Pooled individual patient data from five countries were used to derive a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care.

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, Marc; Minalu, Girma; Bösner, Stefan; Buntinx, Frank; Burnand, Bernard; Haasenritter, Jörg; Herzig, Lilli; Knottnerus, J André; Nilsson, Staffan; Renier, Walter; Sox, Carol; Sox, Harold; Donner-Banzhoff, Norbert

2017-01-01

To construct a clinical prediction rule for coronary artery disease (CAD) presenting with chest pain in primary care. Meta-Analysis using 3,099 patients from five studies. To identify candidate predictors, we used random forest trees, multiple imputation of missing values, and logistic regression within individual studies. To generate a prediction rule on the pooled data, we applied a regression model that took account of the differing standard data sets collected by the five studies. The most parsimonious rule included six equally weighted predictors: age ≥55 (males) or ≥65 (females) (+1); attending physician suspected a serious diagnosis (+1); history of CAD (+1); pain brought on by exertion (+1); pain feels like "pressure" (+1); pain reproducible by palpation (-1). CAD was considered absent if the prediction score is data sets based on electronic health records from diverse sites create opportunities for improving their internal and external validity. Our patient-level meta-analysis from five primary care sites should improve external validity. Our strategy for addressing site-to-site systematic variation in missing data should improve internal validity. Using principles derived from decision theory, we also discuss the problem of setting the cutoff prediction score for taking action. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuang Wu

Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

External validation of a clinical prediction rule to predict full recovery and ongoing moderate/severe disability following acute whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritchie, Carrie; Hendrikz, Joan; Jull, Gwendolen; Elliott, James; Sterling, Michele

2015-04-01

Retrospective secondary analysis of data. To investigate the external validity of the whiplash clinical prediction rule (CPR). We recently derived a whiplash CPR to consolidate previously established prognostic factors for poor recovery from a whiplash injury and predicted 2 recovery pathways. Prognostic factors for full recovery were being less than 35 years of age and having an initial Neck Disability Index (NDI) score of 32% or less. Prognostic factors for ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were being 35 years of age or older, having an initial NDI score of 40% or more, and the presence of hyperarousal symptoms. Validation is required to confirm the reproducibility and accuracy of this CPR. Clinician feedback on the usefulness of the CPR is also important to gauge acceptability. A secondary analysis of data from 101 individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder who had previously participated in either a randomized controlled clinical trial or prospective cohort study was performed using accuracy statistics. Full recovery was defined as NDI score at 6 months of 10% or less, and ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability were defined as an NDI score at 6 months of 30% or greater. In addition, a small sample of physical therapists completed an anonymous survey on the clinical acceptability and usability of the tool. Results The positive predictive value of ongoing moderate/severe pain and disability was 90.9% in the validation cohort, and the positive predictive value of full recovery was 80.0%. Surveyed physical therapists reported that the whiplash CPR was simple, understandable, would be easy to use, and was an acceptable prognostic tool. External validation of the whiplash CPR confirmed the reproducibility and accuracy of this dual-pathway tool for individuals with acute whiplash-associated disorder. Further research is needed to assess prospective validation, the impact of inclusion on practice, and to examine the efficacy of linking treatment

Deriving a clinical prediction rule to target sexual healthcare to women attending British General Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Edelman, N L; Cassell, J A; Mercer, C H; Bremner, S A; Jones, C I; Gersten, A; deVisser, R O

2018-07-01

Some women attending General Practices (GPs) are at higher risk of unintended pregnancy (RUIP) and sexually transmitted infections (STI) than others. A clinical prediction rule (CPR) may help target resources using psychosocial questions as an acceptable, effective means of assessment. The aim was to derive a CPR that discriminates women who would benefit from sexual health discussion and intervention. Participants were recruited to a cross-sectional survey from six GPs in a city in South-East England in 2016. On arrival, female patients aged 16-44 years were invited to complete a questionnaire that addressed psychosocial factors, and the following self-reported outcomes: 2+ sexual partners in the last year (2PP) and RUIP. For each sexual risk, psychosocial questions were retained from logistic regression modelling which best discriminated women at risk using the C-statistic. Sensitivity and specificity were established in consultation with GP staff. The final sample comprised N = 1238 women. 2PP was predicted by 11 questions including age, binge-drinking weekly, ever having a partner who insulted you often, current smoking, and not cohabiting (C-statistic = 0.83, sensitivity = 73% and specificity = 77%). RUIP was predicted by 5 questions including sexual debut years, and emergency contraception use in the last 6 months (C-statistic = 0.70, sensitivity = 69% and specificity = 57%). 2PP was better discriminated than RUIP but neither to a clinically-useful degree. The finding that different psychosocial factors predicted each outcome has implications for prevention strategies. Further research should investigate causal links between psychosocial factors and sexual risk. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Different minimally important clinical difference (MCID) scores lead to different clinical prediction rules for the Oswestry disability index for the same sample of patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwind, Julie; Learman, Kenneth; O'Halloran, Bryan; Showalter, Christopher; Cook, Chad

2013-05-01

Minimal clinically important difference (MCID) scores for outcome measures are frequently used evidence-based guides to gage meaningful changes. There are numerous outcome instruments used for analyzing pain, disability, and dysfunction of the low back; perhaps the most common of these is the Oswestry disability index (ODI). A single agreed-upon MCID score for the ODI has yet to be established. What is also unknown is whether selected baseline variables will be universal predictors regardless of the MCID used for a particular outcome measure. To explore the relationship between predictive models and the MCID cutpoint on the ODI. Data were collected from 16 outpatient physical therapy clinics in 10 states. Secondary database analysis using backward stepwise deletion logistic regression of data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to create prognostic clinical prediction rules (CPR). One hundred and forty-nine patients with low back pain (LBP) were enrolled in the RCT. All were treated with manual therapy, with a majority also receiving spine-strengthening exercises. The resultant predictive models were dependent upon the MCID used and baseline sample characteristics. All CPR were statistically significant (P < 001). All six MCID cutpoints used resulted in completely different significant predictor variables with no predictor significant across all models. The primary limitations include sub-optimal sample size and study design. There is extreme variability among predictive models created using different MCIDs on the ODI within the same patient population. Our findings highlight the instability of predictive modeling, as these models are significantly affected by population baseline characteristics along with the MCID used. Clinicians must be aware of the fragility of CPR prior to applying each in clinical practice.

Rationale, design, and implementation protocol of an electronic health record integrated clinical prediction rule (iCPR randomized trial in primary care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wisnivesky Juan

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical prediction rules (CPRs represent well-validated but underutilized evidence-based medicine tools at the point-of-care. To date, an inability to integrate these rules into an electronic health record (EHR has been a major limitation and we are not aware of a study demonstrating the use of CPR's in an ambulatory EHR setting. The integrated clinical prediction rule (iCPR trial integrates two CPR's in an EHR and assesses both the usability and the effect on evidence-based practice in the primary care setting. Methods A multi-disciplinary design team was assembled to develop a prototype iCPR for validated streptococcal pharyngitis and bacterial pneumonia CPRs. The iCPR tool was built as an active Clinical Decision Support (CDS tool that can be triggered by user action during typical workflow. Using the EHR CDS toolkit, the iCPR risk score calculator was linked to tailored ordered sets, documentation, and patient instructions. The team subsequently conducted two levels of 'real world' usability testing with eight providers per group. Usability data were used to refine and create a production tool. Participating primary care providers (n = 149 were randomized and intervention providers were trained in the use of the new iCPR tool. Rates of iCPR tool triggering in the intervention and control (simulated groups are monitored and subsequent use of the various components of the iCPR tool among intervention encounters is also tracked. The primary outcome is the difference in antibiotic prescribing rates (strep and pneumonia iCPR's encounters and chest x-rays (pneumonia iCPR only between intervention and control providers. Discussion Using iterative usability testing and development paired with provider training, the iCPR CDS tool leverages user-centered design principles to overcome pervasive underutilization of EBM and support evidence-based practice at the point-of-care. The ongoing trial will determine if this collaborative

A clinical return-to-work rule for patients with back pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Dionne, Clermont E; Bourbonnais, Renée; Frémont, Pierre; Rossignol, Michel; Stock, Susan R; Larocque, Isabelle

2005-06-07

Tools for early identification of workers with back pain who are at high risk of adverse occupational outcome would help concentrate clinical attention on the patients who need it most, while helping reduce unnecessary interventions (and costs) among the others. This study was conducted to develop and validate clinical rules to predict the 2-year work disability status of people consulting for nonspecific back pain in primary care settings. This was a 2-year prospective cohort study conducted in 7 primary care settings in the Quebec City area. The study enrolled 1007 workers (participation, 68.4% of potential participants expected to be eligible) aged 18-64 years who consulted for nonspecific back pain associated with at least 1 day's absence from work. The majority (86%) completed 5 telephone interviews documenting a large array of variables. Clinical information was abstracted from the medical files. The outcome measure was "return to work in good health" at 2 years, a variable that combined patients' occupational status, functional limitations and recurrences of work absence. Predictive models of 2-year outcome were developed with a recursive partitioning approach on a 40% random sample of our study subjects, then validated on the rest. The best predictive model included 7 baseline variables (patient's recovery expectations, radiating pain, previous back surgery, pain intensity, frequent change of position because of back pain, irritability and bad temper, and difficulty sleeping) and was particularly efficient at identifying patients with no adverse occupational outcome (negative predictive value 78%- 94%). A clinical prediction rule accurately identified a large proportion of workers with back pain consulting in a primary care setting who were at a low risk of an adverse occupational outcome.

Four hundred or more participants needed for stable contingency table estimates of clinical prediction rule performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kent, Peter; Boyle, Eleanor; Keating, Jennifer L

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To quantify variability in the results of statistical analyses based on contingency tables and discuss the implications for the choice of sample size for studies that derive clinical prediction rules. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: An analysis of three pre-existing sets of large cohort data......, odds ratios and risk/prevalence ratios, for each sample size was calculated. RESULTS: There were very wide, and statistically significant, differences in estimates derived from contingency tables from the same dataset when calculated in sample sizes below 400 people, and typically this variability...... stabilized in samples of 400 to 600 people. Although estimates of prevalence also varied significantly in samples below 600 people, that relationship only explains a small component of the variability in these statistical parameters. CONCLUSION: To reduce sample-specific variability, contingency tables...

A Multistep Maturity Model for the Implementation of Electronic and Computable Diagnostic Clinical Prediction Rules (eCPRs).

Science.gov (United States)

Corrigan, Derek; McDonnell, Ronan; Zarabzadeh, Atieh; Fahey, Tom

2015-01-01

The use of Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs) has been advocated as one way of implementing actionable evidence-based rules in clinical practice. The current highly manual nature of deriving CPRs makes them difficult to use and maintain. Addressing the known limitations of CPRs requires implementing more flexible and dynamic models of CPR development. We describe the application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to provide a platform for the derivation and dissemination of CPRs derived through analysis and continual learning from electronic patient data. We propose a multistep maturity model for constructing electronic and computable CPRs (eCPRs). The model has six levels - from the lowest level of CPR maturity (literaturebased CPRs) to a fully electronic and computable service-oriented model of CPRs that are sensitive to specific demographic patient populations. We describe examples of implementations of the core model components - focusing on CPR representation, interoperability, electronic dissemination, CPR learning, and user interface requirements. The traditional focus on derivation and narrow validation of CPRs has severely limited their wider acceptance. The evolution and maturity model described here outlines a progression toward eCPRs consistent with the vision of a learning health system (LHS) - using central repositories of CPR knowledge, accessible open standards, and generalizable models to avoid repetition of previous work. This is useful for developing more ambitious strategies to address limitations of the traditional CPR development life cycle. The model described here is a starting point for promoting discussion about what a more dynamic CPR development process should look like.

Feasibility of automatic evaluation of clinical rules in general practice.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Opondo, D.; Visscher, S.; Eslami, S.; Medlock, S.; Verheij, R.; Korevaar, J.C.; Abu-Hanna, A.

2017-01-01

Purpose: To assess the extent to which clinical rules (CRs) can be implemented for automatic evaluationof quality of care in general practice.Methods: We assessed 81 clinical rules (CRs) adapted from a subset of Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders(ACOVE) clinical rules, against Dutch College of

Appropriateness guidelines and predictive rules to select patients for upper endoscopy: a nationwide multicenter study.

Science.gov (United States)

Buri, Luigi; Hassan, Cesare; Bersani, Gianluca; Anti, Marcello; Bianco, Maria Antonietta; Cipolletta, Livio; Di Giulio, Emilio; Di Matteo, Giovanni; Familiari, Luigi; Ficano, Leonardo; Loriga, Pietro; Morini, Sergio; Pietropaolo, Vincenzo; Zambelli, Alessandro; Grossi, Enzo; Intraligi, Marco; Buscema, Massimo

2010-06-01

Selecting patients appropriately for upper endoscopy (EGD) is crucial for efficient use of endoscopy. The objective of this study was to compare different clinical strategies and statistical methods to select patients for EGD, namely appropriateness guidelines, age and/or alarm features, and multivariate and artificial neural network (ANN) models. A nationwide, multicenter, prospective study was undertaken in which consecutive patients referred for EGD during a 1-month period were enrolled. Before EGD, the endoscopist assessed referral appropriateness according to the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines, also collecting clinical and demographic variables. Outcomes of the study were detection of relevant findings and new diagnosis of malignancy at EGD. The accuracy of the following clinical strategies and predictive rules was compared: (i) ASGE appropriateness guidelines (indicated vs. not indicated), (ii) simplified rule (>or=45 years or alarm features vs. <45 years without alarm features), (iii) logistic regression model, and (iv) ANN models. A total of 8,252 patients were enrolled in 57 centers. Overall, 3,803 (46%) relevant findings and 132 (1.6%) new malignancies were detected. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the simplified rule were similar to that of the ASGE guidelines for both relevant findings (82%/26%/0.55 vs. 88%/27%/0.52) and cancer (97%/22%/0.58 vs. 98%/20%/0.58). Both logistic regression and ANN models seemed to be substantially more accurate in predicting new cases of malignancy, with an AUC of 0.82 and 0.87, respectively. A simple predictive rule based on age and alarm features is similarly effective to the more complex ASGE guidelines in selecting patients for EGD. Regression and ANN models may be useful in identifying a relatively small subgroup of patients at higher risk of cancer.

Rule Mining Techniques to Predict Prokaryotic Metabolic Pathways

KAUST Repository

Saidi, Rabie

2017-08-28

It is becoming more evident that computational methods are needed for the identification and the mapping of pathways in new genomes. We introduce an automatic annotation system (ARBA4Path Association Rule-Based Annotator for Pathways) that utilizes rule mining techniques to predict metabolic pathways across wide range of prokaryotes. It was demonstrated that specific combinations of protein domains (recorded in our rules) strongly determine pathways in which proteins are involved and thus provide information that let us very accurately assign pathway membership (with precision of 0.999 and recall of 0.966) to proteins of a given prokaryotic taxon. Our system can be used to enhance the quality of automatically generated annotations as well as annotating proteins with unknown function. The prediction models are represented in the form of human-readable rules, and they can be used effectively to add absent pathway information to many proteins in UniProtKB/TrEMBL database.

Rule Mining Techniques to Predict Prokaryotic Metabolic Pathways

KAUST Repository

Saidi, Rabie; Boudellioua, Imene; Martin, Maria J.; Solovyev, Victor

2017-01-01

It is becoming more evident that computational methods are needed for the identification and the mapping of pathways in new genomes. We introduce an automatic annotation system (ARBA4Path Association Rule-Based Annotator for Pathways) that utilizes rule mining techniques to predict metabolic pathways across wide range of prokaryotes. It was demonstrated that specific combinations of protein domains (recorded in our rules) strongly determine pathways in which proteins are involved and thus provide information that let us very accurately assign pathway membership (with precision of 0.999 and recall of 0.966) to proteins of a given prokaryotic taxon. Our system can be used to enhance the quality of automatically generated annotations as well as annotating proteins with unknown function. The prediction models are represented in the form of human-readable rules, and they can be used effectively to add absent pathway information to many proteins in UniProtKB/TrEMBL database.

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

Rule base system in developing groundwater pollution expert system: predicting model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mongkon Ta-oun; Mohamed Daud; Mohd Zohadie Bardaie; Shamshuddin Jusop

2000-01-01

New techniques are now available for use in the protection of the environment. One of these techniques is the use of expert system for prediction groundwater pollution potential. Groundwater Pollution Expert system (GWPES) rules are a collection of principles and procedures used to know the comprehension of groundwater pollution prediction. The rules of groundwater pollution expert system in the form of questions, choice, radio-box, slide rule, button or frame are translated in to IF-THEN rule. The rules including of variables, types, domains and descriptions were used by the function of wxCLIPS (C Language Integrate Production System) expert system shell. (author)

A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Spiegelhalter, D J; Freedman, L S

1986-01-01

The 'textbook' approach to determining sample size in a clinical trial has some fundamental weaknesses which we discuss. We describe a new predictive method which takes account of prior clinical opinion about the treatment difference. The method adopts the point of clinical equivalence (determined by interviewing the clinical participants) as the null hypothesis. Decision rules at the end of the study are based on whether the interval estimate of the treatment difference (classical or Bayesian) includes the null hypothesis. The prior distribution is used to predict the probabilities of making the decisions to use one or other treatment or to reserve final judgement. It is recommended that sample size be chosen to control the predicted probability of the last of these decisions. An example is given from a multi-centre trial of superficial bladder cancer.

A Bayesian Scoring Technique for Mining Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules

OpenAIRE

Batal, Iyad; Cooper, Gregory; Hauskrecht, Milos

2012-01-01

Rule mining is an important class of data mining methods for discovering interesting patterns in data. The success of a rule mining method heavily depends on the evaluation function that is used to assess the quality of the rules. In this work, we propose a new rule evaluation score - the Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules (PNSR) score. This score relies on Bayesian inference to evaluate the quality of the rules and considers the structure of the rules to filter out spurious rules. We present ...

Amsterdam wrist rules: A clinical decision aid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bentohami Abdelali

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute trauma of the wrist is one of the most frequent reasons for visiting the Emergency Department. These patients are routinely referred for radiological examination. Most X-rays however, do not reveal any fractures. A clinical decision rule determining the need for X-rays in patients with acute wrist trauma may help to percolate and select patients with fractures. Methods/Design This study will be a multi-center observational diagnostic study in which the data will be collected cross-sectionally. The study population will consist of all consecutive adult patients (≥18 years presenting with acute wrist trauma at the Emergency Department in the participating hospitals. This research comprises two components: one study will be conducted to determine which clinical parameters are predictive for the presence of a distal radius fracture in adult patients presenting to the Emergency Department following acute wrist trauma. These clinical parameters are defined by trauma-mechanism, physical examination, and functional testing. This data will be collected in two of the three participating hospitals and will be assessed by using logistic regression modelling to estimate the regression coefficients after which a reduced model will be created by means of a log likelihood ratio test. The accuracy of the model will be estimated by a goodness of fit test and an ROC curve. The final model will be validated internally through bootstrapping and by shrinking it, an adjusted model will be generated. In the second component of this study, the developed prediction model will be validated in a new dataset consisting of a population of patients from the third hospital. If necessary, the model will be calibrated using the data from the validation study. Discussion Wrist trauma is frequently encountered at the Emergency Department. However, to this date, no decision rule regarding this type of trauma has been created. Ideally, radiographs are

A Bayesian Scoring Technique for Mining Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Batal, Iyad; Cooper, Gregory; Hauskrecht, Milos

Rule mining is an important class of data mining methods for discovering interesting patterns in data. The success of a rule mining method heavily depends on the evaluation function that is used to assess the quality of the rules. In this work, we propose a new rule evaluation score - the Predictive and Non-Spurious Rules (PNSR) score. This score relies on Bayesian inference to evaluate the quality of the rules and considers the structure of the rules to filter out spurious rules. We present an efficient algorithm for finding rules with high PNSR scores. The experiments demonstrate that our method is able to cover and explain the data with a much smaller rule set than existing methods.

Injury and death in clinical trials and compensation: Rule 122 DAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ravindra B Ghooi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Three amendments to the drugs and cosmetics rules were published in quick succession in 2013. These addressed the issues of compensation of injury and death in clinical trials in addition to the role and registration of Ethics Committees. Of the three, the first and the third make an impact on the clinical research activities in India. The second amendment has codified the conduct of clinical trials, putting together rules, which appeared in different sections of Schedule Y. The first amendment deals with the compensation for injuries and deaths taking place during clinical trials while the third deals with registration of Ethics Committees. Despite the long delay in the issue of compensation rules, there appears significant room for improvement. The most problematic are conditions of injury and death in which compensation has to be paid. When compared with other countries, the Indian rules seem unduly harsh on sponsors and are at significant variance with those in UK. The rules are very generous toward subjects and compensation is likely to become an alternative to insurance in terminally ill subjects. The implementation of these rules will make clinical trials in India more expensive and hurt the industry that is already struggling through other handicaps. There is an urgent need to make the the environment more industry friendly to attract more clinical work.

Predicting occupational asthma and rhinitis in bakery workers referred for clinical evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonaid, Badri Sadat; Rooyackers, Jos; Stigter, Erik; Portengen, Lützen; Krop, Esmeralda; Heederik, Dick

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Occupational allergic diseases are a major problem in some workplaces like in the baking industry. Diagnostic rules have been used in surveillance but not yet in the occupational respiratory clinic. OBJECTIVE: To develop diagnostic models predicting baker's asthma and rhinitis among

Predictability of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Kung, James J.

2009-01-01

Using the Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index from the first trading day in 1975 to the last trading day in 2007, we investigate the predictability of two popular technical rules (variable-length moving average and trading range breakout) in the Taiwan stock market and assess its bearing on market efficiency. Our results show that, for the two rules, returns from buy signals are generally higher than those from sell signals. In addition, they exhibit considerable predictive power over 1975-1...

Effect of mixing rule boundary conditions on high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, Min-Kang; Lin, Shiang-Tai

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Prediction of LLE from the combined use of EOS and liquid model are examined. ► The mixing rule used affects the predicted pressure dependence of LLE. ► MHV1 mixing rule predicts decent LLE at low pressures. ► WS mixing rule predicts more accurate excess volume and LLE at high pressures. ► The hybrid of MHV1 and WS mixing rule gives overall the best predictions. - Abstract: We examine the prediction of high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium (LLE) from the Peng–Robinson equation with three excess Gibbs free energy (G ex )-based mixing rules (MR): the first order modified Huron–Vidal (MHV1), the Wong–Sandler (WS), and a hybrid of these two (referred to as G ex B 2 ). These mixing rules differ by the boundary conditions used for determination of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters a and b in the PR EOS. The condition of matching the excess Gibbs free energy from the EOS at zero pressure to that from the G ex model, used in MHV1 and G ex B 2 MR, leads to a similar miscibility gap from PR EOS and the G ex model used. On the other hand, the condition of matching excess Helmholtz energy from the EOS at infinite pressure to that from the G ex model, used in the WS MR, shows remarkable deviations. The condition of quadratic composition dependence in the second virial coefficient (B 2 ), used in WS and G ex B 2 MR, allows for both positive and negative values in the molar excess volume. Depending on the mixture, either the increase or decrease of the miscibility gap with pressure can be observed when the WS or the G ex B 2 MR is used. The condition of linear combination of molecular sizes of each component used in the MHV1 MR, however, often leads to small, positive molar excess volumes. As a consequence, the predicted LLE from using the MHV1 MR are insensitive to pressure. Therefore, we find that the G ex B 2 mixing rule provides the best predictive power for the LLE over a wide range of temperature and pressure.

Prediction of high-grade vesicoureteral reflux after pediatric urinary tract infection: external validation study of procalcitonin-based decision rule.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandrine Leroy

Full Text Available Predicting vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR ≥3 at the time of the first urinary tract infection (UTI would make it possible to restrict cystography to high-risk children. We previously derived the following clinical decision rule for that purpose: cystography should be performed in cases with ureteral dilation and a serum procalcitonin level ≥0.17 ng/mL, or without ureteral dilatation when the serum procalcitonin level ≥0.63 ng/mL. The rule yielded a 86% sensitivity with a 46% specificity. We aimed to test its reproducibility.A secondary analysis of prospective series of children with a first UTI. The rule was applied, and predictive ability was calculated.The study included 413 patients (157 boys, VUR ≥3 in 11% from eight centers in five countries. The rule offered a 46% specificity (95% CI, 41-52, not different from the one in the derivation study. However, the sensitivity significantly decreased to 64% (95%CI, 50-76, leading to a difference of 20% (95%CI, 17-36. In all, 16 (34% patients among the 47 with VUR ≥3 were misdiagnosed by the rule. This lack of reproducibility might result primarily from a difference between derivation and validation populations regarding inflammatory parameters (CRP, PCT; the validation set samples may have been collected earlier than for the derivation one.The rule built to predict VUR ≥3 had a stable specificity (ie. 46%, but a decreased sensitivity (ie. 64% because of the time variability of PCT measurement. Some refinement may be warranted.

Implications of Derived Rule Following of Roulette Gambling for Clinical Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Alyssa N; Grant, Tara

2015-05-01

Problem gambling is a global concern, and behavior analytic attention has increasingly focused on reasons for why problem gambling occurs and conditions under which it is maintained. However, limited knowledge currently exists on the process to which self-generated rules maintain gambling behaviors. Therefore, the current study assessed six recreational gamblers on a roulette game before and after discrimination training to establish a self-rule to wager on red or black. Following discrimination training, all six participants altered their response allocation among red or black and consistently responded according to the newly derived self-rule. Results maintained during 1-week follow-up sessions across all participants. Implications for clinical application of self-awareness and self-generated rule following are discussed. Implications for practice • Demonstration of how stimuli such as color can alter gambling behavior • Procedures to assist clients with changing self-rules about gambling behavior • Using self-generated rule formulation for more contextually appropriate target behaviors • Highlights how self-generated rules can be altered to change clinical target behaviors.

Age-Adjusted D-Dimer in the Prediction of Pulmonary Embolism: Does a Normal Age-Adjusted D-Dimer Rule Out PE?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacob Ortiz

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment for pulmonary embolism (PE currently relies on physician judgment, clinical decision rules (CDR, and D-dimer testing. There is still controversy regarding the role of D-dimer testing in low or intermediate risk patients. The objective of the study was to define the role of clinical decision rules and D-dimer testing in patients suspected of having a PE. Records of 894 patients referred for computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA at a University medical center were analyzed. The clinical decision rules overall had an ROC of approximately 0.70, while signs of DVT had the highest ROC (0.80. A low probability CDR coupled with a negative age-adjusted D-dimer largely excluded PE. The negative predictive value (NPV of an intermediate CDR was 86–89%, while the addition of a negative D-dimer resulted in NPVs of 94%. Thus, in patients suspected of having a PE, a low or intermediate CDR does not exclude PE; however, in patients with an intermediate CDR, a normal age-adjusted D-dimer increases the NPV.

Integrating reasoning and clinical archetypes using OWL ontologies and SWRL rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Lezcano, Leonardo; Sicilia, Miguel-Angel; Rodríguez-Solano, Carlos

2011-04-01

Semantic interoperability is essential to facilitate the computerized support for alerts, workflow management and evidence-based healthcare across heterogeneous electronic health record (EHR) systems. Clinical archetypes, which are formal definitions of specific clinical concepts defined as specializations of a generic reference (information) model, provide a mechanism to express data structures in a shared and interoperable way. However, currently available archetype languages do not provide direct support for mapping to formal ontologies and then exploiting reasoning on clinical knowledge, which are key ingredients of full semantic interoperability, as stated in the SemanticHEALTH report [1]. This paper reports on an approach to translate definitions expressed in the openEHR Archetype Definition Language (ADL) to a formal representation expressed using the Ontology Web Language (OWL). The formal representations are then integrated with rules expressed with Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL) expressions, providing an approach to apply the SWRL rules to concrete instances of clinical data. Sharing the knowledge expressed in the form of rules is consistent with the philosophy of open sharing, encouraged by archetypes. Our approach also allows the reuse of formal knowledge, expressed through ontologies, and extends reuse to propositions of declarative knowledge, such as those encoded in clinical guidelines. This paper describes the ADL-to-OWL translation approach, describes the techniques to map archetypes to formal ontologies, and demonstrates how rules can be applied to the resulting representation. We provide examples taken from a patient safety alerting system to illustrate our approach. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design of a Fuzzy Rule Base Expert System to Predict and Classify ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The main objective of design of a rule base expert system using fuzzy logic approach is to predict and forecast the risk level of cardiac patients to avoid sudden death. In this proposed system, uncertainty is captured using rule base and classification using fuzzy c-means clustering is discussed to overcome the risk level, ...

A rule-based backchannel prediction model using pitch and pause information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Truong, Khiet Phuong; Poppe, Ronald Walter; Heylen, Dirk K.J.

We manually designed rules for a backchannel (BC) prediction model based on pitch and pause information. In short, the model predicts a BC when there is a pause of a certain length that is preceded by a falling or rising pitch. This model was validated against the Dutch IFADV Corpus in a

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Rules-Based Approaches for Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Profiles in Gram-negative Bacilli from Whole Genome Sequence Data.

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Pesesky, Mitchell W; Hussain, Tahir; Wallace, Meghan; Patel, Sanket; Andleeb, Saadia; Burnham, Carey-Ann D; Dantas, Gautam

2016-01-01

The time-to-result for culture-based microorganism recovery and phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing necessitates initial use of empiric (frequently broad-spectrum) antimicrobial therapy. If the empiric therapy is not optimal, this can lead to adverse patient outcomes and contribute to increasing antibiotic resistance in pathogens. New, more rapid technologies are emerging to meet this need. Many of these are based on identifying resistance genes, rather than directly assaying resistance phenotypes, and thus require interpretation to translate the genotype into treatment recommendations. These interpretations, like other parts of clinical diagnostic workflows, are likely to be increasingly automated in the future. We set out to evaluate the two major approaches that could be amenable to automation pipelines: rules-based methods and machine learning methods. The rules-based algorithm makes predictions based upon current, curated knowledge of Enterobacteriaceae resistance genes. The machine-learning algorithm predicts resistance and susceptibility based on a model built from a training set of variably resistant isolates. As our test set, we used whole genome sequence data from 78 clinical Enterobacteriaceae isolates, previously identified to represent a variety of phenotypes, from fully-susceptible to pan-resistant strains for the antibiotics tested. We tested three antibiotic resistance determinant databases for their utility in identifying the complete resistome for each isolate. The predictions of the rules-based and machine learning algorithms for these isolates were compared to results of phenotype-based diagnostics. The rules based and machine-learning predictions achieved agreement with standard-of-care phenotypic diagnostics of 89.0 and 90.3%, respectively, across twelve antibiotic agents from six major antibiotic classes. Several sources of disagreement between the algorithms were identified. Novel variants of known resistance factors and

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Rules-Based Approaches for Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Profiles in Gram-negative Bacilli from Whole Genome Sequence Data

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Mitchell Pesesky

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The time-to-result for culture-based microorganism recovery and phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility testing necessitate initial use of empiric (frequently broad-spectrum antimicrobial therapy. If the empiric therapy is not optimal, this can lead to adverse patient outcomes and contribute to increasing antibiotic resistance in pathogens. New, more rapid technologies are emerging to meet this need. Many of these are based on identifying resistance genes, rather than directly assaying resistance phenotypes, and thus require interpretation to translate the genotype into treatment recommendations. These interpretations, like other parts of clinical diagnostic workflows, are likely to be increasingly automated in the future. We set out to evaluate the two major approaches that could be amenable to automation pipelines: rules-based methods and machine learning methods. The rules-based algorithm makes predictions based upon current, curated knowledge of Enterobacteriaceae resistance genes. The machine-learning algorithm predicts resistance and susceptibility based on a model built from a training set of variably resistant isolates. As our test set, we used whole genome sequence data from 78 clinical Enterobacteriaceae isolates, previously identified to represent a variety of phenotypes, from fully-susceptible to pan-resistant strains for the antibiotics tested. We tested three antibiotic resistance determinant databases for their utility in identifying the complete resistome for each isolate. The predictions of the rules-based and machine learning algorithms for these isolates were compared to results of phenotype-based diagnostics. The rules based and machine-learning predictions achieved agreement with standard-of-care phenotypic diagnostics of 89.0% and 90.3%, respectively, across twelve antibiotic agents from six major antibiotic classes. Several sources of disagreement between the algorithms were identified. Novel variants of known resistance

Performance of thirteen clinical rules to distinguish bacterial and presumed viral meningitis in Vietnamese children.

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Nguyen Tien Huy

Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Successful outcomes from bacterial meningitis require rapid antibiotic treatment; however, unnecessary treatment of viral meningitis may lead to increased toxicities and expense. Thus, improved diagnostics are required to maximize treatment and minimize side effects and cost. Thirteen clinical decision rules have been reported to identify bacterial from viral meningitis. However, few rules have been tested and compared in a single study, while several rules are yet to be tested by independent researchers or in pediatric populations. Thus, simultaneous test and comparison of these rules are required to enable clinicians to select an optimal diagnostic rule for bacterial meningitis in settings and populations similar to ours. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at the Infectious Department of Pediatric Hospital Number 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The performance of the clinical rules was evaluated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC using the method of DeLong and McNemar test for specificity comparison. RESULTS: Our study included 129 patients, of whom 80 had bacterial meningitis and 49 had presumed viral meningitis. Spanos's rule had the highest AUC at 0.938 but was not significantly greater than other rules. No rule provided 100% sensitivity with a specificity higher than 50%. Based on our calculation of theoretical sensitivity and specificity, we suggest that a perfect rule requires at least four independent variables that posses both sensitivity and specificity higher than 85-90%. CONCLUSIONS: No clinical decision rules provided an acceptable specificity (>50% with 100% sensitivity when applying our data set in children. More studies in Vietnam and developing countries are required to develop and/or validate clinical rules and more very good biomarkers are required to develop such a perfect rule.

Predictions for the Dirac C P -violating phase from sum rules

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Delgadillo, Luis A.; Everett, Lisa L.; Ramos, Raymundo; Stuart, Alexander J.

2018-05-01

We explore the implications of recent results relating the Dirac C P -violating phase to predicted and measured leptonic mixing angles within a standard set of theoretical scenarios in which charged lepton corrections are responsible for generating a nonzero value of the reactor mixing angle. We employ a full set of leptonic sum rules as required by the unitarity of the lepton mixing matrix, which can be reduced to predictions for the observable mixing angles and the Dirac C P -violating phase in terms of model parameters. These sum rules are investigated within a given set of theoretical scenarios for the neutrino sector diagonalization matrix for several known classes of charged lepton corrections. The results provide explicit maps of the allowed model parameter space within each given scenario and assumed form of charged lepton perturbations.

A study of diverse clinical decision support rule authoring environments and requirements for integration

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Zhou Li

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Efficient rule authoring tools are critical to allow clinical Knowledge Engineers (KEs, Software Engineers (SEs, and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs to convert medical knowledge into machine executable clinical decision support rules. The goal of this analysis was to identify the critical success factors and challenges of a fully functioning Rule Authoring Environment (RAE in order to define requirements for a scalable, comprehensive tool to manage enterprise level rules. Methods The authors evaluated RAEs in active use across Partners Healthcare, including enterprise wide, ambulatory only, and system specific tools, with a focus on rule editors for reminder and medication rules. We conducted meetings with users of these RAEs to discuss their general experience and perceived advantages and limitations of these tools. Results While the overall rule authoring process is similar across the 10 separate RAEs, the system capabilities and architecture vary widely. Most current RAEs limit the ability of the clinical decision support (CDS interventions to be standardized, sharable, interoperable, and extensible. No existing system meets all requirements defined by knowledge management users. Conclusions A successful, scalable, integrated rule authoring environment will need to support a number of key requirements and functions in the areas of knowledge representation, metadata, terminology, authoring collaboration, user interface, integration with electronic health record (EHR systems, testing, and reporting.

A clinical decision rule for the use of plain radiography in children after acute wrist injury: development and external validation of the Amsterdam Pediatric Wrist Rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slaar, Annelie; Maas, Mario; Rijn, Rick R. van; Walenkamp, Monique M.J.; Bentohami, Abdelali; Goslings, J.C.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Jager, L.C.; Sosef, Nico L.; Velde, Romuald van; Ultee, Jan M.; Schep, Niels W.L.

2016-01-01

In most hospitals, children with acute wrist trauma are routinely referred for radiography. To develop and validate a clinical decision rule to decide whether radiography in children with wrist trauma is required. We prospectively developed and validated a clinical decision rule in two study populations. All children who presented in the emergency department of four hospitals with pain following wrist trauma were included and evaluated for 18 clinical variables. The outcome was a wrist fracture diagnosed by plain radiography. Included in the study were 787 children. The prediction model consisted of six variables: age, swelling of the distal radius, visible deformation, distal radius tender to palpation, anatomical snuffbox tender to palpation, and painful or abnormal supination. The model showed an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were 95.9% and 37.3%, respectively. The use of this model would have resulted in a 22% absolute reduction of radiographic examinations. In a validation study, 7/170 fractures (4.1%, 95% CI: 1.7-8.3%) would have been missed using the decision model. The decision model may be a valuable tool to decide whether radiography in children after wrist trauma is required. (orig.)

A clinical decision rule for the use of plain radiography in children after acute wrist injury: development and external validation of the Amsterdam Pediatric Wrist Rules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slaar, Annelie; Maas, Mario; Rijn, Rick R. van [University of Amsterdam, Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Centre, Meibergdreef 9, 1105, AZ, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Walenkamp, Monique M.J.; Bentohami, Abdelali; Goslings, J.C. [University of Amsterdam, Trauma Unit, Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Steyerberg, Ewout W. [Erasmus MC - University Medical Centre, Department of Public Health, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Jager, L.C. [University of Amsterdam, Emergency Department, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Sosef, Nico L. [Spaarne Hospital, Department of Surgery, Hoofddorp (Netherlands); Velde, Romuald van [Tergooi Hospitals, Department of Surgery, Hilversum (Netherlands); Ultee, Jan M. [Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Department of Surgery, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Schep, Niels W.L. [University of Amsterdam, Trauma Unit, Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Maasstadziekenhuis Rotterdam, Department of Surgery, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

2016-01-15

In most hospitals, children with acute wrist trauma are routinely referred for radiography. To develop and validate a clinical decision rule to decide whether radiography in children with wrist trauma is required. We prospectively developed and validated a clinical decision rule in two study populations. All children who presented in the emergency department of four hospitals with pain following wrist trauma were included and evaluated for 18 clinical variables. The outcome was a wrist fracture diagnosed by plain radiography. Included in the study were 787 children. The prediction model consisted of six variables: age, swelling of the distal radius, visible deformation, distal radius tender to palpation, anatomical snuffbox tender to palpation, and painful or abnormal supination. The model showed an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were 95.9% and 37.3%, respectively. The use of this model would have resulted in a 22% absolute reduction of radiographic examinations. In a validation study, 7/170 fractures (4.1%, 95% CI: 1.7-8.3%) would have been missed using the decision model. The decision model may be a valuable tool to decide whether radiography in children after wrist trauma is required. (orig.)

Sensitivity of a Clinical Decision Rule and Early Computed Tomography in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

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Dustin G. Mark

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Application of a clinical decision rule for subarachnoid hemorrhage, in combination with cranial computed tomography (CT performed within six hours of ictus (early cranial CT, may be able to reasonably exclude a diagnosis of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. This study’s objective was to examine the sensitivity of both early cranial CT and a previously validated clinical decision rule among emergency department (ED patients with aSAH and a normal mental status. Methods: Patients were evaluated in the 21 EDs of an integrated health delivery system between January 2007 and June 2013. We identified by chart review a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with aSAH in the setting of a normal mental status and performance of early cranial CT. Variables comprising the SAH clinical decision rule (age >40, presence of neck pain or stiffness, headache onset with exertion, loss of consciousness at headache onset were abstracted from the chart and assessed for inter-rater reliability. Results: One hundred fifty-five patients with aSAH met study inclusion criteria. The sensitivity of early cranial CT was 95.5% (95% CI [90.9-98.2]. The sensitivity of the SAH clinical decision rule was also 95.5% (95% CI [90.9-98.2]. Since all false negative cases for each diagnostic modality were mutually independent, the combined use of both early cranial CT and the clinical decision rule improved sensitivity to 100% (95% CI [97.6-100.0]. Conclusion: Neither early cranial CT nor the SAH clinical decision rule demonstrated ideal sensitivity for aSAH in this retrospective cohort. However, the combination of both strategies might optimize sensitivity for this life-threatening disease.

Development of a clinical prediction rule for identifying women with tension-type headache who are likely to achieve short-term success with joint mobilization and muscle trigger point therapy.

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Fernández-de-las-Peñas, César; Cleland, Joshua A; Palomeque-del-Cerro, Luis; Caminero, Ana Belén; Guillem-Mesado, Amparo; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo

2011-02-01

To identify prognostic factors from the history and physical examination in women with tension-type headache (TTH) who are likely to experience self-perceived clinical improvement following a multimodal physical therapy session including joint mobilization and muscle trigger point (TrP) therapies. No definitive therapeutic intervention is available for TTH. It would be useful for clinicians to have a clinical prediction rule for selecting which TTH patients may experience improved outcomes following a multimodal physical therapy program. Women diagnosed with pure TTH by 3 experienced neurologists according to the International Headache Society criteria from different neurology departments were included. They underwent a standardized examination (neck mobility, pressure pain thresholds, total tenderness score, presence of muscle TrPs, Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form, the Neck Disability Index [NDI], the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Headache Disability Inventory) and then a multimodal physical therapy session including joint mobilization and TrP therapies. The treatment session included a 30-second grade III or IV central posterior-anterior nonthrust mobilization applied from T4 to T1 thoracic vertebrae, at C7-T1 cervico-thoracic junction and C1-C2 vertebrae for an overall intervention time of 5 minutes Different TrP techniques, particularly soft tissue stroke, pressure release, or muscle energy were applied to head and neck-shoulder muscles (temporalis, suboccipital, upper trapezius, splenius capitis, semispinalis capitis, sternocleidomastoid) to inactivate active muscle TrPs. Participants were classified as having achieved a successful outcome 1 week after the session based on their self-perceived recovery. Potential prognostic variables were entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to determine the most accurate set of variables for prediction of success. Data for 76 subjects were included in the analysis, of which 36 experienced a

Predictive performance of universal termination of resuscitation rules in an Asian community: are they accurate enough?

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Chiang, Wen-Chu; Ko, Patrick Chow-In; Chang, Anna Marie; Liu, Sot Shih-Hung; Wang, Hui-Chih; Yang, Chih-Wei; Hsieh, Ming-Ju; Chen, Shey-Ying; Lai, Mei-Shu; Ma, Matthew Huei-Ming

2015-04-01

Prehospital termination of resuscitation (TOR) rules have not been widely validated outside of Western countries. This study evaluated the performance of TOR rules in an Asian metropolitan with a mixed-tier emergency medical service (EMS). We analysed the Utstein registry of adult, non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) in Taipei to test the performance of TOR rules for advanced life support (ALS) or basic life support (BLS) providers. ALS and BLS-TOR rules were tested in OHCAs among three subgroups: (1) resuscitated by ALS, (2) by BLS and (3) by mixed ALS and BLS. Outcome definition was in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value and decreased transport rate (DTR) among various provider combinations were calculated. Of the 3489 OHCAs included, 240 were resuscitated by ALS, 1727 by BLS and 1522 by ALS and BLS. Overall survival to hospital discharge was 197 patients (5.6%). Specificity and PPV of ALS-TOR and BLS-TOR for identifying death ranged from 70.7% to 81.8% and 95.1% to 98.1%, respectively. Applying the TOR rules would have a DTR of 34.2-63.9%. BLS rules had better predictive accuracy and DTR than ALS rules among all subgroups. Application of the ALS and BLS TOR rules would have decreased OHCA transported to the hospital, and BLS rules are reasonable as the universal criteria in a mixed-tier EMS. However, 1.9-4.9% of those who survived would be misclassified as non-survivors, raising concern of compromising patient safety for the implementation of the rules. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Prediction value of the Canadian CT head rule and the New Orleans criteria for positive head CT scan and acute neurosurgical procedures in minor head trauma: a multicenter external validation study.

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Bouida, Wahid; Marghli, Soudani; Souissi, Sami; Ksibi, Hichem; Methammem, Mehdi; Haguiga, Habib; Khedher, Sonia; Boubaker, Hamdi; Beltaief, Kaouthar; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Trimech, Mohamed Naceur; Kerkeni, Wiem; Chebili, Nawfel; Halila, Imen; Rejeb, Imen; Boukef, Riadh; Rekik, Noureddine; Bouhaja, Bechir; Letaief, Mondher; Nouira, Semir

2013-05-01

The New Orleans Criteria and the Canadian CT Head Rule have been developed to decrease the number of normal computed tomography (CT) results in mild head injury. We compare the performance of both decision rules for identifying patients with intracranial traumatic lesions and those who require an urgent neurosurgical intervention after mild head injury. This was an observational cohort study performed between 2008 and 2011 on patients with mild head injury who were aged 10 years or older. We collected prospectively clinical head CT scan findings and outcome. Primary outcome was need for neurosurgical intervention, defined as either death or craniotomy, or the need of intubation within 15 days of the traumatic event. Secondary outcome was the presence of traumatic lesions on head CT scan. New Orleans Criteria and Canadian CT Head Rule decision rules were compared by using sensitivity specifications and positive and negative predictive value. We enrolled 1,582 patients. Neurosurgical intervention was performed in 34 patients (2.1%) and positive CT findings were demonstrated in 218 patients (13.8%). Sensitivity and specificity for need for neurosurgical intervention were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90% to 100%) and 60% (95% CI 44% to 76%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 82% (95% CI 69% to 95%) and 26% (95% CI 24% to 28%) for the New Orleans Criteria. Negative predictive values for the above-mentioned clinical decision rules were 100% and 99% and positive values were 5% and 2%, respectively, for the Canadian CT Head Rule and New Orleans Criteria. Sensitivity and specificity for clinical significant head CT findings were 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) and 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 86% (95% CI 81% to 91%) and 28% (95% CI 26% to 30%) for the New Orleans Criteria. A similar trend of results was found in the subgroup of patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15. For patients with mild head injury, the Canadian CT Head Rule had higher

The application of a clinical prediction rule for patients with neck pain likely to benefit from cervical traction: A case report.

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Bernstetter, Andrew

2016-10-01

Cervical traction is a commonly utilized intervention in the treatment of patients with neck pain. In 2009, a clinical prediction rule (CPR) was developed as a way to assist clinicians in determining the patient population most likely to respond to cervical traction, though this CPR has yet to be validated. The purpose of this case report is to demonstrate the application of that CPR. The patient was a 46-year-old female with a four-week history of right-sided neck and shoulder pain, with numbness and tingling of her thumb and index finger. Treatment consisted of five sessions provided over 3 weeks. The plan of care included home mechanical cervical traction, exercise, and manual therapy. The patient achieved pain-free cervical range of motion. Neck disability index scores decreased from 28% to 6%, and the Patient-Specific Functional Scale average score improved from 5.5 to 10 out of 10. This case report demonstrates the application of a CPR to assist in deciding if cervical traction is an appropriate intervention. Further research is needed to validate the CPR and to establish the optimal mode of delivery for traction.

Current V3 genotyping algorithms are inadequate for predicting X4 co-receptor usage in clinical isolates.

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Low, Andrew J; Dong, Winnie; Chan, Dennison; Sing, Tobias; Swanstrom, Ronald; Jensen, Mark; Pillai, Satish; Good, Benjamin; Harrigan, P Richard

2007-09-12

Integrating CCR5 antagonists into clinical practice would benefit from accurate assays of co-receptor usage (CCR5 versus CXCR4) with fast turnaround and low cost. Published HIV V3-loop based predictors of co-receptor usage were compared with actual phenotypic tropism results in a large cohort of antiretroviral naive individuals to determine accuracy on clinical samples and identify areas for improvement. Aligned HIV envelope V3 loop sequences (n = 977), derived by bulk sequencing were analyzed by six methods: the 11/25 rule; a neural network (NN), two support vector machines, and two subtype-B position specific scoring matrices (PSSM). Co-receptor phenotype results (Trofile Co-receptor Phenotype Assay; Monogram Biosciences) were stratified by CXCR4 relative light unit (RLU) readout and CD4 cell count. Co-receptor phenotype was available for 920 clinical samples with V3 genotypes having fewer than seven amino acid mixtures (n = 769 R5; n = 151 X4-capable). Sensitivity and specificity for predicting X4 capacity were evaluated for the 11/25 rule (30% sensitivity/93% specificity), NN (44%/88%), PSSM(sinsi) (34%/96%), PSSM(x4r5) (24%/97%), SVMgenomiac (22%/90%) and SVMgeno2pheno (50%/89%). Quantitative increases in sensitivity could be obtained by optimizing the cut-off for methods with continuous output (PSSM methods), and/or integrating clinical data (CD4%). Sensitivity was directly proportional to strength of X4 signal in the phenotype assay (P < 0.05). Current default implementations of co-receptor prediction algorithms are inadequate for predicting HIV X4 co-receptor usage in clinical samples, particularly those X4 phenotypes with low CXCR4 RLU signals. Significant improvements can be made to genotypic predictors, including training on clinical samples, using additional data to improve predictions and optimizing cutoffs and increasing genotype sensitivity.

A programmable rules engine to provide clinical decision support using HTML forms.

Science.gov (United States)

Heusinkveld, J; Geissbuhler, A; Sheshelidze, D; Miller, R

1999-01-01

The authors have developed a simple method for specifying rules to be applied to information on HTML forms. This approach allows clinical experts, who lack the programming expertise needed to write CGI scripts, to construct and maintain domain-specific knowledge and ordering capabilities within WizOrder, the order-entry and decision support system used at Vanderbilt Hospital. The clinical knowledge base maintainers use HTML editors to create forms and spreadsheet programs for rule entry. A test environment has been developed which uses Netscape to display forms; the production environment displays forms using an embedded browser.

The Cynomolgus Macaque Natural History Model of Pneumonic Tularemia for Predicting Clinical Efficacy Under the Animal Rule

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Guina, Tina; Lanning, Lynda L.; Omland, Kristian S.; Williams, Mark S.; Wolfraim, Larry A.; Heyse, Stephen P.; Houchens, Christopher R.; Sanz, Patrick; Hewitt, Judith A.

2018-01-01

Francisella tularensis is a highly infectious Gram-negative bacterium that is the etiologic agent of tularemia in animals and humans and a Tier 1 select agent. The natural incidence of pneumonic tularemia worldwide is very low; therefore, it is not feasible to conduct clinical efficacy testing of tularemia medical countermeasures (MCM) in human populations. Development and licensure of tularemia therapeutics and vaccines need to occur under the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Animal Rule under which efficacy studies are conducted in well-characterized animal models that reflect the pathophysiology of human disease. The Tularemia Animal Model Qualification (AMQ) Working Group is seeking qualification of the cynomolgus macaque (Macaca fascicularis) model of pneumonic tularemia under Drug Development Tools Qualification Programs with the FDA based upon the results of studies described in this manuscript. Analysis of data on survival, average time to death, average time to fever onset, average interval between fever and death, and bacteremia; together with summaries of clinical signs, necropsy findings, and histopathology from the animals exposed to aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4 in five natural history studies and one antibiotic efficacy study form the basis for the proposed cynomolgus macaque model. Results support the conclusion that signs of pneumonic tularemia in cynomolgus macaques exposed to 300–3,000 colony forming units (cfu) aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4, under the conditions described herein, and human pneumonic tularemia cases are highly similar. Animal age, weight, and sex of animals challenged with 300–3,000 cfu Schu S4 did not impact fever onset in studies described herein. This study summarizes critical parameters and endpoints of a well-characterized cynomolgus macaque model of pneumonic tularemia and demonstrates this model is appropriate for qualification, and for testing efficacy of tularemia therapeutics under Animal Rule. PMID

Estimating the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus : a clinical prediction model based on patient characteristics and medical history

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

Objective To develop a clinical prediction rule that can help the clinician to identify women at high and low risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) early in pregnancy in order to improve the efficiency of GDM screening. Design We used data from a prospective cohort study to develop the

A random walk rule for phase I clinical trials.

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Durham, S D; Flournoy, N; Rosenberger, W F

1997-06-01

We describe a family of random walk rules for the sequential allocation of dose levels to patients in a dose-response study, or phase I clinical trial. Patients are sequentially assigned the next higher, same, or next lower dose level according to some probability distribution, which may be determined by ethical considerations as well as the patient's response. It is shown that one can choose these probabilities in order to center dose level assignments unimodally around any target quantile of interest. Estimation of the quantile is discussed; the maximum likelihood estimator and its variance are derived under a two-parameter logistic distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimator is compared with other nonparametric estimators. Random walk rules have clear advantages: they are simple to implement, and finite and asymptotic distribution theory is completely worked out. For a specific random walk rule, we compute finite and asymptotic properties and give examples of its use in planning studies. Having the finite distribution theory available and tractable obviates the need for elaborate simulation studies to analyze the properties of the design. The small sample properties of our rule, as determined by exact theory, compare favorably to those of the continual reassessment method, determined by simulation.

A prediction rule for shoulder pain related sick leave: a prospective cohort study

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van der Heijden Geert JMG

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of shoulder pain related sick leave in workers is scarce and inconsistent. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule for calculating the risk of shoulder pain related sick leave for individual workers, during the 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Methods A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was conducted among 350 workers with a new episode of shoulder pain. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, sick leave in the 2 months prior to consultation, pain intensity, disability, comorbidity, physical activity, physical work load, psychological factors, and the psychosocial work environment. The main outcome measure was sick leave during 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Results Response rate to the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months was 85%. During the 6 months after first consultation 30% (89/298 of the workers reported sick leave. 16% (47 reported 10 days sick leave or more. Sick leave during this period was predicted in a multivariable model by a longer duration of sick leave prior to consultation, more shoulder pain, a perceived cause of strain or overuse during regular activities, and co-existing psychological complaints. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was satisfactory with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76. Conclusion Although 30% of all workers with shoulder pain reported sick leave during follow-up, the duration of sick leave was limited to a few days in most workers. We developed a prediction rule and a score chart that can be used by general practitioners and occupational health care providers to calculate the absolute risk of sick leave in individual workers with shoulder pain, which

Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese markets based on superior predictive test

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Wang, Shan; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-12-01

Technical trading rules have a long history of being used by practitioners in financial markets. The profitable ability and efficiency of technical trading rules are yet controversial. In this paper, we test the performance of more than seven thousand traditional technical trading rules on the Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSCI) from May 21, 1992 through June 30, 2013 and China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) from April 8, 2005 through June 30, 2013 to check whether an effective trading strategy could be found by using the performance measurements based on the return and Sharpe ratio. To correct for the influence of the data-snooping effect, we adopt the Superior Predictive Ability test to evaluate if there exists a trading rule that can significantly outperform the benchmark. The result shows that for SSCI, technical trading rules offer significant profitability, while for CSI 300, this ability is lost. We further partition the SSCI into two sub-series and find that the efficiency of technical trading in sub-series, which have exactly the same spanning period as that of CSI 300, is severely weakened. By testing the trading rules on both indexes with a five-year moving window, we find that during the financial bubble from 2005 to 2007, the effectiveness of technical trading rules is greatly improved. This is consistent with the predictive ability of technical trading rules which appears when the market is less efficient.

Termination of Resuscitation Rules to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest for an Intermediate Life Support Prehospital System.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheong, Randy Wang Long; Li, Huihua; Doctor, Nausheen Edwin; Ng, Yih Yng; Goh, E Shaun; Leong, Benjamin Sieu-Hon; Gan, Han Nee; Foo, David; Tham, Lai Peng; Charles, Rabind; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

2016-01-01

Futile resuscitation can lead to unnecessary transports for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). The Basic Life Support (BLS) and Advanced Life Support (ALS) termination of resuscitation (TOR) guidelines have been validated with good results in North America. This study aims to evaluate the performance of these two rules in predicting neurological outcomes of OHCA patients in Singapore, which has an intermediate life support Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system. A retrospective cohort study was carried out on Singapore OHCA data collected from April 2010 to May 2012 for the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS). The outcomes of each rule were compared to the actual neurological outcomes of the patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and predicted transport rates of each test were evaluated. A total of 2,193 patients had cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. TOR was recommended for 1,411 patients with the BLS-TOR rule, with a specificity of 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.7, 100.0), sensitivity 65.7% (63.6, 67.7), NPV 5.6% (4.1, 7.5), and transportation rate 35.6%. Using the ALS-TOR rule, TOR was recommended for 587 patients, specificity 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.4, 100.0), sensitivity 27.3% (25.4, 29.3), NPV 2.7% (2.0, 3.7), and transportation rate 73.2%. BLS-TOR predicted survival (any neurological outcome) with specificity 93.4% (95% CI 85.3, 97.8) versus ALS-TOR 98.7% (95% CI 92.9, 99.8). Both the BLS and ALS-TOR rules had high specificities and PPV values in predicting neurological outcomes, the BLS-TOR rule had a lower predicted transport rate while the ALS-TOR rule was more accurate in predicting futility of resuscitation. Further research into unique local cultural issues would be useful to evaluate the feasibility of any system-wide implementation of TOR.

Comparison of the effectiveness of three manual physical therapy techniques in a subgroup of patients with low back pain who satisfy a clinical prediction rule: Study protocol of a randomized clinical trial [NCT00257998

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Childs John D

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently a clinical prediction rule (CPR has been developed and validated that accurately identifies patients with low back pain (LBP that are likely to benefit from a lumbo-pelvic thrust manipulation. The studies that developed and validated the rule used the identical manipulation procedure. However, recent evidence suggests that different manual therapy techniques may result similar outcomes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of three different manual therapy techniques in a subgroup of patient with low back pain that satisfy the CPR. Methods/Design Consecutive patients with LBP referred to physical therapy clinics in one of four geographical locations who satisfy the CPR will be invited to participate in this randomized clinical trial. Subjects who agree to participate will undergo a standard evaluation and complete a number of patient self-report questionnaires including the Oswestry Disability Index (OSW, which will serve as the primary outcome measure. Following the baseline examination patients will be randomly assigned to receive the lumbopelvic manipulation used in the development of the CPR, an alternative lumbar manipulation technique, or non-thrust lumbar mobilization technique for the first 2 visits. Beginning on visit 3, all 3 groups will receive an identical standard exercise program for 3 visits (visits 3,4,5. Outcomes of interest will be captured by a therapist blind to group assignment at 1 week (3rd visit, 4 weeks (6th visit and at a 6-month follow-up. The primary aim of the study will be tested with analysis of variance (ANOVA using the change in OSW score from baseline to 4-weeks (OSWBaseline – OSW4-weeks as the dependent variable. The independent variable will be treatment with three levels (lumbo-pelvic manipulation, alternative lumbar manipulation, lumbar mobilization. Discussion This trial will be the first to investigate the effectiveness of various manual therapy

Clinical prediction model to aid emergency doctors managing febrile children at risk of serious bacterial infections: diagnostic study

Science.gov (United States)

Nijman, Ruud G; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Thompson, Matthew; van Veen, Mirjam; van Meurs, Alfred H J; van der Lei, Johan; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moll, Henriette A

2013-01-01

Objective To derive, cross validate, and externally validate a clinical prediction model that assesses the risks of different serious bacterial infections in children with fever at the emergency department. Design Prospective observational diagnostic study. Setting Three paediatric emergency care units: two in the Netherlands and one in the United Kingdom. Participants Children with fever, aged 1 month to 15 years, at three paediatric emergency care units: Rotterdam (n=1750) and the Hague (n=967), the Netherlands, and Coventry (n=487), United Kingdom. A prediction model was constructed using multivariable polytomous logistic regression analysis and included the predefined predictor variables age, duration of fever, tachycardia, temperature, tachypnoea, ill appearance, chest wall retractions, prolonged capillary refill time (>3 seconds), oxygen saturation rule out the presence of other SBIs. Discriminative ability (C statistic) to predict pneumonia was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.88); for other SBIs this was even better: 0.86 (0.79 to 0.92). Risk thresholds of 10% or more were useful to identify children with serious bacterial infections; risk thresholds less than 2.5% were useful to rule out the presence of serious bacterial infections. External validation showed good discrimination for the prediction of pneumonia (0.81, 0.69 to 0.93); discriminative ability for the prediction of other SBIs was lower (0.69, 0.53 to 0.86). Conclusion A validated prediction model, including clinical signs, symptoms, and C reactive protein level, was useful for estimating the likelihood of pneumonia and other SBIs in children with fever, such as septicaemia/meningitis and urinary tract infections. PMID:23550046

ABOUT CLINICAL EXPERT SYSTEM BASED ON RULES USING DATA MINING TECHNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. P. Martsenyuk

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In the work the topics of software implementation of rule induction method based on sequential covering algorithm are considered. Such approach allows us to develop clinical decision support system. The project is implemented within Netbeans IDE based on Java-classes.

Behavioral rules of bank’s point-of-sale for segments description and scoring prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Bizhani

2011-04-01

Full Text Available One of the important factors for the success of a bank industry is to monitor their customers' behavior and their point-of-sale (POS. The bank needs to know its merchants' behavior to find interesting ones to attract more transactions which results in the growth of its income and assets. The recency, frequency and monetary (RFM analysis is a famous approach for extracting behavior of customers and is a basis for marketing and customer relationship management (CRM, but it is not aligned enough for banking context. Introducing RF*M* in this article results in a better understanding of groups of merchants. Another artifact of RF*M* is RF*M* scoring which is applied in two ways, preprocessing the POSs and assigning behavioral meaningful labels to the merchants’ segments. The class labels and the RF*M* parameters are entered into a rule-based classification algorithm to achieve descriptive rules of the clusters. These descriptive rules outlined the boundaries of RF*M* parameters for each cluster. Since the rules are generated by a classification algorithm, they can also be applied for predicting the behavioral label and scoring of the upcoming POSs. These rules are called behavioral rules.

Simple Decision-Analytic Functions of the AUC for Ruling Out a Risk Prediction Model and an Added Predictor.

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Baker, Stuart G

2018-02-01

When using risk prediction models, an important consideration is weighing performance against the cost (monetary and harms) of ascertaining predictors. The minimum test tradeoff (MTT) for ruling out a model is the minimum number of all-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. The MTT for ruling out an added predictor is the minimum number of added-predictor ascertainments per correct prediction to yield a positive overall expected utility. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out a model is 1/[P (H(AUC model )], where H(AUC) = AUC - {½ (1-AUC)} ½ , AUC is the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and P is the probability of the predicted event in the target population. An approximation to the MTT for ruling out an added predictor is 1 /[P {(H(AUC Model:2 ) - H(AUC Model:1 )], where Model 2 includes an added predictor relative to Model 1. The latter approximation requires the Tangent Condition that the true positive rate at the point on the ROC curve with a slope of 1 is larger for Model 2 than Model 1. These approximations are suitable for back-of-the-envelope calculations. For example, in a study predicting the risk of invasive breast cancer, Model 2 adds to the predictors in Model 1 a set of 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Based on the AUCs and the Tangent Condition, an MTT of 7200 was computed, which indicates that 7200 sets of SNPs are needed for every correct prediction of breast cancer to yield a positive overall expected utility. If ascertaining the SNPs costs $500, this MTT suggests that SNP ascertainment is not likely worthwhile for this risk prediction.

Re-Evaluation of Acid-Base Prediction Rules in Patients with Chronic Respiratory Acidosis

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Tereza Martinu

2003-01-01

Full Text Available RATIONALE: The prediction rules for the evaluation of the acid-base status in patients with chronic respiratory acidosis, derived primarily from an experimental canine model, suggest that complete compensation should not occur. This appears to contradict frequent observations of normal or near-normal pH levels in patients with chronic hypercapnia.

Promoting Changes in Children's Predictive Rules about Natural Phenomena: The Role of Computer-Based Modelling Strategies. Technical Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Frenette, Micheline

Trying to change the predictive rule for the sinking and floating phenomena, students have a great difficulty in understanding density and they are insensitive to empirical counter-examples designed to challenge their own rule. The purpose of this study is to examine the process whereby students from sixth and seventh grades relinquish their…

Clinical value of the Ottawa ankle rules for diagnosis of fractures in acute ankle injuries.

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Xin Wang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Ottawa ankle rules (OAR are clinical decision guidelines used to identify whether patients with ankle injuries need to undergo radiography. The OAR have been proven that their application reduces unnecessary radiography. They have nearly perfect sensitivity for identifying clinically significant ankle fractures. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of the OAR in China, to examine their accuracy for the diagnosis of fractures in patients with acute ankle sprains, and to assess their clinical utility for the detection of occult fractures. METHODS: In this prospective study, patients with acute ankle injuries were enrolled during a 6-month period. The eligible patients were examined by emergency orthopedic specialists using the OAR, and then underwent ankle radiography. The results of examination using the OAR were compared with the radiographic results to assess the accuracy of the OAR for ankle fractures. Patients with OAR results highly suggestive of fracture, but no evidence of a fracture on radiographs, were advised to undergo 3-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT. RESULTS: 183 patients with ankle injuries were enrolled in the study and 63 of these injuries involved fractures. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the OAR for detection of fractures of the ankle were 96.8%, 45.8%, 48.4% and 96.5%, respectively. Our results suggest that clinical application of the OAR could decrease unnecessary radiographs by 31.1%. Of the 21 patients with positive OAR results and negative radiographic findings who underwent 3D-CT examination, five had occult fractures of the lateral malleolus. CONCLUSIONS: The OAR are applicable in the Chinese population, and have high sensitivity and modest specificity for the diagnosis of fractures associated with acute ankle injury. They may detect some occult fractures of the malleoli that are not visible on

Is the Factor-of-2 Rule Broadly Applicable for Evaluating the Prediction Accuracy of Metal-Toxicity Models?

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Joseph S; Traudt, Elizabeth M; Ranville, James F

2018-01-01

In aquatic toxicology, a toxicity-prediction model is generally deemed acceptable if its predicted median lethal concentrations (LC50 values) or median effect concentrations (EC50 values) are within a factor of 2 of their paired, observed LC50 or EC50 values. However, that rule of thumb is based on results from only two studies: multiple LC50 values for the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) exposed to Cu in one type of exposure water, and multiple EC50 values for Daphnia magna exposed to Zn in another type of exposure water. We tested whether the factor-of-2 rule of thumb also is supported in a different dataset in which D. magna were exposed separately to Cd, Cu, Ni, or Zn. Overall, the factor-of-2 rule of thumb appeared to be a good guide to evaluating the acceptability of a toxicity model's underprediction or overprediction of observed LC50 or EC50 values in these acute toxicity tests.

The continual reassessment method: comparison of Bayesian stopping rules for dose-ranging studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zohar, S; Chevret, S

2001-10-15

The continual reassessment method (CRM) provides a Bayesian estimation of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in phase I clinical trials and is also used to estimate the minimal efficacy dose (MED) in phase II clinical trials. In this paper we propose Bayesian stopping rules for the CRM, based on either posterior or predictive probability distributions that can be applied sequentially during the trial. These rules aim at early detection of either the mis-choice of dose range or a prefixed gain in the point estimate or accuracy of estimated probability of response associated with the MTD (or MED). They were compared through a simulation study under six situations that could represent the underlying unknown dose-response (either toxicity or failure) relationship, in terms of sample size, probability of correct selection and bias of the response probability associated to the MTD (or MED). Our results show that the stopping rules act correctly, with early stopping by using the two first rules based on the posterior distribution when the actual underlying dose-response relationship is far from that initially supposed, while the rules based on predictive gain functions provide a discontinuation of inclusions whatever the actual dose-response curve after 20 patients on average, that is, depending mostly on the accumulated data. The stopping rules were then applied to a data set from a dose-ranging phase II clinical trial aiming at estimating the MED dose of midazolam in the sedation of infants during cardiac catheterization. All these findings suggest the early use of the two first rules to detect a mis-choice of dose range, while they confirm the requirement of including at least 20 patients at the same dose to reach an accurate estimate of MTD (MED). A two-stage design is under study. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Location Prediction Based on Transition Probability Matrices Constructing from Sequential Rules for Spatial-Temporal K-Anonymity Dataset

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Liu, Zhao; Zhu, Yunhong; Wu, Chenxue

2016-01-01

Spatial-temporal k-anonymity has become a mainstream approach among techniques for protection of users’ privacy in location-based services (LBS) applications, and has been applied to several variants such as LBS snapshot queries and continuous queries. Analyzing large-scale spatial-temporal anonymity sets may benefit several LBS applications. In this paper, we propose two location prediction methods based on transition probability matrices constructing from sequential rules for spatial-temporal k-anonymity dataset. First, we define single-step sequential rules mined from sequential spatial-temporal k-anonymity datasets generated from continuous LBS queries for multiple users. We then construct transition probability matrices from mined single-step sequential rules, and normalize the transition probabilities in the transition matrices. Next, we regard a mobility model for an LBS requester as a stationary stochastic process and compute the n-step transition probability matrices by raising the normalized transition probability matrices to the power n. Furthermore, we propose two location prediction methods: rough prediction and accurate prediction. The former achieves the probabilities of arriving at target locations along simple paths those include only current locations, target locations and transition steps. By iteratively combining the probabilities for simple paths with n steps and the probabilities for detailed paths with n-1 steps, the latter method calculates transition probabilities for detailed paths with n steps from current locations to target locations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments, and correctness and flexibility of our proposed algorithm have been verified. PMID:27508502

Society for immunotherapy of cancer (SITC) statement on the proposed changes to the common rule.

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Kaufman, Howard L; Butterfield, Lisa H; Coulie, Pierre G; Demaria, Sandra; Ferris, Robert L; Galon, Jérôme; Khleif, Samir N; Mellman, Ira; Ohashi, Pamela S; Overwijk, Willem W; Topalian, Suzanne L; Marincola, Francesco M

2016-01-01

The Common Rule is a set of ethical principles that provide guidance on the management of human subjects taking part in biomedical and behavioral research in the United States. The elements of the Common Rule were initially developed in 1981 following a revision of the Declaration of Helsinki in 1975. Most academic facilities follow the Common Rule in the regulation of clinical trials research. Recently, the government has suggested a revision of the Common Rule to include more contemporary and streamlined oversight of clinical research. In this commentary, the leadership of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) provides their opinion on this plan. While the Society recognizes the considerable contribution of clinical research in supporting progress in tumor immunotherapy and supports the need for revisions to the Common Rule, there is also some concern over certain elements which may restrict access to biospecimens and clinical data at a time when high throughput technologies, computational biology and assay standardization is allowing major advances in understanding cancer biology and providing potential predictive biomarkers of immunotherapy response. The Society values its professional commitment to patients for improving clinical outcomes with tumor immunotherapy and supports continued discussion with all stakeholders before implementing changes to the Common Rule in order to ensure maximal patient protections while promoting continued clinical research at this historic time in cancer research.

Augmenting Predictive Modeling Tools with Clinical Insights for Care Coordination Program Design and Implementation.

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Johnson, Tracy L; Brewer, Daniel; Estacio, Raymond; Vlasimsky, Tara; Durfee, Michael J; Thompson, Kathy R; Everhart, Rachel M; Rinehart, Deborath J; Batal, Holly

2015-01-01

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) awarded Denver Health's (DH) integrated, safety net health care system $19.8 million to implement a "population health" approach into the delivery of primary care. This major practice transformation builds on the Patient Centered Medical Home (PCMH) and Wagner's Chronic Care Model (CCM) to achieve the "Triple Aim": improved health for populations, care to individuals, and lower per capita costs. This paper presents a case study of how DH integrated published predictive models and front-line clinical judgment to implement a clinically actionable, risk stratification of patients. This population segmentation approach was used to deploy enhanced care team staff resources and to tailor care-management services to patient need, especially for patients at high risk of avoidable hospitalization. Developing, implementing, and gaining clinical acceptance of the Health Information Technology (HIT) solution for patient risk stratification was a major grant objective. In addition to describing the Information Technology (IT) solution itself, we focus on the leadership and organizational processes that facilitated its multidisciplinary development and ongoing iterative refinement, including the following: team composition, target population definition, algorithm rule development, performance assessment, and clinical-workflow optimization. We provide examples of how dynamic business intelligence tools facilitated clinical accessibility for program design decisions by enabling real-time data views from a population perspective down to patient-specific variables. We conclude that population segmentation approaches that integrate clinical perspectives with predictive modeling results can better identify high opportunity patients amenable to medical home-based, enhanced care team interventions.

Clinical studies of biomarkers in suicide prediction

OpenAIRE

Jokinen, Jussi

2007-01-01

Suicide is a major clinical problem in psychiatry and suicidal behaviours can be seen as a nosological entity per se. Predicting suicide is difficult due to its low base-rate and the limited specificity of clinical predictors. Prospective biological studies suggest that dysfunctions in the hypothalamo pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis and the serotonergic system have predictive power for suicide in mood disorders. Suicide attempt is the most robust clinical predictor making suici...

External Validation and Update of a Prediction Rule for the Duration of Sickness Absence Due to Common Mental Disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Norder, Giny; Roelen, Corne A. M.; van der Klink, Jac J. L.; Bultmann, Ute; Sluiter, J. K.; Nieuwenhuijsen, K.

Purpose The objective of the present study was to validate an existing prediction rule (including age, education, depressive/anxiety symptoms, and recovery expectations) for predictions of the duration of sickness absence due to common mental disorders (CMDs) and investigate the added value of

Phonological reduplication in sign language: rules rule

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Iris eBerent

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Productivity—the hallmark of linguistic competence—is typically attributed to algebraic rules that support broad generalizations. Past research on spoken language has documented such generalizations in both adults and infants. But whether algebraic rules form part of the linguistic competence of signers remains unknown. To address this question, here we gauge the generalization afforded by American Sign Language (ASL. As a case study, we examine reduplication (X→XX—a rule that, inter alia, generates ASL nouns from verbs. If signers encode this rule, then they should freely extend it to novel syllables, including ones with features that are unattested in ASL. And since reduplicated disyllables are preferred in ASL, such rule should favor novel reduplicated signs. Novel reduplicated signs should thus be preferred to nonreduplicative controls (in rating, and consequently, such stimuli should also be harder to classify as nonsigns (in the lexical decision task. The results of four experiments support this prediction. These findings suggest that the phonological knowledge of signers includes powerful algebraic rules. The convergence between these conclusions and previous evidence for phonological rules in spoken language suggests that the architecture of the phonological mind is partly amodal.

Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

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Benjamin W. Y. Lo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients. Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs. Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

A NEW CLINICAL PREDICTION CRITERION ACCURATELY DETERMINES A SUBSET OF PATIENTS WITH BILATERAL PRIMARY ALDOSTERONISM BEFORE ADRENAL VENOUS SAMPLING.

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Kocjan, Tomaz; Janez, Andrej; Stankovic, Milenko; Vidmar, Gaj; Jensterle, Mojca

2016-05-01

Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the only available method to distinguish bilateral from unilateral primary aldosteronism (PA). AVS has several drawbacks, so it is reasonable to avoid this procedure when the results would not affect clinical management. Our objective was to identify a clinical criterion that can reliably predict nonlateralized AVS as a surrogate for bilateral PA that is not treated surgically. A retrospective diagnostic cross-sectional study conducted at Slovenian national endocrine referral center included 69 consecutive patients (mean age 56 ± 8 years, 21 females) with PA who underwent AVS. PA was confirmed with the saline infusion test (SIT). AVS was performed sequentially during continuous adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) infusion. The main outcome measures were variables associated with nonlateralized AVS to derive a clinical prediction rule. Sixty-seven (97%) patients had a successful AVS and were included in the statistical analysis. A total of 39 (58%) patients had nonlateralized AVS. The combined criterion of serum potassium ≥3.5 mmol/L, post-SIT aldosterone AVS. The best overall classification accuracy (50/67 = 75%) was achieved using the post-SIT aldosterone level AVS. Our clinical prediction criterion appears to accurately determine a subset of patients with bilateral PA who could avoid unnecessary AVS and immediately commence with medical treatment.

Cosmic Sum Rules

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

T. Frandsen, Mads; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

2011-01-01

We introduce new sum rules allowing to determine universal properties of the unknown component of the cosmic rays and show how it can be used to predict the positron fraction at energies not yet explored by current experiments and to constrain specific models.......We introduce new sum rules allowing to determine universal properties of the unknown component of the cosmic rays and show how it can be used to predict the positron fraction at energies not yet explored by current experiments and to constrain specific models....

Radiogenomics: predicting clinical normal tissue radiosensitivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alsner, Jan

2006-01-01

Studies on the genetic basis of normal tissue radiosensitivity, or  'radiogenomics', aims at predicting clinical radiosensitivity and optimize treatment from individual genetic profiles. Several studies have now reported links between variations in certain genes related to the biological response...... to radiation injury and risk of normal tissue morbidity in cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. However, after these initial association studies including few genes, we are still far from being able to predict clinical radiosensitivity on an individual level. Recent data from our own studies on risk...

Logic Learning Machine creates explicit and stable rules stratifying neuroblastoma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Cangelosi, Davide; Blengio, Fabiola; Versteeg, Rogier; Eggert, Angelika; Garaventa, Alberto; Gambini, Claudio; Conte, Massimo; Eva, Alessandra; Muselli, Marco; Varesio, Luigi

2013-01-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common pediatric solid tumor. About fifty percent of high risk patients die despite treatment making the exploration of new and more effective strategies for improving stratification mandatory. Hypoxia is a condition of low oxygen tension occurring in poorly vascularized areas of the tumor associated with poor prognosis. We had previously defined a robust gene expression signature measuring the hypoxic component of neuroblastoma tumors (NB-hypo) which is a molecular risk factor. We wanted to develop a prognostic classifier of neuroblastoma patients' outcome blending existing knowledge on clinical and molecular risk factors with the prognostic NB-hypo signature. Furthermore, we were interested in classifiers outputting explicit rules that could be easily translated into the clinical setting. Shadow Clustering (SC) technique, which leads to final models called Logic Learning Machine (LLM), exhibits a good accuracy and promises to fulfill the aims of the work. We utilized this algorithm to classify NB-patients on the bases of the following risk factors: Age at diagnosis, INSS stage, MYCN amplification and NB-hypo. The algorithm generated explicit classification rules in good agreement with existing clinical knowledge. Through an iterative procedure we identified and removed from the dataset those examples which caused instability in the rules. This workflow generated a stable classifier very accurate in predicting good and poor outcome patients. The good performance of the classifier was validated in an independent dataset. NB-hypo was an important component of the rules with a strength similar to that of tumor staging. The novelty of our work is to identify stability, explicit rules and blending of molecular and clinical risk factors as the key features to generate classification rules for NB patients to be conveyed to the clinic and to be used to design new therapies. We derived, through LLM, a set of four stable rules identifying a new

Logic Learning Machine creates explicit and stable rules stratifying neuroblastoma patients

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Neuroblastoma is the most common pediatric solid tumor. About fifty percent of high risk patients die despite treatment making the exploration of new and more effective strategies for improving stratification mandatory. Hypoxia is a condition of low oxygen tension occurring in poorly vascularized areas of the tumor associated with poor prognosis. We had previously defined a robust gene expression signature measuring the hypoxic component of neuroblastoma tumors (NB-hypo) which is a molecular risk factor. We wanted to develop a prognostic classifier of neuroblastoma patients' outcome blending existing knowledge on clinical and molecular risk factors with the prognostic NB-hypo signature. Furthermore, we were interested in classifiers outputting explicit rules that could be easily translated into the clinical setting. Results Shadow Clustering (SC) technique, which leads to final models called Logic Learning Machine (LLM), exhibits a good accuracy and promises to fulfill the aims of the work. We utilized this algorithm to classify NB-patients on the bases of the following risk factors: Age at diagnosis, INSS stage, MYCN amplification and NB-hypo. The algorithm generated explicit classification rules in good agreement with existing clinical knowledge. Through an iterative procedure we identified and removed from the dataset those examples which caused instability in the rules. This workflow generated a stable classifier very accurate in predicting good and poor outcome patients. The good performance of the classifier was validated in an independent dataset. NB-hypo was an important component of the rules with a strength similar to that of tumor staging. Conclusions The novelty of our work is to identify stability, explicit rules and blending of molecular and clinical risk factors as the key features to generate classification rules for NB patients to be conveyed to the clinic and to be used to design new therapies. We derived, through LLM, a set of four

Confirming a predicted selection rule in inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy: the quantum translator-rotator H2 entrapped inside C60.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Minzhong; Jiménez-Ruiz, Mónica; Johnson, Mark R; Rols, Stéphane; Ye, Shufeng; Carravetta, Marina; Denning, Mark S; Lei, Xuegong; Bačić, Zlatko; Horsewill, Anthony J

2014-09-19

We report an inelastic neutron scattering (INS) study of a H2 molecule encapsulated inside the fullerene C60 which confirms the recently predicted selection rule, the first to be established for the INS spectroscopy of aperiodic, discrete molecular compounds. Several transitions from the ground state of para-H2 to certain excited translation-rotation states, forbidden according to the selection rule, are systematically absent from the INS spectra, thus validating the selection rule with a high degree of confidence. Its confirmation sets a precedent, as it runs counter to the widely held view that the INS spectroscopy of molecular compounds is not subject to any selection rules.

Identifying influenza-like illness presentation from unstructured general practice clinical narrative using a text classifier rule-based expert system versus a clinical expert.

Science.gov (United States)

MacRae, Jayden; Love, Tom; Baker, Michael G; Dowell, Anthony; Carnachan, Matthew; Stubbe, Maria; McBain, Lynn

2015-10-06

We designed and validated a rule-based expert system to identify influenza like illness (ILI) from routinely recorded general practice clinical narrative to aid a larger retrospective research study into the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in New Zealand. Rules were assessed using pattern matching heuristics on routine clinical narrative. The system was trained using data from 623 clinical encounters and validated using a clinical expert as a gold standard against a mutually exclusive set of 901 records. We calculated a 98.2 % specificity and 90.2 % sensitivity across an ILI incidence of 12.4 % measured against clinical expert classification. Peak problem list identification of ILI by clinical coding in any month was 9.2 % of all detected ILI presentations. Our system addressed an unusual problem domain for clinical narrative classification; using notational, unstructured, clinician entered information in a community care setting. It performed well compared with other approaches and domains. It has potential applications in real-time surveillance of disease, and in assisted problem list coding for clinicians. Our system identified ILI presentation with sufficient accuracy for use at a population level in the wider research study. The peak coding of 9.2 % illustrated the need for automated coding of unstructured narrative in our study.

Prefrontal and parietal activity is modulated by the rule complexity of inductive reasoning and can be predicted by a cognitive model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Xiuqin; Liang, Peipeng; Shi, Lin; Wang, Defeng; Li, Kuncheng

2015-01-01

In neuroimaging studies, increased task complexity can lead to increased activation in task-specific regions or to activation of additional regions. How the brain adapts to increased rule complexity during inductive reasoning remains unclear. In the current study, three types of problems were created: simple rule induction (i.e., SI, with rule complexity of 1), complex rule induction (i.e., CI, with rule complexity of 2), and perceptual control. Our findings revealed that increased activations accompany increased rule complexity in the right dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and medial posterior parietal cortex (precuneus). A cognitive model predicted both the behavioral and brain imaging results. The current findings suggest that neural activity in frontal and parietal regions is modulated by rule complexity, which may shed light on the neural mechanisms of inductive reasoning. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mechanisms of rule acquisition and rule following in inductive reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Crescentini, Cristiano; Seyed-Allaei, Shima; De Pisapia, Nicola; Jovicich, Jorge; Amati, Daniele; Shallice, Tim

2011-05-25

Despite the recent interest in the neuroanatomy of inductive reasoning processes, the regional specificity within prefrontal cortex (PFC) for the different mechanisms involved in induction tasks remains to be determined. In this study, we used fMRI to investigate the contribution of PFC regions to rule acquisition (rule search and rule discovery) and rule following. Twenty-six healthy young adult participants were presented with a series of images of cards, each consisting of a set of circles numbered in sequence with one colored blue. Participants had to predict the position of the blue circle on the next card. The rules that had to be acquired pertained to the relationship among succeeding stimuli. Responses given by subjects were categorized in a series of phases either tapping rule acquisition (responses given up to and including rule discovery) or rule following (correct responses after rule acquisition). Mid-dorsolateral PFC (mid-DLPFC) was active during rule search and remained active until successful rule acquisition. By contrast, rule following was associated with activation in temporal, motor, and medial/anterior prefrontal cortex. Moreover, frontopolar cortex (FPC) was active throughout the rule acquisition and rule following phases before a rule became familiar. We attributed activation in mid-DLPFC to hypothesis generation and in FPC to integration of multiple separate inferences. The present study provides evidence that brain activation during inductive reasoning involves a complex network of frontal processes and that different subregions respond during rule acquisition and rule following phases.

External validation of a clinical scoring system for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

Aim: A prediction rule for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) could be helpful in early detection and increased efficiency of screening. A prediction rule by means of a clinical scoring system is available, but has never been validated externally. The aim of this study was to validate the scoring

Interpretable Predictive Models for Knowledge Discovery from Home-Care Electronic Health Records

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bonnie L. Westra

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this methodological study was to compare methods of developing predictive rules that are parsimonious and clinically interpretable from electronic health record (EHR home visit data, contrasting logistic regression with three data mining classification models. We address three problems commonly encountered in EHRs: the value of including clinically important variables with little variance, handling imbalanced datasets, and ease of interpretation of the resulting predictive models. Logistic regression and three classification models using Ripper, decision trees, and Support Vector Machines were applied to a case study for one outcome of improvement in oral medication management. Predictive rules for logistic regression, Ripper, and decision trees are reported and results compared using F-measures for data mining models and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for all models. The rules generated by the three classification models provide potentially novel insights into mining EHRs beyond those provided by standard logistic regression, and suggest steps for further study.

Correlation of clinical predictions and surgical results in maxillary superior repositioning.

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Tabrizi, Reza; Zamiri, Barbad; Kazemi, Hamidreza

2014-05-01

This is a prospective study to evaluate the accuracy of clinical predictions related to surgical results in subjects who underwent maxillary superior repositioning without anterior-posterior movement. Surgeons' predictions according to clinical (tooth show at rest and at the maximum smile) and cephalometric evaluation were documented for the amount of maxillary superior repositioning. Overcorrection or undercorrection was documented for every subject 1 year after the operations. Receiver operating characteristic curve test was used to find a cutoff point in prediction errors and to determine positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value. Forty subjects (14 males and 26 females) were studied. Results showed a significant difference between changes in the tooth show at rest and at the maximum smile line before and after surgery. Analysis of the data demonstrated no correlation between the predictive data and the surgical results. The incidence of undercorrection (25%) was more common than overcorrection (7.5%). The cutoff point for errors in predictions was 5 mm for tooth show at rest and 15 mm at the maximum smile. When the amount of the presurgical tooth show at rest was more than 5 mm, 50.5% of clinical predictions did not match the clinical results (PPV), and 75% of clinical predictions showed the same results when the tooth show was less than 5 mm (negative predictive value). When the amount of presurgical tooth shown in the maximum smile line was more than 15 mm, 75% of clinical predictions did not match with clinical results (PPV), and 25% of the predictions had the same results because the tooth show at the maximum smile was lower than 15 mm. Clinical predictions according to the tooth show at rest and at the maximum smile have a poor correlation with clinical results in maxillary superior repositioning for vertical maxillary excess. The risk of errors in predictions increased when the amount of superior repositioning of the maxilla increased

Rapid Rule-Out of Acute Myocardial Injury Using a Single High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Measurement.

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Sandoval, Yader; Smith, Stephen W; Shah, Anoop S V; Anand, Atul; Chapman, Andrew R; Love, Sara A; Schulz, Karen; Cao, Jing; Mills, Nicholas L; Apple, Fred S

2017-01-01

Rapid rule-out strategies using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays are largely supported by studies performed outside the US in selected cohorts of patients with chest pain that are atypical of US practice, and focused exclusively on ruling out acute myocardial infarction (AMI), rather than acute myocardial injury, which is more common and associated with a poor prognosis. Prospective, observational study of consecutive patients presenting to emergency departments [derivation (n = 1647) and validation (n = 2198) cohorts], where high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) was measured on clinical indication. The negative predictive value (NPV) and diagnostic sensitivity of an hs-cTnI concentration rules out acute myocardial injury, regardless of etiology, with an excellent NPV and diagnostic sensitivity, and identifies patients at minimal risk of AMI or cardiac death at 30 days. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02060760. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

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Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

2015-07-01

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

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Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

2016-07-01

The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Applicability of Alignment and Combination Rules to Burst Pressure Prediction of Multiple-flawed Steam Generator Tube

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Myeong Woo; Kim, Ji Seok; Kim, Yun Jae [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Jun Young [Doosan Heavy Industries and Consruction, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Dong Min [Korea Plant Service and Engineering, Technical Research and Development Institute, Naju (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

Alignment and combination rules are provided by various codes and standards. These rules are used to determine whether multiple flaws should be treated as non-aligned or as coplanar, and independent or combined flaws. Experimental results on steam generator (SG) tube specimens containing multiple axial part-through-wall (PTW) flaws at room temperature (RT) are compared with assessment results based on the alignment and combination rules of the codes and standards. In case of axial collinear flaws, ASME, JSME, and BS7910 treated multiple flaws as independent flaws and API 579, A16, and FKM treated multiple flaws as combined single flaw. Assessment results of combined flaws were conservative. In case of axial non-aligned flaws, almost flaws were aligned and assessment results well correlate with experimental data. In case of axial parallel flaws, both effective flaw lengths of aligned flaws and separated flaws was are same because of each flaw length were same. This study investigates the applicability of alignment and combination rules for multiple flaws on the failure behavior of Alloy 690TT steam generator (SG) tubes that widely used in the nuclear power plan. Experimental data of burst tests on Alloy 690TT tubes with single and multiple flaws that conducted at room temperature (RT) by Kim el al. compared with the alignment rules of these codes and standards. Burst pressure of SG tubes with flaws are predicted using limit load solutions that provide by EPRI Handbook.

Grooming a CAT: customizing CAT administration rules to increase response efficiency in specific research and clinical settings.

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Kallen, Michael A; Cook, Karon F; Amtmann, Dagmar; Knowlton, Elizabeth; Gershon, Richard C

2018-05-05

To evaluate the degree to which applying alternative stopping rules would reduce response burden while maintaining score precision in the context of computer adaptive testing (CAT). Analyses were conducted on secondary data comprised of CATs administered in a clinical setting at multiple time points (baseline and up to two follow ups) to 417 study participants who had back pain (51.3%) and/or depression (47.0%). Participant mean age was 51.3 years (SD = 17.2) and ranged from 18 to 86. Participants tended to be white (84.7%), relatively well educated (77% with at least some college), female (63.9%), and married or living in a committed relationship (57.4%). The unit of analysis was individual assessment histories (i.e., CAT item response histories) from the parent study. Data were first aggregated across all individuals, domains, and time points in an omnibus dataset of assessment histories and then were disaggregated by measure for domain-specific analyses. Finally, assessment histories within a "clinically relevant range" (score ≥ 1 SD from the mean in direction of poorer health) were analyzed separately to explore score level-specific findings. Two different sets of CAT administration rules were compared. The original CAT (CAT ORIG ) rules required at least four and no more than 12 items be administered. If the score standard error (SE) reached a value CAT was stopped. We simulated applying alternative stopping rules (CAT ALT ), removing the requirement that a minimum four items be administered, and stopped a CAT if responses to the first two items were both associated with best health, if the SE was CAT ORIG and CAT ALT . CAT ORIG and CAT ALT scores varied little, especially within the clinically relevant range, and response burden was substantially lower under CAT ALT (e.g., 41.2% savings in omnibus dataset). Alternate stopping rules result in substantial reductions in response burden with minimal sacrifice in score precision.

Central line-associated bloodstream infections and catheter dwell-time: A theoretical foundation for a rule of thumb.

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Voets, Philip J G M

2018-05-14

Many clinicians know from experience and medical epidemiological literature that the risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI) increases rapidly with a prolonged catheter dwell-time, but how this infection risk increases over time remains obscure. In this manuscript, a clinically useful rule of thumb is derived, stating that the risk of CLABSI increases in a quadratic fashion with the increase in catheter dwell-time. The proposed rule of thumb could be considered a quick and effortless clinical tool to rationally predict the pattern of CLABSI risk with an increasing catheter dwell-time. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Improved therapy-success prediction with GSS estimated from clinical HIV-1 sequences.

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Pironti, Alejandro; Pfeifer, Nico; Kaiser, Rolf; Walter, Hauke; Lengauer, Thomas

2014-01-01

Rules-based HIV-1 drug-resistance interpretation (DRI) systems disregard many amino-acid positions of the drug's target protein. The aims of this study are (1) the development of a drug-resistance interpretation system that is based on HIV-1 sequences from clinical practice rather than hard-to-get phenotypes, and (2) the assessment of the benefit of taking all available amino-acid positions into account for DRI. A dataset containing 34,934 therapy-naïve and 30,520 drug-exposed HIV-1 pol sequences with treatment history was extracted from the EuResist database and the Los Alamos National Laboratory database. 2,550 therapy-change-episode baseline sequences (TCEB) were assigned to test set A. Test set B contains 1,084 TCEB from the HIVdb TCE repository. Sequences from patients absent in the test sets were used to train three linear support vector machines to produce scores that predict drug exposure pertaining to each of 20 antiretrovirals: the first one uses the full amino-acid sequences (DEfull), the second one only considers IAS drug-resistance positions (DEonlyIAS), and the third one disregards IAS drug-resistance positions (DEnoIAS). For performance comparison, test sets A and B were evaluated with DEfull, DEnoIAS, DEonlyIAS, geno2pheno[resistance], HIVdb, ANRS, HIV-GRADE, and REGA. Clinically-validated cut-offs were used to convert the continuous output of the first four methods into susceptible-intermediate-resistant (SIR) predictions. With each method, a genetic susceptibility score (GSS) was calculated for each therapy episode in each test set by converting the SIR prediction for its compounds to integer: S=2, I=1, and R=0. The GSS were used to predict therapy success as defined by the EuResist standard datum definition. Statistical significance was assessed using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. A comparison of the therapy-success prediction performances among the different interpretation systems for test set A can be found in Table 1, while those for test set

A Clinical Prediction Model for Postcardiac Surgery Atrial Fibrillation in an Asian Population.

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Zhang, Wei; Liu, Weiling; Chew, Sophia T H; Shen, Liang; Ti, Lian Kah

2016-08-01

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, and resource utilization. Current prediction models for postoperative AF are based primarily on Western populations. In this study, we sought to develop a clinical prediction rule for postcardiac surgery AF for a multiethnic Asian population. Two thousand one hundred sixty-eight patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft or valve surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were prospectively enrolled in this observational study between August 2008 and July 2012 at Singapore's 2 national heart centers. Postoperative AF was defined as an irregularly irregular electrocardiogram rhythm without identifiable P wave after surgery and before hospital discharge that lasted more than an hour, or affected hemodynamics (ie, systolic blood pressure 120 minutes (OR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.47-2.52, P Chinese ethnicity (Chinese versus Indian OR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.28-3.41, P = 0.003) or Malay (Malay versus Indian OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.36-4.05, P = 0.002) to be independently associated with postoperative AF. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of the model was 0.704 (95% CI, 0.674-0.734). Internal validation produced an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.690-0.821). Clinical risk factors for AF after cardiac surgery in an Asian population are similar to that reported from primarily Western populations, but specific ethnicity influences susceptibility.

How the brain predicts people's behavior in relation to rules and desires. Evidence of a medio-prefrontal dissociation.

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Corradi-Dell'Acqua, Corrado; Turri, Francesco; Kaufmann, Laurence; Clément, Fabrice; Schwartz, Sophie

2015-09-01

Forming and updating impressions about others is critical in everyday life and engages portions of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dMPFC), the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and the amygdala. Some of these activations are attributed to "mentalizing" functions necessary to represent people's mental states, such as beliefs or desires. Evolutionary psychology and developmental studies, however, suggest that interpersonal inferences can also be obtained through the aid of deontic heuristics, which dictate what must (or must not) be done in given circumstances. We used fMRI and asked 18 participants to predict whether unknown characters would follow their desires or obey external rules. Participants had no means, at the beginning, to make accurate predictions, but slowly learned (throughout the experiment) each character's behavioral profile. We isolated brain regions whose activity changed during the experiment, as a neural signature of impression updating: whereas dMPFC was progressively more involved in predicting characters' behavior in relation to their desires, the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the amygdala were progressively more recruited in predicting rule-based behavior. Our data provide evidence of a neural dissociation between deontic inference and theory-of-mind (ToM), and support a differentiation of orbital and dorsal prefrontal cortex in terms of low- and high-level social cognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting higher selection in elite junior Australian Rules football: The influence of physical performance and anthropometric attributes.

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Robertson, Sam; Woods, Carl; Gastin, Paul

2015-09-01

To develop a physiological performance and anthropometric attribute model to predict Australian Football League draft selection. Cross-sectional observational. Data was obtained (n=4902) from three Under-18 Australian football competitions between 2010 and 2013. Players were allocated into one of the three groups, based on their highest level of selection in their final year of junior football (Australian Football League Drafted, n=292; National Championship, n=293; State-level club, n=4317). Physiological performance (vertical jumps, agility, speed and running endurance) and anthropometric (body mass and height) data were obtained. Hedge's effect sizes were calculated to assess the influence of selection-level and competition on these physical attributes, with logistic regression models constructed to discriminate Australian Football League Drafted and National Championship players. Rule induction analysis was undertaken to determine a set of rules for discriminating selection-level. Effect size comparisons revealed a range of small to moderate differences between State-level club players and both other groups for all attributes, with trivial to small differences between Australian Football League Drafted and National Championship players noted. Logistic regression models showed multistage fitness test, height and 20 m sprint time as the most important attributes in predicting Draft success. Rule induction analysis showed that players displaying multistage fitness test scores of >14.01 and/or 20 m sprint times of football players being recruited to the highest level of the sport. Copyright © 2014 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insuring Care: Paperwork, Insurance Rules, and Clinical Labor at a U.S. Transgender Clinic.

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van Eijk, Marieke

2017-12-01

What is a clinician to do when people needing medical care do not have access to consistent or sufficient health insurance coverage and cannot pay for care privately? Analyzing ethnographically how clinicians at a university-based transgender clinic in the United States responded to this challenge, I examine the U.S. health insurance system, insurance paperwork, and administrative procedures that shape transgender care delivery. To buffer the impact of the system's failure to provide sufficient health insurance coverage for transgender care, clinicians blended administrative routines with psychological therapy, counseled people's minds and finances, and leveraged the prestige of their clinic in attempts to create space for gender nonconforming embodiments in gender conservative insurance policies. My analysis demonstrates that in a market-based health insurance system with multiple payers and gender binary insurance rules, health care may be unaffordable, or remain financially challenging, even for transgender people with health insurance. Moreover, insurance carriers' "reliance" on clinicians' insurance-related labor is problematic as it exacerbates existing insurance barriers to the accessibility and affordability of transgender care and obscures the workings of a financial payment model that prioritizes economic expediency over gender nonconforming health.

Modifications to the HIPAA Privacy, Security, Enforcement, and Breach Notification rules under the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act and the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act; other modifications to the HIPAA rules.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-25

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS or ``the Department'') is issuing this final rule to: Modify the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy, Security, and Enforcement Rules to implement statutory amendments under the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (``the HITECH Act'' or ``the Act'') to strengthen the privacy and security protection for individuals' health information; modify the rule for Breach Notification for Unsecured Protected Health Information (Breach Notification Rule) under the HITECH Act to address public comment received on the interim final rule; modify the HIPAA Privacy Rule to strengthen the privacy protections for genetic information by implementing section 105 of Title I of the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008 (GINA); and make certain other modifications to the HIPAA Privacy, Security, Breach Notification, and Enforcement Rules (the HIPAA Rules) to improve their workability and effectiveness and to increase flexibility for and decrease burden on the regulated entities.

Clinical impression and ascites appearance do not rule out bacterial peritonitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Chinnock, Brian; Hendey, Gregory W; Minnigan, Hal; Butler, Jack; Afarian, Hagop

2013-05-01

Previous research has demonstrated that physician clinical suspicion, determined without assessing fluid appearance, is not adequate to rule out spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) without fluid testing. To determine the sensitivity of physician clinical suspicion, including a bedside assessment of fluid appearance, in the detection of SBP in Emergency Department (ED) patients undergoing paracentesis. We conducted a prospective, observational study of ED patients with ascites undergoing paracentesis at three academic facilities. The enrolling physician recorded the clinical suspicion of SBP ("none," "low," "moderate," or "high"), and ascites appearance ("clear," "hazy," "cloudy," or "bloody"). SBP was defined as an absolute neutrophil count ≥ 250 cells/mm(3), or culture pathogen growth. We defined "clear" ascites fluid as negative for SBP, and "hazy," "cloudy," or "bloody" as positive. A physician clinical suspicion of "none" or "low" was considered negative for SBP, and an assessment of "moderate" or "high" was considered positive. The primary outcome measure was sensitivity of physician clinical impression and ascites appearance for SBP. There were 348 cases enrolled, with SBP diagnosed in 43 (12%). Physician clinical suspicion had a sensitivity of 42% (95% confidence interval [CI] 29-55%) for the detection of SBP. Fluid appearance had a sensitivity of 72% (95% CI 58-83%). Physician clinical impression, which included an assessment of fluid appearance, had poor sensitivity for the detection of SBP and cannot be used to exclude the diagnosis. Routine laboratory fluid analysis is indicated after ED paracentesis, even in patients considered to have a low degree of suspicion for SBP. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children (DUTY) Study Clinical Rule: Economic Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingworth, William; Busby, John; Butler, Christopher C; O'Brien, Kathryn; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Hood, Kerenza; Little, Paul; Lawton, Michael; Birnie, Kate; Thomas-Jones, Emma; Harman, Kim; Hay, Alastair D

2017-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a two-step clinical rule using symptoms, signs and dipstick testing to guide the diagnosis and antibiotic treatment of urinary tract infection (UTI) in acutely unwell young children presenting to primary care. Decision analytic model synthesising data from a multicentre, prospective cohort study (DUTY) and the wider literature to estimate the short-term and lifetime costs and healthcare outcomes (symptomatic days, recurrent UTI, quality adjusted life years) of eight diagnostic strategies. We compared GP clinical judgement with three strategies based on a 'coefficient score' combining seven symptoms and signs independently associated with UTI and four strategies based on weighted scores according to the presence/absence of five symptoms and signs. We compared dipstick testing versus laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI. Sampling, culture and antibiotic costs were lowest in high-specificity DUTY strategies (£1.22 and £1.08) compared to clinical judgement (£1.99). These strategies also approximately halved urine sampling (4.8% versus 9.1% in clinical judgement) without reducing sensitivity (58.2% versus 56.4%). Outcomes were very similar across all diagnostic strategies. High-specificity DUTY strategies were more cost-effective than clinical judgement in the short- (iNMB = £0.78 and £0.84) and long-term (iNMB =£2.31 and £2.50). Dipstick tests had poorer cost-effectiveness than laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI (iNMB = £-1.41). Compared to GPs' clinical judgement, high specificity clinical rules from the DUTY study could substantially reduce urine sampling, achieving lower costs and equivalent patient outcomes. Dipstick testing children for UTI is not cost-effective. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognosis of patients with nonspecific neck pain: development and external validation of a prediction rule for persistence of complaints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schellingerhout, J.M.; Heijmans, M.W.; Verhagen, A.P.; Lewis, M.; de Vet, H.C.W.; Koes, B.W.

2010-01-01

Study Design.: Reanalysis of data from 3 randomized controlled trials. Objective.: Development and validation of a prediction rule that estimates the probability of complaints persisting for at least 6 months in patients presenting with nonspecific neck pain in primary care. Sumary of Background

Development and validation of a measure of display rule knowledge: the display rule assessment inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, David; Yoo, Seung Hee; Hirayama, Satoko; Petrova, Galina

2005-03-01

As one component of emotion regulation, display rules, which reflect the regulation of expressive behavior, have been the topic of many studies. Despite their theoretical and empirical importance, however, to date there is no measure of display rules that assesses a full range of behavioral responses that are theoretically possible when emotion is elicited. This article reports the development of a new measure of display rules that surveys 5 expressive modes: expression, deamplification, amplification, qualification, and masking. Two studies provide evidence for its internal and temporal reliability and for its content, convergent, discriminant, external, and concurrent predictive validity. Additionally, Study 1, involving American, Russian, and Japanese participants, demonstrated predictable cultural differences on each of the expressive modes. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

Comparison of statistical and clinical predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Douglas D Thompson

Full Text Available To determine whether the predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke made at the bedside using a doctor's clinical experience were more or less accurate than the predictions made by clinical prediction models (CPMs.A prospective cohort study of nine hundred and thirty one ischemic stroke patients recruited consecutively at the outpatient, inpatient and emergency departments of the Western General Hospital, Edinburgh between 2002 and 2005. Doctors made informal predictions of six month functional outcome on the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS. Patients were followed up at six months with a validated postal questionnaire. For each patient we calculated the absolute predicted risk of death or dependence (OHS≥3 using five previously described CPMs. The specificity of a doctor's informal predictions of OHS≥3 at six months was good 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.97 and similar to CPMs (range 0.94 to 0.96; however the sensitivity of both informal clinical predictions 0.44 (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.49 and clinical prediction models (range 0.38 to 0.45 was poor. The prediction of the level of disability after stroke was similar for informal clinical predictions (ordinal c-statistic 0.74 with 95% CI 0.72 to 0.76 and CPMs (range 0.69 to 0.75. No patient or clinician characteristic affected the accuracy of informal predictions, though predictions were more accurate in outpatients.CPMs are at least as good as informal clinical predictions in discriminating between good and bad functional outcome after ischemic stroke. The place of these models in clinical practice has yet to be determined.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are traditional cognitive tests useful in predicting clinical success?

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Sarah A; Deem, Lisa P; Straja, Sorin R

2002-11-01

The purpose of this research was to determine the predictive value of the Dental Admission Test (DAT) for clinical success using Ackerman's theory of ability determinants of skilled performance. The Ackerman theory is a valid, reliable schema in the applied psychology literature used to predict complex skill acquisition. Inconsistent stimulus-response skill acquisition depends primarily on determinants of cognitive ability. Consistent information-processing tasks have been described as "automatic," in which stimuli and responses are mapped in a manner that allows for complete certainty once the relationships have been learned. It is theorized that the skills necessary for success in the clinical component of dental schools involve a significant amount of automatic processing demands and, as such, student performance in the clinics should begin to converge as task practice is realized and tasks become more consistent. Subtest scores of the DAT of four classes were correlated with final grades in nine clinical courses. Results showed that the DAT subtest scores played virtually no role with regard to the final clinical grades. Based on this information, the DAT scores were determined to be of no predictive value in clinical achievement.

Leveraging electronic health records for predictive modeling of post-surgical complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, Grant B; Lovely, Jenna; Larson, David W; Earnshaw, Berton A; Huebner, Marianne

2017-01-01

Hospital-specific electronic health record systems are used to inform clinical practice about best practices and quality improvements. Many surgical centers have developed deterministic clinical decision rules to discover adverse events (e.g. postoperative complications) using electronic health record data. However, these data provide opportunities to use probabilistic methods for early prediction of adverse health events, which may be more informative than deterministic algorithms. Electronic health record data from a set of 9598 colorectal surgery cases from 2010 to 2014 were used to predict the occurrence of selected complications including surgical site infection, ileus, and bleeding. Consistent with previous studies, we find a high rate of missing values for both covariates and complication information (4-90%). Several machine learning classification methods are trained on an 80% random sample of cases and tested on a remaining holdout set. Predictive performance varies by complication, although an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as high as 0.86 on testing data was achieved for bleeding complications, and accuracy for all complications compares favorably to existing clinical decision rules. Our results confirm that electronic health records provide opportunities for improved risk prediction of surgical complications; however, consideration of data quality and consistency standards is an important step in predictive modeling with such data.

The efficiency of the RULES-4 classification learning algorithm in predicting the density of agents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ziad Salem

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Learning is the act of obtaining new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviours, skills or preferences. The ability to learn is found in humans, other organisms and some machines. Learning is always based on some sort of observations or data such as examples, direct experience or instruction. This paper presents a classification algorithm to learn the density of agents in an arena based on the measurements of six proximity sensors of a combined actuator sensor units (CASUs. Rules are presented that were induced by the learning algorithm that was trained with data-sets based on the CASU’s sensor data streams collected during a number of experiments with “Bristlebots (agents in the arena (environment”. It was found that a set of rules generated by the learning algorithm is able to predict the number of bristlebots in the arena based on the CASU’s sensor readings with satisfying accuracy.

Predictive genomics: A cancer hallmark network framework for predicting tumor clinical phenotypes using genome sequencing data

OpenAIRE

Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor, Maureen

2014-01-01

We discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modelling genome-sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. Strategies of using this framework in conjunction with genome sequencing data in an attempt to predict personalized drug targets, drug resistance, and metastasis for a cancer patient, as well as cancer risks for a healthy individual are discussed. Accurate prediction of cancer clonal evolution and clinical phenotypes will have substantial i...

Excusing exclusion: Accounting for rule-breaking and sanctions in a Swedish methadone clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersson, Frida J M

2013-11-01

Methadone maintenance treatment has been subjected to much debate and controversy in Sweden during the last decades. Thresholds for getting access are high and control policies strict within the programmes. This article analyses how professionals working in a Swedish methadone clinic discuss and decide on appropriate responses to clients' rule-breaking behaviour. The research data consist of field notes from observations of three interprofessional team meetings where different clients' illicit drug use is discussed. A micro-sociological approach and accounts analysis was applied to the data. During their decision-oriented talk at the meetings, the professionals account for: (1) sanctions, (2) nonsanction, (3) mildness. In accounting for (2) and (3), they also account for clients' rule-breaking behaviour. Analysis shows how these ways of accounting are concerned with locating blame and responsibility for the act in question, as well as with constructing excuses and justifications for the clients and for the professionals themselves. In general, these results demonstrate that maintenance treatment in everyday professional decision-making, far from being a neutral evidence-based practice, involves a substantial amount of professional discretion and moral judgements. Sanctions are chosen according to the way in which a deviance from the rules is explained and, in doing so, a certain behaviour is deemed to be serious, dangerous and unacceptable - or excusable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rule Induction-Based Knowledge Discovery for Energy Efficiency

OpenAIRE

Chen, Qipeng; Fan, Zhong; Kaleshi, Dritan; Armour, Simon M D

2015-01-01

Rule induction is a practical approach to knowledge discovery. Provided that a problem is developed, rule induction is able to return the knowledge that addresses the goal of this problem as if-then rules. The primary goals of knowledge discovery are for prediction and description. The rule format knowledge representation is easily understandable so as to enable users to make decisions. This paper presents the potential of rule induction for energy efficiency. In particular, three rule induct...

Prediction of high pressure vapor-liquid equilibria with mixing rule using ASOG group contribution method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tochigi, K.; Kojima, K.; Kurihara, K.

1985-02-01

To develop a widely applicable method for predicting high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibria by the equation of state, a mixing rule is proposed in which mixture energy parameter ''..cap alpha..'' of theSoave-RedlichKwong, Peng-Robinson, and Martin cubic equations of state is expressed by using the ASOG group contribution method. The group pair parameters are then determined for 14 group pairs constituted by six groups, i.e. CH/sub 4/, CH/sub 3/, CH/sub 2/, N/sub 2/, H/sub 2/, and CO/sub 2/ groups. By using the group pair parameters determined, high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibria are predicted with good accuracy for binary and ternary systems constituted by n-paraffins, nitrogen, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide in the temperature range of 100 - 450K.

A new model and extension of Wong-Sandler mixing rule for prediction of (vapour + liquid) equilibrium of polymer solutions using EOS/GE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haghtalab, Ali; Espanani, Reza

2004-01-01

The cubic equation of state (CEOS) is a powerful method for calculation of (vapour + liquid) equilibrium (VLE) in polymer solutions. Using CEOS for both the vapour and liquid phases allows one to calculate the non-ideality of polymer solutions based on a single EOS approach. However, the traditional mixing rules are not appropriate to extend the CEOS to non-ideal mixtures such as polymer solutions. Several authors have applied the EOS/G E approach to predict (vapour + liquid) equilibria in polymer solutions, however, incorporating an appropriate excess Gibbs free energy for the new mixing rule is a major step. In this research, the NRTL-NRF model was extended in terms of volume fraction of polymer and solvent (instead of mole fraction), then equilibrium calculations were carried out using PRSV EOS and Wong-Sandler mixing rules. Using the adjustable parameters as a function of solution temperature, the NRTL-NRF model can be used as a predictive model. In comparison with NRTL model, the results of the new NRTL-NRF model show better accuracy

The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness.

Science.gov (United States)

1985-05-01

8217 8 ings. Szasz (1963) has argued persuasively that clinical predictions of future dangerous behavior are unfairly focused on the mentally ill...Persons labeled paranoid, Szasz states, are readily commitable, while highly dangerous drunken drivers are not. Indeed, dangerousness such as that...Psychology, 31, 492-494. Szasz , T. (1963). Law, liberty and psychiatry. New York: Macmillan. Taft, R. (1955). The ability to judge people. Psychological

Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network head injuryprediction rules: on the basis of cost and effectiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Gökharman, Fatma Dilek; Aydın, Sonay; Fatihoğlu, Erdem; Koşar, Pınar Nercis

2017-12-19

Background/aim: Head injuries are commonly seen in the pediatric population. Noncontrast enhanced cranial CT is the method of choice to detect possible traumatic brain injury (TBI). Concerns about ionizing radiation exposure make the evaluation more challenging. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rules in predicting clinically important TBI and to determine the amount of medical resource waste and unnecessary radiation exposure.Materials and methods: This retrospective study included 1041 pediatric patients presented to the emergency department. The patients were divided into subgroups of "appropriate for cranial CT", "not appropriate for cranial CT" and "cranial CT/observation of patient; both are appropriate". To determine the effectiveness of the PECARN rules, data were analyzed according to the presence of pathological findings Results: "Appropriate for cranial CT" results can predict pathology presence 118,056-fold compared to the "not appropriate for cranial CT" results. With "cranial CT/observation of patient; both are appropriate" results, pathology presence was predicted 11,457-fold compared to "not appropriate for cranial CT" results.Conclusion: PECARN rules can predict pathology presence successfully in pediatric TBI. Using PECARN can decrease resource waste and exposure to ionizing radiation.

Does GEM-Encoding Clinical Practice Guidelines Improve the Quality of Knowledge Bases? A Study with the Rule-Based Formalism

Science.gov (United States)

Georg, Gersende; Séroussi, Brigitte; Bouaud, Jacques

2003-01-01

The aim of this work was to determine whether the GEM-encoding step could improve the representation of clinical practice guidelines as formalized knowledge bases. We used the 1999 Canadian recommendations for the management of hypertension, chosen as the knowledge source in the ASTI project. We first clarified semantic ambiguities of therapeutic sequences recommended in the guideline by proposing an interpretative framework of therapeutic strategies. Then, after a formalization step to standardize the terms used to characterize clinical situations, we created the GEM-encoded instance of the guideline. We developed a module for the automatic derivation of a rule base, BR-GEM, from the instance. BR-GEM was then compared to the rule base, BR-ASTI, embedded within the critic mode of ASTI, and manually built by two physicians from the same Canadian guideline. As compared to BR-ASTI, BR-GEM is more specific and covers more clinical situations. When evaluated on 10 patient cases, the GEM-based approach led to promising results. PMID:14728173

Does GEM-encoding clinical practice guidelines improve the quality of knowledge bases? A study with the rule-based formalism.

Science.gov (United States)

Georg, Georg; Séroussi, Brigitte; Bouaud, Jacques

2003-01-01

The aim of this work was to determine whether the GEM-encoding step could improve the representation of clinical practice guidelines as formalized knowledge bases. We used the 1999 Canadian recommendations for the management of hypertension, chosen as the knowledge source in the ASTI project. We first clarified semantic ambiguities of therapeutic sequences recommended in the guideline by proposing an interpretative framework of therapeutic strategies. Then, after a formalization step to standardize the terms used to characterize clinical situations, we created the GEM-encoded instance of the guideline. We developed a module for the automatic derivation of a rule base, BR-GEM, from the instance. BR-GEM was then compared to the rule base, BR-ASTI, embedded within the critic mode of ASTI, and manually built by two physicians from the same Canadian guideline. As compared to BR-ASTI, BR-GEM is more specific and covers more clinical situations. When evaluated on 10 patient cases, the GEM-based approach led to promising results.

Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

Science.gov (United States)

Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

1996-01-01

The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2014-01-01

Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive

Prediction of Metabolic Pathway Involvement in Prokaryotic UniProtKB Data by Association Rule Mining

KAUST Repository

Boudellioua, Imene; Saidi, Rabie; Hoehndorf, Robert; Martin, Maria J.; Solovyev, Victor

2016-01-01

The widening gap between known proteins and their functions has encouraged the development of methods to automatically infer annotations. Automatic functional annotation of proteins is expected to meet the conflicting requirements of maximizing annotation coverage, while minimizing erroneous functional assignments. This trade-off imposes a great challenge in designing intelligent systems to tackle the problem of automatic protein annotation. In this work, we present a system that utilizes rule mining techniques to predict metabolic pathways in prokaryotes. The resulting knowledge represents predictive models that assign pathway involvement to UniProtKB entries. We carried out an evaluation study of our system performance using cross-validation technique. We found that it achieved very promising results in pathway identification with an F1-measure of 0.982 and an AUC of 0.987. Our prediction models were then successfully applied to 6.2 million UniProtKB/TrEMBL reference proteome entries of prokaryotes. As a result, 663,724 entries were covered, where 436,510 of them lacked any previous pathway annotations.

Prediction of Metabolic Pathway Involvement in Prokaryotic UniProtKB Data by Association Rule Mining

KAUST Repository

Boudellioua, Imene

2016-07-08

The widening gap between known proteins and their functions has encouraged the development of methods to automatically infer annotations. Automatic functional annotation of proteins is expected to meet the conflicting requirements of maximizing annotation coverage, while minimizing erroneous functional assignments. This trade-off imposes a great challenge in designing intelligent systems to tackle the problem of automatic protein annotation. In this work, we present a system that utilizes rule mining techniques to predict metabolic pathways in prokaryotes. The resulting knowledge represents predictive models that assign pathway involvement to UniProtKB entries. We carried out an evaluation study of our system performance using cross-validation technique. We found that it achieved very promising results in pathway identification with an F1-measure of 0.982 and an AUC of 0.987. Our prediction models were then successfully applied to 6.2 million UniProtKB/TrEMBL reference proteome entries of prokaryotes. As a result, 663,724 entries were covered, where 436,510 of them lacked any previous pathway annotations.

Ruling Out Pulmonary Embolism in Primary Care: Comparison of the Diagnostic Performance of "Gestalt" and the Wells Rule

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendriksen, Janneke M. T.; Lucassen, Wim A. M.; Erkens, Petra M. G.; Stoffers, Henri E. J. H.; van Weert, Henk C. P. M.; Büller, Harry R.; Hoes, Arno W.; Moons, Karel G. M.; Geersing, Geert-Jan

2016-01-01

Diagnostic prediction models such as the Wells rule can be used for safely ruling out pulmonary embolism (PE) when it is suspected. A physician's own probability estimate ("gestalt"), however, is commonly used instead. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of both approaches in primary care.

Life fraction rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maile, K.

1989-01-01

Evaluations for lifetime estimation of high temperature loaded HTR-components under creep fatigue load had been performed. The evaluations were carried out on the basis of experimental data of strain controlled fatigue tests with respectively without hold times performed on material NiCr 22 Co 12 Mo (Inconel 617). Life prediction was made by means of the linear damage accumulation rule. Due to the high temperatures no realistic estimates of creep damage can be obtained with this rule. Therefore the rule was modified. The modifications consist in a different analysis of the relaxation curve including different calculation of the creep damage estimate resp. in an extended rule, taking into consideration the interaction between creep and fatigue. In order to reach a better result transparency and to reduce data set dependent result scattering a round robin with a given data set was carried out. The round robin yielded that for a given test temperature of T = 950deg C realistic estimate of damage can be obtained with each modification. Furthermore a reduction of resulting scatterbands in the interaction diagram can be observed, i.e. the practicability of the rule has been increased. (orig.)

Comparison of RNA-seq and microarray-based models for clinical endpoint prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wenqian; Yu, Ying; Hertwig, Falk; Thierry-Mieg, Jean; Zhang, Wenwei; Thierry-Mieg, Danielle; Wang, Jian; Furlanello, Cesare; Devanarayan, Viswanath; Cheng, Jie; Deng, Youping; Hero, Barbara; Hong, Huixiao; Jia, Meiwen; Li, Li; Lin, Simon M; Nikolsky, Yuri; Oberthuer, André; Qing, Tao; Su, Zhenqiang; Volland, Ruth; Wang, Charles; Wang, May D; Ai, Junmei; Albanese, Davide; Asgharzadeh, Shahab; Avigad, Smadar; Bao, Wenjun; Bessarabova, Marina; Brilliant, Murray H; Brors, Benedikt; Chierici, Marco; Chu, Tzu-Ming; Zhang, Jibin; Grundy, Richard G; He, Min Max; Hebbring, Scott; Kaufman, Howard L; Lababidi, Samir; Lancashire, Lee J; Li, Yan; Lu, Xin X; Luo, Heng; Ma, Xiwen; Ning, Baitang; Noguera, Rosa; Peifer, Martin; Phan, John H; Roels, Frederik; Rosswog, Carolina; Shao, Susan; Shen, Jie; Theissen, Jessica; Tonini, Gian Paolo; Vandesompele, Jo; Wu, Po-Yen; Xiao, Wenzhong; Xu, Joshua; Xu, Weihong; Xuan, Jiekun; Yang, Yong; Ye, Zhan; Dong, Zirui; Zhang, Ke K; Yin, Ye; Zhao, Chen; Zheng, Yuanting; Wolfinger, Russell D; Shi, Tieliu; Malkas, Linda H; Berthold, Frank; Wang, Jun; Tong, Weida; Shi, Leming; Peng, Zhiyu; Fischer, Matthias

2015-06-25

Gene expression profiling is being widely applied in cancer research to identify biomarkers for clinical endpoint prediction. Since RNA-seq provides a powerful tool for transcriptome-based applications beyond the limitations of microarrays, we sought to systematically evaluate the performance of RNA-seq-based and microarray-based classifiers in this MAQC-III/SEQC study for clinical endpoint prediction using neuroblastoma as a model. We generate gene expression profiles from 498 primary neuroblastomas using both RNA-seq and 44 k microarrays. Characterization of the neuroblastoma transcriptome by RNA-seq reveals that more than 48,000 genes and 200,000 transcripts are being expressed in this malignancy. We also find that RNA-seq provides much more detailed information on specific transcript expression patterns in clinico-genetic neuroblastoma subgroups than microarrays. To systematically compare the power of RNA-seq and microarray-based models in predicting clinical endpoints, we divide the cohort randomly into training and validation sets and develop 360 predictive models on six clinical endpoints of varying predictability. Evaluation of factors potentially affecting model performances reveals that prediction accuracies are most strongly influenced by the nature of the clinical endpoint, whereas technological platforms (RNA-seq vs. microarrays), RNA-seq data analysis pipelines, and feature levels (gene vs. transcript vs. exon-junction level) do not significantly affect performances of the models. We demonstrate that RNA-seq outperforms microarrays in determining the transcriptomic characteristics of cancer, while RNA-seq and microarray-based models perform similarly in clinical endpoint prediction. Our findings may be valuable to guide future studies on the development of gene expression-based predictive models and their implementation in clinical practice.

Predictions of the spontaneous symmetry-breaking theory for visual code completeness and spatial scaling in single-cell learning rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Webber, C J

2001-05-01

This article shows analytically that single-cell learning rules that give rise to oriented and localized receptive fields, when their synaptic weights are randomly and independently initialized according to a plausible assumption of zero prior information, will generate visual codes that are invariant under two-dimensional translations, rotations, and scale magnifications, provided that the statistics of their training images are sufficiently invariant under these transformations. Such codes span different image locations, orientations, and size scales with equal economy. Thus, single-cell rules could account for the spatial scaling property of the cortical simple-cell code. This prediction is tested computationally by training with natural scenes; it is demonstrated that a single-cell learning rule can give rise to simple-cell receptive fields spanning the full range of orientations, image locations, and spatial frequencies (except at the extreme high and low frequencies at which the scale invariance of the statistics of digitally sampled images must ultimately break down, because of the image boundary and the finite pixel resolution). Thus, no constraint on completeness, or any other coupling between cells, is necessary to induce the visual code to span wide ranges of locations, orientations, and size scales. This prediction is made using the theory of spontaneous symmetry breaking, which we have previously shown can also explain the data-driven self-organization of a wide variety of transformation invariances in neurons' responses, such as the translation invariance of complex cell response.

Imbalanced target prediction with pattern discovery on clinical data repositories.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Tak-Ming; Li, Yuxi; Chiau, Choo-Chiap; Zhu, Jane; Jiang, Jie; Huo, Yong

2017-04-20

Clinical data repositories (CDR) have great potential to improve outcome prediction and risk modeling. However, most clinical studies require careful study design, dedicated data collection efforts, and sophisticated modeling techniques before a hypothesis can be tested. We aim to bridge this gap, so that clinical domain users can perform first-hand prediction on existing repository data without complicated handling, and obtain insightful patterns of imbalanced targets for a formal study before it is conducted. We specifically target for interpretability for domain users where the model can be conveniently explained and applied in clinical practice. We propose an interpretable pattern model which is noise (missing) tolerant for practice data. To address the challenge of imbalanced targets of interest in clinical research, e.g., deaths less than a few percent, the geometric mean of sensitivity and specificity (G-mean) optimization criterion is employed, with which a simple but effective heuristic algorithm is developed. We compared pattern discovery to clinically interpretable methods on two retrospective clinical datasets. They contain 14.9% deaths in 1 year in the thoracic dataset and 9.1% deaths in the cardiac dataset, respectively. In spite of the imbalance challenge shown on other methods, pattern discovery consistently shows competitive cross-validated prediction performance. Compared to logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, and decision tree, pattern discovery achieves statistically significant (p-values repositories with imbalance and noise. The prediction results and interpretable patterns can provide insights in an agile and inexpensive way for the potential formal studies.

What predicts performance during clinical psychology training?

OpenAIRE

Scior, Katrina; Bradley, Caroline E; Potts, Henry W W; Woolf, Katherine; de C Williams, Amanda C

2013-01-01

Objectives While the question of who is likely to be selected for clinical psychology training has been studied, evidence on performance during training is scant. This study explored data from seven consecutive intakes of the UK's largest clinical psychology training course, aiming to identify what factors predict better or poorer outcomes. Design Longitudinal cross-sectional study using prospective and retrospective data. Method Characteristics at application were analysed in relation to a r...

Sanitizing sensitive association rules using fuzzy correlation scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hameed, S.; Shahzad, F.; Asghar, S.

2013-01-01

Data mining is used to extract useful information hidden in the data. Sometimes this extraction of information leads to revealing sensitive information. Privacy preservation in Data Mining is a process of sanitizing sensitive information. This research focuses on sanitizing sensitive rules discovered in quantitative data. The proposed scheme, Privacy Preserving in Fuzzy Association Rules (PPFAR) is based on fuzzy correlation analysis. In this work, fuzzy set concept is integrated with fuzzy correlation analysis and Apriori algorithm to mark interesting fuzzy association rules. The identified rules are called sensitive. For sanitization, we use modification technique where we substitute maximum value of fuzzy items with zero, which occurs most frequently. Experiments demonstrate that PPFAR method hides sensitive rules with minimum modifications. The technique also maintains the modified data's quality. The PPFAR scheme has applications in various domains e.g. temperature control, medical analysis, travel time prediction, genetic behavior prediction etc. We have validated the results on medical dataset. (author)

An algorithm for rule-in and rule-out of acute myocardial infarction using a novel troponin I assay.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindahl, Bertil; Jernberg, Tomas; Badertscher, Patrick; Boeddinghaus, Jasper; Eggers, Kai M; Frick, Mats; Rubini Gimenez, Maria; Linder, Rickard; Ljung, Lina; Martinsson, Arne; Melki, Dina; Nestelberger, Thomas; Rentsch, Katharina; Reichlin, Tobias; Sabti, Zaid; Schubera, Marie; Svensson, Per; Twerenbold, Raphael; Wildi, Karin; Mueller, Christian

2017-01-15

To derive and validate a hybrid algorithm for rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction based on measurements at presentation and after 2 hours with a novel cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay. The algorithm was derived and validated in two cohorts (605 and 592 patients) from multicentre studies enrolling chest pain patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with onset of last episode within 12 hours. The index diagnosis and cardiovascular events up to 30 days were adjudicated by independent reviewers. In the validation cohort, 32.6% of the patients were ruled out on ED presentation, 6.1% were ruled in and 61.3% remained undetermined. A further 22% could be ruled out and 9.8% ruled in, after 2 hours. In total, 54.6% of the patients were ruled out with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.4% (95% CI 97.8% to 99.9%) and a sensitivity of 97.7% (95% CI 91.9% to 99.7%); 15.8% were ruled in with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 74.5% (95% CI 64.8% to 82.2%) and a specificity of 95.2% (95% CI 93.0% to 96.9%); and 29.6% remained undetermined after 2 hours. No patient in the rule-out group died during the 30-day follow-up in the two cohorts. This novel two-step algorithm based on cTnI measurements enabled just over a third of the patients with acute chest pain to be ruled in or ruled out already at presentation and an additional third after 2 hours. This strategy maximises the speed of rule-out and rule-in while maintaining a high NPV and PPV, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Change-Point Detection Method for Clinical Decision Support System Rule Monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Siqi; Wright, Adam; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-06-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) and its components can malfunction due to various reasons. Monitoring the system and detecting its malfunctions can help one to avoid any potential mistakes and associated costs. In this paper, we investigate the problem of detecting changes in the CDSS operation, in particular its monitoring and alerting subsystem, by monitoring its rule firing counts. The detection should be performed online, that is whenever a new datum arrives, we want to have a score indicating how likely there is a change in the system. We develop a new method based on Seasonal-Trend decomposition and likelihood ratio statistics to detect the changes. Experiments on real and simulated data show that our method has a lower delay in detection compared with existing change-point detection methods.

Clinical prediction and diagnosis of neurosyphilis in HIV-infected patients with early Syphilis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumaresq, Jeannot; Langevin, Stéphanie; Gagnon, Simon; Serhir, Bouchra; Deligne, Benoît; Tremblay, Cécile; Tsang, Raymond S W; Fortin, Claude; Coutlée, François; Roger, Michel

2013-12-01

The diagnosis of neurosyphilis (NS) is a challenge, especially in HIV-infected patients, and the criteria for deciding when to perform a lumbar puncture (LP) in HIV-infected patients with syphilis are controversial. We retrospectively reviewed demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 122 cases of HIV-infected patients with documented early syphilis who underwent an LP to rule out NS, and we evaluated 3 laboratory-developed validated real-time PCR assays, the Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TPPA) assay, the fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption (FTA-ABS) assay, and the line immunoassay INNO-LIA Syphilis, for the diagnosis of NS from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples of these patients. NS was defined by a reactive CSF-VDRL test result and/or a CSF white blood cell (WBC) count of >20 cells/μl. Thirty of the 122 patients (24.6%) had early NS. Headache, visual symptoms, a CD4 cell count of FTA-ABS, TPPA, and INNO-LIA assays had sensitivities of 58%, 100%, 68%, and 100%, specificities of 67%, 12%, 49%, and 13%, and negative predictive values of 85%, 100%, 84%, and 100%, respectively. Visual disturbances, headache, uncontrolled HIV-1 viremia, and a CD4 cell count of <500 cells/μl were predictors of NS in HIV-infected patients with early syphilis, while blood serum RPR titers were not; therefore, RPR titers should not be used as the sole criterion for deciding whether to perform an LP in early syphilis. When applied to CSF samples, the INNO-LIA Syphilis assay easily helped rule out NS.

Clinical manifestations that predict abnormal brain computed tomography (CT in children with minor head injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesrin Alharthy

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Computed tomography (CT used in pediatric pediatrics brain injury (TBI to ascertain neurological manifestations. Nevertheless, this practice is associated with adverse effects. Reports in the literature suggest incidents of morbidity and mortality in children due to exposure to radiation. Hence, it is found imperative to search for a reliable alternative. Objectives: The aim of this study is to find a reliable clinical alternative to detect an intracranial injury without resorting to the CT. Materials and Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study was undertaken in patients (1-14 years with blunt head injury and having a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS of 13-15 who had CT performed on them. Using statistical analysis, the correlation between clinical examination and positive CT manifestation is analyzed for different age-groups and various mechanisms of injury. Results: No statistically significant association between parameteres such as Loss of Consciousness, ′fall′ as mechanism of injury, motor vehicle accidents (MVA, more than two discrete episodes of vomiting and the CT finding of intracranial injury could be noted. Analyzed data have led to believe that GCS of 13 at presentation is the only important clinical predictor of intracranial injury. Conclusion: Retrospective data, small sample size and limited number of factors for assessing clinical manifestation might present constraints on the predictive rule that was derived from this review. Such limitations notwithstanding, the decision to determine which patients should undergo neuroimaging is encouraged to be based on clinical judgments. Further analysis with higher sample sizes may be required to authenticate and validate findings.

Selecting short-statured children needing growth hormone testing: Derivation and validation of a clinical decision rule

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bréart Gérard

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous short-statured children are evaluated for growth hormone (GH deficiency (GHD. In most patients, GH provocative tests are normal and are thus in retrospect unnecessary. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify predictors of growth hormone (GH deficiency (GHD in children seen for short stature, and to construct a very sensitive and fairly specific predictive tool to avoid unnecessary GH provocative tests. GHD was defined by the presence of 2 GH concentration peaks Results The initial study included 167 patients, 36 (22% of whom had GHD, including 5 (3% with certain GHD. Independent predictors of GHD were: growth rate Conclusion We have derived and performed an internal validation of a highly sensitive decision rule that could safely help to avoid more than 2/3 of the unnecessary GH tests. External validation of this rule is needed before any application.

Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

2018-02-15

The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

Strategy as simple rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenhardt, K M; Sull, D N

2001-01-01

The success of Yahoo!, eBay, Enron, and other companies that have become adept at morphing to meet the demands of changing markets can't be explained using traditional thinking about competitive strategy. These companies have succeeded by pursuing constantly evolving strategies in market spaces that were considered unattractive according to traditional measures. In this article--the third in an HBR series by Kathleen Eisenhardt and Donald Sull on strategy in the new economy--the authors ask, what are the sources of competitive advantage in high-velocity markets? The secret, they say, is strategy as simple rules. The companies know that the greatest opportunities for competitive advantage lie in market confusion, but they recognize the need for a few crucial strategic processes and a few simple rules. In traditional strategy, advantage comes from exploiting resources or stable market positions. In strategy as simple rules, advantage comes from successfully seizing fleeting opportunities. Key strategic processes, such as product innovation, partnering, or spinout creation, place the company where the flow of opportunities is greatest. Simple rules then provide the guidelines within which managers can pursue such opportunities. Simple rules, which grow out of experience, fall into five broad categories: how- to rules, boundary conditions, priority rules, timing rules, and exit rules. Companies with simple-rules strategies must follow the rules religiously and avoid the temptation to change them too frequently. A consistent strategy helps managers sort through opportunities and gain short-term advantage by exploiting the attractive ones. In stable markets, managers rely on complicated strategies built on detailed predictions of the future. But when business is complicated, strategy should be simple.

Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Fever and Clinical Prediction of Scrub Typhus in a Non-Tropical Endemic Area

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Ho-Chul; Chon, Sung-Bin; Oh, Won Sup; Lee, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Ho-Jin

2015-01-01

Scrub typhus usually presents as acute undifferentiated fever. This cross-sectional study included adult patients presenting with acute undifferentiated fever defined as any febrile illness for ≤ 14 days without evidence of localized infection. Scrub typhus cases were defined by an antibody titer of a ≥ fourfold increase in paired sera, a ≥ 1:160 in a single serum using indirect immunofluorescence assay, or a positive result of the immunochromatographic test. Multiple regression analysis identified predictors associated with scrub typhus to develop a prediction rule. Of 250 cases with known etiology of acute undifferentiated fever, influenza (28.0%), hepatitis A (25.2%), and scrub typhus (16.4%) were major causes. A prediction rule for identifying suspected cases of scrub typhus consisted of age ≥ 65 years (two points), recent fieldwork/outdoor activities (one point), onset of illness during an outbreak period (two points), myalgia (one point), and eschar (two points). The c statistic was 0.977 (95% confidence interval = 0.960–0.994). At a cutoff value ≥ 4, the sensitivity and specificity were 92.7% (79.0–98.1%) and 90.9% (86.0–94.3%), respectively. Scrub typhus, the third leading cause of acute undifferentiated fever in our region, can be identified early using the prediction rule. PMID:25448236

Ruling out pulmonary embolism in primary care : Comparison of the diagnostic performance of “gestalt” and the wells rule

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendriksen, Janneke M T; Lucassen, Wim A M; Erkens, Petra M G; Stoffers, Henri E J H; van Weert, Henk C P M; Büller, Harry R.; Hoes, Arno W.; Moons, Karel G M; Geersing, Geert Jan

2016-01-01

PURPOSE Diagnostic prediction models such as the Wells rule can be used for safely ruling out pulmonary embolism (PE) when it is suspected. A physician’s own probability estimate (“gestalt”), however, is commonly used instead. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of both approaches in primary

Blood DNA methylation biomarkers predict clinical reactivity in food-sensitized infants.

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Martino, David; Dang, Thanh; Sexton-Oates, Alexandra; Prescott, Susan; Tang, Mimi L K; Dharmage, Shyamali; Gurrin, Lyle; Koplin, Jennifer; Ponsonby, Anne-Louise; Allen, Katrina J; Saffery, Richard

2015-05-01

The diagnosis of food allergy (FA) can be challenging because approximately half of food-sensitized patients are asymptomatic. Current diagnostic tests are excellent makers of sensitization but poor predictors of clinical reactivity. Thus oral food challenges (OFCs) are required to determine a patient's risk of reactivity. We sought to discover genomic biomarkers of clinical FA with utility for predicting food challenge outcomes. Genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) profiling was performed on blood mononuclear cells from volunteers who had undergone objective OFCs, concurrent skin prick tests, and specific IgE tests. Fifty-eight food-sensitized patients (aged 11-15 months) were assessed, half of whom were clinically reactive. Thirteen nonallergic control subjects were also assessed. Reproducibility was assessed in an additional 48 samples by using methylation data from an independent population of patients with clinical FA. Using a supervised learning approach, we discovered a DNAm signature of 96 CpG sites that predict clinical outcomes. Diagnostic scores were derived from these 96 methylation sites, and cutoffs were determined in a sensitivity analysis. Methylation biomarkers outperformed allergen-specific IgE and skin prick tests for predicting OFC outcomes. FA status was correctly predicted in the replication cohort with an accuracy of 79.2%. DNAm biomarkers with clinical utility for predicting food challenge outcomes are readily detectable in blood. The development of this technology in detailed follow-up studies will yield highly innovative diagnostic assays. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Pulmonary MRI of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Predicts Short-term Clinical Outcomes.

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Higano, Nara S; Spielberg, David R; Fleck, Robert J; Schapiro, Andrew H; Walkup, Laura L; Hahn, Andrew D; Tkach, Jean A; Kingma, Paul S; Merhar, Stephanie L; Fain, Sean B; Woods, Jason C

2018-05-23

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a serious neonatal pulmonary condition associated with premature birth, but the underlying parenchymal disease and trajectory are poorly characterized. The current NICHD/NHLBI definition of BPD severity is based on degree of prematurity and extent of oxygen requirement. However, no clear link exists between initial diagnosis and clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of structural parenchymal abnormalities will correlate with NICHD-defined BPD disease severity and predict short-term respiratory outcomes. Forty-two neonates (20 severe BPD, 6 moderate, 7 mild, 9 non-BPD controls; 40±3 weeks post-menstrual age) underwent quiet-breathing structural pulmonary MRI (ultrashort echo-time and gradient echo) in a NICU-sited, neonatal-sized 1.5T scanner, without sedation or respiratory support unless already clinically prescribed. Disease severity was scored independently by two radiologists. Mean scores were compared to clinical severity and short-term respiratory outcomes. Outcomes were predicted using univariate and multivariable models including clinical data and scores. MRI scores significantly correlated with severities and predicted respiratory support at NICU discharge (P<0.0001). In multivariable models, MRI scores were by far the strongest predictor of respiratory support duration over clinical data, including birth weight and gestational age. Notably, NICHD severity level was not predictive of discharge support. Quiet-breathing neonatal pulmonary MRI can independently assess structural abnormalities of BPD, describe disease severity, and predict short-term outcomes more accurately than any individual standard clinical measure. Importantly, this non-ionizing technique can be implemented to phenotype disease and has potential to serially assess efficacy of individualized therapies.

Failsafe automation of Phase II clinical trial interim monitoring for stopping rules.

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Day, Roger S

2010-02-01

In Phase II clinical trials in cancer, preventing the treatment of patients on a study when current data demonstrate that the treatment is insufficiently active or too toxic has obvious benefits, both in protecting patients and in reducing sponsor costs. Considerable efforts have gone into experimental designs for Phase II clinical trials with flexible sample size, usually implemented by early stopping rules. The intended benefits will not ensue, however, if the design is not followed. Despite the best intentions, failures can occur for many reasons. The main goal is to develop an automated system for interim monitoring, as a backup system supplementing the protocol team, to ensure that patients are protected. A secondary goal is to stimulate timely recording of patient assessments. We developed key concepts and performance needs, then designed, implemented, and deployed a software solution embedded in the clinical trials database system. The system has been in place since October 2007. One clinical trial tripped the automated monitor, resulting in e-mails that initiated statistician/investigator review in timely fashion. Several essential contributing activities still require human intervention, institutional policy decisions, and institutional commitment of resources. We believe that implementing the concepts presented here will provide greater assurance that interim monitoring plans are followed and that patients are protected from inadequate response or excessive toxicity. This approach may also facilitate wider acceptance and quicker implementation of new interim monitoring algorithms.

Advantages and limitations of anticipating laboratory test results from regression- and tree-based rules derived from electronic health-record data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fahim Mohammad

Full Text Available Laboratory testing is the single highest-volume medical activity, making it useful to ask how well one can anticipate whether a given test result will be high, low, or within the reference interval ("normal". We analyzed 10 years of electronic health records--a total of 69.4 million blood tests--to see how well standard rule-mining techniques can anticipate test results based on patient age and gender, recent diagnoses, and recent laboratory test results. We evaluated rules according to their positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV and area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC AUCs. Using a stringent cutoff of PPV and/or NPV≥0.95, standard techniques yield few rules for sendout tests but several for in-house tests, mostly for repeat laboratory tests that are part of the complete blood count and basic metabolic panel. Most rules were clinically and pathophysiologically plausible, and several seemed clinically useful for informing pre-test probability of a given result. But overall, rules were unlikely to be able to function as a general substitute for actually ordering a test. Improving laboratory utilization will likely require different input data and/or alternative methods.

Advantages and limitations of anticipating laboratory test results from regression- and tree-based rules derived from electronic health-record data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammad, Fahim; Theisen-Toupal, Jesse C; Arnaout, Ramy

2014-01-01

Laboratory testing is the single highest-volume medical activity, making it useful to ask how well one can anticipate whether a given test result will be high, low, or within the reference interval ("normal"). We analyzed 10 years of electronic health records--a total of 69.4 million blood tests--to see how well standard rule-mining techniques can anticipate test results based on patient age and gender, recent diagnoses, and recent laboratory test results. We evaluated rules according to their positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) and area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (ROC AUCs). Using a stringent cutoff of PPV and/or NPV≥0.95, standard techniques yield few rules for sendout tests but several for in-house tests, mostly for repeat laboratory tests that are part of the complete blood count and basic metabolic panel. Most rules were clinically and pathophysiologically plausible, and several seemed clinically useful for informing pre-test probability of a given result. But overall, rules were unlikely to be able to function as a general substitute for actually ordering a test. Improving laboratory utilization will likely require different input data and/or alternative methods.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

Using prediction markets of market scoring rule to forecast infectious diseases: a case study in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-chuan; Lin, Jih-wen

2015-08-11

The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effective prediction mechanism. We designed and built the Epidemic Prediction Markets (EPM) system based upon the trading mechanism of market scoring rule. By using this system, we aggregated dispersed information from various medical professionals to predict influenza, enterovirus, and dengue fever in Taiwan. EPM was more accurate in 701 out of 1,085 prediction events than the traditional baseline of historical average and the winning ratio of EPM versus AVG was 64.6 % for the target week. For the absolute prediction error of five diseases indicators of three infectious diseases, EPM was more accurate for the target week than AVG except for dengue fever confirmed cases. The winning ratios of EPM versus AVG for the confirmed cases of severe complicated influenza case, the rate of enterovirus infection, and the rate of influenza-like illness in the target week were 69.6 %, 83.9 and 76.0 %, respectively; instead, for the prediction of the confirmed cases of dengue fever and the confirmed cases of severe complicated enterovirus infection, the winning ratios of EPM were all below 50 %. Except confirmed cases of dengue fever, EPM provided accurate, continuous and real-time predictions of four indicators of three infectious diseases for the target week in Taiwan and outperformed the historical average data of infectious diseases.

Optimized reaction mechanism rate rules for ignition of normal alkanes

KAUST Repository

Cai, Liming

2016-08-11

The increasing demand for cleaner combustion and reduced greenhouse gas emissions motivates research on the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels and their surrogates. Accurate detailed chemical kinetic models are an important prerequisite for high fidelity reacting flow simulations capable of improving combustor design and operation. The development of such models for many new fuel components and/or surrogate molecules is greatly facilitated by the application of reaction classes and rate rules. Accurate and versatile rate rules are desirable to improve the predictive accuracy of kinetic models. A major contribution in the literature is the recent work by Bugler et al. (2015), which has significantly improved rate rules and thermochemical parameters used in kinetic modeling of alkanes. In the present study, it is demonstrated that rate rules can be used and consistently optimized for a set of normal alkanes including n-heptane, n-octane, n-nonane, n-decane, and n-undecane, thereby improving the predictive accuracy for all the considered fuels. A Bayesian framework is applied in the calibration of the rate rules. The optimized rate rules are subsequently applied to generate a mechanism for n-dodecane, which was not part of the training set for the optimized rate rules. The developed mechanism shows accurate predictions compared with published well-validated mechanisms for a wide range of conditions.

The Meta-Analysis of Clinical Judgment Project: Fifty-Six Years of Accumulated Research on Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Aegisdottir, Stefania; White, Michael J.; Spengler, Paul M.; Maugherman, Alan S.; Anderson, Linda A.; Cook, Robert S.; Nichols, Cassandra N.; Lampropoulos, Georgios K.; Walker, Blain S.; Cohen, Genna; Rush, Jeffrey D.

2006-01-01

Clinical predictions made by mental health practitioners are compared with those using statistical approaches. Sixty-seven studies were identified from a comprehensive search of 56 years of research; 92 effect sizes were derived from these studies. The overall effect of clinical versus statistical prediction showed a somewhat greater accuracy for…

Clinical chemistry in higher dimensions: Machine-learning and enhanced prediction from routine clinical chemistry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Alice; Signor, Ben M; Lidbury, Brett A; Badrick, Tony

2016-11-01

Big Data is having an impact on many areas of research, not the least of which is biomedical science. In this review paper, big data and machine learning are defined in terms accessible to the clinical chemistry community. Seven myths associated with machine learning and big data are then presented, with the aim of managing expectation of machine learning amongst clinical chemists. The myths are illustrated with four examples investigating the relationship between biomarkers in liver function tests, enhanced laboratory prediction of hepatitis virus infection, the relationship between bilirubin and white cell count, and the relationship between red cell distribution width and laboratory prediction of anaemia. Copyright © 2016 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cosmic-ray sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frandsen, Mads T.; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

2011-01-01

We introduce new sum rules allowing to determine universal properties of the unknown component of the cosmic rays; we show how they can be used to predict the positron fraction at energies not yet explored by current experiments, and to constrain specific models.

Occipital lobe and posterior cingulate perfusion in the prediction of dementia with Lewy body pathology in a clinical sample.

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Prosser, Angus M J; Tossici-Bolt, Livia; Kipps, Christopher M

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic value of occipital lobe and posterior cingulate perfusion in predicting dopamine transporter imaging outcome using a quantitative measure of analysis. In total, 99 patients with cognitive complaints who had undergone both technetium-99m-hexamethylpropyleneamine oxime single-photon emission computed tomography (Tc-HMPAO SPECT) and I ioflupane (I-FP-CIT also called DaTSCAN) imaging in a dementia diagnostic center were analyzed. Measures of perfusion were calculated from HMPAO SPECT images for the medial and lateral occipital lobe, the posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus and cuneus regions of interest using statistical parametric mapping 8. DaTSCAN images were quantified and specific binding ratios were calculated independent from HMPAO SPECT results. Statistical parametric mapping and tests of associations between perfusion and I-FP-CIT imaging were completed. Regions of interest on HMPAO yielded poor predictive values when used independently to predict I-FP-CIT status; however, the combination of normal posterior cingulate perfusion with medial and lateral occipital hypoperfusion was associated significantly with I-FP-CIT status, χ (1, N=99)=9.72, P=0.002. This combination also yielded a high positive likelihood ratio and specificity (11.1, 98%). Sensitivity was, however, low (22%). No significant perfusion differences were found when abnormal and normal I-FP-CIT groups were compared directly using voxel-based morphometry (Poccipital hypoperfusion with preserved posterior cingulate gyrus perfusion is highly specific for individuals with a positive I-FP-CIT scan in a clinical sample where diagnostic doubt exists. This regional combination, however, lacks sensitivity; therefore, absence of the sign cannot be used to rule out dementia with Lewy bodies. A positive finding provides strong evidence to rule in dementia with Lewy bodies.

Induction and pruning of classification rules for prediction of microseismic hazards in coal mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sikora, M. [Silesian Technical University, Gliwice (Poland)

2011-06-15

The paper presents results of application of a rule induction and pruning algorithm for classification of a microseismic hazard state in coal mines. Due to imbalanced distribution of examples describing states 'hazardous' and 'safe', the special algorithm was used for induction and rule pruning. The algorithm selects optimal parameters' values influencing rule induction and pruning based on training and tuning sets. A rule quality measure which decides about a form and classification abilities of rules that are induced is the basic parameter of the algorithm. The specificity and sensitivity of a classifier were used to evaluate its quality. Conducted tests show that the admitted method of rules induction and classifier's quality evaluation enables to get better results of classification of microseismic hazards than by methods currently used in mining practice. Results obtained by the rules-based classifier were also compared with results got by a decision tree induction algorithm and by a neuro-fuzzy system.

Preschoolers can infer general rules governing fantastical events in fiction.

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Van de Vondervoort, Julia W; Friedman, Ori

2014-05-01

Young children are frequently exposed to fantastic fiction. How do they make sense of the unrealistic and impossible events that occur in such fiction? Although children could view such events as isolated episodes, the present experiments suggest that children use such events to infer general fantasy rules. In 2 experiments, 2- to 4-year-olds were shown scenarios in which 2 animals behaved unrealistically (N = 78 in Experiment 1, N = 94 in Experiment 2). When asked to predict how other animals in the fiction would behave, children predicted novel behaviors consistent with the nature of the fiction. These findings suggest that preschoolers can infer the general rules that govern the events and entities in fantastic fiction and can use these rules to predict what events will happen in the fiction. The findings also provide evidence that children may infer fantasy rules at a more superordinate level than the basic level. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

A sharable cloud-based pancreaticoduodenectomy collaborative database for physicians: emphasis on security and clinical rule supporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hwan-Jeu; Lai, Hong-Shiee; Chen, Kuo-Hsin; Chou, Hsien-Cheng; Wu, Jin-Ming; Dorjgochoo, Sarangerel; Mendjargal, Adilsaikhan; Altangerel, Erdenebaatar; Tien, Yu-Wen; Hsueh, Chih-Wen; Lai, Feipei

2013-08-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a major operation with high complication rate. Thereafter, patients may develop morbidity because of the complex reconstruction and loss of pancreatic parenchyma. A well-designed database is very important to address both the short-term and long-term outcomes after PD. The objective of this research was to build an international PD database implemented with security and clinical rule supporting functions, which made the data-sharing easier and improve the accuracy of data. The proposed system is a cloud-based application. To fulfill its requirements, the system comprises four subsystems: a data management subsystem, a clinical rule supporting subsystem, a short message notification subsystem, and an information security subsystem. After completing the surgery, the physicians input the data retrospectively, which are analyzed to study factors associated with post-PD common complications (delayed gastric emptying and pancreatic fistula) to validate the clinical value of this system. Currently, this database contains data from nearly 500 subjects. Five medical centers in Taiwan and two cancer centers in Mongolia are participating in this study. A data mining model of the decision tree analysis showed that elderly patients (>76 years) with pylorus-preserving PD (PPPD) have higher proportion of delayed gastric emptying. About the pancreatic fistula, the data mining model of the decision tree analysis revealed that cases with non-pancreaticogastrostomy (PG) reconstruction - body mass index (BMI)>29.65 or PG reconstruction - BMI>23.7 - non-classic PD have higher proportion of pancreatic fistula after PD. The proposed system allows medical staff to collect and store clinical data in a cloud, sharing the data with other physicians in a secure manner to achieve collaboration in research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical predictive score of intracranial hemorrhage in mild traumatic brain injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuksen C

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Chaiyaporn Yuksen,1 Yuwares Sittichanbuncha,1 Jayanton Patumanond,2 Sombat Muengtaweepongsa,3 Kittisak Sawanyawisuth4,5 1Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, 2Clinical Epidemiology Unit and Clinical Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani, 3Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani, 4Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, 5Sleep Apnea Research Group, Research Center in Back, Neck, Other Joint Pain and Human Performance (BNOJPH, and Research and Training Center for Enhancing Quality of Life of Working Age People, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand Background: Mild traumatic brain injury (TBI is a common condition at the Emergency Medicine Department. Head computer tomography (CT scans in mild TBI patients must be properly justified in order to avoid unnecessary exposure to X-rays and to reduce the hospital/transfer costs. This study aimed to evaluate which clinical factors are associated with intracranial hemorrhage in Asian population and to develop a user-friendly predictive model.Methods: The study was conducted retrospectively at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. The study period was between September 2013 and August 2016. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and having received a head CT scan after presenting with mild TBI. Those patients with mild TBI and no symptoms/deterioration after 24 h of clinical observation were excluded. The predictive model and prediction score for intracranial hemorrhage was developed by multivariate logistic regression analysis.Results: During the study period, there were 708 patients who met the study criteria. Of those, 100 patients (14.12% had positive head CT scan results. There were seven independent factors that were

Semi-empirical correlation for binary interaction parameters of the Peng-Robinson equation of state with the van der Waals mixing rules for the prediction of high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Fateen, Seif-Eddeen K; Khalil, Menna M; Elnabawy, Ahmed O

2013-03-01

Peng-Robinson equation of state is widely used with the classical van der Waals mixing rules to predict vapor liquid equilibria for systems containing hydrocarbons and related compounds. This model requires good values of the binary interaction parameter kij . In this work, we developed a semi-empirical correlation for kij partly based on the Huron-Vidal mixing rules. We obtained values for the adjustable parameters of the developed formula for over 60 binary systems and over 10 categories of components. The predictions of the new equation system were slightly better than the constant-kij model in most cases, except for 10 systems whose predictions were considerably improved with the new correlation.

Comparative prediction of nonepileptic events using MMPI-2 clinical scales, Harris Lingoes subscales, and restructured clinical scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamout, Karim Z; Heinrichs, Robin J; Baade, Lyle E; Soetaert, Dana K; Liow, Kore K

2017-03-01

The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2) is a psychological testing tool used to measure psychological and personality constructs. The MMPI-2 has proven helpful in identifying individuals with nonepileptic events/nonepileptic seizures. However, the MMPI-2 has had some updates that enhanced its original scales. The aim of this article was to test the utility of updated MMPI-2 scales in predicting the likelihood of non-epileptic seizures in individuals admitted to an EEG video monitoring unit. We compared sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios of traditional MMPI-2 Clinical Scales against more homogenous MMPI-2 Harris-Lingoes subscales and the newer Restructured Clinical (RC) scales. Our results showed that the Restructured Scales did not show significant improvement over the original Clinical scales. However, one Harris-Lingoes subscale (HL4 of Clinical Scale 3) did show improved predictive utility over the original Clinical scales as well as over the newer Restructured Clinical scales. Our study suggests that the predictive utility of the MMPI-2 can be improved using already existing scales. This is particularly useful for those practitioners who are not invested in switching over to the newly developed MMPI-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2 RF). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Outcome in Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding Using Gradient Boosting.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lakshmana Ayaru

Full Text Available There are no widely used models in clinical care to predict outcome in acute lower gastro-intestinal bleeding (ALGIB. If available these could help triage patients at presentation to appropriate levels of care/intervention and improve medical resource utilisation. We aimed to apply a state-of-the-art machine learning classifier, gradient boosting (GB, to predict outcome in ALGIB using non-endoscopic measurements as predictors.Non-endoscopic variables from patients with ALGIB attending the emergency departments of two teaching hospitals were analysed retrospectively for training/internal validation (n=170 and external validation (n=130 of the GB model. The performance of the GB algorithm in predicting recurrent bleeding, clinical intervention and severe bleeding was compared to a multiple logic regression (MLR model and two published MLR-based prediction algorithms (BLEED and Strate prediction rule.The GB algorithm had the best negative predictive values for the chosen outcomes (>88%. On internal validation the accuracy of the GB algorithm for predicting recurrent bleeding, therapeutic intervention and severe bleeding were (88%, 88% and 78% respectively and superior to the BLEED classification (64%, 68% and 63%, Strate prediction rule (78%, 78%, 67% and conventional MLR (74%, 74% 62%. On external validation the accuracy was similar to conventional MLR for recurrent bleeding (88% vs. 83% and therapeutic intervention (91% vs. 87% but superior for severe bleeding (83% vs. 71%.The gradient boosting algorithm accurately predicts outcome in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and outperforms multiple logistic regression based models. These may be useful for risk stratification of patients on presentation to the emergency department.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

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Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

A Rule-Based Model for Bankruptcy Prediction Based on an Improved Genetic Ant Colony Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yudong Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we proposed a hybrid system to predict corporate bankruptcy. The whole procedure consists of the following four stages: first, sequential forward selection was used to extract the most important features; second, a rule-based model was chosen to fit the given dataset since it can present physical meaning; third, a genetic ant colony algorithm (GACA was introduced; the fitness scaling strategy and the chaotic operator were incorporated with GACA, forming a new algorithm—fitness-scaling chaotic GACA (FSCGACA, which was used to seek the optimal parameters of the rule-based model; and finally, the stratified K-fold cross-validation technique was used to enhance the generalization of the model. Simulation experiments of 1000 corporations’ data collected from 2006 to 2009 demonstrated that the proposed model was effective. It selected the 5 most important factors as “net income to stock broker’s equality,” “quick ratio,” “retained earnings to total assets,” “stockholders’ equity to total assets,” and “financial expenses to sales.” The total misclassification error of the proposed FSCGACA was only 7.9%, exceeding the results of genetic algorithm (GA, ant colony algorithm (ACA, and GACA. The average computation time of the model is 2.02 s.

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems.

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DesAutels, Spencer J; Fox, Zachary E; Giuse, Dario A; Williams, Annette M; Kou, Qing-Hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems.

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

DesAutels, Spencer J.; Fox, Zachary E.; Giuse, Dario A.; Williams, Annette M.; Kou, Qing-hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems. PMID:28269846

A diagnosis-based clinical decision rule for spinal pain part 2: review of the literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hurwitz Eric L

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Spinal pain is a common and often disabling problem. The research on various treatments for spinal pain has, for the most part, suggested that while several interventions have demonstrated mild to moderate short-term benefit, no single treatment has a major impact on either pain or disability. There is great need for more accurate diagnosis in patients with spinal pain. In a previous paper, the theoretical model of a diagnosis-based clinical decision rule was presented. The approach is designed to provide the clinician with a strategy for arriving at a specific working diagnosis from which treatment decisions can be made. It is based on three questions of diagnosis. In the current paper, the literature on the reliability and validity of the assessment procedures that are included in the diagnosis-based clinical decision rule is presented. Methods The databases of Medline, Cinahl, Embase and MANTIS were searched for studies that evaluated the reliability and validity of clinic-based diagnostic procedures for patients with spinal pain that have relevance for questions 2 (which investigates characteristics of the pain source and 3 (which investigates perpetuating factors of the pain experience. In addition, the reference list of identified papers and authors' libraries were searched. Results A total of 1769 articles were retrieved, of which 138 were deemed relevant. Fifty-one studies related to reliability and 76 related to validity. One study evaluated both reliability and validity. Conclusion Regarding some aspects of the DBCDR, there are a number of studies that allow the clinician to have a reasonable degree of confidence in his or her findings. This is particularly true for centralization signs, neurodynamic signs and psychological perpetuating factors. There are other aspects of the DBCDR in which a lesser degree of confidence is warranted, and in which further research is needed.

Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Palani Kannan Kandavel

2017-12-01

The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

A Swarm Optimization approach for clinical knowledge mining.

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Christopher, J Jabez; Nehemiah, H Khanna; Kannan, A

2015-10-01

Rule-based classification is a typical data mining task that is being used in several medical diagnosis and decision support systems. The rules stored in the rule base have an impact on classification efficiency. Rule sets that are extracted with data mining tools and techniques are optimized using heuristic or meta-heuristic approaches in order to improve the quality of the rule base. In this work, a meta-heuristic approach called Wind-driven Swarm Optimization (WSO) is used. The uniqueness of this work lies in the biological inspiration that underlies the algorithm. WSO uses Jval, a new metric, to evaluate the efficiency of a rule-based classifier. Rules are extracted from decision trees. WSO is used to obtain different permutations and combinations of rules whereby the optimal ruleset that satisfies the requirement of the developer is used for predicting the test data. The performance of various extensions of decision trees, namely, RIPPER, PART, FURIA and Decision Tables are analyzed. The efficiency of WSO is also compared with the traditional Particle Swarm Optimization. Experiments were carried out with six benchmark medical datasets. The traditional C4.5 algorithm yields 62.89% accuracy with 43 rules for liver disorders dataset where as WSO yields 64.60% with 19 rules. For Heart disease dataset, C4.5 is 68.64% accurate with 98 rules where as WSO is 77.8% accurate with 34 rules. The normalized standard deviation for accuracy of PSO and WSO are 0.5921 and 0.5846 respectively. WSO provides accurate and concise rulesets. PSO yields results similar to that of WSO but the novelty of WSO lies in its biological motivation and it is customization for rule base optimization. The trade-off between the prediction accuracy and the size of the rule base is optimized during the design and development of rule-based clinical decision support system. The efficiency of a decision support system relies on the content of the rule base and classification accuracy. Copyright �

Can clinical prediction tools predict the need for computed tomography in blunt abdominal? A systematic review.

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Sharples, Alistair; Brohi, Karim

2016-08-01

Blunt abdominal trauma is a common reason for admission to the Emergency Department. Early detection of injuries is an important goal but is often not straightforward as physical examination alone is not a good predictor of serious injury. Computed tomography (CT) has become the primary method for assessing the stable trauma patient. It has high sensitivity and specificity but there remains concern regarding the long term consequences of high doses of radiation. Therefore an accurate and reliable method of assessing which patients are at higher risk of injury and hence require a CT would be clinically useful. We perform a systematic review to investigate the use of clinical prediction tools (CPTs) for the identification of abdominal injuries in patients suffering blunt trauma. A literature search was performed using Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library and NHS Evidence up to August 2014. English language, prospective and retrospective studies were included if they derived, validated or assessed a CPT, aimed at identifying intra-abdominal injuries or the need for intervention to treat an intra-abdominal after blunt trauma. Methodological quality was assessed using a 14 point scale. Performance was assessed predominantly by sensitivity. Seven relevant studies were identified. All studies were derivative studies and no CPT was validated in a separate study. There were large differences in the study design, composition of the CPTs, the outcomes analysed and the methodological quality of the included studies. Sensitivities ranged from 86 to 100%. The highest performing CPT had a lower limit of the 95% CI of 95.8% and was of high methodological quality (11 of 14). Had this rule been applied to the population then 25.1% of patients would have avoided a CT scan. Seven CPTs were identified of varying designs and methodological quality. All demonstrate relatively high sensitivity with some achieving very high sensitivity whilst still managing to reduce the number of CTs

Semi-empirical correlation for binary interaction parameters of the Peng–Robinson equation of state with the van der Waals mixing rules for the prediction of high-pressure vapor–liquid equilibrium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seif-Eddeen K. Fateen

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Peng–Robinson equation of state is widely used with the classical van der Waals mixing rules to predict vapor liquid equilibria for systems containing hydrocarbons and related compounds. This model requires good values of the binary interaction parameter kij. In this work, we developed a semi-empirical correlation for kij partly based on the Huron–Vidal mixing rules. We obtained values for the adjustable parameters of the developed formula for over 60 binary systems and over 10 categories of components. The predictions of the new equation system were slightly better than the constant-kij model in most cases, except for 10 systems whose predictions were considerably improved with the new correlation.

Validity and clinical utility of the simplified Wells rule for assessing clinical probability for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Douma, Renée A.; Gibson, Nadine S.; Gerdes, Victor E. A.; Büller, Harry R.; Wells, Philip S.; Perrier, Arnaud; Le Gal, Grégoire

2009-01-01

The recently introduced simplified Wells rule for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism (PE) assigns only one point to the seven variables of the original Wells rule. This study was performed to independently validate the simplified Wells rule for the exclusion of PE. We retrospectively calculated the

Clinical utility and validity of minoxidil response testing in androgenetic alopecia.

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Goren, Andy; Shapiro, Jerry; Roberts, Janet; McCoy, John; Desai, Nisha; Zarrab, Zoulikha; Pietrzak, Aldona; Lotti, Torello

2015-01-01

Clinical response to 5% topical minoxidil for the treatment of androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is typically observed after 3-6 months. Approximately 40% of patients will regrow hair. Given the prolonged treatment time required to elicit a response, a diagnostic test for ruling out nonresponders would have significant clinical utility. Two studies have previously reported that sulfotransferase enzyme activity in plucked hair follicles predicts a patient's response to topical minoxidil therapy. The aim of this study was to assess the clinical utility and validity of minoxidil response testing. In this communication, the present authors conducted an analysis of completed and ongoing studies of minoxidil response testing. The analysis confirmed the clinical utility of a sulfotransferase enzyme test in successfully ruling out 95.9% of nonresponders to topical minoxidil for the treatment of AGA. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Straight leg elevation to rule out pelvic injury.

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Bolt, Caroline; O'Keeffe, Francis; Finnegan, Pete; Dickson, Kristofer; Smit, De Villiers; Fitzgerald, Mark C; Mitra, Biswadev

2018-02-01

Pelvic x-ray is frequently used as a screening tool during initial assessment of injured patients. However routine use in the awake and alert blunt trauma patient may be questioned due to low yield. We propose a clinical tool that may avoid unnecessary imaging by examining whether the ability to straight leg raise, without pain, can rule out pelvic injury. We conducted a prospective cohort study with the exposure variables of ability to straight leg raise and presence of pain on doing so, and presence of pelvic fracture on x-ray as the primary outcome variable. Of the 328 participants, 35 had pelvic fractures, and of these 32 were either unable to straight leg raise, or had pain on doing so, with a sensitivity of 91.43% (95% CI: 76.94-98.2%) and a negative predictive value of 98.57% (95% CI: 95.88-99.70%). The 3 participants with a pelvic fracture who could straight leg raise with no pain, all had a GCS of less than 15, and therefore, among the sub-group of patients with GCS15, a 100% sensitivity and 100% negative predictive value for straight leg raise with no pain to rule out pelvic fracture was demonstrated. Among awake, alert patients, painless straight leg raise can exclude pelvic fractures and be incorporated into initial examination during reception and resuscitation of injured patients. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A prediction rule for the development of delirium among patients in medical wards: Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree analysis model.

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Kobayashi, Daiki; Takahashi, Osamu; Arioka, Hiroko; Koga, Shinichiro; Fukui, Tsuguya

2013-10-01

To predict development of delirium among patients in medical wards by a Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree model. This was a retrospective cohort study of all adult patients admitted to medical wards at a large community hospital. The subject patients were randomly assigned to either a derivation or validation group (2:1) by computed random number generation. Baseline data and clinically relevant factors were collected from the electronic chart. Primary outcome was the development of delirium during hospitalization. All potential predictors were included in a forward stepwise logistic regression model. CHAID decision tree analysis was also performed to make another prediction model with the same group of patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn, and the area under the curves (AUCs) were calculated for both models. In the validation group, these receiver operating characteristic curves and AUCs were calculated based on the rules from derivation. A total of 3,570 patients were admitted: 2,400 patients assigned to the derivation group and 1,170 to the validation group. A total of 91 and 51 patients, respectively, developed delirium. Statistically significant predictors were delirium history, age, underlying malignancy, and activities of daily living impairment in CHAID decision tree model, resulting in six distinctive groups by the level of risk. AUC was 0.82 in derivation and 0.82 in validation with CHAID model and 0.78 in derivation and 0.79 in validation with logistic model. We propose a validated CHAID decision tree prediction model to predict the development of delirium among medical patients. Copyright © 2013 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Compiling standardized information from clinical practice: using content analysis and ICF Linking Rules in a goal-oriented youth rehabilitation program.

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Lustenberger, Nadia A; Prodinger, Birgit; Dorjbal, Delgerjargal; Rubinelli, Sara; Schmitt, Klaus; Scheel-Sailer, Anke

2017-09-23

To illustrate how routinely written narrative admission and discharge reports of a rehabilitation program for eight youths with chronic neurological health conditions can be transformed to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. First, a qualitative content analysis was conducted by building meaningful units with text segments assigned of the reports to the five elements of the Rehab-Cycle ® : goal; assessment; assignment; intervention; evaluation. Second, the meaningful units were then linked to the ICF using the refined ICF Linking Rules. With the first step of transformation, the emphasis of the narrative reports changed to a process oriented interdisciplinary layout, revealing three thematic blocks of goals: mobility, self-care, mental, and social functions. The linked 95 unique ICF codes could be grouped in clinically meaningful goal-centered ICF codes. Between the two independent linkers, the agreement rate was improved after complementing the rules with additional agreements. The ICF Linking Rules can be used to compile standardized health information from narrative reports if prior structured. The process requires time and expertise. To implement the ICF into common practice, the findings provide the starting point for reporting rehabilitation that builds upon existing practice and adheres to international standards. Implications for Rehabilitation This study provides evidence that routinely collected health information from rehabilitation practice can be transformed to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health by using the "ICF Linking Rules", however, this requires time and expertise. The Rehab-Cycle ® , including assessments, assignments, goal setting, interventions and goal evaluation, serves as feasible framework for structuring this rehabilitation program and ensures that the complexity of local practice is appropriately reflected. The refined "ICF Linking Rules" lead to a standardized

Clinical gestalt and the prediction of massive transfusion after trauma.

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Pommerening, Matthew J; Goodman, Michael D; Holcomb, John B; Wade, Charles E; Fox, Erin E; Del Junco, Deborah J; Brasel, Karen J; Bulger, Eileen M; Cohen, Mitch J; Alarcon, Louis H; Schreiber, Martin A; Myers, John G; Phelan, Herb A; Muskat, Peter; Rahbar, Mohammad; Cotton, Bryan A

2015-05-01

Early recognition and treatment of trauma patients requiring massive transfusion (MT) has been shown to reduce mortality. While many risk factors predicting MT have been demonstrated, there is no universally accepted method or algorithm to identify these patients. We hypothesised that even among experienced trauma surgeons, the clinical gestalt of identifying patients who will require MT is unreliable. Transfusion and mortality outcomes after trauma were observed at 10 U.S. Level-1 trauma centres in patients who survived ≥ 30 min after admission and received ≥ 1 unit of RBC within 6h of arrival. Subjects who received ≥ 10 units within 24h of admission were classified as MT patients. Trauma surgeons were asked the clinical gestalt question "Is the patient likely to be massively transfused?" 10 min after the patients arrival. The performance of clinical gestalt to predict MT was assessed using chi-square tests and ROC analysis to compare gestalt to previously described scoring systems. Of the 1245 patients enrolled, 966 met inclusion criteria and 221 (23%) patients received MT. 415 (43%) were predicted to have a MT and 551(57%) were predicted to not have MT. Patients predicted to have MT were younger, more often sustained penetrating trauma, had higher ISS scores, higher heart rates, and lower systolic blood pressures (all pGestalt sensitivity was 65.6% and specificity was 63.8%. PPV and NPV were 34.9% and 86.2% respectively. Data from this large multicenter trial demonstrates that predicting the need for MT continues to be a challenge. Because of the increased mortality associated with delayed therapy, a more reliable algorithm is needed to identify and treat these severely injured patients earlier. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

European Marketing Authorizations Granted Based on a Single Pivotal Clinical Trial: The Rule or the Exception?

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Morant, Anne Vinther; Vestergaard, Henrik Tang

2018-07-01

A minimum of two positive, adequate, and well-controlled clinical trials has historically been the gold standard for providing substantial evidence to support regulatory approval of a new medicine. Nevertheless, the present analysis of European Marketing Authorizations granted between 2012 and 2016 showed that 45% of new active substances were approved based on a single pivotal clinical trial. For therapeutic areas such as oncology and cardiovascular diseases, approvals based on a single pivotal trial are the rule rather than the exception, whereas new medicines within the nervous system area were generally supported by two or more pivotal trials. While overall similar trends have been observed in the US, the recent US Food and Drug Administration approvals of nervous system medicines based on a single pivotal trial suggest that a case-by-case scientific evaluation of the totality of evidence is increasingly applied to facilitate faster access of new medicines to patients suffering from serious diseases. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Improving the Interpretability of Classification Rules Discovered by an Ant Colony Algorithm: Extended Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Otero, Fernando E B; Freitas, Alex A

2016-01-01

Most ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithms for inducing classification rules use a ACO-based procedure to create a rule in a one-at-a-time fashion. An improved search strategy has been proposed in the cAnt-Miner[Formula: see text] algorithm, where an ACO-based procedure is used to create a complete list of rules (ordered rules), i.e., the ACO search is guided by the quality of a list of rules instead of an individual rule. In this paper we propose an extension of the cAnt-Miner[Formula: see text] algorithm to discover a set of rules (unordered rules). The main motivations for this work are to improve the interpretation of individual rules by discovering a set of rules and to evaluate the impact on the predictive accuracy of the algorithm. We also propose a new measure to evaluate the interpretability of the discovered rules to mitigate the fact that the commonly used model size measure ignores how the rules are used to make a class prediction. Comparisons with state-of-the-art rule induction algorithms, support vector machines, and the cAnt-Miner[Formula: see text] producing ordered rules are also presented.

QCD sum rules and applications to nuclear physics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, T D [Maryland Univ., College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Physics; [Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Physics and Inst. for Nuclear Theory; Furnstahl, R J [Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics; Griegel, D K [Maryland Univ., College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Physics; [TRIUMF, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Xuemin, J

1994-12-01

Applications of QCD sum-rule methods to the physics of nuclei are reviewed, with an emphasis on calculations of baryon self-energies in infinite nuclear matter. The sum-rule approach relates spectral properties of hadrons propagating in the finite-density medium, such as optical potentials for quasinucleons, to matrix elements of QCD composite operators (condensates). The vacuum formalism for QCD sum rules is generalized to finite density, and the strategy and implementation of the approach is discussed. Predictions for baryon self-energies are compared to those suggested by relativistic nuclear physics phenomenology. Sum rules for vector mesons in dense nuclear matter are also considered. (author). 153 refs., 8 figs.

QCD sum rules and applications to nuclear physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, T.D.; Xuemin, J.

1994-12-01

Applications of QCD sum-rule methods to the physics of nuclei are reviewed, with an emphasis on calculations of baryon self-energies in infinite nuclear matter. The sum-rule approach relates spectral properties of hadrons propagating in the finite-density medium, such as optical potentials for quasinucleons, to matrix elements of QCD composite operators (condensates). The vacuum formalism for QCD sum rules is generalized to finite density, and the strategy and implementation of the approach is discussed. Predictions for baryon self-energies are compared to those suggested by relativistic nuclear physics phenomenology. Sum rules for vector mesons in dense nuclear matter are also considered. (author)

EU Anti-Circumvention Rules: Do They Beat the Alternative?

OpenAIRE

Edwin Vermulst

2015-01-01

This article discusses EU law and practice with regard to tackling circumvention of trade defence instruments, notably anti-dumping measures. The author considers that, while strong legal arguments can be made that anti-circumvention rules are WTO-illegal, as a practical matter transparent and predictable anti-circumvention rules are to be preferred over vague and multi-interpretable non-preferential origin rules that vary from country to country. Furthermore, the many findings of transhipmen...

Coulomb sum rules in the relativistic Fermi gas model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Do Dang, G.; L'Huillier, M.; Nguyen Giai, Van.

1986-11-01

Coulomb sum rules are studied in the framework of the Fermi gas model. A distinction is made between mathematical and observable sum rules. Differences between non-relativistic and relativistic Fermi gas predictions are stressed. A method to deduce a Coulomb response function from the longitudinal response is proposed and tested numerically. This method is applied to the 40 Ca data to obtain the experimental Coulomb sum rule as a function of momentum transfer

Geriatric Fever Score: a new decision rule for geriatric care.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min-Hsien Chung

Full Text Available Evaluating geriatric patients with fever is time-consuming and challenging. We investigated independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever and developed a prediction rule for emergency care, critical care, and geriatric care physicians to classify patients into mortality risk and disposition groups.Consecutive geriatric patients (≥65 years old visiting the emergency department (ED of a university-affiliated medical center between June 1 and July 21, 2010, were enrolled when they met the criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. Thirty-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Internal validation with bootstrap re-sampling was done.Three hundred thirty geriatric patients were enrolled. We found three independent mortality predictors: Leukocytosis (WBC >12,000 cells/mm3, Severe coma (GCS ≤ 8, and Thrombocytopenia (platelets <150 10(3/mm3 (LST. After assigning weights to each predictor, we developed a Geriatric Fever Score that stratifies patients into two mortality-risk and disposition groups: low (4.0% (95% CI: 2.3-6.9%: a general ward or treatment in the ED then discharge and high (30.3% (95% CI: 17.4-47.3%: consider the intensive care unit. The area under the curve for the rule was 0.73.We found that the Geriatric Fever Score is a simple and rapid rule for predicting 30-day mortality and classifying mortality risk and disposition in geriatric patients with fever, although external validation should be performed to confirm its usefulness in other clinical settings. It might help preserve medical resources for patients in greater need.

Predicting pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department: evaluation of clinical parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Huijts, S M; Boersma, W G; Grobbee, D E; Gruber, W C; Jansen, K U; Kluytmans, J A J W; Kuipers, B A F; Palmen, F; Pride, M W; Webber, C; Bonten, M J M

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to quantify the value of clinical predictors available in the emergency department (ED) in predicting Streptococcus pneumoniae as the cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective, observational, cohort study of patients with CAP presenting in the ED was performed. Pneumococcal aetiology of CAP was based on either bacteraemia, or S. pneumoniae being cultured from sputum, or urinary immunochromatographic assay positivity, or positivity of a novel serotype-specific urinary antigen detection test. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors and various cut-off values of probability scores were used to evaluate the usefulness of the model. Three hundred and twenty-eight (31.0%) of 1057 patients with CAP had pneumococcal CAP. Nine independent predictors for pneumococcal pneumonia were identified, but the clinical utility of this prediction model was disappointing, because of low positive predictive values or a small yield. Clinical criteria have insufficient diagnostic capacity to predict pneumococcal CAP. Rapid antigen detection tests are needed to diagnose S. pneumoniae at the time of hospital admission. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

Parental monitoring and rule-breaking behaviour in secondary school students

OpenAIRE

Kovačević-Lepojević Marina

2017-01-01

Parental monitoring is recognised as one of the most important family factors that are associated with rule-breaking behaviour. The objective of this paper is to determine the nature of correlations between parental monitoring and its key components (parents’ knowledge, child disclosure, parental solicitation and parental control) and rule-breaking behaviour. Additionally, the prediction of the rule-breaking behaviour by parental monitoring variables, age a...

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Zhaohui; Bresell, Anders; Steinberg, Mark H; Silberg, Debra G; Furlong, Stephen T

2012-01-01

The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information. Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results. Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy's law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests. It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones.

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Senjem, Matthew L; Gunter, Jeffrey L; Lowe, Val J; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2016-01-01

Beta-amyloid (Aβ) deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA) and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS). While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified) and PAOS (n = 42) subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+) status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified PPA subjects.

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L. Whitwell

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Beta-amyloid (Aβ deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS. While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified and PAOS (n = 42 subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+ status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified

Automated interpretable computational biology in the clinic: a framework to predict disease severity and stratify patients from clinical data

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Soumya Banerjee

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We outline an automated computational and machine learning framework that predicts disease severity and stratifies patients. We apply our framework to available clinical data. Our algorithm automatically generates insights and predicts disease severity with minimal operator intervention. The computational framework presented here can be used to stratify patients, predict disease severity and propose novel biomarkers for disease. Insights from machine learning algorithms coupled with clinical data may help guide therapy, personalize treatment and help clinicians understand the change in disease over time. Computational techniques like these can be used in translational medicine in close collaboration with clinicians and healthcare providers. Our models are also interpretable, allowing clinicians with minimal machine learning experience to engage in model building. This work is a step towards automated machine learning in the clinic.

Decision support system for triage management: A hybrid approach using rule-based reasoning and fuzzy logic.

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Dehghani Soufi, Mahsa; Samad-Soltani, Taha; Shams Vahdati, Samad; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman

2018-06-01

Fast and accurate patient triage for the response process is a critical first step in emergency situations. This process is often performed using a paper-based mode, which intensifies workload and difficulty, wastes time, and is at risk of human errors. This study aims to design and evaluate a decision support system (DSS) to determine the triage level. A combination of the Rule-Based Reasoning (RBR) and Fuzzy Logic Classifier (FLC) approaches were used to predict the triage level of patients according to the triage specialist's opinions and Emergency Severity Index (ESI) guidelines. RBR was applied for modeling the first to fourth decision points of the ESI algorithm. The data relating to vital signs were used as input variables and modeled using fuzzy logic. Narrative knowledge was converted to If-Then rules using XML. The extracted rules were then used to create the rule-based engine and predict the triage levels. Fourteen RBR and 27 fuzzy rules were extracted and used in the rule-based engine. The performance of the system was evaluated using three methods with real triage data. The accuracy of the clinical decision support systems (CDSSs; in the test data) was 99.44%. The evaluation of the error rate revealed that, when using the traditional method, 13.4% of the patients were miss-triaged, which is statically significant. The completeness of the documentation also improved from 76.72% to 98.5%. Designed system was effective in determining the triage level of patients and it proved helpful for nurses as they made decisions, generated nursing diagnoses based on triage guidelines. The hybrid approach can reduce triage misdiagnosis in a highly accurate manner and improve the triage outcomes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A retrospective study of two populations to test a simple rule for spirometry.

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Ohar, Jill A; Yawn, Barbara P; Ruppel, Gregg L; Donohue, James F

2016-06-04

Chronic lung disease is common and often under-diagnosed. To test a simple rule for conducting spirometry we reviewed spirograms from two populations, occupational medicine evaluations (OME) conducted by Saint Louis and Wake Forest Universities at 3 sites (n = 3260, mean age 64.14 years, 95 % CI 58.94-69.34, 97 % men) and conducted by Wake Forest University preop clinic (POC) at one site (n = 845, mean age 62.10 years, 95 % CI 50.46-73.74, 57 % men). This retrospective review of database information that the first author collected prospectively identified rates, types, sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive value for lung function abnormalities and associated mortality rate found when conducting spirometry based on the 20/40 rule (≥20 years of smoking in those aged ≥ 40 years) in the OME population. To determine the reproducibility of the 20/40 rule for conducting spirometry, the rule was applied to the POC population. A lung function abnormality was found in 74 % of the OME population and 67 % of the POC population. Sensitivity of the rule was 85 % for an obstructive pattern and 77 % for any abnormality on spirometry. Positive and negative predictive values of the rule for a spirometric abnormality were 74 and 55 %, respectively. Patients with an obstructive pattern were at greater risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.39 [confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.93] vs. normal) and death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.53, 95 % CI 1.20-1.84) than subjects with normal spirometry. Restricted spirometry patterns were also associated with greater risk of coronary disease (odds ratio (OR) 1.7 [CI 1.23-2.35]) and death (Hazard ratio 1.40, 95 % CI 1.08-1.72). Smokers (≥ 20 pack years) age ≥ 40 years are at an increased risk for lung function abnormalities and those abnormalities are associated with greater presence of coronary heart disease and increased all-cause mortality. Use of the 20/40 rule could provide a

Some uses of predictive probability of success in clinical drug development

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Mauro Gasparini

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Predictive probability of success is a (subjective Bayesian evaluation of the prob- ability of a future successful event in a given state of information. In the context of pharmaceutical clinical drug development, successful events relate to the accrual of positive evidence on the therapy which is being developed, like demonstration of su- perior efficacy or ascertainment of safety. Positive evidence will usually be obtained via standard frequentist tools, according to the regulations imposed in the world of pharmaceutical development.Within a single trial, predictive probability of success can be identified with expected power, i.e. the evaluation of the success probability of the trial. Success means, for example, obtaining a significant result of a standard superiority test.Across trials, predictive probability of success can be the probability of a successful completion of an entire part of clinical development, for example a successful phase III development in the presence of phase II data.Calculations of predictive probability of success in the presence of normal data with known variance will be illustrated, both for within-trial and across-trial predictions.

Clinical presentation and outcome prediction of clinical, serological, and histopathological classification schemes in ANCA-associated vasculitis with renal involvement.

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Córdova-Sánchez, Bertha M; Mejía-Vilet, Juan M; Morales-Buenrostro, Luis E; Loyola-Rodríguez, Georgina; Uribe-Uribe, Norma O; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo

2016-07-01

Several classification schemes have been developed for anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV), with actual debate focusing on their clinical and prognostic performance. Sixty-two patients with renal biopsy-proven AAV from a single center in Mexico City diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 were analyzed and classified under clinical (granulomatosis with polyangiitis [GPA], microscopic polyangiitis [MPA], renal limited vasculitis [RLV]), serological (proteinase 3 anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies [PR3-ANCA], myeloperoxidase anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies [MPO-ANCA], ANCA negative), and histopathological (focal, crescenteric, mixed-type, sclerosing) categories. Clinical presentation parameters were compared at baseline between classification groups, and the predictive value of different classification categories for disease and renal remission, relapse, renal, and patient survival was analyzed. Serological classification predicted relapse rate (PR3-ANCA hazard ratio for relapse 2.93, 1.20-7.17, p = 0.019). There were no differences in disease or renal remission, renal, or patient survival between clinical and serological categories. Histopathological classification predicted response to therapy, with a poorer renal remission rate for sclerosing group and those with less than 25 % normal glomeruli; in addition, it adequately delimited 24-month glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) evolution, but it did not predict renal nor patient survival. On multivariate models, renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement (HR 8.07, CI 1.75-37.4, p = 0.008) and proteinuria (HR 1.49, CI 1.03-2.14, p = 0.034) at presentation predicted renal survival, while age (HR 1.10, CI 1.01-1.21, p = 0.041) and infective events during the induction phase (HR 4.72, 1.01-22.1, p = 0.049) negatively influenced patient survival. At present, ANCA-based serological classification may predict AAV relapses, but neither clinical nor serological

Antecedents and consequences of emotional display rule perceptions.

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Diefendorff, James M; Richard, Erin M

2003-04-01

Central to all theories of emotional labor is the idea that individuals follow emotional display rules that specify the appropriate expression of emotions on the job. This investigation examined antecedents and consequences of emotional display rule perceptions. Full-time working adults (N = 152) from a variety of occupations provided self-report data, and supervisors and coworkers completed measures pertaining to the focal employees. Results using structural equation modeling revealed that job-based interpersonal requirements, supervisor display rule perceptions, and employee extraversion and neuroticism were predictive of employee display rule perceptions. Employee display rule perceptions, in turn, were related to self-reported job satisfaction and coworker ratings of employees' emotional displays on the job. Finally, neuroticism had direct negative relationships with job satisfaction and coworker ratings of employees' emotional displays.

Clinical and functional criteria for predicting asthma in infants

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Yu. L. Mizemitskiy

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: to determine clinical and functional criteria for predicting asthma in children who have sustained acute obstructive bronchitis in infancy. Subjects and methods. A total of 125 infants aged 2 to 36 months who had experienced 1 -2 episodes of acute obstructive bronchitis and treated at hospital were examined when bronchial obstruction syndrome was being relieved. In addition to physical examination, functional studies (computerized bronchophonography and heart rate variability assessment were used. Immunological examination included determination of the serum levels of immunoglobulin E and interleuMn-17A. The infants who had sustained acute obstructive bronchitis were followed up for 12-36 months. Results. The infants who had sustained acute obstructive bronchitis in the presence of mild perinatal CNS damage caused by hypoxia were typified by high respiratory morbidity; early-onset bronchial obstruction; long-term bronchial obstruction relief; high incidence of grade 2 respiratory failure in acute obstructive bronchitis. These patients developed asthma more often than twice and repeated episodes of bronchial obstruction. ROC analysis was used to elaborate clinical and functional criteria for predicting the development of asthma in infants. Conclusion. The proposed additional clinical and functional criteria characterizing external respiratory dysfunction and autonomic homeostatic changes contribute to the early diagnosis of asthma and substantially increase the validity of prediction of its development in children younger than 3 years, which is of great importance for goal-oriented preventive measures.

Predicting inpatient clinical order patterns with probabilistic topic models vs conventional order sets.

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Chen, Jonathan H; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Mackey, Lester; Altman, Russ B

2017-05-01

Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16%, and recall 35%. This can be improved to 0.90, 24%, and 47% ( P  sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Using rule-based machine learning for candidate disease gene prioritization and sample classification of cancer gene expression data.

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Glaab, Enrico; Bacardit, Jaume; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Krasnogor, Natalio

2012-01-01

Microarray data analysis has been shown to provide an effective tool for studying cancer and genetic diseases. Although classical machine learning techniques have successfully been applied to find informative genes and to predict class labels for new samples, common restrictions of microarray analysis such as small sample sizes, a large attribute space and high noise levels still limit its scientific and clinical applications. Increasing the interpretability of prediction models while retaining a high accuracy would help to exploit the information content in microarray data more effectively. For this purpose, we evaluate our rule-based evolutionary machine learning systems, BioHEL and GAssist, on three public microarray cancer datasets, obtaining simple rule-based models for sample classification. A comparison with other benchmark microarray sample classifiers based on three diverse feature selection algorithms suggests that these evolutionary learning techniques can compete with state-of-the-art methods like support vector machines. The obtained models reach accuracies above 90% in two-level external cross-validation, with the added value of facilitating interpretation by using only combinations of simple if-then-else rules. As a further benefit, a literature mining analysis reveals that prioritizations of informative genes extracted from BioHEL's classification rule sets can outperform gene rankings obtained from a conventional ensemble feature selection in terms of the pointwise mutual information between relevant disease terms and the standardized names of top-ranked genes.

Parental monitoring and rule-breaking behaviour in secondary school students

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Kovačević-Lepojević Marina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Parental monitoring is recognised as one of the most important family factors that are associated with rule-breaking behaviour. The objective of this paper is to determine the nature of correlations between parental monitoring and its key components (parents’ knowledge, child disclosure, parental solicitation and parental control and rule-breaking behaviour. Additionally, the prediction of the rule-breaking behaviour by parental monitoring variables, age and gender will be considered. The sample included 507 secondary school students from Belgrade, aged 15 to 18. The data on rule-breaking behaviour were collected through ASEBA YSR/11-18, and on parental monitoring via the Parental monitoring scale. The most important conclusions are the following: the strongest negative correlations are found between parental knowledge and child disclosure with rule-breaking behaviour; child disclosure is the most important source of parental knowledge; the variables of parental monitoring, gender and age explained 31.4% of the variance of rule-breaking behaviour; finally, parental control and age, unlike other variables, did not predict rule-breaking behaviour. Given that parents mostly know how children spend their free time only if the children tell this to them, it is recommended that the prevention programme of rule-breaking behaviour should be oriented towards the improvement of parent-child relationships instead of focusing on parental control and supervision. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 179017: Socijalna participacija osoba sa intelektualnom ometenošću

Sonographic Diagnosis of Tubal Cancer with IOTA Simple Rules Plus Pattern Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Tongsong, Theera; Wanapirak, Chanane; Tantipalakorn, Charuwan; Tinnangwattana, Dangcheewan

2017-11-26

Objective: To evaluate diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition in predicting tubal cancer. Methods: Secondary analysis was performed on prospective database of our IOTA project. The patients recruited in the project were those who were scheduled for pelvic surgery due to adnexal masses. The patients underwent ultrasound examinations within 24 hours before surgery. On ultrasound examination, the masses were evaluated using the well-established IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition (sausage-shaped appearance, incomplete septum, visible ipsilateral ovaries) to predict tubal cancer. The gold standard diagnosis was based on histological findings or operative findings. Results: A total of 482 patients, including 15 cases of tubal cancer, were evaluated by ultrasound preoperatively. The IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition gave a sensitivity of 86.7% (13 in 15) and specificity of 97.4%. Sausage-shaped appearance was identified in nearly all cases (14 in 15). Incomplete septa and normal ovaries could be identified in 33.3% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion: IOTA simple rules plus pattern recognition is relatively effective in predicting tubal cancer. Thus, we propose the simple scheme in diagnosis of tubal cancer as follows. First of all, the adnexal masses are evaluated with IOTA simple rules. If the B-rules could be applied, tubal cancer is reliably excluded. If the M-rules could be applied or the result is inconclusive, careful delineation of the mass with pattern recognition should be performed. Creative Commons Attribution License

Sum rules for charge transition density

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gul' karov, I S [Tashkentskij Politekhnicheskij Inst. (USSR)

1979-01-01

The form factors of the quadrupole and octupole oscillations of the /sup 12/C nucleus are compared with the predictions of the sum rules for the charge transition density (CTD). These rules allow one to obtain various CTDs which contain the components k: r/sup lambda + 2k-2/rho(r) and r/sup lambda + 2k-1)(drho(r)/dr) (k = 0, 1, 2...) and can be applied to analyze the inelastic scattering of high energy particles by nuclei. It is shown that the CTD under consideration have different radius dependence and describe the data essentially better (though ambiguously) than the Tassy and Steinwedel-Jensen models do. Recurrence formulas are derived for the ratios of the higher-order transition matrix elements and CTD. These formulas can be used to predict the CTD behavior for highly excited nuclear states.

Pressure Ulcers in Adults: Prediction and Prevention. Clinical Practice Guideline Number 3.

Science.gov (United States)

Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (DHHS/PHS), Rockville, MD.

This package includes a clinical practice guideline, quick reference guide for clinicians, and patient's guide to predicting and preventing pressure ulcers in adults. The clinical practice guideline includes the following: overview of the incidence and prevalence of pressure ulcers; clinical practice guideline (introduction, risk assessment tools…

FDA publishes conflict of interest rules for clinical trials. Food and Drug Administration.

Science.gov (United States)

James, J S

1998-03-06

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published new rules defining conflict of interests between drug companies and medical researchers and clinicians. Certain financial arrangements will need to be disclosed, although the FDA estimates that only one to ten percent of pharmaceutical companies will need to submit disclosures for one or more of their investigators. The purpose of the new rule is to prevent bias in safety and efficacy studies of drugs and medical devices. The full rule is published in the Federal Register.

How to escape from haller's rule

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woude, van der Emma; Smid, Hans M.

2016-01-01

While Haller's rule states that small animals have relatively larger brains, minute Trichogramma evanescens Westwood (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) parasitic wasps scale brain size linearly with body size. This linear brain scaling allows them to decrease brain size beyond the predictions of

Medicare program; revisions to payment policies under the physician fee schedule, clinical laboratory fee schedule & other revisions to Part B for CY 2014. Final rule with comment period.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-10

This major final rule with comment period addresses changes to the physician fee schedule, clinical laboratory fee schedule, and other Medicare Part B payment policies to ensure that our payment systems are updated to reflect changes in medical practice and the relative value of services. This final rule with comment period also includes a discussion in the Supplementary Information regarding various programs. (See the Table of Contents for a listing of the specific issues addressed in the final rule with comment period.)

Prediction of polycystic ovarian syndrome based on ultrasound findings and clinical parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Moschos, Elysia; Twickler, Diane M

2015-03-01

To determine the accuracy of sonographic-diagnosed polycystic ovaries and clinical parameters in predicting polycystic ovarian syndrome. Medical records and ultrasounds of 151 women with sonographically diagnosed polycystic ovaries were reviewed. Sonographic criteria for polycystic ovaries were based on 2003 Rotterdam European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology/American Society for Reproductive Medicine guidelines: at least one ovary with 12 or more follicles measuring 2-9 mm and/or increased ovarian volume >10 cm(3) . Clinical variables of age, gravidity, ethnicity, body mass index, and sonographic indication were collected. One hundred thirty-five patients had final outcomes (presence/absence of polycystic ovarian syndrome). Polycystic ovarian syndrome was diagnosed if a patient had at least one other of the following two criteria: oligo/chronic anovulation and/or clinical/biochemical hyperandrogenism. A logistic regression model was constructed using stepwise selection to identify variables significantly associated with polycystic ovarian syndrome (p polycystic ovaries and 115 (89.8%) had polycystic ovarian syndrome (p = .009). Lower gravidity, abnormal bleeding, and body mass index >33 were significant in predicting polycystic ovarian syndrome (receiver operating characteristics curve, c = 0.86). Pain decreased the likelihood of polycystic ovarian syndrome. Polycystic ovaries on ultrasound were sensitive in predicting polycystic ovarian syndrome. Ultrasound, combined with clinical parameters, can be used to generate a predictive index for polycystic ovarian syndrome. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A generalization of Hamilton's rule--love others how much?

Science.gov (United States)

Alger, Ingela; Weibull, Jörgen W

2012-04-21

According to Hamilton's (1964a, b) rule, a costly action will be undertaken if its fitness cost to the actor falls short of the discounted benefit to the recipient, where the discount factor is Wright's index of relatedness between the two. We propose a generalization of this rule, and show that if evolution operates at the level of behavior rules, rather than directly at the level of actions, evolution will select behavior rules that induce a degree of cooperation that may differ from that predicted by Hamilton's rule as applied to actions. In social dilemmas there will be less (more) cooperation than under Hamilton's rule if the actions are strategic substitutes (complements). Our approach is based on natural selection, defined in terms of personal (direct) fitness, and applies to a wide range of pairwise interactions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rule extraction from minimal neural networks for credit card screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Setiono, Rudy; Baesens, Bart; Mues, Christophe

2011-08-01

While feedforward neural networks have been widely accepted as effective tools for solving classification problems, the issue of finding the best network architecture remains unresolved, particularly so in real-world problem settings. We address this issue in the context of credit card screening, where it is important to not only find a neural network with good predictive performance but also one that facilitates a clear explanation of how it produces its predictions. We show that minimal neural networks with as few as one hidden unit provide good predictive accuracy, while having the added advantage of making it easier to generate concise and comprehensible classification rules for the user. To further reduce model size, a novel approach is suggested in which network connections from the input units to this hidden unit are removed by a very straightaway pruning procedure. In terms of predictive accuracy, both the minimized neural networks and the rule sets generated from them are shown to compare favorably with other neural network based classifiers. The rules generated from the minimized neural networks are concise and thus easier to validate in a real-life setting.

The diamond rule for multi-loop Feynman diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruijl, B.; Ueda, T.; Vermaseren, J.A.M.

2015-01-01

An important aspect of improving perturbative predictions in high energy physics is efficiently reducing dimensionally regularised Feynman integrals through integration by parts (IBP) relations. The well-known triangle rule has been used to achieve simple reduction schemes. In this work we introduce an extensible, multi-loop version of the triangle rule, which we refer to as the diamond rule. Such a structure appears frequently in higher-loop calculations. We derive an explicit solution for the recursion, which prevents spurious poles in intermediate steps of the computations. Applications for massless propagator type diagrams at three, four, and five loops are discussed

Comparing 2 Whiplash Grading Systems to Predict Clinical Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Croft, Arthur C; Bagherian, Alireza; Mickelsen, Patrick K; Wagner, Stephen

2016-06-01

Two whiplash severity grading systems have been developed: Quebec Task Force on Whiplash-Associated Disorders (QTF-WAD) and the Croft grading system. The majority of clinical studies to date have used the modified grading system published by the QTF-WAD in 1995 and have demonstrated some ability to predict outcome. But most studies include only injuries of lower severity (grades 1 and 2), preventing a broader interpretation. The purpose of this study was assess the ability of these grading systems to predict clinical outcome within the context of a broader injury spectrum. This study evaluated both grading systems for their ability to predict the bivalent outcome, recovery, within a sample of 118 whiplash patients who were part of a previous case-control designed study. Of these, 36% (controls) had recovered, and 64% (cases) had not recovered. The discrete bivariate distribution between recovery status and whiplash grade was analyzed using the 2-tailed cross-tabulation statistics. Applying the criteria of the original 1993 Croft grading system, the subset comprised 1 grade 1 injury, 32 grade 2 injuries, 53 grade 3 injuries, and 32 grade 4 injuries. Applying the criteria of the modified (QTF-WAD) grading system, there were 1 grade 1 injury, 89 grade 2 injuries, and 28 grade 3 injuries. Both whiplash grading systems correlated negatively with recovery; that is, higher severity grades predicted a lower probability of recovery, and statistically significant correlations were observed in both, but the Croft grading system substantially outperformed the QTF-WAD system on this measure. The Croft grading system for whiplash injury severity showed a better predictive measure for recovery status from whiplash injuries as compared with the QTF-WAD grading system.

Efficacy and predictive value of clinical stage in non-surgical patients with esophageal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiao; Wang Guiqi; He Shun

2014-01-01

Objective: To investigate the efficacy and predictive value of clinical stage in non-surgical patients with esophageal cancer (EC). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in 358 EC patients who underwent radical surgery in our hospital from April 2003 to October 2010 and who had preoperative work-up including endoscopic esophageal ultrasound (EUS), esophagoscopy, thoracic CT scans,and contrast esophagography and had detailed information on postoperative pathological stages. The predictive value of preoperative clinical T/N stage based on EUS + CT for postoperative pathological stage was analyzed. The disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed according to the UICC TNM classification (2002/ 2009) and the clinical stage based on imaging findings. Results: The median follow-up was 47 months.A total of 305 (85.2%) of all patients were analyzed by clinical stage based on EUS + CT.Among them, the predictive value of clinical T stage for pathological T stage was 0-88.6%, highest (88.6%) for T1 stage and lowest for T4 stage. The predictive value of clinical N stage (N 0 /N1) was 62.5-100%. The significant differences in OS and DFS rates based on both 2002 and 2009 UICC TNM classifications were noted (P=0.000 and 0.000). There were significant differences in OS between stage groups, except the comparison between two stage Ⅳ patients and other groups, according to 2002 UICC TNM classification. There were usually insignificant differences in OS between stage groups, according to 2009 UICC TNM classification. For the 305 patients staged clinically based on EUS and CT according to 2002 UICC TNM classification, significant differences in OS and DFS rates were noted (P=0.000 and 0.000). Conclusions: Imaging modalities show good predictive value for N stage (N0/N1),even though they cannot accurately provide the number of metastatic lymph nodes. The clinical stage based on EUS + CT can effectively predict the prognosis of non-surgical EC patients

Predictive genomics: a cancer hallmark network framework for predicting tumor clinical phenotypes using genome sequencing data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor-McCourt, Maureen

2015-02-01

Tumor genome sequencing leads to documenting thousands of DNA mutations and other genomic alterations. At present, these data cannot be analyzed adequately to aid in the understanding of tumorigenesis and its evolution. Moreover, we have little insight into how to use these data to predict clinical phenotypes and tumor progression to better design patient treatment. To meet these challenges, we discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modeling genome sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. The framework includes: (1) cancer hallmarks that can be represented by a few molecular/signaling networks. 'Network operational signatures' which represent gene regulatory logics/strengths enable to quantify state transitions and measures of hallmark traits. Thus, sets of genomic alterations which are associated with network operational signatures could be linked to the state/measure of hallmark traits. The network operational signature transforms genotypic data (i.e., genomic alterations) to regulatory phenotypic profiles (i.e., regulatory logics/strengths), to cellular phenotypic profiles (i.e., hallmark traits) which lead to clinical phenotypic profiles (i.e., a collection of hallmark traits). Furthermore, the framework considers regulatory logics of the hallmark networks under tumor evolutionary dynamics and therefore also includes: (2) a self-promoting positive feedback loop that is dominated by a genomic instability network and a cell survival/proliferation network is the main driver of tumor clonal evolution. Surrounding tumor stroma and its host immune systems shape the evolutionary paths; (3) cell motility initiating metastasis is a byproduct of the above self-promoting loop activity during tumorigenesis; (4) an emerging hallmark network which triggers genome duplication dominates a feed-forward loop which in turn could act as a rate-limiting step for tumor formation; (5) mutations and other genomic alterations have

A modified Miner rule to predict crack initiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taheri, S.

1992-07-01

We propose a damage cumulation rule and an upper bound of cumulated damage before propagation using: linear damage function, linear cumulation in proportional or non proportional loading in presence of overloading or ratchetting. We take into account effect of prehardening on Cyclic Stress Strain Curve (C.S.S.C), and define a non proportional state cyclically equivalent to an uniaxial one. We show an important difference between a load controlled and a strain controlled experiment for difficult cross-slip materials as 316 stainless steel described by a non stable C.S.S.C. (author). 17 refs., 10 figs

Magnetic resonance imaging and morphometric histologic analysis of prostate tissue composition in predicting the clinical outcome of terazosin therapy in benign prostatic hyperplasia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Isen, K. [Karaelmas Univ., Zonguldak (Turkey). School of Medicine; Sinik, Z.; Alkibay, T.; Sezer, C.; Soezen, S.; Atilla, S.; Ataoglu, O.; Isik, S.

2001-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or quantitative color-imaged morphometric analysis (MA) of the prostate gland are related to the clinical response to terazosin. Thirty-six male patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with a serum prostate-specific antigen level of 4-10 ng/mL underwent MRI with body coil, transrectal prostate unltrasonography and biopsy prior to terazosin therapy. For MRI-determined stromal and non-stromal BPH, the ratio of the signal intensity of the inner gland to the obturator internus muscle was evaluated. Histologic sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin. The MA of the specimens was performed by Samba 2000. Results of the two techniques were interpreted according to the terazosin therapy results. The mean stromal percentage was 60.5{+-}18.0%. No statistically significant relationship was found between the clinical outcome of terazosin and the MRI findings. The MA results showed a significant relationship between the percentage of stroma and the percent change of the peak urinary flow rate, but not with the percent change of the international prostate symptom score after terazosin therapy (P<0.05). Magnetic resonance imaging alone is not sufficient in predicting the response to terazosin therapy. Morphometric analysis of BPH tissue composition can be used in predicting the clinical outcome of terazosin therapy but it is suitable only in patients for whom prostatic biopsy is necessary in order to rule out prostate cancer. (author)

Magnetic resonance imaging and morphometric histologic analysis of prostate tissue composition in predicting the clinical outcome of terazosin therapy in benign prostatic hyperplasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isen, K.; Sinik, Z.; Alkibay, T.; Sezer, C.; Soezen, S.; Atilla, S.; Ataoglu, O.; Isik, S.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or quantitative color-imaged morphometric analysis (MA) of the prostate gland are related to the clinical response to terazosin. Thirty-six male patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with a serum prostate-specific antigen level of 4-10 ng/mL underwent MRI with body coil, transrectal prostate unltrasonography and biopsy prior to terazosin therapy. For MRI-determined stromal and non-stromal BPH, the ratio of the signal intensity of the inner gland to the obturator internus muscle was evaluated. Histologic sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin. The MA of the specimens was performed by Samba 2000. Results of the two techniques were interpreted according to the terazosin therapy results. The mean stromal percentage was 60.5±18.0%. No statistically significant relationship was found between the clinical outcome of terazosin and the MRI findings. The MA results showed a significant relationship between the percentage of stroma and the percent change of the peak urinary flow rate, but not with the percent change of the international prostate symptom score after terazosin therapy (P<0.05). Magnetic resonance imaging alone is not sufficient in predicting the response to terazosin therapy. Morphometric analysis of BPH tissue composition can be used in predicting the clinical outcome of terazosin therapy but it is suitable only in patients for whom prostatic biopsy is necessary in order to rule out prostate cancer. (author)

Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

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Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

2018-04-17

In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Violence risk prediction. Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist.

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Dolan, M; Doyle, M

2000-10-01

Violence risk prediction is a priority issue for clinicians working with mentally disordered offenders. To review the current status of violence risk prediction research. Literature search (Medline). Key words: violence, risk prediction, mental disorder. Systematic/structured risk assessment approaches may enhance the accuracy of clinical prediction of violent outcomes. Data on the predictive validity of available clinical risk assessment tools are based largely on American and North American studies and further validation is required in British samples. The Psychopathy Checklist appears to be a key predictor of violent recidivism in a variety of settings. Violence risk prediction is an inexact science and as such will continue to provoke debate. Clinicians clearly need to be able to demonstrate the rationale behind their decisions on violence risk and much can be learned from recent developments in research on violence risk prediction.

Prediction of higher cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to clinical complexity. A validated clinical index.

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, Cesar; Pérez, Inaki; Podzamczer, Daniel; Llibre, Josep Maria; Domingo, Pere; González-García, Juan; Puig, Inma; Ayala, Pilar; Martín, Mayte; Trilla, Antoni; Lázaro, Pablo; Gatell, Josep Maria

2016-03-01

The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population. To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population. Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs. In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16). The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

CRISPR-Cas9-mediated saturated mutagenesis screen predicts clinical drug resistance with improved accuracy.

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Ma, Leyuan; Boucher, Jeffrey I; Paulsen, Janet; Matuszewski, Sebastian; Eide, Christopher A; Ou, Jianhong; Eickelberg, Garrett; Press, Richard D; Zhu, Lihua Julie; Druker, Brian J; Branford, Susan; Wolfe, Scot A; Jensen, Jeffrey D; Schiffer, Celia A; Green, Michael R; Bolon, Daniel N

2017-10-31

Developing tools to accurately predict the clinical prevalence of drug-resistant mutations is a key step toward generating more effective therapeutics. Here we describe a high-throughput CRISPR-Cas9-based saturated mutagenesis approach to generate comprehensive libraries of point mutations at a defined genomic location and systematically study their effect on cell growth. As proof of concept, we mutagenized a selected region within the leukemic oncogene BCR-ABL1 Using bulk competitions with a deep-sequencing readout, we analyzed hundreds of mutations under multiple drug conditions and found that the effects of mutations on growth in the presence or absence of drug were critical for predicting clinically relevant resistant mutations, many of which were cancer adaptive in the absence of drug pressure. Using this approach, we identified all clinically isolated BCR-ABL1 mutations and achieved a prediction score that correlated highly with their clinical prevalence. The strategy described here can be broadly applied to a variety of oncogenes to predict patient mutations and evaluate resistance susceptibility in the development of new therapeutics. Published under the PNAS license.

Using rule-based machine learning for candidate disease gene prioritization and sample classification of cancer gene expression data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Glaab

Full Text Available Microarray data analysis has been shown to provide an effective tool for studying cancer and genetic diseases. Although classical machine learning techniques have successfully been applied to find informative genes and to predict class labels for new samples, common restrictions of microarray analysis such as small sample sizes, a large attribute space and high noise levels still limit its scientific and clinical applications. Increasing the interpretability of prediction models while retaining a high accuracy would help to exploit the information content in microarray data more effectively. For this purpose, we evaluate our rule-based evolutionary machine learning systems, BioHEL and GAssist, on three public microarray cancer datasets, obtaining simple rule-based models for sample classification. A comparison with other benchmark microarray sample classifiers based on three diverse feature selection algorithms suggests that these evolutionary learning techniques can compete with state-of-the-art methods like support vector machines. The obtained models reach accuracies above 90% in two-level external cross-validation, with the added value of facilitating interpretation by using only combinations of simple if-then-else rules. As a further benefit, a literature mining analysis reveals that prioritizations of informative genes extracted from BioHEL's classification rule sets can outperform gene rankings obtained from a conventional ensemble feature selection in terms of the pointwise mutual information between relevant disease terms and the standardized names of top-ranked genes.

Addition of host genetic variants in a prediction rule for post meningitis hearing loss in childhood: a model updating study.

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Sanders, Marieke S; de Jonge, Rogier C J; Terwee, Caroline B; Heymans, Martijn W; Koomen, Irene; Ouburg, Sander; Spanjaard, Lodewijk; Morré, Servaas A; van Furth, A Marceline

2013-07-23

Sensorineural hearing loss is the most common sequela in survivors of bacterial meningitis (BM). In the past we developed a validated prediction model to identify children at risk for post-meningitis hearing loss. It is known that host genetic variations, besides clinical factors, contribute to severity and outcome of BM. In this study it was determined whether host genetic risk factors improve the predictive abilities of an existing model regarding hearing loss after childhood BM. Four hundred and seventy-one Dutch Caucasian childhood BM were genotyped for 11 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in seven different genes involved in pathogen recognition. Genetic data were added to the original clinical prediction model and performance of new models was compared to the original model by likelihood ratio tests and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves. Addition of TLR9-1237 SNPs and the combination of TLR2 + 2477 and TLR4 + 896 SNPs improved the clinical prediction model, but not significantly (increase of AUC's from 0.856 to 0.861 and from 0.856 to 0.875 (p = 0.570 and 0.335, respectively). Other SNPs analysed were not linked to hearing loss. Although addition of genetic risk factors did not significantly improve the clinical prediction model for post-meningitis hearing loss, AUC's of the pre-existing model remain high after addition of genetic factors. Future studies should evaluate whether more combinations of SNPs in larger cohorts has an additional value to the existing prediction model for post meningitis hearing loss.

Ensemble Classifiers for Predicting HIV-1 Resistance from Three Rule-Based Genotypic Resistance Interpretation Systems.

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Raposo, Letícia M; Nobre, Flavio F

2017-08-30

Resistance to antiretrovirals (ARVs) is a major problem faced by HIV-infected individuals. Different rule-based algorithms were developed to infer HIV-1 susceptibility to antiretrovirals from genotypic data. However, there is discordance between them, resulting in difficulties for clinical decisions about which treatment to use. Here, we developed ensemble classifiers integrating three interpretation algorithms: Agence Nationale de Recherche sur le SIDA (ANRS), Rega, and the genotypic resistance interpretation system from Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVdb). Three approaches were applied to develop a classifier with a single resistance profile: stacked generalization, a simple plurality vote scheme and the selection of the interpretation system with the best performance. The strategies were compared with the Friedman's test and the performance of the classifiers was evaluated using the F-measure, sensitivity and specificity values. We found that the three strategies had similar performances for the selected antiretrovirals. For some cases, the stacking technique with naïve Bayes as the learning algorithm showed a statistically superior F-measure. This study demonstrates that ensemble classifiers can be an alternative tool for clinical decision-making since they provide a single resistance profile from the most commonly used resistance interpretation systems.

A prospective cohort study on the clinical utility of second trimester mean arterial blood pressure in the prediction of late-onset preeclampsia among Nigerian women.

Science.gov (United States)

Udenze, I C; Arikawe, A P; Makwe, C C; Olowoselu, O F

2017-06-01

Early detection of preeclampsia will help reduce the morbidities and mortalities associated with the disorder. Late-onset preeclampsia was the predominant presentation in this cohort. The search for biomarkers for predicting preeclampsia is still ongoing. Mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), which has the advantage of presenting a single cutoff value compared with the use of systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements, merits evaluation. The study aims to evaluate the clinical utility of second trimester MABP in the prediction of preeclampsia. This was a prospective cohort study of 155 normotensive, nonproteinuric pregnant women without prior history of gestational hypertension. The women were booked patients attending the antenatal clinic at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital and were all in their second trimesters of pregnancy. The outcome measures were systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and MABP. The end point of the study was the development of preeclampsia. The diagnosis of preeclampsia was made by the attending obstetrician. The data were analyzed using the IBM SPSS statistical software. Statistical significance was set at P blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and MABP values in the group of women who later developed preeclampsia, P = 0.005, 0.001, and area under the receiver-operative characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.732 (95% confidence interval, 0.544-0.919, P = 0.011). The negative predictive value (NPV) was 88.88% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 45.45%, P AUC of 0.732, MABP performed moderately (considering that excellent performance has an AUC of 1.0) in the prediction of late-onset preeclampsia in Nigerian women. Its high NPV suggests a strong ability to rule out preeclampsia and help to appropriate management.

Predicted Interval Plots (PIPS): A Graphical Tool for Data Monitoring of Clinical Trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lingling; Evans, Scott R; Uno, Hajime; Wei, L J

2009-11-01

Group sequential designs are often used in clinical trials to evaluate efficacy and/or futility. Many methods have been developed for different types of endpoints and scenarios. However, few of these methods convey information regarding effect sizes (e.g., treatment differences) and none uses prediction to convey information regarding potential effect size estimates and associated precision, with trial continuation. To address these limitations, Evans et al. (2007) proposed to use prediction and predicted intervals as a flexible and practical tool for quantitative monitoring of clinical trials. In this article, we reaffirm the importance and usefulness of this innovative approach and introduce a graphical summary, predicted interval plots (PIPS), to display the information obtained in the prediction process in a straightforward yet comprehensive manner. We outline the construction of PIPS and apply this method in two examples. The results and the interpretations of the PIPS are discussed.

Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

KAUST Repository

Xie, Qing

2016-02-23

Alzheimer\\'s Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders\\' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD\\'s progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients\\' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer\\'s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

Modeling and Predicting AD Progression by Regression Analysis of Sequential Clinical Data

KAUST Repository

Xie, Qing; Wang, Su; Zhu, Jia; Zhang, Xiangliang

2016-01-01

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is currently attracting much attention in elders' care. As the increasing availability of massive clinical diagnosis data, especially the medical images of brain scan, it is highly significant to precisely identify and predict the potential AD's progression based on the knowledge in the diagnosis data. In this paper, we follow a novel sequential learning framework to model the disease progression for AD patients' care. Different from the conventional approaches using only initial or static diagnosis data to model the disease progression for different durations, we design a score-involved approach and make use of the sequential diagnosis information in different disease stages to jointly simulate the disease progression. The actual clinical scores are utilized in progress to make the prediction more pertinent and reliable. We examined our approach by extensive experiments on the clinical data provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The results indicate that the proposed approach is more effective to simulate and predict the disease progression compared with the existing methods.

Clinical judgement in the era of big data and predictive analytics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chin-Yee, Benjamin; Upshur, Ross

2017-12-13

Clinical judgement is a central and longstanding issue in the philosophy of medicine which has generated significant interest over the past few decades. In this article, we explore different approaches to clinical judgement articulated in the literature, focusing in particular on data-driven, mathematical approaches which we contrast with narrative, virtue-based approaches to clinical reasoning. We discuss the tension between these different clinical epistemologies and further explore the implications of big data and machine learning for a philosophy of clinical judgement. We argue for a pluralistic, integrative approach, and demonstrate how narrative, virtue-based clinical reasoning will remain indispensable in an era of big data and predictive analytics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On sum rules for charge transition density

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gul'karov, I.S.

1979-01-01

The form factors of the quadrupole and octupole oscillations of the 12 C nucleus are compared with the predictions of the sum rules for the charge transition density (CTD). These rules allow to obtain various CTD which contain the components k: rsup(lambda+2k-2)rho(r) and rsup(lambda+2k-1)(drho(r)/dr) (k=0, 1, 2...) and can be applied to analyze the inelastic scattering of high energy particles by nuclei. It is shown that the CTD under consideration have different radius dependence and describe the data essentially better (though ambiguously) than the Tassy and Steinwedel-Jensen models do. The recurrent formulas are derived for the ratios of the higher order transition matrix elements and CTD. These formulas can be used to predict the CTD behaviour for highly excited nuclear states

Scaling Rule for Very Shallow Trench IGBT toward CMOS Process Compatibility

OpenAIRE

Tanaka, Masahiro; Omura, Ichiro

2012-01-01

Deep trench gate is used for latest IGBT to improve device performance. By large difference from deep submicron CMOS structure, there is no process compatibility among CMOS device and trench gate IGBT. We propose IGBT scaling rule for shrinking IGBT cell structure both horizontally and vertically. The scaling rule is theoretically delivered by structure based equations. Device performance improvement was also predicted by TCAD simulations even with very shallow trench gate. The rule enables t...

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cai Z

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Zhaohui Cai,1,* Anders Bresell,2,* Mark H Steinberg,1 Debra G Silberg,1 Stephen T Furlong11AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals, Wilmington, DE, USA; 2AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals, Södertälje, Sweden*These authors contributed equally to this workPurpose: The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline information.Patients and methods: Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results.Results: Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy’s law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests.Conclusion: It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones.Keywords: bilirubin, Hy’s Law, ALT, GGT, baseline, prediction

Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2017-11-28

To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Quality prediction modeling for multistage manufacturing based on classification and association rule mining

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kao Hung-An

2017-01-01

Full Text Available For manufacturing enterprises, product quality is a key factor to assess production capability and increase their core competence. To reduce external failure cost, many research and methodology have been introduced in order to improve process yield rate, such as TQC/TQM, Shewhart CycleDeming's 14 Points, etc. Nowadays, impressive progress has been made in process monitoring and industrial data analysis because of the Industry 4.0 trend. Industries start to utilize quality control (QC methodology to lower inspection overhead and internal failure cost. Currently, the focus of QC is mostly in the inspection of single workstation and final product, however, for multistage manufacturing, many factors (like equipment, operators, parameters, etc. can have cumulative and interactive effects to the final quality. When failure occurs, it is difficult to resume the original settings for cause analysis. To address these problems, this research proposes a combination of principal components analysis (PCA with classification and association rule mining algorithms to extract features representing relationship of multiple workstations, predict final product quality, and analyze the root-cause of product defect. The method is demonstrated on a semiconductor data set.

Aniseikonia quantification: error rate of rule of thumb estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lubkin, V; Shippman, S; Bennett, G; Meininger, D; Kramer, P; Poppinga, P

1999-01-01

To find the error rate in quantifying aniseikonia by using "Rule of Thumb" estimation in comparison with proven space eikonometry. Study 1: 24 adult pseudophakic individuals were measured for anisometropia, and astigmatic interocular difference. Rule of Thumb quantification for prescription was calculated and compared with aniseikonia measurement by the classical Essilor Projection Space Eikonometer. Study 2: parallel analysis was performed on 62 consecutive phakic patients from our strabismus clinic group. Frequency of error: For Group 1 (24 cases): 5 ( or 21 %) were equal (i.e., 1% or less difference); 16 (or 67% ) were greater (more than 1% different); and 3 (13%) were less by Rule of Thumb calculation in comparison to aniseikonia determined on the Essilor eikonometer. For Group 2 (62 cases): 45 (or 73%) were equal (1% or less); 10 (or 16%) were greater; and 7 (or 11%) were lower in the Rule of Thumb calculations in comparison to Essilor eikonometry. Magnitude of error: In Group 1, in 10/24 (29%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 100% or more greater than by space eikonometry, and in 6 of those ten by 200% or more. In Group 2, in 4/62 (6%) aniseikonia by Rule of Thumb estimation was 200% or more greater than by space eikonometry. The frequency and magnitude of apparent clinical errors of Rule of Thumb estimation is disturbingly large. This problem is greatly magnified by the time and effort and cost of prescribing and executing an aniseikonic correction for a patient. The higher the refractive error, the greater the anisometropia, and the worse the errors in Rule of Thumb estimation of aniseikonia. Accurate eikonometric methods and devices should be employed in all cases where such measurements can be made. Rule of thumb estimations should be limited to cases where such subjective testing and measurement cannot be performed, as in infants after unilateral cataract surgery.

Scheduling rules to achieve lead-time targets in outpatient appointment systems

OpenAIRE

Sivakumar, Appa Iyer; Nguyen, Thu Ba Thi; Graves, Stephen C

2015-01-01

This paper considers how to schedule appointments for outpatients, for a clinic that is subject to appointment lead-time targets for both new and returning patients. We develop heuristic rules, which are the exact and relaxed appointment scheduling rules, to schedule each new patient appointment (only) in light of uncertainty about future arrivals. The scheduling rules entail two decisions. First, the rules need to determine whether or not a patient's request can be accepted; then, if the req...

Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgson, L E; Dimitrov, B D; Roderick, P J; Venn, R; Forni, L G

2017-03-08

Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS). External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr). Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration. HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015). On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate

A New Classification Approach Based on Multiple Classification Rules

OpenAIRE

Zhongmei Zhou

2014-01-01

A good classifier can correctly predict new data for which the class label is unknown, so it is important to construct a high accuracy classifier. Hence, classification techniques are much useful in ubiquitous computing. Associative classification achieves higher classification accuracy than some traditional rule-based classification approaches. However, the approach also has two major deficiencies. First, it generates a very large number of association classification rules, especially when t...

Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts with the scoringRules package

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, Alexander; Krüger, Fabian; Lerch, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Over the last decades probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive distributions have become popular in many scientific disciplines. With the proliferation of probabilistic models arises the need for decision-theoretically principled tools to evaluate the appropriateness of models and forecasts in a generalized way in order to better understand sources of prediction errors and to improve the models. Proper scoring rules are functions S(F,y) which evaluate the accuracy of a forecast distribution F , given that an outcome y was observed. In coherence with decision-theoretical principles they allow to compare alternative models, a crucial ability given the variety of theories, data sources and statistical specifications that is available in many situations. This contribution presents the software package scoringRules for the statistical programming language R, which provides functions to compute popular scoring rules such as the continuous ranked probability score for a variety of distributions F that come up in applied work. For univariate variables, two main classes are parametric distributions like normal, t, or gamma distributions, and distributions that are not known analytically, but are indirectly described through a sample of simulation draws. For example, ensemble weather forecasts take this form. The scoringRules package aims to be a convenient dictionary-like reference for computing scoring rules. We offer state of the art implementations of several known (but not routinely applied) formulas, and implement closed-form expressions that were previously unavailable. Whenever more than one implementation variant exists, we offer statistically principled default choices. Recent developments include the addition of scoring rules to evaluate multivariate forecast distributions. The use of the scoringRules package is illustrated in an example on post-processing ensemble forecasts of temperature.

External validation of heart-type fatty acid binding protein, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin, and electrocardiography as rule-out for acute myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hise, Christopher B; Greenslade, Jaimi H; Parsonage, William; Than, Martin; Young, Joanna; Cullen, Louise

2018-02-01

To externally validate a clinical decision rule incorporating heart fatty acid binding protein (h-FABP), high-sensitivity troponin (hs-cTn) and electrocardiogram (ECG) for the detection of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on presentation to the Emergency Department. We also investigated whether this clinical decision rule improved identification of AMI over algorithms incorporating hs-cTn and ECG only. This study included data from 789 patients from the Brisbane ADAPT cohort and 441 patients from the Christchurch TIMI RCT cohort. The primary outcome was index AMI. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the algorithms. 1230 patients were recruited, including 112 (9.1%) with AMI. The algorithm including h-FABP and hs-cTnT had 100% sensitivity and 32.4% specificity. The algorithm utilising h-FABP and hs-cTnI had similar sensitivity (99.1%) and higher specificity (43.4%). The hs-cTnI and hs-cTnT algorithms without h-FABP both had a sensitivity of 98.2%; a result that was not significantly different from either algorithm incorporating h-FABP. Specificity was higher for the hs-cTnI algorithm (68.1%) compared to the hs-cTnT algorithm (33.0%). The specificity of the algorithm incorporating hs-cTnI alone was also significantly higher than both of the algorithms incorporating h-FABP (p<0.01). For patients presenting to the Emergency Department with chest pain, an algorithm incorporating h-FABP, hs-cTn and ECG has high accuracy and can rule out up to 40% of patients. An algorithm incorporating only hs-cTn and ECG has similar sensitivity and may rule out a higher proportion of patients. Each of the algorithms can be used to safely identify patients as low risk for AMI on presentation to the Emergency Department. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. All rights reserved.

Clinical classification in low back pain: best-evidence diagnostic rules based on systematic reviews.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Tom; Laslett, Mark; Juhl, Carsten

2017-05-12

Clinical examination findings are used in primary care to give an initial diagnosis to patients with low back pain and related leg symptoms. The purpose of this study was to develop best evidence Clinical Diagnostic Rules (CDR] for the identification of the most common patho-anatomical disorders in the lumbar spine; i.e. intervertebral discs, sacroiliac joints, facet joints, bone, muscles, nerve roots, muscles, peripheral nerve tissue, and central nervous system sensitization. A sensitive electronic search strategy using MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases was combined with hand searching and citation tracking to identify eligible studies. Criteria for inclusion were: persons with low back pain with or without related leg symptoms, history or physical examination findings suitable for use in primary care, comparison with acceptable reference standards, and statistical reporting permitting calculation of diagnostic value. Quality assessments were made independently by two reviewers using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool. Clinical examination findings that were investigated by at least two studies were included and results that met our predefined threshold of positive likelihood ratio ≥ 2 or negative likelihood ratio ≤ 0.5 were considered for the CDR. Sixty-four studies satisfied our eligible criteria. We were able to construct promising CDRs for symptomatic intervertebral disc, sacroiliac joint, spondylolisthesis, disc herniation with nerve root involvement, and spinal stenosis. Single clinical test appear not to be as useful as clusters of tests that are more closely in line with clinical decision making. This is the first comprehensive systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies that evaluate clinical examination findings for their ability to identify the most common patho-anatomical disorders in the lumbar spine. In some diagnostic categories we have sufficient evidence to recommend a CDR. In others, we have only

Economic evaluation of the one-hour rule-out and rule-in algorithm for acute myocardial infarction using the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T assay in the emergency department.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Apoorva Ambavane

Full Text Available The 1-hour (h algorithm triages patients presenting with suspected acute myocardial infarction (AMI to the emergency department (ED towards "rule-out," "rule-in," or "observation," depending on baseline and 1-h levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn. The economic consequences of applying the accelerated 1-h algorithm are unknown.We performed a post-hoc economic analysis in a large, diagnostic, multicenter study of hs-cTnT using central adjudication of the final diagnosis by two independent cardiologists. Length of stay (LoS, resource utilization (RU, and predicted diagnostic accuracy of the 1-h algorithm compared to standard of care (SoC in the ED were estimated. The ED LoS, RU, and accuracy of the 1-h algorithm was compared to that achieved by the SoC at ED discharge. Expert opinion was sought to characterize clinical implementation of the 1-h algorithm, which required blood draws at ED presentation and 1h, after which "rule-in" patients were transferred for coronary angiography, "rule-out" patients underwent outpatient stress testing, and "observation" patients received SoC. Unit costs were for the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Germany. The sensitivity and specificity for the 1-h algorithm were 87% and 96%, respectively, compared to 69% and 98% for SoC. The mean ED LoS for the 1-h algorithm was 4.3h-it was 6.5h for SoC, which is a reduction of 33%. The 1-h algorithm was associated with reductions in RU, driven largely by the shorter LoS in the ED for patients with a diagnosis other than AMI. The estimated total costs per patient were £2,480 for the 1-h algorithm compared to £4,561 for SoC, a reduction of up to 46%.The analysis shows that the use of 1-h algorithm is associated with reduction in overall AMI diagnostic costs, provided it is carefully implemented in clinical practice. These results need to be prospectively validated in the future.

Clinical presentation at first heart failure hospitalization does not predict recurrent heart failure admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina

2017-11-01

There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Ethics in research: from science fairs to clinical trials, the same golden rules apply

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Wright, C

2011-07-01

Full Text Available opinion and not causing anyone physical harm. Similar ?golden rules? apply when you do research and these are called research ethics. When you decide to do a research project that involves humans or animals, whether you are at school, at university... or a professor, there are important steps and rules that you need to follow. Why? Most importantly the steps and rules are there to protect you, the researcher, from making a mistake that may harm a person or an animal. There are important...

Positive predictive value of albumin: globulin ratio for feline infectious peritonitis in a mid-western referral hospital population.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffery, Unity; Deitz, Krysta; Hostetter, Shannon

2012-12-01

Low albumin to globulin ratio has been found previously to have a high positive predictive value for feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) in cats with clinical signs highly suggestive of the disease. However, FIP can have a more vague clinical presentation. This retrospective study found that the positive predictive value of an albumin:globulin (A:G) ratio of <0.8 and <0.6 was only 12.5% and 25%, respectively, in a group of 100 cats with one or more clinical signs consistent with FIP. The negative predictive value was 100% and 99% for an A:G ratio of <0.8 and A:G<0.6%, respectively. Therefore, when the prevalence of FIP is low, the A:G ratio is useful to rule out FIP but is not helpful in making a positive diagnosis of FIP.

Effect of the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-Out Criteria on Subsequent Thromboembolic Events Among Low-Risk Emergency Department Patients: The PROPER Randomized Clinical Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Freund, Yonathan; Cachanado, Marine; Aubry, Adeline; Orsini, Charlotte; Raynal, Pierre-Alexis; Féral-Pierssens, Anne-Laure; Charpentier, Sandrine; Dumas, Florence; Baarir, Nacera; Truchot, Jennifer; Desmettre, Thibaut; Tazarourte, Karim; Beaune, Sebastien; Leleu, Agathe; Khellaf, Mehdi; Wargon, Mathias; Bloom, Ben; Rousseau, Alexandra; Simon, Tabassome; Riou, Bruno

2018-02-13

The safety of the pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC), an 8-item block of clinical criteria aimed at ruling out pulmonary embolism (PE), has not been assessed in a randomized clinical trial. To prospectively validate the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule out PE. A crossover cluster-randomized clinical noninferiority trial in 14 emergency departments in France. Patients with a low gestalt clinical probability of PE were included from August 2015 to September 2016, and followed up until December 2016. Each center was randomized for the sequence of intervention periods. In the PERC period, the diagnosis of PE was excluded with no further testing if all 8 items of the PERC rule were negative. The primary end point was the occurrence of a thromboembolic event during the 3-month follow-up period that was not initially diagnosed. The noninferiority margin was set at 1.5%. Secondary end points included the rate of computed tomographic pulmonary angiography (CTPA), median length of stay in the emergency department, and rate of hospital admission. Among 1916 patients who were cluster-randomized (mean age 44 years, 980 [51%] women), 962 were assigned to the PERC group and 954 were assigned to the control group. A total of 1749 patients completed the trial. A PE was diagnosed at initial presentation in 26 patients in the control group (2.7%) vs 14 (1.5%) in the PERC group (difference, 1.3% [95% CI, -0.1% to 2.7%]; P = .052). One PE (0.1%) was diagnosed during follow-up in the PERC group vs none in the control group (difference, 0.1% [95% CI, -∞ to 0.8%]). The proportion of patients undergoing CTPA in the PERC group vs control group was 13% vs 23% (difference, -10% [95% CI, -13% to -6%]; P < .001). In the PERC group, rates were significantly reduced for the median length of emergency department stay (mean reduction, 36 minutes [95% CI, 4 to 68]) and hospital admission (difference, 3.3% [95% CI, 0.1% to 6.6%]). Among very low-risk patients with suspected

Logic Learning Machine and standard supervised methods for Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis using gene expression data and clinical variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Parodi, Stefano; Manneschi, Chiara; Verda, Damiano; Ferrari, Enrico; Muselli, Marco

2018-03-01

This study evaluates the performance of a set of machine learning techniques in predicting the prognosis of Hodgkin's lymphoma using clinical factors and gene expression data. Analysed samples from 130 Hodgkin's lymphoma patients included a small set of clinical variables and more than 54,000 gene features. Machine learning classifiers included three black-box algorithms ( k-nearest neighbour, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) and two methods based on intelligible rules (Decision Tree and the innovative Logic Learning Machine method). Support Vector Machine clearly outperformed any of the other methods. Among the two rule-based algorithms, Logic Learning Machine performed better and identified a set of simple intelligible rules based on a combination of clinical variables and gene expressions. Decision Tree identified a non-coding gene ( XIST) involved in the early phases of X chromosome inactivation that was overexpressed in females and in non-relapsed patients. XIST expression might be responsible for the better prognosis of female Hodgkin's lymphoma patients.

Leveraging Bibliographic RDF Data for Keyword Prediction with Association Rule Mining (ARM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nidhi Kushwaha

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The Semantic Web (Web 3.0 has been proposed as an efficient way to access the increasingly large amounts of data on the internet. The Linked Open Data Cloud project at present is the major effort to implement the concepts of the Seamtic Web, addressing the problems of inhomogeneity and large data volumes. RKBExplorer is one of many repositories implementing Open Data and contains considerable bibliographic information. This paper discusses bibliographic data, an important part of cloud data. Effective searching of bibiographic datasets can be a challenge as many of the papers residing in these databases do not have sufficient or comprehensive keyword information. In these cases however, a search engine based on RKBExplorer is only able to use information to retrieve papers based on author names and title of papers without keywords. In this paper we attempt to address this problem by using the data mining algorithm Association Rule Mining (ARM to develop keywords based on features retrieved from Resource Description Framework (RDF data within a bibliographic citation. We have demonstrate the applicability of this method for predicting missing keywords for bibliographic entries in several typical databases. −−−−− Paper presented at 1st International Symposium on Big Data and Cloud Computing Challenges (ISBCC-2014 March 27-28, 2014. Organized by VIT University, Chennai, India. Sponsored by BRNS.

Towards violation of Born's rule: description of a simple experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2011-01-01

Recently a new model with hidden variables of the wave type was elaborated, so called prequantum classical statistical field theory (PCSFT). Roughly speaking PCSFT is a classical signal theory applied to a special class of signals - 'quantum systems'. PCSFT reproduces successfully all probabilistic predictions of QM, including correlations for entangled systems. This model peacefully coexists with all known no-go theorems, including Bell's theorem. In our approach QM is an approximate model. All probabilistic predictions of QM are only (quite good) approximations of 'real physical averages'. The latter are averages with respect to fluctuations of prequantum fields. In particular, Born's rule is only an approximate rule. More precise experiments should demonstrate its violation. We present a simple experiment which has to produce statistical data violating Born's rule. Since the PCSFT-presentation of this experiment may be difficult for experimenters, we reformulate consequences of PCSFT in terms of the conventional wave function. In general, deviation from Born's rule is rather small. We found an experiment amplifying this deviation. We start with a toy example. Then we present a more realistic example based on Gaussian states with very small dispersion.

Informing the design of clinical decision support services for evaluation of children with minor blunt head trauma in the emergency department: a sociotechnical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, Barbara; Nigrovic, Lise E; Dayan, Peter S; Kuppermann, Nathan; Ballard, Dustin W; Alessandrini, Evaline; Bajaj, Lalit; Goldberg, Howard; Hoffman, Jeffrey; Offerman, Steven R; Mark, Dustin G; Swietlik, Marguerite; Tham, Eric; Tzimenatos, Leah; Vinson, David R; Jones, Grant S; Bakken, Suzanne

2013-10-01

Integration of clinical decision support services (CDSS) into electronic health records (EHRs) may be integral to widespread dissemination and use of clinical prediction rules in the emergency department (ED). However, the best way to design such services to maximize their usefulness in such a complex setting is poorly understood. We conducted a multi-site cross-sectional qualitative study whose aim was to describe the sociotechnical environment in the ED to inform the design of a CDSS intervention to implement the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) clinical prediction rules for children with minor blunt head trauma. Informed by a sociotechnical model consisting of eight dimensions, we conducted focus groups, individual interviews and workflow observations in 11 EDs, of which 5 were located in academic medical centers and 6 were in community hospitals. A total of 126 ED clinicians, information technology specialists, and administrators participated. We clustered data into 19 categories of sociotechnical factors through a process of thematic analysis and subsequently organized the categories into a sociotechnical matrix consisting of three high-level sociotechnical dimensions (workflow and communication, organizational factors, human factors) and three themes (interdisciplinary assessment processes, clinical practices related to prediction rules, EHR as a decision support tool). Design challenges that emerged from the analysis included the need to use structured data fields to support data capture and re-use while maintaining efficient care processes, supporting interdisciplinary communication, and facilitating family-clinician interaction for decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rule Extraction from Support Vector Machines: A Geometric Approach

OpenAIRE

Ren, L.

2008-01-01

Despite the success of connectionist systems in prediction and classi¯cation problems, critics argue that the lack of symbol processing and explanation capability makes them less competitive than symbolic systems. Rule extraction from neural networks makes the interpretation of the behaviour of connectionist networks possible by relating sub-symbolic and symbolic process- ing. However, most rule extraction methods focus only on speci¯c neural network architectures and present limited generali...

Role of Transition Zone Index in the Prediction of Clinical Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammet Güzelsoy

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Objective The objective of this study was to determine the role of the transition zone (TZ index (TZI in the prediction of clinical benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH in patients who underwent transurethral prostatectomy (TUR-P and to analyze the correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZ volume (TZV. Materials and Methods Twenty-six male clinical BPH patients with obstructive complaints and 17 male benign prostate enlargement (BPE patients without any complaints were included in the study. Both the groups were over the age of 50. Clinical BPH patients underwent complete TUR-P. Statistical analysis was done with SPSS. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of TZI-as a method of assessing clinical BPH-were measured. Results There was a statistically significant difference in prostate volume, uroflowmetry patterns, prostate-specific antigen (PSA, International prostate symptom score (IPSS, TZV and TZI between the two groups. There was a correlation between TZV and the amount of resected tissue (r=0.97; p0.40 has a high level of sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of clinical BPH among patients who undergo TUR-P due to obstructive symptoms and reported as BPH. There is a strong correlation between the amount of resected tissue and TZV. TZI is a valuable tool in diagnosis, and TZV gives valuable information about the patient to the surgeon.

The Role of Culture and Acculturation in Researchers' Perceptions of Rules in Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Antes, Alison L; English, Tammy; Baldwin, Kari A; DuBois, James M

2018-04-01

Successfully navigating the norms of a society is a complex task that involves recognizing diverse kinds of rules as well as the relative weight attached to them. In the United States (U.S.), different kinds of rules-federal statutes and regulations, scientific norms, and professional ideals-guide the work of researchers. Penalties for violating these different kinds of rules and norms can range from the displeasure of peers to criminal sanctions. We proposed that it would be more difficult for researchers working in the U.S. who were born in other nations to distinguish the seriousness of violating rules across diverse domains. We administered a new measure, the evaluating rules in science task (ERST), to National Institutes of Health-funded investigators (101 born in the U.S. and 102 born outside of the U.S.). The ERST assessed perceptions of the seriousness of violating research regulations, norms, and ideals, and allowed us to calculate the degree to which researchers distinguished between the seriousness of each rule category. The ERST also assessed researchers' predictions of the seriousness that research integrity officers (RIOs) would assign to the rules. We compared researchers' predictions to the seriousness ratings of 112 RIOs working at U.S. research-intensive universities. U.S.-born researchers were significantly better at distinguishing between the seriousness of violating federal research regulations and violating ideals of science, and they were more accurate in their predictions of the views of RIOs. Acculturation to the U.S. moderated the effects of nationality on accuracy. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of future research and education.

Exceptions to the rule: case studies in the prediction of pathogenicity for genetic variants in hereditary cancer genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, E T; Bowles, K R; Pruss, D; van Kan, A; Vail, P J; McElroy, H; Wenstrup, R J

2015-12-01

Based on current consensus guidelines and standard practice, many genetic variants detected in clinical testing are classified as disease causing based on their predicted impact on the normal expression or function of the gene in the absence of additional data. However, our laboratory has identified a subset of such variants in hereditary cancer genes for which compelling contradictory evidence emerged after the initial evaluation following the first observation of the variant. Three representative examples of variants in BRCA1, BRCA2 and MSH2 that are predicted to disrupt splicing, prematurely truncate the protein, or remove the start codon were evaluated for pathogenicity by analyzing clinical data with multiple classification algorithms. Available clinical data for all three variants contradicts the expected pathogenic classification. These variants illustrate potential pitfalls associated with standard approaches to variant classification as well as the challenges associated with monitoring data, updating classifications, and reporting potentially contradictory interpretations to the clinicians responsible for translating test outcomes to appropriate clinical action. It is important to address these challenges now as the model for clinical testing moves toward the use of large multi-gene panels and whole exome/genome analysis, which will dramatically increase the number of genetic variants identified. © 2015 The Authors. Clinical Genetics published by John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Magnetic susceptibility and M1 transitions in /sup 208/Pb. [Sum rules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Traini, M; Lipparini, E; Orlandini, G; Stringari, S [Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Universita di Trento, Italy

1979-04-16

M1 transitions in /sup 208/Pb are studied by evaluating energy-weighted and inverse energy-weighted sum-rules. The role of the nuclear interaction is widely discussed. It is shown that the nuclear potential increases the energy-weighted sum rule and lowers the inverse energy-weighted sum rule, with respect to the prediction of the pure shell model. Values of strengths and excitation energies are compared with experimental results and other theoretical calculations.

LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

2001-01-01

This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

2017-08-01

Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

Decision making under internal uncertainty: the case of multiple-choice tests with different scoring rules.

Science.gov (United States)

Bereby-Meyer, Yoella; Meyer, Joachim; Budescu, David V

2003-02-01

This paper assesses framing effects on decision making with internal uncertainty, i.e., partial knowledge, by focusing on examinees' behavior in multiple-choice (MC) tests with different scoring rules. In two experiments participants answered a general-knowledge MC test that consisted of 34 solvable and 6 unsolvable items. Experiment 1 studied two scoring rules involving Positive (only gains) and Negative (only losses) scores. Although answering all items was the dominating strategy for both rules, the results revealed a greater tendency to answer under the Negative scoring rule. These results are in line with the predictions derived from Prospect Theory (PT) [Econometrica 47 (1979) 263]. The second experiment studied two scoring rules, which allowed respondents to exhibit partial knowledge. Under the Inclusion-scoring rule the respondents mark all answers that could be correct, and under the Exclusion-scoring rule they exclude all answers that might be incorrect. As predicted by PT, respondents took more risks under the Inclusion rule than under the Exclusion rule. The results illustrate that the basic process that underlies choice behavior under internal uncertainty and especially the effect of framing is similar to the process of choice under external uncertainty and can be described quite accurately by PT. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

The Predictive Value of Ultrasound Learning Curves Across Simulated and Clinical Settings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Mette E; Nørgaard, Lone N; Tabor, Ann

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation-based tra......OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation......-based training program in transvaginal sonography. The training was conducted on a VR simulator as well as on a physical mannequin. A subgroup of 6 participants underwent subsequent clinical training. During each of the 3 steps, the participants' performance was assessed using instruments with established...... settings. RESULTS: A good correlation was found between time needed to achieve predefined performance levels on the VR simulator and the physical mannequin (Pearson correlation coefficient .78; P VR simulator correlated well to the clinical performance scores (Pearson...

Quantifying prognosis with risk predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pace, Nathan L; Eberhart, Leopold H J; Kranke, Peter R

2012-01-01

Prognosis is a forecast, based on present observations in a patient, of their probable outcome from disease, surgery and so on. Research methods for the development of risk probabilities may not be familiar to some anaesthesiologists. We briefly describe methods for identifying risk factors and risk scores. A probability prediction rule assigns a risk probability to a patient for the occurrence of a specific event. Probability reflects the continuum between absolute certainty (Pi = 1) and certified impossibility (Pi = 0). Biomarkers and clinical covariates that modify risk are known as risk factors. The Pi as modified by risk factors can be estimated by identifying the risk factors and their weighting; these are usually obtained by stepwise logistic regression. The accuracy of probabilistic predictors can be separated into the concepts of 'overall performance', 'discrimination' and 'calibration'. Overall performance is the mathematical distance between predictions and outcomes. Discrimination is the ability of the predictor to rank order observations with different outcomes. Calibration is the correctness of prediction probabilities on an absolute scale. Statistical methods include the Brier score, coefficient of determination (Nagelkerke R2), C-statistic and regression calibration. External validation is the comparison of the actual outcomes to the predicted outcomes in a new and independent patient sample. External validation uses the statistical methods of overall performance, discrimination and calibration and is uniformly recommended before acceptance of the prediction model. Evidence from randomised controlled clinical trials should be obtained to show the effectiveness of risk scores for altering patient management and patient outcomes.

Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

2013-01-01

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

Child personality facets and overreactive parenting as predictors of aggression and rule-breaking trajectories from childhood to adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Becht, Andrik I; Prinzie, Peter; Deković, Maja; van den Akker, Alithe L; Shiner, Rebecca L

2016-05-01

This study examined trajectories of aggression and rule breaking during the transition from childhood to adolescence (ages 9-15), and determined whether these trajectories were predicted by lower order personality facets, overreactive parenting, and their interaction. At three time points separated by 2-year intervals, mothers and fathers reported on their children's aggression and rule breaking (N = 290, M age = 8.8 years at Time 1). At Time 1, parents reported on their children's personality traits and their own overreactivity. Growth mixture modeling identified three aggression trajectories (low decreasing, high decreasing, and high increasing) and two rule-breaking trajectories (low and high). Lower optimism and compliance and higher energy predicted trajectories for both aggression and rule breaking, whereas higher expressiveness and irritability and lower orderliness and perseverance were unique risk factors for increasing aggression into adolescence. Lower concentration was a unique risk factor for increasing rule breaking. Parental overreactivity predicted higher trajectories of aggression but not rule breaking. Only two Trait × Overreactivity interactions were found. Our results indicate that personality facets could differentiate children at risk for different developmental trajectories of aggression and rule breaking.

A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Na, Xi

2015-04-23

Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

Prediction of Driving Safety in Individuals with Homonymous Hemianopia and Quadrantanopia from Clinical Neuroimaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Vaphiades

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from −0.29 to 0.04. The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28. Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

Prediction of driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia and quadrantanopia from clinical neuroimaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaphiades, Michael S; Kline, Lanning B; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M

2014-01-01

Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

Islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose predicts insulin independence for first clinical islet allotransplants

Science.gov (United States)

Kitzmann, JP; O’Gorman, D; Kin, T; Gruessner, AC; Senior, P; Imes, S; Gruessner, RW; Shapiro, AMJ; Papas, KK

2014-01-01

Human islet allotransplant (ITx) for the treatment of type 1 diabetes is in phase III clinical registration trials in the US and standard of care in several other countries. Current islet product release criteria include viability based on cell membrane integrity stains, glucose stimulated insulin release (GSIR), and islet equivalent (IE) dose based on counts. However, only a fraction of patients transplanted with islets that meet or exceed these release criteria become insulin independent following one transplant. Measurements of islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) have been reported as highly predictive of transplant outcome in many models. In this paper we report on the assessment of clinical islet allograft preparations using islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose (or viable IE dose) and current product release assays in a series of 13 first transplant recipients. The predictive capability of each assay was examined and successful graft function was defined as 100% insulin independence within 45 days post-transplant. Results showed that OCR dose was most predictive of CTO. IE dose was also highly predictive, while GSIR and membrane integrity stains were not. In conclusion, OCR dose can predict CTO with high specificity and sensitivity and is a useful tool for evaluating islet preparations prior to clinical ITx. PMID:25131089

Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Papas, Klearchos K; Bellin, Melena D; Sutherland, David E R; Suszynski, Thomas M; Kitzmann, Jennifer P; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Gruessner, Angelika C; Mueller, Kathryn R; Beilman, Gregory J; Balamurugan, Appakalai N; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C; Wilhelm, Josh J; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C; Hering, Bernhard J

2015-01-01

Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klearchos K Papas

Full Text Available Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT insulin independence (II. IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity.Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI, OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA, islet equivalent (IE and OCR (viable IE normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose, and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35. Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis.Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001. These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose. FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49 and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58 did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72.Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

Creep-fatigue life prediction for different heats of Type 304 stainless steel by linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maiya, P.S.

1978-07-01

The creep-fatigue life results for five different heats of Type 304 stainless steel at 593 0 C (1100 0 F), generated under push-pull conditions in the axial strain-control mode, are presented. The life predictions for the various heats based on the linear-damage rule, strain-range partitioning method, and damage-rate approach are discussed. The appropriate material properties required for computation of fatigue life are also included

Magnetic resonance imaging of injuries to the ankle joint: can it predict clinical outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Zanetti, M; De Simoni, C; Wetz, H H; Zollinger, H; Hodler, J

1997-02-01

To predict clinical outcome after ankle sprains on the basis of magnetic resonance (MR) findings. Twenty-nine consecutive patients (mean age 32.9 years, range 13-60 years) were examined clinically and with MR imaging both after trauma and following standardized conservative therapy. Various MR abnormalities were related to a clinical outcome score. There was a tendency for a better clinical outcome in partial, rather than complete, tears of the anterior talofibular ligament and when there was no fluid within the peroneal tendon sheath at the initial MR examination (P = 0.092 for either abnormality). A number of other MR features did not significantly influence clinical outcome, including the presence of a calcaneofibular ligament lesion and a bone bruise of the talar dome. Clinical outcome after ankle sprain cannot consistently be predicted by MR imaging, although MR imaging may be more accurate when the anterior talofibular ligament is only partially torn and there are no signs of injury to the peroneal tendon sheath.

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig I. Coleman

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. Methods We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4–95.8 and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4–21.1. Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3–96.5 and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7–21.5 for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9–89.2 and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2–22.0 for any complication. Conclusion IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Craig I; Peacock, W Frank; Fermann, Gregory J; Crivera, Concetta; Weeda, Erin R; Hull, Michael; DuCharme, Mary; Becker, Laura; Schein, Jeff R

2016-10-22

Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication) and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death) were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4-95.8) and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4-21.1). Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3-96.5) and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7-21.5) for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9-89.2) and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2-22.0) for any complication. IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

Business rules for creating process flexibility : Mapping RIF rules and BDI rules

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gong, Y.; Overbeek, S.J.; Janssen, M.

2011-01-01

Business rules and software agents can be used for creating flexible business processes. The Rule Interchange Format (RIF) is a new W3C recommendation standard for exchanging rules among disparate systems. Yet, the impact that the introduction of RIF has on the design of flexible business processes

Validation of the Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society criteria to predict severe community-acquired pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Science.gov (United States)

Kontou, Paschalina; Kuti, Joseph L; Nicolau, David P

2009-10-01

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is usually defined as pneumonia that requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission; the primary pathogen responsible for ICU admission is Streptococcus pneumoniae. In this study, the 2007 Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society (IDSA/ATS) consensus criteria for ICU admission were compared with other severity scores in predicting ICU admission and mortality. We retrospectively studied 158 patients with pneumococcal CAP (1999-2003). Clinical and laboratory features at the emergency department were recorded and used to calculate the 2007 IDSA/ATS rule, the 2001 ATS rule, 2 modified 2007 IDSA/ATS rules, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), and the CURB (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure) score. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) were assessed for the various indices. We also determined the criteria that were independently predictive of ICU admission and of mortality in our population. The 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria performed as well as the 2001 ATS rule in predicting ICU admission both demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) and NPV (97%). For the prediction of mortality, the best tool proved to be the PSI score (sensitivity, 95%; NPV, 99%). The variables associated with ICU admission in this patient population included tachypnea, confusion, Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio of 250 or lower, and hypotension requiring fluid resuscitation. Mechanical ventilation and PSI class V were independently associated with mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of the new criteria in predicting severe CAP. The 2001 ATS criteria seem an attractive alternative because they are simple and as effective as the 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria.

Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

2016-01-01

Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

Truncation Depth Rule-of-Thumb for Convolutional Codes

Science.gov (United States)

Moision, Bruce

2009-01-01

In this innovation, it is shown that a commonly used rule of thumb (that the truncation depth of a convolutional code should be five times the memory length, m, of the code) is accurate only for rate 1/2 codes. In fact, the truncation depth should be 2.5 m/(1 - r), where r is the code rate. The accuracy of this new rule is demonstrated by tabulating the distance properties of a large set of known codes. This new rule was derived by bounding the losses due to truncation as a function of the code rate. With regard to particular codes, a good indicator of the required truncation depth is the path length at which all paths that diverge from a particular path have accumulated the minimum distance of the code. It is shown that the new rule of thumb provides an accurate prediction of this depth for codes of varying rates.

Rule-Based Event Processing and Reaction Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Paschke, Adrian; Kozlenkov, Alexander

Reaction rules and event processing technologies play a key role in making business and IT / Internet infrastructures more agile and active. While event processing is concerned with detecting events from large event clouds or streams in almost real-time, reaction rules are concerned with the invocation of actions in response to events and actionable situations. They state the conditions under which actions must be taken. In the last decades various reaction rule and event processing approaches have been developed, which for the most part have been advanced separately. In this paper we survey reaction rule approaches and rule-based event processing systems and languages.

General solution of superconvergent sum rules for scattering of I=1 reggeons on baryons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grigoryan, A.A.; Khachatryan, G.N.

1986-01-01

Superconvergent sum rules for reggeon-particle scattering are applied to scattering of reggeons α i (i=π, ρ, A 2 ) with isospin I=1 on baryons with strangeness S=-1. The saturation scheme of these sum rules is determined on the basis of experimental data. Two series of baryon resonances with arbitrary isospins I and spins J=I+1/2 and J=I-1/2 are predicted. A general solution for vertices of interaction of these resonances with α i is found. Predictions for coupling vertices B α i B'(B, B'=Λ, Σ, Σ * ) agree well with the experiment. It is shown that the condition of sum rules saturation by minimal number of resonances brings to saturation schemes resulting from experimental data. A general solution of sum rules for scattering of α i reggeons on Ξ and Ω hyperons is analyzed

Microsatellite Instability Predicts Clinical Outcome in Radiation-Treated Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilbao, Cristina; Lara, Pedro Carlos; Ramirez, Raquel; Henriquez-Hernandez, Luis Alberto; Rodriguez, German; Falcon, Orlando; Leon, Laureano; Perucho, Manuel

2010-01-01

Purpose: To elucidate whether microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts clinical outcome in radiation-treated endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC). Methods and Materials: A consecutive series of 93 patients with EEC treated with extrafascial hysterectomy and postoperative radiotherapy was studied. The median clinical follow-up of patients was 138 months, with a maximum of 232 months. Five quasimonomorphic mononucleotide markers (BAT-25, BAT-26, NR21, NR24, and NR27) were used for MSI classification. Results: Twenty-five patients (22%) were classified as MSI. Both in the whole series and in early stages (I and II), univariate analysis showed a significant association between MSI and poorer 10-year local disease-free survival, disease-free survival, and cancer-specific survival. In multivariate analysis, MSI was excluded from the final regression model in the whole series, but in early stages MSI provided additional significant predictive information independent of traditional prognostic and predictive factors (age, stage, grade, and vascular invasion) for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-10.49; p = 0.048) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.23-14.35; p = 0.022) and was marginally significant for local disease-free survival (HR 3.54, 95% CI 0.93-13.46; p = 0.064). Conclusions: These results suggest that MSI may predict radiotherapy response in early-stage EEC.

[Establishment of A Clinical Prediction Model of Prolonged Air Leak 
after Anatomic Lung Resection].

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xianning; Xu, Shibin; Ke, Li; Fan, Jun; Wang, Jun; Xie, Mingran; Jiang, Xianliang; Xu, Meiqing

2017-12-20

Prolonged air leak (PAL) after anatomic lung resection is a common and challenging complication in thoracic surgery. No available clinical prediction model of PAL has been established in China. The aim of this study was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of PAL by using preoperative factors exclusively. We retrospectively reviewed clinical data and PAL occurrence of patients after anatomic lung resection, in department of thoracic surgery, Anhui Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University, from January 2016 to October 2016. 359 patients were in group A, clinical data including age, body mass index (BMI), gender, smoking history, surgical methods, pulmonary function index, pleural adhesion, pathologic diagnosis, side and site of resected lung were analyzed. By using univariate and multivariate analysis, we found the independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection and subsequently established a clinical prediction model. Then, another 112 patients (group B), who underwent anatomic lung resection in different time by different team, were chosen to verify the accuracy of the prediction model. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed using the prediction model. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify six clinical characteristics [BMI, gender, smoking history, forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity ratio (FEV1%), pleural adhesion, site of resection] as independent predictors of PAL after anatomic lung resection. The area under the ROC curve for our model was 0.886 (95%CI: 0.835-0.937). The best predictive P value was 0.299 with sensitivity of 78.5% and specificity of 93.2%. Our prediction model could accurately identify occurrence risk of PAL in patients after anatomic lung resection, which might allow for more effective use of intraoperative prophylactic strategies.
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ECG dispersion mapping predicts clinical deterioration, measured by increase in the Simple Clinical Score.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kellett, J

2012-01-01

Objective: ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that reports abnormal ECG microalternations. We report the ability of ECG-DM to predict clinical deterioration of acutely ill medical patients, as measured by an increase in the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) the day after admission to hospital. Methods: 453 acutely ill medical patients (mean age 69.7 +\\/- 14.0 years) had the SCS recorded and ECGDM performed immediately after admission to hospital. Results: 46 patients had an SCS increase 20.8 +\\/- 7.6 hours after admission. Abnormal micro-alternations during left ventricular re-polarization had the highest association with SCS increase (p=0.0005). Logistic regression showed that only nursing home residence and abnormal micro-alternations during re-polarization of the left ventricle were independent predictors of SCS increase with an odds ratio of 2.84 and 3.01, respectively. Conclusion: ECG-DM changes during left ventricular re-polarization are independent predictors of clinical deterioration the day after hospital admission.

Methodologic Guide for Evaluating Clinical Performance and Effect of Artificial Intelligence Technology for Medical Diagnosis and Prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Seong Ho; Han, Kyunghwa

2018-03-01

The use of artificial intelligence in medicine is currently an issue of great interest, especially with regard to the diagnostic or predictive analysis of medical images. Adoption of an artificial intelligence tool in clinical practice requires careful confirmation of its clinical utility. Herein, the authors explain key methodology points involved in a clinical evaluation of artificial intelligence technology for use in medicine, especially high-dimensional or overparameterized diagnostic or predictive models in which artificial deep neural networks are used, mainly from the standpoints of clinical epidemiology and biostatistics. First, statistical methods for assessing the discrimination and calibration performances of a diagnostic or predictive model are summarized. Next, the effects of disease manifestation spectrum and disease prevalence on the performance results are explained, followed by a discussion of the difference between evaluating the performance with use of internal and external datasets, the importance of using an adequate external dataset obtained from a well-defined clinical cohort to avoid overestimating the clinical performance as a result of overfitting in high-dimensional or overparameterized classification model and spectrum bias, and the essentials for achieving a more robust clinical evaluation. Finally, the authors review the role of clinical trials and observational outcome studies for ultimate clinical verification of diagnostic or predictive artificial intelligence tools through patient outcomes, beyond performance metrics, and how to design such studies. © RSNA, 2018.

Prediction of Clinically Relevant Safety Signals of Nephrotoxicity through Plasma Metabolite Profiling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. B. Mattes

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Addressing safety concerns such as drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI early in the drug pharmaceutical development process ensures both patient safety and efficient clinical development. We describe a unique adjunct to standard safety assessment wherein the metabolite profile of treated animals is compared with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database in order to predict the potential for a wide variety of adverse events, including DIKI. To examine this approach, a study of five compounds (phenytoin, cyclosporin A, doxorubicin, captopril, and lisinopril was initiated by the Technology Evaluation Consortium under the auspices of the Drug Safety Executive Council (DSEC. The metabolite profiles for rats treated with these compounds matched established reference patterns in the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database indicative of each compound’s well-described clinical toxicities. For example, the DIKI associated with cyclosporine A and doxorubicin was correctly predicted by metabolite profiling, while no evidence for DIKI was found for phenytoin, consistent with its clinical picture. In some cases the clinical toxicity (hepatotoxicity, not generally seen in animal studies, was detected with MetaMap Tox. Thus metabolite profiling coupled with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database offers a unique and powerful approach for augmenting safety assessment and avoiding clinical adverse events such as DIKI.

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Clinical Relevance of Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers in Gliomas.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegal, Tali

2016-01-01

Sorting and grading of glial tumors by the WHO classification provide clinicians with guidance as to the predicted course of the disease and choice of treatment. Nonetheless, histologically identical tumors may have very different outcome and response to treatment. Molecular markers that carry both diagnostic and prognostic information add useful tools to traditional classification by redefining tumor subtypes within each WHO category. Therefore, molecular markers have become an integral part of tumor assessment in modern neuro-oncology and biomarker status now guides clinical decisions in some subtypes of gliomas. The routine assessment of IDH status improves histological diagnostic accuracy by differentiating diffuse glioma from reactive gliosis. It carries a favorable prognostic implication for all glial tumors and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic oligodendrogliomas with codeletion of 1p/19q chromosomes. Glial tumors that contain chromosomal codeletion of 1p/19q are defined as tumors of oligodendroglial lineage and have favorable prognosis. MGMT promoter methylation is a favorable prognostic marker in astrocytic high-grade gliomas and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic gliomas with wild-type IDH1/2 and in glioblastoma of the elderly. The clinical implication of other molecular markers of gliomas like mutations of EGFR and ATRX genes and BRAF fusion or point mutation is highlighted. The potential of molecular biomarker-based classification to guide future therapeutic approach is discussed and accentuated.

Embryo quality predictive models based on cumulus cells gene expression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devjak R

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Since the introduction of in vitro fertilization (IVF in clinical practice of infertility treatment, the indicators for high quality embryos were investigated. Cumulus cells (CC have a specific gene expression profile according to the developmental potential of the oocyte they are surrounding, and therefore, specific gene expression could be used as a biomarker. The aim of our study was to combine more than one biomarker to observe improvement in prediction value of embryo development. In this study, 58 CC samples from 17 IVF patients were analyzed. This study was approved by the Republic of Slovenia National Medical Ethics Committee. Gene expression analysis [quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR] for five genes, analyzed according to embryo quality level, was performed. Two prediction models were tested for embryo quality prediction: a binary logistic and a decision tree model. As the main outcome, gene expression levels for five genes were taken and the area under the curve (AUC for two prediction models were calculated. Among tested genes, AMHR2 and LIF showed significant expression difference between high quality and low quality embryos. These two genes were used for the construction of two prediction models: the binary logistic model yielded an AUC of 0.72 ± 0.08 and the decision tree model yielded an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.03. Two different prediction models yielded similar predictive power to differentiate high and low quality embryos. In terms of eventual clinical decision making, the decision tree model resulted in easy-to-interpret rules that are highly applicable in clinical practice.

Clinical and functional criteria for predicting asthma in infants

OpenAIRE

Yu. L. Mizemitskiy; V. A. Pavlenko; I. M. Melnikova

2015-01-01

Objective: to determine clinical and functional criteria for predicting asthma in children who have sustained acute obstructive bronchitis in infancy. Subjects and methods. A total of 125 infants aged 2 to 36 months who had experienced 1 -2 episodes of acute obstructive bronchitis and treated at hospital were examined when bronchial obstruction syndrome was being relieved. In addition to physical examination, functional studies (computerized bronchophonography and heart rate variability asses...

Ontogeny of collective behavior reveals a simple attraction rule.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinz, Robert C; de Polavieja, Gonzalo G

2017-02-28

The striking patterns of collective animal behavior, including ant trails, bird flocks, and fish schools, can result from local interactions among animals without centralized control. Several of these rules of interaction have been proposed, but it has proven difficult to discriminate which ones are implemented in nature. As a method to better discriminate among interaction rules, we propose to follow the slow birth of a rule of interaction during animal development. Specifically, we followed the development of zebrafish, Danio rerio , and found that larvae turn toward each other from 7 days postfertilization and increase the intensity of interactions until 3 weeks. This developmental dataset allows testing the parameter-free predictions of a simple rule in which animals attract each other part of the time, with attraction defined as turning toward another animal chosen at random. This rule makes each individual likely move to a high density of conspecifics, and moving groups naturally emerge. Development of attraction strength corresponds to an increase in the time spent in attraction behavior. Adults were found to follow the same attraction rule, suggesting a potential significance for adults of other species.

[Predictive methods versus clinical titration for the initiation of lithium therapy. A systematic review].

Science.gov (United States)

Geeraerts, I; Sienaert, P

2013-01-01

When lithium is administered, the clinician needs to know when the lithium in the patient’s blood has reached a therapeutic level. At the initiation of treatment the level is usually achieved gradually through the application of the titration method. In order to increase the efficacy of this procedure several methods for dosing lithium and for predicting lithium levels have been developed. To conduct a systematic review of the publications relating to the various methods for dosing lithium or predicting lithium levels at the initiation of therapy. We searched Medline systematically for articles published in English, French or Dutch between 1966 and April 2012 which described or studied a method for dosing lithium or for predicting the lithium level reached following a specific dosage. We screened the reference lists of relevant articles in order to locate additional papers. We found 38 lithium prediction methods, in addition to the clinical titration method. These methods can be divided into two categories: the ‘a priori’ methods and the ‘test-dose’ methods, the latter requiring the administration of a test dose of lithium. The lithium prediction methods generally achieve a therapeutic blood level faster than the clinical titration method, but none of the methods achieves convincing results. On the basis of our review, we propose that the titration method should be used as the standard method in clinical practice.

Safety leadership at construction sites: the importance of rule-oriented and participative leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Grill, Martin; Pousette, Anders; Nielsen, Kent; Grytnes, Regine; Törner, Marianne

2017-07-01

Objectives The construction industry accounted for >20% of all fatal occupational accidents in Europe in 2014. Leadership is an essential antecedent to occupational safety. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented, participative, and laissez-faire leadership on safety climate, safety behavior, and accidents in the Swedish and Danish construction industry. Sweden and Denmark are similar countries but have a large difference in occupational accidents rates. Methods A questionnaire study was conducted among a random sample of construction workers in both countries: 811 construction workers from 85 sites responded, resulting in site and individual response rates of 73% and 64%, respectively. Results The results indicated that transformational, active transactional, rule-oriented and participative leadership predict positive safety outcomes, and laissez-faire leadership predict negative safety outcomes. For example, rule-oriented leadership predicts a superior safety climate (β=0.40, Pleadership on workers' safety behavior was moderated by the level of participative leadership (β=0.10, Pleadership behaviors on safety outcomes were largely similar in Sweden and Denmark. Rule-oriented and participative leadership were more common in the Swedish than Danish construction industry, which may partly explain the difference in occupational accident rates. Conclusions Applying less laissez-faire leadership and more transformational, active transactional, participative and rule-oriented leadership appears to be an effective way for construction site managers to improve occupational safety in the industry.

18 CFR 385.104 - Rule of construction (Rule 104).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... Definitions § 385.104 Rule of construction (Rule 104). To the extent that the text of a rule is inconsistent with its caption, the text of the rule controls. [Order 376, 49 FR 21705, May 23, 1984] ...

Machine Learning Methods to Predict Diabetes Complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagliati, Arianna; Marini, Simone; Sacchi, Lucia; Cogni, Giulia; Teliti, Marsida; Tibollo, Valentina; De Cata, Pasquale; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2018-03-01

One of the areas where Artificial Intelligence is having more impact is machine learning, which develops algorithms able to learn patterns and decision rules from data. Machine learning algorithms have been embedded into data mining pipelines, which can combine them with classical statistical strategies, to extract knowledge from data. Within the EU-funded MOSAIC project, a data mining pipeline has been used to derive a set of predictive models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) complications based on electronic health record data of nearly one thousand patients. Such pipeline comprises clinical center profiling, predictive model targeting, predictive model construction and model validation. After having dealt with missing data by means of random forest (RF) and having applied suitable strategies to handle class imbalance, we have used Logistic Regression with stepwise feature selection to predict the onset of retinopathy, neuropathy, or nephropathy, at different time scenarios, at 3, 5, and 7 years from the first visit at the Hospital Center for Diabetes (not from the diagnosis). Considered variables are gender, age, time from diagnosis, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hypertension, and smoking habit. Final models, tailored in accordance with the complications, provided an accuracy up to 0.838. Different variables were selected for each complication and time scenario, leading to specialized models easy to translate to the clinical practice.

Implementation of adapted PECARN decision rule for children with minor head injury in the pediatric emergency department.

Science.gov (United States)

Bressan, Silvia; Romanato, Sabrina; Mion, Teresa; Zanconato, Stefania; Da Dalt, Liviana

2012-07-01

Of the currently published clinical decision rules for the management of minor head injury (MHI) in children, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule, derived and validated in a large multicenter prospective study cohort, with high methodologic standards, appears to be the best clinical decision rule to accurately identify children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in the pediatric emergency department (PED). This study describes the implementation of an adapted version of the PECARN rule in a tertiary care academic PED in Italy and evaluates implementation success, in terms of medical staff adherence and satisfaction, as well as its effects on clinical practice. The adapted PECARN decision rule algorithms for children (one for those younger than 2 years and one for those older than 2 years) were actively implemented in the PED of Padova, Italy, for a 6-month testing period. Adherence and satisfaction of medical staff to the new rule were calculated. Data from 356 visits for MHI during PECARN rule implementation and those of 288 patients attending the PED for MHI in the previous 6 months were compared for changes in computed tomography (CT) scan rate, ciTBI rate (defined as death, neurosurgery, intubation for longer than 24 hours, or hospital admission at least for two nights associated with TBI) and return visits for symptoms or signs potentially related to MHI. The safety and efficacy of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice were also calculated. Adherence to the adapted PECARN rule was 93.5%. The percentage of medical staff satisfied with the new rule, in terms of usefulness and ease of use for rapid decision-making, was significantly higher (96% vs. 51%, puse of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice was 100% (95% CI=36.8 to 100; three of three patients with ciTBI who received CT scan at first evaluation), while efficacy was 92.3% (95% CI=89 to 95; 326 of 353 patients without ci

Multi-arm group sequential designs with a simultaneous stopping rule.

Science.gov (United States)

Urach, S; Posch, M

2016-12-30

Multi-arm group sequential clinical trials are efficient designs to compare multiple treatments to a control. They allow one to test for treatment effects already in interim analyses and can have a lower average sample number than fixed sample designs. Their operating characteristics depend on the stopping rule: We consider simultaneous stopping, where the whole trial is stopped as soon as for any of the arms the null hypothesis of no treatment effect can be rejected, and separate stopping, where only recruitment to arms for which a significant treatment effect could be demonstrated is stopped, but the other arms are continued. For both stopping rules, the family-wise error rate can be controlled by the closed testing procedure applied to group sequential tests of intersection and elementary hypotheses. The group sequential boundaries for the separate stopping rule also control the family-wise error rate if the simultaneous stopping rule is applied. However, we show that for the simultaneous stopping rule, one can apply improved, less conservative stopping boundaries for local tests of elementary hypotheses. We derive corresponding improved Pocock and O'Brien type boundaries as well as optimized boundaries to maximize the power or average sample number and investigate the operating characteristics and small sample properties of the resulting designs. To control the power to reject at least one null hypothesis, the simultaneous stopping rule requires a lower average sample number than the separate stopping rule. This comes at the cost of a lower power to reject all null hypotheses. Some of this loss in power can be regained by applying the improved stopping boundaries for the simultaneous stopping rule. The procedures are illustrated with clinical trials in systemic sclerosis and narcolepsy. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of renal mass aggressiveness using clinical and radiographic features: a global, multicentre prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Golan, Shay; Eggener, Scott; Subotic, Svetozar; Barret, Eric; Cormio, Luigi; Naito, Seiji; Tefekli, Ahmet; Pilar Laguna Pes, M.

2016-01-01

To examine the ability of preoperative clinical characteristics to predict histological features of renal masses (RMs). Data from consecutive patients with clinical stage I RMs treated surgically between 2010 and 2011 in the Clinical Research Office of Endourology Society (CROES) Renal Mass Registry

Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

Science.gov (United States)

Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

2009-09-01

Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P advanced HF.

FeynRules - Feynman rules made easy

OpenAIRE

Christensen, Neil D.; Duhr, Claude

2008-01-01

In this paper we present FeynRules, a new Mathematica package that facilitates the implementation of new particle physics models. After the user implements the basic model information (e.g. particle content, parameters and Lagrangian), FeynRules derives the Feynman rules and stores them in a generic form suitable for translation to any Feynman diagram calculation program. The model can then be translated to the format specific to a particular Feynman diagram calculator via F...

An IL28B genotype-based clinical prediction model for treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas R O'Brien

Full Text Available Genetic variation in IL28B and other factors are associated with sustained virological response (SVR after pegylated-interferon/ribavirin treatment for chronic hepatitis C (CHC. Using data from the HALT-C Trial, we developed a model to predict a patient's probability of SVR based on IL28B genotype and clinical variables.HALT-C enrolled patients with advanced CHC who had failed previous interferon-based treatment. Subjects were re-treated with pegylated-interferon/ribavirin during trial lead-in. We used step-wise logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR and create the predictive model. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to predict a priori probabilities of SVR and determine area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC.Among 646 HCV genotype 1-infected European American patients, 14.2% achieved SVR. IL28B rs12979860-CC genotype was the strongest predictor of SVR (aOR, 7.56; p10% (43.3% of subjects had an SVR rate of 27.9% and accounted for 84.8% of subjects actually achieving SVR. To verify that consideration of both IL28B genotype and clinical variables is required for treatment decisions, we calculated AUC values from published data for the IDEAL Study.A clinical prediction model based on IL28B genotype and clinical variables can yield useful individualized predictions of the probability of treatment success that could increase SVR rates and decrease the frequency of futile treatment among patients with CHC.

The predictive validity of the BioMedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Emery, Joanne L; Bell, John F

2009-06-01

Some medical courses in the UK have many more applicants than places and almost all applicants have the highest possible previous and predicted examination grades. The BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) was designed to assist in the student selection process specifically for a number of 'traditional' medical courses with clear pre-clinical and clinical phases and a strong focus on science teaching in the early years. It is intended to supplement the information provided by examination results, interviews and personal statements. This paper reports on the predictive validity of the BMAT and its predecessor, the Medical and Veterinary Admissions Test. Results from the earliest 4 years of the test (2000-2003) were matched to the pre-clinical examination results of those accepted onto the medical course at the University of Cambridge. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were performed for each cohort. Section 2 of the test ('Scientific Knowledge') correlated more strongly with examination marks than did Section 1 ('Aptitude and Skills'). It also had a stronger relationship with the probability of achieving the highest examination class. The BMAT and its predecessor demonstrate predictive validity for the pre-clinical years of the medical course at the University of Cambridge. The test identifies important differences in skills and knowledge between candidates, not shown by their previous attainment, which predict their examination performance. It is thus a valid source of additional admissions information for medical courses with a strong scientific emphasis when previous attainment is very high.

Readmission prediction via deep contextual embedding of clinical concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Cao; Ma, Tengfei; Dieng, Adji B; Blei, David M; Wang, Fei

2018-01-01

Hospital readmission costs a lot of money every year. Many hospital readmissions are avoidable, and excessive hospital readmissions could also be harmful to the patients. Accurate prediction of hospital readmission can effectively help reduce the readmission risk. However, the complex relationship between readmission and potential risk factors makes readmission prediction a difficult task. The main goal of this paper is to explore deep learning models to distill such complex relationships and make accurate predictions. We propose CONTENT, a deep model that predicts hospital readmissions via learning interpretable patient representations by capturing both local and global contexts from patient Electronic Health Records (EHR) through a hybrid Topic Recurrent Neural Network (TopicRNN) model. The experiment was conducted using the EHR of a real world Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) cohort of 5,393 patients. The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in readmission prediction (e.g. 0.6103 ± 0.0130 vs. second best 0.5998 ± 0.0124 in terms of ROC-AUC). The derived patient representations were further utilized for patient phenotyping. The learned phenotypes provide more precise understanding of readmission risks. Embedding both local and global context in patient representation not only improves prediction performance, but also brings interpretable insights of understanding readmission risks for heterogeneous chronic clinical conditions. This is the first of its kind model that integrates the power of both conventional deep neural network and the probabilistic generative models for highly interpretable deep patient representation learning. Experimental results and case studies demonstrate the improved performance and interpretability of the model.

Prediction of Clinical Deterioration in Hospitalized Adult Patients with Hematologic Malignancies Using a Neural Network Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott B Hu

Full Text Available Clinical deterioration (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest occurs during approximately 5-10% of hospital admissions. Existing prediction models have a high false positive rate, leading to multiple false alarms and alarm fatigue. We used routine vital signs and laboratory values obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR along with a machine learning algorithm called a neural network to develop a prediction model that would increase the predictive accuracy and decrease false alarm rates.Retrospective cohort study.The hematologic malignancy unit in an academic medical center in the United States.Adult patients admitted to the hematologic malignancy unit from 2009 to 2010.None.Vital signs and laboratory values were obtained from the electronic medical record system and then used as predictors (features. A neural network was used to build a model to predict clinical deterioration events (ICU transfer and cardiac arrest. The performance of the neural network model was compared to the VitalPac Early Warning Score (ViEWS. Five hundred sixty five consecutive total admissions were available with 43 admissions resulting in clinical deterioration. Using simulation, the neural network outperformed the ViEWS model with a positive predictive value of 82% compared to 24%, respectively.We developed and tested a neural network-based prediction model for clinical deterioration in patients hospitalized in the hematologic malignancy unit. Our neural network model outperformed an existing model, substantially increasing the positive predictive value, allowing the clinician to be confident in the alarm raised. This system can be readily implemented in a real-time fashion in existing EMR systems.

Applications of rule-induction in the derivation of quantitative structure-activity relationships

Science.gov (United States)

A-Razzak, Mohammed; Glen, Robert C.

1992-08-01

Recently, methods have been developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), specifically in the expert systems area using rule-induction, designed to extract rules from data. We have applied these methods to the analysis of molecular series with the objective of generating rules which are predictive and reliable. The input to rule-induction consists of a number of examples with known outcomes (a training set) and the output is a tree-structured series of rules. Unlike most other analysis methods, the results of the analysis are in the form of simple statements which can be easily interpreted. These are readily applied to new data giving both a classification and a probability of correctness. Rule-induction has been applied to in-house generated and published QSAR datasets and the methodology, application and results of these analyses are discussed. The results imply that in some cases it would be advantageous to use rule-induction as a complementary technique in addition to conventional statistical and pattern-recognition methods.

Zweig rule violation decays of the new particles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaichian, M.; Hayashi, M.

1976-01-01

The specific decay modes of the new psi particles and their cascade products are considered according to an approximate scheme of sequential pole dominance proposed by Freund and Nambu, which is dictated by the dual model dynamics. Predictions and comparison with available data are presented. While asymptotically free gauge theory can trace the origin of violation of Zweig rule and the smallness of psi width, it can only give an estimate of the over-all violation of the rule and is not well suited for each decay channel separately. The sequential pole model fulfils this task. (Auth.)

Does a Simple Cope's Rule Mechanism Overlook Predators?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penteriani, V.; Kenward, R.

2007-01-01

The Copes rule predicts a tendency for species to evolve towards an increase in size. Recently, it has been suggested that such a tendency is due to the fact that large body sizes provide a general increase in individual fitness. Here we highlight evidence that predator species do not always fit the large-size = high-fitness mechanism for Copes rule. Given the specific requirements of predators and the complexity of prey-predator relationships, any analysis that does not take into account all animal groups may overlook a significant portion of evolutive trends. Generalisations may not be possible regardless of taxa.

Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonéri eLe Cozannet

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In the current practice of sandy shoreline change assessments, the local sedimentary budget is evaluated using the sediment balance equation, that is, by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore processes. The contribution of future sea-level-rise induced by climate change is usually obtained using the Bruun rule, which assumes that the shoreline retreat is equal to the change of sea-level divided by the slope of the upper shoreface. However, it remains unsure that this approach is appropriate to account for the impacts of future sea-level rise. This is due to the lack of relevant observations to validate the Bruun rule under the expected sea-level rise rates. To address this issue, this article estimates the coastal settings and period of time under which the use of the Bruun rule could be (invalidated, in the case of wave-exposed gently-sloping sandy beaches. Using the sedimentary budgets of Stive (2004 and probabilistic sea-level rise scenarios based on IPCC, we provide shoreline change projections that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting idealized coasts (impacts of sea-level rise, storms and other cross-shore and longshore processes. We evaluate the relative importance of each source of uncertainties in the sediment balance equation using a global sensitivity analysis. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defences, the model predicts a perceivable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. In contrast, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. Finally, the contribution of sea-level rise and climate change scenarios to sandy shoreline change projections uncertainties increases with time during the 21st century. Our results have three primary implications for coastal settings similar to those provided described in Stive (2004 : first, the validation of the Bruun rule will not necessarily be

Highly accurate prediction of food challenge outcome using routinely available clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

DunnGalvin, Audrey; Daly, Deirdre; Cullinane, Claire; Stenke, Emily; Keeton, Diane; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, Mich; Roberts, Graham C; Lucas, Jane; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B

2011-03-01

Serum specific IgE or skin prick tests are less useful at levels below accepted decision points. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict food challenge outcome by using routinely collected data in a diverse sample of children considered suitable for food challenge. The proto-algorithm was generated by using a limited data set from 1 service (phase 1). We retrospectively applied, evaluated, and modified the initial model by using an extended data set in another center (phase 2). Finally, we prospectively validated the model in a blind study in a further group of children undergoing food challenge for peanut, milk, or egg in the second center (phase 3). Allergen-specific models were developed for peanut, egg, and milk. Phase 1 (N = 429) identified 5 clinical factors associated with diagnosis of food allergy by food challenge. In phase 2 (N = 289), we examined the predictive ability of 6 clinical factors: skin prick test, serum specific IgE, total IgE minus serum specific IgE, symptoms, sex, and age. In phase 3 (N = 70), 97% of cases were accurately predicted as positive and 94% as negative. Our model showed an advantage in clinical prediction compared with serum specific IgE only, skin prick test only, and serum specific IgE and skin prick test (92% accuracy vs 57%, and 81%, respectively). Our findings have implications for the improved delivery of food allergy-related health care, enhanced food allergy-related quality of life, and economized use of health service resources by decreasing the number of food challenges performed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A solution to the vertical barΔI/sup →/vertical bar = 1/2 rule and other dynamical selection rules in particle physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oneda, S.; Terasaki, K.

1984-01-01

Algebraic approach is developed in the framework of QCD and Electroweak theories. It is stressed that many seemingly different dynamical selection rules can share the same origin. In particular, derivation of vertical bar Δ I → vertical bar = 1/2 rule and explicit identification of its small violation are made for the Κ → 2 π decays, using new much milder soft-pion extrapolation. As a byproduct, the Β → ωπ decays are predicted to be predominantly λ = +-1 transitions in consistency with experiment

Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

A Belief Rule-Based (BRB) Decision Support System for Assessing Clinical Asthma Suspicion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Hossain, Emran; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

2014-01-01

conditions of uncertainty. The Belief Rule-Based Inference Methodology Using the Evidential Reasoning (RIMER) approach was adopted to develop this expert system; which is named the Belief Rule-Based Expert System (BRBES). The system can handle various types of uncertainty in knowledge representation...... and inference procedures. The knowledge base of this system was constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion. Practical case studies were used to validate the system. The system-generated results are more effective and reliable in terms of accuracy than the results generated by a manual system....

Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

Science.gov (United States)

Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-06-01

There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

Clinical implementation of dose-volume histogram predictions for organs-at-risk in IMRT planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, K L; Appenzoller, L M; Tan, J; Michalski, J M; Thorstad, W L; Mutic, S

2014-01-01

True quality control (QC) of the planning process requires quantitative assessments of treatment plan quality itself, and QC in IMRT has been stymied by intra-patient anatomical variability and inherently complex three-dimensional dose distributions. In this work we describe the development of an automated system to reduce clinical IMRT planning variability and improve plan quality using mathematical models that predict achievable OAR DVHs based on individual patient anatomy. These models rely on the correlation of expected dose to the minimum distance from a voxel to the PTV surface, whereby a three-parameter probability distribution function (PDF) was used to model iso-distance OAR subvolume dose distributions. DVH models were obtained by fitting the evolution of the PDF with distance. Initial validation on clinical cohorts of 40 prostate and 24 head-and-neck plans demonstrated highly accurate model-based predictions for achievable DVHs in rectum, bladder, and parotid glands. By quantifying the integrated difference between candidate DVHs and predicted DVHs, the models correctly identified plans with under-spared OARs, validated by replanning all cases and correlating any realized improvements against the predicted gains. Clinical implementation of these predictive models was demonstrated in the PINNACLE treatment planning system by use of existing margin expansion utilities and the scripting functionality inherent to the system. To maintain independence from specific planning software, a system was developed in MATLAB to directly process DICOM-RT data. Both model training and patient-specific analyses were demonstrated with significant computational accelerations from parallelization.

Analysis of General Power Counting Rules in Effective Field Theory

CERN Document Server

Gavela, B M; Manohar, A V; Merlo, L

2016-01-01

We derive the general counting rules for a quantum effective field theory (EFT) in $\\mathsf{d}$ dimensions. The rules are valid for strongly and weakly coupled theories, and predict that all kinetic energy terms are canonically normalized. They determine the energy dependence of scattering cross sections in the range of validity of the EFT expansion. The size of cross sections is controlled by the $\\Lambda$ power counting of EFT, not by chiral counting, even for chiral perturbation theory ($\\chi$PT). The relation between $\\Lambda$ and $f$ is generalized to $\\mathsf{d}$ dimensions. We show that the naive dimensional analysis $4\\pi$ counting is related to $\\hbar$ counting. The EFT counting rules are applied to $\\chi$PT, to Standard Model EFT and to the non-trivial case of Higgs EFT, which combines the $\\Lambda$ and chiral counting rules within a single theory.

TRADING RULES ON A SMALL STOCK MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefán B. Gunnlaugsson

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this article, the results of an extensive study of the weak form efficiency of the Iceland stock market are presented. This study almost covers the market’s entire history, with the research starting at the beginning of 1993 and ending in July 2017. Four trading rules based on 70-day moving averages were constructed and compared with the passive investment strategy of buying the market index. All of these trading rules provided significantly better returns than the passive strategy, even when considering trading costs. This result indicates that the Icelandic stock market did not show weak form efficiency, and past returns predicted future returns during the period examined.

An Experimental Research on the pCI Rule and Causal Judgment (in Chinese)

OpenAIRE

Shao, Z. F.; Wang, J.

2005-01-01

This research examined the precision of the pCI rule through three experiments. The results show that first , the tendency of the subjects’ casual judgments was basically similar to the pCI rule. But (a + d) / n predicted human’s casual judgments were even better; second, the increase of subjects’ casual judgments was milder than the pCI rule, and the subjects needed time to construct their own way of judging relationship; finally, different people had different ways of causal judgments, and ...

Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

2010-12-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

A modification of the Schomaker—Stevenson rule for prediction of single bond distances

Science.gov (United States)

Blom, Richard; Haaland, Arne

1985-04-01

A modification of the Schomaker—Stevenson rule: ?c = 8.5 pm, n = 1.4, significantly reduces the discrepancy between experimental calculated bond lengths for every polar bonds between main group elements.

New Safety rules

CERN Multimedia

Safety Commission

2008-01-01

The revision of CERN Safety rules is in progress and the following new Safety rules have been issued on 15-04-2008: Safety Procedure SP-R1 Establishing, Updating and Publishing CERN Safety rules: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SP-R1.htm; Safety Regulation SR-S Smoking at CERN: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SR-S.htm; Safety Regulation SR-M Mechanical Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SR-M.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M1 Standard Lifting Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M1.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M2 Standard Pressure Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M2.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M3 Special Mechanical Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M3.htm. These documents apply to all persons under the Director General’s authority. All Safety rules are available at the web page: http://www.cern.ch/safety-rules The Safety Commission

A Cross-Wavelet Transform Aided Rule Based Approach for Early Prediction of Lean Blow-out in Swirl-Stabilized Dump Combustor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debangshu Dey

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Lean or ultralean combustion is one of the popular strategies to achieve very low emission levels. However, it is extremely susceptible to lean blow-out (LBO. The present work explores a Cross-wavelet transform (XWT aided rule based scheme for early prediction of lean blowout. XWT can be considered as an advancement of wavelet analysis which gives correlation between two waveforms in time-frequency space. In the present scheme a swirl-stabilized dump combustor is used as a laboratory-scale model of a generic gas turbine combustor with LPG as fuel. Various time series data of CH chemiluminescence signal are recorded for different flame conditions by varying equivalence ratio, flow rate and level of air-fuel premixing. Some features are extracted from the cross-wavelet spectrum of the recorded waveforms and a reference wave. The extracted features are observed to classify the flame condition into three major classes: near LBO, moderate and healthy. Moreover, a Rough Set based technique is also applied on the extracted features to generate a rule base so that it can be fed to a real time controller or expert system to take necessary control action to prevent LBO. Results show that the proposed methodology performs with an acceptable degree of accuracy.

Children's Understanding of Verbal and Facial Display Rules

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Gnepp, Jackie; Hess, Debra L. R.

1986-01-01

First-, third-, fifth-, and tenth-grade children listened to eight stories designed to elicit prosocial or self-protective display rules. Children predicted protagonists' verbal and facial expressions to emotion-laden situations. Findings indicated knowledge of control of emotional displays increases between first and fifth grades, but then levels…

Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

2001-01-01

Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

Reliability of the CARE rule and the HEART score to rule out an acute coronary syndrome in non-traumatic chest pain patients.

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Moumneh, Thomas; Richard-Jourjon, Vanessa; Friou, Emilie; Prunier, Fabrice; Soulie-Chavignon, Caroline; Choukroun, Jacques; Mazet-Guilaumé, Betty; Riou, Jérémie; Penaloza, Andréa; Roy, Pierre-Marie

2018-03-02

In patients consulting in the Emergency Department for chest pain, a HEART score ≤ 3 has been shown to rule out an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with a low risk of major adverse cardiac event (MACE) occurrence. A negative CARE rule (≤ 1) that stands for the first four elements of the HEART score may have similar rule-out reliability without troponin assay requirement. We aim to prospectively assess the performance of the CARE rule and of the HEART score to predict MACE in a chest pain population. Prospective two-center non-interventional study. Patients admitted to the ED for non-traumatic chest pain were included, and followed-up at 6 weeks. The main study endpoint was the 6-week rate of MACE (myocardial infarction, coronary angioplasty, coronary bypass, and sudden unexplained death). 641 patients were included, of whom 9.5% presented a MACE at 6 weeks. The CARE rule was negative for 31.2% of patients, and none presented a MACE during follow-up [0, 95% confidence interval: (0.0-1.9)]. The HEART score was ≤ 3 for 63.0% of patients, and none presented a MACE during follow-up [0% (0.0-0.9)]. With an incidence below 2% in the negative group, the CARE rule seemed able to safely rule out a MACE without any biological test for one-third of patients with chest pain and the HEART score for another third with a single troponin assay.

New QCD sum rules for nucleon axial-vector coupling constants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, F.X.; Leinweber, D.B.; Jin, X.

1997-01-01

Two new sets of QCD sum rules for the nucleon axial-vector coupling constants are derived using the external-field technique and generalized interpolating fields. An in-depth study of the predicative ability of these sum rules is carried out using a Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis. The results show that the standard implementation of the QCD sum rule method has only marginal predicative power for the nucleon axial-vector coupling constants, as the relative errors are large. The errors range from approximately 50% to 100% compared to the nucleon mass obtained from the same method, which has only a 10%- 25% error. The origin of the large errors is examined. Previous analyses of these coupling constants are based on sum rules that have poor operator product expansion convergence and large continuum contributions. Preferred sum rules are identified and their predictions are obtained. We also investigate the new sum rules with an alternative treatment of the problematic transitions which are not exponentially suppressed in the standard treatment. The alternative treatment provides exponential suppression of their contributions relative to the ground state. Implications for other nucleon current matrix elements are also discussed. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

On the Rule of Mixtures for Predicting Stress-Softening and Residual Strain Effects in Biological Tissues and Biocompatible Materials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Elías-Zúñiga

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this work, we use the rule of mixtures to develop an equivalent material model in which the total strain energy density is split into the isotropic part related to the matrix component and the anisotropic energy contribution related to the fiber effects. For the isotropic energy part, we select the amended non-Gaussian strain energy density model, while the energy fiber effects are added by considering the equivalent anisotropic volumetric fraction contribution, as well as the isotropized representation form of the eight-chain energy model that accounts for the material anisotropic effects. Furthermore, our proposed material model uses a phenomenological non-monotonous softening function that predicts stress softening effects and has an energy term, derived from the pseudo-elasticity theory, that accounts for residual strain deformations. The model’s theoretical predictions are compared with experimental data collected from human vaginal tissues, mice skin, poly(glycolide-co-caprolactone (PGC25 3-0 and polypropylene suture materials and tracheal and brain human tissues. In all cases examined here, our equivalent material model closely follows stress-softening and residual strain effects exhibited by experimental data.

On the Rule of Mixtures for Predicting Stress-Softening and Residual Strain Effects in Biological Tissues and Biocompatible Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Elías-Zúñiga, Alex; Baylón, Karen; Ferrer, Inés; Serenó, Lídia; Garcia-Romeu, Maria Luisa; Bagudanch, Isabel; Grabalosa, Jordi; Pérez-Recio, Tania; Martínez-Romero, Oscar; Ortega-Lara, Wendy; Elizalde, Luis Ernesto

2014-01-01

In this work, we use the rule of mixtures to develop an equivalent material model in which the total strain energy density is split into the isotropic part related to the matrix component and the anisotropic energy contribution related to the fiber effects. For the isotropic energy part, we select the amended non-Gaussian strain energy density model, while the energy fiber effects are added by considering the equivalent anisotropic volumetric fraction contribution, as well as the isotropized representation form of the eight-chain energy model that accounts for the material anisotropic effects. Furthermore, our proposed material model uses a phenomenological non-monotonous softening function that predicts stress softening effects and has an energy term, derived from the pseudo-elasticity theory, that accounts for residual strain deformations. The model’s theoretical predictions are compared with experimental data collected from human vaginal tissues, mice skin, poly(glycolide-co-caprolactone) (PGC25 3-0) and polypropylene suture materials and tracheal and brain human tissues. In all cases examined here, our equivalent material model closely follows stress-softening and residual strain effects exhibited by experimental data. PMID:28788466

Utilizing Chinese Admission Records for MACE Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danqing Hu

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Clinical major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE prediction of acute coronary syndrome (ACS is important for a number of applications including physician decision support, quality of care assessment, and efficient healthcare service delivery on ACS patients. Admission records, as typical media to contain clinical information of patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations, provide significant potential to be explored for MACE prediction in a proactive manner. Methods: We propose a hybrid approach for MACE prediction by utilizing a large volume of admission records. Firstly, both a rule-based medical language processing method and a machine learning method (i.e., Conditional Random Fields (CRFs are developed to extract essential patient features from unstructured admission records. After that, state-of-the-art supervised machine learning algorithms are applied to construct MACE prediction models from data. Results: We comparatively evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 2930 ACS patient samples collected from a Chinese hospital. Our best model achieved 72% AUC in MACE prediction. In comparison of the performance between our models and two well-known ACS risk score tools, i.e., GRACE and TIMI, our learned models obtain better performances with a significant margin. Conclusions: Experimental results reveal that our approach can obtain competitive performance in MACE prediction. The comparison of classifiers indicates the proposed approach has a competitive generality with datasets extracted by different feature extraction methods. Furthermore, our MACE prediction model obtained a significant improvement by comparison with both GRACE and TIMI. It indicates that using admission records can effectively provide MACE prediction service for ACS patients at the early stage of their hospitalizations.

Have the Findings from Clinical Risk Prediction and Trials Any Key Messages for Safety Pharmacology?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jem D. Lane

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Anti-arrhythmic drugs are a mainstay in the management of symptoms related to arrhythmias, and are adjuncts in prevention and treatment of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. However, they also have the potential for pro-arrhythmia and thus the prediction of arrhythmia predisposition and drug response are critical issues. Clinical trials are the latter stages in the safety testing and efficacy process prior to market release, and as such serve as a critical safeguard. In this review, we look at some of the lessons to be learned from approaches to arrhythmia prediction in patients, clinical trials of drugs used in the treatment of arrhythmias, and the implications for the design of pre-clinical safety pharmacology testing.

The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tait Lynda

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Heart failure is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. As mortality rates are high, it is important that patients seen by general practitioners with symptoms suggestive of heart failure are identified quickly and treated appropriately. Identifying patients with heart failure or deciding which patients need further tests is a challenge. All patients with suspected heart failure should be diagnosed using objective tests such as echocardiography, but it is expensive, often delayed, and limited by the significant skill shortage of trained echocardiographers. Alternative approaches for diagnosing heart failure are currently limited. Clinical decision tools that combine clinical signs, symptoms or patient characteristics are designed to be used to support clinical decision-making and validated according to strict methodological procedures. The REFER Study aims to determine the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of our previously derived novel, simple clinical decision rule, a natriuretic peptide assay, or their combination, in the triage for referral for echocardiography of symptomatic adult patients who present in general practice with symptoms suggestive of heart failure. Methods/design This is a prospective, Phase II observational, diagnostic validation study of a clinical decision rule, natriuretic peptides or their combination, for diagnosing heart failure in primary care. Consecutive adult primary care patients 55 years of age or over presenting to their general practitioner with a chief complaint of recent new onset shortness of breath, lethargy or peripheral ankle oedema of over 48 hours duration, with no obvious recurrent, acute or self-limiting cause will be enrolled. Our reference standard is based upon a three step expert specialist consensus using echocardiography and clinical variables and tests. Discussion Our clinical decision rule offers a potential solution to the diagnostic challenge of providing a timely and

Biological couplings: Classification and characteristic rules

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2009-01-01

The phenomena that biological functions originate from biological coupling are the important biological foundation of multiple bionics and the significant discoveries in the bionic fields. In this paper, the basic concepts related to biological coupling are introduced from the bionic viewpoint. Constitution, classification and characteristic rules of biological coupling are illuminated, the general modes of biological coupling studies are analyzed, and the prospects of multi-coupling bionics are predicted.

CAsubtype: An R Package to Identify Gene Sets Predictive of Cancer Subtypes and Clinical Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Hualei; Tong, Pan; Zhao, Xiaodong; Sun, Jielin; Li, Hua

2018-03-01

In the past decade, molecular classification of cancer has gained high popularity owing to its high predictive power on clinical outcomes as compared with traditional methods commonly used in clinical practice. In particular, using gene expression profiles, recent studies have successfully identified a number of gene sets for the delineation of cancer subtypes that are associated with distinct prognosis. However, identification of such gene sets remains a laborious task due to the lack of tools with flexibility, integration and ease of use. To reduce the burden, we have developed an R package, CAsubtype, to efficiently identify gene sets predictive of cancer subtypes and clinical outcomes. By integrating more than 13,000 annotated gene sets, CAsubtype provides a comprehensive repertoire of candidates for new cancer subtype identification. For easy data access, CAsubtype further includes the gene expression and clinical data of more than 2000 cancer patients from TCGA. CAsubtype first employs principal component analysis to identify gene sets (from user-provided or package-integrated ones) with robust principal components representing significantly large variation between cancer samples. Based on these principal components, CAsubtype visualizes the sample distribution in low-dimensional space for better understanding of the distinction between samples and classifies samples into subgroups with prevalent clustering algorithms. Finally, CAsubtype performs survival analysis to compare the clinical outcomes between the identified subgroups, assessing their clinical value as potentially novel cancer subtypes. In conclusion, CAsubtype is a flexible and well-integrated tool in the R environment to identify gene sets for cancer subtype identification and clinical outcome prediction. Its simple R commands and comprehensive data sets enable efficient examination of the clinical value of any given gene set, thus facilitating hypothesis generating and testing in biological and

An XML-Based Manipulation and Query Language for Rule-Based Information

Science.gov (United States)

Mansour, Essam; Höpfner, Hagen

Rules are utilized to assist in the monitoring process that is required in activities, such as disease management and customer relationship management. These rules are specified according to the application best practices. Most of research efforts emphasize on the specification and execution of these rules. Few research efforts focus on managing these rules as one object that has a management life-cycle. This paper presents our manipulation and query language that is developed to facilitate the maintenance of this object during its life-cycle and to query the information contained in this object. This language is based on an XML-based model. Furthermore, we evaluate the model and language using a prototype system applied to a clinical case study.

Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

2012-01-01

The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

Accuracy of D-Dimers to Rule Out Venous Thromboembolism Events across Age Categories

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G. Der Sahakian

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Strategies combining pretest clinical assessment and D-dimers measurement efficiently and safely rule out venous thromboembolism events (VTE in low- and intermediate-risk patients. Objectives. As process of ageing is associated with altered concentrations of coagulation markers including an increase in D-dimers levels, we investigated whether D-dimers could reliably rule out VTE across age categories. Method. We prospectively assessed the test performance in 1,004 patients visiting the emergency department during the 6-month period with low or intermediate risk of VTE who also received additional diagnostic procedures. Results. 67 patients had VTE with D-dimers levels above the threshold, and 3 patients displayed D-dimers levels below the threshold. We observed that specificity of D-dimers test decreased in an age-dependent manner. However, sensitivity and negative predictive value remained at very high level in each age category including older patients. Conclusion. We conclude that, even though D-dimers level could provide numerous false positive results in elderly patients, its high sensitivity could reliably help physicians to exclude the diagnosis of VTE in every low- and intermediate-risk patient.

Emotional display rules as work unit norms: a multilevel analysis of emotional labor among nurses.

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Diefendorff, James M; Erickson, Rebecca J; Grandey, Alicia A; Dahling, Jason J

2011-04-01

Emotional labor theory has conceptualized emotional display rules as shared norms governing the expression of emotions at work. Using a sample of registered nurses working in different units of a hospital system, we provided the first empirical evidence that display rules can be represented as shared, unit-level beliefs. Additionally, controlling for the influence of dispositional affectivity, individual-level display rule perceptions, and emotion regulation, we found that unit-level display rules are associated with individual-level job satisfaction. We also showed that unit-level display rules relate to burnout indirectly through individual-level display rule perceptions and emotion regulation strategies. Finally, unit-level display rules also interacted with individual-level dispositional affectivity to predict employee use of emotion regulation strategies. We discuss how future research on emotional labor and display rules, particularly in the health care setting, can build on these findings.

Rules and routines in organizations and the management of safety rules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weichbrodt, J. Ch.

2013-07-01

This thesis is concerned with the relationship between rules and routines in organizations and how the former can be used to steer the latter. Rules are understood as formal organizational artifacts, whereas organizational routines are collective patterns of action. While research on routines has been thriving, a clear understanding of how rules can be used to influence or control organizational routines (and vice-versa) is still lacking. This question is of particular relevance to safety rules in high-risk organizations, where the way in which organizational routines unfold can ultimately be a matter of life and death. In these organizations, an important and related issue is the balancing of standardization and flexibility – which, in the case of rules, takes the form of finding the right degree of formalization. In high-risk organizations, the question is how to adequately regulate actors’ routines in order to facilitate safe behavior, while at the same time leaving enough leeway for actors to make good decisions in abnormal situations. The railroads are regarded as high-risk industries and also rely heavily on formal rules. In this thesis, the Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) were therefore selected for a field study on rules and routines. The issues outlined so far are being tackled theoretically (paper 1), empirically (paper 2), and from a practitioner’s (i.e., rule maker’s) point of view (paper 3). In paper 1, the relationship between rules and routines is theoretically conceptualized, based on a literature review. Literature on organizational control and coordination, on rules in human factors and safety, and on organizational routines is combined. Three distinct roles (rule maker, rule supervisor, and rule follower) are outlined. Six propositions are developed regarding the necessary characteristics of both routines and rules, the respective influence of the three roles on the rule-routine relationship, and regarding organizational aspects such as

Rules and routines in organizations and the management of safety rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weichbrodt, J. Ch.

2013-01-01

This thesis is concerned with the relationship between rules and routines in organizations and how the former can be used to steer the latter. Rules are understood as formal organizational artifacts, whereas organizational routines are collective patterns of action. While research on routines has been thriving, a clear understanding of how rules can be used to influence or control organizational routines (and vice-versa) is still lacking. This question is of particular relevance to safety rules in high-risk organizations, where the way in which organizational routines unfold can ultimately be a matter of life and death. In these organizations, an important and related issue is the balancing of standardization and flexibility – which, in the case of rules, takes the form of finding the right degree of formalization. In high-risk organizations, the question is how to adequately regulate actors’ routines in order to facilitate safe behavior, while at the same time leaving enough leeway for actors to make good decisions in abnormal situations. The railroads are regarded as high-risk industries and also rely heavily on formal rules. In this thesis, the Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) were therefore selected for a field study on rules and routines. The issues outlined so far are being tackled theoretically (paper 1), empirically (paper 2), and from a practitioner’s (i.e., rule maker’s) point of view (paper 3). In paper 1, the relationship between rules and routines is theoretically conceptualized, based on a literature review. Literature on organizational control and coordination, on rules in human factors and safety, and on organizational routines is combined. Three distinct roles (rule maker, rule supervisor, and rule follower) are outlined. Six propositions are developed regarding the necessary characteristics of both routines and rules, the respective influence of the three roles on the rule-routine relationship, and regarding organizational aspects such as

A clinical tool for predicting survival in ALS.

Science.gov (United States)

Knibb, Jonathan A; Keren, Noa; Kulka, Anna; Leigh, P Nigel; Martin, Sarah; Shaw, Christopher E; Tsuda, Miho; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

2016-12-01

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and usually fatal neurodegenerative disease. Survival from diagnosis varies considerably. Several prognostic factors are known, including site of onset (bulbar or limb), age at symptom onset, delay from onset to diagnosis and the use of riluzole and non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Clinicians and patients would benefit from a practical way of using these factors to provide an individualised prognosis. 575 consecutive patients with incident ALS from a population-based registry in South-East England register for ALS (SEALS) were studied. Their survival was modelled as a two-step process: the time from diagnosis to respiratory muscle involvement, followed by the time from respiratory involvement to death. The effects of predictor variables were assessed separately for each time interval. Younger age at symptom onset, longer delay from onset to diagnosis and riluzole use were associated with slower progression to respiratory involvement, and NIV use was associated with lower mortality after respiratory involvement, each with a clinically significant effect size. Riluzole may have a greater effect in younger patients and those with longer delay to diagnosis. A patient's survival time has a roughly 50% chance of falling between half and twice the predicted median. A simple and clinically applicable graphical method of predicting an individual patient's survival from diagnosis is presented. The model should be validated in an independent cohort, and extended to include other important prognostic factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Selection rule for Dirac-like points in two-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals

KAUST Repository

Li, Yan

2013-01-01

We developed a selection rule for Dirac-like points in two-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals. The rule is derived from a perturbation theory and states that a non-zero, mode-coupling integral between the degenerate Bloch states guarantees a Dirac-like point, regardless of the type of the degeneracy. In fact, the selection rule can also be determined from the symmetry of the Bloch states even without computing the integral. Thus, the existence of Dirac-like points can be quickly and conclusively predicted for various photonic crystals independent of wave polarization, lattice structure, and composition. © 2013 Optical Society of America.

Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Theresa F.

In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Predicting dynamic knee joint load with clinical measures in people with medial knee osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Michael A; Bennell, Kim L

2011-08-01

Knee joint loading, as measured by the knee adduction moment (KAM), has been implicated in the pathogenesis of knee osteoarthritis (OA). Given that the KAM can only currently be accurately measured in the laboratory setting with sophisticated and expensive equipment, its utility in the clinical setting is limited. This study aimed to determine the ability of a combination of four clinical measures to predict KAM values. Three-dimensional motion analysis was used to calculate the peak KAM at a self-selected walking speed in 47 consecutive individuals with medial compartment knee OA and varus malalignment. Clinical predictors included: body mass; tibial angle measured using an inclinometer; walking speed; and visually observed trunk lean toward the affected limb during the stance phase of walking. Multiple linear regression was performed to predict KAM magnitudes using the four clinical measures. A regression model including body mass (41% explained variance), tibial angle (17% explained variance), and walking speed (9% explained variance) explained a total of 67% of variance in the peak KAM. Our study demonstrates that a set of measures easily obtained in the clinical setting (body mass, tibial alignment, and walking speed) can help predict the KAM in people with medial knee OA. Identifying those patients who are more likely to experience high medial knee loads could assist clinicians in deciding whether load-modifying interventions may be appropriate for patients, whilst repeated assessment of joint load could provide a mechanism to monitor disease progression or success of treatment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Numerical Comparison of Rule Ensemble Methods and Support Vector Machines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meza, Juan C.; Woods, Mark

2009-12-18

Machine or statistical learning is a growing field that encompasses many scientific problems including estimating parameters from data, identifying risk factors in health studies, image recognition, and finding clusters within datasets, to name just a few examples. Statistical learning can be described as 'learning from data' , with the goal of making a prediction of some outcome of interest. This prediction is usually made on the basis of a computer model that is built using data where the outcomes and a set of features have been previously matched. The computer model is called a learner, hence the name machine learning. In this paper, we present two such algorithms, a support vector machine method and a rule ensemble method. We compared their predictive power on three supernova type 1a data sets provided by the Nearby Supernova Factory and found that while both methods give accuracies of approximately 95%, the rule ensemble method gives much lower false negative rates.

A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schuit, E.; Kwee, A.; Westerhuis, M. E. M. H.; van Dessel, H. J. H. M.; Graziosi, G. C. M.; van Lith, J. M. M.; Nijhuis, J. G.; Oei, S. G.; Oosterbaan, H. P.; Schuitemaker, N. W. E.; Wouters, M. G. A. J.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.; Moons, K. G. M.; Groenwold, R. H. H.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Schuit E, Kwee A, Westerhuis M, Van Dessel H, Graziosi G, Van Lith J, Nijhuis J, Oei S, Oosterbaan H, Schuitemaker N, Wouters M, Visser G, Mol B, Moons K, Groenwold R. A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery. BJOG 2012;119:915923. Objective To

Selection rules for electron transfer to the continuum in ion-atom collision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barrachina, R.O.; Bernardi, G.C.; Garibotti, C.R.

1985-10-01

We consider the process of electron transfer to the in first order Born approximation. We analyse the expansion of the double-differential cross section in series of electron velocity and ejection angle. We found that the coefficients obey precise selection rules. We discuss the relation of these rules, which predict an asymmetric shape for the electron loss to the continuum cusp, with the interpretation of recent experimental results.

Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data?

Science.gov (United States)

Kai, Joe; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.; Qureshi, Nadeem

2017-01-01

Background Current approaches to predict cardiovascular risk fail to identify many people who would benefit from preventive treatment, while others receive unnecessary intervention. Machine-learning offers opportunity to improve accuracy by exploiting complex interactions between risk factors. We assessed whether machine-learning can improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods Prospective cohort study using routine clinical data of 378,256 patients from UK family practices, free from cardiovascular disease at outset. Four machine-learning algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, gradient boosting machines, neural networks) were compared to an established algorithm (American College of Cardiology guidelines) to predict first cardiovascular event over 10-years. Predictive accuracy was assessed by area under the ‘receiver operating curve’ (AUC); and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) to predict 7.5% cardiovascular risk (threshold for initiating statins). Findings 24,970 incident cardiovascular events (6.6%) occurred. Compared to the established risk prediction algorithm (AUC 0.728, 95% CI 0.723–0.735), machine-learning algorithms improved prediction: random forest +1.7% (AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.739–0.750), logistic regression +3.2% (AUC 0.760, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), gradient boosting +3.3% (AUC 0.761, 95% CI 0.755–0.766), neural networks +3.6% (AUC 0.764, 95% CI 0.759–0.769). The highest achieving (neural networks) algorithm predicted 4,998/7,404 cases (sensitivity 67.5%, PPV 18.4%) and 53,458/75,585 non-cases (specificity 70.7%, NPV 95.7%), correctly predicting 355 (+7.6%) more patients who developed cardiovascular disease compared to the established algorithm. Conclusions Machine-learning significantly improves accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment, while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others

A Wear Rule and Cutter Life Prediction Model of a 20-in. TBM Cutter for Granite: A Case Study of a Water Conveyance Tunnel in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Quansheng; Liu, Jianping; Pan, Yucong; Zhang, Xiaoping; Peng, Xingxin; Gong, Qiuming; Du, Lijie

2017-05-01

Disc cutter wear is one of the comprehensive results of the rock-machine interaction in tunnel boring machine (TBM) tunneling. The replacement of the disc cutter is a time-consuming and costly activity that can significantly reduce the TBM utilization ( U) and advance rate (AR), and has a major effect on the total time and cost of TBM tunneling projects. Therefore, the importance of predicting the cutter life accurately can never be overemphasized. Most cutter wear prediction models are only suitable for 17-in. or smaller disc cutters. However, use of large-diameter disc cutters has been an irresistible trend for large-section hard rock TBMs. This study attempts to reveal the genuine wear rule of a 20-in. disc cutter and develop a new empirical model for predicting the cutter life in granite based on field data collected from a water conveyance tunnel constructed by the TBM tunneling method in China. The field data including the actual cutter wear and the geological parameters along the studied tunnel were compiled in a special database that was subjected to statistical analysis to reveal the genuine wear rule of a 20-in. disc cutter and develop the reasonable correlations between some common intact rock parameters and the disc cutter life. These equations were developed based on data from massive to very massive granite with a UCS range of 40-100 MPa, which can be applied for the assessment of the cutter life of a 20-in. disc cutter in similar hard rock projects with similar rock strengths and rock abrasivities.

Beyond discrimination: A comparison of calibration methods and clinical usefulness of predictive models of readmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Colin G; Sharman, Kavya; Hripcsak, George

2017-12-01

Prior to implementing predictive models in novel settings, analyses of calibration and clinical usefulness remain as important as discrimination, but they are not frequently discussed. Calibration is a model's reflection of actual outcome prevalence in its predictions. Clinical usefulness refers to the utilities, costs, and harms of using a predictive model in practice. A decision analytic approach to calibrating and selecting an optimal intervention threshold may help maximize the impact of readmission risk and other preventive interventions. To select a pragmatic means of calibrating predictive models that requires a minimum amount of validation data and that performs well in practice. To evaluate the impact of miscalibration on utility and cost via clinical usefulness analyses. Observational, retrospective cohort study with electronic health record data from 120,000 inpatient admissions at an urban, academic center in Manhattan. The primary outcome was thirty-day readmission for three causes: all-cause, congestive heart failure, and chronic coronary atherosclerotic disease. Predictive modeling was performed via L1-regularized logistic regression. Calibration methods were compared including Platt Scaling, Logistic Calibration, and Prevalence Adjustment. Performance of predictive modeling and calibration was assessed via discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (Spiegelhalter Z-statistic, Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] of binned predictions, Sanders and Murphy Resolutions of the Brier Score, Calibration Slope and Intercept), and clinical usefulness (utility terms represented as costs). The amount of validation data necessary to apply each calibration algorithm was also assessed. C-statistics by diagnosis ranged from 0.7 for all-cause readmission to 0.86 (0.78-0.93) for congestive heart failure. Logistic Calibration and Platt Scaling performed best and this difference required analyzing multiple metrics of calibration simultaneously, in particular Calibration

Exploration of SWRL Rule Bases through Visualization, Paraphrasing, and Categorization of Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanpour, Saeed; O'Connor, Martin J.; Das, Amar K.

Rule bases are increasingly being used as repositories of knowledge content on the Semantic Web. As the size and complexity of these rule bases increases, developers and end users need methods of rule abstraction to facilitate rule management. In this paper, we describe a rule abstraction method for Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL) rules that is based on lexical analysis and a set of heuristics. Our method results in a tree data structure that we exploit in creating techniques to visualize, paraphrase, and categorize SWRL rules. We evaluate our approach by applying it to several biomedical ontologies that contain SWRL rules, and show how the results reveal rule patterns within the rule base. We have implemented our method as a plug-in tool for Protégé-OWL, the most widely used ontology modeling software for the Semantic Web. Our tool can allow users to rapidly explore content and patterns in SWRL rule bases, enabling their acquisition and management.

Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

2009-08-01

Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis

Advancing Continuous Predictive Analytics Monitoring: Moving from Implementation to Clinical Action in a Learning Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Keim-Malpass, Jessica; Kitzmiller, Rebecca R; Skeeles-Worley, Angela; Lindberg, Curt; Clark, Matthew T; Tai, Robert; Calland, James Forrest; Sullivan, Kevin; Randall Moorman, J; Anderson, Ruth A

2018-06-01

In the intensive care unit, clinicians monitor a diverse array of data inputs to detect early signs of impending clinical demise or improvement. Continuous predictive analytics monitoring synthesizes data from a variety of inputs into a risk estimate that clinicians can observe in a streaming environment. For this to be useful, clinicians must engage with the data in a way that makes sense for their clinical workflow in the context of a learning health system (LHS). This article describes the processes needed to evoke clinical action after initiation of continuous predictive analytics monitoring in an LHS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting clinical symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder based on temporal patterns between and within intrinsic connectivity networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xun-Heng; Jiao, Yun; Li, Lihua

2017-10-24

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common brain disorder with high prevalence in school-age children. Previously developed machine learning-based methods have discriminated patients with ADHD from normal controls by providing label information of the disease for individuals. Inattention and impulsivity are the two most significant clinical symptoms of ADHD. However, predicting clinical symptoms (i.e., inattention and impulsivity) is a challenging task based on neuroimaging data. The goal of this study is twofold: to build predictive models for clinical symptoms of ADHD based on resting-state fMRI and to mine brain networks for predictive patterns of inattention and impulsivity. To achieve this goal, a cohort of 74 boys with ADHD and a cohort of 69 age-matched normal controls were recruited from the ADHD-200 Consortium. Both structural and resting-state fMRI images were obtained for each participant. Temporal patterns between and within intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) were applied as raw features in the predictive models. Specifically, sample entropy was taken asan intra-ICN feature, and phase synchronization (PS) was used asan inter-ICN feature. The predictive models were based on the least absolute shrinkage and selectionator operator (LASSO) algorithm. The performance of the predictive model for inattention is r=0.79 (p<10 -8 ), and the performance of the predictive model for impulsivity is r=0.48 (p<10 -8 ). The ICN-related predictive patterns may provide valuable information for investigating the brain network mechanisms of ADHD. In summary, the predictive models for clinical symptoms could be beneficial for personalizing ADHD medications. Copyright © 2017 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification Based on Pruning and Double Covered Rule Sets for the Internet of Things Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Zhongmei; Wang, Weiping

2014-01-01

The Internet of things (IOT) is a hot issue in recent years. It accumulates large amounts of data by IOT users, which is a great challenge to mining useful knowledge from IOT. Classification is an effective strategy which can predict the need of users in IOT. However, many traditional rule-based classifiers cannot guarantee that all instances can be covered by at least two classification rules. Thus, these algorithms cannot achieve high accuracy in some datasets. In this paper, we propose a new rule-based classification, CDCR-P (Classification based on the Pruning and Double Covered Rule sets). CDCR-P can induce two different rule sets A and B. Every instance in training set can be covered by at least one rule not only in rule set A, but also in rule set B. In order to improve the quality of rule set B, we take measure to prune the length of rules in rule set B. Our experimental results indicate that, CDCR-P not only is feasible, but also it can achieve high accuracy. PMID:24511304

Classification based on pruning and double covered rule sets for the internet of things applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shasha; Zhou, Zhongmei; Wang, Weiping

2014-01-01

The Internet of things (IOT) is a hot issue in recent years. It accumulates large amounts of data by IOT users, which is a great challenge to mining useful knowledge from IOT. Classification is an effective strategy which can predict the need of users in IOT. However, many traditional rule-based classifiers cannot guarantee that all instances can be covered by at least two classification rules. Thus, these algorithms cannot achieve high accuracy in some datasets. In this paper, we propose a new rule-based classification, CDCR-P (Classification based on the Pruning and Double Covered Rule sets). CDCR-P can induce two different rule sets A and B. Every instance in training set can be covered by at least one rule not only in rule set A, but also in rule set B. In order to improve the quality of rule set B, we take measure to prune the length of rules in rule set B. Our experimental results indicate that, CDCR-P not only is feasible, but also it can achieve high accuracy.

Australian road rules

Science.gov (United States)

2009-02-01

*These are national-level rules. Australian Road Rules - 2009 Version, Part 18, Division 1, Rule 300 "Use of Mobile Phones" describes restrictions of mobile phone use while driving. The rule basically states that drivers cannot make or receive calls ...

A Regularized Deep Learning Approach for Clinical Risk Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Using Electronic Health Records.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong; Liu, Jiquan

2018-05-01

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as a common and severe cardiovascular disease, is a leading cause of death and the principal cause of serious long-term disability globally. Clinical risk prediction of ACS is important for early intervention and treatment. Existing ACS risk scoring models are based mainly on a small set of hand-picked risk factors and often dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. This study develops a regularized stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) model to stratify clinical risks of ACS patients from a large volume of electronic health records (EHR). To capture characteristics of patients at similar risk levels, and preserve the discriminating information across different risk levels, two constraints are added on SDAE to make the reconstructed feature representations contain more risk information of patients, which contribute to a better clinical risk prediction result. We validate our approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 3464 ACS patient samples. The performance of our approach for predicting ACS risk remains robust and reaches 0.868 and 0.73 in terms of both AUC and accuracy, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed approach achieves a competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art models in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ACS via a reconstructive learning strategy. Some of these extracted risk factors are not only consistent with existing medical domain knowledge, but also contain suggestive hypotheses that could be validated by further investigations in the medical domain.

Exploring Jordan's rule in Pacific three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, M R J; Petrovitch, E; Bowles, E; Jamniczky, H A; Rogers, S M

2017-08-01

Coastal marine Gasterosteus aculeatus were captured from seven locations along the Pacific coast of North America, ranging across 21·8° latitude to test Jordan's rule, i.e. that vertebral number should increase with increasing latitude for related populations of fish. Vertebral number significantly increased with increasing latitude for both total and caudal vertebral number. Increasing length with latitude (sensu Bergmann's rule) was also supported, but the predictions for Jordan's rule held when controlling for standard length. Pleomerism was weakly evidenced. Gasterosteus aculeatus exhibited sexual dimorphism for Jordan's rule, with both sexes having more vertebrae at higher latitudes, but only males showing a positive association between latitude and the ratio of caudal to abdominal vertebrae. The number of dorsal- and anal-fin rays and basals increased with increasing latitude, while pectoral-fin ray number decreased. This study reinforces the association between phenotypic variation and environmental variation in marine populations of G. aculeatus. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Rule Versus the Causality Rule in Insurance Law

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lando, Henrik

When the Buyer of insurance has negligently kept silent or misrepresented a (material) fact to the Seller, one of two rules will determine the extent to which cover will consequently be reduced. The pro-rata rule lowers cover in proportion to how much the Seller would have increased the premium had...... he been correctly informed; the causality rule provides either zero cover if the omitted fact has caused the insurance event, or full cover if the event would have occurred regardless of the fact. This article explores which rule is more efficient. Using the framework proposed by Picard and Dixit...... it subjects the risk averse Buyer of insurance to less variance. This implies that the pro rata rule should apply when there is significant risk for a Buyer of unintentional misrepresentation, and when the incentive to intentionally misrepresent can be curtailed through frequent verification of the Buyer...

Dividend Predictability Around the World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2014-01-01

We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

Dividend Predictability Around the World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

OrderRex: clinical order decision support and outcome predictions by data-mining electronic medical records.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jonathan H; Podchiyska, Tanya; Altman, Russ B

2016-03-01

To answer a "grand challenge" in clinical decision support, the authors produced a recommender system that automatically data-mines inpatient decision support from electronic medical records (EMR), analogous to Netflix or Amazon.com's product recommender. EMR data were extracted from 1 year of hospitalizations (>18K patients with >5.4M structured items including clinical orders, lab results, and diagnosis codes). Association statistics were counted for the ∼1.5K most common items to drive an order recommender. The authors assessed the recommender's ability to predict hospital admission orders and outcomes based on initial encounter data from separate validation patients. Compared to a reference benchmark of using the overall most common orders, the recommender using temporal relationships improves precision at 10 recommendations from 33% to 38% (P < 10(-10)) for hospital admission orders. Relative risk-based association methods improve inverse frequency weighted recall from 4% to 16% (P < 10(-16)). The framework yields a prediction receiver operating characteristic area under curve (c-statistic) of 0.84 for 30 day mortality, 0.84 for 1 week need for ICU life support, 0.80 for 1 week hospital discharge, and 0.68 for 30-day readmission. Recommender results quantitatively improve on reference benchmarks and qualitatively appear clinically reasonable. The method assumes that aggregate decision making converges appropriately, but ongoing evaluation is necessary to discern common behaviors from "correct" ones. Collaborative filtering recommender algorithms generate clinical decision support that is predictive of real practice patterns and clinical outcomes. Incorporating temporal relationships improves accuracy. Different evaluation metrics satisfy different goals (predicting likely events vs. "interesting" suggestions). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association 2015. This work is written by US Government

Beautiful mesons from QCD spectral sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narison, S.

1991-01-01

We discuss the beautiful meson from the point of view of the QCD spectral sum rules (QSSR). The bottom quark mass and the mixed light quark-gluon condensates are determined quite accurately. The decay constant f B is estimated and we present some arguments supporting this result. The decay constants and the masses of the other members of the beautiful meson family are predicted. (orig.)

Predicting the risk of suicide by analyzing the text of clinical notes.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulin, Chris; Shiner, Brian; Thompson, Paul; Vepstas, Linas; Young-Xu, Yinong; Goertzel, Benjamin; Watts, Bradley; Flashman, Laura; McAllister, Thomas

2014-01-01

We developed linguistics-driven prediction models to estimate the risk of suicide. These models were generated from unstructured clinical notes taken from a national sample of U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) medical records. We created three matched cohorts: veterans who committed suicide, veterans who used mental health services and did not commit suicide, and veterans who did not use mental health services and did not commit suicide during the observation period (n = 70 in each group). From the clinical notes, we generated datasets of single keywords and multi-word phrases, and constructed prediction models using a machine-learning algorithm based on a genetic programming framework. The resulting inference accuracy was consistently 65% or more. Our data therefore suggests that computerized text analytics can be applied to unstructured medical records to estimate the risk of suicide. The resulting system could allow clinicians to potentially screen seemingly healthy patients at the primary care level, and to continuously evaluate the suicide risk among psychiatric patients.

Predicting the Risk of Suicide by Analyzing the Text of Clinical Notes

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Paul; Vepstas, Linas; Young-Xu, Yinong; Goertzel, Benjamin; Watts, Bradley; Flashman, Laura; McAllister, Thomas

2014-01-01

We developed linguistics-driven prediction models to estimate the risk of suicide. These models were generated from unstructured clinical notes taken from a national sample of U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) medical records. We created three matched cohorts: veterans who committed suicide, veterans who used mental health services and did not commit suicide, and veterans who did not use mental health services and did not commit suicide during the observation period (n = 70 in each group). From the clinical notes, we generated datasets of single keywords and multi-word phrases, and constructed prediction models using a machine-learning algorithm based on a genetic programming framework. The resulting inference accuracy was consistently 65% or more. Our data therefore suggests that computerized text analytics can be applied to unstructured medical records to estimate the risk of suicide. The resulting system could allow clinicians to potentially screen seemingly healthy patients at the primary care level, and to continuously evaluate the suicide risk among psychiatric patients. PMID:24489669

Predicting clinically unrecognized coronary artery disease: use of two- dimensional echocardiography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nagueh Sherif F

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background 2-D Echo is often performed in patients without history of coronary artery disease (CAD. We sought to determine echo features predictive of CAD. Methods 2-D Echo of 328 patients without known CAD performed within one year prior to stress myocardial SPECT and angiography were reviewed. Echo features examined were left ventricular and atrial enlargement, LV hypertrophy, wall motion abnormality (WMA, LV ejection fraction (EF 15% LV perfusion defect or multivessel distribution. Severe coronary artery stenosis (CAS was defined as left main, 3 VD or 2VD involving proximal LAD. Results The mean age was 62 ± 13 years, 59% men, 29% diabetic (DM and 148 (45% had > 2 risk factors. Pharmacologic stress was performed in 109 patients (33%. MPA was present in 200 pts (60% of which, 137 were high risk. CAS was present in 166 pts (51%, 75 were severe. Of 87 patients with WMA, 83% had MPA and 78% had CAS. Multivariate analysis identified age >65, male, inability to exercise, DM, WMA, MAC and AS as independent predictors of MPA and CAS. Independent predictors of high risk MPA and severe CAS were age, DM, inability to exercise and WMA. 2-D echo findings offered incremental value over clinical information in predicting CAD by angiography. (Chi square: 360 vs. 320 p = 0.02. Conclusion 2-D Echo was valuable in predicting presence of physiological and anatomical CAD in addition to clinical information.

A Study of Pattern Prediction in the Monitoring Data of Earthen Ruins with the Internet of Things.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Yun; Wang, Xin; Eshragh, Faezeh; Wang, Xuanhong; Chen, Xiaojiang; Fang, Dingyi

2017-05-11

An understanding of the changes of the rammed earth temperature of earthen ruins is important for protection of such ruins. To predict the rammed earth temperature pattern using the air temperature pattern of the monitoring data of earthen ruins, a pattern prediction method based on interesting pattern mining and correlation, called PPER, is proposed in this paper. PPER first finds the interesting patterns in the air temperature sequence and the rammed earth temperature sequence. To reduce the processing time, two pruning rules and a new data structure based on an R-tree are also proposed. Correlation rules between the air temperature patterns and the rammed earth temperature patterns are then mined. The correlation rules are merged into predictive rules for the rammed earth temperature pattern. Experiments were conducted to show the accuracy of the presented method and the power of the pruning rules. Moreover, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall dataset was used to examine the algorithm, and six predictive rules from the air temperature to rammed earth temperature based on the interesting patterns were obtained, with the average hit rate reaching 89.8%. The PPER and predictive rules will be useful for rammed earth temperature prediction in protection of earthen ruins.

Data Science Solution to Event Prediction in Outsourced Clinical Trial Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalevi, Daniel; Lovick, Susan; Mann, Helen; Metcalfe, Paul D; Spencer, Stuart; Hollis, Sally; Ruau, David

2015-01-01

Late phase clinical trials are regularly outsourced to a Contract Research Organisation (CRO) while the risk and accountability remain within the sponsor company. Many statistical tasks are delivered by the CRO and later revalidated by the sponsor. Here, we report a technological approach to standardised event prediction. We have built a dynamic web application around an R-package with the aim of delivering reliable event predictions, simplifying communication and increasing trust between the CRO and the in-house statisticians via transparency. Short learning curve, interactivity, reproducibility and data diagnostics are key here. The current implementation is motivated by time-to-event prediction in oncology. We demonstrate a clear benefit of standardisation for both parties. The tool can be used for exploration, communication, sensitivity analysis and generating standard reports. At this point we wish to present this tool and share some of the insights we have gained during the development.

Mutational and putative neoantigen load predict clinical benefit of adoptive T cell therapy in melanoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauss, Martin; Donia, Marco; Harbst, Katja

2017-01-01

Adoptive T-cell therapy (ACT) is a highly intensive immunotherapy regime that has yielded remarkable response rates and many durable responses in clinical trials in melanoma; however, 50-60% of the patients have no clinical benefit. Here, we searched for predictive biomarkers to ACT in melanoma. ...

Microbiopsy a first-level diagnostic test to rule out oral dysplasia or carcinoma in general dental practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Pentenero, M; Val, M; Rosso, S; Gandolfo, S

2018-03-01

Diagnostic delay in oral oncology could be improved if general dentists had a reliable and easy-to-use first-level diagnostic test to rule out the presence of oral dysplasia or carcinoma. Microbiopsy has been proved to have high sensitivity and high negative predictive value in a clinical setting characterized by high prevalence of disease. Moreover, it has been proved to be easily performed by general dentists. This study aimed to determine the negative predictive value of microbiopsy in routine dental practice: a clinical setting characterized by low prevalence of disease. Within the frame of a previous study, general dentists from the Metropolitan Area of Turin performed microbiopsy for each oral mucosal lesion detected during their practice. The clinical outcome of 129 lesions negative at microbiopsy was checked by a query performed through the database of the Piedmont Cancer Registry, covering the population of the Metropolitan Area of Turin, with particular reference to cancer involving the mouth (ICD-10:C03-06). This allowed us to define "true negative" cases and to calculate the negative predictive value of microbiopsy. In a mean follow-up of 7.5 years (range 7-9 years), with a dropout rate of 7.7%, no case of tumour involving the mouth was observed, thus revealing a negative predictive value approaching 100%. Microbiopsy represents an easy-to-use and reliable first-level test able to aid general dentists to select patients requiring an oral medicine assessment in a short time and definitely to avoid diagnostic delay in oncologically relevant oral mucosal lesions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the predictive accuracy and the clinical benefit of a nomogram aimed to predict survival in node-positive prostate cancer patients: External validation on a multi-institutional database.

Science.gov (United States)

Bianchi, Lorenzo; Schiavina, Riccardo; Borghesi, Marco; Bianchi, Federico Mineo; Briganti, Alberto; Carini, Marco; Terrone, Carlo; Mottrie, Alex; Gacci, Mauro; Gontero, Paolo; Imbimbo, Ciro; Marchioro, Giansilvio; Milanese, Giulio; Mirone, Vincenzo; Montorsi, Francesco; Morgia, Giuseppe; Novara, Giacomo; Porreca, Angelo; Volpe, Alessandro; Brunocilla, Eugenio

2018-04-06

To assess the predictive accuracy and the clinical value of a recent nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after surgery in pN1 prostate cancer patients through an external validation. We evaluated 518 prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection with evidence of nodal metastases at final pathology, at 10 tertiary centers. External validation was carried out using regression coefficients of the previously published nomogram. The performance characteristics of the model were assessed by quantifying predictive accuracy, according to the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic curve and model calibration. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for each nomogram-derived probability cut-off. Finally, we implemented decision curve analysis, in order to quantify the nomogram's clinical value in routine practice. External validation showed inferior predictive accuracy as referred to in the internal validation (65.8% vs 83.3%, respectively). The discrimination (area under the curve) of the multivariable model was 66.7% (95% CI 60.1-73.0%) by testing with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The calibration plot showed an overestimation throughout the range of predicted cancer-specific mortality-free survival rates probabilities. However, in decision curve analysis, the nomogram's use showed a net benefit when compared with the scenarios of treating all patients or none. In an external setting, the nomogram showed inferior predictive accuracy and suboptimal calibration characteristics as compared to that reported in the original population. However, decision curve analysis showed a clinical net benefit, suggesting a clinical implication to correctly manage pN1 prostate cancer patients after surgery. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minoo Aminian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes, since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web.

Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

OpenAIRE

Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus BM; Schmitz, Christoph

2014-01-01

Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predict...

SU-G-BRC-01: A Data-Driven Pre-Optimization Method for Prediction of Achievability of Clinical Objectives in IMRT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ranganathan, V; Kumar, P [Philips India Limited, Bangalore, Karnataka (India); Bzdusek, K [Philips, Fitchburg, WI (United States); Das, J Maria [Sanjay Gandhi PG Inst Med Scienes, Lucknow (India)

2016-06-15

Purpose: We propose a novel data-driven method to predict the achievability of clinical objectives upfront before invoking the IMRT optimization. Methods: A new metric called “Geometric Complexity (GC)” is used to estimate the achievability of clinical objectives. Here, GC is the measure of the number of “unmodulated” beamlets or rays that intersect the Region-of-interest (ROI) and the target volume. We first compute the geometric complexity ratio (GCratio) between the GC of a ROI (say, parotid) in a reference plan and the GC of the same ROI in a given plan. The GCratio of a ROI indicates the relative geometric complexity of the ROI as compared to the same ROI in the reference plan. Hence GCratio can be used to predict if a defined clinical objective associated with the ROI can be met by the optimizer for a given case. Basically a higher GCratio indicates a lesser likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for a given ROI. Similarly, a lower GCratio indicates a higher likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for the given ROI. We have evaluated the proposed method on four Head and Neck cases using Pinnacle3 (version 9.10.0) Treatment Planning System (TPS). Results: Out of the total of 28 clinical objectives from four head and neck cases included in the study, 25 were in agreement with the prediction, which implies an agreement of about 85% between predicted and obtained results. The Pearson correlation test shows a positive correlation between predicted and obtained results (Correlation = 0.82, r2 = 0.64, p < 0.005). Conclusion: The study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method in head and neck cases for predicting the achievability of clinical objectives with reasonable accuracy.

Base Oils Biodegradability Prediction with Data Mining Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malika Trabelsi

2010-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we apply various data mining techniques including continuous numeric and discrete classification prediction models of base oils biodegradability, with emphasis on improving prediction accuracy. The results show that highly biodegradable oils can be better predicted through numeric models. In contrast, classification models did not uncover a similar dichotomy. With the exception of Memory Based Reasoning and Decision Trees, tested classification techniques achieved high classification prediction. However, the technique of Decision Trees helped uncover the most significant predictors. A simple classification rule derived based on this predictor resulted in good classification accuracy. The application of this rule enables efficient classification of base oils into either low or high biodegradability classes with high accuracy. For the latter, a higher precision biodegradability prediction can be obtained using continuous modeling techniques.

IOTA simple rules in differentiating between benign and malignant ovarian tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tantipalakorn, Charuwan; Wanapirak, Chanane; Khunamornpong, Surapan; Sukpan, Kornkanok; Tongsong, Theera

2014-01-01

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of IOTA simple rules in differentiating between benign and malignant ovarian tumors. A study of diagnostic performance was conducted on women scheduled for elective surgery due to ovarian masses between March 2007 and March 2012. All patients underwent ultrasound examination for IOTA simple rules within 24 hours of surgery. All examinations were performed by the authors, who had no any clinical information of the patients, to differentiate between benign and malignant adnexal masses using IOTA simple rules. Gold standard diagnosis was based on pathological or operative findings. A total of 398 adnexal masses, in 376 women, were available for analysis. Of them, the IOTA simple rules could be applied in 319 (80.1%) including 212 (66.5%) benign tumors and 107 (33.6%) malignant tumors. The simple rules yielded inconclusive results in 79 (19.9%) masses. In the 319 masses for which the IOTA simple rules could be applied, sensitivity was 82.9% and specificity 95.3%. The IOTA simple rules have high diagnostic performance in differentiating between benign and malignant adnexal masses. Nevertheless, inconclusive results are relatively common.

Delayed rule following

OpenAIRE

Schmitt, David R.

2001-01-01

Although the elements of a fully stated rule (discriminative stimulus [SD], some behavior, and a consequence) can occur nearly contemporaneously with the statement of the rule, there is often a delay between the rule statement and the SD. The effects of this delay on rule following have not been studied in behavior analysis, but they have been investigated in rule-like settings in the areas of prospective memory (remembering to do something in the future) and goal pursuit. Discriminative even...

DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY OF CLINICAL AND MAGNETIC RESONANCE IN KNEE MENISCI AND LIGAMENTOUS INJURIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilesh

2016-03-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of clinical diagnosis compared to MRI findings in ligamentous and meniscal injuries with respect to arthroscopic confirmation as a gold standard. METHODS 485 patients with knee injuries were prospectively assessed by clinical evaluation and magnetic resonance imaging and correlated after therapeutic arthroscopy. The overall accuracy, clinically productive values of sensitivity and specificity was derived. The actual value of the test with respect to positive predictive and negative predictive value was also derived, taking arthroscopic findings as confirmatory. The overall partial and total agreement among the clinical, MRI and arthroscopy was documented. RESULTS The overall accuracy for clinical examination was 85, 92, 100 and 100 and accuracy for MRI was 90, 97, 97 and 97 for detecting medial meniscus, lateral meniscus, ACL and PCL tears respectively. Clinically lateral meniscus tears are difficult to diagnose clinically with negative predictive value (90 whereas ACL injuries do not need MRI for diagnosis as evident by a high negative predictive value (100 of clinical examination. Total agreement with the clinical findings confirmed by arthroscopy was 64.40% which was relatively high as compared to total agreement of MRI findings which was only 31.50%. We found similar total agreement versus total disagreement of both clinical and MRI to be only 2.74% indicating very high accuracy in clinical diagnosis of meniscal and ligamentous injuries combined. CONCLUSION The clinical evaluation alone is sufficient to diagnose meniscal and ACL/PCL pathologies and MRI should be considered only as a powerful negative diagnostic tool. The arthroscopy decision should not be heavily dependent on MRI for ligamentous injuries but reverse is true for meniscal lesions. MR evaluation functions as a powerful negative diagnostic tool to rule out doubtful and complex knee injuries.

Location of brain lesions predicts conversion of clinically isolated syndromes to multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giorgio, Antonio; Battaglini, Marco; Rocca, Maria Assunta

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To assess in a large population of patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) the relevance of brain lesion location and frequency in predicting 1-year conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: In this multicenter, retrospective study, clinical and MRI data at onset......: In CIS patients with hemispheric, multifocal, and brainstem/cerebellar onset, lesion probability map clusters were seen in clinically eloquent brain regions. Significant lesion clusters were not found in CIS patients with optic nerve and spinal cord onset. At 1 year, clinically definite MS developed...... in the converting group in projection, association, and commissural WM tracts, with larger clusters being in the corpus callosum, corona radiata, and cingulum. CONCLUSIONS: Higher frequency of lesion occurrence in clinically eloquent WM tracts can characterize CIS subjects with different types of onset...

Clinical Studies of Real-Time Monitoring of Lithotripter Performance Using Passive Acoustic Sensors

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Leighton, T. G.; Fedele, F.; Coleman, A. J.; McCarthy, C.; Ryves, S.; Hurrell, A. M.; De Stefano, A.; White, P. R.

2008-09-01

), comparison of the opinion of the urologist at follow-up with the acoustically derived judgment identified a good correlation (kappa = 0.94), the device demonstrating a sensitivity of 91.7% (in that it correctly predicted 11 of the 12 treatments which the urologist stated had been `successful' at the 3-week follow-up), and a specificity of 100% (in that it correctly predicted all of the 37 treatments which the urologist stated had been `unsuccessful' at the 3-week follow-up). The `gold standard' opinion of the urologist (CTS2) correlated poorly (kappa = 0.38) with the end-of-treatment opinion of the radiographer (CTS1). This is due to the limited resolution of the lithotripter X-Ray fluoroscopy system. If the results of phase 1 and phase 2 are pooled to form a dataset against which retrospectively to test the rules drawn up in phase 1, when compared with the gold standard CTS2, over the two clinical trials (79 patients) the device-derived scored (TS0) correctly predicted the clinical effectiveness of the treatment for 78 for the 79 patients (the error occurred on a difficult patient with a high body mass index). In comparison, using the currently available technology the in-theatre clinician (the radiographer) provided a treatment score CTS1 which correctly predicted the outcome of only 61 of the 79 therapies. In particular the passive acoustic device correctly predicted 18 of the 19 treatments that were successful (i.e. 94.7 sensitivity), whilst the current technology enabled the in-theatre radiographer to predict only 7 of the 19 successful treatments (i.e. 36.8 sensitivity). The real-time capabilities of the device were used in a preliminary examination of the effect of ventilation.

Do Urinary Cystine Parameters Predict Clinical Stone Activity?

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, Justin I; Antonelli, Jodi A; Canvasser, Noah E; Morgan, Monica S C; Mollengarden, Daniel; Best, Sara; Pearle, Margaret S

2018-02-01

An accurate urinary predictor of stone recurrence would be clinically advantageous for patients with cystinuria. A proprietary assay (Litholink, Chicago, Illinois) measures cystine capacity as a potentially more reliable estimate of stone forming propensity. The recommended capacity level to prevent stone formation, which is greater than 150 mg/l, has not been directly correlated with clinical stone activity. We investigated the relationship between urinary cystine parameters and clinical stone activity. We prospectively followed 48 patients with cystinuria using 24-hour urine collections and serial imaging, and recorded stone activity. We compared cystine urinary parameters at times of stone activity with those obtained during periods of stone quiescence. We then performed correlation and ROC analysis to evaluate the performance of cystine parameters to predict stone activity. During a median followup of 70.6 months (range 2.2 to 274.6) 85 stone events occurred which could be linked to a recent urine collection. Cystine capacity was significantly greater for quiescent urine than for stone event urine (mean ± SD 48 ± 107 vs -38 ± 163 mg/l, p stone activity (r = -0.29, p r = -0.88, p r = -0.87, p stone quiescence. Decreasing the cutoff to 90 mg/l or greater improved sensitivity to 25.2% while maintaining specificity at 90.9%. Our results suggest that the target for capacity should be lower than previously advised. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rule reversal: Ecogeographical patterns of body size variation in the common treeshrew (Mammalia, Scandentia)

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Sargis, Eric J.; Millien, Virginie; Woodman, Neal; Olson, Link E.

2018-01-01

There are a number of ecogeographical “rules” that describe patterns of geographical variation among organisms. The island rule predicts that populations of larger mammals on islands evolve smaller mean body size than their mainland counterparts, whereas smaller‐bodied mammals evolve larger size. Bergmann's rule predicts that populations of a species in colder climates (generally at higher latitudes) have larger mean body sizes than conspecifics in warmer climates (at lower latitudes). These two rules are rarely tested together and neither has been rigorously tested in treeshrews, a clade of small‐bodied mammals in their own order (Scandentia) broadly distributed in mainland Southeast Asia and on islands throughout much of the Sunda Shelf. The common treeshrew, Tupaia glis, is an excellent candidate for study and was used to test these two rules simultaneously for the first time in treeshrews. This species is distributed on the Malay Peninsula and several offshore islands east, west, and south of the mainland. Using craniodental dimensions as a proxy for body size, we investigated how island size, distance from the mainland, and maximum sea depth between the mainland and the islands relate to body size of 13 insular T. glis populations while also controlling for latitude and correlation among variables. We found a strong negative effect of latitude on body size in the common treeshrew, indicating the inverse of Bergmann's rule. We did not detect any overall difference in body size between the island and mainland populations. However, there was an effect of island area and maximum sea depth on body size among island populations. Although there is a strong latitudinal effect on body size, neither Bergmann's rule nor the island rule applies to the common treeshrew. The results of our analyses demonstrate the necessity of assessing multiple variables simultaneously in studies of ecogeographical rules.

Prediction of clinical response based on pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models of 5-hydroxytryptamine reuptake inhibitors in mice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreilgaard, Mads; Smith, D. G.; Brennum, L. T.

2008-01-01

Bridging the gap between preclinical research and clinical trials is vital for drug development. Predicting clinically relevant steady-state drug concentrations (Css) in serum from preclinical animal models may facilitate this transition. Here we used a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK...

Singlet axial constant from QCD sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belitskij, A.V.; Teryaev, O.V.

1995-01-01

We analyze the singlet axial form factor of the proton for small momentum transferred in the framework of QCD sum rules using the interpolating nucleon current which explicitly accounts for the gluonic degrees of freedom. As the result we come to the quantitative prediction of the singlet axial constant. It is shown that the bilocal power corrections play the most important role in the analysis. 21 refs., 3 figs

A core competency-based objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) can predict future resident performance.

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Wallenstein, Joshua; Heron, Sheryl; Santen, Sally; Shayne, Philip; Ander, Douglas

2010-10-01

This study evaluated the ability of an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) administered in the first month of residency to predict future resident performance in the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) core competencies. Eighteen Postgraduate Year 1 (PGY-1) residents completed a five-station OSCE in the first month of postgraduate training. Performance was graded in each of the ACGME core competencies. At the end of 18 months of training, faculty evaluations of resident performance in the emergency department (ED) were used to calculate a cumulative clinical evaluation score for each core competency. The correlations between OSCE scores and clinical evaluation scores at 18 months were assessed on an overall level and in each core competency. There was a statistically significant correlation between overall OSCE scores and overall clinical evaluation scores (R = 0.48, p competencies of patient care (R = 0.49, p competencies. An early-residency OSCE has the ability to predict future postgraduate performance on a global level and in specific core competencies. Used appropriately, such information can be a valuable tool for program directors in monitoring residents' progress and providing more tailored guidance. © 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Clinical responses to ERK inhibition in BRAFV600E-mutant colorectal cancer predicted using a computational model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirouac, Daniel C; Schaefer, Gabriele; Chan, Jocelyn; Merchant, Mark; Orr, Christine; Huang, Shih-Min A; Moffat, John; Liu, Lichuan; Gadkar, Kapil; Ramanujan, Saroja

2017-01-01

Approximately 10% of colorectal cancers harbor BRAF V600E mutations, which constitutively activate the MAPK signaling pathway. We sought to determine whether ERK inhibitor (GDC-0994)-containing regimens may be of clinical benefit to these patients based on data from in vitro (cell line) and in vivo (cell- and patient-derived xenograft) studies of cetuximab (EGFR), vemurafenib (BRAF), cobimetinib (MEK), and GDC-0994 (ERK) combinations. Preclinical data was used to develop a mechanism-based computational model linking cell surface receptor (EGFR) activation, the MAPK signaling pathway, and tumor growth. Clinical predictions of anti-tumor activity were enabled by the use of tumor response data from three Phase 1 clinical trials testing combinations of EGFR, BRAF, and MEK inhibitors. Simulated responses to GDC-0994 monotherapy (overall response rate = 17%) accurately predicted results from a Phase 1 clinical trial regarding the number of responding patients (2/18) and the distribution of tumor size changes ("waterfall plot"). Prospective simulations were then used to evaluate potential drug combinations and predictive biomarkers for increasing responsiveness to MEK/ERK inhibitors in these patients.

Personality and Defense Styles: Clinical Specificities and Predictive Factors of Alcohol Use Disorder in Women.

Science.gov (United States)

Ribadier, Aurélien; Dorard, Géraldine; Varescon, Isabelle

2016-01-01

This study investigated personality traits and defense styles in order to determine clinical specificities and predictive factors of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in women. A female sample, composed of AUD outpatients (n = 48) and a control group (n = 50), completed a sociodemographic self-report and questionnaires assessing personality traits (BFI), defense mechanisms and defense styles (DSQ-40). Comparative and correlational analyses, as well as univariate and multivariate logistic regressions, were performed. AUD women presented with higher neuroticism and lower extraversion and conscientiousness. They used less mature and more neurotic and immature defense styles than the control group. Concerning personality traits, high neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were predictive of AUD, as well as low mature, high neurotic, and immature defense styles. Including personality traits and defense styles in a logistic model, high neuroticism was the only AUD predictive factor. AUD women presented clinical specificities and predictive factors in personality traits and defense styles that must be taken into account in AUD studies. Implications for specific treatment for women are discussed.

An oracle: antituberculosis pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics, clinical correlation, and clinical trial simulations to predict the future.

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Pasipanodya, Jotam; Gumbo, Tawanda

2011-01-01

Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

Adaptive Outlier-tolerant Exponential Smoothing Prediction Algorithms with Applications to Predict the Temperature in Spacecraft

OpenAIRE

Hu Shaolin; Zhang Wei; Li Ye; Fan Shunxi

2011-01-01

The exponential smoothing prediction algorithm is widely used in spaceflight control and in process monitoring as well as in economical prediction. There are two key conundrums which are open: one is about the selective rule of the parameter in the exponential smoothing prediction, and the other is how to improve the bad influence of outliers on prediction. In this paper a new practical outlier-tolerant algorithm is built to select adaptively proper parameter, and the exponential smoothing pr...

Integrating usability testing and think-aloud protocol analysis with "near-live" clinical simulations in evaluating clinical decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Alice C; Kannry, Joseph L; Kushniruk, Andre; Chrimes, Dillon; McGinn, Thomas G; Edonyabo, Daniel; Mann, Devin M

2012-11-01

Usability evaluations can improve the usability and workflow integration of clinical decision support (CDS). Traditional usability testing using scripted scenarios with think-aloud protocol analysis provide a useful but incomplete assessment of how new CDS tools interact with users and clinical workflow. "Near-live" clinical simulations are a newer usability evaluation tool that more closely mimics clinical workflow and that allows for a complementary evaluation of CDS usability as well as impact on workflow. This study employed two phases of testing a new CDS tool that embedded clinical prediction rules (an evidence-based medicine tool) into primary care workflow within a commercial electronic health record. Phase I applied usability testing involving "think-aloud" protocol analysis of 8 primary care providers encountering several scripted clinical scenarios. Phase II used "near-live" clinical simulations of 8 providers interacting with video clips of standardized trained patient actors enacting the clinical scenario. In both phases, all sessions were audiotaped and had screen-capture software activated for onscreen recordings. Transcripts were coded using qualitative analysis methods. In Phase I, the impact of the CDS on navigation and workflow were associated with the largest volume of negative comments (accounting for over 90% of user raised issues) while the overall usability and the content of the CDS were associated with the most positive comments. However, usability had a positive-to-negative comment ratio of only 0.93 reflecting mixed perceptions about the usability of the CDS. In Phase II, the duration of encounters with simulated patients was approximately 12 min with 71% of the clinical prediction rules being activated after half of the visit had already elapsed. Upon activation, providers accepted the CDS tool pathway 82% of times offered and completed all of its elements in 53% of all simulation cases. Only 12.2% of encounter time was spent using the

Development, external validation and clinical usefulness of a practical prediction model for radiation-induced dysphagia in lung cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dehing-Oberije, Cary; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Petit, Steven; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; Vandecasteele, Katrien; De Neve, Wilfried; Dingemans, Anne Marie C.; El Naqa, Issam; Deasy, Joseph; Bradley, Jeff; Huang, Ellen; Lambin, Philippe

2010-01-01

Introduction: Acute dysphagia is a distressing dose-limiting toxicity occurring frequently during concurrent chemo-radiation or high-dose radiotherapy for lung cancer. It can lead to treatment interruptions and thus jeopardize survival. Although a number of predictive factors have been identified, it is still not clear how these could offer assistance for treatment decision making in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we have developed and validated a nomogram to predict this side-effect. In addition, clinical usefulness was assessed by comparing model predictions to physicians' predictions. Materials and methods: Clinical data from 469 inoperable lung cancer patients, treated with curative intent, were collected prospectively. A prediction model for acute radiation-induced dysphagia was developed. Model performance was evaluated by the c-statistic and assessed using bootstrapping as well as two external datasets. In addition, a prospective study was conducted comparing model to physicians' predictions in 138 patients. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of age, gender, WHO performance status, mean esophageal dose (MED), maximum esophageal dose (MAXED) and overall treatment time (OTT). The c-statistic, assessed by bootstrapping, was 0.77. External validation yielded an AUC of 0.94 on the Ghent data and 0.77 on the Washington University St. Louis data for dysphagia ≥ grade 3. Comparing model predictions to the physicians' predictions resulted in an AUC of 0.75 versus 0.53, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed model performed well was successfully validated and demonstrated the ability to predict acute severe dysphagia remarkably better than the physicians. Therefore, this model could be used in clinical practice to identify patients at high or low risk.

Thoracic injury rule out criteria and NEXUS chest in predicting the risk of traumatic intra-thoracic injuries: A diagnostic accuracy study.

Science.gov (United States)

Safari, Saeed; Radfar, Fatemeh; Baratloo, Alireza

2018-05-01

This study aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of NEXUS chest and Thoracic Injury Rule out criteria (TIRC) models in predicting the risk of intra-thoracic injuries following blunt multiple trauma. In this diagnostic accuracy study, using the 2 mentioned models, blunt multiple trauma patients over the age of 15 years presenting to emergency department were screened regarding the presence of intra-thoracic injuries that are detectable via chest x-ray and screening performance characteristics of the models were compared. In this study, 3118 patients with the mean (SD) age of 37.4 (16.9) years were studied (57.4% male). Based on TIRC and NEXUS chest, respectively, 1340 (43%) and 1417 (45.4%) patients were deemed in need of radiography performance. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of TIRC were 98.95%, 62.70%, 21.19% and 99.83%. These values were 98.61%, 59.94%, 19.97% and 99.76%, for NEXUS chest, respectively. Accuracy of TIRC and NEXUS chest models were 66.04 (95% CI: 64.34-67.70) and 63.50 (95% CI: 61.78-65.19), respectively. TIRC and NEXUS chest models have proper and similar sensitivity in prediction of blunt traumatic intra-thoracic injuries that are detectable via chest x-ray. However, TIRC had a significantly higher specificity in this regard. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.