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1

Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

2

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) for urban economic analysis and simulation. Th...

Goodchild, Michael F.; Luc Anselin; Linna Li; Wenwen Li

2013-01-01

3

A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

Shekoufeh Nikfar

2012-01-01

4

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

5

Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

2010-07-31

6

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

Michael F. Goodchild

2013-05-01

7

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.

2010-01-01

8

Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

Speck, D E

2008-04-28

9

Economic tool, political decision  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

he project is about under which circumstances it could be beneficial for the european windmill industry to have protectionism applied. The project concludes that it could. The conclusion is reached through the use and investigation of economic trade theory, public choice theory and the concept of regionalism. This is done to investigate what protectionism is, where the political demand for protectionism arises and to investigate the possibility of the European union being capable of taking un...

Ku?hlmann, Kalle Engelhardt; Sander, Rasmus Christian Wolff

2012-01-01

10

Economic modelling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external finarequirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

11

Advanced Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

2013-01-01

12

An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

Tainio Marko

2005-11-01

13

Decision analysis multicriteria analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

14

Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estimates were made of the relation between the plant-gate price of natural gas and the volume of economically recoverable undiscovered resources. Supply curves were presented for full-cycle and half-cycle cases, and for a weighted case in between full- and half-cycle cases. The weighted case was considered the reference case in this study. It was found that 10% of the volume of recoverable gas was economic at a price of $44.13 per 10,000 cubic m, and 38% was considered economic at $88.25 per 10,000 cubic m (in 1990 dollars). Further analysis showed the sensitivities of economic potential to changes in total costs, exploration success ratios, distances of discoveries to gathering systems, and resource estimates. Virtually all of the economically recoverable gas resources were found in four plays. 10 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs

15

Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

16

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

None

1980-06-01

17

Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

18

Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design  

Science.gov (United States)

With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

2012-12-01

19

The reliability analysis--an aid to decision-making in the economic optimization of alternative power plant systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Using the example of the moisture separator drains system for a 1300 MW nuclear power plant with PWR, this lecture will demonstrate the calculation procedure to assist decision-making (reliability/expected losses/economic viability) for alternative design concepts. A critical examination of the results establishes that owing to the inadequate quality of the reliability parameters applied for the components used, a grey zone occurs in which no statistically assured statements can be made as to the economic benefits of the one or other alternative concepts

20

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering  

Science.gov (United States)

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

 
 
 
 
21

The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively. This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio.

Shepperd Sasha

2007-12-01

22

The clinical decision analysis using decision tree  

Science.gov (United States)

The clinical decision analysis (CDA) has used to overcome complexity and uncertainty in medical problems. The CDA is a tool allowing decision-makers to apply evidence-based medicine to make objective clinical decisions when faced with complex situations. The usefulness and limitation including six steps in conducting CDA were reviewed. The application of CDA results should be done under shared decision with patients’ value. PMID:25358466

Bae, Jong-Myon

2014-01-01

23

Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences  

CERN Document Server

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2013-01-01

24

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

Guy Hutton

2008-01-01

25

Economic modeling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

26

Economic Decisions in Lithuania Before the Economic Crisis and during it  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The thesis examines the economic decisions in Lithuania which were taken before and during the economic crisis. It presents the theoretical treatment of fundamental economic decisions and their impact on the economy of the country, i.e. the key indicators of the economic situation in Lithuania and their development, the concept of economic crisis, its causes and consequences, as well as and the macroeconomic decisions taken before and during the economic crisis from the conceptual point of vi...

Kavanauskiene?, Audrone?; Valotkiene?, Daiva

2010-01-01

27

Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

28

Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

2008-07-01

29

Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

2013-12-01

30

Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

David S. Murphy

2013-07-01

31

Decision Analysis Technique  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

Hammad Dabo Baba

2014-01-01

32

Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance  

CERN Document Server

Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

2002-01-01

33

Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies  

Science.gov (United States)

Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

Carter, G. M.

1972-01-01

34

Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

35

Neuronal origins of choice variability in economic decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

To investigate the mechanisms through which economic decisions are formed, I examined the activity of neurons in the orbitofrontal cortex while monkeys chose between different juice types. Different classes of cells encoded the value of individual offers (offer value), the value of the chosen option (chosen value), or the identity of the chosen juice (chosen juice). Choice variability was partly explained by the tendency to repeat choices (choice hysteresis). Surprisingly, near-indifference decisions did not reflect fluctuations in the activity of offer value cells. In contrast, near-indifference decisions correlated with fluctuations in the preoffer activity of chosen juice cells. After the offer, the activity of chosen juice cells reflected the decision difficulty but did not resemble a race-to-threshold. Finally, chosen value cells presented an "activity overshooting" closely related to the decision difficulty and possibly due to fluctuations in the relative value of the juices. This overshooting was independent of choice hysteresis. PMID:24314733

Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

2013-12-01

36

ALMR deployment economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

37

Initial Decision and Risk Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-29

38

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

39

Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision  

Science.gov (United States)

In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

Thomas R. Stabler

2008-01-01

40

Economic Impact Analysis. Project Report.  

Science.gov (United States)

A study determined the economic impact of each dollar invested in Literacy Volunteers of America, Inc. (LVA). The analysis included 217 interviews, 165 in New York and 52 in Wisconsin; analysis of economic impact; and statistical validation and analysis. For every dollar spent by LVA, the value created (return) to the overall economy was a…

Literacy Volunteers of America, Inc., Syracuse, NY.

 
 
 
 
41

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models  

Science.gov (United States)

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2007-01-01

42

Law versus economics? How should insurance intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

How should intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision? The answer must refer to the interdependence of economic determinants and legal duties. Intermediaries potentially guide demand decisions by delivering objective information and by considering individuals' situation and economic circumstances. The economic theory provides determinants that are essential for the insurance demand decision. Undoubtedly, consumers lack information about certain variables, and therefore misjudge th...

Pape, Annika

2013-01-01

43

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

44

Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems  

Science.gov (United States)

In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

Kitt, Robert

45

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

46

Economic optimization of decisions with respect to dairy cow health management.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The research described in this thesis was directed towards decision support in dairy cow health management. Attention was focused on clinical mastitis, in many countries considered to be the most important dairy health problem. First a statistical analysis was carried out to obtain biological and economic parameters with respect to clinical mastitis which fitted in the state space definition of the stochastic dynamic programming model. This optimization model was based on the hierarchic Marko...

Houben, E. H. P.

1995-01-01

47

Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

Oscarson, Nils

2006-01-01

48

Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and e...

Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C. J.

2010-01-01

49

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative contextxt

50

Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

2011-11-15

51

How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Mandatory pension systems can have a negative impact on individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, defined benefit pension schemes that are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement, and therefore, reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital. After a review of frequently applied approaches to assess the incentives generated by a pension system, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by...

Bodor, Andras; Robalino, David; Rutkowski, Michal

2008-01-01

52

Analysis of Investment Decision by Nigerian Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

Decisions taken by Pension Fund Administrators whether to invest in a particular asset class or not depend upon relative importance of different factors. The relative importance of these factors and the interactions among decisions taken by PFAs has remained unknown to the contributors. Therefore, this study is designed to examine factors affecting investment decision in PFAs. This research work examined the factors that influence investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs. The study also evaluated investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs based on both qualitative and quantitative factors.
Primary data were used for this research, which were generated through the use of questionnaire. Simple random sampling technique was used to select respondents from five PFAs in Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using factor analysis.
The result of the study indicates that three factors were considered by PFA managers when making investment decisions: Economic, Risk and Security of real estate factors. The study concluded that National Pension Commission should be a bit flexible in its regulatory restriction of investment areas of PFAs to enhance a better investment decision making process. The study therefore, recommended that PFAs should use reward structure to ensure accountability of those that are in charge of investment decision making.

Key words: Investment; Decision making; Pension Fund Administrator; Factor analysis; National pension commission

Emmanuel TSADO

2011-12-01

53

Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Diagnostic and therapeutic choice in neurology can fortunately be made without formal decision support in the majority of cases. in many patients a diagnosis and treatment choice are relatively easy to establish. This study however, concerns the application of a decision support methodology - clinical decision analysis - to several problems in the clinical neurosdences where diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutic choice are not obvious. Sometimes decision making in clinical medic...

Dippel, D. W. J.

1994-01-01

54

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA).

James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

1995-11-01

55

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

56

An analysis of medical decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

57

A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In this paper we aim to develop a multidimensional decision-making model that would be more effective debt management to reduce them.

Riana Iren RADU

2011-11-01

58

Economic decision making of renewable power producers under uncertainty  

Science.gov (United States)

The recent booming development of renewable power generation and government subsidies are constantly under scrutiny and various opinions exist regarding whether subsidies should be continued or not. Motivated by the controversies and debates, this dissertation attempted to address the investment decision making problem under uncertainties in the renewable power industry from the perspective of an individual power producer. Given that independent power producers still dominate the renewable power production and that majority of their output are sold through long-term power purchase agreements, this study focused on two types of uncertainties that could represent most of their kinds: the operations & maintenance (O&M) cost and governmental subsidy's renewal/expiration. Three types of investment activities that covers the major part of any renewable power plant's economic life are thoroughly investigated in a chronological order: an initial entry, exit when the plant reaches its economic life, and repowering. A real-options approach was adopted and improved to model the value of a power plant considering its future activities, while both cost and policy changes modeled as some stochastic processes. Significant policy implications and managerial insights were obtained as a result of extensive analytical modeling and statistical study of empirical evidence.

Lou, Chenlu

59

Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

Seidel, Jonathan

2010-01-01

60

Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

 
 
 
 
61

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary  

Science.gov (United States)

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

Macomber, H. L.

1986-01-01

62

Techno-Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

1997-12-31

63

Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease.  

Science.gov (United States)

In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at improving the underpinning evidence base. PMID:25268879

Peeler, E J; Otte, M J

2014-09-30

64

Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

65

Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD  

...Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Extreme volatility during the global financial crisis complicated economic forecasting, leading ... Economic crisis ; forecasting ; projections Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD Français Follow us E-mail Alerts Blogs OECD Home About ...outlook, analysis and forecasts › Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts Economic outlook,...to foster green growth Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Send Print Tweet   11/02/2014 - ...

66

Using of fuzzy and imitation models and cluster analysis for decision of marketing tasks  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Actuality of using of some economic-mathematical methods at the decision of marketing tasks is considered in the article. The examples of using of fuzzy evaluation, cluster analysis and imitation modelling in marketing are presented here.

Borisova, Tetyana Myhaylivna; Bryndzya, Zinoviy Fedorovych

2011-01-01

67

Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2013-01-01

68

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

69

Economic Analysis of Insurance Fraud  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We survey recent developments in the economic analysis of insurance fraud. The paper first sets out the two main approaches to insurance fraud that have been developped in the literature, namely the costly state verification and the costly state falsification. Under costly state verification, the insurer can verify claims at some cost. Claims' verification may be deterministic or random, and it can be conditioned on fraud signals perceived by insurers. Under costly state falsification, the po...

Picard, Pierre

2012-01-01

70

Statistical distributions dor decision analysis : a supplement  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This working paper presents simple statistical distributions useful for decision analysis. For a concise summary of some twenty-eight commonly used distributions and their associated functions, see Hastings and Peacock (1974). This reference does not include the distributions described below; hence the raison d'etre of this working paper. For a brief discussion of decision analysis, see Budnick, et al (1977). The distributions presented are (1) the triangular distribution, (a) an extension of...

Gates, J. M.

1985-01-01

71

Bayesian Decision Analysis for Recurrent Cervical Cancer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Risk modeling for recurrent cervical cancer requires the development of new concepts and methodologies. Unlike most daily decisions, many medical decision making have substantial consequences, and involve important uncertainties and trade-offs. The uncertainties may be about the accuracy of available diagnostic tests, the natural history of the cervical cancer, the effects of treatment in a patient or the effects of an intervention in a group or population as a whole. With such complex decisions, it can be difficult to comprehend all options “in our heads”. This study applied Bayesian decision analysis to an inferential problem of recurrent cervical cancer in survival analysis. A formulation is considered where individual was expected to experience repeated events, along with concomitant variables. In addition, the sampling distribution of the observations is modelled through a proportional intensity Nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The proposed decision models can provide decision support techniques not only for taking action in the light of all available relevant information, but also for minimizing expected loss. The decision process is useful in selecting the best alternative when a patient with recurrent cervical cancer, in particular, the proposed decision process can provide more realistic solutions.

Chi-Chang Chang

2014-05-01

72

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of part...

Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

2013-01-01

73

A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

E. S. Chung

2008-10-01

74

Economic Decision Making Model for Geothermal Sludge Disposal alternatives (EDM-GSD): Version 1. 0  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Economic Decision Making Model for Geothermal Sludge Disposal Alternatives-Version 1.0'' (EDM-GSD 1.0) is a microcomputer-based dynamic model developed to assist in determining the benefits and costs of various geothermal solid waste treatment procedures. It is intended for use by geothermal managers in dealing with geothermal waste and treatment process issues as a means to assist in overcoming the technical and economic barriers to expanded geothermal energy utilization. The model is based on a 50MW flash plant. However, it is designed to provide the user with sufficient flexibility when inputing data to analyze all types of geothermal plants. Default values for economic and technical parameters can be overridden by the user through the input of specific data. In addition, data can be changed for any year of an analysis to account for desired changes in input parameters such as costs and distance to disposal sites. The results of the model will allow the user to: Determine current geothermal plant disposal costs; Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative treatment techniques; and Evaluate the economic effects of changes in disposal regulations.

1987-09-01

75

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of nuclear power from the perspective of sustainable development. Nuclear issues have become lied at the center of social concerns in Korea because they include not only the field of energy supply but also the social interests and conflicts. This study will help to provide the unbiased information, which can be referred to and utilized in reaching a social consensus on the related social issues. This study includes both the nuclear related issues in the electricity planning and the regional economic effects by nuclear power. The nuclear related issues in the electricity planning in the study include the probability assessment of the current national forecasted electricity demand being materialized, projection of the proper nuclear capacity, and the proper role and prospects of renewable energy, and distributed generation. For the analysis on the regional economic effect from nuclear power, the region of Uljin was chosen, and input output analysis on the region was carried out. For the input output analysis, we created the regional I/O table by classifying the number of producing sectors into 14 taking into consideration the availability of the regional statistics

76

Improving the information available to health care decision makers in the field of economic evaluations  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the current context of the growing of health care expenses, the allocation of scarce resources in the most efficient way becomes essential. Consequently, the routinely use of full economic evaluations in decision processes should be promoted. However, information provided by economic evaluations is not used in an optimal way by health care decision makers, mostly because of their lack of transferability to other countries and the difficulty of judging about their quality. The aim of the th...

Gerkens, Sophie

2008-01-01

77

Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This work considers economic decision making, particularly scenarios in which the decision maker faces the presence of other (private) persons. It draws inferences for the design, operation, and use of e-commerce platforms from an economic and information systems perspective and is oriented along two vital concepts therein: social preferences and risk. The role of the type as well as the relation towards the reference person is explored from an empirical and game theoretical perspective.

Teubner, Timm

2013-01-01

78

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

TobiasKalenscher

2011-01-01

79

WEED MANAGEMENT DECISION MODELS: PITFALLS, PERCEPTIONS, AND POSSIBILITIES OF THE ECONOMIC THRESHOLD APPROACH  

Science.gov (United States)

A World Wide Web survey was conducted to investigate perceptions of weed science professionals regarding the value of weed management decision models based on economic thresholds. Over half of the 56 respondents were involved in model development or support, and 82% thought decision models could be ...

80

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

 
 
 
 
81

The Discounting of Ambiguous Information in Economic Decision Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In three experimental studies we investigated how decision makers respond to ambiguous information about costs and benefits. In Experiment 1, we studied the effect of ambiguity about prior costs. Experiments 2 and 3 focused on the effect of ambiguity about future outcomes. The collective results of the three studies suggest that decision makers discount ambiguous information. The findings are related to insights on the disjunction effect, the sunk cost effect, transaction decoupling, and ambi...

Dijk, E.; Zeelenberg, M.

2003-01-01

82

Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

2013-01-01

83

The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.

Hutton Guy

2011-06-01

84

Using decision analysis in physical protection planning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

85

The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

86

Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range of impacts of also a strategic character (van Exel et al., 2002). Accordingly, appraisal methodologies are undergoing substantial changes in order to deal with the developments (Vickerman, 2000) that are varying from country to country and leading to different approaches (Banister and Berechman, 2000). It is, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport infrastructure project is for this reason required. An appropriate ex-ante evaluation method for such projects can be based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Tsamboulas, 2007. Vreeker et al. 2002), which in most cases canbe combined with a CBA (Leleur, 2000). Scanning the literature (Belton and Stewart, 2002; Goodwin and Wright, 2009; Keeney and Raiffa, 1993; von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986) it is found that the use of MCDA in the decision process usually provides some or all of the following features: 1. Improvement of the satisfaction with the decision process 2. Improvement of the quality of the decision itself 3. Increased productivity of the decision-makers MCDA can in this respect be seen as a tool for appraisal of different alternatives, when several points of view and priorities are taken into account to produce a common output. Hence, it is very useful during the formulation of a decision support system (DSS) designed to deal with complex issues. The literature on DSS is extensive, providing a sound basis for the methodologies employed and the mathematics involved. Moreover, there are numerous systems covering several disciplines, policy contexts and users’ needs for specific application environments (Janic, 2003; Salling et al., 2007; Tsamboulas and Mikroudis, 2006). The use of DSS for solving MCDA problems has among others been treated by Barfod (2012), Chen et al. (2008) and Larichev et al. (2002), where it is shown that a DSS can effectively support a decision making process making use of appropriate MCDA methodologies.

2014-01-01

87

DEFINING AND MEASURING RISK AND OPPORTUNITY IN BOCR FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION ANALYSIS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision aid through analysis of benefit, opportunity, cost and risk (BOCR) offer the structural framework to get all necessary information to an effective decision making. It was investigated by researchers of differents fields (economics, engineering, management, ...) and many evaluation and recommendation methods have been published in the literature to help decision makers to make their choice. However, most of the existing methods do not focus on quantification and evaluation of uncertai...

Bouzarour-amokrane, Yasmina; Tchangani, Ayeley; Pe?re?s, Franc?ois

2012-01-01

88

Multicriteria decision analysis: a comprehensive decision approach for management of contaminated sediments.  

Science.gov (United States)

Contaminated sediments and other sites present a difficult challenge for environmental decisionmakers. They are typically slow to recover or attenuate naturally, may involve multiple regulatory agencies and stakeholder groups, and engender multiple toxicological and ecotoxicological risks. While environmental decision-making strategies over the last several decades have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex approaches, there remains considerable dissatisfaction among business, industry, and the public with existing management strategies. Consequently, contaminated sediments and materials are the subject of intense technology development, such as beneficial reuse or in situ treatment. However, current decision analysis approaches, such as comparative risk assessment, benefit-cost analysis, and life cycle assessment, do not offer a comprehensive approach for incorporating the varied types of information and multiple stakeholder and public views that must typically be brought to bear when new technologies are under consideration. Alternatively, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a scientifically sound decision framework for management of contaminated materials or sites where stakeholder participation is of crucial concern and criteria such as economics, environmental impacts, safety, and risk cannot be easily condensed into simple monetary expressions. This article brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to the assessment of contaminated sediment management technologies. Additionally, it tests an MCDA approach for coupling expert judgment and stakeholder values in a hypothetical contaminated sediments management case study wherein MCDA is used as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies. PMID:16492181

Linkov, I; Satterstrom, F K; Kiker, G; Seager, T P; Bridges, T; Gardner, K H; Rogers, S H; Belluck, D A; Meyer, A

2006-02-01

89

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

90

Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

Baicoianu, A.

2010-12-01

91

Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does not have unlimited economic resources. Thus it is necessary to prioritise between the many projects and initiatives which are being discussed in the public sector. In order to conduct such a comprehensive prioritisation (across different sectors or within the same sector) it is a precondition that a systematic evaluation of the projects/proposals/initiatives’ advantages and disadvantages is carried out. For many years cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been used as the main tool for the purpose of economic comparison not only in Denmark but also in many other countries around the world. Investment projects that have been prepared thoroughly and evaluated to have a high socio-economic return seem to be able to obtain political acceptance more easily than projects that have not been evaluated through this type of assessment. On the other hand socio-economic assessments can also be used to turn down projects that do not show a satisfactory return. In the political prioritisation process other considerations of a political, environmental or economic character may influence the decision making. Some of these are not traditionally a part of the socioeconomic assessment, but are instead used as a supplement in the final decision phase. The socioeconomic assessment strives towards valuing all advantages and disadvantages of a project. On the background of this the project’s value for the society is calculated. This value can afterwards be compared to the values for other projects. The socio-economic appraisal is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning related tasks.

2015-01-01

92

Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

93

Solar economic analysis: an alternative approach  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conventional economic analysis which utilizes the discounted present value criterion is examined from a critical perspective. It is found that this technique has a number of limiting characteristics which contribute to the lack of general usage of economic analysis for evaluating passive solar installations. Within this context an alternative approach is suggested for determining the economic desirability of such investments. This latter method, compound future worth analysis, is found to be both more understandable and flexible.

Thayer, M.A.; Brunton, D.; Noll, S.A.

1979-01-01

94

Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA)  

Science.gov (United States)

Established in 1995, the Center for Economic Policy Analysis (CEPA) is the research center of the Department of Economics at the New School for Social Research in New York city. To foster an "active forum for economic policy debate" CEPA offers three working paper series on Globalization, Labor Markets, and Social Policy; Economic Policy Analysis; and International Capital Market and the Future of Economic Policy as well as a list of current workshops and research projects. CEPA's Research Resources metapage offers a compendium of funding opportunities.

95

The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today that investment hold a great significance because of the dynamics of the economic development and economic growth, and also because of the great inequalities, given by the information asymmetry. In this paper we first proposed to explore the determinants of investment that lead to making the investment decision and in the second part we analyze the competitive economic environment with regard to Romania and its implications for economic growth and investment decision.

Raluca Andreea POPA

2011-08-01

96

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

97

Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

Exley Catherine E

2011-05-01

98

Economic analysis of production bottlenecks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

Lawrence Stephen R.

1995-01-01

99

Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

100

Economic simulation to support investment decisions in pig farming.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of a model that simulates the consequences of long-term investment decisions in pig farming. The thesis is composed of six parts. Chapter 1 deals with a basic review of the literature on strategic planning under risk and uncertainty. A computer-based model for strategic pig farm planning, the Investment Simulation Model (ISM) was developed and described in chapter 2. ISM is a stochastic simulation model, which uses data of ...

Backus, G. B. C.

1994-01-01

 
 
 
 
101

Economic aspects in landscape decision-making: a participatory planning tool based on a representative approach  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, we develop a method for spatial decision support that combines economic efficiency â¿¿ measured by the concept op willingness to pay â¿¿ with a participatory planning tool, that allows for an active collaboration among the actors involved, in such a way that decision makers can draw on the outcomes in their spatial planning and design process. The method is called RITAM, a Dutch acronym for spatially explicit, participatory and interdisciplinary trade-off meth...

Heide, C. M.; Blaeij, A. T.; Heijman, W. J. M.

2008-01-01

102

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about...

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

103

Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available techniques for quantitative economic impact assessment: partial budgeting, partial equilibrium analysis, input output analysis, and computable general equilibrium analysis. These techniques differ in ...

Soliman, T. A. A.; Mourits, M. C. M.; Oude Lansink, A. G. J. M.; Werf, W.

2010-01-01

104

Agreeing on Decisions: An Analysis with Counterfactuals  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Moses & Nachum ([7]) identify conceptual flaws in Bacharach's generalization ([3]) of Aumann's seminal "agreeing to disagree" result ([1]). Essentially, Bacharach's framework requires agents' decision functions to be defined over events that are informationally meaningless for the agents. In this paper, we argue that the analysis of the agreement theorem should be carried out in information structures that can accommodate for counterfactual states. We therefore develop a met...

Tarbush, Bassel

2013-01-01

105

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk s: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

106

Health economic analysis of screening  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified. Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

Krauth, Christian

2008-01-01

107

Review of The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This review examines two important works in decision analysis: Howard and Matheson's The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, and Winterfeldt and Edwards's "Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.

Breese, Jack

1988-01-01

108

Introduction to Land Use Decision Making Kit and Economics of Land Use. [2 Units].  

Science.gov (United States)

Included in this set of materials are two units: (1) Introduction to Land Use Decision Making Kit, and (2) Economics of Land Use. Each unit includes student guide sheets, reference material, and tape script. A set of 35mm slides and audiotapes are usually used with the materials. The introductory unit provides an overview of land use and suggested…

Haakonsen, Harry O., Ed.; Schaefer, Larry, Ed.

109

The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game  

Science.gov (United States)

The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2003-06-01

110

Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

Courtney MR

2014-10-01

111

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formanance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology

112

16 CFR 1000.28 - Directorate for Economic Analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

... 2010-01-01 false Directorate for Economic Analysis. 1000.28 Section 1000.28...FUNCTIONS § 1000.28 Directorate for Economic Analysis. The Directorate for Economic Analysis, which is managed by the...

2010-01-01

113

Decision and decision makers  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent us...

Anuta Porutiu

2010-01-01

114

ANALYSIS OF MANAGEMENT INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The purpose of this work is the analysis of the influence of management on the economic efficiency. The working methods used in preparing of this material is the analysis, synthesis and observation applied following consultation with specialized literature. Research has demonstrated that a systemic approach to management contribute to the effectiveness and measurement of this system in economic practice. As a conclusion we could rely that the management is a primary middle, and efficiency is ...

Condrat?chi, Liliana

2012-01-01

115

An economic analysis of alternative paving materials  

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this paper is to present a means for economic analysis of alternative equivalent pavement designs, considering such factors as initial construction cost, annual maintenance cost, salvage value and the various intangibles which occur during the analysis period. Having established a means of economic comparison, it is then the intent of this paper to show that Portland Cement Concrete has been and is a viable pavement alternative and ought to receive due consideration in the military construction program.

Mustain, J. L.

1982-12-01

116

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3...

Jit Mark; Levin Carol; Brisson Marc; Levin Ann; Resch Stephen; Berkhof Johannes; Kim Jane; Hutubessy Raymond

2013-01-01

117

Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis  

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This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to il...

Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

2009-01-01

118

Comparative Study on the Power Generation Options in Korea using Multi Criteria Decision Analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The electric utility sector is of central importance for the economic growth and social development. While numerous social and economic benefits arise from electricity production, it can also have impacts, which may not be fully agreed to the concept of various dimensions. This paper provides a comparative study on several kinds of power generation options in Korea using Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. In the analysis using MCDA, four factors are used; economical, environmental, social and security-related. The MCDAbased technology-specific scores are useful comparative indicators. This evaluation covers selected current coal, nuclear and renewable energies (wind and photo voltaic technologies) in Korea

119

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in economic analysis. A detailed economic analysis is presented in a subsequent article. PMID:23066736

Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

2014-06-01

120

True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of t age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

 
 
 
 
121

A decision analysis of traumatic splenic injuries.  

Science.gov (United States)

We created a decision analysis model of the nonsurgical management of traumatic splenic injuries to clarify the risk of hospital survival, overwhelming postsplenectomy infection (OPSI) deaths, and transfusion-related deaths. We reviewed 72 cases of splenic injury at our institution to identify our transfusion requirements for successful observation (0.5 units), observation failure (1.0 units), and surgical splenic management (1.6 units). Using our model and baseline probabilities determined from the literature, we compared the nonsurgical management of splenic injuries with immediate laparotomy and found an increase in hospital survival with observation, but an over two-fold increase in the risk of transfusion-related death. The OPSI deaths were not markedly different between the two strategies. Overall, we found decision analysis useful in identifying important variables such as the probability of nontherapeutic laparotomy death or missed injury, and in clarifying the risk of the nonsurgical management of splenic injuries with regard to transfusion-related deaths and OPSI deaths. PMID:1404500

Feliciano, P D; Mullins, R J; Trunkey, D D; Crass, R A; Beck, J R; Helfand, M

1992-09-01

122

Economic analysis of nuclear reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

123

On Economic Analysis of International Law  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available
The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

Nai-gen ZHANG

2006-06-01

124

Identifying Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Flood Control Decision - A Hydro-economic Hedging Framework  

Science.gov (United States)

Different from conventional studies developing reservoir operation models and treating forecast as input to obtain operation decisions case by case, this study issues a hydro-economic analysis framework and derives some general relationships between optimal flood control decision and streamflow forecast. By analogy with the hedging rule theory for water supply, we formulate reservoir flood control with a two-stage optimization model, in which the properties of flood damage (i.e., diminishing marginal damage) and the characteristics of forecast uncertainty (i.e., the longer the forecast horizon, the larger the forecast uncertainty) are incorporated to minimize flood risk. We define flood conveying capacity surplus (FCCS) variables to elaborate the trade-offs between the release of current stage (i.e., stage 1) and in the release of future stage (i.e., stage 2). Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the flood risk trade-off between the two stages is theoretically represented and illustrated by three typical situations depending on forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude. The analytical results also show some complicated effects of forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude on real-time flood control decision: 1) When there is a big flood with a small FCCS, the whole FCCS should be allocated to the current stage to hedge against the more certain and urgent flood risk in the current stage; 2) when there is a medium flood with a moderate FCCS, some FCCS should be allocated to the future stage but more FCCS still should be allocated to the current stage; and 3) when there is a small flood with a large FCCS, more FCCS should be allocated to the future stage than the current stage, as a large FCCS in the future stage can still induce some flood risk (distribution of future stage forecast uncertainty is more disperse) while a moderate FCCS in the current stage can induce a small risk. Moreover, this study also presents a hypothetical case study to analyze the flood risk under Pseudo probabilistic streamflow forecast (pPSF, deterministic forecast with variance) and Real probabilistic streamflow forecast (rPSF, ensemble forecast) forecast uncertainties, which shows ensemble forecast techniques are more efficient on mitigating flood risk.

Zhao, T.; Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2011-12-01

125

Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process. Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced laying the foundation with different case examples ranging from road, rail to air transport projects. Two major concerns in building the assessment model, CBA-DK, are to bring informed decision support to the decision-makers and to specify relevant probability distribution functions to feed into the Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific decision task. ADG depicts the decision-makers risk aversion towards a specific assessment task, i.e. by illustrating probabilities of an infeasible socio-economic rate of return. To perform informed decision support as proposed by ADG it is necessary to determine a set of suitable probability distributions. This selection process has been conducted among others by literature studies, conference and seminar attendances and substantial amount of tests within CBA-DK. Currently, the model is made up by five different distributions furtherdivided into two groups of non-parametric and parametric functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects.

Salling, Kim Bang

2008-01-01

126

Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management  

Science.gov (United States)

The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

Chang, N.

2006-12-01

127

Spend more today: Using behavioural economics to improve retirement expenditure decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper examines how behavioural economics can be used to improve the expenditure decisions of retirees. It identifies how accumulated assets can be used optimally throughout retirement to produce life-long income when required, to make provision for contingencies – such as unanticipated spikes in expenditure – and to optimize the size and timing of bequests. We do this using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan which employs defaults ...

Blake, David; Boardman, Tom

2010-01-01

128

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

TobiasKalenscher

2011-06-01

129

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

130

Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

131

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

132

Social economic decision-making across the lifespan: An fMRI investigation.  

Science.gov (United States)

Recent research in neuroeconomics suggests that social economic decision-making may be best understood as a dual-systems process, integrating the influence of deliberative and affective subsystems. However, most of this research has focused on young adults and it remains unclear whether our current models extend to healthy aging. To address this question, we investigated the behavioral and neural basis of simple economic decisions in 18 young and 20 older healthy adults. Participants made decisions which involved accepting or rejecting monetary offers from human and non-human (computer) partners in an Ultimatum Game, while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The partners' proposals involved splitting an amount of money between the two players, and ranged from $1 to $5 (from a $10 pot). Relative to young adults, older participants expected more equitable offers and rejected moderately unfair offers ($3) to a larger extent. Imaging results revealed that, relative to young participants, older adults had higher activations in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) when receiving unfair offers ($1-$3). Age group moderated the relationship between left DLPFC activation and acceptance rates of unfair offers. In contrast, older adults showed lower activation of bilateral anterior insula in response to unfair offers. No age group difference was observed when participants received fair ($5) offers. These findings suggest that healthy aging may be associated with a stronger reliance on computational areas subserving goal maintenance and rule shifting (DLPFC) during interactive economic decision-making. Consistent with a well-documented "positivity effect", older age may also decrease recruitment of areas involved in emotion processing and integration (anterior insula) in the face of social norm violation. PMID:22414593

Harlé, Katia M; Sanfey, Alan G

2012-06-01

133

A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods...

Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

2011-01-01

134

Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes  

Science.gov (United States)

A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

Schaefer, B.

1974-01-01

135

Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and traf the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

136

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

2000-12-01

137

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NO...

138

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NO...

139

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.  

Science.gov (United States)

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer. PMID:22420272

Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

2012-02-01

140

Use of ecosystem services economic valuation for decision making: questioning a literature blindspot.  

Science.gov (United States)

Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (ESV) is often seen as a tool that can potentially enhance our collective choices regarding ecosystem services as it factors in the costs and benefits of their degradation. Yet, to achieve this, the social processes leading to decisions need to use ESV effectively. This makes it necessary to understand if and how ESV is or is not used by decision-makers. However, there appears to be a literature blindspot as to the issue of the Use of Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (UESV). This paper proposes a systematic review on UESV in peer-reviewed scientific literature. It shows that this literature gives little attention to this issue and rarely reports cases where ESV has been put to actual use, even though such use is frequently referred to as founding the goal and justification of ESV. The review identifies three categories of potential UESV: decisive, technical and informative, which are usually mentioned as prospects for the valuations published. Two sets of hypotheses are examined to explain this result: either the use of ESV is a common practice, but is absent from the literature reviewed here; or the use of ESV is effectively rare. These hypotheses are discussed and open up further avenues of research which should make the actual use of ESV their core concern. PMID:23500023

Laurans, Yann; Rankovic, Aleksandar; Billé, Raphaël; Pirard, Romain; Mermet, Laurent

2013-04-15

 
 
 
 
141

An economic analysis of communal goat production  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

Webb, E. C.; Mccrindle, C. M. E.; Sebei, P. J.

2012-01-01

142

Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias / Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Colombia | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos [...] empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales. Abstract in english Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construct [...] ion of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

Ludy A, Parada-Vargas; Alejandra, Taborda-Restrepo.

2011-04-01

143

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

144

Behavioral Economic Decision Making and Alcohol-related Sexual Risk Behavior.  

Science.gov (United States)

The discipline of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics to systematically characterize decision-making preferences. Two forms of behavioral economic decision making are of relevance to HIV risk behavior: delay discounting, reflecting preferences for immediate small rewards relative to larger delayed rewards (i.e., immediate gratification), and probability discounting, reflecting preferences for larger probabilistic rewards relative to smaller guaranteed rewards (i.e., risk sensitivity). This study examined questionnaire-based indices of both types of discounting in relation to sexual risk taking in an emergency department sample of hazardous drinkers who engage in risky sexual behavior. More impulsive delay discounting was significantly associated with increased sexual risk-taking during a drinking episode, but not general sexual risk-taking. Probability discounting was not associated with either form of sexual risk-taking. These findings implicate impulsive delay discounting with sexual risk taking during alcohol intoxication and provide further support for applying this approach to HIV risk behavior. PMID:25267115

MacKillop, James; Celio, Mark A; Mastroleo, Nadine R; Kahler, Christopher W; Operario, Don; Colby, Suzanne M; Barnett, Nancy P; Monti, Peter M

2014-09-30

145

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING  

Science.gov (United States)

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

146

A Decision Aid Approach for Optimisation Problems Involving Several Economic Functions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.

Moeti Joseph Rangoaga

2012-09-01

147

The meaning of the virtual Midas touch: An ERP study in economic decision making.  

Science.gov (United States)

The Midas touch refers to the altruistic effects of a brief touch. Though these effects have often been replicated, they remain poorly understood. We investigate the psychophysiology of the effect using remotely transmitted, precisely timed, tactile messages in an economic decision-making game called Ultimatum. Participants were more likely to accept offers after receiving a remotely transmitted touch. Furthermore, we found distinct effects of touch on event-related potentials evoked by (a) feedback regarding accepted and rejected offers, (b) decision cues related to proposals, and (c) the haptic and auditory cues themselves. In each case, a late positive effect of touch was observed and related to the P3. Given the role of the P3 in memory-related functions, the results indicate an indirect relationship between touch and generosity that relies on memory. This hypothesis was further tested and confirmed in the positive effects of touch on later proposals. PMID:25265874

Spapé, Michiel M; Hoggan, Eve E; Jacucci, Giulio; Ravaja, Niklas

2014-09-30

148

Influence of different technical energetic and economic scenarios on the decision of installing a new heat exchanger; Influence des differents scenarios techniques, energetiques et ecinomiques sur la decision d`installer un nouvel echangeur de chaleur  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article proposes to examine the decision of installing a new heat exchanger in a working industrial unit in order to improve its energy performances. This examination is based on a new graphical method permitting us to approach the decision while taking into consideration the operating, technological and conjectural variables. The analysis of the results shows that improvement in energy performances of an industrial unit does not always contribute to improving its economic performances. Factors tat govern this contribution are in increasing importance: the choice of heat exchanger`s configuration, the energy scenarios, the energy to be saved and the choice of the construction material of the heat exchanger. (authors)

Jeday, M.R.; Gaabab, A.; Ghoudi, M. [Ecole Nationale d`Ingenieurs, Gabes (Tunisia)

1996-06-01

149

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIABLE RATE TECHNOLOGY  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Variable Rate Technology (VRT offers an opportunity to improve production efficiency by allowing input applications to fluctuate in response to spatial variations in soil characteristics and nutrient levels. Society may also benefit from reduced negative externalities, such as surface and groundwater contamination, from input applications. Using a dynamic spatial model, this study examines how the interaction among variability, spatial autocorrelation, and meanlevel of soil fertility affects optimal sampling density and the economic gains from VRT. VRT was found to be profitable under selected conditions, and the optimal grid size will vary with these conditions. In the case where variability and mean fertility levels are significantly high associated with low spatial autocorrelation, VRT produces greater net returns than Uniform Rate Technology (URT, even with the smallest grid size to base the input application decisions. Results also demonstrate that optimal grid size increases with increased spatial autocorrelation.

Isti Surjandari

2003-12-01

150

Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users to apply evidence-based medicine to make informed decisions when confronted with difficult clinical scenarios. A decision tree depicts potential alternatives and outcomes involved with a given decision. Probabilities and utilities are used to quantify the various options and help determine the best course of action. Sensitivity analysis allows users to explore the uncertainty of data on expected clinical outcomes. The decision maker can thereafter establish a preferred method of treatment and explore variables which influence the final clinical outcome. The present paper reviews the technique of decision analysis with particular focus on its application to clinical decision making.Keywords: decision analysis, patient preference, game theory, evidence-based medicine

Ilyas S Aleem

2008-12-01

151

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc.

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

152

Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory  

CERN Document Server

Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

Harp, Dylan R

2011-01-01

153

Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

154

Bayesian Decision Analysis for Recurrent Cervical Cancer  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Risk modeling for recurrent cervical cancer requires the development of new concepts and methodologies. Unlike most daily decisions, many medical decision making have substantial consequences, and involve important uncertainties and trade-offs. The uncertainties may be about the accuracy of available diagnostic tests, the natural history of the cervical cancer, the effects of treatment in a patient or the effects of an intervention in a group or population as a whole. With such complex decisi...

Chi-Chang Chang

2014-01-01

155

Decision-tree analysis of control strategies.  

Science.gov (United States)

A major focus of research on visually guided action is the identification of control strategies that map optical information to actions. The traditional approach has been to test the behavioral predictions of a few hypothesized strategies against subject behavior in environments in which various manipulations of available information have been made. While important and compelling results have been achieved with these methods, they are potentially limited by small sets of hypotheses and the methods used to test them. In this study, we introduce a novel application of data-mining techniques in an analysis of experimental data that is able to both describe and model human behavior. This method permits the rapid testing of a wide range of possible control strategies using arbitrarily complex combinations of optical variables. Through the use of decision-tree techniques, subject data can be transformed into an easily interpretable, algorithmic form. This output can then be immediately incorporated into a working model of subject behavior. We tested the effectiveness of this method in identifying the optical information used by human subjects in a collision-avoidance task. Our results comport with published research on collision-avoidance control strategies while also providing additional insight not possible with traditional methods. Further, the modeling component of our method produces behavior that closely resembles that of the subjects upon whose data the models were based. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that data-mining techniques provide powerful new tools for analyzing human data and building models that can be applied to a wide range of perception-action tasks, even outside the visual-control setting we describe. PMID:25316047

Weber, Romann M; Fajen, Brett R

2014-10-15

156

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

157

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MANUFACTURING PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This thesis deals with economic analysis of manufacturing photovoltaic modules. Photovoltaic modules production presents a certain expense and load for the environment, despite the fact that solar modules produce electric energy in an environmentally friendly way. Therefore the goal of this thesis is to determine solar modules investment payback period. That is why we performed calculations based on solar modules manufacturing costs and electric energy purchase prices. To conclude, the paybac...

Pantaler, Nus?a

2014-01-01

158

An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

159

Analysis of the economic development of the region  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available We have studied the basic principles and structure analysis of the economic development of the region. Analyzes the basic steps of a comprehensive analysis of the economic development of the region.

I.G. Goncharenko

2013-04-01

160

Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis  

CERN Document Server

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents r

Ehrgott, Matthias; Greco, Salvatore

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
161

17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

...2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Office of Economic Analysis. 200.23a Section 200.23a...General Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The Office of Economic Analysis is responsible for providing an...

2010-04-01

162

Bridging the Gap: Exploring the Barriers to Using Economic Evidence in Healthcare Decision Making and Strategies for Improving Uptake.  

Science.gov (United States)

Evidence from economic evaluations is often not used to inform healthcare policy despite being well regarded by policy makers and physicians. This article employs the accessibility and acceptability framework to review the barriers to using evidence from economic evaluation in healthcare policy and the strategies used to overcome these barriers. Economic evaluations are often inaccessible to policymakers due to the absence of relevant economic evaluations, the time and cost required to conduct and interpret economic evaluations, and lack of expertise to evaluate quality and interpret results. Consistently reported factors that limit the translation of findings from economic evaluations into healthcare policy include poor quality of research informing economic evaluations, assumptions used in economic modelling, conflicts of interest, difficulties in transferring resources between sectors, negative attitudes to healthcare rationing, and the absence of equity considerations. Strategies to overcome these barriers have been suggested in the literature, including training, structured abstract databases, rapid evaluation, reporting checklists for journals, and considering factors other than cost effectiveness in economic evaluations, such as equity or budget impact. The factors that prevent or encourage decision makers to use evidence from economic evaluations have been identified, but the relative importance of these factors to decision makers is uncertain. PMID:25288052

Merlo, Gregory; Page, Katie; Ratcliffe, Julie; Halton, Kate; Graves, Nicholas

2014-10-01

163

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes  

Science.gov (United States)

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.

Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

164

Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

Patrizia Berto

2008-06-01

165

Seismic risk analysis and decisions for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seismic risk analysis and associated sensitivity studies constitute a part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program being conducted by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Although seismic risks are an important contributor to the total nuclear risk, the occurence of earthquake-related seismic phenomena is low. Safety decisions involving seismic hazards must be made, however. This paper briefly described several categories of decisions that can be made using seismic risk analysis. While risk analysis does not provide all the information required for these decisions, it is a useful tool in that it provides additional information for the decision-making process. We anticipate a growing interest in the use of seismic risk analysis in nuclear safety evaluations. (orig.)

166

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE  

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

167

Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

168

[[Economic analysis of marriage: survey and reconsideration  

Science.gov (United States)

This article is concerned with the economic analysis of marriage and is based on a review of the relevant literature. A basic household production function model is described that defines the partial equilibrium condition of a couple and a single person. The existence of public goods, or joint consumption goods, and changes in the shadow price of commodities are shown to explain the difference between being married or single. The theory of bargaining is used to compare individuals and households. Consideration is also given to the theory of job search to examine marriage timing, the theory of general equilibrium, and the theory of optimal assignments. The author concludes that the existing economic literature does not adequately deal with either the timing of marriage or future uncertainty concerning marriage. PMID:12314554

Matsushita, K

1986-10-01

169

Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

170

A graphical tool for the decision analysis of installing an industrial heat exchanger  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article presents a new method of decision analysis for the installation of a heat exchanger destined for recovering part of the thermal waste of an industrial production system in order to improve its energy and economic performances. This method is based essentially on the discussion of the following criteria: the pay back period, the return on investment rate and the optimal amortization period only by considering the operating parameters of the production system and market`s economic data. It is important to mention that this new method can be extended to different energy converting systems such as: Boilers, heat pumps,...(authors). 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs.

Gaabab, A.; Jeday, M.R. [Ecole Nationale d`Ingenieurs, Gabes (Tunisia)

1994-12-31

171

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

172

The economic-energy-environmental policy problem: An application of the interactive multiobjective decision method for Chungbuk Province  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A distinguishing feature of decision making in the public sector is the conflicts between various objectives or priorities. Harmonized decision strategies are required to reconcile the competing values in the decision process. The decision strategies should support the decision maker to make sense out of conflicting values, goals or objectives and to arrive at a wise decision. The interactive learning procedure, in which multiobjective programming is solved in an interactive context, has been suggested as a method for incorporating the preferences of the decision maker, thereby reaching a satisfactory compromise solution. This paper presents an interactive multiobjective programming method by which three conflicting goals, including the maximization of economic growth, the minimization of environmental pollution and the minimization of energy consumption, are compromised. The method is operational to find a compromise composition of sectoral outputs in the Chungbuk economy. The employment, pollution and energy consumption multipliers, which are required to implement the proposed method, are calculated from the Chungbuk Multiregion Input-Output Model. Then, the impact multipliers are combined with decision variables to form the objective functions of the multiobjective programming model. Four rounds of iteration have been conducted to reach the final compromise solution. The results of model execution show that the current distributions of output over the 12 industrial sectors are far different from the balance allocation pattern generated by the compromise solution. If the current production structure is reorganized in accordance with the final compromise solution, the economic-energy-environmental system of Chungbuk Province will be a more balanced one.

Cho, C.J. [Chongju Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning

1999-06-01

173

Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

2011-12-01

174

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Volodymyr Kharchenko

2011-03-01

175

Decision theoretic analysis of improving epidemic detection.  

Science.gov (United States)

The potentially catastrophic impact of an epidemic specially these due to bioterrorist attack, makes developing effective detection methods essential for public health. Current detection methods trade off reliability of alarms for early detection of outbreaks. The performance of these methods can be improved by disease-specific modeling techniques that take into account the potential costs and effects of an attack to provide optimal warnings and the cost and effectiveness of interventions. We study this optimization problem in the framework of sequential decision making under uncertainty. Our approach relies on estimating the future benefit of true alarms and the costs of false alarms. Using these quantities it identifies optimal decisions regarding the credibility of outputs from a traditional detection method at each point in time. The key contribution of this paper is to apply Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) on outbreak detection methods for improving alarm function in the case of anthrax. We present empirical evidence illustrating that at a fixed specificity, the performance of detection methods with respect to sensitivity and timeliness is improved significantly by utilizing POMDPs in detection of anthrax attacks. PMID:18693857

Izadi, Masoumeh T; Buckeridge, David L

2007-01-01

176

Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

177

Social information and personal interests modulate neural activity during economic decision-making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the present study we employed electrophysiological recordings to investigate the levels of processing at which positive and negative descriptions of other people bias social decision-making in a game in which participants accepted or rejected economic offers. Besides social information, we manipulated the fairness of the assets distribution, whether they were advantageous or not for the participant and the uncertainty of the game context. Results show that a negative description of the interaction partner enhanced the medial frontal negativity (MFN in an additive manner with fairness evaluations. Such description of the partner interacted with personal benefit considerations, showing that this positive or negative information only biased the evaluation of offers when they did not favor the participant. P300 amplitudes were enhanced by advantageous offers, suggesting their heightened motivational significance at later stages of processing. Throughout all stages, neural activity was enhanced with certainty about the personal assignments of the split. These results provide new evidence on the importance of interpersonal information and considerations of self-interests relative to others in decision-making situations.

Anna Moser

2014-02-01

178

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1 Is an economic analysis needed? 2 Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3 If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4 If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5 How complex should the analysis be? 6 How should uncertainty be captured? 7 How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

Jit Mark

2013-01-01

179

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.  

Science.gov (United States)

Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries. PMID:23363734

Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

2013-01-01

180

Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

 
 
 
 
181

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

182

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

183

An Economic Analysis Methodology for Project Evaluation and Programming  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value the economic benefits and costs of highway projects and programs over a multiyear timeframe. This research was conducted to provide the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) with a uniform economic analysis methodology. The developed economic ...

Jiang, Yi; Zhao, Guangyuan; Li, Shuo

2013-01-01

184

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

185

Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users t...

Aleem, Ilyas S.; Hamza Jalal; Aleem, Idris S.; Sheikh, Adeel A.; Mohit Bhandari

2009-01-01

186

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-makin...

Kharchenko, Volodymyr; Shmelova, Tetyana; Sikirda, Yuliya

2011-01-01

187

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

188

Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

Ghassan F. Issa

2009-01-01

189

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

Megan K. O’Brien

2014-07-01

190

SYNTHESIS OF INFORMATION ON EXPERIENCES WITH SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS IN DECISION-MAKING IN AREAS OTHER THAN BIOSAFETY  

OF INFORMATION ON EXPERIENCES WITH SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS IN DECISION-MAKING IN AREAS OTHER THAN BIOSAFETY ...COMMITTEE FOR THE NAGOYA PROTOCOL ON ACCESS TO GENETIC RESOURCES AND THE FAIR AND EQUITABLE SHARING ...Article 10 of the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing

191

The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies  

CERN Document Server

This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

2010-01-01

192

NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical field are developed by the author of this article in the 1980s during the creation of the All-Union Statistical Association. The new paradigm is compared with the old (corresponding to the middle of XX century. Is summarized monographs, textbooks and manuals prepared under the leadership of the author of this paper in the XXI century according to the new paradigm

Orlov A. I.

2014-04-01

193

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

T. P. Karjalainen

2013-07-01

194

Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

195

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links  

Science.gov (United States)

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

2013-01-01

196

Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

2008-11-28

197

Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

198

China Central Area’s Economic Growth Mechanism Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)


Through the regression analysis of the related data collected from 1991 to 2005 in China different economic areas, this paper has indicated the China central area’s economic growth mechanism. The result shows that consumption demand is the dominating factor driving the central area’s economic growth, while the investment demand and the exporting oriented economy have relatively little effects.
Key words: central area’s economic growth, con...

Liu, Ying; Wang, Yang

2007-01-01

199

Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment. 4 refs., 1 fig

200

Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems :Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the avai...

Catrinu, Maria

2006-01-01

 
 
 
 
201

Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the avai...

Catrinu, Maria

2006-01-01

202

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. PMID:20356794

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

203

A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

204

How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

Koçak, Özgecan; Özcan, Serden

2013-01-01

205

Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

Woelbert E

2013-03-01

206

Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum ent...

Yang Dong-Hong; Wang Jing-Si

2013-01-01

207

Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing F = e3.760348 x Q0.571771 x V0.425999 x eu. That is, for the marketing force, Output elasticity of marketing flow and flow rate were determined as 0.571771 and 0.425999.

Yang Dong-Hong

2013-01-01

208

Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between unemployment rate and economic growth. Results: The empirical results reveal that Okun?s law cannot be confirmed for Jordan. Thus, it can be suggested that the lack of economic growth does not explain the unemployment problem in Jordan. Conclusion: The study recommended that economic policies related to demand management would not have an important effect in reducing unemployment rate. Accordingly implementation of economic policies oriented to structural change and reform in the labor market would be more appropriate by policy makers in Jordan.

Fuad M. Kreishan

2011-01-01

209

Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

210

Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

211

Economic feasibility study for wastewater treatment: a cost-benefit analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Water resource management should be made from a multidisciplinary perspective. In this sense, economic research into the design and implementation of policies for the efficient management of water resources has been emphasized by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one of the more widely accepted economic instruments since it is a rational and systematic decision-making support tool. Moreover, the wastewater treatment process has significant associated environmental benefits. However, these benefits are often left uncalculated because they have no market value. In this paper, using the concept of shadow price, a quantification of the environmental benefits derived from wastewater treatment is made. Once the environmental benefits are estimated and the economic costs of the treatment processes are known, a CBA is made for each of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under study. In this way, a useful economic feasibility indicator is obtained for WWTP operation. PMID:20667582

Molinos-Senante, María; Hernández-Sancho, Francesc; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

2010-09-15

212

Career Decisions from the Decider's Perspective  

Science.gov (United States)

The authors used a phenomenological research method to investigate the career decision-making experiences of 17 employed adults. Thematic results from interview data analysis were organized within 3 overarching themes: decisions centered on relational life, decisions centered on personal meaning, and decisions centered on economic realities. Study…

Amundson, Norman E.; Borgen, William A.; Iaquinta, Maria; Butterfield, Lee D.; Koert, Emily

2010-01-01

213

Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

2013-07-01

214

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

215

ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS  

Science.gov (United States)

Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

216

Business Conditions and Economic Analysis: An Experiential Learning Program for Economics Students  

Science.gov (United States)

The authors describe the Business Conditions and Economic Analysis (BCEA) program developed at the University of Richmond. The BCEA program is an experiential learning format for economics students built on the success of student-managed investment funds (SMIF) in finance. In its initial implementation, the BCEA group conducts domestic and global…

Dolan, Robert C.; Stevens, Jerry L.

2006-01-01

217

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

218

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

219

Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks  

CERN Document Server

The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

2004-01-01

220

A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

 
 
 
 
221

Site selection for nuclear plants using fuzzy decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuzzy decision analysis is proposed as a method of site selection for nuclear power plants. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses fuzzy numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in site selection. Fuzzy numbers can take into account the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as site meteorology, population growth, cooling water availability, etc. Fuzzy ranking is achieved using fuzzy arithmetic and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the method. (orig.)

222

Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Decision Support Systems: The Context of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available  This research aimed to examine the main factors that influence the successful adoption of Decision SupportSystems (DSS in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA. It investigated a set of factors which are;System Characteristics (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU & Perceived usefulness (PU, Technical Aspects(information technology infrastructure & information systems interoperability, and Organizational Aspects (topmanagement support (TMS, management style (MS, & organizational structure (OS.A questionnaire was distributed to a sample of (161 respondents to collect primary data, & based on aconvenience sample the response rate was about 79%. Furthermore, the findings were analyzed using theStatistical Package for Social Software (SPSS, with an R2 of 35.3%, linear Multiple Regression analysis revealedthat all research variables have significant effect on successful adoption of DSS.The results indicated that PU & IT infrastructures have a positive & significant influence on the successfuladoption of DSS. Whereas, PEOU, IS interoperability, TMS, MS, & OS have no significant influence on thesuccessful adoption of DSS. Finally, the findings indicated that no significant statistical differences existedbetween respondents’ perceptions towards DSS adoption in terms of their demographic characteristics. Based onthe research findings & conclusions, a number of recommendations & future research suggestions are proposed.

Fairouz Mosleh Aldhmour

2012-01-01

223

Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.  

Science.gov (United States)

This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

2013-01-01

224

Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

Ihsan Yüksel

2012-11-01

225

Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

226

Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

SvenjaSimon

2012-04-01

227

The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making. PMID:20382461

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2010-06-01

228

Economic Analysis of Forestry Policy in England  

Previous economic analyses. ... 3 The rationale for government intervention in \\forestry....................................... 19. 3.1 ..... Environmentally Sensitive Area. EU. \\European Union. FC ... Hedonic Pricing Model. IPD ..... on local economy \\uncertain. 9.

229

Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regr...

Kreishan, Fuad M.

2011-01-01

230

The granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

After the first oil crisis the world’s countries had to face recession caused by the high oil prices, and the role of energy consumption became a core element of economics. Many studies examined (and examine today) connection between energy consumption, economic growth and energy efficiency. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to this topic with an analysis of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth in East-Central Europe.

Sze?p, T. S.

2014-01-01

231

Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test an...

Udude Celina C; Okulegu Bethran Enyim

2012-01-01

232

Economic analysis of geothermal heat source for residential area project  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The article discusses the economic analysis of heat source for residential area project. The energy source is geothermal energy. Every house has its own borehole heat exchanger (BHE) and heat pump in basement. In this system low temperature floor and wall heating was carried out. The economic analysis was performed as a pilot study for real system with all installation needed to runthe system. The analysis has been done using the method of the net present value. In the research the coefficien...

Poberz?nik, Sas?o; Goric?anec, Darko; Krope, Jurij

2012-01-01

233

Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly ...

He?raud, Jean-alain; Ionescu, Oana

2011-01-01

234

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

235

Análise de decisões sobre uso de tecnologia: um estudo no setor de telefonia móvel fundamentado nos axiomas da economia comportamental / Analysis of decisions on the use of technology: a study in the mobile telephone sector grounded in the axioms of behavioral economics  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese A Economia Comportamental, campo que recebeu grandes contribuições de Kahneman e Tversky e que rendeu um prêmio Nobel ao primeiro, é uma abordagem que se tem ocupado em caracterizar e analisar variados aspectos do comportamento decisório humano, descrevendo-o como não plenamente racional. Sua import [...] ância está em questionar a racionalidade da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada, TUE, aceito por décadas como modelo fundamental na economia. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar como as decisões sobre a adoção e uso de equipamentos e serviços apoiados por tecnologia são afetadas pelos aspectos influenciadores da decisão, preconizados por Kahneman e Tversky. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido por meio de experimento adaptado ao contexto do segmento de telefonia móvel, setor esse escolhido pela sua relevância nos últimos anos na economia brasileira. Os dados foram analisados por técnicas de comparação de grupos com variáveis categóricas. Os resultados permitiram evidenciar vários aspectos da não-racionalidade dos decisores conforme apregoado pelos autores originais, especialmente em relação a aspectos contidos na chamada Teoria dos Prospectos (Prospect Theory). A partir das descobertas, pode-se questionar decisões sobre a utilização de tecnologia no nível do indivíduo e organizações, com importantes conseqüências no nível gerencial. Abstract in english Behavioral economics, a field that has received major contributions from Kahneman and Tversky, the former also having received a Nobel prize, is an approach that has focused on a number of aspects of behavior in human decisions, defining their outcomes as not being fully rational. Its main contribut [...] ion was conquered by questioning the so far very well established Utility Theory, a very important basis in economics. This article aims to verify how decisions concerning the adoption and use of information technology are potentially affected by the factors described in Kahneman and Tversky's theory. This was done by means of an experiment adapted to the context of the mobile communications sector, which was chosen due to its economic and social relevance in recent years in Brazil. The data were analyzed by means of categorical group comparison techniques. The results provided evidence of non-rational behavior amongst decision makers as proposed by original authors, mainly those regarding aspects of the Prospect Theory. With this evidence, it is possible to question a number of aspects of individual and organizational decisions involving the use of information technology use, with important implications at the managerial levels.

Alexandre, Cappellozza; Otavio Prospero, Sanchez.

1078-10-01

236

Qualitative Analysis of Partially-observable Markov Decision Processes  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We study observation-based strategies for partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with omega-regular objectives. An observation-based strategy relies on partial information about the history of a play, namely, on the past sequence of observations. We consider the qualitative analysis problem: given a POMDP with an omega-regular objective, whether there is an observation-based strategy to achieve the objective with probability~1 (almost-sure winning), or with ...

Chatterjee, Krishnendu; Doyen, Laurent; Henzinger, Thomas A.

2009-01-01

237

Integrating multiple criteria decision analysis in participatory forest planning  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Forest planning in a participatory context often involves multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests. A promising approach for handling these complex situations is to integrate participatory planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The objective of this paper is to analyze strengths and weaknesses of such an integrated approach, focusing on how the use of MCDA has influenced the participatory process. The paper outlines a model for a participatory MCDA process with five ...

Nordstro?m, Eva-maria; Eriksson, Ljusk Ola; O?hman, Karin

2010-01-01

238

Subject economic thinking as an economic good: analysis of the phenomenon in the context of the conditions of C. Menger  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Understanding of economic thinking in terms of economic good creates the supposition for a detailed study of this phenomenon to enhance the individual socio-economic competitiveness of human, improvement of approaches to the economic education, setting priorities and mechanisms to improve the competitiveness of the national economy as a whole. In this connection, the analysis is made and interpretation of the phenomenon of subject economic thinking as an economic good is presented.

Bogunov Leonid Aleksandrovich

2012-06-01

239

Subject economic thinking as an economic good: analysis of the phenomenon in the context of the conditions of C. Menger  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Understanding of economic thinking in terms of economic good creates the supposition for a detailed study of this phenomenon to enhance the individual socio-economic competitiveness of human, improvement of approaches to the economic education, setting priorities and mechanisms to improve the competitiveness of the national economy as a whole. In this connection, the analysis is made and interpretation of the phenomenon of subject economic thinking as an economic good is presented.

Bogunov Leonid Aleksandrovich

2012-01-01

240

Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.  

Science.gov (United States)

The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on the map; this may suggest a need to strengthen the decision-making processes by engaging these stakeholders more centrally and earlier. PMID:22513730

Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

2012-05-01

 
 
 
 
241

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with h ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

242

Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

243

Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

2009-09-01

244

Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

2012-01-01

245

INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to gi...

Miao, Cheng-lin; Feng, Jun-wen; Bai, Ju

2007-01-01

246

Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

247

The sensitivity analysis of the economic and economic statistical designs of the synthetic X¯ chart  

Science.gov (United States)

The economic and economic statistical designs allow the practitioner to implement the control chart in an economically optimal manner. For the economic design, the optimal chart parameters are obtained to minimize the cost, while for the economic statistical design, additional constraints in terms of the average run length is imposed. However, these designs involve the estimation of quite a number of input parameters. Some of these input parameters are difficult to estimate accurately. Thus, a sensitivity analysis is required in order to identify which parameters need to be estimated accurately, and which requires just a rough estimation. This study focuses on the significance of 11 input parameters toward the optimal cost and average run lengths of the synthetic ¯X chart. The significant input parameters are identified through a two-level fractional factorial design, which allows interaction effects to be identified. An analysis of variance is performed to obtain the P-values by using the Minitab software. The significant input parameters and interactions on the optimal cost and average run lengths are identified based on a 5% significance level. The results of this study show that the input parameters which are significant towards the economic design may not be significant for the economic statistical design, and vice versa. This study also shows that there are quite a number of significant interaction effects, which may mask the significance of the main effects.

Yeong, Wai Chung; Khoo, Michael Boon Chong; Chong, Jia Kit; Lim, Shun Jinn; Teoh, Wei Lin

2014-12-01

248

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

249

Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

Fengqiao, Yan

2009-01-01

250

Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

Antonios Adamopoulos

2010-07-01

251

On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)K)

252

Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

253

An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

254

Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO South Africa | Language: English Abstract in english Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability r [...] isk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and experimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

Li, Xun-Gui; Wei, Xia; Huang, Qiang.

255

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

Marius-Corneliu MARINA?

2010-11-01

256

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

2011-04-01

257

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science  

Science.gov (United States)

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie

2015-01-01

258

Addressing socio-economic and environmental impacts in sewer networks' rehabilitation decision making tools  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Rehabilitation of sewer networks has to serve various objectives, both in terms of present general performance, and in terms of long term sustainability. Part of these stakes are external to the sewerage utility operation, such as social impacts of sewer failures, or social impacts of works. These external impacts are to some extend considered in real life decisions, and should therefore also be taken into account in decision support systems. CARE-S project (2003-05 EU 5th Framework Program),...

Werey, C.; Larabi, Z.; Rozan, A.

2009-01-01

259

Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behav...

Courtney MR; Spivey C; Km, Daniel

2014-01-01

260

The effects of background music and sound in economic decision making: Evidence from a laboratory experiment  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper experimentally studies the effects of background music and sound on the preference of the decision makers for rewards in pairwise intertemporal choice tasks and lottery choice tasks. The participants took part in the current experiment, involving four treatments: (1) the familiar music treatment; (2) the unfamiliar music treatment; (3) the noise treatment and (4) the no music treatment. The experimental results confirm that background noise affects human performance in decision mak...

Fujikawa, Takemi; Kobayashi, Yohei

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
261

Decision theory with imperfect information  

CERN Document Server

Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combi

Aliev, Rafik A

2014-01-01

262

Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

2008-01-01

263

The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at thxclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is

264

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Ag through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

265

Detecting road maps for capacity utilization decisions by Clustering Analysis and CHAID Decision Trees.  

Science.gov (United States)

The aims of this study are to provide a standard CUR value, to determine financial and organizational factors which affect the capacity utilization and develop road maps for increasing capacity utilization. To reach these aims by an objective method, we used data mining method that discovers hidden and useful pattern in a large amount of data. Two different method of data mining were used in two stages for this study. In first step, standard value of CUR was determined by K-means Clustering Analysis. CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm as a second method was implemented for determination of impact factors that provided steps for road maps. The study was concerned Turkish Ministry of Health public hospitals. 592 hospitals were covered and financial and operational data of the year 2004 were used in the study. Finally two different road maps were developed and suggestions were made according the results of the study. PMID:20703899

Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

2010-08-01

266

DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals  

Science.gov (United States)

Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

267

The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.  

Science.gov (United States)

The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts. PMID:20146758

Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

2010-01-01

268

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

269

Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

Klein, Sharon J W

2013-12-17

270

Sensitivity analysis for handling uncertainty in an economic evaluation.  

Science.gov (United States)

To meet updated international standards, this paper revises the previous Thai guidelines for conducting sensitivity analyses as part of the decision analysis model for health technology assessment. It recommends both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to handle uncertainty of the model parameters, which are best represented graphically. Two new methodological issues are introduced-a threshold analysis of medicines' unit prices for fulfilling the National Lists of Essential Medicines' requirements and the expected value of information for delaying decision-making in contexts where there are high levels of uncertainty. Further research is recommended where parameter uncertainty is significant and where the cost of conducting the research is not prohibitive. PMID:24964700

Limwattananon, Supon

2014-05-01

271

MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

VENUGOPAL .B. S

2013-01-01

272

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC  

Science.gov (United States)

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

273

STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

Vazakidis Athanasios

2012-01-01

274

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so called naive scenario and a risk-averse scenario, are evaluated in this case study.

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

275

Primary economic analysis of NHR using in air-conditioning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The authors describes the principle of NHR using in air-conditioning. According to the practical situation of air-conditioning in big cities in South China. An economic analysis of NHR using in air-conditioning is carried out by means of the economic evaluation method which is popular at present. The scale of power, price and cost of heat energy for the NHR have been obtained. Comparing the economical aspects of nuclear energy with that of the conventional air-conditioning method, it shows that the nuclear air-conditioning has a bright future

276

Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives  

Science.gov (United States)

The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

Faggini, Marisa

2014-12-01

277

Groundwater Management for Agriculture and Nature : an Economic Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Key words: desiccation of nature, economics of water management, groundwater extraction, groundwater level management, ecohydrology, agriculture, policy instruments.As a result of declining groundwater levels, nature in the Netherlands is suffering from desiccation. Since measures taken to raise groundwater levels in order to restore nature often lead to unintended wet damage to crops in adjacent farmland, an economic analysis to determine optimal solutions is required. The fundamental factor...

Hellegers, P.

2001-01-01

278

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgari...

Bencheva, Nelly; Ligeon, Carel; Delikostadinov, Stanko; Puppala, Naveen; Jolly, Curtis

2008-01-01

279

PIEteR: a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly experimental sugar beet fields. Its prototype, which only simulated root and sugar yields, was selected through a test on the performance of four models and extended with a number of parameters: sugar content, (K + Na) an...

Smit, A. B.

1996-01-01

280

Health economics in drug development: efficient research to inform healthcare funding decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

In order to decide whether a new treatment should be used in patients, a robust estimate of efficacy and toxicity is no longer sufficient. As a result of increasing healthcare costs across the globe healthcare payers and providers now seek estimates of cost-effectiveness as well. Most trials currently being designed still only consider the need for prospective efficacy and toxicity data during the development life-cycle of a new intervention. Hence the cost-effectiveness estimates are inevitably less precise than the clinical data on which they are based. Methods based on decision theory are being developed by health economists that can contribute to the design of clinical trials in such a way that they can more effectively lead to better informed drug funding decisions on the basis of cost-effectiveness in addition to clinical outcomes. There is an opportunity to apply these techniques prospectively in the design of future clinical trials. This article describes the problems encountered by those responsible for drug reimbursement decisions as a consequence of the current drug development pathway. The potential for decision theoretic methods to help overcome these problems is introduced and potential obstacles in implementation are highlighted. PMID:20655197

Hall, Peter S; McCabe, Christopher; Brown, Julia M; Cameron, David A

2010-10-01

 
 
 
 
281

Qualitative Analysis of Partially-Observable Markov Decision Processes  

Science.gov (United States)

We study observation-based strategies for partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with parity objectives. An observation-based strategy relies on partial information about the history of a play, namely, on the past sequence of observations. We consider qualitative analysis problems: given a POMDP with a parity objective, decide whether there exists an observation-based strategy to achieve the objective with probability 1 (almost-sure winning), or with positive probability (positive winning). Our main results are twofold. First, we present a complete picture of the computational complexity of the qualitative analysis problem for POMDPs with parity objectives and its subclasses: safety, reachability, Büchi, and coBüchi objectives. We establish several upper and lower bounds that were not known in the literature. Second, we give optimal bounds (matching upper and lower bounds) for the memory required by pure and randomized observation-based strategies for each class of objectives.

Chatterjee, Krishnendu; Doyen, Laurent; Henzinger, Thomas A.

282

Qualitative Analysis of Partially-observable Markov Decision Processes  

CERN Document Server

We study observation-based strategies for partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with omega-regular objectives. An observation-based strategy relies on partial information about the history of a play, namely, on the past sequence of observations. We consider the qualitative analysis problem: given a POMDP with an omega-regular objective, whether there is an observation-based strategy to achieve the objective with probability~1 (almost-sure winning), or with positive probability (positive winning). Our main results are twofold. First, we present a complete picture of the computational complexity of the qualitative analysis of POMDP s with parity objectives (a canonical form to express omega-regular objectives) and its subclasses. Our contribution consists in establishing several upper and lower bounds that were not known in literature. Second, we present optimal bounds (matching upper and lower bounds) on the memory required by pure and randomized observation-based strategies for the qualitati...

Chatterjee, Krishnendu; Henzinger, Thomas A

2009-01-01

283

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

284

Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

285

Decision analysis for designing marine protected areas for multiple species with uncertain fishery status.  

Science.gov (United States)

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are growing in popularity as a conservation tool, and there are increasing calls for additional MPAs. Meta-analyses indicate that most MPAs successfully meet the minimal goal of increasing biomass inside the MPA, while some do not, leaving open the important question of what makes MPAs successful. An often-overlooked aspect of this problem is that the success of fishery management outside MPA boundaries (i.e., whether a population is overfished) affects how well MPAs meet both conservation goals (e.g., increased biomass) and economic goals (e.g., minimal negative effects on fishery yield). Using a simple example of a system with homogeneous habitat and periodically spaced MPAs, we show that, as area in MPAs increases, (1) conservation value (biomass) may initially be zero, implying no benefit, then at some point increases monotonically; and (2) fishery yield may be zero, then increases monotonically to a maximum beyond which further increase in MPA area causes yield to decline. Importantly, the points at which these changes in slope occur vary among species and depend on management outside MPAs. Decision makers considering the effects of a potential system of MPAs on multiple species are confronted by a number of such cost-benefit curves, and it is usually impossible to maximize benefits and minimize costs for all species. Moreover, the precise shape of each curve is unknown due to uncertainty regarding the fishery status of each species. Here we describe a decision-analytic approach that incorporates existing information on fishery stock status to present decision makers with the range of likely outcomes of MPA implementation. To summarize results from many species whose overfishing status is uncertain, our decision-analysis approach involves weighted averages over both overfishing uncertainty and species. In an example from an MPA decision process in California, USA, an optimistic projection of future fishery management success led to recommendation of fewer and smaller MPAs than that derived from a more pessimistic projection of future management success. This example illustrates how information on fishery status can be used to project potential outcomes of MPA implementation within a decision analysis framework and highlights the need for better population information. PMID:20945757

White, J Wilson; Botsford, Louis W; Moffitt, Elizabeth A; Fischer, Douglas T

2010-09-01

286

Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management  

Science.gov (United States)

The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

2014-09-01

287

ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that the management cannot be based on intuition and routine but on a scientific analysis, on a thorough knowledge of the existing situation, as well as on the identification of vulnerabilities and opportunities for development. In order to promote a rational policy concerning business growth and achieving economic and financial satisfactory results, the company’s management grants a special importance to the financial diagnosis. The support of financial analysis is the balance sheet that allows developing financial diagnosis on the financial equilibrium conditions and creditworthiness, objectives that allow the evaluation of the independence of the firm and its market value.

Daniela Cristina Solomon

2014-01-01

288

Socio-economic Condition of Child Worker of Bangladesh in Their Adulthood: An Econometric Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study has mainly focused on the current socio-economic condition of those people who were child labor in their childhood. In this study, economic indicators are income and employment status. On the other hand, level of education, health status and role in case of decision making in the society are studied as social indicators. According to this study, socio-economic condition of child workers in their adulthood is not very satisfactory. In this research work, we have used Linear Probability Model (LPM and Weighted Least Square (WLS regression analysis to make comparison of current socio-economic status between people who were child labor in their childhood and those who were not child worker in past. We have found that person who was not child worker in early stage of his/her life have higher probability to enjoy better socio-economic condition than that of person who worked as child worker in past. In fact, we have identified that a children who is working as a child worker has 0.61 or 61% probability to have low standard of living in his/her future life.

Syed Imran Ali Meerza

2011-01-01

289

TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

2009-09-01

290

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.  

Science.gov (United States)

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches. PMID:23823331

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

2013-01-01

291

Economic analysis of solar energy systems using spreadsheets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper the method employed for a detailed economic analysis of a solar energy system is presented. A spreadsheet computer program is used as a tool for the economic analysis because the general format of such a program is a table with cells which can contain values or formulae and the fact that they incorporate many build-in functions. System optimisation is also presented through an example for a hot water system. Both of them show that the method presented here is both accurate and fast. Although the method presented here deals with solar systems, it is applicable to all energy producing systems and consequently to all renewable energy systems. (Author)

292

Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC) - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico a...

Manvinder Singh Pahwa; Amanpreet Singh Chopra

2013-01-01

293

Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We constructed a decision-analytic and cost-minimization model to compare monthly maternal serological screening for congenital toxoplasmosis, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical ...

Stillwaggon, Eileen; Carrier, Christopher S.; Sautter, Mari; Mcleod, Rima

2011-01-01

294

Neural dynamics of social tie formation in economic decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

The disposition for prosocial conduct, which contributes to cooperation as arising during social interaction, requires cortical network dynamics responsive to the development of social ties, or care about the interests of specific interaction partners. Here, we formulate a dynamic computational model that accurately predicted how tie formation, driven by the interaction history, influences decisions to contribute in a public good game. We used model-driven functional MRI to test the hypothesis that brain regions key to social interactions keep track of dynamics in tie strength. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex tracked the individual's public good contributions. Activation in the bilateral posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), and temporo-parietal junction was modulated parametrically by the dynamically developing social tie-as estimated by our model-supporting a role of these regions in social tie formation. Activity in these two regions further reflected inter-individual differences in tie persistence and sensitivity to behavior of the interaction partner. Functional connectivity between pSTS and mPFC activations indicated that the representation of social ties is integrated in the decision process. These data reveal the brain mechanisms underlying the integration of interaction dynamics into a social tie representation which in turn influenced the individual's prosocial decisions. PMID:25338630

Bault, Nadège; Pelloux, Benjamin; Fahrenfort, Johannes J; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van Winden, Frans

2014-10-22

295

Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics. PMID:25063436

Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

2015-01-01

296

Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

A de Waal

2007-12-01

297

Nuclear proliferation in the Third World: an analysis of decision making in Indiana and Pakistan  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The causes of nuclear proliferation in the Third World are analyzed by examining the motives and forces that went into the nuclear decisions of India and Pakistan. A comprehensive framework is used that consists of five levels of analysis: international, societal, governmental, bureaucratic, and individual factors. The study examines how various potential motives that might impel a nation to acquire nuclear weapons operated through the different levels of analysis. It is concluded that the security motive was the primary determinant in each case as opposed to other motives such as desire for international status or economic considerations. However, security motives were joined by other values and constraints. Regional conflict combined with the lack of a superpower guarantee of security to persuade both countries to pursue nuclear weapons. Such domestic factors as the type of political systems, public opinion, and mass media seemed to play a very limited role in the decisions, although a larger role in India than in Pakistan. Finally, strong individual leadership was a relatively powerful determinant of policy in both countries

298

To What Extent Educational Planning and Policy Decision ought to Be Guided by Economic Considerations – A Case Study on Recent Educational Developments of Hong Kong  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The ascendance to popularity of the liberal ideologies and the concepts of political economy of education will be put forward as the root cause for an increasing subordination of education objectives to national economic goals. Through a case study of the educational development of Hong Kong, this paper will evaluate the extent to which educational planning and policy decision should be guided by economic considerations. Although the rapid economic growth of Hong Kong and the rapid expansion of its education system in the past decades took place in parallel, there is no evidence that Hong Kong’s economic success is directly brought about by its education. It will be concluded that apart from economic contributions, education has its own intrinsic values. While economic considerations are useful for planning and policymaking at a macro level, it may not be appropriate to indiscriminately apply economic principles in an intrusive way to direct the priorities of institution management and classroom teaching.

Margaret Wai Ki LO

2010-10-01

299

The Effect of Perceived Regional Accents on Individual Economic Behavior: A Lab Experiment on Linguistic Performance, Cognitive Ratings and Economic Decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one’s own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant’s home region—the in-group opponent –, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

2015-01-01

300

Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained

 
 
 
 
301

The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth  

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Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

Ferdous Alam

2011-01-01

302

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SUGAR BEAT PRODUCTION  

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Full Text Available Croatian quota of 180.000 tones of sugar beet per year is approved for export to EU countries. For that amount of sugar it is necessary to produce about 30.000 ha of sugar beet. Sugar beet production requires deep and fertile soils, and crop rotation requirement is at least five year. Therefore, Slavonia and Baranya do t have enough areas under sugar beet. An additional problem is so called “sugar reform” applied by EUaiming to decrease price of sugar produced from sugar beet root and its equalization to sugar cane price. Consequences of this movement will be decreasing of sugar beet domestic redemption price. In that way, sugar beet production will be increased only within producers with relative good soils, suitable mechanization and knowledge. The research shows the results of production sugar beet on family farm of Vukovar – SrijemCounty on 21 ha. Technical and technological process includes 35 working operations spending 26.9 hours/ha of mechanization and 65.8 hours/ha of labor. Total costs amount to 15.947,05 kn/ha. Producers paid for seed 1.405,44 kn/ha or 9.4% and for 1.100 kg of fertilizers 2.217,50 kn/ha or 14.8% of total costs. Significant values are also costs for plant protection (9 l/ha being 15.2% of total cost. Mechanization fee is 5.070,96 kn/ha with share of 33.9% what indicates that this is the most important element in total costs, partly as a consequence of increased distance between arable land and farm. Total value of production is 20.759,59 kn/ha, with yields of the root (70.30 t/ha and government subsidies. Amount of 1.068,82 kg root is producedper hour of human labour; while 0.94 hour of human labour is necessary per tone of products. Economic coefficient is 1.36. Profit of 36.67 kn is achieved on 100 invested kunas in production process.

Jozo Kanisek

2008-06-01

303

Partially observable Markov decision processes and performance sensitivity analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

The sensitivity-based optimization of Markov systems has become an increasingly important area. From the perspective of performance sensitivity analysis, policy-iteration algorithms and gradient estimation methods can be directly obtained for Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this correspondence, the sensitivity-based optimization is extended to average reward partially observable MDPs (POMDPs). We derive the performance-difference and performance-derivative formulas of POMDPs. On the basis of the performance-derivative formula, we present a new method to estimate the performance gradients. From the performance-difference formula, we obtain a sufficient optimality condition without the discounted reward formulation. We also propose a policy-iteration algorithm to obtain a nearly optimal finite-state-controller policy. PMID:19022734

Li, Yanjie; Yin, Baoqun; Xi, Hongsheng

2008-12-01

304

Analysis of the Nature of Economic Growth of Slovenian Economy  

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Full Text Available The aim of this article is to outline the economic growth for the Slovenian economy between 1992--2001. Our major interest is the nature of the past growth. Was it intensive or extensive? On the basis of four groups of different arguments we were expecting that there would be a predominantly extensive economic growth. In order to answer this question we developed an empirical study, which follows the conventional neo-classical growth accounting framework. First we estimated three mathematical specifications of aggregate production functions. The analysis was than conducted through an econometric analysis of these estimates. Using these results we developed the growth accounting equation, which allowed us to compute the contributions of each particular input (physical capital, human capital and technical progress to output growth. On base of our received empirical results we are able to state, that the past economic growth of the Slovenian economy was significantly extensive.

Matjaz Novak

2003-09-01

305

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

306

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

307

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

1996-12-01

308

What do Italian consumers know about Economic Data? An analysis based on the ISTAT Consumers Survey  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Standard theory describes economic decisions as the result of optimising behaviour of well-informed economic agents. However, whether citizens are really well informed on economic data is still highly disputed. In order to investigate on this issue, since 2007 the Italian Consumers survey has incorporated a number of questions on the degree of knowledge about economic data. Surveys results show that the level of knowledge of Italian consumers is relatively low; moreover, knowledge seems to si...

Giovannini, Enrico; Malgarini, Marco

2012-01-01

309

Research of Public Policy Decision-Making Based on System Analysis Method  

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Full Text Available System analysis method is an important part of Marxist methodology, and the effective technical support tools of public policy decisions. The article illustrates the meaning and basic principle of system analysis, and based on it, this paper discusses the method of system analysis on public policy decision-making.

Mei LI

2014-04-01

310

Research of Public Policy Decision-Making Based on System Analysis Method  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

System analysis method is an important part of Marxist methodology, and the effective technical support tools of public policy decisions. The article illustrates the meaning and basic principle of system analysis, and based on it, this paper discusses the method of system analysis on public policy decision-making.

Li, Mei

2014-01-01

311

The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today t...

Popa, Raluca Andreea; Cra?ciun, Matei

2011-01-01

312

Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues) influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior ...

Woelbert E; Goebel R

2013-01-01

313

Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986  

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Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

2013-12-01

314

An Analysis on the Relative Efficiency of the Infrastructure Investment in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt Based on DEA Method  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The infrastructure construction is playing an important role in the development of Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt, whereas a calculation and analysis on the relative efficiency of its 6 cities’ infrastructure investment will offer a useful reference to the decision on the future investment scale and structure of this area’s infrastructure. Based on DEA model and from the viewpoint of constant scale return and changing scale return, this paper calculates the comprehensive rela- tive effici...

Yinghui Xiang; Tao Wen; Yachen Liu

2012-01-01

315

Logit analysis of socio-economic factors influencing people to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This study analyzes the socio-economic factors that influence people’s decision to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana. Using a well structured interview schedule, a random sample of 98 people from Elmina in the central region of Ghana was selected for the study. Results from the descriptive statistics analysis of respondents identified fishing as a family business, minimum skills requirement and ready market for fish demand as factors that mo...

Acquah Henry D.; Abunyuwah Isaac

2011-01-01

316

Exploring Decision Maker Attitudes Towards Urban Development using Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The use of geographic information systems and MCDA techniques in identifying the most suitable areas for a particular use is a common method utilised within many planning and environmental topic areas. However despite this usage, the planning industry is as yet to realise the potential of combining the two methods in order to develop a more robust methodology aiding better decision making. This paper implements the fuzzy spatial decision model Analytical Hierarchy Process - Ordered Weighted A...

Bradley, Matthew

2013-01-01

317

Economic analysis of low-temperature nuclear district heating  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic analysis and comparison between nuclear energy and conventional energy in district heating systems are made. The low temperature heat energy from nuclear fuel produces the great economy of the primary energy, because the energy overall utilization of nuclear heating and coal fired power is higher than that of mode of nuclear power and coal fired heating

318

Component Analysis of the Economic Activity of Small Enterprises  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The article discusses the use of principal component analysis for the study of economic activity of small enterprises. Reveal the hidden patterns of development of small business. An interpretation of the main components. A classification of macro regions and clusters are allocated.

Derkachenko, Valentin N.; Asanina, Daria A.

2013-01-01

319

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE VERSION 2.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

320

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 2.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

 
 
 
 
321

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 2.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and...

322

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 3.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

323

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL - VERSION 2.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and...

324

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 3.0  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

325

Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.  

Science.gov (United States)

The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

326

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND THE INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY ACCOUNTANCY IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSTANTIATING THE FINANCIAL DECISIONS AT THE LEVEL OF AN ECONOMICAL ENTITY  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The present paper outlines the relationship that exists between the financial management and the accountancyscience regarding decision making mostly of financial order.The paper called “The relationship between financial management and the information supplied byaccountancy in the process of substantiating the financial decisions at the level of an economical entity ” is structuredinto three parts, starting from an general view of what financial management is, followed by the information ...

Chirita, Irina; Grigoras? -ichim, Claudia

2009-01-01

327

Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

IngoVernaleken

2014-03-01

328

Economic Analysis of Corrosion Control In Petroleum Refineries  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Economic analysis of corrosion problems and their prevention or control was found to gain very little importance in the last 10 years according to the published work surveyed. This article surveys the most important work in this area and shows the magnitude of corrosion problems as cost analysis measures indicate. It also refers to the need for continuous research in this field of vital importance in the coming era. Data from several sources have been tabulated to highlight the magnitud...

Salem, A. B.

1988-01-01

329

Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.  

Science.gov (United States)

Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule. PMID:15020003

Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

2004-05-01

330

Economic Analysis of Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in the Netherlands.  

Science.gov (United States)

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious pig disease that causes economic losses and impaired animal welfare. Improving the surveillance system for CSF can help to ensure early detection of the virus, thereby providing a better initial situation for controlling the disease. Economic analysis is required to compare the benefits of improved surveillance with the costs of implementing a more intensive system. This study presents a comprehensive economic analysis of CSF surveillance in the Netherlands, taking into account the specialized structure of Dutch pig production, differences in virulence of CSF strains and a complete list of possible surveillance activities. The starting point of the analysis is the current Dutch surveillance system (i.e. the default surveillance-setup scenario), including the surveillance activities 'daily clinical observation by the farmer', 'veterinarian inspection after a call', 'routine veterinarian inspection', 'pathology in AHS', 'PCR on tonsil in AHS', 'PCR on grouped animals in CVI' and 'confirmatory PCR by NVWA'. Alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were proposed by adding 'routine serology in slaughterhouses', 'routine serology on sow farms' and 'PCR on rendered animals'. The costs and benefits for applying the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were evaluated by comparing the annual mitigated economic losses because of intensified CSF surveillance with the annual additional surveillance costs. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios with 'PCR on rendered animals' are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the scenarios with 'routine serology in slaughterhouses' or 'routine serology on sow farms' are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the moderately virulent CSF strain indicate that the current surveillance system in the Netherlands is adequate. From an economic perspective, there is little to be gained from intensifying surveillance. PMID:25213149

Guo, X; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Loeffen, W; Saatkamp, H W

2014-09-12

331

Tactical techno-economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood waste fuels in a heating plant  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, we investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made using three different energy efficiency and forest technology rates. Then the decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels (below-ground on a tactical decision-making horizon. With this aim, fuel data of three forest fuel procurement teams were collected for 3 months. The strategic fuel procurement decisions were adjusted to the changed decision environment based on a tactical techno-economic analysis using forest technology rates. The optimal energy product and fuel mixtures were solved by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

Palander Teijo

2012-01-01

332

A new decision model for economic evaluation of novel therapies for HCV  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has given the license to two new direct-acting antiviral: sofosbuvir and simeprevir. The evidence provided by the studies, reported a high rate of SVR even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This and other innovative elements are potentially adept at changing the entire natural course of HCV. However, the dramatic prevalence rates of HCV observed in Italy, and the high prices that are expected to be required by the pharmaceutical industry, raises some critical issues about how to regulate access to such drugs. The objective of this article is to present a new decision model for the evaluation of novel therapies for HCV. This model is intended to provide a tool for the decision-maker that seeks to address the main issues related to the introduction of HCV new treatments. The model that we have structured follows the classic Bayesian approach, using data from reference literature for staging the action of treatments depending on the level of fibrosis (F0, F1, F2, F3, F4. The model is designed to consider patients with all genotypes and allows to make comparisons between innovative and traditional therapies (dual, triple, IFN free, PI combinations, etc., for both experienced and naïve patients. In addition, the model is used to simulate mixed cohorts of patients, representing a population with HCV with different levels of fibrosis and different genotypes. To show the potential of the model, we created some simple scenarios assuming different levels of SVR and pricing. The results of our model show that, even assuming an SVR rate of 100%, the administration of new treatments for HCV subjects F1 / 2 has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio not sustainable. In contrast, for the subjects F3 and F4, low incremental SVR rates and an incremental cost of the innovative therapy of € 40,000 would be cost effective. The added value of this model is its versatility and applicability to diverse assessment needs. In addition, the model offers an opportunity for reflection even to the industry, which in the years to come will have to develop strategies for entering the market and offer sustainable prices for decision-makers and at the same time remunerate the investment in research and development consistently with the expectations of the shareholders.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v15i3.945

Matteo Ruggeri

2014-09-01

333

Forecast of the Economic- Financial Performance Based on Diagnostic Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available To ensure efficient financial management is necessary to achieve the forecast of economic and financial performance on the basis of diagnostic analysis, approach most often developed starting from the prediction of turnover and also necessary for shaping an organization's prospects. In financial management, the turnover’s increasing is considered an objective in itself, being interpreted as generating increased market share, profit. Sales condition therefore the entire activity of a company, their variation being considered the main risk factor of enterprise’s economic and financial performance and the staring point in their forecast.

Daniela Solomon

2010-12-01

334

Techno-economic analysis of compressed air energy storage systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The continuous escalation of intermittent energy added to the grid and forecasts of peaking power demand increments are rising the effort spent for evaluating the economic feasibility of energy storages. The aim of this research is the techno-economic analysis of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) systems, capable of storing large quantities of off-peak electric energy in the form of high-pressure air, as an ?energy stock? which allows the production of high-profit on-peak electricity w...

Bozzolani, Emanuele

2010-01-01

335

Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods will generally increase labor supply, while relatively more technological advance for existing goods will reduce labor supply to the market. These impacts are seen to provide insights into Rostow’s stages of growth. Short run variations in the relative importance of the two types of technological change are seen to imply unpredictable business cycle behavior of the type we observe. The welfare implications of national income accounting that fails to consider changes in leisure are discussed.

Philip E. Graves

2011-07-01

336

A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

Bier, Asmeret Brooke

2014-01-01

337

Economic cost analysis in cancer management and its relevance today  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The global cancer burden has shown a distinct shift in the last two decades and its financial impact can be large, even among patients living in high resource countries, with comprehensive health insurance policies. It is hard to imagine its impact on patients of developing countries where insurance policies exist infrequently and often cost becomes the greatest barrier in availing cancer treatment. It is recognized that these costs include the direct cost of disease treatment and care, indirect costs accrued by the patient and the family, and economic losses to the society as a whole. Economic cost analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis has emerged as a basic tool in the evaluation of health-care practices. To date, these cost data have been collected only sporadically, even in the most developed countries, and there is a great need for incorporating economic cost assessment practices in developing countries, so that patients and their families can access the care adequately. The current review has been done using pubmed and medline search with keywords like cancer, cost-analysis, cost-effectiveness, economic burden, medical cost, etc.

Sharma K

2009-01-01

338

Economic cost analysis in cancer management and its relevance today.  

Science.gov (United States)

The global cancer burden has shown a distinct shift in the last two decades and its financial impact can be large, even among patients living in high resource countries, with comprehensive health insurance policies. It is hard to imagine its impact on patients of developing countries where insurance policies exist infrequently and often cost becomes the greatest barrier in availing cancer treatment. It is recognized that these costs include the direct cost of disease treatment and care, indirect costs accrued by the patient and the family, and economic losses to the society as a whole. Economic cost analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis has emerged as a basic tool in the evaluation of health-care practices. To date, these cost data have been collected only sporadically, even in the most developed countries, and there is a great need for incorporating economic cost assessment practices in developing countries, so that patients and their families can access the care adequately. The current review has been done using PubMed and MEDLINE search with keywords like cancer, cost-analysis, cost-effectiveness, economic burden, medical cost, etc. PMID:19574668

Sharma, K; Das, S; Mukhopadhyay, A; Rath, G K; Mohanti, B K

2009-01-01

339

Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are analyzed the relations between different quantitative aspects of the buying decision and the impulsive buying reactions of the consumer.

Corina PEL?U

2012-12-01

340

SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that traditional single gene lists do not, particularly in areas such as interaction discovery.

Yoon Kihoon

2010-12-01

 
 
 
 
341

Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

342

Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

2003-06-01

343

Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

344

The flow networks approach to decision analysis in construction industry  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The application of flow networks on the example of the types of works distribution as well as the distribution of construction workers qualification structure according to particular types of buildings is presented in the paper. The flow networks considered were proposed by Zdzislaw Pawlak and are the tools for the new mathematical models related to the information regarding flow explorations in decision algorithms. The decision algorithms consist of series of decision rules for each particul...

?irovi? Goran; Plamenac Darko

2007-01-01

345

Quantitative Analysis of Group Decision Making for Complex Engineered Systems  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Understanding group decision-making processes is crucial for design or operation of a complex system. Unfortunately, there are few experimental tools that might contribute to the development of a theory of group decision-making by committees of technical experts. This research aims to fills this gap by providing tools based on computational linguistics algorithms that can analyze transcripts of multi-stakeholder decision-making entities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device ap...

Broniatowski, David Andre; Coughlin, Joseph F.; Magee, Christopher L.; Yang, Maria

2009-01-01

346

A decision model for portfolio selection  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This study presents one approach to investing in the financial markets using a decision theory point of view, where the main decision is to choose an investment portfolio, based on economic indexes, in order to predict future investments based on historical data, which minimizes the risk involved. The decision model is based on Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis and the application uses Brazilian financial market data from January 1998 to June 2005 as an input.Este artigo apresenta uma...

Rodrigo José Pires Ferreira; Adiel Teixeira de Almeida Filho; Fernando Menezes Campello De Souza

2009-01-01

347

7 CFR 2.67 - Administrator, Economic Research Service.  

Science.gov (United States)

...including general economic analyses of the international...Review economic data and analyses used in speeches by...land-grant colleges and universities, other organizations...Conduct surveys and analysis and publish reports...Review all proposed decisions having substantial...

2010-01-01

348

Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

Udude Celina C

2012-06-01

349

Engineering Economic Analysis for Feed Gas Cooler (Cold box: a Case of a Gas Processing Complex in Malaysia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study examine the economic feasibility of a proposal to replace an existing Feed Gas Cooler (Cold Box with a new unit in a gas processing complex in Malaysia. Economic justification is essential to make the decision on the feasibility of this undertaking because of the high capital investment. The mathematical model presented in the paper includes net present worth, payback period, rate of return, investment balance analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Critical analyses on four factors of the estimates were done to assess their influence on the overall economic justification of the proposal. The results indicate an acceptable return on investment. However, the proposal is susceptible to the variation in demand of the Feed Gas Load.

Ghazali Zulkipli

2014-07-01

350

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

351

Impact of economic growth and financial development on exports: Cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The analysis shows cointegration between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results that economic growth and financial development stimulate rate of exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports and exports and economic growth in case of Pakistan.

Shahbaz, Muhammad; Rahman, Mizanur

2011-01-01

352

Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The rapid growth of high-data-rate applications along with the fact that the majority of mobile data traffic is originated indoor has drawn much attention on IBW (In Building Wireless) solutions, from industry to academic research. The mobile network operators seek proper indoor solutions to accommodate the high indoor traffic demand for their future network evolution. In this thesis, we study the dedicated indoor systems for enterprise solutions. The DAS and Femtocells constitute two major IBW solutions for efficient in-building coverage extension and capacity provision. This study makes a technology economical examination based on these two systems for network evolution using the LTE technology. The performance is evaluated based on simulations. Overall, the DAS is less efficient in providing high speed, high volume mobile data services than the multi-cell system, i.e. the Femto system and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto system has absolute advantage compared to the DAS. For coverage-oriented deployment with very limited user data traffic demand, DAS is the most economical solution in large-size buildings, and Femto is more economical for deployment in small-size buildings.

Liu, Zhen

2013-01-01

353

Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

Manvinder Singh Pahwa

2013-06-01

354

Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees and Simulation for Cost Benefit Analysis of the Cargo Screening Process  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world situation. We show how these tools can be used and what the results are for each of them. Our aim is to conduct a comparison of these different probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port security risk assessment studies. Methodologically,...

Sherman, Galina; Siebers, Peer-olaf; Aickelin, Uwe; Menachof, David

2013-01-01

355

Decision-Making on International Relations: A Theoretical Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the course of everyday running of contemporary political and institutional systems, decision makers are often faced with a great complexity of big and small challenges requiring decisive action in line with laid down principles and rules of behaviour. In the process of trying to satisfy the various corporate interests within an institutional framework, the decision maker is faced with, and often has to choose between various competing policy options. Making use of library research methodology, the paper undertook a careful and critical appraisal of the ways and means by which decision makers arrive at basic decisions in the dynamic field of international politics, with a view to discovering basic consistencies that can form a basis for an understanding of the theory of decision making, in a descriptive explanatory and predictive perspective. The paper concluded that, since the decision making environment does not always manifest openness and popular participation, the ultimate decision maker’s sense of objectivity cannot always be guaranteed. 

L. Andy Afinotan

2014-06-01

356

Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society  

Science.gov (United States)

Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

357

Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically high purity (limited dissolved solids) is used inside boilers, reactors or electrolyzers because as it changes phase or is consumed, it leaves very little residue behind. Pre-treatment of 'raw' source water to remove impurities not only enables efficient hydrogen production, but also reduces maintenance costs associated with component degradation due to those impurities. Cooling water has lower overall quality specifications, though it is required in larger volumes. Cooling water has distinct quality requirements aimed at preserving the cooling equipment by reducing scaling and fouling from untreated water. At least as important as the quantity, quality and cost of water inputs to a process are the quantity, quality and cost of water discharge. In many parts of the world, contamination from wastewater streams is a far greater threat to water supply than scarcity or drought (Brooks, 2002). Wastewater can be produced during the pre-treatment processes for process and cooling water, and is also sometimes generated during the hydrogen production and cooling operations themselves. Wastewater is, by definition, lower quality than supply water. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities can handle some industrial wastewaters; others must be treated on-site or recycled. Any of these options can incur additional cost and/or complexity. DOE's 'H2A' studies have developed cost and energy intensity estimates for a variety of hydrogen production pathways. These assessments, however, have not focused on the details of water use, treatment and disposal. As a result, relatively coarse consumption numbers have been used to estimate water intensities. The water intensity for hydrogen production ranges between 1.5-40 gallons per kilogram of hydrogen, including the embedded water due to electricity consumption and considering the wide variety of hydrogen production, water treatment, and cooling options. Understanding the consequences of water management choices enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding water use. Water is a fundamentally reg

Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

2010-01-06

358

Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making : a systematic literature review of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studies that was hard to explain.

SØgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

2012-01-01

359

Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.  

Science.gov (United States)

The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics. PMID:9950562

Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

1999-02-01

360

An economic analysis of identity and career choice  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary returns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof and Kranton (2000), we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors relate...

Knoth Humlum, Maria; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Skyt Nielsen, Helena

2007-01-01

 
 
 
 
361

Economic analysis of wheat production on family farms  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Serbian agricultural producers are currently facing a large number of challenges which have a significant influence on their business activities. Continuous monitoring and evaluation of existing family farms business activities is the only way to improve their profitability and enhance competitiveness in such conditions. Bearing this in mind, the objective of this research is to emphasize an importance of the economic analysis of wheat production on family ...

Todorovi? Saša Z.; Filipovi? Nikola S.

2010-01-01

362

Justifications and Excuses in the Economic Analysis of Tort Law  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract: In the economic analysis of tort law, scant attention is paid to justifications and excuses. An injurer invoking a justification argues that he did not act wrongfully. Excuses imply that the injurer acted wrongfully, but that his act cannot be imputed to him. If torts are described in general terms, on an abstract level, the possible role of justifications and excuses is larger than if the tort is subjectively defined. After all, the specific circumstances of the case that cou...

Visscher, L. T.

2008-01-01

363

Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

364

Brain networks of perceptual decision-making: an fMRI ALE meta-analysis.  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the recent perceptual decision-making literature, a fronto-parietal network is typically reported to primarily represent the neural substrate of human perceptual decision-making. However, the view that only cortical areas are involved in perceptual decision-making has been challenged by several neurocomputational models which all argue that the basal ganglia play an essential role in perceptual decisions. To consolidate these different views, we conducted an Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE meta-analysis on the existing neuroimaging literature. The results argue in favor of the involvement of a frontal-parietal network in general perceptual decision-making that is possibly complemented by the basal ganglia, and modulated in substantial parts by task difficulty. In contrast, expectation of reward, an important aspect of many decision-making processes, shows almost no overlap with the general perceptual decision-making network.

Max C Keuken

2014-06-01

365

Use of external cost assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis for comparative evaluation of options for electricity supply  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper addresses external cost and multi-criteria analyses carried out for selected future electricity generating systems of interest under the Swiss conditions. The external cost estimates are based on an application of the 'impact pathway approach', enhanced by earlier experience from extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The estimated total costs, i.e. the sum of internal and external costs, may serve as a measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems. The multi-criteria approach allows a more explicit consideration of the social dimension, which is highly important for the decision-making process. The applications of multi-criteria analyses illustrate the sensitivity of the results to the range of preferences expressed in the energy debate. Certain patterns in system ranking can be observed in spite of these sensitivities. Both total cost assessment and multi-criteria analysis are found to be useful, complementary instruments to support procedures for decision-making. (author)

366

E-business development in Lithuania and the impact of the economic analysis of the country's economic competitiveness study  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This work the author has set the goal - to analyze e-business development in Lithuania and to investigate the economic characteristics of e-business impact on the country's economic competitiveness by using statistical data analysis. The scientific work was analyzed and systematized the various Lithuanian and foreign authors theoretical e-business development and its impact on economic competitiveness issues and the empirical basis of their relationship. Authors formed a research hypothesis w...

Z?emaitis, Vytautas; Milkintis, Martynas

2010-01-01

367

Technical-economical analysis of the power distribution systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

By doing the research within this project the researchers have studied thoroughly the most modern world literature which helped them got a complete overview of the state of the art and helped them obtained a considerable amount of new knowledge in the field of power distribution analysis and planning. This knowledge has formed the basis for the realization of the existing models as well as for the development of new models and techniques. All these activities have produced certain results. Some of the results from the project have been already published in the most prominent domestic and world publications in the last three years. The rest will be published in the near future. These results will be systematically summarized in the sequel: 1) The most modern and recent literature in the field of power distribution design and analysis has been studied. 2) The technical criteria to be used in the assessment of adequacy and acceptability of the alternatives considered have been defined. Here, a new stochastic approach has been introduced in the treatment of some of the technical criteria (voltage levels, thermal limits and reliability indices. 3) The existing models for calculations and analysis of radial distribution networks have been studied and some new models and efficient techniques have been developed. 4) A new, original, probabilistic load flow method has been developed. 5) The convolution technique has been introduced in the solution of the probabilistic load flothe solution of the probabilistic load flow problem in power distribution networks. This also represents an original scientific work. 6) The problems of power and energy loss minimization by network reconfiguration have been studied. 7) A new model for the determination of optimal configuration of balanced and unbalanced power distribution networks has been realized. 8) A new, original, energy loss calculation technique has been developed. The technique needs easily obtainable input data. It is rather simple, highly efficient and precise. 9) The classical methods, analytical and deterministic, for reliability analysis have been studied. A new, more accurate, stochastic approach which relies on Monte Carlo simulation has been developed. 10) Customer damages due to loss of electricity supply have been studied and analyzed in detail, as well as their economic impact and their incorporation into a technic-economical analysis. 11) The influence of the automatic and telematic switching equipment on the reliability indices in power distribution networks has been investigated and their incorporation into a technic-economical analysis have been studied. 12) A new engineering economic technique for assessment of development alternatives for a power distribution system has been introduced. It represents a generalization of the well known 'present worth technique', based upon the fuzzy set theory. This way it is possible to include nonstatistical uncertainty which is almost always present in the input data. 13) By using the results from above, a new, modem, efficient and accurate up to the desired level, model for technic-economical analysis has been developed. The model is computer oriented and is aimed for use in power distribution system planning and analysis. 14) A computer software that comprise all the above described techniques, models and economic aspects has been developed. This software enables further technic-economical analysis, carried on a computer, of any power distribution system. (Original)

368

The flow networks approach to decision analysis in construction industry  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The application of flow networks on the example of the types of works distribution as well as the distribution of construction workers qualification structure according to particular types of buildings is presented in the paper. The flow networks considered were proposed by Zdzislaw Pawlak and are the tools for the new mathematical models related to the information regarding flow explorations in decision algorithms. The decision algorithms consist of series of decision rules for each particular case of various types of construction objects interdependence, as well as of various kinds of workers and their qualification structure. It is all generated in the paper. .

?irovi? Goran

2007-01-01

369

7 CFR 2.21 - Under Secretary for Research, Education, and Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

...economic data and analyses used in speeches by...Coordinate all economic analysis and review all decisions involving substantial...land-grant colleges and universities, other organizations...Conduct surveys and analysis and publish...

2010-01-01

370

Development of a Decision Support System for Analysis and Solutions of Prolonged Standing in the Workplace  

Science.gov (United States)

Background Prolonged standing has been hypothesized as a vital contributor to discomfort and muscle fatigue in the workplace. The objective of this study was to develop a decision support system that could provide systematic analysis and solutions to minimize the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Methods The integration of object-oriented programming and a Model Oriented Simultaneous Engineering System were used to design the architecture of the decision support system. Results Validation of the decision support system was carried out in two manufacturing companies. The validation process showed that the decision support system produced reliable results. Conclusion The decision support system is a reliable advisory tool for providing analysis and solutions to problems related to the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Further testing of the decision support system is suggested before it is used commercially. PMID:25180141

Halim, Isa; Arep, Hambali; Kamat, Seri Rahayu; Abdullah, Rohana; Omar, Abdul Rahman; Ismail, Ahmad Rasdan

2014-01-01

371

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GORJ COUNTY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES IN CRISIS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Purpose of the paper is to highlight how the economy evolved in the Florida county comparison with neighboring counties in economic crisis that society through the difficult years. also study and make acomparison in terms of demographic characteristics, respectively, compared between young and old, labor migration, etc. form., indices that are decisive for evaluating the economic situation of the county above mentioned. Economically, the county is in the connection between the economy and sub...

CONSTANTA ENEA; CONSTANTIN ENEA; CARINA ELENA STEGAROIU

2012-01-01

372

Economic analysis of potential uses of geothermal energy in agriculture  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The economic feasibility and water quality considerations of the cultural practice of soil warming was evaluated using existing technical, agronomic, and economic data. It was hypothesized that it is technically and economically feasible to use geothermal energy in the cultural practice of soil warming for specific crops. The analysis attempted to reject the hypothesis. Since the hypothesis could not be rejected, the results are presented as a profit equation suitable for inclusion in the GEOCOST computer program. This determination of economic feasibility utilized heterogeneous crop yield data by comparing the elasticity of response with a normalized product-factor price ratio. Soil warming was determined to be feasible when the elasticity of production was equal to or greater than the normalized product-factor price ratio. A farm enterprise was determined profitable if net returns were positive. An empirical model in which the energy dissipation rate is a function of the difference between heat source temperature and mean monthly air temperature was transformed to utilize data describing the total heat applied during the growing season. Heat input was then measured as the total number of calories per square centimeter applied during the growing season.

Cone, B.W.

1978-02-01

373

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Division of Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

With the mission "to assure that futures markets operate competitively," the CFTC Division of Economic Analysis is a central source of commodity market surveillance, analysis, and research. Available publications include policy statements and reports on derivative markets, price differentials, agricultural trade options, and foreign competitiveness, among other topics. Weekly statistical data on open interest contracts is distributed on a bi-weekly basis via the Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports. Researchers may view the current compressed COT Report in "long" or "short" format and download historical data according to "Futures only" (1986 to present) or "Futures and Options Combined" (1995 to present) criteria.

374

Socio-economic impact analysis of new AECB regulations  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The federal government's Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIA) policy has been in effect since 1978. Under this policy, all new or amended regulations concerning health, safety, or fairness are subjected to a screening exercise which determines whether the regulations are 'major' or 'minor'. The costs and benefits of major regulations are analyzed in depth. This paper describes the SEIA policy and explains some of the basic concepts. Then the steps the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) follows in the analysis of new regulations are summarized. Finally, the AECB's past and forthcoming experience with the SEIA policy is discussed

375

Analysis of decisions and evaluation of components influencing the state of decisions of nuclear power plant operators  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A proposal for reporting and for feedback of human malfunctions at Swedish nuclear power plants is presented for regular use. The method is intended for the description of terms which are independent of the situation. There is also the possibility to improve the exchange of experience with other countries. The proposed method was tested on a couple of incidents at Swedish nuclear power plants. The simplified version of the decision analysis was found to be sufficient for uncomplicated cases. (G.B.)

376

The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in their companies, as well as their own opinion concerning the introduction of sports at work. In addition, their demographic and socio-economic characteristics were recorded. The results indicated that the employers with a higher level of education make use of sports programmes in their companies more often, compared to those with a lower level of education. Sex, age and salary of employers did not affect the frequency of sports programmes at work. The employers claim that the introduction of sports activities in their companies helped reduce the appearance of illnesses and employees’ absence from work due to health reasons, and the number of accidents at work. Consequently, it contributed to the increase in production, creativity and team spirit among the employees, while raising their morale, and self-confidence. Moreover, it brought about a rise in profits and improved the image of the company offering such programmes. A research focus on the legal status, organization and establishment of sports activities at work could provide valuable information on whether health and safety measures are applied according to the provisions of the law.

Ioannis Trigonis

2008-06-01

377

Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a nu...

Andrey Kudryavtsev; Julia Pavlodsky

2012-01-01

378

An economic analysis of BWR control rod blade management strategies. Final report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuclear power plants have available a number of alternative courses of action that can contribute to the reduction of personnel exposure to radiation. Possible actions at boiling water reactor (BWR) plants include accelerating the replacement of high-cobalt control rod blades (CRB) or the blades' high-cobalt pins and rollers with low or non-cobalt substitutes. To help utilities understand the exposure reduction and the economic costs and benefits associated with management alternatives, such as accelerated replacement of blades, pins and rollers, EPRI has initiated a project called Cost/Benefit Software for Analyses of Radiation Control Measures (RP1935-32). Through this project EPRI will incorporate engineering-economic techniques into a series of analytical tools that will provide useful insights about alternative exposure reduction options. Prototype software has been developed in an Excel worksheet to analyze issues associated with BWR control rod blade management options. The CRB replacement problem framework and analysis methodology incorporated into the software tool will help plant managers consider explicitly key engineering and economic issues that are relevant to exposure reduction decisions. This tool generates results that can help plant managers make decisions that are fiscally wise by showing all the cost and benefit implications associated with a management action under consideration. This report describes the general analytical approach for evaluatinggeneral analytical approach for evaluating exposure reduction alternatives. The methodology used to analyze blade and pin and roller replacement alternatives, and the results of a case study application of the methodology and the software prototype at Commonwealth Edison

379

Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility`s participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities.

Allison, T.; Hunter, S.; Calzonetti, F.J.

1992-10-01

380

Economic Analysis of Wheat Forecasting Analysis and Price Shocks in Wheat Market in Pakistan: A Survey  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Pakistani wheat growers and their economic implications are analyzed through alternative specifications of the Demand Model. Existences, nature of production lags, and the choice between expected wheat and gross returns were taken as the preferred explanatory variables of producers’ response to the changing economic condition. The analyses indicate that there are lags which are, primarily, due to the difficulties and cost of rapid adjustment rather than to the time required to revise expectations. The statistical results were similar for the alternative specification of gross margins and wheat as the economic decision available. However, the wheat elasticity derived using the gross margins specification were about a third of those using the wheat specification.

Abdul Latif

2012-02-01

 
 
 
 
381

Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

382

Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installationlemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

383

Economic Freedom Verses Economic Growth: Cross Countries Analysis in the form of ARDL approch  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The generous theoretical and empirical debates are available on institutionalfreedom and economic growth, but unsuccessful to facilitate stationaryconclusion regarding the nature of connection. It is still confusing that eithereconomic freedom cause economic growth or economic growth widens thefoundation for economic freedom. The finale will be more puzzled if the analysisbased on different kinds of economies. The aim of this study is to probe thenature of relationships between economic freedom and economic growth indifferent kinds of economies. For statistical evidence autoregressive distributedlag (ARDL approach is employed by using the data of 96 countries [HighIncome (29, Upper Middle Income (18, Lower Middle Income (26 and LowerIncome (23]. The empirical results indicate bilateral and robust relationshipsbetween economic freedom and economic growth in high income and lowermiddle income countries, while in upper middle income and low incomecountries, economic freedom causes economic growth in unilateral connection.

Khalid Mahmood

2011-03-01

384

Economic Analysis of Cassava Production in Benue State, Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The study was undertaken to analyze the economics of cassava production in Benue State. Data for this study were collected from a sample of one hundred and sixteen small-scale cassava farmers randomly selected. The objectives of the study were to determine and rank the cost elements of cassava production in the study area; determine the returns to cassava production; and evaluate the profitability of cassava production in the study area. Socio-economic factors include age, educational background, marital status, sex, sources of labour, awareness of extension services, method of weed control, and method of farm land acquisition were identified. Data collected for the study were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The coefficient of determination (R2 is 0.616, suggesting that the used model has a high goodness of fit. Furthermore, the result of the statistical analysis shows that investing in cassava production enterprise is profitable.

I.U. Odoemenem

2011-09-01

385

Factor Analysis of the Northeast Economic Zone's Logistics Competition  

Science.gov (United States)

Along with the expanding regional logistics network, the area's logistics competition is very important because it enhances the entire area's economy. This paper is based on both the domestic and foreign theories and methods used with related subjects to study the content of the area's logistics competition. According to the level of economic development in Northeast region, the scale of logistics demand, the situation of logistics supply as well as the level of development of information, all establish the urban logistics competitiveness index system using the factor analysis method through the SPSS system to evaluate the competitiveness of the urban logistics which is very representative of the Northeast economic area. Finally, this paper uses the fore mentioned system to calculate the scores of 27 city's separated into 3 categories: The first including 4 cities (Shenyang, Harbin, Dalian, Changchun), the second having 3 cities (Jilin, Daqing, Anshan) and the final category has 20 cities (Fushun, Songyuan, Qiqihar, Baotou etc.).

Shen, Wei; Wang, Jiaxin; Li, Tingting

386

Economic Analysis on the Tragedy of the Commons of River  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The tragedy of the commons of river describes the plight of continuous exhaustion of the river resources. Its essence is because resources are excessive used. It takes the river pollution as an example in this paper, under the traditional hypothesis of classical economics, to analyze the reasons for the formation of tragedy of the commons of the rivers briefly, which is caused by repeated pollution actions among the inhabitants and the institution is important to solve it resultantly, in the view of game theory. Then, on the basis of New Institutional Economics (NIE, the discussion separately from microscopic, intermediate and macroscopic perspectives explores and answers what the institutions should be for tragedy of the commons of the rivers. Next is the case analysis of Jinhua River. It comes to the conclusions: the government could exploit planning mechanism and price mechanism generally, providing proper river property rights arrangement, to reduce various transaction costs and establish the river compensation system.

Weikang Zhang

2011-08-01

387

The application of the lake ecosystem index in multi-attribute decision analysis in radioecology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This work gives a summary of multi-attribute analysis (MAA) and its use in decision support systems for radiological and environmental contamination problems and presents a modification of the lake ecosystem index (LEI) as a tool to give an holistic account for the environmental (and not just radiological) consequences of chemical remedial measures (lake and wet land liming, potash treatment and lake fertilisation) carried out to reduce radionuclide levels in water, sediments and biota. The first step in determining a LEI-value is to set normal or initial values of two important limnological state variables, pH and total-P. The second step involves predicting state indices describing the abundance of key functional groups (the fish yield and biomasses of phytoplankton and bottom fauna). The next step concerns the definition of a lake ecosystem index based on the state indices. The final step is the derivation of the utility function to be used in the multi-attribute analysis to compare environmental, economical and social attributes of different dimensions (ECU, kg, Bq/kg, etc.). The ecosystem index characterises the entire lake over longer periods of time (months), and not specific sites in lakes or specific sampling events

388

The application of the lake ecosystem index in multi-attribute decision analysis in radioecology  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This work gives a summary of multi-attribute analysis (MAA) and its use in decision support systems for radiological and environmental contamination problems and presents a modification of the lake ecosystem index (LEI) as a tool to give an holistic account for the environmental (and not just radiological) consequences of chemical remedial measures (lake and wet land liming, potash treatment and lake fertilisation) carried out to reduce radionuclide levels in water, sediments and biota. The first step in determining a LEI-value is to set normal or initial values of two important limnological state variables, pH and total-P. The second step involves predicting state indices describing the abundance of key functional groups (the fish yield and biomasses of phytoplankton and bottom fauna). The next step concerns the definition of a lake ecosystem index based on the state indices. The final step is the derivation of the utility function to be used in the multi-attribute analysis to compare environmental, economical and social attributes of different dimensions (ECU, kg, Bq/kg, etc.). The ecosystem index characterises the entire lake over longer periods of time (months), and not specific sites in lakes or specific sampling events.

Haakanson, Lars E-mail: lars.hakanson@natgeog.uu.se; Gallego, Eduardo; Rios-Insua, Sixto

2000-07-01

389

Socio-cultural and economic antecedents of adolescent sexual decision-making and HIV-risk in rural Uganda.  

Science.gov (United States)

With more than half of new infections occurring among youth, HIV/AIDS remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in Uganda. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 48 adolescents and 15 adult key informants in a rural Ugandan community to identify influences on adolescent sexual decision-making. Inductive data analytic methods revealed five thematic influences: (1) social pressure, (2) decline of the Senga (a familial figure who traditionally taught female adolescents about how to run a household), (3) cultural barriers to condom use, (4) knowledge of HIV transmission and modes of prevention, and (5) a moral injunction against sex before marriage. Influences were classified as HIV/AIDS risk and protective factors and organized to form an explanatory framework of adolescent sexual risk-taking. Risk factors pull youth toward risky behavior, while protective factors push them away. Predominance of risk over protective influences explains persistent sexual risk-taking by Ugandan youth. HIV prevention programs designed for Ugandan adolescents should take competing factors and sociocultural and economic influences into account. PMID:22835224

Katz, Ingrid T; Ybarra, Michele L; Wyatt, Monique A; Kiwanuka, Julius P; Bangsberg, David R; Ware, Norma C

2013-01-01

390

Financial programming and multicriteria decision analysis: one more tool on librarians’ hands?  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

As the economics of libraries become more and more complicated the libraries’ interest in economic and financial analysis is never been more crucial. This paper examines the difficulties associated with the application of financial analysis. Financial programming and financial planning models for libraries are also been discussed. The library’s state of the art and its economic relations are mentioned along with the peculiarities of the product “information” and some principles on it...

Katsirikou, Anthi

1999-01-01

391

Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and participants felt uneasy about probabilities. The application of decision analysis in exercises has proven useful. Structuring the problem provided insight and many new issues could be analysed and discussed. Using a decision interview technique forces participants to think about the issue more carefully. Opinions seem to be more coherent and harmonised compared with earlier decision conferencing. Further meetings, however, need to be organised in order to deepen insight into the features of the decision-making process and to familiarise decision-makers with decision analysis techniques. More research is needed on how to implement decision conferencing or interviews in nuclear emergency management. (orig.)

392

Complex technic-economical model for distribution systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Power distribution systems are important part of the overall electric power system in both technical and economical sense. They can encounter as much as more than half of the total investment costs and their operational costs are also substantial. Therefore, considerable amount of money can be saved if during their expansion and operational planning, the best solution is chosen. By the best solution we mean the one that fulfills all criteria and constraints while having the least total costs. Funding this solution is the task that should be performed by means of technic-economical analysis. This thesis introduces a complex technic-economical model for distribution system analysis. The model is complex from both quantitative and qualitative point of view. From the quantitative point of view, consumers are modeled in every detail considering daily and seasonal load variation. More than one type of consumers can exist with specific load diagrams. This kind of load modeling can be adequately taken into consideration in the load flow analysis, energy loss calculation and reliability evaluation. In all these calculations, appropriate methods and techniques can be used which are shown and explained in the text. From the qualitative point of view, consumers' loads can be modeled as random variables. For this purpose, in the thesis is developed and shown probabilistic load flow technique which allows us to consider all the variables as random variables with certain probability random variables with certain probability distribution functions. This way, technical constraints can be viewed as soft, rather than hard, with some probabilities attached. In order to efficiently calculate convolutions which appear in the probabilistic load flow, some appropriate technique is needed. For this purpose Fast Fourier Transform in the thesis is used. The problem of reliability has one of the main roles in technic-economical analysis. The first one is that the reliability analysis provides us with the information about the customer interruption costs, as well as equipment repairing and replacement costs. The second one is that almost always exists some constraints regarding quality of the supply. Two fundamentally different approaches of reliability indices evaluation are shown. Analytical approach and Monte Carlo simulation. The first one is not so accurate but is fast, the second one is accurate but slow. (author)

393

Female participation in household decision-making: an analysis of consumer durables' acquisition in Pakistan.  

Science.gov (United States)

Investigating the nature and degree of female household decision-making in Pakistan, this paper analyzes the influence of women in the purchase consumer durables. The paper also identifies those factors which enable women to play a more active role in the decision-making process. Because women in Pakistan are generally excluded from the public sphere, their level of emancipation is better assessed according to the degree of participation in household decision-making. A good measure of women's power within a household is their influence in the purchase of consumer durables (cars, appliances, etc.), whose expense and life-long nature makes their purchase an important decision. For this study, the authors relied on data from a 1989 nationwide household survey conducted by AERC, which included a information concerning the acquisition of 12 consumer durables as expected. As expected, men make more decisions on the purchase of all consumer goods than women, even for items in which women feel more need than men (e.g. sewing machines, washing machines). The study found that for the needs felt by women for all durable goods, men make 2/3 of all decisions, while women make only 1/3 of decisions. And in cases where the need is felt by men, the men make 93% of the decisions, while women decide only 3 % of the times. The study identified various cultural and economic factors that affect women's decision making power: urban women, women in nuclear families, educated women, and working women generally have more decision making power than rural women, women in extended families, illiterate women, and unemployed women. PMID:12285315

Mujahid-mukhtar, E; Mukhtar, H

1991-01-01

394

Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties

395

An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess  

CERN Document Server

The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

Godescu, Alexandru

2011-01-01

396

An economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solar-hydrogen energy systems have received some attention in recent years as viable alternatives to the present fossil-fuel based energy systems. This paper presents an economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems with an associated cost comparison. The analysis takes into account the energy cost, operation and maintenance, and fixed charges on capital investment. Electrical requirements of the compressors or energy cost of a liquefier are predominantly functions of the liquefier efficiency and are less dependent on the production rate required. The analysis showed that the cost of liquefying hydrogen is lowest for an optimized large-scale type liquid hydrogen plant and is highest for a simple conceptual liquid hydrogen plant. The liquefaction cost was also shown to reach a value of $0.63/kg for the optimized large-scale type plant at a production rate of 30,000 kg/h when the cost of electricity is $0.04/(kW h). (author)

397

An economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solar-hydrogen energy systems have received some attention in recent years as viable alternatives to the present fossil-fuel based energy systems. This paper presents an economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems with an associated cost comparison. The analysis takes into account the energy cost, operation and maintenance, and fixed charges on capital investment. Electrical requirements of the compressors or energy cost of a liquefier are predominantly functions of the liquefier efficiency and are less dependent on the production rate required. The analysis showed that the cost of liquefying hydrogen is lowest for an optimized large-scale type liquid hydrogen plant and is highest for a simple conceptual liquid hydrogen plant. The liquefaction cost was also shown to reach a value of $0.63/kg for the optimized large-scale type plant at a production rate of 30,000 kg/h when the cost of electricity is $0.04/(kW h). (author)

Syed, M.T. [National University of Sciences and Technology, Rawalpindi (Pakistan). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Sherif, S.A. [University of Florida, Gainesville (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Veziroglu, T.N. [University of Miami, Coral Gables (United States). Clean Energy Research Institute; Sheffield, J.W. [University of Missouri-Rolla Rolla (United States). Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics

1998-12-01

398

Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ? Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ? Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ? Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ? Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ? Additional research is needed to create a more precise pold to create a more precise policy solution.

399

The MATHEMATICA economic analysis of the Space Shuttle System  

Science.gov (United States)

Detailed economic analysis shows the Thrust Assisted Orbiter Space Shuttle System (TAOS) to be the most economic Space Shuttle configuration among the systems studied. The development of a TAOS Shuttle system is economically justified within a level of space activities between 300 and 360 Shuttle flights in the 1979-1990 period, or about 25 to 30 flights per year, well within the U.S. Space Program including NASA and DoD missions. If the NASA and DoD models are taken at face value (624 flights), the benefits of the Shuttle system are estimated to be $13.9 billion with a standard deviation of plus or minus $1.45 billion in 1970 dollars (at a 10% social rate of discount). If the expected program is modified to 514 flights (in the 1979-1990 period), the estimated benefits of the Shuttle system are $10.2 billion, with a standard deviation of $940 million (at a 10% social rate of discount).

Heiss, K. P.

1973-01-01

400

How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.  

Science.gov (United States)

In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare. PMID:24328890

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

2014-02-01

 
 
 
 
401

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

2010-11-01

402

An economic analysis of photovoltaic solar refrigeration systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The research activity has shown that the solar energy is an ideal source for low temperature heating applications as domestic heating. The direct use of solar energy as a primary energy source is interesting because of its universal availability and its low environmental impact. Solar heating applications are intuitive because, when a surface absorbs solar energy, the surface temperature increases determining a heating potential. The use of solar energy to obtain refrigeration is less intuitive. Different technologies are available to obtain refrigeration from solar energy; in particular, there are solar electric, solar thermal and some new emerging technologies. The first system deals with the refrigerated vehicles used to carry foodstuffs. The photovoltaic plant has been sized taking into account the vehicle available area and the proper refrigeration capacity determined by the foodstuffs, the vehicle volume and the outdoor temperature. As for this system, an accurate sensibility analysis has shown that if there was a proper loan of about 75% of the photovoltaic plant cost, there would be a pay-back period of about seven years. In this case the photovoltaic technology allows to obtain not only economic advantages but also to achieve a CO2 reduction in the transportation area. As for the second system, it is related to refrigerators adopted in underdeveloped countries for their simple structure and low costs. The economic analysis has shown pay-back periodconomic analysis has shown pay-back periods between two and six years, depending on the type of silicon adopted. (author)

403

Economic analysis of cloud-based desktop virtualization implementation at a hospital  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cloud-based desktop virtualization infrastructure (VDI is known as providing simplified management of application and desktop, efficient management of physical resources, and rapid service deployment, as well as connection to the computer environment at anytime, anywhere with anydevice. However, the economic validity of investing in the adoption of the system at a hospital has not been established. Methods This study computed the actual investment cost of the hospital-wide VDI implementation at the 910-bed Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in Korea and the resulting effects (i.e., reductions in PC errors and difficulties, application and operating system update time, and account management time. Return on investment (ROI, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR indexes used for corporate investment decision-making were used for the economic analysis of VDI implementation. Results The results of five-year cost-benefit analysis given for 400 Virtual Machines (VMs; i.e., 1,100 users in the case of SNUBH showed that the break-even point was reached in the fourth year of the investment. At that point, the ROI was 122.6%, the NPV was approximately US$192,000, and the IRR showed an investment validity of 10.8%. From our sensitivity analysis to changing the number of VMs (in terms of number of users, the greater the number of adopted VMs was the more investable the system was. Conclusions This study confirms that the emerging VDI can have an economic impact on hospital information system (HIS operation and utilization in a tertiary hospital setting.

Yoo Sooyoung

2012-10-01

404

THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ACTUAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Tourism sector. Under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises, sharp exchange rate fluctuations, increase terrorism acts in several region with tourism potential Tourism demand slowed significantly. Yet, despite the current difficulties, the Tourism sector remains a critical economic sector worldwide and one that provides significant potential for economic growth and development internationally. A growing national Tourism sector contributes to raises national income, employment, and can improve a country's balance of payments. The sector is thus an important driver of growth and prosperity and,  within developing countries, it can play a leading role in poverty reduction. Despite the overall importance of developing the Tourism sector, many obstacles at the national level continue to hinder its development. This analysis aims to serve two purposes. First, we intend to provide useful comparative information for making