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1

Economic analysis and investment decisions  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This book presents the techniques involved in economic evaluation of drilling prospects and oil and gas producing properties - including estimation of reserves, production forecasting, and financial aspects (cash flow, time, value of money, profitability, and valuation of properties). The final chapter is concerned with risk and uncertainty.

Ikoku, C.U.

1985-01-01

2

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: PUBLISHED REPORT  

Science.gov (United States)

NRMRL-CIN-1351A Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. EPA/600/R-01/104 (NTIS PB2002-102119). Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often ...

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HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE  

Science.gov (United States)

NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

4

HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

5

A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

Shekoufeh Nikfar

2012-01-01

6

Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

2010-07-31

7

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1) widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2) an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3) the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4) capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

Wenwen Li; Linna Li; Michael F. Goodchild; Luc Anselin

2013-01-01

8

Broader economic evaluation of disease management programs using multi-criteria decision analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework to facilitate the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for a comprehensive economic evaluation of disease management programs (DMPs). METHODS: We studied previously developed frameworks for the evaluation of DMPs and different methods of MCDA and we used practical field experience in the economic evaluation of DMPs and personal discussions with stakeholders in chronic care. RESULTS: The framework includes different objectives and criteria that are relevant for the evaluation of DMPs, indicators that can be used to measure how DMPs perform on these criteria, and distinguishes between the development and implementation phase of DMPs. The objectives of DMPs are categorised into a) changes in the process of care delivery, b) changes in patient lifestyle and self-management behaviour, c) changes in biomedical, physiological and clinical health outcomes, d) changes in health-related quality of life, and e) changes in final health outcomes. All relevant costs of DMPs are also included in the framework. Based on this framework we conducted a MCDA of a hypothetical DMP versus usual care. CONCLUSIONS: We call for a comprehensive economic evaluation of DMPs that is not just based on a single criterion but takes into account multiple relevant criteria simultaneously. The framework we presented here is a step towards standardising such an evaluation.

Tsiachristas A; Cramm JM; Nieboer A; Rutten-van Mölken M

2013-07-01

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A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment.

Postmus D; Tervonen T; van Valkenhoef G; Hillege HL; Buskens E

2013-07-01

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Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.

Lemming G; Friis-Hansen P; Bjerg PL

2010-05-01

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Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.

2010-01-01

12

The economic burden of dry eye disease in the United States: a decision tree analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual cost of managing dry eye disease (DED) in the United States from a societal and a payer's perspective. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the annual cost for managing a cohort of patients with dry eye with differing severity of symptoms and treatment. The direct costs included ocular lubricants, cyclosporine, punctal plugs, physician visits, and nutritional supplements. The indirect costs were measured as the productivity loss because of absenteeism and presenteeism. The model was populated with data that were obtained from surveys that were completed by dry eye sufferers who were recruited from online databases. Sensitivity analyses were employed to evaluate the impact of changes in parameters on the estimation of costs. All costs were converted to 2008 US dollars. RESULTS: Survey data were collected from 2171 respondents with DED. Our analysis indicated that the average annual cost of managing a patient with dry eye at $783 (variation, $757-$809) from the payers' perspective. When adjusted to the prevalence of DED nationwide, the overall burden of DED for the US healthcare system would be $3.84 billion. From a societal perspective, the average cost of managing DED was estimated to be $11,302 per patient and $55.4 billion to the US society overall. CONCLUSIONS: DED poses a substantial economic burden on the payer and on the society. These findings may provide valuable information for health plans or employers regarding budget estimation.

Yu J; Asche CV; Fairchild CJ

2011-04-01

13

Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

Speck, D E

2008-04-28

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HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS (EPA/600/R-01/104)  

Science.gov (United States)

Environmental decision support tools often provide information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. Medical decision making and health economics offer many metrics that allow aggregation of these different health outcomes. Th...

15

Economical evaluations of the Sizewell decision  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article examines the overall economics of the Sizewell B project using methods of probabilistic decision analysis. Under an illustrative choice of input probability distributions used to represent uncertain variables, it is shown that there is a 60% chance that Sizewell B will prove to be justified on economic grounds. More importantly, however, the expected value of the project turns out to be large and positive. The methodology may be used to examine the effect of using different subjective probability distributions, and so serves as a useful tool for the decision maker faced with conflicting views of an uncertain future.

Evans, N. (Cambridge Univ. (UK). Cavendish Lab.)

1984-09-01

16

Economic modelling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning.

1987-01-01

17

Economic analysis of the harvest-aid decision for cotton in West Tennessee.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Economic tradeoffs influence producers' decisions in applying a harvest-aid before a once-over or twice-over harvest for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). This decision may be affected by responses of first harvest yield and quality to the harvest-aid, cotton prices, harvest-aid treatment costs, cotton harvesting and handling costs, and weather between harvests. The objective of this study was to evaluate how these factors influence net revenues (NR) to alternative harvest-aids. Yields and fiber quality data were from a 1992 to 1994 harvest-aid study at Jackson, TN. The study evaluated 12 treatments including commercial defoliants (Folex [S,S,S,-tributyl phosphorotrithioate], Dropp [thidiazuron], Harvade [2,3 Dihydro-5 6-Di- methyyl 1,4-Dithiin], and Defol [sodium chlorate]) with and without a boll opener (Prep [ethephon]). Net revenues for the treatments were estimated using North Delta price quotations, harvest-aid costs, harvesting costs, and handling costs. Dropp (0.05 lb a.i./acre) and Prep (1.0 lb a.i./acre) produced the largest positive influence on effective lint price and NR for farmers interested in once-over or twice-over harvest systems. First harvest NR was significantly higher than for no harvest-aid treatments. However, a once-over harvest using this treatment would have to be delayed from the times in this experiment to allow more bolls to open to minimize second harvest NR foregone. Dropp and Prep also produced the largest two harvest NR. The most important factors influencing NR for Dropp and Prep were a low lint trash content, which resulted in a better LEAF aud lower price discounts, and higher first harvest yields.

Larson JA; Hayes RM; Gwathmey CO; Roberts RK; Gerloff DC

1997-07-01

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An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

Tuomisto Jouni T; Tainio Marko

2005-01-01

19

Decision analysis multicriteria analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

1986-01-01

20

Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

2002-01-01

 
 
 
 
21

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Estimates were made of the relation between the plant-gate price of natural gas and the volume of economically recoverable undiscovered resources. Supply curves were presented for full-cycle and half-cycle cases, and for a weighted case in between full- and half-cycle cases. The weighted case was considered the reference case in this study. It was found that 10% of the volume of recoverable gas was economic at a price of $44.13 per 10,000 cubic m, and 38% was considered economic at $88.25 per 10,000 cubic m (in 1990 dollars). Further analysis showed the sensitivities of economic potential to changes in total costs, exploration success ratios, distances of discoveries to gathering systems, and resource estimates. Virtually all of the economically recoverable gas resources were found in four plays. 10 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.

Waghmare, R.R.; Dallaire, S.M.; Conn, R.F. [Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Sector

1994-12-31

22

SUBSTANTIATION OF ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN THE SMALL-SCALE BUSINESS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Formation of economic decisions in the small-scale business takes a leading place in a control system of the enterprise. On a choice of a variant of the decision depends not only the efficiency, but also a survival of a small enterprise. Therefore in the small-scale business the scientists and businessmen give to a substantiation of the economic decision prime attention.The substantiation of the economic decision occurs in the course of planning and regulation of activity of a small enterprise. The correct substantiation of strategic and tactical decisions, to what in the course of a substantiation it is necessary to apply corresponding methods of the complex analysis, is especially important.Limitation of resources of the small businessman causes the necessity of using by him the systems of support and decision-making in the course of a substantiation of economic decisions. Such systems should have a corresponding database, the interface and algorithmic maintenance.

S. Krekotun

2012-01-01

23

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challengin...

Wenwen Li; Linna Li; Michael F. Goodchild; Luc Anselin

24

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

1980-06-01

25

The reliability analysis--an aid to decision-making in the economic optimization of alternative power plant systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] Using the example of the moisture separator drains system for a 1300 MW nuclear power plant with PWR, this lecture will demonstrate the calculation procedure to assist decision-making (reliability/expected losses/economic viability) for alternative design concepts. A critical examination of the results establishes that owing to the inadequate quality of the reliability parameters applied for the components used, a grey zone occurs in which no statistically assured statements can be made as to the economic benefits of the one or other alternative concepts

1982-01-01

26

An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP) is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW) of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified) working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS) data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won) per QALY (Quality adjusted life year) (2,895.80 USD per QALY). Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY), the probability for cost-effectiveness of a collaborative practice would exceed 50%. At 20,000,000 KRW per QALY, which is recommended using per capita gross domestic product (GDP) as the threshold, the probability would be 72.3%. Conclusions On the basis of our findings, acupuncture collaborative therapy for patients with chronic LBP may be cost-effective if the usual threshold is applied. Further empirical studies are required to overcome the limitations of uncertainties and improve the precision of the results.

Kim Namkwen; Yang Bongmin; Lee Taejin; Kwon Soonman

2010-01-01

27

Sizewell decision. A sensitivity analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In this paper we examine the overall economics of the Sizewell B pressurized water reactor project in the UK from the point of view of uncertainty surrounding key variables. By employing methods of probabilistic decision analysis, in which subjective probability distributions are chosen for a wide range of uncertain variables, we show that there is a 60% chance that Sizewell B will prove to be justified on economic grounds. More importantly, however, the expected value of the project turns out to be large and positive, giving a clear guide to decision makers faced with conflicting views of an uncertain future.

Evans, N. (Cambridge Univ. (UK). Cavendish Lab.)

1984-01-01

28

Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

1979-01-01

29

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics.

Zandstra EH; Miyapuram KP; Tobler PN

2013-01-01

30

Portfolio Decision Analysis  

CERN Document Server

"Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation" provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. This book offers a many-faceted treatment of p

Salo, Ahti; Morton, Alec

2011-01-01

31

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH), vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution). Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

Guy Hutton

2008-01-01

32

Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums.

1999-03-04

33

Designing a Decision Support System for Marine Reserves Management: An Economic Analysis for the Dutch North Sea  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper we discuss how a Decision Support System (DSS) for managing the marine environment can be set up. We use the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Respond (DPSIR) framework to analyze which are the major driving forces impacting upon the marine environment in the North Sea. Moreover, a n...

Ruijs, Arjan; Ding, Hongyu; van Ierland, Ekko C.

34

Economic Signaling and Distributive Efficiency of Judicial Decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: This study considered the problem of how a judge can render an optimal decision in a lawsuit where two litigants each assert a property right in a case where the relevant information is asymmetrically distributed between the parties and the judicial decision-maker. Approach: The research embodied in this study defines an optimal decision as one reflecting the distributive efficiency of the judicial vesting of the right. The research addresses a gap in the economic analysis of legal doctrine by reason of the fact that most of the economic literature on judicial decisionmaking focuses exclusively on implications for allocative efficiency with no regard the distributive effects of the judicial decision. Results: The analysis in the study is confined to cases where ex post bargaining between the parties is infeasible. It is assumed that each litigant has a quadratic utility function. The litigation is characterized by asymmetric information: each party knows the parameters of his own utility function but those parameters are not known by his adversary or by the judge. The judge regards the parties? optima as random variables. The analysis in this study is based on an assumption that the judge will frame his decision so as to maximize a social welfare function, defined as the sum of the litigants? utility functions. The judge infers each litigant?s private information from the signals each transmits during the litigation. Conclusion: The results compared the distributive efficiency of a declaratory judgment with the distributive efficiency of a discretionary judgment. The results established a decision criterion that is distributively efficient in the sense that it maximizes the social welfare function when the judge is imperfectly informed as to the litigant?s valuations.

Edmund H. Mantell

2010-01-01

35

Economic analysis handbook  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This edition of the handbook provides revised guidance on the treatment of inflation in economic analysis, increased emphasis on the use of sensitivity analysis, additional guidance on the treatment of risk, and updates specific guidance for Navy programs. Especially those related to energy conservation. The purpose of this Economic Analysis Handbook is to provide offical NAVFAC guidance for the preparation of economic analyses for: (1) Proposed programs, projects and activities. (2) Program evaluation of ongoing activities. The methodologies demonstrated herein should be applied in comprehensive and continuous management reviews of the cost and effectiveness of both proposed and ongoing projects.

1980-07-01

36

Decision analysis approach to prioritizing decommissioning alternatives  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A decision-analysis tool has been developed to assist utilities in performing high-level economic analysis of decommissioning strategies that explicitly address uncertainty and risk. This paper describes economic analysis of decommissioning activities and priorities for decision making for a shut down nuclear power plant. This decision-analysis tool represents the first step in developing a generic decision-support tool to aid utilities in their decommissioning planning process for operating plants. Decommissioning of commercial nuclear plants in the United States is estimated to cost electric utilities and their rate-payers hundreds of millions of dollars per plant over the next several decades. In addition, since decommissioning activities will take place over as many as 60 yr, the range of uncertainty in the various cost components is very large. Understanding the effects of these uncertainties, accounting for alternative timing scenarios, and making better overall decisions can provide high value to utilities by helping to reduce the total economic impact of decommissioning activities.

Wood, C.J.; Gjerde, A.R.

1994-12-31

37

Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization`s future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability.

Menke, M.M. [Strategic Decision Group, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Co., La Habra, CA (United States)

1994-12-31

38

Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

2002-01-01

39

Decision support system for economic value of irrigation water  

Science.gov (United States)

The mismatch between the supply and demand, inequitable distribution and the over irrigation of water consuming crops are the main constraints that are faced in the implementation of the integrated water resources management in Egypt. With water scarcity, the problem under consideration is that the current cropping pattern is not economically efficient in the utilization of the available water resource. Moreover, in consequence of the importance of the agricultural sector to the national economies, it is necessary to be aware of the economic performance of water use in the crops production. The scope of this study is to develop economic value of irrigation water maps of Egypt. The objective of the study is carried out by acquiring a Decision Support System for economic value of irrigation water of Egypt. This Decision Support System is applied for developing economic value maps for the irrigation water that is used for cultivating 45 crops under cereal, fiber, legumes, and vegetables, herbalist, and forages categories at each governorate of Egypt in year 2008 and 2009. The crops that achieve the highest and lowest economic value of irrigation water at each governorate of Egypt were identified. The reasons of the variations in the economic value of irrigation water at the governorates of Egypt were determined. The developed Decision Support System could be used yearly as a tool for demonstrating a picture about the economic value of irrigation water for the decision makers in the areas of water resources and agriculture. The developed economic value of irrigation water maps can be used in proposing a cropping pattern that maximizes the economic value of irrigation water in each governorate of Egypt.

El-Gafy, Inas; El-Ganzori, Akram

2012-06-01

40

Making Rational Decisions in Economics - The Role of Sunk and Marginal Costs  

Science.gov (United States)

This JiTT exercise uses a real-life example to pose a question to students about the nature of "rationality" as typically used in economics. In this case, the focus is on fixed vs. marginal costs and the use of marginal analysis by economists to make "rational" economic decisions. This example is also used to illustrate how to use JiTT in economics.

Simkins, Scott

 
 
 
 
41

Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS) form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System) to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate).

Ion ISTUDOR; Luminita DUTA

2010-01-01

42

Pathological gambling in Parkinson's disease: Subthalamic oscillations during economics decisions.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Pathological gambling develops in up to 8% of patients with Parkinson's disease. Although the pathophysiology of gambling remains unclear, several findings argue for a dysfunction in the basal ganglia circuits. To clarify the role of the subthalamic nucleus in pathological gambling, we studied its activity during economics decisions. We analyzed local field potentials recorded from deep brain stimulation electrodes in the subthalamic nucleus while parkinsonian patients with (n?=?8) and without (n?=?9) pathological gambling engaged in an economics decision-making task comprising conflictual trials (involving possible risk-taking) and non conflictual trials. In all parkinsonian patients, subthalamic low frequencies (2-12 Hz) increased during economics decisions. Whereas, in patients without gambling, low-frequency oscillations exhibited a similar pattern during conflictual and non conflictual stimuli, in those with gambling, low-frequency activity increased significantly more during conflictual than during non conflictual stimuli. The specific low-frequency oscillatory pattern recorded in patients with Parkinson's disease who gamble could reflect a subthalamic dysfunction that makes their decisional threshold highly sensitive to risky options. When parkinsonian patients process stimuli related to an economics task, low-frequency subthalamic activity increases. This task-related change suggests that the cognitive-affective system that drives economics decisional processes includes the subthalamic nucleus. The specific subthalamic neuronal activity during conflictual decisions in patients with pathological gambling supports the idea that the subthalamic nucleus is involved in behavioral strategies and in the pathophysiology of gambling. © 2013 Movement Disorder Society.

Rosa M; Fumagalli M; Giannicola G; Marceglia S; Lucchiari C; Servello D; Franzini A; Pacchetti C; Romito L; Albanese A; Porta M; Pravettoni G; Priori A

2013-04-01

43

Latent effects decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

Cooper, J. Arlin (Albuquerque, NM); Werner, Paul W. (Albuquerque, NM)

2004-08-24

44

Assessment of the economic consequences of investment decisions companies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the article the features of investment decisions taking into account the existing capacity to attract a variety of sources of funding. We propose a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the capital structure of the investment project entity in financial and economic condition of the enterprise as a whole.

O.Yu. Shilova

2011-01-01

45

Assessment of the economic consequences of investment decisions companies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In the article the features of investment decisions taking into account the existing capacity to attract a variety of sources of funding. We propose a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the capital structure of the investment project entity in financial and economic condition of the ...

O.Yu. Shilova

46

Decision methods in risk analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Measurement of risk in terms of the frequency and severity of events is discussed, and some attributes of risk are mentioned. Next, some of the approaches available for estimating event frequency and severity are explored. Several ideas and methods appropriate for application to decisions in reliability and risk analysis are presented. These include optimization methods, trade-off studies, statistical decision theory, sensitivity studies, breakeven studies and cost-benefit studies. Comparisons of the methods and the kind of decision problems for which each is appropriate are briefly covered. It is concluded that methods are available for treatment of the simpler engineering risk decisions, but further development and education are required for more complex problems.

Thomas, J.M. (Failure Analysis Associates, Palo Alto, CA (USA))

1982-08-01

47

Initial Decision and Risk Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-29

48

The Eect of Aect on Economic and Strategic Decision Making  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The standard economic model of decision making assumes a decision maker makes her choicesto maximize her utility or happiness. Her current emotional state is not explicitly considered.Yet there is a large psychological literature that shows that current emotional state, in particularpositive a#ect, has a signi cant e#ect on decision making. This paper o#ers a way to incorporatethis insight from psychology into economic modeling. Moreover, this paper shows that thissimple insight can parsimoniously explain a wide variety of behaviors.Keywords: A#ect, morale, emotion.JEL: B41, D99, C70, C73, D81.1 IntroductionA moment s introspection will convince most people that their decisions are in uenced, in part, bytheir mood. For instance, the decisions we make when happy are not always the same as those wemake when unhappy. Nor is this merely an impression: There is a large psychological literaturebased on experiments that nds a relationship between a#ect what non-psychologists mi...

Benjamin E. Hermalin; Alice M. Isen

49

The Effect of Affect on Economic and Strategic Decision Making  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The standard economic model of decision making assumes a decision maker makes her choicesto maximize her utility or happiness. Her current emotional state is not explicitly considered.Yet there is a large psychological literature that shows that current emotional state, in particularpositive a#ect, has a signi cant e#ect on decision making. This paper o#ers a way to incorporatethis insight from psychology into economic modeling. Moreover, this paper shows that thissimple insight can parsimoniously explain a wide variety of behaviors.Keywords: A#ect, morale, emotion.JEL: B41, D99, C70, C73, D81.1 IntroductionA moment s introspection will convince most people that their decisions are in uenced, in part, bytheir mood. For instance, the decisions we make when happy are not always the same as those wemake when unhappy. Nor is this merely an impression: There is a large psychological literaturebased on experiments that nds a relationship between a#ect what non-psychologists mi...

Benjamin E. Hermalin; Alice M. Isen

50

Evaluating sites for energy facilities using decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The paper deals with multicriteria decision making for the evaluation of sites for energy facilities using decision analysis. The analysis of complex siting problems is intended to help decision makers make responsible decisions and to provide logic and documentation supporting the decision for regulatory authorities, shareholders in companies involved, and the public. To achieve this, the analysis must address those features causing the siting complexity. These features include incommensurable environmental and economic impacts resulting from any decision, significant uncertainties about those impacts, knowledge from many disciplines necessary to describe the possible impacts, and the requirement to integrate all of the impact information in the evaluation process using value judgements. The decision analysis approach for siting is designed to address these features. Decision analysis is based on a set of logical principles. It provides procedures to obtain the information about possible economic, health, safety, environmental, socioeconomics, and political impacts of each siting alternative. Some of these procedures concern the systematic elicitation of necessary professional judgement and all include expression of uncertainties. Another aspect of decision analysis is the theory and procedures to quantify the value judgements necessary for apppraising impacts. These are all integrated in the methodology to evaluate sites and conduct sensitivity analysis. 1 drawing.

Keeney, R.L.; Carlsen, A.J. (ed.)

1987-01-01

51

Complementary cognitive capabilities, economic decision making, and aging.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults' higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making "traits"-including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants' greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Li Y; Baldassi M; Johnson EJ; Weber EU

2013-09-01

52

Complementary cognitive capabilities, economic decision making, and aging.  

Science.gov (United States)

Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults' higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making "traits"-including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants' greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved). PMID:24040999

Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J; Weber, Elke U

2013-09-01

53

Medical decision analysis: renovascular hypertension  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A decision analysis is presented for the choice of diagnostic workup and therapeutic intervention in a patient with hypertension possibly caused by renal artery stenosis. The outcome values are expressed as life expectancies. The strategy chosen is the one that maximizes life expectancy. 24 refs.; 4 figs.; 2 tabs.

1988-01-01

54

Do economic evaluations of targeted therapy provide support for decision makers?  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

PURPOSE: Decision makers must make decisions without complete information. That uncertainty can be decreased when economic evaluations use local data and can be quantified by considering the variability of all model inputs concurrently per international evaluation guidelines. It is unclear how these recommendations have been implemented in evaluations of targeted cancer therapy. By using economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab, we have assessed the extent to which decision support recommendations were adopted. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Published economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab treatment in early-stage breast cancer were examined as an established example of targeted therapy. Canadian, United Kingdom, and US economic evaluation guidelines were reviewed to establish extraction criteria. Extraction characterized the use of effectiveness evidence and local data sources for model parameters, sensitivity analysis methods (scenario, univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic) and uncertainty representation (ie, cost-effectiveness plane, scatterplot, confidence ellipses, tornado diagrams, cost-effectiveness acceptability curve). RESULTS: Fifteen economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab were identified in the literature. Local data were used to estimate costs (15 of 15) and utilities rarely (two of 15) but not trastuzumab efficacy. Univariate sensitivity analysis was most common (12 of 15), whereas probabilistic analysis was less frequent (10 of 15). Two thirds of all studies provided visual representation of results and decision uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Authors of adjuvant trastuzumab economic evaluations rarely use local data beyond costs. Quantification of uncertainty and its representation also fell short of guideline recommendations. This review demonstrates that economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab, as an example of targeted cancer therapy, can be improved for decision-making support.

Ferrusi IL; Leighl NB; Kulin NA; Marshall DA

2011-05-01

55

Do economic evaluations of targeted therapy provide support for decision makers?  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

OBJECTIVE: Decision makers must make decisions without complete information. That uncertainty can be decreased when economic evaluations use local data and can be quantified by considering the variability of all model inputs concurrently per international evaluation guidelines. It is unclear how these recommendations have been implemented in evaluations of targeted cancer therapy. By using economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab, we have assessed the extent to which decision support recommendations were adopted. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review. METHODS: Published economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab treatment in early-stage breast cancer were examined as an established example of targeted therapy. Canadian, United Kingdom, and US economic evaluation guidelines were reviewed to establish extraction criteria. Extraction characterized the use of effectiveness evidence and local data sources for model parameters, sensitivity analysis methods (scenario, univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic), and uncertainty representation (ie, cost-effectiveness plane, scatterplot, confidence ellipses, tornado diagrams, cost-effectiveness acceptability curve). RESULTS: Fifteen economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab were identified in the literature. Local data were used to estimate costs (15 of 15) and utilities rarely (2 of 15) but not trastuzumab efficacy. Univariate sensitivity analysis was most common (12 of 15), whereas probabilistic analysis was less frequent (10 of 15). Two-thirds of all studies provided visual representation of results and decision uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Authors of adjuvant trastuzumab economic evaluations rarely use local data beyond costs. Quantification of uncertainty and its representation also fell short of guideline recommendations. This review demonstrates that economic evaluations of adjuvant trastuzumab, as an example of targeted cancer therapy, can be improved for decision-making support.

Ferrusi IL; Leighl NB; Kulin NA; Marshall DA

2011-05-01

56

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.  

Science.gov (United States)

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

57

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

Kenrick DT; Griskevicius V; Sundie JM; Li NP; Li YJ; Neuberg SL

2009-10-01

58

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

59

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models  

Science.gov (United States)

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Attanasi, E. D.; Coburn, T. C.; Freeman, P. A.

2007-01-01

60

Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision  

Science.gov (United States)

In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

Stabler, Thomas R.; Dinan, Frank J.

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
61

Economic Analysis of Transnational Education  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher…

Lien, Donald

2008-01-01

62

Decision making in uncertain times: what can cognitive and decision sciences say about or learn from economic crises?  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Economic crises bring to the fore deep issues for the economic profession and their models. Given that cognitive science shares with economics many theoretical frameworks and research tools designed to understand decision-making behavior, should economists be the only ones re-examining their conceptual ideas and empirical methods? We argue that economic crises demonstrate different forms of uncertainty, which remind cognitive scientists of a pervasive problem: how best to conceptualize and study decision making under uncertainty.

Meder B; Le Lec F; Osman M

2013-06-01

63

Decision making in uncertain times: what can cognitive and decision sciences say about or learn from economic crises?  

Science.gov (United States)

Economic crises bring to the fore deep issues for the economic profession and their models. Given that cognitive science shares with economics many theoretical frameworks and research tools designed to understand decision-making behavior, should economists be the only ones re-examining their conceptual ideas and empirical methods? We argue that economic crises demonstrate different forms of uncertainty, which remind cognitive scientists of a pervasive problem: how best to conceptualize and study decision making under uncertainty. PMID:23711466

Meder, Björn; Le Lec, Fabrice; Osman, Magda

2013-06-01

64

An economic theory of patient decision-making.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

Stewart DO; DeMarco JP

2005-01-01

65

An economic theory of patient decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making. PMID:16578942

Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

2005-01-01

66

The impact of depression on social economic decision making.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Although the role of emotion in social economic decision making has been increasingly recognized, the impact of mood disorders, such as depression, on such decisions has been surprisingly neglected. To address this gap, 15 depressed and 23 nondepressed individuals completed a well-known economic task, in which they had to accept or reject monetary offers from other players. Although depressed individuals reported a more negative emotional reaction to unfair offers, they accepted significantly more of these offers than did controls. A positive relationship was observed in the depressed group, but not in controls, between acceptance rates of unfair offers and resting cardiac vagal control, a physiological index of emotion regulation capacity. The discrepancy between depressed individuals' increased emotional reactions to unfair offers and their decisions to accept more of these offers contrasts with recent findings that negative mood in nondepressed individuals can lead to lower acceptance rates. This suggests distinct biasing processes in depression, which may be related to higher reliance on regulating negative emotion.

Harlé KM; Allen JJ; Sanfey AG

2010-05-01

67

The role of health economic analyses in vaccine decision making.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Beginning in the 20th century with the consideration of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the US, the cost effectiveness became a topic of discussion when this vaccine was being considered for universal use by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization practices (ACIP). In 2008, the ACIP began using formal criteria for the presentation of such data and their inclusion in ACIP discussions. More recently, the US Institute of Medicine has recommended that health economic considerations play a primary role in the prioritization of future vaccine for development. However, such analyses can be biased towards vaccines that provide economic benefit rather than those that reduce severe morbidity and mortality. This is because the economic impact of minor common events that result in medical utilization or time lost from work for parents can outweigh the economic impact of severe morbidity and mortality. Thus diseases with a low mortality and morbidity but with a common clinical manifestation such as the common cold could be prioritized over vaccines against diseases such as meningococcal sepsis where the morbidity and mortality associated with each case is very high, but there is no associated common clinical syndrome. Thus the use of cost effectiveness analyses as a 'gating criteria' to decide which vaccines should be developed or routinely used runs the risk of transforming vaccines into primarily a tool for achieving cost savings within the health care system rather than a public health intervention targeting human suffering, death and disability. It is the purpose of this article to review the framework under which health economic evaluations can be undertaken, to review the experience with and reliability of such analyses, and to discuss the potential negative implications of the use of health economic analyses as a primary decision making tool.

Black S

2013-08-01

68

Economic analysis of IGCC  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle) has the most prospect among clean coal technologies. It has high efficiency but high unit investment. An evaluation of the economics of IGCC, in terms of payoff period and FIRR (financial internal rate of return) is presented, which includes factors such as unit investment, efficiency of electric power supply and price of electricity. 4 tabs.

Ye Yongsong; Xie Danmei [Central China Electric Power Group Company, Wuhan (China). Technology Center

1999-11-01

69

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

During 1994 the workgroup `Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S. [Nuclear Analytics and Engineering Rossendorf, Inc. (Germany)

1995-06-01

70

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

71

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

2006-01-01

72

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

2006-12-15

73

Multicriteria decision analysis with influence diagram / decision tree models  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A case study has been performed to determine how multiple attributes as risk and cost criteria can be used for comparing severe accident management strategies for nuclear power plants. A mixed influence diagram/decision tree modelling technique has been used to model the strategies, combining the benefits of both separate techniques. It is concluded that multiple attributes like individual risk, group risk and strategy implementation costs can be addressed. A full-scope multicriteria decision analysis has been performed. (orig.).

1997-01-01

74

Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

We present the findings of a literature survey on decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling. Surveyed studies are classified according to the decision analysis technique used and by application area. It has been found that decision making under uncertainty is the most important application technique and energy planning and policy analysis is the most common application area. The results of a multiple attribute analysis on suitability and actual level of usage of each decision analysis technique for energy and environmental applications are also presented. (author).

1995-01-01

75

Risk analysis as a decision tool  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP).

1985-01-01

76

Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

2011-11-15

77

Decision strategy research: system analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

2000-01-01

78

Decision strategy research: system analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

Carle, B

2000-07-01

79

Decision Analysis in Plastic Surgery: A Primer  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision analysis modeling can help plastic surgeons systematically evaluate competing strategies in complex clinical decisions. The aim of this paper is to introduce the decision analysis technique and discuss its essential components in an effort to apply best available evidence for modeling treatment decisions. The following components of the decision analysis technique are discussed in detail: 1) the clinical question is designed; 2) a model is created to incorporate possible treatment strategies and relevant outcomes; 3) probabilities and outcome values are assigned to the model; 4) the model is analyzed and the best strategy is identified; and 5) sensitivity analysis is performed to test the robustness of the model. In the era of evidence-based medicine, decision analysis is an important tool for plastic surgeons to become familiar with.

Sears, Erika Davis; Chung, Kevin C.

2010-01-01

80

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

1995-01-01

 
 
 
 
81

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA).

James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

1995-11-01

82

A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In this paper we aim to develop a multidimensional decision-making model that would be more effective debt management to reduce them.

Riana Iren RADU

2011-01-01

83

Analysis of Investment Decision by Nigerian Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs)  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Decisions taken by Pension Fund Administrators whether to invest in a particular asset class or not depend upon relative importance of different factors. The relative importance of these factors and the interactions among decisions taken by PFAs has remained unknown to the contributors. Therefore, this study is designed to examine factors affecting investment decision in PFAs. This research work examined the factors that influence investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs. The study also evaluated investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs based on both qualitative and quantitative factors.Primary data were used for this research, which were generated through the use of questionnaire. Simple random sampling technique was used to select respondents from five PFAs in Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using factor analysis.The result of the study indicates that three factors were considered by PFA managers when making investment decisions: Economic, Risk and Security of real estate factors. The study concluded that National Pension Commission should be a bit flexible in its regulatory restriction of investment areas of PFAs to enhance a better investment decision making process. The study therefore, recommended that PFAs should use reward structure to ensure accountability of those that are in charge of investment decision making.Key words: Investment; Decision making; Pension Fund Administrator; Factor analysis; National pension commission

Emmanuel TSADO; Umar GUNU

2011-01-01

84

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  

Science.gov (United States)

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the US Department of Commerce, is the self-proclaimed "nation's accountant." BEA provides figures on the national, regional and international economic accounts. National accounts data include gross domestic product (GDP), input-output accounts, and gross product by industry. Regional accounts data include information on gross state product and state personal income, while international economic accounts include information on exports, imports and capital flows to and from the United States. The site also contains articles explaining how the accounts are calculated.

1998-01-01

85

Decision-tree construction and analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision-tree construction and analysis indicate the quantitative occurrence of sulfate-reducing bacteria in a groundwater basin. The decision-tree analysis allowed determination of the most important measured variables (discriminators) associated with the occurrence of sulfate-reducing bacteria. Those variables may be used to improve reliability and validity of the tree. Statistical validation of endpoint data (leaves) is described, and decision trees are presented that increase the understanding of individual wells and hypothesize causes for sulfate-reducing bacteria.

Murphy, P.; Olson, B.H. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

1996-02-01

86

Techno-Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

1997-12-31

87

Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit.

1991-01-01

88

Biogas in agriculture. [Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The anaerobic digestion and its conditions are briefly described. The different feed materials are described and an estimation of the total biomass resources in Denmark is given. The characteristics of biomass and its conversion to heat and electricity are mentioned. Based on the actual technological level the different types of plants, their advantages and disadvantages are analysed. The safety of biogas plants and the possibilities of their connection to existing, traditional power plants are briefly described. 3 biogas plants are analysed. Based on known technology and the actual energy and economic conditions, the lower limits is estimated for the size of farms being able to establish profitable biogas plants. An estimation is made of the expected future biogas market in a 20-year period. Two types of farms are selected for an economic analysis and energy balance sheets for these farms are given. The total energy effect is calculated for the totally realised market. An economic analysis is made on the basis of today's energy prices, price rises, rate of interest, and costs. It is supplemented with a sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows, that under the given conditions biogas plants are able to compete with traditional individual power plants. The economic analysis is supplemented with calculations of the impact of the extension of biogas on economy, employment, security of supply, and environment.

Groen, G. (Carl Bro A/S); Parsborg, M. (Jordbrugsoekonomisk Institut)

1980-04-15

89

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

1980-01-01

90

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

1995-01-01

91

ECONOMIC PSYCHOLOGICAL FIELD OF INTUITION IN STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available We all make decisions almost every day in our active life. This force can be observed by the operation of organizations and companies. It is impossible to modify the outcomes of our bad decisions, or no way revise at all. Several decision making processes and methods are exist with the help of coming to better decisions. The intuition is also essential, because many decisions be influenced by it. This paper deals with the reliability of the above mentioned dual influence: intuition and decision making processes through practical examples.

BODNÁR Zoltán

2011-01-01

92

Economic analysis of fusion breeders  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included.

Delene, J.G.

1985-01-01

93

Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Decision Support Systems (DSS) form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to ...

Ion ISTUDOR; Luminita DUTA

94

Cardinal priority ranking based decision making for economic-emission dispatch problem  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper deals with the economic emission dispatch (EED) problem relating to real and reactive power scheduling of thermal power generating units. The formulated EED problem is solved using weighting method to generate non-inferior solutions which allows explicit trade-offs between objective levels for each non-inferior solutions. Fuzzy decision making methodology is exploited to decide the generation schedule. To access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained via cardinal priority ranking (CPR) of the objectives. The cardinal priority ranking is constructed in the functional space and then transformed into the decision space, so the cardinal priority ranking of objectives relate the decision maker’s preferences to non-inferior solutions through normalized weights. Regression analysis is performed between the cardinal priority ranking and simulated weights to decide the ‘best’ compromised solution. Decoupled load flow analysis is performed to find the loss coefficients and transmission losses. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on IEEE 11-bus system which comprises 3-generators.

Lakhwinder Singh; J.S. Dhillon

2009-01-01

95

Requalification of offshore structures. Decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Theoretical description of Bayesian decision theory for engineering decisions is given including a discussion on how to formulate the so-called utility function which in this report is chosen to be related to economical costs and benefits. Further, some general applications of statistical decision theory for design and operation of e.g. offshore structures are discussed. Because of the large economical impacts which can be related to operation of some types of structural systems (e.g. inspection and repair of offshore structures) it is great interest to have methods which can be used to determine cost optimal planning of experiments/measurements and decisions related to e.g. inspections and repairs. As mentioned above it is very important to have accurate and numerically effective methods to evaluate probabilities of different events and of expectations. Some probabilistic methods, such as FORM/SORM and simulation are described for time in-variant and time variant reliability problems. It is shown how sensitivity analyses can be performed for the optimal decisions with respect to various input parameters. (ln)

Dalsgaard Soerensen, J. [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark); Engelund, S. [COWI Raadgivende Ingenioerer A/S, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-05-01

96

Economic analysis: A basic primer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Medical knowledge is advancing at an incredible rate. This rapid increase in the fundamental understanding of disease states has led to some important breakthroughs in care over the past ten years and will undoubtedly lead to untold more. At the same time that we are being presented with more options for diagnosis and treatment, governments around the world are fighting to reduce deficit spending and inflation. As a direct result of this combination of reduced spending and increased options for care, medical professionals are being asked to provide more effective care more efficiently. The randomized control trial may be the best way to determine the effectiveness of different options, however, only a full economic analysis can help decide which option is more efficient. This paper is intended to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the methods used to perform a full economic analysis.

Doig G

2003-01-01

97

Economic analysis of fuel recycle  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time.

Juhn, P.E.

1985-01-01

98

Decision analysis for deteriorating structures  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions.

2005-01-01

99

Radiological decision aiding using multiattribute analysis techniques  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Multiattribute analysis techniques for aiding complex decision making and their use in the optimization of radiological protection problems is briefly discussed. The analysis begins with the identification of the set of options or available solutions to the problem. Options are compared by evaluating their performance with reference to a number of factors or attributes which are relevant to the decision. In order that options may be compared, scores are assessed in terms of how valued each score is to the decision maker. Changes in preference along a particular scale, or value functions, vary between individuals or preference groups. Weighting the values associated with each attribute then leads to the preferred option. (UK).

1991-01-01

100

Radiological decision aiding using multiattribute analysis techniques  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Multiattribute analysis techniques for aiding complex decision making and their use in the optimization of radiological protection problems is briefly discussed. The analysis begins with the identification of the set of options or available solutions to the problem. Options are compared by evaluating their performance with reference to a number of factors or attributes which are relevant to the decision. In order that options may be compared, scores are assessed in terms of how valued each score is to the decision maker. Changes in preference along a particular scale, or value functions, vary between individuals or preference groups. Weighting the values associated with each attribute then leads to the preferred option. (UK).

Aumonier, S.; Barraclough, I.M. (National Radiological Protection Board, Chilton (United Kingdom))

1991-02-01

 
 
 
 
101

Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ?50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios.

1997-01-01

102

Using of fuzzy and imitation models and cluster analysis for decision of marketing tasks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Actuality of using of some economic-mathematical methods at the decision of marketing tasks is considered in the article. The examples of using of fuzzy evaluation, cluster analysis and imitation modelling in marketing are presented here.

Borisova, Tetyana Myhaylivna; Bryndzya, Zinoviy Fedorovych

2011-01-01

103

Analysis of Decision-making Support Systems  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the term «decision-making support system» from the perspective of different researchers. A number of advantages and disadvantages of each system was detected and author's vision of the issue was offered. In addition, the analysis and systematization of the decision-making support systems (DSS) classification was made. Considerable attention was attached to the hierarchy of decision-making support systems, its elements and functional relations between them. The results enable the author to build the model of DSS hierarchy.

Olena M. Derykot

2013-01-01

104

The use of economics in WTO Appellate Body decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

While WTO disputes involve legal rights and obligations, economics often can help the Appellate Body (AB) make sense of the dispute and the implications of ambiguous language in the Agreements. This paper reviews three examples of where the economics could have provided a clearer basis for the AB’s ...

PRUSA, Thomas J.

105

Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1994-06-01

106

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis.

Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R

2008-12-15

107

The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

1984-01-01

108

Bayesian Analysis on Quantitative Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Quantitative decision-making is thought of most often as an objective exercise based only on the cold analysis of verifiable hard facts. Intuition and even experience tends to be excluded from quantitative decision-making on the grounds that such information is subjective in character, and, thus, has no role in quantitative analysis. Quantitative decision-making is based in large part on the ability of decision-makers to make inferences about the probabilities of occurrence of future events from the analyses of objective data (Markowitz and Xu 60-69). One means of improving probability estimates in such predictions, however, is the application of Bayes' Theorem (Peebles 17-19). Classical statistics are concerned with the analysis of sampled data. The analysis of sampled data permits the researcher to make inferences concerning total populations, with the exclusion of any personal judgment or opinions. To the contrary, Bayesian statistics purposefully incorporates informed judgments into the analyses of data. Informed judgments are based on sound experience. While such judgments may be termed intuition, they are not irrational. This research examines the role of the inclusion of informed judgments based on experience into quantitative decisionmaking. This approach to quantitative analysis is called Bayesian statistics or Bayesian analysis (Zellner 5).

Elliot Reedy (MSc)

2010-01-01

109

Economic System Analysis of Coal Preconversion Technology.  

Science.gov (United States)

On August 1, 1973, Fluor Utah, Inc., began performing a comprehensive economic system analysis of coal preconversion technology. The study, in two phases, intends to identify and define the physical, technical, social, economic, legal and environmental pr...

1975-01-01

110

Economic analysis of mineral and energy investments  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In all industries, including the mineral and petroleum industries, economic analysis of potential investment projects is done to select the projects that will give maximum future value from the investment of available capital. Economic analysis refers to evaluation of the profit generating potential of projects. Discounted cash flow analysis is one method for economic analysis. This technique analyzes inflows and outflows of money over the life of the project. Cash flow definitions and calculation assumptions, escalation and inflation, uncertainty and risk, cash investment versus leveraged investment analysis and important economic analysis situations are discussed.

Stermole, F.J.

1983-12-01

111

Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS) which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

Scheres Anouk; Sanfey Alan G

2006-01-01

112

The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today that investment hold a great significance because of the dynamics of the economic development and economic growth, and also because of the great inequalities, given by the information asymmetry. In this paper we first proposed to explore the determinants of investment that lead to making the investment decision and in the second part we analyze the competitive economic environment with regard to Romania and its implications for economic growth and investment decision.

Raluca Andreea POPA; Matei CR?CIUN

2011-01-01

113

Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

Roomana Naz Bhutta; Jahanzaib Haider

2013-01-01

114

Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

1983-01-01

115

Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

2012-01-01

116

A DECISION TREE APPLICATION IN TOURISM BASED REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The reasons for the deficient performance of Ionian Islands tourism in terms of in coming revenues expressed in USD and return on equity capital invested on hotels is explored. The answers to the questioner of management of the hotels surveyed were analyzed with the use of the Decision Tree tool. The issue of competitiveness of the tourism product was assessed. The development of alternative forms of tourism is proposed as a means of improving competitiveness and restoring sustainability in the sector.

Panayiotis G.Curtis; Dimitris X. Kokotos

2009-01-01

117

Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners) regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

Holmes Richard D; Steele Jimmy; Exley Catherine E; Donaldson Cam

2011-01-01

118

A decision weight analysis of transition bandwidths.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

A decision weight analysis is used to investigate transition bandwidths [Berg (2007). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 121, 3639-2645]. The psychophysical task is similar to a standard profile analysis experiment except that the spacing of the tones comprising the stimuli is linear and very narrow (e.g., 20 Hz). An increment in the level of the central tone constitutes the signal. Pitch cues and single channel energy cues are degraded with randomization procedures. Thresholds increase as the number of tones comprising the stimulus (n) increases up to a transition bandwidth and then decrease or stay constant with further increases in n. It is proposed that the transition bandwidth reflects a discrete change in the underlying process, with a temporal process (e.g., envelope processor) dominating for stimulus bandwidths less than the transition bandwidth and a process of spectral profile analysis at wider bandwidths. Estimates of decision weights support the proposal.

Berg BG

2013-03-01

119

Economic analysis of production bottlenecks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

Lawrence Stephen R.; Buss Arnold H.

1995-01-01

120

Economic aspects of using activation analysis facilities  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] A method of estimating the economic efficiency of installations for neutron-activation analysis is described. The principal indices of economic efficiency of such installations are considered to be change in the extraction coefficient of main product; change in reagent consumption; and costs of analysis of unit product. The capital investments are calculated on the installation, reduced costs, and period during which capital investments are compensated. Calculations show the use of the activation analysis installation in various branches of the Soviet industry to be economically efficient. The examples of considerable economic effect obtained from using a set of automatic devices for measuring boron concentration are given

1978-01-01

 
 
 
 
121

Application of decision analysis to drug selection for formulary addition.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Decision analysis (DA) is a quantitative method for making decisions, incorporating both probabilistic data and value judgments, and clinical and economic outcomes. The P & T Committee at the Mary Hitchcock Memorial Hospital used this technique to aid in selection of a third-generation cephalosporin for formulary addition. Cost-specific data from this hospital, together with clinical data derived from the medical literature, and a panel of infectious disease specialists were used to compare costs associated with antibiotic regimens of three infections. Results show that ceftizoxime is the least costly treatment for hospital-acquired pneumonia and sepsis of unknown origin, whereas metronidazole plus gentamicin is the least costly regimen for intra-abdominal infections. This demonstrates that drugs with higher acquisition costs can, in some cases, be less expensive than drugs with lower acquisition costs when the total cost of drug therapy is considered.

Kresel JJ; Hutchings HC; MacKay DN; Weinstein MC; Read JL; Taylor-Halvorsen K; Ashley H

1987-07-01

122

Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

2000-01-01

123

DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS IN THE STUDY OF ROMANIAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we propose using the discriminant analysis for the identification of a typology for the Romanian counties by the economic development level. In this purpose, we used a set of variables that characterize the economic and social development. The treatment of the data is done with the SPSS software. The results obtained in this paper can be used as arguments in making decisions regarding the harmonization of the Romanian regions and the allocation of the investments in appropriate counties and regions.

ELISABETA JABA; D?NU? VASILE JEMNA; DANIELA VIORIC?; CHRISTIANA BRIGITTE BALAN

2007-01-01

124

Economic analysis of short-rotation forestry  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The principles and the technology of short-rotation forestry are described, with some emphasis on the new concept of wood-grass, an annually harvested tree crop, production. The model used for the economic analysis is described and the analysis and findings are presented. Wood-grass technology is identified as having substantial economic as well as technological potential. (MHR)

Shen, S.Y.; Jones, P.C.; Vyas, A.

1982-01-01

125

Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness.

Orient JM

1985-02-01

126

Health economic analysis of screening  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified). Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

Krauth, Christian

2008-01-01

127

Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision; Effet de serre modelisation economique et decision publique  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

Giraud, P.N

2002-03-01

128

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

129

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

1994-01-01

130

Medical decision analysis in infectious diseases.  

Science.gov (United States)

Medical decision analysis (MDA) has played an important role in assisting infectious disease physicians make decisions associated with varying levels of complexity. Clinicians are often uncomfortable with some aspects of MDA, particularly when utilities are used as outcome measures. However, as the present paper outlines, MDA may use other outcome variables, including costs and disease complications. In this context, this explicit, reproducible analytic framework is an important tool in the area of infectious diseases, and is frequently applied to many situations, including cost effectiveness analyses, studies involving assessment of risks versus benefits of preventive and treatment strategies, and other situations. The objective of this paper is to assist infectious diseases clinicians to understand better the role of MDA in clinical practice. In this regard, the principles of MDA are reviewed and a common clinical example is used for illustrative purposes. PMID:18159308

Allen, U D

2000-11-01

131

Medical decision analysis in infectious diseases.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Medical decision analysis (MDA) has played an important role in assisting infectious disease physicians make decisions associated with varying levels of complexity. Clinicians are often uncomfortable with some aspects of MDA, particularly when utilities are used as outcome measures. However, as the present paper outlines, MDA may use other outcome variables, including costs and disease complications. In this context, this explicit, reproducible analytic framework is an important tool in the area of infectious diseases, and is frequently applied to many situations, including cost effectiveness analyses, studies involving assessment of risks versus benefits of preventive and treatment strategies, and other situations. The objective of this paper is to assist infectious diseases clinicians to understand better the role of MDA in clinical practice. In this regard, the principles of MDA are reviewed and a common clinical example is used for illustrative purposes.

Allen UD

2000-11-01

132

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

2007-01-01

133

Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulatio...

Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

134

Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is overpopulation...

Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

135

Economic analysis of secondary trial data.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Clinical trials may furnish data to conduct economic analyses. An economic analysis requires us to identify all opportunity costs associated with the intervention over the time horizon chosen for the analysis and enumerate the improvements in benefits from the intervention of interest. We review the basic steps used when performing economic studies based on secondary analysis of data from clinical trials using examples from myocardial infarction studies. Different types of economic analyses and the potential contributions of Markov modeling are described. Issues of measuring quality of life, patient utilities, cost of care, and potential sources of cost data are reviewed. The interpretation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios is discussed and economic benchmarks for defining good and poor value interventions are provided.

Simpson KN; Tilley BC

2012-01-01

136

Economic analysis of same-sex marriage.  

Science.gov (United States)

This article applies the neoclassical microeconomic analysis of marriage as developed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker to same-sex marriage. The objective is to demonstrate that the economic analysis of marriage supports allowing same-sex marriage, and that same-sex marriages would strengthen the incentive to marry, increase the efficiency of marriage markets, provide for more children to be raised in two-parent optimum environments, and benefit states economically overall. The article concludes with an overview of the economic impact of same-sex marriages on states based on the analysis, data and fiscal information currently available from researchers and economists in the field. PMID:15189788

Portelli, Christopher J

2004-01-01

137

Economic analysis of same-sex marriage.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This article applies the neoclassical microeconomic analysis of marriage as developed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker to same-sex marriage. The objective is to demonstrate that the economic analysis of marriage supports allowing same-sex marriage, and that same-sex marriages would strengthen the incentive to marry, increase the efficiency of marriage markets, provide for more children to be raised in two-parent optimum environments, and benefit states economically overall. The article concludes with an overview of the economic impact of same-sex marriages on states based on the analysis, data and fiscal information currently available from researchers and economists in the field.

Portelli CJ

2004-01-01

138

NOBEL LAUREATES IN ECONOMICS: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ??????????? ???????? ?? ?????????: ?????????????? ??????  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the article, we present the procedure for nomination and approval of the award winners from the Swedish state-owned bank in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Nobel Prize in economics). As well as the analysis of works by winners of subjects, the patterns for the Nobel Prize, and its components are shown

Barannikov A. A.; Sigidov Y. I.

2012-01-01

139

Criteria for making decisions about adoption of new technologies: a test of a diffusion-economic constraint model  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study was conducted to investigate factors that influence the type of criteria used in making decisions about the adoption of new technologies and techniques. An electric theoretical perspective which combined elements of both the diffusion of innovations and the economic constraint models was constructed and used in testing the research hypotheses. The theoretical model developed basically posits that individuals with higher levels of awareness and with greater access to material resources will perceive the efficiency criteria factors as important in making adoption decisions. Nine independent variables were selected to represent the awareness attributes of the diffusion model and the enabling factors of the economic constraint perspective. Agriculture education, farming experience, exposure to information sources, and age were selected to represent the traditional diffusion of innovations model. The independent variables chosen to represent the economic constraint perspective were type of farm specialization, tractor size, parents engaged in farming, number of tractors owned, and number of acres farmed. The respondents generally perceived the economic efficiency factors incorporated into the adoption criteria index as being very important. The correlation analysis revealed that five of the nine hypothesized associations were accepted but the amount of explained variance indicated the model is not a good predictor of the adoption criteria index scores.

Hassan, S.S.

1984-01-01

140

Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

Adrian ZUGRAVU; Liliana Mihaela MOGA

2009-01-01

 
 
 
 
141

Twenty Years of Using Economic Evaluations for Drug Reimbursement Decisions: What Has Been Achieved?  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The objective of this article is to examine the impact of economic evaluation on the reimbursement process for pharmaceuticals. The changes in the structure of reimbursement policies necessary to incorporate economic evaluation have been accomplished without major difficulty in most jurisdictions. However, several methodological differences in international guidelines for economic evaluation exist, only some of which can easily be justified. A number of beneficial changes in reimbursement processes have also been observed, such as a trend toward requiring the measurement of more meaningful clinical end points and increased engagement between manufacturers, drug regulators, and payers. A consistent finding in studies of reimbursement decisions is that economic considerations have been influential, second only to the strength of the clinical evidence for the drug of interest. The impact of economic evaluation on the allocation of health care resources is hard to ascertain because little is known about the extent to which reimbursement decisions actually lead to changes in health care practice. However, there is evidence that economic evaluation has assisted price negotiations and enabled reimbursement agencies to target drugs to those patients who will benefit the most.

Drummond M

2013-08-01

142

THE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF MODERN ECONOMIC SYSTEMS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Opportunities of application of general scientific methods for the analysis of structure of economic systemsin conditions of their transformation are studied. The special attention is given sociocultural to elements as factorwhich determines specificity of all social systems.

Zoya HALUSHKA

2008-01-01

143

Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: a neuropsychological approach.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, for example, a person's constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, for example, luck or coincidence. This is known as the "correspondence bias." This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to the ventromedial pFC (vmPFC). Given the role of the vmPFC in social cognition, we predicted that vmPFC is necessary for the normal correspondence bias. In our experiment, consistent with expectations, healthy (n = 46) and brain-damaged (n = 30) comparison participants displayed the correspondence bias during economic decision-making and invested no differently when given dispositional or situational information. By contrast, vmPFC patients (n = 17) displayed a lack of correspondence bias and invested more when given dispositional than situational information. The results support the conclusion that vmPFC is critical for normal social inference and the correspondence bias. The findings help clarify the important (and sometimes disadvantageous) role of social inference in economic decision-making.

Koscik TR; Tranel D

2013-08-01

144

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND THE INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY ACCOUNTANCY IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSTANTIATING THE FINANCIAL DECISIONS AT THE LEVEL OF AN ECONOMICAL ENTITY  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The present paper outlines the relationship that exists between the financial management and the accountancyscience regarding decision making mostly of financial order.The paper called “The relationship between financial management and the information supplied byaccountancy in the process of substantiating the financial decisions at the level of an economical entity ” is structuredinto three parts, starting from an general view of what financial management is, followed by the information suppliedby accountancy used in making mostly financial decisions, because it consists the purpose of this paper also .The third part refers to the types of decisions which can be made as a consequence of analysis of aneconomical entity from the financial management point of view but also of the information from accountancy. From thefinancial management point of view, decisions are clearly state d, the specialty literature offering a plenitude ofinformation regarding types of decisions, on what are them substantiated and what is their concrete form after applyingthem. From the accountancies point of view decisions are based on the interpretation s of the annual financialstatements, which offer us a clear and faithful image over the analyzed economical entity.The finality of the paper are the conclusions based on the analysis, which is composed of a summaryappreciation of the types of decisions that can be taken in an economical entity after analyzing the information fromaccountancy and having at hand the organization of the financial management of the economical entity. Also, we wantto outline the importance of having an organized financial m anagement whose results to take into account in theeconomical entity, as well as the importance of correctly producing the annual financial statements, these being of agreat influence, both positive and negative, of the financial decision making system.

Irina CHIRITA; Claudia GRIGORA? -ICHIM

2009-01-01

145

Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

146

CONCEPTS, MODELS, TECHNIQUES AND PRACTICES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available „Information gives you power” is the slogan that guides companies nowadays, the world competition beingcarried out in the filed of using the most efficient information and the newest technologies and instruments ofcommunication. The informational system of th e financial- economic analysis has as purpose the satisfaction of all theinformation requests at the level of the society that allows a detailed information about all the activities that aredeveloped. The modern system means the operation of a large vol ume of economic information from and for all thelevels of activity of the enterprise. That is why, the financial and economic power of the most important companies isgiven by the their capacity to detain, control and use information in order to reach the desired objectives.No matter the level at which the management activity is carried out implies the exact cognition of the concretesituations from the studied unit in order to establish the complex of causes and factors that determine it, fact that clai msthe carrying out of an economic - financial analysis that represents a map of reality that will have to be taken intoconsideration in the future decisions.The financial- economic analysis must be approached as a discipline, profession, management inst rument and preliminary process to any entrepreneurial initiative

Alina BALAN

2009-01-01

147

Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Environmental awareness and the recent environmental policies have forced many electric utilities to restructure their practices to account for their emission impacts. One way to accomplish this is by reformulating the traditional economic dispatch problem such that emission effects are included in the mathematical model. The economic/environmental dispatch problem is a multi-objective non-linear optimization problem with constraints. This study presents a hybrid approach to solve the combined economic-emission dispatch problem (CEED). In the first stage, a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) is employed to approximate the set of Pareto solution through an evolutionary optimization process. In the subsequent stage, a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach is adopted to rank these solutions from best to worst and to determinate the best solution in a deterministic environment with a single decision maker. This hybrid approach is tested on a six-unit system to illustrate the analysis process in present analysis. Pareto frontiers are obtained and the ranking of Pareto solutions is based on entropy weight and TOPSIS method. Results obtained show that the hybrid approach has a great potential in handling multi-objective optimization problem. (author)

Xuebin, Li [Research and Development Center, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430064 (China)

2009-05-15

148

75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee  

Science.gov (United States)

...and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting...are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

2010-02-26

149

78 FR 10599 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee  

Science.gov (United States)

...and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of...are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

2013-02-14

150

76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee  

Science.gov (United States)

...and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of...are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

2011-02-22

151

77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee  

Science.gov (United States)

...and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting...are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

2012-10-05

152

Economic analysis of nuclear reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

1979-01-01

153

Swank decision: economic interest in coal not dependent on lease terminability  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taxpayers investing in a mineral in place in anticipation of receiving income from its extraction were denied the percentage depletion deduction if their leases have a 30-day termination under current law. Conflict over the economic effect of terminability on the lessee was resolved in United States vs Swank. The Court held that the lessee retained an economic interest in his coal mine despite the right of termination. The decision has implications for tax planning and litigation as well as for judicial activism. 64 references. (DCK)

Rosenblum, J.

1983-01-01

154

Economic analysis of EBT reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors

1977-10-29

155

Southern New Mexico low temperature geothermal resource economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report presents an overview of geothermal resource development for three-low temperature (i.e, <200{degree}F) sites in southern New Mexico: the Lower Animas Valley, the Las Cruces East Mesa, and Truth or Consequences. This report is intended to provide potential geothermal developers with detailed information on each site for planning and decision making purposes. Included in the overview for each site is both a full site characterization and an economic analysis of development costs associated with the construction and operation of both geothermal and fresh water systems at each of the three locations. The economic analysis focuses on providing utility services to a commercial greenhouse because greenhouse operations are among the most likely candidates for use of the resource base. 9 tabs., 8 figs.

Fischer, C.L.; Whittier, J.; Witcher, J.C.; Schoenmackers, R.

1990-08-01

156

Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities), in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc.).

Elena Fregonara

2009-01-01

157

Risk analysis and regulatory safety decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The rationale for application of the proposed Swiss probabilistic safety criteria to existing and future generations of nuclear power plants is provided. These proposed criteria form the basis of a framework for regulatory and operational safety decision making, using uncertain, plant specific probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) results. For existing plants, the approach proposes to use probabilistic safety criteria to determine if major plant specific backfits are justifiable on the basis of risk benefit analyses. Less significant procedural modifications (i.e. additional emergency operating procedures) are proposed to be evaluated using relative safety gains determined on the basis of a selected number of uncertain PSA calculated risk measures. The new plants are expected to achieve a much higher standard of safety, and therefore must be able to accommodate severe accidents within their design basis envelope, thus reducing and/or eliminating the perceived severe accident uncertainties via innovative accident prevention and mitigation design features. (author). 6 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab.

1996-01-01

158

A decision impact, decision conflict and economic assessment of routine Oncotype DX testing of 146 women with node-negative or pNImi, ER-positive breast cancer in the UK  

Science.gov (United States)

Background: Tumour gene expression analysis is useful in predicting adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer patients. This study aims to examine the implications of routine Oncotype DX testing in the UK. Methods: Women with oestrogen receptor positive (ER+), pNO or pN1mi breast cancer were assessed for adjuvant chemotherapy and subsequently offered Oncotype DX testing, with changes in chemotherapy decisions recorded. A subset of patients completed questionnaires about their uncertainties regarding chemotherapy decisions pre- and post-testing. All patients were asked to complete a diary of medical interactions over the next 6 months, from which economic data were extracted to model the cost-effectiveness of testing. Results: Oncotype DX testing resulted in changes in chemotherapy decisions in 38 of 142 (26.8%) women, with 26 of 57 (45.6%) spared chemotherapy and 12 of 85 (14.1%) requiring chemotherapy when not initially recommended (9.9% reduction overall). Decision conflict analysis showed that Oncotype DX testing increased patients' confidence in treatment decision making. Economic analysis showed that routine Oncotype DX testing costs £6232 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Conclusion: Oncotype DX decreased chemotherapy use and increased confidence in treatment decision making in patients with ER+ early-stage breast cancer. Based on these findings, Oncotype DX is cost-effective in the UK setting.

Holt, S; Bertelli, G; Humphreys, I; Valentine, W; Durrani, S; Pudney, D; Rolles, M; Moe, M; Khawaja, S; Sharaiha, Y; Brinkworth, E; Whelan, S; Jones, S; Bennett, H; Phillips, C J

2013-01-01

159

A decision impact, decision conflict and economic assessment of routine Oncotype DX testing of 146 women with node-negative or pNImi, ER-positive breast cancer in the U.K.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Tumour gene expression analysis is useful in predicting adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer patients. This study aims to examine the implications of routine Oncotype DX testing in the U.K. METHODS: Women with oestrogen receptor positive (ER+), pNO or pN1mi breast cancer were assessed for adjuvant chemotherapy and subsequently offered Oncotype DX testing, with changes in chemotherapy decisions recorded. A subset of patients completed questionnaires about their uncertainties regarding chemotherapy decisions pre- and post-testing. All patients were asked to complete a diary of medical interactions over the next 6 months, from which economic data were extracted to model the cost-effectiveness of testing. RESULTS: Oncotype DX testing resulted in changes in chemotherapy decisions in 38 of 142 (26.8%) women, with 26 of 57 (45.6%) spared chemotherapy and 12 of 85 (14.1%) requiring chemotherapy when not initially recommended (9.9% reduction overall). Decision conflict analysis showed that Oncotype DX testing increased patients' confidence in treatment decision making. Economic analysis showed that routine Oncotype DX testing costs £6232 per quality-adjusted life year gained. CONCLUSION: Oncotype DX decreased chemotherapy use and increased confidence in treatment decision making in patients with ER+ early-stage breast cancer. Based on these findings, Oncotype DX is cost-effective in the UK setting.

Holt S; Bertelli G; Humphreys I; Valentine W; Durrani S; Pudney D; Rolles M; Moe M; Khawaja S; Sharaiha Y; Brinkworth E; Whelan S; Jones S; Bennett H; Phillips CJ

2013-06-01

160

Regional economic input and small area economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this research was to provide forecasts of the variables necessary to determine possible future levels of regional wood utilization for the TVA region. Second, the research was extended to subregional areas where the impacts that could result from the operation of fuel alcohol plants were estimated along with the impacts of increased use of biomass for residential heating. Long-term demand for forest products is determined by such factors as the future level of contract construction activity and growth in the paper, and lumber and wood industries. For these industries and others, the TVA regional economic simulation model (RESM) was used to produce long-run forecasts of employment, earnings, and gross product. For the subregional analysis, traditional export base multiplier analysis was used for impact estimation. 40 refs., 1 fig., 16 tabs.

Bohac, C.E.

1984-04-01

 
 
 
 
161

Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE`s record of decision)  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of {approximately}50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios.

Reid, R.L.; Miller, J.W.

1997-04-01

162

Selecting a decision model for economic evaluation: a case study and review.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The increased use of modelling techniques as a methodological tool in the economic evaluation of health care technologies has, in the main, been limited to two approaches--decision trees and Markov chain models. The former are suited to modelling simple scenarios that occur over a short time period, whilst Markov chain models allow longer time periods to be modelled, in continuous time, where the timing of an event is uncertain. In the context of economic evaluation, a less well developed technique is discrete event simulation, which may allow even greater flexibility. Taking the economic evaluation of adjuvant therapies for breast cancer as an illustrative example, the process of building a decision tree, a Markov chain model, and a discrete event simulation model are described. The potential benefits and problems of each approach are discussed. The suitability of the modelling techniques to economic evaluations of health care programmes in general is then discussed. This section aims to illustrate the areas in which the alternative modelling methods may be most appropriately employed.

Karnon J; Brown J

1998-10-01

163

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

2002-01-01

164

The evaluation and use of economic evidence to inform cancer drug reimbursement decisions in Canada.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness evidence is increasingly considered in the reimbursement decisions of pharmaceuticals. In some jurisdictions such as the UK and Canada, pharmaceutical manufacturers are required to submit economic evaluations when seeking reimbursement. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to describe the role of economic evidence in the cancer drug review process in Canada, and to investigate the nature of problems encountered in the review and interpretation of economic evidence used in the process. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective review of cancer drug review meeting minutes and reviewers' comments on pharmacoeconomic studies submitted to the oncology drug review process in Canada. DATA SOURCES: We used pharmacoeconomic reviewers' reports and relevant cancer drug review expert advisory committee meeting minutes during the first year of the review process (April 2007 to March 2008). RESULTS: Fifteen economic submissions were reviewed. One-third of the studies had flaws significant enough that the advisory committee could not determine the cost effectiveness of the drugs from the results. The common issues outlined by the reviewers and committee were related to the uncertainty of comparative clinical benefits, quality of life and costs. The reviewers felt that few analyses provided sufficient sensitivity analyses around key variables to assess the robustness of results. Most problems identified by reviewers are simple to fix and do not involve advanced methods. CONCLUSIONS: Canada has a separate review process for making cancer drug funding recommendations, and this process uses both clinical and economic evidence. The committee could not determine the value for money of the drugs from several of the submitted pharmacoeconomic analyses. Transparent analyses and detailed critique of evidence are crucial to the use of economic evidence in reimbursement decisions. Rigorous evaluation is resource intensive and may benefit from a shared drug review process among several jurisdictions.

Yong JH; Beca J; Hoch JS

2013-03-01

165

Social economic decision-making across the lifespan: An fMRI investigation.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Recent research in neuroeconomics suggests that social economic decision-making may be best understood as a dual-systems process, integrating the influence of deliberative and affective subsystems. However, most of this research has focused on young adults and it remains unclear whether our current models extend to healthy aging. To address this question, we investigated the behavioral and neural basis of simple economic decisions in 18 young and 20 older healthy adults. Participants made decisions which involved accepting or rejecting monetary offers from human and non-human (computer) partners in an Ultimatum Game, while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The partners' proposals involved splitting an amount of money between the two players, and ranged from $1 to $5 (from a $10 pot). Relative to young adults, older participants expected more equitable offers and rejected moderately unfair offers ($3) to a larger extent. Imaging results revealed that, relative to young participants, older adults had higher activations in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) when receiving unfair offers ($1-$3). Age group moderated the relationship between left DLPFC activation and acceptance rates of unfair offers. In contrast, older adults showed lower activation of bilateral anterior insula in response to unfair offers. No age group difference was observed when participants received fair ($5) offers. These findings suggest that healthy aging may be associated with a stronger reliance on computational areas subserving goal maintenance and rule shifting (DLPFC) during interactive economic decision-making. Consistent with a well-documented "positivity effect", older age may also decrease recruitment of areas involved in emotion processing and integration (anterior insula) in the face of social norm violation.

Harlé KM; Sanfey AG

2012-06-01

166

Soo TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The British Columbia Forest Service is now conducting a timber supply review to examine the amount of timber available for harvesting in timber supply areas (TSAs). This report is one of four reports prepared for each area. The assessment examines the impacts of three harvest forecasts based on the timber supply analysis using a multiple accounts analysis that focuses attention on a range of values derived from the forest resource. The implications of the harvest forecasts are evaluated in terms of economic development, community, and First Nations concerns at the TSA level and economic development, environment, and government revenue impacts at the provincial level.

NONE

1994-12-31

167

ANALYSIS OF MANAGEMENT INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this work is the analysis of the influence of management on the economic efficiency. The working methods used in preparing of this material is the analysis, synthesis and observation applied following consultation with specialized literature. Research has demonstrated that a systemic approach to management contribute to the effectiveness and measurement of this system in economic practice. As a conclusion we could rely that the management is a primary middle, and efficiency is the major result of human activity.

Liliana CONDRA?CHI

2012-01-01

168

A decision analysis of the appropriate R and D strategy for enchanced oil recovery (EOR)  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes a decision analysis of the appropriate level of national aggregate research and development expenditure on Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) R and D. The analysis concludes that under the assumptions used a high level of R and D effort on EOR R and D is justified. The analysis also suggests that larger EOR RandD programs entail less overall economic risk than smaller programs by serving as a hedge against high world oil prices.

Phillips, R.L.; Nesbitt, D.M.

1983-01-01

169

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

2000-01-01

170

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

2000-12-01

171

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA.

1995-01-01

172

Use of ecosystem services economic valuation for decision making: questioning a literature blindspot.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (ESV) is often seen as a tool that can potentially enhance our collective choices regarding ecosystem services as it factors in the costs and benefits of their degradation. Yet, to achieve this, the social processes leading to decisions need to use ESV effectively. This makes it necessary to understand if and how ESV is or is not used by decision-makers. However, there appears to be a literature blindspot as to the issue of the Use of Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (UESV). This paper proposes a systematic review on UESV in peer-reviewed scientific literature. It shows that this literature gives little attention to this issue and rarely reports cases where ESV has been put to actual use, even though such use is frequently referred to as founding the goal and justification of ESV. The review identifies three categories of potential UESV: decisive, technical and informative, which are usually mentioned as prospects for the valuations published. Two sets of hypotheses are examined to explain this result: either the use of ESV is a common practice, but is absent from the literature reviewed here; or the use of ESV is effectively rare. These hypotheses are discussed and open up further avenues of research which should make the actual use of ESV their core concern.

Laurans Y; Rankovic A; Billé R; Pirard R; Mermet L

2013-04-01

173

Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis  

CERN Multimedia

This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

Criminisi, A

2013-01-01

174

An Analysis of Ethanol Investment Decisions in Thailand  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the decision to invest in building ethanol plants in Thailand. We analyze the effects of economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies on ethanol investment using discrete response and fixed effects regression models. Results show that the main factor that affects the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat is the number of ethanol plants already in the changwat. The number of ethanol plants already in the changwat has a significant negative effect on the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat, which suggests that potential investors are deterred by local competition in input and output markets.

Nisal Herath Mudiyanselage; C.-Y. Cynthia Lin; Fujin Yi

2013-01-01

175

A Decision Aid Approach for Optimisation Problems Involving Several Economic Functions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Many concrete real life problems ranging from economic and business to industrial and engineering may be cast into a multi-objective optimisation framework. The redundancy of existing methods for solving this kind of problems susceptible to inconsistencies, coupled with the necessity for checking inherent assumptions before using a given method, make it hard for a nonspecialist to choose a method that fits well the situation at hand. Moreover, using blindly a method as proponents of the hammer principle (when you only have a hammer, you want everything in your hand to be a nail) is an awkward approach at best and a caricatural one at worst. This brings challenges to the design of a tool able to help a Decision Maker faced with these kinds of problems. The help should be at two levels. First the tool should be able to choose an appropriate multi-objective programming technique and second it should single out a satisfying solution using the chosen technique. The choice of a method should be made according to the structure of the problem and to the Decision Maker’s judgment value. This paper is an attempt to satisfy that need. We present a Decision Aid Approach that embeds a sample of good multi-objective programming techniques. The system is able to assist the Decision Maker in the above mentioned two tasks.

Moeti Joseph Rangoaga; Monga Kalonda Luhandjula; Stanislas Sakera Ruzibiza

2012-01-01

176

Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

Bateman IJ; Harwood AR; Mace GM; Watson RT; Abson DJ; Andrews B; Binner A; Crowe A; Day BH; Dugdale S; Fezzi C; Foden J; Hadley D; Haines-Young R; Hulme M; Kontoleon A; Lovett AA; Munday P; Pascual U; Paterson J; Perino G; Sen A; Siriwardena G; van Soest D; Termansen M

2013-07-01

177

Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom.  

Science.gov (United States)

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity. PMID:23828934

Bateman, Ian J; Harwood, Amii R; Mace, Georgina M; Watson, Robert T; Abson, David J; Andrews, Barnaby; Binner, Amy; Crowe, Andrew; Day, Brett H; Dugdale, Steve; Fezzi, Carlo; Foden, Jo; Hadley, David; Haines-Young, Roy; Hulme, Mark; Kontoleon, Andreas; Lovett, Andrew A; Munday, Paul; Pascual, Unai; Paterson, James; Perino, Grischa; Sen, Antara; Siriwardena, Gavin; van Soest, Daan; Termansen, Mette

2013-07-01

178

Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales.Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construction of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

Ludy A Parada-Vargas; Alejandra Taborda-Restrepo

2011-01-01

179

An economic analysis of fusion breeders  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

1985-01-01

180

An economic analysis of fusion breeders  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included.

Delene, J.G.

1985-07-01

 
 
 
 
181

Morice TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Morice Timber Supply Area (TSA) occupies nearly 1.5 million hectares in central interior British Columbia. This report first presents a profile of the TSA, including environmental setting, demographics, employment, communities, forest industry activity, other local industries such as tourism, agriculture, and mining, and First Nations. It then describes the timber supply status in the TSA, including the harvesting land base and annual allowable cut, and reviews the economic, environmental, community, and First Nations impacts in the TSA and the province resulting from three timber harvest scenarios. The appendix includes a description of the economic impact analysis methodology used.

NONE

1996-07-01

182

Initial use of portable monitoring versus polysomnography to confirm obstructive sleep apnea in symptomatic patients: an economic decision model.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: When using portable (level III and level IV) studies to "rule in" obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in symptomatic patients, the pre-test probability (P) needs to be sufficiently high to minimize patients with negative tests who require full polysomnography. METHODS: We used a theoretical decision analysis model to assess the pre-test probability above which it would be appropriate to use portable studies to rule in disease in symptomatic patients with suspected OSA. For the base case, we considered a symptomatically sleepy patient referred with a probability of OSA of P. We determined the lower threshold of P appropriate for a clinical algorithm based upon an initial ambulatory study compared to initial diagnosis with PSG by comparing costs using the PSG algorithm with a diagnostic algorithm involving initial assessment with a portable study. RESULTS: In our base case, the pre-test probability above which portable testing would be less costly than initial diagnostic PSG would be 0.47. When an initial split night study was compared to portable testing, the pre-test probability above which portable testing was more economically attractive was greater (0.68). Values of P, however, varied considerably depending on values of many variables, including costs of diagnostic testing and CPAP compliance. CONCLUSIONS: Using a decision model, we have developed a theoretical framework to ascertain the pre-test disease probability above which portable studies would be economically attractive as an initial test in the assessment of patients with suspected OSA.

Ayas NT; Fox J; Epstein L; Ryan CF; Fleetham JA

2010-03-01

183

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.  

Science.gov (United States)

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer. PMID:22420272

Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

2012-02-01

184

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

Vannatta AR; Hauer RH; Schuettpelz NM

2012-02-01

185

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

1995-10-01

186

Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized.

1992-01-01

187

Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users to apply evidence-based medicine to make informed decisions when confronted with difficult clinical scenarios. A decision tree depicts potential alternatives and outcomes involved with a given decision. Probabilities and utilities are used to quantify the various options and help determine the best course of action. Sensitivity analysis allows users to explore the uncertainty of data on expected clinical outcomes. The decision maker can thereafter establish a preferred method of treatment and explore variables which influence the final clinical outcome. The present paper reviews the technique of decision analysis with particular focus on its application to clinical decision making.Keywords: decision analysis, patient preference, game theory, evidence-based medicine

Ilyas S Aleem; Hamza Jalal; Idris S Aleem; Adeel A Sheikh; Mohit Bhandari

2008-01-01

188

Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory  

CERN Multimedia

Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

Harp, Dylan R

2011-01-01

189

ENLARGING ON THE USE OF FINANCIAL-ACCOUNTING INFORMATION IN THE ECONOMIC DECISION MAKING PROCESS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The financial statement of a company is affected by its economic resources, by the financial structure, cash,solvency and its ability to adjust to changes within the environment in which it operates. The accounting information onthe economic resources, which the company controls and its ability to modify the resources, is useful in order to predictthe capacity of the company to generate liquid assets and their equivalents in the future.The accounting information regarding the financial structure is useful in order to predict the costs of the futureloans and to predict the way the profit and the treasury flows will be split between interested parties inside thecompany. The information is useful to predict the company success in obtaining new financing.Concretely, the financial activity contributes to run the economic activity from the capital Unit by establishingthe economic decision from the financial point of view and by direct intervention of the financial activity to start and toaccomplish the enterprise system self adjustment within the framework of the effective production process.

Alice Emilia ?ÎN??

2009-01-01

190

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical.

Lessard Chantale; Contandriopoulos André-Pierre; Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

2009-01-01

191

An economic analysis of communal goat production  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians.

P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; E.C. Webb

2012-01-01

192

Exaggerated intergroup bias in economical decision making games: differential effects of primary and secondary psychopathic traits.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Psychopathic personality traits are linked with selfish and non-cooperative responses during economical decision making games. However, the possibility that these responses may vary when responding to members of the in-group and the out-group has not yet been explored. We aimed to examine the effects of primary (selfish, uncaring) and secondary (impulsive, irresponsible) psychopathic personality traits on the responses of non-offending participants to the in-group and the out-group (defined in terms of affiliation to a UK University) across a series of economical decision making games. We asked a total of 60 participants to act as the proposer in both the dictator game and the ultimatum game. We found that across both tasks, those who scored highly for secondary psychopathic traits showed an elevated intergroup bias, making more generous offers toward members of the in-group relative to the out-group. An exaggerated intergroup bias may therefore represent a motivational factor for the antisocial behavior of those with elevated secondary psychopathic traits.

Gillespie SM; Mitchell IJ; Johnson I; Dawson E; Beech AR

2013-01-01

193

Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

1995-01-01

194

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

1997-12-01

195

Use of decision analysis to include uncertainty in risk assessments and regulatory decisions  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Management of ecological risks is essentially a decision problem. Given a particular management objective, a regulatory decision must be made that fully takes into account known information, as well as uncertainties in that information. This paper will review the method of decision analysis and illustrate its applicability to toxic substances. Decision analysis, originally developed in the field of business, is now being applied in other areas of resource management including fish and wildlife management because there, many examples have shown that it is inappropriate to use only the best ``point estimates`` of parameters in an analysis rather than taking uncertainty into account. There are 8 elements to decision analysis. (1) A management objective, such as minimizing the expected loss, provides a means of ranking actions. (2) The analysis will help choose among a set of alternative actions such as different quantitative values for some guideline for a toxic substance. (3) Uncertain states of nature may be included for a component such as a parameter reflecting the steepness of the dose-response relationship. (4) Probabilities must be stated for each of the alternative states of nature. These can be derived from the data through Bayesian statistical analysis. (5) A model is used to determine the consequences of each combination of states of nature and action. (6) A decision tree or decision table lays out the calculations in a systematic framework. Expected values of the measure of how well the management objective is met are calculated by weighting each state of nature by its respective probability of occurrence. (7) Alternative actions are then ranked based on these expected values. (8) A sensitivity analysis is done on the rank order of management actions to determine how robust the ranking is to the assumptions made and parameter values used.

Peterman, R. [Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, British Columbia (Canada). School of Resource and Environmental Management

1995-12-31

196

Resting-state functional connectivity predicts impulsivity in economic decision-making.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Increasing neuroimaging evidence suggests an association between impulsive decision-making behavior and task-related brain activity. However, the relationship between impulsivity in decision-making and resting-state brain activity remains unknown. To address this issue, we used functional MRI to record brain activity from human adults during a resting state and during a delay discounting task (DDT) that requires choosing between an immediate smaller reward and a larger delayed reward. In experiment I, we identified four DDT-related brain networks. The money network (the striatum, posterior cingulate cortex, etc.) and the time network (the medial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices, etc.) were associated with the valuation process; the frontoparietal network and the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex-anterior insular cortex network were related to the choice process. Moreover, we found that the resting-state functional connectivity of the brain regions in these networks was significantly correlated with participants' discounting rate, a behavioral index of impulsivity during the DDT. In experiment II, we tested an independent group of subjects and demonstrated that this resting-state functional connectivity was able to predict individuals' discounting rates. Together, these findings suggest that resting-state functional organization of the human brain may be a biomarker of impulsivity and can predict economic decision-making behavior.

Li N; Ma N; Liu Y; He XS; Sun DL; Fu XM; Zhang X; Han S; Zhang DR

2013-03-01

197

An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

1998-01-01

198

An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions.

Carlson, M.D.

1998-12-31

199

[Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. METHODS: A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. RESULTS: The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. CONCLUSION: The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

Park M; Choi S; Shin AM; Koo CH

2013-02-01

200

Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis is a report sponsored by the Research Development Statistics department of the Home Office, the UK government department of internal affairs for England and Wales. Researched and written for the purposes of discussion only, this report attempts to examine "migration in the round." It begins with background information including migration theory and trends. Then it offers a look at the current policy framework in the UK concerning the government's objectives in the highest levels and considers the social and economic outcomes of those policies. Finally, the report concludes with suggestions for further research and development. The report is divided into seven main chapters which cover aspects of migration including the economic theory of migration, the myths and realities of post-war migration, and the social and economic impact of UK policies as they relate to both the UK and to the migrants themselves. This well-written report provides an excellent base for those interested in issues involving UK government policies and migration.

 
 
 
 
201

Using decision trees to predict benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

In this article a concept is described in order to predict and map the occurrence of benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The approach consists of two work steps: (1) geostatistical analysis of abiotic measurement data and (2) calculation of benthic provinces by means of Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and GIS-techniques. From bottom water measurements on salinity, temperature, silicate and nutrients as well as from punctual data on grain size ranges (0-20, 20-63, 63-2,000 mu) raster maps were calculated by use of geostatistical methods. At first the autocorrelation structure was examined and modelled with help of variogram analysis. The resulting variogram models were then used to calculate raster maps by applying ordinary kriging procedures. After intersecting these raster maps with punctual data on eight benthic communities a decision tree was derived to predict the occurrence of these communities within the study area. Since such a CART tree corresponds to a hierarchically ordered set of decision rules it was applied to the geostatistically estimated raster data to predict benthic habitats within and near the EEZ.

Pesch R; Pehlke H; Jerosch K; Schröder W; Schlüter M

2008-01-01

202

Using decision trees to predict benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea.  

Science.gov (United States)

In this article a concept is described in order to predict and map the occurrence of benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The approach consists of two work steps: (1) geostatistical analysis of abiotic measurement data and (2) calculation of benthic provinces by means of Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and GIS-techniques. From bottom water measurements on salinity, temperature, silicate and nutrients as well as from punctual data on grain size ranges (0-20, 20-63, 63-2,000 mu) raster maps were calculated by use of geostatistical methods. At first the autocorrelation structure was examined and modelled with help of variogram analysis. The resulting variogram models were then used to calculate raster maps by applying ordinary kriging procedures. After intersecting these raster maps with punctual data on eight benthic communities a decision tree was derived to predict the occurrence of these communities within the study area. Since such a CART tree corresponds to a hierarchically ordered set of decision rules it was applied to the geostatistically estimated raster data to predict benthic habitats within and near the EEZ. PMID:17680336

Pesch, Roland; Pehlke, Hendrik; Jerosch, Kerstin; Schröder, Winfried; Schlüter, Michael

2007-08-07

203

Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

1991-01-01

204

Sunshine coast TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Sunshine Coast Timber Supply Area covers 1.12 million hectares in the Vancouver Forest Region. This document is one of the technical papers prepared for the Area`s timber supply review, and offers information on timber supply alternatives and their socio-economic implications. The document first profiles the Area, including its environmental setting, population, labor force, communities, forest sector and other local industry, and First Nations. It then reviews the current status of timber supplies in the Area, including the current forest management guidelines and allowable annual cut, and describes timber harvest forecasts under three scenarios. The final sections of the document analyze the socio-economic impacts on the Area, its First Nations, and the province of the timber harvest under the three scenarios. Appendices include a glossary and descriptions of the impact analysis methodologies.

NONE

1995-12-31

205

Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

1995-01-01

206

The timing of elective colectomy in diverticulitis: a decision analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Determining the optimal strategy for elective colectomy in patients with diverticular disease involves a balance of the morbidity, mortality, costs, and quality of life associated with both elective and expectant management. We used decision and cost analysis to simulate the clinical and economic outcomes after recovery from an episode of nonsurgically treated diverticulitis to determine the preferable management strategy. STUDY DESIGN: A Markov model was constructed to evaluate lifetime risks of death and colostomy, care costs, and quality of life associated with elective colectomy after subsequent episodes of diverticulitis. The analysis was from the payer's perspective, using hypothetical cohorts of 35- and 50-year-old patients who recovered from a nonsurgically treated diverticulitis episode. Probabilities of clinical events and costs for the base-case analysis were derived from a large cohort using a statewide administrative database and published estimates. RESULTS: Performing colectomy after the fourth rather than the second episode in patients older than 50 years resulted in 0.5% fewer deaths, 0.7% fewer colostomies, and saved US 1,035 dollars per patient. In younger patients, performing colectomy after the fourth episode compared with the first episode resulted in 0.1% fewer deaths, 2% fewer colostomies, and saved US 5,429 dollars per patient. Expectant management through three recurrent episodes with elective colectomy after the fourth episode was the dominant strategy across the full range of the variables tested in the sensitivity analysis compared with earlier intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that expectant management is associated with lower rates of death and colostomy and is cost-saving for both younger and older patients.

Salem L; Veenstra DL; Sullivan SD; Flum DR

2004-12-01

207

Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas/ Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstrações financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, (more) focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for managers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

Sant'anna, Paulo Roberto de; Longo, Orlando Celso; Barone, Francisco Marcelo; Cova, Carlos José Guimarães; Oliveira, Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de

2011-10-01

208

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Volodymyr Kharchenko; Tetyana Shmelova; Yuliya Sikirda

2011-01-01

209

Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes; Luís Alberto Duncan Rangel; Priscila Pereira Fernandes

2012-01-01

210

Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available Abstract in english The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surg (more) eons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

Gomes, Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro; Rangel, Luís Alberto Duncan; Fernandes, Priscila Pereira

2012-08-01

211

Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.).

1992-01-01

212

Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.

1988-01-01

213

Risk-based decision analysis of atmospheric emission alternatives to reduce ground water degradation on the European scale  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Environmental degradation due to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia from diffuse sources amounts to substantial costs to society and so do the alternatives to protect and restore the environment. Damage to ground water includes acidification, aluminum leaching, elevated concentrations of nitrate, and eutrophication. Monetary risk-based decision analysis (on a national scale) is applied to compare alternative actions designed to protect ground water from further degradation. This decision analysis uses simulations of nitrate and aluminum concentrations over a 15 year period with two reduction scenarios for sulfur dioxide, nitrate oxides, and ammonia, and results in estimates of economic uncertainty. For each alternative, an objective function is estimated including the implementation costs, the economic risk associated with failure according to the selected decision criteria, and the economic benefits related to the implementation. The decision criteria are based on the European Community drinking water quality standards for nitrate and aluminum. The study aims at incorporating the hydrogeologic uncertainty resulting from the propagation of errors from data input to model out put. A range of economic values has been applied to the ground water resource to study the sensitivity of the decision analysis to valuing ground water. The results indicate that higher reduction rates of the studied pollutants reduce the economic uncertainty but also lead to larger total costs. The study also indicates that the economic uncertainty may be equal to the total cost provided by the objective function. The contamination level of nitrate is much more responsive to the reduction scenarios than the aluminum concentration. For high, but not unrealistic, ground water valuing, the economic uncertainty makes the decision between the studied alternatives unclear.

Wladis, D.; Rosen, L.; Kros, H.

1999-12-01

214

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: A case study of lead free solder.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of lead-based bar solder and its non-lead based alternatives to examine the application of two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. It develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. MCDA methods offer a means for transparent, objective and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present. Integr Environ Assess Manag © 2013 SETAC.

Malloy TF; Sinsheimer PJ; Blake A; Linkov I

2013-05-01

215

An economic model for on-farm decision support of management to prevent infectious disease introduction into dairy farms.  

Science.gov (United States)

A more-closed farming system can be a good starting point for eradication of infectious diseases from within a herd. The economic implications of a more-closed farming system will not always be obvious to farmers. The management decisions are related to different parts of the farm and are farm-specific. To support these decisions, a model was developed of the economic consequences of a more-closed system (a simple static and deterministic design was used). The risk factors in the model were based solely on bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) but losses due to introduction of BVDV, L. hardjo, and S. dublin were added to the model. The model was verified and partly validated and a sensitivity analysis was done. The cost to one 55-cow dairy farm that refrained from purchasing cattle, provided protective clothing to professional visitors and a temporary employee, and built and maintained a double fence around 6 ha of land to prevent over-the-fence contacts was Dfl. 4495 over 5 years. The probability of disease introduction was decreased by 74%. The prevented losses for disease introduction amounted to Dfl. 7033 over 5 years (net benefits of Dfl. 2538 over 5 years).A more-closed system would be still beneficial when a sanitary barrier was used instead of just protective clothing, when the probability of introduction of infectious diseases was decreased, and when odds ratios in the model were replaced by more-conservative relative risks. The benefits became negative when a farm had to build and maintain a double fence around 12 ha instead of 6 ha, when the probability of introduction of all diseases was decreased by 50%, and when the estimations were based solely on BHV1. PMID:11535286

van Schaik, G; Nielen, M; Dijkhuizen, A A

2001-10-11

216

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

2000-01-01

217

Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-5%), and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%). Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58%) than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%). Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%). However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models employing expert opinion. Results of such models should be interpreted cautiously. The diversity of expert opinion should be recognised when policy options are debated.

Lubell Y; Staedke SG; Greenwood BM; Kamya MR; Molyneux M; Newton PN; Reyburn H; Snow RW; D'Alessandro U; English M; Day N; Kremsner P; Dondorp A; Mbacham W; Dorsey G; Owusu-Agyei S; Maitland K; Krishna S; Newton C; Pasvol G; Taylor T; von Seidlein L; White NJ; Binka F; Mills A; Whitty CJ

2011-01-01

218

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

219

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

1998-01-01

220

Uncertainty and risk from decision-tree analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision tree analysis is one of the standard devices for assessing the worth of an exploration opportunity in the hydrocarbon industry. Often just the expected value of the decision-tree is used to decide on the project: a positive expected value usually being a rationale for proceeding, a negative expected value being a rationale for not going ahead. Here we show that uncertainty on the expected value, also easily determinable from decision-tree analysis, is a major factor in evaluating the risk of going ahead with an exploration project. Reliance solely on the expected value can lead to decisions not to participate in exploration projects which have a relatively high risk but also a relatively good chance of being profitable - and this is particularly the case when the expected value is negative but much smaller in magnitude than the standard error in the expected value. (Author)

Lerche, I. [South Carolina Univ., Geological Sciences Dept., Columbia, SC (United States); MacKay, J.A. [Texaco Exploration, Bellaire, TX (United States)

1997-12-31

 
 
 
 
221

An introduction to financial and economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The study aims at giving a view of the different evaluation methods and improving their use when preparing project feasibility studies. The work is a study of the literature in the subject mainly provided by international financial institutions and development agencies. The conventional project evaluation methods, especially the internal rate of return and the net present value methods, are useful when preparing project feasibility studies. Sensitivity analysis is proved to be useful in evaluation of projects, where the basic information is uncertain. Risk analysis can be used in large projects involving many risks. The financial analysis has been the starting point for the economic appraisal, but factors that lead to distorted prices have been adjusted. Factors that cause problems for the evaluation are, for example, inflation, overvaluation of currency, wages and under-employment. The price distortion is adjusted by shadow pricing. The last section considers the central problem which arises when appraising the economic worth of new types of generating plant; namely, that the operating costs of each chosen plant, over its lifetime, both depend upon and help to determine the choice of new plant during that period. The paper considers the background to the problem and gives a graphical presentation of the method. The feasibility of energy projects is usually very sensitive to the price of electricity. The shadow price of electricity is the alternative cost for production or the long run marginal cost. The social impact (income distribution etc.) of the projects can be evaluated in theory, but in practice the statistics normally available are insufficient for rigorous analysis.

Norrbaeck, M.

1990-01-01

222

Commercialization of geopressurized geothermal resources: a decision analysis approach  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A fundamental determinant of the ultimate commercial potential of new energy technology and resources rests in the willingness of resource producing firms to invest in development of these resources. This study presents an analytical framework that is currently being employed in the evaluation of public incentives for accelerating the commercialization of geothermal geopressured resources in the United States. The framework is assembled from basic concepts of multiattribute decision analysis applied to investment decisions. 12 refs.

Blair, P.D.; Venkateshwara, B.

1980-01-01

223

Ranking hydroelectric power station projects with multicriteria decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The paper deals with ranking methods for hydroelectric power station projects with multicriteria decision analysis. 540 hydroelectric power projects are ranked by two methods. The first method is formal but improvised and leads to a ranking list which is backed by the Norwegian Government. The other is based on multicriteria decision making and made to throw critical light on the first one. The paper explains the differences and discusses the political and analytical reasons for them. 11 drawings, 2 tables.

Wenstoep, F.E.; Carlsen, A.J.; Carlsen, A.J. (ed.)

1987-01-01

224

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

1994-09-02

225

Investment analysis and decision support for gas transmission on Java  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The following three project appraisal aspects of investments in the natural gas infrastructure of Java, Indonesia, are considered: (1) the determination of a pricing policy that correctly reflects the role of natural gas in the total fuel mix; (2) the construction of a long term forecast for the demand for natural gas; and (3) the use of sensitivity analysis to support decision making in investment planning. The steps needed to determine aggregate demand per geographical area, denoted as demand area, are discussed. The potential demands per sector and per area are determined by the amount of energy that can be replaced by natural gas. To estimate the effective demand one needs the netback value of gas in the production processes, and the opportunity for natural gas to penetrate into the different segments of the market. Assuming that gas is available, and combining the pricing policy and the netback values, the effective demand per subsector and per geographical area can be determined. Adding up the results of the partial analyses results in the aggregate demand per geographical area. Also the potential supply by the different gas reserves is analyzed, and the cost of developing the reserves is determined. Then preliminary investment plans (transmission packages) are formulated. Based on the pricing policy and the cost evaluation, the effective supply per reserve is estimated. Adding up the effective supplies results in aggregate supply. After balancing demand and supply, the financial and economic Net Present Values of the proposed investment plans (transmission packages) are calculated. Different investment plans are compared, and the best one is chosen. Sensitivity analysis is used to further analyze the optimal investment plan

Van Groenendaal, W.J.H.

1994-12-09

226

Decision analysis of the appropriate R and D strategy for enhanced oil recovery (EOR)  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes a decision analysis of the appropriate level of national aggregate research and development expenditure on Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) R and D. The analysis concludes that under the assumptions used a high level of R and D effort on EOR R and D is justified. The analysis also suggests that larger EOR R and D programs entail less overall economic risk than smaller programs by serving as a hedge against high world oil prices. The work was sponsored by DOE, with special credit to Lewin and Associates and DFI. 7 references, 8 figures, 7 tables.

Nesbitt, D.M.; Phillips, R.L.

1983-01-01

227

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine.

Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

1982-02-01

228

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

1982-06-06

229

Economic analysis of American petroleum exploration  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A mathematical model, with 86% accuracy, has been developed to explain discoveries or additions to proven petroleum reserves. In the model, the quantity of petroleum discovered directly depends on property acquisition, exploration, and development expenditures. Also, petroleum discoveries indirectly depend on the petroleum stock remaining to be discovered. The empirical data base is a survey of corporate expenditure data for the years 1979-1982. Unlike most previous models in this field, this model is based on economic theory and economic production-function mathematics. Allowing a dual application of the model, not only is it useful for forecasting petroleum additions, but it also addresses some fundamental questions concerning petroleum exploration and discovery. Five primary questions concerning the structure of the American petroleum industry are: (1) Which firms are more efficient in petroleum exploration and discovery, large or small. (2) Are governmental lease policies efficient. (3) How should a firm optimally allocate its resources to maximize petroleum discoveries. (4) In what ways does a declining stock affect discoveries. (5) Have increasing prices effected a structural change in the petroleum exploration industry. The dual nature of the model, the explanatory accuracy, and the one-equation simplicity, all encourage increased application of this type analysis to the natural-resource industries.

Noll, T.

1985-02-01

230

[Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models].  

Science.gov (United States)

Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness. PMID:10719468

Golder, W

2000-01-01

231

[Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness.

Golder W

2000-01-01

232

An Economic Analysis of Capital Flight from Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Available estimates of capital flight from Nigeria have several important limitations. This study takes cognizance of these limitations in estimating and subsequent analysis of trends of capital flight flows in Nigeria for the periods 1970 -2004 using the residual method of estimation, including necessary adjustments to account for the influence of trade faking and exchange rates movements. The study further seeks to verify if capital flight is indeed an important concern to economic management in Nigeria by exploring various economic issues that existing body of theoretical and empirical literature had linked to capital flight. For most of the periods, capital flight estimates had positive sign, indicating that residents consistently took capital out of Nigeria. The study further documented that trade faking is an important means through which capital flight is effected in Nigeria, with evidences that confirmed the existence of financial revolving door relationship between capital flight and external indebtedness in Nigeria. The study emphasized the need for decisive policies to strengthen macroeconomic management and macro-organizational fundamentals. A rather flexible trade and exchange regimes that result in a lowering down of tariff duties, and a more market determined exchange rates, are likely to wipe out the incentives for fabrication of traded values of exports and imports.

Taiwo Olubanjo Ajilore

2010-01-01

233

Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT) to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA) of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA) was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach). The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV), even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

Ghassan F. Issa; Shaki M. Hussain; Hussein Al-Bahadili

2009-01-01

234

The Canadian climate change economic analysis forum  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A multi-year forum on the economic analysis of climate change was proposed. The objective of the forum would be to provide a process and structure for analyzing the benefits and costs of actions and policy options related to climate change protection. Politics, science, technology and society were listed as being the principal factors influencing climate change policy. Since each of these factors are subject to change, it was emphasized that an ongoing forum to help clarify assumptions, measures and analytic priorities would be beneficial. To validate the concept, a feasibility study was carried out, results of which are summarized. An organizational structure, a provisional business plan, and a multi-phased implementation plan are also provided. 2 figs.

Guthrie, B. [Conference Board of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

1998-09-01

235

Decision analysis of atmospheric fluidized bed combustion commercialization strategies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Atmospheric fluidized bed combustion (AFBC) development has been hampered by uncertainty and limited RandD resources. EPRI developed a framework to assist planners to evaluate RandD funding, and technical and market uncertainties. The study focused on the decision of when to ''freeze'' the design for the new technology in order to select a final design. Standard bed design and circulating bed design were involved. Specific alternatives were considered using a decision tree. The framework developed for commercialization decisions has four components: RandD options, technical acheivements, market use, and evaluation. A matrix of ''meet goal'' and ''miss goal'' options is illustrated where AFBC meets the goal of having better performance than pulverized coal. By use of probability regions, analysis supports proceeding with the CB pilot. Also, as CB will be a hedge against SB failure, results favor NOT freezing the decision.

Borison, A.B.

1982-06-01

236

Health economic analysis of adult deformity surgery.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Given the substantial growth in frequency and expense of spine deformity surgery, and the general economic landscape of the health care system, health economics research has an important role in the literature on adult spinal deformity (ASD). The purpose of this article is to provide an update on the current state of health economics studies in the ASD literature and to introduce areas in which health economics might play some additional role in future research on ASD.

McCarthy I; Hostin R; O'Brien M; Saigal R; Ames CP

2013-04-01

237

Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

1991-01-01

238

Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized.

Shauver MJ; Chung KC

2013-04-01

239

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

T. P. Karjalainen; P. M. Rossi; P. Ala-aho; R. Eskelinen; K. Reinikainen; B. Kløve; M. Pulido-Velazquez; H. Yang

2013-01-01

240

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Science.gov (United States)

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

2013-07-01

 
 
 
 
241

Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

1992-01-01

242

Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

Walter W. Kropp; James K. Lein

2012-01-01

243

AN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANIE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH CAPACITY  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The sustainable economic growth of companies constitutes a strategic management objective as it is ofgeneral interest. The companies’ accrued net worth and their capacity to generate profit result in increasedcompetitiveness. This paper presents a general model to analyze the companies’ economic growth grounded on theinvested capital profitability that is illustrated in an adequate case study. The described model highlights the majorfactors influencing economic growth at a microeconomic level as well as the direction they act, providing thepossibility to better substantiate decisions that serve this purpose.

Camelia BURJA; Vasile BURJA

2009-01-01

244

Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. METHODS: A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. RESULTS: Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines.

Tappenden P; Chilcott J; Brennan A; Squires H; Glynne-Jones R; Tappenden J

2013-06-01

245

Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers.

Kubbinga M; Langguth P; Barends D

2013-07-01

246

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

247

Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between unemployment rate and economic growth. Results: The empirical results reveal that Okun?s law cannot be confirmed for Jordan. Thus, it can be suggested that the lack of economic growth does not explain the unemployment problem in Jordan. Conclusion: The study recommended that economic policies related to demand management would not have an important effect in reducing unemployment rate. Accordingly implementation of economic policies oriented to structural change and reform in the labor market would be more appropriate by policy makers in Jordan.

Fuad M. Kreishan

2011-01-01

248

A decision support system for energy policy analysis. Technical report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper proposes a new approach to energy policy analysis. After a brief review of energy models, a novel decision support system based upon a modal data base, and a collection of programs which operate upon the data base. The paper concludes with an illustrative example.

Pick, R.A.; Whinston, A.B.; Koehler, G.

1980-07-01

249

Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington.

1994-01-01

250

Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.).

Sinkko, K.

1991-09-01

251

A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

1998-01-01

252

Toward image analysis and decision support for ultrasound technology.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Ultrasound is a low cost and efficient method of detecting diseases and abnormalities in the body. Yet there is a lack of precision and reliability associated with the technology, partly due to the operator dependent nature of ultrasound scanning. When scanning is performed to an agreed protocol, ultrasound has been shown to be highly reliable. This research aims to minimize these limitations that arise during ultrasound training, scanning and reporting by developing and evaluating an image analysis and decision support system that can aid the decision making process. We hypothesize that this intervention will likely increase the role of ultrasound in diagnosis when compared with other imaging technologies, particularly in low resource settings.

Crofts G; Padman R; Maharaja N

2013-01-01

253

Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks  

CERN Multimedia

The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

2004-01-01

254

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

255

Site selection for nuclear plants using fuzzy decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuzzy decision analysis is proposed as a method of site selection for nuclear power plants. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses fuzzy numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in site selection. Fuzzy numbers can take into account the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as site meteorology, population growth, cooling water availability, etc. Fuzzy ranking is achieved using fuzzy arithmetic and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the method. (orig.).

1991-01-01

256

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

257

Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Decision Support Systems: The Context of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available  This research aimed to examine the main factors that influence the successful adoption of Decision SupportSystems (DSS) in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA). It investigated a set of factors which are;System Characteristics (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU) & Perceived usefulness (PU)), Technical Aspects(information technology infrastructure & information systems interoperability), and Organizational Aspects (topmanagement support (TMS), management style (MS), & organizational structure (OS)).A questionnaire was distributed to a sample of (161) respondents to collect primary data, & based on aconvenience sample the response rate was about 79%. Furthermore, the findings were analyzed using theStatistical Package for Social Software (SPSS), with an R2 of 35.3%, linear Multiple Regression analysis revealedthat all research variables have significant effect on successful adoption of DSS.The results indicated that PU & IT infrastructures have a positive & significant influence on the successfuladoption of DSS. Whereas, PEOU, IS interoperability, TMS, MS, & OS have no significant influence on thesuccessful adoption of DSS. Finally, the findings indicated that no significant statistical differences existedbetween respondents’ perceptions towards DSS adoption in terms of their demographic characteristics. Based onthe research findings & conclusions, a number of recommendations & future research suggestions are proposed.

Fairouz Mosleh Aldhmour; Malek Bakhit Eleyan

2012-01-01

258

Substance misuse prevention and economic analysis: challenges and opportunities regarding international utility.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Economic analyses of substance misuse prevention assess the intervention cost necessary to achieve a particular outcome, and thereby provide an additional dimension for evaluating prevention programming. This article reviews several types of economic analysis, considers how they can be applied to substance misuse prevention, and discusses challenges to enhancing their international relevance, particularly their usefulness for informing policy decisions. Important first steps taken to address these challenges are presented, including the disease burden concept and the development of generalized cost-effectiveness, advances that facilitate international policy discussions by providing a common framework for evaluating health care needs and program effects.

Guyll M; Spoth R; Cornish MA

2012-06-01

259

ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS  

Science.gov (United States)

Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

260

Analysis of Fishery Economic Data Relating to Commercial Mackerel Fisheries.  

Science.gov (United States)

The term fishery economic analysis is employed in this report rather than the conventional bio-economic model for several reasons. First, the analysis in this report does not utilize any biological parameters, such as growth, natural mortality, etc., in i...

J. Poffenberger

1982-01-01

 
 
 
 
261

Economic feasibility study for wastewater treatment: a cost-benefit analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Water resource management should be made from a multidisciplinary perspective. In this sense, economic research into the design and implementation of policies for the efficient management of water resources has been emphasized by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one of the more widely accepted economic instruments since it is a rational and systematic decision-making support tool. Moreover, the wastewater treatment process has significant associated environmental benefits. However, these benefits are often left uncalculated because they have no market value. In this paper, using the concept of shadow price, a quantification of the environmental benefits derived from wastewater treatment is made. Once the environmental benefits are estimated and the economic costs of the treatment processes are known, a CBA is made for each of the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under study. In this way, a useful economic feasibility indicator is obtained for WWTP operation.

Molinos-Senante M; Hernández-Sancho F; Sala-Garrido R

2010-09-01

262

Fraser tsa socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report assesses the impacts of three harvest forecasts within a multiple account framework that focuses attention on a range of values derived from the forest resource and recognizes that a number of factors may need to be considered when examining options for forest land management. The implications of the harvest forests are evaluated on the regional level for economic development, community, and aboriginal concerns, and on the provincial level for economic development, environmental implications, and government revenues. The document also describes the current timber supply situation and current forest management guidelines and gives a socio-economic profile of the area.

1994-01-01

263

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years.

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-10-01

264

Correlation Analysis Between Scientific and Technological Progress and Economic Development  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available There exists an interdependence between scientific and technological progress and economic development. The development of science and technology brings along economic development, meanwhile economic development offers powerful support for it. Based on statistical analysis of the relationship between Sci-Tech investment and economic growth in recent decade, this article explores the dependencies between them, and gives us a measurement model. The result suggests that local Sci-Tech investment is more effectively for GDP growth. Furthermore, a win-win proposal of seeking for Sci-Tech progress and economic growth is given.Key words: Science and technology development; Independent innovation; National innovation system; Measurement model

Chengju LI

2012-01-01

265

Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal) analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and ANP(Analytic Network Process) techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory). Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

Ihsan Yüksel

2012-01-01

266

Economic Analysis of Law: An Inquiry of its Underlying Logic  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Law and economics is a success story of interdisciplinary scholarship, and the success has been attributed to the strength of economics in providing a sound behavioral theory. It is argued in this paper, however, that this is only a partial explanation, for many issues in law are not directly related to human behavior per se. As such, in analyzing these issues, the legal economists rely mainly on the analytical logic of economic analysis. This often neglected aspect of economic analysis can be concisely illustrated by an A-A’ setup. The implications of the A-A’ setup are derived.

Bingyuan Hsiung

2006-01-01

267

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

268

EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

Andreea Lorena RADU; Maria CARACOTA DIMITRIU

2011-01-01

269

Economic behavior can be a guide to establishing a decision theory  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Among several different and contradictory possible decision models, Savage's behaviorist construction eliminates all but one. In this way, it guarantees decision theory its exclusiveness and its legitimacy. This unique theory associates measurement of risks by subjective probabilities, measurement of consequences by psychological utilities, and measurement of strategies by their combination, which is the mathematical expectation (weighted average) of utility.

Charreton, R.; Bourdaire, J.M.

1983-05-09

270

Beneficiation of Candiota`s coal. II - comparative economic analysis; Beneficiamento do carvao de Candiota. II - analise economica comparativa  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This work has aimed to choose the best economic option among several preparation plants for the coal from Candiota. It was carried out by an economic analysis, taking account of initial investment, costs and cost estimation, forecasting on yearly income and profitability and forecasting on equipment reposition. A cash flow was elaborated for each plant, considering a period of 20 years, then the decision making criteria were defined. 17 refs., 10 figs., 10 tabs

Souza, Julio Cesar de; Sampaio, Carlos Hoffmann [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-graduacao em Engenharia Metalurgica e dos Materiais; Kliemann Neto, Francisco J. [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

1991-12-31

271

??????????????????? Eco-Economic Evaluation of Farmland Water Conservancy Project Based on Energy Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????6.55?4.44?281.37????????????????????????????????????????Engineering project evaluation is an important means of  farmland and conservancy project during investment decisions. However the present means cannot make a thorough quantitative analysis of all cost and benefit. Aiming at this problem, a new thinking of using energy analysis to make an ecological economic evaluation of  farmland and conservancy project is put forward in this paper. With example of Zhaokou Irrigation Area II Project, the complete analysis and calculation are made from three aspects such as economic, so- cial and ecological environment. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of farmland and conservancy project at the angle of ecological economic evaluation according the EmCBR and its criteria. The results show that the most affected factor in the eco-economic evaluation of farmland water conservancy project is the ecological environment, followed by economic and society. Their EmCBR values are 6.55, 4.44, 281.37, respectively. Therefore, this project has great social benefits. It is shows that the project is practical based on the eco-economic evaluation.

???; ???; ???

2012-01-01

272

Economic principles for resource allocation decisions at national level to mitigate the effects of disease in farm animal populations.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This paper originated in a project to develop a practical, generic tool for the economic evaluation of surveillance for farm animal diseases at national level by a state veterinary service. Fundamental to that process is integration of epidemiological and economic perspectives. Using a generalized example of epidemic disease, we show that an epidemic curve maps into its economic equivalent, a disease mitigation function, that traces the relationship between value losses avoided and mitigation resources expended. Crucially, elementary economic principles show that mitigation, defined as loss reduction achieved by surveillance and intervention, must be explicitly conceptualized as a three-variable process, and the relative contributions of surveillance and intervention resources investigated with regard to the substitution possibilities between them. Modelling the resultant mitigation surfaces for different diseases should become a standard approach to animal health policy analysis for economic efficiency, a contribution to the evolving agenda for animal health economics research.

Howe KS; Häsler B; Stärk KD

2013-01-01

273

Economic analysis of residential solar water heaters  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A typical residential solar water heater, and typical cost and performance information are described briefly. The monthly costs and savings of the typical system are discussed. Economic evaluations of solar water heaters are presented in increasingly complex levels of detail. Utilizing a typical system, the effective interest rate that the purchaser of a system would receive on money invested is shown for all regions of the country. The importance of numerous variables that can make a significant difference on the economics of the system is described. Methods for calculating the Payback Period for any non-typical solar water heater are described. This calculated Payback Period is then shown to be related to the effective interest rate that the puchaser of the system would receive for a typical set of economic conditions. A method is presented to calculate the effective interest rate that the solar system would provide. (MHR)

1980-09-23

274

Economic analysis of residential solar water heaters  

Science.gov (United States)

A residential solar water heater, cost and performance information, and monthly costs and savings of the typical system are discussed. Economic evaluations of solar water heaters are presented in increasingly complex levels of detail. Utilizing a typical system, the effective interest rate that the purchaser of a system would receive on money invested is shown for all regions of the country. The importance of numerous variables that can make a significant difference on the economics of the system is described. Methods for calculating the payback period for any nontypical solar water heater are described. This calculated payback period is shown to be related to the effective interest rate that the purchaser of the system would receive for a typical set of economic conditions. A method is presented to calculate the effective interest rate that the solar system can provide.

Carlock, J.; Overton, R.

1980-09-01

275

Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

P. Gnip; S. Kafka; J. ?epický; K. Charvát

2009-01-01

276

Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets) to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu; Sajjan Shiva

2009-01-01

277

Use of Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Address Conservation Conflicts.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. Uso de Análisis de Decisiones Multicriterio para Abordar Conflictos de Conservación.

Davies AL; Bryce R; Redpath SM

2013-07-01

278

Economic concepts for the analysis of behavior.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

A review of the relationship between schedule of reinforcement, response rate, and choice suggests that certain unifying concepts from economics can contribute to a more complete science of behavior. Four points are made: 1) a behavioral experiment is an economic system and its characteristics-open or closed-can strongly determine the results; 2) reinforcers can be distinguished by a functional property called elasticity; 3) reinforcers may interact as complements as well as substitutes; 4) no simple choice rule, such as strict matching, can account for all choice behavior.

Hursh SR

1980-09-01

279

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to clarify the role of nuclear power generation under the circumstances of growing concerns about environmental impact and to help decision making in electricity sector. In this study, efforts are made to estimate electricity power generation cost of major power options by incorporating additional cost to reduce environmental impact and to suggest an optimal plant mix in this case. (Author)

1992-01-01

280

Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

Steven Simoens

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
281

Decision Consequence Model (DCM): Integrating environmental data and analysis into real time decision making  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A critical evaluation of the many environmental issues facing EPA Region 3 has established five major priorities: (1) ozone pollution (and its precursors); (2) impacts of acidification (acid deposition and acid mine drainage); (3) eutrophication of the Chesapeake Bay from atmospheric nitrogen deposition; (4) Cities/Urban Environment (ozone, particulate matter (PM), air toxics are some of the air components); and (5) Climate Change. Recognizing the complex nature of the systems controlling these issues, Region III's Air Protection Division (APD) is developing a decision support tool, i.e., the Decision Consequence Model (DCM), that will integrate and automate the analysis of environmental impacts in a manner that allows them to holistically address these regional priorities. Using this tool the authors intend to consider the interdependency of pollutants and their environmental impacts in order to support real-time decision making. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic concept of the DCM and to present an example set of environmental indicators to illustrate how the DCM will be used to evaluate environmental impacts. The authors will discuss their process of indicator development, and present an example suite of indicators to provide a concrete example of the concepts presented above and, to illustrate the utility of the DCM to simultaneously evaluate multiple effects of a single pollutant. They will discuss the type of indicators chosen for this example as well as the general criteria the DCM indicators must satisfy. The framework that was developed to construct the indicators is discussed and used to calculate the example indicators. The yearly magnitudes of these example indicators are calculated for various multi-year periods to show their behavior over time.

Cimorelli, A.J.; Stahl, C.H.; Chow, A.H.; Fernandez, C.

1999-07-01

282

New economic geography: A guide to transport analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The paper surveys the main contributions of new economic geography from the point of view of transport analysis. It shows that decreasing transport costs is likely to exacerbate regional disparities. However, very low transport costs should foster a more balanced distribution for economic activities...

Lafourcade, Miren; Thisse, Jacques-François

283

The xeroderma pigmentosum pathway: decision tree analysis of DNA quality.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The nucleotide excision repair (NER) system is a fundamental cellular stress response that uses only a handful of DNA binding factors, mutated in the cancer-prone syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), to detect an astounding diversity of bulky base lesions, including those induced by ultraviolet light, electrophilic chemicals, oxygen radicals and further genetic insults. Several of these XP proteins are characterized by a mediocre preference for damaged substrates over the native double helix but, intriguingly, none of them recognizes injured bases with sufficient selectivity to account for the very high precision of bulky lesion excision. Instead, substrate versatility as well as damage specificity and strand selectivity are achieved by a multistage quality control strategy whereby different subunits of the XP pathway, in succession, interrogate the DNA double helix for a distinct abnormality in its structural or dynamic parameters. Through this step-by-step filtering procedure, the XP proteins operate like a systematic decision making tool, generally known as decision tree analysis, to sort out rare damaged bases embedded in a vast excess of native DNA. The present review is focused on the mechanisms by which multiple XP subunits of the NER pathway contribute to the proposed decision tree analysis of DNA quality in eukaryotic cells.

Naegeli H; Sugasawa K

2011-07-01

284

The xeroderma pigmentosum pathway: decision tree analysis of DNA quality.  

Science.gov (United States)

The nucleotide excision repair (NER) system is a fundamental cellular stress response that uses only a handful of DNA binding factors, mutated in the cancer-prone syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), to detect an astounding diversity of bulky base lesions, including those induced by ultraviolet light, electrophilic chemicals, oxygen radicals and further genetic insults. Several of these XP proteins are characterized by a mediocre preference for damaged substrates over the native double helix but, intriguingly, none of them recognizes injured bases with sufficient selectivity to account for the very high precision of bulky lesion excision. Instead, substrate versatility as well as damage specificity and strand selectivity are achieved by a multistage quality control strategy whereby different subunits of the XP pathway, in succession, interrogate the DNA double helix for a distinct abnormality in its structural or dynamic parameters. Through this step-by-step filtering procedure, the XP proteins operate like a systematic decision making tool, generally known as decision tree analysis, to sort out rare damaged bases embedded in a vast excess of native DNA. The present review is focused on the mechanisms by which multiple XP subunits of the NER pathway contribute to the proposed decision tree analysis of DNA quality in eukaryotic cells. PMID:21684221

Naegeli, Hanspeter; Sugasawa, Kaoru

2011-06-17

285

Analysis of the Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in Beijing  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article, we studied the convergence of regional economic growth in Beijing. We divided 18 districts and counties in Beijing into four economic regions, utilized the method of Gini coefficient decomposition to educe the  -convergence didn’t exist in the regional economic growth of Beijing. At the same time, we utilized the panel data model and the spatial panel data model analysis to educe that the  - absolute convergence didn’t exist in the regional economic growth of Beijing, but the  -conditional convergence existed, and analyzed the reason forming that  -conditional convergence.

Daqing Shen; Ruiqiang Wang; Nan Yi

2009-01-01

286

Economic data used in working group 5 analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

1979-01-01

287

An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

2012-01-01

288

Treatment of periprosthetic infections: an economic analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This review summarizes the existing economic literature, assesses the value of current data, and presents procedures that are the less costly and more effective options for the treatment of periprosthetic infections of knee and hip. Optimizing antibiotic use in the prevention and treatment of periprosthetic infection, combined with systemic and behavioral changes in the operating room, the detection and treatment of high-risk patient groups, as well as the rational management of the existing infection by using the different procedures according to each particular case, could allow for improved outcomes and lead to the highest quality of life for patients and the lowest economic impact. Nevertheless, the cost-effectiveness of different interventions to treat periprosthetic infections remains unclear.

Hernández-Vaquero D; Fernández-Fairen M; Torres A; Menzie AM; Fernández-Carreira JM; Murcia-Mazon A; Guerado E; Merzthal L

2013-01-01

289

Resources and energy: an economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Two long core chapters on oil and on nonfuel minerals, along with an exposition of the econometrics of primary commodities, give the reader a basic insight into the economic techniques and their uses. There are also chapters on coal, gas, and uranium, which include an overview of the Soviet energy sector and the Australian coal industry. The book introduces oil refining, petrochemicals, futures markets, inventories, capital costs, tin, stock-flow models, and other topics not usually handled in most economics text and reference books. There is also a short survey of iron and steel. The book concludes with the note that attempts to check inflation by monetary means in the presence of the kind of consumer and corporate debt that exists today is begging for catastrophe. Monetarism, like champagne, is good for pleasure, but very bad for business. 210 references, 47 figures, 41 tables.

Banks, F.E.

1983-01-01

290

Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

2005-01-01

291

Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

2007-01-01

292

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study gives special emphasis on the forecast of maximum power. As long as stable supply of power is concerned, maximum power plays more important role than electricity demand itself. Several methods for the forecast of maximum power are analyzed and tested. A model entitled Uri model is selected and as a result maximum power forecast is performed until the year 2005 using this model. It is also endeavored to build elaborated and consistent series of data on the O and M cost of power plant that is necessary for the decision of optimal plant mix. Finally, electric system expansion planning is performed through WASP using data built above. (author)

1990-01-01

293

Diversification: an economic framework for analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This article demonstrates an economist's approach to some important questions about utility-company diversification: how, where, when, and why. Drawing on work in the economics of finance and of competition, the author develops a framework for considering where a utility should diversify and what problems it is likely to encounter along the way. In this development an important step is taken toward learning whether a utility should diversify at all.

Conerly, W.B.

1982-09-16

294

An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

S. Chinnammai

2013-01-01

295

Minimum markup laws in gasoline marketing: an economic analysis and a legal, economic, and legislative review  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Accomplishments of the following four tasks are presented: (1) review of legal and economic literature which covers sales below cost laws, resale price maintenance laws, minimum markup laws and fair trade laws; (2) analysis of federal and state laws; (3) review of which states recently have considered or are now considering such legislation; and (4) analysis of the effects of minimum markup legislation.

1985-03-01

296

Economics 14.12: Lecture 2  

Science.gov (United States)

Lecture notes for a lesson at MIT on game theoretical approaches to decision making, including decision making with uncertain information and analysis of risk. The lesson primarily covers game theory and not economic applications.

Yildiz, Muhamet

297

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON INCENTIVES FOR INVESTMENTS IN PLUM TREES PLANTING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we consider the application of Cost/Benefit Analysis procedure in the decision process on socialeconomic profitability of subsidy implementation for investments in agricultural production, based on newly planted plum trees. Cost/Benefit Analysis has many advantages over the other common methods. It proved to be especially useful in the agricultural production, because it is possible to estimate the profitability of investments in the special conditions of agricultural production, taking into account many factors of its economic efficiency, as well as main effects that individual producers and the whole social community can expect. The application of Cost/Benefit Analysis, based on the data gathered for Bosnia and Herzegovina, enabled insight into the profitability of the existing subsidy programs for investments in plum trees planting, that take place in the conditon of the whole economy transition and high degree of rural population unemployment.

Marijan Kari?; Ferhat ?ejvanovi?

2004-01-01

298

“AGREEMENTS”, “DECISIONS” AND “CONCERTED PRACTICES”: KEY CONCEPTS IN THE ANALYSIS OF ANTICOMPETITIVE AGREEMENTS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In their economic activity, undertakings conclude many agreements between them. But agreements between undertakings which can distort the competition -anticompetitive agreements- are prohibited. The Romanian and EU law prohibit “all agreements between undertakings, decisions by associations of undertakings and concerted practices which have as their object or effect the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition”. However, the terms ”agreements”, ”decisions” or ”concerted practices” are nowhere defined in the EU Treaties or in the Romanian law. These terms are key concepts in the analysis of anticompetitive agreements which can distort the competition. In the lack of a legal definition, these concepts have generated a complex body of jurisprudence, which has to be identified. The analysis of these key concepts necessarily entails the conceptual delimitation of the notions. On this purpose, the relevant legal provisions will be identified in the Romanian and EU law, as well as the decisions of the European Court of Justice in this matter. The present paper intends to present the conceptual evolution of the analysed notions, paying special attention to concerted practices and to parallel behaviour in price fixing on the market.

CRISTINA CUCU

2013-01-01

299

“AGREEMENTS”, “DECISIONS” AND “CONCERTED PRACTICES”: KEY CONCEPTS IN THE ANALYSIS OF ANTICOMPETITIVE AGREEMENTS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In their economic activity, undertakings conclude many agreements between them. But agreements between undertakings which can distort the competition -anticompetitive agreements- are prohibited. The Romanian and EU law prohibit 'all agreements between undertakings, decisions by associations of undertakings and concerted practices which have as their object or effect the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition'. However, the terms 'agreements', 'decisions' or 'concerted practices' are nowhere defined in the EU Treaties or in the Romanian law. These terms are key concepts in the analysis of anticompetitive agreements which can distort the competition. In the lack of a legal definition, these concepts have generated a complex body of jurisprudence, which has to be identified. The analysis of these key concepts necessarily entails the conceptual delimitation of the notions. On this purpose, the relevant legal provisions will be identified in the Romanian and EU law, as well as the decisions of the European Court of Justice in this matter. The present paper intends to present the conceptual evolution of the analysed notions, paying special attention to concerted practices and to parallel behaviour in price fixing on the market.

Cristina CUCU

2013-01-01

300

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

1993-01-01

 
 
 
 
301

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

1993-01-01

302

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

1993-01-01

303

Energy Storage Technical and Economic Analysis Program  

Science.gov (United States)

The DOE Energy Storage program over the last several years has evaluated a large number of energy storage technologies, developed promising technologies, and successfully transferred new technologies to the private sector. In FY-1985 specific tasks involved in this area included: battery systems requirements analysis, statistical analysis of battery failures, and research needs for corrosion control and prevention in energy conservation systems. Battery cost analysis, R and D planning, and technology transfer/market analysis are also reported.

1985-11-01

304

Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available Abstract in english Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and e (more) xperimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

Xun-Gui, Li; Xia, Wei; Qiang, Huang

2012-01-01

305

Economic modelling and climate change policy analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The importance of developing a workable model to predict the economic impacts of greenhouse gas reductions was discussed. Climate change poses a huge analytical challenge. The related costs of mitigations have international, national, regional and sectoral implications. Benefits also have many dimensions but they are difficult to predict; in any event, they occur over the long-term. The broad range of possible response options were presented. Selecting the best measure to reduce greenhouse gases requires an analytical tool that will evaluate the impact of a wide range of measures within a comparable framework. It was suggested that emissions trading and tradeable permits might be the effective ways of reducing the costs of achieving certain targets. The role of monetary and fiscal policies, the `green industries` argument, and the role of technology in reducing green house gas emissions were probed. A workable and reliable model of economic impacts and costs would be of immense help. However, the ability of current models to accurately assess the real world implications of emissions trading was judged to be questionable at best.

McIlveen, N. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

1997-12-31

306

MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

VENUGOPAL .B. S; SESHADRI G .B

2013-01-01

307

Economic Model for Monopoly Analysis in Telecommunication  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Telecommunications Act of 1996 sought to end the monopoly that once existed in the telecommunications industry. Since its adoption, the telecommunications industry has been undergoing a period of rapid change and development. The entry of new players into the market encouraged them to seek new ways to attract and keep customers. These changes have led to a rapid influx of new technology and services. Many times what defines a monopoly is not clear in every circumstance and there are many pending lawsuits for violations of antitrust laws in the courts today. Economic models are useful in resolving issues of whether a monopoly truly exists, or whether claims are unsubstantiated. Previous models were applicable only in certain situations. These models are unreliable in predicting monopolies outside the parameters for which they were designed. This research will develop and test an economic model that accurately predicts the existence of a monopoly in the telecommunications sector, based on the United States of America's marketplace case, as the best representative example to deal with.

Jürgen Albinger

2009-01-01

308

A binary decision diagram for fault tree analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper, binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm is used for fault tree analysis. The ways of calculating failure probability and minimal cut-set (MCS) for certain fault trees are presented, including conversion from fault tree to BDD structure, obtaining MCS from BDD, MCS storage in terms of zero-suppressed BDD (ZBDD) for space-saving, and calculation of top event unavailability. A program was compiled and validated by calculating a PSA model of certain nuclear power plant both by hand and RiskSpectrum PSA. The comparison results show that the program can qualify and quantify a fault tree of relatively small scale. (authors)

2011-01-01

309

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

310

The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is the price to be paid today in or

2012-01-01

311

Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and suscep...

Cri?an, Liviu G.; Pan?, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M.; Szekely, Raluca; Drug?, Bogdan; Drago?, Nicolae

312

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

Thompson AM; Rao CP

1990-01-01

313

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions. PMID:10106848

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

314

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner.

1996-01-01

315

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm`s production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner.

Hardisty, P.E.; Brown, A. [Komex-H2O Science, Huntington Beach, CA (United States)

1996-12-01

316

Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information databases. METHODS: Five commercially available and two freely available online drug information databases were evaluated according to scope (presence or absence of answer), completeness (the comprehensiveness of the answers), and ease of use. Additionally, a composite score integrating all three criteria was utilized. Fifteen weighted categories comprised of 158 questions were used to conduct the analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square were used to summarize the evaluation components and make comparisons between databases. Scheffe's multiple comparison procedure was used to determine statistically different scope and completeness scores. The composite score was subjected to sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the choice of percentages for scope and completeness. RESULTS: The rankings for the databases from highest to lowest, based on composite scores were Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Lexi-Comp Online, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Epocrates Online Premium, RxList.com, and Epocrates Online Free. Differences in scope produced three statistical groupings with Group 1 (best) performers being: Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Lexi-Comp Online, Group 2: Epocrates Premium and RxList.com and Group 3: Epocrates Free (p < 0.05). Completeness scores were similarly stratified. Collapsing the databases into two groups by access (subscription or free), showed the subscription databases performed better than the free databases in the measured criteria (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Online drug information databases, which belong to clinical decision support, vary in their ability to answer questions across a range of categories.

Clauson KA; Marsh WA; Polen HH; Seamon MJ; Ortiz BI

2007-01-01

317

Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information databases. Methods Five commercially available and two freely available online drug information databases were evaluated according to scope (presence or absence of answer), completeness (the comprehensiveness of the answers), and ease of use. Additionally, a composite score integrating all three criteria was utilized. Fifteen weighted categories comprised of 158 questions were used to conduct the analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square were used to summarize the evaluation components and make comparisons between databases. Scheffe's multiple comparison procedure was used to determine statistically different scope and completeness scores. The composite score was subjected to sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the choice of percentages for scope and completeness. Results The rankings for the databases from highest to lowest, based on composite scores were Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Lexi-Comp Online, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Epocrates Online Premium, RxList.com, and Epocrates Online Free. Differences in scope produced three statistical groupings with Group 1 (best) performers being: Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Lexi-Comp Online, Group 2: Epocrates Premium and RxList.com and Group 3: Epocrates Free (p Conclusion Online drug information databases, which belong to clinical decision support, vary in their ability to answer questions across a range of categories.

Clauson Kevin A; Marsh Wallace A; Polen Hyla H; Seamon Matthew J; Ortiz Blanca I

2007-01-01

318

ArgMax: Economics News, Data, and Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Created by John Irons, an assistant professor of economics at Amherst, the ArgMax Web site (named after a mathematical terms utilized in economics) provides a host of current news, data, and topical analysis of economics. Updated frequently by a newsbot, the news and commentary section is divided into several themed sections and drawn from a wide number of online sources. After reading some of these articles, visitors may want to consult the online economics glossary that offers brief explanations of terms ranging from absolute advantage to wire transfer. Another section contains the blog that Irons writes for the site and various articles of interest. The seemingly innocuous "Stuff" section contains some nice gems, including an interview with Irons about becoming involved in the field of economics. Overall, the site is a nice way for people who are familiar (or just getting acquainted) with the discipline. [KMG

319

Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

1996-01-01

320

Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

1996-08-01

 
 
 
 
321

DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC-ORGANISATIONAL ENTITIES OPERATING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The complete operating cycle of the organisational economic entity provides a connection between its actions and those actions that take place in the environment where it operates, which are deemed to be natural reactions of the environment to the operation of the organisational economic entity. The way in which the environment reacts to its operation must be understood as being the nature of the relations between events, factors and structures of the environment and not as an answer to what the organisational economic entity does. The same action of the organisational economic entity could therefore determine different environmental reactions to various moments and various actions. This is because organisational economic entities act under the conditions of the restrictions imposed by the environment. There are few cases where these restrictions are not observed and the environment reacts unambiguously. But, most of the time, the operating range is relatively tight, and inside of it only a very low part of it can be assigned to the actions taken by the organisation.

IOAN CONSTANTIN DIMA; MARIANA MAN

2012-01-01

322

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are c...

Kuzemin, Alexander; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav

323

STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

Vazakidis Athanasios; Adamopoulos Antonios

2012-01-01

324

Guide to IDAP, Version 2: an interactive decision analysis procedure  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This document is intended to serve as both a programmer's and user's guide to the current version of the IDAP; and to prompt interested individuals into making suggestions for the future development of IDAP. The majority of the sections pertain to the main IDA program rather than to the IDAIN procedure. A brief discussion is presented of the theory of decision analysis. The aspects of decision analysis that are relevant to the IDAP are discussed. A complete list and description of the commands used in the IDAP program is provided and, including three complete examples. This section may be considered a user's guide to the IDAP. The programmer's guide to the IDAP discusses the various technical aspects of the programs, and may be skipped by users not involved with programming the IDAP. A list of the error messages generated by the IDAP is presented. As the program is developed, error handling and messages will improve.

Jusko, M.J.; Whitfield, R.G.

1980-11-01

325

ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EXPENSES IN AGRICULTURE. ANALYSIS MODELS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Practical implementation of the concept of global economic efficiency requires modeling the extra economic-economic conversion process. This involves first of all classifying all components of a subsystem so that it is possible to observe the effects produced by the variation of elements, both in the specific area of the addressed field, as well as in the economic area. Thus, in developing the analysis models we started from the standard analysis models of economic efficiency, which were reconstructed for the protection environment activity, defining in this manner the factors of influence for the economic efficiency of the expense for environmental protection in agriculture.

DANIELA SIMTION; ROXANA LUCA

2009-01-01

326

Health-economic rates for medical services and clinical economic analysis as components of health reform in Kazakhstan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2002, Kazakhstan started with a new stage of development ofmedical-economic protocols for all levels of care in the country.This article accentuates on importance of developing clinicaleconomic analysis that helps to provide unified and optimizedrates on medical services throughout the country. Optimizedmedical rates, the authors argue, deliver high quality medicalservices at effective economic costs, as well as efficient publicbudgeting. Authors describe key points of the Unified NationalHealth System of the country. The paper provides review of thehistory of clinical-economic analysis, describes the main types ofclinical-economic analysis, prospects for the development ofclinical and economic analysis in Kazakhstan as well.

Gulziya Ismailova; Kulmaram Aydarhanova; Adi Demessinov; Alma Aubakirova

2010-01-01

327

Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia.

Moncada J; El-Halwagi MM; Cardona CA

2013-05-01

328

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so called naive scenario and a risk-averse scenario, are evaluated in this case study.

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

329

INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF SHARE PRICES OF ELEKTROKRAJINA a.d. BANJA LUKA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The latest wave of economic crisishas influenced strongly the volatility of share prices inthe capital market of the Republic of Srpska. The basicresearch questions to which answers are required inmaking investment decisions are: whether the pricesof shares are undervalued or overvalued, whether theprice is determined by specific and measurable factorsand whether it is predictable for investors. The marketprice of shares can significantly deviate from the realintrinsicvalue of shares. Making investment decisionsin such circumstances requires quantitative analysiswith the aim of determining the real-intrinsic value ofshares. In this paper, the method of fundamentalanalysis of share prices will be used as a basicconcept of assessing the value, ie. intrinsic evaluationof value of the shares. The main goal of fundamentalanalysis is identifying the weaknesses of the marketduring the formation of market share price, throughelaborating the amount of deviation of the marketprice of shares relative to the real-intrinsic value ofshares. The paper presents an analysis of share pricesthat make up the index of Electric Power Company ofthe Republika Srpska (ERS10). The aim of the paper isto elaborate underestimation or overvaluation ofshare prices of the company Elektrokrajina a.d. BanjaLuka (EKBL-R-A) based on fundamental analysis ofthe company's share prices. As a result, analysis andmathematical interpretation of the economic doctrineof fundamental analysis and its appli-cation in thecapital market of the Republika Srpska, as shownusing the example of Elektrokrajina a.d. Banja Luka,indicated the possibility of decision-making oninvesting into securities based on this theoreticalconcept.

Dragan Milovanovi?

2012-01-01

330

Change of Guard for Economic Analysis and Policy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available It is with great pleasure and enthusiasm that we took over the editorship of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) in 2008. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch). In this note, we would like to highlight the changes that we have made to the journal. We hope and believe that these changes will enable EAP to move forward, increase its readership, move towards an impact factor and contribute to economic policy as well as the academic and industry discussions at local, national, and international levels. In the following we present key changes and the rationale behind it. We begin with a brief history of EAP.

Dulleck, Uwe; Torgler, Benno; Wilson, Clevo

2008-01-01

331

Using life-cycle analysis to estimate economic performance  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

One of the principal tools of industrial ecology is life-cycle assessment which intends to improve overall economic efficiency and to minimize negative environmental impacts of products, processes, and facilities. This paper describes a general methodology for environmentally responsible assessment of these activities; it discusses some of the underlying considerations for this assessment which are accessible by rigorous quantitative analysis; and an overall economic performance metric is proposed which puts both environmental and economic considerations on a common basis. Finally, some considerations involved in this approach is introduced as a guide to environmentally sound design and management.

Allenby, B.R.

1996-03-28

332

An Economic Analysis of Spam Law  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper, I develop an economic argument for regulating the sending of junk emails, and examine the efficiency of various approaches to regulate junk emails. The first part of the paper develops an externality model of spam to show that in the absence of regulation, junk emails are inefficient. Next, I analyse the regulatory approaches presently used in the United States in three categories: opt-out, filtering and blocking, and opt-in. The study finds that spam can be both a positive externality as well as a negative one. However, the likelihood of being a negative externality is more probable. Absence regulation, no allocation of a property right to spam leads to an efficient level of spam. An examination of the three categories show that only the opt-in approach ensures that there is no net social loss, but not necessarily at a socially efficient level of spam. Hence, it is only a second best solution. Based on the conclusions that opt-in is the best solution given the constraints of transaction cost, the paper suggests a set of policy conclusions that serve as guidelines for countries enacting laws to regulate junk emails or spam.

Dennis W. K. Khong

2004-01-01

333

Economic decision making in risk projects; A decisao economica nos projetos de risco  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper aims at developing a theory to justify the traditional use of expected monetary value in decision making regarding risk projects. In order to do this, it was necessary to create the following concepts: possible project, EMV profile and combined project. The paper also demonstrates that the EMV of a risk project matches the profit of its combined project, as defined, thus providing greater simplification in the calculations involved (author) 2 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

Mannarino, Remo

1990-04-01

334

Engineering Economic Analysis of Biomethanation of Pyrolysis Gas.  

Science.gov (United States)

A detailed engineering economic analysis was carried out for the biomethanation of pyrolysis gas produced from municipal solid waste by the PUROX process. Biomethanation is defined in this analysis as the shift conversion of CO to CO sub 2 and H sub 2 and...

1981-01-01

335

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches.

Convertino M; Valverde LJ Jr

2013-01-01

336

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI”) is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers) and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations). It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS), query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP), statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

DEJAN ZDRAVESKI; IGOR ZDRAVKOSKI

2011-01-01

337

Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs.

2006-01-01

338

Economics and Olympics: An Efficiency Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Applying stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the importance of sports in society as technical efficiency of countries in the production ofnOlympic success since the 1950s. Our measures of success are medal shares and a broader concept including Olympic diplomas. Following Bernard andnBusse (20...

Rathke, Alexander; Woitek, Ulrich

339

Economics of reusable facilities  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] In this paper some of the different economic development strategies that can be used for reusable facilities in the UK, Norway, Netherlands and in some production sharing contracts are outlined. These strategies focus on an integrated decision analysis approach which considers development phasing, reservoir management, tax planning and where appropriate facility purchase, leasing, or sale and leaseback decisions

1992-01-01

340

Decision Analysis via Granulation Based on General Binary Relation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Decision theory considers how best to make decisions in the light of uncertainty about data. There are several methodologies that may be used to determine the best decision. In rough set theory, the classification of objects according to approximation operators can be fitted into the Bayesian decision-theoretic model, with respect to three regions (positive, negative, and boundary region). Granulation using equivalence classes is a restriction that limits the decision makers. In this paper, we introduce a generalization and modification of decision-theoretic rough set model by using granular computing on general binary relations. We obtain two new types of approximation that enable us to classify the objects into five regions instead of three regions. The classification of decision region into five areas will enlarge the range of choice for decision makers.

M. M. E. Abd El-Monsef; N. M. Kilany

2007-01-01

 
 
 
 
341

Foreign policy decision making: an analysis of three United States policy decisions towards Saudi Arabia  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This dissertation attempts to assess the validity of decision-making theory as an approach to understanding and explaining international relations. The study examines the works of eight major decision-making theorists. Although their theories approach decision-making from several perspectives, they lack consensus about how decisions are made. Some theorists focus on bureaucratic imperatives, others on individual psychological motivations, while still others emphasize the political bargains that are struck among political elites. The undue focus on crises has of necessity directed the theorist to examine decisions during relatively short time spans, and to overestimate the role political elites play in non-crisis situations. The Saudi case represents a more routine situation that occurred over a longer period of time. Moreover, it identifies areas the theorists underemphasize, yet were critical in this case: (1) there was an active role of interest groups, particularly oil companies, in the formation of US policy; (2) decisions were often made by middle and low-level bureaucrats and not the political elite; and (3) implementation of a decision was affected by the actions of the US Congress, Britain, and Saudi Arabia.

Alexander, P.K.

1985-01-01

342

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SUGAR BEAT PRODUCTION  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Croatian quota of 180.000 tones of sugar beet per year is approved for export to EU countries. For that amount of sugar it is necessary to produce about 30.000 ha of sugar beet. Sugar beet production requires deep and fertile soils, and crop rotation requirement is at least five year. Therefore, Slavonia and Baranya do t have enough areas under sugar beet. An additional problem is so called “sugar reform” applied by EUaiming to decrease price of sugar produced from sugar beet root and its equalization to sugar cane price. Consequences of this movement will be decreasing of sugar beet domestic redemption price. In that way, sugar beet production will be increased only within producers with relative good soils, suitable mechanization and knowledge. The research shows the results of production sugar beet on family farm of Vukovar – SrijemCounty on 21 ha. Technical and technological process includes 35 working operations spending 26.9 hours/ha of mechanization and 65.8 hours/ha of labor. Total costs amount to 15.947,05 kn/ha. Producers paid for seed 1.405,44 kn/ha or 9.4% and for 1.100 kg of fertilizers 2.217,50 kn/ha or 14.8% of total costs. Significant values are also costs for plant protection (9 l/ha) being 15.2% of total cost. Mechanization fee is 5.070,96 kn/ha with share of 33.9% what indicates that this is the most important element in total costs, partly as a consequence of increased distance between arable land and farm. Total value of production is 20.759,59 kn/ha, with yields of the root (70.30 t/ha) and government subsidies. Amount of 1.068,82 kg root is producedper hour of human labour; while 0.94 hour of human labour is necessary per tone of products. Economic coefficient is 1.36. Profit of 36.67 kn is achieved on 100 invested kunas in production process.

Jozo Kanisek; Jadranka Deže; Ljubica Ranogajec; Mirjana Miljevi?

2008-01-01

343

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics  

Science.gov (United States)

This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be captured in the valuation model. Finally, the study will compare the probability distributions of development cost and project value and discusses the market penetration potential of the geothermal power generation. There is a recent world wide interest in geothermal utilization projects. There are several reasons for the recent popularity of geothermal energy, including the increasing volatility of fossil fuel prices, need for domestic energy sources, approaching carbon emission limitations and state renewable energy standards, increasing need for baseload units, and new technology to make geothermal energy more attractive for power generation. It is our hope that this study will contribute to the recent progress of geothermal energy by shedding light on the uncertainty of geothermal energy project costs.

Sener, Adil Caner

344

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS) of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

Abba M. Wakili

2013-01-01

345

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

1981-01-01

346

Economic Analysis of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives Union  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this research, the management activities of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives’ Union were evaluated and revenues and costs required for economic analysis were calculated and profit and loss income statement was estimated for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. Data for Gross Margin Analysis were supplied from income and loss statement and thus Table comprising gross margins was formed covering all the activities of The Union.Gross Margin Analysis was made in order to determine economic performance of The Union by means of the data obtained from economic results of the operational activities in the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Union should develop its present activities so as to survive in the future. Therefore, suggestions were made for the expansion of the profitable activities and to improve nonprofitable activities in order to make them profitable.

N. Serinikli; I. H. Inan

2007-01-01

347

To be or not to be - a long term economic decision  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer`s primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada`s geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry`s willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author`s contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs.

Ito, T. [Z.I. Probes, Calgary, AB (Canada)

1998-09-01

348

Identification of metabolic syndrome using decision tree analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

This study employs decision tree as a decision support system for rapid and automated identification of individuals with metabolic syndrome (MS) among a Thai population. Results demonstrated strong predictivity of the decision tree in classification of individuals with and without MS, displaying an overall accuracy in excess of 99%.

Worachartcheewan A; Nantasenamat C; Isarankura-Na-Ayudhya C; Pidetcha P; Prachayasittikul V

2010-10-01

349

Identification of metabolic syndrome using decision tree analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

This study employs decision tree as a decision support system for rapid and automated identification of individuals with metabolic syndrome (MS) among a Thai population. Results demonstrated strong predictivity of the decision tree in classification of individuals with and without MS, displaying an overall accuracy in excess of 99%. PMID:20619912

Worachartcheewan, Apilak; Nantasenamat, Chanin; Isarankura-Na-Ayudhya, Chartchalerm; Pidetcha, Phannee; Prachayasittikul, Virapong

2010-10-01

350

Methods of international health technology assessment agencies for economic evaluations- a comparative analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: The number of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies increases. One component of HTAs are economic aspects. To incorporate economic aspects commonly economic evaluations are performed. A convergence of recommendations for methods of health economic evaluations between international HTA agencies would facilitate the adaption of results to different settings and avoid unnecessary expense. A first step in this direction is a detailed analysis of existing similarities and differences in recommendations to identify potential for harmonization. The objective is to provide an overview and comparison of the methodological recommendations of international HTA agencies for economic evaluations. METHODS: The webpages of 127 international HTA agencies were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on methods for the preparation of economic evaluations. Additionally, the HTA agencies were requested information on methods for economic evaluations. Recommendations of the included guidelines were extracted in standardized tables according to 13 methodological aspects. All process steps were performed independently by two reviewers. RESULTS: Finally 25 publications of 14 HTA agencies were included in the analysis. Methods for economic evaluations vary widely. The greatest accordance could be found for the type of analysis and comparator. Cost-utility-analyses or cost-effectiveness-analyses are recommended. The comparator should continuously be usual care. Again the greatest differences were shown in the recommendations on the measurement / sources of effects, discounting and in the analysis of sensitivity. The main difference regarding effects is the focus either on efficacy or effectiveness. Recommended discounting rates range from 1.5% - 5% for effects and 3% - 5% for costs whereby it is mostly recommended to use the same rate for costs and effects. With respect to the analysis of sensitivity the main difference is that oftentimes the probabilistic or deterministic approach is recommended exclusively. Methods for modeling are only described vaguely and mainly with the rational that the "appropriate model" depends on the decision problem. Considering all other aspects a comparison is challenging as recommendations vary regarding detailedness and addressed issues. CONCLUSION: There is a considerable unexplainable variance in recommendations. Further effort is needed to harmonize methods for preparing economic evaluations.

Mathes T; Jacobs E; Morfeld JC; Pieper D

2013-09-01

351

Economic analysis of fusion breeders. Supplement  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Three fusion/fission hybrids and three converter reactors were considered in combination: (1) Li-Be (Opt-Li) blanket, (2) molten salt blanket (1.6 blanket energy multiplier), and (3) molten salt blanket (2.5 blanket energy multiplier). The following converter (fission) reactors were considered: (1) LWR, (2) HTGR, and (3) molten salt. In order to provide some perspective on the results of the hybrid analysis, LMFBRs were also examined: (1) methods applied consistently, and (2) range of LMFBR costs consistent with current thought on advanced designs.

Delene, J.G.

1985-01-01

352

Economic analysis of fusion breeders. Supplement  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Three fusion/fission hybrids and three converter reactors were considered in combination: (1) Li-Be (Opt-Li) blanket, (2) molten salt blanket (1.6 blanket energy multiplier), and (3) molten salt blanket (2.5 blanket energy multiplier). The following converter (fission) reactors were considered: (1) LWR, (2) HTGR, and (3) molten salt. In order to provide some perspective on the results of the hybrid analysis, LMFBRs were also examined: (1) methods applied consistently, and (2) range of LMFBR costs consistent with current thought on advanced designs

1985-01-01

353

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

1996-12-01

354

The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.

Camelia SURUGIU

2009-01-01

355

Cost collection and analysis for health economic evaluation.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

OBJECTIVE: To improve the understanding of common health care cost collection, estimation, analysis, and reporting methodologies. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE (1947 to December 2012), Cochrane Central register of Controlled Trials, Database of Systematic Reviews, Health Technology Assessment, and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database. REVIEW METHODS: This article discusses the following cost collection methods: defining relevant resources, quantification of consumed resources, and resource valuation. It outlines the recommendations for cost reporting in economic evaluations and reviews the techniques on how to handle cost data uncertainty. Last, it discusses the controversial topics of future costs and patient productivity losses. CONCLUSION: Health care cost collection and estimation can be challenging, and an organized approach is required to optimize accuracy of economic evaluation outcomes. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Understanding health care cost collection and estimation techniques will improve both critical appraisal and development of future economic evaluations.

Smith KA; Rudmik L

2013-08-01

356

Economic analysis of solar energy systems using spreadsheets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper the method employed for a detailed economic analysis of a solar energy system is presented. A spreadsheet computer program is used as a tool for the economic analysis because the general format of such a program is a table with cells which can contain values or formulae and the fact that they incorporate many build-in functions. System optimisation is also presented through an example for a hot water system. Both of them show that the method presented here is both accurate and fast. Although the method presented here deals with solar systems, it is applicable to all energy producing systems and consequently to all renewable energy systems. (Author).

1996-01-01

357

To What Extent Educational Planning and Policy Decision ought to Be Guided by Economic Considerations – A Case Study on Recent Educational Developments of Hong Kong  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The ascendance to popularity of the liberal ideologies and the concepts of political economy of education will be put forward as the root cause for an increasing subordination of education objectives to national economic goals. Through a case study of the educational development of Hong Kong, this paper will evaluate the extent to which educational planning and policy decision should be guided by economic considerations. Although the rapid economic growth of Hong Kong and the rapid expansion of its education system in the past decades took place in parallel, there is no evidence that Hong Kong’s economic success is directly brought about by its education. It will be concluded that apart from economic contributions, education has its own intrinsic values. While economic considerations are useful for planning and policymaking at a macro level, it may not be appropriate to indiscriminately apply economic principles in an intrusive way to direct the priorities of institution management and classroom teaching.

Margaret Wai Ki LO

2010-01-01

358

An economic framework for fertility analysis.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

The standard formulation of the microeconomic theory of fertility, which emphasizes the demand for children and, to a lesser extent, the costs of fertility control, is too limited in its scope for use by most demographers and sociologists. The approach advanced in this paper adds to the usual theory a more explicit and formal treatment of the production of children, including the possibility of shifts in production independent of demand conditions. This more comprehensive framework is compared with the usual approach in the analysis of several empirical problems-non-marital fertility, premodern fertility fluctuations and differentials, and the secular fertility decline-and is shown to be better suited for incorporating the concepts and hypotheses of noneconomists along with those of economists.

Easterlin RA

1975-03-01

359

Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

Rosati N

2002-04-01

360

A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events.

Reay, Karen A.; Andrews, John D

2002-10-01

 
 
 
 
361

A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events.

2002-01-01

362

Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation) vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation) importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods will generally increase labor supply, while relatively more technological advance for existing goods will reduce labor supply to the market. These impacts are seen to provide insights into Rostow’s stages of growth. Short run variations in the relative importance of the two types of technological change are seen to imply unpredictable business cycle behavior of the type we observe. The welfare implications of national income accounting that fails to consider changes in leisure are discussed.

Philip E. Graves

2011-01-01

363

Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

1980-01-01

364

Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility.

2000-01-01

365

Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System (MIDAS): Volume 1, Model overview: Final report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MIDAS (Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System) is an innovative utility planning tool that facilitates the analysis of risk. Three features distinguish this framework from other planning models: it incorporates a generalized decision analysis approach; it includes a completely integrated planning model for demand-supply evaluation; and the complete model runs on a microcomputer. 24 figs.

Farber, M.; Brusger, E.; Gerber, M.

1988-04-01

366

Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.  

Science.gov (United States)

|The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

367

A citation-analysis of economic research institutes  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The citation analysis of the research output of the German economic research institutes presented here is based on publications in peer-reviewed journals listed in the Social Science Citation Index for the 2000-2009 period. The novel feature of the paper is that a count data model quantifies the det...

Ketzler, Rolf; Zimmermann, Klaus F.

368

The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72%) respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC) in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17%) whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

Teerawattananon Yot; Russell Steve

2008-01-01

369

The "amazing" fertility decline: Islam, economics, and reproductive decision making among working-class Moroccan women.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Often it is understood that Islam prohibits family planning because the Qur'an does not explicitly address contraception. Public health and development officials have recently congratulated the Muslim world for decreases in fertility given the supposed constraints placed on reproductive healthcare by Islam, while popular culture writers have warned the West of threats by young Muslims if the population goes uncontrolled. This article draws on data collected through interviews with working-class women seeking reproductive healthcare at clinics in Rabat, Morocco, and with medical providers to challenge the link between Islamic ideology and reproductive practices and the correlation among Islam, poverty, and fertility. Morocco, a predominantly Muslim country, has experienced a dramatic decrease in fertility between the 1970s and today. I argue that patients and providers give new meanings to modern reproductive practices and produce new discourses of reproduction and motherhood that converge popular understandings of Islam with economic conditions of the Moroccan working class.

Hughes CL

2011-12-01

370

Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

2003-06-01

371

Verbal rating of alternative research reactors using fuzzy decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An approach is introduced here for making decisions about alternative research reactor types based on their compatibility with the environment of Saudi Arabia and is applied to the choice between pool, light water tank, heavy water tank, and TRIGA reactors. The method is based on the fuzzy decision theory, and it allows for consideration of the availability of required local resources as well as ease of acquisition of imported resources, community acceptance, and future expandability. The use of fuzzy decision theory can overcome the numerical precision of a decision maker's judgment by allowing verbal rating and weighting for each attribute and subattribute.

Abulfaraj, W.H.

1986-01-01

372

Verbal rating of alternative research reactors using fuzzy decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] An approach is introduced here for making decisions about alternative research reactor types based on their compatibility with the environment of Saudi Arabia and is applied to the choice between pool, light water tank, heavy water tank, and TRIGA reactors. The method is based on the fuzzy decision theory, and it allows for consideration of the availability of required local resources as well as ease of acquisition of imported resources, community acceptance, and future expandability. The use of fuzzy decision theory can overcome the numerical precision of a decision maker's judgment by allowing verbal rating and weighting for each attribute and subattribute

1986-01-01

373

Family planning and contraceptive decision-making by economically disadvantaged, African-American women.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Significant racial disparities exist in the US unplanned pregnancy rate. We conducted a qualitative study using the theory of planned behavior as a framework to describe how low-income, African-American women approach family planning. STUDY DESIGN: Structured focus groups were held with adult, low-income, nonpregnant, African-American women in Connecticut. Data were collected using a standardized discussion guide, audio-taped and transcribed. Four independent researchers coded the transcripts using the constant comparative method. Codes were organized into overarching themes. RESULTS: Contraceptive knowledge was limited, with formal contraceptive education often occurring after sexual debut. Attitudes about contraception were overtly negative, with method effectiveness being judged by the presence of side effects. Family and friends strongly influence contraceptive decisions, while male partners are primarily seen as a barrier. Contraceptive pills are perceived as readily accessible, although compliance is considered a barrier. CONCLUSIONS: Contraception education should occur before sexual debut, should involve trusted family and community members and should positively frame issues in terms of achieving life goals.

Hodgson EJ; Collier C; Hayes L; Curry LA; Fraenkel L

2013-08-01

374

Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC) - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

Manvinder Singh Pahwa; Amanpreet Singh Chopra

2013-01-01

375

Voluntary Participation in Community Economic Development in Canada: An Empirical Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This article is an empirical analysis of an individual's decision to participate in community economic development (CED) initiatives in Canada. The objective of the analysis is to better understand how individuals make decisions to volunteer time toward CED initiatives and to determine whether the determinants of participation in CED are unique when compared to those of participation in volunteer activities in general. The dataset employed is Statistics Canada's 2004 Canada Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating (CSGVP). To date, there has been no prior econometric analysis of the decision to participate in community economic development initiatives in Canada. Results suggest a role for both public policymakers and practitioners in influencing participation in CED. / Cet article constitue une analyse empirique du processus de prise de décision chez les individus en ce qui a trait à la participation aux initiatives canadiennes de développement économique communautaire (DÉC). Le but de l'analyse est de mieux comprendre la façon dont les individus prennent la décision de consacrer du temps au bénévolat dans les initiatives de DÉC. Elle sert aussi à trancher la question de savoir si les facteurs de participation aux initiatives de développement économique communautaire sont uniques ou communs à la participation à des activités bénévoles en général. Les données employées dans le cadre de cette analyse sont puisées de l'Enquête canadienne sur le don, le bénévolat et la participation effectuée par Statistique Canada en 2004. À ce jour, aucune analyse économétrique n'a été menée sur la décision de participer aux initiatives canadiennes de DÉC. Les résultats suggèrent que les responsables de l'élaboration des politiques ainsi que les praticiens influencent tous deux la participation aux initiatives de DÉC.

Laura Lamb

2011-01-01

376

Forecast of the Economic- Financial Performance Based on Diagnostic Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available To ensure efficient financial management is necessary to achieve the forecast of economic and financial performance on the basis of diagnostic analysis, approach most often developed starting from the prediction of turnover and also necessary for shaping an organization's prospects. In financial management, the turnover’s increasing is considered an objective in itself, being interpreted as generating increased market share, profit. Sales condition therefore the entire activity of a company, their variation being considered the main risk factor of enterprise’s economic and financial performance and the staring point in their forecast.

Daniela Solomon; Simona Dragomirescu

2010-01-01

377

Economic cost analysis in cancer management and its relevance today  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The global cancer burden has shown a distinct shift in the last two decades and its financial impact can be large, even among patients living in high resource countries, with comprehensive health insurance policies. It is hard to imagine its impact on patients of developing countries where insurance policies exist infrequently and often cost becomes the greatest barrier in availing cancer treatment. It is recognized that these costs include the direct cost of disease treatment and care, indirect costs accrued by the patient and the family, and economic losses to the society as a whole. Economic cost analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis has emerged as a basic tool in the evaluation of health-care practices. To date, these cost data have been collected only sporadically, even in the most developed countries, and there is a great need for incorporating economic cost assessment practices in developing countries, so that patients and their families can access the care adequately. The current review has been done using pubmed and medline search with keywords like cancer, cost-analysis, cost-effectiveness, economic burden, medical cost, etc.

Sharma K; Das S; Mukhopadhyay A; Rath G; Mohanti B

2009-01-01

378

ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMICAL-FINANCIAL BUSINESS OF THE CONTRIBUTORS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The work is trying to define and to impose the economical-financial analysis of the contributors as a mainidentification method of the fiscal evasion. The careful analysis of the financial documents of a company and theircorrelation with the factual reality must be the main identification method of the fiscal evasion on the economic agentlevel. This hereby work presents the main relevant financial indexes regarding their capacity to surprise the existenceof the fiscal evasion on the level of a company and of the existing connections between their level and the existence ofthe fiscal evasion phenomenon. The economical-financial analysis becomes a support for the fiscal evasion fightespecially through the fiscal inspection. Te calculation of the financial indexes and the settlement of an alert marginregarding their value can be clear indexes for the financial inspections concerning the existence of the phenomenon onthe level of a company and will help them in the identification of the evasion methods.This hereby survey opens up theresearch opportunities regarding the existing connections between the economical-financial indexes of a company andthe fiscal evasion on its level.

George Dorin DEDU

2011-01-01

379

Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are analyzed the relations between different quantitative aspects of the buying decision and the impulsive buying reactions of the consumer.

Corina PEL?U

2012-01-01

380

Tactical techno-economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood waste fuels in a heating plant  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, we investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made using three different energy efficiency and forest technology rates. Then the decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels (below-ground) on a tactical decision-making horizon. With this aim, fuel data of three forest fuel procurement teams were collected for 3 months. The strategic fuel procurement decisions were adjusted to the changed decision environment based on a tactical techno-economic analysis using forest technology rates. The optimal energy product and fuel mixtures were solved by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

Palander Teijo; Vesa Lauri

2012-01-01

 
 
 
 
381

Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

2011-01-01

382

Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society  

Science.gov (United States)

Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

383

Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support  

Science.gov (United States)

Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

384

Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP) and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC) was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

Udude Celina C; Okulegu Bethran Enyim

2012-01-01

385

[Emergy analysis of ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province].  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

By the methods of emergy analysis, this paper studied the emergy flow in the ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province in 1990-2005, and the relationships between the environmental stress caused by resources' input, output and consumption and the sustainable development of the Province. The results showed that in Liaoning Province, the non-renewable resources occupied over 74% of the total consumed emergy, and the realistic population in 2005 was 3.26 times higher than the supportable population. In 1990-2005, the emergy yield ratio decreased from 65.40 to 10.13, emergy loading ratio increased from 2.72 to 7.18, and emergy sustainable index decreased from 24.03 to 1.41. The rapid economic growth in Liaoning Province was chiefly supported by the consumption of vast non-renewable resources, which caused the pressure of economic development on ecosystem getting more and more intense, the economic development increasingly depending on exogenous resources, and the sustainable development of Liaoning ecological-economic system having a continuing decrease. To realize the sustainable development in Liaoning Province, the principles of reduction, reutilization and recycling should be taken as the guidelines for promoting the reuse of wastes and the closed fine circulation of resources to minimize the discharge of wastes.

Liu H; Wang Q; Li XJ; Song Y; Li GJ

2008-03-01

386

[Emergy analysis of ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province].  

Science.gov (United States)

By the methods of emergy analysis, this paper studied the emergy flow in the ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province in 1990-2005, and the relationships between the environmental stress caused by resources' input, output and consumption and the sustainable development of the Province. The results showed that in Liaoning Province, the non-renewable resources occupied over 74% of the total consumed emergy, and the realistic population in 2005 was 3.26 times higher than the supportable population. In 1990-2005, the emergy yield ratio decreased from 65.40 to 10.13, emergy loading ratio increased from 2.72 to 7.18, and emergy sustainable index decreased from 24.03 to 1.41. The rapid economic growth in Liaoning Province was chiefly supported by the consumption of vast non-renewable resources, which caused the pressure of economic development on ecosystem getting more and more intense, the economic development increasingly depending on exogenous resources, and the sustainable development of Liaoning ecological-economic system having a continuing decrease. To realize the sustainable development in Liaoning Province, the principles of reduction, reutilization and recycling should be taken as the guidelines for promoting the reuse of wastes and the closed fine circulation of resources to minimize the discharge of wastes. PMID:18533536

Liu, Hao; Wang, Qing; Li, Xiu-Juan; Song, Yang; Li, Guang-Jun

2008-03-01

387

Economism  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism), but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism). The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism) by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

P. Simons

2010-01-01

388

INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

2009-01-01

389

Low level waste management economics through computer analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Expenditures on waste management systems in a nuclear power generating station can be substantial, both in capital and operating costs. Utility engineers and management personnel responsible for these systems must be equipped with the most modern technical and economic tools in order to be able to make sound decisions on the short-term and long-term management strategies. These management strategies can include the installation of radioactive waste solidification or volume reduction systems and the addition of interim local storage capabilities for radioactive waste. The choices available for a given strategy are enormous. Further, each option is dependent on a number of interrelated factors. Fortunately, these factors are quantifiable and the methodology of doing economic studies lends itself to being programmed into a computer. This paper focuses on a computer program, RWCOST, which has been developed to evaluate operation costs associated with a set of selected system and operating alternatives. The program is based upon projections of the expected annual radioactive waste volumes associated with each alternative over a specified plant life

1984-01-01

390

Decision analysis applied to a utility's decisions resulting from intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC). Final report  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report documents conclusions and recommendations made to a particular utility about decisions that result because of the possibility of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) in pipe welds. The total expected cost and the uncertainty associated with the alternatives of no prevention action, the induction heat stress improvement (IHSI) procedure, and the replacement of the reactor coolant system piping are compared. The IHSI alternative dominates the others so strongly that there is little value in resolving key technical or regulatory uncertainties prior to making the decision. The inapplicability of IHSI to a small fraction of welds does not appreciably diminish its attractiveness. Inspection programs for large welds are of relatively little value. This report illustrates a framework for the combined treatment of technical, regulatory, and operational uncertainties.

1982-01-01

391

Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. METHODS: An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers' knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. RESULTS: The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer's costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic evaluation skill set of decision-makers. CONCLUSIONS: Financial information is particularly important at the front end of implementation decisions, and can be a key deciding factor of whether to go forward with a new OHS intervention. In addition, it appears that current practice in occupational health in the healthcare sector is not solidly grounded in evidence-based decision-making and strategies should be developed to improve this.

van Dongen JM; Tompa E; Clune L; Sarnocinska-Hart A; Bongers PM; van Tulder MW; van der Beek AJ; van Wier MF

2013-01-01

392

Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

[en] In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

2005-01-01

393

Uranium thorium dioxide fuel-cycle and economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The fuel division of Framatome ANP (Advanced Nuclear Power) is performing a fuel-cycle analysis for uranium-thorium dioxide (U/Th) reactor fuel as part of a U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Research Initiative project titled, ''Advanced Proliferation Resistant, Lower Cost, Uranium-Thorium Dioxide Fuels for Light Water Reactor'', (DE-FC03-99SF21916). The objective is to evaluate the economic viability of the U/Th fuel cycle in commercial nuclear reactors operating in the U.S. This analysis includes formulating the evaluation methodology, validating the methodology via benchmark calculations, and performing a fuel-cycle analysis and corresponding economic evaluation. The APOLLO2-F computer program of Framatome ANP SCIENCE package was modified to incorporate the thorium decay chains and provide cross sections for the SCIENCE fuel-cycle analysis. A comparison and economic evaluation was made between UO{sub 2} and UO{sub 2}/ThO{sub 2} fuel cycles in a typical 193-fuel assembly pressurized water reactor using reload batch sizes corresponding to batch average discharge burnups of 50, 70, and 90 GWd/mtHM. Results show an increase in front-end costs for the UO{sub 2}/ThO{sub 2} cycles due primarily to the higher cost in separative work units for enriching the uranium to 19.5 wt% {sup 235}U. (author)

Gale, J.D.; Spetz, S.W. [Framatome ANP, Inc., Lynchburg, Va. (United States)

2001-07-01

394

Illuminating decision drivers using a decision analysis framework for the U.S. nuclear fuel cycle  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuclear fuel cycle studies have provided a wealth of information on the potential impacts of advanced recycling systems. Deciding on fuel cycle implementation pathways, however, will require synthesizing the volumes of data and navigating tradeoffs between fuel cycle options. This research presents a framework intended to aid fuel cycle decision-makers, focusing on the cost reduction/waste mitigation tradeoff as a lens for choosing a near-term strategy. The framework consists of a fuel cycle simulation coupled to a decision tree model, which maps evolution scenarios. System scenarios are constructed by considering the technological options for fuel cycle evolution and key uncertainties expected to affect the desirability of those options. For this initial study, the once-through fuel cycle is compared to a self-sustaining fast reactor fuel cycle. System scenarios are compared using a value function that incorporates cost and waste metrics. The results indicate that uranium costs and the attainable level of reprocessing efficiency may not significantly impact the suite of desirable decisions. On the other hand, the pattern and timing of nuclear builds, as well as the extent to which fast reactors provide true waste mitigation, are two issues which more significantly affect the attractiveness of closing the fuel cycle. (author)

2011-01-01

395

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.  

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cos