WorldWideScience
 
 
1

Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

2

Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, an innovative method - that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis - is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption and associated biomass production using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). This generates input for the socio-economic analysis, which aims to quantify the foregone economic w...

Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R. W. O.; Perry, C. J.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

2009-01-01

3

Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity:  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, an innovative method—that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis—is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption and associated biomass production using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). This generates input for the socio-economic analysis, which aims to quantify the foregone economic w...

Hellegers, P. J. G. J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C. J.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

2008-01-01

4

A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

Shekoufeh Nikfar

2012-01-01

5

Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

2010-07-31

6

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada); Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D. [Carleton University, Sprott School of Business, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

2006-07-01

7

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

8

A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

Michael F. Goodchild

2013-05-01

9

A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

2009-03-01

10

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lemming, Gitte; Bjerg, Poul LØgstrup

2010-01-01

11

Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

Speck, D E

2008-04-28

12

The Process of Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Projecting Economic Consequences of Design Decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

Life-cycle cost analysis deals with both present and future costs and attempts to relate the two as a basis for making decisions. This article lays the groundwork for a better understanding of the techniques of life-cycle cost analysis. (Author/MLF)

AIA Journal, 1976

1976-01-01

13

Economic modelling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

14

Advanced Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

2013-01-01

15

An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

Tainio Marko

2005-11-01

16

Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 87%. EGAT predicts that total demand will increase from about 16,126 MWe now to about 22,282 MWe in year 2006. Thailand has a diversified energy resource base, consisting of natural gas, oil, lignite, and hydropower. This paper will present the methodology to select power plant, from coal-fired, oil-fired, combined cycle, and nuclear power plants. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the power generation cost of power plant with consideration of the net present worth (NPW) and interest rate return (IRR), it shows that nuclear power plant will offer the lowest IRR, and the highest IRR is combined cycle power plant. While the NPW for the best worthwhile projects and suitable investment is imported coal-fired power plant and the runner-up is nuclear power plant at 4-6 years construction period. (author)

17

Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

None

1980-06-01

18

Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design  

Science.gov (United States)

With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

2012-12-01

19

[Contribution of economic evaluation and budget impact analysis to public decision in health: the example of breast cancer].  

Science.gov (United States)

The aim of this paper is to draw the reader's attention to the problem of dissemination of costly innovations, particularly in the field of oncology, in a context of scarce resources.Comparison of five economic aggregates related to health and the gross domestic product captures the weight of this sector in the national economy but also its cost to the community. A focus on oncology shows that during the year 2004, the cost of cancer in France, all sites being taken into account, amounted to 10.9 billion euros and the societal cost to 32 billion euros (2% of gross domestic product). The cost of breast cancer (36% of all female cancers) reached 1.5 billion euros for treatment and 3.5 billion euros for societal expenses (0.2% of gross domestic product). Due to the significant, rapid expansion of these costs (+19.2% in 2006 and 18.5% in 2007 for diagnosis-related group outliers) but also to the scarcity of resources, the development of costly innovations remains problematic. This article, based on concrete examples of breast cancer treatment, provides information on the contribution of health technology assessment (particularly cost-utility and budget impact analyses) to public decision. Economic evaluation, in particular, cost-utility assessment, allows comparison of costs and consequences (generic result usually expressed in quality-adjusted life years) in order to prioritize diagnostic and/or therapeutic strategies and to make choices based on social acceptability. Budget impact analysis, without consideration of efficacy, makes it possible to balance the financing needs arising from the adoption of a costly innovation with the paying capabilities of a given institution. PMID:20159674

Perrier, L; Philip, T

2010-03-01

20

The reliability analysis--an aid to decision-making in the economic optimization of alternative power plant systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Using the example of the moisture separator drains system for a 1300 MW nuclear power plant with PWR, this lecture will demonstrate the calculation procedure to assist decision-making (reliability/expected losses/economic viability) for alternative design concepts. A critical examination of the results establishes that owing to the inadequate quality of the reliability parameters applied for the components used, a grey zone occurs in which no statistically assured statements can be made as to the economic benefits of the one or other alternative concepts

 
 
 
 
21

An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY, the probability for cost-effectiveness of a collaborative practice would exceed 50%. At 20,000,000 KRW per QALY, which is recommended using per capita gross domestic product (GDP as the threshold, the probability would be 72.3%. Conclusions On the basis of our findings, acupuncture collaborative therapy for patients with chronic LBP may be cost-effective if the usual threshold is applied. Further empirical studies are required to overcome the limitations of uncertainties and improve the precision of the results.

Lee Taejin

2010-11-01

22

The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively. This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio.

Shepperd Sasha

2007-12-01

23

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering  

Science.gov (United States)

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Shishko, Robert

2006-01-01

24

Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior. PMID:25205006

van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

2014-07-01

25

Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

26

A comparison of economic decision making using net present value analysis versus present value ratio combined with a minimum hrdle rate  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The authors will show that using present value ratio combined with a minimum hurdle rate for economic decision making can lead to erroneous economic conclusions. Two examples are presented.

R.E.D. Woolsey

2003-12-01

27

Economic modeling for life extension decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

28

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated.

Delmar, M. V.; SØrensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

29

Stochastic decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given amount of the best score. Formulas are also derived for the probability that one concept's total score is within a given amount of a second concept's total score. These probabilistic calculations provide more realistic data entry and output information for designers, enabling designers to better determine which concepts to eliminate and which concepts to retain at the decision points of each design phase.

Lacksonen, Thomas A.

1994-01-01

30

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

Guy Hutton

2008-01-01

31

Mentalizing in economic decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

In the Ultimatum Game, participants typically reject monetary offers they consider unfair even if the alternative is to gain no money at all. In the present study, ERPs were recorded while subjects processed different offers of a proposer. In addition to clearly fair and unfair offers, mid-value offers which cannot be easily classified as fair or unfair and therefore involve more elaborate decision making were analyzed. A fast initial distinction between fair and other kinds of offers was reflected by amplitude of the feedback related negativity (FRN). Mid-value offers were associated with longer RTs, and a larger N350 amplitude. In addition, source analyses revealed a specific involvement of the superior temporal gyrus and the inferior parietal lobule during processing of mid-value offers compared to offers categorized clearly as fair or unfair, suggesting a contribution of mentalizing about the intention of the proposer to the decision making process. Taken together, the present findings support the idea that economic decisions are significantly affected by non-rational factors, trying to narrow the gap between formal theory and the real decisional behaviour. PMID:18406476

Polezzi, David; Daum, Irene; Rubaltelli, Enrico; Lotto, Lorella; Civai, Claudia; Sartori, Giuseppe; Rumiati, Rino

2008-07-19

32

Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences  

CERN Document Server

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

2013-01-01

33

Economic Decisions in Lithuania Before the Economic Crisis and during it  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The thesis examines the economic decisions in Lithuania which were taken before and during the economic crisis. It presents the theoretical treatment of fundamental economic decisions and their impact on the economy of the country, i.e. the key indicators of the economic situation in Lithuania and their development, the concept of economic crisis, its causes and consequences, as well as and the macroeconomic decisions taken before and during the economic crisis from the conceptual point of vi...

Kavanauskiene?, Audrone?; Valotkiene?, Daiva

2010-01-01

34

Tools for Decision Analysis: Analysis of Risky Decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

This site offers a decision making procedure for solving complex problems step by step. It presents the decision-analysis process for both public and private decision-making, using different decision criteria, different types of information, and information of varying quality. It describes the elements in the analysis of decision alternatives and choices, as well as the goals and objectives that guide decision-making. The key issues related to a decision-maker's preferences regarding alternatives, criteria for choice, and choice modes, together with the risk assessment tools are also presented.

35

Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies  

Science.gov (United States)

PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

2012-04-01

36

Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

2013-12-01

37

HERRAMIENTAS TEORICO CONCEPTUALES PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES EN COMITÉS DE ECONOMIA PÚBLICA / CONCEPTUAL THEORETICAL TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS COMMITTEES  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Colombia | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Este artículo es un trabajo de carácter teórico la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública. Se expondrá en primer lugar algunos conceptos básicos sobre la toma de decisiones, tales como: 1- las condiciones, 2- los factores individuales, 3- grupales y 4- las clasificaciones de las decisione [...] s, especialmente relacionadas al campo de las políticas públicas. Posteriormente, se presentarán algunos de los modelos sobre toma de decisiones relacionados con vertientes de la teoría económica y trabajos empíricos sobre la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública, tanto fiscal como monetaria, los cuales pueden servir como marco de referencia para futuras investigaciones. Abstract in english This article is a theoretical work on the topic of decision making in public economics committees. It will present a First some basics about decisions such as: 1 conditions - 2 individual factors 3 - group and 4 - classifications of particular decisions related to the field of public policy. Later i [...] n January - will be presented some models of decision making related to aspects of economic theory and 2 - empirical work on decision making in committees specifically in public economics committees both fiscal and monetary, which can serve as a framework for reference for future research.

Francisca, Salinas Esteban; Munir Andrés, Jalil Barney.

2014-04-01

38

Decision Analysis Technique  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

Hammad Dabo Baba

2014-01-01

39

Is family planning an economic decision?  

Science.gov (United States)

This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference for couples. Before the birth, the future may be vague. After the birth, life without a child becomes unimaginable. PMID:12291178

Wunderink, S R

1995-09-01

40

Decision analysis and risk management decision making: issues and methods.  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative--cost-benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method. PMID:3112872

Covello, V T

1987-06-01

 
 
 
 
41

Decision analysis and risk management decision making: issues and methods  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative-cost-benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.

Covello, V.T.

1987-06-01

42

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].  

Science.gov (United States)

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs. PMID:25272129

Soárez, Patrícia Coelho de; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

43

Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance  

CERN Document Server

Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

2002-01-01

44

Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

Farb NA

2013-01-01

45

Economic decision-making compared with an equivalent motor task  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

There is considerable evidence that human economic decision-making deviates from the predictions of expected utility theory (EUT) and that human performance conforms to EUT in many perceptual and motor decision tasks. It is possible that these results reflect a real difference in decision-making in the 2 domains but it is also possible that the observed discrepancy simply reflects typical differences in experimental design. We developed a motor task that is mathematically equivalent to choosi...

Wu, Shih-wei; Delgado, Mauricio R.; Maloney, Laurence T.

2009-01-01

46

Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability should have a very broad applicability

47

Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry  

Science.gov (United States)

High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

Johnson, Theresa L.

2012-01-01

48

Latent effects decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

Cooper, J. Arlin (Albuquerque, NM); Werner, Paul W. (Albuquerque, NM)

2004-08-24

49

Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

Ion ISTUDOR

2010-01-01

50

Decision methods in risk analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Measurement of risk in terms of the frequency and severity of events is discussed, and some attributes of risk are mentioned. Next, some of the approaches available for estimating event frequency and severity are explored. Several ideas and methods appropriate for application to decisions in reliability and risk analysis are presented. These include optimization methods, trade-off studies, statistical decision theory, sensitivity studies, breakeven studies and cost-benefit studies. Comparisons of the methods and the kind of decision problems for which each is appropriate are briefly covered. It is concluded that methods are available for treatment of the simpler engineering risk decisions, but further development and education are required for more complex problems. (orig.)

51

Initial Decision and Risk Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-29

52

ALMR deployment economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

53

Assessment of the economic consequences of investment decisions companies  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the article the features of investment decisions taking into account the existing capacity to attract a variety of sources of funding. We propose a methodological approach to assessing the impact of the capital structure of the investment project entity in financial and economic condition of the enterprise as a whole.

O.Yu. Shilova

2011-12-01

54

Recent developments in decision-analytic modelling for economic evaluation.  

Science.gov (United States)

The past few years have seen rapid changes in the methods of decision-analytic modelling of healthcare programmes for the purposes of economic evaluation. This paper focuses on four developments in modelling that have emerged over the past few years or have become more widely used. First, no one optimal method for extrapolating outcomes from clinical trials has yet been established. Modellers may draw from a set of varied assumptions about survival extrapolation that encompass a range of possibilities from highly optimistic to extremely cautious. Secondly, the practicality and appeal of microsimulation as a method for analysing healthcare decision problems has increased dramatically with the speed of computing technology. Individual instantiations of a system are generated by using a random process to draw from probability distributions a large number of times (also known as Monte Carlo or probabilistic simulation). Microsimulation is moving in new directions, such as discrete-event simulations that simulate sequences of events by drawing directly from probability distributions of event times; this approach is now being broadly applied to model situations where populations of patients interact with healthcare delivery systems. Microsimulation modelling of transmission systems at the population level is also rapidly developing. Thirdly, model calibration is emerging as a new tool that may offer health scientists a means of generating important fundamental knowledge about disease processes. Model calibration allows evidence synthesis in which observations on observable quantities are used to draw inferences about unobservable quantities. The methodology of model calibration has advanced considerably, drawing on theories of numerical analysis and mathematical programming such as gradient methods, intelligent grid search algorithms, and many more. As a fourth issue, an area of extraordinary activity is in the use of transmission models to analyse interventions for infectious diseases, including population-wide effects of vaccination. Transmission models use differential equations to simulate, deterministically for the most part, transitions among infection-related health states. Only recently have modelling methodologies been combined so that cost-effectiveness analyses can consider explicitly not only the patient-level benefits of interventions but also the secondary benefits through transmission dynamics. Advances in technology allow more realistic and complex healthcare models to be simulated more rapidly. However, decision makers will not readily accept results from models unless they can understand them intuitively and explain them to others in relatively simple terms. The challenge for the next generation of modellers is not only to harness the power available from these newly accessible methods, but also to extract from the new generation of models the insights that will have the power to influence decision makers. PMID:17067190

Weinstein, Milton C

2006-01-01

55

Economic Decisions for Others: An Exception to Loss Aversion Law  

Science.gov (United States)

In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision. PMID:24454788

Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

2014-01-01

56

Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision  

Science.gov (United States)

In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

Stabler, Thomas R.; Dinan, Frank J.

2008-01-01

57

Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

2006-12-01

58

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.  

Science.gov (United States)

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

59

Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. PMID:25105951

Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

2014-10-01

60

Economic Analysis of Transnational Education  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher…

Lien, Donald

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
61

Economic decision-making compared with an equivalent motor task.  

Science.gov (United States)

There is considerable evidence that human economic decision-making deviates from the predictions of expected utility theory (EUT) and that human performance conforms to EUT in many perceptual and motor decision tasks. It is possible that these results reflect a real difference in decision-making in the 2 domains but it is also possible that the observed discrepancy simply reflects typical differences in experimental design. We developed a motor task that is mathematically equivalent to choosing between lotteries and used it to compare how the same subject chose between classical economic lotteries and the same lotteries presented in equivalent motor form. In experiment 1, we found that subjects are more risk seeking in deciding between motor lotteries. In experiment 2, we used cumulative prospect theory to model choice and separately estimated the probability weighting functions and the value functions for each subject carrying out each task. We found no patterned differences in how subjects represented outcome value in the motor and the classical tasks. However, the probability weighting functions for motor and classical tasks were markedly and significantly different. Those for the classical task showed a typical tendency to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities, and those for the motor task showed the opposite pattern of probability distortion. This outcome also accounts for the increased risk-seeking observed in the motor tasks of experiment 1. We conclude that the same subject distorts probability, but not value, differently in making identical decisions in motor and classical form. PMID:19332799

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

2009-04-14

62

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models  

Science.gov (United States)

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2007-01-01

63

Decision analysis for boiling water reactor oxygen control  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The project has three primary phases: development of a cracking incident data base, development of a decision model incorporating probable failure rates and life-cycle economic analysis, and execution of sensitivity studies. Several sensitivity studies are planned, measuring the effects of relative degree of material sensitization and uncertainties in failure rates after oxygen control, repair and replacement costs, and economic analysis parameters. These studies are expected to highlight critical data needs and help identify high payoff areas for additional research

64

Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories  

Science.gov (United States)

Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

2005-12-01

65

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

66

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support  

Science.gov (United States)

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

67

Proposition on energy analysis and economic efficiency  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report gives some analytical results of an attempt to simultaneously optimize economic and thermodynamic efficiency. The attempt to impose complete mathematical rationality and consistency on the pricing of energy commodities fails since it is not possible to consistently weigh purely physical efficiency measures, much less social factors. This means that energy or entropy theories of value must suffer the fate of other single-factor theories, such as the labor theory of value. Such a single-factor theory cannot adequately handle such questions as fixed capital, subjective utility, and contradictory constraints on economic choice. Nevertheless, the use of both material balance and entropy analysis is valuable for evaluating nonmarket decisions, as well as identifying opportunities for process improvements. That is, economic and thermodynamic analyses are complementary in that they ask different types of questions and express the answers in noncomparable dimensions. This complementarity is a type that avers that each mode of analysis asks different questions from different perspectives. 17 references.

Hertzmark, D.I.

1979-10-01

68

Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems  

Science.gov (United States)

In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

Kitt, Robert

69

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

70

Decision analysis with approximate probabilities  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

Whalen, Thomas

1992-01-01

71

DECISION ANALYSIS IN HEALTH COVERAGE  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2000 the Organization of the United Nations established eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. The fourth objective, reducing child mortality, looks specifically for reducing two thirds of the mortality of children under five years old between 1990 and 2015. One of the specific indicators to measure progress towards this goal is the proportion of children under one year old immunized against measles.In 2001, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP estimated that over 60% of the population who lived in developing nations is far away or losing ground on achievement of the MDGs in reducing rates of infant mortality. This situation is compounded by the lack of progress in deepening the analysis of the issue, the lack of research and indicators to assess features timely coverage of care and health services.This article aims to contribute to the selection of the strategy which would improve health coverage in Misiones, using one of the tools of decision theory, the decision matrix.

Gloria Beatriz, Orzuza

2012-01-01

72

Economic analysis of remote ?-therapy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper is concerned with comparative econimic analysis of different types of orgaization of teletherapy. Considerable economic advantages of the operation of teletherapy units in 2 shifts as compared to that in one shift and a 7-day schedule as compared to a 5-day schedule were shown. Using economic reserves, one can cosiderably expand the volume of radiological service without great extra expenditures

73

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

2006-12-15

74

Multicriteria decision analysis with influence diagram / decision tree models  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A case study has been performed to determine how multiple attributes as risk and cost criteria can be used for comparing severe accident management strategies for nuclear power plants. A mixed influence diagram/decision tree modelling technique has been used to model the strategies, combining the benefits of both separate techniques. It is concluded that multiple attributes like individual risk, group risk and strategy implementation costs can be addressed. A full-scope multicriteria decision analysis has been performed. (orig.)

75

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

76

NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

Steinberg, A.

1972-01-01

77

Risk analysis as a decision tool  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

78

Life extension economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

79

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

80

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context.

Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S. [Centre of Human Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, 40 Bd du Pont-d' Arve, CH-1211 Geneva (Switzerland); Baranzini, A. [Geneva School of Business Administration, University of Applied Sciences of Western Switzerland, Geneva (Switzerland); Germond-Duret, C. [Graduate Institute of International Relations, University of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland); Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A. [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland); Rafaj, P. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIAS, Laxenburg (Austria)

2006-11-15

 
 
 
 
81

An analysis of medical decision making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

82

Economic optimization of decisions with respect to dairy cow health management.  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The research described in this thesis was directed towards decision support in dairy cow health management. Attention was focused on clinical mastitis, in many countries considered to be the most important dairy health problem. First a statistical analysis was carried out to obtain biological and economic parameters with respect to clinical mastitis which fitted in the state space definition of the stochastic dynamic programming model. This optimization model was based on the hierarchic Marko...

Houben, E. H. P.

1995-01-01

83

Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

Oscarson, Nils

2006-01-01

84

Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

2011-11-15

85

Analysis of Investment Decision by Nigerian Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available

Decisions taken by Pension Fund Administrators whether to invest in a particular asset class or not depend upon relative importance of different factors. The relative importance of these factors and the interactions among decisions taken by PFAs has remained unknown to the contributors. Therefore, this study is designed to examine factors affecting investment decision in PFAs. This research work examined the factors that influence investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs. The study also evaluated investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs based on both qualitative and quantitative factors.
Primary data were used for this research, which were generated through the use of questionnaire. Simple random sampling technique was used to select respondents from five PFAs in Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using factor analysis.
The result of the study indicates that three factors were considered by PFA managers when making investment decisions: Economic, Risk and Security of real estate factors. The study concluded that National Pension Commission should be a bit flexible in its regulatory restriction of investment areas of PFAs to enhance a better investment decision making process. The study therefore, recommended that PFAs should use reward structure to ensure accountability of those that are in charge of investment decision making.

Key words: Investment; Decision making; Pension Fund Administrator; Factor analysis; National pension commission

Emmanuel TSADO

2011-12-01

86

Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

Seidel, Jonathan

2010-01-01

87

Techno-Economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

1997-12-31

88

Economic decision making of renewable power producers under uncertainty  

Science.gov (United States)

The recent booming development of renewable power generation and government subsidies are constantly under scrutiny and various opinions exist regarding whether subsidies should be continued or not. Motivated by the controversies and debates, this dissertation attempted to address the investment decision making problem under uncertainties in the renewable power industry from the perspective of an individual power producer. Given that independent power producers still dominate the renewable power production and that majority of their output are sold through long-term power purchase agreements, this study focused on two types of uncertainties that could represent most of their kinds: the operations & maintenance (O&M) cost and governmental subsidy's renewal/expiration. Three types of investment activities that covers the major part of any renewable power plant's economic life are thoroughly investigated in a chronological order: an initial entry, exit when the plant reaches its economic life, and repowering. A real-options approach was adopted and improved to model the value of a power plant considering its future activities, while both cost and policy changes modeled as some stochastic processes. Significant policy implications and managerial insights were obtained as a result of extensive analytical modeling and statistical study of empirical evidence.

Lou, Chenlu

89

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA).

James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

1995-11-01

90

An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

91

A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In this paper we aim to develop a multidimensional decision-making model that would be more effective debt management to reduce them.

Riana Iren RADU

2011-11-01

92

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary  

Science.gov (United States)

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

Macomber, H. L.

93

??????????????? An Empirical Analysis of Evaluating Region Outward Economic  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available ???????????????(DEA???????????????DEA?“??”??????????????DEA?“??”?????????????????????30??????????????????????????????????Taking the original data of evaluation index for “input” of DEA and taking the order in the single sorted list of corresponding index for “output” of DEA, a linear programming model is provided to multi-index comprehensive evaluation and decision making analysis in the paper. The paper analysis and evaluates the Outward economic trade of 30 regions in whole nations. It is useful to the health development of region outward economic.

??

2011-07-01

94

Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD  

...Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Extreme volatility during the global financial crisis complicated economic forecasting, leading ... Economic crisis ; forecasting ; projections Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD Français Follow us E-mail Alerts Blogs OECD Home About ...outlook, analysis and forecasts › Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts Economic outlook,...to foster green growth Economic crisis provides lessons for new approaches to forecasting, says OECD Send Print Tweet   11/02/2014 - ...

95

Bayesian Decision Analysis for Recurrent Cervical Cancer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Risk modeling for recurrent cervical cancer requires the development of new concepts and methodologies. Unlike most daily decisions, many medical decision making have substantial consequences, and involve important uncertainties and trade-offs. The uncertainties may be about the accuracy of available diagnostic tests, the natural history of the cervical cancer, the effects of treatment in a patient or the effects of an intervention in a group or population as a whole. With such complex decisions, it can be difficult to comprehend all options “in our heads”. This study applied Bayesian decision analysis to an inferential problem of recurrent cervical cancer in survival analysis. A formulation is considered where individual was expected to experience repeated events, along with concomitant variables. In addition, the sampling distribution of the observations is modelled through a proportional intensity Nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The proposed decision models can provide decision support techniques not only for taking action in the light of all available relevant information, but also for minimizing expected loss. The decision process is useful in selecting the best alternative when a patient with recurrent cervical cancer, in particular, the proposed decision process can provide more realistic solutions.

Chi-Chang Chang

2014-05-01

96

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

97

Economic analysis: A basic primer  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Medical knowledge is advancing at an incredible rate. This rapid increase in the fundamental understanding of disease states has led to some important breakthroughs in care over the past ten years and will undoubtedly lead to untold more. At the same time that we are being presented with more options for diagnosis and treatment, governments around the world are fighting to reduce deficit spending and inflation. As a direct result of this combination of reduced spending and increased options for care, medical professionals are being asked to provide more effective care more efficiently. The randomized control trial may be the best way to determine the effectiveness of different options, however, only a full economic analysis can help decide which option is more efficient. This paper is intended to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the methods used to perform a full economic analysis.

Doig G

2003-01-01

98

Economic Analysis of Insurance Fraud  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

We survey recent developments in the economic analysis of insurance fraud. The paper first sets out the two main approaches to insurance fraud that have been developped in the literature, namely the costly state verification and the costly state falsification. Under costly state verification, the insurer can verify claims at some cost. Claims' verification may be deterministic or random, and it can be conditioned on fraud signals perceived by insurers. Under costly state falsification, the po...

Picard, Pierre

2012-01-01

99

Energy-Systems Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Energy Systems Economic Analysis (ESEA) program is flexible analytical tool for rank ordering of alternative energy systems. Basic ESEA approach derives an estimate of those costs incurred as result of purchasing, installing and operating an energy system. These costs, suitably aggregated into yearly costs over lifetime of system, are divided by expected yearly energy output to determine busbar energy costs. ESEA, developed in 1979, is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution.

Doane, J.; Slonski, M. L.; Borden, C. S.

1982-01-01

100

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. ...

Pires, Ana Lu?cia Lourenc?o

2010-01-01

 
 
 
 
101

Multicriteria decision analysis for nuclear technology assessments  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The paper presents the nuclear services of BELGATOM, an architect and consulting engineering company, in particular the use of decision tools for further studies on the introduction of advanced nuclear technologies. These decision tools are based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and its purpose is to assist the decision makers in either selecting ''good'' solutions or in ranking alternatives in presence of several decision criteria. This MCDA can be applied in any field such as personnel management, site selection, R and D, capital budgeting, energy management etc. BELGATOM has also developed its own tools called STRANGE (Strategy for Nuclear Generation of Electricity) for solving the strategic problems such as fuel cycle optimizations, reactor deployment etc. (author). 2 figs

102

Decision making, risk assessment, and uncertainty analysis in environmental management  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Environmental management involves making decisions that will lead to the solution of environmental restoration and waste management (ER/WM) problems. Not only are ER/WM problems technologically challenging, but they must be dealt with under politically and emotionally charged conditions. Furthermore, these decisions must be made based on less than certain information. Therefore, environmental managers must consider the sources of uncertainty that will impact the results of the decision-making process, treat them in an explicit manner, and assess their impact on the decision. Consequently, the process must be a defensible, objective, and transparent one; otherwise the foundation for solving ER/WM problems will not be sufficiently solid to survive the criticisms that such solutions are likely to be subjected to. The use of risk assessment and decision analysis tools helps the environmental manager achieve this goal. It is also important that these decisions consider the array of risk-related issues associated with ER/WM problems, which include the risk to the health and safety of the public as well as other risks such as economic risk. The solution of ER/WM problems must obtain and maintain a proper balance between all these issues. It is also crucial that the multiple stakeholders having an interest in the solution of ER/WM problems be involved in the decision-making process

103

Analysis of Decision-making Support Systems  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the term «decision-making support system» from the perspective of different researchers. A number of advantages and disadvantages of each system was detected and author's vision of the issue was offered. In addition, the analysis and systematization of the decision-making support systems (DSS classification was made. Considerable attention was attached to the hierarchy of decision-making support systems, its elements and functional relations between them. The results enable the author to build the model of DSS hierarchy.

Olena M. Derykot

2013-01-01

104

Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ?50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

105

Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

1994-06-01

106

Decision-problem state analysis methodology  

Science.gov (United States)

A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

107

Using decision analysis in physical protection planning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

108

A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning  

Science.gov (United States)

This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs) for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE) method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI). The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD), and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD) and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

2008-10-01

109

A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

E. S. Chung

2008-10-01

110

Economic modelling to optimize dairy heifer management decisions  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The objective of heifer rearing within a dairy farm is to produce high quality dairy replacements at low costs. Heifer management decisions interact with the biological aspects of growth, thereby influencing the future profitability of the heifer. To maximize profitability farmers need to be aware of the potential impacts of these management decisions. However, this is a field of research that received only little attention. The objective of the research described in this thesis was to obtain...

Mourits, M. C. M.

2000-01-01

111

Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

2013-01-01

112

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

113

An economic analysis methodology for evaluating highway improvement projects  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Economic analysis is an important component for the decision-making involved in highway projects. However, the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) lacks a uniform and comprehensive methodology or model to evaluate highway improvement projects. This research project seeks to fill that gap. The preferred methodology is called life-cycle benefit cost analysis. The two key parts in the proposed model, Indiana Life-Cycle Benefit Cost Model (ILCBCM), are agency costs and user benefits. Age...

Zhao, Guangyuan

2012-01-01

114

Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia  

Science.gov (United States)

Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

Brennan, Donna

2010-08-01

115

The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.

Hutton Guy

2011-06-01

116

The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

Izotov Viktor

2013-06-01

117

Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

118

[Economic evaluation and rationale for human health risk management decisions].  

Science.gov (United States)

The priority task of human health maintenance and improvement is risk management using the new economic concepts based on the assessment of potential and real human risks from exposure to poor environmental factors and on the estimation of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness ratios. The application of economic tools to manage a human risk makes it possible to assess various measures both as a whole and their individual priority areas, to rank different scenarios in terms of their effectiveness, to estimate costs per unit of risk reduction and benefit increase (damage decrease). PMID:21845769

Fokin, S G; Bobkova, T E

2011-01-01

119

Solar economic analysis: an alternative approach  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conventional economic analysis which utilizes the discounted present value criterion is examined from a critical perspective. It is found that this technique has a number of limiting characteristics which contribute to the lack of general usage of economic analysis for evaluating passive solar installations. Within this context an alternative approach is suggested for determining the economic desirability of such investments. This latter method, compound future worth analysis, is found to be both more understandable and flexible.

Thayer, M.A.; Brunton, D.; Noll, S.A.

1979-01-01

120

Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

Baicoianu, A.

2010-12-01

 
 
 
 
121

Economic analysis of production bottlenecks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

Lawrence Stephen R.

1995-01-01

122

Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

123

Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

124

Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

2012-03-01

125

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about...

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok

2010-01-01

126

Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD  

...OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem This note discusses OECD forecast performance over the period 2007 12. ...on the lessons that can be learned from cross-country differences in growth forecast errors and the changes to forecasting models and procedures that have ... Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD Français Follow us E-mail Alerts Blogs OECD Home About Countries Topics Statistics Newsroom OECD Home › ...Economics Department › Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts › OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem Economic outlook, analysis ...

127

Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

Exley Catherine E

2011-05-01

128

On Economic Analysis of International Law  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)


The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic) in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from ...

Zhang, Nai-gen

2006-01-01

129

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)  

Science.gov (United States)

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

130

Health economic analysis of screening  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified. Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

Krauth, Christian

2008-01-01

131

The economic costs of court decisions concerning dismissals in Japan: Identification by judge transfers  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The goal of this paper is to detect the degree to which court decisions control the stringency of employment protection and to investigate how such judicial discretion affects labor market performance. However, identification difficulty arises because court decisions are volatile against economic and social conditions. This paper overcomes the endogeneity problem by exploiting the triennial judge transfer system in Japan, or the exogenous allocation of judges to prefectures. A key finding is ...

Okudaira, Hiroko

2009-01-01

132

Economic aspects in landscape decision-making: a participatory planning tool based on a representative approach  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

In this paper, we develop a method for spatial decision support that combines economic efficiency â¿¿ measured by the concept op willingness to pay â¿¿ with a participatory planning tool, that allows for an active collaboration among the actors involved, in such a way that decision makers can draw on the outcomes in their spatial planning and design process. The method is called RITAM, a Dutch acronym for spatially explicit, participatory and interdisciplinary trade-off meth...

Heide, C. M.; Blaeij, A. T.; Heijman, W. J. M.

2008-01-01

133

Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

ChristopherSummerfield

2012-05-01

134

Cost-of-illness analysis. What room in health economics?  

Science.gov (United States)

Cost-of-illness (COI) was the first economic evaluation technique used in the health field. The principal aim was to measure the economic burden of illness to society. Its usefulness as a decision-making tool has however been questioned since its inception. The main criticism came from welfare economists who rejected COIs because they were not grounded in welfare economics theory. Other attacks related to the use of the human capital approach (HCA) to evaluate morbidity and mortality costs since it was said that the HCA had nothing to do with the value people attach to their lives. Finally, objections were made that COI could not be of any help to decision makers and that other forms of economic evaluation (e.g. cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis) would be much more useful to those taking decisions and ranking priorities. Conversely, it is here suggested that COI can be a good economic tool to inform decision makers if it is considered from another perspective. COI is a descriptive study that can provide information to support the political process as well as the management functions at different levels of the healthcare organisations. To do that, the design of the study must be innovative, capable of measuring the true cost to society; to estimate the main cost components and their incidence over total costs; to envisage the different subjects who bear the costs; to identify the actual clinical management of illness; and to explain cost variability. In order to reach these goals, COI need to be designed as observational bottom-up studies. PMID:16139925

Tarricone, Rosanna

2006-06-01

135

Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance) and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude) markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making. PMID:22096522

De Neys, Wim; Novitskiy, Nikolay; Geeraerts, Leen; Ramautar, Jennifer; Wagemans, Johan

2011-01-01

136

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

137

Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

138

Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD  

...OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem This note discusses OECD forecast performance over the period 2007 12. ...on the lessons that can be learned from cross-country differences in growth forecast errors and the changes to forecasting models and procedures that have ... Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts - OECD Français Follow us E-mail Alerts Blogs OECD Home About Countries Topics Statistics Newsroom OECD Home › ...Economy › Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts › OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem Economic outlook, analysis and ...

139

Heartbeat and Economic Decisions: Observing Mental Stress among Proposers and Responders in the Ultimatum Bargaining Game.  

Science.gov (United States)

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum. PMID:25247817

Dulleck, Uwe; Schaffner, Markus; Torgler, Benno

2014-01-01

140

Heartbeat and Economic Decisions: Observing Mental Stress among Proposers and Responders in the Ultimatum Bargaining Game  

Science.gov (United States)

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum. PMID:25247817

Dulleck, Uwe; Schaffner, Markus; Torgler, Benno

2014-01-01

 
 
 
 
141

Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

TobiasBrosch

2013-07-01

142

Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value.  

Science.gov (United States)

VALUE PLAYS A CENTRAL ROLE IN PRACTICALLY EVERY ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE THAT REQUIRES A DECISION: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making. PMID:23898252

Brosch, Tobias; Sander, David

2013-01-01

143

ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept  

Science.gov (United States)

The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

2006-01-01

144

Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

Adrian ZUGRAVU

2009-01-01

145

Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice  

Science.gov (United States)

Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE) is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients. PMID:25378915

Courtney, Maureen Reni; Spivey, Christy; Daniel, Kathy M

2014-01-01

146

Lakes tsa socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Three harvest forecasts from the Lakes TSA Timber Supply Analysis report are examined in this socio-economic assessment. They represent possible harvest flow patterns given current land base and forest management practices in the Lakes TSA. The forecasts were chosen to illustrate a range of social, environmental, and economic implications associated with different harvest levels. It presents a profile of the area, the timber supply situation, the scenario one impact analysis, alternative scenarios, and a summary.

NONE

1995-12-01

147

INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to giving a direction and inspiration of the quantization of intuitive decision-making, based on the systematic analysis of the existing domestic and international theory of intuitive decision-making.
Key words: Intuitive decision-making, Thinking in images, The evaluation model

Cheng-lin MIAO

2007-01-01

148

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

149

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

150

Economic analysis of nuclear reactors  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

151

16 CFR 1000.28 - Directorate for Economic Analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

...2010-01-01 false Directorate for Economic Analysis. 1000.28 Section 1000.28 Commercial...FUNCTIONS § 1000.28 Directorate for Economic Analysis. The Directorate for Economic Analysis, which is managed by the Associate...

2010-01-01

152

Building Bridges between Perceptual and Economic Decision-Making: Neural and Computational Mechanisms.  

Science.gov (United States)

Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision-making (PDM) is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate, and categorize noisy sensory information. Economic decision-making (EDM) explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the sub-fields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both tasks, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus) with value information (what is it worth). We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions - the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) - to perceptual and EDM, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasized the role of the striatum and OFC in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorization of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move toward a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates. PMID:22654730

Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

2012-01-01

153

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

154

Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process. Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced laying the foundation with different case examples ranging from road, rail to air transport projects. Two major concerns in building the assessment model, CBA-DK, are to bring informed decision support to the decision-makers and to specify relevant probability distribution functions to feed into the Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific decision task. ADG depicts the decision-makers risk aversion towards a specific assessment task, i.e. by illustrating probabilities of an infeasible socio-economic rate of return. To perform informed decision support as proposed by ADG it is necessary to determine a set of suitable probability distributions. This selection process has been conducted among others by literature studies, conference and seminar attendances and substantial amount of tests within CBA-DK. Currently, the model is made up by five different distributions furtherdivided into two groups of non-parametric and parametric functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects.

Salling, Kim Bang

2008-01-01

155

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in economic analysis. A detailed economic analysis is presented in a subsequent article. PMID:23066736

Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

2014-06-01

156

Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Environmental awareness and the recent environmental policies have forced many electric utilities to restructure their practices to account for their emission impacts. One way to accomplish this is by reformulating the traditional economic dispatch problem such that emission effects are included in the mathematical model. The economic/environmental dispatch problem is a multi-objective non-linear optimization problem with constraints. This study presents a hybrid approach to solve the combined economic-emission dispatch problem (CEED). In the first stage, a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) is employed to approximate the set of Pareto solution through an evolutionary optimization process. In the subsequent stage, a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach is adopted to rank these solutions from best to worst and to determinate the best solution in a deterministic environment with a single decision maker. This hybrid approach is tested on a six-unit system to illustrate the analysis process in present analysis. Pareto frontiers are obtained and the ranking of Pareto solutions is based on entropy weight and TOPSIS method. Results obtained show that the hybrid approach has a great potential in handling multi-objective optimization problem. (author)

Xuebin, Li [Research and Development Center, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430064 (China)

2009-05-15

157

On Economic Analysis of International Law  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available
The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

Nai-gen ZHANG

2006-06-01

158

Radiation vulcanization of polymer film - economical analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The first stage results are presented for the development of SKEP - based insulation film radiational vulcanization with the use of a powerful electron accelerator. To estimate direct economic effects of the new technology, the dose of 150 Kjoule/kg (15 Mrad) and the radiation energy utilization factor of 0.6 have been taken. The preliminary economic analysis on replacing the existing technology for production of the rubber film by the radiational vulcanization technology has indicated a possibility in principle of such a replacement with a positive economic effect

159

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The topics to be addressed in this study include the mid and long-term strategic plan of KAERI, international panel review on KAERI, Human Resources Development specialized in nuclear field, economic feasibility studies on the several development projects including SMART, new research reactor and Sodium Fast Reactor. The existing R and D plans of KAERI as well as the related national programs, were reviewed and reflected to the plan. As the first step, the long-term R and D goals were identified, allowing for unique characteristics of nuclear R and D requiring long term investment. Secondly, five mid-term strategic goals were derived from the long term goals. Thirdly, many research projects to achieve the derived goals were identified, and then, 14 R and D projects were selected from the identified projects based on the criterion of the size of potential market. Finally, five strategic R and D projects with high priority were chosen based on the criterion of the existing research capacities. The value of acquisition of a design certificate of SMART was estimated to be in the range of 201.7?320.1 billion won far exceeding 170 billion won the total budget for it. The study suggests the probable selling prices of SMART ranging from 91 Won/kWh to 134 Won/kWh in case KHNP takes initiative the construction of SMART. As a result of the project, GHG reduction potential in 2020 was estimated to be 44 million ton in electric power generation, 1 million ton in oil refinery sector, 16 million ton in residential sector, 12 million ton in commercial sector and 22 million ton in transportation sector

160

Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes  

Science.gov (United States)

A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

Schaefer, B.

1974-01-01

 
 
 
 
161

Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

162

How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: financial literacy and retirement readiness  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers’ efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced fin...

Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2010-01-01

163

Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.  

Science.gov (United States)

Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

2012-02-01

164

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.  

Science.gov (United States)

Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

2011-01-01

165

Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

TobiasKalenscher

2011-06-01

166

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

167

Soo TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The British Columbia Forest Service is now conducting a timber supply review to examine the amount of timber available for harvesting in timber supply areas (TSAs). This report is one of four reports prepared for each area. The assessment examines the impacts of three harvest forecasts based on the timber supply analysis using a multiple accounts analysis that focuses attention on a range of values derived from the forest resource. The implications of the harvest forecasts are evaluated in terms of economic development, community, and First Nations concerns at the TSA level and economic development, environment, and government revenue impacts at the provincial level.

NONE

1994-12-31

168

Economic analysis of nuclear energy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

169

Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE`s record of decision)  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of {approximately}50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios.

Reid, R.L.; Miller, J.W.

1997-04-01

170

Economic impact analysis: a theoretical approach.  

Science.gov (United States)

Where the traditional focus of local planning has been on access to health services, recent legislation and policy reflect an equally prominent concern for costs. Appropriate methodologies for collection and analysis of financial and economic data have been lacking. A particularly difficult problem, both theoretically and practically, is the economic impact of a capital investment by one provider on the rest of the local service system. In order to focus the attention of health service planners, economists and others on this issue, a preliminary theory of "economic impact analysis" is outlined here. Scope of concern and conditions of application ("ripple" and "spigot" models) are defined. Existing analytical tools are reviewed, and related philosophical issues raised. PMID:10242750

Johns, L

1977-01-01

171

An Analysis of Ethanol Investment Decisions in Thailand  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the decision to invest in building ethanol plants in Thailand. We analyze the effects of economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies on ethanol investment using discrete response and fixed effects regression models. Results show that the main factor that affects the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat is the number of ethanol plants already in the changwat. The number of ethanol plants already in the changwat has a significant negative effect on the decision to invest in building an ethanol plant in a particular changwat, which suggests that potential investors are deterred by local competition in input and output markets.

Nisal Herath Mudiyanselage

2013-08-01

172

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NO...

173

ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE  

Science.gov (United States)

The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NO...

174

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING  

Science.gov (United States)

Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

175

Economical Analysis about Ammonia Absorption Refrigeration Plants  

Science.gov (United States)

NH3-H2O absorption refrigeration plant is attractive from each standpoint of electric power saving, non-fluorocarbon and energy saving. The plant can be the economic alternative of power compression refrigeration for evaporation temperature range from 0°C to -60°C, using suitable waste heat (co-generation system, waste incinerator), oil and natural gas. In the application of the plant, the equipment cost and the COP must be reasonable from economical standpoint. Therefore, the paper shows the following. 1) Necessary heating temparature analysis for absorption plant 2) Equipment cost analysis for heating temperature 3) Equipment cost analysis for COP 4) Number of trays in the rectifying column for COP 5) Equipment cost analysis and COP in two-stage absorption

Takei, Toshitaka

176

Use of classical criterions of a decision making for choice of measures on decrease of economic damage from nuclear and radiation accidents  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Application of classical criteria of decision making for choice of measures on the decrease of economic damage from possible nuclear and radiation accidents during spent fuel unloading from nuclear submarines and storage in the process of their utilization was demonstrated. Economic damage was chosen as optimization index, three versions of possible accidents and limited number of measures on the decrease of their effect were treated for illustration of the suggested approach. On the base of analysis of classical criteria the optimal strategy for decrease of economic damage was chosen

177

Arrow TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report presents a profile and description of the local economy and the physical and community setting within the Arrow Forest District; and an assessment of the socio-economic and environmental implications related to the range of forecast harvest levels specified in the timber supply analysis. A number of qualitative and quantitative impacts precipitated by the forecast harvest levels for the Arrow TSA were evaluated using a multiple accounts analysis approach.

NONE

1994-12-31

178

Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria....

Ayoola

2012-01-01

179

Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites  

CERN Document Server

In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

2013-01-01

180

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc.

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

 
 
 
 
181

Morice TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Morice Timber Supply Area (TSA) occupies nearly 1.5 million hectares in central interior British Columbia. This report first presents a profile of the TSA, including environmental setting, demographics, employment, communities, forest industry activity, other local industries such as tourism, agriculture, and mining, and First Nations. It then describes the timber supply status in the TSA, including the harvesting land base and annual allowable cut, and reviews the economic, environmental, community, and First Nations impacts in the TSA and the province resulting from three timber harvest scenarios. The appendix includes a description of the economic impact analysis methodology used.

NONE

1996-07-01

182

Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users to apply evidence-based medicine to make informed decisions when confronted with difficult clinical scenarios. A decision tree depicts potential alternatives and outcomes involved with a given decision. Probabilities and utilities are used to quantify the various options and help determine the best course of action. Sensitivity analysis allows users to explore the uncertainty of data on expected clinical outcomes. The decision maker can thereafter establish a preferred method of treatment and explore variables which influence the final clinical outcome. The present paper reviews the technique of decision analysis with particular focus on its application to clinical decision making.Keywords: decision analysis, patient preference, game theory, evidence-based medicine

Ilyas S Aleem

2008-12-01

183

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

184

Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

185

Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

186

Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory  

CERN Document Server

Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

Harp, Dylan R

2011-01-01

187

Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.  

Science.gov (United States)

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer. PMID:22420272

Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

2012-02-01

188

Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold

Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

2011-06-01

189

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk  

Science.gov (United States)

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

190

A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size under stochastic demand  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL size in manufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic review production-inventory system under stochastic demand. Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces an optimal lot sizing policy, as well as the corresponding total production and inventory costs.

PK Mubiru

2010-06-01

191

Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias / Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Colombia | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos [...] empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales. Abstract in english Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construct [...] ion of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

Ludy A, Parada-Vargas; Alejandra, Taborda-Restrepo.

2011-04-01

192

Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias / Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Colombia | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos [...] empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales. Abstract in english Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construct [...] ion of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

Ludy A, Parada-Vargas; Alejandra, Taborda-Restrepo.

193

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.  

Science.gov (United States)

Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present. PMID:23703936

Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

2013-10-01

194

Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis  

CERN Document Server

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents r

Ehrgott, Matthias; Greco, Salvatore

2010-01-01

195

An economic analysis of communal goat production.  

Science.gov (United States)

The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians. PMID:15214690

Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

2004-03-01

196

An economic analysis of communal goat production  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians.

E.C. Webb

2012-06-01

197

An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

198

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MANUFACTURING PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This thesis deals with economic analysis of manufacturing photovoltaic modules. Photovoltaic modules production presents a certain expense and load for the environment, despite the fact that solar modules produce electric energy in an environmentally friendly way. Therefore the goal of this thesis is to determine solar modules investment payback period. That is why we performed calculations based on solar modules manufacturing costs and electric energy purchase prices. To conclude, the paybac...

Pantaler, Nus?a

2014-01-01

199

Thermodynamic and economic analysis of CHP system  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Combined heat and power generation (CHP) from the same fuel source enhance energy utilization efficiency, improves energy supply reliability and provides greater protection to environment. The present paper discusses various factors that should be considered for developing a cogeneration plant and describes a simple methodology for its thermodynamic and economic analysis. A comparison between the connection and cogeneration plants shows considerable amount of saving with an attractive pay-back period. (author)

200

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical.

Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

2009-02-01

 
 
 
 
201

Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making  

Science.gov (United States)

Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

2006-01-01

202

Application of grey relational analysis to agricultural management decision-making  

Science.gov (United States)

Agricultural production has always been a matter of national politics and the important topic of the economy. Economic and social development of any country in the world must be built on agricultural labor productivity highly developed, so the development decision-making of agriculture is very important. In agricultural management decision-making, due to the uncertainty of the selection of evaluation indicators and its weight, the extent and scope of sustainable use and so on, it caused the individual to evaluate a number of useful information is often missing, thus affecting the reliability and accuracy of evaluation results. In this paper, the grey relational analysis is introduced to use to agricultural management decision-making. The result indicated that this method is credible, and can provide a new method and a possible new way for agricultural managers in decision-making.

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Sun, Jiang-bo; Wang, Fang

2009-07-01

203

Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

2010-09-01

204

Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

2011-12-01

205

Seismic risk analysis and decisions for nuclear power plants  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seismic risk analysis and associated sensitivity studies constitute a part of the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program being conducted by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Although seismic risks are an important contributor to the total nuclear risk, the occurence of earthquake-related seismic phenomena is low. Safety decisions involving seismic hazards must be made, however. This paper briefly described several categories of decisions that can be made using seismic risk analysis. While risk analysis does not provide all the information required for these decisions, it is a useful tool in that it provides additional information for the decision-making process. We anticipate a growing interest in the use of seismic risk analysis in nuclear safety evaluations. (orig.)

206

Economic evaluation as a decision-making tool in health care  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available For the assessment of the health care system efficiency result-oriented indicators should be exploited much more actively as without specific indicators oriented to the evaluation of the patient’s health outcomes it is impossible to acquire reasonable evidence for the effectiveness of the functioning of the health care system that has the decisive role for further decisions in the age of the evidence-based medicine. The main groups of the treatment results’ indicators are clinical, economic and patient-reported outcomes (PROs, and all these groups of outcomes should be considered to make the most objective economic evaluation. This research has been determined to investigate applying of PROs as a relatively new tool in evaluation of the health care in Latvia. The results of the scientific publications review show that the positive trend in using of the PROs in Latvia is observed, but the involvement of patients in treatment’ process assessment is not enough active yet. The relevant problems and possible suggestions for improvement of this process are discussed in the article.

Araja D.

2012-10-01

207

Health and environmental risk governance in the french context. The role of scientific expertise and economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

conclusion presents various recommendations as regards the role of scientific expertise, the use of economic analysis and the decision-making process in risk assessment and management. The conclusion particularly emphasises key aspects of the decision-making process such as: the necessity of contextualizing risk assessment, the taking into account of scientific uncertainties and the need for stakeholders' involvement. (authors)

208

Resting-state functional connectivity predicts impulsivity in economic decision-making.  

Science.gov (United States)

Increasing neuroimaging evidence suggests an association between impulsive decision-making behavior and task-related brain activity. However, the relationship between impulsivity in decision-making and resting-state brain activity remains unknown. To address this issue, we used functional MRI to record brain activity from human adults during a resting state and during a delay discounting task (DDT) that requires choosing between an immediate smaller reward and a larger delayed reward. In experiment I, we identified four DDT-related brain networks. The money network (the striatum, posterior cingulate cortex, etc.) and the time network (the medial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices, etc.) were associated with the valuation process; the frontoparietal network and the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex-anterior insular cortex network were related to the choice process. Moreover, we found that the resting-state functional connectivity of the brain regions in these networks was significantly correlated with participants' discounting rate, a behavioral index of impulsivity during the DDT. In experiment II, we tested an independent group of subjects and demonstrated that this resting-state functional connectivity was able to predict individuals' discounting rates. Together, these findings suggest that resting-state functional organization of the human brain may be a biomarker of impulsivity and can predict economic decision-making behavior. PMID:23486959

Li, Nan; Ma, Ning; Liu, Ying; He, Xiao-Song; Sun, De-Lin; Fu, Xian-Ming; Zhang, Xiaochu; Han, Shihui; Zhang, Da-Ren

2013-03-13

209

Consistency management in multiple perspective medical decision analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

Multiple perspective reasoning is often involved in real-world decision analysis. Different perspectives may be suitable for different stages of the decision modeling process. Multiple perspective modeling calls for consistency management which ensures that the different perspectives reflect the same information. This paper summarizes the graphical perspectives currently supported in DynaMoL, a new framework for dynamic decision analysis. We introduce a new perspective, the tree view, into the framework. We present the main ideas involved in consistency management in the framework. We also discuss the critical issues involved in multiple perspective modeling of a simplified case study in medicine. PMID:10384507

Zheng, J; Leong, T Y

1998-01-01

210

A decision analysis of the commercial demonstration fast reactor  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has expressed the view that Britain should shortly commence construction of a Commercial Demonstration Fast Reactor (CDFR) to come into operation around the year 2000. We analyse whether such a decision, to build a CDFR now, is economically optimal. A linear programme of the electricity supply system of the CEGB is used to calculate the improvement in total discounted system costs until 2040 arising from the decision. Uncertainty is incorporated through employing subjective probability distributions for the description of the key inputs. Partial rank correlation coefficients measure the sensitivity of the solution to uncertainty in each of the inputs. (author)

211

Using multiple criteria decision analysis for supporting decisions of solid waste management.  

Science.gov (United States)

Design of solid-waste management systems requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because the systems can have complex and conflicting impacts on different stakeholders. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been found to be a fruitful approach to solve this design problem. In this paper, the MCDA approach is applied to solve the landfill selection problem in Regina of Saskatchewan Canada. The systematic approach of MCDA helps decision makers select the most preferable decision and provides the basis of a decision support system. The techniques that are used in this study include: 1) Simple Weighted Addition method, 2) Weighted Product method, 3) TOPSIS, 4) cooperative game theory, and 5) ELECTRE. The results generated with these methods are compared and ranked so that the most preferable solution is identified. PMID:12090287

Cheng, Steven; Chan, Christine W; Huang, Guo H

2002-01-01

212

Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly appropriate for an estimate on the costs of energy given the various technologies. Levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC) and levelized generation cost (LGC) have offered effective indicators for economic comparison among nuclear fuel cycles and were adopted to compare the fuel cycle options considered in this study. The unpredictable change of the unit costs of several key components due to the uncertainties can lead to considerable differences in levelized costs among the fuel cycle alternatives. To take these unavoidable uncertainties into account, a wide scale was applied to each unit cost and a distribution of levelized cost was also obtained

Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2012-05-15

213

Environmental and economic assessment methods for waste management decision-support: possibilities and limitations.  

Science.gov (United States)

A large number of methods and approaches that can be used for supporting waste management decisions at different levels in society have been developed. In this paper an overview of methods is provided and preliminary guidelines for the choice of methods are presented. The methods introduced include: Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Life-cycle Costing, Risk Assessment, Material Flow Accounting, Substance Flow Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Entropy Analysis, Environmental Management Systems, and Environmental Auditing. The characteristics used are the types of impacts included, the objects under study and whether the method is procedural or analytical. The different methods can be described as systems analysis methods. Waste management systems thinking is receiving increasing attention. This is, for example, evidenced by the suggested thematic strategy on waste by the European Commission where life-cycle analysis and life-cycle thinking get prominent positions. Indeed, life-cycle analyses have been shown to provide policy-relevant and consistent results. However, it is also clear that the studies will always be open to criticism since they are simplifications of reality and include uncertainties. This is something all systems analysis methods have in common. Assumptions can be challenged and it may be difficult to generalize from case studies to policies. This suggests that if decisions are going to be made, they are likely to be made on a less than perfect basis. PMID:17612327

Finnveden, Göran; Björklund, Anna; Moberg, Asa; Ekvall, Tomas

2007-06-01

214

Sunshine coast TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Sunshine Coast Timber Supply Area covers 1.12 million hectares in the Vancouver Forest Region. This document is one of the technical papers prepared for the Area`s timber supply review, and offers information on timber supply alternatives and their socio-economic implications. The document first profiles the Area, including its environmental setting, population, labor force, communities, forest sector and other local industry, and First Nations. It then reviews the current status of timber supplies in the Area, including the current forest management guidelines and allowable annual cut, and describes timber harvest forecasts under three scenarios. The final sections of the document analyze the socio-economic impacts on the Area, its First Nations, and the province of the timber harvest under the three scenarios. Appendices include a glossary and descriptions of the impact analysis methodologies.

NONE

1995-12-31

215

Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

216

Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

217

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Volodymyr Kharchenko

2011-03-01

218

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes  

Science.gov (United States)

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.

Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

219

Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

2012-08-01

220

Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

Patrizia Berto

2008-06-01

 
 
 
 
221

THE INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENS IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMICAL CRISIS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The economical and financial crisis that broke out in the United States of America and that rapidly extended at international level, has affected, in the context of a globalized world, both solid economies from the Centre and Western Europe and the more fragile economies that are still in transition from the space of South?Eastern Europe and especially the Western Balkans. The lack of an effective involvement of the citizens from the Balkans in the decision making process at local and central level has represented, for the last 20 years, one of the important causes that allowed the level of the reforms carried out in this state to be an incipient one. As a consequence, in the present time, against some alarming economical realities and some economical indicators that show an increase of the number of unemployed people, it becomes necessary to have a drastic reduction of foreign investments or an increase of the public debt level as a percentage from the domestic gross productand an involvement of the citizens and of the specialists from various areas in the drafting and the implementation of public policies.

Adrian?Lucian Kanovici

2013-02-01

222

Measuring Preferences for Cost-Utility Analysis: How Choice of Method May Influence Decision-Making  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Preferences for health are required when the economic value of health care interventions are assessed within the framework of cost-utility analysis. The objective of this paper is to review alternative methods for preference measurement and to evaluate the extent to which method may affect health care decision making. Two broad approaches to preference measurement that provide societal health state values are considered: 1) direct measurement and 2) preference-based health state classificatio...

Mcdonough, Christine M.; Tosteson, Anna N. A.

2007-01-01

223

17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.  

Science.gov (United States)

...2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Office of Economic Analysis. 200.23a Section 200.23a Commodity...General Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The Office of Economic Analysis is responsible for providing an...

2010-04-01

224

Nuclear and non-nuclear electricity: decision-making for optimal economic performance  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power system planning - the planning cycle (load-forecasting period; uncertainty; probability and sensitivity analysis in planning); power system reliability; power system economics -alternative technologies (plant mix - nuclear power plants, fossil-fuel power plants; the 'net effective cost' method; electricity systems in developing countries); typical optimization generation computer program. (U.K.)

225

Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas / Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstraçõ [...] es financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for manag [...] ers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

Paulo Roberto de, Sant' anna; Orlando Celso, Longo; Francisco Marcelo, Barone; Carlos José Guimarães, Cova; Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de, Oliveira.

226

Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstrações financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão.This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for managers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

Paulo Roberto de Sant'anna

2011-10-01

227

Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas / Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstraçõ [...] es financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for manag [...] ers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

Paulo Roberto de, Sant' anna; Orlando Celso, Longo; Francisco Marcelo, Barone; Carlos José Guimarães, Cova; Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de, Oliveira.

1589-16-01

228

Economic Evaluation of Computerized Structural Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

This completed effort involved a technical and economic study of the capabilities of computer programs in the area of structural analysis. The applicability of the programs to NASA projects and to other users was studied. The applications in other industries was explored including both research and development and applied areas. The costs of several alternative analysis programs were compared. A literature search covered applicable technical literature including journals, trade publications and books. In addition to the literature search, several commercial companies that have developed computerized structural analysis programs were contacted and their technical brochures reviewed. These programs include SDRC I-DEAS, MSC/NASTRAN, SCADA, SUPERSAP, NISA/DISPLAY, STAAD-III, MICAS, GTSTRUDL, and STARS. These programs were briefly reviewed as applicable to NASA projects.

Fortin, P. E.

1985-01-01

229

Economic analysis of hydride fueled BWR  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The economic implications of designing BWR cores with hydride fuels instead of conventional oxide fuels are analyzed. The economic analysis methodology adopted is based on the lifetime levelized cost of electricity (COE). Bracketing values (1970 and 3010 $/kWe) are used for the overnight construction costs and for the power scaling factors (0.4 and 0.8) that correlate between a change in the capital cost to a change in the power level. It is concluded that a newly constructed BWR reactor could substantially benefit from the use of 10 x 10 hydride fuel bundles instead of 10 x 10 oxide fuel bundles design presently in use. The cost saving would depend on the core pressure drop constraint that can be implemented in newly constructed BWRs - it is between 2% and 3% for a core pressure drop constraint as of the reference BWR, between 9% and 15% for a 50% higher core pressure drop, and between 12% and 21% higher for close to 100% core pressure. The attainable cost reduction was found insensitive to the specific construction cost but strongly dependent on the power scaling factor. The cost advantage of hydride fuelled cores as compared to that of the oxide reference core depends only weakly on the uranium and SWU prices, on the 'per volume base' fabrication cost of hydride fuels, and on the discount rate used. To be economically competitive, the uranium enrichment required for the hydride fuelled core needs to be around 10%.

230

Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

1997-02-01

231

Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

232

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

233

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

2000-03-01

234

Decision and decision makers  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

Anuta Porutiu

2010-12-01

235

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

236

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

237

75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)  

Science.gov (United States)

...CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System...version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System...in these causal analyses, NCEA developed CADDIS, a web-based decision support system...

2010-09-24

238

75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)  

Science.gov (United States)

...the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System...release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System...in these causal analyses, NCEA developed...is a web-based decision support system...

2010-06-22

239

Social information and personal interests modulate neural activity during economic decision-making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In the present study we employed electrophysiological recordings to investigate the levels of processing at which positive and negative descriptions of other people bias social decision-making in a game in which participants accepted or rejected economic offers. Besides social information, we manipulated the fairness of the assets distribution, whether they were advantageous or not for the participant and the uncertainty of the game context. Results show that a negative description of the interaction partner enhanced the medial frontal negativity (MFN in an additive manner with fairness evaluations. Such description of the partner interacted with personal benefit considerations, showing that this positive or negative information only biased the evaluation of offers when they did not favor the participant. P300 amplitudes were enhanced by advantageous offers, suggesting their heightened motivational significance at later stages of processing. Throughout all stages, neural activity was enhanced with certainty about the personal assignments of the split. These results provide new evidence on the importance of interpersonal information and considerations of self-interests relative to others in decision-making situations.

AnnaMoser

2014-02-01

240

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

 
 
 
 
241

Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis

Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

2014-01-01

242

Law and Technology Theory: Bringing in Some Economic Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

The author argues economic analysis needs to be explicitly included in an overall theory of law and technology. Differing approaches to the economics of information are considered, and the copyright policy environment of the 1990s is taken as an example of how the lack of substantive economic analysis resulted in poor policy-making.

Trosow, Samuel

2010-01-01

243

Rule-based analysis of pilot decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

The application of the rule identification technique to the analysis of human performance data is proposed. The relation between the language and identifiable consistencies is discussed. The advantages of production system models for the description of complex human behavior are studied. The use of a Monte Carlo significance testing procedure to assure the validity of the rule identification is examined. An example of the rule-based analysis of Palmer's (1983) data is presented.

Lewis, C. M.

1985-01-01

244

Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

245

Modelling knowledge creation, investment decisions and economic growth in a spatial CGE setting  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The expansion of knowledge is commonly understood as a key driver of economic growth. Yet, while knowledge production and economic growth have been extensively studied in isolation, few studies have tried to formalise the mechanism connecting the two elements from a spatial general equilibrium perspective. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a model of knowledge creation building upon the multiregional spatial CGE model RHOMOLO to allow for endogenous knowledge production and investment decisions at the regional level. The innovation process is modelled through the interaction between researchers, investors and final good producers. Specifically, researchers in each region use their human capital together with local R&D-embedded capital and intermediates to produce ideas, enhanced by knowledge spillovers crossing regional borders. These ideas are then purchased by local investors and combined with their human capital and intermediate goods to be turned into new R&D-embedded capital, which adds up to the existing stock after having replaced the obsolete one. Lastly, after having paid a fixed entry cost, in each region firms produce goods for final and intermediate consumption by renting local R&D-embedded and human capital and combining it with an interregional bundle of intermediate goods, their productivity being enhanced by the availability of local public goods and services. The model is designed to be calibrated using a regionalised version of standard Social Accounting Matrices, such as the ones provided by the World Input Output Database.

Francesco Di Comite

2014-10-01

246

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.  

Science.gov (United States)

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. PMID:24772997

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

247

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links  

Science.gov (United States)

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

2013-01-01

248

Restoration of seagrasses with economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The technique of restoration of populations of land plants is an old one that is well understood by scientists, agronomists, forestry experts, and the general public. However, only recently has attention been turned to restoring underwater areas with so-called seagrasses. From 1947 onwards, attempts have been made to restore suitable marine areas by using important species; however, only very recently (from August 1973) have large-scale restoration projects been undertaken. The efforts that have been made to replant various seagrass species by different techniques are reviewed, but only two seagrasses, Zostera noltii and Thalassia testudinum, have been restored on a large scale. Both of these can be restored successfully; however, the seeding method of Thalassia appears to be the most practical operation of all, and the most potentially valuable for future research into large-scale restoration, as it allows flexibility of location and of depth of transplantation, and involves the minimum of damage to the donor site. It also ensures the most rapid regrowth, besides being in the long run the most economical method yet devised of restoring a seagrass community. An economic model and analysis for restoration costs are given and finally a wide range of uses of restoration of such beds of seagrasses are enumerated.

Thorhaug, A. (Univ. of Miami, FL); Austin, C.B.

1976-01-01

249

Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment. 4 refs., 1 fig

250

Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

Ghassan F. Issa

2009-01-01

251

An Economic Analysis of Capital Flight from Nigeria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Available estimates of capital flight from Nigeria have several important limitations. This study takes cognizance of these limitations in estimating and subsequent analysis of trends of capital flight flows in Nigeria for the periods 1970 -2004 using the residual method of estimation, including necessary adjustments to account for the influence of trade faking and exchange rates movements. The study further seeks to verify if capital flight is indeed an important concern to economic management in Nigeria by exploring various economic issues that existing body of theoretical and empirical literature had linked to capital flight. For most of the periods, capital flight estimates had positive sign, indicating that residents consistently took capital out of Nigeria. The study further documented that trade faking is an important means through which capital flight is effected in Nigeria, with evidences that confirmed the existence of financial revolving door relationship between capital flight and external indebtedness in Nigeria. The study emphasized the need for decisive policies to strengthen macroeconomic management and macro-organizational fundamentals. A rather flexible trade and exchange regimes that result in a lowering down of tariff duties, and a more market determined exchange rates, are likely to wipe out the incentives for fabrication of traded values of exports and imports.

Taiwo Olubanjo Ajilore

2010-10-01

252

Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

2008-11-28

253

Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

254

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

T. P. Karjalainen

2013-07-01

255

Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

256

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

257

Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

258

Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

2013-07-01

259

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions  

Science.gov (United States)

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

260

California solar energy study: decision-analysis panel report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In order to investigate motivations behind an individual's decision to purchase or not to purchase a solar energy system for a home, the California Energy Commission initiated a comprehensive survey program to analyze, in some depth, attitudes toward solar energy use. As part of that program, the CEC contracted for a series of panels comprised of homogenous groups of individuals who were not solar adopters, to probe for underlying attitudes about solar and, through the group dynamics process, elicit information which generally cannot be obtained using a standard questionnaire. The results shed additional light on consumer perceptions about the energy situation, the solar industry, economics, government's role and acceptance of the technology which, in turn, affect the individual's decision to adopt or not to adopt a solar energy device.

Margolin, J.B.; Misch, M.R.

1979-09-01

 
 
 
 
261

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

262

Hierarchical neural networks for autonomous data analysis and decision making  

Science.gov (United States)

A neural network based data analysis and decision making system to increase the autonomy of a planetary rover or similar exploratory vehicle is presented. A hierarchical series of neural networks for real time analysis of scientific images is used. The system under development emphasizes analysis of multispectral images by classifier and feature detector neural networks, to provide information on the mineral composition of a scene. A hierarchy of alternating analysis and decision making networks is being developed to allow increasingly fine scale analysis in regions of the image that are potentially important. It is noted that this system will facilitate both the selection of high priorty scientific information for transmission to earth, and the autonomous collection of rocks and soil for sample return.

Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

1988-01-01

263

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task  

Science.gov (United States)

Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

O'Brien, Megan K.

2014-01-01

264

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

Megan K. O’Brien

2014-07-01

265

Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task.  

Science.gov (United States)

Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat. PMID:25083345

O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

2014-01-01

266

Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing F = e3.760348 x Q0.571771 x V0.425999 x eu. That is, for the marketing force, Output elasticity of marketing flow and flow rate were determined as 0.571771 and 0.425999.

Yang Dong-Hong

2013-01-01

267

Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

Belbase, Shashidhar

2011-01-01

268

Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

269

Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as wealysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to forego reusing recoverable nuclear fuel, and thus reprocessing, in the long run

270

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

271

Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks  

CERN Document Server

The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

2004-01-01

272

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

273

An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and ...

Chinnammai, S.

2013-01-01

274

Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

Woelbert E

2013-03-01

275

How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

Koçak, Özgecan; Özcan, Serden

2013-01-01

276

Correlation Analysis Between Scientific and Technological Progress and Economic Development  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

There exists an interdependence between scientific and technological progress and economic development. The development of science and technology brings along economic development, meanwhile economic development offers powerful support for it. Based on statistical analysis of the relationship between Sci-Tech investment and economic growth in recent decade, this article explores the dependencies between them, and gives us a measurement model. The result suggests that local Sci-Tech i...

Li, Chengju

2012-01-01

277

A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

278

Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

279

A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.  

Science.gov (United States)

To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks. PMID:20821675

Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

2010-01-01

280

Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

 
 
 
 
281

Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

SvenjaSimon

2012-04-01

282

The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

R?ta Simanavi?ien?

2011-08-01

283

Economic analysis of aeronautical research and technology  

Science.gov (United States)

The appropriateness of government intervention in the civilian market for aeronautics research and technology (R&T) is examined. The economic rationale for government intervention is examined. The conclusion is that the institutional role played by NASA in civilian aeronautics R&T markets is economically justified.

Gellman, A. J.

1982-01-01

284

Modelos de decisão para avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde / Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese A maioria das avaliações econômicas que participam dos processos de decisão de incorporação e financiamento de tecnologias dos sistemas de saúde utiliza modelos de decisão para avaliar os custos e benefícios das estratégias comparadas. Apesar do grande número de avaliações econômicas conduzidas no B [...] rasil, há necessidade de aprofundamento metodológico sobre os tipos de modelos de decisão e sua aplicabilidade no nosso meio. O objetivo desta revisão de literatura é contribuir para o conhecimento e o uso de modelos de decisão nos contextos nacionais das avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde. Este artigo apresenta definições gerais sobre modelos e preocupações com o seu uso; descreve os principais modelos: árvore de decisão, Markov, microssimulação, simulação de eventos discretos e dinâmicos; discute os elementos envolvidos na escolha do modelo; e exemplifica os modelos abordados com estudos de avaliação econômica nacionais de tecnologias preventivas e de programas de saúde, diagnósticas e terapêuticas. Abstract in english Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a [...] pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Patrícia Coelho de, Soárez; Marta Oliveira, Soares; Hillegonda Maria Dutilh, Novaes.

285

Modelos de decisão para avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde / Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Public Health | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese A maioria das avaliações econômicas que participam dos processos de decisão de incorporação e financiamento de tecnologias dos sistemas de saúde utiliza modelos de decisão para avaliar os custos e benefícios das estratégias comparadas. Apesar do grande número de avaliações econômicas conduzidas no B [...] rasil, há necessidade de aprofundamento metodológico sobre os tipos de modelos de decisão e sua aplicabilidade no nosso meio. O objetivo desta revisão de literatura é contribuir para o conhecimento e o uso de modelos de decisão nos contextos nacionais das avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde. Este artigo apresenta definições gerais sobre modelos e preocupações com o seu uso; descreve os principais modelos: árvore de decisão, Markov, microssimulação, simulação de eventos discretos e dinâmicos; discute os elementos envolvidos na escolha do modelo; e exemplifica os modelos abordados com estudos de avaliação econômica nacionais de tecnologias preventivas e de programas de saúde, diagnósticas e terapêuticas. Abstract in english Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a [...] pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Patrícia Coelho de, Soárez; Marta Oliveira, Soares; Hillegonda Maria Dutilh, Novaes.

286

Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume I. A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Multiattribute decision analysis is a methodology for providing information to a decision maker for comparing and selecting between complex alternatives. A brief introduction to the principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis is presented. The concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and the decision alternatives are presented. 50 references.

Feinberg, A.; Miles, R.F. Jr.

1978-06-01

287

Using decision analysis to structure an ecological risk assessment  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

To expedite and streamline the performance of an ecological risk assessment on lead-impacted sediments in the Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri, a phased scope of work was developed based on decision analysis procedures and specific decision criteria. The risk assessment included three phases consistent with the USEPA ecological risk assessment framework: (1) Problem Formulation; (2) Exposure and Effects Assessment; and (3) Risk Characterization. The need for and extent of each subsequent phase is dependent upon the results and conclusions of the previous phase. For example, if significant differences in lead concentrations in fish tissues are determined to exist between the study area and reference area samples for any of the species sampled, then the potential risks to piscivorous birds would be evaluated. If no significant differences in lead concentration in fish tissues between no further assessment of risk would be conducted. A similar progression of decision points was incorporated in the evaluation of water quality, and sediment and pore water toxicity to aquatic organisms. This presentation describes the decision analysis approach and the practical advantages in communicating the risk assessment process, and in data interpretation, as well as sampling and assessment cost savings.

Lee, K.H.; Sheehan, P.J.; Tull, J.D.; Dombrowski, F.J. [McLaren/Hart, Alameda, CA (United States). ChemRisk Division

1994-12-31

288

Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ecision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor design with respect to a LOCA in light of acceptance criteria. What is the intent of the acceptance criteria? The LOCA is a design basis accident. That is, in principle, the reactor incurs a failure (such as a pipe break) that results in a loss of coolant; all other reactor systems operate as designed. The question is whether the reactor system as designed precludes fuel cladding failure, and, thereby, prevents a release of radiation. The decision rule with regard to cladding failure (and, thereby, reactor design acceptance) is specified through three criteria: peak cladding temperature (PCT), maximum local cladding oxidation (MLO) and core-wide cladding oxidation (CWO). The numerical values of these criteria reflect the material properties of the specific fuel element cladding and reactor coolant of the design under consideration. Throughout, for simplicity of illustration, only one acceptance criterion it is assumed, that of PCT and refer to it as LPCT. The extension to more than one numerical acceptance criterion is, in principle, straightforward. It is shown that, there are two fundamental issues with regard to the validity of the decision made under uncertainty with the best-estimate analyses as described here: A. The sample on which the decision is based is a random sample and a legitimate representation of the population with regard to the decision; B. The statistical inference is based on a statistic that has the correct physical interpretation for the problem at hand, such as the tolerance interval. We concentrated here primarily on the second of the two. There are no outstanding issues with regard to the validity of the statistical techniques. They are based on mathematical theorems and proven, as opposed to validated. On the other hand, the sample is the result of a deterministic calculation. The correctness of each observation in the sample depends on the validity of the thermal-hydraulic models; the numerical discretization of the models; and the solution algorithm. These have been and still are the central issues to making a decision with regard to ECCS performance

289

ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS  

Science.gov (United States)

Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

290

Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

Ihsan Yüksel

2012-11-01

291

Fraser tsa socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report assesses the impacts of three harvest forecasts within a multiple account framework that focuses attention on a range of values derived from the forest resource and recognizes that a number of factors may need to be considered when examining options for forest land management. The implications of the harvest forests are evaluated on the regional level for economic development, community, and aboriginal concerns, and on the provincial level for economic development, environmental implications, and government revenues. The document also describes the current timber supply situation and current forest management guidelines and gives a socio-economic profile of the area.

1994-01-01

292

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR THE GROUND WATER RULE (GWR)  

Science.gov (United States)

The Ground Water Rule Economic Analysis provides a description of the need for the rule, consideration of regulatory alternatives, baseline analysis including national ground water system profile and an estimate of pathogen and indicator occurrence (Chapter 4), a risk assessment ...

293

Analysis And Assistant Planning System Ofregional Agricultural Economic Inform  

Science.gov (United States)

For the common problems existed in regional development and planning, we try to design a decision support system for assisting regional agricultural development and alignment as a decision-making tool for local government and decision maker. The analysis methods of forecast, comparative advantage, liner programming and statistical analysis are adopted. According to comparative advantage theory, the regional advantage can be determined by calculating and comparing yield advantage index (YAI), Scale advantage index (SAI), Complicated advantage index (CAI). Combining with GIS, agricultural data are presented as a form of graph such as area, bar and pie to uncover the principle and trend for decision-making which can't be found in data table. This system provides assistant decisions for agricultural structure adjustment, agro-forestry development and planning, and can be integrated to information technologies such as RS, AI and so on.

Han, Jie; Zhang, Junfeng

294

Business Conditions and Economic Analysis: An Experiential Learning Program for Economics Students  

Science.gov (United States)

The authors describe the Business Conditions and Economic Analysis (BCEA) program developed at the University of Richmond. The BCEA program is an experiential learning format for economics students built on the success of student-managed investment funds (SMIF) in finance. In its initial implementation, the BCEA group conducts domestic and global…

Dolan, Robert C.; Stevens, Jerry L.

2006-01-01

295

Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?  

Science.gov (United States)

Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this information, is likely to be better than that without it, whether it leads to faster termination of uneconomic projects or the allocation of more appropriate resources to attractive projects. PMID:15693724

Miller, Paul

2005-01-01

296

Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

297

Economic analysis of reactor vessel thermal annealing  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper was an overview of the economics of RPV annealing. Cost factors were reviewed, the results of four case studies using VTESTER were presented. Benefits of annealing were listed

298

Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regr...

Kreishan, Fuad M.

2011-01-01

299

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

300

SAFIRE (Systems Analysis For ICF Reactor Economics): A systems analysis code for inertial fusion economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The SAFIRE (Systems Analysis For ICF Reactor Economics) computer code has been developed to facilitate economic analyses of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) reactor concepts. The code is designed for parametric analyses of conceptual designs appearing in the literature, in particular HYLIFE, HIBALL, Cascade, EAGLE, and dry-wall concepts. The objective is to identify power plant parameters and configurations that provide economic advantages, thus guiding future design efforts. The SAFIRE code consists of algorithms for evaluating technical performance parameters, direct and indirect capital costs, and the cost of electricity (COE) for a given set of input parameters. The scaling algorithms first evaluate the reactor component sizes for a given target yield and repetition rate, ensuring adherence to the engineering limits. If desired, the target yield and repetition rate are automatically selected to correspond to an input value for net electric power. Having assessed driver, target, and reactor performance, a plant energy balance is conducted, and the thermodynamic efficiency of the plant is calculated. Both a steam cycle and modified Brayton cycle can be accommodated. A double-wall heat exchanger option is included for the steam cycle, which allows for the elimination of the intermediate coolant loop. 4 refs., 2 figs.

McCarville, T.J.; Carson, C.F.; Glasgow, B.B.; Meier, W.R.

1986-01-01

 
 
 
 
301

An Analysis of Graduate Nursing Students' Innovation-Decision Process  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This study's purpose was to examine the innovation-decision process used by graduate nursing students when deciding to use computer applications. Graduate nursing students enrolled in a mandatory research class were surveyed before and after their use of a mainframe computer for beginning data analysis about their general attitudes towards computers, individual characteristics such as “cosmopoliteness”, and their desire to learn more about a computer application. It was expected that an e...

Kacynski, Kathryn A.; Roy, Katrina D.

1984-01-01

302

Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This work employed Artificial Neural Networks and Decision Trees data analysis techniques to discover new knowledge from historical data about accidents in one of Nigeria’s busiest roads in order to reduce carnage on our highways. Data of accidents records on the first 40 kilometres from Ibadan to Lagos were collected from Nigeria Road Safety Corps. The data were organized into continuous and categorical data. The continuous data were analysed using Artificial Neural Networks technique and the categorical data were also analysed using Decision Trees technique .Sensitivity analysis was performed and irrelevant inputs were eliminated. The performance measures used to determine the performance of the techniques include Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Confusion Matrix, Accuracy Rate, True Positive, False Positive and Percentage correctly classified instances. Experimental results reveal that, between the machines learning paradigms considered, Decision Tree approach outperformed the Artificial Neural Network with a lower error rate and higher accuracy rate. Our research analysis also shows that, the three most important causes of accident are Tyre burst, loss of control and over speeding.

Olutayo V.A

2014-01-01

303

Use of the partial farm budget technique to predict the economic impact of the flock management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis.  

Science.gov (United States)

A computer spreadsheet was developed to predict the economic impact of a management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic ovine pregnancy diagnosis. The spreadsheet design and spreadsheet cell formulas are provided. The program used the partial farm budget technique to calculate net return (NR) or cash flow changes that resulted from the decision to use ultrasonography. Using the program, either simple pregnancy diagnosis or pregnancy diagnosis with the ability to determine singleton or multiple pregnancies may be compared with no flock ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis. A wide range of user-selected regional variables are used to calculate the cash flow changes associated with the ultrasonography decisions. A variable may be altered through a range of values to conduct a sensitivity analysis of predicted NR. Example sensitivity analyses are included for flock conception rate, veterinary ultrasound fee, and the price of corn. Variables that influence the number of cull animals and the cost of ultrasonography have the greatest impact on predicted NR. Because the determination of singleton or multiple pregnancies is more time consuming, its economic practicality in comparison with simple pregnancy diagnosis is questionable. The value of feed saved by identifying and separately feeding ewes with singleton pregnancies is not offset by the increased ultrasonography cost. PMID:2670860

Sprecher, D J; Ley, W B; Whittier, W D; Bowen, J M; Thatcher, C D; Pelzer, K D; Moore, J M

1989-07-15

304

The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working i...

Ioannis Trigonis; Ourania Matsouka; George Costa; George Tzetzis

2008-01-01

305

EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

Andreea Lorena RADU

2011-06-01

306

Decision-making for south Florida water resources: ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling  

Science.gov (United States)

Water, sustainability, and climate issues faced by South Florida are complex and pressing. There are multiple competing water demands, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR), and exposure to climate variability that expose the region to a unique severity and diversity of challenges. This project is investigating strategies for the optimization of water use over a 50-year time horizon. The basis for optimization is hydro-economic and seeks to incorporate the value of ecosystem services - especially fisheries and carbon dynamics - in south Florida, along with more traditional agricultural, industrial, and urban economic drivers. Behavioral aspects of water management and land use planning decision-making under different potential future scenarios are also being studied. In particular, how individuals' perceptions of risks to the water supply differ, and how these differences influence their decisions when faced with an uncertain future, such as the one faced by south Floridians due to uncertainty about sea level rise. Experiments will determine how information type and uncertainty levels impact decisions made by individuals and stakeholder groups. The results of the experiments will be used to devise more effective decision-making forums that foster more widespread support of regional water management plans.

Sukop, M. C.; Bolson, J.

2013-12-01

307

INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to gi...

Miao, Cheng-lin; Feng, Jun-wen; Bai, Ju

2007-01-01

308

Análise de decisões sobre uso de tecnologia: um estudo no setor de telefonia móvel fundamentado nos axiomas da economia comportamental / Analysis of decisions on the use of technology: a study in the mobile telephone sector grounded in the axioms of behavioral economics  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese A Economia Comportamental, campo que recebeu grandes contribuições de Kahneman e Tversky e que rendeu um prêmio Nobel ao primeiro, é uma abordagem que se tem ocupado em caracterizar e analisar variados aspectos do comportamento decisório humano, descrevendo-o como não plenamente racional. Sua import [...] ância está em questionar a racionalidade da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada, TUE, aceito por décadas como modelo fundamental na economia. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar como as decisões sobre a adoção e uso de equipamentos e serviços apoiados por tecnologia são afetadas pelos aspectos influenciadores da decisão, preconizados por Kahneman e Tversky. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido por meio de experimento adaptado ao contexto do segmento de telefonia móvel, setor esse escolhido pela sua relevância nos últimos anos na economia brasileira. Os dados foram analisados por técnicas de comparação de grupos com variáveis categóricas. Os resultados permitiram evidenciar vários aspectos da não-racionalidade dos decisores conforme apregoado pelos autores originais, especialmente em relação a aspectos contidos na chamada Teoria dos Prospectos (Prospect Theory). A partir das descobertas, pode-se questionar decisões sobre a utilização de tecnologia no nível do indivíduo e organizações, com importantes conseqüências no nível gerencial. Abstract in english Behavioral economics, a field that has received major contributions from Kahneman and Tversky, the former also having received a Nobel prize, is an approach that has focused on a number of aspects of behavior in human decisions, defining their outcomes as not being fully rational. Its main contribut [...] ion was conquered by questioning the so far very well established Utility Theory, a very important basis in economics. This article aims to verify how decisions concerning the adoption and use of information technology are potentially affected by the factors described in Kahneman and Tversky's theory. This was done by means of an experiment adapted to the context of the mobile communications sector, which was chosen due to its economic and social relevance in recent years in Brazil. The data were analyzed by means of categorical group comparison techniques. The results provided evidence of non-rational behavior amongst decision makers as proposed by original authors, mainly those regarding aspects of the Prospect Theory. With this evidence, it is possible to question a number of aspects of individual and organizational decisions involving the use of information technology use, with important implications at the managerial levels.

Alexandre, Cappellozza; Otavio Prospero, Sanchez.

309

Economic analysis of geothermal heat source for residential area project  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

The article discusses the economic analysis of heat source for residential area project. The energy source is geothermal energy. Every house has its own borehole heat exchanger (BHE) and heat pump in basement. In this system low temperature floor and wall heating was carried out. The economic analysis was performed as a pilot study for real system with all installation needed to runthe system. The analysis has been done using the method of the net present value. In the research the coefficien...

Poberz?nik, Sas?o; Goric?anec, Darko; Krope, Jurij

2012-01-01

310

Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

311

The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

2003-01-01

312

??????????????????? Eco-Economic Evaluation of Farmland Water Conservancy Project Based on Energy Analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????6.55?4.44?281.37????????????????????????????????????????Engineering project evaluation is an important means of  farmland and conservancy project during investment decisions. However the present means cannot make a thorough quantitative analysis of all cost and benefit. Aiming at this problem, a new thinking of using energy analysis to make an ecological economic evaluation of  farmland and conservancy project is put forward in this paper. With example of Zhaokou Irrigation Area II Project, the complete analysis and calculation are made from three aspects such as economic, so- cial and ecological environment. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of farmland and conservancy project at the angle of ecological economic evaluation according the EmCBR and its criteria. The results show that the most affected factor in the eco-economic evaluation of farmland water conservancy project is the ecological environment, followed by economic and society. Their EmCBR values are 6.55, 4.44, 281.37, respectively. Therefore, this project has great social benefits. It is shows that the project is practical based on the eco-economic evaluation.

???

2012-11-01

313

The granger causality analysis of energy consumption and economic growth  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available After the first oil crisis the world’s countries had to face recession caused by the high oil prices, and the role of energy consumption became a core element of economics. Many studies examined (and examine today connection between energy consumption, economic growth and energy efficiency. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to this topic with an analysis of Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth in East-Central Europe.

T.S. Szép

2014-03-01

314

SAFIRE: a systems analysis code for inertial fusion economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The SAFIRE (Systems Analysis For ICF Reactor Economics) computer code has been developed to facilitate economic analyses of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) reactor concepts. The code is designed for parametric analyses of conceptual designs appearing in the literature, in particular HYLIFE, HIBALL, Cascade, EAGLE, and dry-wall concepts. The objective is to identify power plant parameters and configurations that provide economic advantages, thus guiding future design efforts.

McCarville, T.J.; Carson, C.F.; Glasgow, B.B.; Meier, W.R.

1986-01-01

315

Economic analysis of nuclear power generation  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The purpose of this study is to clarify the role of nuclear power generation under the circumstances of growing concerns about environmental impact and to help decision making in electricity sector. In this study, efforts are made to estimate electricity power generation cost of major power options by incorporating additional cost to reduce environmental impact and to suggest an optimal plant mix in this case. (Author)

316

A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia is to establish a nuclear research facility. Selection of a research reactor type for such a case is not an easy task. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors are selected for this study. These are: the University of Michigan Ford Nuclear Reactor (FNR), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), Georgia Institute of Technology Research Reactor (GTRR), and University of Wisconsin Nuclear Reactor (UWNR). The IFDA computer code, which based on the fuzzy set theory is applied here. The results show that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best

317

Lunar mission architecture evaluation using a decision analysis approach  

Science.gov (United States)

President Bush's call for a return to the Moon, followed by the human exploration of Mars, has spawned numerous ideas for implementing what has been called the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Because a return to the Moon has been designated as the first step of SEI, the time is rapidly approaching to select one of the many mission architectures proposed for the exploration, settlement, and exploitation of the Moon. The evaluation of alternative archictures, and the subsequent selection of the 'best' alternative will be critical to the success of this, and other, space programs. The following presentation discusses the application of systems analysis to the evaluation and selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture. The role of a decision model in the evaluation/selection process is discussed, and different types of decision models are presented. These models are analyzed and discussed in terms of their applicability to the selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture.

Gleave, Janet

1990-01-01

318

Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

2012-01-01

319

Ordinal benefits vs economic benefits as a reference guide for policy decision making. The case of hydrogen technologies  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The paper presents an Investment Evaluation Method in Energetic-Economic-Environmental field which is particularly indicated for Hydrogen Technologies because it enables us to account not only for the traditional economic return and the possible negative externalities (damages), but also for: i) the induced economic benefits at a social level; ii) those positive (and negative) externalities usually considered as being estimable in economic terms as ''proxies''; iii) and, finally, Ordinal Benefits. That is those Benefits which are never ever reducible to a simple monetary value, nonetheless they can always be object of a possible estimation, still in economic terms, by means of values understood as a ''cipher''. The advantages of a Decision Making Process based on Ordinal Benefits (vs traditional economic benefits) will be shown with reference to the evaluation of well-calibrated Incentives concerning Hydrogen Fuel Cells, both under static and dynamic conditions. Such an evaluation criterion, which is preferentially based on the estimated external Benefits to be ''remunerated'' rather than on possible damages to be internalized, represents a valid reference guide for a Policy Maker. This precisely because it is always orientated toward the genesis of the Maximum Ordinality Excess. (author)

Giannantoni, Corrado [ENEA - ' ' Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment' ' , Casaccia Research Center, S. Maria di Galeria, 00060 Rome (Italy)

2009-12-15

320

Economic principles for resource allocation decisions at national level to mitigate the effects of disease in farm animal populations.  

Science.gov (United States)

This paper originated in a project to develop a practical, generic tool for the economic evaluation of surveillance for farm animal diseases at national level by a state veterinary service. Fundamental to that process is integration of epidemiological and economic perspectives. Using a generalized example of epidemic disease, we show that an epidemic curve maps into its economic equivalent, a disease mitigation function, that traces the relationship between value losses avoided and mitigation resources expended. Crucially, elementary economic principles show that mitigation, defined as loss reduction achieved by surveillance and intervention, must be explicitly conceptualized as a three-variable process, and the relative contributions of surveillance and intervention resources investigated with regard to the substitution possibilities between them. Modelling the resultant mitigation surfaces for different diseases should become a standard approach to animal health policy analysis for economic efficiency, a contribution to the evolving agenda for animal health economics research. PMID:22717096

Howe, K S; Häsler, B; Stärk, K D C

2013-01-01

 
 
 
 
321

Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

322

A Comparative Analysis: The Meaning of Home Economics.  

Science.gov (United States)

The 1899-1908 Lake Placid Conferences' definition of home economics as a professional field of study was compared to the 1979 meaning in Home Economics: A Definition, a paper by Brown and Paolucci, to provide clarity and future direction for the field. A componential analysis was conducted with the following domains: family, religion, politics,…

Jax, Judy

323

ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EXPENSES IN AGRICULTURE. ANALYSIS MODELS  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Practical implementation of the concept of global economic efficiency requires modeling the extra economic-economic conversion process. This involves first of all classifying all components of a subsystem so that it is possible to observe the effects produced by the variation of elements, both in the specific area of the addressed field, as well as in the economic area. Thus, in developing the analysis models we started from the standard analysis models of economic efficiency, which were reco...

DANIELA SIMTION; ROXANA LUCA

2009-01-01

324

Neural signatures of economic parameters during decision-making: a functional MRI (FMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and autonomic monitoring study.  

Science.gov (United States)

Adaptive behaviour requires an ability to obtain rewards by choosing between different risky options. Financial gambles can be used to study effective decision-making experimentally, and to distinguish processes involved in choice option evaluation from outcome feedback and other contextual factors. Here, we used a paradigm where participants evaluated 'mixed' gambles, each presenting a potential gain and a potential loss and an associated variable outcome probability. We recorded neural responses using autonomic monitoring, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional neuroimaging (fMRI), and used a univariate, parametric design to test for correlations with the eleven economic parameters that varied across gambles, including expected value (EV) and amount magnitude. Consistent with behavioural economic theory, participants were risk-averse. Gamble evaluation generated detectable autonomic responses, but only weak correlations with outcome uncertainty were found, suggesting that peripheral autonomic feedback does not play a major role in this task. Long-latency stimulus-evoked EEG potentials were sensitive to expected gain and expected value, while alpha-band power reflected expected loss and amount magnitude, suggesting parallel representations of distinct economic qualities in cortical activation and central arousal. Neural correlates of expected value representation were localized using fMRI to ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while the processing of other economic parameters was associated with distinct patterns across lateral prefrontal, cingulate, insula and occipital cortices including default-mode network and early visual areas. These multimodal data provide complementary evidence for distributed substrates of choice evaluation across multiple, predominantly cortical, brain systems wherein distinct regions are preferentially attuned to specific economic features. Our findings extend biologically-plausible models of risky decision-making while providing potential biomarkers of economic representations that can be applied to the study of deficits in motivational behaviour in neurological and psychiatric patients. PMID:22101380

Minati, Ludovico; Grisoli, Marina; Franceschetti, Silvana; Epifani, Francesca; Granvillano, Alice; Medford, Nick; Harrison, Neil A; Piacentini, Sylvie; Critchley, Hugo D

2012-01-01

325

Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

2008-01-01

326

Economic data used in working group 5 analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

327

Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

328

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

2011-04-01

329

Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital  

Science.gov (United States)

Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

Uzawa, Hirofumi

2005-06-01

330

Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

2011-09-01

331

An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

S. Chinnammai

2013-01-01

332

Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

333

Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

Steven Simoens

2010-04-01

334

Subject economic thinking as an economic good: analysis of the phenomenon in the context of the conditions of C. Menger  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Understanding of economic thinking in terms of economic good creates the supposition for a detailed study of this phenomenon to enhance the individual socio-economic competitiveness of human, improvement of approaches to the economic education, setting priorities and mechanisms to improve the competitiveness of the national economy as a whole. In this connection, the analysis is made and interpretation of the phenomenon of subject economic thinking as an economic good is presented.

Bogunov Leonid Aleksandrovich

2012-06-01

335

Subject economic thinking as an economic good: analysis of the phenomenon in the context of the conditions of C. Menger  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

Understanding of economic thinking in terms of economic good creates the supposition for a detailed study of this phenomenon to enhance the individual socio-economic competitiveness of human, improvement of approaches to the economic education, setting priorities and mechanisms to improve the competitiveness of the national economy as a whole. In this connection, the analysis is made and interpretation of the phenomenon of subject economic thinking as an economic good is presented.

Bogunov Leonid Aleksandrovich

2012-01-01

336

Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

Cooper, J. Arlin

1999-06-10

337

Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

Martina Merková

2014-01-01

338

Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

Antonios Adamopoulos

2010-07-01

339

Handbook on the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects  

Science.gov (United States)

Handbook on the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects was written for non-economists working in the planning, implementation, and management of water supplies. Created by the Asian Development Bank, the handbook is a resource guide to help staff of government agencies, financing institutions, and water utilities understand the principles of economic analysis of water supply projects. Written in easy-to-understand language, the handbook consists of nine chapters, each with separate tables of contents, with titles such as "Least Cost Analysis," "Demand Analysis and Forecasting," and "Sensitivity and Risk Analysis." Each chapter is available only in .pdf format and must be downloaded separately. Also included are an appendix and glossary.

1999-01-01

340

Climate Change Adaptation Decisions Using Risk-Informed Trend Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Of the many previous studies which have sought to determine whether or not a statistically significant trend exists in hydroclimatic processes, the vast majority define no trend as the null hypothesis, and set a high significance level (usually 1 - ? = 0.95) to ensure that a trend is not mistakenly claimed. Though this constrains the probability of Type I error to 5%, the power of the test (1 - ?) is rarely reported, let alone are efforts made to limit this probability of Type II error. When trend analysis is used in choosing whether to adapt for increased floods or coastal storm surges, the Type I error corresponds to over-building; the Type II error corresponds to under-preparing, which often greatly exceeds the costs of over-building. The damages resulting from under-preparing are of great concern to decision-makers, who are poorly served by statistical methods which do not carefully consider these types of error. This presentation introduces a methodology which utilizes damage assessment and statistical decision theory to yield a risk-informed trend analysis method, helping stakeholders decide when to implement adaptation. The expected cost of error for a specified trend is estimated and used to inform the required power of the trend detection test. Either Monte Carlo simulation or analytical methods are used to determine the significance level of the test that will yield the required power, a significance level that will most likely be greater than 0.05. The historical record is then analyzed to determine if the specified trend can be detected within that significance level, and thus whether adaptation is advisable. A case study of coastal protection in Maine is used to demonstrate the method. The case study illustrates how statistical analysis of hydroclimatic records can be delivered in a way that will help governments and stakeholders make well-informed decisions for climate change adaptation.

Rosner, A.; Vogel, R. M.; Kirshen, P. H.

2011-12-01

 
 
 
 
341

Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Applying Economic Analysis to Environmental Problems: Opportunities and Constraints Economic analysis of environmental and natural resource mgement problems is receiving increasing attention. Whether the concern is with traditional pollution related issues, especially of air and water in urban areas, or with more complex natural resource management problems in rural areas, economists are increasingly being called upon to conduct analysis and offer policy advice for meeting these needs. This paper discusses the evolution of economic analysis of environmental concerns and considers some of the constraints to and opportunities for expanded economic analysis of environmental pmblems. Experience from both developing and developed countries is used to illustrate various points and an assessment of recent experience is offered.

John A. Dixon

1990-03-01

342

A binary decision diagram for fault tree analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In this paper, binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm is used for fault tree analysis. The ways of calculating failure probability and minimal cut-set (MCS) for certain fault trees are presented, including conversion from fault tree to BDD structure, obtaining MCS from BDD, MCS storage in terms of zero-suppressed BDD (ZBDD) for space-saving, and calculation of top event unavailability. A program was compiled and validated by calculating a PSA model of certain nuclear power plant both by hand and RiskSpectrum PSA. The comparison results show that the program can qualify and quantify a fault tree of relatively small scale. (authors)

343

The effects of background music and sound in economic decision making: Evidence from a laboratory experiment  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This paper experimentally studies the effects of background music and sound on the preference of the decision makers for rewards in pairwise intertemporal choice tasks and lottery choice tasks. The participants took part in the current experiment, involving four treatments: (1) the familiar music treatment; (2) the unfamiliar music treatment; (3) the noise treatment and (4) the no music treatment. The experimental results confirm that background noise affects human performance in decision mak...

Fujikawa, Takemi; Kobayashi, Yohei

2010-01-01

344

A New Analytical Model for the Analysis of Economic Processes  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In this work it is presented a new powerful model, well checked in the last years with the analysis of the dynamics of nano-bio-structures. The model permits the detailed study of the dynamical evolution of systems also at macro-level, offering analytical relations concerning the velocity and the distance of an economic variable, so as its diffusion in time; it permits the analysis of economic processes in general. In this paper it will be focused in particular about economic cycles.

Paolo Di Sia

2013-07-01

345

An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

346

Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making  

Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

Full Text Available SciELO South Africa | Language: English Abstract in english Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability r [...] isk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and experimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

Li, Xun-Gui; Wei, Xia; Huang, Qiang.

347

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

1993-01-01

348

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

1993-01-01

349

On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

350

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

L. SABAU

2013-07-01

351

Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information databases. Methods Five commercially available and two freely available online drug information databases were evaluated according to scope (presence or absence of answer, completeness (the comprehensiveness of the answers, and ease of use. Additionally, a composite score integrating all three criteria was utilized. Fifteen weighted categories comprised of 158 questions were used to conduct the analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square were used to summarize the evaluation components and make comparisons between databases. Scheffe's multiple comparison procedure was used to determine statistically different scope and completeness scores. The composite score was subjected to sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the choice of percentages for scope and completeness. Results The rankings for the databases from highest to lowest, based on composite scores were Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Lexi-Comp Online, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Epocrates Online Premium, RxList.com, and Epocrates Online Free. Differences in scope produced three statistical groupings with Group 1 (best performers being: Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Lexi-Comp Online, Group 2: Epocrates Premium and RxList.com and Group 3: Epocrates Free (p Conclusion Online drug information databases, which belong to clinical decision support, vary in their ability to answer questions across a range of categories.

Seamon Matthew J

2007-03-01

352

78 FR 66929 - Intent To Conduct a Detailed Economic Impact Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

...Intent To Conduct a Detailed Economic Impact Analysis AGENCY: Policy and...intent to conduct a detailed economic impact analysis regarding a loan guarantee...therefore not subject to a detailed economic impact analysis. DATES: The...

2013-11-07

353

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.  

Science.gov (United States)

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions. PMID:10106848

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

354

DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals  

Science.gov (United States)

Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

355

Analysis of obstetricians' decision making on CTG recordings.  

Science.gov (United States)

Interpretation of cardiotocogram (CTG) is a difficult task since its evaluation is complicated by a great inter- and intra-individual variability. Previous studies have predominantly analyzed clinicians' agreement on CTG evaluation based on quantitative measures (e.g. kappa coefficient) that do not offer any insight into clinical decision making. In this paper we aim to examine the agreement on evaluation in detail and provide data-driven analysis of clinical evaluation. For this study, nine obstetricians provided clinical evaluation of 634 CTG recordings (each ca. 60min long). We studied the agreement on evaluation and its dependence on the increasing number of clinicians involved in the final decision. We showed that despite of large number of clinicians the agreement on CTG evaluations is difficult to reach. The main reason is inherent inter- and intra-observer variability of CTG evaluation. Latent class model provides better and more natural way to aggregate the CTG evaluation than the majority voting especially for larger number of clinicians. Significant improvement was reached in particular for the pathological evaluation - giving a new insight into the process of CTG evaluation. Further, the analysis of latent class model revealed that clinicians unconsciously use four classes when evaluating CTG recordings, despite the fact that the clinical evaluation was based on FIGO guidelines where three classes are defined. PMID:24747355

Spilka, Ji?í; Chudá?ek, Václav; Jank?, Petr; Hruban, Lukáš; Burša, Miroslav; Huptych, Michal; Zach, Lukáš; Lhotská, Lenka

2014-10-01

356

Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In particular the presentation has argued that Decision Analysis (DA) has considerable advantages over Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), a view which may not be acceptable to practitioners of CBA. The criticism may be levelled that the authors have misinterpreted CBA in order to make their point. As mentioned above, however, the authors have taken a particular view of CBA in order to emphasize the distinction between an approach based in economics, and one based in psychology and management studies. Moreover many formal analyses of public policy today contain elements from both approaches, so that the distinction between CBA and DA may not be as clear-cut as indicated. There is however a basic difference of approach which it is hoped has been spelt out in the studies of chapters 2 and 3; the essential difference is between a device which seeks to determine what is socially best, in an objective manner, and a device to assist a group of decision-makers in clarifying their understanding of a complex decision problem

357

The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.  

Science.gov (United States)

The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts. PMID:20146758

Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

2010-01-01

358

Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.  

Science.gov (United States)

Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

Klein, Sharon J W

2013-12-17

359

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC  

Science.gov (United States)

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

360

The economics of sexual and reproductive health : resources for training sexual & reproductive health professionals in economic analysis  

Digital Repository Infrastructure Vision for European Research (DRIVER)

This resource book contains a collection of booklets on various aspects of the economics of sexual and reproductive health, including: (1) cost and expenditure analysis; (2) determining the costs of SRH programmes; (3) cost-effectiveness analysis; (4) using economic analysis to justify public intervention for SRH; (5) economic approaches to equity; (6) the economic impact of sexual and reproductive health; (7) estimating what is spent on sexual and reproductive health; (8) estimating future f...

Compernolle, P.; Vassall, A.; Baltussen, R.; Jansen, E.; Weissman, E.

2008-01-01

 
 
 
 
361

Economics 14.12: Lecture 2  

Science.gov (United States)

Lecture notes for a lesson at MIT on game theoretical approaches to decision making, including decision making with uncertain information and analysis of risk. The lesson primarily covers game theory and not economic applications.

Yildiz, Muhamet

362

Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study.

Smith, J. H.; Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1985-01-01

363

Arrowsmith TSA socio-economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Arrowsmith Timber Supply Area, located on southern Vancouver Island, covers some 125,000 hectares of productive forest land. This report profiles the Area and discusses the implications associated with certain timber harvest forecast scenarios chosen to illustrate a range of impacts. The report begins with a profile of the Area`s regional background, its communities and First Nations, and its environmental and outdoor recreational resources. It then presents an overview of the local forestry sector, including the timber harvesting land base, historic harvesting levels, and the local forest industry. Further sections of the report set out the timber harvest scenarios along with some related land use issues that could affect those forecasts, and estimates their impacts on employment, employment income, government revenues, local communities, First Nations, and the environment. The appendices include the economic impact methodology employed.

NONE

1995-12-31

364

From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

Hoffmann, T.

2006-05-04

365

Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

1981-05-01

366

The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is the price to be paid today in order t o pr

367

Contributions to risk informed decision-making. Operational risk analysis in the oil and gas industry  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This thesis addresses the use of risk analyses to support decision-making, to find the balance between different concerns, such as for example safety of personnel and operational costs, i.e. economic values. The focus is on the offshore oil and gas industry, but many of the discussions and conclusions are general and could also be applied to other industries. The thesis applies an understanding of risk being the combination of the two basic dimensions (a) possible consequences (outcomes) and (b) associated uncertainties. This risk concept is general, and risk analyses can be used to provide decision-making support to all kinds of decision problems. However, our main focus is on risk analyses in the operational phase, so-called operational risk analyses, and in particular evaluation of safety barrier performance, for the protection of personnel, environment and assets. Hence, the main focus in this thesis is upon risks in terms of hazardous events. The challenges in the operational phase differ from the planning phase, and many risk analyses carried out today do not reflect installation-specific information obtained in the operational phase to the extent that is wanted. There is a need for more suitable risk analysis tools, and the thesis gives some contributions to development of such tools

Roeed, Willy

2006-08-15

368

ArgMax: Economics News, Data, and Analysis  

Science.gov (United States)

Created by John Irons, an assistant professor of economics at Amherst, the ArgMax Web site (named after a mathematical terms utilized in economics) provides a host of current news, data, and topical analysis of economics. Updated frequently by a newsbot, the news and commentary section is divided into several themed sections and drawn from a wide number of online sources. After reading some of these articles, visitors may want to consult the online economics glossary that offers brief explanations of terms ranging from absolute advantage to wire transfer. Another section contains the blog that Irons writes for the site and various articles of interest. The seemingly innocuous "Stuff" section contains some nice gems, including an interview with Irons about becoming involved in the field of economics. Overall, the site is a nice way for people who are familiar (or just getting acquainted) with the discipline. [KMG

369

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

370

ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EXPENSES IN AGRICULTURE. ANALYSIS MODELS  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Practical implementation of the concept of global economic efficiency requires modeling the extra economic-economic conversion process. This involves first of all classifying all components of a subsystem so that it is possible to observe the effects produced by the variation of elements, both in the specific area of the addressed field, as well as in the economic area. Thus, in developing the analysis models we started from the standard analysis models of economic efficiency, which were reconstructed for the protection environment activity, defining in this manner the factors of influence for the economic efficiency of the expense for environmental protection in agriculture.

DANIELA SIMTION

2009-05-01

371

Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic  

Science.gov (United States)

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

2009-01-01

372

Analysis of the generalization ability of a full decision tree  

Science.gov (United States)

Classification algorithms based on full decision trees are investigated. Due to the decision tree construction under consideration, all the features satisfying a branching criterion are taken into account at each special vertex. The generalization ability of a full decision tree is estimated by applying margin theory. It is shown on real-life problems that the construction of a full decision tree leads to an increase in the margins of the learning objects; moreover, the number of objects with a positive margin increases as well. It is shown that the empirical Rademacher complexity of a full decision tree is lower than that of a classical decision tree.

Genrikhov, I. E.

2014-06-01

373

Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.  

Science.gov (United States)

In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. PMID:23021947

Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

2013-05-01

374

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems  

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so called naive scenario and a risk-averse scenario, are evaluated in this case study.

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

375

The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process

376

The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

Ulusoy, Ali [School of Law, Ankara University (Turkey); Oguz, Fuat [Department of Economics, Baskent University, Eskisehir Yolu 20. km, 06530 Baglica, Ankara (Turkey)

2007-10-15

377

Primary economic analysis of NHR using in air-conditioning  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The authors describes the principle of NHR using in air-conditioning. According to the practical situation of air-conditioning in big cities in South China. An economic analysis of NHR using in air-conditioning is carried out by means of the economic evaluation method which is popular at present. The scale of power, price and cost of heat energy for the NHR have been obtained. Comparing the economical aspects of nuclear energy with that of the conventional air-conditioning method, it shows that the nuclear air-conditioning has a bright future

378

Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued by the avoided cost method. The results of the study establish that GT have better commercial and economic performance than CT, and that the inclusion of environmental benefit significantly improves the results.

Horacio Alfredo Gil

2013-12-01

379

Change of Guard for Economic Analysis and Policy  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available It is with great pleasure and enthusiasm that we took over the editorship of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP in 2008. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch. In this note, we would like to highlight the changes that we have made to the journal. We hope and believe that these changes will enable EAP to move forward, increase its readership, move towards an impact factor and contribute to economic policy as well as the academic and industry discussions at local, national, and international levels. In the following we present key changes and the rationale behind it. We begin with a brief history of EAP.

Dulleck, Uwe

2008-03-01

380

Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods  

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

 
 
 
 
381

Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

A de Waal

2007-12-01

382

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT: AN APPLICATION TO HAZARDOUS WASTES  

Science.gov (United States)

The report evaluates the usefulness of economic analysis in designing effective and efficient hazardous waste regulations. In particular, it examines the applicability of cost/benefit analysis to the specific problems posed by hazardous waste mangement. The background for the ana...

383

Health-economic rates for medical services and clinical economic analysis as components of health reform in Kazakhstan  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available In 2002, Kazakhstan started with a new stage of development ofmedical-economic protocols for all levels of care in the country.This article accentuates on importance of developing clinicaleconomic analysis that helps to provide unified and optimizedrates on medical services throughout the country. Optimizedmedical rates, the authors argue, deliver high quality medicalservices at effective economic costs, as well as efficient publicbudgeting. Authors describe key points of the Unified NationalHealth System of the country. The paper provides review of thehistory of clinical-economic analysis, describes the main types ofclinical-economic analysis, prospects for the development ofclinical and economic analysis in Kazakhstan as well.

Adi Demessinov

2010-04-01

384

Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis  

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and Sensitivity measures for soil aggregation, for developing dependence methodology, for constructing early alert logic, for tracking trends, for relating the Markov model to other (e.g., Reason) models, for developing and demonstrating rudimentary laptop software, and for developing an input/output display methodology.

COOPER,J. ARLIN

1999-09-01

385

Decision theory with imperfect information  

CERN Document Server

Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combi

Aliev, Rafik A

2014-01-01

386

Economic factorial analysis: general theory and original approaches  

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Full Text Available This research work is about the methodology of economic factorial analysis, which is an actual instrument for the analysis of different economic and technological models. The acceptance of control solutions becomes the result of model?s study in this case. This fact defines the importance of this unit for the analysis of systems. It is possible to realise the different numerical experiments on simulation of different processes and their following analysis using the methods received in the course of research of static and dynamical factorial analysis. The given analytical tool is widely used in practice. Author has carried out the research using the methods of factorial analysis in conditions of