Sample records for climate variability niche
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Climatic niche conservatism and the evolutionary dynamics in species range boundaries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olalla-Tárraga1, Miguel Á.; McInnes, Linsey; Bini, Luis M.
2011-01-01
Aim Comparative evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism – the tendency for lineages to retain their ancestral niches over long time scales – has so far been mixed, depending on spatial and taxonomic scale. We quantify and compare conservatism in the climatic factors defining range boundaries...... conservatism, as expected from their greater physiological sensitivity and lower dispersal abilities. Location Global; continental land masses excluding Antarctica. Methods We used nearly complete global distributional databases to estimate the climatic niche conservatism in extant continental mammals...... and amphibians. We characterized the climatic niche of each species by using a suite of variables and separately investigate conservatism in each variable using both taxonomic and phylogenetic approaches. Finally, we explored the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns in recent climatic niche evolution...
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Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos
2012-08-01
Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.
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Jezkova, Tereza
2016-01-01
Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748
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Microhabitat and Climatic Niche Change Explain Patterns of Diversification among Frog Families.
Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J
2017-07-01
A major goal of ecology and evolutionary biology is to explain patterns of species richness among clades. Differences in rates of net diversification (speciation minus extinction over time) may often explain these patterns, but the factors that drive variation in diversification rates remain uncertain. Three important candidates are climatic niche position (e.g., whether clades are primarily temperate or tropical), rates of climatic niche change among species within clades, and microhabitat (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, arboreal). The first two factors have been tested separately in several studies, but the relative importance of all three is largely unknown. Here we explore the correlates of diversification among families of frogs, which collectively represent ∼88% of amphibian species. We assemble and analyze data on phylogeny, climate, and microhabitat for thousands of species. We find that the best-fitting phylogenetic multiple regression model includes all three types of variables: microhabitat, rates of climatic niche change, and climatic niche position. This model explains 67% of the variation in diversification rates among frog families, with arboreal microhabitat explaining ∼31%, niche rates ∼25%, and climatic niche position ∼11%. Surprisingly, we show that microhabitat can have a much stronger influence on diversification than climatic niche position or rates of climatic niche change.
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The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.
Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa
2017-07-12
Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Evolution of climatic niche specialization: a phylogenetic analysis in amphibians.
Bonetti, Maria Fernanda; Wiens, John J
2014-11-22
The evolution of climatic niche specialization has important implications for many topics in ecology, evolution and conservation. The climatic niche reflects the set of temperature and precipitation conditions where a species can occur. Thus, specialization to a limited set of climatic conditions can be important for understanding patterns of biogeography, species richness, community structure, allopatric speciation, spread of invasive species and responses to climate change. Nevertheless, the factors that determine climatic niche width (level of specialization) remain poorly explored. Here, we test whether species that occur in more extreme climates are more highly specialized for those conditions, and whether there are trade-offs between niche widths on different climatic niche axes (e.g. do species that tolerate a broad range of temperatures tolerate only a limited range of precipitation regimes?). We test these hypotheses in amphibians, using phylogenetic comparative methods and global-scale datasets, including 2712 species with both climatic and phylogenetic data. Our results do not support either hypothesis. Rather than finding narrower niches in more extreme environments, niches tend to be narrower on one end of a climatic gradient but wider on the other. We also find that temperature and precipitation niche breadths are positively related, rather than showing trade-offs. Finally, our results suggest that most amphibian species occur in relatively warm and dry environments and have relatively narrow climatic niche widths on both of these axes. Thus, they may be especially imperilled by anthropogenic climate change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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Lv, Xue; Xia, Lin; Ge, Deyan; Wu, Yongjie; Yang, Qisen
2016-05-01
Climatic niche conservatism shapes patterns of diversity in many taxonomic groups, while ecological opportunity (EO) can trigger rapid speciation that is less constrained by the amount of time a lineage has occupied a given habitat. These two processes are well studied, but limited research has considered their joint and relative roles in shaping diversity patterns. We characterized climatic and biogeographic variables for 102 species of arvicoline rodents (Arvicolinae, Cricetidae), testing the effects of climatic niche conservatism and EO on arvicoline diversification as lineages transitioned between biogeographic regions. We found that the amount of time a lineage has occupied a precipitation niche is positively correlated with diversity along a precipitation gradient, suggesting climatic niche conservatism. In contrast, shift in diversification rate explained diversity patterns along a temperature gradient. Our results suggest that an indirect relationship exists between temperature and diversification that is associated with EO as arvicoline rodents colonized warm Palearctic environments. Climatic niche conservatism alone did not fully explain diversity patterns under density-dependence, highlighting the additional importance of EO-related processes in promoting the explosive radiation in arvicoline rodents and shaping diversity pattern among biogeographic regions and along climatic gradients. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Widespread correlations between climatic niche evolution and species diversification in birds.
Cooney, Christopher R; Seddon, Nathalie; Tobias, Joseph A
2016-07-01
The adaptability of species' climatic niches can influence the dynamics of colonization and gene flow across climatic gradients, potentially increasing the likelihood of speciation or reducing extinction in the face of environmental change. However, previous comparative studies have tested these ideas using geographically, taxonomically and ecologically restricted samples, yielding mixed results, and thus the processes linking climatic niche evolution with diversification remain poorly understood. Focusing on birds, the largest and most widespread class of terrestrial vertebrates, we test whether variation in species diversification among clades is correlated with rates of climatic niche evolution and the extent to which these patterns are modified by underlying gradients in biogeography and species' ecology. We quantified climatic niches, latitudinal distribution and ecological traits for 7657 (˜75%) bird species based on geographical range polygons and then used Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to test whether niche evolution was related to species richness and rates of diversification across genus- and family-level clades. We found that the rate of climatic niche evolution has a positive linear relationship with both species richness and diversification rate at two different taxonomic levels (genus and family). Furthermore, this positive association between labile climatic niches and diversification was detected regardless of variation in clade latitude or key ecological traits. Our findings suggest either that rapid adaptation to unoccupied areas of climatic niche space promotes avian diversification, or that diversification promotes adaptation. Either way, we propose that climatic niche evolution is a fundamental process regulating the link between climate and biodiversity at global scales, irrespective of the geographical and ecological context of speciation and extinction. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.
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Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.
2018-01-01
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results
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Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D
2018-03-14
Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sanín, María José; Kissling, W. Daniel; Bacon, Christine D.
2016-01-01
The tropical Andes are a biodiversity hotspot, partly due to their rich and complex floristic composition. A fundamental question regarding this outstanding biodiversity is what role the Andean orogeny has played in species diversification. Ceroxylon is a genus of endemic Andean palms that stands...... gradients. Ancestral areas were reconstructed under a model allowing for founder-event speciation and climatic niches were inferred from climatic variables at present-day occurrences of all species. Niche evolution in a phylogenetic framework was evaluated by testing differences between the climatic niches...... of clades. Our analyses identified four main clades, with a general pattern of diversification through geographical colonization from south to north after the Pliocene uplift of the northern Andes. Adaptation to low temperatures was conserved at the generic level, with climatic niche differentiation among...
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Alexander, Jake M
2013-09-22
A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.
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Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models
Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.
2016-01-01
Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of
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Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on the long run. This subjects agro ecological niches to high sensitivity and exposure thus reducing the adaptive capacity. Vulnerability results and the cocoa farming households, the major contributors to the ...
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Phylogenetic signals in the climatic niches of the world's amphibians
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hof, Christian; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B.
2010-01-01
amphibian orders and across biogeographical regions. To our knowledge, this is the first study providing a comprehensive analysis of the phylogenetic signal in species climatic niches for an entire clade across the world. Even though our results do not provide a strong test of the niche conservatism......The question of whether closely related species share similar ecological requirements has attracted increasing attention, because of its importance for understanding global diversity gradients and the impacts of climate change on species distributions. In fact, the assumption that related species...... are also ecologically similar has often been made, although the prevalence of such a phylogenetic signal in ecological niches remains heavily debated. Here, we provide a global analysis of phylogenetic niche relatedness for the world's amphibians. In particular, we assess which proportion of the variance...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xian-Ge Hu
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.
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Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, Elżbieta; Konowalik, Kamil
2017-01-01
In the present study we investigate the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) within the American species of angraecoid orchids ( Campylocentrum and Dendrophylax ) and their closest relatives in the Old World ( Angraecum ) using ecological niche modelling (ENM). The predicted niche occupancy profiles were matched with the outcomes of previous phylogenetic studies to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within the orchid group studied and evaluate the role of niche differentiation in the speciation of Angraecinae. No correlation between preferred niches and taxonomic relationships within the orchid group studied was revealed. The climatic suitability of the majority of the species overlapped each other, either fully or partially. This pattern is also present in the species of other orchid genera. Our research confirms a significant level of PNC in Orchidaceae, even within taxa exhibiting a transatlantic disjunction. The analysis of the evolution of climatic suitability indicated that the adaptation to various climatic conditions is not a factor that has driven speciation within orchids studied.
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Probabilistic and spatially variable niches inferred from demography
Jeffrey M. Diez; Itamar Giladi; Robert Warren; H. Ronald. Pulliam
2014-01-01
Summary 1. Mismatches between species distributions and habitat suitability are predicted by niche theory and have important implications for forecasting how species may respond to environmental changes. Quantifying these mismatches is challenging, however, due to the high dimensionality of species niches and the large spatial and temporal variability in population...
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Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.
2018-04-01
Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.
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Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wasof, Safaa; Lenoir, Jonathan; Aarrestad, Per Arild
2015-01-01
separated for thousands of years. Location: European Alps and Fennoscandia. Methods: Of the studied pool of 888 terrestrial vascular plant species occurring in both the Alps and Fennoscandia, we used two complementary approaches to test and quantify climatic-niche shifts for 31 species having strictly......Aim: Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the degree of niche conservatism between distant populations of native alpine plant species that have been...... to be largely valid for arctic-alpine plants....
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody Steven; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2016-01-01
and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic edemism, patterns of unique lineages in restricted ranges is also related to glacial...... to recolonization to quantify glacial-interglacial climate variability. We found: i) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages towards lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. ii) Long-term climate stability...
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Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio
2018-01-01
The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea G. Castillo
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe, to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe. Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution
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Phylogenetic constraints in key functional traits behind species' climate niches
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kellermann, Vanessa; Loeschcke, Volker; Hoffmann, Ary A
2012-01-01
Species distributions are often constrained by climatic tolerances that are ultimately determined by evolutionary history and/or adaptive capacity, but these factors have rarely been partitioned. Here, we experimentally determined two key climatic niche traits (desiccation and cold resistance) fo...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William B. Sutton
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.
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Peña-Gómez, Francisco T; Guerrero, Pablo C; Bizama, Gustavo; Duarte, Milén; Bustamante, Ramiro O
2014-01-01
Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche
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Pitteloud, Camille; Arrigo, Nils; Suchan, Tomasz; Mastretta-Yanes, Alicia; Vila, Roger; Dincă, Vlad; Hernández-Roldán, Juan; Brockmann, Ernst; Chittaro, Yannick; Kleckova, Irena; Fumagalli, Luca; Buerki, Sven; Pellissier, Loïc; Alvarez, Nadir
2017-04-12
Understanding how speciation relates to ecological divergence has long fascinated biologists. It is assumed that ecological divergence is essential to sympatric speciation, as a mechanism to avoid competition and eventually lead to reproductive isolation, while divergence in allopatry is not necessarily associated with niche differentiation. The impact of the spatial context of divergence on the evolutionary rates of abiotic dimensions of the ecological niche has rarely been explored for an entire clade. Here, we compare the magnitude of climatic niche shifts between sympatric versus allopatric divergence of lineages in butterflies. By combining next-generation sequencing, parametric biogeography and ecological niche analyses applied to a genus-wide phylogeny of Palaearctic Pyrgus butterflies, we compare evolutionary rates along eight climatic dimensions across sister lineages that diverged in large-scale sympatry versus allopatry. In order to examine the possible effects of the spatial scale at which sympatry is defined, we considered three sets of biogeographic assignments, ranging from narrow to broad definition. Our findings suggest higher rates of niche evolution along all climatic dimensions for sister lineages that diverge in sympatry, when using a narrow delineation of biogeographic areas. This result contrasts with significantly lower rates of climatic niche evolution found in cases of allopatric speciation, despite the biogeographic regions defined here being characterized by significantly different climates. Higher rates in allopatry are retrieved when biogeographic areas are too widely defined-in such a case allopatric events may be recorded as sympatric. Our results reveal the macro-evolutionary significance of abiotic niche differentiation involved in speciation processes within biogeographic regions, and illustrate the importance of the spatial scale chosen to define areas when applying parametric biogeographic analyses. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alberto Muñoz
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural
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Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.
2016-01-01
Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID
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Alahuhta, Janne; Virtala, Antti; Hjort, Jan; Ecke, Frauke; Johnson, Lucinda B; Sass, Laura; Heino, Jani
2017-05-01
Different species' niche breadths in relation to ecological gradients are infrequently examined within the same study and, moreover, species niche breadths have rarely been averaged to account for variation in entire ecological communities. We investigated how average environmental niche breadths (climate, water quality and climate-water quality niches) in aquatic macrophyte communities are related to ecological gradients (latitude, longitude, altitude, species richness and lake area) among four distinct regions (Finland, Sweden and US states of Minnesota and Wisconsin) on two continents. We found that correlations between the three different measures of average niche breadths and ecological gradients varied considerably among the study regions, with average climate and average water quality niche breadth models often showing opposite trends. However, consistent patterns were also found, such as widening of average climate niche breadths and narrowing of average water quality niche breadths of aquatic macrophytes along increasing latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. This result suggests that macrophyte species are generalists in relation to temperature variations at higher latitudes and altitudes, whereas species in southern, lowland lakes are more specialised. In contrast, aquatic macrophytes growing in more southern nutrient-rich lakes were generalists in relation to water quality, while specialist species are adapted to low-productivity conditions and are found in highland lakes. Our results emphasise that species niche breadths should not be studied using only coarse-scale data of species distributions and corresponding environmental conditions, but that investigations on different kinds of niche breadths (e.g., climate vs. local niches) also require finer resolution data at broad spatial extents.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William B Monahan
Full Text Available The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus. Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004 further shows that: (i existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced
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Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.
Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G
2017-06-01
The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.
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Thermal barriers constrain microbial elevational range size via climate variability.
Wang, Jianjun; Soininen, Janne
2017-08-01
Range size is invariably limited and understanding range size variation is an important objective in ecology. However, microbial range size across geographical gradients remains understudied, especially on mountainsides. Here, the patterns of range size of stream microbes (i.e., bacteria and diatoms) and macroorganisms (i.e., macroinvertebrates) along elevational gradients in Asia and Europe were examined. In bacteria, elevational range size showed non-significant phylogenetic signals. In all taxa, there was a positive relationship between niche breadth and species elevational range size, driven by local environmental and climatic variables. No taxa followed the elevational Rapoport's rule. Climate variability explained the most variation in microbial mean elevational range size, whereas local environmental variables were more important for macroinvertebrates. Seasonal and annual climate variation showed negative effects, while daily climate variation had positive effects on community mean elevational range size for all taxa. The negative correlation between range size and species richness suggests that understanding the drivers of range is key for revealing the processes underlying diversity. The results advance the understanding of microbial species thermal barriers by revealing the importance of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight that aquatic and terrestrial biota may differ in their response to short- and long-term climate variability. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Amendolia, Sara; Gaiarsa, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Genchi, Claudio; Bandi, Claudio; Otranto, Domenico; Urbanelli, Sandra
2013-09-19
Global climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of "maximum entropy", as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used. In both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species. Our models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Moo-Llanes
Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.
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Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.
2013-01-01
Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478
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Ecological niche transferability using invasive species as a case study.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miguel Fernández
Full Text Available Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species' native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species' native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger's I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species' dynamics in the invaded range.
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Evans, Margaret E K; Smith, Stephen A; Flynn, Rachel S; Donoghue, Michael J
2009-02-01
We integrate climatic niche models and dated phylogenies to characterize the evolution of climatic niches in Oenothera sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae), and from that we make inferences on diversification in relation to climate. The evolution of climatic tolerances in Anogra + Kleinia has been heterogeneous, across phylogenetic groups and across different dimensions of climate. All the extant taxa occur in semiarid to arid conditions (annual precipitation of 10.1-49.1 cm and high temperatures in the warmest month of 28.5 degrees-40.1 degrees C), but there is striking variation among taxa in their climatic tolerances, especially temperature (minimum temperatures in the coldest month of -14.0 degrees to 5.3 degrees C) and summer versus winter precipitation (precipitation in the warmest quarter of 0.6-19.4 cm). Climatic disparity is especially pronounced in two subclades (californica, deltoides) that radiated in the southwestern United States and California, apparently including both divergent and convergent evolution of climatic tolerances. This niche evolution is remarkable, given the probable timescale of the radiation (approximately 1 million years). We suggest that the spatiotemporal climatic heterogeneity of western North America has served as a driver of diversification. Our data are also consistent with Axelrod's hypothesis that the spread of arid conditions in western North America stimulated diversification of arid-adapted lineages.
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Climate variability and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rind, D.
1990-01-01
Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century
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Climate variability and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rind, D.
1991-01-01
Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs
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Ma, Ziyu; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2016-05-01
How fast does biodiversity respond to climate change? The relationship of past and current climate with phylogenetic assemblage structure helps us to understand this question. Studies of angiosperm tree diversity in North America have already suggested effects of current water-energy balance and tropical niche conservatism. However, the role of glacial-interglacial climate variability remains to be determined, and little is known about any of these relationships for gymnosperms. Moreover, phylogenetic endemism, the concentration of unique lineages in restricted ranges, may also be related to glacial-interglacial climate variability and needs more attention. We used a refined phylogeny of both angiosperms and gymnosperms to map phylogenetic diversity, clustering and endemism of North American trees in 100-km grid cells, and climate change velocity since Last Glacial Maximum together with postglacial accessibility to recolonization to quantify glacial-interglacial climate variability. We found: (1) Current climate is the dominant factor explaining the overall patterns, with more clustered angiosperm assemblages toward lower temperature, consistent with tropical niche conservatism. (2) Long-term climate stability is associated with higher angiosperm endemism, while higher postglacial accessibility is linked to to more phylogenetic clustering and endemism in gymnosperms. (3) Factors linked to glacial-interglacial climate change have stronger effects on gymnosperms than on angiosperms. These results suggest that paleoclimate legacies supplement current climate in shaping phylogenetic patterns in North American trees, and especially so for gymnosperms.
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A Short Guide to the Climatic Variables of the Last Glacial Maximum for Biogeographers.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sara Varela
Full Text Available Ecological niche models are widely used for mapping the distribution of species during the last glacial maximum (LGM. Although the selection of the variables and General Circulation Models (GCMs used for constructing those maps determine the model predictions, we still lack a discussion about which variables and which GCM should be included in the analysis and why. Here, we analyzed the climatic predictions for the LGM of 9 different GCMs in order to help biogeographers to select their GCMs and climatic layers for mapping the species ranges in the LGM. We 1 map the discrepancies between the climatic predictions of the nine GCMs available for the LGM, 2 analyze the similarities and differences between the GCMs and group them to help researchers choose the appropriate GCMs for calibrating and projecting their ecological niche models (ENM during the LGM, and 3 quantify the agreement of the predictions for each bioclimatic variable to help researchers avoid the environmental variables with a poor consensus between models. Our results indicate that, in absolute values, GCMs have a strong disagreement in their temperature predictions for temperate areas, while the uncertainties for the precipitation variables are in the tropics. In spite of the discrepancies between model predictions, temperature variables (BIO1-BIO11 are highly correlated between models. Precipitation variables (BIO12-BIO19 show no correlation between models, and specifically, BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month and BIO15 (Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation show the highest level of discrepancy between GCMs. Following our results, we strongly recommend the use of different GCMs for constructing or projecting ENMs, particularly when predicting the distribution of species that inhabit the tropics and the temperate areas of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, because climatic predictions for those areas vary greatly among GCMs. We also recommend the exclusion of
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Livshultz, Tatyana; Mead, Jerry V; Goyder, David J; Brannin, Michelle
2011-12-01
Climate change that increases mortality of plants and pollinators can create mate-finding Allee effects and thus act as a strong selective force on floral morphology. Milkweeds (Secamonoideae and Asclepiadoideae; Apocynaceae) are typically small plants of seasonally dry habitats, with pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency. Their sister group (tribe Baisseeae and Dewevrella) is mostly comprised of giant lianas of African rainforests, with pollen in monads. Comparison of the two groups motivated a new hypothesis: milkweeds evolved in the context of African aridification and the shifting of rainforest to dry forest. Pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency may have been adaptations that alleviated mate-finding Allee effects generated by high mortality during droughts. We formally tested whether milkweeds have a drier climate niche by comparing milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae) and the milkweed sister group in continental Africa. We georeferenced specimens of the milkweed sister group and Secamonoideae in continental Africa, extracted 19 climatic variables from the Worldclim model, conducted factor analysis to identify correlated suites of variables, and compared the frequency distributions of the two lineages relative to each factor. The distributions of Secamonoideae and the milkweed sister group differed significantly relative to four factors, each correlated with a distinct suite of climate parameters: (1) air temperature (Secamonoideae: cooler), (2) total and (3) summer precipitation (Secamonoideae: drier), and (4) temperature seasonality and isothermality (Secamonoideae: more seasonal and less isothermal). Secamonoideae in continental Africa inhabit drier, cooler sites than do the milkweed sister group, consistent with a shift from rainforests to dry forests in a cooling climate.
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Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species
Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.
2009-01-01
Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.
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Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish; Javier Lopez-Upton; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; J. Bradley St Clair; Laura P. Leites; Dennis G. Joyce
2014-01-01
The Random Forests classification algorithm was used to predict the occurrence of the realized climate niche for two sub-specific varieties of Pinus ponderosa and three varieties of Pseudotsuga menziesii from presence-absence data in forest inventory ground plots. Analyses were based on ca. 271,000 observations for P. ponderosa and ca. 426,000 observations for P....
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Shinneman, Douglas J; Means, Robert E; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D
2016-01-01
Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Douglas J Shinneman
Full Text Available Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM, ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated
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Shinneman, Douglas; Means, Robert E.; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.
2016-01-01
Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific (P. p. var. ponderosa) and Rocky Mountain (P. p. var. scopulorum) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P. p. vars. ponderosa and scopulorum, respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirko Di Febbraro
Full Text Available Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM, a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM, a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM. Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel's niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species' climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.
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The Fluctuation Niche in Plants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jaume Terradas
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and ecophysiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.
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The Fluctuation Niche in Plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Terradas, J.; Penuelas, J.; Lloret, F.; Penuelas, J.
2009-01-01
Classical approaches to niche in coexisting plants have undervalued temporal fluctuations. We propose that fluctuation niche is an important dimension of the total niche and interacts with habitat and life-history niches to provide a better understanding of the multidimensional niche space where ecological interactions occur. To scale a fluctuation niche, it is necessary to relate environmental constrictions or species performance not only to the absolute values of the usual environmental and eco physiological variables but also to their variances or other measures of variability. We use Mediterranean plant communities as examples, because they present characteristic large seasonal and inter annual fluctuations in water and nutrient availabilities, along an episodic-constant gradient, and because the plant responses include a number of syndromes coupled to this gradient.
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Species are not most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or climatic niche.
Dallas, Tad; Decker, Robin R; Hastings, Alan
2017-12-01
The pervasive idea that species should be most abundant in the centre of their geographic range or centre of their climatic niche is a key assumption in many existing ecological hypotheses and has been declared a general macroecological rule. However, empirical support for decreasing population abundance with increasing distance from geographic range or climatic niche centre (distance-abundance relationships) remains fairly weak. We examine over 1400 bird, mammal, fish and tree species to provide a thorough test of distance-abundance relationships, and their associations with species traits and phylogenetic relationships. We failed to detect consistent distance-abundance relationships, and found no association between distance-abundance slope and species traits or phylogenetic relatedness. Together, our analyses suggest that distance-abundance relationships may be rare, difficult to detect, or are an oversimplification of the complex biogeographical forces that determine species spatial abundance patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Pitteloud, C.; Arrigo, N.; Suchan, T.; Mastretta-Yanes, A.; Vila, R.; Dincă, V.; Hernández-Roldán, J.; Brockmann, E.; Chittaro, Y.; Klečková, Irena; Fumagalli, L.; Buerki, S.; Pellissier, L.; Alvarez, N.
2017-01-01
Roč. 284, č. 1852 (2017), č. článku 20170208. ISSN 0962-8452 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : climatic niche * macro-evolutionary processes * parametric biogeography Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.940, year: 2016 http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/284/1852/20170208
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Niche evolution and diversification in a Neotropical radiation of birds (Aves: Furnariidae).
Seeholzer, Glenn F; Claramunt, Santiago; Brumfield, Robb T
2017-03-01
Rapid diversification may be caused by ecological adaptive radiation via niche divergence. In this model, speciation is coupled with niche divergence and lineage diversification is predicted to be correlated with rates of niche evolution. Studies of the role of niche evolution in diversification have generally focused on ecomorphological diversification but climatic-niche evolution may also be important. We tested these alternatives using a phylogeny of 298 species of ovenbirds (Aves: Furnariidae). We found that within Furnariidae, variation in species richness and diversification rates of subclades were best predicted by rate of climatic-niche evolution than ecomorphological evolution. Although both are clearly important, univariate regression and multivariate model averaging more consistently supported the climatic-niche as the best predictor of lineage diversification. Our study adds to the growing body of evidence, suggesting that climatic-niche divergence may be an important driver of rapid diversification in addition to ecomorphological evolution. However, this pattern may depend on the phylogenetic scale at which rate heterogeneity is examined. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hannah Slater
Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.
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FitzGerald, Alyssa M
2017-07-01
Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush ( Catharus bicknelli ) and Gray-cheeked Thrush ( C. mimimus ), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic-only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic-only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over-project thrush distributions compared to abiotic-only or biotic-only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir ( Abies balsamea ), whereas Gray-cheeked Thrush often co-occurs with black spruce ( Picea mariana ). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray-cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.
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Biogeographic ranges do not support niche theory in radiating Canary Island plant clades
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Steinbauer, Manuel; Field, Richard; Fernández-Palacios, José María
2016-01-01
in allopatry. Main conclusions: The expectations from niche conservatism were frequently not met; instead our results suggest considerable climatic niche lability. All significant differences in climatic niche differentiation were opposite to the predictions from competitive displacement. These forces may...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bruno M Carvalho
Full Text Available Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest. Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador
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Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M
2015-01-01
Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela
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McIntyre, Shannon; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Carvalho, Bruno M
2017-03-24
Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5). Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2). Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods. Our
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Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J
2014-01-01
The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802
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García-Navas, Vicente; Westerman, Michael
2018-05-28
The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
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Toward a Periodic Table of Niches, or Exploring the Lizard Niche Hypervolume.
Pianka, Eric R; Vitt, Laurie J; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Winemiller, Kirk O
2017-11-01
Widespread niche convergence suggests that species can be organized according to functional trait combinations to create a framework analogous to a periodic table. We compiled ecological data for lizards to examine patterns of global and regional niche diversification, and we used multivariate statistical approaches to develop the beginnings for a periodic table of niches. Data (50+ variables) for five major niche dimensions (habitat, diet, life history, metabolism, defense) were compiled for 134 species of lizards representing 24 of the 38 extant families. Principal coordinates analyses were performed on niche dimensional data sets, and species scores for the first three axes were used as input for a principal components analysis to ordinate species in continuous niche space and for a regression tree analysis to separate species into discrete niche categories. Three-dimensional models facilitate exploration of species positions in relation to major gradients within the niche hypervolume. The first gradient loads on body size, foraging mode, and clutch size. The second was influenced by metabolism and terrestrial versus arboreal microhabitat. The third was influenced by activity time, life history, and diet. Natural dichotomies are activity time, foraging mode, parity mode, and habitat. Regression tree analysis identified 103 cases of extreme niche conservatism within clades and 100 convergences between clades. Extending this approach to other taxa should lead to a wider understanding of niche evolution.
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Niche conservatism and the invasive potential of the wild boar.
Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Ribeiro, Bruno R; Hayward, Matt Warrington; Paglia, Adriano; Passamani, Marcelo; Loyola, Rafael
2017-09-01
Niche conservatism, i.e. the retention of a species' fundamental niche through evolutionary time, is cornerstone for biological invasion assessments. The fact that species tend to maintain their original climate niche allows predictive maps of invasion risk to anticipate potential invadable areas. Unravelling the mechanisms driving niche shifts can shed light on the management of invasive species. Here, we assessed niche shifts in one of the world's worst invasive species: the wild boar Sus scrofa. We also predicted potential invadable areas based on an ensemble of three ecological niche modelling methods, and evaluated the performance of models calibrated with native vs. pooled (native plus invaded) species records. By disentangling the drivers of change on the exotic wild boar population's niches, we found strong evidence for niche conservatism during biological invasion. Ecological niche models calibrated with both native and pooled range records predicted convergent areas. Also, observed niche shifts are mostly explained by niche unfilling, i.e. there are unoccupied areas in the exotic range where climate is analogous to the native range. Niche unfilling is expected as result of recent colonization and ongoing dispersal, and was potentially stronger for the Neotropics, where a recent wave of introductions for pig-farming and game-hunting has led to high wild boar population growth rates. The invasive potential of wild boar in the Neotropics is probably higher than in other regions, which has profound management implications if we are to prevent their invasion into species-rich areas, such as Amazonia, coupled with expansion of African swine fever and possibly great economic losses. Although the originally Eurasian-wide distribution suggests a pre-adaptation to a wide array of climates, the wild boar world-wide invasion does not exhibit evidence of niche evolution. The invasive potential of the wild boar therefore probably lies on the reproductive, dietary and
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Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.
Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E
2016-01-01
Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.
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Mammalian niche conservation through deep time.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Larisa R G DeSantis
Full Text Available Climate change alters species distributions, causing plants and animals to move north or to higher elevations with current warming. Bioclimatic models predict species distributions based on extant realized niches and assume niche conservation. Here, we evaluate if proxies for niches (i.e., range areas are conserved at the family level through deep time, from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. We analyze the occurrence of all mammalian families in the continental USA, calculating range area, percent range area occupied, range area rank, and range polygon centroids during each epoch. Percent range area occupied significantly increases from the Oligocene to the Miocene and again from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene; however, mammalian families maintain statistical concordance between rank orders across time. Families with greater taxonomic diversity occupy a greater percent of available range area during each epoch and net changes in taxonomic diversity are significantly positively related to changes in percent range area occupied from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. Furthermore, gains and losses in generic and species diversity are remarkably consistent with ~2.3 species gained per generic increase. Centroids demonstrate southeastern shifts from the Eocene through the Pleistocene that may correspond to major environmental events and/or climate changes during the Cenozoic. These results demonstrate range conservation at the family level and support the idea that niche conservation at higher taxonomic levels operates over deep time and may be controlled by life history traits. Furthermore, families containing megafauna and/or terminal Pleistocene extinction victims do not incur significantly greater declines in range area rank than families containing only smaller taxa and/or only survivors, from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. Collectively, these data evince the resilience of families to climate and/or environmental change in deep time, the absence of
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A first approach to calculate BIOCLIM variables and climate zones for Antarctica
Wagner, Monika; Trutschnig, Wolfgang; Bathke, Arne C.; Ruprecht, Ulrike
2018-02-01
For testing the hypothesis that macroclimatological factors determine the occurrence, biodiversity, and species specificity of both symbiotic partners of Antarctic lecideoid lichens, we present a first approach for the computation of the full set of 19 BIOCLIM variables, as available at http://www.worldclim.org/ for all regions of the world with exception of Antarctica. Annual mean temperature (Bio 1) and annual precipitation (Bio 12) were chosen to define climate zones of the Antarctic continent and adjacent islands as required for ecological niche modeling (ENM). The zones are based on data for the years 2009-2015 which was obtained from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) database of the Ohio State University. For both temperature and precipitation, two separate zonings were specified; temperature values were divided into 12 zones (named 1 to 12) and precipitation values into five (named A to E). By combining these two partitions, we defined climate zonings where each geographical point can be uniquely assigned to exactly one zone, which allows an immediate explicit interpretation. The soundness of the newly calculated climate zones was tested by comparison with already published data, which used only three zones defined on climate information from the literature. The newly defined climate zones result in a more precise assignment of species distribution to the single habitats. This study provides the basis for a more detailed continental-wide ENM using a comprehensive dataset of lichen specimens which are located within 21 different climate regions.
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Solar Variability and Planetary Climates
Calisesi, Y; Gray, L; Langen, J; Lockwood, M
2007-01-01
Variations in solar activity, as revealed by variations in the number of sunspots, have been observed since ancient times. To what extent changes in the solar output may affect planetary climates, though, remains today more than ever a subject of controversy. In 2000, the SSSI volume on Solar Variability and Climate reviewed the to-date understanding of the physics of solar variability and of the associated climate response. The present volume on Solar Variability and Planetary Climates provides an overview of recent advances in this field, with particular focus at the Earth's middle and lower atmosphere. The book structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005, the collection of invited workshop contributions and of complementary introductory papers synthesizing the current understanding in key research areas such as middle atmospheric processes, stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, tropospheric aerosols chemistry, solar storm influences, solar variability physics, and terrestri...
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Kleckova, I; Cesanek, M; Fric, Z; Pellissier, L
2015-11-01
Both geographical and ecological speciation interact during the evolution of a clade, but the relative contribution of these processes is rarely assessed for cold-dwelling biota. Here, we investigate the role of biogeography and the evolution of ecological traits on the diversification of the Holarctic arcto-alpine butterfly genus Oeneis (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae). We reconstructed the molecular phylogeny of the genus based on one mitochondrial (COI) and three nuclear (GAPDH, RpS5, wingless) genes. We inferred the biogeographical scenario and the ancestral state reconstructions of climatic and habitat requirements. Within the genus, we detected five main species groups corresponding to the taxonomic division and further paraphyletic position of Neominois (syn. n.). Next, we transferred O. aktashi from the hora to the polixenes species group on the bases of molecular relationships. We found that the genus originated in the dry grasslands of the mountains of Central Asia and dispersed over the Beringian Land Bridges to North America several times independently. Holarctic mountains, in particular the Asian Altai Mts. and Sayan Mts., host the oldest lineages and most of the species diversity. Arctic species are more recent, with Pliocene or Pleistocene origin. We detected a strong phylogenetic signal for the climatic niche, where one lineage diversified towards colder conditions. Altogether, our results indicate that both dispersal across geographical areas and occupation of distinct climatic niches promoted the diversification of the Oeneis genus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.
2006-01-01
Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions...... of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key...... role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge Luis Becerra López
Full Text Available Invasive alien species are one of most severe threats to biodiversity and natural resources. These biological invasions have been studied from the niche conservatism and niche shifts perspective. Niche differentiation may result from changes in fundamental niche or realized niche or both; in biological invasions, niche differences between native and non-native ranges can appear through niche expansion, niche unfilling and niche stability. The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus is an invasive species that can have negative impacts on native amphibian populations. This research examines the climate niche shifts of this frog, its potential range of expansion in Mexico and the risk of invasion by bullfrog in the habitats of 82 frog species endemic to Mexico, that based on their climatic niche similarity were divided in four ecological groups. The results indicate that species in two ecological groups were the most vulnerable to invasion by bullfrog. However, the climate niche shifts of L. catesbeianus may allow it to adapt to new environmental conditions, so species from the two remaining groups cannot be dismissed as not vulnerable. This information is valuable for decision making in prioritizing areas for conservation of Mexican endemic frogs.
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Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.
Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco
2017-02-01
While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
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Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence
Ackerly, D.D.; Schwilk, D.W.; Webb, C.O.
2006-01-01
In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in
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Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?
Lavergne, Sébastien; Evans, Margaret E. K.; Burfield, Ian J.; Jiguet, Frederic; Thuiller, Wilfried
2013-01-01
Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change. PMID:23209172
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Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes
Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.
2015-01-01
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hugo I Martínez-Cabrera
Full Text Available Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot.
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Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion.
Chapman, Daniel S; Scalone, Romain; Štefanić, Edita; Bullock, James M
2017-06-01
Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guo, Wen-Yong; Lambertini, Carla; Li, Xiu-Zhen
2013-01-01
niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20(th) century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are on-going and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution....... australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion...... for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> c. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both...
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Socolar, Jacob B; Epanchin, Peter N; Beissinger, Steven R; Tingley, Morgan W
2017-12-05
Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.
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Climate Variability and Sugarcane Yield in Louisiana.
Greenland, David
2005-11-01
This paper seeks to understand the role that climate variability has on annual yield of sugarcane in Louisiana. Unique features of sugarcane growth in Louisiana and nonclimatic, yield-influencing factors make this goal an interesting and challenging one. Several methods of seeking and establishing the relations between yield and climate variables are employed. First, yield climate relations were investigated at a single research station where crop variety and growing conditions could be held constant and yield relations could be established between a predominant older crop variety and a newer one. Interviews with crop experts and a literature survey were used to identify potential climatic factors that control yield. A statistical analysis was performed using statewide yield data from the American Sugar Cane League from 1963 to 2002 and a climate database. Yield values for later years were adjusted downward to form an adjusted yield dataset. The climate database was principally constructed from daily and monthly values of maximum and minimum temperature and daily and monthly total precipitation for six cooperative weather-reporting stations representative of the area of sugarcane production. The influence of 74 different, though not independent, climate-related variables on sugarcane yield was investigated. The fact that a climate signal exists is demonstrated by comparing mean values of the climate variables corresponding to the upper and lower third of adjusted yield values. Most of these mean-value differences show an intuitively plausible difference between the high- and low-yield years. The difference between means of the climate variables for years corresponding to the upper and lower third of annual yield values for 13 of the variables is statistically significant at or above the 90% level. A correlation matrix was used to identify the variables that had the largest influence on annual yield. Four variables [called here critical climatic variables (CCV
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Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Somot, S.
2005-12-01
Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)
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Culumber, Zachary W; Tobler, Michael
2016-02-19
Ecological factors often have a strong impact on spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. The integration of spatial ecology and phylogenetics allows for rigorous tests of whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence. We address this question in a genus of livebearing fishes for which the role of sexual selection in speciation has long been studied, but in which the potential role of ecological divergence during speciation has not been tested. By combining reconstruction of ancestral climate tolerances and disparity indices, we show that the earliest evolutionary split in Xiphophorus was associated with significant divergence for temperature variables. Niche evolution and present day niches were most closely associated with each species' geographic distribution relative to a biogeographic barrier, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Tests for similarity of the environmental backgrounds of closely related species suggested that the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence during speciation varied among the primary clades of Xiphophorus. Closely related species in the two swordtail clades exhibited higher levels of niche overlap than expected given environmental background similarity indicative of niche conservatism. In contrast, almost all species of platyfish had significantly divergent niches compared to environmental backgrounds, which is indicative of niche divergence. The results suggest that the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence differed among the clades of Xiphophorus and that traits associated with niche evolution may be more evolutionarily labile in the platyfishes. Our results ultimately suggest that the taxonomic scale of tests for conservatism and divergence could greatly influence inferences of their relative importance in the speciation process.
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Skeels, Alexander; Cardillo, Marcel
2017-03-01
The causes of exceptionally high plant diversity in Mediterranean-climate biodiversity hotspots are not fully understood. We asked whether a mechanism similar to the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis could explain the diversity of four large genera (Protea, Moraea, Banksia, and Hakea) with distributions within and adjacent to the Greater Cape Floristic Region (South Africa) or the Southwest Floristic Region (Australia). Using phylogenetic and spatial data we estimated the environmental niche of each species, and reconstructed the mode and dynamics of niche evolution, and the geographic history, of each genus. For three genera, there were strong positive relationships between the diversity of clades within a region and their inferred length of occupation of that region. Within genera, there was evidence for strong evolutionary constraint on niche axes associated with climatic seasonality and aridity, with different niche optima for hotspot and nonhotspot clades. Evolutionary transitions away from hotspots were associated with increases in niche breadth and elevated rates of niche evolution. Our results point to a process of "hotspot niche conservatism" whereby the accumulation of plant diversity in Mediterranean-type ecosystems results from longer time for speciation, with dispersal away from hotspots limited by narrow and phylogenetically conserved environmental niches. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Malaria in Africa: vector species' niche models and relative risk maps.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander Moffett
2007-09-01
Full Text Available A central theoretical goal of epidemiology is the construction of spatial models of disease prevalence and risk, including maps for the potential spread of infectious disease. We provide three continent-wide maps representing the relative risk of malaria in Africa based on ecological niche models of vector species and risk analysis at a spatial resolution of 1 arc-minute (9 185 275 cells of approximately 4 sq km. Using a maximum entropy method we construct niche models for 10 malaria vector species based on species occurrence records since 1980, 19 climatic variables, altitude, and land cover data (in 14 classes. For seven vectors (Anopheles coustani, A. funestus, A. melas, A. merus, A. moucheti, A. nili, and A. paludis these are the first published niche models. We predict that Central Africa has poor habitat for both A. arabiensis and A. gambiae, and that A. quadriannulatus and A. arabiensis have restricted habitats in Southern Africa as claimed by field experts in criticism of previous models. The results of the niche models are incorporated into three relative risk models which assume different ecological interactions between vector species. The "additive" model assumes no interaction; the "minimax" model assumes maximum relative risk due to any vector in a cell; and the "competitive exclusion" model assumes the relative risk that arises from the most suitable vector for a cell. All models include variable anthrophilicity of vectors and spatial variation in human population density. Relative risk maps are produced from these models. All models predict that human population density is the critical factor determining malaria risk. Our method of constructing relative risk maps is equally general. We discuss the limits of the relative risk maps reported here, and the additional data that are required for their improvement. The protocol developed here can be used for any other vector-borne disease.
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Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Poleo
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.
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Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis
2007-01-01
The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal
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The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios
Maraun, Douglas
2013-04-01
When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with
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Climate variability and change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Manton, M.
2006-01-01
When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country
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Reaney, Ashley M; Saldarriaga-Córdoba, Mónica; Pincheira-Donoso, Daniel
2018-02-06
Life diversifies via adaptive radiation when natural selection drives the evolution of ecologically distinct species mediated by their access to novel niche space, or via non-adaptive radiation when new species diversify while retaining ancestral niches. However, while cases of adaptive radiation are widely documented, examples of non-adaptively radiating lineages remain rarely observed. A prolific cold-climate lizard radiation from South America (Phymaturus), sister to a hyper-diverse adaptive radiation (Liolaemus), has extensively diversified phylogenetically and geographically, but with exceptionally minimal ecological and life-history diversification. This lineage, therefore, may offer unique opportunities to investigate the non-adaptive basis of diversification, and in combination with Liolaemus, to cover the whole spectrum of modes of diversification predicted by theory, from adaptive to non-adaptive. Using phylogenetic macroevolutionary modelling performed on a newly created 58-species molecular tree, we establish the tempo and mode of diversification in the Phymaturus radiation. Lineage accumulation in Phymaturus opposes a density-dependent (or 'niche-filling') process of diversification. Concurrently, we found that body size diversification is better described by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck evolutionary model, suggesting stabilizing selection as the mechanism underlying niche conservatism (i.e., maintaining two fundamental size peaks), and which has predominantly evolved around two major adaptive peaks on a 'Simpsonian' adaptive landscape. Lineage diversification of the Phymaturus genus does not conform to an adaptive radiation, as it is characterised by a constant rate of species accumulation during the clade's history. Their strict habitat requirements (rocky outcrops), predominantly invariant herbivory, and especially the constant viviparous reproduction across species have likely limited their opportunities for adaptive diversifications throughout novel
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Hawkins, Bradford A; Rueda, Marta; Rangel, Thiago F; Field, Richard; Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F; Linder, Peter
2014-01-01
Aim The fossil record has led to a historical explanation for forest diversity gradients within the cool parts of the Northern Hemisphere, founded on a limited ability of woody angiosperm clades to adapt to mid-Tertiary cooling. We tested four predictions of how this should be manifested in the phylogenetic structure of 91,340 communities: (1) forests to the north should comprise species from younger clades (families) than forests to the south; (2) average cold tolerance at a local site should be associated with the mean family age (MFA) of species; (3) minimum temperature should account for MFA better than alternative environmental variables; and (4) traits associated with survival in cold climates should evolve under a niche conservatism constraint. Location The contiguous United States. Methods We extracted angiosperms from the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis database. MFA was calculated by assigning age of the family to which each species belongs and averaging across the species in each community. We developed a phylogeny to identify phylogenetic signal in five traits: realized cold tolerance, seed size, seed dispersal mode, leaf phenology and height. Phylogenetic signal representation curves and phylogenetic generalized least squares were used to compare patterns of trait evolution against Brownian motion. Eleven predictors structured at broad or local scales were generated to explore relationships between environment and MFA using random forest and general linear models. Results Consistent with predictions, (1) southern communities comprise angiosperm species from older families than northern communities, (2) cold tolerance is the trait most strongly associated with local MFA, (3) minimum temperature in the coldest month is the environmental variable that best describes MFA, broad-scale variables being much stronger correlates than local-scale variables, and (4) the phylogenetic structures of cold tolerance and at least one other trait
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Zhang, Yueyun; Chen, Chongtao; Li, Li; Zhao, Chengjian; Chen, Weicai; Huang, Yong
2014-09-01
The black-spotted tokay and the red-spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black-spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red-spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point-based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black- and the red-spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values ("black" = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, "red" = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the "black" form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the "red" form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black- and the red
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Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.
Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M
2017-08-01
Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.
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Carolyn M. Beans; Francis F. Kilkenny; Laura F. Galloway
2012-01-01
Ecological niche models are commonly used to identify regions at risk of species invasions. Relying on climate alone may limit a model's success when additional variables contribute to invasion. While a climate-based model may predict the future spread of an invasive plant, we hypothesized that a model that combined climate with human influences would most...
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Harvesting Atlantic Cod under Climate Variability
Oremus, K. L.
2016-12-01
Previous literature links the growth of a fishery to climate variability. This study uses an age-structured bioeconomic model to compare optimal harvest in the Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod fishery under a variable climate versus a static climate. The optimal harvest path depends on the relationship between fishery growth and the interest rate, with higher interest rates dictating greater harvests now at the cost of long-term stock sustainability. Given the time horizon of a single generation of fishermen under assumptions of a static climate, the model finds that the economically optimal management strategy is to harvest the entire stock in the short term and allow the fishery to collapse. However, if the biological growth of the fishery is assumed to vary with climate conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, there will always be pulses of high growth in the stock. During some of these high-growth years, the growth of the stock and its economic yield can exceed the growth rate of the economy even under high interest rates. This implies that it is not economically optimal to exhaust the New England cod fishery if NAO is included in the biological growth function. This finding may have theoretical implications for the management of other renewable yet exhaustible resources whose growth rates are subject to climate variability.
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Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Cocoa ( Theobroma Cacao ) Yields in Meme Division, South West Region of Cameroon. ... Farm selection was based on age, consistency of sizes and management practices in an attempt to keep the factors affecting cocoa yield constant. Data on cocoa yield, flowering, ...
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McCormack, John E; Zellmer, Amanda J; Knowles, L Lacey
2010-05-01
The role of ecology in the origin of species has been the subject of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. New sources of spatially explicit ecological data allow for large-scale tests of whether speciation is associated with niche divergence or whether closely related species tend to be similar ecologically (niche conservatism). Because of the confounding effects of spatial autocorrelation of environmental variables, we generate null expectations for niche divergence for both an ecological-niche modeling and a multivariate approach to address the question: do allopatrically distributed taxa occupy similar niches? In a classic system for the study of niche evolution--the Aphelocoma jays--we show that there is little evidence for niche divergence among Mexican Jay (A. ultramarina) lineages in the process of speciation, contrary to previous results. In contrast, Aphelocoma species that exist in partial sympatry in some regions show evidence for niche divergence. Our approach is widely applicable to the many cases of allopatric lineages in the beginning stages of speciation. These results do not support an ecological speciation model for Mexican Jay lineages because, in most cases, the allopatric environments they occupy are not significantly more divergent than expected under a null model.
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US Climate Variability and Predictability Project
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Patterson, Mike [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
2017-11-14
The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year support of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.
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Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate
McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.
2014-12-01
Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.
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González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio; Marín, Juan Carlos; Estades, Cristián F
2013-01-01
Niche description and differentiation at broad geographic scales have been recent major topics in ecology and evolution. Describing the environmental niche structure of sister taxa with known evolutionary trajectories stands out as a useful exercise in understanding niche requirements. Here we model the environmental niche structure and distribution of the recently resolved phylogeography of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) lineages on the western slope of the southern Andes. Using a maximum entropy framework, field data, and information on climate, topography, human density, and vegetation cover, we identify differences between the two subspecies (L.g.cacsilensis, L.g.guanicoe) and their intermediate-hybrid lineage, that most likely determine the distribution of this species. While aridity seems to be a major factor influencing the distribution at the species-level (annual precipitation ecological and/or evolutionary processes are shaping the niche of guanacos in Chile, producing discrepancies when comparing range distribution at the species-level (81,756 km(2)) with lineages-level (65,321 km(2)). The subspecies-specific description of niche structure is provided here based upon detailed spatial distribution of the lineages of guanacos in Chile. Such description provides a scientific tool to further develop large scale plans for habitat conservation and preservation of intraspecific genetic variability for this far ranging South American camelid, which inhabits a diversity of ecoregion types from Andean puna to subpolar forests.
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kolanowska, Marta; Grochocka, E.; Konowalik, K.
2017-01-01
Roč. 5, may (2017), č. článku e3328. ISSN 2167-8359 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36098G Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : campylocentrum orchidaceae * molecular phylogenetics * environmental niches * costa-rica * diversity * models * speciation * ecology * pollination * divergence * Angraecinae * Ecological niche modeling * Orchidaceae * Phylogenetic niche conservatism * Angraecum * Campylocentrum * Dendrophylax Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Biodiversity conservation Impact factor: 2.177, year: 2016
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Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
BRO OKOJIE
Rural livelihoods in south western Nigeria are at risk to climate variability on the short run and climate change on .... to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability as well as longer-term climate change. Nigeria has lost her leading role in exportation of cocoa. This has been attributed .... sizes and type of farm ownership.
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Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants.
Csergő, Anna M; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Broennimann, Olivier; Coutts, Shaun R; Guisan, Antoine; Angert, Amy L; Welk, Erik; Stott, Iain; Enquist, Brian J; McGill, Brian; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Violle, Cyrille; Buckley, Yvonne M
2017-08-01
Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species' occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide - as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk - was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species' climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records
Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.
2013-12-01
Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and
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Arctic climate change and decadal variability
Linden, van der Eveline C.
2016-01-01
High northern latitudes exhibit enhanced near-surface warming in a climate with increasing greenhouse gases compared to other parts of the globe, indicating an amplified climate response to external forcing. Decadal to multidecadal variability sometimes enhances and at other times reduces the
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Present and Future Modes of Low Frequency Climate Variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cane, Mark A.
2014-02-20
This project addressed area (1) of the FOA, “Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability”. Our overarching objective is to detect, describe and understand the changes in low frequency variability between model simulations of the preindustrial climate and simulations of a doubled CO2 climate. The deliverables are a set of papers providing a dynamical characterization of interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in coupled models with attention to the changes in this low frequency variability between pre-industrial concentrations of greenhouse gases and a doubling of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The principle mode of analysis, singular vector decomposition, is designed to advance our physical, mechanistic understanding. This study will include external natural variability due to solar and volcanic aerosol variations as well as variability internal to the climate system. An important byproduct is a set of analysis tools for estimating global singular vector structures from the archived output of model simulations.
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Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover
Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.
2013-01-01
Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antoine eBruge
2016-06-01
Full Text Available North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel’s spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models: (i a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/°C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century, the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that centre of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km and northward (0.5 to 328 km, but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from -9.3% to 12%. With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in
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Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean
Rousseaux, Cecile
2012-01-01
The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (pphytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.
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Comparing farmers' perception of climate change and variability with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Perception of climate change and variability supported by local knowledge has helped to advance understanding of climate change and its impacts on agricultural land-use systems. This study compares farmers' perception of climate change and variability in four communities of the Upper East Region of Ghana. Using a ...
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Ontogenetic niche shifts in three Vaccinium species on a sub-alpine mountain side
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Auffret, Alistair G.; Meineri, Eric; Bruun, Hans Henrik
2010-01-01
Background: Climate warming in arctic and alpine regions is expected to result in the altitudinal migration of plant species, but current predictions neglect differences between species' regeneration niche and established niche. Aims: To examine potential recruitment of Vaccinium myrtillus, V. ul...
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Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Although the primary input data of climate interpolations are usually meteorological data, other related (independent) variables are frequently incorporated in the interpolation process. One such variable is elevation, which is known to have a strong influence on climate. This research investigates the potential of 4 additional ...
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Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M G; Maass, Brigitte L; Whitbread, Anthony M
2017-01-01
Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [ Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha -1 . An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter
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Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.
Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B
2015-03-07
How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
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Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.
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Electricity consumption and climate, relationship with climatic variable
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fonte Hernandez, Aramis; Rivero Jaspe, Zoltan
2004-01-01
Perhaps, since in the world people is more concerned about the possibility of climatic impact on the energy consumption, actually it is an attractive theme not only for undeveloped countries, but also for developed. In this work, a study on the electricity consumption of residential sector in the province of Camaguey, Cuba, during the last ten years of X X century, was done. In it, climatic variables like temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and wind speed, were included. Specifically, in the case of temperature, it was used both in its primitive form, and like a derived variable in the form of degree-day. For this reason, firstly the appropriate value of base temperature for the area under study was determined, obtaining a value of 23.6 Celsius Degrade. After that, using nonlinear regression analysis, statistical models with acceptable predictive capacity, were obtained
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Temporal relationship between climate variability, Prosopis juliflora ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Kyuma
Key words: Climate, drylands, livestock, Prosopis juliflora, variability vegetation, trends, mesquite. ... climate change is costly and predictions are that both it and its cost will escalate ... Resilience Alliance, 2010; Tennigkeit and Wilkes, 2008;.
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Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felix A. Asante
2014-12-01
Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.
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THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND CROP AREA ON MAIZE YIELD AND VARIABILITY IN GHANA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henry De-Graft Acquah
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Climate change tends to have negative effects on crop yield through its influence on crop production. Understanding the relationship between climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of crop yield will facilitate development of appropriate policies to cope with climate change. This paper examines the effects of climatic variables and crop area on the mean and variance of maize yield in Ghana. The Just and Pope stochastic production function using the Cobb-Douglas functional form was employed. The results show that average maize yield is positively related to crop area and negatively related to rainfall and temperature. Furthermore, increase in crop area and temperature will enlarge maize yield variability while rainfall increase will decrease the variability in maize yield.
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Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability
Parsons, Luke Alexander
Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall
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Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of ... and vulnerability to climate variability and climate change is assessed, using data ... Model results suggest that the ecosystem is quite resilient and suggests that ...
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A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.
Reyer, Christopher P O; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Rammig, Anja; Wolf, Annett; Bartholomeus, Ruud P; Bonfante, Antonello; de Lorenzi, Francesca; Dury, Marie; Gloning, Philipp; Abou Jaoudé, Renée; Klein, Tamir; Kuster, Thomas M; Martins, Monica; Niedrist, Georg; Riccardi, Maria; Wohlfahrt, Georg; de Angelis, Paolo; de Dato, Giovanbattista; François, Louis; Menzel, Annette; Pereira, Marízia
2013-01-01
We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heat-waves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Wogan, Guinevere O.U.; Richmond, Jonathan Q.
2015-01-01
Adaptation to different thermal environments has the potential to cause evolutionary changes that are sufficient to drive ecological speciation. Here, we examine whether climate-based niche divergence in lizards of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex is consistent with the outcomes of such a process. Previous work on this group shows that a mechanical sexual barrier has evolved between species that differ mainly in body size and that the barrier may be a by-product of selection for increased body size in lineages that have invaded xeric environments; however, baseline information on niche divergence among members of the group is lacking. We quantified the climatic niche using mechanistic physiological and correlative niche models and then estimated niche differences among species using ordination techniques and tests of niche overlap and equivalency. Our results show that the thermal niches of size-divergent, reproductively isolated morphospecies are significantly differentiated and that precipitation may have been as important as temperature in causing increased shifts in body size in xeric habitats. While these findings alone do not demonstrate thermal adaptation or identify the cause of speciation, their integration with earlier genetic and behavioral studies provides a useful test of phenotype–environment associations that further support the case for ecological speciation in these lizards.
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Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability
Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos
2016-01-01
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
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Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S
2016-01-01
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...
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Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)
2008-06-15
The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)
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The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability
Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.
2018-03-01
Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.
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Ecological niche of plant pathogens
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ecaterina Fodor
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.
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Ecological niche of plant pathogens
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ecaterina Fodor
2011-02-01
Full Text Available Disease ecology is a new approach to the understanding of the spread and dynamics of pathogens in natural and man-made environments. Defining and describing the ecological niche of the pathogens is one of the major tasks for ecological theory, as well as for practitioners preoccupied with the control and forecasting of established and emerging diseases. Niche theory has been periodically revised, not including in an explicit way the pathogens. However, many progresses have been achieved in niche modeling of disease spread, but few attempts were made to construct a theoretical frame for the ecological niche of pathogens. The paper is a review of the knowledge accumulated during last decades in the niche theory of pathogens and proposes an ecological approach in research. It quest for new control methods in what concerns forest plant pathogens, with a special emphasis on fungi like organisms of the genus Phytophthora. Species of Phytophthora are the most successful plant pathogens of the moment, affecting forest and agricultural systems worldwide, many of them being invasive alien organisms in many ecosystems. The hyperspace of their ecological niche is defined by hosts, environment and human interference, as main axes. To select most important variables within the hyperspace, is important for the understanding of the complex role of pathogens in the ecosystems as well as for control programs. Biotic relationships within ecosystem of host-pathogen couple are depicted by ecological network and specific metrics attached to this. The star shaped network is characterized by few high degree nodes, by short path lengths and relatively low connectivity, premises for a rapid disturbance spread.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elen A Peres
Full Text Available The influence of Quaternary climate oscillations on the diversification of the South American fauna is being increasingly explored. However, most of these studies have focused on taxa that are endemic to tropical environments, and relatively few have treated organisms restricted to subtropical biomes. Here we used an integrative phylogeographical framework to investigate the effects of these climate events on the ecological niche and genetic patterns of the subtropical orb-weaver spider Araneus omnicolor (Araneidae. We analyzed the mitochondrial (Cytochrome Oxidase I, COI and nuclear (Internal Transcribed Subunit II, ITS2 DNA of 130 individuals throughout the species' range, and generated distribution models in three different climate scenarios [present, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and Last Interglacial Maximum (LIG]. Additionally, we used an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC approach to compare possible demographic scenarios and select the hypothesis that better explains the genetic patterns of A. omnicolor. We obtained high haplotype diversity but low nucleotide variation among sequences. The population structure and demographic analyses showed discrepancies between markers, suggesting male-biased dispersal in the species. The time-calibrated COI phylogenetic inference showed a recent diversification of lineages (Middle/Late Pleistocene, while the paleoclimate modeling indicated niche stability since ~120 Kya. The ABC results agreed with the niche models, supporting a panmictic population as the most likely historical scenario for the species. These results indicate that A. omnicolor experienced no niche or population reductions during the Late Pleistocene, despite the intense landscape modifications that occurred in the subtropical region, and that other factors beside LGM and LIG climate oscillations might have contributed to the demographic history of this species. This pattern may be related to the high dispersal ability and wide
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Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science
Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.
2011-01-01
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
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Machovsky-Capuska, Gabriel E; Miller, Mark G R; Silva, Fabiola R O; Amiot, Christophe; Stockin, Karen A; Senior, Alistair M; Schuckard, Rob; Melville, David; Raubenheimer, David
2018-06-05
1.Our understanding of the niche concept will remain limited while the quantity and range of different food types eaten remains a dominant proxy for niche breadth, as this does not account for the broad ecological context that governs diet. Linking nutrition, physiology and behaviour are critical to predict the extent to which a species adjusts its nutritional niche breadth at the levels of prey ("prey composition niche", defined as the range of prey compositions eaten), and diet ("realized nutritional niche" is the range of diets composed through feeding on the prey). 2.Here we studied adult-chick rearing Australasian gannets (Morus serrator) to propose an integrative approach using sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), geographic location and bathymetry over different years, to explore their relationship with the nutritional composition of prey and diets (i.e., prey composition and nutritional niche breadth), habitat use and foraging behavior. 3.We found that gannets feed on prey that varied widely in their nutritional composition (have a broad prey composition niche), and composed diets from these prey that likewise varied in composition (have a broad realized nutritional niche), suggesting generalism at two levels of macronutrient selection. 4.Across seasons, we established "nutritional landscapes" (hereafter nutriscapes), linking the nutritional content of prey (wet mass protein to-lipid ratio -P:L-) to the most likely geographic area of capture and bathymetry. Nutriscapes varied in their P:L from 6.06 to 15.28, over time, space and bathymetry (0 to 150 m). 5.During warm water events (strong positive SSTa), gannets expanded their foraging habitat, increased their foraging trip duration and consumed prey and diets with low macronutrient content (wet mass proportions of P and L). They were also constrained to the smallest prey composition and realized nutritional niche breadths. 6.Our findings are consistent with previous suggestions that dietary generalism
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Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability
Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.
2018-04-01
This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent
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Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles
2014-01-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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Imbers, Jara
2014-05-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
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Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability
Busalacchi, Antonio J.
1999-01-01
Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.
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Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin
Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend
2008-01-01
Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224
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Pörtner, Hans O; Gutt, Julian
2016-07-01
Understanding thermal ranges and limits of organisms becomes important in light of climate change and observed effects on ecosystems as reported by the IPCC (2014). Evolutionary adaptation to temperature is presently unable to keep animals and other organisms in place; if they can these rather follow the moving isotherms. These effects of climate change on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have brought into focus the mechanisms by which temperature and its oscillations shape the biogeography and survival of species. For animals, the integrative concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) has successfully characterized the sublethal limits to performance and the consequences of such limits for ecosystems. Recent models illustrate how routine energy demand defines the realized niche. Steady state temperature-dependent performance profiles thus trace the thermal window and indicate a key role for aerobic metabolism, and the resulting budget of available energy (power), in defining performance under routine conditions, from growth to exercise and reproduction. Differences in the performance and productivity of marine species across latitudes relate to changes in mitochondrial density, capacity, and other features of cellular design. Comparative studies indicate how and why such mechanisms underpinning OCLTT may have developed on evolutionary timescales in different climatic zones and contributed to shaping the functional characteristics and species richness of the respective fauna. A cause-and-effect understanding emerges from considering the relationships between fluctuations in body temperature, cellular design, and performance. Such principles may also have been involved in shaping the functional characteristics of survivors in mass extinction events during earth's history; furthermore, they may provide access to understanding the evolution of endothermy in mammals and birds. Accordingly, an understanding is emerging how climate changes and
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria da Salete Gurgel Costa
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.
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Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.
Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula
2013-06-01
Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne Sennhenn
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L., cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L. Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L. Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM. The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index. While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and
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Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M. G.; Maass, Brigitte L.; Whitbread, Anthony M.
2017-01-01
Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter
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Banks, William E; d'Errico, Francesco; Zilhão, João
2013-01-01
The Aurignacian technocomplex comprises a succession of culturally distinct phases. Between its first two subdivisions, the Proto-Aurignacian and the Early Aurignacian, we see a shift from single to separate reduction sequences for blade and bladelet production, the appearance of split-based antler points, and a number of other changes in stone tool typology and technology as well as in symbolic material culture. Bayesian modeling of available (14)C determinations, conducted within the framework of this study, indicates that these material culture changes are coincident with abrupt and marked climatic changes. The Proto-Aurignacian occurs during an interval (ca. 41.5-39.9 k cal BP) of relative climatic amelioration, Greenland Interstadials (GI) 10 and 9, punctuated by a short cold stadial. The Early Aurignacian (ca. 39.8-37.9 k cal BP) predominantly falls within the climatic phase known as Heinrich Stadial (HS) 4, and its end overlaps with the beginning of GI 8, the former being predominantly characterized by cold and dry conditions across the European continent. We use eco-cultural niche modeling to quantitatively evaluate whether these shifts in material culture are correlated with environmental variability and, if so, whether the ecological niches exploited by human populations shifted accordingly. We employ genetic algorithm (GARP) and maximum entropy (Maxent) techniques to estimate the ecological niches exploited by humans (i.e., eco-cultural niches) during these two phases of the Aurignacian. Partial receiver operating characteristic analyses are used to evaluate niche variability between the two phases. Results indicate that the changes in material culture between the Proto-Aurignacian and the Early Aurignacian are associated with an expansion of the ecological niche. These shifts in both the eco-cultural niche and material culture are interpreted to represent an adaptive response to the relative deterioration of environmental conditions at the onset of HS4
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daryl eCodron
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Large mammal ecosystems have relatively simple food webs, usually comprising three – and sometimes only two – trophic links. Since many syntopic species from the same trophic level therefore share resources, dietary niche partitioning features prominently within these systems. In African and other subtropical savannas, stable carbon isotopes readily distinguish between herbivore species for which foliage and other parts of dicot plants (13C-depleted C3 vegetation are the primary resource (browsers and those for which grasses (13C-enriched C4 vegetation are staples (grazers. Similarly, carbon isotopes distinguish between carnivore diets that may be richer in either browser, grazer, or intermediate-feeding prey. Here, we investigate levels of carbon and nitrogen isotopic niche variation and niche partitioning within populations (or species of carnivores and herbivores from South African savannas. We emphasize predictable differences in within-population trends across trophic levels: we expect that herbivore populations, which require more foraging effort due to higher intake requirements, are far less likely to display within-population resource partitioning than carnivore populations. Our results reveal generally narrower isotopic niche breadths in herbivore than carnivore populations, but more importantly we find lower levels of isotopic differentiation across individuals within herbivore species. While these results offer some support for our general hypothesis, the current paucity of isotopic data for African carnivores limits our ability to test the complete set of predictions arising from our hypothesis. Nevertheless, given the different ecological and ecophysiological constraints to foraging behaviour within each trophic level, comparisons across carnivores and herbivores, which are possible within such simplified foodwebs, make these systems ideal for developing a process-based understanding of conditions underlying the evolution of
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Human activity and climate variability project: annual report 2001
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harle, K.J.; Heijnis, H.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Sharmeen, S.; Zahorowski, W.
2002-01-01
Knowledge of the state of the Australian environment, including natural climate variability, prior to colonial settlement is vital if we are to define and understand the impact of over two hundred years of post-industrial human activity on our landscape. ANSTO, in conjunction with university partners, is leading a major research effort to provide natural archives of human activity and climate variability over the last 500 years in Australia, utilising a variety of techniques, including lead-210 and radiocarbon dating and analyses of proxy indicators (such as microfossils) as well as direct evidence (such as trace elements) of human activity and climate variability. The other major project objectives were to contribute to the understanding of the impact of human induced and natural aerosols in the East Asian region on climate through analysis and sourcing of fine particles and characterisation of air samples using radon concentrations and to contribute to the improvement of land surface parameterisation schemes and investigate the potential to use stable isotopes to improve global climate models and thus improve our understanding of future climate
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A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.
2013-01-01
We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722
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Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.
Duputié, Anne; Rutschmann, Alexis; Ronce, Ophélie; Chuine, Isabelle
2015-08-01
Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop production in southern Mali
Traore, B.; Corbeels, M.; Wijk, van M.T.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.
2013-01-01
In West Africa predictions of future changes in climate and especially rainfall are highly uncertain, and up to now no long-term analyses are available of the effects of climate on crop production. This study analyses long-term trends in climate variability at N'Tarla and Sikasso in southern Mali
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Diet and trophic niche of Lithobates catesbeianus (Amphibia: Anura
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peterson T. Leivas
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Lithobates catesbeianus (Shaw, 1802 is an invasive anuran introduced in Brazil that is associated with the displacement and the decline of populations of native species worldwide. There is evidence that biological invasions are facilitated by certain attributes of the invading species, for instance niche breath, and that invasive species have a broader ecological niche with respect to native ones. We designed a study to ascertain the temporal, ontogenetic, and sex differences in the niche dynamics of the American bullfrog. We sampled monthly from June 2008 to May 2009 in the state of Paraná, southern Brazil. For each individual, we gathered biometric and stomach content data. We then estimated the niche breath of the juveniles and adults, and compared it between the sexes. A total of 104 females and 77 males were sampled. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet, preying upon invertebrates and vertebrates. Even though the diet of the studied population varied seasonally, it did not differ between the sexes nor did it respond to biometric variables. Niche breadth was more restricted in the winter than in the autumn. The trophic niche of juveniles and adults did not overlap much when compared with the trophic niche overlap between males and females. Adult males and females had a considerable niche overlap, but females had a broader trophic niche than males in the winter and in the spring. These niche characteristics point to an opportunistic predation strategy that may have facilitated the process of invasion and establishment of this species in the study area.
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Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Claussen, M.
1993-01-01
The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)
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Ortega-García, Stephanie; Guevara, Lázaro; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Lindig-Cisneros, Roberto; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Vega, Ernesto; Schondube, Jorge E
2017-09-01
The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.
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Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Henriksson, S.
2013-09-01
Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy
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CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gukurume Simbarashe
2013-02-01
Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.
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Pellissier, Loïc; Litsios, Glenn; Fishbein, Mark; Salamin, Nicolas; Agrawal, Anurag A; Rasmann, Sergio
2016-02-01
Given the dual role of many plant traits to tolerate both herbivore attack and abiotic stress, the climatic niche of a species should be integrated into the study of plant defense strategies. Here we investigate the impact of plant reproductive strategy and components of species' climatic niche on the rate of chemical defense evolution in the milkweeds using a common garden experiment of 49 species. We found that across Asclepias species, clonal reproduction repeatedly evolved in lower temperature conditions, in species generally producing low concentrations of a toxic defense (cardenolides). Additionally, we found that rates of cardenolide evolution were lower for clonal than for nonclonal species. We thus conclude that because the clonal strategy is based on survival, long generation times, and is associated with tolerance of herbivory, it may be an alternative to toxicity in colder ecosystems. Taken together, these results indicate that the rate of chemical defense evolution is influenced by the intersection of life-history strategy and climatic niches into which plants radiate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
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Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.
2014-12-01
Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact
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The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change
Neelin, J. D.
2017-12-01
Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.
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Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas
2015-01-01
Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating
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McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin
2017-01-01
ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.
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Karunarathne, Piyal; Schedler, Mara; Martínez, Eric J; Honfi, Ana I; Novichkova, Anastasiia; Hojsgaard, Diego
2018-05-11
Niche divergence between polyploids and their lower ploidy progenitors is one of the primary mechanisms fostering polyploid establishment and adaptive divergence. However, within-species chromosomal and reproductive variability have usually been neglected in community ecology and biodiversity analyses even though they have been recognized to play a role in the adaptive diversification of lineages. We used Paspalum intermedium, a grass species with diverging genetic systems (diploidy vs. autopolyploidy, allogamy vs. autogamy and sexuality vs. apomixis), to recognize the causality of biogeographic patterns, adaptation and ecological flexibility of cytotypes. Chromosome counts and flow cytometry were used to characterize within-species genetic systems diversity. Environmental niche modelling was used to evaluate intraspecific ecological attributes associated with environmental and climatic factors and to assess correlations among ploidy, reproductive modes and ecological conditions ruling species' population dynamics, range expansion, adaptation and evolutionary history. Two dominant cytotypes non-randomly distributed along local and regional geographical scales displayed niche differentiation, a directional shift in niche optima and signs of disruptive selection on ploidy-related ecological aptitudes for the exploitation of environmental resources. Ecologically specialized allogamous sexual diploids were found in northern areas associated with higher temperature, humidity and productivity, while generalist autogamous apomictic tetraploids occurred in southern areas, occupying colder and less productive environments. Four localities with a documented shift in ploidy and four mixed populations in a zone of ecological transition revealed an uneven replacement between cytotypes. Polyploidy and contrasting reproductive traits between cytotypes have promoted shifts in niche optima, and increased ecological tolerance and niche divergence. Ecologically specialized diploids
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Niche conservatism in Gynandropaa frogs on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
Hu, Junhua; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Wang, Bin; Huang, Yan; Jiang, Jianping
2016-09-07
The role of ecological niche in lineage diversification has been the subject of long-standing interest of ecologists and evolutionary biologists. Gynandropaa frogs diversified into three independent clades endemic to the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Here, we address the question whether these clades kept the same niche after separation, and what it tells us about possible diversification processes. We applied predictions in geographical (G)-space and tests of niche conservatism in environmental (E)-space. Niche models in G-space indicate separate regions with high suitability for the different clades, with some potential areas of sympatry. While the pair of central and eastern clades displayed the largest niche overlap for most variables, and strict niche equivalency was rejected for all clade-pairs, we found no strong evidence for niche divergence, but rather the signature of niche conservatism compared to null models in E-space. These results suggest a common ancestral ecological niche, and as such give good support to divergence through allopatric speciation, but alternative explanations are also possible. Our findings illustrate how testing for niche conservatism in lineage diversification can provide insights into underlying speciation processes, and how this information may guide further research and conservation practices, as illustrated here for amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
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Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa
Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.
2014-12-01
Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.
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Niche dimensions in fishes: an integrative view.
Pörtner, H O; Schulte, P M; Wood, C M; Schiemer, F
2010-01-01
Current shifts in ecosystem composition and function emphasize the need for an understanding of the links between environmental factors and organism fitness and tolerance. The examples discussed here illustrate how recent progress in the field of comparative physiology may provide a better mechanistic understanding of the ecological concepts of the fundamental and realized niches and thus provide insights into the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. Here we argue that, as a link between physiological and ecological indicators of organismal performance, the mechanisms shaping aerobic scope and passive tolerance set the dimensions of an animal's niche, here defined as its capacity to survive, grow, behave, and interact with other species. We demonstrate how comparative studies of cod or killifish populations in a latitudinal cline have unraveled mitochondrial mechanisms involved in establishing a species' niche, performance, and energy budget. Riverine fish exemplify how the performance windows of various developmental stages follow the dynamic regimes of both seasonal temperatures and river hydrodynamics, as synergistic challenges. Finally, studies of species in extreme environments, such as the tilapia of Lake Magadi, illustrate how on evolutionary timescales functional and morphological shifts can occur, associated with new specializations. We conclude that research on the processes and time course of adaptations suitable to overcome current niche limits is urgently needed to assess the resilience of species and ecosystems to human impact, including the challenges of global climate change.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caroline M Hammerschlag-Peyer
Full Text Available Ontogenetic niche shifts occur across diverse taxonomic groups, and can have critical implications for population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. In this study, we provide a hypothesis-testing framework combining univariate and multivariate analyses to examine ontogenetic niche shifts using stable isotope ratios. This framework is based on three distinct ontogenetic niche shift scenarios, i.e., (1 no niche shift, (2 niche expansion/reduction, and (3 discrete niche shift between size classes. We developed criteria for identifying each scenario, as based on three important resource use characteristics, i.e., niche width, niche position, and niche overlap. We provide an empirical example for each ontogenetic niche shift scenario, illustrating differences in resource use characteristics among different organisms. The present framework provides a foundation for future studies on ontogenetic niche shifts, and also can be applied to examine resource variability among other population sub-groupings (e.g., by sex or phenotype.
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Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability
Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.
2016-12-01
Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.
2014-01-01
Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.
2014-09-15
Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:
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Environmental niche divergence among three dune shrub sister species with parapatric distributions.
Chozas, Sergio; Chefaoui, Rosa M; Correia, Otília; Bonal, Raúl; Hortal, Joaquín
2017-05-01
The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus , which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener's index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling. The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides-spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene fine-textured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii , the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations. : The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical
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Eyewitness Accounts on Climate Variability and the Responses: Perspectives from Farmers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiban Mani Poudel
2012-06-01
Full Text Available People with different socio-cultural arrangements havedifferent experiences and responses to climatic variability. The place specific experiences and responses at community level still remain a little explored issue in the discourse of climate change research. This paper deals with local experiences of climatic variability which have been monitoring by locals in their lifetime, on the one hand, and, on the other, explore their responses or coping mechanisms which they have been practicing to mitigate with climatic risks. Moreover, farmers’ experiences were documented in term of observed climatic variability in their lifetime focusing on qualitative data. I have used eyewitness accounts and hearsays to document their experiences of climatic variability. Moreover, farmers have developed various coping mechanisms such as indigenous knowledge, utilize kinship based social network, environment friendly cropping practices, and use of alternative sources of water (water-tanker, well-water for irrigation, arrange rain-making ritual to cope with climatic uncertainty in their lifetime.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v5i0.6362Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 5, 2011: 171-90
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Freeman, L. A.; Kleypas, J. A.; Miller, A. J.
2013-12-01
A maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe coral reef habitat in current climate conditions and to predict changes to that habitat during the 21st century. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for the family of corals Scleractina in 1° by 1° cells. Input environmental variables most suitable for representing coral habitat limitation are isolated using a principal component analysis and include cumulative thermal stress, salinity, light availability, current speed, phosphate levels and aragonite saturation state. Considering a suite of environmental variables allows for a more synergistic view of future habitat suitability, although individual variables are found to be limiting in certain areas- for example, aragonite saturation state is limiting at higher latitudes. Climate-driven coral reef habitat changes depend strongly on the oceanic region of interest and the region of corals used to train the niche model. Increased global coral habitat loss occurred in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections as time progressed through the 21th century. Maximum suitable habitat loss was 82% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When only Caribbean/Atlantic coral reef environmental data is applied globally, 88% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP8.5. The global runs utilizing only Pacific Ocean reefs' ability to survive showed the most significant worldwide loss, 90% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained with Indian Ocean reefs, an increase in suitable habitat worldwide was estimated. Habitat suitability was found to increase by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. This suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future worldwide climate projections. Indian Ocean reefs may be ideal candidate
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Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bengtsson, Lennart
1999-01-01
The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations
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Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.
Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A
2011-05-21
Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on
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Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caroline A Curtis
Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for
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Transitions and strategic niche management: Towards a competence kit for practitioners
Raven, R.; Bosch, S. van den; Weterings, R.
2010-01-01
Structural problems in modern societies, such as climate change and congestion problems, require 'transitions' towards a more susTWNnable fulfilment of social needs. Recent research shows that experimenting in niches is crucial for learning about social challenges and stimulating transitions.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benito A González
Full Text Available Niche description and differentiation at broad geographic scales have been recent major topics in ecology and evolution. Describing the environmental niche structure of sister taxa with known evolutionary trajectories stands out as a useful exercise in understanding niche requirements. Here we model the environmental niche structure and distribution of the recently resolved phylogeography of guanaco (Lama guanicoe lineages on the western slope of the southern Andes. Using a maximum entropy framework, field data, and information on climate, topography, human density, and vegetation cover, we identify differences between the two subspecies (L.g.cacsilensis, L.g.guanicoe and their intermediate-hybrid lineage, that most likely determine the distribution of this species. While aridity seems to be a major factor influencing the distribution at the species-level (annual precipitation <900 mm, we also document important differences in niche specificity for each subspecies, where distribution of Northern lineage is explained mainly by elevation (mean = 3,413 m and precipitation seasonality (mean = 161 mm, hybrid lineage by annual precipitation (mean = 139 mm, and Southern subspecies by annual precipitation (mean = 553 mm, precipitation seasonality (mean = 21 mm and grass cover (mean = 8.2%. Among lineages, we detected low levels of niche overlap: I (Similarity Index = 0.06 and D (Schoener's Similarity Index = 0.01; and higher levels when comparing Northern and Southern subspecies with hybrids lineage ( I = 0.32-0.10 and D = 0.12-0.03, respectively. This suggests that important ecological and/or evolutionary processes are shaping the niche of guanacos in Chile, producing discrepancies when comparing range distribution at the species-level (81,756 km(2 with lineages-level (65,321 km(2. The subspecies-specific description of niche structure is provided here based upon detailed spatial distribution of the lineages of guanacos in Chile. Such description
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Cryptococcus gattii: Emergence in Western North America: Exploitation of a Novel Ecological Niche
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Kausik Datta
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The relatively uncommon fungal pathogen Cryptococcus gattii recently emerged as a significant cause of cryptococcal disease in human and animals in the Pacific Northwest of North America. Although genetic studies indicated its possible presence in the Pacific Northwest for more than 30 years, C. gattii as an etiological agent was largely unknown in this region prior to 1999. The recent emergence may have been encouraged by changing conditions of climate or land use and/or host susceptibility, and predictive ecological niche modeling indicates a potentially wider spread. C. gattii can survive wide climatic variations and colonize the environment in tropical, subtropical, temperate, and dry climates. Long-term climate changes, such as the significantly elevated global temperature in the last 100 years, influence patterns of disease among plants and animals and create niche microclimates habitable by emerging pathogens. C. gattii may have exploited such a hitherto unrecognized but clement environment in the Pacific Northwest to provide a wider exposure and risk of infection to human and animal populations.
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Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability
Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.
2003-01-01
An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change
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Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Minji Seo
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This
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Some aspects of climate variability in the north east Ethiopian ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents a review of climate variability in the northeast Ethiopian Highlands, particularly Wollo and Tigray, during the last 10000 years (the Holocene) and an analysis of rainfall variability during the historical period. To date little work has been done on climate reconstruction in Tigray and Wollo, however, ...
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diniz, J.A.F.; Nabout, J.C.; Bini, L.M.
2010-01-01
niche models, four AOGCMs and two emission scenarios. Combinations of these effects (50 cross-validations for each of the 15 subsets of the environmental variables) were used to estimate and map the occurrence frequencies (EOF) across all analyses. A three-way anova was used to partition and map...... the sources of variation. 3. The projections for 2080 show that the range edges of the species are likely to remain approximately constant, but shifts in maximum EOF are forecasted. Suitable climatic conditions tend to disappear from central areas of Amazon, although this depends on the AOGCM and the niche...
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Influence of climate variability on large rivers runoff
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Nurtaev
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In accordance with IPCC Report the influence of climate change on the water cycle will increase hydrologic variability by means of changing of precipitation patterns, melting of ice and change of runoff. Precipitation has increased in high northern latitudes and decreased in southern latitudes. This study presents an analysis of river runoffs trends in different climatic zones of the world in condition of climate change.
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Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hof, Christian
by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David C. Diehl
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Identifying what Extension professionals believe are the critical elements of a communication strategy that is most likely to encourage agricultural producers to participate in discussions of climate variability and climate change is pivotal to providing timely solutions to issues facing farmers. The current study involved interviews with 50 Extension professionals from four southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina who were engaged in ongoing work related to climate and agriculture. Respondents were asked to assess how best to engage farmers in conversations related to climate variability and climate change. Qualitative analysis showed that Extension professionals recommended avoiding content related to politics, attribution of climate change to human causes, and telling farmers what to do. Respondents recommended emphasizing adaptation strategies, climate variability over climate change, evidence that climate change exists, and the financial benefits for farmers. In addition, Extension professionals proposed several delivery methods they thought would be most effective with farmers, including delivery tailored to the characteristics of the audience, a positive overall tone, and an understanding that engagement should be viewed as a long-term process based on building relationships with farmers. The findings suggest that farmers are a potentially receptive audience on climate issues when properly approached.
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Cocoa farming households' vulnerability to climate variability in Ekiti ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
BRO OKOJIE
and protocols that control climate variability and change. Keywords: ... internal processes within the climate system. (internal ... adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the ... information and technology, social capital, ... Not accounting for.
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Climate variability, farmland value, and farmers’ perceptions of climate change
Arshad, Muhammad; Kächele, Harald; Krupnik, Timothy J.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Aravindakshan, Sreejith; Abbas, Azhar; Mehmood, Yasir; Müller, Klaus
2017-01-01
Many studies have examined the impact of climatic variability on agricultural productivity, although an understanding of these effects on farmland values and their relationship to farmers’ decisions to adapt and modify their land-use practices remains nascent in developing nations. We estimated
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Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ploubidis George B
2011-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2
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Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun
2016-05-01
Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.
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Conveying the Science of Climate Change: Explaining Natural Variability
Chanton, J.
2011-12-01
One of the main problems in climate change education is reconciling the role of humans and natural variability. The climate is always changing, so how can humans have a role in causing change? How do we reconcile and differentiate the anthropogenic effect from natural variability? This talk will offer several approaches that have been successful for the author. First, the context of climate change during the Pleistocene must be addressed. Second, is the role of the industrial revolution in significantly altering Pleistocene cycles, and introduction of the concept of the Anthropocene. Finally the positive feedbacks between climatic nudging due to increased insolation and greenhouse gas forcing can be likened to a rock rolling down a hill, without a leading cause. This approach has proven successful in presentations to undergraduates to state agencies.
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AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fedorov, Alexey [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
2017-09-06
This is the final report for the project titled "AMOC decadal variability in Earth system models: Mechanisms and climate impacts". The central goal of this one-year research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean GCMs to Earth system models. The AMOC is a key element of ocean circulation responsible for oceanic transport of heat from low to high latitudes and controlling, to a large extent, climate variations in the North Atlantic. The questions of the AMOC stability, variability and predictability, directly relevant to the questions of climate predictability, were at the center of the research work.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge Soberón
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The anisotropic structure of climatic space may cause significant (and to a large extent unappreciated non-evolutionary niche shifts. This can be seen mostly in the context of spatial transferability of ecological niche models. We explore this effect using a virtual species in the United States. We created a simple virtual species by postulating its fundamental niche as an ellipse in a two-dimensional realistic climatic space. The climatic combinations defined by the ellipse were projected in the geography of the United States and 2 regions of equal area were selected. The structure of niche in the 2 areas is compared. It is shown that the 2 regions have differently positioned subsets of the environmental space, which creates "shifts" in the realized niches despite the fact that no evolution and no biotic interactions are present. The most parsimonious hypothesis when ecological niche modeling reveals shifts in the realized niche is that environmental space is heterogeneous. Without considering differences in the structure of environmental space no speculation about niche evolution or the role of competitors should be attempted.La estructura anisotrópica del espacio climático puede causar desplazamientos significativos no evolutivos en los nichos de las especies. Este efecto poco apreciado en la literatura se manifiesta con gran claridad cuando se realizan transferencias espaciales de modelos de nicho ecológico. Se explora este efecto utilizando una especie virtual en los Estados Unidos. Se creó una especie virtual simplificada postulando su nicho fundamental en forma de una elipse en un espacio realista de 2 dimensiones. Las combinaciones climáticas definidas por la elipse se proyectaron en la geografía de los Estados Unidos y se seleccionaron 2 regiones de igual superficie espacial. Se compara la estructura del nicho en las 2 regiones, mostrando que estas 2 regiones espaciales presentan subconjuntos distintos del espacio de variables
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Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R
2014-09-15
Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013
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Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.
2004-01-01
Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same
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Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.
Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Mathewson, Paul D; Jones, Gavin M; Kearney, Michael R; Porter, Warren P
2015-12-01
When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general
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Impacts of Climate Variability on Latin American Small-scale Fisheries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Omar Defeo
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Small-scale fisheries (SSFs are social-ecological systems that play a critical role in terms of food security and poverty alleviation in Latin America. These fisheries are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic and climatic drivers acting at multiple scales. We review the effects of climate variability on Latin American SSFs, and discuss the combined effects of two additional human drivers: globalization of markets and governance. We show drastic long-term and large-scale effects of climate variability, e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies, wind intensity, sea level, and climatic indices, on SSFs. These variables, acting in concert with economic drivers, have exacerbated stock depletion rates in Latin American SSFs. The impact of these drivers varied according to the life cycle and latitudinal distribution of the target species, the characteristics of the oceanographic systems, and the inherent features of the social systems. Our review highlights the urgent need to improve management and governance systems to promote resilience as a way to cope with the increasing uncertainty about the impacts of climate and globalization of markets on Latin American SSFs.
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Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche-efficiency.
Liang, Jingjing; Zhou, Mo; Tobin, Patrick C; McGuire, A David; Reich, Peter B
2015-05-05
The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche-efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche-efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species' inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.
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Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales
Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro
2011-01-01
interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology
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Hawlitschek, Oliver; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael
2011-02-09
DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.
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Douglas, M R; Davis, M A; Amarello, M; Smith, J J; Schuett, G W; Herrmann, H-W; Holycross, A T; Douglas, M E
2016-04-01
Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N ef = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.
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Phylogenetic niche conservatism and the evolutionary basis of ecological speciation.
Pyron, R Alexander; Costa, Gabriel C; Patten, Michael A; Burbrink, Frank T
2015-11-01
Phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) typically refers to the tendency of closely related species to be more similar to each other in terms of niche than they are to more distant relatives. This has been implicated as a potential driving force in speciation and other species-richness patterns, such as latitudinal gradients. However, PNC has not been very well defined in most previous studies. Is it a pattern or a process? What are the underlying endogenous (e.g. genetic) and exogenous (e.g. ecological) factors that cause niches to be conserved? What degree of similarity is necessary to qualify as PNC? Is it possible for the evolutionary processes causing niches to be conserved to also result in niche divergence in different habitats? Here, we revisit these questions, codifying a theoretical and operational definition of PNC as a mechanistic evolutionary process resulting from several factors. We frame this both from a macroevolutionary and population-genetic perspective. We discuss how different axes of physical (e.g. geographic) and environmental (e.g. climatic) heterogeneity interact with the fundamental process of PNC to produce different outcomes of ecological speciation. We also review tests for PNC, and suggest ways that these could be improved or better utilized in future studies. Ultimately, PNC as a process has a well-defined mechanistic basis in organisms, and future studies investigating ecological speciation would be well served to consider this, and frame hypothesis testing in terms of the processes and expected patterns described herein. The process of PNC may lead to patterns where niches are conserved (more similar than expected), constrained (divergent within a limited subset of available niches), or divergent (less similar than expected), based on degree of phylogenetic relatedness between species. © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
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Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables
Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen
2017-07-01
The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from climate.copernicus.eu" target="_blank">ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Munoz, J.R.; Sailor, D.J.
1998-01-01
A new methodology relating basic climatic variables to hydroelectric generation was developed. The methodology can be implemented in large or small basins with any number of hydro plants. The method was applied to the Sacramento, Eel and Russian river basins in northern California where more than 100 hydroelectric plants are located. The final model predicts the availability of hydroelectric generation for the entire basin provided present and near past climate conditions, with about 90% accuracy. The results can be used for water management purposes or for analyzing the effect of climate variability on hydrogeneration availability in the basin. A wide range of results can be obtained depending on the climate change scenario used. (Author)
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Climate variability and yields of major staple food crops in Northern ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we ...
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Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Colman, Robert A.; Power, Scott B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
2010-06-15
to mid-latitude response seen under secular climate change. Surface albedo feedback is, however, slightly stronger under interannual variability - partly due to regions of extremely weak, or even negative, feedback over Antarctic sea ice in the transient experiment. Both long and shortwave global cloud feedbacks are essentially zero on interannual timescales, with the shortwave term also being very weak under climate change, although cloud fraction and optical property components show correlation with global temperature both under interannual variability and transient climate change. The results of this modelling study, although for a single model only, suggest that the analogues provided by interannual variability may provide some useful pointers to some aspects of climate change feedback strength, particularly for water vapour and surface albedo, but that structural differences will need to be heeded in such an analysis. (orig.)
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Climate variability: Possible changes with climate change and impacts on crop yields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mearns, L.O.
1991-01-01
A pilot study was carried out of the sensitivity of the CERES wheat model, a deterministic crop-climate model, to changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. The study was designed to determine the effect of changed temperature variance on the mean and variance of the simulated yields, to compare the effect with the effect of mean temperature changes, and to determine the interacting effects of changes in mean and variance of temperature. The CERES model was applied to 29 cropping years (1952-1980), using three different soil types and two different management practices (fully irrigated and dryland). The coefficients of variation of the yields for irrigated and dryland conditions are plotted against variance change. It was found that in both management systems, the yield response is usually greater to increases rather than decreases in variance. The combined effect of mean and variance temperature changes are most striking under irrigated conditions, with a dramatic decrease in yield variability in the high mean climate change scenario with decreased temperature variance. This suggests that the variability decrease might mitigate the effect of a mean increase in temperature. This result is not found with the dryland case, where decreased temperature variability has little impact on yield variability. 12 refs., 4 figs
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Nature Relation Between Climatic Variables and Cotton Production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zakaria M. Sawan
2014-08-01
Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of climatic variables on flower and boll production and retention in cotton (Gossypium barbadense. Also, this study investigated the relationship between climatic factors and production of flowers and bolls obtained during the development periods of the flowering and boll stage, and to determine the most representative period corresponding to the overall crop pattern. Evaporation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface soil temperature at 1800 h, and maximum air temperature, are the important climatic factors that significantly affect flower and boll production. The least important variables were found to be surface soil temperature at 0600 h and minimum temperature. There was a negative correlation between flower and boll production and either evaporation or sunshine duration, while that correlation with minimum relative humidity was positive. Higher minimum relative humidity, short period of sunshine duration, and low temperatures enhanced flower and boll formation.
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Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk
Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.
2013-12-01
In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change
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Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid
2017-10-01
Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.
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Rurinda, J.
2014-01-01
Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation
Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in
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Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...
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Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M
2017-10-05
Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.
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A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leary, N.A.
1999-01-01
The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs
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Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.
Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A
2017-05-25
Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.
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Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R
2010-05-04
The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.
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Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory
Knuth, Kevin H.; Golera, Anthony; Curry, Charles T.; Huyser, Karen A.; Kevin R. Wheeler; Rossow, William B.
2005-01-01
The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.
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Climate variability from isotope records in precipitation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grassl, H.; Latif, M.; Schotterer, U.; Gourcy, L.
2002-01-01
Selected time series from the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) revealed a close relationship to climate variability phenomena like El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) although the precipitation anomaly in the case studies of Manaus (Brazil) and Groningen (The Netherlands) is rather weak. For a sound understanding of this relationship especially in the case of Manaus, the data should include major events like the 1997/98 El Nino, however, the time series are interrupted frequently or important stations are even closed. Improvements are only possible if existing key stations and new ones (placed at 'hot spots' derived from model experiments) are supported continuously. A close link of GNIP to important scientific programmes like CLIVAR, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme seems to be indispensable for a successful continuation. (author)
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Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review
Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran
2018-02-01
Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.
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Impacts of Climate Trends and Variability on Livestock Production in Brazil
Cohn, A.; Munger, J.; Gibbs, H.
2015-12-01
Cattle systems of Brazil are of major economic and environmental importance. They occupy ¼ of the land surface of the country, account for over 15 billion USD of annual revenue through the sale of beef, leather, and milk, are closely associated with deforestation, and have been projected to substantially grow in the coming decades. Sustainable intensification of production in the sector could help to limit environmental harm from increased production, but productivity growth could be inhibited by climate change. Gauging the potential future impacts of climate change on the Brazilian livestock sector can be aided by examining past evidence of the link between climate and cattle production and productivity. We use statistical techniques to investigate the contribution of climate variability and climate change to variability in cattle system output in Brazil's municipalities over the period 1974 to 2013. We find significant impacts of both temperature and precipitation variability and temperature trends on municipality-level exports and the production of both milk and beef. Pasture productivity, represented by a vegetation index, also varies significantly with climate shocks. In some regions, losses from exposure to climate trends were of comparable magnitude to technology and/or market-driven productivity gains over the study period.
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Impacts of climate variability and change on beekeeping productivity ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study investigated impacts of climate variability and change on Beekeeping productivity in Sunya, Kijungu and Olgira villages in Kiteto District in Manyara region in Tanzania. Specific objectives of the study were to identify the contribution of honey bees to community livelihoods, to identify climate related factors which ...
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Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration
Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika
2016-01-01
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe. PMID:27092012
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Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.
Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika
2016-04-01
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.
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Akter, Rokeya; Hu, Wenbiao; Naish, Suchithra; Banu, Shahera; Tong, Shilu
2017-06-01
To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review. Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors. Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Water management to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change.
Hamdy, A.; Trisorio-Liuzzi, G.
2009-04-01
In many parts of the world, variability in climatic conditions is already resulting in major impacts. These impacts are wide ranging and the link to water management problems is obvious and profound. The know-how and the available information undoubtedly indicate that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for sectorial water uses and, in particular, the irrigation field imposing notable negative effects on food security and poverty alleviation programs in most arid and semi-arid developing countries. At the United Nations Millennium Summit, in September 2000, world leaders adopted the Millennium Development Declaration. From this declaration, the IWRM was recognised as the key concept the water sector should be using for water related development and measures and, hence, for achieving the water related MDG's. However, the potential impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability are not sufficiently addressed in the IWRM plans. Indeed, only a very limited IWRM national plans have been prepared, coping with climate variability and changes. This is mainly due to the lack of operational instruments to deal with climate change and climate variability issues. This is particularly true in developing countries where the financial, human and ecological impacts are potentially greatest and where water resources may be already highly stressed, but the capacity to cope and adapt is weakest. Climate change has now brought realities including mainly rising temperatures and increasing frequency of floods and droughts that present new challenges to be addressed by the IWRM practice. There are already several regional and international initiatives underway that focus on various aspects of water resources management those to be linked with climate changes and vulnerability issues. This is the way where the water resources
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Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef
2008-01-01
susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. M. Kunah
2016-04-01
Full Text Available The role of geomorphological ecogeographical variables have been shown, which are received by means of the digital elevation model created on the basis of remote sensing data as markers of an ecological niche of weeds on an example common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca L.. The research range chooses territory which is in settlement Vovnjanka district (the Poltava region. The range has the linear sizes of 26 kilometres in a direction from the east on the west and 15 kilometres in a direction from the north on the south, the range total area makes 390 км2. As geomorphological variables the topographical wetness index, topographic position index, mass balance index, erosion LS-factor, direct and disseminated insolation, altitude above channel network, multiresolution valley bottom flatness, multiresolution ridge top flatness index, vector ruggedness measure have been considered. It is established, that on set of the geomorphological indicators received by means of digital model of a relief, it is possible to assert, that within a separate agricultural field a wide variety of microconditions which is caused by relief features is formed. Possibly, the variation of thermal and water modes, moisture redistribution, and also productivity mechanical processings of soil and efforts under the control of number of weeds make a background in which limits there is possible a moving of weed plants, including common milkweed.
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Correlated evolution of thermal niches and functional physiology in tropical freshwater fishes.
Culumber, Zachary W; Tobler, Michael
2018-05-01
The role of ecology in phenotypic and species diversification is widely documented. Nonetheless, numerous nonadaptive processes can shape realized niches and phenotypic variation in natural populations, complicating inferences about adaptive evolution at macroevolutionary scales. We tested for evolved differences in thermal tolerances and their association with the realized thermal niche (including metrics describing diurnal and seasonal patterns of temperature extremes and variability) across a genus of tropical freshwater fishes reared in a standardized environment. There was limited evolution along the thermal niche axis associated with variation in maximum temperature and in upper thermal limits. In contrast, there was considerable diversification along the first major axis of the thermal niche associated with minimum temperatures and in lower thermal limits. Across our adaptive landscape analyses, 70% of species exhibited evidence of divergence in thermal niches. Most importantly, the first two major axes of thermal niche variation were significantly correlated with variation in lower thermal limits. Our results indicate adaptation to divergent thermal niches and adaptive evolution of related functional traits, and highlight the importance of divergence in lower thermal limits for the evolution of tropical biodiversity. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Eiserhardt, Wolf L.; Svenning, J.-C.; Baker, William J.
How fast species’ environmental tolerances can evolve is crucial for their survival prospect under climate change. Phylogenetic information can yield insights into the tempo of niche evolution. Phylogenetic community structure (PCS) complements the more widely used approach of studying niche...
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Niche restriction and conservatism in a neotropical psittacine: the case of the Puerto Rican parrot
White, Thomas H.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Dinsmore, Stephen J.; Llerandi-Roman, I. C.
2014-01-01
The factors which govern species‘ distribution and abundance are myriad, and together constitute the ecological niche of a given species. Because abiotic factors are arguably the most profound of the factors influencing niche boundaries and thus, species distributions, substantial changes in either climatic or habitat-related parameters can be expected to produce interrelated and profound niche shifts. Habitat loss and degradation can also effectively induce a de facto climate change by forcing populations to relocate to environmentally suboptimal habitats. Populations experiencing niche shifts due to range restrictions and geographic isolation become subject to a suite of factors that may act synergistically to amplify deleterious ecological effects of habitat loss. These factors tend to exert a greater influence on populations of rare or endemic species with inherently restricted ranges. The Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vittata) is an example of a tropical, insular, endemic and critically-endangered species that has suffered from extensive habitat loss and degradation over the past century, resulting in a single relict wild population restricted for more than 70 years to the montane rainforest of the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico. In this chapter, we examine the current ecological situation of this geographically and demographically isolated parrot population by reviewing the history of landscape-level changes in and around the Luquillo Mountains, and concurrent biotic and abiotic limiting factors in relation to both historical population trajectory and current prognosis for species recovery. We used a decade (2000-2009) of empirical data on parrot fledgling survival together with long-term climatological data to model effects of local climate on fledgling survival and gain insights into its influence on population growth. We also modeled hypothetical survival of parrot fledglings in the lowlands surrounding the Luquillo Mountains, areas
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Why developmental niche construction is not selective niche construction: and why it matters.
Stotz, Karola
2017-10-06
In the last decade, niche construction has been heralded as the neglected process in evolution. But niche construction is just one way in which the organism's interaction with and construction of the environment can have potential evolutionary significance. The constructed environment does not just select for , it also produces new variation. Nearly 3 decades ago, and in parallel with Odling-Smee's article 'Niche-constructing phenotypes', West and King introduced the 'ontogenetic niche' to give the phenomena of exo genetic inheritance a formal name. Since then, a range of fields in the life sciences and medicine has amassed evidence that parents influence their offspring by means other than DNA (parental effects), and proposed mechanisms for how heritable variation can be environmentally induced and developmentally regulated. The concept of 'developmental niche construction' (DNC) elucidates how a diverse range of mechanisms contributes to the transgenerational transfer of developmental resources. My most central of claims is that whereas the selective niche of niche construction theory is primarily used to explain the active role of the organism in its selective environment, DNC is meant to indicate the active role of the organism in its developmental environment. The paper highlights the differences between the construction of the selective and the developmental niche, and explores the overall significance of DNC for evolutionary theory.
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Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.
2017-01-01
How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect
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Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P
2017-03-01
How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect
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Gatti, Roberto Cazzolla
2011-01-01
A. McFayden and G.E. Hutchinson defined a niche as a multidimensional space or hypervolume within the environment that allows an individual or a species to survive, we consider niches as a fundamental ecological variable that regulate species' composition and relation in ecosystems. Successively the niche concept has been associated to the genetic term "phenotype" by MacArthurstressing the importance on what a species or a genome can show outside, either in the environmental functions or in body characteristics. Several indexes have been developed to evaluate the grade of overlapping and similarities of species' niches, even utilizing the theory of information. However, which are the factors that determine the number of species that can coexist in a determinate environment and why a generalist species do not compete until the exclusion of the remaining species to maximize its fitness, is still quite unknown. Moreover, there are few studies and theories that clearly explain why the number of niches is so variable through ecosystems and how can several species live in the same basal niche, intended in a comprehensive sense as the range of basic conditions (temperature, humidity, food-guild, etc.). Here I show that the number of niches in an ecosystem depends on the number of species present in a particular moment and that the species themselves allow the enhancement of niches in terms of space and number. I found that using a three-dimensional model as hypervolume and testing the theory on a Mediterranean, temperate and tropical forest ecosystem it is possible to demonstrate that each species plays a fundamental role in facilitating the colonization by other species by simply modifying the environment and exponentially increasing the available niches' space and number. I resumed these hypothesis, after some preliminary empiric tests, in the Biodiversity-related Niches Differentiation Theory (BNDT), stressing with these definition that the process of niches
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Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Osondu
This paper focuses on how men and women farmers perceive climatic variability in Idanre ... Poor women and their ... Climate Change, Food Security and Poverty ..... 50. 8.3. Total. 180. 100. Marital status. Single. Married. Divorced. Widowed.
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Stitch the niche - a practical philosophy and visual schematic for the niche concept
McInerny, Greg J.; Etienne, Rampal S.
2012-01-01
By over-focusing on precise definitions, ecology has produced a confused idea of the niche concept. This, our second paper, develops a practical philosophy for the niche that approaches the concept at the correct level of abstraction. We deconstruct the niche into effect and response components and
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Hira, Vashendriya V. V.; Wormer, Jill R.; Kakar, Hala; Breznik, Barbara; van der Swaan, Britt; Hulsbos, Renske; Tigchelaar, Wikky; Tonar, Zbynek; Khurshed, Mohammed; Molenaar, Remco J.; van Noorden, Cornelis J. F.
2018-01-01
In glioblastoma, a fraction of malignant cells consists of therapy-resistant glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs) residing in protective niches that recapitulate hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) niches in bone marrow. We have previously shown that HSC niche proteins stromal cell-derived factor-1α (SDF-1α),
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Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.
2012-04-01
Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.
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Xiao, Wupeng; Wang, Lei; Laws, Edward; Xie, Yuyuan; Chen, Jixin; Liu, Xin; Chen, Bingzhang; Huang, Bangqin
2018-03-01
A basic albeit elusive goal of ocean science is to predict the structure of biological communities from the multitude of environmental conditions they experience. Estimates of the realized niche-based traits (realized traits) of phytoplankton species or functional groups in temperate seas have shown that response traits can help reveal the mechanisms responsible for structuring phytoplankton communities, but such approaches have not been tested in tropical and subtropical marginal seas. Here, we used decadal-scale studies of pigment-based phytoplankton groups and environmental conditions in the South China Sea to test whether realized traits could explain the biogeographic patterns of phytoplankton variability. We estimated the mean and breadth of the phytoplankton realized niches based on responses of the group-specific phytoplankton composition to key environmental factors, and we showed that variations of major phytoplankton groups in this system can be explained by different adaptive trade-offs to constraints imposed by temperature, irradiance, and nutrient concentrations. Differences in the patterns of trade-offs clearly separated the dominant groups from one another and generated four sets of realized traits that mirrored the observed biogeographic distribution patterns. The phytoplankton realized niches and their associated traits that we characterized in the present study could help to predict responses of phytoplankton to changes in environmental conditions in the South China Sea and could be incorporated into global biogeochemical models to anticipate shifts in community structure under future climate scenarios.
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Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia
Nicolle, Marie; Debret, Maxime; Massei, Nicolas; Colin, Christophe; deVernal, Anne; Divine, Dmitry; Werner, Johannes P.; Hormes, Anne; Korhola, Atte; Linderholm, Hans W.
2018-01-01
To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ˜ 16-30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ˜ 20-30- and ˜ 50-90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice-temperature positive feedback.
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High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California
Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.
2015-12-01
Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine
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Ecker, Michaela; Brink, James; Horwitz, Liora Kolska; Scott, Louis; Lee-Thorp, Julia A.
2018-01-01
The large mammalian fauna of southern Africa is characterised by strong niche separation into grazer and browser species, with few falling into the intermediate mixed-feeder niche. Moreover, the modern fauna is reduced in species diversity compared to the Pleistocene, following the extinction of several specialized grazers in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. How did this state develop, and how might it be connected to climatic change during the Holocene? To better understand this development, we obtained extensive carbon and oxygen stable light isotope data from herbivore tooth enamel samples from Wonderwerk Cave, South Africa, spanning about 12,000-500 cal. BP. This is a unique dataset since it is the only site in the southern Kalahari with a robust chronometric record and well-preserved faunal remains for the last 12,000 years without significant gaps. Combining the stable isotopes with pollen and micromammal data from Wonderwerk Cave, we have explored shifts in the proportions of C3 and C4 plants and moisture availability. Although climate remained generally semi-arid for much of this period, the results show significant hydrological and vegetation shifts in the sequence, particularly with the strengthening of summer rainfall in the mid-Holocene. The results for the sixteen herbivore species reveal a reinforcement of the grazer-browser niche partitioning through the Holocene and shows how niche specialization follows changes in local vegetation composition. In the light of this reconstruction of the local ecology we discuss grazer extinctions, human adaptations, and the drivers behind climatic changes in the summer rainfall zone of southern Africa.
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Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability
Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.
2008-04-01
Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.
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Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011
Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang
2015-02-01
Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based
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Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.
2012-12-01
A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data
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Comparative response of Rangifer tarandus and other northern ungulates to climatic variability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert B. Weladji
2002-06-01
Full Text Available To understand the factors influencing life history traits and population dynamics, attention is increasingly being given to the importance of environmental stochasticity. In this paper, we review and discuss aspects of current knowledge concerning the effect of climatic variation (local and global on population parameters of northern ungu¬lates, with special emphasis on reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus. We also restrict ourselves to indirect effects of climate through both forage availability and quality, and insect activity. Various authors have used different weather variables; with sometime opposite trends in resulting life history traits of ungulates, and few studies show consistent effects to the same climatic variables. There is thus little consensus about which weather variables play the most sig¬nificant role influencing ungulate population parameters. This may be because the effects of weather on ungulate pop¬ulation dynamics and life history traits are scale dependent and it is difficult to isolate climatic effects from density dependent factors. This confirms the complexity of the relationship between environment and ecosystem. We point out limits of comparability between systems and the difficulty of generalizing about the effect of climate change broadly across northern systems, across species and even within species. Furthermore, insect harassment appears to be a key climate-related factor for the ecology of reindeer/caribou that has been overlooked in the literature of climatic effects on large herbivores. In light of this, there is a need for further studies of long time series in assessing effects of climate variability on reindeer/caribou.
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Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.
Calizza, Edoardo; Careddu, Giulio; Sporta Caputi, Simona; Rossi, Loreto; Costantini, Maria Letizia
2018-01-01
Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea) and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential climate-driven changes
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Surfing wave climate variability
Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.
2014-10-01
International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.
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Cachera, M.; Ernande, B.; Villanueva, M. C.; Lefebvre, S.
2017-02-01
Individual diet variation (i.e. diet variation among individuals) impacts intra- and inter-specific interactions. Investigating its sources and relationship with species trophic niche organization is important for understanding community structure and dynamics. Individual diet variation may increase with intra-specific phenotypic (or "individual state") variation and habitat variability, according to Optimal Foraging Theory (OFT), and with species trophic niche width, according to the Niche Variation Hypothesis (NVH). OFT proposes "proximate sources" of individual diet variation such as variations in habitat or size whereas NVH relies on "ultimate sources" related to the competitive balance between intra- and inter-specific competitions. The latter implies as a corollary that species trophic niche overlap, taken as inter-specific competition measure, decreases as species niche width and individual niche variation increase. We tested the complementary predictions of OFT and NVH in a marine fish assemblage using stomach content data and associated trophic niche metrics. The NVH predictions were tested between species of the assemblage and decomposed into a between- and a within-functional group component to assess the potential influence of species' ecological function. For most species, individual diet variation and niche overlap were consistently larger than expected. Individual diet variation increased with intra-specific variability in individual state and habitat, as expected from OFT. It also increased with species niche width but in compliance with the null expectation, thus not supporting the NVH. In contrast, species niche overlap increased significantly less than null expectation with both species niche width and individual diet variation, supporting NVH corollary. The between- and within-functional group components of the NVH relationships were consistent with those between species at the assemblage level. Changing the number of prey categories used to
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Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937
Jennings, Julia A.; Gray, Clark L.
2014-01-01
Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century. PMID:25937689
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The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore.
Pinto, Edna; Coelho, Micheline; Oliver, Leuda; Massad, Eduardo
2011-12-01
In this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC₁ (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC₂ (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10°C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.
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An introduction to niche construction theory.
Laland, Kevin; Matthews, Blake; Feldman, Marcus W
Niche construction refers to the modification of selective environments by organisms. Theoretical and empirical studies of niche construction are increasing in importance as foci in evolutionary ecology. This special edition presents theoretical and empirical research that illustrates the significance of niche construction to the field. Here we set the scene for the following papers by (1) discussing the history of niche construction research, (2) providing clear definitions that distinguish niche construction from related concepts such as ecosystem engineering and the extended phenotype, (3) providing a brief summary of the findings of niche construction research, (4) discussing the contribution of niche construction and ecological inheritance to (a) expanded notions of inheritance, and (b) the extended evolutionary synthesis, and (5) briefly touching on some of the issues that underlie the controversies over niche construction.
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Temporal changes in climatic variables and their impact on crop yields in southwestern China.
Liu, Hong-Bin; Gou, Yu; Wang, Hong-Ye; Li, Hong-Mei; Wu, Wei
2014-08-01
Knowledge of variability in climatic variables changes and its impact on crop yields is important for farmers and policy makers, especially in southwestern China where rainfed agriculture is dominant. In the current study, six climatic parameters (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, temperature difference, and rainy days) and aggregated yields of three main crops (rice: Oryza sativa L., oilseed rape: Brassica napus L., and tobacco: Nicotiana tabacum L.) during 1985-2010 were collected and analyzed for Chongqing-a large agricultural municipality of China. Climatic variables changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test. Increased mean temperature and temperature difference and decreased relative humidity were found in annual and oilseed rape growth time series (Pchanges in climatic variables in this region. Yield of rice increased with rainfall (Pclimatic variables to crop yields. Temperature difference and sunshine hours had higher direct and indirect effects via other climatic variables on yields of rice and tobacco. Mean temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and temperature difference had higher direct and indirect effects via others on yield of oilseed rape.
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Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sara Amirpour Haredasht
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.
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Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.
Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie
2013-01-28
The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.
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Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent climate variability
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta
2016-01-01
Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent climate variability remain a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information...... exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance (TSI...... ) and cosmic ray flux (CR); El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding climate signals. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO 2 (~24%), CH 4 (~19%) and volcanic aerosols (~23...
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Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim
2016-04-01
The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).
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Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability
Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.
2018-01-01
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.
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Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.
Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S
2018-01-17
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.
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Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors
Houle, Daniel
2014-01-01
Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244
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Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana
Amikuzuno, J.
2012-12-01
Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.
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Climate variability and Great Plains agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosenberg, N.J.; Katz, L.A.
1991-01-01
The ways in which inhabitants of the Great Plains, including Indians, early settlers, and 20th century farmers, have adapted to climate changes on the Great Plains are explored. The climate of the Great Plains, because of its variability and extremes, can be very stressful to plants, animals and people. It is suggested that agriculture and society on the Great Plains have, during the last century, become less vulnerable to the stresses imposed by climate. Opinions as to the sustainability of agriculture on the Great Plains vary substantially. Lockeretz (1981) suggests that large scale, high cost technologies have stressed farmers by creating surpluses and by requiring large investments. Opie (1989) sees irrigation as a climate substitute, however he stresses that the Ogallala aquifer must inevitably become depleted. Deborah and Frank Popper (1987) believe that farming on the Plains is unsustainable, and destruction of shelterbelts, out-migration of the rural population and environmental problems will lead to total collapse. With global warming, water in the Great Plains is expected to become scarcer, and although improvements in irrigation efficiency may slow depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, ultimately the acreage under irrigation must decrease to levels that can be sustained by natural recharge and reliable surface flows. 23 refs., 2 figs
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Lipatov, Mikhail; Brown, Melissa J.; Feldman, Marcus W.
2011-01-01
With introduction of social niche effects into a model of cultural change, the frequency of a practice cannot predict the frequency of its underlying belief. The combination of a general model with empirical data from a specific case illustrates the importance of collaboration between modellers and field researchers, and identifies the type of quantitative data necessary for analysing case studies. Demographic data from colonial-period household registers in Taiwan document a shift in marriage form within 40 years, from a mixture of uxorilocal marriages and virilocal marriages to the latter's dominance. Ethnographic data indicate marriage-related beliefs, costs, ethnic effects and colonial policies as well as the importance of horizontal cultural transmission. We present a formal model for the effects of moral beliefs about marriage and a population economic index on the decline of uxorilocal marriage. We integrate empirical marriage rates and an estimated economic index to produce five projections of the historical frequencies of one belief. These projections demonstrate how economic development may affect a cultural niche. They also indicate the need for future research on the relationship between wealth and cultural variability, the motivational force of cultural versus social factors, and the process of cultural niche construction. PMID:21320903
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Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Nicolle
2018-01-01
Full Text Available To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ∼ 16–30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ∼ 20–30- and ∼ 50–90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice–temperature positive feedback.
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Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Engelbrecht, FA
2011-12-01
Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...
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L'hérault, Vincent; Franke, Alastair; Lecomte, Nicolas; Alogut, Adam; Bêty, Joël
2013-09-01
While intra-population variability in resource use is ubiquitous, little is known of how this measure of niche diversity varies in space and its role in population dynamics. Here we examined how heterogeneous breeding environments can structure intra-population niche variation in both resource use and reproductive output. We investigated intra-population niche variation in the Arctic tundra ecosystem, studying peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius, White) breeding within a terrestrial-marine gradient near Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada. Using stable isotope analysis, we found that intra-population niches varied at the individual level; we examined within-nest and among-nest variation, though only the latter varied along the terrestrial-marine gradient (i.e., increased among-nest variability among birds nesting within the marine environment, indicating higher degree of specialization). Terrestrial prey species (small herbivores and insectivores) were consumed by virtually all falcons. Falcons nesting within the marine environment made use of marine prey (sea birds), but depended heavily on terrestrial prey (up to 90% of the diet). Using 28-years of peregrine falcon nesting data, we found a positive relationship between the proportion of terrestrial habitat surrounding nest sites and annual nestling production, but no relationship with the likelihood of successfully rearing at least one nestling reaching 25 days old. Annually, successful inland breeders raised 0.47 more young on average compared to offshore breeders, which yields potential fitness consequences for this long-living species. The analyses of niche and reproductive success suggest a potential breeding cost for accessing distant terrestrial prey, perhaps due to additional traveling costs, for those individuals with marine nest site locations. Our study indicates how landscape heterogeneity can generate proximate (niche variation) and ultimate (reproduction) consequences on a population of generalist
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Climate variability impacts on rice crop production in pakistan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shakoor, U.; Saboor, A.; Baig, I.
2015-01-01
The climate variability has affected the agriculture production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate changes are believed to have declining effects towards crop production in Pakistan. This study carries an empirical investigation of the effects of climate change on rice crop of Pakistan by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables from 1980 to 2013 has been used. Results confirmed that rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production. Variation in mean minimum temperature brought about seven percent increase in rice productivity as shown by Variance Decomposition. Mean precipitation and mean temperature would increase rice production but simulations scenarios for 2030 confirmed that much increase in rainfall and mean temperature in long run will negatively affect rice production in future. It is therefore important to follow adequate policy action to safeguard crop productions from disastrous effects. Development of varieties resistant to high temperatures as well as droughts will definitely enhance resilience of rice crop in Pakistan. (author)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Johann Mathias Housset
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Tree species responses to climate change will be greatly influenced by their evolutionary potential and their phenotypic plasticity. Investigating tree-rings responses to climate and population genetics at the regional scale is therefore crucial in assessing the tree behaviour to climate change. This study combined in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics over a latitudinal gradient and compared the variations between the two at the intra- and inter-population levels. This approach was applied on the northern marginal populations of Thuja occidentalis (eastern white-cedar in the Canadian boreal forest. We aimed first to assess the radial growth variability (response functional trait within populations across the gradient and to compare it with the genetic diversity (microsatellites. Second, we investigated the variability in the growth response to climate at the regional scale through the radial growth-climate relationships, and tested its correlation with environmental variables and population genetic structure. Model selection based on the Akaike Information Criteria revealed that the growth synchronicity between pairs of trees of a population covariates with both the genetic diversity of this population and the amount of precipitation (inverse correlation, although these variables only explained a small fraction of the observed variance. At the regional scale, variance partitioning and partial redundancy analysis indicate that the growth response to climate was greatly modulated by stand environmental variables, suggesting predominant plastic variations in growth-response to climate. Combining in situ dendroclimatology and population genetics is a promising way to investigate species’ response capacity to climate change in natural stands. We stress the need to control for local climate and site conditions effects on dendroclimatic response to climate to avoid misleading conclusions regarding the associations with genetic variables.
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An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability
Horton, Radley M.
Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even
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Jänes, Holger; Herkül, Kristjan; Kotta, Jonne
2017-10-01
Knowledge and understanding of geographic distributions of species is crucial for many aspects in ecology, conservation, policy making and management. In order to reach such an understanding, it is important to know abiotic variables that impact and drive distributions of native and non-native species. We used an existing long-term macrobenthos database for species presence-absence information and biomass estimates at different environmental gradients in the northern Baltic Sea. Region specific abiotic variables (e.g. salinity, depth) were derived from previously constructed bathymetric and hydrodynamic models. Multidimensional ordination techniques were then applied to investigate potential niche space separation between all native and non-native invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea. Such an approach allowed to obtain data rich and robust estimates of the current native and non-native species distributions and outline important abiotic parameters influencing the observed pattern. The results showed clear niche space separation between native and non-native species. Non-native species were situated in an environmental space characterized by reduced salinity, high temperatures, high proportion of soft seabed and decreased depth and wave exposure whereas native species displayed an opposite pattern. Different placement of native and non-native species along the studied environmental niche space is likely to be explained by the differences in their evolutionary history, human mediated activities and geological youth of the Baltic Sea. The results of this study can provide early warnings and effectively outline coastal areas in the northern Baltic Sea that are prone to further range expansion of non-native species as climate change is expected to significantly reduce salinity and increase temperature in wide coastal areas, both supporting the disappearance of native and appearance of non-native species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Guo, Wen-Yong; Lambertini, Carla; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Meyerson, Laura A; Brix, Hans
2013-11-01
After its introduction into North America, Euro-Asian Phragmites australis became an aggressive invasive wetland grass along the Atlantic coast of North America. Its distribution range has since expanded to the middle, south and southwest of North America, where invasive P. australis has replaced millions of hectares of native plants in inland and tidal wetlands. Another P. australis invasion from the Mediterranean region is simultaneously occurring in the Gulf region of the United States and some countries in South America. Here, we analysed the occurrence records of the two Old World invasive lineages of P. australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion; and (iii) the current potential distribution of these two lineages. We detected local niche shifts along the East Coast of North America and the Gulf Coast of the United States for Haplotype M and around the Mississippi Delta and Florida of the United States for Med. The new niche of the introduced Haplotype M accounts for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics-subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> ca. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20th century, global warming and human-made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are ongoing and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution ranges of the two lineages may diverge from the potential distribution ranges detected in this study. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Language and other artifacts: socio-cultural dynamics of niche construction.
Sinha, Chris
2015-01-01
Niche construction theory is a relatively new approach in evolutionary biology that seeks to integrate an ecological dimension into the Darwinian theory of evolution by natural selection. It is regarded by many evolutionary biologists as providing a significant revision of the Neo-Darwinian modern synthesis that unified Darwin's theory of natural and sexual selection with 20th century population genetics. Niche construction theory has been invoked as a processual mediator of social cognitive evolution and of the emergence and evolution of language. I argue that language itself can be considered as a biocultural niche and evolutionary artifact. I provide both a general analysis of the cognitive and semiotic status of artifacts, and a formal analysis of language as a social and semiotic institution, based upon a distinction between the fundamental semiotic relations of "counting as" and "standing for." I explore the consequences for theories of language and language learning of viewing language as a biocultural niche. I suggest that not only do niches mediate organism-organism interactions, but also that organisms mediate niche-niche interactions in ways that affect evolutionary processes, with the evolution of human infancy and childhood as a key example. I argue that language as a social and semiotic system is not only grounded in embodied engagements with the material and social-interactional world, but also grounds a sub-class of artifacts of particular significance in the cultural history of human cognition. Symbolic cognitive artifacts materially and semiotically mediate human cognition, and are not merely informational repositories, but co-agentively constitutive of culturally and historically emergent cognitive domains. I provide examples of the constitutive cognitive role of symbolic cognitive artifacts drawn from my research with my colleagues on cultural and linguistic conceptualizations of time, and their cultural variability. I conclude by reflecting on
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Language and other artifacts: socio-cultural dynamics of niche construction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chris eSinha
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Niche construction theory is a relatively new approach in evolutionary biology that seeks to integrate an ecological dimension into the Darwinian theory of evolution by natural selection. It is regarded by many evolutionary biologists as providing a significant revision of the Neo-Darwinian modern synthesis that unified Darwin’s theory of natural and sexual selection with 20th century population genetics. Niche construction theory has been invoked as a processual mediator of social cognitive evolution and of the emergence and evolution of language. I argue that language itself can be considered as a biocultural niche and evolutionary artifact. I provide both a general analysis of the cognitive and semiotic status of artifacts, and a formal analysis of language as a social and semiotic institution, based upon a distinction between the fundamental semiotic relations of counting as and standing for. I explore the consequences for theories of language and language learning of viewing language as a biocultural niche. I suggest that not only do niches mediate organism-organism interactions, but also that organisms mediate niche-niche interactions in ways that affect evolutionary processes, with the evolution of human infancy and childhood as a key example. I argue that language as a social and semiotic system is not only grounded in embodied engagements with the material and social-interactional world, but also grounds a sub-class of artifacts of particular significance in the cultural history of human cognition. Symbolic cognitive artifacts materially and semiotically mediate human cognition, and are not merely informational repositories, but co-agentively constitutive of culturally and historically emergent cognitive domains. I provide examples of the constitutive cognitive role of symbolic cognitive artifacts drawn from my research with my colleagues on cultural and linguistic conceptualizations of time, and their cultural variability. I conclude
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Kolanowska, Marta; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Kras, Marta; Dudek, Magdalena; Konowalik, Kamil
2016-01-01
The location of possible glacial refugia of six Apostasioideae representatives is estimated based on ecological niche modeling analysis. The distribution of their suitable niches during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is compared with their current potential and documented geographical ranges. The climatic factors limiting the studied species occurrences are evaluated and the niche overlap between the studied orchids is assessed and discussed. The predicted niche occupancy profiles and reconstruction of ancestral climatic tolerances suggest high level of phylogenetic niche conservatism within Apostasioideae.
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Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Climate variability and change have been implicated to have significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance in tropical sub-humid climatic zone. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain uncertain. In this study, records of crop yields and ...
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Building resilience to climate variability in Uganda's “cattle corridor ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
2016-04-27
Apr 27, 2016 ... Extensive areas of sub-Saharan, particularly East Africa, are vulnerable to the long-term consequences of climate change and the short-term increase in climate variability. With IDRC support, researchers from the Africa Innovations Institute set out to find ways to enhance the resilience of poor rural ...
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Maldonado, Karin; Bozinovic, Francisco; Rojas, José M; Sabat, Pablo
2011-01-01
The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) states that species are geographically more widespread at higher latitudes because individuals have a broader range of physiological tolerance or phenotypic flexibility as latitude and climatic variability increase. However, it remains unclear to what extent climatic variability or latitude, acting on the phenotype, account for any observed geographical gradient in mean range size. In this study, we analyzed the physiological flexibility within the CVH framework by using an intraspecific population experimental approach. We tested for a positive relationship between digestive-tract flexibility (i.e., morphology and enzyme activities) and latitude and climatic and natural diet variability in populations of rufous-collared sparrows (Zonotrichia capensis) captured in desert (27°S), Mediterranean (33°S), and cold-temperate (41°S) sites in Chile. In accordance with the CVH, we observed a positive relationship between the magnitude of digestive-tract flexibility and environmental variability but not latitude. The greatest digestive flexibility was observed in birds at middle latitudes, which experience the most environmental variability (a Mediterranean climate), whereas individuals from the most stable climates (desert and cold-temperate) exhibited little or no digestive-tract flexibility in response to experimental diets. Our findings support the idea that latitudinal gradients in geographical ranges may be strongly affected by the action of regional features, which makes it difficult to find general patterns in the distribution of species.
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Climate variability and vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua
C. Herrera (Carlos); R. Ruben (Ruerd); A.G. Dijkstra (Geske)
2018-01-01
textabstractThis study considers the effect of climate variability on vulnerability to poverty in Nicaragua. It discusses how such vulnerability could be measured and which heterogeneous effects can be expected. A multilevel empirical framework is applied, linking per capita consumption
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The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil
Camargo,Marcelo Bento Paes de
2010-01-01
The climatic variability is the main factor responsible for the oscillations and frustrations of the coffee grain yield in Brazil. The relationships between the climatic parameters and the agricultural production are quite complex, because environmental factors affect the growth and the development of the plants under different forms during the growth stages of the coffee crop. Agrometeorological models related to the growth, development and productivity can supply information for the soil wa...
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Traore, B.; Wijk, van M.T.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Corbeels, M.; Rufino, M.C.; Giller, K.E.
2015-01-01
Agricultural production in the Sudano–Sahelian zone of west Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. The present study aimed to understand farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change and to evaluate adaptation options together with farmers,
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Cohn, A.; Bragança, A.; Jeffries, G. R.
2017-12-01
An increasing share of global agricultural production can be found in the humid tropics. Therefore, an improved understanding of the mechanisms governing variability in the output of tropical agricultural systems is of increasing importance for food security including through climate change adaptation. Yet, the long window over which many tropical crops can be sown, the diversity of crop varieties and management practices combine to challenge inference into climate risk to cropping output in analyses of tropical crop-climate sensitivity employing administrative data. In this paper, we leverage a newly developed spatially explicit dataset of soybean yields in Brazil to combat this problem. The dataset was built by training a model of remotely-sensed vegetation index data and land cover classification data using a rich in situ dataset of soybean yield and management variables collected over the period 2006 to 2016. The dataset contains soybean yields by plant date, cropping frequency, and maturity group for each 5km grid cell in Brazil. We model variation in these yields using an approach enabling the estimation of the influence of management factors on the sensitivity of soybean yields to variability in: cumulative solar radiation, extreme degree days, growing degree days, flooding rain in the harvest period, and dry spells in the rainy season. We find strong variation in climate sensitivity by management class. Planting date and maturity group each explained a great deal more variation in yield sensitivity than did cropping frequency. Brazil collects comparatively fine spatial resolution yield data. But, our attempt to replicate our results using administrative soy yield data revealed substantially lesser crop-climate sensitivity; suggesting that previous analyses employing administrative data may have underestimated climate risk to tropical soy production.
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Building resilience to climate variability in Uganda's “cattle corridor ...
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
2 déc. 2014 ... Extensive areas of sub-Saharan, particularly East Africa, are vulnerable to the long-term consequences of climate change and the short-term increase in climate variability. With IDRC support, researchers from the Africa Innovations Institute set out to find ways to enhance the resilience of poor rural ...
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Beauregard, Frieda; de Blois, Sylvie
2014-01-01
Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential
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Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate.
Pendergrass, Angeline G; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M
2017-12-21
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21 st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3-4% K -1 globally, 4-5% K -1 over land and 2-4% K -1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.
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Visser, Vernon; Molofsky, Jane
2015-01-01
• Polyploidization frequently results in the creation of new plant species, the establishment of which is thought to often be facilitated by ecological niche differentiation from the diploid species. We tested this hypothesis using the cosmopolitan grass genus Phalaris (Poaceae), consisting of 19 species that range from diploid to tetraploid to hexaploid. Specifically, we tested whether (1) polyploids occupy more extreme environments and/or (2) have broader niche breadths and/or (3) whether the polyploid species' distributions indicate a niche shift from diploid species.• We employed a bootstrapping approach using distribution data for each species and eight environmental variables to investigate differences between species in the means, extremes, and breadths of each environmental variable. We used a kernel smoothing technique to quantify niche overlap between species.• Although we found some support for the three hypotheses for a few diploid-polyploid pairs and for specific environmental variables, none of these hypotheses were generally supported.• Our results suggest that these commonly held hypotheses about the effects of polyploidization on ecological distributions are not universally applicable. Correlative biogeographic studies like ours provide a necessary first step for suggesting specific hypotheses that require experimental verification. A combination of genetic, physiological, and ecological studies will be required to achieve a better understanding of the role of polyploidization in niche evolution. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.
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Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moore, A.M. [Bureau of Meterology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)
1995-04-01
A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.
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Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Bucha, Václav
2002-01-01
Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. S. R. Pausata
2009-09-01
Full Text Available Using four different climate models, we investigate sea level pressure variability in the extratropical North Atlantic in the preindustrial climate (1750 AD and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyrs before present in order to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation can affect signals recorded in climate proxies.
In general, the models exhibit a significant reduction in interannual variance of sea level pressure at the LGM compared to pre-industrial simulations and this reduction is concentrated in winter. For the preindustrial climate, all models feature a similar leading mode of sea level pressure variability that resembles the leading mode of variability in the instrumental record: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. In contrast, the leading mode of sea level pressure variability at the LGM is model dependent, but in each model different from that in the preindustrial climate. In each model, the leading (NAO-like mode of variability explains a smaller fraction of the variance and also less absolute variance at the LGM than in the preindustrial climate.
The models show that the relationship between atmospheric variability and surface climate (temperature and precipitation variability change in different climates. Results are model-specific, but indicate that proxy signals at the LGM may be misinterpreted if changes in the spatial pattern and seasonality of surface climate variability are not taken into account. -
Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.
Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T
2008-11-13
Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.
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Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model
Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho
2016-06-01
Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.
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Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability
Ding, W.; Zhang, C.; Li, Y.; Tang, Y.; Wang, D.; Xu, B.
2017-12-01
Hydrologic responses to climate variability and change are important for human society. Here we test the hypothesis that natural catchments utilize hedging strategies for evapotranspiration and water storage carryover with uncertain future precipitation. The hedging strategy for evapotranspiration in catchments under different levels of water availability is analytically derived from the economic perspective. It is found that there exists hedging between evapotranspiration for current and future only with a portion of water availability. Observation data sets of 160 catchments in the United States covering the period from 1983 to 2003 demonstrate the existence of hedging in catchment hydrology and validate the proposed hedging strategies. We also find that more water is allocated to carryover storage for hedging against the future evapotranspiration risk in the catchments with larger aridity indexes or with larger uncertainty in future precipitation, i.e., long-term climate and precipitation variability control the degree of hedging.
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Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro; Peterson, A Townsend; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Ramsey, Janine M
2014-10-01
The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA) triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida) diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex) are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.
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Lee, Jin-Won; Noh, Hee-Jin; Lee, Yunkyoung; Kwon, Young-Soo; Kim, Chang-Hoe; Yoo, Jeong-Chil
2014-09-01
Since obligate avian brood parasites depend completely on the effort of other host species for rearing their progeny, the availability of hosts will be a critical resource for their life history. Circumstantial evidence suggests that intense competition for host species may exist not only within but also between species. So far, however, few studies have demonstrated whether the interspecific competition really occurs in the system of avian brood parasitism and how the nature of brood parasitism is related to their niche evolution. Using the occurrence data of five avian brood parasites from two sources of nationwide bird surveys in South Korea and publically available environmental/climatic data, we identified their distribution patterns and ecological niches, and applied species distribution modeling to infer the effect of interspecific competition on their spatial distribution. We found that the distribution patterns of five avian brood parasites could be characterized by altitude and climatic conditions, but overall their spatial ranges and ecological niches extensively overlapped with each other. We also found that the predicted distribution areas of each species were generally comparable to the realized distribution areas, and the numbers of individuals in areas where multiple species were predicted to coexist showed positive relationships among species. In conclusion, despite following different coevolutionary trajectories to adapt to their respect host species, five species of avian brood parasites breeding in South Korea occupied broadly similar ecological niches, implying that they tend to conserve ancestral preferences for ecological conditions. Furthermore, our results indicated that contrary to expectation interspecific competition for host availability between avian brood parasites seemed to be trivial, and thus, play little role in shaping their spatial distributions and ecological niches. Future studies, including the complete ranges of avian brood
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Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Latif, M.; Barnett, T.P.
1994-01-01
The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America is investigated by analyzing data from a multi-decadal integration with a state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales. (orig.)
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Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records
Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.
2003-01-01
Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.
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X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman
2010-01-01
The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Menberu Teshome
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Climate variability is the fluctuation of climatic elements from the normal or baseline values. Agrarian communities are the most sensitive social groups to climate variability and associate extreme weather-induced hazards due to the fact that climate variability affects the two most important direct agricultural production inputs, such as rainfall and temperature. As Ethiopia is heavily dependent on agriculture its economic development is being hindered by climate variability coupled with many other deriving forces. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine climate variability, local communities’ perceptions and land management strategies to reduce the adverse impact of climate variability in Lay Gayint Woreda, Ethiopia. Both primary and secondary data were used to complete this study. Primary data were collected and analyzed from a total of 200 randomly selected respondents reside in different agro-ecological areas. Metrology data were gathered from Nefas Mewcha Station from the years 1979 to 2010. Standardized rainfall anomaly index (SRAI, crop diversification index (CDI and other descriptive statistical techniques were used to analyze the data. The results obtained from the climate data revealed an increase in temperature, and decrease and/or erratic in rainfall distribution. Time series SRAI from 1979 to 2010 indicates that 2002 and 2008 were characterized by extreme and severe dry conditions in order of importance with high impact on crop yields whist only 1984 and 1990 received near normal rainfall amount. Similarly, the survey result reveals that out of the total household heads, 87.5 % perceived that there was an increase in temperature over the last 20 years. The survey result also disclosed that significant numbers of households are more likely to adopt different land management strategies to reduce the negative impact of climate variability. Constructing terraces and check dams as well as planting trees were the major
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Spatiotemporal modes of climatic variability: building blocks of complex networks?
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Vejmelka, Martin; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Paluš, Milan
2012-01-01
Roč. 14, - (2012), s. 14275 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. 22.04.2012-27.04.2012, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : climate variability * dimensionality reduction * principal component analysis * surrogate data * climate network Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
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Niche energy markets in rural areas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walsh, M.; McCarthy, S.
1996-01-01
The objective of this project is the development of a standard methodology for integrating non-food crops in rural areas with niche energy markets. This has involved a number of steps including (i) identification of 3 niche markets for energy crops which are of common interest to the partners, (ii) application of the standard costing methodology to investigate these three niche markets and (iii) comparison of the results from this work in three workshops (one for each market). Three tightly defined niche markets were identified; these were chosen following an examination of the national energy marekts in each of the partners countries (Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, UK, Greece and Portugal). This paper gives an overview of the national energy markets which were examined. The three niche markets are introduced and the reasons for their selection given. The application of the methodology to each of the niche markets is presented along with the conclusions of the partners regarding the niche markets. (Author)
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Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.
2017-01-01
Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable
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Time- and depth-wise trophic niche shifts in Antarctic benthos.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edoardo Calizza
Full Text Available Climate change is expected to affect resource-consumer interactions underlying stability in polar food webs. Polar benthic organisms have adapted to the marked seasonality characterising their habitats by concentrating foraging and reproductive activity in summer months, when inputs from sympagic and pelagic producers increase. While this enables the persistence of biodiverse food webs, the mechanisms underlying changes in resource use and nutrient transfer are poorly understood. Thus, our understanding of how temporal and spatial variations in the supply of resources may affect food web structure and functioning is limited. By means of C and N isotopic analyses of two key Antarctic benthic consumers (Adamussium colbecki, Bivalvia, and Sterechinus neumayeri, Echinoidea and Bayesian mixing models, we describe changes in trophic niche and nutrient transfer across trophic levels associated with the long- and short-term diet and body size of specimens sampled in midsummer in both shallow and deep waters. Samplings occurred soon after the sea-ice broke up at Tethys Bay, an area characterised by extreme seasonality in sea-ice coverage and productivity in the Ross Sea. In the long term, the trophic niche was broader and variation between specimens was greater, with intermediate-size specimens generally consuming a higher number of resources than small and large specimens. The coupling of energy channels in the food web was consequently more direct than in the short term. Sediment and benthic algae were more frequently consumed in the long term, before the sea-ice broke up, while consumers specialised on sympagic algae and plankton in the short term. Regardless of the time scale, sympagic algae were more frequently consumed in shallow waters, while plankton was more frequently consumed in deep waters. Our results suggest a strong temporal relationship between resource availability and the trophic niche of benthic consumers in Antarctica. Potential
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Climate variability and vadose zone controls on damping of transient recharge
Corona, Claudia R.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Maurer, Edwin P.
2017-01-01
Increasing demand on groundwater resources motivates understanding of the controls on recharge dynamics so model predictions under current and future climate may improve. Here we address questions about the nonlinear behavior of flux variability in the vadose zone that may explain previously reported teleconnections between global-scale climate variability and fluctuations in groundwater levels. We use hundreds of HYDRUS-1D simulations in a sensitivity analysis approach to evaluate the damping depth of transient recharge over a range of periodic boundary conditions and vadose zone geometries and hydraulic parameters that are representative of aquifer systems of the conterminous United States (U.S). Although the models were parameterized based on U.S. aquifers, findings from this study are applicable elsewhere that have mean recharge rates between 3.65 and 730 mm yr–1. We find that mean infiltration flux, period of time varying infiltration, and hydraulic conductivity are statistically significant predictors of damping depth. The resulting framework explains why some periodic infiltration fluxes associated with climate variability dampen with depth in the vadose zone, resulting in steady-state recharge, while other periodic surface fluxes do not dampen with depth, resulting in transient recharge. We find that transient recharge in response to the climate variability patterns could be detected at the depths of water levels in most U.S. aquifers. Our findings indicate that the damping behavior of transient infiltration fluxes is linear across soil layers for a range of texture combinations. The implications are that relatively simple, homogeneous models of the vadose zone may provide reasonable estimates of the damping depth of climate-varying transient recharge in some complex, layered vadose zone profiles.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emmanuel K. Derbile
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This article analysed vulnerability of smallholder agriculture to climate variability, particularly the alternating incidences of drought and heavy precipitation events in Ghana. Although there is an unmet need for understanding the linkages between climate change and livelihoods, the urgent need for climate change adaptation planning (CCAP in response to climate change makes vulnerability assessment even more compelling in development research. The data for analysis were collected from two complementary studies. These included a regional survey in the Upper West Region and an in-depth study in three selected communities in the Sissala East District. The results showed that smallholder agriculture is significantly vulnerable to climate variability in the region and that three layers of vulnerability can be identified in a ladder of vulnerability. Firstly, farmers are confronted with the double tragedy of droughts and heavy precipitation events, which adversely affect both crops and livestock. Secondly, farmers have to decide on crops for adaptation, but each option – whether indigenous crops, new early-maturing crops or genetically modified crops – predisposes farmers to a different set of risks. Finally, the overall impact is a higher-level vulnerability, namely the risk of total livelihood failure and food insecurity. The article recommended CCAP and an endogenous development (ED approach to addressing agriculture vulnerability to climate variability within the framework of decentralisation and local governance in Ghana. Keywords: Climate variability; agriculture; vulnerability; endogenous development; Ghana
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Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European...... countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS......: The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high...
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Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie
2010-05-01
Pollen as well as stable isotopes have great potential as climate proxy data. While variability in these proxy data is frequently assumed to reflect climate variability, other factors than climate, including human impact and statistical noise, can often not be excluded as primary cause for the observed variability. Multiproxy studies offer the opportunity to test different drivers by providing different lines of evidence for environmental change such as climate variability and human impact. In this multiproxy study we use pollen and peat humification to evaluate to which extent stable oxygen and carbon isotope series from the peat bog "Dürres Maar" reflect human impact rather than climate variability. For times before strong anthropogenic vegetation change, isotope series from Dürres Maar were used to validate quantitative reconstructions based on pollen. Our study site is the kettle hole peat bog "Dürres Maar" in the Eifel low mountain range, Germany (450m asl), which grew 12m during the last 10,000 years. Pollen was analysed with a sum of at least 1000 terrestrial pollen grains throughout the profile to minimize statistical effects on the reconstructions. A recently developed probabilistic indicator taxa method ("pdf-method") was used for the quantitative climate estimates (January and July temperature) based on pollen. For isotope analysis, attention was given to use monospecific Sphagnum leaves whenever possible, reducing the potential of a species effect and any potential artefact that can originate from selective degradation of different morphological parts of Sphagnum plants (Moschen et al., 2009). Pollen at "Dürres Maar" reflect the variable and partly strong human impact on vegetation during the last 4000 years. Stable isotope time series were apparently not influenced by human impact at this site. This highlights the potential of stable isotope investigations from peat for climatic interpretation, because stable isotope series from lacustrine
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Impacts of Austrian Climate Variability on Honey Bee Mortality
Switanek, Matt; Brodschneider, Robert; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo
2015-04-01
Global food production, as it is today, is not possible without pollinators such as the honey bee. It is therefore alarming that honey bee populations across the world have seen increased mortality rates in the last few decades. The challenges facing the honey bee calls into question the future of our food supply. Beside various infectious diseases, Varroa destructor is one of the main culprits leading to increased rates of honey bee mortality. Varroa destructor is a parasitic mite which strongly depends on honey bee brood for reproduction and can wipe out entire colonies. However, climate variability may also importantly influence honey bee breeding cycles and bee mortality rates. Persistent weather events affects vegetation and hence foraging possibilities for honey bees. This study first defines critical statistical relationships between key climate indicators (e.g., precipitation and temperature) and bee mortality rates across Austria, using 6 consecutive years of data. Next, these leading indicators, as they vary in space and time, are used to build a statistical model to predict bee mortality rates and the respective number of colonies affected. Using leave-one-out cross validation, the model reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 21% with respect to predictions made with the mean mortality rate and the number of colonies. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo test is used to establish that the model's predictions are statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. These results highlight the influence of climate variables on honey bee populations, although variability in climate, by itself, cannot fully explain colony losses. This study was funded by the Austrian project 'Zukunft Biene'.
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Sorgho, Raissa; Franke, Jonas; Simboro, Seraphin; Phalkey, Revati; Saeurborn, Rainer
Malnutrition remains a leading cause of death in children in low- and middle-income countries; this will be aggravated by climate change. Annually, 6.9 million deaths of children under 5 were attributable directly or indirectly to malnutrition. Although these figures have recently decreased, evidence shows that a world with a medium climate (local warming up to 3-4 °C) will create an additional 25.2 million malnourished children. This proof of concept study explores the relationships between childhood malnutrition (more specifically stunting), regional agricultural yields, and climate variables through the use of remote sensing (RS) satellite imaging along with algorithms to predict the effect of climate variability on agricultural yields and on malnutrition of children under 5. The success of this proof of purpose study, NUTRItion and CLIMate (NUTRICLIM), should encourage researchers to apply both concept and tools to study of the link between weather variability, crop yield, and malnutrition on a larger scale. It would also allow for linking such micro-level data to climate models and address the challenge of projecting the additional impact of childhood malnutrition from climate change to various policy relevant time horizons.
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High Variability Is a Defining Component of Mediterranean-Climate Rivers and Their Biota
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Núria Cid
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Variability in flow as a result of seasonal precipitation patterns is a defining element of streams and rivers in Mediterranean-climate regions of the world and strongly influences the biota of these unique systems. Mediterranean-climate areas include the Mediterranean Basin and parts of Australia, California, Chile, and South Africa. Mediterranean streams and rivers can experience wet winters and consequent floods to severe droughts, when intermittency in otherwise perennial systems can occur. Inter-annual variation in precipitation can include multi-year droughts or consecutive wet years. Spatial variation in patterns of precipitation (rain vs. snow combined with topographic variability lead to spatial variability in hydrologic patterns that influence populations and communities. Mediterranean streams and rivers are global biodiversity hotspots and are particularly vulnerable to human impacts. Biomonitoring, conservation efforts, and management responses to climate change require approaches that account for spatial and temporal variability (including both intra- and inter-annual. The importance of long-term data sets for understanding and managing these systems highlights the need for sustained and coordinated research efforts in Mediterranean-climate streams and rivers.
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Habitat suitability and ecological niches of different plankton functional types in the global ocean
Vogt, Meike; Brun, Philipp; Payne, Mark R.; O'Brien, Colleen J.; Bednaršek, Nina; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Doney, Scott C.; Leblanc, Karine; Le Quéré, Corinne; Luo, Yawei; Moriarty, Róisín; O'Brien, Todd D.; Schiebel, Ralf; Swan, Chantal
2013-04-01
Marine plankton play a central role in the biogeochemical cycling of important elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur. While our knowledge about marine ecosystem structure and functioning is still scarce and episodic, several recent observational studies confirm that marine ecosystems have been changing due to recent climate change, overfishing, and coastal eutrophication. In order to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, the MAREDAT initiative has recently collected abundance and biomass data for 5 autotrophic (diatoms, Phaeocystis, coccolithophores, nitrogen fixers, picophytoplankton), and 6 heterotrophic plankton functional types (PFTs; bacteria, micro-, meso- and macrozooplankton, foraminifera and pteropods). Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools that can be used to derive information about species habitats in space and time. They have been used extensively for a wide range of ecological applications in terrestrial ecosystems, but here we present the first global application in the marine realm, which was made possible by the MAREDAT data synthesis effort. We use a maximum entropy SDM to simulate global habitat suitability, habitat extent and ecological niches for different PFTs in the modern ocean. Present habitat suitability is derived from presence-only MAREDAT data and the observed annual and monthly mean levels of physiologically relevant variables such as SST, nutrient concentration or photosynthetic active radiation received in the mixed layer. This information can then be used to derive ecological niches for different species or taxa within each PFT, and to compare the ecological niches of different PFTs. While these results still need verification because data was not available for all ocean regions for all PFTs, they can give a first indication what present and future plankton habitats may look like, and what consequences we may have to expect for future marine ecosystem functioning and service provision in a warmer
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Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability
Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.
2017-12-01
Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more
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Hsiung, Huan-Yi; Huang, Bing-Hong; Chang, Jui-Tse; Huang, Yao-Moan; Huang, Chih-Wei; Liao, Pei-Chun
2017-01-01
Spatial climate heterogeneity may not only affect adaptive gene frequencies but could also indirectly shape the genetic structure of neutral loci by impacting demographic dynamics. In this study, the effect of local climate on population genetic variation was tested in two phylogenetically close Scutellaria species in Taiwan. Scutellaria taipeiensis , which was originally assumed to be an endemic species of Taiwan Island, is shown to be part of the widespread species S. barbata based on the overlapping ranges of genetic variation and climatic niches as well as their morphological similarity. Rejection of the scenario of "early divergence with secondary contact" and the support for multiple origins of populations of S. taipeiensis from S. barbata provide strong evolutionary evidence for a taxonomic revision of the species combination. Further tests of a climatic effect on genetic variation were conducted. Regression analyses show nonlinear correlations among any pair of geographic, climatic, and genetic distances. However, significantly, the bioclimatic variables that represent the precipitation from late summer to early autumn explain roughly 13% of the genetic variation of our sampled populations. These results indicate that spatial differences of precipitation in the typhoon season may influence the regeneration rate and colonization rate of local populations. The periodic typhoon episodes explain the significant but nonlinear influence of climatic variables on population genetic differentiation. Although, the climatic difference does not lead to species divergence, the local climate variability indeed impacts the spatial genetic distribution at the population level.
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Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States
Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.
2014-01-01
Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frieda Beauregard
Full Text Available Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839 covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study
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Ecological response of Cedrus atlantica to climate variability in the Massif of Guetiane (Algeria
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Said Slimani
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Aim of the study: The study analyzes the long-term response of Atlas cedar, Cedrus atlantica (Manneti, to climate variability. Area of study: Atlas cedar forest of Guetiane (Batna, Algeria.Material and methods: The dendrochronological approach was adopted. An Atlas cedar tree-ring chronology was established from twenty trees. The response of the species to climate variability was assessed through the pointer years (PYs, the common climate signal among the individual chronologies, expressed by the first component (PC1, the mean sensitivity (msx, and response function and correlations analysis involving the tree-ring index and climate data (monthly mean temperature and total precipitation.Results: The highest growth variability was registered from the second half of the 20th century. The lower than the mean PYs, the PC1, and the msx increased markedly during the studied period. Dramatic increases in the PC1 and msx were detected at the end of the 1970s, reflecting a shift towards drier conditions enhancing an increasing trend towards more synchronous response of trees to climate conditions. The response function and correlations analysis showed that tree growth was mainly influenced by precipitation variability.Research highlights: Our findings provide baseline knowledge concerning the ecological response of Atlas cedar to climate variability in in its southern distribution limit, where a high level of tree mortality has been observed during recent decades, coinciding with the driest period Algeria has ever experienced. This information is vital to support ongoing ecosystem management efforts in the region. Keywords: Atlas cedar; annual growth variability; dieback; dendrochronology.
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Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health
Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E
2008-01-01
Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675
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Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.
Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E
2008-11-07
Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.
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Climate variability and land cover change over the North American monsoon region (Invited)
Zeng, X.; Scheftic, W. D.; Broxton, P. D.
2013-12-01
The North American Monsoon System over Mexico and southwestern United States represents a weather/climate and ecosystem coupled "macrosystem". The weather and climate affect the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem, while the ecosystem change affects surface energy, water, and carbon fluxes that, in turn, affect weather and climate. Furthermore, long-term weather/climate data have a much coarser horizontal resolution than the satellite land cover data. Here the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data at 32 km grid spacing will be combined with various satellite remote sensing products at 1 km and/or 8 km resolution from AVHRR, MODIS, and SPOT for the period of 1982 to present. Our analysis includes: a) precipitation, wind, and precipitable water data from NARR to characterize the North American monsoon; b) land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green vegetation fraction, and leaf-area index (LAI) data to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem; c) assessing the consistency of various satellite products; and d) testing the coherence in the weather/climate and ecosystem variability.
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Seandel, Marco; Falciatori, Ilaria; Shmelkov, Sergey V.; Kim, Jiyeon; James, Daylon; Rafii, Shahin
2010-01-01
The undifferentiated spermatogonia of adult mouse testes are composed of both true stem cells and committed progenitors. It is unclear what normally prevents these adult germ cells from manifesting multipotency. The critical elements of the spermatogonial stem cell niche, while poorly understood, are thought to be composed of Sertoli cells with several other somatic cell types in close proximity. We recently discovered a novel orphan G-protein coupled receptor (GPR125) that is restricted to undifferentiated spermatogonia within the testis. GPR125 expression was maintained when the progenitor cells were extracted from the in vivo niche and propagated under growth conditions that recapitulate key elements of the niche. Such conditions preserved the ability of the cells to generate multipotent derivatives, known as multipotent adult spermatogonial derived progenitor cells (MASCs). Upon differentiation, the latter produced a variety tissues including functional endothelium, illustrating the potential applications of such cells. Thus, GPR125 represents a novel target for purifying adult stem and progenitors from tissues, with the goal of developing autologous multipotent cell lines. PMID:18256534
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hui, D.; Luo, Y.; Katul, G.
2003-01-01
Inter annual variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon is investigated using a homogeneity-of-slopes model to identify the function change contributing to inter annual variability, net ecosystem carbon exchange, and night-time ecosystem respiration. Results of employing this statistical approach to a data set collected at the Duke Forest AmeriFlux site from August 1997 to December 2001 are discussed. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to partition the variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes into direct effects of seasonal and inter annual climatic variability and functional change. 51 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs
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Responses of Montane Forest to Climate Variability in the Central Himalayas of Nepal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janardan Mainali
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Climate changes are having dramatic ecological impacts in mid- to high-latitude mountain ranges where growth conditions are limited by climatic variables such as duration of growing season, moisture, and ambient temperature. We document patterns of forest vegetative response for 5 major alpine forest communities to current climate variability in the central Himalayas of Nepal to provide a baseline for assessment of future changes, as well as offer some insight into the trajectory of these changes over time. We used mean monthly surface air temperature and rainfall and the monthly averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI to compare relative vegetation productivity among forest types and in relation to both climatic variables. Because changes in temperature and precipitation are directly manifested as changes in phenology, we examined current vegetative responses to climate variability in an effort to determine which climate variable is most critical for different alpine forest types. Our results show that correlations differ according to vegetation type and confirm that both precipitation and temperature affect monthly NDVI values, though more significant correlations were found with temperature data. The temperature response was more consistent because at the maximum increased temperatures, there was still an ongoing increase in vegetative vigor. This indicates that temperature is still the major limiting factor for plant growth at higher-elevation sites. This part of the Himalayas has abundant moisture, and some forest types are already saturated in terms of growth in relation to precipitation. Clear increases in productivity are documented on the upper treeline ecotones, and these systems are likely to continue to have increasing growth rates.
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Nature and dynamics of climate variability in the uganda cattle corridor
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Meteology Department
2013-08-12
Aug 12, 2013 ... 1Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda. 2Africa Innovations Institute, Kampala, Uganda. 3Department of Biology, Gulu ..... research activities under the project “Adaptation to the. Impact of Climate Variability on Food and Health Security in the Cattle ...
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Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change
Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Shannon LaDeau; Janneke Hill Ris Lambers
2007-01-01
Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedling establishment, we analyzed demographic responses to spatiotemporal variation to temperature and soil moisture in...
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Language and other artifacts: socio-cultural dynamics of niche construction
Sinha, Chris
2015-01-01
Niche construction theory is a relatively new approach in evolutionary biology that seeks to integrate an ecological dimension into the Darwinian theory of evolution by natural selection. It is regarded by many evolutionary biologists as providing a significant revision of the Neo-Darwinian modern synthesis that unified Darwin’s theory of natural and sexual selection with 20th century population genetics. Niche construction theory has been invoked as a processual mediator of social cognitive evolution and of the emergence and evolution of language. I argue that language itself can be considered as a biocultural niche and evolutionary artifact. I provide both a general analysis of the cognitive and semiotic status of artifacts, and a formal analysis of language as a social and semiotic institution, based upon a distinction between the fundamental semiotic relations of “counting as” and “standing for.” I explore the consequences for theories of language and language learning of viewing language as a biocultural niche. I suggest that not only do niches mediate organism-organism interactions, but also that organisms mediate niche-niche interactions in ways that affect evolutionary processes, with the evolution of human infancy and childhood as a key example. I argue that language as a social and semiotic system is not only grounded in embodied engagements with the material and social-interactional world, but also grounds a sub-class of artifacts of particular significance in the cultural history of human cognition. Symbolic cognitive artifacts materially and semiotically mediate human cognition, and are not merely informational repositories, but co-agentively constitutive of culturally and historically emergent cognitive domains. I provide examples of the constitutive cognitive role of symbolic cognitive artifacts drawn from my research with my colleagues on cultural and linguistic conceptualizations of time, and their cultural variability. I conclude by
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Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia
2015-01-01
Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Osadolor Ebhuoma
2016-06-01
Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic
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Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael
2016-06-14
Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic
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Understanding Farmers' Response to Climate Variability in Nigeria ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this study, farmers 'response to climate variability was examined. Primary and secondary data were used. A multi-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the collection of the primary data using structured questionnaires. Four vegetation zones out of seven where farming is mainly carried out were selected for the study.
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Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
They are integrated and balance the ... implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production; that help maintain ecosystems ... other forms of life, the manner in which human beings respond to climate variability is critical not ..... work for longer hours and at the same time its effect on their health.
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Climate variability and extremes, interacting with nitrogen storage, amplify eutrophication risk
Lee, Minjin; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, P.C.D.; Jaffe, Peter R.
2016-01-01
Despite 30 years of basin-wide nutrient-reduction efforts, severe hypoxia continues to be observed in the Chesapeake Bay. Here we demonstrate the critical influence of climate variability, interacting with accumulated nitrogen (N) over multidecades, on Susquehanna River dissolved nitrogen (DN) loads, known precursors of the hypoxia in the Bay. We used the process model LM3-TAN (Terrestrial and Aquatic Nitrogen), which is capable of capturing both seasonal and decadal-to-century changes in vegetation-soil-river N storage, and produced nine scenarios of DN-load distributions under different short-term scenarios of climate variability and extremes. We illustrate that after 1 to 3 yearlong dry spells, the likelihood of exceeding a threshold DN load (56 kt yr−1) increases by 40 to 65% due to flushing of N accumulated throughout the dry spells and altered microbial processes. Our analyses suggest that possible future increases in climate variability/extremes—specifically, high precipitation occurring after multiyear dry spells—could likely lead to high DN-load anomalies and hypoxia.
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Impact of climatic change on ocean carbon fluxes. Role of the decadal variability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seferian, Roland
2013-01-01
Since the industrial revolution, oceans have absorbed roughly one quarter of the anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 , slowing down climate change. The evolution of the ocean carbon sink, paralleled to the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, is ruled by the CO 2 as well as climate. Influence of atmospheric CO 2 in the recent evolution of the ocean carbon sink is well understood whilst this is not the case for the climate's one. Indeed, some authors claim that the recent variations of the ocean CO 2 sink can be attributed to climate change, whereas some others suggest that these latter are controlled by a decadal variability, which is poorly understood. In this thesis, we address question relative to the role of the decadal variability of the ocean carbon fluxes through the mean of numerical modeling. On one hand, we have demonstrated that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit decadal fluctuations within the high latitudes oceans. These fluctuations displays modes of 10 to 50-year long which account for 20 to 40% of the year-to-year variability. Thanks to Detection and Attribution methods applied to RECCAP project's reconstructions (1960-2005), we have then assessed whether the occurrence of fluctuations at decadal time scale could hamper the detection of the climate contribution to the recent evolution of ocean carbon fluxes. We have shown that the climate contribution is indeed not detected in the high latitude oceans due to the presence of decadal mode of variability. In the low latitude oceans instead, the weaker fluctuations of ocean carbon fluxes at decadal time scale favor the detection of climate influence in the recent variations of the CO 2 fluxes. (author) [fr
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Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meier, Elaine S.; Kienast, Felix; Pearman, Peter B.
2010-01-01
Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic var...
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Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability
Done, J.; Ge, M.
2017-12-01
How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.
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Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change
Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.
2007-12-01
The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.
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Niche construction game cancer cells play.
Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana
2015-10-01
Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.
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Niche construction game cancer cells play
Bergman, Aviv; Gligorijevic, Bojana
2015-10-01
Niche construction concept was originally defined in evolutionary biology as the continuous interplay between natural selection via environmental conditions and the modification of these conditions by the organism itself. Processes unraveling during cancer metastasis include construction of niches, which cancer cells use towards more efficient survival, transport into new environments and preparation of the remote sites for their arrival. Many elegant experiments were done lately illustrating, for example, the premetastatic niche construction, but there is practically no mathematical modeling done which would apply the niche construction framework. To create models useful for understanding niche construction role in cancer progression, we argue that a) genetic, b) phenotypic and c) ecological levels are to be included. While the model proposed here is phenomenological in its current form, it can be converted into a predictive outcome model via experimental measurement of the model parameters. Here we give an overview of an experimentally formulated problem in cancer metastasis and propose how niche construction framework can be utilized and broadened to model it. Other life science disciplines, such as host-parasite coevolution, may also benefit from niche construction framework adaptation, to satisfy growing need for theoretical considerations of data collected by experimental biology.
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Spatial distributions of niche-constructing populations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaozhuo Han
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Niche construction theory regards organisms not only as the object of natural selection but also an active subject that can change their own selective pressure through eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Through reviewing the existing works on the theoretical models of niche construction, here we present the progress made on how niche construction influences genetic structure of spatially structured populations and the spatial-temporal dynamics of metapopulations, with special focuses on mathematical models and simulation methods. The majority of results confirmed that niche construction can significantly alter the evolutionary trajectories of structured populations. Organism-environmental interactions induced by niche construction can have profound influence on the dynamics, competition and diversity of metapopulations. It can affect fine-scale spatially distribution of species and spatial heterogeneity of the environment. We further propose a few research directions with potentials, such as applying adaptive dynamics or spatial game theory to explore the effect of niche construction on phenotypic evolution and diversification.
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Host specialist clownfishes are environmental niche generalists
Litsios, Glenn; Kostikova, Anna; Salamin, Nicolas
2014-01-01
Why generalist and specialist species coexist in nature is a question that has interested evolutionary biologists for a long time. While the coexistence of specialists and generalists exploiting resources on a single ecological dimension has been theoretically and empirically explored, biological systems with multiple resource dimensions (e.g. trophic, ecological) are less well understood. Yet, such systems may provide an alternative to the classical theory of stable evolutionary coexistence of generalist and specialist species on a single resource dimension. We explore such systems and the potential trade-offs between different resource dimensions in clownfishes. All species of this iconic clade are obligate mutualists with sea anemones yet show interspecific variation in anemone host specificity. Moreover, clownfishes developed variable environmental specialization across their distribution. In this study, we test for the existence of a relationship between host-specificity (number of anemones associated with a clownfish species) and environmental-specificity (expressed as the size of the ecological niche breadth across climatic gradients). We find a negative correlation between host range and environmental specificities in temperature, salinity and pH, probably indicating a trade-off between both types of specialization forcing species to specialize only in a single direction. Trade-offs in a multi-dimensional resource space could be a novel way of explaining the coexistence of generalist and specialists. PMID:25274370
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Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.
De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris
2015-01-01
Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.
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Tanentzap, Andrew J; Brandt, Angela J; Smissen, Rob D; Heenan, Peter B; Fukami, Tadashi; Lee, William G
2015-07-01
Plant radiations are widespread but their influence on community assembly has rarely been investigated. Theory and some evidence suggest that radiations can allow lineages to monopolize niche space when founding species arrive early into new bioclimatic regions and exploit ecological opportunities. These early radiations may subsequently reduce niche availability and dampen diversification of later arrivals. We tested this hypothesis of time-dependent lineage diversification and community dominance using the alpine flora of New Zealand. We estimated ages of 16 genera from published phylogenies and determined their relative occurrence across climatic and physical gradients in the alpine zone. We used these data to reconstruct occupancy of environmental space through time, integrating palaeoclimatic and palaeogeological changes. Our analysis suggested that earlier-colonizing lineages encountered a greater availability of environmental space, which promoted greater species diversity and occupancy of niche space. Genera that occupied broader niches were subsequently more dominant in local communities. An earlier time of arrival also contributed to greater diversity independently of its influence in accessing niche space. We suggest that plant radiations influence community assembly when they arise early in the occupancy of environmental space, allowing them to exclude later-arriving colonists from ecological communities by niche preemption. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
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Ayanlade, Ayansina; Radeny, Maren; Morton, John F; Muchaba, Tabitha
2018-07-15
This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Integrating life stages into ecological niche models: a case study on tiger beetles.
Taboada, Angela; von Wehrden, Henrik; Assmann, Thorsten
2013-01-01
Detailed understanding of a species' natural history and environmental needs across spatial scales is a primary requisite for effective conservation planning, particularly for species with complex life cycles in which different life stages occupy different niches and respond to the environment at different scales. However, niche models applied to conservation often neglect early life stages and are mostly performed at broad spatial scales. Using the endangered heath tiger beetle (Cicindela sylvatica) as a model species, we relate presence/absence and abundance data of locally dispersing adults and sedentary larvae to abiotic and biotic variables measured in a multiscale approach within the geographic extent relevant to active conservation management. At the scale of hundreds of meters, fine-grained abiotic conditions (i.e., vegetation structure) are fundamental determinants of the occurrence of both life stages, whereas the effect of biotic factors is mostly contained in the abiotic signature. The combination of dense heath vegetation and bare ground areas is thus the first requirement for the species' preservation, provided that accessibility to the suitable habitat is ensured. At a smaller scale (centimetres), the influence of abiotic factors on larval occurrence becomes negligible, suggesting the existence of important additional variables acting within larval proximity. Sustained significant correlations between neighbouring larvae in the models provide an indication of the potential impact of neighbourhood crowding on the larval niche within a few centimetres. Since the species spends the majority of its life cycle in the larval stage, it is essential to consider the hierarchical abiotic and biotic processes affecting the larvae when designing practical conservation guidelines for the species. This underlines the necessity for a more critical evaluation of the consequences of disregarding niche variation between life stages when estimating niches and
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Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran
Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.
2018-04-01
Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.
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Southern hemisphere climate variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Beraki, A
2012-09-01
Full Text Available in the atmospheric circulation. The ability of predicting these modes of climate variability on longer timescales is vital. Potential predictability is usually measured as a signal-to-noise contrast between the slowly evolving and chaotic components of the climate...
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Heino, Jani; Grönroos, Mira
2014-01-01
The regional occupancy and local abundance of species are affected by various species traits, but their relative effects are poorly understood. We studied the relationships between species traits and occupancy (i.e., proportion of sites occupied) or abundance (i.e., mean local abundance at occupied sites) of stream invertebrates using small-grained data (i.e., local stream sites) across a large spatial extent (i.e., three drainage basins). We found a significant, yet rather weak, linear relationship between occupancy and abundance. However, occupancy was strongly related to niche position (NP), but it showed a weaker relationship with niche breadth (NB). Abundance was at best weakly related to these explanatory niche-based variables. Biological traits, including feeding modes, habit traits, dispersal modes and body size classes, were generally less important in accounting for variation in occupancy and abundance. Our findings showed that the regional occupancy of stream invertebrate species is mostly related to niche characteristics, in particular, NP. However, the effects of NB on occupancy were affected by the measure itself. We conclude that niche characteristics determine the regional occupancy of species at relatively large spatial extents, suggesting that species distributions are determined by environmental variation among sites. PMID:24963387
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Dellicour, Simon; Fearnley, Shannon; Lombal, Anicée; Heidl, Sarah; Dahlhoff, Elizabeth P; Rank, Nathan E; Mardulyn, Patrick
2014-08-01
The leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis occurs across Western North America, either at high elevation or in small, isolated populations along the coast, and thus has a highly fragmented distribution. DNA sequence data (three loci) were collected from five regions across the species range. Population connectivity was examined using traditional ecological niche modeling, which suggested that gene flow could occur among regions now and in the past. We developed geographically explicit coalescence models of sequence evolution that incorporated a two-dimensional representation of the hypothesized ranges suggested by the niche-modeling estimates. We simulated sequence data according to these models and compared them to observed sequences to identify most probable scenarios regarding the migration history of C. aeneicollis. Our results disagreed with initial niche-modeling estimates by clearly rejecting recent connectivity among regions, and were instead most consistent with a long period of range fragmentation, extending well beyond the last glacial maximum. This application of geographically explicit models of coalescence has highlighted some limitations of the use of climatic variables for predicting the present and past range of a species and has explained aspects of the Pleistocene evolutionary history of a cold-adapted organism in Western North America. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species.
Lima, Jacqueline S; Ballesteros-Mejia, Liliana; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Collevatti, Rosane G
2017-11-01
The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Delerue, Florian; Gonzalez, Maya; Michalet, Richard; Pellerin, Sylvain; Augusto, Laurent
2015-01-01
The identification of an ecological niche specific to the regeneration phase has mobilised significant attention. However, the importance of the regeneration niche concept remains unclear. Our main objective was to study the existence of such a regeneration niche for a leguminous shrub, Ulex europaeus. This study was carried out in southwest France in the context of water and nutrient stresses (mainly phosphorus limitation) due to the presence of nutrient-poor sandy soils. We analysed the regeneration of the species from the germination of seeds and emergence of new seedlings until the seedlings reached young shrub size. Our design included a P fertilisation treatment. We also investigated microsite characteristics (micro-topography and vegetation development) as they can interact with meteorological conditions and determine water availability for seeds and seedlings. We found that P availability controlled seedling growth and the time necessary to reach young shrub size. Water availability appeared to impact the species germination and seedlings survival. We also found that P and water availability depended on the interactions between microsite characteristics and climatic variations. Finally we found evidence that P and water availability are important ecological factors shaping the regeneration niche of the species, but we found weak evidence that any microsite would be appropriate for the regeneration of the species in the long term. Future studies regarding regeneration niches need to distinguish more clearly the ecological factors important for regeneration (the regeneration niche per se) and the physical world where the seedlings appear and develop (the regeneration habitat). PMID:26098877
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florian Delerue
Full Text Available The identification of an ecological niche specific to the regeneration phase has mobilised significant attention. However, the importance of the regeneration niche concept remains unclear. Our main objective was to study the existence of such a regeneration niche for a leguminous shrub, Ulex europaeus. This study was carried out in southwest France in the context of water and nutrient stresses (mainly phosphorus limitation due to the presence of nutrient-poor sandy soils. We analysed the regeneration of the species from the germination of seeds and emergence of new seedlings until the seedlings reached young shrub size. Our design included a P fertilisation treatment. We also investigated microsite characteristics (micro-topography and vegetation development as they can interact with meteorological conditions and determine water availability for seeds and seedlings. We found that P availability controlled seedling growth and the time necessary to reach young shrub size. Water availability appeared to impact the species germination and seedlings survival. We also found that P and water availability depended on the interactions between microsite characteristics and climatic variations. Finally we found evidence that P and water availability are important ecological factors shaping the regeneration niche of the species, but we found weak evidence that any microsite would be appropriate for the regeneration of the species in the long term. Future studies regarding regeneration niches need to distinguish more clearly the ecological factors important for regeneration (the regeneration niche per se and the physical world where the seedlings appear and develop (the regeneration habitat.
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Stürmer, Morgana; Busanello, Marcos; Velho, João Pedro; Heck, Vanessa Isabel; Haygert-Velho, Ione Maria Pereira
2018-06-04
A number of studies have addressed the relations between climatic variables and milk composition, but these works used univariate statistical approaches. In our study, we used a multivariate approach (canonical correlation) to study the impact of climatic variables on milk composition, price, and monthly milk production at a dairy farm using bulk tank milk data. Data on milk composition, price, and monthly milk production were obtained from a dairy company that purchased the milk from the farm, while climatic variable data were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The data are from January 2014 to December 2016. Univariate correlation analysis and canonical correlation analysis were performed. Few correlations between the climatic variables and milk composition were found using a univariate approach. However, using canonical correlation analysis, we found a strong and significant correlation (r c = 0.95, p value = 0.0029). Lactose, ambient temperature measures (mean, minimum, and maximum), and temperature-humidity index (THI) were found to be the most important variables for the canonical correlation. Our study indicated that 10.2% of the variation in milk composition, pricing, and monthly milk production can be explained by climatic variables. Ambient temperature variables, together with THI, seem to have the most influence on variation in milk composition.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Somot, S
2005-12-15
Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)
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An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iotova, A [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology
1996-12-31
A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary
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An attempt to assess the energy related climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iotova, A. [Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia (Bulgaria). National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology
1995-12-31
A lot of efforts are directed now to study the interactions between energy and climate because of their significant importance for our planet. Globally, energy related emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) contribute for atmospheric warming. On regional level, where it is more difficult to determine concrete direction of climate variability and change, the role of energy remains considerable being not so direct as in the case of emissions` impact. Still there is essential necessity for further analyses and assessments of energy related climate variations and change in order to understand better and to quantify the energy - climate relations. In the presentation an attempt is made to develop approach for assessment of energy related climate variations on regional level. For this purpose, data and results from the research within Bulgarian Case Study (BCS) in the DECADES Inter-Agency Project framework are used. Considering the complex nature of the examined interconnections and the medium stage of the Study`s realisation, at the moment the approach can be presented in conceptual form. Correspondingly, the obtained results are illustrative and preliminary
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Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations
Mehta, V. M.
2017-12-01
Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) is one of the oldest areas of climate research. Building on centuries-long literature, a substantial body of research has emerged in the last two to three decades, focused on understanding causes, mechanisms, and impacts of DCV. Several DCV phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG for brevity), West Pacific Warm Pool variability, and decadal variability of El Niño-La Niña events - have been identified in observational records; and are associated with variability of worldwide atmospheric circulations, water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures; and oceanic circulations, salinity, and temperatures. Tree-ring based drought index data going back more than 700 years show presence of decadal hydrologic cycles (DHCs) in North America, Europe, and South Asia. Some of these cycles were associated with the rise and fall of civilizations, large-scale famines which killed millions of people, and acted as catalysts for socio-political revolutions. Instrument-measured data confirm presence of such worldwide DHCs associated with DCV phenomena; and show these DCV phenomena's worldwide impacts on river flows, crop productions, inland water-borne transportation, hydro-electricity generation, and agricultural irrigation. Fish catch data also show multiyear to decadal catch variability associated with these DCV phenomena in all oceans. This talk, drawn from my recently-published book (Mehta, V.M., 2017: Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 326 pp.), will give an overview of worldwide impacts of DCV phenomena, with specific examples of socio-economic-political impacts. This talk will also describe national and international security implications of such societal impacts, and worldwide food security implications. The talk will end with an outline of needed
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Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven
2017-04-01
Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to
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Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)
2008-02-15
Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)
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Effect of Climate Variability on Crop Income in Central Ethiopia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arega Shumetie Ademe
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Ethiopian agriculture is a vulnerable sector from effects of climate variability. This study identified how strong is the effect of climate variability on smallholders’ crop income in Central highlands and Arssi grain plough farming systems of the country. The unbalanced panel data (1994-2014 of the study collected for eight rounds analysed through fixed effect regression. The model result shows that successive increment of crop season rainfall keeping the temperature constant has negative and significant effect on households’ crop income in the study area. The crop income responds similarly for temperature increment if the rainfall remains constant. Given this, simultaneous increment of the two climate related inputs has positive and significant effect on crop income. Other variables like flood, frost, storm, and rainfall inconsistency in the onset and cessation time affected households’ crop income negatively and significantly. Similarly, draught power and human labour, which are critical inputs in the crop production of Ethiopian smallholders, have positive and significant effect on crop income as to the model result. Thus, this study recommended that there should be supplementing the rainfall through irrigation, check dam and other activities to have consistent water supply for the crop production that enable smallholders to collect better income. Additionally, negative effect of temperature increment should be curved through adopting long lasting strategies like afforestation.
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Ecological niche dimensionality and the evolutionary diversification of stick insects.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Patrik Nosil
Full Text Available The degree of phenotypic divergence and reproductive isolation between taxon pairs can vary quantitatively, and often increases as evolutionary divergence proceeds through various stages, from polymorphism to population differentiation, ecotype and race formation, speciation, and post-speciational divergence. Although divergent natural selection promotes divergence, it does not always result in strong differentiation. For example, divergent selection can fail to complete speciation, and distinct species pairs sometimes collapse ('speciation in reverse'. Widely-discussed explanations for this variability concern genetic architecture, and the geographic arrangement of populations. A less-explored possibility is that the degree of phenotypic and reproductive divergence between taxon pairs is positively related to the number of ecological niche dimensions (i.e., traits subject to divergent selection. Some data supporting this idea stem from laboratory experimental evolution studies using Drosophila, but tests from nature are lacking. Here we report results from manipulative field experiments in natural populations of herbivorous Timema stick insects that are consistent with this 'niche dimensionality' hypothesis. In such insects, divergent selection between host plants might occur for cryptic colouration (camouflage to evade visual predation, physiology (to detoxify plant chemicals, or both of these niche dimensions. We show that divergent selection on the single niche dimension of cryptic colouration can result in ecotype formation and intermediate levels of phenotypic and reproductive divergence between populations feeding on different hosts. However, greater divergence between a species pair involved divergent selection on both niche dimensions. Although further replication of the trends reported here is required, the results suggest that dimensionality of selection may complement genetic and geographic explanations for the degree of
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Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet
Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.
2012-04-01
As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Virginia Iglesias
Full Text Available Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests that winter conditions and biotic interactions have been critical limiting variables for high-elevation conifers in the past and will likely be so in the future. This long-term perspective offers insights on species responses to a broader range of climate and associated ecosystem changes than can be observed at present and should be part of resource management and conservation planning for the future.
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Climate variability and sedimentation of a hydropower reservoir
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Riedel, M.
2008-01-01
As part of the relicensing of a large Hydroelectric Project in the central Appalachians, large scale watershed and reservoir sedimentation models were developed to forecast potential sedimentation scenarios. The GIS based watershed model was spatially explicit and calibrated to long term observed data. Potential socio/economic development scenarios were used to construct future watershed land cover scenarios. Climatic variability and potential change analysis were used to identify future climate regimes and shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Permutations of these development and climate changes were forecasted over 50 years and used to develop sediment yield regimes to the project reservoir. Extensive field work and reservoir survey, including current and wave instrumentation, were used to characterize the project watershed, rivers and reservoir hydrodynamics. A fully 3 dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir sedimentation model was developed for the project and calibrated to observed data. Hydrologic and sedimentation results from watershed forecasting provided boundary conditions for reservoir inputs. The calibrated reservoir model was then used to forecast changes in reservoir sedimentation and storage capacity under different future climate scenarios. Results indicated unique zones of advancing sediment deltas and temporary storage areas. Forecasted changes in reservoir bathymetry and sedimentation patterns were also developed for the various climate change scenarios. The warmer and wetter scenario produced sedimentation impacts similar to extensive development under no climate change. The results of these analyses are being used to develop collaborative watershed and soil conservation partnerships to reduce future soil losses and reservoir sedimentation from projected development. (author)
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A variational approach to niche construction.
Constant, Axel; Ramstead, Maxwell J D; Veissière, Samuel P L; Campbell, John O; Friston, Karl J
2018-04-01
In evolutionary biology, niche construction is sometimes described as a genuine evolutionary process whereby organisms, through their activities and regulatory mechanisms, modify their environment such as to steer their own evolutionary trajectory, and that of other species. There is ongoing debate, however, on the extent to which niche construction ought to be considered a bona fide evolutionary force, on a par with natural selection. Recent formulations of the variational free-energy principle as applied to the life sciences describe the properties of living systems, and their selection in evolution, in terms of variational inference. We argue that niche construction can be described using a variational approach. We propose new arguments to support the niche construction perspective, and to extend the variational approach to niche construction to current perspectives in various scientific fields. © 2018 The Authors.
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Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.
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Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River
Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.
2017-12-01
Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.
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Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia
Cummins, Patrick F.; Masson, Diane
2014-01-01
Multi-decadal records of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) collected at a set of lighthouse stations are used to examine climatic variability and trends in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Particular attention is given to relations between the water property anomalies and variability in coastal freshwater discharge and alongshore wind stress. Within the Strait of Georgia, SSS anomalies are closely related to Fraser River discharge anomalies. Along the Pacific coast, anomalies in alongshore wind stress and freshwater runoff have the characteristics of white noise processes. A cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that SST and SSS variability along the open west coast is consistent with the response of a first-order autoregressive process driven by anomalous alongshore wind stress and coastal freshwater discharge, respectively. Thus climatic variability of SST and SSS along the Pacific coast of British Columbia occurs, in part, through the integration of noisy atmospheric forcing and coastal precipitation. Seasonal correlations show that SST is strongly related to wind stress during winter and fall. Conversely, SSS is relatively weakly related to the alongshore wind during spring, suggesting that variability in upwelling makes only a modest contribution to variability of SSS in the nearshore environment. Consistent with previous studies, secular trends indicate long-term warming and freshening of the coastal ocean at most stations. It is shown that long-term SST trends can be obscured by the pronounced climatic variability of these waters, requiring that time series extend for several decades to be reliably detected.
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The Distribution and Movement of American Cockroaches in Urban Niches of New Orleans.
Carlson, John C; Rabito, Felicia A; Werthmann, Derek; Fox, Mark
2017-10-01
American cockroaches are an important source of household allergens in tropical and semitropical climates. To determine which outdoor niches produce American cockroaches, traps were placed at 40 homes in New Orleans to collect nymphs. Nymphs were collected from the sewers, yards, and within the homes themselves. To compare sewers and yards as sources of cockroaches entering homes, adult cockroaches were collected, marked, and released into yards and sewers. No sewer-released cockroaches were collected in homes. Cockroaches released into yards were collected in the homes, suggesting that yards, rather than sewers, are a more important source niche. A field trial applying boric acid granules to the yard was performed in an effort to reduce entry of cockroaches. There was a significant reduction in the cockroach antigen collected in intervention homes compared with controls.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Schneider
2008-04-01
Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.
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Climate variability and Port wine quality
Gouveia, Celia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Dacamara, Carlos
2010-05-01
), suggesting that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Célia Gouveia and Ricardo M. Trigo. "Influence of climate variability on wheat production in Portugal". GeoENV2006- 6th International Conference on Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, Rhodes, October, 25-27, 2006 Miranda, P.M.A., F. Coelho, A. R. Tomé, M. A Valente., A. Carvalho, C. Pires, H. O. Pires, V. C. Cabrinha and C. Ramalho (2002) "20th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios", in Santos, F.D., K Forbes and R. Moita (eds) Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adptation Measures", 27-83. Gradiva
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Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates
Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.
2017-12-01
Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global
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Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)
2009-08-15
The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xavier eArnan
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Ecologists are increasingly concerned about how climate change will affect biodiversity yet have mostly addressed the issue at the species level. Here, we present a novel framework that accounts for the full range and complementarity of thermal responses present in a community; it may help reveal how biological communities will respond to climatic (i.e., thermal variability. First, we characterized the thermal niches of 147 ant species from 342 communities found along broad temperature gradients in western Europe. Within each community, species’ mean thermal breadth and the difference among species’ thermal optima (thermal complementarity were considered to define community thermal niche breadth—our proxy for community thermal resilience. The greater the range of thermal responses and their complementarity within a community, the greater the likelihood that the community could cope with novel conditions. Second, we used simulations to calculate how robust community thermal resilience was to random species extinctions. Community resilience was considered to be robust when random species extinctions largely failed to constrict initial community thermal breadth. Our results indicate that community thermal resilience was negatively and positively correlated with mean temperature and temperature seasonality, respectively. The pattern was reversed for robustness. While species richness did not directly affect community resilience to thermal variability, it did have a strong indirect effect because it determined community resilience robustness. Consequently, communities in warm, aseasonal regions are the most vulnerable to temperature variability, despite their greater number of species and resultant greater resilience robustness.
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Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)
Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.
2017-12-01
We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.
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Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.
Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck
2012-04-01
Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
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Swami, D.; Parthasarathy, D.; Dave, P.
2016-12-01
A key objective of the ongoing research is to understand the risk and vulnerability of agriculture and farming communities with respect to multiple climate change attributes, particularly monsoon variability and hydrology such as ground water availability. Climate Variability has always been a feature affecting Indian agriculture but the nature and characteristics of this variability is not well understood. Indian monsoon patterns are highly variable and most of the studies focus on larger domain such as Central India or Western coast (Ghosh et al., 2009) but district level analysis is missing i.e. the linkage between agriculture and climate variables at finer scale has not been investigated comprehensively. For example, Eastern Vidarbha region in Maharashtra is considered as one of the most agriculturally sensitive region in India, where every year a large number of farmers commit suicide. The main reasons for large number of suicides are climate related stressors such as droughts, hail storms, and monsoon variability aggravated with poor socio-economic conditions. Present study has tried to explore the areas in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra where famers and crop productivity, specifically cotton, sorghum, is highly vulnerable to monsoon variability, hydrological and socio-economic variables which are further modelled to determine the maximal contributing factor towards crops and farmers' vulnerability. After analysis using primary and secondary data, it will aid in decision making regarding field operations such as time of sowing, harvesting and irrigation requirements by optimizing the cropping pattern with climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. It also suggests the adaptation strategies to farmers regarding different types of cropping and water harvesting practices, optimized dates and timings for harvesting, sowing, water and nutrient requirements of particular crops according to the specific region. Primarily along with secondary analysis
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Riordan, Erin C; Gugger, Paul F; Ortego, Joaquín; Smith, Carrie; Gaddis, Keith; Thompson, Pam; Sork, Victoria L
2016-01-01
Geography and climate shape the distribution of organisms, their genotypes, and their phenotypes. To understand historical and future evolutionary and ecological responses to climate, we compared the association of geography and climate of three oak species (Quercus engelmannii, Quercus berberidifolia, and Quercus cornelius-mulleri) in an environmentally heterogeneous region of southern California at three organizational levels: regional species distributions, genetic variation, and phenotypic variation. We identified climatic variables influencing regional distribution patterns using species distribution models (SDMs), and then tested whether those individual variables are important in shaping genetic (microsatellite) and phenotypic (leaf morphology) variation. We estimated the relative contributions of geography and climate using multivariate redundancy analyses (RDA) with variance partitioning. The modeled distribution of each species was influenced by climate differently. Our analysis of genetic variation using RDA identified small but significant associations between genetic variation with climate and geography in Q. engelmannii and Q. cornelius-mulleri, but not in Q. berberidifolia, and climate explained more of the variation. Our analysis of phenotypic variation in Q. engelmannii indicated that climate had more impact than geography, but not in Q. berberidifolia. Throughout our analyses, we did not find a consistent pattern in effects of individual climatic variables. Our comparative analysis illustrates that climate influences tree response at all organizational levels, but the important climate factors vary depending on the level and on the species. Because of these species-specific and level-specific responses, today's sympatric species are unlikely to have similar distributions in the future. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.
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Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2016-01-01
Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.
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Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basher, Reid E.
1999-01-01
An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs
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Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Osborne, T M; Wheeler, T R
2013-01-01
Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability. (letter)
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Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.
2006-12-01
The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.
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Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Administrator
comprehensive study of the impacts of climate variability on some common classes of food crops. (tubers, grains ... erosion, incidents of pests and diseases, and sea level rise (Onyekwelu et .... calamities and human sufferings. The productivity ...
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Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. ... The changes have affected crops and livestock in a number of ways resulting in reduced productivity. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggest decreasing ...
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ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.
2006-01-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of
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Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.
2017-09-01
High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.
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Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.
2018-06-01
High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.
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The United States pork niche market phenomenon.
Honeyman, M S; Pirog, R S; Huber, G H; Lammers, P J; Hermann, J R
2006-08-01
After the broad industrialization of the US pork industry, there has been a development of niche markets for export and domestic pork; that is, there is a pork niche market phenomenon. The US pork niche market phenomenon is characterized, and 2 of the major markets are explained in detail. With the Midwest's tradition of a diversified family-based agriculture and record low hog prices of the late 1990s, the conditions were conducive for this phenomenon to develop. Pork niche markets utilize various sales methods including Internet sales, local abattoir sales, direct marketing, farmer networks, and targeting to organized groups. In 2003, there were approximately 35 to 40 active pork niche marketing efforts in Iowa. The Berkshire breed is an example of a swine breed that has had a recent resurgence because of niche markets. Berkshire pork is known for tenderness and excellent quality. Berkshire registrations have increased 4-fold in the last 10 yr. One of the larger niche marketers of "natural pork" is Niman Ranch Pork, which has more than 400 farmer-producers and processes about 2,500 pigs weekly. Many US consumers of pork are interested in issues concerning the environment, food safety, pig welfare, and pig farm ownership and structure. These consumers may be willing to pay more for pork from farmers who are also concerned about these issues. Small- and medium-sized swine farmers are active in pork niche markets. Niche markets claim product differentiation by superior or unique product quality and social attributes. Quality attributes include certain swine breeds, and meat quality, freshness, taste or flavor, and tenderness. Social or credence attributes often are claimed and include freedom from antibiotics and growth promotants; local family farm production; natural, organic, outdoor, or bedded rearing; humane rearing; known origin; environmentally friendly production; and the absence of animal by-products in the feed. Niche pork markets and alternative swine
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Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grewe, Volker
2007-01-01
A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Nino), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO x emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric
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Tao, F.; Rötter, R.
2013-12-01
Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for
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Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J
2016-12-01
Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhao, Y.; Wang, C.; Wang, S.; Tibig, Lourdes V.
2005-01-01
Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover
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Valtolina, Chiara; Robben, Joris H; Favier, Robert P; Rothuizen, Jan; Grinwis, Guy Cm; Schotanus, Baukje A; Penning, Louis C
2018-05-01
Objectives The aim of this study was to describe the cellular and stromal components of the hepatic progenitor cell niche in feline hepatic lipidosis (FHL). Methods Immunohistochemical staining for the progenitor/bile duct marker (K19), activated Kupffer cells (MAC387), myofibroblasts (alpha-smooth muscle actin [α-SMA]) and the extracellular matrix component laminin were used on seven liver biopsies of cats with FHL and three healthy cats. Double immunofluorescence stainings were performed to investigate co-localisation of different cell types in the hepatic progenitor cell (HPC) niche. Results HPCs, Kupffer cells, myofibroblasts and laminin deposition were observed in the liver samples of FHL, although with variability in the expression and positivity of the different immunostainings between different samples. When compared with the unaffected cats where K19 positivity and minimal α-SMA and laminin positivity were seen mainly in the portal area, in the majority of FHL samples K19 and α-SMA-positive cells and laminin positivity were seen also in the periportal and parenchymatous area. MAC387-positive cells were present throughout the parenchyma. Conclusions and relevance This is a preliminary morphological study to describe the activation and co-localisation of components of the HPC niche in FHL. Although the HPC niche in FHL resembles that described in hepatopathies in dogs and in feline lymphocytic cholangitis, the expression of K19, α-SMA, MAC387 and lamin is more variable in FHL, and a common pattern of activation could not be established. Nevertheless, when HPCs were activated, a spatial association between HPCs and their niche could be demonstrated.
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Role of climate variability in the heatstroke death rates of Kanto region in Japan
Akihiko, Takaya; Morioka, Yushi; Behera, Swadhin K.
2014-07-01
The death toll by heatstroke in Japan, especially in Kanto region, has sharply increased since 1994 together with large interannual variability. The surface air temperature and humidity observed during boreal summers of 1980-2010 were examined to understand the role of climate in the death toll. The extremely hot days, when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, are more strongly associated with the death toll than the conventional Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index. The extremely hot days tend to be associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation or the Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting a potential link with tropical climate variability to the heatstroke related deaths. Also, the influence of these climate modes on the death toll has strengthened since 1994 probably related to global warming. It is possible to develop early warning systems based on seasonal climate predictions since recent climate models show excellent predictability skills for those climate modes.
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Nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability: from curves to manifolds
Gavrilov, Andrey; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander
2016-04-01
The necessity of efficient dimensionality reduction methods capturing dynamical properties of the system from observed data is evident. Recent study shows that nonlinear dynamical mode (NDM) expansion is able to solve this problem and provide adequate phase variables in climate data analysis [1]. A single NDM is logical extension of linear spatio-temporal structure (like empirical orthogonal function pattern): it is constructed as nonlinear transformation of hidden scalar time series to the space of observed variables, i. e. projection of observed dataset onto a nonlinear curve. Both the hidden time series and the parameters of the curve are learned simultaneously using Bayesian approach. The only prior information about the hidden signal is the assumption of its smoothness. The optimal nonlinearity degree and smoothness are found using Bayesian evidence technique. In this work we do further extension and look for vector hidden signals instead of scalar with the same smoothness restriction. As a result we resolve multidimensional manifolds instead of sum of curves. The dimension of the hidden manifold is optimized using also Bayesian evidence. The efficiency of the extension is demonstrated on model examples. Results of application to climate data are demonstrated and discussed. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510
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Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...
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THE NICHE CONSTRUCTION PERSPECTIVE: A CRITICAL APPRAISAL*
Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Laland, Kevin N; Shuker, David M; Dickins, Thomas E; West, Stuart A
2014-01-01
Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equivalent in importance to natural selection. Here, we subject NCT to critical evaluation, in the form of a collaboration between one prominent advocate of NCT, and a team of skeptics. We discuss whether niche construction is an evolutionary process, whether NCT obscures or clarifies how natural selection leads to organismal adaptation, and whether niche construction and natural selection are of equivalent explanatory importance. We also consider whether the literature that promotes NCT overstates the significance of niche construction, whether it is internally coherent, and whether it accurately portrays standard evolutionary theory. Our disagreements reflect a wider dispute within evolutionary theory over whether the neo-Darwinian synthesis is in need of reformulation, as well as different usages of some key terms (e.g., evolutionary process). PMID:24325256
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The niche party concept and its measurement
Meyer, Thomas M; Miller, Bernhard
2015-01-01
The concept of the niche party has become increasingly popular in analyses of party competition. Yet, existing approaches vary in their definitions and their measurement approaches. We propose using a minimal definition that allows us to compare political parties in terms of their ?nicheness?. We argue that the conceptual core of the niche party concept is based on issue emphasis and that a niche party emphasizes policy areas neglected by its rivals. Based on this definition, we propose a con...
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Stahl, Yvonne; Simon, Rüdiger
2005-01-01
Stem cells are required to support the indeterminate growth style of plants. Meristems are a plants stem cell niches that foster stem cell survival and the production of descendants destined for differentiation. In shoot meristems, stem cell fate is decided at the populational level. The size of the stem cell domain at the meristem tip depends on signals that are exchanged with cells of the organizing centre underneath. In root meristems, individual stem cells are controlled by direct interaction with cells of the quiescent centre that lie in the immediate neighbourhood. Analysis of the interactions and signaling processes in the stem cell niches has delivered some insights into the molecules that are involved and revealed that the two major niches for plant stem cells are more similar than anticipated.
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Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma in Grenada, the Caribbean.
Akpinar-Elci, Muge; Martin, Francis E; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael
2015-11-01
Saharan dust is transported across the Atlantic and interacts with the Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions, becoming respirable and contributing to asthma presentments at the emergency department. This study investigated the relationships among dust, climatic variables, and asthma-related visits to the emergency room in Grenada. All asthma visits to the emergency room (n = 4411) over 5 years (2001-2005) were compared to the dust cover and climatic variables for the corresponding period. Variation in asthma was associated with change in dust concentration (R(2) = 0.036, p asthma was positively correlated with rainfall (R(2) = 0.055, p asthma visits were inversely related to mean sea level pressure (R(2) = 0.123, p = 0.006) and positively correlated with relative humidity (R(2) = 0.593, p = 0.85). Saharan dust in conjunction with seasonal humidity allows for inhalable particulate matter that exacerbates asthma among residents in the Caribbean island of Grenada. These findings contribute evidence suggesting a broader public health impact from Saharan dust. Thus, this research may inform strategic planning of resource allocation among the Caribbean public health agencies.
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Adaptation to climatic variability and change. Report of the task force on climate adaptation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smit, B.
1994-01-01
A critique and interpretation is presented of what is known and available about adaptation to climate changes, not based on any particular climate scenario. It is assumed that variability is a fact of climate and that changes in climatic conditions are possible and are constantly occurring. Emphasis is on adaptation with regard to economic and social activities in Canada. A series of linked objectives are addressed, relating to demonstration of the significance of adaptation, consideration of case studies of adaptation (past and potential future) in Canada, clarification of the meaning of adaptation and the forms it takes, assessment of policy implications, and identification of research priorities. The basic facts on global climate change are reviewed, including long-term temperature variations, and adaptation is discussed as a public policy response. Examples of adaptation in Canada are given in the areas of Great Lakes property, power generation, and transportation; Atlantic Canada communities and fisheries; forestry; the construction industry; the energy industry; recreation and tourism; agriculture; urban areas; and national defense. Recommendations regarding adapation are made to governments, the private sector, and researchers. An inventory of adaptation strategies for agriculture, the Arctic, coastal areas, ecosystems and land use, energy supply, fisheries, forestry, urban infrastructure, and water resources is appended
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Planning for Production of Freshwater Fish Fry in a Variable Climate in Northern Thailand.
Uppanunchai, Anuwat; Apirumanekul, Chusit; Lebel, Louis
2015-10-01
Provision of adequate numbers of quality fish fry is often a key constraint on aquaculture development. The management of climate-related risks in hatchery and nursery management operations has not received much attention, but is likely to be a key element of successful adaptation to climate change in the aquaculture sector. This study explored the sensitivities and vulnerability of freshwater fish fry production in 15 government hatcheries across Northern Thailand to climate variability and evaluated the robustness of the proposed adaptation measures. This study found that hatcheries have to consider several factors when planning production, including: taking into account farmer demand; production capacity of the hatchery; availability of water resources; local climate and other area factors; and, individual species requirements. Nile tilapia is the most commonly cultured species of freshwater fish. Most fry production is done in the wet season, as cold spells and drought conditions disrupt hatchery production and reduce fish farm demand in the dry season. In the wet season, some hatcheries are impacted by floods. Using a set of scenarios to capture major uncertainties and variability in climate, this study suggests a couple of strategies that should help make hatchery operations more climate change resilient, in particular: improving hatchery operations and management to deal better with risks under current climate variability; improving monitoring and information systems so that emerging climate-related risks are known sooner and understood better; and, research and development on alternative species, breeding programs, improving water management and other features of hatchery operations.
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Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale
Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.
2015-01-01
Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity
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Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.
2017-12-01
Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.
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Bone Marrow Vascular Niche: Home for Hematopoietic Stem Cells
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ningning He
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Though discovered later than osteoblastic niche, vascular niche has been regarded as an alternative indispensable niche operating regulation on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs. As significant progresses gained on this type niche, it is gradually clear that the main work of vascular niche is undertaking to support hematopoiesis. However, compared to what have been defined in the mechanisms through which the osteoblastic niche regulates hematopoiesis, we know less in vascular niche. In this review, based on research data hitherto we will focus on component foundation and various functions of vascular niche that guarantee the normal hematopoiesis process within bone marrow microenvironments. And the possible pathways raised by various research results through which this environment undergoes its function will be discussed as well.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sarah Ayeri Ogalleh
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Agricultural policies in Kenya aim to improve farmers’ livelihoods. With projected climate change, these policies are short of mechanisms that promote farmers’ adaptation. As a result, smallholders are confronted with a variety of challenges including climate change, which hinders their agricultural production. Local knowledge can be instrumental in assisting smallholders to cope with climate change and variability. In this paper, we present empirical evidence that demonstrates local knowledge, perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability amongst smallholders of Laikipia district of Kenya. A Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI calculated for one station is compared with smallholders’ perceptions. Data was collected using qualitative and quantitative methods in Umande and Muhonia sub-locations. Qualitative data included 46 transcripts from focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Quantitative data is derived from 206 interviewees. We analyzed qualitative and quantitative data using Atlas-ti and SPSS respectively. According to smallholders’ perceptions, climatic variability is increasingly changing. Local perceptions include decreasing rainfalls, increasing temperatures, increasing frosts and increasing hunger. The PDSI shows a trend towards severe droughts in the last four decades, which is in accordance with farmers’ perceptions. Smallholders use a combination of coping and adaptation strategies to respond to variability, including, among others, diversification of crop varieties, migration and sale of livestock. Significant relationships exist between drought perceptions and some adaptations such as migration and sale of livestock. Farmers have an in-depth knowledge of climatic variability, which they use to inform their coping and adaptation strategies. Knowledge of climatic perceptions and adaptations are vital entry points for decision makers and policy makers to learn how and where to enhance the
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Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA
Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion
2013-01-01
Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...
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Yamamoto, Masaya; Ohtani, Masato; Kurata, Kaoruko; Setoguchi, Hiroaki
2017-11-28
Recent biogeographic studies have illustrated that Quaternary climatic changes and historical orogenies have driven the development of high levels of biodiversity. In this context, phylogenetic niche conservatism may play a role as a major precursor of allopatric speciation. However, the effects of niche evolution on the diversification patterns of plant species under rapid habitat changes are still unknown. Here, Primula section Reinii, one of the few primroses endemic to the Japanese Archipelago, was investigated. This study aimed to clarify the phylogenetic position and relationships of section Reinii, interpret the biogeographic and diversification patterns of this group and gain a better understanding of the role of climatic niche evolution in the Japanese endemic primroses. Dated phylogeny for Primula section Reinii is presented based on the sequences of six chloroplast genes and one nuclear gene. Biogeographic history was reconstructed using statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis. Macro-evolutionary modelling of the climatic niche was combined with biogeographic inferences. Section Reinii was shown to be monophyletic based on chloroplast and nuclear sequences. Fossil-calibrated dating analysis estimated that this section diverged from its sister taxon, sect. Cortusoides, around 1.82 million years ago, and intraspecific diversification occurred within the last million years. This time frame was characterized by Quaternary climatic oscillations and uplift of high mountains in Japan. Biogeographic inference suggested that this section originated at the northern end of the Japanese Archipelago and then dispersed southward to other islands. Models of climatic niche evolution indicated that the closely related species P. reinii and P. tosanensis have contrasting niche optima and rates of niche evolution. Our results highlight that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the Japanese islands may play a significant role in the biogeographic history of Japanese endemic
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Niche-specific cognitive strategies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hulgard, K.; Ratcliffe, J. M.
2014-01-01
Related species with different diets are predicted to rely on different cognitive strategies: those best suited for locating available and appropriate foods. Here we tested two predictions of the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis in bats, which suggests that predatory species should...... the niche-specific cognitive strategies hypothesis and suggest that for gleaning and clutter-resistant aerial hawking bats, learning to associate shape with food interferes with subsequent spatial memory learning....
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Functional traits, convergent evolution, and periodic tables of niches.
Winemiller, Kirk O; Fitzgerald, Daniel B; Bower, Luke M; Pianka, Eric R
2015-08-01
Ecology is often said to lack general theories sufficiently predictive for applications. Here, we examine the concept of a periodic table of niches and feasibility of niche classification schemes from functional trait and performance data. Niche differences and their influence on ecological patterns and processes could be revealed effectively by first performing data reduction/ordination analyses separately on matrices of trait and performance data compiled according to logical associations with five basic niche 'dimensions', or aspects: habitat, life history, trophic, defence and metabolic. Resultant patterns then are integrated to produce interpretable niche gradients, ordinations and classifications. Degree of scheme periodicity would depend on degrees of niche conservatism and convergence causing species clustering across multiple niche dimensions. We analysed a sample data set containing trait and performance data to contrast two approaches for producing niche schemes: species ordination within niche gradient space, and niche categorisation according to trait-value thresholds. Creation of niche schemes useful for advancing ecological knowledge and its applications will depend on research that produces functional trait and performance datasets directly related to niche dimensions along with criteria for data standardisation and quality. As larger databases are compiled, opportunities will emerge to explore new methods for data reduction, ordination and classification. © 2015 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Frankcombe, L.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304829838; von der Heydt, A.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/245567526; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467
2010-01-01
The issue of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic has been an important topic of late. It is clear that there are multidecadal variations in several climate variables in the North Atlantic, such as sea surface temperature and sea level height. The details of this variability, in particular
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Long-term streamflow response to climatic variability in the Loess Plateau, China
Shenping Wang; Zhiqiang Zhang; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Huayong Zhang; Jianlao Li; Manliang Zhang
2008-01-01
The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12-km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province...
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Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.
2018-05-01
Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed
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Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa
Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.
2017-12-01
Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.
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The niche construction perspective: a critical appraisal.
Scott-Phillips, Thomas C; Laland, Kevin N; Shuker, David M; Dickins, Thomas E; West, Stuart A
2014-05-01
Niche construction refers to the activities of organisms that bring about changes in their environments, many of which are evolutionarily and ecologically consequential. Advocates of niche construction theory (NCT) believe that standard evolutionary theory fails to recognize the full importance of niche construction, and consequently propose a novel view of evolution, in which niche construction and its legacy over time (ecological inheritance) are described as evolutionary processes, equivalent in importance to natural selection. Here, we subject NCT to critical evaluation, in the form of a collaboration between one prominent advocate of NCT, and a team of skeptics. We discuss whether niche construction is an evolutionary process, whether NCT obscures or clarifies how natural selection leads to organismal adaptation, and whether niche construction and natural selection are of equivalent explanatory importance. We also consider whether the literature that promotes NCT overstates the significance of niche construction, whether it is internally coherent, and whether it accurately portrays standard evolutionary theory. Our disagreements reflect a wider dispute within evolutionary theory over whether the neo-Darwinian synthesis is in need of reformulation, as well as different usages of some key terms (e.g., evolutionary process). © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.
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Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems
Black, Bryan
2017-04-01
Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems Evidence is growing that climate variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean has increased over the last century, culminating in such events as the record-breaking El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 and the unusually persistent 2014/15 North Pacific Ocean heat wave known as "The Blob." Of particular concern is that rising variability could increase synchrony within and among North Pacific ecosystems, which could reduce the diversity of biological responses to climate (i.e. the "portfolio effect"), diminish resilience, and leave populations more prone to extirpation. To test this phenomenon, we use a network of multidecadal fish otolith growth-increment chronologies that were strongly correlated to records of winter (Jan-Mar) sea level. These biological and physical datasets spanned the California Current through the Gulf of Alaska. Synchrony was quantified as directional changes in running (31-year window) mean pairwise correlation within sea level and then within otolith time series. Synchrony in winter sea level at the nine stations with the longest records has increased by more than 40% over the 1950-2015 interval. Likewise, synchrony among the eight longest otolith chronologies has increased more than 100% over a comparable time period. These directional changes in synchrony are highly unlikely due to chance alone, as confirmed by comparing trends in observed data to those in simulated data (n = 10,000 iterations) with time series of identical number, length, and autocorrelation. Ultimately, this trend in rising synchrony may be linked to increased impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on mid-latitude ecosystems of North America, and may therefore reflect a much broader, global-scale signature.
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Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic
Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.
2017-12-01
Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events
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Assessing the impact of climate variability on cropping patterns in Kenya
Wahome, A.; Ndungu, L. W.; Ndubi, A. O.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Flores Cordova, A. I.
2017-12-01
Climate variability coupled with over-reliance on rain-fed agricultural production on already strained land that is facing degradation and declining soil fertility; highly impacts food security in Africa. In Kenya, dependence on the approximately 20% of land viable for agricultural production under climate stressors such as variations in amount and frequency of rainfall within the main growing season in March-April-May(MAM) and changing temperatures influence production. With time, cropping zones have changed with the changing climatic conditions. In response, the needs of decision makers to effectively assess the current cropped areas and the changes in cropping patterns, SERVIR East and Southern Africa developed updated crop maps and change maps. Specifically, the change maps depict the change in cropping patterns between 2000 and 2015 with a further assessment done on important food crops such as maize. Between 2001 and 2015 a total of 5394km2 of land was converted to cropland with 3370km2 being conversion to maize production. However, 318 sq km were converted from maize to other crops or conversion to other land use types. To assess the changes in climatic conditions, climate parameters such as precipitation trends, variation and averages over time were derived from CHIRPs (Climate Hazards Infra-red Precipitation with stations) which is a quasi-global blended precipitation dataset available at a resolution of approximately 5km. Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) water balance model was used to assess long term trends in crop performance as a proxy for maize yields. From the results, areas experiencing declining and varying precipitation with a declining WRSI index during the long rains displayed agricultural expansion with new areas being converted to cropland. In response to climate variability, farmers have converted more land to cropland instead of adopting better farming methods such as adopting drought resistant cultivars and using better farm
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amaury Caruzzo
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper assesses the impacts of climate variability on efficient electricity consumption in street lighting in Brazil. The Climate Demand Method (CDM was applied, and the energy savings achieved by Brazil’s National Efficient Street Lighting Program (ReLuz in 2005 were calculated, considering the monthly climatology of sunshine duration, disaggregated by county in Brazil. The total energy savings in street lighting in 2005 were estimated at 63 GWh/year or 1.39% higher than the value determined by ReLuz/Eletrobrás and there was a 15 MW reduction in demand in Brazil, considering the nearly 393,000 points in ReLuz served in 2005. The results indicate that, besides the difference in latitude, climate variability in different county increases the daily usage of street lighting up to 19%. Furthermore, Brazil’s large size means that seasonality patterns in energy savings are not homogeneous, and there is a correlation between the monthly variability in sunshine duration and the latitude of mesoregions. The CDM was also shown to be suitable for ranking mesoregions with the highest levels of energy saving lighting.
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Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.
2006-12-01
Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The
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Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Di Lorenzo, Emanuele [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
2015-02-27
This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.
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Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John
2008-01-01
Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change
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Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita
2013-09-01
Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.
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Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)
2012-01-15
This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)
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Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change
USDA Forest Service
2001-01-01
This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....
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Morinière, Jérôme; van Dam, Matthew H.; Hawlitschek, Oliver; Bergsten, Johannes; Michat, Mariano C.; Hendrich, Lars; Ribera, Ignacio; Toussaint, Emmanuel F. A.; Balke, Michael
2016-05-01
The underlying mechanisms responsible for the general increase in species richness from temperate regions to the tropics remain equivocal. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain this astonishing pattern but additional empirical studies are needed to shed light on the drivers at work. Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of the cosmopolitan diving beetle subfamily Colymbetinae, the majority of which are found in the Northern hemisphere, hence exhibiting an inversed latitudinal diversity gradient. We reconstructed a dated phylogeny using 12 genes, to investigate the biogeographical history and diversification dynamics in the Colymbetinae. We aimed to identify the role that phylogenetic niche conservatism plays in the inversed diversification pattern seen in this group. Our results suggest that Colymbetinae originated in temperate climates, which supports the hypothesis that their distribution is the result of an ancestral adaptation to temperate environmental conditions rather than tropical origins, and that temperate niche conservatism can generate and/or maintain inverse latitudinal diversity gradients.
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The niche party concept and its measurement.
Meyer, Thomas M; Miller, Bernhard
2015-03-01
The concept of the niche party has become increasingly popular in analyses of party competition. Yet, existing approaches vary in their definitions and their measurement approaches. We propose using a minimal definition that allows us to compare political parties in terms of their 'nicheness'. We argue that the conceptual core of the niche party concept is based on issue emphasis and that a niche party emphasizes policy areas neglected by its rivals. Based on this definition, we propose a continuous measure that allows for more fine-grained measurement of a party's 'nicheness' than the dominant, dichotomous approaches and thereby limits the risk of measurement error. Drawing on data collected by the Comparative Manifesto Project, we show that (1) our measure has high face validity and (2) exposes differences among parties that are not captured by alternative, static or dichotomous measures.
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Aichinger, Ernst; Kornet, Noortje; Friedrich, Thomas; Laux, Thomas
2012-01-01
Multicellular organisms possess pluripotent stem cells to form new organs, replenish the daily loss of cells, or regenerate organs after injury. Stem cells are maintained in specific environments, the stem cell niches, that provide signals to block differentiation. In plants, stem cell niches are situated in the shoot, root, and vascular meristems-self-perpetuating units of organ formation. Plants' lifelong activity-which, as in the case of trees, can extend over more than a thousand years-requires that a robust regulatory network keep the balance between pluripotent stem cells and differentiating descendants. In this review, we focus on current models in plant stem cell research elaborated during the past two decades, mainly in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We address the roles of mobile signals on transcriptional modules involved in balancing cell fates. In addition, we discuss shared features of and differences between the distinct stem cell niches of Arabidopsis.
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Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall
Berg, W.
2004-05-01
A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hansen, Ulrich Elmer; Nygaard, Ivan
2014-01-01
The economic development in emerging economies in Southeast Asia has significantly increased the use of fossil fuel based energy. This has severe implications for global climate change, and against this background, scholars within the sustainable transition tradition have taken an interest in addressing how transitions towards more sustainable development pathways in this region may be achieved. This paper contributes to the abovementioned literature by examining the conducive and limiting factors for development and proliferation of a palm oil biomass waste-to-energy niche in Malaysia during the period 1990–2011. Rising oil prices, strong pressure on the palm oil industry from environmental groups, and a persisting palm oil biomass waste disposal problem in Malaysia appear to have been conducive to niche proliferation, and on top of this national renewable energy policies and large-scale donor programmes have specifically supported the utilisation of palm oil biomass waste for energy. However, in spite of this, the niche development process has only made slow progress. The paper identifies reluctant implementation of energy policy, rise in biomass resource prices, limited network formation and negative results at the niche level, as the main factors hindering niche development. - Highlights: • We examine crucial factors for developing a biomass-to-energy niche in Malaysia. • In spite of interventions for policy support the niche has only made slow progress. • Oil prices, NGO pressure, waste problems and policy support were the enabling factors. • First, reluctant implementation of energy policy was hindering niche development. • Later, low performance level of implemented plants was hindering niche development
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Rurinda
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Vulnerability analysis is essential for targeting adaptation options to impacts of climate variability and change, particularly in diverse systems with limited resources such as smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the nature and sources of vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change, we analysed long term climate data and interviewed farmers individually and in groups in Makoni and Hwedza districts in eastern Zimbabwe. Farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate characteristics matched the recorded data. Total seasonal rainfall has not changed, but variability in the rainfall distribution within seasons has increased. The mean daily minimum temperature increased by 0.2 °C per decade in both Makoni and Hwedza. The mean daily maximum temperature increased by 0.5 °C per decade in Hwedza. The number of days with temperatures >30 °C also increased in Hwedza. Farmers indicated that livestock production was sensitive to drought due to lack of feed, affecting resource-endowed farmers, who own relatively large herds of cattle. Crop production was more sensitive to increased rainfall variability, largely affecting farmers with intermediate resource endowment. Availability of wild fruits and social safety nets were affected directly and indirectly by extreme temperatures and increased rainfall variability, impacting on the livelihoods of resource-constrained farmers. There was no evidence of a simple one-to-one relationship between vulnerability and farmer resource endowment, suggesting that vulnerability to climate variability and change is complex and not simply related to assets. Alongside climate variability and change, farmers were also faced with biophysical and socioeconomic challenges such as lack of fertilizers, and these problems had strong interactions with adaptation options to climate change. Diversifying crops and cultivars, staggering planting date and managing soil fertility were
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Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke
2016-01-01
Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...
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Kassie, B.T.
2014-01-01
Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley.
Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their
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Konowalik, Kamil; Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław
2017-01-01
In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.
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Vervoort, A J M W; Van der Voet, L F; Witmer, M; Thurkow, A L; Radder, C M; van Kesteren, P J M; Quartero, H W P; Kuchenbecker, W K H; Bongers, M Y; Geomini, P M A J; de Vleeschouwer, L H M; van Hooff, M H A; van Vliet, H A A M; Veersema, S; Renes, W B; van Meurs, H S; Bosmans, J; Oude Rengerink, K; Brölmann, H A M; Mol, B W J; Huirne, J A F
2015-11-12
A caesarean section (CS) can cause a defect or disruption of the myometrium at the site of the uterine scar, called a niche. In recent years, an association between a niche and postmenstrual spotting after a CS has been demonstrated. Hysteroscopic resection of these niches is thought to reduce spotting and menstrual pain. However, there are no randomised trials assessing the effectiveness of a hysteroscopic niche resection. We planned a multicentre randomised trial comparing hysteroscopic niche resection to no intervention. We study women with postmenstrual spotting after a CS and a niche with a residual myometrium of at least 3 mm during sonohysterography. After informed consent is obtained, eligible women will be randomly allocated to hysteroscopic resection of the niche or expectant management for 6 months. The primary outcome is the number of days with postmenstrual spotting during one menstrual cycle 6 months after randomisation. Secondary outcomes are menstrual characteristics, menstruation related pain and experienced discomfort due to spotting or menstrual pain, quality of life, patient satisfaction, sexual function, urological symptoms, medical consultations, medication use, complications, lost productivity and medical costs. Measurements will be performed at baseline and at 3 and 6 months after randomisation. A cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed from a societal perspective at 6 months after randomisation. This trial will provide insight in the (cost)effectiveness of hysteroscopic resection of a niche versus expectant management in women who have postmenstrual spotting and a niche with sufficient residual myometrium to perform a hysteroscopic niche resection. Dutch Trial Register NTR3269 . Registered 1 February 2012. ZonMw Grant number 80-82305-97-12030.
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A Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability: Case Study of Hunza Catchment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. N. Laghari
2018-06-01
Full Text Available The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH region. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp and temperature (Tmp and their combination. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. Temperature changes from 1°C to 4°C produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4°C, Prp+10% scenario.
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Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Błażejczyk Krzysztof
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.
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Evaluating Successful Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Southern Africa
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henny Osbahr
2010-06-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the success of small-scale farming livelihoods in adapting to climate variability and change. We represent adaptation actions as choices within a response space that includes coping but also longer-term adaptation actions, and define success as those actions which promote system resilience, promote legitimate institutional change, and hence generate and sustain collective action. We explore data on social responses from four regions across South Africa and Mozambique facing a variety of climate risks. The analysis suggests that some collective adaptation actions enhance livelihood resilience to climate change and variability but others have negative spillover effects to other scales. Any assessment of successful adaptation is, however, constrained by the scale of analysis in terms of the temporal and spatial boundaries on the system being investigated. In addition, the diversity of mechanisms by which rural communities in southern Africa adapt to risks suggests that external interventions to assist adaptation will need to be sensitive to the location-specific nature of adaptation.
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Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.
Zambrano, L I; Sevilla, C; Reyes-García, S Z; Sierra, M; Kafati, R; Rodriguez-Morales, A J; Mattar, S
2012-12-01
Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (pHonduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well as for prediction of dengue.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. M. Bouwer
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Variations in climate, land-use and water consumption can have profound effects on river runoff. There is an increasing demand to study these factors at the regional to river basin-scale since these effects will particularly affect water resources management at this level. This paper presents a method that can help to differentiate between the effects of man-made hydrological developments and climate variability (including both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change at the basin scale. We show and explain the relation between climate, water consumption and changes in runoff for the Krishna river basin in central India. River runoff variability due to observed climate variability and increased water consumption for irrigation and hydropower is simulated for the last 100 years (1901–2000 using the STREAM water balance model. Annual runoff under climate variability is shown to vary only by about 14–34 millimetres (6–15%. It appears that reservoir construction after 1960 and increasing water consumption has caused a persistent decrease in annual river runoff of up to approximately 123 mm (61%. Variation in runoff under climate variability only would have decreased over the period under study, but we estimate that increasing water consumption has caused runoff variability that is three times higher.
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Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan
2018-02-01
Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.
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Jury, William A.; Gruber, Joachim
1989-12-01
Soil and climatic variability contribute in an unknown manner to the leaching of pesticides below the surface soil zone where degradation occurs at maximum levels. In this paper we couple the climatic variability model of Eagleson (1978) to the soil variability transport model of Jury (1982) to produce a probability density distribution of residual mass fraction (RMF) remaining after leaching below the surface degradation zone. Estimates of the RMF distribution are shown to be much more sensitive to soil variability than climatic variability, except when the residence time of the chemical is shorter than one year. When soil variability dominates climatic variability, the applied water distribution may be replaced by a constant average water application rate without serious error. Simulations of leaching are run with 10 pesticides in two climates and in two representative soil types with a range of soil variability. Variability in soil or climate act to produce a nonnegligible probability of survival of a small value of residual mass even for relatively immobile compounds which are predicted to degrade completely by a simple model which neglects variability. However, the simpler model may still be useful for screening pesticides for groundwater pollution potential if somewhat larger residual masses of a given compound are tolerated. Monte Carlo simulations of the RMF distribution agreed well with model predictions over a wide range of pesticide properties.
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Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.
1993-01-01
The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)
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Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.
2008-01-01
Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707
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Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.
2013-12-01
Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at
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Cholera and Shigellosis: Different Epidemiology but Similar Responses to Climate Variability
Cash, Benjamin A.; Rodó, Xavier; Emch, Michael; Yunus, Md.; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes
2014-01-01
Background Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate. Methods and Findings The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event. Conclusions The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
William B Monahan
Full Text Available Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA. Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2 show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith, J.; Lavender, B. [Smith and Lavender Envrironmental Consultants, ON (Canada); Auld, H.; Broadhurst, D.; Bullock, T. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Ontario Region
1998-03-01
An assessment of how climate change will affect Ontario over the next century, including its social, biological and economic environment, is presented. The most significant impacts are expected to result from changes in precipitation patterns, in soil moisture, and in greater intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Some of the major impacts of changing climate discussed in this volume include: (1) more pollution episodes, (2) increased heat stress, (3) lowering of average water levels of the Great Lakes, (4) changes in the hydrologic cycle which could result in variability of water supply for hydroelectric power production, (5) warming waters of the Great Lakes which could cause fish species to shift northward, (6) cool temperate, moderate temperate and grassland regions could expand northwards as the boreal forest retreats, (7) longer crop growing seasons, (8) decreased snow loads, and (9) reduced ice on the Great Lakes which would increase the length of the shipping season. The general conclusion is that adapting to changing climate will require a knowledge of how climate changes occur and how the changes are likely to affect the environment, society and economy. Changes in other key variables such as technology, personal preferences and social values will also influence the rate of climate change and Ontario`s ability to adapt to it. refs., tabs., figs.
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Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins.
Feyrer, Frederick; Cloern, James E; Brown, Larry R; Fish, Maxfield A; Hieb, Kathryn A; Baxter, Randall D
2015-10-01
Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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Climate change, animal species, and habitats: Adaptation and issues (Chapter 5)
Deborah M. Finch; D. Max Smith; Olivia LeDee; Jean-Luc E. Cartron; Mark A. Rumble
2012-01-01
Because the rate of anthropogenic climate change exceeds the adaptive capacity of many animal and plant species, the scientific community anticipates negative consequences for ecosystems. Changes in climate have expanded, contracted, or shifted the climate niches of many species, often resulting in shifting geographic ranges. In the Great Basin, for example, projected...
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
2015-01-14
The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.
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Modulating the stem cell niche for tissue regeneration
Lane, Steven W; Williams, David A; Watt, Fiona M
2015-01-01
The field of regenerative medicine holds considerable promise for treating diseases that are currently intractable. Although many researchers are adopting the strategy of cell transplantation for tissue repair, an alternative approach to therapy is to manipulate the stem cell microenvironment, or niche, to facilitate repair by endogenous stem cells. The niche is highly dynamic, with multiple opportunities for intervention. These include administration of small molecules, biologics or biomaterials that target specific aspects of the niche, such as cell-cell and cell–extracellular matrix interactions, to stimulate expansion or differentiation of stem cells, or to cause reversion of differentiated cells to stem cells. Nevertheless, there are several challenges in targeting the niche therapeutically, not least that of achieving specificity of delivery and responses. We envisage that successful treatments in regenerative medicine will involve different combinations of factors to target stem cells and niche cells, applied at different times to effect recovery according to the dynamics of stem cell–niche interactions. PMID:25093887
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Competition and niche separation of pelagic bacteria in freshwater habitats.
Pernthaler, Jakob
2017-06-01
Freshwater bacterioplankton assemblages are composed of sympatric populations that can be delineated, for example, by ribosomal RNA gene relatedness and that differ in key ecophysiological properties. They may be free-living or attached, specialized for particular concentrations or subsets of substrates, or invest a variable amount of their resources in defence traits against protistan predators and viruses. Some may be motile and tactic whereas others are not, with far-reaching implications for their respective life styles and niche partitioning. The co-occurrence of competitors with overlapping growth requirements has profound consequences for the stability of community functions; it can to some extent be explained by habitat factors such as the microscale complexity and spatiotemporal variability of the lacustrine environments. On the other hand, the composition and diversity of freshwater microbial assemblages also reflects non-equilibrium states, dispersal and the stochasticity of community assembly processes. This review synoptically discusses the competition and niche separation of heterotrophic bacterial populations (defined at various levels of phylogenetic resolution) in the pelagic zone of inland surface waters from a variety of angles, focusing on habitat heterogeneity and the resulting biogeographic distribution patterns, the ecophysiological adaptations to the substrate field and the interactions of prokaryotes with predators and viruses. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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[Mesenchymal stroma cells and their niche].
Schneider, R K
2013-11-01
Stem cells reside in a highly specialized, complex microenvironment that is known as the stem cell niche. The stem cell niche can be described as an anatomically defined space where the stem cell is localized and nourished and stem cell quiescence, proliferation and differentiation are maintained. Tissue engineering aims to imitate the stem cell niche to (I) induce a directed differentiation, (II) maintain the self-renewal capacity or (III) find a regulated balance between self-renewal and differentiation. Mesenchymal stem or stromal cells (MSC) can differentiate in three-dimensional collagen gels into functional osteoblasts when subjected to a phosphate-rich cultivation medium. Furthermore, they acquire a prosynthetic, matrix remodeling, contractile phenotype. Medial artery calcification in patients with chronic kidney disease also proceeds through intramembranous ossification resulting from osteoblast-induced calcification of the collagen extracellular matrix. Thus, the influence of uremic cultivation conditions as a pathophysiological stimulus on MSC and endothelial cells was analyzed with special regards to matrix remodeling, vascularization and calcification. The results showed that BMP-2/4 mediated MSC (mal)differentiation into osteoblasts with acquired matrix remodeling phenotype and loss of proangiogenic capacity. These studies have led to the conclusion that uremia has detrimental effects on the stem cell niche and promotes the continuous calcification by osteogenic (mal)differentiation. In summary, recent studies have shown the conducting and regulating effect of the stem cell niche under physiological conditions that can be applied and mimicked for tissue engineering applications. However, under pathological conditions the stem cell niche can have detrimental effects on stem cell function and can promote disease progression.
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An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue; Wang, Wanqiu [Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP), Camp Springs, MD (United States)
2011-09-15
In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. (orig.)
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European climate variability and human susceptibility over the past 2500 years
Buentgen, U.
2010-09-01
Climate variations including droughts in the western US and African Sahel, landfalls of Atlantic hurricanes, and shifts in the Asian monsoon have affected human societies throughout history mainly by modulating water supply and agricultural productivity, health risk and civil conflict. Yet, discriminations of environmental impacts from political, economical and technological drivers of societal shifts are may be hampered by the indirect effects of climate on society, but certainly by the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here we present a tree-ring network of 7284 precipitation sensitive oak series from lower elevations in France and Germany, and a compilation of 1546 temperature responsive conifers from higher elevations in the Austrian Alps, both covering the past 2500 years. Temporal distribution of historical felling dates of construction timber refers to changes in settlement activity that mirror different stages of economic wealth. Variations in Central European summer precipitation and temperature are contrasted with societal benchmarks. Prolonged periods of generally wet and warm summers, favourable for cultural prosperity, appeared during the Roman epoch between ~200 BC and 200 AD and from ~700-1000 AD, with the latter facilitating the rapid economic, cultural and political growth of medieval Europe. Unprecedented climate variability from ~200-500 AD coincides with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the subsequent Barbarian Migrations. This period was characterized by continental-scale political turmoil, cultural stagnation and socio-economic instability including settlement abandonment, population migration, and societal collapse. Driest and coldest summers of the Late Holocene concurred in the 6th century, during which regional consolidation began. The recent political, cultural and fiscal reluctance to adapt to and mitigate projected climate change reflects the common belief of societal insusceptibility to environmental
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Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability
Brown, M. E.
2013-12-01
The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used
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Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A; Sjaastad, Espen Olav; Theisen, Ole Magnus
2015-01-01
Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect...
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Forests and trees for social adaptation to climate variability and change
Pramova, E.; Locatelli, B.; Djoudi, H.; Somorin, O.A.
2012-01-01
Ecosystems provide important services that can help people adapt to climate variability and change. Recognizing this role of ecosystems, several international and nongovernmental organizations have promoted an ecosystem-based approach to adaptation. We review the scientific literature related to
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Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B
2017-06-01
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly
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Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.
2017-01-01
Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cassinello, Jorge; Acevedo, Pelayo; Hortal, Joaquín
2006-01-01
We studied the geographical distribution and habitat suitability of an introduced ungulate, the aoudad (Ammotragus lervia), that is currently expanding its range in south-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We assessed the niche of the species using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) on (1......) environmental variables (climate and habitat type), and (2) potential aoudad landscape avoidance and human disturbance variables. We compared both niche descriptions to study the impact of human interference on niche selection of the species. ENFA models were calibrated using data on the population expanded...
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Impact of Variable-Resolution Meshes on Regional Climate Simulations
Fowler, L. D.; Skamarock, W. C.; Bruyere, C. L.
2014-12-01
The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is currently being used for seasonal-scale simulations on globally-uniform and regionally-refined meshes. Our ongoing research aims at analyzing simulations of tropical convective activity and tropical cyclone development during one hurricane season over the North Atlantic Ocean, contrasting statistics obtained with a variable-resolution mesh against those obtained with a quasi-uniform mesh. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution, frequency, and intensity of convective and grid-scale precipitations, and their relative contributions to the total precipitation as a function of the horizontal scale. Multi-month simulations initialized on May 1st 2005 using ERA-Interim re-analyses indicate that MPAS performs satisfactorily as a regional climate model for different combinations of horizontal resolutions and transitions between the coarse and refined meshes. Results highlight seamless transitions for convection, cloud microphysics, radiation, and land-surface processes between the quasi-uniform and locally- refined meshes, despite the fact that the physics parameterizations were not developed for variable resolution meshes. Our goal of analyzing the performance of MPAS is twofold. First, we want to establish that MPAS can be successfully used as a regional climate model, bypassing the need for nesting and nudging techniques at the edges of the computational domain as done in traditional regional climate modeling. Second, we want to assess the performance of our convective and cloud microphysics parameterizations as the horizontal resolution varies between the lower-resolution quasi-uniform and higher-resolution locally-refined areas of the global domain.
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Wu, Liangliang; Mo, Wenjian; Zhang, Yuping; Zhou, Ming; Li, Yumiao; Zhou, Ruiqing; Xu, Shiling; Pan, Shiyi; Deng, Hui; Mao, Ping; Wang, Shunqing
2017-07-01
Bone marrow (BM) niches, including the osteoblastic, vascular, and perivascular niches, are numerically impaired in patients with aplastic anemia (AA). It remains unclear whether these niches are numerically restored in AA patients after allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). To investigate changes in BM niches, we monitored 52 patients with AA who had undergone allo-HSCT and performed immunohistochemical studies of BM niches using antibodies against CD34, CD146, and osteopontin. After allo-HSCT, patients with AA exhibited a remarkable increase in the number of cellular elements in the BM niches, including the vascular and perivascular cells. However, no significant differences in endosteal cells were detected. We explored the cause of this restoration by analyzing the origin of BM mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) and the expression of cytokines in BM plasma. STR-PCR revealed that the BM-MSCs were derived from the host, not the donor. In addition, significantly elevated levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were found after allo-HSCT. Our data indicates that vascular and perivascular niches are numerically restored, but the endosteal niche remains numerically impaired in patients with AA after allo-HSCT, and that levels of VEGF, but not donor-derived BM-MSCs, may correlate with the restoration of BM niches.
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Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.
Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L
2017-07-01
Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
2017-12-28
This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASM can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes
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Using traditional methods and indigenous technologies for coping with climate variability
Stigter, C.J.; Zheng Dawei,; Onyewotu, L.O.Z.; Mei Xurong,
2005-01-01
In agrometeorology and management of meteorology related natural resources, many traditional methods and indigenous technologies are still in use or being revived for managing low external inputs sustainable agriculture (LEISA) under conditions of climate variability. This paper starts with the
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Vervoort, A. J. M. W.; van der Voet, L. F.; Witmer, M.; Thurkow, A. L.; Radder, C. M.; van Kesteren, P. J. M.; Quartero, H. W. P.; Kuchenbecker, W. K. H.; Bongers, M. Y.; Geomini, P. M. A. J.; de Vleeschouwer, L. H. M.; van Hooff, M. H. A.; van Vliet, H. A. A. M.; Veersema, S.; Renes, W. B.; van Meurs, H. S.; Bosmans, J.; Oude Rengerink, K.; Brölmann, H. A. M.; Mol, B. W. J.; Huirne, J. A. F.
2015-01-01
A caesarean section (CS) can cause a defect or disruption of the myometrium at the site of the uterine scar, called a niche. In recent years, an association between a niche and postmenstrual spotting after a CS has been demonstrated. Hysteroscopic resection of these niches is thought to reduce
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Validation of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles through the smoothness of climate variables
Lee, Myoungji
2015-05-14
Smoothness is an important characteristic of a spatial process that measures local variability. If climate model outputs are realistic, then not only the values at each grid pixel but also the relative variation over nearby pixels should represent the true climate. We estimate the smoothness of long-term averages for land surface temperature anomalies in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and compare them by climate regions and seasons. We also compare the estimated smoothness of the climate outputs in CMIP5 with those of reanalysis data. The estimation is done through the composite likelihood approach for locally self-similar processes. The composite likelihood that we consider is a product of conditional likelihoods of neighbouring observations. We find that the smoothness of the surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5 depends primarily on the modelling institution and on the climate region. The seasonal difference in the smoothness is generally small, except for some climate regions where the average temperature is extremely high or low.
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Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MARINA ZANIN
Full Text Available ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.
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Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.
Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M
2017-01-01
In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.
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Back from a predicted climatic extinction of an island endemic: a future for the Corsican Nuthatch.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Morgane Barbet-Massin
Full Text Available The Corsican Nuthatch (Sitta whiteheadi is red-listed as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN because of its endemism, reduced population size, and recent decline. A further cause is the fragmentation and loss of its spatially-restricted favourite habitat, the Corsican pine (Pinus nigra laricio forest. In this study, we aimed at estimating the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Corsican Nuthatch using species distribution models. Because this species has a strong trophic association with the Corsican and Maritime pines (P. nigra laricio and P. pinaster, we first modelled the current and future potential distribution of both pine species in order to use them as habitat variables when modelling the nuthatch distribution. However, the Corsican pine has suffered large distribution losses in the past centuries due to the development of anthropogenic activities, and is now restricted to mountainous woodland. As a consequence, its realized niche is likely significantly smaller than its fundamental niche, so that a projection of the current distribution under future climatic conditions would produce misleading results. To obtain a predicted pine distribution at closest to the geographic projection of the fundamental niche, we used available information on the current pine distribution associated to information on the persistence of isolated natural pine coppices. While common thresholds (maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity predicted a potential large loss of the Corsican Nuthatch distribution by 2100, the use of more appropriate thresholds aiming at getting closer to the fundamental distribution of the Corsican pine predicted that 98% of the current presence points should remain potentially suitable for the nuthatch and its range could be 10% larger in the future. The habitat of the endemic Corsican Nuthatch is therefore more likely threatened by an increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires or anthropogenic
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The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region
Gerersdorfer, T.
2010-09-01
The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo Santillán Gutiérrez
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The hydrologic regime and the water catchment capacity of a hydrographic basin depend on the temporal and spatial variation patterns of climatic variables and on the physiographic characteristics of the watershed. In certain regions, where the availability of water depends on the catchment capacity of the watershed, the utilization of effective methods such as the hydric balance has become more frequently used because it enables an estimate of the hydrologic regime, the catchment capacity, and the water flows. It also enables an estimate of the hydrologic processes and the period in which they occurred. In the present work, assessments of the Climatic Hydric Balance (CHB and of potential evapotranspiration were performed in the Cazones river basin. The calculations followed the Thornthwaite and Mather method based on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation during the period from 1981 to 2010. As a result of these assessments, it was found that the excess layer of water and the annual runoff were 638.63 mm and 637.02 mm, respectively. Further, the work identified the months that comprise the humid and dry periods, the regime of the climatic variables, and surpluses and deficits of water in the basin during an annual cycle.
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An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability
Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng
2018-04-01
Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. J. Gómez-Navarro
2012-01-01
Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings. In this respect, we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for it. This study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which a direct comparison between model simulations of precipitation and climate reconstructions would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between them should not be expected even if both are perfect.
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Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon
2016-01-01
Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.
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Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
47% of the respondents perceived climatic variability as delayed in rainfall, 22% perceived it as high temperature, 6% says it is flood, 3% sees it as unusual rainfall while 22% perceived it as undefined season. Although both gender do not have the same adaptive capacity, women (100%) are more vulnerable to the impact ...
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Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.
2016-01-01
Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.
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Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels.
Felton, Andrew J; Smith, Melinda D
2017-06-19
Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).
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Ecological and evolutionary consequences of niche construction for its agent.
Kylafis, Grigoris; Loreau, Michel
2008-10-01
Niche construction can generate ecological and evolutionary feedbacks that have been underinvestigated so far. We present an eco-evolutionary model that incorporates the process of niche construction to reveal its effects on the ecology and evolution of the niche-constructing agent. We consider a simple plant-soil nutrient ecosystem in which plants have the ability to increase the input of inorganic nutrient as an example of positive niche construction. On an ecological time scale, the model shows that niche construction allows the persistence of plants under infertile soil conditions that would otherwise lead to their extinction. This expansion of plants' niche, however, requires a high enough rate of niche construction and a high enough initial plant biomass to fuel the positive ecological feedback between plants and their soil environment. On an evolutionary time scale, we consider that the rates of niche construction and nutrient uptake coevolve in plants while a trade-off constrains their values. Different evolutionary outcomes are possible depending on the shape of the trade-off. We show that niche construction results in an evolutionary feedback between plants and their soil environment such that plants partially regulate soil nutrient content. The direct benefit accruing to plants, however, plays a crucial role in the evolutionary advantage of niche construction.
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Richetti, J.; Ahmad, I.; Aristizabal, F.; Judge, J.
2017-12-01
Determining maize agricultural production under climate variability is valuable to policy makers in Pakistan since maize is the third most produced crop by area after wheat and rice. This study aims to predict the maize production under climate variability. Two-hundred ground truth points of both maize and non-maize land covers were collected from the Faisalabad district during the growing seasons of 2015 and 2016. Landsat-8 images taken in second week of May which correspond spatially and temporally to the local, peak growing season for maize were gathered. For classifying the region training data was constructed for a variety of machine learning algorithms by sampling the second, third, and fourth bands of the Landsat-8 imagery at these reference locations. Cross validation was used for parameter tuning as well as estimating the generalized performances. All the classifiers resulted in overall accuracies of greater than 90% for both years and a support vector machine with a radial basis kernel recorded the maximum accuracy of 97%. The tuned models were used to determine the spatial distribution of maize fields for both growing seasons in the Faisalabad district using parallel processing to improve computation time. The overall classified maize growing area represented 12% difference than that reported by the Crop Reporting Service (CRS) of Punjab Pakistan for both 2015 and 2016. For the agricultural production normalized difference vegetation index from Landsat-8 and climate indicators from ground stations will be used as inputs in a variety of machine learning regression algorithms. The expected results will be compared to actual yield from 64 commercial farms. To verify the impact of climate variability in the maize agricultural production historical climate data from previous 30 years will be used in the developed model to asses the impact of climate variability on the maize production.
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Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)
2015-02-20
Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the
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Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.
2015-12-01
The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.
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Market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry.
Dandurand, L
1990-03-01
This article discusses the nature of market niche analysis in the casino gaming industry. It presents four approaches for conducting market niche analysis. An an example of one approach, the Las Vegas Visitor Profile Study is used to identify a premium niche in the Las Vegas Slot Target Market. A detailed examination of the premium niche profile provides a description of the typical premium slot player. The description of the typical premium player leads to hypotheses regarding needs (the unique preference set) of the premium player. An analysis of the unique preference set suggests an appropriate enhanced marketing program.
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Ecological Niche Modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan
2011-01-01
Background Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. Results The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. Conclusions Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control. PMID:22152056
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THE GERMLINE STEM CELL NICHE UNIT IN MAMMALIAN TESTES
Oatley, Jon M.; Brinster, Ralph L.
2014-01-01
This review addresses current understanding of the germline stem cell niche unit in mammalian testes. Spermatogenesis is a classic model of tissue-specific stem cell function relying on self-renewal and differentiation of spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs). These fate decisions are influenced by a niche microenvironment composed of a growth factor milieu that is provided by several testis somatic support cell populations. Investigations over the last two decades have identified key determinants of the SSC niche including cytokines that regulate SSC functions and support cells providing these factors, adhesion molecules that influence SSC homing, and developmental heterogeneity of the niche during postnatal aging. Emerging evidence suggests that Sertoli cells are a key support cell population influencing the formation and function of niches by secreting soluble factors and possibly orchestrating contributions of other support cells. Investigations with mice have shown that niche influence on SSC proliferation differs during early postnatal development and adulthood. Moreover, there is mounting evidence of an age-related decline in niche function, which is likely influenced by systemic factors. Defining the attributes of stem cell niches is key to developing methods to utilize these cells for regenerative medicine. The SSC population and associated niche comprise a valuable model system for study that provides fundamental knowledge about the biology of tissue-specific stem cells and their capacity to sustain homeostasis of regenerating tissue lineages. While the stem cell is essential for maintenance of all self-renewing tissues and has received considerable attention, the role of niche cells is at least as important and may prove to be more receptive to modification in regenerative medicine. PMID:22535892
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Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.
2018-02-01
Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.
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Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe
Normand, Signe; Ricklefs, Robert E.; Skov, Flemming; Bladt, Jesper; Tackenberg, Oliver; Svenning, Jens-Christian
2011-01-01
The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role. PMID:21543356
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Primer and interviews: The dynamic stem cell niche.
Kiefer, Julie C
2011-03-01
A stem cell niche is a microenvironment that supports self-renewal of a population of stem cells, and their production of differentiated cells. While the definition evokes images of a stem cell Shangri-La-where a serene stem cell pool nestles within a niche that shelters and sustains it-the reality is much more tumultuous. Niches are subject to an ever-changing maelstrom of environmental factors, the ravages of old age, and the sly tactics of disease. Presented here is a basic overview of the different ways in which stem cell niches respond to local and systemic environments, and their impact on stem cell behavior. The primer culminates with a discussion of the topic with stem cell and niche biologists D. Leanne Jones, Ph.D., and Tudorita Tumbar, Ph.D. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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The crosstalk between hematopoietic stem cells and their niches.
Durand, Charles; Charbord, Pierre; Jaffredo, Thierry
2018-07-01
Hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) reside in specific microenvironments also called niches that regulate HSC functions. Understanding the molecular and cellular mechanisms involved in the crosstalk between HSCs and niche cells is a major issue in stem cell biology and regenerative medicine. The purpose of this review is to discuss recent advances in this field with particular emphasis on the transcriptional landscape of HSC niche cells and the roles of extracellular vesicles (EVs) in the dialog between HSCs and their microenvironments. The development of high-throughput technologies combined with computational methods has considerably improved our knowledge on the molecular identity of HSC niche cells. Accumulating evidence strongly suggest that the dialog between HSCs and their niches is bidirectional and that EVs play an important role in this process. These advances bring a unique conceptual and methodological framework for understanding the molecular complexity of the HSC niche and identifying novel HSC regulators. They are also promising for exploring the reciprocal influence of HSCs on niche cells and delivering specific molecules to HSCs in regenerative medicine.
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Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Shamu, Shepherd; Sartorius, Benn; Mukaratirwa, Samson
2017-09-30
Malaria is a public health problem in Zimbabwe. Although many studies have indicated that climate change may influence the distribution of malaria, there is paucity of information on its trends and association with climatic variables in Zimbabwe. To address this shortfall, the trends of malaria incidence and its interaction with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe for the period January 2005 to April 2015 was assessed. Retrospective data analysis of reported cases of malaria in three selected Gwanda district rural wards (Buvuma, Ntalale and Selonga) was carried out. Data on malaria cases was collected from the district health information system and ward clinics while data on precipitation and temperature were obtained from the climate hazards group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) database and the moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data, respectively. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNLM) were used to determine the temporal lagged association between monthly malaria incidence and monthly climatic variables. There were 246 confirmed malaria cases in the three wards with a mean incidence of 0.16/1000 population/month. The majority of malaria cases (95%) occurred in the > 5 years age category. The results showed no correlation between trends of clinical malaria (unconfirmed) and confirmed malaria cases in all the three study wards. There was a significant association between malaria incidence and the climatic variables in Buvuma and Selonga wards at specific lag periods. In Ntalale ward, only precipitation (1- and 3-month lag) and mean temperature (1- and 2-month lag) were significantly associated with incidence at specific lag periods (p climatic conditions in the 1-4 month period prior. As the period of high malaria risk is associated with precipitation and temperature at 1-4 month prior in a seasonal cycle, intensifying malaria control activities over this period will likely contribute to lowering
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Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes
Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.
2013-04-01
In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern
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Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu
2014-08-01
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Tools for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Wildfire Regimes in Forests
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hety Herawati
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Fire is an intrinsic element of many forest ecosystems; it shapes their ecological processes, determines species composition and influences landscape structure. However, wildfires may: have undesirable effects on biodiversity and vegetation coverage; produce carbon emissions to the atmosphere; release smoke affecting human health; and cause loss of lives and property. There have been increasing concerns about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires. Climate change can alter factors that influence the occurrence of fire ignitions, fuel availability and fuel flammability. This review paper aims to identify tools and methods used for gathering information about the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires, forest fuels and the probability of fires. Tools to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on forest fires include: remote sensing, dynamic global vegetation and landscape models, integrated fire-vegetation models, fire danger rating systems, empirical models and fire behavior models. This review outlines each tool in terms of its characteristics, spatial and temporal resolution, limitations and applicability of the results. To enhance and improve tool performance, each must be continuously tested in all types of forest ecosystems.
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Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.
2016-02-01
Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.
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Rockström, J
2004-01-01
Coping with climatic variability for livelihood security is part of everyday life for rural communities in semi-arid and dry sub-humid savannas. Water scarcity caused by rainfall fluctuations is common, causing meteorological droughts and dry spells. However, this paper indicates, based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa and India, that the social impact on rural societies of climatically induced droughts is exaggerated. Instead, water scarcity causing food deficits is more often caused by management induced droughts and dry spells. A conceptual framework to distinguish between manageable and unmanageable droughts is presented. It is suggested that climatic droughts require focus on social resilience building instead of land and water resource management. Focus is then set on the manageable part of climatic variability, namely the almost annual occurrence of dry spells, short 2-4 week periods of no rainfall, affecting farmer yields. On-farm experiences in savannas of sub-Saharan Africa of water harvesting systems for dry spell mitigation are presented. It is shown that bridging dry spells combined with soil fertility management can double and even triple on-farm yield levels. Combined with innovative systems to ensure maximum plant water availability and water uptake capacity, through adoption of soil fertility improvement and conservation tillage systems, there is a clear opportunity to upgrade rainfed farming systems in vulnerable savanna environments, through appropriate local management of climatic variability.
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Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.
Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W
2017-01-01
Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.
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Ortiz, Paulo L; Rivero, Alina; Linares, Yzenia; Pérez, Alina; Vázquez, Juan R
2015-04-01
Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autoregressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 x 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for
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Climate variability and change
Grassl, H
1998-01-01
Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol
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Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Handmer, J.W.; Dovers, S.; Downing, T.E.
1999-01-01
Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines. 32 refs
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Amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Constanza Soledad Carrera
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The objective of this work was to perform a quantitative analysis of the amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables during seed filling. Amino acids were determined from seed samples taken at harvest in 31 multi-environment field trials carried out in Argentina. Total amino acids ranged from 31.69 to 49.14%, and total essential and nonessential amino acids varied from 12.83 to 19.02% and from 18.86 to 31.15%, respectively. Variance components expressed as the percentage of total variation showed that the environment was the most important source of variation for all traits, followed by the genotype x environment interaction. Significant explanatory linear regressions were detected for amino acid content regarding: average daily mean air temperature and cumulative solar radiation, during seed filling; precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration, during the whole reproductive period; and the combinations of these climatic variables. Each amino acid behaves differently according to environmental conditions, indicating compensatory effects among them.
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The effects of global climate variability on water resources and agriculture
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adibe, E.C.
1990-06-01
Widespread improvements in agricultural productivity have been achieved over the last century using a wide range of technological advances. Future improvements, however, are likely to be constrained by the decreasing quality of new lands brought into production, growing limitations on capital for crop expansion and mechanization, and increasing population pressures. On top of these constraints are new uncertainties about future climatic conditions and the effects of anthropogenic climatic changes on water availability. In order to better understand some of the impacts of climatic changes on food security, plausible changes in water supply are explored and the possible effects on food production investigated. The cases discussed here include increases and decreases in both the average and the variability of water resource availability. (author). 30 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs
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Bond, B. J.; Peterson, K.; McKane, R.; Lajtha, K.; Quandt, D. J.; Allen, S. T.; Sell, S.; Daly, C.; Harmon, M. E.; Johnson, S. L.; Spies, T.; Sollins, P.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.
2010-12-01
We are pursuing the ambitious goal of understanding how complex terrain influences the responses of carbon and water cycle processes to climate variability and climate change. Our studies take place in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, an LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) site situated in Oregon’s central-western Cascade Range. Decades of long-term measurements and intensive research have revealed influences of topography on vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and hydrology. More recent research has shown surprising interactions between microclimates and synoptic weather patterns due to cold air drainage and pooling in mountain valleys. Using these data and insights, in addition to a recent LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance and a small sensor network, we are employing process-based models, including “SPA” (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere, developed by Mathew Williams of the University of Edinburgh), and “VELMA” (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Alternatives, developed by Marc Stieglitz and colleagues of the Georgia Institute of Technology) to focus on two important features of mountainous landscapes: heterogeneity (both spatial and temporal) and connectivity (atmosphere-canopy-hillslope-stream). Our research questions include: 1) Do fine-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity result in emergent properties at the basin scale, and if so, what are they? 2) How does connectivity across ecosystem components affect system responses to climate variability and change? Initial results show that for environmental drivers that elicit non-linear ecosystem responses on the plot scale, such as solar radiation, soil depth and soil water content, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity may produce unexpected emergent properties at larger scales. The results from such modeling experiments are necessarily a function of the supporting algorithms. However, comparisons based on models such as SPA and VELMA that operate at much different spatial scales
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MArch Duzan Doepel
2012-01-01
After decades of being deemed the idealistic hobby of a niche group of fanatics, Green has finally entered the mainstream of the architectural service industry. However, most architects and urban planners are not yet adequately equipped to translate the challenges of climate change and resource and
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Astrocitary niches in human adult medulla oblongata.
Rusu, Mugurel Constantin; Dermengiu, Dan; Loreto, Carla; Motoc, Andrei Gheorghe Marius; Pop, Elena
2013-04-01
Astrocytes are considered as neuromodulators of the CNS. Whereas experimental studies on astrocitary functions are gaining importance, the anatomy of the astrocitary niches in the human CNS has been overlooked. The study was performed on the brainstem of 10 adult cadavers. We aimed to determine astrocitary niches in the human medulla oblongata using immunohistochemical labeling with vimentin and also CD34 immunostaining to accurately diagnose associated microvessels. Niches rich in astrocytes were identified as follows: (a) the superficial layer of astrocytes, ventral and ventrolateral, in the rostral medulla oblongata; (b) the median raphe; (c) medullary nuclei: arcuate nucleus, area postrema, nucleus of the solitary tract; (d) the subependymal zone (SEZ, caudal medulla) and subventricular zone (SVZ, rostral medulla). Astrocytes were scarce in the ventrolateral medulla, and mostly present within the pyramidal tract and the olivary nucleus. Apart from the SEZ and SVZ, the brainstem niches of astrocytes mostly overlap those regions known to perform roles as central respiratory chemoreceptors. The astrocytes of the SEZ and SVZ, which are known as stem cell niches, are related to an increased microvascular density. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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Cannon, Alex J.
2018-01-01
Most bias correction algorithms used in climatology, for example quantile mapping, are applied to univariate time series. They neglect the dependence between different variables. Those that are multivariate often correct only limited measures of joint dependence, such as Pearson or Spearman rank correlation. Here, an image processing technique designed to transfer colour information from one image to another—the N-dimensional probability density function transform—is adapted for use as a multivariate bias correction algorithm (MBCn) for climate model projections/predictions of multiple climate variables. MBCn is a multivariate generalization of quantile mapping that transfers all aspects of an observed continuous multivariate distribution to the corresponding multivariate distribution of variables from a climate model. When applied to climate model projections, changes in quantiles of each variable between the historical and projection period are also preserved. The MBCn algorithm is demonstrated on three case studies. First, the method is applied to an image processing example with characteristics that mimic a climate projection problem. Second, MBCn is used to correct a suite of 3-hourly surface meteorological variables from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) across a North American domain. Components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, a complicated set of multivariate indices that characterizes the risk of wildfire, are then calculated and verified against observed values. Third, MBCn is used to correct biases in the spatial dependence structure of CanRCM4 precipitation fields. Results are compared against a univariate quantile mapping algorithm, which neglects the dependence between variables, and two multivariate bias correction algorithms, each of which corrects a different form of inter-variable correlation structure. MBCn outperforms these alternatives, often by a large margin
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Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G; Yee, Wee L
2014-06-01
Sweet cherries, Prunus avium (L.) L., grown in the western United States are exported to many countries around the world. Some of these countries have enforced strict quarantine rules and trade restrictions owing to concerns about the potential establishment and subsequent spread of western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran (Diptera: Tephritidae), a major quarantine pest of sweet cherry. We used 1) niche models (CLIMEX and MaxEnt) to map the climatic suitability, 2) North Carolina State University-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Plant Pest Forecasting System to examine chilling requirement, and 3) host distribution and availability to assess the potential for establishment of R. indifferens in areas of western North America where it currently does not exist and eight current or potential fresh sweet cherry markets: Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Results from niche models conformed well to the current distribution of R. indifferens in western North America. MaxEnt and CLIMEX models had high performance and predicted climatic suitability in some of the countries (e.g., Andean range in Colombia and Venezuela, northern and northeastern India, central Taiwan, and parts of Vietnam). However, our results showed no potential for establishment of R. indifferens in Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam when the optimal chilling requirement to break diapause (minimum temperature policy makers.
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Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.
2012-12-01
Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these