optimal plant mix in this case. (Author)

  9. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  10. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,


  11. Economic analysis of animal disease outbreaks--BSE and Bluetongue disease as examples.

    Gethmann, Jörn; Probst, Carolina; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Conraths, Franz Josef

    2015-01-01

    Although there is a long tradition of research on animal disease control, economic evaluation of control measures is rather limited in veterinary medicine. This may, on the one hand, be due to the different types of costs and refunds and the different people and organizations bearing them, such as animal holders, county, region, state or European Union, but it may also be due to the fact that economic analyses are both complex and time consuming. Only recently attention has turned towards economic analysis in animal disease control. Examples include situations, when decisions between different control measures must be taken, especially if alternatives to culling or compulsory vaccination are under discussion. To determine an optimal combination of control measures (strategy), a cost-benefit analysis should be performed. It is not necessary to take decisions only based on the financial impact, but it becomes possible to take economic aspects into account. To this end, the costs caused by the animal disease and the adopted control measures must be assessed. This article presents a brief overview of the methodological approaches used to retrospectively analyse the economic impact of two particular relevant diseases in Germany in the last few years: Blue-tongue disease (BT) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). PMID:26697715

  12. Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks

    Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

  13. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  14. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  15. Measuring economic journals’ citation efficiency: A data envelopment analysis approach

    George HALKOS; Tzeremes, Nickolaos

    2011-01-01

    This paper by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and statistical inference evaluates the citation performance of 229 economic journals. The paper categorizes the journals into four main categories (A to D) based on their efficiency levels. The results are then compared to the 27 “core economic journals” as introduced by Dimond (1989). The results reveal that after more than twenty years Diamonds’ list of “core economic journals” is still valid. Finally, for the first time the paper uses da...

  16. A Economic Analysis of the Akkar Plain Project

    Chard, E. Douglas

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility of the Akkar Plain Agricultural Development Project. Data were collected at representative villages throughout the Akkar Plain in Syria. The data were used to establish the economic setting at the present time on the Akkar Plain and to establish a basis for determining the economic justification for the future planned developments. Methodology used was a farm budget analysis of a before development and after development situat...

  17. Economic impact analysis for the petroleum refineries NESHAP. Final report

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    An economic analysis of the industries affected by the Petroleum Refineries National Emmissions Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) was completed in support of this standard. The industry for which economic impacts was computed was the petroleum refinery industry. Affected refineries must reduce HAP emissions by the level of control required in the standard. Several types of economic impacts, among them price product changes, output changes, job impacts, and effects on foriegn trade, were computed for the selected regulatory alternative.

  18. Integrating Economics into Water Resources Systems Analysis

    Howitt, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need to integrate economic and hydro-engineering models has been long recognized and is the subject of several articles and literature surveys. However difficulties of obtaining sufficient precision of economic data to span the significant differences in both spatial and temporal scales presents challenges, and opportunities for the use of new technologies. Most hydrologic models run on a daily time step, or at a minimum, monthly, whereas many economic models, particularly of agriculture, are estimated on an annual time step. The asymmetry in difficulty of downscaling versus aggregating is briefly reviewed, and an example of down-scaling irrigation water value functions to a monthly time step, using information from crop water use models is presented. Similarly, the spatial cell resolution of hydro-engineering models is usually much finer than economic models, which are usually aggregated at the level that prices or production quantities are reported. A method of downscaling regional measures of crop production and water use to the field level using the additional information from remote sensing measurements is demonstrated in the context of agricultural production in California's central valley. A problem that arises is that for spatial crop production the available data from Landsat measurements processed by NAAS in pixel form is very noisy when overlaid onto a field level boundary GIS layer. For complex cropping systems such as those found in California, it is not uncommon to have three different categories of pixel identification in the same field. The approach discussed uses a cross-entropy approach and additional data from locally measured sources, to estimate the most likely uniform crop in any given field. In addition, constraints on the combination of different sized fields and the total regional acreage measured by local county commissioners provides additional information and structure on the estimates. Initial results show significant noise in the estimates, but given the consistency of the sampling method and relative stability of crop types grown in a given region, this seems a natural application for improved estimates from sequential filtering. Over time with improved ground-truthing, we can expect steadily improving precision of field level crop estimates. Using these approaches, economic analysts can construct models of water value functions that are able to be empirically estimated on spatial and temporal scales that are compatible with hydro-economic models.

  19. Democracy Deficits, Inequality and Pollution. A Politico-Economic Analysis

    Drosdowski, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The article examines conditions, under which the degree of democratization influences environmental policy outcomes, with a given resource endowments' heterogeneity as a crucial feature of a politico-economic process. We develop an OLG model with pollution as an aggregate externality. The decisive voter, whose income can differ from the median one, chooses redistribution to finance abatement. By comparing the optimal taxation under alternative political regimes we analyze their implications f...

  20. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    P. Gnip

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  1. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  2. Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications

    The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

  3. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term Êsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  4. Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes

    As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

  5. Islamic Economics Literature: A Bibliometric Analysis

    Sajjad ur Rehman; Roslina Othman

    1994-01-01

    The study tested the hypothesis that Islamic economics literature exhibits the features of the Bradfordian Law of Scattering while identifying core authors, publishers, sources of literature, and countries of origin. A database of 3,026 citations was created with information about the four primary measures. The occurrence counts were tabulated and displayed in bibliographs as essential instruments for hypothesis testing. It was found that the hypothesis could not be supported as the immature ...

  6. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  7. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  8. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Yerace, P. [Dept. of Energy, Fernald, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management; Flora, J. [West Valley Demonstration Project, NY (United States); Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D. [Environmental Management Solutions, Mason, OH (United States)

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  9. An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy

    S. Chinnammai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

  10. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  11. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    This study gives special emphasis on the forecast of maximum power. As long as stable supply of power is concerned, maximum power plays more important role than electricity demand itself. Several methods for the forecast of maximum power are analyzed and tested. A model entitled Uri model is selected and as a result maximum power forecast is performed until the year 2005 using this model. It is also endeavored to build elaborated and consistent series of data on the O and M cost of power plant that is necessary for the decision of optimal plant mix. Finally, electric system expansion planning is performed through WASP using data built above. (author)

  12. Integrated Modeling for Decision Analysis and Support in Phoenix (Invited)

    Gober, P.

    2010-12-01

    We built and implemented WaterSim, a simulation model, to investigate how alternative climate conditions, rates of population growth, and policy choices interact to affect future water supply and demand conditions in Phoenix, Arizona USA. This paper: (1) outlines the objectives and structure of WaterSim; (2) demonstrates the application of the model through a series of simulation experiments; (3) shows how the model is used for decision analysis, scenario planning, and climate adaptation; and (4) delineates the difficult choices that lie ahead for water decision makers in Phoenix. Simulation results show that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Climate adaptation requires decision makers to manage the long-term risk of climate change and balance cricial tradeoffs, using tools such as WaterSim to explore the consequences of potential policy decisions. Figure 1: WaterSim in Decision Theater Photo Credit: Dustin Hampton Figure 2. WaterSim results

  13. Economic Impact Analysis of Kecamatan Development Program Infrastructure Projects

    Torrens, Anthony

    2005-01-01

    The Government of Indonesia and the World Bank commissioned this independent study to conduct a post-construction economic impact analysis on 113 Kecamatan Development Program (KDP) rural infrastructure projects to determine the overall economic benefits that have accrued to the villages that planned and built infrastructure facilities according to the KDP Community Driven Development appr...

  14. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  15. Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of salicylic acid and cryotherapy for cutaneous warts: an economic decision model

    Thomas, K S; Keogh-Brown, M.R.; CHalmers, J.R.; Fordham, R. J.; Holland, R.C.; Armstrong, S. J.; M.O. Bachmann; Howe, A.H.; Rodgers, S.; Avery, A J; Harvey, I; Williams, H.C.

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate the costs of commonly used treatments for cutaneous warts, as well as their health benefits and risk. To create an economic decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these treatments, and, as a result, assess whether a randomised controlled trial (RCT) would be feasible and cost-effective. Data sources: Focus groups, structured interviews and observation of practice. Postal survey sent to 723 patients. A recently updated Cochrane syst...

  16. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  17. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  18. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  19. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to examine the impact of uncertainties. Finally, the need for further analysis, data collection, or refinement is determined. The first steps of defining the problem and the objectives are critical to constructing an informative decision analysis. Such steps must be undertaken with participation from experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders (defined here as "decision participants"). The basic problem here can be framed as: “What is the best strategy to manage risk associated with NEOs?” Some high-level objectives might be to minimize: mortality and injuries, damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power, communications and food distribution), ecosystem damage, property damage, ungrounded media and public speculation, resources expended, and overall cost. Another valuable objective would be to maximize inter-agency/government coordination. Some of these objectives (e.g., “minimize mortality”) are readily quantified (e.g., deaths and injuries averted). Others are less so (e.g., “maximize inter-agency/government coordination”), but these can be scaled. Objectives may be inversely related: e.g., a strategy that minimizes mortality may cost more. They are also unlikely to be weighted equally. Defining objectives and assessing their relative weight and interactions requires early engagement with decision participants. High-level decisions include whether to deflect a NEO, when to deflect, what is the best alternative for deflection/destruction, and disaster management strategies if an impact occurs. Important influences include, for example: NEO characteristics (orbital characteristics, diameter, mass, spin and composition), impact probability and location, interval between discovery and projected impact date, interval between discovery and deflection target date, costs of information collection, costs and technological feasibility of deflection alternatives, risks of deflection campaigns, requirements for inter-agency and international cooperation, and timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

  20. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  1. Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland

    Antonios Adamopoulos

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

  2. An Empirical Analysis of the Home Economics Research Journal.

    Goldsmith, Elizabeth B.

    1983-01-01

    Research was undertaken to determine the nature and scope of the Home Economics Research Journal through an analysis of information provided in articles about the authors, funding sources, topics, and citations. (Author)

  3. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  4. MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    VENUGOPAL .B. S

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

  5. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  6. Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis

    Ihsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

  7. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; DomĂ­nguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  8. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature

    Marius-Corneliu MARINAƞ

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

  9. MARC21 y conceptos de economĂ­a en las decisiones bibliotecarias: MARC21 and economic concepts in the library-related decisions

    Luis A. Herrera

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available En el contexto profesional bibliotecolĂłgico de la catalogaciĂłn moderna, y utilizando MARC21 en el marco internacional y la historia de los formatos, en Argentina como casos de estudio, se propone una metodologĂ­a basada en la teorĂ­a de costo de oportunidad, extraĂ­da del campo de la economĂ­a, como elemento a considerar para la toma de decisiones.In the Library Science professional context of modern cataloging and studying MARC21 in the international framework on one hand, and the history of formats in Argentina on the other hand, it is suggested a methodology based on the opportunity cost theory, from the economic field, as an element to be considered for decision making.

  10. A multi-attribute decision analysis for decommissioning offshore oil and gas platforms.

    Henrion, Max; Bernstein, Brock; Swamy, Surya

    2015-10-01

    The 27 oil and gas platforms off the coast of southern California are reaching the end of their economic lives. Because their decommissioning involves large costs and potential environmental impacts, this became an issue of public controversy. As part of a larger policy analysis conducted for the State of California, we implemented a decision analysis as a software tool (PLATFORM) to clarify and evaluate decision strategies against a comprehensive set of objectives. Key options selected for in-depth analysis are complete platform removal and partial removal to 85 feet below the water line, with the remaining structure converted in place to an artificial reef to preserve the rich ecosystems supported by the platform's support structure. PLATFORM was instrumental in structuring and performing key analyses of the impacts of each option (e.g., on costs, fishery production, air emissions) and dramatically improved the team's productivity. Sensitivity analysis found that disagreement about preferences, especially about the relative importance of strict compliance with lease agreements, has much greater effects on the preferred option than does uncertainty about specific outcomes, such as decommissioning costs. It found a near-consensus of stakeholders in support of partial removal and "rigs-to-reefs" program. The project's results played a role in the decision to pass legislation enabling an expanded California "rigs-to-reefs" program that includes a mechanism for sharing cost savings between operators and the state. PMID:26415010

  11. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force. PMID:12265626

  12. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  13. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Waal, A. de; T Ritchey

    2007-01-01

    Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combinin...

  14. Vascular Access Choice in Incident Hemodialysis Patients: A Decision Analysis

    DREW, David A.; Lok, Charmaine E.; Cohen, Joshua T.; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; WEINER, Daniel E.

    2014-01-01

    Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 7...

  15. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  16. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  17. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  18. Local Economic Development : An Accessibility Analysis

    Strömberg, Carl

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of job accessibility on wages and productivity using Swedish municipality level data on night and daytime wages. The empirical analysis is based on annual data for 290 Swedish municipalities over the period 2005-2011. The strength of this paper lies in its empirical method. By using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) in a panel data setting, I find that empirical analysis have to take into account the joint determination ...

  19. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    As CO2 emission is recognized as the one of the major causes of the global worming, international CO2 emission regulation has been of great concern and has been discussed actively on the global level. Several means of CO2 emission regulation have been raised and have received much attention recently. CO2 emission regulation is expected to affect the national economy as well as the national energy policy. Since the electricity sector closely interacts with CO2 emission, environmental regulation has the possibility of implementation in this sector. Considering the enormous role played by electricity in the national economy, it is very important to study the effect of environmental regulation on the electricity sector. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of CO2 emission by analyzing the effect of CO2 emission regulation on the electricity sector in terms of capacity and generation mix. This information can be used effectively in energy policy establishment. In addition, the effect of CO2 emission regulation on economic viability of electricity generating type is also being studied in order to contribute to the establishment of Electric System Expansion Planning in Korea

  1. Introductory regression analysis with computer application for business and economics

    Webster, Allen

    2013-01-01

    Regression analysis is arguably the single most powerful and widely applicable tool in any effective examination of common business issues. Every day, decision-makers face problems that require constructive actions with significant consequences, and regression procedures can prove a meaningful and valuable asset in the decision-making process. This text is designed to help students achieve a full understanding of regression and the many ways it can be used.Taking into consideration current statistical technology, Introductory Regression Analysis focuses on the use and interpretation

  2. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  3. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  4. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  5. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

  6. The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

    Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

    2003-01-01

    A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

  7. Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis

    This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

  8. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  9. Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes

    Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

  10. STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

    Vazakidis Athanasios

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

  11. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  12. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  13. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information System Framework for Hazardous Waste Transport Sustainability

    S. Monprapussorn

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a combination of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Geographic Information System (GIS approaches to the hazardous waste transport problem. There are risks associated with a truck being involved in an accident during shipment of hazardous materials (HAZMAT and/or hazardous wastes. The level of impact posed to surroundings depends on many factors such as population density, No. of sensitive locations, proximity to rescue units and security. It is essential that all of the related factors and criteria involved be considered prior to making decisions about route selection. Certain routing criteria and standards for HAZMAT transport have been developed in many developed countries such as the United States, Canada and European countries with the purpose of risk avoidance during shipment of these materials. However, a lack of a comprehensive framework for the selection of HAZMAT and/or hazardous waste routes that the transporter can use for aiding their decisions is a major concern in most developing countries. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for making optimum hazardous waste transport routing choices by incorporating multiple factors and sub-factors. Factors and sub-factors are divided into three main categories; economic, environmental and societal (exposure and emergency response issues that are in line with the sustainability paradigm. The proposed framework can contribute to the thought processes of governmental policy-makers and carriers when they evaluate possible routes and are making their decision in order to minimize damage from transporting hazardous waste.

  14. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  15. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: â–ș Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. â–ș The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. â–ș When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. â–ș The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  16. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...... opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for...

  17. Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, Tool 3 : Economic Analysis of Tobacco Demand

    Wilkins, Nick; Yurekli, Ayda; Hu, Teh-Wei

    2013-01-01

    The tobacco epidemic is a worldwide phenomenon with significantly destructive effects on developing, transitional, and industrialized nations. The first scientific evidence on the health consequences of tobacco consumption-specifically, smoking-was discovered in industrialized nations. As a result, the economic analysis of tobacco control issues began and was developed in these countries. ...

  18. Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis

    Horacio Alfredo Gil

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued by the avoided cost method. The results of the study establish that GT have better commercial and economic performance than CT, and that the inclusion of environmental benefit significantly improves the results.

  19. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, UniversitĂ  di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  20. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  1. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  2. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  3. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be captured in the valuation model. Finally, the study will compare the probability distributions of development cost and project value and discusses the market penetration potential of the geothermal power generation. There is a recent world wide interest in geothermal utilization projects. There are several reasons for the recent popularity of geothermal energy, including the increasing volatility of fossil fuel prices, need for domestic energy sources, approaching carbon emission limitations and state renewable energy standards, increasing need for baseload units, and new technology to make geothermal energy more attractive for power generation. It is our hope that this study will contribute to the recent progress of geothermal energy by shedding light on the uncertainty of geothermal energy project costs.

  4. Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

    Pombeiro, Filipa de AragĂŁo Figueiredo Barbosa

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analys...

  5. Essays on the Economic Analysis of Tort Law

    Guerra, Alice

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of tort law is one of the most influential and extensively developed applications of the economic approach in the study of law. Notwithstanding the exhaustive number of contributions on tort law and economics, several open questions remain that warrant further investigation. The general aim of this research project is to refine the traditional model of tort law in order to make it more realistic, updated with the recent technological progress and in line with the experimental res...

  6. The Space Tug economic analysis study - What we learned

    Hopkins, C. V.

    1975-01-01

    This paper summarizes the scope, analytical methods, and principal findings of a recently performed Space-Tug economic analysis. Both the Shuttle/Tug transportation system and its unmanned payloads were modeled in this study. A variety of upper-stage concepts capable of fulfilling the Tug mission were evaluated against this model, and the 'best' Tug concepts were identified for a range of economic measures.

  7. On Pigou’s Theory of Economic Policy Analysis

    Aslanbeigui, Nahid; Oakes, Guy

    2015-01-01

    The economics of A.C. Pigou is generally regarded as an ensemble of policies—chiefly ‘Pigouvian’ taxes and subsidies—designed to maximize economic welfare. We contest this view, arguing that Pigou was not a proponent of specific policies but rather a logician of policy analysis. Although he assessed welfare programs of his time, his judgments on policies were invariably prima facie, hedged and qualified by a formidable array of restrictive and contingent variables. Thus there are no definitiv...

  8. Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Johnson, R W; DaVanzo, J

    1998-02-01

    Although the departure of children from the parental home is an important life-cycle event, few studies have investigated nest-leaving in developing countries. Using retrospective data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, we estimate hazard models of nest-leaving in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the departure of children, especially sons, responds to economic incentives, including housing costs, family businesses, education, and economic growth, and that ethnic differences in nest-leaving are important. We also find that the median age of departure from home has declined sharply over the past 40 years, a period of rapid social and economic change in Malaysia. PMID:9512913

  9. Antieigenvalue Analysis, New Applications: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, Number Theory

    Gustafson, Karl

    2015-01-01

    My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory.

  10. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment...

  11. Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    The major contents in this study are as follows : 1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. 2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. 3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs

  13. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  14. Designing economic evaluations to facilitate optimal decisions: the need to avoid bias

    Lee KM; Coyle K; Coyle D

    2016-01-01

    Karen M Lee,1,3 Kathryn Coyle,2 Doug Coyle2,31Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), Ottawa, ON, Canada; 2Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK; 3School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, CanadaGuertin et al1 argue in their article “Bias within economic evaluations” that if researchersfail to incorporate the future availability of generics entrants for new patented drugs, the i...

  15. Agent-based modeling for decision making in economics under uncertainty

    Vermeulen, Ben; Pyka, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Ever since the emergence of economics as a distinct scientific discipline, policy makers have turned to economic models to guide policy interventions. If policy makers seek to enhance growth of an open capitalist economy, they have to take into account, firstly, the uncertainties, inefficiencies, and market failures faced by the agents in the economy, and, secondly, the activities, network structure, and interactions in the innovation and production system. The authors discuss ins-and-outs of...

  16. Modelling knowledge creation, investment decisions and economic growth in a spatial CGE setting

    Francesco Di Comite; Lesley Potters

    2014-01-01

    The expansion of knowledge is commonly understood as a key driver of economic growth. Yet, while knowledge production and economic growth have been extensively studied in isolation, few studies have tried to formalise the mechanism connecting the two elements from a spatial general equilibrium perspective. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a model of knowledge creation building upon the multiregional spatial CGE model RHOMOLO to allow for endogenous knowledge production and investmen...

  17. Career Decisions from the Decider's Perspective

    Amundson, Norman E.; Borgen, William A.; Iaquinta, Maria; Butterfield, Lee D.; Koert, Emily

    2010-01-01

    The authors used a phenomenological research method to investigate the career decision-making experiences of 17 employed adults. Thematic results from interview data analysis were organized within 3 overarching themes: decisions centered on relational life, decisions centered on personal meaning, and decisions centered on economic realities. Study…

  18. Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

    The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

  19. Behavioral Economic Analysis of Cue-elicited Craving for Alcohol

    MacKillop, James; O’Hagen, Sean; Lisman, Stephen A.; Murphy, James G.; Ray, Lara A.; Tidey, Jennifer W.; McGeary, John E.; Monti, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Craving as a motivational determinant of drug use remains controversial because of ambiguous empirical findings. A behavioral economic approach may clarify the nature of craving, theorizing that subjective craving functionally reflects an acute increase in a drug’s value. The current study tested this hypothesis via a multidimensional assessment of alcohol demand over the course of an alcohol cue reactivity procedure. Method Heavy drinkers (n = 92) underwent exposures to neutral (water) cues followed by personalized alcohol cues. Participants were assessed for craving, alcohol demand, affect, and salivation following each exposure. Findings Alcohol versus neutral cues significantly increased craving and multiple behavioral economic measures of the relative value of alcohol, including alcohol consumption under conditions of zero cost (intensity), maximum expenditure on alcohol (Omax), persistence in drinking to higher prices (breakpoint) and proportionate price insensitivity (normalized Pmax). Craving was significantly correlated with demand measures at levels ranging from .21 – .43. Conclusions These findings support the potential utility of a behavioral economic approach to understanding the role of environmental stimuli in alcohol-related decision making. Specifically, they suggest that the behavioral economic indices of demand may provide complementary motivational information that is related to though not entirely redundant with measures of subjective craving. PMID:20626376

  20. Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

    Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

    2012-05-01

    The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on the map; this may suggest a need to strengthen the decision-making processes by engaging these stakeholders more centrally and earlier. PMID:22513730

  1. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  2. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  3. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

  4. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process

  5. Economic Analysis of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives Union

    I. H. Inan

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the management activities of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives’ Union were evaluated and revenues and costs required for economic analysis were calculated and profit and loss income statement was estimated for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. Data for Gross Margin Analysis were supplied from income and loss statement and thus Table comprising gross margins was formed covering all the activities of The Union.Gross Margin Analysis was made in order to determine economic performance of The Union by means of the data obtained from economic results of the operational activities in the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Union should develop its present activities so as to survive in the future. Therefore, suggestions were made for the expansion of the profitable activities and to improve nonprofitable activities in order to make them profitable.

  6. Analysis of Political Decision-Making and Its Influencing Factors

    Xing YAN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Political decision-making means a country’s political parties, leaders or leadership compare and select implementing principles and approaches and means to achieve the target in political practical activities for the purpose, principles and direction of activities. The process of political decision-making is a dynamic political process that is related to the formation and implementation of major and general decisions of the national, political and social interest groups. This process is to integrate major and general decisions regarding national and social interests. The subjects are state organs, political parties and individual decision makers or decision-making participants, and the finally formed decision is backed by the country’s coercive power with mandatory features. Meanwhile, political decision-making is influenced by system pressure. In the decision-making process, there will be a certain degree of bias between the final decision and the targeted decision.

  7. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  8. A binary decision diagram for fault tree analysis

    In this paper, binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm is used for fault tree analysis. The ways of calculating failure probability and minimal cut-set (MCS) for certain fault trees are presented, including conversion from fault tree to BDD structure, obtaining MCS from BDD, MCS storage in terms of zero-suppressed BDD (ZBDD) for space-saving, and calculation of top event unavailability. A program was compiled and validated by calculating a PSA model of certain nuclear power plant both by hand and RiskSpectrum PSA. The comparison results show that the program can qualify and quantify a fault tree of relatively small scale. (authors)

  9. Economic analysis of teleradiology applications with KAMEDIN.

    Walz, M; Bolte, R; Lehmann, K J; Lütgemeier, J; Georgi, M

    1999-01-01

    The teleradiology system KAMEDIN (German Telekom), installed on HP-Unix- and NT-Workstations, was evaluated in different scenarios and a cost-benefit-analysis was performed. CT examinations were transferred from a PACS workstation (GE) to KAMEDIN using DICOM-3 protocol. Teleconferences were realized with an intensive care unit by LAN, with a radiology department at 5 km. distance by ISDN, and with an on duty radiologist 22 km. away by ISDN. On average, 36 CT slices per patient were transferred. Overall costs (costs for hardware, software, support, ISDN-fees, and staff) were compared to possible cost reduction, mainly concerning transportation and films. These three scenarios could be realized during daily routine work. Differing in their amount of transportation cost reduction, two applications (intensive care unit, radiologist on duty) showed a break-even at 1817, respectively 528 teleconferences/year. Improvement of cost-effectiveness can be obtained on the conditions that existing hardware will be used and that the automatic data transfer will be improved. Combining all optimisation factors, the break-even decreased to a minimum of 167, respectively 77 teleconferences/year. The optimisation of patient management is an additional--but in this study, not yet counted--advantage of teleradiology. PMID:10747540

  10. The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis

    Camelia SURUGIU

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.

  11. DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC-ORGANISATIONAL ENTITIES OPERATING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

    IOAN CONSTANTIN DIMA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The complete operating cycle of the organisational economic entity provides a connection between its actions and those actions that take place in the environment where it operates, which are deemed to be natural reactions of the environment to the operation of the organisational economic entity. The way in which the environment reacts to its operation must be understood as being the nature of the relations between events, factors and structures of the environment and not as an answer to what the organisational economic entity does. The same action of the organisational economic entity could therefore determine different environmental reactions to various moments and various actions. This is because organisational economic entities act under the conditions of the restrictions imposed by the environment. There are few cases where these restrictions are not observed and the environment reacts unambiguously. But, most of the time, the operating range is relatively tight, and inside of it only a very low part of it can be assigned to the actions taken by the organisation.

  12. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

  13. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  14. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  15. The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory

    Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is the price to be paid today in order t o preserve a wider flexibility for a future decision? This price can involve the technical costs or constraints, but also the social constraint. In the case of radioactive waste, if the decision maker decides to close definitively the repository of radioactive waste, he gives up the opportunity to open it later and recover the radioactive materials contained in the ultimate waste if new techniques of treatment and recycling are available. By doing so, he abandons an option: Its value must be evaluated in order to assess its opportunity cost in the decision process. From these particular characteristics of the French project of radioactive waste disposal, our research in economics aims to offer some theoretical insights to analyse the relationship between reversibility, and more particularly retrievability, and the significant costs characterising the project. The objective is to show how the real options theory can be used to analyse the issue and evaluate different possible storage processes. The sequentiality of decisions and the existence of various options for a single decision point make economic computation more complex than in a decision framework with simple options. Actually, the reversible storage project involves multiple interacting options that can create future opportunities. The value of an option at a given date may be different depending on the options available at later dates and thus its value must be computed together with other options. This is what we call compound options: They create important interactions in the evaluation of the project

  16. The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth

    Ferdous Alam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

  17. A Hybrid Method Using Factor Analysis and AHP on Passenger Purchase Decisions: The Case of Domestic Airlines in Turkey

    Ozlem Atalik; Emircan Ozdemir

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates factors affecting purchase decisions of domestic airline passengers and their preference priorities. Airline business is substantially dynamic as a service based business. Continuous change in passenger expectations and the increasing number of economic recessions in the world economies are compelling airlines to foresee and to design new services according to the priorities of passengers. In this study, the method uses factor analysis to describe factors affecting pur...

  18. A bio-economic analysis of the hand-line and gillnet coastal fisheries of Pernambuco State, North-Eastern Brazil

    Mattos, Sérgio Macedo Gomes de; MAYNOU Francesc; Franquesa, Ramón

    2006-01-01

    [EN] This paper presents a bio-economic analysis of the hand-line and gillnet coastal fisheries off Pernambuco State, North-Eastern Brazil, in order to define management measures to support the decision-making process available to fisheries managers to reduce uncertainties about the sustainable development of the fisheries. The objective of applying a bio-economic model was to reproduce the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. This was done by carrying out projecti...

  19. Diets and Health: How Food Decisions Are Shaped by Biology, Economics, Geography, and Social Interactions

    Drewnowski, Adam; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Health is shaped by both personal choices and features of the food environment. Food-choice decisions depend on complex interactions between biology and behavior, and are further modulated by the built environment and community structure. That lower-income families have lower-quality diets is well established. Yet, diet quality also varies across small geographic neighborhoods and can be influenced by transportation, retail, and ease of access to healthy foods, as well as by attitude...

  20. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Koesrindartoto, Deddy P.; Erdi Novanto

    2012-01-01

    Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion). There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze ...

  1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress

    Graves, Philip E.

    2011-01-01

    An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation) vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation) importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods w...

  2. Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC) - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics

    Manvinder Singh Pahwa; Amanpreet Singh Chopra

    2013-01-01

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico a...

  3. Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

  4. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  5. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

  7. Social Identity Economics

    Valtonen, Jani

    2014-01-01

    This master's thesis is a literature review on social identity economics. Traditional economic models, in which decisions of a rational agent are analyzed, have been challenged by models and theories where concepts and insights from other sciences such as sociology and psychology are introduced. Identity economics - pioneered by George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton - is a field that brings now the social context in to the economic analysis. In this thesis, I collect together the essential t...

  8. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report

    In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

  9. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the


  10. Economic analysis of low-temperature nuclear district heating

    Economic analysis and comparison between nuclear energy and conventional energy in district heating systems are made. The low temperature heat energy from nuclear fuel produces the great economy of the primary energy, because the energy overall utilization of nuclear heating and coal fired power is higher than that of mode of nuclear power and coal fired heating

  11. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  12. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P.; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    To provide personalized medicine, we not only must determine the treatments and other decisions most likely to be effective for a patient, but also consider the patient’s tradeoff between possible benefits of therapy versus possible loss of quality of life. There are numerous studies indicating that various treatments can negatively affect quality of life. Even if we have all information available for a given patient, it is an arduous task to amass the information to reach a decision that maximizes the utility of the decision to the patient. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist healthcare professionals with decision making tasks. By utilizing emerging large datasets, we hold promise for developing CDSSs that can predict how treatments and other decisions can affect outcomes. However, we need to go beyond that; namely our CDSS needs to account for the extent to which these decisions can affect quality of life. This manuscript provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Such CDSSs are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) as a decision support tool, and we discuss several difficulties with this index. Most importantly, the KDRI does not provide a measure of the expected quality of life if the kidney is accepted versus the expected quality of life if the patient stays on dialysis. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models the kidney transplant decision, and show how the influence diagram approach can resolve these difficulties and provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  13. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  14. Socio-economic Condition of Child Worker of Bangladesh in Their Adulthood: An Econometric Analysis

    Syed Imran Ali Meerza

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has mainly focused on the current socio-economic condition of those people who were child labor in their childhood. In this study, economic indicators are income and employment status. On the other hand, level of education, health status and role in case of decision making in the society are studied as social indicators. According to this study, socio-economic condition of child workers in their adulthood is not very satisfactory. In this research work, we have used Linear Probability Model (LPM and Weighted Least Square (WLS regression analysis to make comparison of current socio-economic status between people who were child labor in their childhood and those who were not child worker in past. We have found that person who was not child worker in early stage of his/her life have higher probability to enjoy better socio-economic condition than that of person who worked as child worker in past. In fact, we have identified that a children who is working as a child worker has 0.61 or 61% probability to have low standard of living in his/her future life.

  15. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    Samuli I Saarni

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Health technology assessment (HTA is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  16. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

  17. Economic Analysis of Coffee Commodity in the Global Market

    HĂĄkovĂĄ, Anna

    2014-01-01

    This diploma thesis provides economic analysis of coffee as a commodity and its role in the global market. It is focused on the commodity itself, and also on the principles of trading in commodity exchanges. It includes analysis of the main factors affecting supply and demand of coffee, it monitors historical trends of price of coffee, by using technical tools it analyses recent development in price and recommends trading tactics for investors. It determines the main actors and...

  18. INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL

    Cheng-lin MIAO; FENG Jun-wen; Bai, Ju

    2007-01-01

    Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to giving a dir...

  19. The effect of perceived regional accents on individual economic behavior: a lab experiment on linguistic performance, cognitive ratings and economic decisions.

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one's own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant's home region--the in-group opponent--, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  20. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  1. Level of damages and economical threshold, decisive aspects in the integrated management of plagues.

    Rafael Meneses

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The establishment and application of economical levels demand a procedure to find with precision the insects population in a given moment. In the integrated management of plagues is not allowed the idea that any insect which is feeding from a part of plants requires a control action, that is why it is very important to determine the real effect that this insect population causes to the cultivation. Any decrease in the crop, constitutes a real waste of time; but when the economical level is defined, it is included an additional factor which is the measure cost of the plagues control. The determination of damages of levels is very important for economists, farming experts and specialists; while for producers is very significant its implementation with the objective to count with a sustainable and beneficial agriculture.

  2. To be or not to be - a long term economic decision

    Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer's primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada's geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry's willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author's contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs

  3. An economic analysis of BWR control rod blade management strategies. Final report

    Nuclear power plants have available a number of alternative courses of action that can contribute to the reduction of personnel exposure to radiation. Possible actions at boiling water reactor (BWR) plants include accelerating the replacement of high-cobalt control rod blades (CRB) or the blades' high-cobalt pins and rollers with low or non-cobalt substitutes. To help utilities understand the exposure reduction and the economic costs and benefits associated with management alternatives, such as accelerated replacement of blades, pins and rollers, EPRI has initiated a project called Cost/Benefit Software for Analyses of Radiation Control Measures (RP1935-32). Through this project EPRI will incorporate engineering-economic techniques into a series of analytical tools that will provide useful insights about alternative exposure reduction options. Prototype software has been developed in an Excel worksheet to analyze issues associated with BWR control rod blade management options. The CRB replacement problem framework and analysis methodology incorporated into the software tool will help plant managers consider explicitly key engineering and economic issues that are relevant to exposure reduction decisions. This tool generates results that can help plant managers make decisions that are fiscally wise by showing all the cost and benefit implications associated with a management action under consideration. This report describes the general analytical approach for evaluating exposure reduction alternatives. The methodology used to analyze blade and pin and roller replacement alternatives, and the results of a case study application of the methodology and the software prototype at Commonwealth Edison

  4. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Woelbert E; Goebel R.

    2013-01-01

    Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues) influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior ...

  5. Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy

    Patrizia Berto; Cristina Negrini; Luigi Ferrannini

    2008-01-01

    Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss cur...

  6. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Exley Catherine E; Steele Jimmy; Holmes Richard D; Donaldson Cam

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, pati...

  7. Norwegian consumers’ ability to make optimal financial decisions and save for retirement :a behavioural economic perspective

    Stupar, David

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT The pension system in Norway has been challenged since the implementation of pension reforms in 2011. In line with the expected increase in the future pension burden, the government’s intention is to build up an economic and social sustainable pension system, motivate people to continue working and provide satisfactory income distribution. The main focus of my thesis is the aspect of the pension reforms that raised huge controversy and resistance among employees in Norway. A complete...

  8. Economic Analysis of Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in the Netherlands.

    Guo, X; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Loeffen, W; Saatkamp, H W

    2016-06-01

    Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious pig disease that causes economic losses and impaired animal welfare. Improving the surveillance system for CSF can help to ensure early detection of the virus, thereby providing a better initial situation for controlling the disease. Economic analysis is required to compare the benefits of improved surveillance with the costs of implementing a more intensive system. This study presents a comprehensive economic analysis of CSF surveillance in the Netherlands, taking into account the specialized structure of Dutch pig production, differences in virulence of CSF strains and a complete list of possible surveillance activities. The starting point of the analysis is the current Dutch surveillance system (i.e. the default surveillance-setup scenario), including the surveillance activities 'daily clinical observation by the farmer', 'veterinarian inspection after a call', 'routine veterinarian inspection', 'pathology in AHS', 'PCR on tonsil in AHS', 'PCR on grouped animals in CVI' and 'confirmatory PCR by NVWA'. Alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were proposed by adding 'routine serology in slaughterhouses', 'routine serology on sow farms' and 'PCR on rendered animals'. The costs and benefits for applying the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were evaluated by comparing the annual mitigated economic losses because of intensified CSF surveillance with the annual additional surveillance costs. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios with 'PCR on rendered animals' are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the scenarios with 'routine serology in slaughterhouses' or 'routine serology on sow farms' are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the moderately virulent CSF strain indicate that the current surveillance system in the Netherlands is adequate. From an economic perspective, there is little to be gained from intensifying surveillance. PMID:25213149

  9. The Role of Interpersonal Traits in Social Decision Making: Exploring Sources of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Economic Games.

    Zhao, Kun; Smillie, Luke D

    2015-08-01

    Economic games are well-established experimental paradigms for modeling social decision making. A large body of literature has pointed to the heterogeneity of behavior within many of these games, which might be partly explained by broad interpersonal trait dispositions. Using the Big Five and HEXACO (Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience) personality frameworks, we review the role of personality in two main classes of economic games: social dilemmas and bargaining games. This reveals an emerging role for Big Five agreeableness in promoting cooperative, egalitarian, and altruistic behaviors across several games, consistent with its core characteristic of maintaining harmonious interpersonal relations. The role for extraversion is less clear, which may reflect the divergent effects of its underlying agentic and affiliative motivational components. In addition, HEXACO honesty-humility and agreeableness may capture distinct aspects of prosocial behavior outside the bounds of the Five-Factor Model. Important considerations and directions for future studies are discussed within the emerging personality-economics interface. PMID:25552474

  10. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  11. Techno-economic analysis of compressed air energy storage systems

    Bozzolani, Emanuele

    2010-01-01

    The continuous escalation of intermittent energy added to the grid and forecasts of peaking power demand increments are rising the effort spent for evaluating the economic feasibility of energy storages. The aim of this research is the techno-economic analysis of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) systems, capable of storing large quantities of off-peak electric energy in the form of high-pressure air, as an ?energy stock? which allows the production of high-profit on-peak electricity when ...

  12. Forecast of the Economic- Financial Performance Based on Diagnostic Analysis

    Daniela Solomon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available To ensure efficient financial management is necessary to achieve the forecast of economic and financial performance on the basis of diagnostic analysis, approach most often developed starting from the prediction of turnover and also necessary for shaping an organization's prospects. In financial management, the turnover’s increasing is considered an objective in itself, being interpreted as generating increased market share, profit. Sales condition therefore the entire activity of a company, their variation being considered the main risk factor of enterprise’s economic and financial performance and the staring point in their forecast.

  13. Economics.

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2015-10-01

    A review of literature during calendar year 2014 focused on environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation. PMID:26420109

  14. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and Sensitivity measures for soil aggregation, for developing dependence methodology, for constructing early alert logic, for tracking trends, for relating the Markov model to other (e.g., Reason) models, for developing and demonstrating rudimentary laptop software, and for developing an input/output display methodology.

  15. THE ROLE OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDIAN MARKET AN INDIAN PROSPECTIVE

    SHASHIKANTH S KALASHETTY

    2014-01-01

    Managerial economics is the application of the economic concepts and economic analysis to the problems of formulating rational managerial decisions". It is sometimes referred to as business economics and is a branch of economics that applies microeconomic analysis to decision methods of businesses or other management units. As such, it bridges economic theory and economics in practice. It draws heavily from quantitative techniques such as regression analysis, correlation a...

  16. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

    The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

  17. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    IngoVernaleken

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  18. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base ĐŸf ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator – the vulnerability index. Firstly, this index shows in what way the investors’ income changes while decreasing the profits in the sphere of agricultural land use by 1 per cent. Secondly, the above mentioned index defines the desire of investors to be present in agriculture under conditions of irrational use of the land resources. The author estimates investment quality by the criterion of «high – low» and interconnects it with substantiation of investment decisions in agricultural land use. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The author concludes that innovative approaches include the following issues: using of the category «investment quality» helps to raise substantiation of investment attractiveness assessment; the assessment of investment quality is undertaken from the side of each investment strategy which helps to describe motivation issues of investment process; the complex ecologically oriented strategy, offered by the author, is innovative by itself as it is based on the ecological and economic indicators of the investment quality, which has never calculated before. The implementation of such a complex ecologically oriented investment strategy is a subject for further researches.

  19. Ex-ante economic analysis of animal disease surveillance.

    Tambi, E N; Maina, O W; Mariner, J C

    2004-12-01

    This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis comparing four alternative intervention strategies for the control and eradication of rinderpest against a scenario of no intervention in a cattle population similar in size to that of Ethiopia. The interventions were three different coverage levels of mass vaccination and one surveillance-based programme where vaccination targeted infected sub-populations. For each scenario, the disease impact was estimated using an open-population, state-transition SEIR ('susceptible', 'exposed', 'infectious', 'recovered') disease transmission model with parameter estimates developed for lineage 1 rinderpest virus. Projected economic surplus gains and costs estimated from the rinderpest eradication programme in Ethiopia were analysed using benefit-cost methods. Social net present values (NPVs) and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) were calculated. Although the economic model found that BCRs were greater than one for all interventions examined, the scenarios of intensive mass vaccination (75% vaccination coverage) and surveillance with targeted vaccination were economically preferable. The BCRs for these strategies were 5.08 and 3.68, respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that an increase in market prices for beef and milk increased the value of economic loss, the economic surplus and returns to investments in terms of NPVs and BCRs. An increase in demand and supply elasticities for beef and milk decreased the value of economic losses. This also had a negative effect on economic surplus and NPVs. The effect of an increase in the discount rate reduced returns to investments, with lower NPVs and BCRs. The authors note that 75% mass vaccination coverage was attempted in Ethiopia in the early 1990s, but failed to eradicate rinderpest because the approach was logistically too difficult to implement in practice. Subsequently, an effective surveillance and epidemiologically targeted vaccination programme was developed and has apparently resulted in the eradication of rinderpest from Ethiopia (the last case was recorded in 1996). The authors conclude that epidemio-surveillance with targeted vaccination is both an economically viable and realistic strategy and offers benefits that extend beyond rinderpest eradication. PMID:15861869

  20. ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS

    Camelia, VECHIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.