WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  2. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    NRMRL-CIN-1351 Hofstetter**, P., and Hammitt, J. K. Human Health Metrics for Environmental Decision Support Tools: Lessons from Health Economics and Decision Analysis. Risk Analysis 600/R/01/104, Available: on internet, www.epa.gov/ORD/NRMRL/Pubs/600R01104, [NET]. 03/07/2001 D...

  3. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in ...

  4. Introduction: Behavioral economics, business decision making and applied policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Berg, Nathan

    2007-01-01

    The emergence of behavioural economics has provided new insights into economic and business phenomena by integrating elements of economic theory and experimental psychology. So far, the behavioural economics research agenda has concentrated on the empirical validity of foundational assumptions, producing new descriptive accounts of behavioural patterns that are difficult to explain using traditional neoclassical assumptions. This agenda has now developed sufficiently to begin exploring how to...

  5. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Michael F Goodchild; Luc Anselin; Linna Li; Wenwen Li

    2013-01-01

    Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) for urban economic analysis and simulation. Th...

  6. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  7. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  8. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  9. The Economics and Politics of Trade Policy: An Empirical Analysis of ITC Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Wendy L.; Prusa, Thomas J.

    1996-01-01

    We study the determinants of trade policy decisions focusing specifically on antidumping and countervailing duty statutes administered by the International Trade Commission (ITC). Using detailed industry, import, and political pressure data we model ITC decision making, weighing the relative impact of economic and political factors in predicting policy outcomes. We find the ITC's decision making is significantly influenced by both economic and political factors. However, because an industry h...

  10. Economic decisions in mastitis management

    OpenAIRE

    Huijps, K.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis was conducted with the main objectives (i) to calculate costs of mastitis and cost-efficiency of mastitis management measures and (ii) to acquire insights in the economic decision behaviour of dairy farmers with respect to mastitis management. Animal health economics is a decision supporting science, based on a decision making function of evaluating and choosing between alternative strategies on animal diseases. The potential economic importance of diseases such as mastitis is not...

  11. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment. PMID:23843123

  12. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

  13. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

  15. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.

  16. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  17. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  18. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

  19. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  20. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Carl B. McGowan, Jr.; Susan E. Moeller

    2009-01-01

    The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM) developed by Bhalla (1983) uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measur...

  1. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

  2. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  3. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic de...

  4. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  5. Risk and decision analysis software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murtha, J.

    1997-08-01

    The oil and gas industry engages in risky decision making. They invest money and other resources in projects whose outcomes are highly uncertain. They drill complex wells and build gas plants, refineries, platforms, and pipelines where costly problems could occur and associated revenues might be disappointing. They may lose their investment or they may make a handsome profit. Assessing the outcomes and assigning probabilities of occurrence and associated values are how they analyze and manage risk. A renewed interest in quantifying risk and formalizing complex decisions merits a review of the commercial software available. While this effort is not exhaustive, it serves as a starting point for the engineer or geoscientist whose interests point in this direction. Risk and decision analysis software is as diverse as the analysis methods themselves. Principally, there are programs that perform Monte Carlo simulation and make decision trees. Analytic models that do economics can be linked to both simulation and decision trees; optimization, sensitivity analysis, and influence diagrams are closely related. In addition, one encounters forecasting, expert systems, and fuzzy logic. Within geoscientists` purview are mapping packages and geostatistics software, both of which have the potential to offer strong support to uncertainty analysis. This article concentrates on software for decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, economics, portfolios, and statistical analysis.

  6. Decision analysis and economic evaluation of the use of the rapid milk progesterone assay for early detection of pregnancy status of cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, P M; Galligan, D T

    1990-12-15

    The economic feasibility of the use of rapid milk progesterone assays (RMPA) for early detection of pregnancy status in cows, to reduce the cost associated with reproductive inefficiency, was evaluated by use of decision analysis techniques. A decision tree was formulated and used to compare the RMPA to the alternative of palpation per rectum alone for the determination of pregnancy status. A computer spreadsheet was used to examine the effect of manipulating the values of inputs affecting the optimal decision (ie, cost of a day a cow is not pregnant, conception rate, cost of the RMPA, test sensitivity and specificity, cost of insemination) over the range of values likely to be encountered. The sensitivity of the optimal decision was greatest to the variables for cost of a day a cow is not pregnant, conception rate, and cost of the RMPA. When the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant is +2.00 and the cost of the RMPA is +6.00, the best decision is to use the RMPA when the herd conception rate is between 20 and 77%. When the herd conception rate is 60%, the best decision is to use the RMPA as long as the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant is greater than +1.44. Indifference curves were calculated, allowing both the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant and conception rate to vary, and used to select the most economical decision. Use of the RMPA for early detection of pregnancy status is likely to be economically advantageous in most dairy operations. PMID:2276951

  7. Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U3O8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  8. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY, the probability for cost-effectiveness of a collaborative practice would exceed 50%. At 20,000,000 KRW per QALY, which is recommended using per capita gross domestic product (GDP as the threshold, the probability would be 72.3%. Conclusions On the basis of our findings, acupuncture collaborative therapy for patients with chronic LBP may be cost-effective if the usual threshold is applied. Further empirical studies are required to overcome the limitations of uncertainties and improve the precision of the results.

  9. Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

  10. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are sh...

  11. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior. PMID:25205006

  12. Subjective Information in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Donkers, A.C.D.

    2000-01-01

    Economists have been rather skeptical towards the use of subjective information. This thesis shows that this type of information can be relevant for the empirical explanation of economic decisions. Three examples of subjective information, which are time preference, income uncertainty, and risk aversion, are studied extensively in this thesis. The models used in the analyses of the subjective information are based on models developed by economic psychologists. These models are different from ...

  13. Template-Directed Instrumentation Reduces Cost and Improves Efficiency for Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Economic Decision Analysis and Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Carroll, Kaitlin M; Blevins, Jason L; DeNegre, Scott T; Mayman, David J; Jerabek, Seth A

    2015-10-01

    Template-directed instrumentation (TDI) for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may streamline operating room (OR) workflow and reduce costs by preselecting implants and minimizing instrument tray burden. A decision model simulated the economics of TDI. Sensitivity analyses determined thresholds for model variables to ensure TDI success. A clinical pilot was reviewed. The accuracy of preoperative templates was validated, and 20 consecutive primary TKAs were performed using TDI. The model determined that preoperative component size estimation should be accurate to ±1 implant size for 50% of TKAs to implement TDI. The pilot showed that preoperative template accuracy exceeded 97%. There were statistically significant improvements in OR turnover time and in-room time for TDI compared to an historical cohort of TKAs. TDI reduces costs and improves OR efficiency. PMID:26021908

  14. Retubing decision rides on technical, economic evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hager, M.J.; Anderson, G.A.

    1986-07-01

    The economic and technical aspects are discussed for retubing a steam condenser at Brayton Point Unit 3, Somerset, MA, USA. An evaluation at the plant led to the conclusion that erosion/corrosion was the primary failure mode, and to the decision to retube with Alloy 722 - an 85/15 copper/nickel alloy during the 1985 annual overhaul.

  15. Economic Evaluation Enhances Public Health Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabarison, Kristina M.; Bish, Connie L.; Massoudi, Mehran S.; Giles, Wayne H.

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking “how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical care and/or social services?” is important when making decisions about resource allocation and scaling of interventions. PMID:26157792

  16. A Multidimensional Framework for Financial-Economic Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Hallerbach, W.G.P.M.; Spronk, J.

    2003-01-01

    Most financial-economic decisions are made consciously, with a clear and constant drive to ???good???, ???better??? or even ???optimal??? decisions. Nevertheless, many decisions in practice do not earn these qualifications, despite the availability of financial economic theory, decision sciences and ample resources. We plea for the development of a multidimensional framework to support financial economic decision processes. Our aim is to achieve a better integration of available theory and de...

  17. Importance of perspective in economic analyses of cancer screening decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansley, E C; McKenna, M T

    2001-10-01

    As the fifth, and final, report in this Lancet series on health economics, we discuss how economic analyses in public health, with cancer screening as the example, differ depending on the perspective taken. We identify nine different, but related, decision makers at various levels, from the individual patient to society as a whole, and discuss how their different viewpoints affect their ultimate decisions. Central to our discussion is the identification of seven distinct components of perspective, each potentially important in the screening decision. In many fields of healthcare, decisions about the use of resources, such as time, wealth, or energy, are made by weighing up the positive and negative consequences of the alternatives under consideration and are thus based on an economic analysis of the situation (although sometimes this process is subconscious). For simplicity, we restrict our report to the effect of perspective on cancer screening decisions and show how the costs (negative consequences) and benefits (positive consequences) vary depending on the decision maker. PMID:11597692

  18. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics

    OpenAIRE

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P.; Tobler, Philippe N.

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent dev...

  19. Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions : an economic survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tove; Olsen, SØren BØye

    Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline of the many different Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques available and their relative advantages and disadvantages. In addition, theoretical and practical problems related to the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and MCA respectively are briefly discussed. We then review the MCA literature on case studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming.

  20. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  1. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  2. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. PMID:23317834

  3. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  4. PARAMETERIZING GPFARM: AN AGRICULTURAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR INTEGRATING SCIENCE, ECONOMICS, RESOURCE USE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Few farmers and ranchers adopt agricultural software such as decision support systems (DSS). While numerous decision aids are available, most are too difficult for producers to use, exclude components (e.g., economic budgeting, weeds, multicriteria decision analysis) necessary for meaningful use on...

  5. HERRAMIENTAS TEORICO CONCEPTUALES PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES EN COMITÉS DE ECONOMIA PÚBLICA / CONCEPTUAL THEORETICAL TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS COMMITTEES

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Francisca, Salinas Esteban; Munir Andrés, Jalil Barney.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es un trabajo de carácter teórico la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública. Se expondrá en primer lugar algunos conceptos básicos sobre la toma de decisiones, tales como: 1- las condiciones, 2- los factores individuales, 3- grupales y 4- las clasificaciones de las decisione [...] s, especialmente relacionadas al campo de las políticas públicas. Posteriormente, se presentarán algunos de los modelos sobre toma de decisiones relacionados con vertientes de la teoría económica y trabajos empíricos sobre la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública, tanto fiscal como monetaria, los cuales pueden servir como marco de referencia para futuras investigaciones. Abstract in english This article is a theoretical work on the topic of decision making in public economics committees. It will present a First some basics about decisions such as: 1 conditions - 2 individual factors 3 - group and 4 - classifications of particular decisions related to the field of public policy. Later i [...] n January - will be presented some models of decision making related to aspects of economic theory and 2 - empirical work on decision making in committees specifically in public economics committees both fiscal and monetary, which can serve as a framework for reference for future research.

  6. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  7. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  8. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  9. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  10. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference for couples. Before the birth, the future may be vague. After the birth, life without a child becomes unimaginable. PMID:12291178

  11. Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farb NA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

  12. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  13. The role of economic evaluations in health care decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Lundkvist, Jonas

    2005-01-01

    Increasing health care expenditures, a rapid introduction of new medical technologies and a need for cost containment policies in most countries during the last decades have led to a growing interest in information from economic evaluations for decision making about resource allocation in health care. Economic evaluations can provide valuable information in many types of decision making, e.g. related to the use of drugs, other health care interventions/programs and investmen...

  14. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  15. Multistage stochastic decision and economic processes.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ka?ková, Vlasta

    2005-01-01

    Ro?. 13, ?. 1 (2005), s. 119-127. ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ?R GA402/02/1015; GA AV ?R IAA7075202 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : economic processes * multistage stochastic programming * Markov dependence Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  16. Decision Analysis and Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Henrion, Max; Breese, John S.; Horvitz, Eric J.

    1991-01-01

    Decision analysis and expert systems are technologies intended to support human reasoning and decision making by formalizing expert knowledge so that it is amenable to mechanized reasoning methods. Despite some common goals, these two paradigms have evolved divergently, with fundamental differences in principle and practice. Recent recognition of the deficiencies of traditional AI techniques for treating uncertainty, coupled with the development of belief nets and influence diagrams, is stimu...

  17. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  18. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  19. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimizatio

  20. Introduction to health economics and decision-making: Is economics relevant for the frontline clinician?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Diaby, Vakaramoko

    2013-12-01

    In a climate of escalating demands for new health care services and significant constraints on new resources, the disciplines of health economics and health technology assessment (HTA) have increasingly been turned to as explicit evidence-based frameworks to help make tough health care access and reimbursement decisions. Health economics is the discipline of economics concerned with the efficient allocation of health care resources, essentially trying to maximize health benefits to society contingent upon available resources. HTA is a broader field drawing upon several disciplines, but which relies heavily upon the tools of health economics and economic evaluation. Traditionally, health economics and economic evaluation have been widely used at the political (macro) and local (meso) decision-making levels, and have progressively had an important role even at informing individual clinical decisions (micro level). The aim of this paper is to introduce readers to health economics and discuss its relevance to frontline clinicians. Particularly, the content of the paper will facilitate clinicians' understanding of the link between economics and their medical practice, and how clinical decision-making reflects on health care resource allocation. PMID:24182604

  1. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  2. Economic Analysis of Transnational Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Donald

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher…

  3. Offshore location decision and economic crisis (The case of Greece)

    OpenAIRE

    Tsimiklis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    Outsourcing is a trend that has penetrated many industries over the last years taking the form of offshore outsourcing in many cases. However the location decision that follows the offshore outsourcing or the offshoring decision is quite complex and almost impossible to be answered through a linear model. A series of frameworks have been developed attempting to facilitate the process above.The focus of this work is the analysis of the location decision making through the reflection of the exi...

  4. Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G.; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

    2015-01-01

    A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies. PMID:26186527

  5. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  6. Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

    2014-10-01

    Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. PMID:25105951

  7. Economic decision making: application of the theory of complex systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kitt, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openn...

  8. Fast breeder reactor decision: an analysis of limits and the limits of analysis. A study prepared for the use of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Ninety-Fourth Congress, Second Session

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decisions on the development of the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR), which may involve nontransferable gains for current generations and major losses for future generations cannot be determined on a cost-benefit basis. Several cost-benefit analyses of the LMFBR are reviewed. With only one exception, all major analyses compare LMFBR futures with non-LMFBR futures and consider only the energy supply aspect of alternatives. The Manne study, however, compares peak-load pricing of electricity and points out that removal of distortions in energy pricing has greater economic benefits than economic losses due to delays in introducing the LMFBR. Revised price structures for electricity could have a larger future payoff than rapid LMFBR development. Constraints on LMFBR development, such as resource supplies, technological development, licensing, siting, and waste disposal, may have been underestimated. Appropriate institutions and procedures for nuclear decision making must be defined

  9. Economic aspects of clinical decision making: new perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natiello, T A

    1988-03-01

    New perspectives on the economic aspects of clinical decision making in the changing health-care environment are discussed. Economic appraisal of health-care delivery offers a mechanism for categorizing choices, assigning priorities, and consolidating disparate aspects of a problem into common measures, such as the ratio of cost to a desired outcome. While past applications of this technique to health care usually considered only one aspect of patient care at a time, the importance of examining the entire process of patient-care activities and the outcome of that process is now recognized. Clinical decision making should transcend traditional boundaries, such as departments, specialty activities, and institutions. The methods of optimizing health-care outcome must be incorporated into the organization's mission, goals, and reward system. Economic evaluations of clinical decision making should incorporate a framework in which choices are related to desired outcomes and beneficial situations. The challenges lie in defining overall measures of health-care provision and developing management information systems reflecting these patient-care objectives and desired outcomes. PMID:3369457

  10. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  11. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  12. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  13. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

  14. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  15. Multicriteria decision analysis in geographic information science

    CERN Document Server

    Malczewski, Jacek

    2015-01-01

    This book integrates Multicriteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information Science, offering a comprehensive account of theories, methods, technologies and tools for tackling spatial decision problems and showing how GIS-MCDA aids planning and management.

  16. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  17. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  18. Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Ron W.

    2015-01-01

    Historical economic growth is analysed using the method of reciprocal values. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that the natural tendency for the historical economic growth was to increase hyperbolically.

  19. A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Riana Iren RADU

    2011-01-01

    Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In...

  20. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

  1. Energy-economics-environment analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on topical studies related to energy and nuclear power in the context of sustainable development, and of techno-economic factors potentially affecting the future development of nuclear technologies. It offers over-arching analyses of energy, environmental and economic issues in the context of national sustainable development and energy security goals, and in competitive markets. These studies are done in collaboration with or used by MS and other international organisations for informed decision-making about the future role of nuclear technologies. The IAEA further offers energy assessments: comparing different energy technologies and choices, exploring and quantifying their costs, consequences and benefits, with a special focus, where appropriate, on nuclear power. Economic assessments offered include comparing the costs, relative cost-effectiveness and viability of nuclear and other technology choices, policy alternatives, or different climate change mitigation or sustainable development strategies, taking into account technology learning and innovation. Environmental assessments offered include estimating environmental impacts and external costs (health effects and materials damage) of pollution arising from specific energy production and use patterns

  2. Decision analysis for resource allocation in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Susan; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark

    2008-10-01

    This paper addresses the use of economic evaluation to inform resource allocation decisions within health care systems about which interventions to reimburse and whether additional research should be funded. A social decision-making view of economic evaluation, that is to maximize health gains subject to an exogenous budget constraint, is adopted. A brief overview of the components of an economic evaluation is presented. Particular attention is paid to how uncertainty is inherent to decisions about resource allocation, the consequences of that uncertainty and how it can be incorporated informatively into economic evaluation. A Bayesian approach to uncertainty is used as it meets the needs of social decision-making, allowing analysts to quantify the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the available evidence and to quantify the expected value of further research. The discussion covers methods to represent parameter and structural uncertainty and considers the role of formal elicitation of expert judgements. The association between decisions to approve interventions for reimbursement and decisions about future research funding, and how value of information analysis can be used to formalize this link, is explained. Recent developments in the UK highlight the evolving policy environment for economic evaluation, such as the Cooksey report on the funding of UK health research, the review of the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme by the Office of Fair Trading and the update of the methodological guidelines issued by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. The paper concludes by describing ongoing methodological work designed to meet the challenges of undertaking decision analysis for resource allocation in health care. PMID:18806189

  3. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures ...

  4. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions:

    OpenAIRE

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and e...

  5. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa; adjust irrigation water management; select crop types; facilitate planning; estimate crop yields before harvesting, and consequently to forecast market price development. Remote sensing data and e...

  6. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  7. DECISION ANALYSIS IN HEALTH COVERAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Beatriz, Orzuza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2000 the Organization of the United Nations established eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. The fourth objective, reducing child mortality, looks specifically for reducing two thirds of the mortality of children under five years old between 1990 and 2015. One of the specific indicators to measure progress towards this goal is the proportion of children under one year old immunized against measles.In 2001, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP estimated that over 60% of the population who lived in developing nations is far away or losing ground on achievement of the MDGs in reducing rates of infant mortality. This situation is compounded by the lack of progress in deepening the analysis of the issue, the lack of research and indicators to assess features timely coverage of care and health services.This article aims to contribute to the selection of the strategy which would improve health coverage in Misiones, using one of the tools of decision theory, the decision matrix.

  8. How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bodor, Andras; Robalino, David; Rutkowski, Michal

    2008-01-01

    Mandatory pension systems can have a negative impact on individual savings and labor supply decisions. In particular, defined benefit pension schemes that are not actuarially fair, can create incentives for early retirement, and therefore, reduce labor supply and the stock of human capital. After a review of frequently applied approaches to assess the incentives generated by a pension system, the paper develops an indicator to predict the age-specific retirement probabilities induced by...

  9. Dopaminergic modulation of the trade-off between probability and time in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrondo, Gonzalo; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Fernández-Seara, Maria A; Goñi, Joaquín; Loayza, Francis R; Salamon-Klobut, Ewa; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, Maria A

    2015-06-01

    Studies on animals and humans have demonstrated the importance of dopamine in modulating decision-making processes. In this work, we have tested dopaminergic modulation of economic decision-making and its neural correlates by administering either placebo or metoclopramide, a dopamine D2-receptor antagonist, to healthy subjects, during a functional MRI study. The decision-making task combined probability and time delay with a fixed monetary reward. For individual behavioral characterization, we used the Probability Time Trade-off (PTT) economic model, which integrates the traditional trade-offs of reward magnitude-time and reward magnitude-probability into a single measurement, thereby quantifying the subjective value of a delayed and probabilistic outcome. A regression analysis between BOLD signal and the PTT model index permitted to identify the neural substrate encoding the subjective reward-value. Behaviorally, medication reduced the rate of temporal discounting over probability, reflected in medicated subjects being more prone to postpone the reward in order to increase the outcome probability. In addition, medicated subjects showed less activity during the task in the postcentral gyrus as well as frontomedian areas, whereas there were no differences in the ventromedial orbitofrontal cortex (VMOFC) between groups when coding the subjective value. The present study demonstrates by means of behavior and imaging that dopamine modulation alters the probability-time trade-off in human economic decision-making. PMID:25840742

  10. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  11. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  12. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  13. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included.

  14. Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

  15. An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

  16. ECONOMIC EFFICENCY ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sorin Briciu

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The investments represent a factor of economic growth and development on long term, and for this reason, the economic efficiency analysis of the investment projects is an important element in funding the strategic options and decisions. In this article it is realized an overview of the theoretical framework regarding the investments, the relevance of cost - benefit analysis for investment projects, the economic efficiency of investments and ways to increase economic efficiency and it is realized a case study on the determination and analysis of economic efficiency of investment projects within the agriculture entities. The research leads to two major categories of tangible results, on the one hand it realized a qualitative theoretical synthesis on investments and their efficiency and on the other hand, it exemplifies the calculation, analysis and interpretation of the indicators used in the investment projects in entity by agriculture field.

  17. Technological-economic models for energy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, K C

    1978-01-01

    The energy system and economic models described in this paper are designed for general usage in government and industry. Most energy-policy issues and decisions involve a complex mix of technical, economic, environmental, and social value considerations. Specific policy actions addressing any one of these elements can have significant effects on the others, frequently in direct conflict with other policy objectives. Many of the important attributes of energy policy, such as resource requirements, demand, environmental effects, prices, and trade, are expressed in quantitative terms and are subject to known physical and economic relations. While most of these are relatively simple when taken individually, a comprehensive set of relationships must be assembled and integrated in order to capture the complexities of the entire scope of energy policy. The resultant system involves a blend of theory and practice from the scientific, engineering, and economic disciplines supported by the methods of applied mathematics, operations research, systems analysis, and computer science. The models described here are based primarily on engineering and economic relationships; social, legal, and institutional factors that bear on value judgments and nontechnical, noneconomic constraints are not incorporated. The methodology employed for energy analysis and technology assessment consists of three building blocks: (1) A network diagram portrays the technical structure of the energy system--the Reference Energy System and Supporting Data Base; (2) a linear-programming model provides a technique for system design and synthesis--the Energy System Optimization Model (BESOM and variants); and (3) a set of process models represents the technological options in major energy-use sectors--residential- and commercial-space conditioning, steel, aluminum, paper, cement, and chemicals.

  18. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  20. Economic analysis: A basic primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doig G

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical knowledge is advancing at an incredible rate. This rapid increase in the fundamental understanding of disease states has led to some important breakthroughs in care over the past ten years and will undoubtedly lead to untold more. At the same time that we are being presented with more options for diagnosis and treatment, governments around the world are fighting to reduce deficit spending and inflation. As a direct result of this combination of reduced spending and increased options for care, medical professionals are being asked to provide more effective care more efficiently. The randomized control trial may be the best way to determine the effectiveness of different options, however, only a full economic analysis can help decide which option is more efficient. This paper is intended to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the methods used to perform a full economic analysis.

  1. Economic decision making of renewable power producers under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Chenlu

    The recent booming development of renewable power generation and government subsidies are constantly under scrutiny and various opinions exist regarding whether subsidies should be continued or not. Motivated by the controversies and debates, this dissertation attempted to address the investment decision making problem under uncertainties in the renewable power industry from the perspective of an individual power producer. Given that independent power producers still dominate the renewable power production and that majority of their output are sold through long-term power purchase agreements, this study focused on two types of uncertainties that could represent most of their kinds: the operations & maintenance (O&M) cost and governmental subsidy's renewal/expiration. Three types of investment activities that covers the major part of any renewable power plant's economic life are thoroughly investigated in a chronological order: an initial entry, exit when the plant reaches its economic life, and repowering. A real-options approach was adopted and improved to model the value of a power plant considering its future activities, while both cost and policy changes modeled as some stochastic processes. Significant policy implications and managerial insights were obtained as a result of extensive analytical modeling and statistical study of empirical evidence.

  2. Assessing Climate Information Use in Agribusiness. Part II: Decision Experiments to Estimate Economic Value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonka, Steven T.; Changnon, Stanley A.; Hofing, Steven

    1988-08-01

    Difficulty in evaluating the economic effectiveness of climate information is a significant impediment to expanding the use of that information. An innovative approach, combining a decision experiment and an empirical economic analysis was implemented in this paper as a mans to conduct such an economic evaluation. The decision setting was that of planning the distribution of varieties and amounts of seed corn for a major seed corn producing firm in the midwestern United States. Actual managers, accustomed to making this decision, wore provided forecasts of July and August temperature and precipitation. Their responses to that information were evaluated in terms of cost savings for the firm. Across the range of relevant parameter values tested, savings from the use of perfect forecast information were estimated to be 2% to 5% of production costs. Interestingly, imperfect forecasts of relatively adverse conditions were shown to have considerable value. For example, forecasts of adverse condition accurate only 50% of the time, wore shown to have about two-thirds of the value of perfect forecast information.

  3. Sugar Beet Production: A System Dynamics Model and Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozman ?rtomir

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns.

  4. Decision analysis for management judgment

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Paul

    2004-01-01

    Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity. George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making a

  5. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the other parameters are less important. A two-stage process was used to evaluate the optimal field activities. For all of the field activities combined there were five activities that were found to be "optimal" in terms of uncertainty reduction per unit cost: two-well, natural-gradient, energy budget, and single-well tracer tests, and the vadose zone modeling. A subset of the field activities was chosen such that there would be no duplication in parameter characterization. Of this subset, the vadose zone model, barometric test, energy budget, and the two-well tracer test were found to be optimal for the peak breakthrough time metric, while the single-well tracer test and the hydraulic head measurements are also considered optimal for the peak concentration metric. The environmental tracer activity was not found to be optimal, yet this activity may provide additional information on the transport system. Care must be taken in using this analysis to design a field characterization plan, as many assumptions were required in the analysis. First, many subjective assumptions were required to assess the reliability of the field activities in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty in the mean parameters. Actual field characterization may not result in the same reduction in model output uncertainty as estimated by this analysis. Second, this analysis focused on the reduction in model uncertainty due to the reduction in the uncertainty in the mean parameters. If the uncertainty in the mean parameters is reduced to zero, there still exists uncertainty in the natural heterogeneity that can never be reduced to zero. Therefore, this analysis should be used in combination with expert judgement when designing a field characterization strategy.

  6. Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiang-Jiang; Jing, You-Yin; Zhang, Chun-Fa; Zhao, Jun-Hong [School of Energy and Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei Province 071003 (China)

    2009-12-15

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have become increasingly popular in decision-making for sustainable energy because of the multi-dimensionality of the sustainability goal and the complexity of socio-economic and biophysical systems. This article reviewed the corresponding methods in different stages of multi-criteria decision-making for sustainable energy, i.e., criteria selection, criteria weighting, evaluation, and final aggregation. The criteria of energy supply systems are summarized from technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. The weighting methods of criteria are classified into three categories: subjective weighting, objective weighting and combination weighting methods. Several methods based on weighted sum, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy set methodology and their combinations are employed for energy decision-making. It is observed that the investment cost locates the first place in all evaluation criteria and CO{sub 2} emission follows closely because of more focuses on environment protection, equal criteria weights are still the most popular weighting method, analytical hierarchy process is the most popular comprehensive MCDA method, and the aggregation methods are helpful to get the rational result in sustainable energy decision-making. (author)

  7. Applying Bayesian decision theory to assess reprocessing economic and social cost-benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian decision theory, combined with conventional systems analysis techniques into the discipline called decision analysis, has been applied in this work to assess economic and social cost-benefits associated with reprocessing nuclear fuel. Particular attention in this paper is given to the models which have been developed to place numerical estimates in dollar terms on the three categories of social risks that have been identified with reprocessing. These categories include: (1) health, environment, and safety, (2) diversion of fissile material, including sabotage, terrorist acts, and subnational diversion, and (3) nuclear proliferation, defined to be a diversion at the national level to obtain weapons capability. The emphasis is placed on the third category, as proliferation risk has not been treated elsewhere in a quantitative fashion; most arguments have in the main been qualitative conjectures put forth by political scientists

  8. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  9. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  10. Dubious economic advice: the 'decision' on Sizewell B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Consent was given for the construction of the Sizewell B nuclear power station in March 1987. This was in spite of objections that the conditions had changed between then and the end of the public inquiry in 1985. In particular, the economic analysis of the Department of Energy was that there was only one chance in seven that a coal-fired station would provide new capacity at lower cost than Sizewell-B. Independent verifiable calculations show this to be incorrect, partly because it was based on an error made in the calculations of the Inquiry report. The figures are recalculated. It is concluded that there is no longer an economic case for building Sizewell-B ahead of capacity need as was claimed at the Sizewell Inquiry. Various other conclusions are also drawn. (U.K.)

  11. A multi-criteria decision analysis tool to support electricity

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Fernando, ed. lit.; Ferreira, Paula Varandas; Araújo, Maria Madalena Teixeira de

    2012-01-01

    A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool was designed to support the evaluation of different electricity production scenarios. The MCDA tool is implemented in Excel worksheet and uses information obtained from a mixed integer optimization model. Given the input, the MCDA allowed ranking different scenarios relying on their performance on 13 criteria covering economic, job market, quality of life of local populations, technical and environmental issues. The criteria were weighte...

  12. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. T...

  13. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    OpenAIRE

    Sanfey Alan G; Scheres Anouk

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension th...

  14. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    OpenAIRE

    Karjalainen, T.P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; R. Eskelinen; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of part...

  15. Economic analysis of non-taxed commercial solar hot water systems and combined heating and hot water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-09-01

    An economic analysis of nontaxed commercial solar systems is presented. A realistic evaluation of current cost effectiveness of nontaxed commercial solar energy systems is provided. Economic considerations involved in the decisions to invest in a solar system are described. Easy to use tools to make rational decisions regarding economic viability of nontaxed commercial solar energy systems in a particular application are outlined.

  16. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

    2009-05-01

    This study develops a social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning. This framework consists of four parts which are to spatially identify the grades on hydrological vulnerability (potential streamflow depletion and potential water quality deterioration), to evaluate the monetary values of improvements on hydrological vulnerability grades using the choice experiment method, to derive an alternative evaluation index (AEI) to quantify the effectiveness of all alternatives, and to combine the derived willingness-to-pays (WTPs) with the AEI and do the cost-benefit analysis of feasible alternatives. This framework includes the stakeholder participation in order to quantify the preferences with regard to management objectives (water quantity and quality) and WTPs of alternatives. Finally, the economic values of each alternative can be estimated by this study which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability grades with the AEI. The proposed procedure is applied in the Anyangcheon watershed which has been highly urbanized for past thirty years. As a result, WTPs are 0.24~10.08/month-household for water quantity and 0.80~8.60/month-household for water quality and residents of the five regions among six have higher WTPs for water quality improvement. Finally, since three of ten alternatives have BC>0, they can be proposed to the decision makers. This systematic screening procedure will provide decision makers with the flexibility to obtain stakeholders' consensus for water resources planning.

  17. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Elke U. Weber

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  18. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    OpenAIRE

    Ion ISTUDOR; Luminita DUTA

    2010-01-01

    Decision Support Systems (DSS) form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the syst...

  19. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ?50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  20. Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

  1. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does not have unlimited economic resources. Thus it is necessary to prioritise between the many projects and initiatives which are being discussed in the public sector. In order to conduct such a comprehensive prioritisation (across different sectors or within the same sector) it is a precondition that a systematic evaluation of the projects/proposals/initiatives’ advantages and disadvantages is carried out. For many years cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been used as the main tool for the purpose of economic comparison not only in Denmark but also in many other countries around the world. Investment projects that have been prepared thoroughly and evaluated to have a high socio-economic return seem to be able to obtain political acceptance more easily than projects that have not been evaluated through this type of assessment. On the other hand socio-economic assessments can also be used to turn down projects that do not show a satisfactory return. In the political prioritisation process other considerations of a political, environmental or economic character may influence the decision making. Some of these are not traditionally a part of the socioeconomic assessment, but are instead used as a supplement in the final decision phase. The socioeconomic assessment strives towards valuing all advantages and disadvantages of a project. On the background of this the project’s value for the society is calculated. This value can afterwards be compared to the values for other projects. The socio-economic appraisal is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning related tasks.

  2. Economic Decisions for Others: An Exception to Loss Aversion Law

    OpenAIRE

    Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

    2014-01-01

    In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another...

  3. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  4. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  5. Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Doan, A.; Haddawy, P.; Kahn, C. E.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines t...

  6. Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Teubner, Timm

    2013-01-01

    This work considers economic decision making, particularly scenarios in which the decision maker faces the presence of other (private) persons. It draws inferences for the design, operation, and use of e-commerce platforms from an economic and information systems perspective and is oriented along two vital concepts therein: social preferences and risk. The role of the type as well as the relation towards the reference person is explored from an empirical and game theoretical perspective.

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range of impacts of also a strategic character (van Exel et al., 2002). Accordingly, appraisal methodologies are undergoing substantial changes in order to deal with the developments (Vickerman, 2000) that are varying from country to country and leading to different approaches (Banister and Berechman, 2000). It is, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport infrastructure project is for this reason required. An appropriate ex-ante evaluation method for such projects can be based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Tsamboulas, 2007. Vreeker et al. 2002), which in most cases canbe combined with a CBA (Leleur, 2000). Scanning the literature (Belton and Stewart, 2002; Goodwin and Wright, 2009; Keeney and Raiffa, 1993; von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986) it is found that the use of MCDA in the decision process usually provides some or all of the following features: 1. Improvement of the satisfaction with the decision process 2. Improvement of the quality of the decision itself 3. Increased productivity of the decision-makers MCDA can in this respect be seen as a tool for appraisal of different alternatives, when several points of view and priorities are taken into account to produce a common output. Hence, it is very useful during the formulation of a decision support system (DSS) designed to deal with complex issues. The literature on DSS is extensive, providing a sound basis for the methodologies employed and the mathematics involved. Moreover, there are numerous systems covering several disciplines, policy contexts and users’ needs for specific application environments (Janic, 2003; Salling et al., 2007; Tsamboulas and Mikroudis, 2006). The use of DSS for solving MCDA problems has among others been treated by Barfod (2012), Chen et al. (2008) and Larichev et al. (2002), where it is shown that a DSS can effectively support a decision making process making use of appropriate MCDA methodologies.

  8. Analysis of threats to economic security of Lithuania

    OpenAIRE

    Grebliauskas, Art?ras

    2003-01-01

    With reference to research as well as legal and statistical data, this article offers an interpretation of the "security" concept, perception of country's security, and analysis of drafting a national security strategy. It also highlights constituent parts of a national security strategy and an economic security strategy within the context of national strategies. Moreover, it shows how decisions (both operational and strategic) that are made within the context of national strategies depend on...

  9. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  10. Health system re-engineering: a CPRS economic decision model.

    OpenAIRE

    Diehl, M.

    1995-01-01

    The fundamental problem with the health care delivery system remains too little health delivered for too great a cost. Information essential to sound clinical and administrative decision making is too frequently missing at the time and place of decision. Automated systems offer opportunities both to improve health and to reduce cost through effective and efficient information management. Information systems are the enabling technology for those business practice changes which improve the bene...

  11. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth; Møgelvang-Hansen, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products ...

  12. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  13. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  14. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Simmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  15. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decisions in people with obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmank, Jakob; Murawski, Carsten; Bode, Stefan; Horstmann, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n = 52) completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discount rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before making financial decisions. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity toward changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short. PMID:26528158

  16. Heartbeat and Economic Decisions: Observing Mental Stress among Proposers and Responders in the Ultimatum Bargaining Game

    OpenAIRE

    Dulleck, Uwe; Schaffner, Markus; Torgler, Benno

    2014-01-01

    The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics lab...

  17. Cognitive Control and Individual Differences in Economic Ultimatum Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    De Neys, Wim; Novitskiy, Nikolay; Geeraerts, Leen; Ramautar, Jennifer; Wagemans, Johan

    2011-01-01

    Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responder...

  18. Toward the integration of personality theory and decision theory in the explanation of economic and health behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Rustichini, Aldo; DeYoung, Colin G.; Anderson, Jon; Burks, Stephen V.

    2012-01-01

    Trait-based personality psychology and economics have taken different approaches to understanding individual differences, with the former emphasizing variables derived from the factor analysis of trait assessments, and the latter emphasizing variables derived from formal decision theory. In a data set on trainee truckers in a large US company, we provide a systematic initial assessment of the empirical pattern of relationships between the elements from these two approaches by comparing the pr...

  19. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

  20. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  1. Economic analysis for ecosystem service assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Mace, Georgina; Fezzi, Carlo; Atkinson, Giles; Turner, Kerry

    2010-01-01

    The paper seeks to contribute to the expanding literature on ecosystem service assessment by considering its integration with economic analyses of such services. Focussing upon analyses for future orientated policy and decision making, we initially consider a single period during which ecological stocks are maintained at sustainable levels. The flow of ecosystems services and their contribution to welfare bearing goods is considered and methods for valuing resultant benefits are reviewed and ...

  2. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

  3. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  4. Decision making and economic performance of flower producers

    OpenAIRE

    Trip, G.

    2000-01-01

    Within Dutch agriculture, greenhouse horticulture stands out as a growing and innovative sector. In such circumstances of growth and innovation, one would expect a fast development of management support systems. However, apart from climate control, the role of computerized support systems for management purposes (planning/evaluation) is still very limited. The purpose of this study is get insight into the decision-making processes of greenhouse growers. A group of 26 specialized, comparable c...

  5. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    OpenAIRE

    Shapiro, Jacob N.

    2012-01-01

    Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other time...

  6. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  7. Review of The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research

    OpenAIRE

    Breese, Jack

    1988-01-01

    This review examines two important works in decision analysis: Howard and Matheson's The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, and Winterfeldt and Edwards's "Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.

  8. Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

  9. Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to il...

  10. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  11. Irrational Economic Decision-Making after Ventromedial Prefrontal Damage: Evidence from the Ultimatum Game

    OpenAIRE

    Koenigs, Michael; TRANEL, DANIEL

    2007-01-01

    Emotion regulation is often critical for adaptive decision making. Here, we investigate whether emotion regulation defects following focal prefrontal brain damage are associated with exceptionally irrational economic decision making in situations of unfair treatment. In the Ultimatum Game, two players are given one opportunity to split a sum of money. One player (the proposer) offers a portion of the money to the second player (the responder) and keeps the rest. The responder can either accep...

  12. The economic costs of court decisions concerning dismissals in Japan: Identification by judge transfers

    OpenAIRE

    Okudaira, Hiroko

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to detect the degree to which court decisions control the stringency of employment protection and to investigate how such judicial discretion affects labor market performance. However, identification difficulty arises because court decisions are volatile against economic and social conditions. This paper overcomes the endogeneity problem by exploiting the triennial judge transfer system in Japan, or the exogenous allocation of judges to prefectures. A key finding is ...

  13. Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: A neuropsychological approach

    OpenAIRE

    Koscik, Timothy R; TRANEL, DANIEL

    2013-01-01

    People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, e.g., a person’s constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, e.g., luck or coincidence. This is known as the ‘correspondence bias.’ This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to ...

  14. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size under stochastic demand

    OpenAIRE

    PK Mubiru

    2010-01-01

    Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL) size in manufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic review production-inventory system under stochastic demand. Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of...

  15. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChristopherSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  16. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  17. Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

    2010-01-01

    To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's ...

  18. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  20. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nai-gen ZHANG

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available
    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
    Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
    Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
    Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology

  2. Economic analysis of EBT reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, J.T.; Uckan, N.A.; Lidsky, L.M.

    1977-01-01

    In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors.

  3. Fractional State Space Analysis of Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS method and state space portrait (SSP analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

  4. What is economic personalism? A phenomenological analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zuniga, Gloria L.

    2001-01-01

    Much like phenomenology, the philosophical movement of economic personalism has preceded its complete and clear awareness of itself as a philosophical position. This paper attempts to articulate what exactly this position is by employing realist phenomenology as its analytical tool. The organization of this paper consists of three parts. The first is a linguistic analysis of the names 'economics' and 'personalism' that attempts to arrive at a joint meaning of these terms. The second is a regr...

  5. Heartbeat and economic decisions: observing mental stress among proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulleck, Uwe; Schaffner, Markus; Torgler, Benno

    2014-01-01

    The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum. PMID:25247817

  6. Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Brosch

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

  7. Introduction to Land Use Decision Making Kit and Economics of Land Use. [2 Units].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakonsen, Harry O., Ed.; Schaefer, Larry, Ed.

    Included in this set of materials are two units: (1) Introduction to Land Use Decision Making Kit, and (2) Economics of Land Use. Each unit includes student guide sheets, reference material, and tape script. A set of 35mm slides and audiotapes are usually used with the materials. The introductory unit provides an overview of land use and suggested…

  8. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  9. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  10. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongjun Yu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  11. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  12. Use of risk analysis in safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evaluation of risks from a major energy system such as coal, nuclear and oil is receiving increasing attention. However, the best use of risk results in safety decisions must take into consideration many factors and still unresolved limitations. For example the different kinds of risks, the time periods when risk is manifested, occupational risks versus public risks, comparability of risk results, assessment of uncertainties and completeness. Even when the uncertainties are adequately assessed, methods for including them in quantitative comparisons are not well formulated. Likewise the uncertainty problem may prevent valid conclusions regarding the relative ranking of significant contributors to risk. In addition insights based on risk analysis performed on a global or national basis can significantly deviate the conclusions of a site specific analysis. Based on the results of a comparative study of risks of energy from coal, oil, gas, LWR, and solar power (STEC-system) this paper will explore the sensitivity of the results to the various parameters describing the risks and the limitations of the conclusions which can be drawn. The paper also suggests that it is more useful for societal decisions to incorporate risk analyses into cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effectiveness analysis allows identification of those energy systems and areas within an energy system where a given expenditure will produce the greatest reduction in risk. This is facilitated by the fact that risks cannot be reduced to zero and each incremental reduction in risk costs increasingly more. This paper will also suggest that there is a limit to continually reducing the risk because excessive expenditures on risk reduction will actually increase the risk to society. The paper will identify and investigate parameters which the results of cost-effectiveness studies are sensitive to

  13. Decision and decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use ...

  14. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process. Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced laying the foundation with different case examples ranging from road, rail to air transport projects. Two major concerns in building the assessment model, CBA-DK, are to bring informed decision support to the decision-makers and to specify relevant probability distribution functions to feed into the Monte Carlo simulation, being the technique behind the quantitative risk analysis of CBA-DK. The informed decision support is dealt with by a set of resulting accumulated descending graphs (ADG) which makes it possible for decision-makers to come to terms with their risk aversion given a specific decision task. ADG depicts the decision-makers risk aversion towards a specific assessment task, i.e. by illustrating probabilities of an infeasible socio-economic rate of return. To perform informed decision support as proposed by ADG it is necessary to determine a set of suitable probability distributions. This selection process has been conducted among others by literature studies, conference and seminar attendances and substantial amount of tests within CBA-DK. Currently, the model is made up by five different distributions furtherdivided into two groups of non-parametric and parametric functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects.

  15. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  17. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

  18. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs. PMID:22191941

  19. 78 FR 59648 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-27

    ...place at the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1441 L St. NW., Washington...Analyst, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce...the economics profession, business, and government. This will...Director, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [FR Doc. 2013-23490...

  20. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (...

  1. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, a prototype Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) modeling system. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (...

  2. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ayoola

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria....

  3. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on sediment disturbance, suspension, transport, and deposition in the north central Gulf of Mexico. At least five end user organizations plus the UAHuntsville’s Information Technology and Systems Center and the Geological Survey of Alabama project team, will use the products to improve measurements of water quality (Dauphin Island Sea Lab); assess sedimentation during storm events and its impact on critical coastal habitats (Alabama Department of Conservation); assess sedimentation versus sea level rise in natural marshes (Department of the Interior); and improve understanding of the impact of sediment and sediment deposits on water quality, living resources, and habitats of the estuarine environment (Mobile Bay National Estuary Program); and assess storm surge effects on coastal ecosystems (NOAA Center for Coastal Ocean Research). The products will be managed and accessed through the SANDS Portal, an on-line data repository with a user interface customized to provide data and information for specific storm events. By making multi-spectral satellite products available for multiple common storm events, SANDS will provide end users the opportunity to better analyze, detect, and identify compositions and patterns of suspended sediment and sediment deposits.

  4. A review and classification of approaches for dealing with uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuizen, Henk; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; van Til, Janine A; Hummel, J Marjan; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2015-05-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45% of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15%), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31%), Bayesian framework (6%), and grey theory (3%). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31%). Only 3% of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneously. PMID:25630758

  5. Economic analysis of Indian pumped storage schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • We analyzed economic aspects of pumped storage schemes in India. • We analyzed various costs involved in pumped storage operation in India. • We analyzed the techno-economic benefits of Kadamparai pumped storage plant. • Results show pumped storage operation in India is economically justifiable. - Abstract: Pumped-hydro energy storage schemes (PHES) are developed for improving the net efficiency of the base load thermal power plants. These schemes are operated only at times of peak demand and during major power plant outages. In India, the first pumped storage plant was commissioned during 1985 and till today eleven plants with on aggregate installed capacity of 4804 MW have been in operation. However all these plants up to the year 2003 have generated energy less than the projected figures. The major reason for less output from the PHES in India, than that envisaged in the planning stage is deficit of off-peak power availability for pumping operation in almost all the regional power grids except north-eastern grid. But gradual increase in efficiency has been realized from PHES operation after introduction of the availability based tariff (ABT) in 2003. Further, the increase in peak power demand, requirement of spinning reserve, increased generation from renewable energy sources have singly and combinedly triggered the necessity for installation of more pumped storage schemes in the country. Under these circumstances, this analysis addresses the economics of pumped storage schemes in India with special reference to Kadamparai PHES. Various costs involved in pumped storage operation are analyzed in the Indian context. The case study reveals considerable techno-economic benefits obtained by more operational hours of the PHES in the state grid after 2003. The analysis and results would be useful for investors and researchers to understand the economics of Indian pumped storage schemes

  6. Development and description of a decision analysis based decision support tool for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation

    OpenAIRE

    Thomson, R.; Robinson, A.; Greenaway, J; LOWE, P.

    2002-01-01

    Background: There is an increasing move towards clinical decision making that engages the patient, which has led to the development and use of decision aids to support better decisions. The treatment of patients in atrial fibrillation (AF) with warfarin to prevent stroke is a decision that is sensitive to patient preferences as shown by a previous decision analysis.

  7. Spend more today: Using behavioural economics to improve retirement expenditure decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Blake, David; Boardman, Tom

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how behavioural economics can be used to improve the expenditure decisions of retirees. It identifies how accumulated assets can be used optimally throughout retirement to produce life-long income when required, to make provision for contingencies – such as unanticipated spikes in expenditure – and to optimize the size and timing of bequests. We do this using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan which employs defaults with...

  8. How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: financial literacy and retirement readiness

    OpenAIRE

    Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers' efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced finan...

  9. A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods.A sys...

  10. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision proc...

  11. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  12. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  13. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS OF QUALITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sailaj

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In modern industries, much emphasis is given to quality as it is the most effective tool which can capture, retain and enlarge customer base. The customer satisfaction is the ultimate goal of business and no other strategy can achieve it other than attaining best quality. An improvement in quality enhances customer satisfaction, taper s manufacturing costs and of course in turn, increases productivity. But in business scenario, improving quality should be considered along with the expenses associated with it. The strategy should be to achieve high Quality in a most economic way. So identifying effective methods for the analysis of economics behind quality and reduction of costs associated with achieving quality is a serious potential management problem and should be looked in to and analyzed. Economics of Quality analysis which is also termed as cost of quality or quality cost analysis has emerged as a powerful management tool for assessing the present quality level of the organization and to identify the improvement opportunities and also supports in decision making. This paper presents a study on quality cost analysis of two manufacturing units and tries to analyze the interrelationships between quality cost categories using statistical methods. The secondary data collected from the financial records of two firms under manufacturing sector is used for this analysis. The Pearson product momentum correlation coefficient between different quality cost categories provides insight to the relationships between different quality cost elements and in turn helps management to set action priorities to be addressed to achieve good quality at lower cost. The regression analysis helps the management in estimation or prediction of the unknown value of one variable from the known value of the other variable.

  14. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

  15. Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Baddeley, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour ...

  16. Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

  17. Social economic decision-making across the lifespan: An fMRI investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlé, Katia M; Sanfey, Alan G

    2012-06-01

    Recent research in neuroeconomics suggests that social economic decision-making may be best understood as a dual-systems process, integrating the influence of deliberative and affective subsystems. However, most of this research has focused on young adults and it remains unclear whether our current models extend to healthy aging. To address this question, we investigated the behavioral and neural basis of simple economic decisions in 18 young and 20 older healthy adults. Participants made decisions which involved accepting or rejecting monetary offers from human and non-human (computer) partners in an Ultimatum Game, while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The partners' proposals involved splitting an amount of money between the two players, and ranged from $1 to $5 (from a $10 pot). Relative to young adults, older participants expected more equitable offers and rejected moderately unfair offers ($3) to a larger extent. Imaging results revealed that, relative to young participants, older adults had higher activations in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) when receiving unfair offers ($1-$3). Age group moderated the relationship between left DLPFC activation and acceptance rates of unfair offers. In contrast, older adults showed lower activation of bilateral anterior insula in response to unfair offers. No age group difference was observed when participants received fair ($5) offers. These findings suggest that healthy aging may be associated with a stronger reliance on computational areas subserving goal maintenance and rule shifting (DLPFC) during interactive economic decision-making. Consistent with a well-documented "positivity effect", older age may also decrease recruitment of areas involved in emotion processing and integration (anterior insula) in the face of social norm violation. PMID:22414593

  18. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  19. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  20. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  1. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  2. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

  3. A Speech Act Analysis of Judicial Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Bernal, Carlos L.

    2007-01-01

    According to the theory of speech acts, speech is a kind of action. He, who says something, does something. Certainly, when a judge or a court makes a decision, he or it says something. He performs some (locutionary) acts like uttering or writing some sentences. However, there is something further he does, namely, by uttering or writing some sentences in the appropriate context, he makes a judicial decision. In a judicial decision the judge says something about the law, the facts of the case,...

  4. Selective increase of intention-based economic decisions by noninvasive brain stimulation to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nihonsugi, Tsuyoshi; Ihara, Aya; Haruno, Masahiko

    2015-02-25

    The intention behind another's action and the impact of the outcome are major determinants of human economic behavior. It is poorly understood, however, whether the two systems share a core neural computation. Here, we investigated whether the two systems are causally dissociable in the brain by integrating computational modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and transcranial direct current stimulation experiments in a newly developed trust game task. We show not only that right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) activity is correlated with intention-based economic decisions and that ventral striatum and amygdala activity are correlated with outcome-based decisions, but also that stimulation to the DLPFC selectively enhances intention-based decisions. These findings suggest that the right DLPFC is involved in the implementation of intention-based decisions in the processing of cooperative decisions. This causal dissociation of cortical and subcortical backgrounds may indicate evolutionary and developmental differences in the two decision systems. PMID:25716841

  5. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical.

  6. Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias / Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Ludy A, Parada-Vargas; Alejandra, Taborda-Restrepo.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos [...] empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales. Abstract in english Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construct [...] ion of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

  7. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  8. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  9. Behavioral economic decision making and alcohol-related sexual risk behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKillop, James; Celio, Mark A; Mastroleo, Nadine R; Kahler, Christopher W; Operario, Don; Colby, Suzanne M; Barnett, Nancy P; Monti, Peter M

    2015-03-01

    The discipline of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics to systematically characterize decision-making preferences. Two forms of behavioral economic decision making are of relevance to HIV risk behavior: delay discounting, reflecting preferences for immediate small rewards relative to larger delayed rewards (i.e., immediate gratification), and probability discounting, reflecting preferences for larger probabilistic rewards relative to smaller guaranteed rewards (i.e., risk sensitivity). This study examined questionnaire-based indices of both types of discounting in relation to sexual risk taking in an emergency department sample of hazardous drinkers who engage in risky sexual behavior. More impulsive delay discounting was significantly associated with increased sexual risk-taking during a drinking episode, but not general sexual risk-taking. Probability discounting was not associated with either form of sexual risk-taking. These findings implicate impulsive delay discounting with sexual risk taking during alcohol intoxication and provide further support for applying this approach to HIV risk behavior. PMID:25267115

  10. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold

  11. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc.

  12. The meaning of the virtual Midas touch: an ERP study in economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spapé, Michiel M; Hoggan, Eve E; Jacucci, Giulio; Ravaja, Niklas

    2015-03-01

    The Midas touch refers to the altruistic effects of a brief touch. Though these effects have often been replicated, they remain poorly understood. We investigate the psychophysiology of the effect using remotely transmitted, precisely timed, tactile messages in an economic decision-making game called Ultimatum. Participants were more likely to accept offers after receiving a remotely transmitted touch. Furthermore, we found distinct effects of touch on event-related potentials evoked by (a) feedback regarding accepted and rejected offers, (b) decision cues related to proposals, and (c) the haptic and auditory cues themselves. In each case, a late positive effect of touch was observed and related to the P3. Given the role of the P3 in memory-related functions, the results indicate an indirect relationship between touch and generosity that relies on memory. This hypothesis was further tested and confirmed in the positive effects of touch on later proposals. PMID:25265874

  13. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  14. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  15. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  16. An economic spreadsheet model to determine optimal breeding and replacement decisions for dairy cattle

    OpenAIRE

    Groenendaal, H.; Galligan, D. T.; Mulder, H. A.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe a user-friendly spreadsheet culling model that was constructed to support economical, optimal breeding and replacement decisions on dairy farms. The model was based on the marginal net revenue technique. Inputs for the model can be entered for specific farm conditions, and the output is easily accessible. In the model, the retention pay-off (RPO) value of individual dairy cows was calculated. The RPO value of a cow is equal to the total additional profits ...

  17. Factors affecting location decisions of the economic headliners - exporters and foreign-owned firms - in China

    OpenAIRE

    Trofimenko, Natalia

    2010-01-01

    Foreign-owned firms are frequently viewed as an important source of new capital, access to world markets and employment generation and there exist numerous studies on the determinants of FDI flows and the role of incentives designed to attract FDI. Similarly important for economic growth are exporters, yet the factors that play a role in their location decisions have not been identified. Using a data set of 1,409 firms in China who report, among other things, why they have chosen a particular...

  18. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis

  19. Bayesian analysis: an objective, scientific approach to better decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, H

    1999-01-01

    An important responsibility for managers is to see that good decisions are made, which includes training other decision makers in how to make them. In our rapidly changing health-care environment, it is important that the best decisions be made based on cost-effectiveness (tests we perform or outsource), productivity (employees we hire), service quality (how we organize services), technology (equipment and methods we purchase), and outcomes (what we accomplish for patients). A decision analysis method is described that uses an objective, scientific approach to decision making. Bayesian analysis is a statistical method that allows researchers (decision makers) to take into account data as well as prior beliefs to calculate the probability that an alternative (decision, treatment) is superior. Developing criteria, prior rating, of options, and calculating assessments and final assessment are included in the analysis. An example is provided to show how our laboratory compared routine hematology automation alternatives (automated cell counter, automated microscope, and automated flow cytometry cell counter) using the Bayesian analytical technique. Discussion follows related to how the technique is effective in managing team decisions by allowing different opinions, past experiences, and beliefs to be expressed and evaluated. PMID:10557877

  20. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayoola

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria. Farming experience was significant at one percent; labor and capital were significant at five percent; while age of farmer, level of literacy and farm size were not significant. It was concluded that those policies that targeted increasing a coffee farmer’s access to technical skills, capital, labor and market information would help to facilitate improved management of a coffee farm leading to increased output and income without necessarily increasing farm size.

  1. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis -- The Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) generated this dataset...

  2. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Daniela Cristina Solomon; Iulia Andreea Bucur

    2014-01-01

    Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that ...

  3. Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrgott, Matthias; Greco, Salvatore

    2010-01-01

    Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents r

  4. Epistemological Analysis of Decision Making -An Application to Trust

    OpenAIRE

    Calmet, Jacques; Maret, Pierre; Schneider, Marvin

    2014-01-01

    Decision-making systems based upon multi-agent technology have epistemological implications that are seldom acknowledged. We provide a simple analysis arising from the method, inspired by theorem proving, we have designed along the years. We also specify the link with Web 3.0. The results of this analysis are applied to a new approach to trust making use of securitization. An important consequence of such an approach is to emphasize the interdisciplinary features of decision support systems.

  5. Economic evaluation as a decision-making tool in health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araja D.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available For the assessment of the health care system efficiency result-oriented indicators should be exploited much more actively as without specific indicators oriented to the evaluation of the patient’s health outcomes it is impossible to acquire reasonable evidence for the effectiveness of the functioning of the health care system that has the decisive role for further decisions in the age of the evidence-based medicine. The main groups of the treatment results’ indicators are clinical, economic and patient-reported outcomes (PROs, and all these groups of outcomes should be considered to make the most objective economic evaluation. This research has been determined to investigate applying of PROs as a relatively new tool in evaluation of the health care in Latvia. The results of the scientific publications review show that the positive trend in using of the PROs in Latvia is observed, but the involvement of patients in treatment’ process assessment is not enough active yet. The relevant problems and possible suggestions for improvement of this process are discussed in the article.

  6. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6) the economic framework. Our modeling framework began with the identification of factors that influence spatial and temporal changes in riparian vegetation on the two rivers. The linked modeling framework was then employed for making spatial predictions of the changes in presence of surface water, vegetation change, and avian populations in both river systems. An overview of the overall project will be provided, with lessons learned, and initial valuation survey results.

  7. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

  8. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-10-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gender, age, years of education, and years driving. The groups were compared on the extent to which they discounted, or devalued, delayed hypothetical monetary rewards using a delay-discounting task. In this task, students made repeated choices between $1000 available after a delay (ranging from 1 week to 10 years) and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the students who frequently text while driving discounted delayed rewards at a greater rate than the matched control students. The study supports the conclusions that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice made by drivers, and that a behavioral economic approach may be a useful research tool for investigating the decision-making processes underlying risky behaviors. PMID:26280804

  9. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  10. The Economics of Pricing and Customer Decision-Making. Research Notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Debra J.

    1996-01-01

    Reviews two research articles. Gratton and Taylor, using economic analysis and market research, found that consumers of leisure experiences complained about price increases, but continued consuming. They recommend discounts for those in need and price increases focusing on service quality. Greenleaf and Lehmann identified 11 reasons why people…

  11. Advancing school-based interventions through economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis within school-based prevention remains cursory. Largely, economic analyses of school-based prevention efforts are undertaken as secondary research. This limits these efforts to data that have been collected previously as part of epidemiological and outcomes research. Therefore, economic analyses suffer from gaps in the knowledge generated by these studies. This chapter addresses the importance of economic analysis for the future of school-based substance abuse prevention programs and highlights the role of prevention research in the development of knowledge that can be used for economic analysis. PMID:24753283

  12. Applying Economic Principles to Outcomes Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shauver, Melissa J.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. The types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized.

  13. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  14. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  15. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  16. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine.

  17. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  18. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  19. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process. Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net presen...

  20. A Missing Link in Behavioural Economics? A Portmanteau Experiment on the Relevance of Individual Decision Anomalies for Households.

    OpenAIRE

    Munro, Alistair; Popov, Danail

    2009-01-01

    Although households are responsible for many important decisions, they have rarely been the subject of economics experiments. We conduct a series of linked and incentivized experiments on decision-making, designed to see if the anomalies typically found in individual choice experiments are found when the subjects are couples from long-term relationships. Specifically we investigate the endowment effect, the compromise effect, asymmetric dominance and the ‘more is less’ phenomena. Comparing th...

  1. Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

  2. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  3. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  4. Cost-effectiveness analysis and formulary decision making in England: findings from research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Iestyn P; Bryan, Stirling

    2007-11-01

    In a context of rapid technological advances in health care and increasing demand for expensive treatments, local formulary committees are key players in the management of scarce resources. However, little is known about the information and processes used when making decisions on the inclusion of new treatments. This paper reports research on the use of economic evaluations in technology coverage decisions in England, although the findings have a relevance to other health care systems with devolved responsibility for resource allocation. It reports a study of four local formulary committees in which both qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Our main research finding is that it is an exception for cost-effectiveness analysis to inform technology coverage decisions. Barriers to use include access and expertise levels, concerns relating to the independence of analyses and problems with implementation of study recommendations. Further barriers derive from the constraints on decision makers, a lack of clarity over functions and aims of local committees, and the challenge of disinvestment in medical technologies. The relative weakness of the research-practice dynamics in this context suggests the need for a rethinking of the role of both analysts and decision makers. Our research supports the view that in order to be useful, analysis needs to better reflect the constraints of the local decision-making environment. We also recommend that local decision-making committees and bodies in the National Health Service more clearly identify the 'problems' which they are charged with solving and how their outputs contribute to broader finance and commissioning functions. This would help to establish the ways in which the routine use of cost-effectiveness analysis might become a reality. PMID:17698271

  5. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  7. Diets and Health: How Food Decisions Are Shaped by Biology, Economics, Geography, and Social Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewnowski, Adam; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Health is shaped by both personal choices and features of the food environment. Food-choice decisions depend on complex interactions between biology and behavior, and are further modulated by the built environment and community structure. That lower-income families have lower-quality diets is well established. Yet, diet quality also varies across small geographic neighborhoods and can be influenced by transportation, retail, and ease of access to healthy foods, as well as by attitudes, beliefs, and social interactions. The learnings from the Seattle Obesity Study (SOS II) can be usefully applied to the much larger, more complex, and far more socially and ethnically diverse urban environment of New York City. The Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP) is ideally positioned to advance the understanding of health disparities by exploring the multiple underpinnings of food decision making. By combining geo-localized food shopping and consumption data with health behaviors, diet quality measures, and biomarkers, also coded by geographic location, the KHP will create the first-of-its-kind bio-behavioral, economic, and cultural atlas of diet quality and health for New York City.

  8. Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails. PMID:26102185

  9. Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management

    OpenAIRE

    Kuzemin, Alexander; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav

    2008-01-01

    The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are considered. The basis of the generalized analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in economic systems is offered.

  10. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  11. An Economic Analysis of Security Policies

    OpenAIRE

    Brück, Tilman

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key public policy trade-offs are outlined, in particular between se...

  12. Prescribed physical activity. A health economic analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Romé, Åsa

    2014-01-01

    The overall aim of this thesis was to estimate health economic consequences of the four-month primary care program ”Physical Activity on Prescription (PAP)”. Inactivity means a highly increased independent risk factor for public health diseases and morbidity, and is an economic burden to society. Evidence for cost effective interventions aiming at increasing physical activity (PA) level among inactive individuals is limited, why health economic evaluations are an important tool when arranging...

  13. Choice & Consequence : Exploratory Data analysis for Critical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    2015-01-01

    To move toward environmental sustainability, we propose that a computational approach may be needed due to the complexity of resource production and consumption. While digital sensors and predictive simulation has the potential to help us to minimize resource consumption, the indirect relation between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization to support hypothesis generation, hypothesis testing, and decision making. In addition to sensors in buildings, infrastructure, or the environment, we also propose the instrumentation of user interfaces to help measure performance in decision making applications. We show the benefits of applying principles of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions.

  14. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  15. ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

  16. Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decisionmaking framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients

    OpenAIRE

    Grégoire Jean-Pierre; Rindress Donna; Khoury Hanane; Wagner Monika; Goetghebeur Mireille M; Deal Cheri

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Objectives To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH) for Turner syndrome (TS) as a complex case study. Methods The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics), with a qualitative tool including six ethical and he...

  17. Economic factorial analysis: general theory and original approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Chebotarev Sergei

    2003-01-01

    This research work is about the methodology of economic factorial analysis, which is an actual instrument for the analysis of different economic and technological models. The acceptance of control solutions becomes the result of model?s study in this case. This fact defines the importance of this unit for the analysis of systems. It is possible to realise the different numerical experiments on simulation of different processes and their following analysis using the methods received in the cou...

  18. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  19. Business Conditions and Economic Analysis: An Experiential Learning Program for Economics Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Robert C.; Stevens, Jerry L.

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the Business Conditions and Economic Analysis (BCEA) program developed at the University of Richmond. The BCEA program is an experiential learning format for economics students built on the success of student-managed investment funds (SMIF) in finance. In its initial implementation, the BCEA group conducts domestic and global…

  20. Cost/benefit analysis and capital investment decisions in nuclear cardiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotlyarov, E V; Schniederjans, M J

    1983-01-01

    This paper demonstrates an application of Cost-Benefit Analysis as an aid in capital investment medical decision making. Specifically, a cost-benefit analysis is used to compare three nuclear cardiology instruments (i.e. Nuclear Stethoscope, Mobile Camera/Computer and Fixed Cardiac Computer). The study examined both non-quantitative and quantitative comparative factors. Results of the study show: (1) Conversion of the non-quantitative factors into a numerical system (via medical opinion) greatly delineates the relative merits of each instrument. (2) Simulating the stochastic economic and equipment utilization factors reveals instrument selection to be a function of patient flow and amortization procedures. (3) Adjusting the quantitative assessment of each instrument by the non-quantitative assessment (via the numerical system) aids in the capital investment decision. PMID:10310215

  1. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O’Brien

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

  2. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  3. Cost-Benefit Analysis: Tools for Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bess, Gary

    2002-01-01

    Suggests that cost-benefit analysis can be a helpful tool for assessing difficult and complex problems in child care facilities. Defines cost-benefit analysis as an approach to determine the most economical way to manage a program, describes how to analyze costs and benefits through hypothetical scenarios, and discusses some of the problems…

  4. Bayesian decision analysis for evaluating management options to promote recovery of a depleted salmon population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pestes, Lynsey R; Peterman, Randall M; Bradford, Michael J; Wood, Chris C

    2008-04-01

    The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives. PMID:18241234

  5. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  6. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Dong-Hong; Wang Jing-Si

    2013-01-01

    In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum ent...

  7. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

  8. A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

    2010-01-01

    To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks. PMID:20821675

  9. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  10. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  11. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems :Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availa...

  12. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fuad M. Kreishan

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between&#...

  13. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  14. Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

  15. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  16. Fundamental Principles of Conducting a Surgery Economic Analysis Study

    OpenAIRE

    Kotsis, Sandra V.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2010-01-01

    Although economic evaluation has become more popular among medical professionals, its use in surgery is still lacking. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. The purpose of this paper, part of a tutorial series on Evidence Based Medicine, will focus on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis.

  17. Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Udude Celina C; Okulegu Bethran Enyim

    2012-01-01

    This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test an...

  18. Measuring economic journals’ citation efficiency: A data envelopment analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos

    2011-01-01

    This paper by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and statistical inference evaluates the citation performance of 229 economic journals. The paper categorizes the journals into four main categories (A to D) based on their efficiency levels. The results are then compared to the 27 “core economic journals” as introduced by Dimond (1989). The results reveal that after more than twenty years Diamonds’ list of “core economic journals” is still valid. Finally, for the first time the paper uses da...

  19. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  20. Site selection for nuclear plants using fuzzy decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuzzy decision analysis is proposed as a method of site selection for nuclear power plants. The opinion of experts is employed to rank the alternatives across a set of criteria. The analyst uses fuzzy numbers to describe the experts' preferences. This approach can handle the situation in the case of unavailability of precise data, which is most commonly the case in site selection. Fuzzy numbers can take into account the imprecision of the factors affecting decision making such as site meteorology, population growth, cooling water availability, etc. Fuzzy ranking is achieved using fuzzy arithmetic and the alternatives are ranked from best to worst. An example is also presented to illustrate the method. (orig.)

  1. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  2. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

  3. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  4. Scientific technical risk analysis and political decision-making processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a precondition for the discussion of the interrelation of risk research and technology-policy decision-making processes one has to concern oneself with the decision-making models used in the discussion on risks. Three such models are described and discussed: a) the model of direct comparison of inherent risks, b) the model discriminating between risk analysis and risk assessment, c) the model of 'risk anatomy' according to W.D. Rowe taking into account the multidimensional character of the term 'risk'. Some typical difficulties of the risk assessment dispute are described in brief. They concern the risk standards, assessment of benefits, risk perception by society, expressed preferences and acceptance of technology-policy decisions. (RF)

  5. Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Héraud, Jean-Alain; Ionescu, Oana

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly radi...

  6. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gnip

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  7. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    OpenAIRE

    P. Gnip; Kafka, S.; J. ?epický; Charvát, K.

    2009-01-01

    The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  8. A multi-attribute decision analysis for decommissioning offshore oil and gas platforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrion, Max; Bernstein, Brock; Swamy, Surya

    2015-10-01

    The 27 oil and gas platforms off the coast of southern California are reaching the end of their economic lives. Because their decommissioning involves large costs and potential environmental impacts, this became an issue of public controversy. As part of a larger policy analysis conducted for the State of California, we implemented a decision analysis as a software tool (PLATFORM) to clarify and evaluate decision strategies against a comprehensive set of objectives. Key options selected for in-depth analysis are complete platform removal and partial removal to 85 feet below the water line, with the remaining structure converted in place to an artificial reef to preserve the rich ecosystems supported by the platform's support structure. PLATFORM was instrumental in structuring and performing key analyses of the impacts of each option (e.g., on costs, fishery production, air emissions) and dramatically improved the team's productivity. Sensitivity analysis found that disagreement about preferences, especially about the relative importance of strict compliance with lease agreements, has much greater effects on the preferred option than does uncertainty about specific outcomes, such as decommissioning costs. It found a near-consensus of stakeholders in support of partial removal and "rigs-to-reefs" program. The project's results played a role in the decision to pass legislation enabling an expanded California "rigs-to-reefs" program that includes a mechanism for sharing cost savings between operators and the state. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2015;X:000-000. © 2015 SETAC. PMID:26415010

  9. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  10. How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koçak, Özgecan; Özcan, Serden

    2013-01-01

    Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

  11. Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SvenjaSimon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  12. Modelos de decisão para avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde / Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Patrícia Coelho de, Soárez; Marta Oliveira, Soares; Hillegonda Maria Dutilh, Novaes.

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available A maioria das avaliações econômicas que participam dos processos de decisão de incorporação e financiamento de tecnologias dos sistemas de saúde utiliza modelos de decisão para avaliar os custos e benefícios das estratégias comparadas. Apesar do grande número de avaliações econômicas conduzidas no B [...] rasil, há necessidade de aprofundamento metodológico sobre os tipos de modelos de decisão e sua aplicabilidade no nosso meio. O objetivo desta revisão de literatura é contribuir para o conhecimento e o uso de modelos de decisão nos contextos nacionais das avaliações econômicas de tecnologias em saúde. Este artigo apresenta definições gerais sobre modelos e preocupações com o seu uso; descreve os principais modelos: árvore de decisão, Markov, microssimulação, simulação de eventos discretos e dinâmicos; discute os elementos envolvidos na escolha do modelo; e exemplifica os modelos abordados com estudos de avaliação econômica nacionais de tecnologias preventivas e de programas de saúde, diagnósticas e terapêuticas. Abstract in english Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a [...] pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  13. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  14. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  15. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to forego reusing recoverable nuclear fuel, and thus reprocessing, in the long run

  16. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  17. Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Adamopoulos

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

  18. Advanced solar R and D. Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relationship between R and D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of R and D investments on the costs of emissions abatement. (author)

  19. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  20. Analysis of problems in making the reproductive decision after genetic counselling.

    OpenAIRE

    Frets, P G; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Verhage, F.; Peters-Romeyn, B M; Niermeijer, M.F.

    1991-01-01

    A follow up study of 164 couples to evaluate reproductive decision making two to three years after genetic counselling showed that 43% had problems making the reproductive decision. These couples (1) had experienced difficulty in the decision making process, (2) had doubts about the decision they had made, or (3) had been unable to make a decision. Using logistic regression analysis we identified the following factors as independently and significantly associated with problems in the decision...

  1. Journal interaction. A bibliometric analysis of economics journals

    OpenAIRE

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2005-01-01

    Citation analysis is widely used as an evaluation method within sciences. This paper seeks to qualify citation analyses by adding insight into the sciences under investigation. The paper presents a method of citation analysis using multiple linear regressions on both cited and citing economic journals. The proposed method controls for the different characteristics of the journals as well as for their degree of interaction. The paper shows some of the hidden structures within the economic scie...

  2. Do economic policymakers practice what they preach? : the case of pension decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Dahan, Momi; Kogut, Tehila; Shalem, Moshe

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines whether policymakers, economists at the Israeli Finance Ministry, act in their personal pension decisions in accordance with the rational behaviour assumptions underlying the pension policies they advance. We find that while economists' decisions regarding three other important decisions such as buying an apartment, a car and a large appliance, are largely in line with rational models, pension decisions deviate significantly from these models. A large share of these policy...

  3. Integrating Economics into Water Resources Systems Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R.

    2012-12-01

    The need to integrate economic and hydro-engineering models has been long recognized and is the subject of several articles and literature surveys. However difficulties of obtaining sufficient precision of economic data to span the significant differences in both spatial and temporal scales presents challenges, and opportunities for the use of new technologies. Most hydrologic models run on a daily time step, or at a minimum, monthly, whereas many economic models, particularly of agriculture, are estimated on an annual time step. The asymmetry in difficulty of downscaling versus aggregating is briefly reviewed, and an example of down-scaling irrigation water value functions to a monthly time step, using information from crop water use models is presented. Similarly, the spatial cell resolution of hydro-engineering models is usually much finer than economic models, which are usually aggregated at the level that prices or production quantities are reported. A method of downscaling regional measures of crop production and water use to the field level using the additional information from remote sensing measurements is demonstrated in the context of agricultural production in California's central valley. A problem that arises is that for spatial crop production the available data from Landsat measurements processed by NAAS in pixel form is very noisy when overlaid onto a field level boundary GIS layer. For complex cropping systems such as those found in California, it is not uncommon to have three different categories of pixel identification in the same field. The approach discussed uses a cross-entropy approach and additional data from locally measured sources, to estimate the most likely uniform crop in any given field. In addition, constraints on the combination of different sized fields and the total regional acreage measured by local county commissioners provides additional information and structure on the estimates. Initial results show significant noise in the estimates, but given the consistency of the sampling method and relative stability of crop types grown in a given region, this seems a natural application for improved estimates from sequential filtering. Over time with improved ground-truthing, we can expect steadily improving precision of field level crop estimates. Using these approaches, economic analysts can construct models of water value functions that are able to be empirically estimated on spatial and temporal scales that are compatible with hydro-economic models.

  4. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  5. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  6. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  7. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  8. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GEOTIFF V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS GeoTIFF -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  9. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  10. Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

  11. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  12. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  13. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  14. THE ROLE OF ECONOMICAL DEVELOPMENT IN INDIAN MARKET AN INDIAN PROSPECTIVE

    OpenAIRE

    Shashikanth S. Kalashetty

    2014-01-01

    Managerial economics is the application of the economic concepts and economic analysis to the problems of formulating rational managerial decisions". It is sometimes referred to as business economics and is a branch of economics that applies microeconomic analysis to decision methods of businesses or other management units. As such, it bridges economic theory and economics in practice. It draws heavily from quantitative techniques such as regression analysis, correlation a...

  15. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information System Framework for Hazardous Waste Transport Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monprapussorn

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a combination of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA and Geographic Information System (GIS approaches to the hazardous waste transport problem. There are risks associated with a truck being involved in an accident during shipment of hazardous materials (HAZMAT and/or hazardous wastes. The level of impact posed to surroundings depends on many factors such as population density, No. of sensitive locations, proximity to rescue units and security. It is essential that all of the related factors and criteria involved be considered prior to making decisions about route selection. Certain routing criteria and standards for HAZMAT transport have been developed in many developed countries such as the United States, Canada and European countries with the purpose of risk avoidance during shipment of these materials. However, a lack of a comprehensive framework for the selection of HAZMAT and/or hazardous waste routes that the transporter can use for aiding their decisions is a major concern in most developing countries. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for making optimum hazardous waste transport routing choices by incorporating multiple factors and sub-factors. Factors and sub-factors are divided into three main categories; economic, environmental and societal (exposure and emergency response issues that are in line with the sustainability paradigm. The proposed framework can contribute to the thought processes of governmental policy-makers and carriers when they evaluate possible routes and are making their decision in order to minimize damage from transporting hazardous waste.

  16. A Hierarchical Decision Making Framework for Vulnerability Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Tai-Ran; Mousseau, Vincent; Zio, Enrico

    2013-01-01

    Embracing an all-hazard view to deal with random failures, natural disasters, accidents and malevolent intentional acts, a framework for the vulnerability analysis of safety-critical systems and infras- tructures is set up. A hierarchical structure is used to organise the information on the hazards, which is then manipulated through a decision-making process for vulnerability evaluation. We present the framework and its hierarchical model by way of assessing the susceptibility of a safety-cri...

  17. Análise de decisões sobre uso de tecnologia: um estudo no setor de telefonia móvel fundamentado nos axiomas da economia comportamental / Analysis of decisions on the use of technology: a study in the mobile telephone sector grounded in the axioms of behavioral economics

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Alexandre, Cappellozza; Otavio Prospero, Sanchez.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A Economia Comportamental, campo que recebeu grandes contribuições de Kahneman e Tversky e que rendeu um prêmio Nobel ao primeiro, é uma abordagem que se tem ocupado em caracterizar e analisar variados aspectos do comportamento decisório humano, descrevendo-o como não plenamente racional. Sua import [...] ância está em questionar a racionalidade da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada, TUE, aceito por décadas como modelo fundamental na economia. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar como as decisões sobre a adoção e uso de equipamentos e serviços apoiados por tecnologia são afetadas pelos aspectos influenciadores da decisão, preconizados por Kahneman e Tversky. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido por meio de experimento adaptado ao contexto do segmento de telefonia móvel, setor esse escolhido pela sua relevância nos últimos anos na economia brasileira. Os dados foram analisados por técnicas de comparação de grupos com variáveis categóricas. Os resultados permitiram evidenciar vários aspectos da não-racionalidade dos decisores conforme apregoado pelos autores originais, especialmente em relação a aspectos contidos na chamada Teoria dos Prospectos (Prospect Theory). A partir das descobertas, pode-se questionar decisões sobre a utilização de tecnologia no nível do indivíduo e organizações, com importantes conseqüências no nível gerencial. Abstract in english Behavioral economics, a field that has received major contributions from Kahneman and Tversky, the former also having received a Nobel prize, is an approach that has focused on a number of aspects of behavior in human decisions, defining their outcomes as not being fully rational. Its main contribut [...] ion was conquered by questioning the so far very well established Utility Theory, a very important basis in economics. This article aims to verify how decisions concerning the adoption and use of information technology are potentially affected by the factors described in Kahneman and Tversky's theory. This was done by means of an experiment adapted to the context of the mobile communications sector, which was chosen due to its economic and social relevance in recent years in Brazil. The data were analyzed by means of categorical group comparison techniques. The results provided evidence of non-rational behavior amongst decision makers as proposed by original authors, mainly those regarding aspects of the Prospect Theory. With this evidence, it is possible to question a number of aspects of individual and organizational decisions involving the use of information technology use, with important implications at the managerial levels.

  18. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Trigonis; Ourania Matsouka; George Costa; George Tzetzis

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in ...

  19. Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Ag through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site ownerThe decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in

  20. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  1. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  2. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu MARINA?

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

  3. Economic and policy analysis of university-based drug "detailing".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soumerai, S B; Avorn, J

    1986-04-01

    The cost-effectiveness of quality assurance programs is often poorly documented, especially for innovative approaches. The authors analyzed the economic effects of an experimental educational outreach program designed to reduce inappropriate drug prescribing, based on a four-state randomized controlled trial (N = 435 physicians). Primary care physicians randomized into the face-to-face group were offered two individualized educational sessions with clinical pharmacists, lasting an average of 18 minutes each, concerning optimal use of three drug groups that are often used inappropriately. After the program, expenditures for target drugs prescribed by these physicians to Medicaid patients decreased by 13%, compared with controls (P = 0.002); this effect was stable over three quarters. Implementation of this program for 10,000 physicians would lead to projected drug savings (to Medicaid only) of $2,050,000, compared with resource costs of $940,000. Net savings remain high, even after adjustment for use of substitution medications. Although there was a ninefold difference in average preintervention prescribing levels between the highest and lowest thirds of the sample, all groups reduced target drug expenditures at the same rate. Targeting of higher-volume prescribers would thus further raise the observed benefit-to-cost ratio from approximately 1.8 to at least 3.0. Net benefits would also increase further if non-Medicaid savings were added, or if the analysis included quality-of-care considerations. Although print materials alone may be marginally cost-effective, print plus face-to-face approaches offer greater net benefits. The authors conclude that a program of brief, face-to-face "detailing" visits conducted by academic rather than commercial sources can be a highly cost-effective method for improving drug therapy decisions. Such an approach makes possible the enhancement of physicians' clinical expertise without relying on restriction of drug choices. PMID:3083161

  4. Islamic Economics Literature: A Bibliometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajjad ur Rehman

    1994-12-01

    Full Text Available The study tested the hypothesis that Islamic economics literature exhibits the features of the Bradfordian Law of Scattering while identifying core authors, publishers, sources of literature, and countries of origin. A database of 3,026 citations was created with information about the four primary measures. The occurrence counts were tabulated and displayed in bibliographs as essential instruments for hypothesis testing. It was found that the hypothesis could not be supported as the immature state of the discipline did not exhibit the features of established disciplines. Cores for authors, publishers, sources, and countries of origin were also identified.

  5. A bio-economic analysis of the hand-line and gillnet coastal fisheries of Pernambuco State, North-Eastern Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Mattos, Sérgio; Maynou, Francesc; Franquesa, Ramón

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a bio-economic analysis of the hand-line and gillnet coastal fisheries off Pernambuco State, North-Eastern Brazil, in order to define management measures to support the decision-making process available to fisheries managers to reduce uncertainties about the sustainable development of the fisheries. The objective of applying a bio-economic model was to reproduce the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. This was done by carrying out projections a...

  6. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR MAKING DECISIONS ON INCENTIVES FOR INVESTMENTS IN PLUM TREES PLANTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijan Kari?

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider the application of Cost/Benefit Analysis procedure in the decision process on socialeconomic profitability of subsidy implementation for investments in agricultural production, based on newly planted plum trees. Cost/Benefit Analysis has many advantages over the other common methods. It proved to be especially useful in the agricultural production, because it is possible to estimate the profitability of investments in the special conditions of agricultural production, taking into account many factors of its economic efficiency, as well as main effects that individual producers and the whole social community can expect. The application of Cost/Benefit Analysis, based on the data gathered for Bosnia and Herzegovina, enabled insight into the profitability of the existing subsidy programs for investments in plum trees planting, that take place in the conditon of the whole economy transition and high degree of rural population unemployment.

  7. The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is the price to be paid today in order t o pr

  8. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  9. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  10. MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VENUGOPAL .B. S

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

  11. Ordinal benefits vs economic benefits as a reference guide for policy decision making. The case of hydrogen technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannantoni, Corrado [ENEA - ' ' Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment' ' , Casaccia Research Center, S. Maria di Galeria, 00060 Rome (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The paper presents an Investment Evaluation Method in Energetic-Economic-Environmental field which is particularly indicated for Hydrogen Technologies because it enables us to account not only for the traditional economic return and the possible negative externalities (damages), but also for: i) the induced economic benefits at a social level; ii) those positive (and negative) externalities usually considered as being estimable in economic terms as ''proxies''; iii) and, finally, Ordinal Benefits. That is those Benefits which are never ever reducible to a simple monetary value, nonetheless they can always be object of a possible estimation, still in economic terms, by means of values understood as a ''cipher''. The advantages of a Decision Making Process based on Ordinal Benefits (vs traditional economic benefits) will be shown with reference to the evaluation of well-calibrated Incentives concerning Hydrogen Fuel Cells, both under static and dynamic conditions. Such an evaluation criterion, which is preferentially based on the estimated external Benefits to be ''remunerated'' rather than on possible damages to be internalized, represents a valid reference guide for a Policy Maker. This precisely because it is always orientated toward the genesis of the Maximum Ordinality Excess. (author)

  12. Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Li, Xun-Gui; Wei, Xia; Huang, Qiang.

    Full Text Available Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability r [...] isk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and experimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

  13. Antieigenvalue Analysis, New Applications: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, Number Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafson, Karl

    2015-01-01

    My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory.

  14. Economic factorial analysis: general theory and original approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chebotarev Sergei

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This research work is about the methodology of economic factorial analysis, which is an actual instrument for the analysis of different economic and technological models. The acceptance of control solutions becomes the result of model?s study in this case. This fact defines the importance of this unit for the analysis of systems. It is possible to realise the different numerical experiments on simulation of different processes and their following analysis using the methods received in the course of research of static and dynamical factorial analysis. The given analytical tool is widely used in practice. Author has carried out the research using the methods of factorial analysis in conditions of real production on one of the largest metallurgical plant of Europe. This fact also confirms a practical importance of factorial analysis.

  15. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  16. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  17. Satellite power system: Engineering and economic analysis summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    A system engineering and economic analysis was conducted to establish typical reference baselines for the photovoltaic, solar thermal, and nuclear satellite power systems. Tentative conclusions indicate that feasibility and economic viability are characteristic of the Satellite Power System. Anticipated technology related to manufacturing, construction, and maintenance operations is described. Fuel consumption, environmental effects, and orbital transfer are investigated. Space shuttles, local space transportation, and the heavy lift launch vehicle required are also discussed.

  18. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS ap...

  19. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  20. Application of Risk Analysis in Business Investment Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Merková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decision-makings should be regarded in each business entity as the crucial factor for its long-term prosperity. An acquired decision affects the performance of the company as well as its competitiveness in long time. If a competent investor has an interest to make a qualified investment decision, it means that he must primarily determine the time and risk factor. In the capital-intensive investment projects, attention must be paid to the risks that the preparation, realization and use of investment bring. The aim of this paper is to identify critical factors that affect the expected profit and cash flow in the implementation of investment projects by applying the most advanced models used to quantify the risks of investing. Research was conducted in a wood processing and furniture manufacturing company. The results given by cash flow indicatiors show that the investment project is feasible and effective. By changing some parameters, sensitivity analysis shows that the main risk factors for the project in question are the selling price, volume of production, material costs and labor costs.

  1. Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

  2. Economic strain and suicide risk: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stack, Steven; Wasserman, Ira

    2007-02-01

    Research at the individual level on economic strain and suicide has focused on unemployment; yet it remains unclear how unemployment and other economic strains actually affect suicide risk for the individual. In the present study Agnew's (1992, 2002), General Strain Theory was applied to a qualitative analysis of case files. Strain issues assessed include the role of goal blockage, economic loss, noxious work environments, anticipated strain, strain clusters, and vicarious strain in the generation of suicide risk. Data are from 62 cases of suicide involving economic strain from the files of an urban county medical examiner's office. The cases were classified into strain categories. Suicide risk was related to all categories of strain; however, economic strains were typically comorbid with additional strains in the genesis of suicide. Key auxiliary strains included anticipated loss of a home place, loss of a car, noxious social relationships, medical problems, death of loved ones, and involvement with the criminal justice system. Some evidence was found linking economic strain to the suicides of nonimpoverished persons. Economic strain and suicide would especially benefit by testing additional hypotheses on strain comorbidity. Unemployment combined with an anticipated eviction from one's home is recommended as a particular point of departure for future work. PMID:17397284

  3. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  4. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

  5. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Simoens

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

  6. Analysis of Political Decision-Making and Its Influencing Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing YAN

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Political decision-making means a country’s political parties, leaders or leadership compare and select implementing principles and approaches and means to achieve the target in political practical activities for the purpose, principles and direction of activities. The process of political decision-making is a dynamic political process that is related to the formation and implementation of major and general decisions of the national, political and social interest groups. This process is to integrate major and general decisions regarding national and social interests. The subjects are state organs, political parties and individual decision makers or decision-making participants, and the finally formed decision is backed by the country’s coercive power with mandatory features. Meanwhile, political decision-making is influenced by system pressure. In the decision-making process, there will be a certain degree of bias between the final decision and the targeted decision.

  7. Economic analysis of vaccination to control bovine brucellosis in the States of Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, A J S; Rocha, F; Amaku, M; Ferreira, F; Telles, E O; Grisi Filho, J H H; Ferreira Neto, J S; Zylbersztajn, D; Dias, R A

    2015-03-01

    Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that causes important economic losses in Brazil, and the country has therefore established a national program for its control and eradication. Using data generated in the last national brucellosis survey, we conducted an economic analysis in two Brazilian States with different brucellosis status, Mato Grosso (with high prevalence) and Sao Paulo (with low prevalence). The economic analysis was based on the calculation of the additional benefits and costs of controlling bovine brucellosis through the vaccination of heifers aged between 3 and 8 months with S19 vaccine, considering maximal and minimal impacts of the disease. The analysis showed that vaccinating 90% of the replacement heifers aged 3-8 months of age offers the best economic performance in a vaccination program against bovine brucellosis if compared to vaccination rates of 70% and 80%. Moreover, regions with higher prevalences of bovine brucellosis would experience significant economic advantages when implementing a vaccination strategy to control the disease. This economic analysis will allow decision makers to plan more economically effective vaccination programs. PMID:25548080

  8. An economic analysis of BWR control rod blade management strategies. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear power plants have available a number of alternative courses of action that can contribute to the reduction of personnel exposure to radiation. Possible actions at boiling water reactor (BWR) plants include accelerating the replacement of high-cobalt control rod blades (CRB) or the blades' high-cobalt pins and rollers with low or non-cobalt substitutes. To help utilities understand the exposure reduction and the economic costs and benefits associated with management alternatives, such as accelerated replacement of blades, pins and rollers, EPRI has initiated a project called Cost/Benefit Software for Analyses of Radiation Control Measures (RP1935-32). Through this project EPRI will incorporate engineering-economic techniques into a series of analytical tools that will provide useful insights about alternative exposure reduction options. Prototype software has been developed in an Excel worksheet to analyze issues associated with BWR control rod blade management options. The CRB replacement problem framework and analysis methodology incorporated into the software tool will help plant managers consider explicitly key engineering and economic issues that are relevant to exposure reduction decisions. This tool generates results that can help plant managers make decisions that are fiscally wise by showing all the cost and benefit implications associated with a management action under consideration. This report describes the general analytical approach for evaluating exposure reduction alternatives. The methodology used to analyze blade and pin and roller replacement alternatives, and the results of a case study application of the methodology and the software prototype at Commonwealth Edison

  9. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be captured in the valuation model. Finally, the study will compare the probability distributions of development cost and project value and discusses the market penetration potential of the geothermal power generation. There is a recent world wide interest in geothermal utilization projects. There are several reasons for the recent popularity of geothermal energy, including the increasing volatility of fossil fuel prices, need for domestic energy sources, approaching carbon emission limitations and state renewable energy standards, increasing need for baseload units, and new technology to make geothermal energy more attractive for power generation. It is our hope that this study will contribute to the recent progress of geothermal energy by shedding light on the uncertainty of geothermal energy project costs.

  10. Perfection of a Complex Economic Analysis of Equity Capital ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodnarchuk Anna V.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article scientifically substantiates and proves a necessity of perfection of a complex economic analysis of equity capital, which provides a system approach to analysis of financial stability of a company and increases effectiveness of formation and use of equity capital. It considers and generalises types and tasks of factor analysis of equity capital as one of the stages of complex analysis. It allocates main factors of influence on the effective indicator, and develops a multi-factor model of factor analysis for perfection of the system of management of equity capital.? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ? ???????? ????????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????????????? ??????? ???????????? ????????, ??????? ???????????? ????????? ?????? ? ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ??????????? ? ???????? ????????????? ???????????? ? ????????????? ???????????? ????????. ??????????? ? ???????? ???? ? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ???????????? ???????? ??? ?????? ?? ?????? ???????????? ???????. ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????????????? ??????????, ? ??? ?????????????????? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ????????? ??????????? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????? ???????.

  11. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The major contents in this study are as follows : 1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. 2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. 3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs

  12. Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Cri?an, Liviu G.; Pan?, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M.; Szekely, Raluca; Bogdan DRUG?; Nicolae DRAGO?; Miu, Andrei C.

    2009-01-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and susceptibility to framing in decision making under uncertainty, as well as multidimensional anxiety and autonomic control of the heart in healthy volunteers. The present results indicate that in comparis...

  13. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  14. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

  15. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  16. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  17. INTUITIVE DECISION THEORY ANALYSIS AND THE EVALUATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-lin MIAO; FENG Jun-wen; Ju BAI

    2007-01-01

    Intuitive decision-making studies the decision-maker’s decision-making behavior from the perspective of image thinking, which it poses a challenge to the classic decision-making hypothesis pursuing “optimal decision” because the outcomes of intuitive decision-making are difficulty to measure and its process isn’t easy to describe and control. Therefore it has not drawn the experts’ attention. This paper tries to establish an evaluation model of the intuitive decision-making as to giving a dir...

  18. Guide to IDAP, Version 2: an interactive decision analysis procedure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jusko, M.J.; Whitfield, R.G.

    1980-11-01

    This document is intended to serve as both a programmer's and user's guide to the current version of the IDAP; and to prompt interested individuals into making suggestions for the future development of IDAP. The majority of the sections pertain to the main IDA program rather than to the IDAIN procedure. A brief discussion is presented of the theory of decision analysis. The aspects of decision analysis that are relevant to the IDAP are discussed. A complete list and description of the commands used in the IDAP program is provided and, including three complete examples. This section may be considered a user's guide to the IDAP. The programmer's guide to the IDAP discusses the various technical aspects of the programs, and may be skipped by users not involved with programming the IDAP. A list of the error messages generated by the IDAP is presented. As the program is developed, error handling and messages will improve.

  19. Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986)

    OpenAIRE

    Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

    2013-01-01

    This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986). It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that th...

  20. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 3.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

  1. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE VERSION 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

  2. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 3.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of, and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 3.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon mon...

  3. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL VERSION 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a...

  4. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: USER'S GUIDE - VERSION 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and...

  5. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM: REFERENCE MANUAL - VERSION 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The two-volume report describes the development of and provides information needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version 2.0 model. he model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and...

  6. The Role of Temperature in Economic Exchange - An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrijevi? Bojan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available As a synthesis of economics and physics and an attempt to apply the methods and models of statistical physics to economics, econophysics is presently a new, growing and very dynamic branch of modern science. Therefore, the subject of this paper is to analyse the relationship and interdependence between thermodynamics and economics, and it aims to show similarities, analogies and correspondence between the main categories, methods and models of thermodynamics on one hand, and economics on the other. The paper analyses the relation between economics and thermodynamics, as well as the probability distribution in the kinetic theory of gases corresponding to money, income and wealth distribution, connects entropy with utility and the principle of operation of the thermal engine with economic exchange. The final part of the paper empirically analyzes temperature differences in the exchange between Serbia and the selected EU countries. There are differences in temperature between Serbia and the group of selected countries. Results of the empirical analysis shows that the exchange between countries is based on principles of thermodynamics and that developed countries generate more profits and benefits from exchange.

  7. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  8. To What Extent Educational Planning and Policy Decision ought to Be Guided by Economic Considerations – A Case Study on Recent Educational Developments of Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Margaret Wai Ki

    2010-01-01

    The ascendance to popularity of the liberal ideologies and the concepts of political economy of education will be put forward as the root cause for an increasing subordination of education objectives to national economic goals. Through a case study of the educational development of Hong Kong, this paper will evaluate the extent to which educational planning and policy decision should be guided by economic considerations. Although the rapid economic growth of Hong Kong and the rapid expansion ...

  9. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  10. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches. PMID:23823331

  11. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuli I Saarni

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Health technology assessment (HTA is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  12. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

  13. Voluntary Participation in Community Economic Development in Canada: An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Lamb

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is an empirical analysis of an individual's decision to participate in community economic development (CED initiatives in Canada. The objective of the analysis is to better understand how individuals make decisions to volunteer time toward CED initiatives and to determine whether the determinants of participation in CED are unique when compared to those of participation in volunteer activities in general. The dataset employed is Statistics Canada's 2004 Canada Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating (CSGVP. To date, there has been no prior econometric analysis of the decision to participate in community economic development initiatives in Canada. Results suggest a role for both public policymakers and practitioners in influencing participation in CED. / Cet article constitue une analyse empirique du processus de prise de décision chez les individus en ce qui a trait à la participation aux initiatives canadiennes de développement économique communautaire (DÉC. Le but de l'analyse est de mieux comprendre la façon dont les individus prennent la décision de consacrer du temps au bénévolat dans les initiatives de DÉC. Elle sert aussi à trancher la question de savoir si les facteurs de participation aux initiatives de développement économique communautaire sont uniques ou communs à la participation à des activités bénévoles en général. Les données employées dans le cadre de cette analyse sont puisées de l'Enquête canadienne sur le don, le bénévolat et la participation effectuée par Statistique Canada en 2004. À ce jour, aucune analyse économétrique n'a été menée sur la décision de participer aux initiatives canadiennes de DÉC. Les résultats suggèrent que les responsables de l'élaboration des politiques ainsi que les praticiens influencent tous deux la participation aux initiatives de DÉC.

  14. Decision Making in Darkness: an Analysis of Initial Decision Making Prerequisites in Public Projects in Iceland

    OpenAIRE

    Andri Már Reynisson 1985

    2012-01-01

    Large public projects in Iceland suffer from frequent cost overruns. No indications of increased accuracy in estimations over time and with increased experience are visible. These estimations are amongst the foundations or prerequisites of initial decisions of undertaking large public projects, using public funds. Prerequisites for decisions should be reflected in the outcome of the decision, along with other environmental factors that are beyond the control of management. Two of the prere...

  15. The dynamics of economic convergence: the role of alternative investment decisions.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Br?ha, Jan; Podpiera, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ro?. 35, ?. 7 (2011), s. 1032-1044. ISSN 0165-1889 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : two-country modeling * convergence * real exchange rate Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.855, year: 2011

  16. An Analysis on the Relative Efficiency of the Infrastructure Investment in the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt Based on DEA Method

    OpenAIRE

    Yinghui Xiang; Tao Wen; Yachen Liu

    2012-01-01

    The infrastructure construction is playing an important role in the development of Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt, whereas a calculation and analysis on the relative efficiency of its 6 cities’ infrastructure investment will offer a useful reference to the decision on the future investment scale and structure of this area’s infrastructure. Based on DEA model and from the viewpoint of constant scale return and changing scale return, this paper calculates the comprehensive rela- tive efficiency...

  17. Nuclear proliferation in the Third World: an analysis of decision making in Indiana and Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The causes of nuclear proliferation in the Third World are analyzed by examining the motives and forces that went into the nuclear decisions of India and Pakistan. A comprehensive framework is used that consists of five levels of analysis: international, societal, governmental, bureaucratic, and individual factors. The study examines how various potential motives that might impel a nation to acquire nuclear weapons operated through the different levels of analysis. It is concluded that the security motive was the primary determinant in each case as opposed to other motives such as desire for international status or economic considerations. However, security motives were joined by other values and constraints. Regional conflict combined with the lack of a superpower guarantee of security to persuade both countries to pursue nuclear weapons. Such domestic factors as the type of political systems, public opinion, and mass media seemed to play a very limited role in the decisions, although a larger role in India than in Pakistan. Finally, strong individual leadership was a relatively powerful determinant of policy in both countries

  18. INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING ON FINANCE IN ANDHRA PRADESH – AN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mahadeva Reddy

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this modern era, money plays an important role in one’s life. In order to overcome the problems in future they have to invest their money. The investment of hard earned money is a crucial activity of every human being. The investment is the commitment of funds which have been saved from current consumption with the hope that some benefits will be received in future. The savings of the people are invested in assets depending on their risk and return demands, Safety of money, liquidity, the available avenues for investment, various financial institutions, etc.The finance is a new academic discipline which seeks to apply the insights of the psychologists to understand the behaviour of both investors and financial markets. The investors do not act wisely in taking decisions relating to investment. The investment decisions also depends on the types of investors, risk tolerance capacity, education, occupation, age, sex, income, marital status, family back ground, living area and environment and attachment with the financial advisor etc. The principle of behavioral finance the present study explores the psychological concept of individual attachment style, especially individual investors to different available investment avenues and their investment preference process. The analysis has been made by taking primary data collected through structured questionnaire and secondary data for consideration.

  19. Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained

  20. Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yacout, A.M.; Orechwa, Y.

    1996-03-01

    The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained.

  1. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base ?f ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator – the vulnerability index. Firstly, this index shows in what way the investors’ income changes while decreasing the profits in the sphere of agricultural land use by 1 per cent. Secondly, the above mentioned index defines the desire of investors to be present in agriculture under conditions of irrational use of the land resources. The author estimates investment quality by the criterion of «high – low» and interconnects it with substantiation of investment decisions in agricultural land use. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The author concludes that innovative approaches include the following issues: using of the category «investment quality» helps to raise substantiation of investment attractiveness assessment; the assessment of investment quality is undertaken from the side of each investment strategy which helps to describe motivation issues of investment process; the complex ecologically oriented strategy, offered by the author, is innovative by itself as it is based on the ecological and economic indicators of the investment quality, which has never calculated before. The implementation of such a complex ecologically oriented investment strategy is a subject for further researches.

  2. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and Sensitivity measures for soil aggregation, for developing dependence methodology, for constructing early alert logic, for tracking trends, for relating the Markov model to other (e.g., Reason) models, for developing and demonstrating rudimentary laptop software, and for developing an input/output display methodology.

  3. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) either in combination or separated. The MCA module is based on the AHP and SMARTER techniques. COSIMA also handles risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation.

  4. Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

  5. ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia, VECHIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.

  6. Tactical techno-economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood waste fuels in a heating plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palander Teijo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, we investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made using three different energy efficiency and forest technology rates. Then the decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels (below-ground on a tactical decision-making horizon. With this aim, fuel data of three forest fuel procurement teams were collected for 3 months. The strategic fuel procurement decisions were adjusted to the changed decision environment based on a tactical techno-economic analysis using forest technology rates. The optimal energy product and fuel mixtures were solved by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

  7. Transmission Bearing Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Lewicki, David G.; Decker, Harry J.

    2004-01-01

    A diagnostic tool was developed for detecting fatigue damage to rolling element bearings in an OH-58 main rotor transmission. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting bearing surface fatigue pitting damage. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from tests performed in the NASA Glenn 500 hp Helicopter Transmission Test Stand. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when two unanticipated bearing failures occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears duplex ball bearings and spiral bevel pinion triplex ball bearings in a main rotor transmission.

  8. Probability assessment and decision analysis of alternative nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports upon a decision analysis experiment conducted among sixteen individuals who were well informed on the topic of nuclear weapons proliferation and on the civilian use of plutonium fuel cycles. The results are troublesome to those who believe in the possibility of objective scientific judgments in an area as polarized as this one has become. Depending upon whether one supports or opposes plutonium fuel cycles, one also tends to adopt arguments on uranium availability, energy demand growth, and so on that support one or the other position. This finding could help explain why it has proved so difficult to reach a factual consensus within expert working groups, each specializing in a particular aspect of the overall problem. Consciously or subconsciously, it appears that the expert committees are simultaneously debating the larger issue that confronts society

  9. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

  10. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  11. Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udude Celina C

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

  12. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    The rapid growth of high-data-rate applications along with the fact that the majority of mobile data traffic is originated indoor has drawn much attention on IBW (In Building Wireless) solutions, from industry to academic research. The mobile network operators seek proper indoor solutions to accommodate the high indoor traffic demand for their future network evolution. In this thesis, we study the dedicated indoor systems for enterprise solutions. The DAS and Femtocells constitute two major IBW solutions for efficient in-building coverage extension and capacity provision. This study makes a technology economical examination based on these two systems for network evolution using the LTE technology. The performance is evaluated based on simulations. Overall, the DAS is less efficient in providing high speed, high volume mobile data services than the multi-cell system, i.e. the Femto system and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto system has absolute advantage compared to the DAS. For coverage-oriented deployment with very limited user data traffic demand, DAS is the most economical solution in large-size buildings, and Femto is more economical for deployment in small-size buildings.

  13. Impact of economic growth and financial development on exports: Cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shahbaz, Muhammad,; Rahman, Mizanur

    2011-01-01

    The analysis shows cointegration between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results that economic growth and financial development stimulate rate of exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationship between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports and exports and economic growth in case of Pakistan.

  14. Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

    2010-01-06

    The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically high purity (limited dissolved solids) is used inside boilers, reactors or electrolyzers because as it changes phase or is consumed, it leaves very little residue behind. Pre-treatment of 'raw' source water to remove impurities not only enables efficient hydrogen production, but also reduces maintenance costs associated with component degradation due to those impurities. Cooling water has lower overall quality specifications, though it is required in larger volumes. Cooling water has distinct quality requirements aimed at preserving the cooling equipment by reducing scaling and fouling from untreated water. At least as important as the quantity, quality and cost of water inputs to a process are the quantity, quality and cost of water discharge. In many parts of the world, contamination from wastewater streams is a far greater threat to water supply than scarcity or drought (Brooks, 2002). Wastewater can be produced during the pre-treatment processes for process and cooling water, and is also sometimes generated during the hydrogen production and cooling operations themselves. Wastewater is, by definition, lower quality than supply water. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities can handle some industrial wastewaters; others must be treated on-site or recycled. Any of these options can incur additional cost and/or complexity. DOE's 'H2A' studies have developed cost and energy intensity estimates for a variety of hydrogen production pathways. These assessments, however, have not focused on the details of water use, treatment and disposal. As a result, relatively coarse consumption numbers have been used to estimate water intensities. The water intensity for hydrogen production ranges between 1.5-40 gallons per kilogram of hydrogen, including the embedded water due to electricity consumption and considering the wide variety of hydrogen production, water treatment, and cooling options. Understanding the consequences of water management choices enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding water use. Water is a fundamentally reg

  15. Statistical decision analysis for flight decision support: The SPartICus campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Christopher J.; Stefik, Jason B.; Small, Arthur A.; Verlinde, Johannes; Young, George S.

    2013-05-01

    Field campaigns in atmospheric science typically require making challenging decisions about how best to deploy limited resources, especially aircraft flight hours. Algorithmic decision tools have shown the potential to outperform traditional heuristic approaches to allocating limited flight hours in field campaigns. The present study examines the utility of algorithmic decision tools in an application to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Small Particles in Cirrus (SPartICus) campaign, which sampled cirrus clouds over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site between January and June 2010. Probabilistic forecasts of suitable data collection conditions were generated using relative humidity forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and self-organizing maps. An optimization procedure based on dynamic programming was then used to generate day-ahead fly/no-fly decisions for research flights over the SGP site. The quality of flight decisions thus generated were compared with those made by the SPartICus science team. Results showed that the algorithmic decision tool would have delivered 11% more optimal data while shortening the length of the campaign season by 29 days and reducing the per-day expenditure of investigator time on activities of forecasting and decision-making.

  16. The effect of perceived regional accents on individual economic behavior: a lab experiment on linguistic performance, cognitive ratings and economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one's own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant's home region--the in-group opponent--, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  17. The Role of Interpersonal Traits in Social Decision Making: Exploring Sources of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Economic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Kun; Smillie, Luke D

    2015-08-01

    Economic games are well-established experimental paradigms for modeling social decision making. A large body of literature has pointed to the heterogeneity of behavior within many of these games, which might be partly explained by broad interpersonal trait dispositions. Using the Big Five and HEXACO (Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience) personality frameworks, we review the role of personality in two main classes of economic games: social dilemmas and bargaining games. This reveals an emerging role for Big Five agreeableness in promoting cooperative, egalitarian, and altruistic behaviors across several games, consistent with its core characteristic of maintaining harmonious interpersonal relations. The role for extraversion is less clear, which may reflect the divergent effects of its underlying agentic and affiliative motivational components. In addition, HEXACO honesty-humility and agreeableness may capture distinct aspects of prosocial behavior outside the bounds of the Five-Factor Model. Important considerations and directions for future studies are discussed within the emerging personality-economics interface. PMID:25552474

  18. 77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-05

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  19. 75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  20. 76 FR 59111 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-23

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  1. 75 FR 49890 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-16

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  2. 77 FR 21081 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-09

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  3. 76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic...provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be the...

  4. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Simoens

    2010-01-01

    An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from y...

  5. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    IngoVernaleken; SusannePrinz; RalfDieterHilgers; OliverHoltemöller

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm...

  6. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D.; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradig...

  7. Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC) - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Manvinder Singh Pahwa; Amanpreet Singh Chopra

    2013-01-01

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico a...

  8. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto; Erdi Novanto

    2011-01-01

    Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion). There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based simulation of the banking system to analyze ...

  9. Distinct neural activation patterns underlie economic decisions in high and low psychopathy scorers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Joana B; Almeida, Pedro R; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Barbosa, Fernando; Marques-Teixeira, João; Marsh, Abigail A

    2014-08-01

    Psychopathic traits affect social functioning and the ability to make adaptive decisions in social interactions. This study investigated how psychopathy affects the neural mechanisms that are recruited to make decisions in the ultimatum game. Thirty-five adult participants recruited from the community underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging scanning while they performed the ultimatum game under high and low cognitive load. Across load conditions, high psychopathy scorers rejected unfair offers in the same proportion as low scorers, but perceived them as less unfair. Among low scorers, the perceived fairness of offers predicted acceptance rates, whereas in high scorers no association was found. Imaging results revealed that responses in each group were associated with distinct patterns of brain activation, indicating divergent decision mechanisms. Acceptance of unfair offers was associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activity in low scorers and ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity in high scorers. Overall, our findings point to distinct motivations for rejecting unfair offers in individuals who vary in psychopathic traits, with rejections in high psychopathy scorers being probably induced by frustration. Implications of these results for models of ventromedial prefrontal cortex dysfunction in psychopathy are discussed. PMID:23748499

  10. Economic analysis in medical education: definition of essential terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kieran

    2014-10-01

    Medical education is expensive. There is a growing interest in the subject of cost and value in medical education. However, in the medical education literature, terms are sometimes used loosely - and so there is a need for basic grounding in the meaning of commonly used and important terms in medical education economics. The purpose of this article is to define some terms that are frequently used in economic analysis in medical education. In this article, terms are described, and the descriptions are followed by a worked example of how the terms might be used in practice. The following terms are described: opportunity cost, total cost of ownership, sensitivity analysis, viewpoint, activity-based costing, efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, price and transaction costs. PMID:25072235

  11. RATING DECISION ANALYSIS BASED ON IOS APP STORE DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Eri?

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the paper is to describe the specific aspects of the e-commerce model business-to-consumer as a constantly developing field of an economic life in the Central European countries according to their customers. The current state of e-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce issue was identified by the research in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.Methodology/Approach: For the purposes of collecting primary data the crucial factor for the selection of e-shops was identification of the suitable  online portals focused on post-purchase evaluation of e-shops in Visegrad group countries. Automatic data collection method was used for the observed variables (evaluations within selected online portals of the identified e-shops. The total of 5,228,127 evaluations of 9,260 e-shops were analysed. The main focus was given to customer overall satisfaction with an e-shop in relation to communication with a customer or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Findings: The results of the research showed that there exists a direct relation between overall satisfaction with an e-shop and communication with customers or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Originality/Value of paper: The ambition of this paper through the findings is to help subjects of e-commerce in their marketing decisions in order to even better understand the factors that influence customers’ satisfaction. 

  12. Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch : Integrating Social, Behavioral, Economic and Biological Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance (PASA) Branch is a team of approximately 22 scientists, technicians, and graduate student researchers. PASA provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and biological analyses in the context of human-natural resource interactions. Resource planners, managers, and policymakers in the U.S. Departments of the Interior (DOI) and Agriculture (USDA), State and local agencies, as well as international agencies use information from PASA studies to make informed natural resource management and policy decisions. PASA scientists' primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to advance performance in policy relevant research areas. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context, involve difficult to access populations, require knowledge of both natural/biological science in addition to social science, and require the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these difficult contexts, PASA researchers apply traditional and state-of-the-art social science methods drawing from the fields of sociology, demography, economics, political science, communications, social-psychology, and applied industrial organization psychology. Social science methods work in concert with our rangeland/agricultural management, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of PASA's research is to enhance natural resource management, agency functions, policies, and decision-making. Our research is organized into four broad areas of study.

  13. Purposeful engineering economics

    CERN Document Server

    Chadderton, Ronald A

    2015-01-01

    This textbook/course supplement stands as a unique and highly original complement to the traditional engineering economics curriculum. Its primarily narrative approach conveys the essence of an “Austrian" economic perspective on cash flow analysis and decision making in engineering, without extensive tables and graphs, and requires very little mathematics. The book’s objective is to add a new perspective to the usual study of cash flow analysis and solely econometric engineering decision making. The author draws on the methodology of the Austrian Economists—a school of economic thought that bases its study of economic phenomena on the interpretation and analysis of the purposeful actions of individuals. The book includes an array of illustrative case studies examined in detail by the author and emphasizes the importance of market processes and price signals to coordinate engineering plans. Purposeful Engineering Economics is an ideal resource for students, teaching faculty, and practicing professional ...

  14. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

  15. Low level waste management economics through computer analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Expenditures on waste management systems in a nuclear power generating station can be substantial, both in capital and operating costs. Utility engineers and management personnel responsible for these systems must be equipped with the most modern technical and economic tools in order to be able to make sound decisions on the short-term and long-term management strategies. These management strategies can include the installation of radioactive waste solidification or volume reduction systems and the addition of interim local storage capabilities for radioactive waste. The choices available for a given strategy are enormous. Further, each option is dependent on a number of interrelated factors. Fortunately, these factors are quantifiable and the methodology of doing economic studies lends itself to being programmed into a computer. This paper focuses on a computer program, RWCOST, which has been developed to evaluate operation costs associated with a set of selected system and operating alternatives. The program is based upon projections of the expected annual radioactive waste volumes associated with each alternative over a specified plant life

  16. A citation-analysis of economic research institutes

    OpenAIRE

    Ketzler, Rolf; ZIMMERMANN, Klaus F.

    2012-01-01

    The citation analysis of the research output of the German economic research institutes presented here is based on publications in peer-reviewed journals listed in the Social Science Citation Index for the 2000-2009 period. The novel feature of the paper is that a count data model quantifies the determinants of citation success and simulates their citation potential. Among the determinants of the number of cites the quality of the publication outlet exhibits a strong positive effect. The same...

  17. Economic analysis of rural and artisanal aquaculture in Ecuador

    OpenAIRE

    Recalde Ruiz, Jose Renato

    2009-01-01

    Three different types of culture and conditions were tested to determine the profitability of Rural and Artisanal Aquaculture Project in Ecuador: monoculture of the freshwater fish named locally cachama (Piaractus brachypomus), monoculture of red claw crayfish (Cherax quadricarinatus) and polyculture tilapia (Oreochromis sp.) – cachama (Piaractus brachypomus). The economic models used for this particular analysis were Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Using these meth...

  18. The importance of demographics in economic analysis: the unusual suspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berson, D W

    1997-01-01

    "The proper use of demographic information can add significantly to the ability to analyze and forecast economic activity. With housing, short-run forecasting is difficult and long-term forecasting impossible without considering changing demographic factors. Combining detailed demographic analysis with sound structural econometric modeling of the cyclical factors underlying the demand for and the supply of housing has resulted in significantly more accurate analyses and forecasts of the [U.S.] housing market." PMID:12293197

  19. An Economic Analysis of Capital Flight from Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Taiwo Olubanjo Ajilore

    2010-01-01

    Available estimates of capital flight from Nigeria have several important limitations. This study takes cognizance of these limitations in estimating and subsequent analysis of trends of capital flight flows in Nigeria for the periods 1970 -2004 using the residual method of estimation, including necessary adjustments to account for the influence of trade faking and exchange rates movements. The study further seeks to verify if capital flight is indeed an important concern to economic manageme...

  20. Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming

    OpenAIRE

    Wenum, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for wildlife in agriculture, specifically applicable at farm level, (2) definition of a wildlife production function, (3) definition of the optimal strategy for incorporating wildlife conservation measures...

  1. Modelling for Pest Risk Analysis: Spread and Economic Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Carrasco Torrecilla, Luis Roman

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range is one of the main causes of the loss of biodiversity and leads to severe costs. Bioeconomic models that integrate biological invasion spread theory, economic impacts and invasion management would be of great help to increase the transparency of pest risk analysis (PRA) and provide for more effective and efficient management of invasive pests. In this thesis, bioeconomic models of management of invasive pests are ...

  2. Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production by Photovoltaic Electrolysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gajardo, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    Awareness of the climate situation and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels has focused attention on hydrogen as a renewable and sustainable energy resource. In this work an economic analysis of hydrogen production by a photovoltaic electrolysis system was conducted. Equations and solution methods from previous works [1, 2] have been used to compile the results. In order to run the electrolysis of water, electricity from the photovoltaic system was used. The photovoltaic electrolysis sy...

  3. The Global Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: Insights from Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zeckhauser, Richard J.; Ruifang Zhang; Karen Eggleston

    2010-01-01

    The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AR) limits the therapeutic options for treatment of infections, and increases the social benefit from disease prevention. Like an environmental resource, antimicrobials require stewardship. The effectiveness of an antimicrobial agent is a global public good. We argue for greater use of economic analysis as an input to policy discussion about AR, including for understanding the incentives underlying health behaviors that spawn AR, and to supplement o...

  4. The (economic) effects of lay participation in courts: a cross-country analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Voigt, Stefan

    2008-01-01

    Legal philosophers like Montesquieu, Hegel and Tocqueville have argued that lay participation in judicial decision-making would have benefits reaching far beyond the realm of the legal system narrowly understood. From an economic point of view, lay participation in judicial decision-making can be interpreted as a renunciation of an additional division of labor, which is expected to cause foregone benefits in terms of the costs as well as the quality of judicial decision-making. In order to be...

  5. Deploying a spreadsheet tool for early economic value assessment of medical device innovations with healthcare decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Michael P Craven; Morgan, Stephen P.; Crowe, John A.; LU, Bo

    2009-01-01

    Early stage evaluation of medical device innovations is important for healthcare decision-makers as much as for manufacturers, meaning that a wider application of a basic cost-effectiveness analysis is becoming necessary outside the usual expert base of health technology assessment specialists. Resulting from an academic-industry-healthcare professional collaboration, a spreadsheet tool is described that was designed to be accessible both to professionals in healthcare delivery organisations ...

  6. A Qualitative Decision Trail in the Hermeneutic Analysis: Evidence from the Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad Hisyam Selamat; Azizi Hamizi Hashim

    2009-01-01

    Qualitative analysis is often reported as an intuitive, personal journey for the researcher. In this case, qualitative research texts are long on discussions of data collection and research experiences but short on analysis. This paper aims to reduce the tension in the qualitative analysis by adopting a decision making trail that is proposed by Clarke (1999). The reason behind this is that a decision trail does provide a clear and agreed analysis processes in qualitative analysis. The case th...

  7. Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis

  8. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  9. Exploring Decision Maker Attitudes Towards Urban Development using Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    The use of geographic information systems and MCDA techniques in identifying the most suitable areas for a particular use is a common method utilised within many planning and environmental topic areas. However despite this usage, the planning industry is as yet to realise the potential of combining the two methods in order to develop a more robust methodology aiding better decision making. This paper implements the fuzzy spatial decision model Analytical Hierarchy Process - Ordered Weighted A...

  10. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that traditional single gene lists do not, particularly in areas such as interaction discovery.

  11. Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

    1999-02-01

    The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics. PMID:9950562

  12. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  13. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

  14. Economic evaluation of linezolid, flucloxacillin and vancomycin in the empirical treatment of cellulitis in UK hospitals: a decision analytical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinken, A; Li, Z; Balan, D; Rittenhouse, B; Wilike, R; Nathwani, D

    2001-12-01

    Standard antibiotic treatment of infections has become more difficult and costly due to treatment failure associated with the rise in bacterial resistance. New antibiotics that can overcome such resistant pathogens have the potential for great clinical and economic impact. Linezolid is a new antibiotic that is effective in the treatment of both antibiotic-susceptible and antibiotic-resistant Gram-positive bacterial infections, including those resistant to other available antibiotics. This breadth of activity is unique in existing antibiotics for Gram-positive bacteria and serves as the rationale for exploring the hypothesis that linezolid is an appropriate choice when considering empirical treatment of cellulitis in complicated or compromised patients in the nosocomial setting. A decision-modelling approach was used to compare the predicted first-line treatment efficacy and direct medical costs of linezolid with standard treatment of cellulitis among hospitalized patients. For the purposes of this analysis, standard care is defined along two main pathways: (1) initiating care with intravenous (iv) flucloxacillin, switching to vancomycin if the pathogen is found to be resistant to flucloxacillin, or maintaining flucloxacillin if the pathogen is found susceptible, or when culture and sensitivity analysis is inconclusive; or (2) initiating care with vancomycin, switching to iv flucloxacillin if the pathogen is found susceptible to flucloxacillin, maintaining vancomycin if the infection is found resistant, or when culture and sensitivity are inconclusive. For those patients taking iv flucloxacillin, a switch to oral flucloxacillin was allowed when clinically appropriate. We hypothesized that the cost of care of initiating treatment with linezolid would be less than that for both vancomycin and flucloxacillin in resistance risk ranges typically encountered in UK hospitals. In addition, while the registration trials showed equivalence of linezolid with the comparators in known or suspected methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and in known or suspected methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (vancomycin and oxacillin) respectively, we hypothesized that first-line success rates would be higher in empiric treatment with linezolid. Efficacy data were obtained from recent clinical trials with linezolid and standard treatment, and medical resource utilization was obtained from an expert panel of clinicians who were questioned regarding resistant and susceptible infections separately. UK hospital direct medical costs of treatment were determined using standard costing techniques. Base case analyses assumed a residual 80% unknown pathogen rate after culture and susceptibility based on a physician survey and supported in the literature. The analysis in this model predicts that initiating empirical treatment of cellulitis with linezolid will (1) result in higher overall success rates than flucloxacillin for first-line treatment, regardless of resistance risk and (2) be less costly than initiating treatment with flucloxacillin when the likelihood of a patient being infected by a resistant pathogen is greater than 24.1%. Furthermore, initiating treatment with linezolid is predicted to result in higher overall success rates and be less costly than vancomycin across the entire spectrum of the patients' risk of being infected by a resistant pathogen. PMID:11926436

  15. Socio-economic impact analysis of new AECB regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The federal government's Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIA) policy has been in effect since 1978. Under this policy, all new or amended regulations concerning health, safety, or fairness are subjected to a screening exercise which determines whether the regulations are 'major' or 'minor'. The costs and benefits of major regulations are analyzed in depth. This paper describes the SEIA policy and explains some of the basic concepts. Then the steps the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) follows in the analysis of new regulations are summarized. Finally, the AECB's past and forthcoming experience with the SEIA policy is discussed

  16. The Decision to Start a New Firm: An Econometric Analysis of Regional Entrepreneurship in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islem Khefacha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the factors that promote or mitigate transitions into self-employment is crucial to regional economic development efforts, while the number of new business created play a significant role to regional economic vitality and represent a major signal of a dynamic economy. We use a new measure of firm formation based on the combination between individual background with effects depending on the regional context in Tunisia such as entrepreneurial human capital and labour force characteristics. Even though some of these factors have been the subject of several entrepreneurship studies, it is still difficult to identify which one impact significantly the decision to create a new firm.As an illustration, the model is estimated using a data provided by the National Tunisian Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM 2010 Project, based on the analysis of a sample of 1966 cases. The main findings of the study show that “competencies” measured by the two variables “knowing someone personally who started a business in the past 2 years” and “presence of good opportunities for starting a business” increase significantly the probability to create a new venture. In addition, we have found that the interaction between these two factors has a positive influence. However, “fear of failure” influences negatively the decision to start up. Finally, some fixed region-specific factors notably the average real wage of a region must be accounted for when estimating regional self-employment relationships. We discuss the implications of our results for policy-makers with useful information in designing and implementing policies to promote enterprise development.

  17. Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

  18. Economic evaluation of the spanish port system using the promethee multicriteria decision method

    OpenAIRE

    Ignacio, Castillo Manzano Jose; Quijada, Maria Teresa Arevalo; Nuño, Maria Mercedes Castro

    2004-01-01

    Due to legislation changes during the Nineties, the Spanish Port System has gone through a series of changes that, simultaneous with a period of economic expansion and generalized marine traffic growth, have affected the Port System’s composition, organization and operation. The gradual transformations produced by this context, give shape to a new model of operation for Port Authorities, which now start to be managed under business criteria and procedures of functional autonomy, competition, ...

  19. The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case

    OpenAIRE

    Raluca Andreea POPA; Matei CR?CIUN

    2011-01-01

    Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today t...

  20. Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

  1. Economic analysis and prospective simulation in the low carbon town planing. Application of TRANUS+ model to Grenoble city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic spatial planning in France is currently given a rising importance for environmental and climate issues. Is this tool really able to reduce urban sprawl and produce an efficient framework for reducing transport emissions? What are the potential contributions of economic analysis and prospective modelling to planning? To answer these questions, we developed a study on the contributions of economic tools to planning into the broader context of political and administrative reforms in France. We then produced a critical analysis of current planning practices and attempted to define the conditions for a better integration of economic analysis into planning processes and methods. For our case study on the Grenoble urban area, we built and applied a series of economic tools able to inform decision-making on local climate policies in the framework of urban planning. In addition to being the first implementation of the integrated transport - land-use model TRANUS in France, this study further links the TRANUS model to an original economic methodology to obtain a tool we call TRANUS+. This tool is able to take into account the systemic nature of cities and then help to define better transport policies, notably by producing marginal abatement cost curves useful at the urban level. To have a more complete view of urban planning and the way in which it can be improved, we investigated several issues from a planning perspective: the choice of modelling tool and the role of cost-benefit analysis, energy poverty in the transport sector and electric vehicle deployment. (author)

  2. Economic analysis of the cost of Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazetas D.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The cost of Intensive Care Units has the greatest impact on overall medical costs and the overall cost for the health of a country and an increasing number of studies from around the world presenting the quantification of these costs. Aim: Review of the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Method: Search was made in the SCOPUS, MEDLINE and CINAHL databases using the key-words “Intensive Care Units (ICU”, “Cost”, “Cost Analysis”, “Health Care Costs”, “Health Resources”, “ICU resources”. The study was based on articles published in English from 2000 to 2011 investigating the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Results: The cost of ICU is a significant percentage of gross domestic product in developed countries. Most cost analysis studies that relate to plans that include the study of staff costs, duration of stay in the ICU, the clinical situations of hospitalized patients, engineering support, medications and diagnostic tests costing scales and in relation to the diagnostic criteria. Conclusions: most studies conclude that the remuneration of staff, particularly nurses, in the ICU is the largest cost of ICU, while for the duration of stay in the ICU results are conflicting. The analysis on the cost-effectiveness of ICU can help to better apply these findings to the therapeutic context of ICU.

  3. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2015-10-01

    A review of literature during calendar year 2014 focused on environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation. PMID:26420109

  4. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    OpenAIRE

    Harp, Dylan R.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to ...

  5. Quantitative Analysis of Group Decision Making for Complex Engineered Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Broniatowski, David Andre; Coughlin, Joseph F.; Magee, Christopher L.; Yang, Maria

    2009-01-01

    Understanding group decision-making processes is crucial for design or operation of a complex system. Unfortunately, there are few experimental tools that might contribute to the development of a theory of group decision-making by committees of technical experts. This research aims to fills this gap by providing tools based on computational linguistics algorithms that can analyze transcripts of multi-stakeholder decision-making entities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device ap...

  6. Verbal rating of alternative research reactors using fuzzy decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An approach is introduced here for making decisions about alternative research reactor types based on their compatibility with the environment of Saudi Arabia and is applied to the choice between pool, light water tank, heavy water tank, and TRIGA reactors. The method is based on the fuzzy decision theory, and it allows for consideration of the availability of required local resources as well as ease of acquisition of imported resources, community acceptance, and future expandability. The use of fuzzy decision theory can overcome the numerical precision of a decision maker's judgment by allowing verbal rating and weighting for each attribute and subattribute

  7. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  8. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual's financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor "source of funding": students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (?RRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors "agreeableness" and "openness" showed moderate to modest - but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion. PMID:24624100

  9. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IngoVernaleken

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  10. Technical and economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood-waste fuels in a Finnish heating plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, I investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. I solved the electricity generation problem using optimization of the energy products and fuel mixtures based on energy efficiency and forest technology. The decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels. The optimal product and fuel mixtures were selected by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses. The combinatorial complexity of the problem required the use of adaptive techniques to solve a multiple-objective linear programming system with industrial relevance. I discuss the properties of the decision-support system and methodology and illustrate pricing of electricity generation based on real industrial data. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made based on a comprehensive technical and economic analysis that accounts for procurement of local forest fuels in a holistic supply chain model. -- Highlights: ? I use adaptive techniques to solve a multiple-objective linear programming system with industrial relevance. ? I investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels. ? The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made based on a comprehensive technical and economic analysis. ? The optimal product and fuel mixtures were selected by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

  11. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

  12. Thermo-economic analysis of a trigeneration HCPVT power plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selviaridis, Angelos; Burg, Brian R.; Wallerand, Anna Sophia; Maréchal, François; Michel, Bruno

    2015-09-01

    The increasing need for electricity and heat in a growing global economy must be combined with CO2 emissions reduction, in order to limit the human influence on the environment. This calls for energy-efficient and cost-competitive renewable energy systems that are able to satisfy both pressing needs. A High-Concentration Photovoltaic Thermal (HCPVT) system is a cogeneration concept that shows promising potential in delivering electricity and heat in an efficient and cost-competitive manner. This study investigates the transient behavior of the HCPVT system and presents a thermo-economic analysis of a MW-scale trigeneration (electricity, heating and cooling) power plant. Transient simulations show a fast dynamic response of the system which results in short heat-up intervals, maximizing heat recuperation throughout the day. Despite suboptimal coupling between demand and supply, partial heat utilization throughout the year and low COP of commercially available devices for the conversion of heat into cooling, the thermo-economic analysis shows promising economic behavior, with a levelized cost of electricity close to current retail prices.

  13. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  14. Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer

    OpenAIRE

    Corina PEL?U

    2012-01-01

    One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are anal...

  15. Taxation and Economic Growth : An Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Panel Data of WAEMU Countries

    OpenAIRE

    NANTOB, N'Yilimon

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of taxation on economic growth of the eight WAEMU countries. Among the critiques addressed to the public sector, numerous are those that refer principally to the negative effects which entail high weight and increasing of taxation. The growth rate can be influenced by economic policy choice relative to taxation which has an effect on the decisions of economic agents and is due to the productive public expenditures. The reason is that high level of taxati...

  16. Theory of imprevision from the economic and legal perspective of contract analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Radu ?tefan P?TRU

    2011-01-01

    The new realities of the 21st century ask for a revitalization of the economic and legal systems so as to overcome the effects of the economic crisis. The current economic crisis is at the same time a challenge for the scientific milieu which is called to find the best solutions for the reversal and adaptation of the main scientific institutions. For the legal system, the contract represents an essential factor both theoretically and practically so that the new legislative decisions appear to...

  17. Cortical Brain Activity Reflecting Attentional Biasing Toward Reward-Predicting Cues Covaries with Economic Decision-Making Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G; Huettel, Scott A; Woldorff, Marty G

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive choice behavior depends critically on identifying and learning from outcome-predicting cues. We hypothesized that attention may be preferentially directed toward certain outcome-predicting cues. We studied this possibility by analyzing event-related potential (ERP) responses in humans during a probabilistic decision-making task. Participants viewed pairs of outcome-predicting visual cues and then chose to wager either a small (i.e., loss-minimizing) or large (i.e., gain-maximizing) amount of money. The cues were bilaterally presented, which allowed us to extract the relative neural responses to each cue by using a contralateral-versus-ipsilateral ERP contrast. We found an early lateralized ERP response, whose features matched the attention-shift-related N2pc component and whose amplitude scaled with the learned reward-predicting value of the cues as predicted by an attention-for-reward model. Consistently, we found a double dissociation involving the N2pc. Across participants, gain-maximization positively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable gain-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional bias toward such cues. Conversely, loss-minimization was negatively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable loss-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional avoidance toward such stimuli. These results indicate that learned stimulus-reward associations can influence rapid attention allocation, and that differences in this process are associated with individual differences in economic decision-making performance. PMID:25139941

  18. An economic systems analysis of land mobile radio telephone services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroy, B. E.; Stevenson, S. M.

    1980-11-01

    This paper deals with the economic interaction of the terrestrial and satellite land-mobile radio service systems. The cellular, trunked and satellite land-mobile systems are described. Parametric equations are formulated to allow examination of necessary user thresholds and growth rates as functions of system costs. Conversely, first order allowable systems costs are found as a function of user thresholds and growth rates. Transitions between satellite and terrestrial service systems are examined. User growth rate density (user/year/km squared) is shown to be a key parameter in the analysis of systems compatibility. The concept of system design matching the price demand curves is introduced and examples are given. The role of satellite systems is critically examined and the economic conditions necessary for the introduction of satellite service are identified.

  19. Economic Analysis of Cassava Production in Benue State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.U. Odoemenem

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The study was undertaken to analyze the economics of cassava production in Benue State. Data for this study were collected from a sample of one hundred and sixteen small-scale cassava farmers randomly selected. The objectives of the study were to determine and rank the cost elements of cassava production in the study area; determine the returns to cassava production; and evaluate the profitability of cassava production in the study area. Socio-economic factors include age, educational background, marital status, sex, sources of labour, awareness of extension services, method of weed control, and method of farm land acquisition were identified. Data collected for the study were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The coefficient of determination (R2 is 0.616, suggesting that the used model has a high goodness of fit. Furthermore, the result of the statistical analysis shows that investing in cassava production enterprise is profitable.

  20. Factor Analysis of the Northeast Economic Zone's Logistics Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Wei; Wang, Jiaxin; Li, Tingting

    Along with the expanding regional logistics network, the area's logistics competition is very important because it enhances the entire area's economy. This paper is based on both the domestic and foreign theories and methods used with related subjects to study the content of the area's logistics competition. According to the level of economic development in Northeast region, the scale of logistics demand, the situation of logistics supply as well as the level of development of information, all establish the urban logistics competitiveness index system using the factor analysis method through the SPSS system to evaluate the competitiveness of the urban logistics which is very representative of the Northeast economic area. Finally, this paper uses the fore mentioned system to calculate the scores of 27 city's separated into 3 categories: The first including 4 cities (Shenyang, Harbin, Dalian, Changchun), the second having 3 cities (Jilin, Daqing, Anshan) and the final category has 20 cities (Fushun, Songyuan, Qiqihar, Baotou etc.).

  1. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.; Hunter, S.; Calzonetti, F.J.

    1992-10-01

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility`s participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities.

  2. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility's participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities

  3. Theory of imprevision from the economic and legal perspective of contract analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu ?tefan P?TRU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The new realities of the 21st century ask for a revitalization of the economic and legal systems so as to overcome the effects of the economic crisis. The current economic crisis is at the same time a challenge for the scientific milieu which is called to find the best solutions for the reversal and adaptation of the main scientific institutions. For the legal system, the contract represents an essential factor both theoretically and practically so that the new legislative decisions appear to be as highly important. As a particular case study, we intend to analyse the theory of imprevision both from the theoretical viewpoint and the one of practical consequences that the regulation of this institution might generate in the domestic legislative environment through the provisions of the New Civil Code. Far from our affiliation to the opinions that vividly sustain or reject the regulation of this theory, this article intends to be an objective analysis of the theory of imprevision representing one of the greatest challenges for the New Civil Code.

  4. Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-06-01

    This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.

  5. Thermo-economic analysis of Shiraz solar thermal power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaghoubi, M. [Academy of Science, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mokhtari, A.; Hesami, R. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). School of Engineering

    2007-07-01

    The Shiraz solar thermal power plant in Iran has 48 parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) which are used to heat the working oil. There is potential to significantly increase the performance and reduce the cost of PTC solar thermal electric technologies. Conventional energy analysis based on the first law of thermodynamics does qualitatively assess the various losses occurring in the components. Therefore, exergy analysis, based on the second law of thermodynamics, can be applied to better assess various losses quantitatively as well as qualitatively. This paper presented a newly developed exergy-economic model for the Shiraz solar thermal power plant. The objective was to find the minimum exergetic production cost (EPC), based on the second law of thermodynamics. The application of exergy-economic analysis includes the evaluation of utility supply costs for production plants, and the energy costs for process operations. The purpose of the analysis was to minimize the total operating costs of the solar thermal power plant by assuming a fixed rate of electricity production and process steam. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  6. A new decision model for economic evaluation of novel therapies for HCV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Ruggeri

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has given the license to two new direct-acting antiviral: sofosbuvir and simeprevir. The evidence provided by the studies, reported a high rate of SVR even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This and other innovative elements are potentially adept at changing the entire natural course of HCV. However, the dramatic prevalence rates of HCV observed in Italy, and the high prices that are expected to be required by the pharmaceutical industry, raises some critical issues about how to regulate access to such drugs. The objective of this article is to present a new decision model for the evaluation of novel therapies for HCV. This model is intended to provide a tool for the decision-maker that seeks to address the main issues related to the introduction of HCV new treatments. The model that we have structured follows the classic Bayesian approach, using data from reference literature for staging the action of treatments depending on the level of fibrosis (F0, F1, F2, F3, F4. The model is designed to consider patients with all genotypes and allows to make comparisons between innovative and traditional therapies (dual, triple, IFN free, PI combinations, etc., for both experienced and naïve patients. In addition, the model is used to simulate mixed cohorts of patients, representing a population with HCV with different levels of fibrosis and different genotypes. To show the potential of the model, we created some simple scenarios assuming different levels of SVR and pricing. The results of our model show that, even assuming an SVR rate of 100%, the administration of new treatments for HCV subjects F1 / 2 has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio not sustainable. In contrast, for the subjects F3 and F4, low incremental SVR rates and an incremental cost of the innovative therapy of € 40,000 would be cost effective. The added value of this model is its versatility and applicability to diverse assessment needs. In addition, the model offers an opportunity for reflection even to the industry, which in the years to come will have to develop strategies for entering the market and offer sustainable prices for decision-makers and at the same time remunerate the investment in research and development consistently with the expectations of the shareholders.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v15i3.945

  7. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making: a systematic literature review of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studies that was hard to explain. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Health economic models of the cost-effectiveness of scr...

  8. Decision-Making on International Relations: A Theoretical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Andy Afinotan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the course of everyday running of contemporary political and institutional systems, decision makers are often faced with a great complexity of big and small challenges requiring decisive action in line with laid down principles and rules of behaviour. In the process of trying to satisfy the various corporate interests within an institutional framework, the decision maker is faced with, and often has to choose between various competing policy options. Making use of library research methodology, the paper undertook a careful and critical appraisal of the ways and means by which decision makers arrive at basic decisions in the dynamic field of international politics, with a view to discovering basic consistencies that can form a basis for an understanding of the theory of decision making, in a descriptive explanatory and predictive perspective. The paper concluded that, since the decision making environment does not always manifest openness and popular participation, the ultimate decision maker’s sense of objectivity cannot always be guaranteed. 

  9. Economic analysis of two nuclear fuel cycle options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • We model equilibrium material flows processes on two nuclear fuel cycle options. • Monte Carlo simulation was used to get the statistical results with deviations. • We set the time frame to schematically describe the fuel cycle processes. • We determined all component costs separately discounted to the base year. - Abstract: There are two major nuclear fuel cycle options in the world: the once-through cycle (OTC) option and the closed fuel cycle (CFC) option which consists of the thermal reactor recycle (TRR) and the fast reactor recycle (FRR). Presently, the TRR option has been industrially implemented in some European countries while the FRR option is still under development internationally. In this paper, the economic analysis of OTC and TRR options was carried out using levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC). The two options were analyzed by calculating the equilibrium material flows as well as the economic costs of the overall fuel cycle components. The LFCCs of the two options were obtained as follows: OTC $5.94 ± 0.67 mills/kW h and TRR $6.13 ± 0.55 mills/kW h. Taking all uncertainties into considerations, the two options’ costs were in the same range. In addition, the sensitivity analysis was made to figure out the breakeven uranium price ($112/kgHM), at which uranium price from OTC was economically competitive to TRR option slightly. Under the most possible international circumstance, it indicates a decreasing breakeven uranium price in future, which means TRR option would be more economical than OTC option

  10. Use of external cost assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis for comparative evaluation of options for electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper addresses external cost and multi-criteria analyses carried out for selected future electricity generating systems of interest under the Swiss conditions. The external cost estimates are based on an application of the 'impact pathway approach', enhanced by earlier experience from extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The estimated total costs, i.e. the sum of internal and external costs, may serve as a measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems. The multi-criteria approach allows a more explicit consideration of the social dimension, which is highly important for the decision-making process. The applications of multi-criteria analyses illustrate the sensitivity of the results to the range of preferences expressed in the energy debate. Certain patterns in system ranking can be observed in spite of these sensitivities. Both total cost assessment and multi-criteria analysis are found to be useful, complementary instruments to support procedures for decision-making. (author)

  11. An economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solar-hydrogen energy systems have received some attention in recent years as viable alternatives to the present fossil-fuel based energy systems. This paper presents an economic analysis of three hydrogen liquefaction systems with an associated cost comparison. The analysis takes into account the energy cost, operation and maintenance, and fixed charges on capital investment. Electrical requirements of the compressors or energy cost of a liquefier are predominantly functions of the liquefier efficiency and are less dependent on the production rate required. The analysis showed that the cost of liquefying hydrogen is lowest for an optimized large-scale type liquid hydrogen plant and is highest for a simple conceptual liquid hydrogen plant. The liquefaction cost was also shown to reach a value of $0.63/kg for the optimized large-scale type plant at a production rate of 30,000 kg/h when the cost of electricity is $0.04/(kW h). (author)

  12. Valuing groundwater: a practical approach for integrating groundwater economic values into decision making - A case study in Namibia, Southern Africa

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    C, Bann; SC, Wood.

    Full Text Available Groundwater provides a range of services to people in Southern Africa; however, the benefits provided by these services are often not fully appreciated and factored into decisions about groundwater management and use. After outlining briefly the importance of groundwater in the region and the pressu [...] res facing groundwater, this paper discusses how economic valuation can help improve its management. The main focus of the paper is the presentation of the practical 5-step economic valuation methodology that has been developed as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Groundwater and Drought Management Project. This methodology can be generally applied to groundwater management issues across the SADC region. The methodology is based upon an ecosystem services approach which considers all the potential services that groundwater provides, which can result in improvements in human welfare. These services include provisioning services such as water for domestic use, agriculture and industry; regulating services such as the recharge of surface waters and carbon storage benefits; and cultural services such as the tourism associated with wildlife at groundwater-fed watering holes. The methodology incorporates a 2-tiered valuation approach. The Tier 1 valuation is based on market pricing and value-transfer approaches and can provide an initial view of the economic value of a resource in a particular use. A value-transfer tool has been developed, which allows the user to select from a menu of the currently available transfer values for use in an assessment. A Tier 2 valuation requires more detailed primary studies and may be required following a Tier 1 assessment where more certainty in decision-making is required. The methodology has been tested at 4 pilot sites in the region. An example of the application of the SADC groundwater-valuation methodology in Namibia is presented in this paper. The paper concludes with recommendations for the development of groundwater valuation in the region. Emphasis is placed on training, the commissioning of more groundwater-valuation studies and the need for more scientific research to facilitate the valuation of groundwater-regulating services.

  13. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  14. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  15. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems; Bioenergiasysteemien teknistaloudellinen analyysi. IEA Bioenergy Agreement Techno-economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  16. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly BENCHEVA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

  17. Economic performance of passive solar heating: a preliminary analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roach, F.; Noll, S.; Ben-David, S.

    1978-01-01

    As the interest in solar energy applications for residential space heating grows, it becomes imperative to evaluate the economic performance of alternative designs. For the thermal storage wall two types of storage medium--masonry (Trombe) and water are examined. In addition a night insulation option is included in the thermal storage wall concept, thus giving rise to four alternative passive designs. The economic performance of these alternative designs are evaluated on a state-by-state basis. Discussion of the methodology briefly reviews the architectural design criteria, solar performance characteristics, and the incremental solar cost of each solar design. Also included is a discussion of conventional energy costs, as well as the optimal sizing/feasibility criterion employed in the economic performance analysis. Nationwide feasibility results are reviewed for each alternative design. In addition to contracting the solar systems themselves, the effects of two incentive proposals--the National Energy Act (NEA) income tax credits and low interest loads--upon each design are examined. Finally, major conclusions are summarized for each design.

  18. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ? Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ? Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ? Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ? Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ? Additional research is needed to create a more precise policy solution.

  19. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

  20. Examination of European Union economic cohesion: A cluster analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Mazurek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past years majority of EU members experienced the highest economic decline in their modern history, but impacts of the global financial crisis were not distributed homogeneously across the continent. The aim of the paper is to examine a cohesion of European Union (plus Norway and Iceland in terms of an economic development of its members from the 1st of January 2008 to the 31st of December 2012. For the study five economic indicators were selected: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, labour productivity and government debt. Annual data from Eurostat databases were averaged over the whole period and then used as an input for a cluster analysis. It was found that EU countries were divided into six different clusters. The most populated cluster with 14 countries covered Central and West Europe and reflected relative homogeneity of this part of Europe. Countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain shared their own cluster of the most affected countries by the recent crisis as well as the Baltics and the Balkans states in another cluster. On the other hand Slovakia and Poland, only two countries that escaped a recession, were classified in their own cluster of the most successful countries

  1. The MATHEMATICA economic analysis of the Space Shuttle System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiss, K. P.

    1973-01-01

    Detailed economic analysis shows the Thrust Assisted Orbiter Space Shuttle System (TAOS) to be the most economic Space Shuttle configuration among the systems studied. The development of a TAOS Shuttle system is economically justified within a level of space activities between 300 and 360 Shuttle flights in the 1979-1990 period, or about 25 to 30 flights per year, well within the U.S. Space Program including NASA and DoD missions. If the NASA and DoD models are taken at face value (624 flights), the benefits of the Shuttle system are estimated to be $13.9 billion with a standard deviation of plus or minus $1.45 billion in 1970 dollars (at a 10% social rate of discount). If the expected program is modified to 514 flights (in the 1979-1990 period), the estimated benefits of the Shuttle system are $10.2 billion, with a standard deviation of $940 million (at a 10% social rate of discount).

  2. Projects Bidding Decision Risk Analysis Based on Multi-factor Clustering Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Project risk management is a very complex work which the pre-bid decision-making risk is one of the important aspects among. This study is based on the consideration the facts that the general contractor risk management of project is a strong empirical work as well as the indicators described the project characteristic are mostly qualitative indicators. It adjusts the usual quantification mode of qualitative indicators did in the past. It introduced cluster analysis technique, established the analysis model based on the multi-objectives function optimum factors and hybrid scale stepwise clustering. Additionally, through the approach of established projects sample risk factor data mining, this study proposed scientific theory evidence for the decision making of general contractor construction project bidding.

  3. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: an analysis of Commission decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Carree, M; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We report a range of summary statistics concerning report route, investigation duration, length of the decision, decision type, imposed fines, number of parties, sector classification, and Commissioner...

  4. Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manvinder Singh Pahwa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

  5. Economic analysis of cloud-based desktop virtualization implementation at a hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo Sooyoung

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cloud-based desktop virtualization infrastructure (VDI is known as providing simplified management of application and desktop, efficient management of physical resources, and rapid service deployment, as well as connection to the computer environment at anytime, anywhere with anydevice. However, the economic validity of investing in the adoption of the system at a hospital has not been established. Methods This study computed the actual investment cost of the hospital-wide VDI implementation at the 910-bed Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in Korea and the resulting effects (i.e., reductions in PC errors and difficulties, application and operating system update time, and account management time. Return on investment (ROI, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR indexes used for corporate investment decision-making were used for the economic analysis of VDI implementation. Results The results of five-year cost-benefit analysis given for 400 Virtual Machines (VMs; i.e., 1,100 users in the case of SNUBH showed that the break-even point was reached in the fourth year of the investment. At that point, the ROI was 122.6%, the NPV was approximately US$192,000, and the IRR showed an investment validity of 10.8%. From our sensitivity analysis to changing the number of VMs (in terms of number of users, the greater the number of adopted VMs was the more investable the system was. Conclusions This study confirms that the emerging VDI can have an economic impact on hospital information system (HIS operation and utilization in a tertiary hospital setting.

  6. THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ACTUAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile ROBU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Tourism sector. Under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises, sharp exchange rate fluctuations, increase terrorism acts in several region with tourism potential Tourism demand slowed significantly. Yet, despite the current difficulties, the Tourism sector remains a critical economic sector worldwide and one that provides significant potential for economic growth and development internationally. A growing national Tourism sector contributes to raises national income, employment, and can improve a country's balance of payments. The sector is thus an important driver of growth and prosperity and,  within developing countries, it can play a leading role in poverty reduction. Despite the overall importance of developing the Tourism sector, many obstacles at the national level continue to hinder its development. This analysis aims to serve two purposes. First, we intend to provide useful comparative information for making decisions related to business and tourism development. Second, and more importantly, we hope that the analysis provides an opportunity for the Tourism industry to highlight the obstacles to Tourism competitiveness.

  7. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making : a systematic literature review of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    SØgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studies that was hard to explain.

  8. APPLICATION AND TESTING OF GPFARM: A FARM AND RANCH DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

    Science.gov (United States)

    GPFARM is a decision support software package being developed by the Great Plains Systems Research Unit of USDA-ARS. The software package incorporates three stand-alone components: a simulation model, an economic tool, and an agricultural information system. GPFARM can be run with either historica...

  9. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Saarni, Samuli I.; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health te...

  10. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health techn...

  11. MCDA tools and Risk Analysis: the Decision Deck Project

    OpenAIRE

    Mayag, Brice; Cailloux, Olivier; Mousseau, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    Multiple Criteria Decision Aid (MCDA) aims at helping a decision maker (DM) in the representation of his preferences over a set of alternatives, on the basis of several criteria which are often contradictory. In addition to the presence of a DM, MCDA process requires a specification of criteria, alternatives and preferential information given by the DM. Hence many methods have been developed in order to solve MCDA problems (ELECTRE methods, AHP, etc.). The interconnexion between MCDA and risk...

  12. A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decision-makers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was - 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable. (author)

  13. Employing SWOT Analysis in Coursework on the Geographies of Regional Economic Development and Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalafsky, Ronald V.; Sonnichsen, Tyler

    2015-01-01

    The use of SWOT analysis is a means through which geography students can investigate key concepts in economic geography and essential topics in regional economic development. This article discusses the results of a course project where economic geography students employed SWOT analysis to explore medium-sized metropolitan areas across the southern…

  14. Smoking cessation: an economic analysis and review of varenicline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele A Faulkner

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Michele A FaulknerCreighton University School of Pharmacy and Health Professions, Omaha, NE, USAAbstract: Despite efforts to decrease tobacco use, smoking continues to be a leading cause of preventable morbidity and premature death. The associated economic burden is substantial, both in the form of direct costs (healthcare expenditures and indirect costs (lost productivity, regardless of whether the burden is assessed from the standpoint of an employer, a health plan, or society as a whole. Cessation programs are considered among the most cost-effective in healthcare, and are often used as a benchmark for other medical interventions. This analysis specifically considers the cost-effectiveness of varenicline, a novel ?4?2 partial agonist used for smoking cessation, in comparison to other approved therapies. Clinical trial data have demonstrated that varenicline has the ability to decrease cravings and withdrawal symptoms, and lessen positive reinforcement associated with smoking. Varenicline’s novel mechanism has translated into superior efficacy in comparison to other available therapies. For this reason, despite an initial cost that typically exceeds that of other medications, varenicline is a cost-effective option for smoking cessation.Keywords: cost-effectiveness, economic analysis, smoking cessation, varenicline 

  15. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products. PMID:21871522

  16. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to conclude that the managers of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions. Overall, the model seems to be robust to tests of its specification and does a better job of describing the data than do simpler models of the decision making process. Limitations in the data do not allow us to perform the same tests in a larger cross-section of utility companies. However, we are able to estimate transaction cost parameters for many firms and these do not seem to vary significantly from those of PGE. This evidence does not cause us to reject our hypothesis that managerial behavior is consistent with a model in which managers maximize shareholder value.

  17. Ranking Economic History Journals : A Citation-Based Impact-Adjusted Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    2009-01-01

    This study ranks - for the first time - 12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, ou...

  18. Systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccination programs in mainland China: Are they sufficient to inform decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xiong-Fei; Griffiths, Ulla K; Pennington, Mark; Yu, Hongjie; Jit, Mark

    2015-11-17

    The purpose of the study was to systematically review economic evaluations of vaccine programs conducted in mainland China. We searched for economic evaluations of vaccination in China published prior to August 3, 2015 in eight English-language and three Chinese-language databases. Each article was appraised against the 19-item Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list (CHEC-list). We found 23 papers evaluating vaccines against hepatitis B (8 articles), Streptococcus pneumoniae (5 articles), human papillomavirus (3 articles), Japanese encephalitis (2 articles), rotavirus (2 articles), hepatitis A (1 article), Enterovirus 71 (1 article) and influenza (1 article). Studies conformed to a mean of 12 (range: 6-18) items in the CHEC-list criteria. Five of six Chinese-language articles conformed to fewer than half of the 19 criteria items. The main criteria that studies failed to conform to included: inappropriate measurement (20 articles) and valuation (18 articles) of treatment and/or vaccination costs, no discussion about distributional implications (18 articles), missing major health outcomes (14 articles), no discussion about generalizability to other contexts (14 articles), and inadequate sensitivity analysis (13 articles). In addition, ten studies did not include major cost components of vaccination programs, and nine did not report outcomes in terms of life years even in cases where QALYs or DALYs were calculated. Only 13 studies adopted a societal perspective for analysis. All studies concluded that the appraised vaccination programs were cost-effective except for one evaluation of universal 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) in children. However, three of the five studies on PCV-7 showed poor overall quality, and the number of studies on vaccines other than hepatitis B vaccine and PCV-7 was limited. In conclusion, major methodological flaws and reporting problems exist in current economic evaluations of vaccination programs in China. Local guidelines for good practice and reporting, institutional mechanisms and education may help to improve the overall quality of these evaluations. PMID:26435189

  19. Comparative analysis of eu membership candidate countries legal economic framework (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Zharova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The article represents the results of analytical review and comparative analysis of EU membership candidate countries legal economic framework for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. The aim of the research is to show opportunities and illuminate the gaps for timely fulfillment of obligation in framework of euro integration process. The results of the analysis. The choice of countries is determined by similarity of political, economic, and social conditions including, inter alia: 1 the aftermath of the global economic crisis; 2 political crisis; 3 threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity, including the risk of armed conflict (the unlawful annexation of the Crimea and Sevastopol and destabilization in the Eastern Ukraine; occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia; and the Transnistria conflict in Moldova. Economic growth based on more efficient use of available scarce resources is the key to successful withstanding and overcoming these adverse factors. It implies that implementing the Association Agreement is closely linked with the transition toward a green economy. The comparative analysis determined some similarities in positive shifts for all countries. The following positive shifts characterizing the progress achieved by the countries can be highlighted: demonstration of proactive efforts toward meeting their commitments under the Association Agreement; existing policies, practices and programmes aiming to support the sustainable industrial and business development; reflection of the sustainable development and green economy issues in the official development strategies and their considering to be a priority; activation of effort to develop a system of specific indicators including those that can be used for measuring the efficiency of national policies; incorporation sustainable development objectives in the local development agendas and environmental action plans; taking active part in the international programmes focusing on various aspects of sustainable development, introduction of best practices and technologies; continuing to take considerable efforts to disseminate information about sustainable development and green economy among various stakeholders (to facilitate this, the Aarhus Centre has been established in each country. Conclusions and directions of further researches. In the article is underlined that first steps to be taken as a matter of priority toward implementing the sustainable development and green economy objectives should include the development of the Governmental Action Plan to support transition toward a green growth model; establishment of the governmental coordination and information centre; adoption of a unified system of sustainable development and green growth indicators; development and introduction of a smart system of economic incentives including tax exemptions, no-interest or low-interest loans for businesses introducing resource-saving technologies and environmental protection facilities (wastewater treatment facilities, waste recycling plants etc.; legislation of mechanisms facilitating the involvement of the public in resource management and decision-making.

  20. Global analysis of dynamic models in economics and finance essays in honour of Laura Gardini

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    Exploring cutting-edge analysis methods for dynamic models in economics, finance and the social sciences, this collection celebrates the remarkable academic Laura Gardini. It includes material relevant to asset pricing, subsidy games and economic geography.