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Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. DECISION ANALYSIS IN FUZZY ECONOMICS

    Aliev, Rafiq

    2009-01-01

    Tracing the development of economics since the 19th century up to the present day makes it evident that at its core there is a sequence of rather precise and mathematically sophisticated axiomatic theories. At the same time, there is always a noticeable and persistent gap between economic reality and the economic predictions derived from these theories. The main reason why economic theories have not been successful so far in modeling economic reality is the fact that these theories are formul...

  2. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  3. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  4. Economic aspects of clinical decision making: applications of clinical decision analysis.

    Crane, V S

    1988-03-01

    Clinical decision analysis as a basic tool for decision making is described, and potential applications of decision analysis in six areas of clinical practice are identified. Clinical decision analysis is a systematic method of describing clinical problems in a quantitative fashion, identifying possible courses of action, assessing the probability and value of outcomes, and then making a calculation to select the ultimate course of action. Clinical decision analysis provides a structure for clinical decision problems, helps clarify medical controversies, and encourages decision makers to speak a common language. Applications of clinical decision analysis in the areas of diagnostic testing, patient management, product and program selection, research and education, patient preferences, and health-care-policy evaluation are described. Decision analysis offers health professionals a tool for making quantifiable, cost-effective clinical decisions, especially in terms of clinical outcomes. PMID:3285672

  5. Introduction: Behavioral economics, business decision making and applied policy analysis

    Berg, Nathan

    2007-01-01

    The emergence of behavioural economics has provided new insights into economic and business phenomena by integrating elements of economic theory and experimental psychology. So far, the behavioural economics research agenda has concentrated on the empirical validity of foundational assumptions, producing new descriptive accounts of behavioural patterns that are difficult to explain using traditional neoclassical assumptions. This agenda has now developed sufficiently to begin exploring how to...

  6. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and l...

  7. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  8. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost...

  9. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  10. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 7 (Principles Underlying The Economic Analysis of Projects)

    Glenn Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo; Arnold C. Harberger

    2011-01-01

    While the financial analysis of a project focuses on matters of interest to investors, bankers, public sector budgets, etc., an economic analysis deals with the impact of the project on the entire society. The primary difference between the economic and financial evaluation is that the former aggregates benefits and costs over all the country's residents to determine whether the project improves the level of economic welfare of the country as a whole while the latter conside'rs the project fr...

  11. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

  12. Behavioral Public Economics: Welfare and Policy Analysis with Non-Standard Decision-Makers

    B. Douglas Bernheim; Antonio Rangel

    2005-01-01

    This paper has two goals. First, we discuss several emerging approaches to applied welfare analysis under non-standard (“behavioral”) assumptions concerning consumer choice. This provides a foundation for Behavioral Public Economics. Second, we illustrate applications of these approaches by surveying behavioral studies of policy problems involving saving, addiction, and public goods. We argue that the literature on behavioral public economics, though in its infancy, has already fundamentally ...

  13. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  14. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    2006-01-01

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the An...

  15. Cost-Benefit Analysis for Investment Decisions: Chapter 10 (Economic Prices for Tradable Goods and Services)

    Glenn Jenkins; Chun-Yan Kuo; Arnold C Harberger

    2011-01-01

    In the integrated financial and economic analysis, there is a need to choose a numeraire in which all costs and benefits are expressed. The most common practice has been to express all costs and benefits in terms of domestic currency at a domestic price level. This is the natural rule to follow for the construction of the financial cash flow statement of a project that includes all the financial receipts and all the expenditures in each period throughout the duration of the project. When this...

  16. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  17. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  18. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

    Tainio Marko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying

  20. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  1. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised...... informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the Animal Health Economics workshops which was held on the 9th and 10th of November, 2006 at the Research Centre...... Foulum in Denmark. Different disciplines and approaches within Animal Health Economics are dealt with by the different scientists and the report contains a variety of novel results and projects. The resulting discussion is summarized in the report....

  2. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  3. An Institutional Economic Analysis of the Decision to Do-it-yourself in Housing Renovation

    Ti-Ching Peng

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines home renovators’ decision in choosing do-it-yourself (DIY) or hiring contractors. DIY may reduce financial pressure but may lead to potential domestic discord and perils of incompetence; hiring contractors may alleviate time pressures but may require more financial resource. This choice is modelled as analogous to Williamson’s corporate strategic decision between ‘outsourcing’ and ‘internalisation’ in the context of vertical integration, and extended via Richar...

  4. Economic analysis

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  5. Research on decision support systems in the current economic context

    Florin BOGHEAN

    2014-01-01

    The complexity of economic activities in terms of the competition imposed by the current economy acts to increase the role of economic financial information in decision-making.The quality of information is paramount for the quality of current and long-term decisions, and therefore for the entity's forecast results.In this article, we intend to perform an analysis of the usefulness of the information provided by the accounting department in decision making processes.The research typology emplo...

  6. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  7. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  8. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  9. Economics: Scarcity and Citizen Decision-Making.

    Gilliard, June V.; Morton, John S.

    1981-01-01

    Maintaining that economics can contribute significantly to the achievement of citizenship education goals within the social studies program, this article offers information on concepts for analyzing economic policies, dealing with policy issues in the classroom, and understanding the relationship of scarcity to decision making. (DB)

  10. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY

  11. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the

  12. Economic analysis

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  13. Alara and decision analysis

    In applying ALARA somebody has to determine what is reasonable. A decision has to be made. Decision Analysis is a procedure for structuring decision problems, and therefore it might be expected to be of use in the application of the ALARA principle. This paper explores the contribution that Decision Analysis may make in this context, particularly discussing the application of multi-attribute value theory. An example of using the theory on a problem of radioactive waste disposal is given, and the potential of an increased use of Decision Analysis in making the ALARA principle work, is discussed

  14. Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

  15. Technical and economic analysis of the decisions efficiency of system of water vapor condensate collecting and reusing organization in the industrial firm practice

    Khamidullina, G. R.

    2016-06-01

    We consider the technical and economic aspects of power - and resource-recovery decisions on a steam condensate recycling and effective using of the (residual) afterheat containing in it basing on the specifics of the industrial enterprises. Below there are the results of the technical and economic analysis of the original innovative solution introduced in practice of the organization of system of collecting and recycling using of water vapor condensate in the conditions of high probability of its pollution by hydrocarbon joints and a non-return of condensate to the source. Also we showed here the high efficiency of the proposed solution.

  16. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-01-01

    The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision ...

  17. Economic Evaluation Enhances Public Health Decision Making

    Rabarison, Kristina M.; Connie L. Bish; Massoudi, Mehran S.; Giles, Wayne H.

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking “how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical ...

  18. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  19. Ethics in economic decision-making

    Leliveld, Marijke Christina

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation sheds more light on ethics in economic decision-making. Over the course of nine experiments, I studied (a) when people adhere to ethical standards like the do-no-harm principle, and (b) how people respond to situations in which ethical standards are violated by studying not only punishing behavior but also compensation behavior. I show that when people know that by furthering their self-interest they harm another person (either by taking from or by allocating a loss to the o...

  20. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Guy Hutton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

  1. Economic Analysis of Law

    Louis Kaplow; Steven Shavell

    1999-01-01

    This entry for the forthcoming The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Second Edition) surveys the economic analysis of five primary fields of law: property law; liability for accidents; contract law; litigation; and public enforcement and criminal law. It also briefly considers some criticisms of the economic analysis of law.

  2. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  3. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  4. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  5. Employment, Income and Labour Supply Decision of Rural Households : An Economic Analysis of MGNREGS in Tamil Nadu

    Devi, T. Sivasakthi; Balasubramanian, R.; Kumar, B. Ganesh

    2011-01-01

    In India, Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGMGNREGS) is one of the major rural development programmes. It provides guaranteed employment to the rural households for 100 days in a year. This paper has attempted to find out the employment status, income and labour supply decision of the participants and non-participants of MGNREGS in Tamil Nadu. It has also studied the household nutritional security of these households. The study has revealed that the number of migran...

  6. Knowledge of Social Affiliations Biases Economic Decisions

    Martinez, Joel E.; Mack, Michael L.; Gelman, Bernard D.; Preston, Alison R.

    2016-01-01

    An individual’s reputation and group membership can produce automatic judgments and behaviors toward that individual. Whether an individual’s social reputation impacts interactions with affiliates has yet to be demonstrated. We tested the hypothesis that during initial encounters with others, existing knowledge of their social network guides behavior toward them. Participants learned reputations (cooperate, defect, or equal mix) for virtual players through an iterated economic game (EG). Then, participants learned one novel friend for each player. The critical question was how participants treated the friends in a single-shot EG after the friend-learning phase. Participants tended to cooperate with friends of cooperators and defect on friends of defectors, indicative of a decision making bias based on memory for social affiliations. Interestingly, participants’ explicit predictions of the friends’ future behavior showed no such bias. Moreover, the bias to defect on friends of defectors was enhanced when affiliations were learned in a social context; participants who learned to associate novel faces with player faces during reinforcement learning did not show reputation-based bias for associates of defectors during single-shot EG. These data indicate that when faced with risky social decisions, memories of social connections influence behavior implicitly. PMID:27441563

  7. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  8. The Role of Economic Space in Decision Making

    Margaret E. Slade

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role that economic space plays in private and public decision making. Both geographic and characteristic space are considered. The choice of spatial location, whether it be a physical location or a product position, can have significant consequences for other economic decisions, and those secondary decisions are the focus of the paper. In particular, it is useful to have methods of measuring economic proximity in geographic and characteristic space and to have ways of ...

  9. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  10. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  11. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference

  12. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  13. Economic Analysis of Constitutions

    Roger B. Myerson

    2000-01-01

    This paper is a preliminary draft of an article to appear in Chicago Law Review (2000), as part of a symposium reviewing two new books on economic analysis of constitutions: Dennis Mueller's Constitutional Democracy and Robert Cooter's Strategic Constitution. Some of the basic questions of constitutional analysis are introduced, and the importance of work in this area is shown as one of the major new developments in social theory. The methods of economic theory are then shown to be particular...

  14. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  15. Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?

    Farb NA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

  16. Effects of approach and withdrawal motivation on interactive economic decisions

    Harle, K.M.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    Although recent economic models of human decision making have recognised the role of emotion as an important biasing factor, the impact of incidental emotion on decisions has remained poorly explored. To address this question, we jointly explored the role of emotional valence (i.e., positive vs. neg

  17. Economic Analysis of Law

    Louis Kaplow; Steven Shavell

    1999-01-01

    This is a survey of the field of economic analysis of law, focusing on the work of economists. The survey covers the three central areas of civil law liability for accidents (tort law), property law, and contracts as well as the litigation process and public enforcement of law.

  18. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

  19. Theoretical Aspects of Collective Decision Making - Survey of the Economic Literature

    Stanek Piotr Ph.D.

    2013-01-01

    The article aims at surveying the economic literature related to collective decision making. In order to do so it proposes a coherent framework allowing for a structured analysis of the factors influencing the works of a committee. These factors are divided into external ( shaped outside of the committee e.g. by law) and internal ones (related to the composition of the committee and interactions between its members). The survey of the general economic literature related to collective decision...

  20. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation. PMID:1894809

  1. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  2. Real Estate Industry's Decision-making and Response Analysis under Economic Downside Risk%经济下行风险下的地产行业决策与应对分析

    李劲

    2015-01-01

    随着中国经济下行,地产行业投资决策的风险越来越高。传统的策略分析能够在正常经济环境下的地产行业决策中起到较好的作用,但是在经济存在下行风险的条件下,对于构建地产投资组合决策模型以降低风险的效果较差。因此,本文提出一种优化的蚁群聚类算法并在此基础上建立考虑经济下行风险的房地产行业策略分析模型,对经济下行条件下地产行业决策进行数据聚类研究,使用经济指标以及地产收益率聚类等地产行业决策策略,对其数据进行剖析,并进行了实证分析,证明了利用分类决策的可行性和较优效果,为经济下行条件下地产行业决策的风险控制提供了理论基础。%With the downturn of China's economy, the risk in the decision-making of China's real estate industry becomes higher and higher. In the normal economic environment, traditional strategy analysis plays a good role in the decision-mak⁃ing of the real estate industry, but under economy downside risks, to build real estate portfolio decision-making model in order to reduce the risk is of poor effect. Therefore, the paper proposes an optimized ant clustering algorithm, considering the economic downturn risk,an strategic analysis model of the real estate industry is set up to conduct the data clustering research of real estate decision-making under the condition of the economic downturn, using economic indicators, property yields clustering and other decision strategies of the real estate industry to dissect the data and carry on the empirical analy⁃sis, which proves that the utilization of classification decision is of feasibility and has a better effect, thus provides a theoret⁃ical basis for the risk control of real estate industry’s decision-making under the economic downturn condition.

  3. How Do Location Decisions of Firms and Households Affect Economic Development in Rural America?

    Wu, Junjie; Gopinath, Munisamy

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the causes of spatial inequalities in economic development across rural America. A theoretical model is developed to analyze interactions between location decisions of firms and households as they are affected by natural endowments, accumulated human and physical capital, and economic geography. Based on the theoretical analysis, an empirical model is specified to quantify the effect of these factors on key indicators of economic development across counties in the United S...

  4. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  5. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter from Einstein and the coincidence in time between the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the developments in science and technology for the entire second half of the twentieth century. For the first time in the entire history of the world the leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that fundamental research can bring great practical benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of countries. Namely, they can give the brand new super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a broad organizational and financial support of fundamental and deriving from them applied research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental and applied research on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress. We consider the development of mathematical methods of research and information technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial intelligence"

  6. Techno-economic analysis

    The costs of the production and upgrading of biomass pyrolysis oils and the production costs of electricity in plants using them as fuels are analysed. The performance and cost estimates show that while the crude liquids can be economic at low feedstock costs, refined hydrocarbons are not competitive without credits for low sulphur and environmental and socio-economic contributions. As feedstock cost is the major cost item, any process that can utilise waste materials having low inherent cost will have the best chance to show economic viability in the short term. Analysis of the costs of generating electricity from the combustion of organic raw materials derived from biomass and wastes shows that a substantial reduction can be achieved by increasing the yield of plants grown for energy use. If this is combined with technological developments which can achieve conversion efficiencies comparable with those of large combined-cycle systems based on fossil-fuels, then biomass derived electricity can be competitive. Such competitivity can be enhanced in the short term where set-aside payments can be used to reduce net biomass production cost. (7 figures, 4 tables). (UK)

  7. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  8. Decision Analysis and Expert Systems

    Henrion, Max; Breese, John S.; Horvitz, Eric J.

    1991-01-01

    Decision analysis and expert systems are technologies intended to support human reasoning and decision making by formalizing expert knowledge so that it is amenable to mechanized reasoning methods. Despite some common goals, these two paradigms have evolved divergently, with fundamental differences in principle and practice. Recent recognition of the deficiencies of traditional AI techniques for treating uncertainty, coupled with the development of belief nets and influence diagrams, is stimu...

  9. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that

  10. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Flavia Mengarelli

    Full Text Available In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  11. Real analysis with economic applications

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimizatio

  12. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  13. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle

  14. Economic Analysis of Transnational Education

    Lien, Donald

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher…

  15. Economics of young stock rearing decisions on Dutch dairy farms

    Mohd Nor, N.B.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing intensiveness of agriculture has contributed to environmental pollution through a higher production of waste materials. The environmental and economic pressures mean that it is nowadays important that milk is produced in a more sustainable way. The young stock rearing enterprise also contributes to the sustainability of dairy farming. For example, decisions about the number of young stock to retain on the farm have consequences for the amount of waste produced. A more sustainab...

  16. Economic decision making: application of the theory of complex systems

    Robert Kitt

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and internatio...

  17. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa;

  18. Introduction to Economic Analysis

    R. Preston McAfee

    2005-01-01

    This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

  19. Economic impact analysis

    Bertelsen, Michael; Norton, George W.; Nguema, A.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation describes a research proposal to study the economic impact of the SANREM CRSP projects as a cross-cutting research activity. A linear programming model is proposed to measure the costs and benefits of conservation agriculture in the shorter and longer term. Data for the Economic Impact Cross Cutting Research Activity will be collected during the baseline surveys conducted by the individual LTRAs in years 1 and 4.

  20. Effects of Age-related Differences in Empathy on Social Economic Decision-Making

    Beadle, Janelle N.; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Background: The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-mak...

  1. Law versus Economics? How should insurance intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision

    Pape, Annika

    2013-01-01

    How should intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision? The answer must refer to the interdependence of economic determinants and legal duties. Intermediaries potentially guide demand decisions by delivering objective information and by considering individuals' situation and economic circumstances. The economic theory provides determinants that are essential for the insurance demand decision. Undoubtedly, consumers lack information about certain variables, and therefore misjudge th...

  2. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  3. Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

    Smith, James E; Detlof von Winterfeldt

    2004-01-01

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Managem...

  4. Economic Analysis of Microsoft Corp.

    Eliáš, Jan

    2013-01-01

    This thesis investigates economic situation of Microsoft Corporation in the last 7 years. In the literature review are introduced theoretical approaches to fundamental and technical tools and how to put fundamental and technical analysis together for best possible result despite the differences in both approaches. In practical part is executed economic analysis with main focus on fundamental and technical analysis and considered social aspects of such a global company. This part is execut...

  5. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  6. ISSUES IN STATE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    Maki, Wilbur R.

    1984-01-01

    This paper focuses on state and local governments and the policy choices affecting the state's long-term economic outlook. It addresses the preparation, organization and use of decision information in the management of state and local governments as these governments are affected by, and, in turn, affect the economy of the state. Its particular focus is on data, but timely and accurate information on the state of the state's economy and its prospects for growth and development in a rapidly ch...

  7. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H.; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.

    2011-01-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., “Big Five”, positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a “rational” versus an “irrational” response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated t...

  8. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  9. Determinants of Economic Reasoning in Monetary and Time-Allocation Decisions: An Exploratory Study.

    Kourilsky, Marilyn; Kehret-Ward, Trudy

    1983-01-01

    Participation in a college-level economics course appeared to be a very important predictor of economic cognition and of economic reasoning with respect to students' personal monetary decisions. Course participation was not a strong factor in economic reasoning with respect to time-allocation decisions. (RM)

  10. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  11. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  12. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  13. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing. PMID:26929353

  14. The management of business risk in justifying economic decisions

    G.М. Tarasyuk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The meaning of risk as an economic category, causes (the connection between the concepts of «risk» and «uncertainty» and its functions were examined in the article. The analysis and assessment methods of risks in agriculture were investigated. Organizational and economic methods for reducing risks to ensure minimal damage to its economic activity, the recommended basic principles which must be followed when choosing a management strategy in a particular situation, from which developed a number of activities for minimizing the risk: risk prevention; acceptance of risk; risk sharing. Organizational and economic methods risks reducing are ensurance minimal damage to its business activities, recommendations of basic principles which must be followed when choosing a management strategy .

  15. Implicit race attitudes predict trustworthiness judgments and economic trust decisions.

    Stanley, Damian A; Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Banaji, Mahzarin R; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2011-05-10

    Trust lies at the heart of every social interaction. Each day we face decisions in which we must accurately assess another individual's trustworthiness or risk suffering very real consequences. In a global marketplace of increasing heterogeneity with respect to nationality, race, and multiple other social categories, it is of great value to understand how implicitly held attitudes about group membership may support or undermine social trust and thereby implicitly shape the decisions we make. Recent behavioral and neuroimaging work suggests that a common mechanism may underlie the expression of implicit race bias and evaluations of trustworthiness, although no direct evidence of a connection exists. In two behavioral studies, we investigated the relationship between implicit race attitude (as measured by the Implicit Association Test) and social trust. We demonstrate that race disparity in both an individual's explicit evaluations of trustworthiness and, more crucially, his or her economic decisions to trust is predicted by that person's bias in implicit race attitude. Importantly, this relationship is robust and is independent of the individual's bias in explicit race attitude. These data demonstrate that the extent to which an individual invests in and trusts others with different racial backgrounds is related to the magnitude of that individual's implicit race bias. The core dimension of social trust can be shaped, to some degree, by attitudes that reside outside conscious awareness and intention. PMID:21518877

  16. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  17. Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

    Whalen, Thomas

    1992-01-01

    This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

  18. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  19. Roads Economic Decision Model for the Economic Evaluation of Low Volume Roads : Software User Guide and Case Studies

    Archondo-Callao, Rodrigo

    2004-01-01

    This manual presents the Roads Economic Decision Model (RED) developed to improve the decision-making process for the development and maintenance of low-volume rural roads. The model performs an economic evaluation of road investments options using the consumer surplus approach and is customized to the characteristics and needs of low-volume roads such as the high uncertainty of the assess...

  20. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  1. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF OBESITY

    Tahereh Alavi Hojjat

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, obesity has grown into a major global epidemic. Obesity in the United States is widely acknowledged to be a severe and growing problem. In the United States (U.S.), more than two-thirds of adults are now overweight and one-third of the overweight population is obese. There is growing evidence that obesity in America is largely an economic issue. In this paper, we will provide an overview and an economic analysis of obesity based on behavioral economics as a non-...

  2. Economic analysis of climate change

    Vojtíšek, Petr

    2012-01-01

    The bachelor thesis themed “Economic Analysis of Climate Change” focuses on the climate change from an economical point of view. The theoretical part sums up the basic facts about climate change, go through the most important social, environmental and economic impacts, main opinions about the climate change and also the main ideas of the mitigation and adaptation processes. The analyses tries to give the climate a monetary value with a use of non-market method to find out how much would be st...

  3. Economic Analysis for Health Projects.

    Hammer, Jeffrey S.

    1997-01-01

    The author applies to the health sector an approach to analyzing projects advocated in a recent paper by Devarajan, Squire, and Suthiwart-Narueput. In the health sector, a project evaluation should: 1) Establish a firm justification for public involvement. The author identifies a number of common failures in the markets for both health services and insurance but argues that this should be the starting place for economic analysis, not a reason to ignore economics; 2) Establish the counterfactu...

  4. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  5. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  6. Techno-Economic analysis

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  7. Is general practitioner decision making associated with patient socio-economic status?

    Scott, A; Shiell, A; King, M

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary exploration into the relationship between decisions made by general practitioners (GPs) and the socio-economic status (SES) of patients. There is a large literature on the association between SES, health state and the use of health services, but relatively little has been published on the association between SES and decisions by clinicians once a patient is in the health system. The associations between GP decision making and the patient's SES, health status, gender and insurance status are examined using logit analysis. Three sets of binary choices are analysed: the decision to follow up; to prescribe; and to perform or to order a diagnostic test. Secondary data on consultations for a check up/examination were used to explore these relationships. The results suggest that SES is associated independently with the decision to test and the decision to prescribe but not with the decision to follow up. Patients of high SES are, ceteris paribus, more likely to be tested and less likely to receive a prescription compared with patients of low SES. Women are more likely to be tested and to receive a prescription than men. These findings have implications for the pursuit of equity as a goal of health services policy. PMID:8745106

  8. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  9. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Economic Development Level of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone Using Principal Component Cluster Analysis

    Chunxiang; ZHAO; Xinrong; YAN; Xu; GUO

    2014-01-01

    Based on 10 years of statistics concerning economic development in Xi’an as the main part of Guanzhong- Tianshui Economic Zone, this article builds the main indicator system to reflect economic development. Using two mathematical methods( principal component analysis and cluster analysis),we carry out comprehensive evaluation analysis of the main economic indicators,point out the distribution differences in the economic development level in this region,and make classification,in order to provide a scientific basis for the decision- making body to lay down the relevant economic development strategies in accordance with the economic development level and geographical location.

  10. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...... which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project...... types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an...

  11. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  12. Energy-economics-environment analysis

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on topical studies related to energy and nuclear power in the context of sustainable development, and of techno-economic factors potentially affecting the future development of nuclear technologies. It offers over-arching analyses of energy, environmental and economic issues in the context of national sustainable development and energy security goals, and in competitive markets. These studies are done in collaboration with or used by MS and other international organisations for informed decision-making about the future role of nuclear technologies. The IAEA further offers energy assessments: comparing different energy technologies and choices, exploring and quantifying their costs, consequences and benefits, with a special focus, where appropriate, on nuclear power. Economic assessments offered include comparing the costs, relative cost-effectiveness and viability of nuclear and other technology choices, policy alternatives, or different climate change mitigation or sustainable development strategies, taking into account technology learning and innovation. Environmental assessments offered include estimating environmental impacts and external costs (health effects and materials damage) of pollution arising from specific energy production and use patterns

  13. Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges

    Baicoianu, A.; Dumitrescu, S

    2010-01-01

    Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, ...

  14. Decision analysis and bioequivalence trials

    Lindley, Dennis V.

    1998-01-01

    It is argued that the determination of bioequivalence involves a decision, and is not purely a problem of inference. A coherent method of decision-making is examined in detail for a simple trial of bioequivalence. The result is shown to differ seriously from the inferential method, using significance tests, ordinarily used. The reason for the difference is explored. It is shown how the decision-analytic method can be used in more complicated and realistic trials and the case...

  15. Methodology to decide optimum replacement term for components of nuclear power plants using decision analysis

    Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace major components of NPPs

  16. The technical language of economics has become more prevalent in justifying political decision-making

    O'Brien, Dave

    2012-01-01

    Dave O’Brien argues that the technocratic process of economic decision-making is increasingly being used to give legitimacy to policy decisions. However, the use of particular measurement systems reflects ideological positions, social conditions and bureaucratic histories.

  17. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  18. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. PMID:25855475

  19. An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

    Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

  20. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  1. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  2. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  3. Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

    Kawata, Yukichika

    2011-01-01

    Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

  4. Developmental Neuroeconomics: Lifespan Changes in Economic Decision Making

    Sproten, Alec Niklas

    2013-01-01

    The current thesis had one central aim: contributing to the understanding of age differences in decision making under uncertainty. Three studies were dedicated to investigate age differences in uncertain decisions in individual contexts. A fourth study aimed at developing a framework for the study of age differences in uncertain decisions with a social dimension. In the first study, we have shown the existence of age differences in ambiguous decisions, but not in risky decisions. More spe...

  5. Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease.

    Peeler, E J; Otte, M J

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at

  6. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks : A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brueggenjuergen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Ruediger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jurgen; Wichmann, Ole

    2016-01-01

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist,

  7. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  8. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    Li, Y.; Baldassi, M; Johnson, EJ; Weber, EU

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  9. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  10. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  11. Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

    Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

    2009-01-01

    Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

  12. Incidental sadness biases social economic decisions in the ultimatum game

    Harlé, K.M.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2007-01-01

    Recent dual-process models of decision making have suggested that emotion plays an important role in decision making: however, the impact of incidental moods (i.e., emotions unrelated to the immediate situation) on decisions remains poorly explored. This question was investigated by inducing 2 basic

  13. Energy-Systems Economic Analysis

    Doane, J.; Slonski, M. L.; Borden, C. S.

    1982-01-01

    Energy Systems Economic Analysis (ESEA) program is flexible analytical tool for rank ordering of alternative energy systems. Basic ESEA approach derives an estimate of those costs incurred as result of purchasing, installing and operating an energy system. These costs, suitably aggregated into yearly costs over lifetime of system, are divided by expected yearly energy output to determine busbar energy costs. ESEA, developed in 1979, is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution.

  14. Economic analysis of fuel recycle

    Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time

  15. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: Development of an integrated framework

    Spencer K. Lynn

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another. Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value. Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception — perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person’s scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day.

  16. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  17. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Matthew E. Bates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach. Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA, value of information (VOI, weight of evidence (WOE, and portfolio decision analysis (PDA can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  18. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges. PMID:26425410

  19. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ∼50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  20. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. T...

  1. A multi-criteria decision analysis tool to support electricity

    Ribeiro, Fernando; Ferreira, Paula Varandas; Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de

    2012-01-01

    A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool was designed to support the evaluation of different electricity production scenarios. The MCDA tool is implemented in Excel worksheet and uses information obtained from a mixed integer optimization model. Given the input, the MCDA allowed ranking different scenarios relying on their performance on 13 criteria covering economic, job market, quality of life of local populations, technical and environmental issues. The criteria were weighte...

  2. Using of fuzzy and imitation models and cluster analysis for decision of marketing tasks

    Borisova, Tetyana Myhaylivna; Bryndzya, Zinoviy Fedorovych

    2011-01-01

    Actuality of using of some economic-mathematical methods at the decision of marketing tasks is considered in the article. The examples of using of fuzzy evaluation, cluster analysis and imitation modelling in marketing are presented here.

  3. Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth

    Nielsen, Ron W

    2015-01-01

    Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and s...

  4. Does crime affect economic decisions? An empirical investigation of savings in a high-crime environment

    João Manoel Pinho de Mello; Eduardo Zilberman

    2006-01-01

    While most economic studies of crime have focused on its determinants, we study the reverse question: does crime affect economic behavior? Being such an important social phenomenon, one would expect crime to affect economic decisions. Using local data on crime rates and savings per capita in a high-crime environment, we document a striking empirical relationship: crime induces savings. Our paper is one of the first to successfully relate crime to an economic outcome. This result is robust to ...

  5. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth;

    2013-01-01

    by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information...... is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were...... just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study...

  6. Health system re-engineering: a CPRS economic decision model.

    Diehl, M.

    1995-01-01

    The fundamental problem with the health care delivery system remains too little health delivered for too great a cost. Information essential to sound clinical and administrative decision making is too frequently missing at the time and place of decision. Automated systems offer opportunities both to improve health and to reduce cost through effective and efficient information management. Information systems are the enabling technology for those business practice changes which improve the bene...

  7. Implicit race attitudes predict trustworthiness judgments and economic trust decisions

    Stanley, Damian A.; Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Banaji, Mahzarin R.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2011-01-01

    Trust lies at the heart of every social interaction. Each day we face decisions in which we must accurately assess another individual's trustworthiness or risk suffering very real consequences. In a global marketplace of increasing heterogeneity with respect to nationality, race, and multiple other social categories, it is of great value to understand how implicitly held attitudes about group membership may support or undermine social trust and thereby implicitly shape the decisions we make. ...

  8. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  9. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

    2008-10-01

    This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs) for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE) method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI). The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD), and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD) and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project......’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range...

  11. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  12. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Jakob eSimmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  13. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decisions in people with obesity.

    Simmank, Jakob; Murawski, Carsten; Bode, Stefan; Horstmann, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n = 52) completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discount rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before making financial decisions. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity toward changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short. PMID:26528158

  14. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  15. Integrating Economics with a Strategic Sustainable Planning Method; To enhance decision making processes.

    Abel, Kathleen A.

    2005-01-01

    Abstract: The complexity of environmental, social, economical, and technological objectives creates a challenge for decision makers when prioritizing the right measures that will move a project or organization toward sustainability at least cost. Currently there are methods or tools available to assist in this decision making and through a strategic approach potentially enhance the process. The focus of this thesis is to evaluate how the quantitative nature of economic detail as a tool which ...

  16. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

  17. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

  18. Can health economics aid decision making in healthcare innovation in academia?

    Lu, Bo; Martin, Jennifer L.; Craven, Michael P.; Morgan, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    Health economics is extensively used by reimbursement agencies to make decisions on whether to adopt new medical technologies. It is also used by the healthcare industry as an aid to decision making during product development. This paper proposes that academic healthcare technology transfer could also benefit from adopting health economics. The study investigated the knowledge and attitudes of academic staff involved in developing and transferring healthcare technologies. The participants had...

  19. Using decision analysis in physical protection planning

    The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

  20. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  1. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross l

  2. Increasing the impact of economic evaluations on health care decision-making

    Douglas Coyle

    1993-01-01

    Although there is a substantial amount of literature recording the increasing number of economic evaluations of health care interventions, there is little discussion of the level of impact such studies have had on decision-making. In this paper the evidence relating to impact which does exist is examined. The implication from this is that social science research has made little direct impact on health care decision-making. Theories relating to the process of research utilisation in decision-m...

  3. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

    2012-01-01

    Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision-making (PDM) is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate, and categorize noisy sensory information. Economic decision-making (EDM) explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the sub-fields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored diffe...

  4. Total Economic Value in Investment Analysis

    Sudarsono Soedomo

    2014-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are often defeated in decisions about investment and economic development.  There is a very wide gap between policy makers and development investment on the one hand and environmentalists on the other hand, who see the forest ecosystem from the perspective of ecology and environment.  The first party considers that forest ecosystems have a low value, while the second party often shows very fantastic figures about the economic value of forests. From the second party's point o...

  5. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  6. Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia

    Brennan, Donna

    2010-08-01

    Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

  7. The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions

    Izotov Viktor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

  8. Marketing Decision Support Systems and the New Economic Challenges

    Rocsana Bucea-Manea-Tonis; Radu Bucea-Manea-Tonis

    2011-01-01

    Even marketing is told to sell dreams to customers, it must take into account the real power of potential markets consumption that relies on the economic state-of-affairs. If the economic draw-back must change the methods used by marketing strategists or how the crises that lead to under-consumption even for the most common goods affect the publicity budget, it is a fair study to be made. We can only imagine how a commercial for a tiny electric car will appeal the inflated ego of a man from t...

  9. Sunk costs of consumer search: economic rationality of satisficing decision

    Sergey MALAKHOV

    2014-01-01

    The paper argues that sunk costs’ sensitivity can lead to the optimal consumption-leisure choice under price dispersion. The increase in quantity to be purchased with the extension of the time horizon of the consumption-leisure choice equalizes marginal costs of search with its marginal benefits. The implicit optimal choice results in the explicit satisficing decision. The transformation of cognitive mechanism of discouragement into satisficing happens only in the “common model” of consumer b...

  10. WOMEN'S BARGAINING POWER IN HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC DECISIONS: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

    Doss, Cheryl R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the percentage of assets held by women within the household is used as a measure of women's bargaining power. The assets used in this paper include land, savings, and business assets. Using detailed household survey data from Ghana, I demonstrate that the share of assets owned by women has a significant impact on household expenditure decisions. This provides additional support for the notion that women's bargaining power can be measured, at least in some dimensions, and that w...

  11. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  12. Applying economic analysis to technical assistance projects

    McMahon, Gary

    1997-01-01

    The author recommends using more quantitative economic analysis in appraising technical assistance loans and loan components. After giving a brief history of tecnhical assistance and the problems commonly associated with it, he describes classifications of technical assistance, proposes a new typology to be used for project appraisal, suggests methods for screening projects, and discusses different levels of economic analysis. He shows how the typology and economic analysis could be applied t...

  13. Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations

    By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

  14. Economics of young stock rearing decisions on Dutch dairy farms

    Mohd Nor, N.B.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing intensiveness of agriculture has contributed to environmental pollution through a higher production of waste materials. The environmental and economic pressures mean that it is nowadays important that milk is produced in a more sustainable way. The young stock rearing enterprise also

  15. Economic analysis of production bottlenecks

    Lawrence Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

  16. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to

  17. Committees versus individuals: an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making

    Lombardelli, Clare; Proudman, James; Talbot, James

    2002-01-01

    The results of an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making under uncertainty are reported. A large sample of economically literate undergraduate and postgraduate students from the London School of Economics was used to play a simple monetary policy game, both as individuals and in committees of five players. The findings - that groups make better decisions than individuals - accord with previous work by Blinder and Morgan. An attempt was also made to establish why group decisi...

  18. Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges

    Baicoianu, A.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

  19. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  20. Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Part 2: Economic analysis

    1972-01-01

    An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) cost uncertainties, (2) scenario analysis, (3) economic sensitivities, (4) mixed integer programming formulation of the space tug problem, and (5) critical parameters in the evaluation of a public expenditure.

  1. Environmental protection and economic policy decisions in developing countries

    Uhlig, Christian

    1992-01-01

    In view of the extent of environmental destruction in the Third World, it is necessary to make urgent use of all the instruments available in order to protect the environment and conserve natural resources. However, the priorities both of the people there and of their governments are more often aimed at economic growth than environmental protection, due to the low standards of living prevailing in these countries. How can this conflict of interests, which will be one of the main issues being ...

  2. Financial information, effects of financial information on economic decision

    Valentin Ioan UŞURELU; Alina Elena (Andrei) DANAILĂ; Mihai, Gabriela; Cristian Ionel VĂTĂŞOIU

    2010-01-01

    The studied field has suffered continuous transformation, both in interaction with other scientific fields and in constituent sub-classes, for discovering and understanding more deeply the contemporary economic realities under the impact of major trends of world development. This paper aims to analyze the location and the effects of information and communication technologies within the public accounting in order to evaluate the effects of this element on accounting research, teaching and prof...

  3. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  4. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

  5. Health economic analysis of screening

    Krauth, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified. Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

  6. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible. PMID:26581731

  7. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation

  8. Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, Tool 2. Data for Economic Analysis

    Czart, Christina; Chaloupka, Frank

    2013-01-01

    This tool provides a general introduction to 'the art' of building databases. It addresses a number of issues pertaining to the search, identification and preparation of data for meaningful economic analysis. It can best be thought of as a reference mechanism that provides support for the occasionally frustrated but endlessly hungry researcher working through the adventures of tobacco cont...

  9. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  10. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  11. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPLIED TO ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF AN AGRIBUSINESS PROJECT

    Danilo Simões; Lucas Raul Scherrer

    2014-01-01

    In practice, all management decisions involving an organization, regardless of size, have uncertainties which lead to different levels of risk. Monte Carlo simulation allows risk analysis by designing probabilistic models. From a deterministic model of economic viability indicators, commonly used for decision investment projects, it was developed a probabilistic model with Monte Carlo method simulations in order to carry out economic and financial analysis of an agroindustrial ...

  12. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Parodi Trece, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are ...

  13. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M. J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross list of model validation techniques was collected using a literature review, including sources outside the HE field. A panel then selected the most important items. Based on the Delphi method, the p...

  14. Principles and Practices for Making Statistics Relevant for Economic Decision Making

    J. Steven Landefeld

    2000-01-01

    One of the most important goals of agencies producing economic statistics is that those statistics be relevant and regularly used by public and private decision makers. Achieving this goal requires several elements including accuracy, timeliness, and sound concepts and methods. However, perhaps most important, in a world of constrained resources, it requires focusing on those statistics that are most important to decision makers in the public and private sector. And this may be the most diffi...

  15. The Decision on Commercialisation of Scientific and Technical Developments in the Economic Cluster

    Buyanova Marina Eduardovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of the strategy of national economy innovative development, the urgent problem consists in the development of the mechanism of commercialization of existing or newly emerging developments. On the basis of comparative analysis, the competency models of creation and commercialization of scientific and technological developments are presented. They include state, scientific and industrial as well as industrial and scientific models allocated by the following criteria: the initiator of an STD; the cooperation technique within the cluster. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are substantiated. The authors propose the technique of decision-making on the STD commercialization in the conditions of the cluster economic system formation taking into account the expansion of the participants’ integration at the regional market. The technique consists of a few methods and is based on the construction of a “decision tree”; it suggests a multi-level approach and provides a review of existing problems and identifying possible risks in implementing innovation activity. For evaluating the innovative projects the authors propose the matrix of criteria for a developer and for a potential manufacturer of a scientific and technological solution. These criteria may be complemented by the implementation of specific ones during the innovative development under certain conditions.

  16. Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

    Grauer, M.; A.P. Wierzbicki

    1984-01-01

    An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social probl...

  17. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Christopher eSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  18. Total Economic Value in Investment Analysis

    Sudarsono Soedomo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems are often defeated in decisions about investment and economic development.  There is a very wide gap between policy makers and development investment on the one hand and environmentalists on the other hand, who see the forest ecosystem from the perspective of ecology and environment.  The first party considers that forest ecosystems have a low value, while the second party often shows very fantastic figures about the economic value of forests. From the second party's point of view, the first party could be ignorant or having a short-term interest; while from the first party's point of view, the second party loves to produce the figures that are too good to be true.  As a result, the total economic value of ecosystems is not only ignored as a consideration in investment decisions, but the total economic value of ecosystems has been seen as a boring scientific joke.  Why did the gap occur and how to close the gap will be discussed in this paper.  Economic valuation of ecosystem needs to be done more realistically so that the results are more plausible before policy makers. On the contrary, policy makers need to be aware that once a species vanished it never goes back.Keywords: ecosystem, goods and services, value, trade-off, double counting DOI: 10.7226/jtfm.19.3.201

  19. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  20. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of gender participation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selection of crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children’s education, while females always made decision on types of food for home consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significant factors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making. Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of women involvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operative societies are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economic activities and decision making.

  1. Economic Analysis of Loudness War

    Vilím, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    This thesis determines whether the loudness war phenomenon has an effect on the success of individual songs on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. Presented theoretical part introduces this rather technical problem to economists, an insight is provided into the distribution chain of music recordings as well as into the decision-making of consumers. The key factors determining the chart position are identified following the research of existing theory and are used to create an ordinary least squares ...

  2. Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision; Effet de serre modelisation economique et decision publique

    Giraud, P.N

    2002-03-01

    As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

  3. Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.

    Wim De Neys

    Full Text Available Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making.

  4. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. PMID:26496882

  5. Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments

    Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

  6. Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  7. Economic analysis of traffic safety

    Delhaye, Eef

    2007-01-01

    In this dissertation I focus on the behaviour of people – and more particularly on the choice of speed/level of care and the number of trips they make - as 85 percent of all accidents are mainly due to road users’ error. This behaviour can be influenced by the use of different instruments such as traffic regulation, liability rules, infrastructural and technical measures, education and sensitisation. The focus of this work lies on regulation and its enforcement, liability rules and economic i...

  8. Relevant market, economic analysis and information

    Zemplinerová, Alena

    Praha: Czech Association for Competition Law, 2008, s. 28-39. ISBN 978-80-254-3276-1 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : relevant market definition * competition law * economic analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  9. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  10. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-04-25

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. PMID:24769798

  11. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  12. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  14. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  15. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  16. Aging and wisdom: age-related changes in economic and social decision making.

    Lim, Kenneth Teck Kiat; Yu, Rongjun

    2015-01-01

    World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a "phenomenon of decline" and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: (1) prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations; (2) resolving social conflicts; (3) emotional homeostasis; (4) self-reflection; (5) dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly. PMID:26150788

  17. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  18. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  19. Review of The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research

    Breese, Jack

    1988-01-01

    This review examines two important works in decision analysis: Howard and Matheson's The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, and Winterfeldt and Edwards's "Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.

  20. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  1. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  2. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  3. Measuring Economic Growth Using Data Envelopment Analysis

    Marinko Škare; Danijela Rabar

    2016-01-01

    Exploring and explaining development gaps between countries is an important theoretical and empirical task. This paper presents empirical studies related to economic growth and its determinants across countries, based on the use of data envelopment analysis method. It emphasizes the importance of this nonparametric approach to macroeconomic efficiency analysis and provides a broader and more comprehensive perspective to the researchers on this issue.

  4. Economic analysis in health care research.

    Rizk, Diaa E E

    2008-04-01

    There is contemporary widespread acceptance in the medical community of the need to address economic perspective of healthcare, specifically whether the benefits of a proposed or existing medical intervention are sufficient to justify that particular use of scarce health resources. The use of any scarce resources whether manpower, buildings or equipment has an opportunity cost in terms of the benefits foregone by denying those resources to other competing claims. Health economics emphasizes the need to assess formally the implications of choices over the deployment of resources. A number of economic evaluation techniques such as cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis have thus been developed to aid this formal assessment and to help identify the most efficient allocation of resources. The methodological quality and principles of economic analyses studies recently published in the biomedical literature, however, can be further improved. The most common limitations are in the methodology or presentation of cost, incremental analyses, sensitivity analysis and discounting. The ten methodological principles that should be incorporated in studies addressing economic analyses are highlighted. Understanding the methodology of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis is critical for biomedical researchers, editors, reviewers and readers from developing countries to accurately interpret the results of the growing body of these articles. PMID:19143119

  5. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  6. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  7. Economic Decisions by Approved Principles: Rules of Thumb as Behavioral Guidelines

    Buhr, Walter; Christiaans, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the relevance of the concept of rational behavior in economic theory and suggest, on the basis of modern brain research results, to abstain from this notion and instead to apply behavioral rules of thumb in decision-making, especially if these rules can be derived from rational problem solutions determined by individual economic agents. We give an example for our point of view which refers to a contribution by Baumol and Quandt on the pricing behavior of a monopolistic firm and whi...

  8. Decision and decision makers

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use ...

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  10. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  11. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  13. Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis

    Ericsson, Neil R.; David F. Hendry; Grayham E. Mizon

    1998-01-01

    This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A sm...

  14. Bayesian Updating in the EEG : Differentiation between Automatic and Controlled Processes of Human Economic Decision Making

    Hügelschäfer, Sabine

    2011-01-01

    Research has shown that economic decision makers often do not behave according to the prescriptions of rationality, but instead show systematic deviations from rational behavior (e.g., Starmer, 2000). One approach to explain these deviations is taking a dual-process perspective (see Evans, 2008; Sanfey & Chang, 2008; Weber & Johnson, 2009) in which a distinction is made between deliberate, resource-consuming controlled processes and fast, effortless automatic processes. In many cases, deviati...

  15. Purchasing Decision Process in the Context of the Economic Crisis in Romania

    Magdalena Platis

    2010-01-01

    In the market place, the consumer behavior has always been an attractive area for the purpose of better defining the marketing strategies and alternative options for companies. In addition, the decision-making process has been a starting point for understanding the consumer behavior and identifying the positioning and segmentation variables for the company. In the context of the contemporary international economic crisis, many changes affect the consumers. We assist to new rules in the daily ...

  16. Citation Counts and SSCI in Personnel Decisions: A Survey of Economics Departments

    Klein, Daniel B; Eric Chiang

    2004-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a survey of economics department chairs regarding the importance of citation counts in personnel decisions. The 30 responses vary, some reporting virtually no importance of citation counts, but 15 respondents report that citation counts usually or always come up in promotion cases. Fourteen respondents report that the weight given to citation counts increased over the past decade, while one reports that it declined. Fourteen expect it to increase further in t...

  17. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and cre...

  18. Linguistic Diversity and Its Impact on Economic Policies and Political Decisions

    Weber, S.; Gabszewicz, J.; Ginsburgh, V.; Savvateev, A.; Filatov, A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper addresses the issue of linguistic diversity and its impact on economic policy and political decisions. Importance of the topic is illustrated by examination of optimal sets of official languages in the European Union. It is shown that alternative estimation methods of language disenfranchisement alter the order in which the languages enter the list of the official ones. Also, we present an overview of gametheoretic models of language acquisition, where individuals weigh costs and be...

  19. Spend more today: Using behavioural economics to improve retirement expenditure decisions

    Blake, David; Boardman, Tom

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how behavioural economics can be used to improve the expenditure decisions of retirees. It identifies how accumulated assets can be used optimally throughout retirement to produce life-long income when required, to make provision for contingencies – such as unanticipated spikes in expenditure – and to optimize the size and timing of bequests. We do this using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan which employs defaults with...

  20. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  1. The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

    Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

  2. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Tobias eKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  3. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  4. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  5. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies that...

  6. Analysis Economics of Realizing Mass Customization

    WANG Jiuhe; XIA Yan; FANG Shufen

    2006-01-01

    This paper breaks through the old study pattern, emphasizing the important of economic analysis and put forward the analytic method. The paper compares mass customization to just-in-time, analyses the two facets which include production and distribution. The production facet is influence of the indirect cost, scale economy, experiences economy and dynamic alliance. The reduction of indirect cost is the innovation, which has special angle comparatively traditional economic analysis. There is gaming between satisfying customer special demand and deciding price. Mass customization emphasizes that customer must achieve to loyalty not only content without increasing extra service charge-faith in company and product. The paper sets forth the economics of scale economy and dynamic alliance to embody the extensive economy. In addition it is another innovation that this paper analyses the defects of mass customization to evaluate the economic risk. Through comparing the traditional production mode, demonstrating the implement feasibility in company. That is mass customization has less economic risk whether or not. So the analysis proposes the evidences of the way of enterprise production.

  7. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  8. Decision Analysis of Program Choices in Magnetic Fusion Energy Development

    D. Warner North; Donald N. Stengel

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology based on decision analysis for addressing major program decisions in the development of magnetic fusion energy. The development of this complex technology involves a sequence of funding choices over time among multiple technical approaches and under considerable performance uncertainty. The methodology focuses on the next major facility decision in the U.S magnetic fusion energy program. The decision alternatives include the construction and testing of a maj...

  9. Technocracy and Economic Decision-Making in Southeast Asia: An Overview

    Khoo Boo Teik

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of issues important to studying technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia. Historically the subject extends from the incorporation of non-communist states of the region into the US-molded post-World War II international order to the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. To Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, advisory and expert missions of the United States, World Bank, and other international agencies bore “state-of-the-art” economic policy-making and development planning that reserved a special, politically immunized role for technocrats. Yet, technocrats occupied a contentious position because of conflicting interests in changing conditions of underdevelopment, late industrialization, trade and investment liberalization, and financial global­ization. As such, the assessment of the relationship between technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia should consider such opposed expectations as: the claims of technocratic efficacy against claims on social equity; demands of professional efficiency against demands of public accountability; appeals to state priorities against appeals to democracy; advances of national interests against defense of vested interests; promotion of economic targets against the attainment of social objectives; and the autonomy of technocrats against their captivity to patronage.

  10. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  11. 17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Office of Economic Analysis... Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The Office of Economic Analysis is responsible for... Office also assists the Commission's enforcement effort by applying economic analysis and...

  12. 16 CFR 1000.28 - Directorate for Economic Analysis.

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Directorate for Economic Analysis. 1000.28... AND FUNCTIONS § 1000.28 Directorate for Economic Analysis. The Directorate for Economic Analysis, which is managed by the Associate Executive Director for Economic Analysis, is responsible for...

  13. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    the findings of studies that was hard to explain. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Health economic models of the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms published between 2005-2010 were included. Key characteristics......OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... have benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of...

  14. Decision analysis: dealing with uncertainty in diagnostic testing.

    Smith, R D; Slenning, B D

    2000-05-30

    Decision analysis is a process for systematically analyzing complex choices by considering all pertinent information. In this paper, we discuss how uncertainty associated with diagnostic testing can be included in a decision analysis using pay-off tables and decision trees (decision-flow diagrams). Variables associated with diagnostic test interpretation (such as pre-test and post-test probability of disease; test sensitivity, specificity and predictive values; fixed cut-offs versus continuous measurement scales; test dependence associated with the use of multiple tests) are considered. Several decision criteria and output measures are discussed (including MAXIMIN and MAXIMAX criteria, opportunity costs, expected monetary values, expected utility, sensitivity and risk-profile analysis, and threshold analysis). The application of decision analysis to diagnostic testing for Johne's disease and traumatic reticuloperitonitis of cattle, and for canine heartworm disease are used to illustrate both population- and patient-oriented applications and criteria for ranking the desirability of different outcomes. PMID:10802338

  15. Analysis of a distribution decision algorithm

    Hahn, Sung Chu

    1985-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Distributed decision problems arise whenever two or more sensors and their associated computers must work cooperatively to make a decision about a commonly observed event. Typical examples are in target detection and classification. The problem is usually characterized by a limited bandwidth of the communication link between the sensors. This thesis develops and evaluates an algorithm for distributed decision and compares it to a non-...

  16. The Economic Analysis of Criminal Law

    Joanna Shepherd; Paul H. Rubin

    2013-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the literature on the economic analysis of criminal law. First, it discusses the positive theory of criminal behavior and reviews the empirical evidence in support of the theory. Then, it discusses the normative theory of how public law enforcement should be designed to minimize the social costs of crime.

  17. The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates

    Fallis, George

    2015-01-01

    Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…

  18. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  19. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    P.J. Sebei; McCrindle, C. M. E.; Webb, E.C.

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  20. An economic analysis of fusion breeders

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  1. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  2. Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management.

    Marre, Jean-Baptiste; Thébaud, Olivier; Pascoe, Sean; Jennings, Sarah; Boncoeur, Jean; Coglan, Louisa

    2016-08-01

    Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as being useful to support ecosystem management decision-making. However, the extent to which it is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of economic valuation of ecosystem services, in support of coastal and marine management, are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across groups of decision-makers. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use economic valuation. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent's use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other studies on the usefulness and use of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also demonstrate the strength of the survey-based approach developed in this application to examine this issue in a variety of contexts. PMID:27136617

  3. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  4. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  5. Behavioral Economics and the Conduct of Benefit-Cost Analysis: Towards Principles and Standards

    Hammitt, James K.; Robinson, Lisa A.

    2010-01-01

    As traditionally conducted, benefit-cost analysis is rooted in neoclassical welfare economics, which assumes that individuals act rationally and are primarily motivated by self-interest, making decisions that maximize their own well-being. Its conduct is now evolving to reflect recent work in behavioral economics, which integrates psychological aspects of decisionmaking. We consider several implications for analyses of social programs. First, benefit-cost analysis often involves valuing nonma...

  6. Fuzzy logic approach to SWOT analysis for economics tasks and example of its computer realization

    Chernov, Vladimir; Oleksandr DOROKHOV; Liudmyla DOROKHOVA

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses the widely used classic method of analysis, forecasting and decision-making in the various economic problems, called SWOT analysis. As known, it is a qualitative comparison of multicriteria degree of Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat for different kinds of risks, forecasting the development in the markets, status and prospects of development of enterprises, regions and economic sectors, territorials etc. It can also be successfully applied to the eva...

  7. Methodological Aspects of Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis of Decision-Making Processes

    Gawlik Remigiusz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at recognizing the possibilities and perspectives of application of qualitative-quantitative research methodology in the field of economics, with a special focus on production engineering management processes. The main goal of the research is to define the methods that would extend the research apparatus of economists and managers by tools that allow the inclusion of qualitative determinants into quantitative analysis. Such approach is justified by qualitative character of many determinants of economic occurrences. At the same time quantitative approach seems to be predominant in production engineering management, although methods of transposition of qualitative decision criteria can be found in literature. Nevertheless, international economics and management could profit from a mixed methodology, incorporating both types of determinants into joint decision-making models. The research methodology consists of literature review and own analysis of applicability of mixed qualitative-quantitative methods for managerial decision-making. The expected outcome of the research is to find which methods should be applied to include qualitative-quantitative analysis into multicriteria decision-making models in the fields of economics, with a special regard to production engineering management.

  8. 76 FR 59111 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2011-09-23

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  9. 76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2011-02-22

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory...-153), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

  10. 78 FR 10599 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2013-02-14

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory...-153), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

  11. 75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2010-02-26

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  12. 77 FR 21081 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2012-04-09

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of Public Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  13. 75 FR 49890 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2010-08-16

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  14. 77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    2012-10-05

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  15. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  16. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  17. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria. PMID:26495288

  18. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer. PMID:22420272

  19. Economic Growth And Carbon Emission: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

    Ibrahim BAKIRTAS

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between carbon dioxide emission (CO2 and economic growth is one of the crucial topics in environmental economics. This study is aimed to investigatethat problem. In this study, depending on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC, the impact of income in carbon dioxide emission has measured for 34 OECD and5 BRICS countries with using Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. In this regard OECD countries are classified by income groups due to the average per capita income rate ofOECD to solve the homogeneity problem among OECD countries. On the other hand EKC hypothesis analysed by short and long run income elasticity which will be using foran evident that a country reduces CO2 emissions with the income increase in this study. According to the findings of the study, % 36 of the country sample coherent with theEKC hypothesis. The main encouragement for testing this relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission is leading politicians to reconsider the environmental impactswhich are arising from income increase when they are taking a decision to maximizes the economic growth.Keywords: EKC; OECD; Dynamic Panel Data

  20. An Economic Analysis of Ugandan Agricultural Constraints

    Komarek, Adam M.; Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z.

    2006-01-01

    Transaction costs and poor asset endowments appear to be major impediments to small scale agricultural development in Uganda. Reasons for the lack of commercialisation of agriculture, and the barriers to increasing the value of banana crop sales and banana production are the focus of this paper. Using agricultural household economics theory, an empirical analysis based on the Heckman model is unertaken. Data collected through a primary farm survey in three different regions of Uganda form the...

  1. The influence of personality on students' career decisiveness: A comparison between Chinese and German economics and management students

    Gunkel, Marjaana; Schlaegel, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Within the last decade, the relation between personality and career decisiveness has received increased attention. This study examines the country-specific influence of the Big Five personality traits on career decisiveness and its determinants, namely career related adaptability, career-related optimism, and career-related knowledge, among 406 Chinese and German economics and management students. The results show that personality traits affect career decisiveness and its determinants and tha...

  2. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  3. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  4. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  5. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  6. Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

  7. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  8. Potentialities of Economic Analysis of International Trade Law

    Orgoník, Martin

    2009-01-01

    This contribution discusses pros and cons of economic analysis of law, so called Law and Economics, in International Trade Law. The paper focuses on capacity and feasibility of conducting such analysis, briefly touches some key topics from perspective of Law and Economics (such as background economic theory, different conceptions of efficiency etc.) and tries to answer the question: Why should lawyers know something about economic analysis of law?

  9. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  10. Agriculture sector resource and environmental policy analysis: an economic and biophysical approach.

    House, R; McDowell, H; Peters, M; Heimlich, R

    1999-01-01

    Agricultural pollution of the environment is jointly determined by economic decisions driving land use, production practices, and stochastic biophysical processes associated with agricultural production, land and climate characteristics. It follows that environmental and economic statistics, traditionally collected independently of each other, offer little insight into non-point pollutant loadings. We argue that effective policy development would be facilitated by integrating environmental and economic data gathering, combined with simulation modelling linking economic and biophysical components. Integrated data collection links economics, land use, production methods and environmental loadings. An integrated economic/biophysical modelling framework facilitates policy analysis because monetary incentives to reduce pollution can be evaluated in the context of market costs and returns that influence land use and production activity. This allows prediction of environmental and economic outcomes from alternative policies to solve environmental problems. We highlight steps taken to merge economic and biophysical modelling for policy analysis within the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. An example analysis of a policy to reduce agricultural nitrogen pollution is presented, with the economic and environmental results illustrating the value of linked economic and biophysical analysis. PMID:10231835

  11. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  12. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  13. Mindfulness training increases cooperative decision making in economic exchanges: Evidence from fMRI.

    Kirk, Ulrich; Gu, Xiaosi; Sharp, Carla; Hula, Andreas; Fonagy, Peter; Montague, P Read

    2016-09-01

    Emotions have been shown to exert influences on decision making during economic exchanges. Here we investigate the underlying neural mechanisms of a training regimen which is hypothesized to promote emotional awareness, specifically mindfulness training (MT). We test the hypothesis that MT increases cooperative economic decision making using fMRI in a randomized longitudinal design involving 8weeks of either MT or active control training (CT). We find that MT results in an increased willingness to cooperate indexed by higher acceptance rates to unfair monetary offers in the Ultimatum Game. While controlling for acceptance rates of monetary offers between intervention groups, subjects in the MT and CT groups show differential brain activation patterns. Specifically, a subset of more cooperative MT subjects displays increased activation in the septal region, an area linked to social attachment, which may drive the increased willingness to express cooperative behavior in the MT cohort. Furthermore, MT resulted in attenuated activity in anterior insula compared with the CT group in response to unfair monetary offers post-training, which may suggest that MT enables greater ability to effectively regulate the anterior insula and thereby promotes social cooperation. Finally, functional connectivity analyses show a coupling between the septal region and posterior insula in the MT group, suggesting an integration of interoceptive inputs. Together, these results highlight that MT may be employed in contexts where emotional regulation is required to promote social cooperation. PMID:27266443

  14. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original

  15. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  16. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  17. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  18. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  19. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER IN TURKEY

    Filiz TUTAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the global problems since we met the phenomenon of globalization, the water has also taken its place. Economic analysis of water have become a topic of examination by many economist in recent years. Water is one of the important needs of human life. Water has an important place in respect of its role in maintaining a healty way of life. However, our country’s water resources are getting polluted day by day and the amount of water need the per capita is inceasing fast year by year due to population growth. Water quality can not be observed in Turkey and the necessarydata bank is unable to be formed. Protection of water resources and the evaluation of if in accordance with beneficial use can be only done with an integrated management mechanism. The purpose of this study is to make economic analysis of water located in natural resources. In this context the analysis of water supply and demand, the place of water in the economy, water resources and use of them in Turkey, in the World and EU, finally SWOT analysis of Turkey in terms of water resources were performed.

  20. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  1. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  2. Economic evaluation of mental health interventions: an introduction to cost-utility analysis.

    Luyten, Jeroen; Naci, Huseyin; Knapp, Martin

    2016-05-01

    Finite resources need to be allocated over an ever-increasing range of competing health policies and interventions. Economic evaluation has been developed as a methodology to inform decision makers on the efficiency of particular resource allocations. In this paper we summarize cost-utility analysis, one of the most widely-used forms of economic evaluation in healthcare. We discuss its main elements, interpretation, limitations and relevance to the domain of mental health. PMID:27075444

  3. Comparing the sustainability of U.S. electricity options through multi-criteria decision analysis

    Sustainable energy decision-making requires comparing energy options across a wide range of economic, environmental, social and technical implications. However, such comparisons based on quantitative data are currently limited at the national level. This is the first comparison of 13 currently operational renewable and non-renewable options for new US electricity generation using multi-criteria decision analysis with quantitative input values (minimum, nominal, and maximum) for 8 sustainability criteria (levelized cost of energy, life cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions, land and water use, accident-related fatalities, jobs, and annual capacity factor) and 10 representative decision-maker preference scenarios. Results across several preference scenarios indicate that biopower and geothermal (flash and binary) currently score highest in sustainability for the US. Other renewable energy technologies generally offer substantial sustainability improvements over fossil fuel or nuclear technologies, and nuclear is preferable to fossil fuels in most scenarios. The relatively low ranking of natural gas combined cycle in most preference scenarios should encourage caution in adopting NGCC as a “bridge” to renewables. Although NGCC ranks high under economic and technical preference scenarios, renewables actually rank higher in both scenarios (hydro – economic; geothermal and biopower – technical). - Highlights: • Compares 13 electricity options across 8 sustainability criteria. • Considers technical, economic, environmental, and social sustainability criteria. • Examines tradeoffs under 10 representative decision-maker preferences. • Includes policy implications for developing new electricity generation capacity in the US. • Biopower and geothermal consistently rank high across several preference scenarios

  4. Health Economic Data in Reimbursement of New Medical Technologies: Importance of the Socio-Economic Burden as a Decision-Making Criterion

    Iskrov, Georgi; Dermendzhiev, Svetlan; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

    2016-01-01

    Background: Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies. Objective: This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria. Results/Conclusions: Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation. New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

  5. Economic Evaluation of Computerized Structural Analysis

    Fortin, P. E.

    1985-01-01

    This completed effort involved a technical and economic study of the capabilities of computer programs in the area of structural analysis. The applicability of the programs to NASA projects and to other users was studied. The applications in other industries was explored including both research and development and applied areas. The costs of several alternative analysis programs were compared. A literature search covered applicable technical literature including journals, trade publications and books. In addition to the literature search, several commercial companies that have developed computerized structural analysis programs were contacted and their technical brochures reviewed. These programs include SDRC I-DEAS, MSC/NASTRAN, SCADA, SUPERSAP, NISA/DISPLAY, STAAD-III, MICAS, GTSTRUDL, and STARS. These programs were briefly reviewed as applicable to NASA projects.

  6. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  7. Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making

    Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

    2006-01-01

    Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

  8. Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy

    Patrizia Berto

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

  9. Decision making in Germany: is health economic evaluation as a supporting tool a sleeping beauty?

    Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Sandmann, Frank Gerd; Zhou, Min; Ten Thoren, Corinna; Schwalm, Anja; Weigel, Carolin; Balg, Christiane; Mensch, Alexander; Mostardt, Sarah; Seidl, Astrid; Lhachimi, Stefan K

    2014-01-01

    For many years, the legal situation within the statutory health insurance (SHI) system in Germany has allowed for health economic evaluations. There are various reasons why health economic evaluations have played virtually no role in decision making until now: to begin with, a method for the evaluation of the relation between benefits and costs which needed to be in accordance with the legal requirements had to be developed, the outcome of which was the efficiency frontier approach. Subsequent health care reforms have led to changing objectives and strategies. Currently, price negotiations of newly launched drugs are based on an early benefit assessment of dossiers submitted by pharmaceutical manufacturers. Other reasons might be the presently very comfortable financial situation of the statutory health insurance system as well as a historically grown societal fear and discomfort towards what is perceived to be a rationing of medicinal products. For the time being, it remains open how long the German health care system can afford to continue neglecting the benefits of health economic evaluations for drug and non-drug interventions, and when it will be time to wake this sleeping beauty. PMID:25444297

  10. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  11. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  12. Nuclear and non-nuclear electricity: decision-making for optimal economic performance

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power system planning - the planning cycle (load-forecasting period; uncertainty; probability and sensitivity analysis in planning); power system reliability; power system economics -alternative technologies (plant mix - nuclear power plants, fossil-fuel power plants; the 'net effective cost' method; electricity systems in developing countries); typical optimization generation computer program. (U.K.)

  13. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  14. Economic analysis of safety risks in construction

    Teresa Bourbon; Fernando Santos; Alfredo Soeiro

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study revolves around the analysis of the safety risks involved with one construction project, and the respective economic effects of risk prevention and safety management. As a result of the co-ordination of systems, and harmonising of work between the Project Leader, Safety Co-ordinator and Contractor, an adequate strategy was developed for the safety of the project Escola de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade do Minho. The risk evaluation is carried out in simulated fo...

  15. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  16. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  17. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Bates, Matthew E; Sabrina Larkin; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Igor Linkov

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to proces...

  18. Introducing Economic Evaluation as a Policy Tool in Korea: Will Decision Makers get Quality Information?: A Critical Review of Published Korean Economic Evaluations

    Kun-Sei Lee; Brouwer, Werner B.F.; Sang-Il Lee; Hye-Won Koo

    2005-01-01

    Interest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) is considering making it mandatory for pharmaceutical companies to submit the results of an economic evaluation when demanding reimbursement of new pharmaceuticals. The usefulness ...

  19. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process...... Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  20. Socio-economic Value Analysis in Geospatial and Earth Observation: A methodology review (Invited)

    Coote, A. M.; Bernknopf, R.; Smart, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many industries have long since realised that applying macro-economic analysis methodologies to assess the socio-economic value of a programme is a critical step to convincing decision makers to authorise investment. The geospatial and earth observation industry has however been slow to embrace economic analysis. There are however a growing number of studies, published in the last few years, that have applied economic principles to this domain. They have adopted a variety of different approaches, including: - Computable General Equilibrium Modelling (CGE) - Revealed preference, stated preference (Willingness to Pay surveys) - Partial Analysis - Simulations - Cost-benefit analysis (with and without risk analysis) This paper will critically review these approaches and assess their applicability to different situations and to meet multiple objectives.

  1. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  2. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-03-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group.

  3. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  4. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  5. An approach to the economic analysis of water supply projects

    Lovei, Laszlo

    1992-01-01

    Development economists are increasingly concerned about the correct approach to economic analysis of projects. By looking for a compromise between theory (which identifies ideals) and practice (which deals within the bounds of time and resource constraints), Lovei focuses on potential guidelines for economic appraisals of water supply projects. He summarizes theory and the current World Bank guidelines on the economic analysis of water supply projects; reviews the method of economic analysis ...

  6. Home behavioral economics: Childcare decisions in the United States and Norway.

    Wilson, Katharine F; Hantula, Donald A

    2016-06-01

    This research investigated how a couple decides which parent stays home as a childcare provider by attempting to determine the economic value on maternal care versus paternal care while examining the potential effects of nationality, gender role attitudes, and social support. We collected data from 240 American participants and 250 Norwegian participants who were asked to decide how much a mother needs to earn to allow her husband to stay at home to provide childcare and how much a father needs to earn to allow his wife to stay at home and provide childcare, in addition to items assessing gender role attitudes. No effect of social support was found, but Norwegians were slightly more likely than Americans to place a heavier earning burden on the husband. There were few differences in gender role attitudes by nationality. The impact of public policy and social desirability on the results and childcare decision making are discussed. PMID:26991664

  7. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  8. Introducing economic evaluation as a policy tool in Korea: Will decision makers get quality information? A critical review of published Korean economic evaluations

    K.-S. Lee (Kun-Sei); W.B.F. Brouwer (Werner); S.-I. Lee (Sang-Il); H.-W. Koo (Hye-Won)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractInterest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health In

  9. Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails. PMID:26102185

  10. Factors determining the location decisions of Spanish MNEs: an analysis based on the investment development path

    Jose I Galan; Javier Gonzalez-Benito; Jose A Zuñiga-Vincente

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of theoretical assumptions approached via the investment development path (IDP), this study examines the most important factors for and against the location decisions in foreign direct investment taken by multinational enterprises, considering host countries at very different stages of economic development (Latin American and European Union countries). We carry out different kinds of analysis on a sample of 103 firms belonging to a medium-sized country that has recently achieved ...

  11. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Daniela Cristina Solomon; Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-01-01

    Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that ...

  12. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Florin POPESCU; Cezar SCARLAT

    2015-01-01

    SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely i...

  13. Empirical analysis between industrial structure and economic growth of china

    姚西龙; 尤津; 郝鹏飞

    2008-01-01

    In recent years,the relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth is more and more concerned by scholars. According to the theory of industrial structure and economic development, this article use regression analysis method that estimates the three major industries’ contribute to Chinese economic growth and use cluster analysis methods, then discuss how to optimize the indus-trial structure.

  14. 78 FR 59648 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee Meeting

    2013-09-27

    ...Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee Act, we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting will address ways in which the national economic accounts can be presented more effectively for current economic analysis and recent statistical developments in national...

  15. Law and Technology Theory: Bringing in Some Economic Analysis

    Trosow, Samuel

    2010-01-01

    The author argues economic analysis needs to be explicitly included in an overall theory of law and technology. Differing approaches to the economics of information are considered, and the copyright policy environment of the 1990s is taken as an example of how the lack of substantive economic analysis resulted in poor policy-making.

  16. Economic analysis of the space shuttle system, volume 1

    1972-01-01

    An economic analysis of the space shuttle system is presented. The analysis is based on economic benefits, recurring costs, non-recurring costs, and ecomomic tradeoff functions. The most economic space shuttle configuration is determined on the basis of: (1) objectives of reusable space transportation system, (2) various space transportation systems considered and (3) alternative space shuttle systems.

  17. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  18. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    Highlights: ► We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ► We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ► Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ► Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ► Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  19. Modelling knowledge creation, investment decisions and economic growth in a spatial CGE setting

    Francesco Di Comite

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of knowledge is commonly understood as a key driver of economic growth. Yet, while knowledge production and economic growth have been extensively studied in isolation, few studies have tried to formalise the mechanism connecting the two elements from a spatial general equilibrium perspective. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a model of knowledge creation building upon the multiregional spatial CGE model RHOMOLO to allow for endogenous knowledge production and investment decisions at the regional level. The innovation process is modelled through the interaction between researchers, investors and final good producers. Specifically, researchers in each region use their human capital together with local R&D-embedded capital and intermediates to produce ideas, enhanced by knowledge spillovers crossing regional borders. These ideas are then purchased by local investors and combined with their human capital and intermediate goods to be turned into new R&D-embedded capital, which adds up to the existing stock after having replaced the obsolete one. Lastly, after having paid a fixed entry cost, in each region firms produce goods for final and intermediate consumption by renting local R&D-embedded and human capital and combining it with an interregional bundle of intermediate goods, their productivity being enhanced by the availability of local public goods and services. The model is designed to be calibrated using a regionalised version of standard Social Accounting Matrices, such as the ones provided by the World Input Output Database.

  20. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. PMID:27358496

  1. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  2. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  3. Rural tourism spatial distribution based on multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS

    Zhang, Hongxian; Yang, Qingsheng

    2008-10-01

    To study spatial distribution of rural tourism can provide scientific decision basis for developing rural economics. Traditional ways of tourism spatial distribution have some limitations in quantifying priority locations of tourism development on small units. They can only produce the overall tourism distribution locations and whether locations are suitable to tourism development simply while the tourism develop ranking with different decision objectives should be considered. This paper presents a way to find ranking of location of rural tourism development in spatial by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geography information system (GIS). In order to develop country economics with inconvenient transportation, undeveloped economy and better tourism resource, these locations should be firstly develop rural tourism. Based on this objective, the tourism develop priority utility of each town is calculated with MCDA and GIS. Towns which should be first develop rural tourism can be selected with higher tourism develop priority utility. The method is used to find ranking of location of rural tourism in Ningbo City successfully. The result shows that MCDA is an effective way for distribution rural tourism in spatial based on special decision objectives and rural tourism can promote economic development.

  4. Economics of the Firm and Economic Growth. An hybrid theoretical framework of analysis

    Sandra Tavares Silva; Aurora Amelia Castro Teixeira; Mário Rui Silva

    2004-01-01

    The characterization of individual firms is an essential step toward the study of the behaviour of industries and other more aggregated units of economics, and so to the analysis of economic growth processes. Hence, the main goal of this study is to achieve a critical discussion around the conceptualisation of the firm and its role in the dynamical process of economic growth. The approach to the main topic starts with the construction of a theoretical matrix of the economics of the firm, open...

  5. Evolutionary and Institutional Economic Analysis of the Scarcity Concept in Modern Economics

    Plamen Tchipev

    2006-01-01

    This is an attempt to rationalise a fundamental category of modern neoclassical economics from a critical point of view using the tools of the modern institutional and evolutionary economic analysis. The scarcity concept of economic goods has been critically analysed in an evolutionary and biological context, as well as in general social and specific market context. A possible answer regarding its specific presence in the neoclassical economics has been suggested, as well as with regard to th...

  6. Decision and decision makers

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  7. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  8. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  9. Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.

    Yoel Lubell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR 1-5%, and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%. Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58% than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%. Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%. However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models

  10. Modeling the Economics of Beach Nourishment Decisions in Response to Coastal Erosion

    Ware, M.; Ashton, A. D.; Hoagland, P.; Jin, D.; Kite-Powell, H.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

    2012-12-01

    Beaches are constantly moving and changing. The dynamic transformations of beaches are mostly the result of the erosion of sand, which can occur through movements alongshore caused by waves, movements off-shore due to storms, or submersion due to sea-level rise. Predicted climate change impacts include potential changes in storminess and accelerated sea-level rise, which will lead to increased coastal erosion. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal communities is increasing. The risks from eroding beaches (increased coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and displaced residents) are therefore increasing in number and scale; and coastal residents are taking actions to protect their homes. One such action is beach nourishment, where sand is added to a resident's property in order to widen the beach. We have developed an economic model of beach nourishment decision-making to investigate the relationship between the optimal volume and timing of beach nourishment and factors such as property value, erosion rate, and initial beach width. In this model, waterfront property owners nourish a beach when the losses in net rental income exceed the costs incurred from nourishing the beach. (Rental income is a function of property value, which in turn depends upon the width of the beach.) It is assumed that erosion and sea-level rise are related. We examine different nourishment scenarios, including one-time nourishment in the first year; constant annual nourishment; and a myopic decision process in which the homeowner nourishes the beach if property losses from erosion over the next five years are expected to exceed the cost of nourishment. One-time nourishment delays property flooding for both constant and accelerating sea level rise; however, this delay is more substantial under constant sea level rise. With continual nourishment, the beach can be maintained under constant sea-level rise, provided that the erosion rate is comparable to the additional

  11. A Multidisciplinary-economic Framework of Analysis

    Keizer, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination does human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities to satisfy them closely interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with

  12. Basic relationships for LTA economic analysis

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1975-01-01

    Operating costs based on data of actual and proposed airships for conventional lighter than air craft (LTA) are presented. An economic comparison of LTA with the B-47F is included, and possible LTA economic trends are discussed.

  13. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW

  14. Evaluating Biosurveillance System Components using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Generous, Eric Nicholas; Deshpande, Alina; Brown, Mac; Castro, Lauren; Margevicius, Kristen; Daniel, William Brent; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has traditionally been limited to the field of operations research, however many of the tools and methods developed for MCDA can also be applied to biosurveillance. Our project demonstrates the utility of MCDA for this purpose by applying it to the evaluation of data streams for use in an integrated, global biosurveillance system. Introduction The evaluation of biosurveillance system components is a complex, multi-objective decision...

  15. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Kharchenko, Volodymyr; Shmelova, Tetyana; Sikirda, Yuliya

    2011-01-01

    Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-makin...

  16. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  17. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Hosseini SA; Meimandipour A; Lotfollahian H; Aghashahi AR

    2014-01-01

    With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among t...

  18. A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.

    Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney

    1981-01-01

    To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)

  19. Applying Economic Principles to Outcomes Analysis

    Shauver, Melissa J.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. The types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized.

  20. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  1. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing

  2. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis.

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-10-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gender, age, years of education, and years driving. The groups were compared on the extent to which they discounted, or devalued, delayed hypothetical monetary rewards using a delay-discounting task. In this task, students made repeated choices between $1000 available after a delay (ranging from 1 week to 10 years) and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the students who frequently text while driving discounted delayed rewards at a greater rate than the matched control students. The study supports the conclusions that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice made by drivers, and that a behavioral economic approach may be a useful research tool for investigating the decision-making processes underlying risky behaviors. PMID:26280804

  3. Supreme Court Justices’ Economic Behaviour: A Multilevel Model Analysis

    Skiple, Jon Kåre; Grendstad, Gunnar; Shaffer, William R. ; Waltenburg, Eric N.

    2016-01-01

    Supreme Court justices are overlooked, but important, national policy-making players who render final and consequential decisions in cases on economic conflicts. The research question asks what forces explain the decisional behaviour of Supreme Court justices in economic rights cases between a private and a public party. Theoretically, the decisional behaviour of an individual justice is a function of his or her notion as to what makes ‘good’ law, pursued in a cultural-collegial setting that ...

  4. Economic analysis of motor transport service efficiency on lease

    I.V. Klymenko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In a dynamic economic environment of motor companies operation the development of organizational and methodological positions of economic analysis is required. It is economic analysis that allows us not only to determine the state of economic phenomenon, motor transport services in particular, but also to establish its cause and effect. The article suggests the methodology of economic analysis of motor transport services that includes three methodological components: 1 evaluation of the vehicle use effectiveness; 2 evaluation of transport services effectiveness; 3 evaluation of the vehicle leasing agreement effectiveness. The introduction of this technique in the studied companies revealed potential for raising efficiency.

  5. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

    Jit Mark

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1 Is an economic analysis needed? 2 Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3 If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4 If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5 How complex should the analysis be? 6 How should uncertainty be captured? 7 How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  6. The application of decision analysis techniques to remedial action planning

    As an illustration of a simple but powerful quantitative tool in geohydrology and waste management, alternatives for remedial action at a generic radioactive waste disposal facility have been evaluated using decision analysis. In addition to imposing a structured approach to alternative selection, decision analysis provides a rational basis for assessing the real value of further site investigations which might reduce uncertainties in site data, and for assessing the real value of developing and improving the performance of engineering controls or in decision analysis terminology--clairvoyance and wizardry, respectively. The quantitative interplay between site characterization, engineering, and institutional factors are examined for remediation of the same facility at two sites differing only in geohydrology. Alternatives considered include leaving in place and capping, in situ grouting, engineered barriers and removal. The following variables appear as uncertainties in the study: release, groundwater velocity, soil Kd, mean barrier life, and a wasteform factor

  7. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  8. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. PMID:23869557

  9. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  10. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  11. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  12. Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd Stocks

    Fryš, Filip

    2013-01-01

    The bachelor thesis “Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Stocks” focuses on fundamental economic analysis and its application on selected Korean company Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. The thesis is divided into two main parts, literature review and practical part. The literature review consists of principles and methods of developing the theory of fundamental economic analysis. The practical part consists of practical application of the theoretical part on the company Samsung El...

  13. A game theoretical analysis of economic sanction

    Shidiqi, khalifany ash; Pradiptyo, Rimawan

    2011-01-01

    Economic sanction has been widely used and increasingly a popular tool in maintaining peace and political stability in the world. The use of economic sanction, as opposed to the use of military power, to punish target countries have been supported by the Charter of United Nations (UN). Tsebelis (1990) modelled economic sanctions using game theory and found that any attempt to increase the severity of the sanctions was counterintuitive, namely the policy reduced the likelihood of sender countr...

  14. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  15. AN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANIE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH CAPACITY

    Camelia BURJA

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable economic growth of companies constitutes a strategic management objective as it is ofgeneral interest. The companies’ accrued net worth and their capacity to generate profit result in increasedcompetitiveness. This paper presents a general model to analyze the companies’ economic growth grounded on theinvested capital profitability that is illustrated in an adequate case study. The described model highlights the majorfactors influencing economic growth at a microeconomic level as well as the direction they act, providing thepossibility to better substantiate decisions that serve this purpose.

  16. Decision making and strategic planning for disaster preparedness with a multi-criteria-analysis decision support system

    Schlobinski, Sascha; Zuccaro, Giulio; Scholl, Martin; Meiers, Daniel; Denzer, Ralf; Guarino, Sergio; Engelbach, Wolf; Taveter, Kuldar; Frysinger, Steven

    2015-01-01

    In the context of the CRISMA FP7 project we have developed a seamless decision support concept to connect simulated crisis scenarios and aggregated performance indicators of impact scenarios with state of the art Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods. To prove the practicality of the approach we have developed a decision support tool realising the important aspects of the method. The tool is a highly interactive and user-friendly decision support system (DSS) that effectively helps ...

  17. Thermo-economic and thermodynamic analysis and optimization of a two-stage irreversible heat pump

    Highlights: • Thermodynamic modeling of a two-stage irreversible heat pump is performed. • The latter is achieved using NSGA algorithm and thermodynamic analysis. • 3 answers given by the decision-making methods selected. - Abstract: This research study mainly deals with a comprehensive thermodynamic modeling and thermo-economic optimization of an irreversible absorption heat pump. For the optimization goal, various objective functions are considered comprising the specific heating load, coefficient of performance (COP) and the thermo-economic benchmark (F). In order to specify the optimum design variables, non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied satisfying some restrictions. In this optimization study, all three objective functions (e.g. COP, F and specific heating load) are maximized. In addition, decision making is carried out using three well-suited approaches namely LINAMP and TOPSIS and FUZZY. Finally, sensitivity analysis and error analysis are conducted in order to improve understanding of the system performance

  18. THE SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES THROUGH THE REFLECTION OF VALUE INDICATORS

    Căruntu Constantin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The central objective of the article concerned showing in a synthetic manner the main economic-financial indicators in which are reflected the value indicators that characterize the activity of production and marketing. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making it appeal to more deterministic models to analyze the relationship between various indicators characterizing value production and marketing activities. Information obtained and circulated in connection with the exercise of the company's financial function takes the form of indicators, they have become an indispensable business tool for financial and performance of the decision making microeconomic default. Therefore in designing and conducting the financial microeconomic process a special emphasis is placed precisely on the indicator system, built and used for this purpose, as well as practical ways to use them, particularly targeting the control of the process. The purpose of this article is to present the main economic indicators and financial indicators in which are reflected value indicators that characterize the production and marketing activities. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators, will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making an appeal to more deterministic models, to the analysis of the relationship between various value indicators characterizing production and marketing activities. The importance of this article is that it shows how the reflection of value indicators in the economic - financial performances of the company, from which we obtain information essential to economic and financial analysis and diagnosis. In this article we have studied many indicators involved not only in the company's financial activity, but also in its economic activity that

  19. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  20. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  1. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  2. NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical field are developed by the author of this article in the 1980s during the creation of the All-Union Statistical Association. The new paradigm is compared with the old (corresponding to the middle of XX century. Is summarized monographs, textbooks and manuals prepared under the leadership of the author of this paper in the XXI century according to the new paradigm

  3. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  4. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availa...

  5. Economic analysis of aeronautical research and technology

    Gellman, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    The appropriateness of government intervention in the civilian market for aeronautics research and technology (R&T) is examined. The economic rationale for government intervention is examined. The conclusion is that the institutional role played by NASA in civilian aeronautics R&T markets is economically justified.

  6. Welfare Triangles and Economic Policy Analysis.

    James, Stephen

    1989-01-01

    Shows how the concepts of consumer's surplus and producer's surplus can be related to basic welfare economics. Provides illustrations of the ways in which these concepts can be applied in introductory economics courses. Examines the social cost of monopoly, the tax burden, free trade, tariffs, and the English Channel Tunnel. (KO)

  7. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  8. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  10. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  11. Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review

    The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

  12. Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making

    Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

    1988-01-01

    A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

  13. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  14. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  15. Analysis of the Decision Making in the Personnel Selection Process

    Navrátil, Marek; Klimusová, Helena

    Lanškroun: GOSC Group, s.r.o., 2001. s. 249. [The Tenth European Congress on Work and Organizational Psychology. 16.05.2001-19.05.2001, Praha] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7025918 Keywords : Personnel Selection Process * Judgement Analysis * Decision-making process Subject RIV: AN - Psychology

  16. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  17. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to

  18. An economic and ethical analysis of the Katrina disaster

    Robert W. McGee

    2008-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to apply economic and ethical analysis to natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina to determine which approaches to disaster relief work best and which should be abandoned. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides a combination of narrative with argument and analysis. Findings – Government involvement in disaster relief has proven to be economically inefficient and also rights-violating. Private sector initiatives and economic and political f...

  19. Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

    Héctor Salgado-Banda

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a new variable based on patent data to proxy for productive entrepreneurship. Data on self-employment is used as an alternative proxy. In particular, the paper studies the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth by using these two measures. The study considers 22 OECD countries and finds a positive relationship between the proposed measure of productive entrepreneurship — degree of innovativeness of different nations — and economic growth, while the alternative measu...

  20. ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

    Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

  1. Dimensional Analysis of Production and Utility Functions in Economics

    Kim, Minseong

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores dimensional analysis of production and utility functions in economics. As raised by Barnett, dimensional analysis is important in consistency checks of economics functions. However, unlike Barnett's dismissal of CES and Cobb-Douglas production functions, we will demonstrate that under constant return-to-scale and other assumptions, production function can indeed be justified dimensionally. And then we consider utility functions.

  2. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C;

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  3. Introducing economic evaluation as a policy tool in Korea: will decision makers get quality information? : a critical review of published Korean economic evaluations.

    Lee, Kun-Sei; Brouwer, Werner B F; Lee, Sang-Il; Koo, Hye-Won

    2005-01-01

    Interest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) is considering making it mandatory for pharmaceutical companies to submit the results of an economic evaluation when demanding reimbursement of new pharmaceuticals. The usefulness of the results of economic evaluations depends highly on the quality of the studies. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to provide a critical review of economic evaluations of healthcare technologies published in the Korean context. Our results show that many studies did not meet international standards. Study designs were suboptimal, study perspectives and types were often stated incompletely, time periods were often too short, and outcome measures were often less than ideal. In addition, some articles did not distinguish between measurement and valuation of resource use. Capital, overhead and productivity costs were often omitted. Only half of the studies performed sensitivity analyses. In order to further rationalise resource allocation in the Korean healthcare sector, the quality of the information provided through economic evaluations needs to improve. Developing clear guidelines and educating and training researchers in performing economic evaluations is necessary. PMID:15987227

  4. Integrated Approach To The Analysis Of The Quality Of Socio-Economic Regional Development Governance

    Roman Michailovich Kachalov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Prospects of the methods of the analysis and improvement of quality of governance the socio-economic systems application, based conceptual provisions of the system theory of economics, multilevel stratification of the economic space and the operational economical risk management theory are considered. For mesoeconomics, the types of system resources of the economy are defined. Also, it is analyses the influence on the quality of governance socio-economic region development the disparity of different types of system economical resources. Potential possibilities of the improvement of quality of governance due to thinner stratification of economical space and improvement the interaction parameters of the main actors of regional economic space are revealed. Leaning on the operational theory of risk management, ways of justification of administrative, strategic decisions by identification of the relevant economic risk factors and on the basis of received information development the program of anti-risk measures are offered. The methodical solutions promoting successful introduction of considered tools in practice of regional government are proposed.

  5. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  6. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  7. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTORS OF INTERNET AFFINITY

    BUBAŠ, Goran; Kliček, Božidar; Hutinski, Željko

    2001-01-01

    A recently developed model of Internet affinity was used for survey design and data collection on variables that have potential influence on affinity for Internet use. A total of 600 Croatian students with access to the Internet at their college participated in this survey. The collected data were used for investigation of the relation between decision tree analysis and regression analysis of predictor variables of Internet affinity. Different predictors were found to influence two distinct c...

  8. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

    Fuad M. Kreishan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun’s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun’s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between unemployment rate and economic growth. Results: The empirical results reveal that Okun’s law cannot be confirmed for Jordan. Thus, it can be suggested that the lack of economic growth does not explain the unemployment problem in Jordan. Conclusion: The study recommended that economic policies related to demand management would not have an important effect in reducing unemployment rate. Accordingly implementation of economic policies oriented to structural change and reform in the labor market would be more appropriate by policy makers in Jordan.

  9. Neural mechanisms underlying the impact of daylong cognitive work on economic decisions.

    Blain, Bastien; Hollard, Guillaume; Pessiglione, Mathias

    2016-06-21

    The ability to exert self-control is key to social insertion and professional success. An influential literature in psychology has developed the theory that self-control relies on a limited common resource, so that fatigue effects might carry over from one task to the next. However, the biological nature of the putative limited resource and the existence of carry-over effects have been matters of considerable controversy. Here, we targeted the activity of the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) as a common substrate for cognitive control, and we prolonged the time scale of fatigue induction by an order of magnitude. Participants performed executive control tasks known to recruit the LPFC (working memory and task-switching) over more than 6 h (an approximate workday). Fatigue effects were probed regularly by measuring impulsivity in intertemporal choices, i.e., the propensity to favor immediate rewards, which has been found to increase under LPFC inhibition. Behavioral data showed that choice impulsivity increased in a group of participants who performed hard versions of executive tasks but not in control groups who performed easy versions or enjoyed some leisure time. Functional MRI data acquired at the start, middle, and end of the day confirmed that enhancement of choice impulsivity was related to a specific decrease in the activity of an LPFC region (in the left middle frontal gyrus) that was recruited by both executive and choice tasks. Our findings demonstrate a concept of focused neural fatigue that might be naturally induced in real-life situations and have important repercussions on economic decisions. PMID:27274075

  10. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian;

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is...

  11. 卫生经济决策模型的应用%APPLICATION OF HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYTICAL MODEL

    杨淑娟; 温圆圆; 邵英; 牛谨; 杨春霞

    2011-01-01

    Health economic decision analytical model (Markov model) has been widely used in the evaluation of the costeffective. cost-benefit and cost-utility of clinical trails. In order to establish the health economic decision analytical model, we have to determine some parameters and the basic situation of diseases as follows : the Markov chain of the development states of the diseases; the intervention of clinical trail, participants and main outcomes; the initial probability, transition probability and dead probability; the health utilities and related direct cost, indirect cost and invisible cost of treating diseases; the ranges of varies to perform sensitivity analysis. The related life expectancy and cost of treatment, effective, benefit, and utility cost caculated by the parameters above. Therefore, we could establish the long-term effect of clinical trails by results of the shortterm clinical trails to provide related reference for decision makers. Also, we could predict the long-term changes of morbidity and mortality of diseases so that to provide scientific basis for formulating intervention for diseases by Markov model. Finally,the model could forecast the natural history of disease to help the research of the diseases. Markov model has an important role in the economic evaluacion of the intervention, and the estimation of morbidity of diseases.%卫生经济决策模型(马尔可夫模型)已被广泛用于对临床试验的成本-效果,成本-效益,及成本-效用中的评价.建立此模型需要确定以下的参数和疾病的基本情况:疾病的演变状态马尔可夫链;临床试验的干预措施,干预人群和干预结果;疾病的初始概率,转移概率和死亡概率;健康效用值和治疗疾病的相关直接成本,间接成本和无形成本;需要做敏感度分析各值的变化范围.通过相关参数确定建立马尔可夫模型计算出相关期望寿命年和成本,而测算出相关效果,效益和效用值,最终对短期的

  12. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Yerace, P. [Dept. of Energy, Fernald, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management; Flora, J. [West Valley Demonstration Project, NY (United States); Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D. [Environmental Management Solutions, Mason, OH (United States)

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  13. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  14. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALFALFA INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

    Ward, Clement E.; Dowdy, Alan K.; Berberet, Richard C.; Stritzke, Jimmie F.

    1990-01-01

    Integrated pest management (IMP) initially focused on insect pest control. More recently, IPM encompasses a broader concept of management, one which crosses several disciplinary boundaries. This article reports results of research dealing with four integrated management decisions for alfalfa (cultivar selection, inset control, weed control, and end-of-season harvest options.

  15. ANALYSIS ON THE ONGOING CRISIS. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MOTIVATIONS (PART 1)

    Adalberto RANGONE

    2013-01-01

    If politicians and economists who have so much lavished to “open” China to the Western Area should only had paid more attention to the historical and economic analysis brought to completion by scholars such as Carlo Maria Cipolla, Fernand Braudel, Immanuel Wallerstein and others, most likely they would have used more caution when making their decisions, and the crisis would have been strongly reduced. Hereby we intend to clear the reason for these beliefs. By a historical way of approach, we ...

  16. ANALYSIS ON THE ONGOING CRISIS. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MOTIVATIONS (PART 2)

    Adalberto RANGONE

    2013-01-01

    If politicians and economists who have so much lavished to “open” China to the Western Area should only had paid more attention to the historical and economic analysis brought to completion by scholars such as Carlo Maria Cipolla, Fernand Braudel, Immanuel Wallerstein and others, most likely they would have used more caution when making their decisions, and the crisis would have been strongly reduced. Hereby we intend to clear the reason for these beliefs. By a historical way of approach, we ...

  17. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  18. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  19. Managing wetlands: an ecological economic analysis of the Hong Kong Wetland Park

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of whether the Hong Kong government made a rational economic decision when it decided to set aside land to develop a Wetland Park,or whether it should have used the land for alternative commercial developments.Different analytical methods are used to estimate the economic value of the environmental benefits of the Wetland Park:the Value Transfer Method is used to estimate the economic value of the ecological services provided by the Park,the Direct Market Price analysis for the economic" value of the goods purchased in the Wetland Park,the Hedonic Housing Price Analysis jbr the value of the Park to those residing in its proximity,the Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Method for the value of the Park to the visitors,and the Contingent Valuation for the Passive (Nonuse) Values of the Park.These benefits are compared to the opportunity cost of the land and the cost of running the Wetland Park.The article concludes that if a rate of 5% or less is used to discount future costs and benefits,we would find that the government's decision to set aside land for a Wetland Park was economically sound,while using a discount rate of 6% or more shows that it was not.

  20. Economic analysis of non-profit organization

    Petráňová, Tereza

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis deals with an economic situation of the allowance organization Základní škola Pardubice-Dubina in the year period 2006 – 2010. The aim of the thesis is to propose possible recommendations that would improve the economic situation of the school. The theoretical part of the thesis dedicates to the concept of allowance organizations. First it defines the status of allowance organizations in the national economy, particularly in the non-profit sector. It also describes the...

  1. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

  2. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  3. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    Ioannis Trigonis; Ourania Matsouka; George Costa; George Tzetzis

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in ...

  4. Migration, education and employment: socio-cultural factors in shaping individual decisions and economic outcomes in Orkney and Shetland

    Rosie Alexander

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Migration is a common feature of island experiences, with young people especially likely to migrate to mainland communities for education and employment opportunities. Within the British island communities of Orkney and Shetland, concern about youth migration is clear. However conceptualising migration as simply an economic decision based on accessing ‘better’ opportunities elsewhere risks overlooking the significant social and cultural influence in the career and migration decisions of young people. This paper presents the results of the first stage of a research project into the experiences of higher education students from Orkney and Shetland. The project involved interviewing twenty three students about their higher education choices, and their plans for the future. The results demonstrate the importance of social and cultural influences in students’ decision making. This paper also discusses the role of the island ‘habitus’ in students’ narratives of their journeys, drawing particularly from Bourdieu’s concept of habitus.

  5. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

  6. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  7. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

  8. Decision-making for south Florida water resources: ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

    Sukop, M. C.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water, sustainability, and climate issues faced by South Florida are complex and pressing. There are multiple competing water demands, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR), and exposure to climate variability that expose the region to a unique severity and diversity of challenges. This project is investigating strategies for the optimization of water use over a 50-year time horizon. The basis for optimization is hydro-economic and seeks to incorporate the value of ecosystem services - especially fisheries and carbon dynamics - in south Florida, along with more traditional agricultural, industrial, and urban economic drivers. Behavioral aspects of water management and land use planning decision-making under different potential future scenarios are also being studied. In particular, how individuals' perceptions of risks to the water supply differ, and how these differences influence their decisions when faced with an uncertain future, such as the one faced by south Floridians due to uncertainty about sea level rise. Experiments will determine how information type and uncertainty levels impact decisions made by individuals and stakeholder groups. The results of the experiments will be used to devise more effective decision-making forums that foster more widespread support of regional water management plans.

  9. A Economic Analysis of the Akkar Plain Project

    Chard, E. Douglas

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility of the Akkar Plain Agricultural Development Project. Data were collected at representative villages throughout the Akkar Plain in Syria. The data were used to establish the economic setting at the present time on the Akkar Plain and to establish a basis for determining the economic justification for the future planned developments. Methodology used was a farm budget analysis of a before development and after development situat...

  10. Fundamental Principles of Conducting a Surgery Economic Analysis Study

    Kotsis, Sandra V.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2010-01-01

    Although economic evaluation has become more popular among medical professionals, its use in surgery is still lacking. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. The purpose of this paper, part of a tutorial series on Evidence Based Medicine, will focus on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis.

  11. Measuring economic journals’ citation efficiency: A data envelopment analysis approach

    Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos

    2011-01-01

    This paper by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and statistical inference evaluates the citation performance of 229 economic journals. The paper categorizes the journals into four main categories (A to D) based on their efficiency levels. The results are then compared to the 27 “core economic journals” as introduced by Dimond (1989). The results reveal that after more than twenty years Diamonds’ list of “core economic journals” is still valid. Finally, for the first time the paper uses da...

  12. Robbery, Economic Incentives and Deterrence: An Intercountry Analysis for 1997

    Susan S. Navarro

    2004-01-01

    Causes of crime were sought in individual's characteristics, sociological aspects and illicit drug use. Since the pioneering work of Gary Becker (1968), economists have analyzed determinants of crime from the perspective of the offender's rational decision to participate in illegal activities. Cross section data for 1997 were used in this paper to examine intercountry differences in effects of economic incentives and deterrence on robbery rates at national levels. Significant negative effects...

  13. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    P. Gnip

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  14. Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis

    Héraud, Jean - Alain; Ionescu, Oana

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly radi...

  15. Democracy Deficits, Inequality and Pollution. A Politico-Economic Analysis

    Drosdowski, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The article examines conditions, under which the degree of democratization influences environmental policy outcomes, with a given resource endowments' heterogeneity as a crucial feature of a politico-economic process. We develop an OLG model with pollution as an aggregate externality. The decisive voter, whose income can differ from the median one, chooses redistribution to finance abatement. By comparing the optimal taxation under alternative political regimes we analyze their implications f...

  16. Economic Analysis of World Bank Education Projects and Project Outcomes

    Vawda, Ayesha Yaqub; Moock, Peter; Gittinger, J. Price; Patrinos, Harry Anthony

    2003-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that World Bank education projects have a higher likelihood of being successful if at the time of appraisal, they underwent good quality economic analysis. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic…

  17. A multi-attribute decision analysis for decommissioning offshore oil and gas platforms.

    Henrion, Max; Bernstein, Brock; Swamy, Surya

    2015-10-01

    The 27 oil and gas platforms off the coast of southern California are reaching the end of their economic lives. Because their decommissioning involves large costs and potential environmental impacts, this became an issue of public controversy. As part of a larger policy analysis conducted for the State of California, we implemented a decision analysis as a software tool (PLATFORM) to clarify and evaluate decision strategies against a comprehensive set of objectives. Key options selected for in-depth analysis are complete platform removal and partial removal to 85 feet below the water line, with the remaining structure converted in place to an artificial reef to preserve the rich ecosystems supported by the platform's support structure. PLATFORM was instrumental in structuring and performing key analyses of the impacts of each option (e.g., on costs, fishery production, air emissions) and dramatically improved the team's productivity. Sensitivity analysis found that disagreement about preferences, especially about the relative importance of strict compliance with lease agreements, has much greater effects on the preferred option than does uncertainty about specific outcomes, such as decommissioning costs. It found a near-consensus of stakeholders in support of partial removal and "rigs-to-reefs" program. The project's results played a role in the decision to pass legislation enabling an expanded California "rigs-to-reefs" program that includes a mechanism for sharing cost savings between operators and the state. PMID:26415010

  18. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Carsten Murawski

    Full Text Available Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

  19. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  20. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  1. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  2. Resources and energy: an economic analysis

    Banks, F.E.

    1983-01-01

    Two long core chapters on oil and on nonfuel minerals, along with an exposition of the econometrics of primary commodities, give the reader a basic insight into the economic techniques and their uses. There are also chapters on coal, gas, and uranium, which include an overview of the Soviet energy sector and the Australian coal industry. The book introduces oil refining, petrochemicals, futures markets, inventories, capital costs, tin, stock-flow models, and other topics not usually handled in most economics text and reference books. There is also a short survey of iron and steel. The book concludes with the note that attempts to check inflation by monetary means in the presence of the kind of consumer and corporate debt that exists today is begging for catastrophe. Monetarism, like champagne, is good for pleasure, but very bad for business. 210 references, 47 figures, 41 tables.

  3. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  4. Economic analysis of spider web airline networks

    Wen-dong Yang; Jin-fu Zhu; Qiang Gao; Wen-fang Wang

    2009-01-01

    The distinct network organization, management, service and operating characteristics of US Southwest Airlines are key elements of its success compared with other airlines. As a network organization type, the spider web airline network has received more attention. In this paper, we analyzed the relation between the spider web airline network and spider web, and the structure of spider web airline network, built the assignment model of the spider web airline network,and investigated the economics concerned.

  5. An Economic Analysis of Campaign Finance

    Andrea Prat

    2000-01-01

    Electoral campaign finance is an important, and much debated, phenomenon in democracies throughout the world. This article discusses a possible economic model of campaign finance, which could be used for policy evaluation. At the core of the model lies an asymmetry of information between lobbies and voters. Lobbies know more than voters about the quality of candidates. Campaign contributions constitute an indirect way to reveal lobbies’ information to voters. However, this informational ben...

  6. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-01-01

    The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO) and multi-stage flash (MSF) cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt ...

  7. An Economic Analysis of the Protestant Reformation

    Robert B. Ekelund, Jr.; Robert F. Hebert; Robert D. Tollison

    2002-01-01

    This paper seeks to explain the initial successes and failures of Protestantism on economic grounds. It argues that the medieval Roman Catholic Church, through doctrinal manipulation, the exclusion of rivals, and various forms of price discrimination, ultimately placed members seeking the Z good "spiritual services" on the margin of defection. These monopolistic practices encouraged entry by rival firms, some of which were aligned with civil governments. The paper hypothesizes that Protestant...

  8. Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project

    The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

  9. Economic analysis of new space transportation systems: Executive summary

    1971-01-01

    An economic analysis of alternative space transportation systems is presented. Results indicate that the expendable systems represent modest investments, but the recurring costs of operation would remain high. The space shuttle and tug system requires a substantial investment, but would substantially reduce the recurring costs of operation. Economic benefits and costs of the different systems are also analyzed. Findings are summarized.

  10. Economic Analysis on Monetization of Soil Functions

    Zenglei; XI; Shaoqing; ZHANG

    2013-01-01

    On the basis of making clear diversity characteristics of soil functions and multiple characteristics of income, this paper points out that the monetization of soil functions based functional maintenance and change decision process can be regarded as a game process of different utilization methods at the background of different functions. The balance of this game process will determine monetary value of soil functions. After understanding money and monetization concepts, it introduces that measurability and exchangeability of soil functions provide objective conditions for monetization of soil functions. Finally, it discusses that usefulness value of soil functions provide basis for monetization of soil functions.

  11. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  12. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  13. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  14. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  15. Economic Reforms, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in India and South Korea: A Cointegration Analysis

    Svitlana Maksymenko; Mahbub Rabbani

    2008-01-01

    By employing a multivariate time series model, this study advances theoretical and empirical research on the role of economic reforms and human capital accumulation in the post-reform economic growth. We construct two indexes £­a human capital index and a composite economic reform index£­ and perform a cointegration analysis of a long-run equilibrium growth path in India and South Korea twelve years after the implementation of reform. The significant positive effect of human capital accumulat...

  16. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    Steven Simoens

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

  17. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  18. Joint Environmental and Economical Analysis of Wastewater Treatment Plants Control Strategies: A Benchmark Scenario Analysis

    Montse Meneses

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a joint environmental and economic analysis of different Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP control strategies is carried out. The assessment is based on the application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA as a method to evaluate the environmental impact and the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1. The BSM1 is taken as the benchmark scenario used to implement the control strategies. The Effluent Quality Index (EQI and the Overall Cost Index (OCI are two indicators provided by BSM1 and used to evaluate the plant’s performance from the effluent quality and the economic points of view, respectively. This work conducts a combined analysis and assessment of ten different control strategies defined to operate a wastewater treatment plant. This analysis includes the usual economic and performance indexes provided by BSM1 joined with the LCA analysis that determines the environmental impact linked to each one of the considered control strategies. It is shown how to get an overall evaluation of the environmental effects by using a normalized graphical representation that can be easily used to compare control strategies from the environmental impact point of view. The use of only the BSM1 indexes provides an assessment that leads to a clustering of control strategies according to the cost/quality tradeoff they show. Therefore, regarding the cost/quality tradeoff, all strategies in the same group are almost equal and do not provide an indication on how to proceed in order to select the appropriate one. It is therefore shown how the fact of adding a new, complementary, evaluation (LCA based allows either to reinforce a decision that could be taken solely on the basis of the EQI/OCI tradeoff or to select one control strategy among the others.

  19. An Economic Analysis of the Mafia

    David Maddison; Marilena Pollicino

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the current economic thinking on the Mafia phenomenon. It distinguishes the Mafia from ordinary criminal gangs by the desire of the former for the exclusive right to commit criminal acts. The existence of the Mafia in particular locations at particular times is explained by the abdication of power or by the state’s unwitting creation of illegal markets. The Mafia’s involvement in the supply of illicit goods is due to its ability to prey on common criminals, while its in...

  20. Journal interaction. A bibliometric analysis of economics journals

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2005-01-01

    Citation analysis is widely used as an evaluation method within sciences. This paper seeks to qualify citation analyses by adding insight into the sciences under investigation. The paper presents a method of citation analysis using multiple linear regressions on both cited and citing economic journals. The proposed method controls for the different characteristics of the journals as well as for their degree of interaction. The paper shows some of the hidden structures within the economic scie...

  1. Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

    Clark, Roger Nelson

    1987-01-01

    This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative maintenance costs in determining an equipment standard and e...

  2. The dynamics of economic convergence: The role of alternative investment decisions

    Jan Brůha; Jiří Podpiera

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate how various investment decisions explain the macroeconomic dynamics of European transition countries. We introduce quality investment decisions into a model with other two standard investment margins assumed in the advanced trade literature, i.e., investment in new varieties and in export eligibility. We show that the standard investment margins are not sufficient to simultaneously match the dynamics in the macroeconomic variables, especially the export performance a...

  3. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  4. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature

    Marius-Corneliu MARINAŞ

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

  5. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  6. Marginal Products of the Survey and Principles of Economics Courses: Empirical Information for Curriculum Decision Making.

    Butler, Thomas

    In order to determine the most appropriate economics prerequisites for selected courses at Thomas Nelson Community College, a study was conducted during Winter 1980 to compare the relative effectiveness of a one-quarter survey course in economics with a three-quarter principles course. The study involved the pre- and post-testing of students…

  7. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  8. Maternal serologic screening to prevent congenital toxoplasmosis: a decision-analytic economic model.

    Eileen Stillwaggon

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine a cost-minimizing option for congenital toxoplasmosis in the United States. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A decision-analytic and cost-minimization model was constructed to compare monthly maternal serological screening, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French (Paris protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate robustness of results. Universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French protocol, is found to be cost-saving, with savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection in pregnancy. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of $12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. If universal testing generates economies of scale in diagnostic tools-lowering test costs to about $2 per test-universal screening is cost-saving at rates of congenital infection well below the lowest reported rates in the United States of 1 per 10,000 live births. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities.

  9. Career Decisions from the Decider's Perspective

    Amundson, Norman E.; Borgen, William A.; Iaquinta, Maria; Butterfield, Lee D.; Koert, Emily

    2010-01-01

    The authors used a phenomenological research method to investigate the career decision-making experiences of 17 employed adults. Thematic results from interview data analysis were organized within 3 overarching themes: decisions centered on relational life, decisions centered on personal meaning, and decisions centered on economic realities. Study…

  10. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  11. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ► Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ► The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ► When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ► The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  12. Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis

    Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

    2008-01-01

    The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

  13. Forensic Economics

    Eric Zitzewitz

    2012-01-01

    A new meta-field of "forensic economics" has begun to emerge, uncovering evidence of hidden behavior in a variety of domains. Examples include teachers cheating on exams, road builders skimping on materials, violations of U.N. sanctions, unnecessary heart surgeries, and racial biases in employment decisions, traffic stops, auto retailing, and even sports judging. In each case, part of the contribution of economic analysis is in uncovering evidence of wrongdoing. Although research questions di...

  14. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  15. Integrating Cognitive Mapping Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding

    Kpoumié, Amidou; Damart, Sébastien; Tsoukiàs, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a process implying two distinctive actors (the client and the analyst) which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations, taking into account values of decision makers involved in a specific decision context. The theoretical framework of MCDA traditionally addresses problems involving a single decision maker. However, MCDA ought to investigate the case where the decision maker is made up of groups of individuals w...

  16. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  17. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  18. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  19. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

    Caillol, Marie-Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

  20. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  1. Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making

    Martina Merková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

  2. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  3. Designing economic evaluations to facilitate optimal decisions: the need to avoid bias

    Lee KM; Coyle K; Coyle D

    2016-01-01

    Karen M Lee,1,3 Kathryn Coyle,2 Doug Coyle2,31Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), Ottawa, ON, Canada; 2Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK; 3School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, CanadaGuertin et al1 argue in their article “Bias within economic evaluations” that if researchersfail to incorporate the future availability of generics entrants for new patented drugs, the i...

  4. Ecological versus Economic Objectives: A Public Decision Making Problem in Agricultural Water Management

    Zekri, Slim; Romero, Carlos

    1992-01-01

    The planning of a new in·igated area is a complex problem where a multiplicity of very different criteria (economic, ecological, social, etc.) have to be taken into account. A lexicographic goal programming model capable of handling this multiplicity is formulated. The methodology is applied to the planning of the irrigated lands of the village of Tauste in Arag6n (Spain). An important result generated by the model is the conflict between economic criteria and environmental effects such as "s...

  5. Modelling knowledge creation, investment decisions and economic growth in a spatial CGE setting

    Francesco Di Comite; Lesley Potters

    2014-01-01

    The expansion of knowledge is commonly understood as a key driver of economic growth. Yet, while knowledge production and economic growth have been extensively studied in isolation, few studies have tried to formalise the mechanism connecting the two elements from a spatial general equilibrium perspective. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a model of knowledge creation building upon the multiregional spatial CGE model RHOMOLO to allow for endogenous knowledge production and investmen...

  6. Analysis of Political Decision-Making and Its Influencing Factors

    Xing YAN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Political decision-making means a country’s political parties, leaders or leadership compare and select implementing principles and approaches and means to achieve the target in political practical activities for the purpose, principles and direction of activities. The process of political decision-making is a dynamic political process that is related to the formation and implementation of major and general decisions of the national, political and social interest groups. This process is to integrate major and general decisions regarding national and social interests. The subjects are state organs, political parties and individual decision makers or decision-making participants, and the finally formed decision is backed by the country’s coercive power with mandatory features. Meanwhile, political decision-making is influenced by system pressure. In the decision-making process, there will be a certain degree of bias between the final decision and the targeted decision.

  7. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  8. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  9. Selection of an optimal Landfill Location using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods

    Mirakovski, Dejan; Peltecki, Dragi; Despodov, Zoran; Bosev, Zoran; Panov, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    This paper identifies the components necessary to develop a decision analysis framework on issues concerning the selection of a landfill location, to facilitate the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis process and thereafter to provide guidance on the implementation of the selected multi-criteria decision analysis method within the larger context of the people, processes,and tools used in decision making.The main subject of research of this paper is the applicability of multi-crite...

  10. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

  11. STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

    Vazakidis Athanasios

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

  12. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRISON SYSTEM

    Luciana Ioana GRUIA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a short cost analysis related to the prisoners of Romania in comparison with other countries. The purpose of the article is to present the current situation of the costs and expenditures, the state is taking when imprisoning a delinquent and to draw future lines for the improvement of the prison system and Criminal Code. Data is used from online available governmental sources worldwide and is statistically worked and interpreted. The analysis is corroborated with the laws from the old and new Romanian Criminal Code and conclusions are drawn. The article presents partial results of the author’s yet not published work.

  13. Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

    Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities. PMID:26617546

  14. Genetic factors of individual differences in decision making in economic behavior: A Japanese twin study using the Allais problem

    Chizuru eShikishima

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary utility even when objective information of probabilities and rewards are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more rational. We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20–47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of rational decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  15. Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

    Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-05-01

    In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. PMID:23021947

  16. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  17. Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes

    Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

  18. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR; Gianina MIHAI

    2014-01-01

    Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions f...

  19. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  20. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...... battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so...