WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  2. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Goodchild, Michael F.; Luc Anselin; Linna Li; Wenwen Li

    2013-01-01

    Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) for urban economic analysis and simulation. Th...

  3. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  4. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  5. The Economics and Politics of Trade Policy: An Empirical Analysis of ITC Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Wendy L.; Prusa, Thomas J.

    1996-01-01

    We study the determinants of trade policy decisions focusing specifically on antidumping and countervailing duty statutes administered by the International Trade Commission (ITC). Using detailed industry, import, and political pressure data we model ITC decision making, weighing the relative impact of economic and political factors in predicting policy outcomes. We find the ITC's decision making is significantly influenced by both economic and political factors. However, because an industry h...

  6. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

  7. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to thesite remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale, nationwide disease outbreaks that are of special interest to DHS. MESA has been developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and has benefited from the world-class experience in supercomputing application development held by LLNL staff as well as the best-in-class high performance computing infrastructure in place at LLNL. MESA incorporates novel architectural features that permit it to make efficient use of available compute cycles by dynamically increasing the fidelity of the simulation in spatial (geopolitical) regions where relevant activity is occurring and keeping other regions aggregated into a computationally simpler representation. In addition to the MESA epi and economic models, the MESA DSS incorporates other key components. Integral to the parametric approach MESA employs to setup and define disease outbreak scenarios is a GUI that enables the MESA user to efficiently manage the thousands of parameters required by the simulator. The GUI provides individual parameter editors for groups of variables that support a common high level function, such as disease introduction, spread, control strategies, etc. It also provides a capability to browse through multiple study projects and develop n-additional outbreak scenarios per project through successive refinement of existing scenarios. Finally, the MESA GUI links post-processing applications that permit extraction of key data from MESA raw output, generation of spreadsheets, and geospatial mapping of simulation results. The MESA GUI is a standalone application that normally runs on the user's desktop, although its Java source code is portable and can execute under virtually any modern operating system. The final major component of the MESA DSS is the Scenario Bank, which is a web-served archive of unclassified FAD study content. The Scenario Bank implements a hierarchy of spaces, structured primarily along organizational lines (e.g., 'USDA', 'LLNL', etc), that permits participants to store simulator inputs, outputs, analysis results, reports, etc. and explicitly control

  9. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for a large US automaker will be developed. A comprehensive total cost of ownership model will be constructed to calculate and compare the cost and benefits of PHEVs, conventional vehicles (CVs) and HEVs. Then a comprehensive literature review of PHEVs penetration rate studies will be developed to review and analyze the primary purposes, methods, and results of studies of PHEV market penetration. Finally a multi-criteria modeling system will incorporate results of the support model results. In this project, the models, analysis and results will provide a broader understanding of the benefits and costs of PHEV technology and the parties to whom those benefits accrue. The findings will provide important information for consumers, automakers and policy makers to understand and define HEVs and PHEVs costs, benefits, expected penetration rate and the preferred vehicle design and technology scenario to meet the requirements of policy, society, industry and consumers.

  10. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external finarequirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  11. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying power generating cost of power plants in this paper, we will use social discount rate at about 12 % and discount rate at about 5, 7, 9, 10 and 12%. For local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) is about 14.60 and 7.53% respectively. The calculation of capital investment cost of nuclear power plant in Thailand will use 1,139 MWe PWR for reference plant. Then we breakdown cost by using size adjustment to 1,000 MWe, material/equipment and labor ratio adjustment, time adjustment, and local adjustment which are suitable for situation in Thailand. To compare the capital investment cost and power generation cost, we calculate by using lifetime levelised cost, with thermal power plant such as coal-fired (1,000 MWe), oil-fired (1,000 MWe), and natural gas (600 MWe). From the comparison of power generation cost per kWh by using discount rate of 12%, we found that the power generation cost from nuclear fuel is higher than fossil fuel at about 1.27-1.37 times. The higher or lower discount rate will affect the comparison results. For the sensitivity analysis in comparing the power plant of Thailand case study, we calculate by using discount rate of 5, 7, 10, and 15%, in 4-9 years construction period and for 25-30 years plant life. At a discount rate of 5% it shows that the power generation cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than other thermal power plants and the power generation cost is about 28.13-29.68 mills/kWh. The power generation cost of nuclear power plant will be about 31.29-32.03 mills/kWh for the 7% discount rate and for 4-6 years construction period. We have found that it is cheaper than oil-fired and combined cycle power plants. The other factors affect capital investment and power generation cost are escalation of materials/equipment and labour, local exchange rate, local inflation rate, and the selection of account system for estimation which is different from other countries. Types of nuclear power plant and vendor will also affect capital investment. By using economic analysis for cost benefit analysis (CBA) of power generation cost of nuclear power p

  13. Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-07-01

    Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed. PMID:12705948

  14. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  15. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  16. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  17. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to grassland and no-till) in terms of sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields and loads. Input data included characteristics of reservoirs, land cover, soil, agricultural management, livestock management and point sources of pollution. The present study continues from there by first assessing the cost-effectiveness of different sets of BMPs, based on farm budgets and environmental criteria selected by the user. We subsequently examine monetary trade-offs between on-farm costs and social value of water quality improvements using cost-benefit ratios. Because water quality is a non-excludable and non-rivalrous good, its benefits to society are evaluated with non-market evaluation techniques mostly based on quality-constrained recreational use of water. From a policy perspective, cost-effectiveness analysis is very helpful in assisting the decision maker in the highly complex process of defining priorities with respect to BMP strategies. With a user-friendly interface for economic analysis integrated into GIBSI, watershed organizations and stakeholders can use such a tool to promote sustainable agricultural practices and water use. This submission is part of Watershed Evaluation of BMPs project (WEBs) funded by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Ducks Unlimited Canada

  18. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    OpenAIRE

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic...

  19. [Contribution of economic evaluation and budget impact analysis to public decision in health: the example of breast cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrier, L; Philip, T

    2010-03-01

    The aim of this paper is to draw the reader's attention to the problem of dissemination of costly innovations, particularly in the field of oncology, in a context of scarce resources.Comparison of five economic aggregates related to health and the gross domestic product captures the weight of this sector in the national economy but also its cost to the community. A focus on oncology shows that during the year 2004, the cost of cancer in France, all sites being taken into account, amounted to 10.9 billion euros and the societal cost to 32 billion euros (2% of gross domestic product). The cost of breast cancer (36% of all female cancers) reached 1.5 billion euros for treatment and 3.5 billion euros for societal expenses (0.2% of gross domestic product). Due to the significant, rapid expansion of these costs (+19.2% in 2006 and 18.5% in 2007 for diagnosis-related group outliers) but also to the scarcity of resources, the development of costly innovations remains problematic. This article, based on concrete examples of breast cancer treatment, provides information on the contribution of health technology assessment (particularly cost-utility and budget impact analyses) to public decision. Economic evaluation, in particular, cost-utility assessment, allows comparison of costs and consequences (generic result usually expressed in quality-adjusted life years) in order to prioritize diagnostic and/or therapeutic strategies and to make choices based on social acceptability. Budget impact analysis, without consideration of efficacy, makes it possible to balance the financing needs arising from the adoption of a costly innovation with the paying capabilities of a given institution. PMID:20159674

  20. The reliability analysis--an aid to decision-making in the economic optimization of alternative power plant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Using the example of the moisture separator drains system for a 1300 MW nuclear power plant with PWR, this lecture will demonstrate the calculation procedure to assist decision-making (reliability/expected losses/economic viability) for alternative design concepts. A critical examination of the results establishes that owing to the inadequate quality of the reliability parameters applied for the components used, a grey zone occurs in which no statistically assured statements can be made as to the economic benefits of the one or other alternative concepts

  1. Economics: Scarcity and Citizen Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliard, June V.; Morton, John S.

    1981-01-01

    Maintaining that economics can contribute significantly to the achievement of citizenship education goals within the social studies program, this article offers information on concepts for analyzing economic policies, dealing with policy issues in the classroom, and understanding the relationship of scarcity to decision making. (DB)

  2. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY, the probability for cost-effectiveness of a collaborative practice would exceed 50%. At 20,000,000 KRW per QALY, which is recommended using per capita gross domestic product (GDP as the threshold, the probability would be 72.3%. Conclusions On the basis of our findings, acupuncture collaborative therapy for patients with chronic LBP may be cost-effective if the usual threshold is applied. Further empirical studies are required to overcome the limitations of uncertainties and improve the precision of the results.

  3. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the STI treatment of an abscessed mandibular molar (74.75 and 71.47 respectively and maxillary incisor (86.24 and 84.91 respectively. This held up to a sensitivity analysis when the success of root canal therapy and the risk of damage to the adjacent tooth were varied. The RPD for both the molar and incisor was the favored treatment based on a cost-utility (3.85 and 2.74 CND$ per year of tooth saved respectively and cost-benefit analysis (0.92 to 0.60 CND$ of cost per $ of benefit, respectively for a prosthetic clinical survival of 5-years. Conclusion The position of the abscessed tooth and the amount of insurance coverage influences the utility and rank assigned by patients to the different treatment options. STI and CDB have optimal EUVs for a 5-year survival outcome, and RPD has significantly lower cost providing the better cost:benefit ratio.

  4. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior. PMID:25205006

  5. Decision tables and logic in decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasziou, P; Hilden, J

    1986-01-01

    Unmanageable bushy decision trees result when a decision analysis involves several investigations. They can be simplified for riskless tests by deriving the maximum expected utility decision table for the problem as an intermediate step. This table can be logically summarized as Boolean expressions involving the tests. A minimum-cost testing sequence may then be found by manipulation of the Boolean formulas. The relationship between the resulting decision criteria and the receiver operating characteristic is shown. PMID:3736377

  6. A Multidimensional Framework for Financial-Economic Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Hallerbach, W. G. P. M.; Spronk, J.

    2003-01-01

    Most financial-economic decisions are made consciously, with a clear and constant drive to ???good???, ???better??? or even ???optimal??? decisions. Nevertheless, many decisions in practice do not earn these qualifications, despite the availability of financial economic theory, decision sciences and ample resources. We plea for the development of a multidimensional framework to support financial economic decision processes. Our aim is to achieve a better integration of available theory and de...

  7. Organic farming and multi-criteria decisions : an economic survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Tove; Olsen, SØren BØye

    Organic food production is a sphere where decision making is multi-facetted and complex. This applies to producers, political decision makers and consumers alike. This paper provides an overview of the economic methods that can aid such multi criteria decision making. We first provide an outline of the many different Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques available and their relative advantages and disadvantages. In addition, theoretical and practical problems related to the use of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and MCA respectively are briefly discussed. We then review the MCA literature on case studies on organic farming. Based on this review we provide directional markers for future research where MCA may possibly be applied and adapted in order to provide useful knowledge and support for decision makers in the context of organic farming.

  8. Clinical Decision Analysis Using Decision Maker

    OpenAIRE

    Beck, J. Robert; Letarte, Alan L.

    1985-01-01

    Decision Maker is an advanced computer program for decision tree analysis, especially as applied to medical problems. Written in Turbo PASCAL for the IBM PC, it provides flexible tree structure and multiple types of analyses. In this paper the IBM version 5.3 is described in detail, and work in progress on a graphical, Apple Macintosh version is presented.

  9. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; SØrensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated.

  10. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  11. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  12. Ethics in economic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Leliveld, Marijke Christina

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation sheds more light on ethics in economic decision-making. Over the course of nine experiments, I studied (a) when people adhere to ethical standards like the do-no-harm principle, and (b) how people respond to situations in which ethical standards are violated by studying not only punishing behavior but also compensation behavior. I show that when people know that by furthering their self-interest they harm another person (either by taking from or by allocating a loss to the o...

  13. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. PMID:23317834

  14. Decision Analysis and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ryder, Hilary F.; Mcdonough, Christine; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Lurie, Jon D.

    2009-01-01

    Healthcare decision-making can be complex, often requiring decision makers to weigh serious trade-offs, consider patients’ values, and incorporate evidence in the face of uncertainty. Medical decisions are made implicitly by clinicians and other decision-makers on a daily basis. Decisions based largely on personal experience are subject to many biases. Decision analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis are systematic approaches used to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty ...

  15. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  16. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  17. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: Patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shepperd Sasha; Balevi Ben

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC), a single tooth implant (STI), a conventional dental bridge (CDB), and a partial removable denture (RPD)) have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility pat...

  18. HERRAMIENTAS TEORICO CONCEPTUALES PARA EL ANÁLISIS DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES EN COMITÉS DE ECONOMIA PÚBLICA / CONCEPTUAL THEORETICAL TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS COMMITTEES

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Francisca, Salinas Esteban; Munir Andrés, Jalil Barney.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es un trabajo de carácter teórico la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública. Se expondrá en primer lugar algunos conceptos básicos sobre la toma de decisiones, tales como: 1- las condiciones, 2- los factores individuales, 3- grupales y 4- las clasificaciones de las decisione [...] s, especialmente relacionadas al campo de las políticas públicas. Posteriormente, se presentarán algunos de los modelos sobre toma de decisiones relacionados con vertientes de la teoría económica y trabajos empíricos sobre la toma de decisiones en comités de economía pública, tanto fiscal como monetaria, los cuales pueden servir como marco de referencia para futuras investigaciones. Abstract in english This article is a theoretical work on the topic of decision making in public economics committees. It will present a First some basics about decisions such as: 1 conditions - 2 individual factors 3 - group and 4 - classifications of particular decisions related to the field of public policy. Later i [...] n January - will be presented some models of decision making related to aspects of economic theory and 2 - empirical work on decision making in committees specifically in public economics committees both fiscal and monetary, which can serve as a framework for reference for future research.

  19. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  20. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference for couples. Before the birth, the future may be vague. After the birth, life without a child becomes unimaginable. PMID:12291178

  1. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  2. Can neuroimaging inform economic theories of decision making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farb NA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Norman AS FarbRotman Research Institute, Baycrest, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Neuroimaging has grown in prominence with the popularization of relatively inexpensive and noninvasive techniques. The popular conception of neuroimaging is that it can finely describe a person's internal states and proclivities, providing veridical evidence in real-world situations, such as criminal trials, or in predicting consumer behavior. However, the scientific reality is far from this ideal; current neuroimaging techniques lack the precision to predict specific behaviors or preferences. Nonetheless, these techniques still possess considerable utility in describing forms of cognition that are recruited during decision making, such as an individual's tendency to focus on risk or reward. Such investigations can inform economic theory by characterizing contextual influences in decision making, revealing sources of bias in how value is appraised, generating new research hypotheses, and eventually leading to a more complete theory of human behavior. This review paper summarizes recent research that advances our understanding of the neural networks underlying decision making and outlines the strengths and limitations of current neuroimaging analysis techniques for informing neuroeconomic theory.Keywords: neuroimaging, fMRI, decision making, neuroeconomics, systems neuroscience

  3. Telecommunications Consumers: A Behavioural Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Lunn, Pete

    2011-01-01

    This paper argues that telecommunications markets present the consumer with a decision-making environment that is particularly likely to be prone to established biases in consumer decision-making. The analysis identifies four properties of telecommunications markets, which in combination are probably unique and which may make the sector prey to biases identified by behavioural economics. The analysis offers a range of known behavioural phenomena that, first, may help to explain the generally ...

  4. The role of economic evaluations in health care decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Lundkvist, Jonas

    2005-01-01

    Increasing health care expenditures, a rapid introduction of new medical technologies and a need for cost containment policies in most countries during the last decades have led to a growing interest in information from economic evaluations for decision making about resource allocation in health care. Economic evaluations can provide valuable information in many types of decision making, e.g. related to the use of drugs, other health care interventions/programs and investmen...

  5. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability should have a very broad applicability

  6. Decision analysis for nuclear safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper examines some efficient data for analyzing and interpreting safeguards data. Decision analysis is used to detect missing material (possible diversion) in dynamic materials accounting, in which the plant is divided into discrete accounting areas. The different statistical tests used in decision analysis are discussed. To demonstrate the application of decision analysis, results are presented of a study of materials accounting in the Pu purification process in a fuel reprocessing plant similar to Barnwell; the sensitivity to diversion was determined. 36 references, 6 figures, 5 tables

  7. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  8. Threshold analysis of decision tables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasziou, P; Hilden, J

    1986-01-01

    When a decision table is used to find a maximum expected utility testing strategy, it is based on a given prior probability distribution of diseases. In the two-disease situation, a threshold analysis over all prior probabilities can be done using threshold transformations of the points of indifference between treatments. This results in a set of prior probability intervals each with its own unique decision rule. The Boolean expression for the table indicates the acceptable testing strategies. A decision table analysis may then be extended to include invasive or costly investigations. The technique represents a saving in time and effort compared with standard decision tree approaches, especially where investigative recommendations are to be made for a broad range of prior probabilities, e.g., where initial symptoms and signs are considered before the investigations. PMID:3736378

  9. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  10. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country`s future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment.

  11. Household Consumption, Female Employment and Fertility Decisions; A Microeconometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalwij, A. S.

    1999-01-01

    Abstract: This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that higher waged women schedule births later in life compared to lower waged women. Furthermore, the effects of a household's financial wealth on the female employment and fertility decisions is ...

  12. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  13. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  14. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas R. Stabler

    2008-01-01

    In this case study, two students have been asked to conduct a “systems analysis” study to determine whether ethanol derived from corn or biodiesel prepared from soybeans is the more energy efficient alternative fuel. The students must investigate the two systems very broadly to determine all energy inputs and outputs. When the corn-to-ethanol system turns out to be less energy efficient, the students are asked to consider the political and economic consequences of this and the role that science plays in making policy decisions. The case is designed for general chemistry courses and non-science majors’ chemistry courses.

  15. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

    2009-10-01

    What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

  16. Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

    2014-10-01

    Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. PMID:25105951

  17. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  18. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  19. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  20. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

  1. A Decision Model for Companies Debt Reduction in Economic Crisis Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Radu, Riana Iren

    2011-01-01

    Businesses today face a dynamic economic environment transformed by the direct effects of economic crisis. In these circumstances managers of entities are forced to adjust their actions in the economic environment through various kinds of decisions. Attention is paid to important financial decisions. Financial issues touch every aspect of economic life of an agent. In this context, is fitting the management of debts. Debt management problem can be addressed through a decision-making model. In...

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  3. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  4. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market risk management to the business model of many companies.

  5. Health economic evaluation methods for decision-making in preventive dentistry

    OpenAIRE

    Oscarson, Nils

    2006-01-01

    The aims of this thesis were to evaluate caries-preventive measures from a societal perspective, to demonstrate the use of resources in preventive dentistry, to develop and discuss techniques suitable for evaluating dental care costs and outcomes, and to test costs and consequences within a health economic decision model adapted to preventive dental care. The thesis is based on three separate studies with three separate cohorts. In the first study, performed at a single dental clinic, analysi...

  6. 2008 Economic crisis analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Golmohammadpoor Azar, Kamran; Mansoori, Masoud

    2011-01-01

    Recent economic crisis started from the American Housing. In 2005, the price of housing started to grow and for gaining more profit, the banks inclined to housing and provided applicants with lots of facilities. With the burst of price bubbles, intense reduction of prices occurred in the housing market and the loan recipients did not have any motives to repay their loans. Therefore, the credit- providing and official organs that had given lots of facilities to the housing sector faced crisis...

  7. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  8. Decision analysis for resource allocation in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Susan; Claxton, Karl; Sculpher, Mark

    2008-10-01

    This paper addresses the use of economic evaluation to inform resource allocation decisions within health care systems about which interventions to reimburse and whether additional research should be funded. A social decision-making view of economic evaluation, that is to maximize health gains subject to an exogenous budget constraint, is adopted. A brief overview of the components of an economic evaluation is presented. Particular attention is paid to how uncertainty is inherent to decisions about resource allocation, the consequences of that uncertainty and how it can be incorporated informatively into economic evaluation. A Bayesian approach to uncertainty is used as it meets the needs of social decision-making, allowing analysts to quantify the probability that an intervention is cost-effective given the available evidence and to quantify the expected value of further research. The discussion covers methods to represent parameter and structural uncertainty and considers the role of formal elicitation of expert judgements. The association between decisions to approve interventions for reimbursement and decisions about future research funding, and how value of information analysis can be used to formalize this link, is explained. Recent developments in the UK highlight the evolving policy environment for economic evaluation, such as the Cooksey report on the funding of UK health research, the review of the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme by the Office of Fair Trading and the update of the methodological guidelines issued by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. The paper concludes by describing ongoing methodological work designed to meet the challenges of undertaking decision analysis for resource allocation in health care. PMID:18806189

  9. Implicit race attitudes predict trustworthiness judgments and economic trust decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Damian A.; Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Banaji, Mahzarin R.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2011-01-01

    Trust lies at the heart of every social interaction. Each day we face decisions in which we must accurately assess another individual's trustworthiness or risk suffering very real consequences. In a global marketplace of increasing heterogeneity with respect to nationality, race, and multiple other social categories, it is of great value to understand how implicitly held attitudes about group membership may support or undermine social trust and thereby implicitly shape the decisions we make. Recent behavioral and neuroimaging work suggests that a common mechanism may underlie the expression of implicit race bias and evaluations of trustworthiness, although no direct evidence of a connection exists. In two behavioral studies, we investigated the relationship between implicit race attitude (as measured by the Implicit Association Test) and social trust. We demonstrate that race disparity in both an individual's explicit evaluations of trustworthiness and, more crucially, his or her economic decisions to trust is predicted by that person's bias in implicit race attitude. Importantly, this relationship is robust and is independent of the individual's bias in explicit race attitude. These data demonstrate that the extent to which an individual invests in and trusts others with different racial backgrounds is related to the magnitude of that individual's implicit race bias. The core dimension of social trust can be shaped, to some degree, by attitudes that reside outside conscious awareness and intention. PMID:21518877

  10. Multicriteria decision analysis with influence diagram / decision tree models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A case study has been performed to determine how multiple attributes as risk and cost criteria can be used for comparing severe accident management strategies for nuclear power plants. A mixed influence diagram/decision tree modelling technique has been used to model the strategies, combining the benefits of both separate techniques. It is concluded that multiple attributes like individual risk, group risk and strategy implementation costs can be addressed. A full-scope multicriteria decision analysis has been performed. (orig.)

  11. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  12. Life extension economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

  13. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative contextxt

  14. Analysis of Investment Decision by Nigerian Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel TSADO

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Decisions taken by Pension Fund Administrators whether to invest in a particular asset class or not depend upon relative importance of different factors. The relative importance of these factors and the interactions among decisions taken by PFAs has remained unknown to the contributors. Therefore, this study is designed to examine factors affecting investment decision in PFAs. This research work examined the factors that influence investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs. The study also evaluated investment decisions in Nigerian PFAs based on both qualitative and quantitative factors.
    Primary data were used for this research, which were generated through the use of questionnaire. Simple random sampling technique was used to select respondents from five PFAs in Nigeria. Data collected were analysed using factor analysis.
    The result of the study indicates that three factors were considered by PFA managers when making investment decisions: Economic, Risk and Security of real estate factors. The study concluded that National Pension Commission should be a bit flexible in its regulatory restriction of investment areas of PFAs to enhance a better investment decision making process. The study therefore, recommended that PFAs should use reward structure to ensure accountability of those that are in charge of investment decision making.

    Key words: Investment; Decision making; Pension Fund Administrator; Factor analysis; National pension commission

  15. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the US Department of Commerce, is the self-proclaimed "nation's accountant." BEA provides figures on the national, regional and international economic accounts. National accounts data include gross domestic product (GDP), input-output accounts, and gross product by industry. Regional accounts data include information on gross state product and state personal income, while international economic accounts include information on exports, imports and capital flows to and from the United States. The site also contains articles explaining how the accounts are calculated.

  16. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  17. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  18. Energy-economics-environment analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Planning and Economic Studies Section of the IAEA's Department of Nuclear Energy is focusing on topical studies related to energy and nuclear power in the context of sustainable development, and of techno-economic factors potentially affecting the future development of nuclear technologies. It offers over-arching analyses of energy, environmental and economic issues in the context of national sustainable development and energy security goals, and in competitive markets. These studies are done in collaboration with or used by MS and other international organisations for informed decision-making about the future role of nuclear technologies. The IAEA further offers energy assessments: comparing different energy technologies and choices, exploring and quantifying their costs, consequences and benefits, with a special focus, where appropriate, on nuclear power. Economic assessments offered include comparing the costs, relative cost-effectiveness and viability of nuclear and other technology choices, policy alternatives, or different climate change mitigation or sustainable development strategies, taking into account technology learning and innovation. Environmental assessments offered include estimating environmental impacts and external costs (health effects and materials damage) of pollution arising from specific energy production and use patterns

  19. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  20. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  1. Economic decision making of renewable power producers under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Chenlu

    The recent booming development of renewable power generation and government subsidies are constantly under scrutiny and various opinions exist regarding whether subsidies should be continued or not. Motivated by the controversies and debates, this dissertation attempted to address the investment decision making problem under uncertainties in the renewable power industry from the perspective of an individual power producer. Given that independent power producers still dominate the renewable power production and that majority of their output are sold through long-term power purchase agreements, this study focused on two types of uncertainties that could represent most of their kinds: the operations & maintenance (O&M) cost and governmental subsidy's renewal/expiration. Three types of investment activities that covers the major part of any renewable power plant's economic life are thoroughly investigated in a chronological order: an initial entry, exit when the plant reaches its economic life, and repowering. A real-options approach was adopted and improved to model the value of a power plant considering its future activities, while both cost and policy changes modeled as some stochastic processes. Significant policy implications and managerial insights were obtained as a result of extensive analytical modeling and statistical study of empirical evidence.

  2. Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeler, E J; Otte, M J

    2014-09-30

    In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at improving the underpinning evidence base. PMID:25268879

  3. Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiang-Jiang; Jing, You-Yin; Zhang, Chun-Fa; Zhao, Jun-Hong [School of Energy and Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei Province 071003 (China)

    2009-12-15

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have become increasingly popular in decision-making for sustainable energy because of the multi-dimensionality of the sustainability goal and the complexity of socio-economic and biophysical systems. This article reviewed the corresponding methods in different stages of multi-criteria decision-making for sustainable energy, i.e., criteria selection, criteria weighting, evaluation, and final aggregation. The criteria of energy supply systems are summarized from technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. The weighting methods of criteria are classified into three categories: subjective weighting, objective weighting and combination weighting methods. Several methods based on weighted sum, priority setting, outranking, fuzzy set methodology and their combinations are employed for energy decision-making. It is observed that the investment cost locates the first place in all evaluation criteria and CO{sub 2} emission follows closely because of more focuses on environment protection, equal criteria weights are still the most popular weighting method, analytical hierarchy process is the most popular comprehensive MCDA method, and the aggregation methods are helpful to get the rational result in sustainable energy decision-making. (author)

  4. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  5. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the other parameters are less important. A two-stage process was used to evaluate the optimal field activities. For all of the field activities combined there were five activities that were found to be "optimal" in terms of uncertainty reduction per unit cost: two-well, natural-gradient, energy budget, and single-well tracer tests, and the vadose zone modeling. A subset of the field activities was chosen such that there would be no duplication in parameter characterization. Of this subset, the vadose zone model, barometric test, energy budget, and the two-well tracer test were found to be optimal for the peak breakthrough time metric, while the single-well tracer test and the hydraulic head measurements are also considered optimal for the peak concentration metric. The environmental tracer activity was not found to be optimal, yet this activity may provide additional information on the transport system. Care must be taken in using this analysis to design a field characterization plan, as many assumptions were required in the analysis. First, many subjective assumptions were required to assess the reliability of the field activities in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty in the mean parameters. Actual field characterization may not result in the same reduction in model output uncertainty as estimated by this analysis. Second, this analysis focused on the reduction in model uncertainty due to the reduction in the uncertainty in the mean parameters. If the uncertainty in the mean parameters is reduced to zero, there still exists uncertainty in the natural heterogeneity that can never be reduced to zero. Therefore, this analysis should be used in combination with expert judgement when designing a field characterization strategy.

  6. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  7. DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS IN THE STUDY OF ROMANIAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    ELISABETA JABA; D?NU? VASILE JEMNA; DANIELA VIORIC?; CHRISTIANA BRIGITTE BALAN

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we propose using the discriminant analysis for the identification of a typology for the Romanian counties by the economic development level. In this purpose, we used a set of variables that characterize the economic and social development. The treatment of the data is done with the SPSS software. The results obtained in this paper can be used as arguments in making decisions regarding the harmonization of the Romanian regions and the allocation of the investments in appropriate ...

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  9. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lu?cia Lourenc?o

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. ...

  10. Innovation decision of Tunisian service firms: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sdiri, Hanen; Ayadi, Mohamed

    2011-01-01

    Innovation is widely recognised as a key driver of economic growth and competitiveness. But, some works focus especially on analyzing the determinants and the effects of innovation while distinguishing between its various types (product innovation, process innovation, radical innovation and incremental innovation). The analysis of the determinants is certainly important, but few research efforts testing the way in which firms make the decision to innovate. Based on a sample of 108 Tunisian se...

  11. Economic Analysis of Infrastructure Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Konstantinou, Ioannis; Floros, Evangelos

    2012-01-01

    Cloud computing claims to offer multiple advantages compared to "traditional" computing infrastructures. These include: energy efficiency, reduction of the overall administration costs, and better utilization of hardware resources by co-hosting multiple service environments. This document reports on the experience gained during the provision of an IaaS cloud service in the context of the StratusLab project and provides quantitative economic analysis of the total cost of ownership of such infr...

  12. Economic analysis of fuel recycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time

  13. Statistical distributions dor decision analysis : a supplement

    OpenAIRE

    Gates, J. M.

    1985-01-01

    This working paper presents simple statistical distributions useful for decision analysis. For a concise summary of some twenty-eight commonly used distributions and their associated functions, see Hastings and Peacock (1974). This reference does not include the distributions described below; hence the raison d'etre of this working paper. For a brief discussion of decision analysis, see Budnick, et al (1977). The distributions presented are (1) the triangular distribution, (a) an extension of...

  14. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Chung

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning. This framework consists of four parts which are to spatially identify the grades on hydrological vulnerability (potential streamflow depletion and potential water quality deterioration, to evaluate the monetary values of improvements on hydrological vulnerability grades using the choice experiment method, to derive an alternative evaluation index (AEI to quantify the effectiveness of all alternatives, and to combine the derived willingness-to-pays (WTPs with the AEI and do the cost-benefit analysis of feasible alternatives. This framework includes the stakeholder participation in order to quantify the preferences with regard to management objectives (water quantity and quality and WTPs of alternatives. Finally, the economic values of each alternative can be estimated by this study which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability grades with the AEI. The proposed procedure is applied in the Anyangcheon watershed which has been highly urbanized for past thirty years. As a result, WTPs are $0.24~$10.08/month-household for water quantity and $0.80~$8.60/month-household for water quality and residents of the five regions among six have higher WTPs for water quality improvement. Finally, since three of ten alternatives have BC>0, they can be proposed to the decision makers. This systematic screening procedure will provide decision makers with the flexibility to obtain stakeholders' consensus for water resources planning.

  15. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  16. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    OpenAIRE

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of part...

  17. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ?50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  18. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

    2009-01-01

    What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions accordin...

  19. Analysis of Decision-making Support Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena M. Derykot

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with the term «decision-making support system» from the perspective of different researchers. A number of advantages and disadvantages of each system was detected and author's vision of the issue was offered. In addition, the analysis and systematization of the decision-making support systems (DSS classification was made. Considerable attention was attached to the hierarchy of decision-making support systems, its elements and functional relations between them. The results enable the author to build the model of DSS hierarchy.

  20. Structured Reachability Analysis for Markov Decision Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Boutilier, Craig; Brafman, Ronen I.; Geib, Christopher W.

    2013-01-01

    Recent research in decision theoretic planning has focussed on making the solution of Markov decision processes (MDPs) more feasible. We develop a family of algorithms for structured reachability analysis of MDPs that are suitable when an initial state (or set of states) is known. Using compact, structured representations of MDPs (e.g., Bayesian networks), our methods, which vary in the tradeoff between complexity and accuracy, produce structured descriptions of (estimated) ...

  1. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

    2008-10-01

    This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs) for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE) method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI). The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD), and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD) and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  2. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R

    2008-12-15

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis.

  3. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

  4. Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Doan, A.; Haddawy, P.; Kahn, C. E.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines t...

  5. Social Preferences under Risk - Peer Types and Relationships in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Teubner, Timm

    2013-01-01

    This work considers economic decision making, particularly scenarios in which the decision maker faces the presence of other (private) persons. It draws inferences for the design, operation, and use of e-commerce platforms from an economic and information systems perspective and is oriented along two vital concepts therein: social preferences and risk. The role of the type as well as the relation towards the reference person is explored from an empirical and game theoretical perspective.

  6. Using decision analysis in physical protection planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The physical protection planner is faced with a myriad of decisions to make in developing a security system that will meet desired goals. Goal oriented considerations such as threat definition, acts to be precluded, and corporate or public policy weigh heavily upon design decisions. Dealing with trade-offs between seemingly unrelated security components is a basic design challenge. Often there is no way to quantitatively deal with such factors in arriving at an optimum security design. Decision analysis techniques such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process offer the potential for structuring expert judgment in examining complex design problems such as these. The easily understood process allows the security planner to rank various approaches to a given security problem, while ensuring adequate attention to meeting overall protection goals. An example application is described, wherein various physical security system configurations are evaluated for an application where stated policy (in the form of defined threat statement) and site peculiarities are key decision factors

  7. Economic analysis of projects of small hydro power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    By definition, economic analysis compares all benefits and costs associated with a project during its useful life. Costs include initial and recurring annual expenditures, whereas the benefits include revenues from the sale of electricity. Economic analysis of small hydro projects usually provides the basis for the final decision on whether or not to proceed with such investment. In general, the method used in the article includes the pay-back, the benefit/cost ratio, the net present value, the internal rate of return. (author). 7 tabs., 2 refs

  8. Health system re-engineering: a CPRS economic decision model.

    OpenAIRE

    Diehl, M.

    1995-01-01

    The fundamental problem with the health care delivery system remains too little health delivered for too great a cost. Information essential to sound clinical and administrative decision making is too frequently missing at the time and place of decision. Automated systems offer opportunities both to improve health and to reduce cost through effective and efficient information management. Information systems are the enabling technology for those business practice changes which improve the bene...

  9. Implicit race attitudes predict trustworthiness judgments and economic trust decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Stanley, Damian A.; Sokol-hessner, Peter; Banaji, Mahzarin R.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2011-01-01

    Trust lies at the heart of every social interaction. Each day we face decisions in which we must accurately assess another individual's trustworthiness or risk suffering very real consequences. In a global marketplace of increasing heterogeneity with respect to nationality, race, and multiple other social categories, it is of great value to understand how implicitly held attitudes about group membership may support or undermine social trust and thereby implicitly shape the decisions we make. ...

  10. Multicriteria decision analysis: a comprehensive decision approach for management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, I; Satterstrom, F K; Kiker, G; Seager, T P; Bridges, T; Gardner, K H; Rogers, S H; Belluck, D A; Meyer, A

    2006-02-01

    Contaminated sediments and other sites present a difficult challenge for environmental decisionmakers. They are typically slow to recover or attenuate naturally, may involve multiple regulatory agencies and stakeholder groups, and engender multiple toxicological and ecotoxicological risks. While environmental decision-making strategies over the last several decades have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex approaches, there remains considerable dissatisfaction among business, industry, and the public with existing management strategies. Consequently, contaminated sediments and materials are the subject of intense technology development, such as beneficial reuse or in situ treatment. However, current decision analysis approaches, such as comparative risk assessment, benefit-cost analysis, and life cycle assessment, do not offer a comprehensive approach for incorporating the varied types of information and multiple stakeholder and public views that must typically be brought to bear when new technologies are under consideration. Alternatively, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a scientifically sound decision framework for management of contaminated materials or sites where stakeholder participation is of crucial concern and criteria such as economics, environmental impacts, safety, and risk cannot be easily condensed into simple monetary expressions. This article brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to the assessment of contaminated sediment management technologies. Additionally, it tests an MCDA approach for coupling expert judgment and stakeholder values in a hypothetical contaminated sediments management case study wherein MCDA is used as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies. PMID:16492181

  11. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information is present. The study shows that decisions were suboptimal in relation to what the consumers claimed they wanted to purchase. Only in one product category did consumers in this study actually look at products that were slightly better than average, and as a result, they mainly selected products that were just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  12. The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutton Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.

  13. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Byung Do [School of Dentistry Wonkwang University, Iksan (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-03-15

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program.

  14. Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baicoianu, A.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

  15. The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izotov Viktor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

  16. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2015-01-01

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process which is adaptable to all types of infrastructure related problems, and which can be used for decision support on both the administrative as well as the political level. In the administrative decision process the socio-economic analysis provides a foundation for a systematic examination of which project types or initiatives that are socio-economically most suitable for handling a specific infrastructure problem. Hence, the socio-economic appraisal can help undertaking a sound selection of the possible solutions that should be examined in further details. The socio-economic analysis is as well an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does not have unlimited economic resources. Thus it is necessary to prioritise between the many projects and initiatives which are being discussed in the public sector. In order to conduct such a comprehensive prioritisation (across different sectors or within the same sector) it is a precondition that a systematic evaluation of the projects/proposals/initiatives’ advantages and disadvantages is carried out. For many years cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been used as the main tool for the purpose of economic comparison not only in Denmark but also in many other countries around the world. Investment projects that have been prepared thoroughly and evaluated to have a high socio-economic return seem to be able to obtain political acceptance more easily than projects that have not been evaluated through this type of assessment. On the other hand socio-economic assessments can also be used to turn down projects that do not show a satisfactory return. In the political prioritisation process other considerations of a political, environmental or economic character may influence the decision making. Some of these are not traditionally a part of the socioeconomic assessment, but are instead used as a supplement in the final decision phase. The socioeconomic assessment strives towards valuing all advantages and disadvantages of a project. On the background of this the project’s value for the society is calculated. This value can afterwards be compared to the values for other projects. The socio-economic appraisal is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning related tasks.

  17. Analysis weighs issues in divestiture decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spallina, J M

    1990-07-01

    Financial managers faced with the task of recommending whether diversified services should be dissolved or continued need a logical means of analysis. Their evaluations should consider not only the venture's financial results but concerns specific to the hospital and its market, as well as related social and legal issues. Failure analysis, a function of business portfolio management, helps put these variables in perspective and provides a framework for decision making. PMID:10145278

  18. Toward the integration of personality theory and decision theory in the explanation of economic and health behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Rustichini, Aldo; Deyoung, Colin G.; Anderson, Jon; Burks, Stephen V.

    2012-01-01

    Trait-based personality psychology and economics have taken different approaches to understanding individual differences, with the former emphasizing variables derived from the factor analysis of trait assessments, and the latter emphasizing variables derived from formal decision theory. In a data set on trainee truckers in a large US company, we provide a systematic initial assessment of the empirical pattern of relationships between the elements from these two approaches by comparing the pr...

  19. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  20. The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca Andreea POPA

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today that investment hold a great significance because of the dynamics of the economic development and economic growth, and also because of the great inequalities, given by the information asymmetry. In this paper we first proposed to explore the determinants of investment that lead to making the investment decision and in the second part we analyze the competitive economic environment with regard to Romania and its implications for economic growth and investment decision.

  1. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  2. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Nai-gen

    2006-01-01


    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic) in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from ...

  3. Economic analysis of production bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

  4. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD/World Bank), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD (OECD/NEA), the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The main elements and achievements of the DECADES project are described in the different chapters of this book. Additional details are provided in the chapter references and in the bibliography. The Joint Steering Committee for the DECADES project hopes that this book will contribute to the process of strengthening and improving capabilities for the design and implementation of sustainable strategies in the power sector, in particular in developing countries and countries in transition to market economies. The reference book has been prepared with the assistance of many contributors, coming from national and international organizations active in the field of electricity system analysis. The initial drafting of the different chapters and annexes was carried out by highly qualified experts (see the list of contributors to preparation, drafting and review) who served as leading or contributing authors, drawing from their experience and know-how on the subject matter. The draft chapters prepared by the lead authors and contributors were harmonised and technically edited jointly by staff members of: the IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section, the Nuclear Development Division of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, and the Industry and Energy Department of the World Bank (IBRD)

  5. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation for dental services in the future; resource scarcity is highly likely to remain an issue. Wider understanding of the complexities of priority setting and resource allocation at local levels are important considerations in the development of dental commissioning processes, national oral health policy and the future new dental contract which is expected to be implemented in April 2014.

  6. Sunk costs of consumer search: economic rationality of satisficing decision

    OpenAIRE

    Malakhov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The paper argues that sunk costs’ sensitivity can lead to the optimal consumption-leisure choice under price dispersion. The increase in quantity to be purchased with the extension of the time horizon of the consumption-leisure choice equalizes marginal costs of search with its marginal benefits. The implicit optimal choice results in the explicit satisficing decision. The transformation of cognitive mechanism of discouragement into satisficing happens only in the “common model” of cons...

  7. Decision making and economic performance of flower producers

    OpenAIRE

    Trip, G.

    2000-01-01

    Within Dutch agriculture, greenhouse horticulture stands out as a growing and innovative sector. In such circumstances of growth and innovation, one would expect a fast development of management support systems. However, apart from climate control, the role of computerized support systems for management purposes (planning/evaluation) is still very limited. The purpose of this study is get insight into the decision-making processes of greenhouse growers. A group of 26 specialized, comparable c...

  8. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Soliman, T. A. A.; Mourits, M. C. M.; Oude Lansink, A. G. J. M.; Werf, W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available techniques for quantitative economic impact assessment: partial budgeting, partial equilibrium analysis, input output analysis, and computable general equilibrium analysis. These techniques differ in ...

  9. Economic analysis based on multinational studies: methods for adapting findings to national contexts

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhold, Thomas; Bru?ggenju?rgen, Bernd; Schlander, Michael; Rosenfeld, Stephanie; Hessel, Franz; Willich, Stefan N.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Health economic parameters are increasingly considered as variables in health care decisions, but decision makers are interested in country-specific evaluations. However, a large number of studies are performed in foreign countries or in a multinational setting, which limits the transferability to a single nation’s context. Objective The present analysis summarises several of the most...

  10. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  11. Development of Economic Consequence Methodology for Process Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. PMID:25492717

  12. New approaches in economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leontief, W; Duchin, F; Szyld, D B

    1985-04-26

    The level of detail of economic models has until recently been limited by the availability of computational capability. At present, the constraint is the systematic compilation of detailed and comprehensive economic and technical data and the ability to manipulate them. The effective use of enhanced data processing capabilities will have to proceed hand in hand with a concerted effort to develop the economic database and with the shift from analytic approaches based on aggregative data to those that can take advantage of detailed information. PMID:17746871

  13. Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, Christopher H.; Thompson, Simon G.; Sharples, Linda D.

    2009-01-01

    Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aor...

  14. 77 FR 21081 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-09

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  15. 75 FR 49890 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-16

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  16. 76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  17. 77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-05

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  18. 76 FR 59111 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-23

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  19. 75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ...DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis...and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government. This will be...

  20. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ChristopherSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  1. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the rislts: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  2. Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Fre?de?ric

    2010-01-01

    To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's ...

  3. Review of The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research

    OpenAIRE

    Breese, Jack

    1988-01-01

    This review examines two important works in decision analysis: Howard and Matheson's The Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, and Winterfeldt and Edwards's "Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.

  4. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  5. Relevant market, economic analysis and information.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zemplinerová, Alena

    Praha : Czech Association for Competition Law, 2008, s. 28-39. ISBN 978-80-254-3276-1 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : relevant market definition * competition law * economic analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  6. NOBEL LAUREATES IN ECONOMICS: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ??????????? ???????? ?? ?????????: ?????????????? ??????

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barannikov A. A.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article, we present the procedure for nomination and approval of the award winners from the Swedish state-owned bank in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Nobel Prize in economics. As well as the analysis of works by winners of subjects, the patterns for the Nobel Prize, and its components are shown

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formanance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to better evaluate the proposed methodology

  8. 17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...false Office of Economic Analysis. 200...Program Management General Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The...effort by applying economic analysis and statistical tools to issues raised in...

  9. Engineering economic analysis of research reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper briefly describes few groups of parameters which characterize utilization factor, cost and output of neutron and effective irradiation space in a research reactor. An example was also made to introduce some calculation methods for engineering economic analysis. (author)

  10. SANDS - Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Hawkins, L.; He, M.; Ebersole, S.

    2010-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The SANDS project is also investigating the effects of sediment immersed oil from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in April 2010 which has the potential to resurface as a result of tropical storm activity. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support has generated a number of decision support products derived from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments that potentially support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, these decision support products address the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on sediment disturbance, suspension, transport, and deposition in the north central Gulf of Mexico. The products will be managed and accessed through the SANDS Portal, an on-line data repository with a user interface customized to provide data and information for specific storm based events. By making multi-spectral satellite products available for multiple common storm events, SANDS will provide end users the opportunity to better analyze, detect, and identify compositions and patterns of suspended sediment and sediment deposits.

  11. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  12. A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

    2013-09-01

    A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective. PMID:23749462

  13. Decision and decision makers

    OpenAIRE

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent us...

  14. Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to il...

  15. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

    OpenAIRE

    Jit Mark; Levin Carol; Brisson Marc; Levin Ann; Resch Stephen; Berkhof Johannes; Kim Jane; Hutubessy Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs...

  16. Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xuebin, Li [Research and Development Center, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430064 (China)

    2009-05-15

    Environmental awareness and the recent environmental policies have forced many electric utilities to restructure their practices to account for their emission impacts. One way to accomplish this is by reformulating the traditional economic dispatch problem such that emission effects are included in the mathematical model. The economic/environmental dispatch problem is a multi-objective non-linear optimization problem with constraints. This study presents a hybrid approach to solve the combined economic-emission dispatch problem (CEED). In the first stage, a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) is employed to approximate the set of Pareto solution through an evolutionary optimization process. In the subsequent stage, a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach is adopted to rank these solutions from best to worst and to determinate the best solution in a deterministic environment with a single decision maker. This hybrid approach is tested on a six-unit system to illustrate the analysis process in present analysis. Pareto frontiers are obtained and the ranking of Pareto solutions is based on entropy weight and TOPSIS method. Results obtained show that the hybrid approach has a great potential in handling multi-objective optimization problem. (author)

  17. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  18. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  20. Use of risk analysis in safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evaluation of risks from a major energy system such as coal, nuclear and oil is receiving increasing attention. However, the best use of risk results in safety decisions must take into consideration many factors and still unresolved limitations. For example the different kinds of risks, the time periods when risk is manifested, occupational risks versus public risks, comparability of risk results, assessment of uncertainties and completeness. Even when the uncertainties are adequately assessed, methods for including them in quantitative comparisons are not well formulated. Likewise the uncertainty problem may prevent valid conclusions regarding the relative ranking of significant contributors to risk. In addition insights based on risk analysis performed on a global or national basis can significantly deviate the conclusions of a site specific analysis. Based on the results of a comparative study of risks of energy from coal, oil, gas, LWR, and solar power (STEC-system) this paper will explore the sensitivity of the results to the various parameters describing the risks and the limitations of the conclusions which can be drawn. The paper also suggests that it is more useful for societal decisions to incorporate risk analyses into cost-effectiveness analysis. Cost-effectiveness analysis allows identification of those energy systems and areas within an energy system where a given expenditure will produce the greatest reduction in risk. This is facilitated by the fact thn risk. This is facilitated by the fact that risks cannot be reduced to zero and each incremental reduction in risk costs increasingly more. This paper will also suggest that there is a limit to continually reducing the risk because excessive expenditures on risk reduction will actually increase the risk to society. The paper will identify and investigate parameters which the results of cost-effectiveness studies are sensitive to

  1. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  2. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  3. On Economic Analysis of International Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nai-gen ZHANG

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available
    The economic analysis of international law is the new development of international law theories in last decade. Based on existing references, this thesis intents to promote application of economic analysis of international law in China with pluralistic ways of research (for examples, political, legal and economic in order to understand the contemporary issues of international law and to have new ideas. The part I is a brief comparison between domestic and international laws from economic perspective, and then a description of applicable economic analysis for international law with an emphasis of its theoretical and practical significances. The part II is focused on Coase’s Law & Economics as the basis of economic analysis of international law. The part III to V provide with a few examples of economic analysis of international laws, i.e. law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law. The conclusion is given finally.
    Key words: theory of international law, economic analysis, law of international economic organization, international environmental law and international humanitarian law
    Résumé: L’analyse économique de la loi internationale est le nouveau développement des théories de la loi internationale dans la dernière décennie. Basé sur des références existantes, cette thèse tente de promouvoir l’application de l’analyse économique de la loi internaionale en Chine avec des méthodes de recherche pluralistes(par exemple, politique, légale et économique afin de comprendre les problèmatiques contemporains de la loi internationale et de s’en faire de nouvelles idées. La partie I procède à une comparaison brève entre les lois domestiques et internationales sous l’angle économique et à une description des analyses économiques applicables aux lois internationales en mettant l’accent sur leurs significations théoriques et pratiques. La partie II se concentre sur la Loi de Coase&Economie qui sert de base d’analyse. De la partie III à la partie V, on trouve des exemples de l’analyse économique des lois internationals, par exemple, la loi internationale de l’organisation économique , la loi international de l’environnement et la loi internationale humaniste. Enfin, la conclusion est dégagée.
    Mots-Clés: théorie de la loi internationale, analyse économique, loi internationale de l’organisation économique, loi internationale de l’environnement et loi internationale humaniste

  4. Voluntary Participation in Community Economic Development in Canada: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Lamb

    2011-01-01

    This article is an empirical analysis of an individual's decision to participate in community economic development (CED) initiatives in Canada. The objective of the analysis is to better understand how individuals make decisions to volunteer time toward CED initiatives and to determine whether the determinants of participation in CED are unique when compared to those of participation in volunteer activities in general. The dataset employed is Statistics Canada's 2004 Canada Survey of Giving, ...

  5. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

  6. Bayesian decision analysis and reliability certification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reliability certification is set as a problem of Bayesian Decision Analysis. Uncertainties about the system reliability are quantified by assuming the parameters of the models describing the stochastic behavior of components as random variables. A utility function quantifies the relative value of each possible level of system reliability after having been accepted or the opportunity loss of the same level if the system has been rejected. A decision about accepting or rejecting the system can be made either on the basis of the existing prior assessment of uncertainties or after obtaining further information through testing of the components or the system at a cost. The concepts of value of perfect information, expected value of sample information and the expected net gain of sampling are specialized to the reliability of a multicomponent system to determine the optimum component testing scheme prior to deciding on the system's certification. A component importance ranking is proposed on the basis of the expected value of perfect information about the reliability of each component. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a single component system failing according to a Poisson random process and with natural conjugate prior probability density functions (pdf) for the failure rate and for a multicomponent system under general assumptions

  7. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  8. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on sediment disturbance, suspension, transport, and deposition in the north central Gulf of Mexico. At least five end user organizations plus the UAHuntsville’s Information Technology and Systems Center and the Geological Survey of Alabama project team, will use the products to improve measurements of water quality (Dauphin Island Sea Lab); assess sedimentation during storm events and its impact on critical coastal habitats (Alabama Department of Conservation); assess sedimentation versus sea level rise in natural marshes (Department of the Interior); and improve understanding of the impact of sediment and sediment deposits on water quality, living resources, and habitats of the estuarine environment (Mobile Bay National Estuary Program); and assess storm surge effects on coastal ecosystems (NOAA Center for Coastal Ocean Research). The products will be managed and accessed through the SANDS Portal, an on-line data repository with a user interface customized to provide data and information for specific storm events. By making multi-spectral satellite products available for multiple common storm events, SANDS will provide end users the opportunity to better analyze, detect, and identify compositions and patterns of suspended sediment and sediment deposits.

  9. Decision Tree Induction Systems: A Bayesian Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Buntine, Wray L.

    2013-01-01

    Decision tree induction systems are being used for knowledge acquisition in noisy domains. This paper develops a subjective Bayesian interpretation of the task tackled by these systems and the heuristic methods they use. It is argued that decision tree systems implicitly incorporate a prior belief that the simpler (in terms of decision tree complexity) of two hypotheses be preferred, all else being equal, and that they perform a greedy search of the space of decision rules t...

  10. Risk analysis and regulatory safety decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The rationale for application of the proposed Swiss probabilistic safety criteria to existing and future generations of nuclear power plants is provided. These proposed criteria form the basis of a framework for regulatory and operational safety decision making, using uncertain, plant specific probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) results. For existing plants, the approach proposes to use probabilistic safety criteria to determine if major plant specific backfits are justifiable on the basis of risk benefit analyses. Less significant procedural modifications (i.e. additional emergency operating procedures) are proposed to be evaluated using relative safety gains determined on the basis of a selected number of uncertain PSA calculated risk measures. The new plants are expected to achieve a much higher standard of safety, and therefore must be able to accommodate severe accidents within their design basis envelope, thus reducing and/or eliminating the perceived severe accident uncertainties via innovative accident prevention and mitigation design features. (author). 6 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  11. Social information and personal interests modulate neural activity during economic decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Moser

    2014-01-01

    In the present study we employed electrophysiological recordings to investigate the levels of processing at which positive and negative descriptions of other people bias social decision-making in a game in which participants accepted or rejected economic offers. Besides social information, we manipulated the fairness of the assets distribution, whether offers were advantageous or not for the participant and the uncertainty of the game context. Results show that a negative description of the i...

  12. How ordinary consumers make complex economic decisions: financial literacy and retirement readiness

    OpenAIRE

    Lusardi, Annamaria; Mitchell, Olivia S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores who is financially literate, whether people accurately perceive their own economic decision-making skills, and where these skills come from. Self-assessed and objective measures of financial literacy can be linked to consumers’ efforts to plan for retirement in the American Life Panel, and causal relationships with retirement planning examined by exploiting information about respondent financial knowledge acquired in school. Results show that those with more advanced fin...

  13. Cloud service selection using multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whaiduzzaman, Md; Gani, Abdullah; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  14. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  15. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  16. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  17. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  18. Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Baddeley, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour ...

  19. Economic analysis of coffee production in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ayoola

    2012-01-01

    This study was done to examine the economics of coffee production in Nigeria and aimed to determine parameters for revitalizing coffee production. Data from one hundred and fifty respondents were selected by stratified and purposive techniques from the Nigerian states of Kogi and Ogun. Data were analyzed using a descriptive statistic regression analysis and a gross margin analysis. The gross margin profit from coffee farming was below the minimum requirement for a basic livelihood in Nigeria....

  20. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  1. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  2. Selective increase of intention-based economic decisions by noninvasive brain stimulation to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nihonsugi, Tsuyoshi; Ihara, Aya; Haruno, Masahiko

    2015-02-25

    The intention behind another's action and the impact of the outcome are major determinants of human economic behavior. It is poorly understood, however, whether the two systems share a core neural computation. Here, we investigated whether the two systems are causally dissociable in the brain by integrating computational modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and transcranial direct current stimulation experiments in a newly developed trust game task. We show not only that right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) activity is correlated with intention-based economic decisions and that ventral striatum and amygdala activity are correlated with outcome-based decisions, but also that stimulation to the DLPFC selectively enhances intention-based decisions. These findings suggest that the right DLPFC is involved in the implementation of intention-based decisions in the processing of cooperative decisions. This causal dissociation of cortical and subcortical backgrounds may indicate evolutionary and developmental differences in the two decision systems. PMID:25716841

  3. Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludy A Parada-Vargas

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales.Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construction of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

  4. Modelos de evaluación económica: su aplicación en las decisiones sanitarias / Economic Evaluation Models and their Application in Health Decision Making

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Ludy A, Parada-Vargas; Alejandra, Taborda-Restrepo.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available SciELO Colombia | Language: Spanish Abstract in spanish Objetivo: Introducir los conceptos clave sobre modelos de evaluación económica en salud como herramientas de toma de decisiones, sector donde la asignación eficiente de recursos se da en ambientes de escasez e incertidumbre. Método: Se desarrolló un análisis simplificado de los principales conceptos [...] empleados en la construcción de un modelo de evaluación económica en salud a partir de las principales referencias sobre toma de decisiones en salud de acuerdo con los portales de evaluación económica como CEA Tufts University, CRD de la Universidad de York, Medline y Pubmed. Desarrollo: Se definieron modelos en el contexto de evaluación económica en salud, necesarios en un sistema cambiante y de incertidumbre. Se analizaron los pasos para el desarrollo de un buen modelo y la estructuración de una evaluación crítica de éstos. Se finalizó con la discusión y conclusiones de la actualización de la información. Como anexo se incluye una lista de revisión para verificar la confiabilidad de los modelos que se van a realizar. Conclusión: Los modelos en evaluación económica aparecen como herramienta de toma de decisiones en salud; por esta razón, y como simplificadores de la realidad, deben ser transparentes y reproducibles de manera que todos los elementos considerados estén respaldados sistemáticamente con descripciones claras y puntuales. Abstract in english Objective: To introduce the key concepts of economic evaluation models as tools in health decision-making, a sector where the efficient allocation of resources is done in an environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Method: We developed a simplified analysis of the main concepts used in the construct [...] ion of a model of economic assessment in health from the main references on decision-making in health according to economic assessment portals such as CEA Tufts University, CRD at University of York, Medline, and Pubmed. Development: Models were defined in the context of economic assessment in health as needed in a system of ever-changing requirements and uncertainty. It discusses the steps for developing a good model and the structure for a critical evaluation of it, ending with a discussion and the conclusions of the updated information. Attached is a checklist for verifying the reliability of the models to be executed. Conclusion: Economic evaluation models develop as a tool for decision making in health; for this reason and as simplifications of reality, they must be transparent and reproducible so that all elements are considered systematically backed with clear and precise descriptions.

  5. Clinical decision analysis: Incorporating the evidence with patient preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilyas S Aleem

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Ilyas S Aleem1, Hamza Jalal2, Idris S Aleem3, Adeel A Sheikh1, Mohit Bhandari11Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; 2The University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada; 3Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Decision analysis has become an increasingly popular decision-making tool with a multitude of clinical applications. Incorporating patient and expert preferences with available literature, it allows users to apply evidence-based medicine to make informed decisions when confronted with difficult clinical scenarios. A decision tree depicts potential alternatives and outcomes involved with a given decision. Probabilities and utilities are used to quantify the various options and help determine the best course of action. Sensitivity analysis allows users to explore the uncertainty of data on expected clinical outcomes. The decision maker can thereafter establish a preferred method of treatment and explore variables which influence the final clinical outcome. The present paper reviews the technique of decision analysis with particular focus on its application to clinical decision making.Keywords: decision analysis, patient preference, game theory, evidence-based medicine

  6. The influence of personality on students' career decisiveness: A comparison between Chinese and German economics and management students

    OpenAIRE

    Gunkel, Marjaana; Schlaegel, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Within the last decade, the relation between personality and career decisiveness has received increased attention. This study examines the country-specific influence of the Big Five personality traits on career decisiveness and its determinants, namely career related adaptability, career-related optimism, and career-related knowledge, among 406 Chinese and German economics and management students. The results show that personality traits affect career decisiveness and its determinants and tha...

  7. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  8. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    CERN Document Server

    Harp, Dylan R

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

  9. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

  10. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size under stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PK Mubiru

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL size in manufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic review production-inventory system under stochastic demand. Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces an optimal lot sizing policy, as well as the corresponding total production and inventory costs.

  11. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.C. Webb

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to control diseases or select management practices in commercial herds. It is suggested that the inputs and outputs of small-scale farming systems should be carefully analysed and that veterinary economics should also be used to evaluate the probable impact of extension messages formulated by veterinarians and animal health technicians.

  12. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fignt organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  13. [Ethics and monetary values. Influence of economical aspects on decision-making in intensive care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boldt, J; Schöllhorn, T

    2008-11-01

    Healthcare expenditure continues to grow and the demand for cost-cutting measures has increased. Critical care medicine is characterized by extremely high expenditure and thus appears to be a suitable candidate for rationing. Based on the hospital address book of Germany, a questionnaire consisting of 25 multiple choice questions was sent out to 1,000 intensive care units (ICU). The questionnaire was focused on obtaining information on whether and how rationing takes place in Germany. A total of 540 questionnaires were returned and analyzed. Only approximately 25% of intensive care units stated that a special budget is available. Approximately 59% answered that therapeutic decisions were never or rarely influenced by economic reasons, but in 9% economics often influenced decisions. Advanced age was not considered to be a reason to limit the use of extremely expensive medication or the use of renal replacement therapy (RRT) in 88% of the answers. Incurable cancer was also no reason to refuse RRT (91%). For 35% of the answers there were no contraindications for admission to intensive care, whereas for 35% an incurable disease was a contraindication, for 10% a non-resuscitation order and for 84% the patients' wishes played a decisive role. Of the intensive care units 67% were convinced that rationing is a matter of fact in ICUs in Germany and 53% were of the opinion that rationing should not occur. Of the answers 43% considered that limiting ICU therapy would be the best when rationing is necessary. Rationing therapy in critical care appears to occur daily in German ICUs. Due to the high costs, intensive care therapy will represent a very important battleground in the inevitable healthcare spending limitations of the future. Rationing cannot be determined exclusively by ICU doctors, thus clear and probably unpopular decisions on this issue are expected to be announced by the politicians. PMID:18825352

  14. Decision-tree analysis of control strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Romann M; Fajen, Brett R

    2014-10-15

    A major focus of research on visually guided action is the identification of control strategies that map optical information to actions. The traditional approach has been to test the behavioral predictions of a few hypothesized strategies against subject behavior in environments in which various manipulations of available information have been made. While important and compelling results have been achieved with these methods, they are potentially limited by small sets of hypotheses and the methods used to test them. In this study, we introduce a novel application of data-mining techniques in an analysis of experimental data that is able to both describe and model human behavior. This method permits the rapid testing of a wide range of possible control strategies using arbitrarily complex combinations of optical variables. Through the use of decision-tree techniques, subject data can be transformed into an easily interpretable, algorithmic form. This output can then be immediately incorporated into a working model of subject behavior. We tested the effectiveness of this method in identifying the optical information used by human subjects in a collision-avoidance task. Our results comport with published research on collision-avoidance control strategies while also providing additional insight not possible with traditional methods. Further, the modeling component of our method produces behavior that closely resembles that of the subjects upon whose data the models were based. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that data-mining techniques provide powerful new tools for analyzing human data and building models that can be applied to a wide range of perception-action tasks, even outside the visual-control setting we describe. PMID:25316047

  15. Thermodynamic and economic analysis of CHP system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combined heat and power generation (CHP) from the same fuel source enhance energy utilization efficiency, improves energy supply reliability and provides greater protection to environment. The present paper discusses various factors that should be considered for developing a cogeneration plant and describes a simple methodology for its thermodynamic and economic analysis. A comparison between the connection and cogeneration plants shows considerable amount of saving with an attractive pay-back period. (author)

  16. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  17. Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migration: An Economic and Social Analysis is a report sponsored by the Research Development Statistics department of the Home Office, the UK government department of internal affairs for England and Wales. Researched and written for the purposes of discussion only, this report attempts to examine "migration in the round." It begins with background information including migration theory and trends. Then it offers a look at the current policy framework in the UK concerning the government's objectives in the highest levels and considers the social and economic outcomes of those policies. Finally, the report concludes with suggestions for further research and development. The report is divided into seven main chapters which cover aspects of migration including the economic theory of migration, the myths and realities of post-war migration, and the social and economic impact of UK policies as they relate to both the UK and to the migrants themselves. This well-written report provides an excellent base for those interested in issues involving UK government policies and migration.

  18. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies.

  19. Probabilistic analysis of decision trees using symbolic algebra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, K E; Critchfield, G C

    1986-01-01

    Uncertainty in medical decision making techniques occurs in the specification of both decision tree probabilities and utilities. Using a computer-based algebraic approach, methods for modeling this uncertainty have been formulated. This analytic procedure allows an exact calculation of the statistical variance at the final decision node using automated symbolic manipulation. Confidence and conditional confidence levels for the preferred decision are derived from gaussian theory, and the mutual information index that identifies probabilistically important tree variables is provided. The computer-based algebraic method is illustrated for a problem previously analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. This methodology provides the decision analyst with a procedure to evaluate the outcome of specification uncertainty, in many decision problems, without resorting to Monte Carlo analysis. PMID:3702626

  20. Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the mic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly appropriate for an estimate on the costs of energy given the various technologies. Levelized fuel cycle cost (LFCC) and levelized generation cost (LGC) have offered effective indicators for economic comparison among nuclear fuel cycles and were adopted to compare the fuel cycle options considered in this study. The unpredictable change of the unit costs of several key components due to the uncertainties can lead to considerable differences in levelized costs among the fuel cycle alternatives. To take these unavoidable uncertainties into account, a wide scale was applied to each unit cost and a distribution of levelized cost was also obtained

  1. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    OpenAIRE

    Tirlea, Mariana Rodica

    2013-01-01

    The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find sol...

  2. Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ehrgott, Matthias; Greco, Salvatore

    2010-01-01

    Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the study of methods and procedures by which concerns about multiple conflicting criteria can be formally incorporated into the management planning process. A key area of research in OR/MS, MCDM is now being applied in many new areas, including GIS systems, AI, and group decision making. This volume is in effect the third in a series of Springer books by these editors (all in the ISOR series), and it brings all the latest developments in MCDM into focus. Looking at developments in the applications, methodologies and foundations of MCDM, it presents r

  3. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6) the economic framework. Our modeling framework began with the identification of factors that influence spatial and temporal changes in riparian vegetation on the two rivers. The linked modeling framework was then employed for making spatial predictions of the changes in presence of surface water, vegetation change, and avian populations in both river systems. An overview of the overall project will be provided, with lessons learned, and initial valuation survey results.

  4. Measuring Preferences for Cost-Utility Analysis: How Choice of Method May Influence Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Mcdonough, Christine M.; Tosteson, Anna N. A.

    2007-01-01

    Preferences for health are required when the economic value of health care interventions are assessed within the framework of cost-utility analysis. The objective of this paper is to review alternative methods for preference measurement and to evaluate the extent to which method may affect health care decision making. Two broad approaches to preference measurement that provide societal health state values are considered: 1) direct measurement and 2) preference-based health state classificatio...

  5. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ?2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789?919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015?12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of national economy, by having economic profit over all scenarios of construction costs. (2) Export A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation amounts to 899? 1,140 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 7,324?9,287 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Value added inducing effect amounts to 339?464 billion won for the 1st reactor export and to 766?778 billion won for the 10th reactor export. Employment inducing effect amounts to 3,616?4,339 men for the 1st reactor export and to 29,471 ?35, 364 men for the 10th reactor export. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost-benefit of exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically non-profitable for the natural gas price less than or equal to 10.23 $/MMBtu over all scenarios on exporting number of the reactors and turns out to be economically profitable for the other price level from the exporting number of 4 or 6. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost-benefit and value added inducing effect, exporting SMART reactors turns out to be economically profitable from the point of view of national economy for more than equal to 2nd reactor depending on the scenarios of the natural gas price. (3) Intangible Social Gains The intangible social gains of SMART Project by contributing to Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improving Korea's global standing in the science area amounts to 245?458 billion won

  6. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  7. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  8. Rural tourism spatial distribution based on multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxian; Yang, Qingsheng

    2008-10-01

    To study spatial distribution of rural tourism can provide scientific decision basis for developing rural economics. Traditional ways of tourism spatial distribution have some limitations in quantifying priority locations of tourism development on small units. They can only produce the overall tourism distribution locations and whether locations are suitable to tourism development simply while the tourism develop ranking with different decision objectives should be considered. This paper presents a way to find ranking of location of rural tourism development in spatial by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geography information system (GIS). In order to develop country economics with inconvenient transportation, undeveloped economy and better tourism resource, these locations should be firstly develop rural tourism. Based on this objective, the tourism develop priority utility of each town is calculated with MCDA and GIS. Towns which should be first develop rural tourism can be selected with higher tourism develop priority utility. The method is used to find ranking of location of rural tourism in Ningbo City successfully. The result shows that MCDA is an effective way for distribution rural tourism in spatial based on special decision objectives and rural tourism can promote economic development.

  9. Using multiple criteria decision analysis for supporting decisions of solid waste management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Steven; Chan, Christine W; Huang, Guo H

    2002-01-01

    Design of solid-waste management systems requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation criteria because the systems can have complex and conflicting impacts on different stakeholders. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been found to be a fruitful approach to solve this design problem. In this paper, the MCDA approach is applied to solve the landfill selection problem in Regina of Saskatchewan Canada. The systematic approach of MCDA helps decision makers select the most preferable decision and provides the basis of a decision support system. The techniques that are used in this study include: 1) Simple Weighted Addition method, 2) Weighted Product method, 3) TOPSIS, 4) cooperative game theory, and 5) ELECTRE. The results generated with these methods are compared and ranked so that the most preferable solution is identified. PMID:12090287

  10. Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas / Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Paulo Roberto de, Sant' anna; Orlando Celso, Longo; Francisco Marcelo, Barone; Carlos José Guimarães, Cova; Fernando Augusto Lagoeiro de, Oliveira.

    1589-16-01

    Full Text Available SciELO Brazil | Language: Portuguese Abstract in portuguese Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstraçõ [...] es financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão. Abstract in english This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for manag [...] ers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

  11. Tecnologia da informação como ferramenta para a análise econômica e financeira em apoio à tomada de decisão para as micro e pequenas empresas Information technology as a tool for economic and finacial analysis in support of the decision-making for micro and small business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto de Sant'anna

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta como a tecnologia de informação pode auxiliar na análise econômica e financeira em uma organização, favorecendo a apreciação dos resultados e de seu desempenho, com vistas à garantia da eficiência e da celeridade desse processo, e oferecendo, ainda, visibilidade das demonstrações financeiras para gestores e sócios. Também analisa como a contabilidade gerencial auxilia as micro e pequenas empresas no processo de planejamento e controle, focalizando a estrutura e o funcionamento dos elementos fundamentais para análise das demonstrações financeiras no apoio à decisão.This article shows how information technology can assist in the economic and financial analysis inside an organization, benefiting the results assessment and its performance, in order to ensure the efficiency and haste of this process, and also offers visibility of the financial statements for managers and partners. Further, how the management accounting helps micro and small business in the process of control and scheduling, focusing on structure and operation of fundamental elements for financial statements analysis to support decisions.

  12. THE INVOLVEMENT OF CITIZENS IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMICAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian?Lucian Kanovici

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The economical and financial crisis that broke out in the United States of America and that rapidly extended at international level, has affected, in the context of a globalized world, both solid economies from the Centre and Western Europe and the more fragile economies that are still in transition from the space of South?Eastern Europe and especially the Western Balkans. The lack of an effective involvement of the citizens from the Balkans in the decision making process at local and central level has represented, for the last 20 years, one of the important causes that allowed the level of the reforms carried out in this state to be an incipient one. As a consequence, in the present time, against some alarming economical realities and some economical indicators that show an increase of the number of unemployed people, it becomes necessary to have a drastic reduction of foreign investments or an increase of the public debt level as a percentage from the domestic gross productand an involvement of the citizens and of the specialists from various areas in the drafting and the implementation of public policies.

  13. Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Berto

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss current management options for patients with schizophrenia and highlight some unmet clinical needs in the field. After outlining the main clinical features shown by paliperidone ER, a novel antipsychotic, in its clinical development program, a decision analytic economic appraisal of its use in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy, as compared to the other available atypical antipsychotics, is presented. Under base-case assumption and after applying national costs and tariffs, the model predicts paliperidone ER to be associated with better clinical outcomes, expressed in terms of stable days, and lower costs; this means that paliperidone is dominant over the alternatives, according to the principles of economic evaluation of healthcare technologies. One-way sensitivity analyses conducted on structural and cost parameters indicated robustness of base-case estimates, which remain to be confirmed by “real world” national data.

  14. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  15. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro, Gomes; Luís Alberto Duncan, Rangel; Priscila Pereira, Fernandes.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it [...] necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  16. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  17. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis

  18. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ...Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY...Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS...a web-based decision support system that will help...organize, and share information useful for...

  19. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  20. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  1. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  2. EMERGY ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A COMPARATIVE STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our mission at USEPA is to protect human health and safeguard the natural environment. We aim to base our environmental regulations and policies on sound scientific and, where appropriate, economic analyses. Although EPA has conducted analysis of the impact of regulations on ...

  3. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  4. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. PMID:24772997

  5. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  6. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  7. An economic spreadsheet model to determine optimal breeding and replacement decisions for dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenendaal, H; Galligan, D T; Mulder, H A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe a user-friendly spreadsheet culling model that was constructed to support economical, optimal breeding and replacement decisions on dairy farms. The model was based on the marginal net revenue technique. Inputs for the model can be entered for specific farm conditions, and the output is easily accessible. In the model, the retention pay-off (RPO) value of individual dairy cows was calculated. The RPO value of a cow is equal to the total additional profits that a producer can expect from trying to keep the cow until her optimal age, taking into account the changes of involuntary removal compared with her immediate replacement. To calculate the RPO values, the future production, revenues, and costs of dairy cows at different levels of milk production with different numbers of days open (DO) were determined. Furthermore, the ranges of carcass value, calf revenues, and the range of involuntary disposal rates of cows within and across lactations were taken into account. To illustrate the model, parameters in the model were chosen to represent a typical Holstein dairy herd in Pennsylvania. The results of this model are very comparable with earlier, more complex models that are more difficult to use on the farm. In addition to using the RPO values to evaluate the decision to breed or replace a cow, the costs per additional DO were estimated. Early conception was most profitable with the costs per additional DO varying from $0 to more than $3/d. The model can be used as a decision-supporting tool for producers, extension personnel, veterinarians, and consultants. In addition, researchers, economists, and government organizations can use the model to determine the costs of culling dairy cows in a disease control program. The model and manual are available at http://cahpwww.vet.upenn.edu/software/econcow.html. PMID:15328228

  8. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jit Mark

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1 Is an economic analysis needed? 2 Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3 If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4 If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5 How complex should the analysis be? 6 How should uncertainty be captured? 7 How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  9. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries. PMID:23363734

  10. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing countries which can not simply be resolved by the introduction of IT projects, but rather require more comprehensive solutions.

  11. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ? We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ? We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ? Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ? Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ? Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  12. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    OpenAIRE

    Grigore, Maria Zenovia

    2009-01-01

    In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incom...

  13. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  14. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  15. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  16. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. PMID:21764422

  17. Assessing the Geographic Expression of Urban Sustainability: A Scenario Based Approach Incorporating Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James K. Lein

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban sustainability involves a re-examination of urban development including environmental, social and economic policies and practices that acknowledge the role of cities in global environmental change. However, sustainability remains a broadly defined concept that has been applied to mean everything from environmental protection, social cohesion, economic growth, neighborhood design, alternative energy, and green building design. To guide sustainability initiatives and assess progress toward more sustainable development patterns this construct requires a means to place this concept into a decision-centric context where change can be evaluated and the exploitation of resources, the direction of investment, the orientation of technological development, and institutional programs can be made more consistent with future as well as present needs. In this study the problem of sustainability assessment was examined and a method that couples scenario analysis with spatial multicriteria decision analysis was introduced. The integration of a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA model for sustainable development with scenario planning resulted in an interpretation of sustainability that is more appropriate for local conditions and useful when exploring sustainability’s semantic uncertainties, particularly those alternate perspectives that influence future environments.

  18. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  19. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW transmission line. In the G+CC+CCS plant, coal is gasified into syngas and CO{sub 2} (which is captured). The syngas is burned in the combined cycle plant to produce electricity. The ACWH facility is operated in such a way that the transmission line is always utilized at its full capacity by backing down the combined cycle (CC) power generation units to accommodate wind generation. Operating the ACWH facility in this manner results in a constant power delivery of 3,000 MW to the load centers, in effect firming-up the wind generation at the project site.

  20. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O’Brien

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

  1. AN ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANIE'S ECONOMIC GROWTH CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia BURJA

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable economic growth of companies constitutes a strategic management objective as it is ofgeneral interest. The companies’ accrued net worth and their capacity to generate profit result in increasedcompetitiveness. This paper presents a general model to analyze the companies’ economic growth grounded on theinvested capital profitability that is illustrated in an adequate case study. The described model highlights the majorfactors influencing economic growth at a microeconomic level as well as the direction they act, providing thepossibility to better substantiate decisions that serve this purpose.

  2. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  3. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems :Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the avai...

  4. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the avai...

  5. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

  6. Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management

    OpenAIRE

    Kuzemin, Alexander; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav

    2008-01-01

    The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are considered. The basis of the generalized analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in economic systems is offered.

  7. A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

    2010-01-01

    To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks. PMID:20821675

  8. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuad M. Kreishan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This research investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Jordan through the implementation of Okun?s law. Approach: Using annual data covering the period 1970-2008, time series techniques are used to test the relation between unemployment and economic growth and to obtain estimates for Okun?s coefficient. Namely, the study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF for unit root, cointegration test and a simple regression between unemployment rate and economic growth. Results: The empirical results reveal that Okun?s law cannot be confirmed for Jordan. Thus, it can be suggested that the lack of economic growth does not explain the unemployment problem in Jordan. Conclusion: The study recommended that economic policies related to demand management would not have an important effect in reducing unemployment rate. Accordingly implementation of economic policies oriented to structural change and reform in the labor market would be more appropriate by policy makers in Jordan.

  9. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  10. Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belbase, Shashidhar

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

  11. Clustering analysis and decision-making by ?rank of links?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verulava O.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, formalism for cluster analysis, based on the “Rank of Links”-theory, is suggested. It tackles resemble measures, cross-distance matrices, “rank of links”-metric and some other cluster characteristics. Using these notions, an algorithm of clustering has been designed. Its application to estimation and prognosis of decision-making process shows nice workability and reliability.

  12. Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

  13. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Dong-Hong

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing F = e3.760348 x Q0.571771 x V0.425999 x eu. That is, for the marketing force, Output elasticity of marketing flow and flow rate were determined as 0.571771 and 0.425999.

  14. Economics Analysis on Petroleum Enterprise’s Marketing Decision Function

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Dong-Hong; Wang Jing-Si

    2013-01-01

    In order to give the Influence factors a further research which is of petroleum enterprise marketing based on the Dynamic hypothesis, using the Least squares method of multiple linear regression and correlation test to built the econometrics model of petroleum enterprise marketing. After elimination of the influence factors of marketing flow security which has a highly linear correlation with marketing flow, get the final econometrics model of petroleum ent...

  15. An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Chinnammai, S.

    2013-01-01

    The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and ...

  16. Risk analysis in bioequivalence and biowaiver decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubbinga, Marlies; Langguth, Peter; Barends, Dirk

    2013-07-01

    This article evaluates the current biowaiver guidance documents published by the FDA, EU and WHO from a risk based perspective. The authors introduce the use of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk calculation tool to show that current regulatory documents implicitly limit the risk for bioinequivalence after granting a biowaiver by reduction of the incidence, improving the detection and limiting the severity of any unforeseen bioinequivalent product. In addition, the authors use the risk calculation to expose yet unexplored options for future extension of comparative in vitro tools for biowaivers. PMID:23280474

  17. How Does Rivals' Presence Affect Firms' Decision to Enter New Markets : Economic and Sociological Explanations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koçak, Özgecan; Özcan, Serden

    2013-01-01

    Four distinct theoretical programs have examined market entry decisions of multiunit firms, advancing different explanations for the relationship between a firm's likelihood of entry into a geographical market and the number of rivals that are already present in the target market. Within the strategy literature, theory of strategic interactions explains that firms will want to establish a foothold in markets where their multimarket competitors are scarce, but avoid markets where there are many multimarket competitors. Within economic geography, positive externalities such as increase in demand explain firms' desire to locate close to their rivals whereas negative externalities such as competition explain their desire to avoid them. Within the ecological tradition, density dependence theory explains this relationship in terms of legitimation of an organizational form in a particular market and subsequently increased competition for resources there. Within new institutional theory, the presence of rivals is seen as a signal that a particular market is suitable for entry. Although generally quoted and mentioned in the literature, these four explanations have not been sufficiently separated to indicate whether these four mechanisms all operate simultaneously or whether one of them might account for the often found inverse-U-shaped relationship. Distinguishing firms with different strategies and using various moderators, we test the four explanations jointly and demonstrate their scope of operation.

  18. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  19. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  20. ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procedures for evaluating the technical, economic, and financial aspects of urban water quality management planning problems are presented. Accepted principles of benefit-cost analysis are used to conduct the economic analysis. Benefits are measured as the reduction in damages as...

  1. Dimensional Analysis of Production and Utility Functions in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Minseong

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores dimensional analysis of production and utility functions in economics. As raised by Barnett, dimensional analysis is important in consistency checks of economics functions. However, unlike Barnett's dismissal of CES and Cobb-Douglas production functions, we will demonstrate that under constant return-to-scale and other assumptions, production function can indeed be justified dimensionally. And then we consider utility functions.

  2. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the pecision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor design with respect to a LOCA in light of acceptance criteria. What is the intent of the acceptance criteria? The LOCA is a design basis accident. That is, in principle, the reactor incurs a failure (such as a pipe break) that results in a loss of coolant; all other reactor systems operate as designed. The question is whether the reactor system as designed precludes fuel cladding failure, and, thereby, prevents a release of radiation. The decision rule with regard to cladding failure (and, thereby, reactor design acceptance) is specified through three criteria: peak cladding temperature (PCT), maximum local cladding oxidation (MLO) and core-wide cladding oxidation (CWO). The numerical values of these criteria reflect the material properties of the specific fuel element cladding and reactor coolant of the design under consideration. Throughout, for simplicity of illustration, only one acceptance criterion it is assumed, that of PCT and refer to it as LPCT. The extension to more than one numerical acceptance criterion is, in principle, straightforward. It is shown that, there are two fundamental issues with regard to the validity of the decision made under uncertainty with the best-estimate analyses as described here: A. The sample on which the decision is based is a random sample and a legitimate representation of the population with regard to the decision; B. The statistical inference is based on a statistic that has the correct physical interpretation for the problem at hand, such as the tolerance interval. We concentrated here primarily on the second of the two. There are no outstanding issues with regard to the validity of the statistical techniques. They are based on mathematical theorems and proven, as opposed to validated. On the other hand, the sample is the result of a deterministic calculation. The correctness of each observation in the sample depends on the validity of the thermal-hydraulic models; the numerical discretization of the models; and the solution algorithm. These have been and still are the central is

  3. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  4. Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Chong, M M; Paprzycki, M; Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analysis also shows that the three most important factors in fatal injury are: driver's seat belt usage, light condition of the roadway, and driver's alcohol usage.

  5. Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

  6. Business Conditions and Economic Analysis: An Experiential Learning Program for Economics Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, Robert C.; Stevens, Jerry L.

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the Business Conditions and Economic Analysis (BCEA) program developed at the University of Richmond. The BCEA program is an experiential learning format for economics students built on the success of student-managed investment funds (SMIF) in finance. In its initial implementation, the BCEA group conducts domestic and global…

  7. Developing a Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for PESTEL Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihsan Yüksel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Although the conceptual structure and nature of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological,Environment and Legal analysis requires an integrated approach to analysis, the technical framework ofPESTEL does not adequately support such an approach. PESTEL analysis, as it stands, mainly provides ageneral idea about the macro environmental conditions and situation of a company. This study presents a modelto address problems encountered in the measurement and evaluation process of PESTEL analysis. The integratedstructure of PESTEL factors and sub-factors were modeled by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process and ANP(Analytic Network Process techniques. Relationships between PESTEL factors were determined by DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory. Global weights of the sub-factors were calculated usingANP. The PESTEL analysis model proposed in the study could determine the extent to which the macroenvironment of a company provides suitable conditions to achieve the aims of the company.

  8. An Economic Analysis of Black Separatism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formby, John P.

    1973-01-01

    Analyzes black economic separatism following an approach which rests upon a modification of G.S. Becker's model of economic discrimination: black and white societies are viewed as being in a trading relationship in which resources are exchanged. (Author/JM)

  9. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume I. A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feinberg, A.; Miles, R.F. Jr.

    1978-06-01

    Multiattribute decision analysis is a methodology for providing information to a decision maker for comparing and selecting between complex alternatives. A brief introduction to the principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis is presented. The concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and the decision alternatives are presented. 50 references.

  10. Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paul

    2005-01-01

    Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this information, is likely to be better than that without it, whether it leads to faster termination of uneconomic projects or the allocation of more appropriate resources to attractive projects. PMID:15693724

  11. Multivariate analysis of ?ow cytometric data using decision trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SvenjaSimon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  12. Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Decision Support Systems: The Context of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fairouz Mosleh Aldhmour

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available  This research aimed to examine the main factors that influence the successful adoption of Decision SupportSystems (DSS in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA. It investigated a set of factors which are;System Characteristics (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU & Perceived usefulness (PU, Technical Aspects(information technology infrastructure & information systems interoperability, and Organizational Aspects (topmanagement support (TMS, management style (MS, & organizational structure (OS.A questionnaire was distributed to a sample of (161 respondents to collect primary data, & based on aconvenience sample the response rate was about 79%. Furthermore, the findings were analyzed using theStatistical Package for Social Software (SPSS, with an R2 of 35.3%, linear Multiple Regression analysis revealedthat all research variables have significant effect on successful adoption of DSS.The results indicated that PU & IT infrastructures have a positive & significant influence on the successfuladoption of DSS. Whereas, PEOU, IS interoperability, TMS, MS, & OS have no significant influence on thesuccessful adoption of DSS. Finally, the findings indicated that no significant statistical differences existedbetween respondents’ perceptions towards DSS adoption in terms of their demographic characteristics. Based onthe research findings & conclusions, a number of recommendations & future research suggestions are proposed.

  13. Management of the small acoustic neuroma: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telian, S A

    1994-05-01

    Imaging techniques such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with gadolinium may detect small acoustic neuromas before significant symptoms have developed. In this situation, the patient and surgeon may question whether the tumor requires treatment, especially if the tumor was discovered incidentally. A computerized clinical decision analysis was undertaken to model the decision to observe such tumors or proceed to immediate surgery. The decision tree was constructed with flexibility to account for tumor size, hearing level, and other critical variables such as the individual's aversion to unilateral hearing loss and facial paralysis. Unless life expectancy is short, the analysis suggests that surgery at the time of diagnosis is appropriate, assuming that growth of the tumor is anticipated. Variations in surgical proficiency and patient risk aversion within expected ranges do not influence the decision to operate. The most critical variable appears to be the probability that the tumor will remain stable in size. This finding suggests that better data regarding the growth rate of small acoustic neuromas is needed. PMID:8579140

  14. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA

    OpenAIRE

    MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with signif...

  15. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Trigonis; Ourania Matsouka; George Costa; George Tzetzis

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working i...

  16. Upcycling wastes with biogas production: : An exergy and economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Michael; Parsapour, Amin

    2012-01-01

    The massive consumption of finite resources creates high economical and environmental costs due to material dispersion and waste generation. In order to overcome this, by-products and wastes may be used, to avoid the use of virgin materials and benefit from the useful inherent energy of the material. By adding value to the material, economic and environmental performance can be improve, which is called upcycling. In this paper, an exergy and economic analysis of a biogas process is examined. ...

  17. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ...of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA...version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to...

  18. Democracy Deficits, Inequality and Pollution. A Politico-Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Drosdowski, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The article examines conditions, under which the degree of democratization influences environmental policy outcomes, with a given resource endowments' heterogeneity as a crucial feature of a politico-economic process. We develop an OLG model with pollution as an aggregate externality. The decisive voter chooses redistribution contributing to abatement financing. By comparing the optimal taxation under alternative political regimes we analyze their implications for environment, efficiency and ...

  19. Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    He?raud, Jean-alain; Ionescu, Oana

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly ...

  20. Economics 14.12: Lecture 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhamet Yildiz

    Lecture notes for a lesson at MIT on game theoretical approaches to decision making, including decision making with uncertain information and analysis of risk. The lesson primarily covers game theory and not economic applications.

  1. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    OpenAIRE

    Waal, A.; Ritchey, T.

    2007-01-01

    Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combinin...

  2. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  3. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with h ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional training nor building multiple decision models to assess the case-specific CAD accuracy

  4. Retrospective economic and financial analysis of the Laguna Verde Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this paper is to show, from an economic and financial point of view, the effects of the capital expenditure programme of the Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant Project on costs in terms of investment per kWh generated. An economic and a financial analysis are therefore included. Various investment periods and balanced costs are considered

  5. Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

    2012-05-01

    The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on the map; this may suggest a need to strengthen the decision-making processes by engaging these stakeholders more centrally and earlier. PMID:22513730

  6. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  7. Approaches to decision-making process in Environmental Economics (the results got during ISCS`2006)

    OpenAIRE

    Kostiuchenko, Nadiia Mykolaivna; ??????????, ????? ???????????; ??????????, ??????? ??????????; Kubatko, Oleksandr Vasylovych; ???????, ????????? ??????????; ???????, ????????? ??????????

    2006-01-01

    Several approaches to solving the ecological-economic problems on the way to sustainable development are given in the article. The next problems are examined: Positive and negative motivation for sustainable development, Ecological Economics - appearing of new science, Economic mechanisms of ecological management, Problem of resource scarcity and its solving, Development of ecological and green tourism in Ukraine, Methodology of water quality estimation, Problems of waste management, Economic...

  8. Modeling of financial and economic security of transport enterprises based on factor analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Novikov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Financial and economic security defines sustainable financial development of the enterprise, that is balanced and sustained, it justifies the necessity to achieve it through the effective use of all kinds of resources that are available at the enterprise. The purpose of the article is to improve the methodical estimation bases of the financial and economic security state at the transport enterprises, taking into account sector specificity for making the effective management decisions. Methodology. Theoretical and methodical basis of the research is in the systematic analysis of the process of assessing and modeling of the financial and economic security of enterprises in transport sector, theoretical principles of economic science in the sphere of financial efficiency evaluation of economic activities in a changing environment. Findings. The structure of the financial and economic security of the enterprises in transport industry was studied. The internal communication between the partial indicators of the investigated process for selection of necessary and sufficient quantities of the most indicative factors of influence were defined. Partial components of the financial and economic security based on the results of its modeling formation at the transport enterprises using factor analysis methods were systematized. Originality. Authors improved the methodological basis of quantitative evaluation of the financial and economic security level at the transport enterprises on the basis of the aggregate partial indicators, which was formed with industry specificity. This allows evaluating complex estimation of the degree of external and internal factors influence on the financial and economic security at the enterprises to ensure the effective management decisions making in order to achieve planned financial performance indicators of their activity. Practical value. Certain trends of forming ability of the transport companies to protect their financial interests are common for the studied objects. They explain 72% of the total variability of partial characteristics and reflect the modern process features of financial management and economic security. This justifies practical use expediency of the formed aggregate of the partial indicators of the financial and economic security as the basic parameters of the integrated assessment of its state at the transport industry enterprises for providing timely detection and prevention possible threats of company functioning in the financial environment.

  9. Economic analysis of nuclear plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many nuclear plants in the United States will reach their licensed plant lifetime (40 yr) in the next decade, a decision on whether to refurbish the existing plants or replace them will be necessary. Such decisions typically need to be made at least 10 yr prior to the nuclear plant license's expiration to allow time to plan for the potential replacement capacity. This paper reports on a study comparing the cost of extending the life of an existing nuclear plant to the cost of either a new coal-fired power plant or a new gas-fired combined-cycle plant. Pertinent input parameters and assumptions used in this paper are presented in a table. An overall net benefit for nuclear plant life extension (NUPLEX) is indicated

  10. Micro Simulation - A Tool for Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Klevmarken, N. Anders

    2001-01-01

    Micro simulation involves modeling the behavior of individuals and other decision units taking into account the effects of policy parameters such as tax rates, eligibility rules for benefits and subsidies and compensation rates in the social security system. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of policy changes not only on mean behavior but also on the entire distribution of target variables. Micro simulation models have thus, for instance, been used to analyze how changes in the inc...

  11. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts ated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  12. Advanced solar R and D. Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relationship between R and D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of R and D investments on the costs of emissions abatement. (author)

  13. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

  14. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  15. Financial development and economic growth. An empirical analysis for Ireland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Adamopoulos

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between financial development and economicgrowth for Ireland for the period 1965-2007 using a vector error correction model (VECM.Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reverselytaking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial marketdevelopment is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock marketdevelopment on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the long-runrelationship between these variables applying the Johansen cointegration analysis takinginto account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Granger causality testsindicated that economic growth causes credit market development, while there is a bilateralcausal relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Therefore, itcan be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development andcredit market development taking into account the positive effect of industrial productiongrowth on economic growth for Ireland.

  16. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  17. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  18. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  19. The sensitivity analysis of the economic and economic statistical designs of the synthetic X¯ chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeong, Wai Chung; Khoo, Michael Boon Chong; Chong, Jia Kit; Lim, Shun Jinn; Teoh, Wei Lin

    2014-12-01

    The economic and economic statistical designs allow the practitioner to implement the control chart in an economically optimal manner. For the economic design, the optimal chart parameters are obtained to minimize the cost, while for the economic statistical design, additional constraints in terms of the average run length is imposed. However, these designs involve the estimation of quite a number of input parameters. Some of these input parameters are difficult to estimate accurately. Thus, a sensitivity analysis is required in order to identify which parameters need to be estimated accurately, and which requires just a rough estimation. This study focuses on the significance of 11 input parameters toward the optimal cost and average run lengths of the synthetic ¯X chart. The significant input parameters are identified through a two-level fractional factorial design, which allows interaction effects to be identified. An analysis of variance is performed to obtain the P-values by using the Minitab software. The significant input parameters and interactions on the optimal cost and average run lengths are identified based on a 5% significance level. The results of this study show that the input parameters which are significant towards the economic design may not be significant for the economic statistical design, and vice versa. This study also shows that there are quite a number of significant interaction effects, which may mask the significance of the main effects.

  20. Methods for the analysis of economic efficiency of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This theme contains a description and detailed explanations of the various economic efficiency computations used in practice, taking into account a number of peculiarities of the analysis of investments and rationalization measures in commercial energy. 4 refs., tabs

  1. Handbook on the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Handbook on the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects was written for non-economists working in the planning, implementation, and management of water supplies. Created by the Asian Development Bank, the handbook is a resource guide to help staff of government agencies, financing institutions, and water utilities understand the principles of economic analysis of water supply projects. Written in easy-to-understand language, the handbook consists of nine chapters, each with separate tables of contents, with titles such as "Least Cost Analysis," "Demand Analysis and Forecasting," and "Sensitivity and Risk Analysis." Each chapter is available only in .pdf format and must be downloaded separately. Also included are an appendix and glossary.

  2. Multi-attribute decision theory and energy systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reports on the application of new developments in multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to energy systems analysis. In applying MAUT, the analyst has to extract decision maker's utility functions for individual attributes and preference weights for aggregating the individual utility functions. Such information is obtained from lottery-based inquiries (Keeney and Raiffa, 1976). While a decision maker can provide consistent and reasonable responses for single attribute lotteries, he/she often is unable or unwilling to provide precise multiattribute tradeoffs. It is possible, however, to obtain partial or imprecise information that is either represented by linear inequalities among the preference weights, or by semantic fuzzy responses. The author develops multi-attribute decision models and solution techniques for cases where partial and imprecise preference information is available. The methodologies outlined are then applied to two problems of energy systems analysis: siting of nuclear waste disposal facilities, and policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities to mitigate the impact of acid deposition

  3. Accounting Analysis of Economic Policy of Spain (2012)

    OpenAIRE

    Miguel Angel Pérez Benedito

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of economic policy is made through a new methodology using the information provided by businesses to the Bank of Spain. The financial statements are the result of economic and financial transactions in a year and show a behavior that is likely to be measured by applying the Edgeworth’s box for analysis. This means that it is possible to measure the response of firms against market disruptions through an accounting interpretation of the information contained in the financial sta...

  4. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  5. Comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability risk analysis and its application to water resource decision-making

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    Li, Xun-Gui; Wei, Xia; Huang, Qiang.

    Full Text Available Decision making for water resource planning is often related to social, economic and environmental factors. There are various methods for making decisions about water resource planning alternatives and measures with various shortcomings. A comprehensive entropy weight observability-controllability r [...] isk analysis approach is presented in this study. Computing methods for entropy weight (EW) and subjective weight (SW) are put forward based on information entropy theory and experimental psychology principles, respectively. Comprehensive weight (CW) consisting of EW and SW is determined. The values of observability-controllability risk (R) and gain by comparison (G) are obtained based on the CWs. The quantitative analysis of alternatives and measures is achieved based on Roc and Gbc. A case study on selection of water resource planning alternatives and measures in the Yellow River Basin, China, was performed. Results demonstrate that the approach presented in this study can achieve optimal decision-making results.

  6. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nicole M.; Sera, Maria D.; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P.

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of “cognitive entropy” were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured “chunking” of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  7. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  8. Economic analysis of micro CHP urban applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The development of the energy market, the introduction of new restrictions for minimizing the environmental impact of some generation technologies and the technological development in the area of strategic interest, produced the increase of the interest for high efficiency generation technologies. The energy consumption trends shows that, neglecting the considered economic increase scenario, the forecast of the world energy needs is an increase of global energy consumption. One possibility of improving the energy utilization and, at the same time, reducing the environmental pressure is represented by the introduction of small size combined heat and power production in buildings supplying local customers. In this paper typical building types and their energy needs are considered in order to estimate the environmental benefits and the economic feasibility of combined heat and power plants utilization. (authors)

  9. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

  10. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  11. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  12. 2008 Economic Crisis Analysis: The Macroeconomic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Golmohammadpoor Azar, Kamran

    2011-01-01

    Recent economic crisis started from the American Housing. In 2005, the price of housing started to grow and for gaining more profit, the banks inclined to housing and provided applicants with lots of facilities. With the burst of price bubbles, intense reduction of prices occurred in the housing market and the loan recipients did not have any motives to repay their loans. Therefore, the credit- providing and official organs that had given lots of facilities to the housing sector faced crisis....

  13. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  14. An Economic Analysis of Solar Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Chinnammai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental economic reality of fossil fuels is that such fuels are found only in a relatively small number of locations across the globe, yet are consumed everywhere. The economic reality, by contrast, is that solar resources are available, in varying degrees, all over the world. Fossil fuel and solar resource use are thus poles apart – not just because of the environmental effects, but also because of the fundamentally different economical, logical and differing political, social and cultural consequences. These differences must be acknowledged if the full spectrum of opportunity for solar resources is to be exploited. Therefore, this study concentrates on solar power as a renewable source of energy. It has many benefits compared to fossil fuels. It is clean and green, nonpolluting and everlasting energy. For this reason it has attracted more attention than other alternative sources of energy in recent years. Many energy economists say that solar energy is going to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. To highlight the importance of such a source of energy becomes not only important but also inevitable. This paper analyzes the determining factors of solar energy usage and also analyse the cost benefit of the different solar energy devises usage.

  15. Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiri, Fuzhan; Huang, Gordon; Fuller, Norma

    2007-01-01

    The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies. PMID:16516373

  16. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ? Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ? The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ? When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ? The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  17. The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision makers in the nuclear field have the difficult task of balancing the objectives of environmental protection and human safety with those of cost minimisation for the storage infrastructure. Both objectives interact in the optimisation issue of choosing the appropriate disposal stage according to a complex set of variables influencing the decision. Consequently the ability to adjust the disposal facilities according to the arrival of information over time is essential. In France, a 2006 Act institutes the reversible deep geological disposal as a norm, with different possible levels of retrievability of the radioactive waste packages. The reversibility in the gradual process of construction of a storage deposit is considered in order: i) to preserve some ability to take into account technological progress by considering the arrival of new information; ii) to allow future generations to make their own decisions about the storage of the waste. Moreover the exceptional dimension of temporality is important and must be taken into account in the decision process when defining the concept of reversibility. From the perspective of the economic evaluation of a reversible storage project, the multiplicity of uncertainties surrounding this issue renders the traditional method of calculating the net present value of the project irrelevant. Indeed, it tends to undervalue decisions, discounting the expected benefits and costs using exclusively the information available at thxclusively the information available at the time at which the decision is taken, namely at the original date. The Real Options Theory provides a more complete framework for project valuation and decision making when uncertainty and flexibility are central to the decision issue. It makes the arrival of new information in the future possible and it permits to consider some decisions that are irrelevant or impossible to take at the initial date but that may be essential in the future. So there is a need to evaluate these options available to the current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically helps to answer the following question: What is

  18. Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Ag through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

  19. Integrating Cognitive Mapping Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding

    OpenAIRE

    Kpoumie?, Amidou; Damart, Se?bastien; Tsoukia?s, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) is a process implying two distinctive actors (the client and the analyst) which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations, taking into account values of decision makers involved in a specific decision context. The theoretical framework of MCDA traditionally addresses problems involving a single decision maker. However, MCDA ought to investigate the case where the decision maker is made up of groups of individuals w...

  20. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  1. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

  2. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulusoy, Ali [School of Law, Ankara University (Turkey); Oguz, Fuat [Department of Economics, Baskent University, Eskisehir Yolu 20. km, 06530 Baglica, Ankara (Turkey)

    2007-10-15

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

  3. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process. (author)

  4. The privatization of electricity distribution in Turkey: A legal and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyzes the recent regulatory reform in the Turkish Electricity Distribution Market from a legal and economic perspective. We highlight tensions between the judiciary, politicians and bureaucracy and discuss their economic consequences. The paper engages in a discussion of economic consequences of legal procedures. We stress interactions between legal decisions and economic institutions. The historical positions of the Constitutional Court and Danistay (Council of State), on privatizations have been ambivalent and it is hard to qualify them as an incentive for privatization and reform, despite some recent liberal decisions. We address reasons behind their decisions and offer some suggestions toward improving the privatization process

  5. The effects of background music and sound in economic decision making: Evidence from a laboratory experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Fujikawa, Takemi; Kobayashi, Yohei

    2010-01-01

    This paper experimentally studies the effects of background music and sound on the preference of the decision makers for rewards in pairwise intertemporal choice tasks and lottery choice tasks. The participants took part in the current experiment, involving four treatments: (1) the familiar music treatment; (2) the unfamiliar music treatment; (3) the noise treatment and (4) the no music treatment. The experimental results confirm that background noise affects human performance in decision mak...

  6. A binary decision diagram for fault tree analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, binary decision diagram (BDD) algorithm is used for fault tree analysis. The ways of calculating failure probability and minimal cut-set (MCS) for certain fault trees are presented, including conversion from fault tree to BDD structure, obtaining MCS from BDD, MCS storage in terms of zero-suppressed BDD (ZBDD) for space-saving, and calculation of top event unavailability. A program was compiled and validated by calculating a PSA model of certain nuclear power plant both by hand and RiskSpectrum PSA. The comparison results show that the program can qualify and quantify a fault tree of relatively small scale. (authors)

  7. ArgMax: Economics News, Data, and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Created by John Irons, an assistant professor of economics at Amherst, the ArgMax Web site (named after a mathematical terms utilized in economics) provides a host of current news, data, and topical analysis of economics. Updated frequently by a newsbot, the news and commentary section is divided into several themed sections and drawn from a wide number of online sources. After reading some of these articles, visitors may want to consult the online economics glossary that offers brief explanations of terms ranging from absolute advantage to wire transfer. Another section contains the blog that Irons writes for the site and various articles of interest. The seemingly innocuous "Stuff" section contains some nice gems, including an interview with Irons about becoming involved in the field of economics. Overall, the site is a nice way for people who are familiar (or just getting acquainted) with the discipline. [KMG

  8. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  9. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  10. MEDICAL NEGLIGENCE: A LEGO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VENUGOPAL .B. S

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adoctor in the course of rendition of medical service to his patient shall comply with certain legal requirements. Accordingly he shall obtain the consent of a patient and the consent so obtained must be an informed one. He shall exercise reasonable care and skill in rendering his professional services. Any lapse on his part in this regard invites liability in the form of trespass for non-consensual treatment and tortious or contractual liability for medical negligence and failure to obtain an informed consent. In the above contemplated circumstances, a doctor attracts liability for deficiency in service under the Consumer Protection Act, subject to the conditions contemplated there in. A patient, if successful in proving medical negligence on the part of a doctor is entitled for compensation which has its own economic ramification both on the doctor as well as the patient. In this article, an attempt is made to critically analyse the concept of medical negligence from the legal and economic perspective.

  11. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  12. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggini, Marisa

    2014-12-01

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  13. Groundwater Management for Agriculture and Nature : an Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hellegers, P.

    2001-01-01

    Key words: desiccation of nature, economics of water management, groundwater extraction, groundwater level management, ecohydrology, agriculture, policy instruments.As a result of declining groundwater levels, nature in the Netherlands is suffering from desiccation. Since measures taken to raise groundwater levels in order to restore nature often lead to unintended wet damage to crops in adjacent farmland, an economic analysis to determine optimal solutions is required. The fundamental factor...

  14. Economic Analysis of Sugarcane Crop in District Charsadda

    OpenAIRE

    Husain, Anwar Hussain; Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Kjhattak

    2011-01-01

    A study was conducted during 2008 to make economic analysis of sugarcane crop in district Charsadda. The study was based on primary data collected from randomly selected five villages namely Dargai, Mani Khela, Sapula Khile, Qalat Naseer and Khule. The data were collected through structured questionnaire using a sample size of 50 farmers, allocating proportionally to these villages. The results reveled that the socio-economic variables like capital employment, labor employment, marketing...

  15. Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiszewski, Marek; Or?owski, Aleksander

    2015-03-27

    The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists - decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups - metrological, economical and the most importantly - environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction - based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction - based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools - NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. PMID:25704773

  16. Economics of reusable facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper some of the different economic development strategies that can be used for reusable facilities in the UK, Norway, Netherlands and in some production sharing contracts are outlined. These strategies focus on an integrated decision analysis approach which considers development phasing, reservoir management, tax planning and where appropriate facility purchase, leasing, or sale and leaseback decisions

  17. Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R W; DaVanzo, J

    1998-02-01

    Although the departure of children from the parental home is an important life-cycle event, few studies have investigated nest-leaving in developing countries. Using retrospective data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, we estimate hazard models of nest-leaving in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the departure of children, especially sons, responds to economic incentives, including housing costs, family businesses, education, and economic growth, and that ethnic differences in nest-leaving are important. We also find that the median age of departure from home has declined sharply over the past 40 years, a period of rapid social and economic change in Malaysia. PMID:9512913

  18. The dynamics of economic convergence: the role of alternative investment decisions.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Br?ha, Jan; Podpiera, J.

    2011-01-01

    Ro?. 35, ?. 7 (2011), s. 1032-1044. ISSN 0165-1889 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : two-country model ing * convergence * real exchange rate Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.855, year: 2011

  19. Helping patients make choices about breast reconstruction: a decision analysis approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Clement S; Cantor, Scott B; Reece, Gregory P; Fingeret, Michelle C; Crosby, Melissa A; Markey, Mia K

    2014-10-01

    Decision analysis can help breast reconstruction patients and their surgeons to methodically evaluate clinical alternatives and make hard decisions. The purpose of this article is to help plastic surgeons guide patients in making decisions though a case study in breast reconstruction. By making good decisions, patient outcomes may be improved. This article aims to illustrate decision analysis techniques from the patient perspective, with an emphasis on her values and preferences. The authors introduce normative decision-making through a fictional breast reconstruction patient and systematically build the decision basis to help her make a good decision. The authors broadly identify alternatives of breast reconstruction, propose types of outcomes that the patient should consider, discuss sources of probabilistic information and outcome values, and demonstrate how to make a good decision. The concepts presented here may be extended to other shared decision-making problems in plastic and reconstructive surgery. In addition, the authors discuss how sensitivity analysis may test the robustness of the decision and how to evaluate the quality of decisions. The authors also present tools to help implement these concepts in practice. Finally, the authors examine limitations that hamper adoption of patient decision analysis in reconstructive surgery and health care in general. In particular, the authors emphasize the need for routine collection of quality-of-life information, out-of-pocket expense, and recovery time. PMID:25357022

  20. Bio-economic modeling to support insemination decisions in dairy cows

    OpenAIRE

    Inchaisri, C.

    2011-01-01

    To achieve the optimal economic profit, the effort to increase milk production in a dairy cow has been generated. As a consequence of an increased milk production, it appears that the conception rate has been reported to decline during the last decade worldwide. For the optimal economics and to avoid effort for the lower conception rate in early lactation, the extension of calving interval has been suggested to be later than 12 to 13 months. However, the complexity of interactions and dynamic...

  1. When the business of sharing treatment decisions is not the same as shared decision making: A discourse analysis of decision sharing in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Maggie; Moir, Jim; Skelton, John; Dowell, Jon; Cowan, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Although shared decision making (SDM) in general practice continues to be promoted as a highly desirable means of conducting consultations it is rarely observed in practice. The aim of this study is to identify the discursive features and conversational strategies particular to the negotiation and sharing of treatment decisions in order to understand why SDM is not yet embedded into routine practice. Consultations from Scottish general practices were examined using discourse analysis. Two themes were identified as key components for when the doctor and the patient were intent on sharing decisions: the generation of patient involvement using first-person pronouns, and successful and unsuccessful patient requesting practices. This article identifies a number of conversational activities found to be successful in supporting doctors' agendas and reducing their responsibility for decisions made. Doctor's use of 'partnership talk' was found to minimize resistance and worked to invite consensus rather than involvement. The information from this study provides new insight into the consultation process by identifying how treatment decisions are arrived at through highlighting the complexities involved. Notably, shared decision making does not happen with the ease implied by current models and appears to work to maintain a biomedical 'GP as expert' approach rather than one in which the patient is truly involved in partnership. We suggest that further research on the impact of conversational activities is likely to benefit our understanding of shared decision making and hence training in and the practice of SDM. PMID:21212115

  2. PIEteR: a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing.

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, A. B.

    1996-01-01

    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly experimental sugar beet fields. Its prototype, which only simulated root and sugar yields, was selected through a test on the performance of four models and extended with a number of parameters: sugar content, (K + Na) an...

  3. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration

  4. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  5. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is that BI applications take data that is generated by the operations of an enterprise and translate that data into relevant and useful information for consumption by people throughout the enterprise.

  6. Analysis of the generalization ability of a full decision tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genrikhov, I. E.

    2014-06-01

    Classification algorithms based on full decision trees are investigated. Due to the decision tree construction under consideration, all the features satisfying a branching criterion are taken into account at each special vertex. The generalization ability of a full decision tree is estimated by applying margin theory. It is shown on real-life problems that the construction of a full decision tree leads to an increase in the margins of the learning objects; moreover, the number of objects with a positive margin increases as well. It is shown that the empirical Rademacher complexity of a full decision tree is lower than that of a classical decision tree.

  7. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base ?f ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator – the vulnerability index. Firstly, this index shows in what way the investors’ income changes while decreasing the profits in the sphere of agricultural land use by 1 per cent. Secondly, the above mentioned index defines the desire of investors to be present in agriculture under conditions of irrational use of the land resources. The author estimates investment quality by the criterion of «high – low» and interconnects it with substantiation of investment decisions in agricultural land use. Conclusions and directions of further researches. The author concludes that innovative approaches include the following issues: using of the category «investment quality» helps to raise substantiation of investment attractiveness assessment; the assessment of investment quality is undertaken from the side of each investment strategy which helps to describe motivation issues of investment process; the complex ecologically oriented strategy, offered by the author, is innovative by itself as it is based on the ecological and economic indicators of the investment quality, which has never calculated before. The implementation of such a complex ecologically oriented investment strategy is a subject for further researches.

  8. An Economic Analysis of College Scholarship Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, John D.

    A national scholarship policy based on a cost-benefit analysis of the social value of education is proposed as one method for improving current patterns of allocating US college scholarships and tuition funds. A central college subsidy agency, operating on a limited budget, would be required to allocate funds according to the maximum overall…

  9. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  10. DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC-ORGANISATIONAL ENTITIES OPERATING IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IOAN CONSTANTIN DIMA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The complete operating cycle of the organisational economic entity provides a connection between its actions and those actions that take place in the environment where it operates, which are deemed to be natural reactions of the environment to the operation of the organisational economic entity. The way in which the environment reacts to its operation must be understood as being the nature of the relations between events, factors and structures of the environment and not as an answer to what the organisational economic entity does. The same action of the organisational economic entity could therefore determine different environmental reactions to various moments and various actions. This is because organisational economic entities act under the conditions of the restrictions imposed by the environment. There are few cases where these restrictions are not observed and the environment reacts unambiguously. But, most of the time, the operating range is relatively tight, and inside of it only a very low part of it can be assigned to the actions taken by the organisation.

  11. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

  12. Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. Theprocess followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

  13. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and Sensitivity measures for soil aggregation, for developing dependence methodology, for constructing early alert logic, for tracking trends, for relating the Markov model to other (e.g., Reason) models, for developing and demonstrating rudimentary laptop software, and for developing an input/output display methodology.

  14. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hazelrigg, Jr, G A

    1980-12-31

    The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found.

  15. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current study reported here has involved three separate tasks. The first task deals with the development of expected utility analysis techniques for economic evaluation of fusion research. A decision analytic model is developed for the incorporation of market uncertainties, as well as technological uncertainties in an economic evaluation of long-range energy research. The model is applied to the case of fusion research. The second task deals with the potential effects of long-range energy RD and D on fossil fuel prices. ECON's previous fossil fuel price model is extended to incorporate a dynamic demand function. The dynamic demand function supports price fluctuations such as those observed in the marketplace. The third task examines alternative uses of fusion technologies, specifically superconducting technologies and first wall materials to determine the potential for alternative, nonfusion use of these technologies. In both cases, numerous alternative uses are found

  16. Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained

  17. The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdous Alam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

  18. Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis: Presentation of the COSIMA Software System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This paper presents a composite decision support system, COSIMA, programmed in MS Excel. COSIMA provides assistance to the decision maker as concerns complex decisions and strategic planning. The COSIMA software is designed as interconnected modules which make it possible to conduct Cost-Benefit Analysis and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) either in combination or separated. The MCA module is based on the AHP and SMARTER techniques. COSIMA also handles risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation.

  19. A speedy cardiovascular diseases classifier using multiple criteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wah Ching; Hung, Faan Hei; Tsang, Kim Fung; Tung, Hoi Ching; Lau, Wing Hong; Rakocevic, Veselin; Lai, Loi Lei

    2015-01-01

    Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC) for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented. PMID:25587978

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

    1996-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

  1. Environmental systems analysis tools for decision-making : LCA and Swedish waste management as an example

    OpenAIRE

    Moberg, A?sa

    2006-01-01

    Decisions are made based on information of different kinds. Several tools have been developed to facilitate the inclusion of environmental aspects in decision-making on different levels. Which tool to use in a specific decision-making situation depends on the decision context. This thesis discusses the choice between different environmental systems analysis (ESA) tools and suggests that key factors influencing the choice of ESA tool are object of study, impacts considered and information type...

  2. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    OpenAIRE

    IngoVernaleken; SusannePrinz; RalfDieterHilgers; OliverHoltemöller

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery parad...

  3. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Simoens

    2010-01-01

    An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from y...

  4. A Decision Tree Application in Tourism-based Regional Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Curtis, Panayiotis G.; Kokotos, Dimitris X.

    2008-01-01

    The reasons for the deficient performance of Ionian Islands tourism in terms of in coming revenues expressed in USD and return on equity capital invested on hotels is explored. The answers to the questioner of management of the hotels surveyed were analyzed with the use of the Decision Tree tool. The issue of competitiveness of the tourism product was assessed. The development of alternative forms of tourism is proposed as a means of improving competitiveness and restoring sustainability in t...

  5. Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility

  6. Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility

  7. Distinct neural activation patterns underlie economic decisions in high and low psychopathy scorers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Joana B; Almeida, Pedro R; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Barbosa, Fernando; Marques-Teixeira, João; Marsh, Abigail A

    2014-08-01

    Psychopathic traits affect social functioning and the ability to make adaptive decisions in social interactions. This study investigated how psychopathy affects the neural mechanisms that are recruited to make decisions in the ultimatum game. Thirty-five adult participants recruited from the community underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging scanning while they performed the ultimatum game under high and low cognitive load. Across load conditions, high psychopathy scorers rejected unfair offers in the same proportion as low scorers, but perceived them as less unfair. Among low scorers, the perceived fairness of offers predicted acceptance rates, whereas in high scorers no association was found. Imaging results revealed that responses in each group were associated with distinct patterns of brain activation, indicating divergent decision mechanisms. Acceptance of unfair offers was associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex activity in low scorers and ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity in high scorers. Overall, our findings point to distinct motivations for rejecting unfair offers in individuals who vary in psychopathic traits, with rejections in high psychopathy scorers being probably induced by frustration. Implications of these results for models of ventromedial prefrontal cortex dysfunction in psychopathy are discussed. PMID:23748499

  8. Neural dynamics of social tie formation in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bault, Nadège; Pelloux, Benjamin; Fahrenfort, Johannes J; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van Winden, Frans

    2014-10-22

    The disposition for prosocial conduct, which contributes to cooperation as arising during social interaction, requires cortical network dynamics responsive to the development of social ties, or care about the interests of specific interaction partners. Here, we formulate a dynamic computational model that accurately predicted how tie formation, driven by the interaction history, influences decisions to contribute in a public good game. We used model-driven functional MRI to test the hypothesis that brain regions key to social interactions keep track of dynamics in tie strength. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex tracked the individual's public good contributions. Activation in the bilateral posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), and temporo-parietal junction was modulated parametrically by the dynamically developing social tie-as estimated by our model-supporting a role of these regions in social tie formation. Activity in these two regions further reflected inter-individual differences in tie persistence and sensitivity to behavior of the interaction partner. Functional connectivity between pSTS and mPFC activations indicated that the representation of social ties is integrated in the decision process. These data reveal the brain mechanisms underlying the integration of interaction dynamics into a social tie representation which in turn influenced the individual's prosocial decisions. PMID:25338630

  9. Research of Public Policy Decision-Making Based on System Analysis Method

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Mei

    2014-01-01

    System analysis method is an important part of Marxist methodology, and the effective technical support tools of public policy decisions. The article illustrates the meaning and basic principle of system analysis, and based on it, this paper discusses the method of system analysis on public policy decision-making.

  10. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  11. To What Extent Educational Planning and Policy Decision ought to Be Guided by Economic Considerations – A Case Study on Recent Educational Developments of Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Wai Ki LO

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The ascendance to popularity of the liberal ideologies and the concepts of political economy of education will be put forward as the root cause for an increasing subordination of education objectives to national economic goals. Through a case study of the educational development of Hong Kong, this paper will evaluate the extent to which educational planning and policy decision should be guided by economic considerations. Although the rapid economic growth of Hong Kong and the rapid expansion of its education system in the past decades took place in parallel, there is no evidence that Hong Kong’s economic success is directly brought about by its education. It will be concluded that apart from economic contributions, education has its own intrinsic values. While economic considerations are useful for planning and policymaking at a macro level, it may not be appropriate to indiscriminately apply economic principles in an intrusive way to direct the priorities of institution management and classroom teaching.

  12. When is enough evidence enough? - Using systematic decision analysis and value-of-information analysis to determine the need for further evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Uwe; Rochau, Ursula; Claxton, Karl

    2013-01-01

    Decision analysis (DA) and value-of-information (VOI) analysis provide a systematic, quantitative methodological framework that explicitly considers the uncertainty surrounding the currently available evidence to guide healthcare decisions. In medical decision making under uncertainty, there are two fundamental questions: 1) What decision should be made now given the best available evidence (and its uncertainty)?; 2) Subsequent to the current decision and given the magnitude of the remaining uncertainty, should we gather further evidence (i.e., perform additional studies), and if yes, which studies should be undertaken (e.g., efficacy, side effects, quality of life, costs), and what sample sizes are needed? Using the currently best available evidence, VoI analysis focuses on the likelihood of making a wrong decision if the new intervention is adopted. The value of performing further studies and gathering additional evidence is based on the extent to which the additional information will reduce this uncertainty. A quantitative framework allows for the valuation of the additional information that is generated by further research, and considers the decision maker's objectives and resource constraints. Claxton et al. summarise: "Value of information analysis can be used to inform a range of policy questions including whether a new technology should be approved based on existing evidence, whether it should be approved but additional research conducted or whether approval should be withheld until the additional evidence becomes available." [Claxton K. Value of information entry in Encyclopaedia of Health Economics, Elsevier, forthcoming 2014.] The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce the framework of systematic VoI analysis to guide further research. In our tutorial article, we explain the theoretical foundations and practical methods of decision analysis and value-of-information analysis. To illustrate, we use a simple case example of a foot ulcer (e.g., with diabetes) as well as key references from the literature, including examples for the use of the decision-analytic VoI framework by health technology assessment agencies to guide further research. These concepts may guide stakeholders involved or interested in how to determine whether or not and, if so, which additional evidence is needed to make decisions. PMID:24315327

  13. An Economic Analysis of Black Separatism: A Reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, E. Grann

    1973-01-01

    This critique asserts that the author of An economic analysis of black separatism'' has a misconception of what black separatism is all about, attempting to treat this long-run phenomenon as a short-run matter which is already a fait accompli. (Author/JM)

  14. Economic Analysis. Volume VI. Segments 84-94.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The sixth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in Economic Analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 84-94 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of specialization and international trade. Other segments of the course, the behavioral objectives involved, and the various working papers from the…

  15. Economic Analysis. Volume II. Course Segments 19-34.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The second volume of the United States Naval Academy's individualized instruction course in economic analysis covers segments 19-34 of the course. Topics in this volume include the national income accounts, the theory of income determination, and the role of fiscal policy in income determination. Other segments of the course, the behavioral…

  16. A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events

  17. Voluntary Participation in Community Economic Development in Canada: An Empirical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Lamb

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is an empirical analysis of an individual's decision to participate in community economic development (CED initiatives in Canada. The objective of the analysis is to better understand how individuals make decisions to volunteer time toward CED initiatives and to determine whether the determinants of participation in CED are unique when compared to those of participation in volunteer activities in general. The dataset employed is Statistics Canada's 2004 Canada Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating (CSGVP. To date, there has been no prior econometric analysis of the decision to participate in community economic development initiatives in Canada. Results suggest a role for both public policymakers and practitioners in influencing participation in CED. / Cet article constitue une analyse empirique du processus de prise de décision chez les individus en ce qui a trait à la participation aux initiatives canadiennes de développement économique communautaire (DÉC. Le but de l'analyse est de mieux comprendre la façon dont les individus prennent la décision de consacrer du temps au bénévolat dans les initiatives de DÉC. Elle sert aussi à trancher la question de savoir si les facteurs de participation aux initiatives de développement économique communautaire sont uniques ou communs à la participation à des activités bénévoles en général. Les données employées dans le cadre de cette analyse sont puisées de l'Enquête canadienne sur le don, le bénévolat et la participation effectuée par Statistique Canada en 2004. À ce jour, aucune analyse économétrique n'a été menée sur la décision de participer aux initiatives canadiennes de DÉC. Les résultats suggèrent que les responsables de l'élaboration des politiques ainsi que les praticiens influencent tous deux la participation aux initiatives de DÉC.

  18. Exploring Decision Maker Attitudes Towards Urban Development using Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    The use of geographic information systems and MCDA techniques in identifying the most suitable areas for a particular use is a common method utilised within many planning and environmental topic areas. However despite this usage, the planning industry is as yet to realise the potential of combining the two methods in order to develop a more robust methodology aiding better decision making. This paper implements the fuzzy spatial decision model Analytical Hierarchy Process - Ordered Weighted A...

  19. To be or not to be - a long term economic decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer's primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada's geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry's willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author's contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs

  20. Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

  1. The Decision to Invest and Economic Growth. Romania’s Case

    OpenAIRE

    Popa, Raluca Andreea; Cra?ciun, Matei

    2011-01-01

    Over time there was a diverse and continually evolving methods of business development beyond the country of origin, from the traditional export with the center to the complex leading to today's concept of international investment. The level of humanity development known today results from an ongoing investment in various forms. Different ways of measuring the efficiency of investment and investment level were the subject of discussions since the beginning of economic science, leading today t...

  2. Decision analytic economic paliperidone ER in relapsing schizophrenic patients in Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Patrizia Berto; Cristina Negrini; Luigi Ferrannini

    2008-01-01

    Schizophrenia, with its typical chronic and relapsing course, is very burdensome, both clinically and economically. Its pharmacological management relies on two main drug classes: the older, or typical, antipsychotics, which are quite effective on positive symptoms, but limited by low tolerability and poor efficacy on negative symptoms, and atypical antipsychotics, which are better tolerated and effective on a wider range of psychotic symptoms. In this article, the authors briefly discuss cur...

  3. Forecast of the Economic- Financial Performance Based on Diagnostic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Solomon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available To ensure efficient financial management is necessary to achieve the forecast of economic and financial performance on the basis of diagnostic analysis, approach most often developed starting from the prediction of turnover and also necessary for shaping an organization's prospects. In financial management, the turnover’s increasing is considered an objective in itself, being interpreted as generating increased market share, profit. Sales condition therefore the entire activity of a company, their variation being considered the main risk factor of enterprise’s economic and financial performance and the staring point in their forecast.

  4. Techno-economic analysis of compressed air energy storage systems

    OpenAIRE

    Bozzolani, Emanuele

    2010-01-01

    The continuous escalation of intermittent energy added to the grid and forecasts of peaking power demand increments are rising the effort spent for evaluating the economic feasibility of energy storages. The aim of this research is the techno-economic analysis of Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) systems, capable of storing large quantities of off-peak electric energy in the form of high-pressure air, as an ?energy stock? which allows the production of high-profit on-peak electricity w...

  5. E3--ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ECONOMICS (SYSTEMS ANALYSIS BRANCH, SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGY DIVISION, NRMRL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The E3--Environmental Engineering Economics Program was established to provide environmental scientists and decision makers with a focal point for information on NRMRL activities related to the cost and cost-effectiveness of environmental technologies and risk management methods....

  6. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IngoVernaleken

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  7. Decision analysis in clinical cardiology: When is coronary angiography required in aortic stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision analysis offers a reproducible, explicit approach to complex clinical decisions. It consists of developing a model, typically a decision tree, that separates choices from chances and that specifies and assigns relative values to outcomes. Sensitivity analysis allows exploration of alternative assumptions. Cost-effectiveness analysis shows the relation between dollars spent and improved health outcomes achieved. In a tutorial format, this approach is applied to the decision whether to perform coronary angiography in a patient who requires aortic valve replacement for critical aortic stenosis

  8. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that traditional single gene lists do not, particularly in areas such as interaction discovery.

  9. A Qualitative Decision Trail in the Hermeneutic Analysis: Evidence from the Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad Hisyam Selamat; Azizi Hamizi Hashim

    2009-01-01

    Qualitative analysis is often reported as an intuitive, personal journey for the researcher. In this case, qualitative research texts are long on discussions of data collection and research experiences but short on analysis. This paper aims to reduce the tension in the qualitative analysis by adopting a decision making trail that is proposed by Clarke (1999). The reason behind this is that a decision trail does provide a clear and agreed analysis processes in qualitative analysis. The case th...

  10. The Decision to Start a New Firm: An Econometric Analysis of Regional Entrepreneurship in Tunisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islem Khefacha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the factors that promote or mitigate transitions into self-employment is crucial to regional economic development efforts, while the number of new business created play a significant role to regional economic vitality and represent a major signal of a dynamic economy. We use a new measure of firm formation based on the combination between individual background with effects depending on the regional context in Tunisia such as entrepreneurial human capital and labour force characteristics. Even though some of these factors have been the subject of several entrepreneurship studies, it is still difficult to identify which one impact significantly the decision to create a new firm.As an illustration, the model is estimated using a data provided by the National Tunisian Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM 2010 Project, based on the analysis of a sample of 1966 cases. The main findings of the study show that “competencies” measured by the two variables “knowing someone personally who started a business in the past 2 years” and “presence of good opportunities for starting a business” increase significantly the probability to create a new venture. In addition, we have found that the interaction between these two factors has a positive influence. However, “fear of failure” influences negatively the decision to start up. Finally, some fixed region-specific factors notably the average real wage of a region must be accounted for when estimating regional self-employment relationships. We discuss the implications of our results for policy-makers with useful information in designing and implementing policies to promote enterprise development.

  11. Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)

  12. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  13. Quantitative Analysis of Group Decision Making for Complex Engineered Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Broniatowski, David Andre; Coughlin, Joseph F.; Magee, Christopher L.; Yang, Maria

    2009-01-01

    Understanding group decision-making processes is crucial for design or operation of a complex system. Unfortunately, there are few experimental tools that might contribute to the development of a theory of group decision-making by committees of technical experts. This research aims to fills this gap by providing tools based on computational linguistics algorithms that can analyze transcripts of multi-stakeholder decision-making entities. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration medical device ap...

  14. Decision-Making on International Relations: A Theoretical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Andy Afinotan, L.

    2014-01-01

    In the course of everyday running of contemporary political and institutional systems, decision makers are often faced with a great complexity of big and small challenges requiring decisive action in line with laid down principles and rules of behaviour. In the process of trying to satisfy the various corporate interests within an institutional framework, the decision maker is faced with, and often has to choose between various competing policy options. Making use of library research methodol...

  15. A new decision model for economic evaluation of novel therapies for HCV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Ruggeri

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has given the license to two new direct-acting antiviral: sofosbuvir and simeprevir. The evidence provided by the studies, reported a high rate of SVR even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This and other innovative elements are potentially adept at changing the entire natural course of HCV. However, the dramatic prevalence rates of HCV observed in Italy, and the high prices that are expected to be required by the pharmaceutical industry, raises some critical issues about how to regulate access to such drugs. The objective of this article is to present a new decision model for the evaluation of novel therapies for HCV. This model is intended to provide a tool for the decision-maker that seeks to address the main issues related to the introduction of HCV new treatments. The model that we have structured follows the classic Bayesian approach, using data from reference literature for staging the action of treatments depending on the level of fibrosis (F0, F1, F2, F3, F4. The model is designed to consider patients with all genotypes and allows to make comparisons between innovative and traditional therapies (dual, triple, IFN free, PI combinations, etc., for both experienced and naïve patients. In addition, the model is used to simulate mixed cohorts of patients, representing a population with HCV with different levels of fibrosis and different genotypes. To show the potential of the model, we created some simple scenarios assuming different levels of SVR and pricing. The results of our model show that, even assuming an SVR rate of 100%, the administration of new treatments for HCV subjects F1 / 2 has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio not sustainable. In contrast, for the subjects F3 and F4, low incremental SVR rates and an incremental cost of the innovative therapy of € 40,000 would be cost effective. The added value of this model is its versatility and applicability to diverse assessment needs. In addition, the model offers an opportunity for reflection even to the industry, which in the years to come will have to develop strategies for entering the market and offer sustainable prices for decision-makers and at the same time remunerate the investment in research and development consistently with the expectations of the shareholders.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v15i3.945

  16. Cortical Brain Activity Reflecting Attentional Biasing Toward Reward-Predicting Cues Covaries with Economic Decision-Making Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G; Huettel, Scott A; Woldorff, Marty G

    2014-08-19

    Adaptive choice behavior depends critically on identifying and learning from outcome-predicting cues. We hypothesized that attention may be preferentially directed toward certain outcome-predicting cues. We studied this possibility by analyzing event-related potential (ERP) responses in humans during a probabilistic decision-making task. Participants viewed pairs of outcome-predicting visual cues and then chose to wager either a small (i.e., loss-minimizing) or large (i.e., gain-maximizing) amount of money. The cues were bilaterally presented, which allowed us to extract the relative neural responses to each cue by using a contralateral-versus-ipsilateral ERP contrast. We found an early lateralized ERP response, whose features matched the attention-shift-related N2pc component and whose amplitude scaled with the learned reward-predicting value of the cues as predicted by an attention-for-reward model. Consistently, we found a double dissociation involving the N2pc. Across participants, gain-maximization positively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable gain-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional bias toward such cues. Conversely, loss-minimization was negatively correlated with the N2pc amplitude to the most reliable loss-predicting cue, suggesting an attentional avoidance toward such stimuli. These results indicate that learned stimulus-reward associations can influence rapid attention allocation, and that differences in this process are associated with individual differences in economic decision-making performance. PMID:25139941

  17. Exports and Nigerians Economic Growth: A Co-Integration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udude Celina C

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This research work employed the use of cointegration analysis in the study of export and economic growth in Nigeria. It was embarked on, in order to determine whether there is bi-directional relationship between exports and economic growth in Nigeria. More so, it tries to evaluate significant impact of exports on the economic growth in Nigeria. On the application of advanced econometric techniques like Augumented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Mechanism, the following information surfaced: - There existed a long-run relationship with economic growth and export in Nigeria. None of the variables were stationary at zero level. This means they all have unit roots. Having integrated the short run dynamics and long run equilibrium, Imports (IMP and Exchange Rate were positively correlated with GDP while Exports (EXC was negatively related with GDP. The short-run dynamics adjusts to the long-run equilibrium at the rate of 0.866% per annum. In the bid to achieve economic growth, it was recommended that there should be diversification of export commodities, infrastructure development, and maintenance of stable exchange rate and operationalization of Export Processing Zones.

  18. A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bier, Asmeret Brooke

    2014-01-01

    Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

  19. Economic Growth and Business Cycles: The Labor Supply Decision with Two Types of Technological Progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip E. Graves

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available An informal model is described that leads to multiple macroeconomic equilibria as a consequence of random variation in the relative amounts of technological change for new and existing goods. The novel observation is that the rate of introduction and market penetration of new goods (sometimes called product innovation vis-à-vis technological advance for existing goods (sometimes called process innovation importantly affects the labor supply decision. A relatively rapid influx of new goods will generally increase labor supply, while relatively more technological advance for existing goods will reduce labor supply to the market. These impacts are seen to provide insights into Rostow’s stages of growth. Short run variations in the relative importance of the two types of technological change are seen to imply unpredictable business cycle behavior of the type we observe. The welfare implications of national income accounting that fails to consider changes in leisure are discussed.

  20. Economic considerations and decision support tool for wastewater reuse scheme planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochstrat, R; Joksimovic, D; Wintgens, T; Melin, T; Savic, D

    2007-01-01

    The reuse of upgraded wastewater for beneficial uses is increasingly adopted and accepted as a tool in water management. However, funding of schemes is still a critical issue. The focus of this paper is on economic considerations of water reuse planning. A survey of pricing mechanisms for reclaimed water revealed that most schemes are subsidised to a great extent. In order to minimise these state contributions to the implementation and operation of reuse projects, their planning should identify a least cost design option. This also has to take into account the established pricing structure for conventional water resources and the possibility of gaining revenues from reclaimed water pricing. The paper presents a case study which takes into account these aspects. It evaluates different scheme designs with regard to their Net Present Value (NPV). It could be demonstrated that for the same charging level, quite different amounts of reclaimed water can be delivered while still producing an overall positive NPV. Moreover, the economic feasibility and competitiveness of a reuse scheme is highly determined by the cost structure of the conventional water market. PMID:17881851

  1. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  2. Aspects regarding the analysis of the rationality of the buying decision of the Romanian consumer

    OpenAIRE

    Pela?u, Corina

    2012-01-01

    One of the biggest challenges of economic theory is to determine the effectiveness and efficiency of economic activities and processes. In terms of consumer behavior this can be defined by the rationality of the buying decision. In this article there are presented several theories that have defined over time and still influence the rationality of the consumer. There are also presented the results of a research which aims to analyze the rationality of the consumer. In particular there are anal...

  3. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    The rapid growth of high-data-rate applications along with the fact that the majority of mobile data traffic is originated indoor has drawn much attention on IBW (In Building Wireless) solutions, from industry to academic research. The mobile network operators seek proper indoor solutions to accommodate the high indoor traffic demand for their future network evolution. In this thesis, we study the dedicated indoor systems for enterprise solutions. The DAS and Femtocells constitute two major IBW solutions for efficient in-building coverage extension and capacity provision. This study makes a technology economical examination based on these two systems for network evolution using the LTE technology. The performance is evaluated based on simulations. Overall, the DAS is less efficient in providing high speed, high volume mobile data services than the multi-cell system, i.e. the Femto system and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto system has absolute advantage compared to the DAS. For coverage-oriented deployment with very limited user data traffic demand, DAS is the most economical solution in large-size buildings, and Femto is more economical for deployment in small-size buildings.

  4. How health economic evaluation (HEE) contributes to decision-making in public health care: the case of Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Flávia Tavares Silva; Araújo, Denizar Vianna

    2014-01-01

    The universal access to a health care system for the Brazilian population was established in 1990. Brazil is a country with no tradition in the production and use of health economic evaluation (HEE) to guide decision making in the public health system. It is only within the last two decades that HEEs using a microeconomic approach have appeared in the academic field. On a national level, HEE and Health Technology Assessment (HTA), in a wider sense, were first taken into account in 2003. Two policies deserve to be mentioned - (i) the regulation of medicines in the Brazilian market, and (ii) science, technology and innovation policy. The latter required the fostering of applied research to encourage the application of methods which employ systematic reviews and economic analyses of cost-effectiveness to guide the incorporation of technologies in the Brazilian health care system. The Ministry of Health has initiated the process of incorporating these new technologies on a federal level during the last ten years. In spite of the improvement of HEE methods at Brazilian universities and research institutes, these technologies have not yet reached the governmental bodies. In Brazil, the main challenge lies in the production, interpretation and application of HEE to all technologies within the access scheme(s), and there is limited capacity building. Setting priorities can be the solution for Brazil to be able to perform HEE for relevant technologies within the access scheme(s) while the universal coverage system struggles with a triple burden of disease. PMID:25444299

  5. Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

    2010-01-06

    The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically high purity (limited dissolved solids) is used inside boilers, reactors or electrolyzers because as it changes phase or is consumed, it leaves very little residue behind. Pre-treatment of 'raw' source water to remove impurities not only enables efficient hydrogen production, but also reduces maintenance costs associated with component degradation due to those impurities. Cooling water has lower overall quality specifications, though it is required in larger volumes. Cooling water has distinct quality requirements aimed at preserving the cooling equipment by reducing scaling and fouling from untreated water. At least as important as the quantity, quality and cost of water inputs to a process are the quantity, quality and cost of water discharge. In many parts of the world, contamination from wastewater streams is a far greater threat to water supply than scarcity or drought (Brooks, 2002). Wastewater can be produced during the pre-treatment processes for process and cooling water, and is also sometimes generated during the hydrogen production and cooling operations themselves. Wastewater is, by definition, lower quality than supply water. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities can handle some industrial wastewaters; others must be treated on-site or recycled. Any of these options can incur additional cost and/or complexity. DOE's 'H2A' studies have developed cost and energy intensity estimates for a variety of hydrogen production pathways. These assessments, however, have not focused on the details of water use, treatment and disposal. As a result, relatively coarse consumption numbers have been used to estimate water intensities. The water intensity for hydrogen production ranges between 1.5-40 gallons per kilogram of hydrogen, including the embedded water due to electricity consumption and considering the wide variety of hydrogen production, water treatment, and cooling options. Understanding the consequences of water management choices enables stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding water use. Water is a fundamentally reg

  6. Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

  7. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  8. Financial Development and Economic Growth An Empirical Analysis for Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Vazakidis

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study investigated the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether financial development causes economic growth or reversely taking into account the positive effect of industrial production index. Financial market development is estimated by the effect of credit market development and stock market development on economic growth. The objective of this study was to examine the causal relationships between these variables using Granger causality tests based on a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Approach: To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences according to Dickey-Fuller (1979. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. A vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. Finally, Granger causality test was applied in order to find the direction of causality between the examined variables of the estimated model. Results: A short-run increase of stock market index per 1% leaded to an increase of economic growth per 0.06% in Greece, also an increase of bank lending per 1% leaded to an increase of economic growth per 0.14% in Greece, while an increase of productivity per 1% leaded to an increase of economic growth per 0.32% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term found statistically significant with a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that economic growth causes stock market development and industrial production index, while industrial production index causes credit market development for Greece. Conclusion: Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a positive effect on stock market development and credit market development through industrial production growth in Greece.

  9. Valuing groundwater: a practical approach for integrating groundwater economic values into decision making - A case study in Namibia, Southern Africa

    Scientific Electronic Library Online (English)

    C, Bann; SC, Wood.

    Full Text Available Groundwater provides a range of services to people in Southern Africa; however, the benefits provided by these services are often not fully appreciated and factored into decisions about groundwater management and use. After outlining briefly the importance of groundwater in the region and the pressu [...] res facing groundwater, this paper discusses how economic valuation can help improve its management. The main focus of the paper is the presentation of the practical 5-step economic valuation methodology that has been developed as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Groundwater and Drought Management Project. This methodology can be generally applied to groundwater management issues across the SADC region. The methodology is based upon an ecosystem services approach which considers all the potential services that groundwater provides, which can result in improvements in human welfare. These services include provisioning services such as water for domestic use, agriculture and industry; regulating services such as the recharge of surface waters and carbon storage benefits; and cultural services such as the tourism associated with wildlife at groundwater-fed watering holes. The methodology incorporates a 2-tiered valuation approach. The Tier 1 valuation is based on market pricing and value-transfer approaches and can provide an initial view of the economic value of a resource in a particular use. A value-transfer tool has been developed, which allows the user to select from a menu of the currently available transfer values for use in an assessment. A Tier 2 valuation requires more detailed primary studies and may be required following a Tier 1 assessment where more certainty in decision-making is required. The methodology has been tested at 4 pilot sites in the region. An example of the application of the SADC groundwater-valuation methodology in Namibia is presented in this paper. The paper concludes with recommendations for the development of groundwater valuation in the region. Emphasis is placed on training, the commissioning of more groundwater-valuation studies and the need for more scientific research to facilitate the valuation of groundwater-regulating services.

  10. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

  11. Integrated Water and Energy Analysis at Decision Relevant Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, D. N.; Sieber, J.; Heaps, C.; Purkey, D.; Mehta, V. K.

    2012-12-01

    While the energy-water nexus information-base has been growing, there remains few modeling tools able to evaluate the interactions and feedbacks between these sectors at decision relevant scales. In particular, a spatially explicit coupled modeling system would facilitate a more complete and accurate evaluation of the workability and consequences of alternative climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. For example, in order to evaluate a region's changing water supply sources, it will be important to represent the water side of a coupled modeling system in some detail. It would also be valuable to simultaneously work through the energy use and carbon emission consequences of the region's water adaptation alternatives, as well as the potential feedbacks associated with new energy system developments on system-wide water demands. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long Range Energy Alternatives (LEAP) tools have been integrated to explicitly couple water and energy systems to conduct such analysis. We demonstrate the merits of this integration for the Southwestern U.S.he Integration of LEAP (left) and WEAP (right)

  12. Accounting Analysis of Economic Policy of Spain (2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Angel Pérez Benedito

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of economic policy is made through a new methodology using the information provided by businesses to the Bank of Spain. The financial statements are the result of economic and financial transactions in a year and show a behavior that is likely to be measured by applying the Edgeworth’s box for analysis. This means that it is possible to measure the response of firms against market disruptions through an accounting interpretation of the information contained in the financial statements. The indicators obtained through this methodology measure a position taken in the Edgeworth’s box. Consequently, the observations obtained are random and therefore may explain the evolution of the economy of any country.

  13. Economic analysis in medical education: definition of essential terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kieran

    2014-10-01

    Medical education is expensive. There is a growing interest in the subject of cost and value in medical education. However, in the medical education literature, terms are sometimes used loosely - and so there is a need for basic grounding in the meaning of commonly used and important terms in medical education economics. The purpose of this article is to define some terms that are frequently used in economic analysis in medical education. In this article, terms are described, and the descriptions are followed by a worked example of how the terms might be used in practice. The following terms are described: opportunity cost, total cost of ownership, sensitivity analysis, viewpoint, activity-based costing, efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, price and transaction costs. PMID:25072235

  14. Modelling for Pest Risk Analysis: Spread and Economic Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Carrasco Torrecilla, Luis Roman

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range is one of the main causes of the loss of biodiversity and leads to severe costs. Bioeconomic models that integrate biological invasion spread theory, economic impacts and invasion management would be of great help to increase the transparency of pest risk analysis (PRA) and provide for more effective and efficient management of invasive pests. In this thesis, bioeconomic models of management of invasive pests are ...

  15. Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming

    OpenAIRE

    Wenum, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for wildlife in agriculture, specifically applicable at farm level, (2) definition of a wildlife production function, (3) definition of the optimal strategy for incorporating wildlife conservation measures...

  16. An economic analysis of identity and career choice

    OpenAIRE

    Knoth Humlum, Maria; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Skyt Nielsen, Helena

    2007-01-01

    Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary returns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof and Kranton (2000), we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors relate...

  17. An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Bahri Sahin; Huseyin Yilmaz; Yasin Ust; Ali Fuat Guneri; Bahadir Gulsun; Eda Turan

    2014-01-01

    A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into accoun...

  18. Sovereign Wealth Fund Decision Scorecard (DSC - Macroeconomic Evidences from Emerging Economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manvinder Singh Pahwa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs with combined asset under management of around $4.8 Trillion have emerged as major power in the financial world. However, literature which has empirically analyzed the decision variables impacting the establishment of these funds is limited. Authors has identified and collaborated list of 63 variables which were then rationalized to list of 30 variables that may have affected establishment of Sovereign Wealth Fund for Emerging economies of China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil and analyzed the static state of these variables at the time of establishment of these funds. For India another set of 30 variables were identified and the static state of these variables was then analyzed with respect to macroeconomic and socio-political environment in the country as on 2011. Authors observed the paradox of political stability coupled with low scoring on corruption barometer for all these emerging economies. Author also argue, that all the countries including India do confirm to reserve adequate matrice but risk of capital flight, current account and fiscal account deficit with social and infrastructure trade-off will be major debate issues and weigh heavily against the creation of such fund.

  19. A Hybrid Method Using Factor Analysis and AHP on Passenger Purchase Decisions: The Case of Domestic Airlines in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozlem Atalik

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates factors affecting purchase decisions of domestic airline passengers and their preference priorities. Airline business is substantially dynamic as a service based business. Continuous change in passenger expectations and the increasing number of economic recessions in the world economies are compelling airlines to foresee and to design new services according to the priorities of passengers. In this study, the method uses factor analysis to describe factors affecting purchase decisions and subsequently Analytic Hierarchy Process defines the priorities among the rivals depending on the findings of first part. Output of the model provides us to specify the factors that affect priorities from the passengers’ perspective. Hereby model can help to enhance items according to priorities. The hybrid approach is performed on a sample of 387 domestic passengers in Turkey through online questionnaires. On the other hand findings of the study depend on culture and should be adjusted for other cases.

  20. Use of external cost assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis for comparative evaluation of options for electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper addresses external cost and multi-criteria analyses carried out for selected future electricity generating systems of interest under the Swiss conditions. The external cost estimates are based on an application of the 'impact pathway approach', enhanced by earlier experience from extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The estimated total costs, i.e. the sum of internal and external costs, may serve as a measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems. The multi-criteria approach allows a more explicit consideration of the social dimension, which is highly important for the decision-making process. The applications of multi-criteria analyses illustrate the sensitivity of the results to the range of preferences expressed in the energy debate. Certain patterns in system ranking can be observed in spite of these sensitivities. Both total cost assessment and multi-criteria analysis are found to be useful, complementary instruments to support procedures for decision-making. (author)

  1. Science, governance, and public participation: an analysis of decision making on genetic modification in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurian, Priya; Wright, Jeanette

    2012-05-01

    The acceptance of public participation in science and technology governance in liberal democratic contexts is evident in the institutionalization of a variety of mechanisms for participation in recent decades. Yet questions remain about the extent to which institutions have actually transformed their policy practice to embrace democratic governance of techno-scientific decision making. A critical discourse analysis of the response to public participation by the Environmental Risk ManagementAuthority (ERMA), the key decision-making body on genetic modification in Aotearoa/New Zealand, in a specific case demonstrates that ERMA systematically marginalized concerns raised by the public about risk management, ethics, and ecological, economic, and cultural issues in order to give primacy to a positivist, technological worldview. Such delegitimization of public perspectives pre-empts the possibility of the democratic governance of science. PMID:23038858

  2. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making : a systematic literature review of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    SØgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studies that was hard to explain.

  3. Socio-economic impact analysis of new AECB regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The federal government's Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIA) policy has been in effect since 1978. Under this policy, all new or amended regulations concerning health, safety, or fairness are subjected to a screening exercise which determines whether the regulations are 'major' or 'minor'. The costs and benefits of major regulations are analyzed in depth. This paper describes the SEIA policy and explains some of the basic concepts. Then the steps the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) follows in the analysis of new regulations are summarized. Finally, the AECB's past and forthcoming experience with the SEIA policy is discussed

  4. Socio-economic Condition of Child Worker of Bangladesh in Their Adulthood: An Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Imran Ali Meerza; Biswajit Bacher

    2011-01-01

    This study has mainly focused on the current socio-economic condition of those people who were child labor in their childhood. In this study, economic indicators are income and employment status. On the other hand, level of education, health status and role in case of decision making in the society are studied as social indicators. According to this study, socio-economic condition of child workers in their adulthood is not very satisfactory. In this research work, we have used Linear Probabil...

  5. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GORJ COUNTY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES IN CRISIS

    OpenAIRE

    CONSTANTA ENEA; CONSTANTIN ENEA; CARINA ELENA STEGAROIU

    2012-01-01

    Purpose of the paper is to highlight how the economy evolved in the Florida county comparison with neighboring counties in economic crisis that society through the difficult years. also study and make acomparison in terms of demographic characteristics, respectively, compared between young and old, labor migration, etc. form., indices that are decisive for evaluating the economic situation of the county above mentioned. Economically, the county is in the connection between the economy and sub...

  6. Illuminating decision drivers using a decision analysis framework for the U.S. nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear fuel cycle studies have provided a wealth of information on the potential impacts of advanced recycling systems. Deciding on fuel cycle implementation pathways, however, will require synthesizing the volumes of data and navigating tradeoffs between fuel cycle options. This research presents a framework intended to aid fuel cycle decision-makers, focusing on the cost reduction/waste mitigation tradeoff as a lens for choosing a near-term strategy. The framework consists of a fuel cycle simulation coupled to a decision tree model, which maps evolution scenarios. System scenarios are constructed by considering the technological options for fuel cycle evolution and key uncertainties expected to affect the desirability of those options. For this initial study, the once-through fuel cycle is compared to a self-sustaining fast reactor fuel cycle. System scenarios are compared using a value function that incorporates cost and waste metrics. The results indicate that uranium costs and the attainable level of reprocessing efficiency may not significantly impact the suite of desirable decisions. On the other hand, the pattern and timing of nuclear builds, as well as the extent to which fast reactors provide true waste mitigation, are two issues which more significantly affect the attractiveness of closing the fuel cycle. (author)

  7. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  8. Economism

    OpenAIRE

    Simons, P.

    2010-01-01

    Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism), but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism). The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of peopl...

  9. Economic analysis of the cost of Intensive Care Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazetas D.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The cost of Intensive Care Units has the greatest impact on overall medical costs and the overall cost for the health of a country and an increasing number of studies from around the world presenting the quantification of these costs. Aim: Review of the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Method: Search was made in the SCOPUS, MEDLINE and CINAHL databases using the key-words “Intensive Care Units (ICU”, “Cost”, “Cost Analysis”, “Health Care Costs”, “Health Resources”, “ICU resources”. The study was based on articles published in English from 2000 to 2011 investigating the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Results: The cost of ICU is a significant percentage of gross domestic product in developed countries. Most cost analysis studies that relate to plans that include the study of staff costs, duration of stay in the ICU, the clinical situations of hospitalized patients, engineering support, medications and diagnostic tests costing scales and in relation to the diagnostic criteria. Conclusions: most studies conclude that the remuneration of staff, particularly nurses, in the ICU is the largest cost of ICU, while for the duration of stay in the ICU results are conflicting. The analysis on the cost-effectiveness of ICU can help to better apply these findings to the therapeutic context of ICU.

  10. Analysis of decisions and evaluation of components influencing the state of decisions of nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A proposal for reporting and for feedback of human malfunctions at Swedish nuclear power plants is presented for regular use. The method is intended for the description of terms which are independent of the situation. There is also the possibility to improve the exchange of experience with other countries. The proposed method was tested on a couple of incidents at Swedish nuclear power plants. The simplified version of the decision analysis was found to be sufficient for uncomplicated cases. (G.B.)

  11. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes; Luís Alberto Duncan Rangel; Priscila Pereira Fernandes

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the c...

  12. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Andrey Kudryavtsev; Julia Pavlodsky

    2012-01-01

    We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a nu...

  13. ACCOUNTING INFORMATION - THE BASE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Ionel V?T??OIU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Accounting information must allow both the current and potential investors to identify measure, classify, and evaluate all operations and activities of an enterprise. Undoubtedly, one of the most important is that accounting provides accounting information. This allows management decisions and proper investment by current and potential investors. This paper aims to show that it is important accounting information in making management decisions and investments, which are the characteristics and conditions necessary for accounting information is used efficiently.

  14. An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Richard; McClement, Isobel; McFarlane, Ian

    2010-03-01

    A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period. PMID:20004032

  15. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.; Hunter, S.; Calzonetti, F.J.

    1992-10-01

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility`s participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities.

  16. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility's participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities

  17. Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

  18. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installationlemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  19. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

  20. Projects Bidding Decision Risk Analysis Based on Multi-factor Clustering Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Project risk management is a very complex work which the pre-bid decision-making risk is one of the important aspects among. This study is based on the consideration the facts that the general contractor risk management of project is a strong empirical work as well as the indicators described the project characteristic are mostly qualitative indicators. It adjusts the usual quantification mode of qualitative indicators did in the past. It introduced cluster analysis technique, established the analysis model based on the multi-objectives function optimum factors and hybrid scale stepwise clustering. Additionally, through the approach of established projects sample risk factor data mining, this study proposed scientific theory evidence for the decision making of general contractor construction project bidding.

  1. Teleradiology: economic analysis of CT investigations of a small hospital

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: to evaluate, discuss and compare economic aspects of teleradiological applications in CT examinations in a small hospital. Scenario (1): CT examination by an extern institution including transport of a patient. Szenario (2): External consultation of an internal CT examination (teleradiology according to ROeV). Scenario (3): Complete in-house radiology department. To evaluate economic aspects of teleradiology service providers. Materials and methods: costs have been separated into fixed and variable costs in a model. Total costs of 500 CT examinations per year have been calculated for the three scenarios. A break-even analysis has been performed to determine the necessary/minimal number of CTs per year for economical advantages. The number of CT consultations for teleradiology service providers to make profit has been calculated. Results: scenario (1): this is the most cost-effective scenario for 500 CTs per year, but most time-consuming. Beyond 548 CTs per year using a single slice CT and 965 CTs per year using a multislice CT the teleradiology scenario [scenario (2)] is most cost-effective. Beyond 1065 CTs per year an in-house radiology department [scenario (3)] is economically reasonable. On the basis of 30 Euros per CT consultation a teleradiology service providing system will be profitable starting from 322 CT consultations per year. Conclusion: teleradiology applications are economically reasonable in a wide range in small hospitals. CT teleradiology sere in small hospitals. CT teleradiology services can also be provided on a cost-effective basis at a reachable number of consultations. (orig.)

  2. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    OpenAIRE

    Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs) for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE) method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI). The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD), and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD) and can be quantified using a multi-criteria deci...

  3. Economic Analysis of Cassava Production in Benue State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.U. Odoemenem

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The study was undertaken to analyze the economics of cassava production in Benue State. Data for this study were collected from a sample of one hundred and sixteen small-scale cassava farmers randomly selected. The objectives of the study were to determine and rank the cost elements of cassava production in the study area; determine the returns to cassava production; and evaluate the profitability of cassava production in the study area. Socio-economic factors include age, educational background, marital status, sex, sources of labour, awareness of extension services, method of weed control, and method of farm land acquisition were identified. Data collected for the study were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The coefficient of determination (R2 is 0.616, suggesting that the used model has a high goodness of fit. Furthermore, the result of the statistical analysis shows that investing in cassava production enterprise is profitable.

  4. Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-06-01

    This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.

  5. Thermo-economic analysis of Shiraz solar thermal power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaghoubi, M. [Academy of Science, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mokhtari, A.; Hesami, R. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). School of Engineering

    2007-07-01

    The Shiraz solar thermal power plant in Iran has 48 parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) which are used to heat the working oil. There is potential to significantly increase the performance and reduce the cost of PTC solar thermal electric technologies. Conventional energy analysis based on the first law of thermodynamics does qualitatively assess the various losses occurring in the components. Therefore, exergy analysis, based on the second law of thermodynamics, can be applied to better assess various losses quantitatively as well as qualitatively. This paper presented a newly developed exergy-economic model for the Shiraz solar thermal power plant. The objective was to find the minimum exergetic production cost (EPC), based on the second law of thermodynamics. The application of exergy-economic analysis includes the evaluation of utility supply costs for production plants, and the energy costs for process operations. The purpose of the analysis was to minimize the total operating costs of the solar thermal power plant by assuming a fixed rate of electricity production and process steam. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.

  6. The use (or rather the non-use) of cost-effectiveness data in priority setting decisions – are we underestimating the barriers to using health economics in real world priority setting decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erntoft, Sandra T.

    2015-01-01

    After having practicing and researching health economics for nearly 15 years now, it has become clear to me that the use of cost-effectiveness data in priority setting decisions is rather a rare than a common practice. The Eckard et al. article though, describes a wonderful exception to this rule and a very good example of how it can be used when the conditions are right. However, do we fully understand what these conditions are? In this commentary article I will address some of the institutional and cultural conditions that need to be fulfilled in order for cost-effectiveness data to actually be used in priority setting decisions.

  7. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation. PMID:22317163

  8. Evaluation of proposed control room improvements through analysis of critical operator decisions. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making by nuclear power plant operators was studied in the context of four recent off-normal events in order to assess the potential impact of various control room improvements and innovations. Categories of improvements considered in the study included proposed changes in staff organization and training, controls and displays, and computerized support systems. The evaluation methodology involved judgments by a panel of experts regarding the benefits of proposed improvements for specific operator decisions. It also included the explication of a model of operator decision making and an analysis in terms of this model of how each improvement could help prevent or resolve decision-making errors

  9. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and participants felt uneasy about probabilities. The application of decision analysis in exercises has proven useful. Structuring the problem provided insight and many new issues could be analysed and discussed. Using a decision interview technique forces participants to think about the issue more carefully. Opinions seem to be more coherent and harmonised compared with earlier decision conferencing. Further meetings, however, need to be organised in order to deepen insight into the features of the decision-making process and to familiarise decision-makers with decision analysis techniques. More research is needed on how to implement decision conferencing or interviews in nuclear emergency management. (orig.)

  10. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and participants felt uneasy about probabilities. The application of decision analysis in exercises has proven useful. Structuring the problem provided insight and many new issues could be analysed and discussed. Using a decision interview technique forces participants to think about the issue more carefully. Opinions seem to be more coherent and harmonised compared with earlier decision conferencing. Further meetings, however, need to be organised in order to deepen insight into the features of the decision-making process and to familiarise decision-makers with decision analysis techniques. More research is needed on how to implement decision conferencing or interviews in nuclear emergency management. (orig.)

  11. Uso racional de medicamentos: uma abordagem econômica para tomada de decisões Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Marques Mota

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available O artigo aborda o uso racional de medicamentos (URM sob um ponto de vista da economia. O URM, para ser implementado, implica custos e envolve a apropriação de conhecimentos e mudanças de conduta de diversos agentes. A dificuldade na adoção da prática do URM pode estar relacionada a problemas de escassez, assimetria de informação, informação incompleta, incertezas nas decisões clínicas, externalidades, preço-tempo, incentivos para prescritores e dispensadores, preferências dos prescritores e utilidade marginal. Assim, cabe às autoridades sanitárias, entre outras entidades, regular, reduzir e controlar essas falhas que poderão introduzir ineficiências na assistência farmacêutica, bem como produzir riscos à vida humana.The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

  12. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  13. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    CERN Document Server

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  14. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems; Bioenergiasysteemien teknistaloudellinen analyysi. IEA Bioenergy Agreement Techno-economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  15. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  16. Examination of European Union economic cohesion: A cluster analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Mazurek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past years majority of EU members experienced the highest economic decline in their modern history, but impacts of the global financial crisis were not distributed homogeneously across the continent. The aim of the paper is to examine a cohesion of European Union (plus Norway and Iceland in terms of an economic development of its members from the 1st of January 2008 to the 31st of December 2012. For the study five economic indicators were selected: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, labour productivity and government debt. Annual data from Eurostat databases were averaged over the whole period and then used as an input for a cluster analysis. It was found that EU countries were divided into six different clusters. The most populated cluster with 14 countries covered Central and West Europe and reflected relative homogeneity of this part of Europe. Countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain shared their own cluster of the most affected countries by the recent crisis as well as the Baltics and the Balkans states in another cluster. On the other hand Slovakia and Poland, only two countries that escaped a recession, were classified in their own cluster of the most successful countries

  17. Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

  18. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly BENCHEVA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

  19. Decommissioning wind energy projects: An economic and political analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wind energy is the fastest-growing segment of new electrical power capacity in the United States, with the potential for significant growth in the future. To facilitate such growth, a number of concerns between developers and landowners must be resolved, including assurance of wind turbine decommissioning at the end of their useful lives. Oklahoma legislators enlisted the authors to develop an economically-sound proposal to ensure developers complete their decommissioning obligations. Economic analysis of turbine decommissioning is complicated by a lack of operational experience, as few U.S. projects have been decommissioned. This leads to a lack of data regarding decommissioning costs. Politically, the negotiation leading to the finally-enacted solution juxtaposed economic theory against political pragmatism, leading to a different but hopefully sound solution. This article will provide background for the decommissioning issue, chronicle the development of the decommissioning component of the Oklahoma Wind Energy Act, and frame issues that remain for policymakers in regulating wind power development. - Highlights: ? Wind energy is the fastest-growing component of U.S. power generation. ? Decommissioning wind projects is policy concern for wind development. ? Little public information on wind turbine decommissioning costs exists. ? Oklahoma’s solution attempts to account for both costs and risks. ? Additional research is needed to create a more precise pold to create a more precise policy solution.

  20. Burnup credit in nuclear waste transport: An economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US DOE is responsible for transporting nuclear spent fuel from commercial reactors to monitored retrievable storage (MRS) facilities and/or to repositories. Current plans call for approximately 110,000 metric tons uranium (MTU) to be transported over approximately 40 years beginning in 1998. Because of the large volume of spent fuel to be transported, new generations of spent fuel transportation casks are being planned. These casks will embody the latest technology and will be designated to accommodate the spent fuel in a way that maximizes the overall efficiency of the cask. In planning for the new generation of transport casks, the DOE is investigating the possibility of tailoring the cask design for the extent to which spent fuel has been used in the reactors, or, for spent fuel burnup. Granting design credit for burnup would allow one to fabricate casks with relatively larger capacities than would be possible otherwise. The remainder of the paper discusses the economic implications of using burnup credit in cask design, discusses the approach used in analyzing the economics of burnup credit, describes the results of the analysis, and offers some conclusions about the economic value of the burnup credit option

  1. Economic analysis of cloud-based desktop virtualization implementation at a hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoo Sooyoung

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cloud-based desktop virtualization infrastructure (VDI is known as providing simplified management of application and desktop, efficient management of physical resources, and rapid service deployment, as well as connection to the computer environment at anytime, anywhere with anydevice. However, the economic validity of investing in the adoption of the system at a hospital has not been established. Methods This study computed the actual investment cost of the hospital-wide VDI implementation at the 910-bed Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in Korea and the resulting effects (i.e., reductions in PC errors and difficulties, application and operating system update time, and account management time. Return on investment (ROI, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR indexes used for corporate investment decision-making were used for the economic analysis of VDI implementation. Results The results of five-year cost-benefit analysis given for 400 Virtual Machines (VMs; i.e., 1,100 users in the case of SNUBH showed that the break-even point was reached in the fourth year of the investment. At that point, the ROI was 122.6%, the NPV was approximately US$192,000, and the IRR showed an investment validity of 10.8%. From our sensitivity analysis to changing the number of VMs (in terms of number of users, the greater the number of adopted VMs was the more investable the system was. Conclusions This study confirms that the emerging VDI can have an economic impact on hospital information system (HIS operation and utilization in a tertiary hospital setting.

  2. Logit analysis of socio-economic factors influencing people to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acquah Henry D.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the socio-economic factors that influence people’s decision to become fishermen in the central region of Ghana. Using a well structured interview schedule, a random sample of 98 people from Elmina in the central region of Ghana was selected for the study. Results from the descriptive statistics analysis of respondents identified fishing as a family business, minimum skills requirement and ready market for fish demand as factors that motivated majority of the people into fishing. Lack of storage facilities, access to credit, lack of government assistance and unpredictable changes in weather conditions on sea were the main constraints to fishing activities. Results from the logistic regression model indicated that household size and access to credit were significant factors that positively influenced people’s decision to become fishermen. The regression analysis further revealed that engaging in other income generating activity and being educated significantly reduces the probability to start fishing business.

  3. 16 CFR 1000.28 - Directorate for Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...information on economic and environmental matters and on the economic, social and environmental effects of Commission...industries. It studies the costs of accidents and injuries...economic, societal, and environmental impact of product...

  4. THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ACTUAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile ROBU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Tourism sector. Under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises, sharp exchange rate fluctuations, increase terrorism acts in several region with tourism potential Tourism demand slowed significantly. Yet, despite the current difficulties, the Tourism sector remains a critical economic sector worldwide and one that provides significant potential for economic growth and development internationally. A growing national Tourism sector contributes to raises national income, employment, and can improve a country's balance of payments. The sector is thus an important driver of growth and prosperity and,  within developing countries, it can play a leading role in poverty reduction. Despite the overall importance of developing the Tourism sector, many obstacles at the national level continue to hinder its development. This analysis aims to serve two purposes. First, we intend to provide useful comparative information for making decisions related to business and tourism development. Second, and more importantly, we hope that the analysis provides an opportunity for the Tourism industry to highlight the obstacles to Tourism competitiveness.

  5. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Survey of Current Business

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis has available the Survey of Current Business. The publication provides a mixture of analytic articles and numerical tables on various subjects. It is highlighted by a monthly Business Situation section that discusses topics such as prices, personal income, consumption, exports and imports, and government spending. The periodical also presents selected regional, national, and international tables, including National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, among others. Online issues date back to January 1998.

  6. Nuclear power economics. Chapter 11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power station investment decisions (the simple economic comparison (for AGR and coal-fired plants); sensitivity; the generating system); social cost-benefit analysis (radioactive wastes; environmental impacts and population risks; proliferation, terrorism and civil liberties; R and D costs; other factors; applicability of social cost-benefit); fast reactor economics; accountancy; conclusions. (U.K.)

  7. A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decision-makers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even e since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was - 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable. (author)

  8. Law-economics Analysis for the Restriction of Intellectual

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-zhi NING

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available
    The restriction of Intellectual property rights, as an important principle and system in the Intellectual property law, has its own existence of the reasonable economic basis. This thesis begins with the definition of intellectual asset rights, reveals that the intellectual asset has the double properties of private products and public products, and demonstrates the rationality of moderate private right protection. And then it revises the economic senses in the intellectual property system using the method of economic analysis, and analyzes the important role which intrinsic balance mechanism and exterior restriction mechanism play, to guarantee information resource configured liquidly and carried on effectively.
    Key words: Law-economics, Restriction of intellectual property rights, Pareto criterion
    Résumé: En tant que le principe et l’institution importants du droit de propriété intellectuelle, la restriction du droit de propriété intellectuelle existe sur la base rationnelle de la science économique. Je commence dans cette thèse par la délimitation du droit de propriété intellectuelle afin de découvrir sa double caractéristique: produit privé et produit public, et d’argumenter la rationalité de le protéger mesurément comme le droit privé. Et ensuite, j’étudie la raison économique de l’institution du droit de propriété intellectuelle, au moyen d’analyse économique, et j’explique l’importance de son mécanisme équilibré à l’intérieur et son mécanisme restreint à l’extérieur pour assurer la distribution facile et la fonction effective des resources informatiques.
    Mots-Clés: droit-économie, restriction du droit de propriété intellectuelle, critère de PARETO

  9. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  10. Sensitivity analysis in discrete multiple criteria decision problems: on the siting of nuclear power plants

    OpenAIRE

    Rietveld, P.; Janssen, R.

    1989-01-01

    Inclusion of evaluation methods in decision support systems gives way to extensive sensitivity analysis. In this article new methods for sensitivityanalysis are developed and applied to the siting of nuclear power plants in the Netherlands.

  11. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability aspects in the decision making process on adaptation measures has been developed and is currently being tested in municipalities including central Gothenburg, and smaller municipalities in Sweden and Norway. The tool is a matrix based decision support tool (MDST) aiming for encoring discussion among experts and stakeholders. The first steps in the decision process include identification, inventory and assessment of the potential impacts of climate change such as landslides (or other events or actions). These steps are also included in general technical/physical risk and vulnerability analyses such as the risk analysis of the Göta älv valley. The MDST also includes further subsequent steps of the risk management process, and the full sequence of the MDST includes risk identification, risk specification, risk assessment, identification of measures, impact analysis of measures including an assessment of environmental, social and economical costs and benefits, a weight process and visualisation of the result. Here the MDST with some examples from the methodology for the Göta river valley analysis and the risk mitigation analysis from Sweden and Norway will be presented.

  12. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  13. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  14. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  15. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  16. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  17. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    OpenAIRE

    García-Alonso Carlos; Gibert Karina; Salvador-Carulla Luis

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its us...

  18. Ranking Economic History Journals : A Citation-Based Impact-Adjusted Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Weisdorf, Jacob Louis

    2009-01-01

    This study ranks - for the first time - 12 international academic journals that have economic history as their main topic. The ranking is based on data collected for the year 2007. Journals are ranked using standard citation analysis where we adjust for age, size and self-citation of journals. We also compare the leading economic history journals with the leading journals in economics in order to measure the influence on economics of economic history, and vice versa. With a few exceptions, ou...

  19. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more frequent replenishment with that of implementation cost. We determine that a business as usual scenario, where no adaptation is implemented, would lead to an average beach recession of 12.02 meters and a maximum beach recession of 33.23 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The best adaptation option modeled was a fixed replenishment of 5 meters every 20 years leading to 4 replenishment events with an average beach recession of 2.99 meters and a maximum beach recession of 15.02 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The presented simulations explicitly address the uncertainty of future impacts due to sea level rise and storm surge and show a range of options that could be considered by a local council to meet their policy objectives. The simulation runs provide managers the ability to consider the utility of various adaptation options and the timing and costs of implementation. Such information provides an evidence-based practice to decision-making and allows policy makers to transparently make decisions based on best estimates of modeled climate change.

  20. Contextual Analysis of the Decision To Adopt a Regional Satellite System: The Case of the Andean CONDOR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Leonardo; Mody, Bella

    Acknowledging the importance of communications in economic development, this paper discusses the rationale behind the decision of the Andean Pact nations of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela to develop a regional satellite communication system to be known as CONDOR. The application of contextual theorizing to the decision-making…

  1. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  2. When values conflict. Essays on environmental analysis, discourse, and decision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tribe, L.H.; Schelling, C.S.; Voss, J. (eds.)

    1976-01-01

    One of the most perplexing tasks that decision makers face is weighing conflicting values, and in particular doing so with adequate sensitivity to 'fragile' values such as esthetic or other intangible concerns. In this series of essays a physicist, a lawyer, a philosopher, an engineer, a sociologist and two economists address this problem in the environmental context, with special attention to the relationship between man and his natural surroundings. Each author has drawn upon his own expertise, experience and perceptions in order to clarify the conceptual as well as the institutional issues involved. The essays analyze how values have been dealt with in environmental decisions and suggest ways in which they might be handled with greater sensitivity. This volume may be looked upon as one step in remedying the 'failure of discourse' which is seen as a major factor in the difficulty our society experiences in dealing with value conflicts in policy areas.

  3. Analysis of decision procedures for a sequence of inventory periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Optimal test procedures for a sequence of inventory periods will be discussed. Starting with a game theoretical description of the conflict situation between the plant operator and the inspector, the objectives of the inspector as well as the general decision theoretical problem will be formulated. In the first part the objective of 'secure' detection will be emphasized which means that only at the end of the reference time a decision is taken by the inspector. In the second part the objective of 'timely' detection will be emphasized which will lead to sequential test procedures. At the end of the paper all procedures will be summarized, and in view of the multitude of procedures available at the moment some comments about future work will be given. (orig./HP)

  4. Situated analysis of team handball players' decisions: An exploratory study

    OpenAIRE

    Lenzen, Benoi?t; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship between planning and action, and (b) the perception-action coordination. We used qualitative methods that linked (a) video observation of six female ...

  5. Economic impact analysis of terrorism events: Recent methodological advances and findings

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon, Peter; Moore, James E.; Richardson, Harry W.

    2008-01-01

    National security is a basic responsibility of national governments, but it is also intangible. What can economic analysis contribute? Benefit-cost analysis has rarely been applied because of the ambiguous and commons nature of the benefits. Our group at the University of Southern California's Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) has worked to elaborate and apply economic impact analysis to describe the expected losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks. Our in...

  6. Analysis of environmental and economic aspects of international pellet supply chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehrig, Rita

    2014-01-17

    Biomass plays a key role to achieve the EU's 20-20-20 energy and climate targets. Because of rising European demand and limited domestic resources, the EU relies on worldwide imports. Given this framework, the present thesis explores the influences on wood pellet supply chains considering different environmental policies, price risks and the effect of torrefaction pretreatment. The examinations refer to three real case studies for pellet trade from Australia, Canada, and Russia to Europe. In the first investigation, the efficiency of co-firing imported wood pellets in terms of CO{sub 2} savings and related subsidy schemes is analysed. Scenarios show that co-firing biomass is efficient to contribute to the EU energy targets. Though, policy makers could use these instruments more effective when directing sourcing decision towards options with even less environmental impacts. The second analysis explores the influence of statistically derived price risks on total supply chain economics. It is shown that price risks can effect strong fluctuations in the short term, which seriously affect the profitability of individual trade routes. Securing the supply chain is mainly based on individual producer-buyer agreements, personal branch experiences and fast reactions on the subsidy system. Systematic evaluation of supply chains could contribute to a more reliable market and thus foster investment decisions. In the last investigation, the economic and environmental performance of potential torrefaction-based supply chains is assessed. As a result, torrefaction-based supply chains turn out to be a certain alternative to conventional ones. Though, still huge research efforts and industrial demonstration are required to make torrefied biomass a real alternative on the market.

  7. Analysis of environmental and economic aspects of international pellet supply chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biomass plays a key role to achieve the EU's 20-20-20 energy and climate targets. Because of rising European demand and limited domestic resources, the EU relies on worldwide imports. Given this framework, the present thesis explores the influences on wood pellet supply chains considering different environmental policies, price risks and the effect of torrefaction pretreatment. The examinations refer to three real case studies for pellet trade from Australia, Canada, and Russia to Europe. In the first investigation, the efficiency of co-firing imported wood pellets in terms of CO2 savings and related subsidy schemes is analysed. Scenarios show that co-firing biomass is efficient to contribute to the EU energy targets. Though, policy makers could use these instruments more effective when directing sourcing decision towards options with even less environmental impacts. The second analysis explores the influence of statistically derived price risks on total supply chain economics. It is shown that price risks can effect strong fluctuations in the short term, which seriously affect the profitability of individual trade routes. Securing the supply chain is mainly based on individual producer-buyer agreements, personal branch experiences and fast reactions on the subsidy system. Systematic evaluation of supply chains could contribute to a more reliable market and thus foster investment decisions. In the last investigation, the economic and environmental performance of potential torrefaction-based supply chains is assessed. As a result, torrefaction-based supply chains turn out to be a certain alternative to conventional ones. Though, still huge research efforts and industrial demonstration are required to make torrefied biomass a real alternative on the market.

  8. "Make or buy" decisions in the production of health care goods and services: new insights from institutional economics and organizational theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Preker, A. S.; Harding, A.; Travis, P.

    2000-01-01

    A central theme of recent health care reforms has been a redefinition of the roles of the state and private providers. With a view to helping governments to arrive at more rational "make or buy" decisions on health care goods and services, we propose a conceptual framework in which a combination of institutional economics and organizational theory is used to examine the core production activities in the health sector. Empirical evidence from actual production modalities is also taken into con...

  9. Economic issues involved in integrating genomic testing into clinical care: the case of genomic testing to guide decision-making about chemotherapy for breast cancer patients

    OpenAIRE

    Marino, Patricia; Siani, Carole; Bertucci, Franc?ois; Roche, Henri; Martin, Anne-laure; Viens, Patrice; Seror, Vale?rie

    2010-01-01

    Abstract The use of taxanes to treat node-positive (N+) breast cancer patients is associated with heterogeneous benefits as well as with morbidity and financial costs. This study aimed to assess the economic impact of using gene expression profiling to guide decision-making about chemotherapy, and to discuss the coverage/reimbursement issues involved. Retrospective data on 246 patients included in a randomised trial (PACS01) were analyzed. Tumours were genotyped using DNA microarra...

  10. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.Miranda Lakshmi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classification accuracy of CART is higher when compared to ID3 and C4.5. However the difference in classification accuracy between the decision tree algorithms is not considerably higher. The experimental results of decision tree indicate that student’s performance also influenced by qualitative factors.

  11. A decision-support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baker, R. H. A.; Benninga, J.; Bremmer, J.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Ilieva, Z.; Jarosik, V.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D. J.; Makowski, D.; Pergl, J.; Reynaud, P.; Robinet, C.; Soliman, T.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a decision-support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable methods to follow. The introduction to the DSS indicates the time and expertise that is needed, the data requirements and the situations when mapping the endangered areas is most useful. The DSS its...

  12. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time requirmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  13. An Economic Analysis of Hand Transplantation in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kevin C.; Oda, Takashi; Saddawi-Konefka, Daniel; Shauver, Melissa J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Hand transplantation has received international attention in recent years; however, the economic impact of this innovative treatment is uncertain. The aim of this study is to assess the utility and estimate the costs of hand transplantation and the use of hand prostheses for forearm amputations. Methods 100 medical students completed a time trade-off survey to assess the utilities of single and double hand transplantation and the use of hand prostheses. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated for each outcome to create decision trees. Cost data for medical care were estimated based on Medicare fee schedules using the Current Procedural Terminology code for forearm replantation. The cost of immunosuppressive therapy was estimated based on the wholesale price of drugs. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) was calculated from the differences in costs and utilities between transplantation and prosthesis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the results. Results For unilateral hand amputation, prosthetic use was favored over hand transplantation (30.00 QALYS vs. 28.81 QALYs; p = 0.03). Double hand transplantation was favored over the use of prostheses (26.73 QALYs vs. 25.20 QALYs; p = 0.01). The ICUR of double transplantation when compared with prostheses was $381,961/QALY, exceeding the traditionally accepted cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000/QALY. Conclusion Prosthetic adaption is the dominant strategy for unilateral hand amputation. For bilateral hand amputation, double hand transplantation exceeds the societally acceptable threshold for general adoption. Improvements in immunosuppressive strategies may change the ICUR for hand transplantation. PMID:19910847

  14. Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonen Mithat

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

  15. Economic viability analysis of carbon credits from sawmill residues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Padilha, Jesse Luis; Canto, Sergio Aruana Elarrat; Duarte, Andre Augusto Azevedo Montenegro; Nogueira, Manoel Fernandes Martins [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Inst. de Tecnologia (ITEC)]. E-mails: jessepadilha@hotmail.com; aruana@ufpa.br; amonte@ufpa.br; mfmn@ufpa.br

    2008-07-01

    Discussions on climate change began in Rio de Janeiro in the 1992 Conference on Poverty and the Environment, and since that time this problem has gained significant importance. A great advance in these discussions was made at the Kyoto Conference when Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) were devised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, such as Carbon Credits for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions. Brazil has an exceptionally fine position with respect to the Kyoto treaty since it is a naturally large biomass producer providing an option for gaining Carbon credits by substituting petroleum for biomass as a fuel for industries, such as the lumber industry. This study examines the economic viability of using bio-fuels in sawmills as a way to obtain CDM. Two approach are used here. First, the credits are obtained substituting diesel fuel for biomass and the second is without diesel fuel substitution. For these analyses, economic simulations were made with, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback. Furthermore, sensibility analysis for alternative scenario were performed. (author)

  16. Economic Analysis of Pyro-SFR Fuel Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, based on the material flow the economics of Pyro-SFR has been estimated. These are mainly two methodologies to perform nuclear fuel cycle cost study which is based on the material flow calculations. One is equilibrium model and the other is dynamic model. Equilibrium model focus on the batch study with the assumptions that the whole system is in a steady state and mass flow as well as the electricity production all through the fuel cycle is in equilibrium state, which calculates the electricity production within a certain period and associated material flow with reference to unit cost in order to obtain the cost of electricity. Dynamic model takes the time factor into consideration to simulate the actual cases. Compared with the dynamic analysis model, the outcome of equilibrium model is more theoretical comparisons, especially with regard to the large uncertainty of the development of the pyro-technology evaluated. In this study equilibrium model was built to calculate the material flow on a batch basis. With the unit cost being determined, the cost of each step of fuel cycle could be obtained, so does the FCC. Due to the unavoidable uncertainty with certain unit costs, evaluated cost range and uncertainty study are applied. SFR fuel cycle employing pyro processing is one promising fuel cycle option in the near future. Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered in the determination of new fuel cycle deployment

  17. Optimized top quark analysis with the decision tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present an optimized and physically motivated method for separating top quark signal events from background events at the Fermilab Tevatron. For the top quark signal t bar t?e/?+4 jets, we show how to reject all but 25% of the background in a data sample while retaining 83% of the signal, without introducing bias into the subsequent mass measurement. The technique used is the binary decision tree. Combining this highly efficient procedure for signal identification with a novel algorithm for top quark reconstruction, we propose a powerful new way to measure the top quark mass

  18. Select retrieval sequence and blending strategy decision analysis frame

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this document is to define the decisions that need to be made to select a single-shell tank (SST) and double-shell tank (DST) retrieval sequence and a waste blending strategy for high-level waste (HLW) and low-level waste (LLW) vitrification. The document establishes the framework necessary to compare alternative retrieval sequences and blending strategies on a uniform basis. Measures of success are established; these measures will indicate when a good enough solution has been identified

  19. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  20. Analysis and interaction of exergy, environmental and economic in multi-objective optimization of BTX process based on evolutionary algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper sustainability analysis (exergy, environmental and economic) and multi-objective optimization for an aromatic plant are provided and interactions between decision variables are discussed. Environmental evaluation shows that the cancer human toxicity and global warming are the most important environmental concerns and the weight of EIs (environmental impacts) are mainly due to process wastes. The optimizations results demonstrate parameters like reactor temperature have a wide range in the optimizations while some variables, such as extraction unit variables have the same value. Utility EI reduction occurred in economic and exergy optimizations rather than environmental optimization so if the environmental concerns of the plant are due to utility consumption, exergy and economic optimizations reduce EI and there is no need for an explicit environmental optimization. While whenever the environmental concerns correspond to process waste, process optimization should be done based on EI itself. Furthermore multi-objective optimizations are carried out and the objectives trade-offs are illustrated through Pareto curves in four scenarios. In the proposed green scenario 3.8% of plant's EI decreases while annual cost rises up to 2%. In the proposed economic scenario annual cost reduces by 3.6% however plant's EI deteriorates up to 13.7%. - Highlights: • The sustainability of a plant including exergy and environmental factors discussed • Life Cycle Assessment is applied to determine the environmental impacts • Reactor temperature has the most effect on each optimization • Exergy optimization deteriorates overall environmental performance of the plant • Economic and environmental friendly scenarios are proposed