WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate surface hydrology

  1. Climate and surface water hydrology baseline data for Aurora Mine EIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    A climate and hydrology database was assembled to describe the existing climatic and surface water hydrological characteristics of the proposed Aurora Mine area in Leases 10, 12, 13, 31, and 34 east of the Athabasca River near Fort McKay. The study was based upon data available from the regional hydrometeorological monitoring network operated by the Governments of Canada and Alberta. The study also included the installation and monitoring of one climate station and five streamflow gauging stations on small watersheds in the area. The representative climatic and hydrologic characteristics of the area, including precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, temperature and wind, were determined. Streamflow characteristics such as flood frequencies, low flow frequencies, water yield and flow durations representative of large gauged watersheds within the study area were also determined. The results offer a good basis for preliminary design of surface water management systems. It was recommended that the monitoring program should be continued to monitor potential environmental impacts of proposed development activities. 9 refs., 29 tabs., 32 figs.

  2. The Influence of Runoff and Surface Hydrology on Titan's Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, S.; Lora, J. M.; Mitchell, J.; Moon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Titan's surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle, producing characteristic weather and seasonal climate patterns. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane "wetlands" reservoirs realistically produce observed cloud features and temperature profiles of Titan's atmosphere, whereas "aquaplanet" simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan's large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow of a global or regional methane table. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan's hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan's global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan

  3. The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate

  4. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  5. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  6. Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

  7. Using isotopes to improve impact and hydrological predictions of land-surface schemes in global climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate model (GCM) predictions of the impact of large-scale land-use change date back to 1984 as do the earliest isotopic studies of large-basin hydrology. Despite this coincidence in interest and geography, with both papers focussed on the Amazon, there have been few studies that have tried to exploit isotopic information with the goal of improving climate model simulations of the land-surface. In this paper we analyze isotopic results from the IAEA global data base specifically with the goal of identifying signatures of potential value for improving global and regional climate model simulations of the land-surface. Evaluation of climate model predictions of the impacts of deforestation of the Amazon has been shown to be of significance by recent results which indicate impacts occurring distant from the Amazon i.e. tele-connections causing climate change elsewhere around the globe. It is suggested that these could be similar in magnitude and extent to the global impacts of ENSO events. Validation of GCM predictions associated with Amazonian deforestation are increasingly urgently required because of the additional effects of other aspects of climate change, particularly synergies occurring between forest removal and greenhouse gas increases, especially CO 2 . Here we examine three decades distributions of deuterium excess across the Amazon and use the results to evaluate the relative importance of the fractionating (partial evaporation) and non-fractionating (transpiration) processes. These results illuminate GCM scenarios of importance to the regional climate and hydrology: (i) the possible impact of increased stomatal resistance in the rainforest caused by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 [4]; and (ii) the consequences of the combined effects of deforestation and global warming on the regions climate and hydrology

  8. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

    2016-03-10

    The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

  9. Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

    2017-12-01

    Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface

  10. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  11. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  12. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  13. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  14. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-08-01

    Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  16. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  17. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  18. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Simpevarp 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-04-01

    This report presents and evaluates the site investigations and primary data on meteorology, surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that are available in the Simpevarp 1.2 'data freeze'. The main objective is to update the previous Simpevarp 1.1 description of the meteorological, surface hydrological and near-surface hydrogeological conditions in the Simpevarp area. Based on the Simpevarp 1.2 dataset, an updated conceptual and descriptive model of the surface and near-surface water flow conditions in the Simpevarp area is presented. In cases where site investigation data are not yet available, regional and/or generic data are used as input to the modelling. GIS- and process-based tools, used for initial quantitative flow modelling, are also presented. The objectives of this initial quantitative modelling are to illustrate, quantify and support the site descriptive model, and also to produce relevant input data to the ecological systems modelling within the SKB SurfaceNet framework.For the Simpevarp 1.2 model, the relevant site investigations include the establishment of one local meteorological station and surface-hydrological stations for discharge measurements, delineation and description of catchment areas, manual discharge measurements in water courses, slug tests in groundwater monitoring wells, and manual groundwater level measurements. In addition, other investigations have also contributed to the modelling, providing data on geometry (including topography), data from surface-based geological investigations and boreholes in Quaternary deposits, and data on the hydrogeological properties of the bedrock. The conceptual and descriptive modelling includes an identification and basic description of type areas, domains and interfaces between domains within the model area. The surface and near-surface flow system is described, including the assignment of hydrogeological properties to HSDs (Hydraulic Soil Domains) of Quaternary deposits based on a

  19. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  20. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  1. Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2016-12-01

    Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

  2. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  3. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

  4. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  5. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pumo, Dario, E-mail: dario.pumo@unipa.it; Caracciolo, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.caracciolo@unipa.it; Viola, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Noto, Leonardo V., E-mail: leonardo.noto@unipa.it

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  6. Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2014-01-01

    the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological......To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling...... impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale...

  7. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  8. Building hydrologic information systems to promote climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay higlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate adaptation requires information about climate and land-surface conditions – spatially distributed, and at scales of human influence (the field scale). This article describes a project aimed at combining meteorological data, satellite remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and downscaled clima...

  9. Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which

  10. Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin

    2016-01-01

    simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface...

  11. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  12. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  13. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

  14. Land surface modelling in hydrology and meteorology – lessons learned from the Baltic Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Graham

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available By both tradition and purpose, the land parameterization schemes of hydrological and meteorological models differ greatly. Meteorologists are concerned primarily with solving the energy balance, whereas hydrologists are most interested in the water balance. Meteorological climate models typically have multi-layered soil parameterisation that solves temperature fluxes numerically with diffusive equations. The same approach is carried over to a similar treatment of water transport. Hydrological models are not usually so interested in soil temperatures, but must provide a reasonable representation of soil moisture to get runoff right. To treat the heterogeneity of the soil, many hydrological models use only one layer with a statistical representation of soil variability. Such a hydrological model can be used on large scales while taking subgrid variability into account. Hydrological models also include lateral transport of water – an imperative if' river discharge is to be estimated. The concept of a complexity chain for coupled modelling systems is introduced, together with considerations for mixing model components. Under BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, a large-scale hydrological model of runoff in the Baltic Basin is used to review atmospheric climate model simulations. This incorporates both the runoff record and hydrological modelling experience into atmospheric model development. Results from two models are shown. A conclusion is that the key to improved models may be less complexity. Perhaps the meteorological models should keep their multi-layered approach for modelling soil temperature, but add a simpler, yet physically consistent, hydrological approach for modelling snow processes and water transport in the soil. Keywords: land surface modelling; hydrological modelling; atmospheric climate models; subgrid variability; Baltic Basin

  15. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  16. The hydrological cycle and its influence on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chahine, M T [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (USA). Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    1992-10-01

    The uncertainties in assessing the effects of global-scale perturbations to the climate system are due primarily to an inadequate understanding of the hydrological cycle - the cycling of water in the oceans, atmosphere and biosphere. Overcoming this problem necessitates new ways of regarding a field traditionally divided amongst several disciplines, as well as new instrumentation and methods of data collection. The author aims to provide an appraisal of current theoretical and observational understanding of the roles of the hydrological cycle in the climate system, and its intimate connection to the energy cycle. An attempt is made to show why the hydrological cycle has emerged as the central element in studies of climate change, and to anticipate the main advances expected in modelling observations in the coming decade, along with areas where improvements will still be required. 62 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  18. Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate

  19. Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

  20. Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofan Zeng

    Full Text Available The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

  1. Climate impacts on the hydrology of prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko; Rowsell, R.D.

    1991-01-01

    A study was carried out in the St. Denis National Wildlife Area, 45 km east of Saskatoon, to observe the hydrological processes and the temporal and spatial variability of slough responses to climate. One slough was instrumented for detailed study, showing that the high water level in spring was supported by snowmelt. In summer, rainfall was the major source of water supply, but was exceeded by losses to evaporation and groundwater recharge, leading to a decline of the water table and complete drying by June 13th. The duration that water remains in sloughs varies temporally and spatially. Ephemeral sloughs, deriving water mainly from snowmelt, tend to occupy higher ground, temporary sloughs rely on precipitation and surface runoff, and may receive groundwater discharge during wetter years. Permanent sloughs often occupy lower areas, receiving water from precipitation, lateral runoff, and groundwater discharge which buffers them from year to year fluctuations in precipitation. Tree ring analyses showed that meltwater is the major factor influencing tree growth, correlating the spatial variability of slough inundation to the temporal variability of winter snowfall. A study of slough hydrology is important to the understanding of the responses of Prairie wetlands to climatic variability and change. 17 refs., 2 figs

  2. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  3. Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

    2010-12-01

    When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In

  4. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

  5. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

  6. Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. A. J. Van Lanen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale hydrological drought studies have demonstrated spatial and temporal patterns in observed trends, and considerable difference exists among global hydrological models in their ability to reproduce these patterns. In this study a controlled modeling experiment has been set up to systematically explore the role of climate and physical catchment structure (soils and groundwater systems to better understand underlying drought-generating mechanisms. Daily climate data (1958–2001 of 1495 grid cells across the world were selected that represent Köppen–Geiger major climate types. These data were fed into a conceptual hydrological model. Nine realizations of physical catchment structure were defined for each grid cell, i.e., three soils with different soil moisture supply capacity and three groundwater systems (quickly, intermediately and slowly responding. Hydrological drought characteristics (number, duration and standardized deficit volume were identified from time series of daily discharge. Summary statistics showed that the equatorial and temperate climate types (A- and C-climates had about twice as many drought events as the arid and polar types (B- and E-climates, and the durations of more extreme droughts were about half the length. Selected soils under permanent grassland were found to have a minor effect on hydrological drought characteristics, whereas groundwater systems had major impact. Groundwater systems strongly controlled the hydrological drought characteristics of all climate types, but particularly those of the wetter A-, C- and D-climates because of higher recharge. The median number of droughts for quickly responding groundwater systems was about three times higher than for slowly responding systems. Groundwater systems substantially affected the duration, particularly of the more extreme drought events. Bivariate probability distributions of drought duration and standardized deficit for combinations of K

  7. Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjiang Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological records. We found different responses of runoff production to regional warming trends among three basins with similar climate, topography and vegetation cover but different wetland proportions. The basin with larger wetland proportion (40.1% had a lower mean runoff coefficient (0.173 ± 0.006, and also showed increasingly lower runoff level (−3.9% year−1, p = 0.002 than the two adjacent basins. The satellite-based observations showed an increasing trend of annual non-frozen period, especially in the wetland-dominated region (2.64 day·year−1, p < 0.10, and a strong extension of vegetation growing-season (0.26–0.41 day·year−1, p < 0.10. Relatively strong increasing trends in evapotranspiration (ET (~1.00 mm·year−1, p < 0.01 and the vertical temperature gradient above ground surface (0.043 °C·year−1, p < 0.05 in wetland-dominant areas were documented from satellite-based ET observations and weather station records. These results indicate recent surface drying and runoff reduction of alpine wetlands, and their potential vulnerability to degradation with continued climate warming.

  8. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  9. Development of Representative Rainfall Periods for Green Infrastructure Design: Connecting the Dots Between Climate, Urban Hydrology and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, C. M.; Traver, R.; Wadzuk, B.

    2017-12-01

    Analysis of local-to-regional climate data is critical in understanding how changing patterns in rainfall and other atmospheric conditions can affect urban hydrology. Urbanization has caused hydrologic and ecologic modifications to our land surfaces, and altered the dynamics of urban water cycle in complex ways. Green infrastructure (GI) systems, in their simplest form, reduce runoff and flooding, prevent combined sewer overflows and improve quality of receiving waters. However, when viewed through a more holistic lens, GI systems sit at the nexus of hydrology, climate and energy, yet are rarely designed to account for the impacts of these intersections. We must assess urban hydrologic systems beyond their response to a single event or design storm, incorporating multiple temporal scales and all hydrologic processes. This is of utmost importance to design and characterization of urban GI systems because the resilience of these systems will be dictated by their ability to adapt to future behavior of extreme weather patterns and climate. In this study, we characterize long-term hydrologic conditions in Philadelphia to identify periods of record that are most representative of regional climate characteristics, including a representative rainfall year and longer representative periods. Utility of these datasets will be demonstrated by showing that GI systems are able to sustain effective performance for most expected annual precipitation events. Connections between atmospheric (precipitation and temperature) patterns, GI systems and potential removal mechanisms in the urban hydrologic cycle will be presented for Philadelphia and cities with similar climate characteristics. Establishing such connections is critically needed to not only validate what is already known about urban GI, but more importantly, to advance theory and practice by linking the hydrologic benefits of urban GI to broader concepts such as risk, mitigation of extreme events and sustainable communities.

  10. Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

    2018-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

  11. Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2008-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

  12. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  13. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  14. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  15. Assessment of the effect of climate change on the hydrological cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

    , implying that when doing a future impact study, hydrological predictions could be compromised when using hydrological models calibrated on present time series. The hydrological response to a future high-end emission scenario was also explored. The hydrological model simulations and drought indices analyses...... showed longer and dryer periods leading to enhanced root zone dryness, lowered river discharge, and decreasing groundwater head elevation increasing the risk of stream flow drought and crop failure. In contrast, wetter winters will lead to increased flood risks. Finally, the influence of choosing...... a specific impact study setup was also investigated by simulating and analysing results from three factors; four climate models in combinations with three hydrological models and four land use scenarios. Results showed that the climate model was the dominant uncertainty factor on stream flow and hydraulic...

  16. Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2014-05-01

    Most of the climate models projections for the Mediterranean basin have showed that the region will likely to experience a general tendency towards drier climate conditions with decreases in total precipitation, increases in temperature, alterations in the rainfall extreme events and droughts frequency (IPCC, 2007; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; López-Moreno et al., 2011). The region is already suffering from water resources scarcity and vulnerability which are expected to amplify in the next century (Ludwig et al., 2011; Schneider et al., 2013). Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Mediterranean catchments is with a major concern not only to scientist but also to water resources policy makers and general public. However, most of the climate change impact studies focus on the flow regime on global or regional scale rather than on the catchment scale which is more useful and more appropriate to guide practical mitigation and adaptation policy. This is because hydro-climate modeling at the local scale is confronted to the variability in climate, topography, geology, lack of observations and anthropogenic activities within the catchment. Furthermore, it is well recognized that hydrological and climate models forecasts are always affected with uncertainty making the assessment of climate change impact on Mediterranean catchment hydrology more challenging. This work aims to assess the impact of climate change on a Mediterranean catchment located in North Africa (the Chiba catchment in northeast Tunisia) through a conjunctive use of physically based hydrological model (SWAT) driven with four climate models*. Quantification of the impact of climate change has been conducted by means of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (Richter et al., 1996) which are also ecologically meaningful. By comparing changes in these indicators in the reference period (1971-2000) to the projected ones in the future (2041-2070), it was possible to draw

  17. Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

    2007-12-01

    A goal of the Everglades National Park (ENP) restoration project is to ensure that the ecological health of the ENP improves as a direct result of management activities. Achieving hydrologic targets through the proper timing and amount of releases from control structures is a first step in the management process. Significant climate and weather variations in the region influence the ability to make releases and also determine the ecological outcomes. An assessment of the relative impact of climate variations and water releases to ENP in determining ecological outcomes is consequently a key to the evaluation of the success or failure of any restoration plan. Seasonal water depths in ENP depend on managed surface water releases from control structures and on direct rainfall. Here we link wading bird foraging patterns - a fundamental aspect of Everglades' ecology - to hydrologic management and climate variability in the National Park. Our objective is multifold. First, we relate the water levels at P33 and Shark Slough to the synoptic hydrologic conditions. Second, we develop a statistical model relating water levels at a station in central Shark Slough (P33) to wading birds foraging patterns throughout ENP. We attempt to apply a Hierarchical Bayesian scheme to a time series of wading bird to provide an uncertainty distribution of the population over specified time periods given hydrologic condition. Third, we develop a set of hydrologic index derived by recorded water level at P33 for a use of the statistical model of wading birds as an input. Our study will focus on great egret and white ibis that are major species among wading birds in the ENP. The great egret and white ibis prediction predicted by the model using the proposed predictors exhibits strong correlation with the observed streamflow, with an correlation 0.8.

  18. What will be the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology in France by 2070?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauveau, Mathilde; Chazot, Sebastien; David, Julian; Norotte, Thomas; Perrin, Charles; Bourgin, Pierre-Yves; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Rouchy, Nathalie; Martin, Eric; Maugis, Pascal; De Lacaze, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Within the Explore 2070 project, an evaluation of the possible impacts of climate change on surface water between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period was carried out in continental France and i n overseas departments on the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, seven general circulation models an d two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J). In continental France, results indicate: (1) a possible increase in ai r temperature between +1.4 deg. C and +3 deg. C; (2) an uncertain evolution of precipitation, most models however agreeing on a decreasing trend in summer precipitation; (3) a significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale, especially pronounced in the Seine-Normandie and Adour-Garonne districts; (4) a strong decrease in summer lo w flows in most basins; (5) more heterogeneous and less significant evolutions for floods. A special care was given to the quantification of the uncertainties linked to these results. They provide an indication of the significance of projected changes. The evolutions calculated in the overseas zones can be considered non-significant given the level of uncertainty linked to the hydro-climatic modelling chain. These results urge to implement adaptation strategies based on a better management of water resources, among others. (authors)

  19. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    2016-01-29

    Jan 29, 2016 ... The programme focuses on hydrology of mountains, which provide water around 40 % of the world population. Changes in temperature and precipitation have in recent years led to the retreat of glaciers in mountains. Climatic changes do not only affect glaciers or the nival zone; a change in climatic ...

  20. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mondal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  1. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and

  2. Climate and Hydrological Change Characteristics and Applicability of GLDAS Data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological cycle is particularly sensitive to and is greatly affected by global climate change. In addition, runoff change has a strong influence on the hydrological cycle and migration of biogenic substances. The Yarlung Zangbo River basin in China is a typical basin for which climate and hydrological data are lacking. Land surface models can provide data for studying land surface substance and energy circulation, which are meaningful to face climate change. The midstream region of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, which is strongly affected by climate change, was selected as the study area. First, the observed mean temperature, precipitation and runoff characteristics were analysed. Second, after combining the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS and the water balance equation, we simulated climate and hydrological processes for the same time period. Finally, the correlation and error between GLDAS and observed data were analysed to verify applicability of the GLDAS data, and the impacts of climate factors on runoff were discussed. The results revealed that under the background of global warming, precipitation, temperature, and runoff changed significantly and showed strong consistency during the research period. Mean monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff exhibited clear cyclical fluctuations of approximately 12 months, and they all tended to increase. GLDAS is not a good system to describe the land surface conditions of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin all the time. However, within a certain time period, GLDAS data have a good applicability in the basin. Thereinto, the GLDAS mean monthly precipitation was moderately correlated with observed precipitation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75. GLDAS mean monthly temperature was highly correlated with observed data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Based on the Brunke ranking method, it indicates that GLDAS-Noah-based runoff data were closer to observed runoff data

  3. CORDEX - a treasure trove of open climate data for hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, Eleanor; Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellström, Erik

    2015-04-01

    The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was initiated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to coordinate high-resolution Regional Climate Modelling and provide a set of regional climate projections for the majority of global land regions. Additionally making this data available, and importantly useable, to impact and adaptation communities was a fundamental goal. Phase I of CORDEX, which came to a close in November 2013, was successful in developing a framework in which scientists around the world adopted a common protocol to guide the development of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) and empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) projections, and the intercomparison of these projections, on each continent, with a particular focus on the African region. As a result of these intensive activities by groups across the globe more than 47000 quality checked open datasets are now freely available to users through the searchable Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The integration of this data into large scale hydrological modelling is in action within the Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute (SMHI) exemplifying the great potential use of this resource to the hydrological community. The aim of CORDEX Phase II is to enhance the dialogue with end-users so as to meet the growing demand for tailored regional climate information. Here, greater interaction between the CORDEX and hydrological modelling community can only prove hugely beneficial leading to greater protection for those vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate.

  4. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael G.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-03-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985-2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage

  5. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderhoof, Melanie; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

    2018-01-01

    Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic

  6. Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. K. Vanderhoof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1 quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP in the United States, and (2 explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015. The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density. To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less

  7. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

  8. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  9. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

  10. Surface runoff in flat terrain: How field topography and runoff generating processes control hydrological connectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Appels, W.M.; Bogaart, P.W.; Bogaart, P.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2016-01-01

    In flat lowland agricultural catchments in temperate climate zones with highly permeable sandy soils, surface runoff is a rare process with a large impact on the redistribution of sediments and solutes and stream water quality. We examine hydrological data obtained on two field sites in the

  11. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  12. Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-09-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is developed to improve the land-surface sensible and latent heat calculations in global climate models (GCMs). The processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff are explicitly included in the model. The amount of detail in the hydrologic calculations is restricted to a level appropriate for use in a GCM, but each of the aforementioned processes is modeled on the basis of the underlying physical principles. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM are used as inputs for off-line tests of the ground hydrology model in four 8° × 10° regions (Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India). Soil and vegetation input parameters are calculated as area-weighted means over the 8° × 10° gridhox. This compositing procedure is tested by comparing resulting hydrological quantities to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1° × 1° cells which comprise the 8° × 10° gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure works well except in the Sahel where lower soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce more variability in hydrological quantities, indicating that a resolution better than 8° × 10° is needed for that region. Modeled annual and diurnal hydrological cycles compare well with observations for Brazil, where real world data are available. The sensitivity of the ground hydrology model to several of its input parameters was tested; it was found to be most sensitive to the fraction of land covered by vegetation and least sensitive to the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential.

  13. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  14. A Hydrological Response Analysis Considering Climatic Variability: Case Study of Hunza Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Laghari

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological response of mountainous catchments particularly dependent on melting runoff is very vulnerable to climatic variability. This study is an attempt to assess hydrological response towards climatic variability of the Hunza catchment located in the mountainous chain of greater Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH region. The hydrological response is analyzed through changes in snowmelt, ice melt and total runoff simulated through the application of the hydrological modeling system PREVAH under hypothetically developed climate change scenarios. The developed scenarios are based on changes in precipitation (Prp and temperature (Tmp and their combination. Under all the warmer scenarios, the increase in temperature systematically decreases the mean annual snow melt and increases significantly glacier melt volume. Temperature changes from 1°C to 4°C produce a large increase in spring and summer runoff, while no major variation was observed in the winter and autumn runoff. The maximum seasonal changes recorded under the Tmp+4°C, Prp+10% scenario.

  15. The role of climate change in regulating Arctic permafrost peatland hydrological and vegetation change over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hui; Piilo, Sanna R.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Väliranta, Minna M.

    2018-02-01

    Climate warming has inevitable impacts on the vegetation and hydrological dynamics of high-latitude permafrost peatlands. These impacts in turn determine the role of these peatlands in the global biogeochemical cycle. Here, we used six active layer peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in Northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland to investigate permafrost peatland dynamics over the last millennium. Testate amoeba and plant macrofossils were used as proxies for hydrological and vegetation changes. Our results show that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Russian sites experienced short-term permafrost thawing and this induced alternating dry-wet habitat changes eventually followed by desiccation. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) both sites generally supported dry-hummock habitats, at least partly driven by permafrost aggradation. However, proxy data suggest that occasionally, MCA habitat conditions were drier than during the LIA, implying that evapotranspiration may create important additional eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms under warm conditions. All sites showed a tendency towards dry conditions as inferred from both proxies starting either from ca. 100 years ago or in the past few decades after slight permafrost thawing, suggesting that recent warming has stimulated surface desiccation rather than deeper permafrost thawing. This study shows links between two important controls over hydrology and vegetation changes in high-latitude peatlands: direct temperature-induced surface layer response and deeper permafrost layer-related dynamics. These data provide important backgrounds for predictions of Arctic permafrost peatlands and related feedback mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of increased evapotranspiration and thus provide an additional perspective to understanding of peatland-climate feedback mechanisms.

  16. A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

    2017-01-01

    For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

  17. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  18. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

  19. Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

    2013-04-01

    Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this

  20. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  1. Quantifying the effects of climate and post-fire landscape change on hydrologic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steimke, A.; Han, B.; Brandt, J.; Som Castellano, R.; Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonally snow-dominated, forested mountain watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as the climate warms. Changes in vegetation also affect the runoff response of watersheds. The largest driver of vegetation change in many mountainous regions is wildfire, whose occurrence is affected by both climate and land management decisions. Here, we quantify how direct (i.e. changes in precipitation and temperature) and indirect (i.e. changing fire regimes) effects of climate change influence hydrologic parameters such as dates of peak streamflow, annual discharge, and snowpack levels. We used the Boise River Basin, ID as a model laboratory to calculate the relative magnitude of change stemming from direct and indirect effects of climate change. This basin is relevant to study as it is well-instrumented and major drainages have experienced burning at different spatial and temporal intervals, aiding in model calibration. We built a hydrology-based integrated model of the region using a multiagent simulation framework, Envision. We used a modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model and calibrated it to historic streamflow and snowpack observations. We combined a diverse set of climate projections with wildfire scenarios (low vs. high) representing two distinct intervals in the regional historic fire record. In fire simulations, we altered land cover coefficients to reflect a burned state post-fire, which decreased overall evapotranspiration rates and increased water yields. However, direct climate effects had a larger signal on annual variations of hydrologic parameters. By comparing and analyzing scenario outputs, we identified links and sensitivities between land cover and regional hydrology in the context of a changing climate, with potential implications for local land and water managers. In future

  2. HydroClimATe: hydrologic and climatic analysis toolkit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Jesse; Hanson, Randall T.; Predmore, Steven K.

    2014-01-01

    The potential consequences of climate variability and climate change have been identified as major issues for the sustainability and availability of the worldwide water resources. Unlike global climate change, climate variability represents deviations from the long-term state of the climate over periods of a few years to several decades. Currently, rich hydrologic time-series data are available, but the combination of data preparation and statistical methods developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Groundwater Resources Program is relatively unavailable to hydrologists and engineers who could benefit from estimates of climate variability and its effects on periodic recharge and water-resource availability. This report documents HydroClimATe, a computer program for assessing the relations between variable climatic and hydrologic time-series data. HydroClimATe was developed for a Windows operating system. The software includes statistical tools for (1) time-series preprocessing, (2) spectral analysis, (3) spatial and temporal analysis, (4) correlation analysis, and (5) projections. The time-series preprocessing tools include spline fitting, standardization using a normal or gamma distribution, and transformation by a cumulative departure. The spectral analysis tools include discrete Fourier transform, maximum entropy method, and singular spectrum analysis. The spatial and temporal analysis tool is empirical orthogonal function analysis. The correlation analysis tools are linear regression and lag correlation. The projection tools include autoregressive time-series modeling and generation of many realizations. These tools are demonstrated in four examples that use stream-flow discharge data, groundwater-level records, gridded time series of precipitation data, and the Multivariate ENSO Index.

  3. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  4. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  5. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  6. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  7. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 21; Issue 1. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change. Information and Announcements Volume 21 Issue 1 January 2016 pp 106-107. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  8. Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.; Flanner, M. G.; Lau, William K.; Ming, J.; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Mo; Warren, Stephen G.; Zhang, Rudong

    2015-01-01

    Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

  9. Interactions between large-scale modes of climate and their relationship with Australian climate and hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whan, K. R.; Lindesay, J. A.; Timbal, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Williams, E.

    2010-12-01

    Australia’s natural environment is adapted to low rainfall availability and high variability but human systems are less able to adapt to variability in the hydrological cycle. Understanding the mechanisms underlying drought persistence and severity is vital to contextualising future climate change. Multiple external forcings mean the mechanisms of drought occurrence in south-eastern Australian are complex. The key influences on SEA climate are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the sub-tropical ridge (STR); each of these large-scale climate modes (LSCM) has been studied widely. The need for research into the interactions among the modes has been noted [1], although to date this has received limited attention. Relationships between LSCM and hydrometeorological variability are nonlinear, making linearity assumptions underlying usual statistical techniques (e.g. correlation, principle components analysis) questionable. In the current research a statistical technique that can deal with nonlinear interactions is applied to a new dataset enabling a full examination of the Australian water balance. The Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) dataset models the Australian water balance on a fine grid [2]. Hydrological parameters (e.g. soil moisture, evaporation, runoff) are modelled from meteorological data, allowing the complete Australian water balance (climate and hydrology) to be examined and the mechanisms of drought to be studied holistically. Classification and regression trees (CART) are a powerful regression-based technique that is capable of accounting for nonlinear effects. Although it has limited previous application in climate research [3] this methodology is particularly informative in cases with multiple predictors and nonlinear relationships such as climate variability. Statistical relationships between variables are the basis for the decision rules in CART that are used to split

  10. Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

    1998-09-01

    Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

  11. The relative influence of climate and catchment properties on hydrological drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a

  12. Effect of water table dynamics on land surface hydrologic memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S.

    2010-11-01

    The representation of groundwater dynamics in land surface models has received considerable attention in recent years. Most studies have found that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component because of the additional supply of water to the root zone. However, the effect of groundwater on land surface hydrologic memory (persistence) has not been explored thoroughly. In this study we investigate the effect of water table dynamics on National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model hydrologic simulations in terms of land surface hydrologic memory. Unlike soil water or evapotranspiration, results show that land surface hydrologic memory does not always increase after adding a groundwater component. In regions where the water table level is intermediate, land surface hydrologic memory can even decrease, which occurs when soil moisture and capillary rise from groundwater are not in phase with each other. Further, we explore the hypothesis that in addition to atmospheric forcing, groundwater variations may also play an important role in affecting land surface hydrologic memory. Analyses show that feedbacks of groundwater on land surface hydrologic memory can be positive, negative, or neutral, depending on water table dynamics. In regions where the water table is shallow, the damping process of soil moisture variations by groundwater is not significant, and soil moisture variations are mostly controlled by random noise from atmospheric forcing. In contrast, in regions where the water table is very deep, capillary fluxes from groundwater are small, having limited potential to affect soil moisture variations. Therefore, a positive feedback of groundwater to land surface hydrologic memory is observed in a transition zone between deep and shallow water tables, where capillary fluxes act as a buffer by reducing high-frequency soil moisture variations resulting in longer land surface hydrologic memory.

  13. The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

    2009-08-01

    SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other

  14. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  15. Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

    2017-08-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

  16. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  17. Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system used in the CNRM-CM6 climate model for the next CMIP6 exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decharme, Bertrand; Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Minvielle, Marie; Colin, Jeanne; Delire, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The land surface hydrology represents an active component of the climate system. It is likely to influence the water and energy exchanges at the land surface, the ocean salinity and temperature at the mouth of the largest rivers, and the climate at least at the regional scale. In climate models, the continental hydrology is simulated via Land Surface Models (LSM), which compute water and energy budgets at the surface, coupled to River Routing Model (RRM), which convert the runoff simulated by the LSMs into river discharge in order to transfer the continental fresh water into the oceans and then to close the global hydrological cycle. Validating these Continental Hydrological Systems (CHS) at the global scale is therefore a crucial task, which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. In the CNRM-CM6 climate model of Météo-France, that will be used for the next Coupled Climate Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) exercise, the land surface hydrology is simulated using the ISBA-TRIP CHS coupled via the OASIS-MCT coupler. The ISBA LSM solves explicitly the one dimensional Fourier law for soil temperature and the mixed form of the Richards equation for soil moisture using a 14-layers discretization over 12m depths. For the snowpack, a discretization using 12 layers allows the explicit representation of some snow key processes as its viscosity, its compaction due to wind, its age and its albedo on the visible and near infrared spectra. The TRIP RRM uses a global river channel network at 0.5° resolution. It is based on a three prognostic equations for the surface stream water, the seasonal floodplains, and the groundwater. The streamflow velocity is computed using the Maning's formula. The floodplain reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the river bankfull height and vice-versa. The flood interacts with the ISBA soil hydrology through infiltration and with

  18. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  19. Hydrology of prairie wetlands: Understanding the integrated surface-water and groundwater processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Masaki; van der Kamp, Garth; Rosenberry, Donald O.

    2016-01-01

    Wetland managers and policy makers need to make decisions based on a sound scientific understanding of hydrological and ecological functions of wetlands. This article presents an overview of the hydrology of prairie wetlands intended for managers, policy makers, and researchers new to this field (e.g., graduate students), and a quantitative conceptual framework for understanding the hydrological functions of prairie wetlands and their responses to changes in climate and land use. The existence of prairie wetlands in the semi-arid environment of the Prairie-Pothole Region (PPR) depends on the lateral inputs of runoff water from their catchments because mean annual potential evaporation exceeds precipitation in the PPR. Therefore, it is critically important to consider wetlands and catchments as highly integrated hydrological units. The water balance of individual wetlands is strongly influenced by runoff from the catchment and the exchange of groundwater between the central pond and its moist margin. Land-use practices in the catchment have a sensitive effect on runoff and hence the water balance. Surface and subsurface storage and connectivity among individual wetlands controls the diversity of pond permanence within a wetland complex, resulting in a variety of eco-hydrological functionalities necessary for maintaining the integrity of prairie-wetland ecosystems.

  20. Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kaisheng; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Xiao, Dengpan

    2016-01-01

    The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. PMID:27647454

  1. Climate Variability and Its Impact on Forest Hydrology on South Carolina Coastal Plain, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the changes in hydrology of coastal forested wetlands induced by climate change is fundamental for developing strategies to sustain their functions and services. This study examined 60 years of climatic observations and 30 years of hydrological data, collected at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF) in coastal South Carolina. We also applied a physically-...

  2. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Immerzeel, W.W.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Konz, M.; Shresta, A.B.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high

  3. Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sidong Zeng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

  4. A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective Weather and Climate Simulations for Environmental Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem mo...

  5. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  6. Sensitivity of wetland hydrology to external climate forcing in central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Donders, Timme H.; Pearce, Christof; Cremer, Holger; Gaiser, Evelyn E.; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2015-11-01

    Available proxy records from the Florida peninsula give a varying view on hydrological changes during the late Holocene. Here we evaluate the consistency and sensitivity of local wetland records in relation to hydrological changes over the past 5 ka based on pollen and diatom proxies from peat cores in Highlands Hammock State Park, central Florida. Around 5 cal ka BP, a dynamic floodplain environment is present. Subsequently, a wetland forest establishes, followed by a change to persistent wet conditions between 2.5 and 2.0 ka. Long hydroperiods remain despite gradual succession and basin infilling with maximum wet conditions between 1.3 and 1.0 ka. The wet phase and subsequent strong drying over the last millennium, as indicated by shifts in both pollen and diatom assemblages, can be linked to the early Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, driven by regionally higher sea-surface temperatures and a temporary northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Changes during the 20th century are the result of constructions intended to protect the Highlands Hammock State Park from wildfires. The multiple cores and proxies allow distinguishing local and regional hydrological changes. The peat records reflect relatively subtle climatic changes that are not evident from regional pollen records from lakes.

  7. Northern hydrology and water resources in a changing environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    The role that climatic change may play in altering various components of the hydrologic cycle in Arctic regions is discussed. The hydrologic setting of these regions is first described, noting the importance of subsurface freezing and thawing on hydrologic pathways and the lack of incorporation of soil freezing and thawing into climate models. Major processes of interest in the relation between climate change and hydrology are the timing and magnitude of fluxes entering and leaving a basin: precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, and runoff. The active layer of the soil could be drastically increased by only a few degrees of surface warming. The natural hydrologic cycle has considerable yearly variation, tending to mask any hydrologic changes caused by climatic change. There are too many unknowns at present for an adequate prediction of the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle. The biggest uncertainty is how the timing and quantity of precipitation is going to change. This quantity could be altered by any major changes in vegetation, which would be closely related to the amount of warming. In hydrologic scenarios where air temperature rises 4 degree C over 50 y, under stable, high, and low precipitation conditions, there are no significant changes in hydrologic response. 24 refs., 6 figs

  8. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  9. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  10. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  11. Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

    2012-12-01

    Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

  12. Hydrological Appraisal of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Zhu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is critical to understanding the changes to water resources and to improve water resource management. The use of hydrological models is a common practice to quantify and assess water resources in such situations. In this study, two hydrological models with different structures, e.g., a physically-based distributed model Liuxihe (LXH and a lumped conceptual model Xinanjiang (XAJ are employed to simulate the daily runoff in the Xijiang basin in South China, under historical (1964–2013 and future (2014–2099 climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (Beijing Climate Centre-Climate System Model, BCC-CSM version 1.1 by a high-resolution regional climate model under two representative concentration pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrological responses to climate change via the two rainfall–runoff models with different mathematical structures are compared, in relation to the uncertainties in hydrology and meteorology. It is found that the two rainfall–runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the Xijiang basin, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.80 for the LXH model and 0.89 for the XAJ model. The characteristics of high flow in the future are also analysed including their frequency (magnitude–return-period relationship. It shows that the distributed model could produce more streamflow and peak flow than the lumped model under the climate change scenarios. However the difference of the impact from the two climate scenarios is marginal on median monthly streamflow. The flood frequency analysis under climate change suggests that flood magnitudes in the future will be more severe than the historical floods with the same return period. Overall, the study reveals how uncertain it can be to quantify water resources with two different but well calibrated hydrological models.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Mehan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

  14. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  15. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  16. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  17. Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    Global hydrology has come a long way since the first introduction of the primitive land surface model of Manabe (1969) and the declaration of the “Emergence of Global Hydrology” by Eagleson (1986). Hydrological submodels of varying complexity are now part of global climate models, of models

  18. The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

  19. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  20. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  1. Climate-vegetation-soil interactions and long-term hydrologic partitioning: signatures of catchment co-evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Troch

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Budyko (1974 postulated that long-term catchment water balance is controlled to first order by the available water and energy. This leads to the interesting question of how do landscape characteristics (soils, geology, vegetation and climate properties (precipitation, potential evaporation, number of wet and dry days interact at the catchment scale to produce such a simple and predictable outcome of hydrological partitioning? Here we use a physically-based hydrologic model separately parameterized in 12 US catchments across a climate gradient to decouple the impact of climate and landscape properties to gain insight into the role of climate-vegetation-soil interactions in long-term hydrologic partitioning. The 12 catchment models (with different paramterizations are subjected to the 12 different climate forcings, resulting in 144 10 yr model simulations. The results are analyzed per catchment (one catchment model subjected to 12 climates and per climate (one climate filtered by 12 different model parameterization, and compared to water balance predictions based on Budyko's hypothesis (E/P = ϕ (Ep/P; E: evaporation, P: precipitation, Ep: potential evaporation. We find significant anti-correlation between average deviations of the evaporation index (E/P computed per catchment vs. per climate, compared to that predicted by Budyko. Catchments that on average produce more E/P have developed in climates that on average produce less E/P, when compared to Budyko's prediction. Water and energy seasonality could not explain these observations, confirming previous results reported by Potter et al. (2005. Next, we analyze which model (i.e., landscape filter characteristics explain the catchment's tendency to produce more or less E/P. We find that the time scale that controls subsurface storage release explains the observed trend. This time scale combines several geomorphologic and hydraulic soil properties. Catchments with relatively longer

  2. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.; Richardson, A.D.; McGuire, K.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study reviewed previous and projected changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States. While climatic warming and increases in precipitation, snow, and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last 100 years, the most pronounced changes have occurred since 1970. However, trends in climatic and hydrological variables have differed both spatially and temporally in different regions. Decadal-scale climatic variations have also altered long-term trends. Climate models predict continued increases in both temperature and precipitation over the next century. Increases in growing season length are expected to increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of droughts. An increase in the frequency of droughts is also expected to increase the risk of fires and other disturbances. Forest productivity and maple syrup production will be impacted, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration will be diminished. It was concluded that climate and hydrological changes will have a profound impact on forest structure, composition and ecological functioning. 131 refs., 5 figs

  3. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  4. Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds.

  5. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  6. Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

    2018-02-15

    The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Development and implementation of a Variable Infiltration Capacity model of surface hydrology into the General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stamm, J.F.; Wood, E.F.

    1993-04-01

    A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is described for the representation of land surface hydrology in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The VIC model computes runoff as a function of the distribution of soil moisture capacity within a GCM grid cell. The major distinguishing feature of the VIC model relative to the bucket model currently used to represent the land surface in many GCMs is that it parameterizes the nonlinearity of the fraction of precipitation that infiltrates over a large area (hence the production of direct runoff) as a function of spatial average soil moisture storage, and that it models subsurface runoff between storms via a simple recession mechanism. The VIC model was incorporated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM at R15 resolution (roughly 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude). Ten-year simulations of global climate were produced using the GFDL GCM with both VIC land surface hydrology, and, for comparison purposes, the standard bucket representation. Comparison of the ten year runs using the VIC model with those using bucket hydrology showed that for the VIC run, global average runoff increased, soil moisture decreased, evaporation decreased, land surface temperature increased, and precipitation decreased. As expected, changes in precipitation occurred primarily over the continents, especially in the northern hemisphere. Changes in the surface water balance for Africa, Australia, and South America were much less than for North American and Eurasia. Both VIC and bucket simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation were compared with gridded monthly average observation fields. These comparisons indicated that the VIC hydrology reproduced winter temperatures better, and summer temperatures worse, than the bucket model. The VIC hydrology better represented global precipitation, primarily as a result of partially reducing the upward bias in precipitation associated with the GFDL R15 bucket runs

  8. Response of terrestrial hydrology to climate and permafrost change for the 21st century as simulated by JSBACH offline experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Tanja; Hagemann, Stefan; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Permafrost (PF) or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. In terms of hydrology, changes in permafrost characteristics may lead to contradicting effects. E.g., observations show that the deepening of the Active Layer (AL) can both decrease and increase soil moisture, depending on the specific conditions. For the investigation of hydrological changes in response to climatic and thus PF change, it is therefore necessary to use a model. To address this response of the terrestrial hydrology to projected changes for the 21st century, the global land surface model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, was used to simulate several future climate scenarios. JSBACH recently has been equipped with important physical PF processes, such as the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In order to identify hydrological impacts originating solely in the physical forcing, experiments were conducted in an offline mode and with fixed vegetation cover. Feedback mechanisms, e.g. via the carbon cycle, were thus excluded. The uncertainty range arising through different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as through different

  9. Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

  10. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  11. Representing Northern Peatland Hydrology and Biogeochemistry with ALM Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Hanson, P. J.; Xu, X.; Mao, J.; Warren, J.; Yuan, F.; Norby, R. J.; Sebestyen, S.; Griffiths, N.; Weston, D. J.; Walker, A.

    2017-12-01

    Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pool and vulnerability to hydrological change. Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. Firstly, we introduce a new configuration of the land model (ALM) of Accelerated Climate model for Energy (ACME), which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Secondly, we couple our new hydrology treatment with vertically structured soil organic matter pool, and the addition of components from methane biogeochemistry. Thirdly, we introduce a new PFT for mosses and implement the water content dynamics and physiology of mosses. We inform and test our model based on SPRUCE experiment to get the reasonable results for the seasonal dynamics water table depths, water content dynamics and physiology of mosses, and correct soil carbon profiles. Then, we use our new model structure to test the how the water table depth and CH4 emission will respond to elevated CO2 and different warming scenarios.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change and Land use Changes on Land Surface Radiation and Energy Budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land surface radiation and energy budgets are critical to address a variety of scientific and application issues related to climate trends, weather predictions, hydrologic and biogeophysical modeling, and the monitoring of ecosystem health and agricultural crops. This is an introductory paper to t...

  13. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated

  14. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

  15. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  16. Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the

  17. Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

    2018-03-01

    Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

  18. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic...

  19. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  20. Characteristics of Eurasian snowmelt and its impacts on the land surface and surface climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Kunhui; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

    2018-03-01

    The local hydrological and climatic impacts of Eurasian snowmelt are studied using advanced land surface and atmospheric data. It is found that intense melting of snow is located at mid-high latitudes in April and May. Snowmelt plays an important role in determining the seasonal cycles of surface runoff and soil moisture (SM). Specifically, melting is accompanied by sharp responses in surface runoff and surface SM while the impacts are delayed for deeper-layer of soil. This is particularly significant in the western sector of Eurasia. On interannual timescales, the responses of various surface parameters to snowmelt in the same month are rather significant. However, the persistence of surface SM anomalies is weak due to the strong soil evaporation anomalies and surplus of surface energy for evaporation. Strong impacts on the sensible heat flux, planetary boundary layer height and precipitation in the next month following the melting of snow are identified in west Russia and Siberia. Downward propagation of surface SM anomalies is observed and a positive evaporation-convection feedback is identified in west Russia. However, the subsequent impacts on the local convective precipitation in late spring-summer and its contribution to the total precipitation are seemingly weak. The atmospheric water vapor convergence has strong control over the total precipitation anomalies. Overall, snowmelt-produced SM anomalies are not found to significantly impact the late spring-summer local climate anomalies in Northern Eurasia. Therefore, the delayed remote-responses of atmospheric circulation and climate to the melting of Eurasian snow may be only possible near the melting period.

  1. A Comprehensive Hydrologic Projections Resource to support Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments in the Western U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Raff, D. A.

    2010-12-01

    The SECURE Water Act § 9503(b)(2) authorizes the U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Reclamation to assess climate change risks for water and environmental resources in eight "major Reclamation river basins" in the Western United States (i.e. Colorado, Columbia, Klamath, Missouri, Rio Grande, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Truckee basins). The legislation calls for Reclamation to provide periodic reports on implications for water supplies, water deliveries, hydropower generation, fish and wildlife, water quality, flood control, ecological resiliency, and recreation. Reclamation's is developing a framework for consistently characterizing risks in Western U.S. river basins through the West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments, part of the Basin Study Program. One initial activity within this framework is focused on characterizing hydrologic and water supply implications of climate change. The centerpiece of this activity is the development of a west-wide ensemble of hydrologic projections, tiering from information in the online archive "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html) and utilizing a network of hydrologic model applications featured in the University of Washington and Princeton University's "Experimental National Hydrologic Prediction System" (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide/index.shtml). The resulting hydrologic information has the same space and time attributes as the underlying downscaled climate information: 112 projections of monthly downscaled CMIP3 conditions from 1950-2099 at 1/8° resolution over the Western U.S. (nested within the underlying archive’s contiguous U.S. domain). Such attributes permit a time evolving risk-based portrayal of hydrologic conditions, which is useful for climate change adaptation discussions where the timing of impacts matters in relation the initiation and investment of adaptation or mitigation measures

  2. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  3. HOBE – a hydrological observatory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Illangasekare, Tissa

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a short introducO on is given to the Danish hydrological observatory—HOBE. We describe characteristics of the catchment, which is subject to experimental and modeling investigations. An overview is given of the research reported in this special section of the journal, which includes...... 11 papers of original research covering precipitation, evapotranspiration, emission of greenhouse gasses, unsaturated flow, groundwater–surface water interaction, and climate change impacts on hydrology....

  4. Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.; Souter, Nicholas J.;

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO2, and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

  5. Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

    2006-01-01

    A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

  6. Phosphorus dynamics in lowland streams as a response to climatic, hydrological and agricultural land use gradients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.

    2015-01-01

    contrasting climate and hydrological regimes (temperate Denmark and subtropical Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programmes (high frequency composite sampling and low frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and three alternative methods to estimate exported P from the catchments. A source...... apportionment model was applied to evaluate the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources in all four catchments studied. Climatic and hydrological characteristics of catchments expressed as flow responsiveness (flashiness), exerted control on catchment and stream TP dynamics, having consequences......Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors for determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from agricultural fields to freshwaters. In this study, we evaluated the effect of agricultural intensification on the concentrations, dynamics and export of phosphorus (P) in streams in two...

  7. Using ATM laser altimetry to constrain surface mass balance estimates and supraglacial hydrology of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studinger, M.; Medley, B.; Manizade, S.; Linkswiler, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Repeat airborne laser altimetry measurements can provide large-scale field observations to better quantify spatial and temporal variability of surface processes contributing to seasonal elevation change and therefore surface mass balance. As part of NASA's Operation IceBridge the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter measured the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet during spring (March - May) and fall (September - October) of 2015. Comparison of the two surveys reveals a general trend of thinning for outlet glaciers and for the ice sheet in a manner related to elevation and latitude. In contrast, some thickening is observed on the west (but not on the east) side of the ice divide above 2200 m elevation in the southern half, below latitude 69°N.The observed magnitude and spatial patterns of the summer melt signal can be utilized as input into ice sheet models and for validating reanalysis of regional climate models such as RACMO and MAR. We use seasonal anomalies in MERRA-2 climate fields (temperature, precipitation) to understand the observed spatial signal in seasonal change. Aside from surface elevation change, runoff from meltwater pooling in supraglacial lakes and meltwater channels accounts for at least half of the total mass loss. The ability of the ATM laser altimeters to image glacial hydrological features in 3-D and determine the depth of supraglacial lakes could be used for process studies and for quantifying melt processes over large scales. The 1-meter footprint diameter of ATM laser on the surface, together with a high shot density, allows for the production of large-scale, high-resolution, geodetic quality DEMs (50 x 50 cm) suitable for fine-scale glacial hydrology research and as input to hydrological models quantifying runoff.

  8. Scenario-Based Impact Assessment of Land Use/Cover and Climate Changes on Watershed Hydrology in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Wu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated hydrological impacts of potential climate and land use changes in Heihe River Basin of Northwest China. The future climate data for the simulation with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT were prepared using a dynamical downscaling method. The future land uses were simulated with the Dynamic Land Use System (DLS model by establishing Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL model for six land use types. In 2006–2030, land uses in the basin will experience a significant change with a prominent increase in urban areas, a moderate increase in grassland, and a great decrease in unused land. Besides, the simulation results showed that in comparison to those during 1981–2005 the temperature and precipitation during 2006–2030 will change by +0.8°C and +10.8%, respectively. The land use change and climate change will jointly make the water yield change by +8.5%, while they will separately make the water yield change by −1.8% and +9.8%, respectively. The predicted large increase in future precipitation and the corresponding decrease in unused land will have substantial impacts on the watershed hydrology, especially on the surface runoff and streamflow. Therefore, to mitigate negative hydrological impacts and utilize positive impacts, both land use and climate changes should be considered in water resource planning for the Heihe River Basin.

  9. Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

  10. Challenges for understanding Antarctic surface hydrology and ice-shelf stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingslake, J.; Bell, R. E.; Banwell, A. F.; Boghosian, A.; Spergel, J.; Trusel, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    It is widely hypothesized that surface meltwater can contribute to ice mass loss in Antarctica through its impact on ice-shelf stability. Meltwater potentially expedites ice-shelf calving by flowing into and enlarging existing crevasses, and could even trigger ice-shelf disintegration via stresses generated by melt ponds. When ice shelves collapse, the adjacent grounded ice accelerates and thins, which contributes to sea-level rise. How these mechanisms mediate the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice sheet is the subject of long-standing research efforts. The drainage of water across the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ice shelves is beginning to be recognized as another important aspect of the system. Recent studies have revealed that surface meltwater drainage is more widespread than previously thought and that surface hydrological systems in Antarctica may expand and proliferate this century. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the impact of the proliferation of drainage systems on ice-shelf stability have emerged. Surface drainage could deliver meltwater to vulnerable area or export meltwater from ice shelves entirely. Which behavior dominates may have a large impact on the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric warming. We will discuss these recent discoveries and hypotheses, as well as new detailed studies of specific areas where hydrological systems are well developed, such as Amery and Nimrod Ice Shelves. We will highlight analogies that can be drawn with Greenlandic (near-)surface hydrology and, crucially, where hydrological systems on the two ice sheets are very different, leading to potentially important gaps in our understanding. Finally, we will look ahead to the key questions that we argue will need to be if we are to determine the role Antarctic surface hydrology could play in the future of the ice sheet. These include: Where does meltwater pond today and how will this change this century? What

  11. Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

    2006-12-01

    The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

  12. Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2018-05-01

    This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

  13. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

    2013-02-18

    The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

  14. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

  15. The influence of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice with climatic implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Ken; Gosink, Joan

    1991-01-01

    The role was analyzed of the hydrologic cycle on the distribution of sea ice, and its influence on forcings and fluxes between the marine environment and the atmosphere. River discharge plays a significant role in degrading the sea ice before any melting occurs elsewhere along the coast. The influence is considered of river discharge on the albedo, thermal balance, and distribution of sea ice. Quantitative atmospheric-hydrologic models are being developed to describe these processes in the coastal zone. Input for the models will come from satellite images, hydrologic data, and field observations. The resulting analysis provides a basis for the study of the significance of the hydrologic cycle throughout the Arctic Basin and its influence on the regional climate as a result of possible climatic scenarios. The area offshore from the Mackenzie River delta was selected as the study area.

  16. Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

  17. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study on the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Bellin, A.; Majone, B.; Bovolo, C. I.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2009-12-01

    Uncertainty in projections from climate models limits the understanding of future hydrological impacts and complicates the assessment of mitigation policies. This work presents hydrological simulations of the Ebro River Basin (Spain), using both control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate scenarios, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the water availability of the basin. Using the SWAT model, hydrological simulations were carried out for four catchments with different climatological regimes. Sets of model parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, long-term calibration and uncertainty analysis procedures, which enabled the historical behaviour of the catchments to be reproduced. Following validation, the parameters were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflow. Bias-corrected daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), using the SRES A2 emissions scenario, were used as drivers of the hydrological simulations during the future scenarios. Important annual and seasonal differences in the projected future precipitation and temperature fields were observed among the RCMs. However, a general decrease in annual mean precipitation and an increase in annual mean temperature relative to the control period were observed, with the strongest differences during the summer season. When these changes were used to project future streamflows, a general decrease was observed at the outlet of the catchments. Changes in streamflows were in general agreement with the projections of daily precipitation and temperature fields, with a larger drop in predicted monthly streamflows for catchments with more semi-arid climatological regimes, and seasonal differences that are related to the elevation range of the catchments.

  18. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  19. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  20. Terrestrial Hydrological Data from NASA's Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC): Products, Services, and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. The North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) have been generating a series of land surface states (soil moisture, snow, and temperature) and fluxes (evapotranspiration, radiation, and heat flux) variables. These data, hosted at and available from NASA s Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), include the NLDAS hourly 1/8 degree products and the GLDAS 3-hourly 0.25 and 1.0 degree products. HDISC provides easy access and visualization and analysis capabilities for these products, thus reducing the time and resources spent by scientists on data management and facilitating hydrological research. Users can perform spatial and parameter subsetting, data format transformation, and data analysis operations without needing to first download the data. HDISC is continually being developed as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecasts, and water and energy cycle research.

  1. Extracting climate signals from large hydrological data cubes using multivariate statistics - an example for the Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauer, Agnes; Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard

    2017-04-01

    Global warming is expected to change ocean-atmosphere oscillation patterns, e.g. the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and may thus have a substantial impact on water resources over land. Yet, the link between climate oscillations and terrestrial hydrology has large uncertainties. In particular, the climate in the Mediterranean basin is expected to be sensitive to global warming as it may increase insufficient and irregular water supply and lead to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy precipitation events. The ever increasing need for water in tourism and agriculture reinforce the problem. Therefore, the monitoring and better understanding of the hydrological cycle are crucial for this area. This study seeks to quantify the effect of regional climate modes, e.g. the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. We apply Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to a wide range of hydrological datasets to extract the major modes of variation over the study period. We use more than ten datasets describing precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and changes in water mass with study periods ranging from one to three decades depending on the dataset. The resulting EOFs are then examined for correlations with regional climate modes using Spearman rank correlation analysis. This is done for the entire time span of the EOFs and for monthly and seasonally sampled data. We find relationships between the hydrological datasets and the climate modes NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Atlantic (EA), and Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA). Analyses of monthly and seasonally sampled data reveal high correlations especially in the winter months. However, the spatial extent of the data cube considered for the analyses have a large impact on the results. Our statistical analyses suggest an impact of regional climate modes on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean area and may provide valuable input for evaluating process

  2. Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

    2012-10-01

    A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

  3. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  4. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  5. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Watershed sensitivity and hydrologic response to high-resolution climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, M.; Caya, D.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are fundamental research tools to assess climate change impacts on water resources. Regional climate models (RCMs) are complementary to GCMs. The added benefit of RCMs for hydrological applications is still not well understood because watersheds respond differently to RCM experiments. It is expected that the new generation of RCMs improve the representation of climate processes making it more attractive for impact studies. Given the cost of RCMs, it is ascertain to identify whether high-resolution RCMs allow offering more details than what is simulated in GCMs or RCMs with coarser resolution to address impacts on water resources. This study aims to assess the added value of RCM with emphasis on using high-resolution climate models. More specifically is how the hydrological cycle is represented when the resolution in climate models is increased (45 vs 200km; 15 vs 45km). We used simulations from the Canadian RCM (CRCM) driven by reanalyses integrated on high-resolution domains (45 and 15km) and CRCM driven by multiple members of two GCMs (the Canadian CGCM3; the German ECHAM5) with a horizontal resolution of 45 km. CRCM data and data from their host GCMs are compared to observation over 1971-2000. Precipitation and temperature from CRCM and GCMs' simulations are inputted into the hydrological SWAT model to simulate streamflow in watersheds for the historical period. The selected watersheds are two basins in Quebec (QC) and one basin in British Columbia (BC), Canada. CRCM-45km driven by GCMs performs well in representing precipitation but shows a cold bias of 3.3°C. Such bias in temperature is more significant for the BC basin (4.5°C) due to the Rocky Mountains. For the CRCM-45km/GCM combination (CGCM3 or ECHAM5), comparable skills in reproducing the observed climate are identified even though CGCM3 analyzed alone provides more accurate indication of climatology in the basins than ECHAM5. When we compared to GCMs results, CRCM-45km

  7. Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

    2017-12-01

    The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

  8. Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

  9. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

  10. Potential effects of climate change on hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biftu, G.F.; Beersing, A.; Kalinga, O.A.; Pandit, K.N.

    2007-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change must be incorporated within environmental assessments of oil and gas developments. This paper evaluated the findings of a study examining the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta. Components of the study included a review of trends in climate parameters and their effect on hydrology, as well as statistical analyses of precipitation, temperature and stream flow data of the Athabasca River at both the local and regional scale. The influences of tributary streams were also examined. Results of the study demonstrated that air temperatures have been steadily rising over the past few decades. Recorded annual precipitation also increased during the spring and summer months, and decreased during the winter and fall. Annual mean flows decreased. Results suggested that wet and dry cycles tended to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles were analyzed. The analysis of flows in the tributary streams indicated a that mean and peak flows were also decreasing. However, an increase in peak winter flows was observed. It was concluded that there is a large degree of uncertainty in the predictions of the hydrologic effects of climate change. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  11. Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Johnson, Henry M.

    2018-01-01

    Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with

  12. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  13. Implications of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile basin: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meron Teferi Taye

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The review illustrates some discrepancy among research outputs. For the historical context, this is partially related to the period and length of data analyzed and the failure to consider the influence of multi-decadal oscillations. Consequently, we show that annual cycle of Blue Nile flow has not changed in the past five decades. For the future context, discrepancy is partially attributable to the various and differing climate and hydrological models included and the downscaling techniques applied. The need to prudently consider sources of uncertainty and potential causes of bias in historical trend and climate change impact research is highlighted.

  14. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and to name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation, because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  15. Modelling and Mapping Oxygen-18 Isotope Composition of Precipitation in Spain for Hydrologic and Climatic Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Arevalo, J.; Diaz-Teijeiro, M. F. [Centro de Estudios y Experimentacion de Obras Publicas (CEDEX), Madrid (Spain); Castano, S. [Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Madrid (Spain)

    2013-07-15

    A simple multiple regression model based on two geographic factors (latitude and elevation) has been developed that reproduces reasonably well the spatial distribution of the current mean oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation over spain. In a preliminary analysis, additional geographic and climatic factors do not improve the performance of the model. A continuous digital map of oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation has been produced by combining the polynomial model with a digital elevation model using GIS tools. Application of the resulting map to several groundwater case studies in spain has shown it to be useful as a reference of the input function to recharge. Further validation of the model, and further testing of its usefulness in surface hydrology and climatic studies, is ongoing through comparison of model results with isotope data from the GNIP database and from isotope studies in hydrogeology and climate change taking place in spain. (author)

  16. Hydrological modeling as an evaluation tool of EURO-CORDEX climate projections and bias correction methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakala, Kirsti; Addor, Nans; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Streamflow stemming from Switzerland's mountainous landscape will be influenced by climate change, which will pose significant challenges to the water management and policy sector. In climate change impact research, the determination of future streamflow is impeded by different sources of uncertainty, which propagate through the model chain. In this research, we explicitly considered the following sources of uncertainty: (1) climate models, (2) downscaling of the climate projections to the catchment scale, (3) bias correction method and (4) parameterization of the hydrological model. We utilize climate projections at the 0.11 degree 12.5 km resolution from the EURO-CORDEX project, which are the most recent climate projections for the European domain. EURO-CORDEX is comprised of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which have been downscaled from global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive, using both dynamical and statistical techniques. Uncertainties are explored by applying a modeling chain involving 14 GCM-RCMs to ten Swiss catchments. We utilize the rainfall-runoff model HBV Light, which has been widely used in operational hydrological forecasting. The Lindström measure, a combination of model efficiency and volume error, was used as an objective function to calibrate HBV Light. Ten best sets of parameters are then achieved by calibrating using the genetic algorithm and Powell optimization (GAP) method. The GAP optimization method is based on the evolution of parameter sets, which works by selecting and recombining high performing parameter sets with each other. Once HBV is calibrated, we then perform a quantitative comparison of the influence of biases inherited from climate model simulations to the biases stemming from the hydrological model. The evaluation is conducted over two time periods: i) 1980-2009 to characterize the simulation realism under the current climate and ii) 2070-2099 to identify the magnitude of the projected change of

  17. Catchment Integration of Sensor Array Observations to Understand Hydrologic Connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfern, S.; Livneh, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Suding, K.; Neff, J. C.; Hinckley, E. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic connectivity and the land surface water balance are likely to be impacted by climate change in the coming years. Although recent work has started to demonstrate that climate modulates connectivity, we still lack knowledge of how local ecology will respond to environmental and atmospheric changes and subsequently interact with connectivity. The overarching goal of this research is to address and forecast how climate change will affect hydrologic connectivity in an alpine environment, through the use of near-surface observations (temperature, humidity, soil moisture, snow depth) from a new 16-sensor array (plus 5 precipitation gauges), together with a distributed hydrologic model, over a small catchment on Colorado's Niwot Ridge (above 3000m). Model simulations will be constrained to distributed sensor measurements taken in the study area and calibrated with streamflow. Periods of wetting and dry-down will be analyzed to identify signatures of connectivity across the landscape, its seasonal signals and its sensitivity to land cover. Further work will aim to develop future hydrologic projections, compare model output with related observations, conduct multi-physics experiments, and continue to expand the existing sensor network.

  18. Surface hydrologic investigations of the Columbia Plateau Region, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhart, L.S.

    1979-07-01

    The Washington State portion of the Columbia Plateau is divided into six hydrologic sub-basins on the basis of the principal surface drainage systems present, structural and topographic relationships, and political and other considerations. Baseline descriptions of the surface water systems and resources are presented for the Columbia Plateau with emphasis on the Pasco Sub-basin. A preliminary evaluation of the hydrologic budget for each sub-basin is derived. For each sub-basin, recharge/discharge relationships arising from precipitation/evapotranspiration/runoff, stream losses and gains, and artificial mechanisms are determined on the basis of available data. The net exchange between surface and groundwater systems is evaluated and relative estimates of the net groundwater flow into or out of the sub-basin are obtained. An evaluation is made of hydrologic risk factors arising from: (1) tributary flooding in eastern Washington; and, (2) major flooding of the Columbia River within the Pasco Sub-basin. Scenarios are presented for credible natural and man-generated catastrophic events

  19. Surface hydrologic investigations of the Columbia Plateau region, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhart, L.S.

    1979-01-01

    The Washington State portion of the Columbia Plateau is divided into six hydrologic sub-basins on the basis of the principal surface drainage systems present, structural and topographic relationships, and political and other considerations. Baseline descriptions of the surface water systems and resources are presented for the Columbia Plateau with emphasis on the Pasco Sub-basin. A preliminary evaluation of the hydrologic budget for each sub-basin is derived. For each sub-basin, recharge/discharge relationships arising from precipitation/evapotranspiration/runoff, stream losses and gains, and artificial mechanisms are determined on the basis of available data. The net exchange between surface and ground-water systems is evaluated and relative estimates of the net ground-water flow into or out of the sub-basin are obtained. An evaluation is made of hydrologic risk factors arising from: (1) tributary flooding in eastern Washington; and (2) major flooding of the Columbia River within the Pasco Sub-basin. Scenarios are presented for credible natural and man-generated catastrophic events

  20. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  1. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  2. Long-term environmental drivers of DOC fluxes: Linkages between management, hydrology and climate in a subtropical coastal estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Peter; Briceño, Henry; Jaffé, Rudolf

    2016-12-01

    Urban and agricultural development of the South Florida peninsula has disrupted historic freshwater flow in the Everglades, a hydrologically connected ecosystem stretching from central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Current system-scale restoration efforts aim to restore natural hydrologic regimes to reestablish pre-drainage ecosystem functioning through increased water availability, quality and timing. Aquatic transport of carbon in this ecosystem, primarily as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycling and food-web dynamics, and will be affected both by water management policies and climate change. To better understand DOC dynamics in South Florida estuaries and how hydrology, climate and water management may affect them, 14 years of monthly data collected in the Shark River estuary were used to examine DOC flux dynamics in a broader environmental context. Multivariate statistical methods were applied to long-term datasets for hydrology, water quality and climate to untangle the interconnected environmental drivers that control DOC export at monthly and annual scales. DOC fluxes were determined to be primarily controlled by hydrology but also by seasonality and long-term climate patterns and episodic weather events. A four-component model (salinity, rainfall, inflow, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) capable of predicting DOC fluxes (R2 = 0.84, p water management and salinity.

  3. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  4. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  5. Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

  6. Periodicity of Climatic, Hydrological and Lacustrine Sedimentation Processes in the South of the East-European Plain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lisetskii, F.N.; Stolba, Vladimir; Pichura, V.I.

    2013-01-01

    s did not result in an increase in the water volume in the Dnieper. This suggests that the declining sensitivity of the hydrological cycles to the climatic rhythms is the effect of a strong anthropogenic impact. Accordingly, the Dnieper water-volume formation period (1900–1946) optimal...... make it possible to define the contribution of annual sums of precipitation and air temperature to the riverine discharge, the study has established the climatic dependence of the hydrological processes. It has also demonstrated that an essential increase in the annual precipitation sums since the 1940...... for simulation has been defined, which most accurately reflects the impact of natural climatic factors on the riverine discharge. The regression model for the conditions when the water discharge is over 1686 m3/s can be used for prognosis (and retrognosis) of extreme hydrological events in the south of the East...

  7. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-06-01

    Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  8. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

    2018-06-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Water towers of the Great Basin: climatic and hydrologic change at watershed scales in a mountainous arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change in the Great Basin will manifest through changes in the hydrologic cycle. Downscaled climate data and projections run through the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) produce time series of hydrologic response - recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) - that directly affect water resources and vegetation. More than 50 climate projections from CMIP5 were screened using a cluster analysis of end-century (2077-2099) seasonal precipitation and annual temperature to produce a reduced subset of 12 climate futures that cover a wide range of macroclimate response. Importantly, variations among GCMs in summer precipitation produced by the SW monsoon are captured. Data were averaged within 84 HUC8 watersheds with widley varying climate, topography, and geology. Resultant time series allow for multivariate analysis of hydrologic response, especially partitioning between snowpack, recharge, runoff, and actual evapotranspiration. Because the bulk of snowpack accumulation is restricted to small areas of isolated mountain ranges, losses of snowpack can be extreme as snowline moves up the mountains with warming. Loss of snowpack also affects recharge and runoff rates, and importantly, the recharge/runoff ratio - as snowpacks fade, recharge tends to increase relative to runoff. Thresholds for regime shifts can be identified, but the unique topography and geology of each basin must be considered in assessing hydrologic response.

  10. Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

    2017-04-01

    Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to

  11. Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

    2012-10-01

    Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Baumhauer, Roland; Schütt, Brigitta

    2011-02-01

    The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models

  13. Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vezzoli

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971 to future (2100 under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM. The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

  14. Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M

    2017-07-19

    While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

  15. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  16. Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functio...

  17. ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

    2017-04-01

    The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts

  18. Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

    2018-01-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other

  19. Impact of climate change on the streamflow hydrology of the Yangtze River in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuotuo River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area, where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six global climate models (GCMs) under three Respectively ...

  20. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p analysis of covariance showed the fraction of precipitation discharged increased, while unsatisfied evaporative demand decreased with time among the four watersheds (p agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  1. Modelling and Mapping Oxygen-18 Isotope Composition of Precipitation in Spain for Hydrologic and Climatic Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-Arevalo, J.; Diaz-Teijeiro, M.F.; Castano, S.

    2011-01-01

    A simple multiple regression model based on two geographic factors (latitude and elevation) has been developed that reproduces reasonably well the spatial distribution of the current mean oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation over Spain. In a preliminary analysis, additional geographic and climatic factors do not improve the performance of the model. A continuous digital map of oxygen-18 isotope composition in precipitation has been produced by combining the polynomial model with a Digital Elevation Model using GIS tools. Application of the resulting map to several case studies in Spain has shown it to be useful as a reference of the isotope input function to groundwater recharge and surface runoff. The results obtained so far show a good fit between modelled stable isotope values and those measured in surface and ground waters from different aquifers and recharge areas. The GIS tools applied to a continuous digital layer of spatial isotope are able to provide accurate information at detailed scales that are not affordable by other means. Further validation of the model, and further testing of its usefulness in surface hydrology and climatic studies, is going on.

  2. Hydrology and soil erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard J. Lane; Mary R. Kidwell

    2003-01-01

    We review research on surface water hydrology and soil erosion at the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER). Almost all of the research was associated with eight small experimental watersheds established from 1974 to 1975 and operated until the present. Analysis of climatic features of the SRER supports extending research findings from the SRER to broad areas of the...

  3. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-11-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a

  4. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

  5. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

  6. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China

    2017-11-03

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  7. An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    : Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs are being used to construct spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, a...

  8. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-06-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated

  9. CLIMB - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of mediterranean basins - Reducing uncertainties and quantifying risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2010-05-01

    According to future climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources. Threats include severe droughts and extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and desertification due to poor and unsustainable water management practices. It can be foreseen that, unless appropriate adaptation measures are undertaken, the changes in the hydrologic cycle will give rise to an increasing potential for tension and conflict among the political and economic actors in this vulnerable region. The presented project initiative CLIMB, funded under EC's 7th Framework Program (FP7-ENV-2009-1), has started in January 2010. In its 4-year design, it shall analyze ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes across the Mediterranean and neighboring regions. This is undertaken in study sites located in Sardinia, Northern Italy, Southern France, Tunisia, Egypt and the Palestinian-administered area Gaza. The work plan is targeted to selected river or aquifer catchments, where the consortium will employ a combination of novel field monitoring and remote sensing concepts, data assimilation, integrated hydrologic (and biophysical) modeling and socioeconomic factor analyses to reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. Advanced climate scenario analysis will be employed and available ensembles of regional climate model simulations will be downscaling. This process will provide the drivers for an ensemble of hydro(-geo)logical models with different degrees of complexity in terms of process description and level of integration. The results of hydrological modeling and socio-economic factor analysis will enable the development of a GIS-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. This tool will serve as a platform

  10. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A F Lutz

    Full Text Available The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

  11. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

  12. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

    2016-01-01

    The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

  13. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

    2004-01-01

    Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

  14. Impacts of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological dynamics in the upper Citarum River basin based on the J2000 hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magenika Julian, Miga; Fink, Manfred; Fischer, Christian; Krause, Peter; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

    2015-04-01

    Changes of land-use and climate will most likely result in changes of the hydrological dynamics in river basins. Such changes can be noticed in the upper Citarum River basin (UCB), Java Island, Indonesia. This basin covers 1821km2 and is located in a hilly area of the backcountry of Jakarta. Between 2005 and 2009, the basin's forest cover has been reduced by 5.0%, residential areas grew around 8.2% expanding around the existing residential areas, and 3.9% of shrubland was converted into agricultural areas. From 1985 through 2009, the mean annual air temperature increased by 0.01° C/year; whereas, precipitation slightly decreased by 6.8mm/year. The process-oriented hydrological model JAMS/J2000 was adapted and implemented to assess the impact of land-use change and climate variability on the hydrological dynamics of this basin, including consideration of the temporal and spatial distributions. For this assessment, three scenarios based on realistic events were investigated; these consisted of the following (i) land-use changes in 2005 versus 2009; (ii) temperature increase from 1984 to 2009, while keeping a precipitation constant from year 1984; and (iii) variability of precipitation from 1984 to 2009, while keeping temperature constant from year 1984. The model-input conditions of land-use, precipitation, and temperature changes where applied individually, holding the other factors constant. Model simulations were conducted for the UCB. The J2000 model for the UCB was calibrated and validated using a split-sample approach. For model calibration and validation, fairly good objective functions were achieved: i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (E) by 0.79 and 0.76, log E of 0.89 and 0.84, coefficient of determination of 0.79 and 0.77, and a percent bias of -1.4% and -1.1%. From the model-simulation results, it was concluded that the land-use changes resulted in a slight increase in stream discharge (4.6%) and a decrease of evaporation of 3.7%. The analysis of the

  15. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  16. Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-12-01

    The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through

  17. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  18. Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

  19. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  20. GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markert, Kel N.; Griffin, Robert; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; McNider, Richard T.; Anderson, Eric R.

    2016-01-01

    The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

  1. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  3. Hydrology and geochemistry of a surface coal mine in northwestern Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, R.S.; Clark, G.M.

    1994-01-01

    The hydrology and geochemistry of a reclaimed coal mine in northwestern Colorado were monitored during water years 1988 and 1989. Some data also were collected in water years 1987 and 1990. This report describes (1) the sources of hydrologic recharge to and discharge from reclaimed spoil, (2) the relative contributions of recharge to the reclaimed spoil aquifer from identified source waters and the rate of water movement from those sources to the reclaimed spoil, and (3) the geochemical reactions that control water quality in reclaimed spoil. The study area was at a dip-slope coal mine encompassing about 7 square miles with land slopes of varying aspect. The area was instrumented and monitored at five sites; two sites had unmined and reclaimed- spoil areas adjacent to each other and three sites were unmined. The mined areas had been reclaimed. Instrumentation at the study sites included 1 climate station, 3 rain gages, 19 soil-water access tubes, 2 lysimeters, 18 wells completed in bedrock, 7 wells completed in reclaimed spoil, and 2 surface- water gaging stations. The results of the study indicate that the reclaimed spoil is recharged from surface recharge and underburden aquifers. Discharge, as measured by lysimeters, was about 3 inches per year and occurred during and after snowmelt. Hydraulic-head measurements indicated a potential for ground-water movement from deeper to shallower aquifers. Water levels rose in the reclaimed-spoil aquifer and spring discharge at the toe of the spoil slopes increased rapidly in response to snowmelt. Water chemistry, stable isotopes, geochemical models, and mass-balance calculations indicate that surface recharge and the underburden aquifers each contribute about 50 percent of the water to the reclaimed-spoil aquifers. Geochemical information indicates that pyrite oxidation and dissolution of carbonate and efflorescent sulfate minerals control the water chemistry of the reclaimed-spoil aquifer.

  4. ClimoBase: Rouse Canadian Surface Observations of Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Variables, 1984-1998, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ClimoBase is a collection of surface climate measurements collected in Northern Canada by Dr. Wayne Rouse between 1984 and 1998 in three locations: Churchill,...

  5. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  6. Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Ciaran; Matthews, Tom; Wilby, Robert L.; Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor

    2016-10-01

    Understanding hydrological model predictive capabilities under contrasting climate conditions enables more robust decision making. Using Differential Split Sample Testing (DSST), we analyze the performance of six hydrological models for 37 Irish catchments under climate conditions unlike those used for model training. Additionally, we consider four ensemble averaging techniques when examining interperiod transferability. DSST is conducted using 2/3 year noncontinuous blocks of (i) the wettest/driest years on record based on precipitation totals and (ii) years with a more/less pronounced seasonal precipitation regime. Model transferability between contrasting regimes was found to vary depending on the testing scenario, catchment, and evaluation criteria considered. As expected, the ensemble average outperformed most individual ensemble members. However, averaging techniques differed considerably in the number of times they surpassed the best individual model member. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and the Granger-Ramanathan Averaging (GRA) method were found to outperform the simple arithmetic mean (SAM) and Akaike Information Criteria Averaging (AICA). Here GRA performed better than the best individual model in 51%-86% of cases (according to the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion). When assessing model predictive skill under climate change conditions we recommend (i) setting up DSST to select the best available analogues of expected annual mean and seasonal climate conditions; (ii) applying multiple performance criteria; (iii) testing transferability using a diverse set of catchments; and (iv) using a multimodel ensemble in conjunction with an appropriate averaging technique. Given the computational efficiency and performance of GRA relative to BMA, the former is recommended as the preferred ensemble averaging technique for climate assessment.

  7. Surface Velocities and Hydrology at Engabreen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Messerli, Alexandra

    complicates comparisons with other surface-oriented glaciohydrological studies. One major aim of this thesis is to provide a longer record of surface velocity, enabling a more complete understanding of the glacial hydro-mechanical relationship at Engabreen. In order to extend the velocity dataset here, a time...... the lower tongue of Engabreen are analysed in detail alongside the hydro-meteorological time-series. The higher temporal resolution of the GPS allows the effect of short-term hydrological forcings on ice flow to be assessed. Two key events: the spring-speed up event (P1a) and a short-term rain induced event...

  8. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viola, F., E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

    2016-02-15

    ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

  9. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viola, F.; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

  10. Evaluation of Airborne Lidar Elevation Surfaces for Propagation of Coastal Inundation: The Importance of Hydrologic Connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Poppenga

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km2 that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas

  11. Evaluation of airborne lidar elevation surfaces for propagation of coastal inundation: the importance of hydrologic connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppenga, Sandra K.; Worstell, Bruce B.

    2015-01-01

    Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km2) that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas were considered as

  12. A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadu Pokhrel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

  13. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

    2016-06-01

    The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

  14. How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

  15. Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; hide

    2018-01-01

    We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

  16. Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert

    2017-11-01

    Hydropower production requires optimal dam and reservoir management to prevent flooding damage and avoid operation losses. In a northern climate, where spring freshet constitutes the main inflow volume, seasonal forecasts can help to establish a yearly strategy. Long-term hydrological forecasts often rely on past observations of streamflow or meteorological data. Another alternative is to use ensemble meteorological forecasts produced by climate models. In this paper, those produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast) System 4 are examined and bias is characterized. Bias correction, through the linear scaling method, improves the performance of the raw ensemble meteorological forecasts in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Then, three seasonal ensemble hydrological forecasting systems are compared: (1) the climatology of simulated streamflow, (2) the ensemble hydrological forecasts based on climatology (ESP) and (3) the hydrological forecasts based on bias-corrected ensemble meteorological forecasts from System 4 (corr-DSP). Simulated streamflow computed using observed meteorological data is used as benchmark. Accounting for initial conditions is valuable even for long-term forecasts. ESP and corr-DSP both outperform the climatology of simulated streamflow for lead times from 1 to 5 months depending on the season and watershed. Integrating information about future meteorological conditions also improves monthly volume forecasts. For the 1-month lead time, a gain exists for almost all watersheds during winter, summer and fall. However, volume forecasts performance for spring varies from one watershed to another. For most of them, the performance is close to the performance of ESP. For longer lead times, the CRPS skill score is mostly in favour of ESP, even if for many watersheds, ESP and corr-DSP have comparable skill. Corr-DSP appears quite reliable but, in some cases, under-dispersion or bias is observed. A more complex bias

  17. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  18. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  19. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  20. Increasing the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface and near-surface hydrological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2009-05-01

    The aim of the study was to improve the reliability of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model that calculates the overall water balance components of Olkiluoto Island. ONKALO and Korvensuo reservoir were added as explicit structures to the model. The model links the unsaturated and saturated soil water in the overburden and groundwater in bedrock to a continuous pressure system. With the model it is possible to evaluate the influence of water leaking to ONKALO on groundwater level in overburden soils and pressure head in shallow bedrock drillholes. Anisotropy was added to the surface hydrological model and several model runs were carried out using anisotropy factors 1, 5 and 10. Anisotropy factor of 10 is used in the 2008 version of the deep hydrogeological model and the same anisotropy will be used in future calculations of the surface hydrological model to ensure consistency of the parameter values in the two models. The correspondence between measured and computed groundwater levels has been improved due to new soil type delineation and the calibration of the soil water retention curve parameters. Computed groundwater level variation can be characterized by a measure ΔH COMP , which is difference between maximum and minimum value during the calibration period. Average ΔH COMP in groundwater tubes was 1.98 m and the corresponding measured value ΔH MEAS was 2.08 m, i.e. the difference between measured and computed value was around 0.1 m (0.16 m in the 2007 version). Temporal variation (difference between maximum and minimum pressure head) was simulated well also in most of the shallow bedrock drillholes. ONKALO was added to the 2008 version of the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model. Influence of ONKALO is taken into account by giving the total discharge as input data from existing measurements or from calculations of the deep hydrogeological model of the Olkiluoto Island. The computed results show that ONKALO has a temporal effect on groundwater level in

  1. Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

    2017-12-01

    Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the

  2. Impact of land-use and climatic changes on hydrology of the Himalayan Basin: A case study of the Kosi Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Keshav Prasad

    1997-10-01

    Land-use and climatic changes are of major concern in the Himalayan region because of their potential impacts on a predominantly agriculture-based economy and a regional hydrology dominated by strong seasonality. Such concerns are not limited to any particular basin but exist throughout the region including the downstream plain areas. As a representative basin of the Himalayas, we studied the Kosi basin (54,000 km2) located in the mountainous area of the central Himalayan region. We analyzed climatic and hydrologic information to assess the impacts of existing and potential future land-use and climatic changes over the basin. The assessment of anthropogenic inputs showed that the population grew at a compound growth rate of about one percent per annum over the basin during the last four decades. The comparison of land-use data based on the surveys made in the 1960s, and the surveys of 1978-79 did not reveal noticeable trends in land-use change. Analysis of meteorological and hydrological trends using parametric and nonparametric statistics for monthly data from 1947 to 1993 showed some increasing tendency for temperature and precipitation. Statistical tests of hydrological trends indicated an overall decrease of discharge along mainstem Kosi River and its major tributaries. The decreasing trends of streamflow were more significant during low-flow months. Statistical analysis of homogeneity showed that the climatological as well as the hydrological trends were more localized in nature lacking distinct basinwide significance. Statistical analysis of annual sediment time series, available for a single station on the Kosi River did not reveal a significant trend. We used water balance, statistical correlation, and distributed deterministic modeling approaches to analyze the hydrological sensitivity of the basin to possible land-use and climatic changes. The results indicated a stronger influence of basin characteristics compared to climatic characteristics on flow

  3. Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Troin

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that the CRCM captures the primary features of observed climate, but there are significant biases. Most noteworthy are a positive bias in precipitation and a negative bias in temperature over the BC basin. When looking at the hydrological modeling results, the benefit of using the RCM versus GCMs emerged distinctly for the mountainous BC basin where the RCM is preferred over the GCMs. The sensitivity experiments show that uncertainty in the GCM/RCM’s internal variability must be assessed to provide suitable regional hydrological responses to climate change.

  4. Hydrologic Remote Sensing and Land Surface Data Assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradkhani, Hamid

    2008-05-06

    Accurate, reliable and skillful forecasting of key environmental variables such as soil moisture and snow are of paramount importance due to their strong influence on many water resources applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management which collectively control the behavior of the climate system. Soil moisture is a key state variable in land surface-atmosphere interactions affecting surface energy fluxes, runoff and the radiation balance. Snow processes also have a large influence on land-atmosphere energy exchanges due to snow high albedo, low thermal conductivity and considerable spatial and temporal variability resulting in the dramatic change on surface and ground temperature. Measurement of these two variables is possible through variety of methods using ground-based and remote sensing procedures. Remote sensing, however, holds great promise for soil moisture and snow measurements which have considerable spatial and temporal variability. Merging these measurements with hydrologic model outputs in a systematic and effective way results in an improvement of land surface model prediction. Data Assimilation provides a mechanism to combine these two sources of estimation. Much success has been attained in recent years in using data from passive microwave sensors and assimilating them into the models. This paper provides an overview of the remote sensing measurement techniques for soil moisture and snow data and describes the advances in data assimilation techniques through the ensemble filtering, mainly Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and Particle filter (PF), for improving the model prediction and reducing the uncertainties involved in prediction process. It is believed that PF provides a complete representation of the probability distribution of state variables of interests (according to sequential Bayes law) and could be a strong alternative to EnKF which is subject to some limitations including the linear

  5. Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx

  6. A Projection of the Effects of the Climate Change Induced by Increased CO2 on Extreme Hydrologic Events in the Western U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jinwon

    2005-01-01

    The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040-2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes, downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO2 is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in todays climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean

  7. Understanding the Hydrologic Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed to Forest Management and Climate Change in South Carolina, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Lu; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; S. V. Harder; Steve G. McNulty

    2006-01-01

    The hydrologic processes in wetland ecosystems are not well understood. There are also great concerns and uncertainties about the hydrologic response of wetlands to forest management and climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a hydrologic model to better understand the hydrologic processes of a low relief coastal forested watershed and its responses to...

  8. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2011-12-01

    Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision

  9. NOAA Climate Data Records (CDR) of AMSU-A/B and MHS Hydrological Properties, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Hydrological Properties for Applications Thematic Climate Data Record (TCDR) consist of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), Advanced Microwave...

  10. Effects of climate change on hydrology, water resources, and soil [Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Muir; Charles H. Luce; Joseph T. Gurrieri; Marek Matyjasik; Jeffrey L. Bruggink; Stacey L. Weems; James C. Hurja; David B. Marr; Sarah D. Leahy

    2018-01-01

    Water is critical to life, and many of the effects of climate change on ecosystems are mediated through altered hydrology. Snow accumulation and melt are consistently cited as the most important changes to water in the western United States (Barnett et al. 2005; Service 2004), affecting when water will be available for forests, fish, and people. Changes in summer...

  11. Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, I.

    2006-01-01

    Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  12. Evaluation of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes at the watershed scale is needed by land managers and policy makers to properly assess potential adaptation strategies. While numerous studies have been conducted on hydrologic processes in the Midwest, only a few have analyzed the l...

  13. Modelling land surface - atmosphere interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Søren Højmark

    representation of groundwater in the hydrological model is found to important and this imply resolving the small river valleys. Because, the important shallow groundwater is found in the river valleys. If the model does not represent the shallow groundwater then the area mean surface flux calculation......The study is investigates modelling of land surface – atmosphere interactions in context of fully coupled climatehydrological model. With a special focus of under what condition a fully coupled model system is needed. Regional climate model inter-comparison projects as ENSEMBLES have shown bias...... by the hydrological model is found to be insensitive to model resolution. Furthermore, this study highlights the effect of bias precipitation by regional climate model and it implications for hydrological modelling....

  14. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  15. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof [Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Werner, Kent [SWECO VIAK AB/Golder Associates AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Juston, John [DBE Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2005-06-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is conducting site investigations at two different locations, the Forsmark and Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The results from the investigations at the sites are used as a basic input to the development of Site Descriptive Models (SDM). The SDM shall summarise the current state of knowledge of the site, and provide parameters and models to be used in further analyses within Safety Assessment, Repository Design and Environmental Impact Assessment. The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 'data freeze' (July 31, 2004). The groundwater is very shallow, with groundwater levels within one meter below ground as an annual mean for almost all groundwater monitoring wells. Also, the annual groundwater level amplitude is less than 1.5 m for most wells. The shallow groundwater levels mean that there is a strong interaction between evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater. In the modelling, surface water and near-surface groundwater divides are assumed to coincide. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The observed differences in levels are not fully consistent with the good hydraulic contact between overburden and bedrock indicated by the hydraulic tests in the Quaternary deposits. However, the relatively lower groundwater levels in the bedrock may be caused by the horizontal to sub-horizontal highly

  16. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  17. Hydrological model calibration for flood prediction in current and future climates using probability distributions of observed peak flows and model based rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberlandt, Uwe; Wallner, Markus; Radtke, Imke

    2013-04-01

    Derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous hydrological modelling is very demanding regarding the required length and temporal resolution of precipitation input data. Often such flood predictions are obtained using long precipitation time series from stochastic approaches or from regional climate models as input. However, the calibration of the hydrological model is usually done using short time series of observed data. This inconsistent employment of different data types for calibration and application of a hydrological model increases its uncertainty. Here, it is proposed to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using model based rainfall in line with its later application. Two examples are given to illustrate the idea. The first one deals with classical derived flood frequency analysis using input data from an hourly stochastic rainfall model. The second one concerns a climate impact analysis using hourly precipitation from a regional climate model. The results show that: (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated on extreme conditions works quite well for average conditions but not vice versa, (III) the calibration of the hydrological model using regional climate model data works as an implicit bias correction method and (IV) the best performance for flood estimation is usually obtained when model based precipitation and observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration.

  18. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

  19. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  20. Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

    2017-10-01

    The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

  1. Surface hydrology of drainage basins disturbed by surface mining and reclamation, central Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritter, J.B.

    1990-01-01

    Infilration capacity of newly reclaimed minesoils is uniformly low (< 1 cm/hr) and generally increases (up to 6 cm/hr) with age, the magnitude of increase being dependent on soil characteristics and vegetation. In drainage basins with lower rates of infiltration recovery (< 2 cm/hr), infiltration-excess overland flow is the dominant runoff process. Increased peek runoff rate and stream power in the basins are sufficient to initiate drainage network evolution, with phases of network expansion and abstraction. In contrast, in basins where infiltration recovery is greater than 2 cm/hr, the hydrologic system is initially dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow but evolves toward a system dominated by saturation overland flow. Drainage development is limited to skeletal network initiation and elongation and occurs during the early period of infiltration-excess dominated flow conditions. Total runoff remains essentially constant due to increased proportions of return flow, reflected in the extended and less steep recession limb of saturation-dominated storm hydrographs. The results of this study are applicable to hydrologic prediction for purposes of surface mine permitting and reclamation design. Previously limited availability of rainfall-runoff data from watersheds disturbed by surface mining preclude adequate calibration of empirical methods, such as the runoff curve number method, or evaluation of a more sophisticated approach, such as the use of distributed hydrologic models, for hydrologic prediction. Runoff curve numbers calibrated by means of rainfall-runoff data from the study drainage basins indicate that presently accepted methods of determining curve numbers, using pre-mine soil classification, underestimate total runoff by as much as 50%

  2. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  3. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

    2015-03-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow

  4. Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qingxia; Wu, Zhiyong; Singh, Vijay P.; Sadeghi, S. H. R.; He, Hai; Lu, Guihua

    2017-06-01

    The Xijiang River is known as the Golden Watercourse because of its role in the development of the Pearl River Delta Regional Economic System in China, which was made possible by its abundant water resources. At present, the hydrological regime of the Xijiang River has now become complicated, the water shortages and successive droughts pose a threat to regional economic development. However, the complexity of hydroclimatological processes with emphasizes on drought has not been comprehended. In order to effectively predict and develop the adaptation strategies to cope with the water scarcity damage caused by hydrological droughts, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the relationship between hydrological droughts and pre/post-dependent hydroclimatological factors. To accomplish this, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) was utilized to reveal the periodic variation in hydrological droughts that is characterized by the Standardized Drought Index (SDI). In addition, the cross-wavelet transform method was applied to investigate the correlation between large-scale climate indices and drought. The results showed that hydrological drought had the most significant response to spring ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), and the response lags in sub-basins were mostly 8-9 months except that in Yujiang River were mainly 5 or 8 months. Signal reservoir operation in the Yujiang River reduced drought severity by 52-95.8% from January to April over the 2003-2014 time period. Similarly, the cascade reservoir alleviated winter and spring droughts in the Hongshuihe River Basin. However, autumn drought was aggravated with severity increased by 41.9% in September and by 160.9% in October, so that the land surface models without considering human intervention must be used with caution in the hydrological simulation. The response lags of the VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) to hydrological drought were different in the sub-basins. The response lag for the

  5. Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagena, Moges B; Collick, Amy S; Ross, Andrew C; Najjar, Raymond G; Rau, Benjamin; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Fuka, Daniel R; Kleinman, Peter J A; Easton, Zachary M

    2018-05-16

    Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO 3 -), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and di-nitrogen (N 2 ). Model-average (±standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 ± 12.3%), NO 3 - (17.3 ± 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 ± 18.4%), total P (24.8 ± 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 ± 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N 2 O (0.3 ± 4.8%) and N 2 (0.2 ± 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 ± 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 ± 26.4%), total P (-16.3 ± 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 ± 18.3%), and NO 3 - (-29.1 ± 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N 2 O (-26.9 ± 15.7%) and N 2 (-36.6 ± 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. Copyright © 2018

  6. Assessment and Enhancement of MERRA Land Surface Hydrology Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf H.; Koster, Randal D.; deLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Forman, Barton A.; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Toure, Ally

    2012-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-ofthe-art reanalysis that provides, in addition to atmospheric fields, global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux, snow, and runoff for 1979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ("MERRA-Land") generated by re-running a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically, the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameter values in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-I root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 18 US basins) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-I. With a few exceptions, the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using MERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  7. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  8. HIMALA: climate impacts on glaciers, snow, and hydrology in the Himalayan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; Bajracharya, Sagar R.; Racoviteanu, Adina

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world's population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  9. HIMALA: Climate Impacts on Glaciers, Snow, and Hydrology in the Himalayan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Ouyang, Hua; Habib, Shahid; Shrestha, Basanta; Shrestha, Mandira; Panday, Prajjwal; Tzortziou, Maria; Policelli, Frederick; Artan, Guleid; Giriraj, Amarnath; hide

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers are the largest reservoir of freshwater on Earth, supporting one third of the world s population. The Himalaya possess one of the largest resources of snow and ice, which act as a freshwater reservoir for more than 1.3 billion people. This article describes a new project called HIMALA, which focuses on utilizing satellite-based products for better understanding of hydrological processes of the river basins of the region. With support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), together with its partners and member countries, has been working on the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates for flood prediction. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) partners are working with ICIMOD to incorporate snowmelt and glacier melt into a widely used hydrological model. Thus, through improved modeling of the contribution of snow and ice meltwater to river flow in the region, the HIMALA project will improve the ability of ICIMOD and its partners to understand the impact of weather and climate on floods, droughts, and other water- and climate-induced natural hazards in the Himalayan region in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan.

  10. Hydrologic Responses to Projected Climate Change in Ecologically-Vulnerable Watersheds of the Gulf Coast, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle of the Gulf Coast watersheds in the United States, which contain some of the highest levels of biodiversity of all freshwater systems in North America. Understanding potential hydrologic responses to continued climate change in these watersheds is important for management of water resources and to sustain ecological diversity. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrologic processes and estimate the potential hydrological changes for the mid-21st century (2050s) and the late-21st century (2080s) in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds located in the Gulf Coast, USA. These estimates were based on downscaled future climate projections from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Models were calibrated and validated using observed data from 58, 19, and 14 streamflow gauges in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds, respectively. Evaluation indices including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and refined index of agreement (dr) were used to assess model quality. The mean values derived during calibration (NSE=0.68, R2=0.77, and dr=0.73) and validation (NSE=0.70, R2=0.78, and dr=0.74) of all watersheds indicated that the models performed well at simulating monthly streamflow. Our simulation results indicated an overall increase in mean annual streamflow for all the watersheds with a maximum increase in discharge of 28.6% for the Suwannee River watershed for RCP 4.5 during the 2080s, which is associated with a 6.8% increase in precipitation during the same time period. We observed an overall warming (4.2oC) with an increase in future precipitation (3.8%) in all watersheds during the 2080s under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the historical time period. Despite an increase in future precipitation, surface

  11. Green roof impact on the hydrological cycle components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamera, Carlotta; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Becciu, Gianfranco; Rosso, Renzo

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades the importance of storm water management in urban areas has increased considerably, due to both urbanization extension and to a greater concern for environment pollution. Traditional storm water control practices, based on the "all to the sewer" attitude, rely on conveyance to route storm water runoff from urban impervious surfaces towards the nearby natural water bodies. In recent years, infiltration facilities are receiving an increasing attention, due to their particular efficiency in restoring a balance in hydrological cycle quite equal to quite pre-urbanization condition. In particular, such techniques are designed to capture, temporarily retain and infiltrate storm water, promote evapotranspiration and harvest water at the source, encouraging in general evaporation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and the re-use of storm water. Green roofs are emerging as an increasingly popular Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) technique for urban storm water management. Indeed, they are able to operate hydrologic control over storm water runoff: they allow a significant reduction of peak flows and runoff volumes collected by drainage system, with a consequent reduction of flooding events and pollution masses discharges by CSO. Furthermore green roofs have a positive influence on the microclimate in urban areas by helping in lower urban air temperatures and mitigate the heat island effect. Last but not least, they have the advantage of improving the thermal insulation of buildings, with significant energy savings. A detailed analysis of the hydrological dynamics, connected both with the characteristics of the climatic context and with the green roof technical design, is essential in order to obtain a full characterization of the hydrologic behavior of a green roof system and its effects on the urban water cycle components. The purpose of this paper is to analysis the hydrological effects and urban benefits of the vegetation cover of a

  12. Development and Application of Improved Long-Term Datasets of Surface Hydrology for Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungtae Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Freshwater availability and agricultural production are key factors for sustaining the fast growing population and economy in the state of Texas, which is the third largest state in terms of agricultural production in the United States. This paper describes a long-term (1918–2011 grid-based (1/8° surface hydrological dataset for Texas at a daily time step based on simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC hydrological model. The model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow over 10 Texas river basins. The simulated soil moisture was also evaluated using in situ observations. Results suggest that there is a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in temperature in most of the basins. Droughts and floods were reconstructed and analyzed. In particular, the spatially distributed severity and duration of major Texas droughts were compared to identify new characteristics. The modeled flood recurrence interval and the return period were also compared with observations. Results suggest the performance of extreme flood simulations needs further improvement. This dataset is expected to serve as a benchmark which may contribute to water resources management and to mitigating agricultural drought, especially in the context of understanding the effects of climate change on crop yield in Texas.

  13. Identifying and Evaluating the Relationships that Control a Land Surface Model's Hydrological Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, Sarith P.

    2012-01-01

    The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today 's land surface models (LSMs) arguably reflect a lot of guesswork given the lack of contemporaneous evaporation and soil moisture observations at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. The inherent soil moisture-runoff relationships used in the LSMs are also of uncertain accuracy. Evaluating these relationships is difficult but crucial given that they have a major impact on how the land component contributes to hydrological and meteorological variability within the climate system. The relationships, it turns out, can be examined efficiently and effectively with a simple water balance model framework. The simple water balance model, driven with multi-decadal observations covering the conterminous United States, shows how different prescribed relationships lead to different manifestations of hydrological variability, some of which can be compared directly to observations. Through the testing of a wide suite of relationships, the simple model provides estimates for the underlying relationships that operate in nature and that should be operating in LSMs. We examine the relationships currently used in a number of different LSMs in the context of the simple water balance model results and make recommendations for potential first-order improvements to these LSMs.

  14. Plot-scale field experiment of surface hydrologic processes with EOS implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles A.; Macari, Emir J.; Costes, Nicholas C.

    1992-01-01

    Plot-scale hydrologic field studies were initiated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to a) investigate the spatial and temporal variability of surface and subsurface hydrologic processes, particularly as affected by vegetation, and b) develop experimental techniques and associated instrumentation methodology to study hydrologic processes at increasingly large spatial scales. About 150 instruments, most of which are remotely operated, have been installed at the field site to monitor ground atmospheric conditions, precipitation, interception, soil-water status, and energy flux. This paper describes the nature of the field experiment, instrumentation and sampling rationale, and presents preliminary findings.

  15. Climate change and watershed mercury export in a Coastal Plain watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather Golden; Christopher D. Knightes; Paul A. Conrads; Toby D. Feaster; Gary M. Davis; Stephen T. Benedict; Paul M. Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Future changes in climatic conditions may affect variations in watershed processes (e.g., hydrological, biogeochemical) and surface water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such climatic shifts will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern.

  16. Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

  17. Modelling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: Generating scenarios for stream salamanders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eGirard

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid modelling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modelling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modelling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders’ reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

  18. Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

    2014-05-01

    Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy

  19. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle in Tana river basin to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutua, F.M.

    1998-01-01

    The Tana River basin in Kenya has four distinct climates along it's gradient from cool humid in mount Kenya region through arid and semi arid in the lower plains to semi humid coastal climate. From the highlands of mount Kenya to the plateau on the lowlands, the river traverses some sections which have high potential for hydro-electric power generation. The government has constructed water reovirus to collect water for electricity generation. The influence of the reovirus have also caused climate modification. The aim of the study was to investigate the sensitivity of the river flows in the Tana river to climate change. The study indicates that, as long as temperature increment of up to 2 degrees centigrade are accompanied by positive changes (greater than 10%) in rainfall over the basin, then the hydrologic cycle adjust itself accordingly to give a positive response (increased runoff) in terms of the river at the outlet

  20. Sensitivity of pine flatwoods hydrology to climate change and forest management in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Nicholas B. Comerford

    2009-01-01

    Pine flatwoods (a mixture of cypress wetlands and managed pine uplands) is an important ecosystem in the southeastern U.S. However, long-term hydrologic impacts of forest management and climate change on this heterogeneous landscape are not well understood. Therefore, this study examined the sensitivity of cypress-pine flatwoods...

  1. Analysis of the impact of climate change on groundwater related hydrological fluxes: a multi-model approach including different downscaling methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stoll

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change related modifications in the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration will have an impact on groundwater resources. This study presents a modelling approach exploiting the advantages of integrated hydrological modelling and a broad climate model basis. We applied the integrated MIKE SHE model on a perialpine, small catchment in northern Switzerland near Zurich. To examine the impact of climate change we forced the hydrological model with data from eight GCM-RCM combinations showing systematic biases which are corrected by three different statistical downscaling methods, not only for precipitation but also for the variables that govern potential evapotranspiration. The downscaling methods are evaluated in a split sample test and the sensitivity of the downscaling procedure on the hydrological fluxes is analyzed. The RCMs resulted in very different projections of potential evapotranspiration and, especially, precipitation. All three downscaling methods reduced the differences between the predictions of the RCMs and all corrected predictions showed no future groundwater stress which can be related to an expected increase in precipitation during winter. It turned out that especially the timing of the precipitation and thus recharge is very important for the future development of the groundwater levels. However, the simulation experiments revealed the weaknesses of the downscaling methods which directly influence the predicted hydrological fluxes, and thus also the predicted groundwater levels. The downscaling process is identified as an important source of uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, which has to be accounted for. Therefore it is strongly recommended to test different downscaling methods by using verification data before applying them to climate model data.

  2. Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Surface and near-surface hydrological modelling in the biosphere assessment BSA-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-05-01

    The Finnish nuclear waste disposal company, Posiva Oy, is planning an underground repository for spent nuclear fuel to be constructed on the island of Olkiluoto on the south-west coast of Finland. This study is part of the biosphere assessment (BSA-2012) within the safety case for the repository. The surface hydrological modelling described in this report is aimed at providing link between radionuclide transport in the geosphere and in the biosphere systems. The SVAT-model and Olkiluoto site scale surface hydrological model were calibrated and validated in the present day conditions using the input data provided by the Olkiluoto Monitoring Programme (OMO). During the next 10 000 years the terrain and ecosystem development is to a large extent driven by the postglacial crustal uplift. UNTAMO is a GIS toolbox developed for simulating land-uplift driven or other changes in the biosphere. All the spatial and temporal input data (excluding meteorological data) needed in the surface hydrological modelling were provided by the UNTAMO toolbox. The specific outputs given by UNTAMO toolbox are time-dependent evolution of the biosphere objects. They are continuous and sufficiently homogeneous sub-areas of the modelled area that could potentially receive radionuclides released from the repository. Possible ecosystem types for biosphere objects are coast, lake, river, forest, cropland, pasture and wetland. The primary goal of this study was to compute vertical and horizontal water fluxes in the biosphere objects. These data will be used in the biosphere radionuclide transport calculations. The method adopted here is based on calculating average vertical and horizontal fluxes for biosphere objects from the results of the full 3D-model. It was not necessary to develop any simplified hydrological model for the biosphere objects. This report includes modelling results from for the Reference Case (present day climate) and Terr M axAgri Case (maximum extent of agricultural areas and

  3. Climate and Hydrological Data Analysis for hydrological and solute transport modelling purposes in the Muriaé River basin, Atlantic Forest Biome, SE Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Juliana; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven; Fink, Manfred; Brenning, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The Muriaé River basin in SE Brazil has been experiencing an increasing pressure on water resources, due to the population growth of the Rio de Janeiro urban area connected with the growth of the industrial and agricultural sector. This leads to water scarcity, riverine forest degradation, soil erosion and water quality problems among other impacts. Additionally the region has been suffering with seasonal precipitation variations leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and landslides. Climate projections for the near future indicate a high inter-annual variability of rainfall with an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events combined with a statistically significant increase in the duration of dry periods and a reduced duration of wet periods. This may lead to increased soil erosion during the wet season, while the longer dry periods may reduce the vegetation cover, leaving the soil even more exposed and vulnerable to soil erosion. In consequence, it is crucial to understand how climate affects the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. In this context, physically-based hydrological modelling can contribute to a better understanding of spatial-temporal process dynamics in the Earth's system and support Integrated Water Resourses Management (IWRM) and adaptation strategies. The study area is the Muriaé river basin which has an area of approx. 8000 km² in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro States. The basin is representative of a region of domain of hillslopes areas with the predominancy of pasture for livestock production. This study will present some of the relevant analyses which have been carried out on data (climate and streamflow) prior to using them for hydrological modelling, including consistency checks, homogeneity, pattern and statistical analyses, or annual and seasonal trends detection. Several inconsistencies on the raw data were

  4. Hydrologic Remote Sensing and Land Surface Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Moradkhani

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate, reliable and skillful forecasting of key environmental variables such as soil moisture and snow are of paramount importance due to their strong influence on many water resources applications including flood control, agricultural production and effective water resources management which collectively control the behavior of the climate system. Soil moisture is a key state variable in land surface–atmosphere interactions affecting surface energy fluxes, runoff and the radiation balance. Snow processes also have a large influence on land-atmosphere energy exchanges due to snow high albedo, low thermal conductivity and considerable spatial and temporal variability resulting in the dramatic change on surface and ground temperature. Measurement of these two variables is possible through variety of methods using ground-based and remote sensing procedures. Remote sensing, however, holds great promise for soil moisture and snow measurements which have considerable spatial and temporal variability. Merging these measurements with hydrologic model outputs in a systematic and effective way results in an improvement of land surface model prediction. Data Assimilation provides a mechanism to combine these two sources of estimation. Much success has been attained in recent years in using data from passive microwave sensors and assimilating them into the models. This paper provides an overview of the remote sensing measurement techniques for soil moisture and snow data and describes the advances in data assimilation techniques through the ensemble filtering, mainly Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and Particle filter (PF, for improving the model prediction and reducing the uncertainties involved in prediction process. It is believed that PF provides a complete representation of the probability distribution of state variables of interests (according to sequential Bayes law and could be a strong alternative to EnKF which is subject to some

  5. Nuclear techniques in hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahadur, J.; Saxena, R.K.

    1974-01-01

    Several types of sealed radioactive sources, stable isotopes and water soluble radioactive tracers, used by different investigators, have been listed for studying the dynamic behaviour of water in nature. In general, all the facets of hydrological cycle, are amenable to these isotopic techniques. It is recommended that environmental isotopes data collection should be started for studying the water balance and also the interrelationships between surface and subsurface water in various rivers catchments with changing physical, geological and climatic parameters. (author)

  6. Hydrology of surface waters and thermohaline circulation during the last glacial period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidal, L.

    1996-01-01

    Sedimentological studies on oceanic cores from the north Atlantic have revealed, over the last glacial period, abrupt climatic changes with a periodicity of several thousand years which contrasts strongly with the glacial-interglacial periodicity (several tens of thousand years). These periods of abrupt climate changes correspond to massive icebergs discharges into the north Atlantic. The aim of this work was to study the evolution of the thermohaline circulation in relation to these episodic iceberg discharges which punctuated the last 60 ka. To reconstruct the oceanic circulation in the past, we have analysed oxygen and carbon stable isotopes on benthic foraminifera from north Atlantic deep-sea cores. First of all, the higher temporal resolution of sedimentary records has enabled us to establish a precise chrono-stratigraphy for the different cores. Then, we have shown the close linkage between surface water hydrology and deep circulation, giving evidence of the sensibility of thermohaline circulation to melt water input in the north Atlantic ocean. Indeed, changes in deep circulation are synchronous from those identified in surface waters and are recorded on a period which lasted ∼ 1500 years. Deep circulation reconstructions, before and during a typical iceberg discharge reveal several modes of circulation linked to different convection sites at the high latitudes of the Atlantic basin. Moreover, the study of the last glacial period gives the opportunity to differentiate circulation changes due to the external forcing (variations of the orbital parameters) and those linked to a more local forcing (icebergs discharges). 105 refs., 50 figs., 14 tabs., 4 appends

  7. Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) User's Manual; Version 1.43 for Watershed Modeling System 6.1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Downer, Charles W; Ogden, Fred L

    2006-01-01

    The need to simulate surface water flows in watersheds with diverse runoff production mechanisms has led to the development of the physically-based hydrologic model Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA...

  8. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  9. Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

    2015-04-01

    This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

  10. The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

  11. A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

    2012-01-01

    Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

  12. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Frozen Soil and Eco-hydrology in the Source Region of Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Y.; Yang, D.; Gao, B.

    2016-12-01

    The source region of Yellow River, located in the transition zone of discontinuous and continuous permafrost on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, has experienced dramatic climate change during the past decades. The long-term changes in the seasonally frozen ground remarkably affected the eco-hydrological processes in the source region and the water availability in the middle and lower reaches. In this study, we employed a geomorphology-based eco-hydrological model (GBEHM) to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change on the frozen soil and regional eco-hydrology. It was found that the air temperature has increased by 2.1 °C since the 1960s and most significantly during the recent decade (0.67 °C /10a), while there was no significant trend of the precipitation. Based on a 34-year (1981-2014) simulation, the maximum frozen soil depth was in the range of 0.7-2.1 m and decreased by 1.5-7.9 cm/10a because of the warming climate. The model simulation adequately reproduced the observed streamflow changes, including the drought period in the 1990s and wet period in the 2000s, and the variability in hydrological behavior was closely associated with the climate and landscape conditions. The vegetation responses to climate changes manifested as advancing green-up dates and increasing leaf area index at the initial stage of growing season. Our study shows that the ecohydrological processes are changing along with the frozen soil degradation in headwater areas on the Tibetan Plateau, which could influence the availability of water resources in the middle and lower reaches.

  13. Influence of spatial variations of microtopography and infiltration on surface runoff and field scale hydrological connectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Appels, W.M.; Bogaart, P.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2011-01-01

    Surface runoff on agricultural fields arises when rainfall exceeds infiltration. Excess water ponding in and flowing through local microtopography increases the hydrological connectivity of fields. In turn, an increased level of hydrological connectivity leads to a higher surface runoff flux at the

  14. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by the Water Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the Principality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  15. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies. Vol. I. Proceedings of an International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by theWater Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the P rincipality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  16. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  17. Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

    2013-01-01

    In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

  18. The IAHR project CCHE-Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering: an overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranzi, Roberto; Kojiri, T.; Mynett, A.; Barontini, S.; van de Giesen, N.; Kolokytha, E.; Ngo, L. A.; Oreamuno, R.; Renard, B.; Sighomnou, D.; Vizina, A.

    2010-05-01

    IAHR, the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research launched a research Project called Climate Change impact on the Hydrological cycle, water management and Engineering (IAHR CCHE Project). It was motivated by the fact that, although it is now well accepted that, in the light of the recent IPCC reports the vast majority of members of the scientific community are convinced that the climate is changing or at least will experience a significant fluctuation already during the current century, it is perceived that some hydrologists, water experts and hydraulic engineers are not yet ready to incorporate climate change scenarios in their designs for such projects as: - flood protection and river training, - dam rehabilitation, - water resources management under water scarcity and changes in the hydrological regimes. The objective of the project is to encourage a close co-operation between the scientific and engineering communities in taking appropriate and timely action in response to the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and on water resource projects. The project aims at reporting on (a) the current state of knowledge as regards the impact of projected climate change on the hydrological regime in different regions of the world, where these regions are defined not just in geographic terms but also on the basis of their level of economic and water resources development; (b) the extent to which these impacts are recognized and taken into account by national water authorities, engineering organizations and other regulating bodies in setting their standard practices and procedures for the planning, design and operation of water works. These adaptation measures will include both "hard" responses, such as the construction or enlargement of engineering structures, and "soft" responses, such as changes in legislation or the operating rules of existing structures. An overview of the project and preliminary results extracted from of

  19. Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

    2011-01-01

    Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

  20. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  1. A comparative analysis of the impacts of climate change and irrigation on land surface and subsurface hydrology in the North China Plain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-01

    The Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) was used to investigate and compare the effects of climate change and irrigation on terrestrial water cycle. Three climate change scenarios and one irrigation scenario (IRRIG) were simulated in the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and human perturbations in China. The climate change scenarios consist of (1) HOT (i.e. temperature increase by 2oC); (2) HOTWET (same with HOT but with an increase of precipitation by 15%); (3) HOTDRY (same with HOT but with a decrease of precipitation by 15%). In the IRRIG scenario, the irrigation scheme was calibrated to simulate irrigation amounts that match the actual irrigation amounts and irrigation was divided between surface water and groundwater withdrawals based on census data. Our results show that the impacts of climate change were more widespread while those of irrigation were concentrated only over the agricultural regions. Specifically, the mean water table depth was simulated to decline persistently by over 1 m annually due to groundwater exploitation during the period of 1980-2000, while much smaller effects were induced by climate change. Although irrigation has comparable effects on surface fluxes and surface soil moisture as climate change, it has much greater effects on water table depth and groundwater storage. Moreover, irrigation has much larger effects on the top layer soil moisture whereas increase in precipitation associated with climate change exerts more influence on lower layer soil moisture. This study emphasizes the need to accurately account for irrigation impacts in adapting to climate change.

  2. Roles of Fog and Topography in Redwood Forest Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, E. J.; Asner, G. P.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial variability of water in forests is a function of both climatic gradients that control water inputs and topo-edaphic variation that determines the flows of water belowground, as well as interactions of climate with topography. Coastal redwood forests are hydrologically unique because they are influenced by coastal low clouds, or fog, that is advected onto land by a strong coastal-to-inland temperature difference. Where fog intersects the land surface, annual water inputs from summer fog drip can be greater than that of winter rainfall. In this study, we take advantage of mapped spatial gradients in forest canopy water storage, topography, and fog cover in California to better understand the roles and interactions of fog and topography in the hydrology of redwood forests. We test a conceptual model of redwood forest hydrology with measurements of canopy water content derived from high-resolution airborne imaging spectroscopy, topographic variables derived from high-resolution LiDAR data, and fog cover maps derived from NASA MODIS data. Landscape-level results provide insight into hydrological processes within redwood forests, and cross-site analyses shed light on their generality.

  3. Application of 2H and 18O in hydrological studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stichler, W.

    1980-08-01

    Due to isotope fractionation effects there exist typical variations in isotope content in the hydrological cycle. The greatest changes in isotope concentration occur in precipitation and can be described in terms of global and local effects. In surface waters the fluctuations in isotope content can be used for many hydrological investigations such as river mixing and lake studies. The isotope effects in the formation of precipitation also enable conclusions about the residence time and the origin of groundwater i.e. its catchment area, and about the climatic conditions prevailing at the time of groundwater recharge. In two expamples the interrelations between precipitation and surface or groundwater as well as between surface water and groundwater show the application of isotope techniques. (orig.) [de

  4. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiticar, M. J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N. [Northern Forestry Centre, St Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2013-07-15

    Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH{sub 4} production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  6. Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron Wobus

    Full Text Available We developed an integrated hydrologic model of the upper Nushagak and Kvichak watersheds in the Bristol Bay region of southwestern Alaska, a region under substantial development pressure from large-scale copper mining. We incorporated climate change scenarios into this model to evaluate how hydrologic regimes and stream temperatures might change in a future climate, and to summarize indicators of hydrologic alteration that are relevant to salmon habitat ecology and life history. Model simulations project substantial changes in mean winter flow, peak flow dates, and water temperature by 2100. In particular, we find that annual hydrographs will no longer be dominated by a single spring thaw event, but will instead be characterized by numerous high flow events throughout the winter. Stream temperatures increase in all future scenarios, although these temperature increases are moderated relative to air temperatures by cool baseflow inputs during the summer months. Projected changes to flow and stream temperature could influence salmon through alterations in the suitability of spawning gravels, changes in the duration of incubation, increased growth during juvenile stages, and increased exposure to chronic and acute temperature stress. These climate-modulated changes represent a shifting baseline in salmon habitat quality and quantity in the future, and an important consideration to adequately assess the types and magnitude of risks associated with proposed large-scale mining in the region.

  7. Evaluating the impact of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bellin, Alberto; Majone, Bruno; Bovolo, C. Isabella; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.

    2010-05-01

    Quantification of the impacts of climate change on water resources depends on the emission scenario, climate model, downscaling technique and impact model used to drive the impact study. Uncertainties in projections of climate models and those involved in the quantification of its hydrological response limit the understanding of future impacts and complicate the assessment of mitigation policies. This work analyses the effects of climate change on water resources of the Ebro River Basin (NE Spain), considering the combined effect of uncertainty characterizing both the driving Regional Climate Model (RCM) and hydrological parameterization. In addition, we considered the relative importance of these two contributions. Hydrological simulations in a few test catchments within the basin were performed by using the SWAT model, a widely used hydrological model often applied to large-scale watersheds. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis with Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT), the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology was used for selecting hydrological parameter sets that best reproduced the observed streamflow during the control period from 1961 to 1991, in terms of percentage of measured data bracketed by the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and the ratio between the average thickness of the 95PPU band and the standard deviation of the measured data. Following validation, the same parameter sets were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflows. A simple bias-correction methodology was used for downscaling daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 RCM time-slice experiments. These were obtained from the PRUDENCE project for a control period (1961-1990) and for a future time period (2071-2100) using the medium-high SRES A2 emissions scenario. The bias-corrected future RCM scenarios were then used to drive the hydrological simulations during the future period

  8. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  9. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

  10. Quantifying the Relative Contributions of Forest Change and Climatic Variability to Hydrology in Large Watersheds: A Critical Review of Research Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohua Wei

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest change and climatic variability are two major drivers for influencing change in watershed hydrology in forest–dominated watersheds. Quantifying their relative contributions is important to fully understand their individual effects. This review paper summarizes the progress on quantifying the relative contributions of forest or land cover change and climatic variability to hydrology in large watersheds using available case studies. It compared pros and cons of various research methods, identified research challenges and proposed future research priorities. Our synthesis shows that the relative hydrological effects of forest changes and climatic variability are largely dependent on their own change magnitudes and watershed characteristics. In some severely disturbed watersheds, impacts of forest changes or land use changes can be as important as those from climatic variability. This paper provides a brief review on eight selected research methods for this type of research. Because each method or technique has its own strengths and weaknesses, combining two or more methods is a more robust approach than using any single method alone. Future research priorities include conducting more case studies, refining research methods, and considering mechanism-based research using landscape ecology and geochemistry approaches.

  11. Methodological challenges to bridge the gap between regional climate and hydrology models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozhinova, Denica; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Raible, Christoph; Felder, Guido

    2017-04-01

    The frequency and severity of floods worldwide, together with their impacts, are expected to increase under climate change scenarios. It is therefore very important to gain insight into the physical mechanisms responsible for such events in order to constrain the associated uncertainties. Model simulations of the climate and hydrological processes are important tools that can provide insight in the underlying physical processes and thus enable an accurate assessment of the risks. Coupled together, they can provide a physically consistent picture that allows to assess the phenomenon in a comprehensive way. However, climate and hydrological models work at different temporal and spatial scales, so there are a number of methodological challenges that need to be carefully addressed. An important issue pertains the presence of biases in the simulation of precipitation. Climate models in general, and Regional Climate models (RCMs) in particular, are affected by a number of systematic biases that limit their reliability. In many studies, prominently the assessment of changes due to climate change, such biases are minimised by applying the so-called delta approach, which focuses on changes disregarding absolute values that are more affected by biases. However, this approach is not suitable in this scenario, as the absolute value of precipitation, rather than the change, is fed into the hydrological model. Therefore, bias has to be previously removed, being this a complex matter where various methodologies have been proposed. In this study, we apply and discuss the advantages and caveats of two different methodologies that correct the simulated precipitation to minimise differences with respect an observational dataset: a linear fit (FIT) of the accumulated distributions and Quantile Mapping (QM). The target region is Switzerland, and therefore the observational dataset is provided by MeteoSwiss. The RCM is the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), driven at the

  12. Role of modern climate and hydrology in world oil preservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szatmari, Peter

    1992-12-01

    The accumulation of oil requires a favorable source, a reservoir, good seal-rock quality, and suitably timed thermal history and structuring. The accumulated oil, especially its light fractions, may be subsequently removed by hydrologically controlled processes such as water washing, biodegradation, and tilting of the oil-water contact. These processes are dependent on the climate. In regions that have become increasingly cold or dry during late Cenozoic time, low rainfall, low ground-water flow rates, and low input of nutrients and microorganisms have protected the oil; in warm or temperate rainy climates, high flow rates and high input of nutrients and microorganisms have led to partial or total removal of oil. Thus, most of the rich (>500 000 barrels/day) oil provinces on land are in cold or dry regions, where water is recharged in highlands that receive little rain (sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, India, and most of China, rich oil provinces on land (outside young deltas) are rare, and biodegradation is widespread.

  13. High-resolution downscaling for hydrological management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulbrich, Uwe; Rust, Henning; Meredith, Edmund; Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Vagenas, Christos

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological modellers and water managers require high-resolution climate data to model regional hydrologies and how these may respond to future changes in the large-scale climate. The ability to successfully model such changes and, by extension, critical infrastructure planning is often impeded by a lack of suitable climate data. This typically takes the form of too-coarse data from climate models, which are not sufficiently detailed in either space or time to be able to support water management decisions and hydrological research. BINGO (Bringing INnovation in onGOing water management; ) aims to bridge the gap between the needs of hydrological modellers and planners, and the currently available range of climate data, with the overarching aim of providing adaptation strategies for climate change-related challenges. Producing the kilometre- and sub-daily-scale climate data needed by hydrologists through continuous simulations is generally computationally infeasible. To circumvent this hurdle, we adopt a two-pronged approach involving (1) selective dynamical downscaling and (2) conditional stochastic weather generators, with the former presented here. We take an event-based approach to downscaling in order to achieve the kilometre-scale input needed by hydrological modellers. Computational expenses are minimized by identifying extremal weather patterns for each BINGO research site in lower-resolution simulations and then only downscaling to the kilometre-scale (convection permitting) those events during which such patterns occur. Here we (1) outline the methodology behind the selection of the events, and (2) compare the modelled precipitation distribution and variability (preconditioned on the extremal weather patterns) with that found in observations.

  14. Watershed Scale Analysis of Groundwater Surface Water Interactions and Its Application to Conjunctive Management under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stresses over the US Sunbelt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Seung Beom

    Although water is one of the most essential natural resources, human activities have been exerting pressure on water resources. In order to reduce these stresses on water resources, two key issues threatening water resources sustainability - interaction between surface water and groundwater resources and groundwater withdrawal impacts of streamflow depletion - were investigated in this study. First, a systematic decomposition procedure was proposed for quantifying the errors arising from various sources in the model chain in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes using near-term climate change projections. Apart from the unexplained changes by GCMs, the process of customizing GCM projections to watershed scale through a model chain - spatial downscaling, temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model - also introduces errors, thereby limiting the ability to explain the observed changes in hydrologic variability. Towards this, we first propose metrics for quantifying the errors arising from different steps in the model chain in explaining the observed changes in hydrologic variables (streamflow, groundwater). The proposed metrics are then evaluated using a detailed retrospective analyses in projecting the changes in streamflow and groundwater attributes in four target basins that span across a diverse hydroclimatic regimes over the US Sunbelt. Our analyses focused on quantifying the dominant sources of errors in projecting the changes in eight hydrologic variables - mean and variability of seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 3-day peak seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 7-day low seasonal streamflow and mean and standard deviation of groundwater depth - over four target basins using an Penn state Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) between the period 1956-1980 and 1981-2005. Retrospective analyses show that small/humid (large/arid) basins show increased (reduced) uncertainty in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes. Further

  15. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  16. Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

  17. Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liersch

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa. WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999 in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift

  18. Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liersch, Stefan; Tecklenburg, Julia; Rust, Henning; Dobler, Andreas; Fischer, Madlen; Kruschke, Tim; Koch, Hagen; Fokko Hattermann, Fred

    2018-04-01

    Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970-1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal

  19. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  20. Constraining the JULES land-surface model for different land-use types using citizen-science generated hydrological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, H. K.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.

    2017-12-01

    Community land surface models such as JULES are increasingly used for hydrological assessment because of their state-of-the-art representation of land-surface processes. However, a major weakness of JULES and other land surface models is the limited number of land surface parameterizations that is available. Therefore, this study explores the use of data from a network of catchments under homogeneous land-use to generate parameter "libraries" to extent the land surface parameterizations of JULES. The network (called iMHEA) is part of a grassroots initiative to characterise the hydrological response of different Andean ecosystems, and collects data on streamflow, precipitation, and several weather variables at a high temporal resolution. The tropical Andes are a useful case study because of the complexity of meteorological and geographical conditions combined with extremely heterogeneous land-use that result in a wide range of hydrological responses. We then calibrated JULES for each land-use represented in the iMHEA dataset. For the individual land-use types, the results show improved simulations of streamflow when using the calibrated parameters with respect to default values. In particular, the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows can be improved. But also, on a regional scale, hydrological modelling was greatly benefitted from constraining parameters using such distributed citizen-science generated streamflow data. This study demonstrates the modelling and prediction on regional hydrology by integrating citizen science and land surface model. In the context of hydrological study, the limitation of data scarcity could be solved indeed by using this framework. Improved predictions of such impacts could be leveraged by catchment managers to guide watershed interventions, to evaluate their effectiveness, and to minimize risks.

  1. Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

  2. Lags in hydrologic recovery following an extreme drought: Assessing the roles of climate and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Donohue, Randall J.; Zhang, Yongqiang; Roderick, Michael L.; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Junlong

    2017-06-01

    Drought, generally characterized by below-average water supply, propagates through the hydrologic system with consequent ecological and societal impacts. Compared with other drought aspects, the recovery of drought especially in the hydrological components, which directly relates to the recovery of water resources for agricultural, ecological and human needs, is less-understood. Here, taking the Millennium drought in southeast Australia (˜1997-2009) as an illustrating case, we comprehensively examined multiple aspects of the meteorological (i.e., precipitation) and hydrological (i.e., streamflow and base flow) droughts across 130 unimpaired catchments using long-term hydro-meteorological observations. Results show that the duration and intensity of the meteorological drought are both lengthened and amplified in the hydrological drought, suggesting a nonstationarity in the rainfall-runoff relationship during a prolonged drought. Additionally, we find a time lag commonly exists between the end of the meteorological droughts and the end of the hydrological drought, with the recovery of base flow showing a longer lag than the recovery of streamflow. The recovery rate of precipitation after drought was found to be the dominant factor that controls the recovery of hydrological droughts while catchment landscape (i.e., valley bottom flatness) plays an important but secondary role in controlling the lags in the hydrological recovery. Other hydro-climatic factors and catchment properties appear to have only minor influences governing hydrological drought recovery. Our findings highlight a delayed response in the terrestrial components of the hydrological cycle to precipitation after prolonged drought, and provide valuable scientific guidance to water resources management and water security assessment in regions facing future droughts.

  3. Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsson, Jonas; Yang, Wei; Graham, L. Phil; Rosberg, Joergen; Andreasson, Johan (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: jonas.olsson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    Lake Vaenern and River Goeta aelv in southern Sweden constitute a large and complex hydrological system that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, an ensemble of 12 regional climate projections is used to simulate the inflow to Lake Vaenern by the HBV hydrological model. By using distribution based scaling of the climate model output, all projections can accurately reproduce the annual cycle of mean monthly inflows for the period 1961-1990 as simulated using HBV with observed temperature and precipitation ('HBVobs'). Significant changes towards higher winter inflow and a reduced spring flood were found when comparing the period 1991-2008 to 1961-1990 in the HBVobs simulations and the ability of the regional projections to reproduce these changes varied. The main uncertainties in the projections for 1991-2008 were found to originate from the global climate model used, including its initialization, and in one case, the emissions scenario, whereas the regional climate model used and its resolution showed a smaller influence. The projections that most accurately reproduce the recent change suggest that the current trends in the winter and spring inflows will continue over the period 2009-2030

  4. USGS Geospatial Fabric and Geo Data Portal for Continental Scale Hydrology Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, K. M.; Newman, A. J.; Blodgett, D. L.; Viger, R.; Hay, L.; Clark, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    This presentation describes use of United States Geological Survey (USGS) data products and server-based resources for continental-scale hydrologic simulations. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group provides a consistent national geospatial fabric built on NHDPlus. They have defined more than 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRUs) over the continental United States based on points of interest (POIs) and split into left and right bank based on the corresponding stream segment. Geophysical attributes are calculated for each HRU that can be used to define parameters in hydrologic and land-surface models. The Geo Data Portal (GDP) project at the USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) provides access to downscaled climate datasets and processing services via web-interface and python modules for creating forcing datasets for any polygon (such as an HRU). These resources greatly reduce the labor required for creating model-ready data in-house, contributing to efficient and effective modeling applications. We will present an application of this USGS cyber-infrastructure for assessments of impacts of climate change on hydrology over the continental United States.

  5. Improving regional climate and hydrological forecasting following the record setting flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Seglenieks, F.; Bruxer, J.; Fortin, V.; Noel, J.

    2017-12-01

    In the spring of 2017, water levels across Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River exceeded record high levels, leading to widespread flooding, damage to property, and controversy over regional dam operating protocols. Only a few years earlier, water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron (upstream of Lake Ontario) had dropped to record low levels leading to speculation that either anthropogenic controls or climate change were leading to chronic water loss from the Great Lakes. The contrast between low water level conditions across Earth's largest lake system from the late 1990s through 2013, and the rapid rise prior to the flooding in early 2017, underscores the challenges of quantifying and forecasting hydrologic impacts of rising regional air and water temperatures (and associated changes in lake evaporation) and persistent increases in long-term precipitation. Here, we assess the hydrologic conditions leading to the recent record flooding across the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system, with a particular emphasis on understanding the extent to which those conditions were consistent with observed and anticipated changes in historical and future climate, and the extent to which those conditions could have been anticipated through improvements in seasonal climate outlooks and hydrological forecasts.

  6. On the utilization of hydrological modelling for road drainage design under climate and land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Briel, Annemarie; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

    2014-03-15

    Road drainage structures are often designed using methods that do not consider process-based representations of a landscape's hydrological response. This may create inadequately sized structures as coupled land cover and climate changes can lead to an amplified hydrological response. This study aims to quantify potential increases of runoff in response to future extreme rain events in a 61 km(2) catchment (40% forested) in southwest Sweden using a physically-based hydrological modelling approach. We simulate peak discharge and water level (stage) at two types of pipe bridges and one culvert, both of which are commonly used at Swedish road/stream intersections, under combined forest clear-cutting and future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The frequency of changes in peak flow and water level varies with time (seasonality) and storm size. These changes indicate that the magnitude of peak flow and the runoff response are highly correlated to season rather than storm size. In all scenarios considered, the dimensions of the current culvert are insufficient to handle the increase in water level estimated using a physically-based modelling approach. It also appears that the water level at the pipe bridges changes differently depending on the size and timing of the storm events. The findings of the present study and the approach put forward should be considered when planning investigations on and maintenance for areas at risk of high water flows. In addition, the research highlights the utility of physically-based hydrological models to identify the appropriateness of road drainage structure dimensioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masood, M.; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

    2014-06-01

    The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979-2003), near-future (2015-2039) and far-future (2075-2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November-April) than that in wet season (May-October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological

  8. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective ? a review

    OpenAIRE

    Overgaard , J.; Rosbjerg , D.; Butts , M. B.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches, because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opport...

  9. HESS Opinions: "Climate, hydrology, energy, water: recognizing uncertainty and seeking sustainability"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Karavokiros

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 1990 extensive funds have been spent on research in climate change. Although Earth Sciences, including climatology and hydrology, have benefited significantly, progress has proved incommensurate with the effort and funds, perhaps because these disciplines were perceived as "tools" subservient to the needs of the climate change enterprise rather than autonomous sciences. At the same time, research was misleadingly focused more on the "symptom", i.e. the emission of greenhouse gases, than on the "illness", i.e. the unsustainability of fossil fuel-based energy production. Unless energy saving and use of renewable resources become the norm, there is a real risk of severe socioeconomic crisis in the not-too-distant future. A framework for drastic paradigm change is needed, in which water plays a central role, due to its unique link to all forms of renewable energy, from production (hydro and wave power to storage (for time-varying wind and solar sources, to biofuel production (irrigation. The extended role of water should be considered in parallel to its other uses, domestic, agricultural and industrial. Hydrology, the science of water on Earth, must move towards this new paradigm by radically rethinking its fundamentals, which are unjustifiably trapped in the 19th-century myths of deterministic theories and the zeal to eliminate uncertainty. Guidance is offered by modern statistical and quantum physics, which reveal the intrinsic character of uncertainty/entropy in nature, thus advancing towards a new understanding and modelling of physical processes, which is central to the effective use of renewable energy and water resources.

  10. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  11. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  12. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  13. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Null

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  14. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  15. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Description of climate, surface hydrology, and near-surface hydrogeology. Preliminary site description. Forsmark area - version 1.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Per-Olof; Werner, Kent; Bosson, Emma; Berglund, Sten; Juston, John

    2005-06-01

    The present report is a background report describing the meteorological conditions and the modelling of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology in support of the Forsmark version 1.2 SDM based on the data available in the Forsmark 1.2 ''data freeze'' (July 31, 2004). The area covered in the conceptual and descriptive modelling is characterised by a low relief and a small-scale topography. Almost the whole area is located below 20 m a s l (metres above sea level). The corrected mean annual precipitation is 600-650 mm and the mean annual evapotranspiration can be estimated to a little more than 400 mm, leaving approximately 200 mm x year-1 for runoff. Till is the dominating Quaternary deposit covering approximately 75% of the area. In most of the area, the till is sandy. Bedrock outcrops are frequent but cover only approximately 5% of the area. Direct groundwater recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of groundwater recharge. The small-scale topography implies that many local, shallow groundwater flow systems are formed in the Quaternary deposits, overlaying more large-scale flow systems associated with groundwater flows at greater depths. Groundwater level time series from wells in till and bedrock within the same areas show a considerably higher groundwater level in the till than in the bedrock. The sediment stratigraphy of lakes and wetlands is crucial for their function as discharge areas for groundwater. Comparisons between measured lake water levels and groundwater levels below and around lakes indicate that the lakes in some cases may act as sources of groundwater recharge. Specifically, observations from Lake Bolundsfjaerden and Lake Eckarfjaerden show that such conditions were at hand during the dry summer of 2003. However, whether the observed water level relations correspond to significant water fluxes depends also on the hydrogeological properties of the lake sediments and the underlying Quaternary deposits. ''Old'' water with high

  17. Modeling of hydrological processes in arid agricultural regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang LI,Xiaomin MAO,Shaozhong KANG,David A. BARRY

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding of hydrological processes, including consideration of interactions between vegetation growth and water transfer in the root zone, underpins efficient use of water resources in arid-zone agriculture. Water transfers take place in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and include groundwater dynamics, unsaturated zone flow, evaporation/transpiration from vegetated/bare soil and surface water, agricultural canal/surface water flow and seepage, and well pumping. Models can be categorized into three classes: (1 regional distributed hydrological models with various land uses, (2 groundwater-soil-plant-atmosphere continuum models that neglect lateral water fluxes, and (3 coupled models with groundwater flow and unsaturated zone water dynamics. This review highlights, in addition, future research challenges in modeling arid-zone agricultural systems, e.g., to effectively assimilate data from remote sensing, and to fully reflect climate change effects at various model scales.

  18. Identification of temporal patterns of long-term hydrological signals in Lower Mississippi River Basin using wavelet analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying Ouyang

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of surface hydrological characteristics in watershed ecosystems are essential to climate change assessment, water supply planning, water quality protection, ecological restoration, and water resources management.

  19. Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.

    2017-12-01

    The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

  20. Modelling the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality in a mediterranean limno-reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina-Navarro, Euginio; Trolle, Dennis; Martinez-Pérez, Silvia

    Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. All the scenarios predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions...

  1. Assessment of climate and land use change impacts on surface water runoff and connectivity in a continuous permafrost catchment on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaedeke, A.; Arp, C. D.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Daanen, R. P.; Whitman, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    A changing climate is leading to rapid transformations of hydrological processes in low-gradient Arctic terrestrial ecosystems which are dominated by lakes and ponds, wetlands, polygonised tundra, and connecting stream and river networks. The aim of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water availability and connectivity by utilizing the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Crea Creek Watershed (30 km2), which is located in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) was chosen as study area because of its permafrost landforms (bedfast and floating ice lakes, high and low centered polygons), existing observational data (discharge, snow depth, and meteorological variables since 2009), and resource management issues related to permafrost degradation and aquatic habitat dynamics. Foremost of concern is oil development scheduled to begin starting in 2017 with the construction of a permanent road and drilling pad directly within the Crea Watershed. An interdisciplinary team consisting of scientists and regional stakeholders defined the following scenarios to be simulated using WaSiM: (1) industrial development (impact of water removal from lakes (winter) for ice road construction on downstream (summer) runoff), (2) permanent road construction to allow oil companies access to develop and extract petroleum, and (3) potential modes of climate change including warmer, snowier winters and prolonged drought during summers. Downscaled meteorological output from the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) will be used as the forcing for analysis of climate scenarios alone and for assessment of land-use responses under varying climate scenarios. Our results will provide regional stakeholders with information on the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water connectivity that affects aquatic habitat, as well as lake hydrologic interactions with permafrost. These finding

  2. Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

  3. Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke A.; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Clark, Martyn P.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.

    2018-03-01

    Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning.

  4. Quantifying watershed surface depression storage: determination and application in a hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph K. O. Amoah; Devendra M. Amatya; Soronnadi. Nnaji

    2012-01-01

    Hydrologic models often require correct estimates of surface macro-depressional storage to accurately simulate rainfall–runoff processes. Traditionally, depression storage is determined through model calibration or lumped with soil storage components or on an ad hoc basis. This paper investigates a holistic approach for estimating surface depressional storage capacity...

  5. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability have significant influences on hydrological cycles and the availability of water in the Horn of Africa. Projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs in association with high (A2 and low (B1 emission scenarios were adopted in this study from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES for the period 2020 - 2039 to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Gilgel Abbay and Gumara watershed hydrology, the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were screened in accordance with baseline climate statistics of study areas. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive the General Water Loading Function (GWLF hydrological model for simulating runoffs. Projected changes in temperature differences and precipitation ratios relative to the baseline were analyzed to explain the variations in evapotranspiration and the influences on runoff. Despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among GCMs, increasing runoff in both wet and dry seasons was observed for both watersheds, attributable mainly to the increase in precipitation projected by most GCMs. In contrast to the great increases in runoff, variations in evapotranspiration are less significant. The projected runoff in both watersheds implies increased potential for promoting agricultural irrigation in the dry season. Furthermore, it would allow greater inflow to Lake Tana, the largest contributor to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Therefore, concerned local, state, and federal government organizations shall be prepared to harness opportunities from the projected increase in runoff.

  7. Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

  8. Assessing River Low-Flow Uncertainties Related to Hydrological Model Calibration and Structure under Climate Change Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Trudel

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.

  9. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  10. Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-06-01

    Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets

  11. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  12. Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Upper Basin of the Yellow River Basin of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To reveal the revolution law of hydrologic extremes in the next 50 years and analyze the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes, the following main works were carried on: firstly, the long duration (15 d, 30 d, and 60 d rainfall extremes according to observed time-series and forecast time-series by dynamical climate model product (BCC-CSM-1.1 were deduced, respectively, on the basis that the quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on rainfall extremes was conducted; secondly, the SWAT model was used to deduce design flood with the input of design rainfall for the next 50 years. On this basis, quantitative estimation of the impact of climate change on long duration flood volume extremes was conducted. It indicates that (1 the value of long duration rainfall extremes for given probabilities (1%, 2%, 5%, and 10% of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years and (2 long duration flood volume extremes of given probabilities of the Tangnaihai basin will rise with slight increasing rate from 1% to 6% in the next 50 years. The conclusions may provide technical supports for basin level planning of flood control and hydropower production.

  13. Tracking climate change in oligotrophic mountain lakes: Recent hydrology and productivity synergies in Lago de Sanabria (NW Iberian Peninsula).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Recio, Clemente; Vega, José Carlos; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-07-15

    Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009-2011. δ 18 O lakewater and δD lakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ 13 C POM and δ 13 C DIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl-a, and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ 13 C POM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope

  14. Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

  15. The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaard, René R.; van der Perk, Marcel|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074715437; van der Grift, Bas|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/373433484; de Nijs, Ton C M; Bierkens, Marc F P|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/125022794

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the

  16. Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2012-01-01

    Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

  17. Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine

  18. Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

    1988-01-01

    A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

  19. Modelling Interactions between Land Use, Climate, and Hydrology along with Stakeholders’ Negotiation for Water Resources Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the main functionalities of an integrated framework to model the interactions between land use, climate, and hydrology along with stakeholders’ negotiation. Its novelty lies in the combination of individual-based and spatially distributed models within the Socio-Hydrology paradigm to capture the complexity and uncertainty inherent to these systems. It encompasses a land-use/land-cover cellular automata model, an agent-based model used for automated stakeholders’ negotiation, and the hydrological MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, which are linked and can be accessed through a web-based interface. It enables users to run simulations to explore a wide range of scenarios related to land development and water resource management while considering the reciprocal influence of human and natural systems. This framework was developed with the involvement of key stakeholders from the initial design stage to the final demonstration and validation.

  20. Modeling the Climate and Hydrological Controls of the Expansion of an Invasive Grass Over Southern Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has an effect on the resilience of ecosystems and the occurrence of ecological perturbations (e.g. spread of invasive species, wildfires). Changes in vegetation in turn can interrupt regional scale climate patterns and alter the spatial and temporal propagation of ecological disturbances. Understanding the controls of vegetation change are essential for predicting future changes, and for setting conservation and restoration targets. Vegetation change in transition zones between ecological regions is a significant indicator of future shifts in the composition of neighboring plant communities. The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed is in a grassland-shrubland transition zone between the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Desert in Southern Arizona. During the past decade, at some sites the cover of the invasive Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) drastically increased and the abundance of native vegetation decreased, causing a major decline in biodiversity. Focusing on a catchment scale (Kendall Site), we used an individual based vegetation model (ECOTONE) and a coupled vegetation-3D surface/subsurface hydrology model (ECOTONE-CATHY) to simulate vegetation change. We set up the models with soil and climatological data (NLDAS and AmeriFlux), incorporated initial conditions of species and biomass distribution and species parameters for the site. Using ECOTONE we tested our hypothesis that a combination of dry years and subsequent wet period caused Lehmann lovegass to have advantage over the natives. In ECOTONE species composition and species distribution of plant communities arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with species specific traits through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen) and their interaction with the environment (precipitation and temperature). Our results indicate that the competitive advantage of Lehmann lovegrass stems from its ability to withstand dryer conditions during establishment and due to

  1. Investigating impacts of natural and human-induced environmental changes on hydrological processes and flood hazards using a GIS-based hydrological/hydraulic model and remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei

    Natural and human-induced environmental changes have been altering the earth's surface and hydrological processes, and thus directly contribute to the severity of flood hazards. To understand these changes and their impacts, this research developed a GIS-based hydrological and hydraulic modeling system, which incorporates state-of-the-art remote sensing data to simulate flood under various scenarios. The conceptual framework and technical issues of incorporating multi-scale remote sensing data have been addressed. This research develops an object-oriented hydrological modeling framework. Compared with traditional lumped or cell-based distributed hydrological modeling frameworks, the object-oriented framework allows basic spatial hydrologic units to have various size and irregular shape. This framework is capable of assimilating various GIS and remotely-sensed data with different spatial resolutions. It ensures the computational efficiency, while preserving sufficient spatial details of input data and model outputs. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of high resolution LIDAR DEM with traditional USGS 30m resolution DEM suggests that the use of LIDAR DEMs can greatly reduce uncertainty in calibration of flow parameters in the hydrologic model and hence increase the reliability of modeling results. In addition, subtle topographic features and hydrologic objects like surface depressions and detention basins can be extracted from the high resolution LiDAR DEMs. An innovative algorithm has been developed to efficiently delineate surface depressions and detention basins from LiDAR DEMs. Using a time series of Landsat images, a retrospective analysis of surface imperviousness has been conducted to assess the hydrologic impact of urbanization. The analysis reveals that with rapid urbanization the impervious surface has been increased from 10.1% to 38.4% for the case study area during 1974--2002. As a result, the peak flow for a 100-year flood event has increased by 20% and

  2. Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin - Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro Neto, A.; Scott, C. A.; Lima, E. A.; Montenegro, S. M. G. L.; Cirilo, J. A.

    2014-09-01

    Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change, especially in the arid and semiarid tropics. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the Capibaribe River basin (CRB). The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-to-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now larger and more spatially concentrated, which increases water-scarcity effects. Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 26.0% translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0%. We used simulations from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al., 2012). We considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand. Several adaptive responses are considered, including water-loss reductions, wastewater collection and reuse, and rainwater collection cisterns, which together have potential to reduce future water demand by 23.0%. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The simulations showed that the measures proposed and the water from interbasin transfer project of the São Francisco River had a positive

  3. Socio-hydrological model to inform community adaptation to seasonal drought and climate variability in rural agricultural watersheds in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hund, S. V.; Johnson, M. S.; Morillas, L.; McDaniels, T.; Romero Valpreda, J.; Allen, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate variability and seasonal droughts associated with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and increasing water demand due to growing population are leading to serious water conflicts in the wet-dry tropics of Central America. Integrated methods are needed to understand the linkages of these complex socio-hydrological systems and design reliable adaption strategies in a period of global change. With increasing pressure on surface and groundwater resources during long annual dry seasons, rural agricultural communities suffer water shortages, especially in those years preceded by wet seasons with lower rainfall (and reduced groundwater recharge). To support community resilience to rainfall variability and droughts, we conducted a combination of fieldwork (development of hydrologic monitoring system and local stakeholder cooperation), and hydrological modeling for two watersheds with a shared aquifer (Potrero and Caimital) in Northwestern Costa Rica. The agricultural land use of the region and the many rural villages that draw directly on their local water resource and live in close interaction with their watersheds necessitated a socio-hydrological systems approach. In this talk we present results from our hydrologic modeling, for which we used the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model and locally recorded data. With the integrated water supply and demand features of the WEAP model, we were able to synthesize both the hydrological system and the societal system (specifically, household and agricultural water use), and show feedbacks such as that water use tends to increase during the dry season, likely exacerbating water shortages issues. Further, applying a range of ENSO related rainfall scenarios to the model demonstrated that community adaptation will become in particular important in response to lower water availability in future El Niño years. In collaboration with local stakeholders, we identified a set of feasible adaptation strategies to seasonal

  4. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  5. Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; McGrath, D.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution regional-scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070-2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA-wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain-on-snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

  6. Impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and water resources management of the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laxmi Prasad Devkota

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The study found that climate change does not pose major threat on average water availability. However, temporal flow variations are expected to increase in the future. The magnitude of projected flow for given return periods, however, strongly depends on the climate model run considered. The ECHAM05 results show higher flow changes than those estimated from the HADCM3 outputs. A relation was derived to estimate projected flood flow as a function of return period and flow estimated from historical series. Amidst the uncertainties, these predictions provide reasonable insight for re-consideration of design standards or design values of hydraulic structures under climate change.

  7. Applying Topographic Classification, Based on the Hydrological Process, to Design Habitat Linkages for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwon Mo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of biodiversity surrogates has been discussed in the context of designing habitat linkages to support the migration of species affected by climate change. Topography has been proposed as a useful surrogate in the coarse-filter approach, as the hydrological process caused by topography such as erosion and accumulation is the basis of ecological processes. However, some studies that have designed topographic linkages as habitat linkages, so far have focused much on the shape of the topography (morphometric topographic classification with little emphasis on the hydrological processes (generic topographic classification to find such topographic linkages. We aimed to understand whether generic classification was valid for designing these linkages. First, we evaluated whether topographic classification is more appropriate for describing actual (coniferous and deciduous and potential (mammals and amphibians habitat distributions. Second, we analyzed the difference in the linkages between the morphometric and generic topographic classifications. The results showed that the generic classification represented the actual distribution of the trees, but neither the morphometric nor the generic classification could represent the potential animal distributions adequately. Our study demonstrated that the topographic classes, according to the generic classification, were arranged successively according to the flow of water, nutrients, and sediment; therefore, it would be advantageous to secure linkages with a width of 1 km or more. In addition, the edge effect would be smaller than with the morphometric classification. Accordingly, we suggest that topographic characteristics, based on the hydrological process, are required to design topographic linkages for climate change.

  8. EDITORIAL: The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Liepert, Beate

    2010-06-01

    Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009). The link between radiation balance and hydrological cycle Globally, precipitation can be approximated by surface evaporation, since the variability of the atmospheric moisture storage is negligible. This is the case because the fluxes are an order of magnitude larger than the atmospheric storage (423 x 1012 m3 year-1 versus 13 x 1012 m3 according to Baumgartner and Reichel (1975)), the latter being determined by temperature (Clausius-Clapeyron). Hence the residence time of evaporated water in the atmosphere is not more than a few days, before it condenses and falls back to Earth in the form of precipitation. Any change in the globally averaged surface evaporation therefore implies an equivalent change in precipitation, and thus in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The process of evaporation requires energy, which it obtains from the surface radiation balance (also known as surface net radiation), composed of the

  9. Long-Term Hydrologic Monitoring Program, Amchitka Island, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of the Long-Term Hydrologic Monitoring Program for Amchitka Island, Alaska, is to obtain data that will assure the public safety, inform the public, the news media, and the scientific community relative to radiological contamination, and to document compliance with federal, state, and local antipollution requirements. Amchitka's geographical setting, climate, geology, hydrology, and ecology are described. Site history including event information for LONG SHOT in 1965, MILROW in 1969, and CANNIKIN in 1971 is described. Event related contamination has been observed only at the LONG SHOT site. At this site, tritium in concentrations below the drinking water standards has been observed in mud pits and wells in the area adjacent to surface ground zero. The Long-Term Hydrologic Monitoring Program for Amchitka is described. No radioactive venting, significant radioactive leakage, or bioenvironmental damage resulted from any of the nuclear tests on Amchitka

  10. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the French SIM hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, C.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Wagner, W.

    2011-06-01

    The impact of assimilating near-surface soil moisture into the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydrological model over France is examined. Specifically, the root-zone soil moisture in the ISBA land surface model is constrained over three and a half years, by assimilating the ASCAT-derived surface degree of saturation product, using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter. In this experiment ISBA is forced with the near-real time SAFRAN analysis, which analyses the variables required to force ISBA from relevant observations available before the real time data cut-off. The assimilation results are tested against ISBA forecasts generated with a higher quality delayed cut-off SAFRAN analysis. Ideally, assimilating the ASCAT data will constrain the ISBA surface state to correct for errors in the near-real time SAFRAN forcing, the most significant of which was a substantial dry bias caused by a dry precipitation bias. The assimilation successfully reduced the mean root-zone soil moisture bias, relative to the delayed cut-off forecasts, by close to 50 % of the open-loop value. The improved soil moisture in the model then led to significant improvements in the forecast hydrological cycle, reducing the drainage, runoff, and evapotranspiration biases (by 17 %, 11 %, and 70 %, respectively). When coupled to the MODCOU hydrogeological model, the ASCAT assimilation also led to improved streamflow forecasts, increasing the mean discharge ratio, relative to the delayed cut off forecasts, from 0.68 to 0.76. These results demonstrate that assimilating near-surface soil moisture observations can effectively constrain the SIM model hydrology, while also confirming the accuracy of the ASCAT surface degree of saturation product. This latter point highlights how assimilation experiments can contribute towards the difficult issue of validating remotely sensed land surface observations over large spatial scales.

  11. Making sense of Big Data in Hydrology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, N.; Blodgett, D. L.; Briar, D.

    2013-12-01

    At the same time that "big data" promises to help provide new insights for understanding earth processes, budget challenges require we more effectively use data collected by organizations other than our own. Answering societally relevant questions related to water requires that we consider all natural and anthropogenic aspects of the hydrologic cycle. How do we integrate across organizations and across water cycle components to satisfy these challenges and expectations? We now need to move beyond metadata that describe individual datasets to an ability to interrogate integrated collections of observations. Furthermore, we need to be able to query across obvious (yet elusive) dimensions including hydrologic context and position while filtering for data of a known quality that meets our purpose. In addition, we need to traverse the climate/geography interface, efficiently attributing a climate signal to watersheds. We know that water flows downhill and that after heavy rain, streams flood. But we cannot systematically query for observations made during a flashy summer storm-related flood upstream from notable points on a river or stream such as water treatment intakes. USGS has long committed to providing real-time access to surface and groundwater monitoring networks across the United States. Of the over 45 million requests made for these data in a recent month, nearly a quarter were made via mobile devices. An additional 19.8 million requests were made to web services that provide content according to community and international data standards -- presumably to support other applications and mash ups. This presentation will describe ongoing efforts at the USGS on how we are working with the earth sciences and water resource management communities to develop and implement new techniques for both delivering and consuming hydrologic data. Our strategy has been an "all-of-the-above" approach whereby we recognize and work to advance best practices in various communities

  12. Spatial planning for adapting to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walsum, van P.E.V.; Runhaar, J.; Helming, J.F.M.

    2005-01-01

    During the past decades human interference in regional hydrologic systems has intensified. These systems act as an integrating medium. They link climate, human activities and ecologic processes through groundwater and surface water interactions. For simulating these linkages an integrated regional

  13. Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

  14. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Éric; Gailhard, Joël

    2018-05-01

    This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.

  15. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  16. Surface mass redistribution inversion from global GPS deformation and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kusche, J.; Schrama, E.J.O.

    2005-01-01

    Monitoring hydrological redistributions through their integrated gravitational effect is the primary aim of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Time?variable gravity data from GRACE can be uniquely inverted to hydrology, since mass transfers located at or near the Earth's

  17. Vegetation Cover Dynamics and Resilience to Climatic and Hydrological Disturbances in Seasonal Floodplain: The Effects of Hydrological Connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linlu Shi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Floodplain wetlands are valuable ecosystems for maintaining biodiversity, but are vulnerable to hydrological modification and climatic extremes. The floodplain wetlands in the middle Yangtze region are biodiversity hotspots, particularly important for wintering migratory waterbirds. In recent years, extremely low winter water level events frequently occurred in the middle Yangtze River. The hydrological droughts greatly impacted the development and distribution of the wet meadows, one of the most important ecological components in the floodplains, which is vital for the survival of many migratory waterbirds wintering in the Yangtze region. To effectively manage the wet meadows, it is critical to pinpoint the drivers for their deterioration. In this study, we assessed the effects of hydrological connectivity on the ecological stability of wet meadow in Poyang Lake for the period of 2000 to 2016. We used the time series of MODIS EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index as a proxy for productivity to infer the ecological stability of wet meadows in terms of resistance and resilience. Our results showed that (1 the wet meadows developed in freely connected lakes had significantly higher resilience; (2 wet meadows colonizing controlled lakes had higher resistance to water level anomalies; (3 there was no difference in the resistance to rainfall anomaly between the two types of lakes; (4 the wet meadow in freely connected lakes might approach a tipping point and a regime shift might be imminent. Our findings suggest that adaptive management at regional- (i.e., operation of Three Gorges Dam and site-scale (e.g., regulating sand mining are needed to safeguard the long-term ecological stability of the system, which in term has strong implications for local, regional and global biodiversity conservation.

  18. Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management

  19. Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Saez, Javier; Mande, Theophile; Ceperley, Natalie; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2016-06-07

    We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

  20. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Per-Olof

    2008-12-01

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to the bedrock

  1. Description of surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM. Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansson, Per-Olof (Artesia Grundvattenkonsult AB, Taeby (Sweden))

    2008-12-15

    This report describes the modelling of the surface hydrology and near-surface hydrogeology that was performed for the final site descriptive model of Forsmark produced in the site investigation stage, SDM-Site Forsmark. The comprehensive investigation and monitoring programme forms a strong basis for the developed conceptual and descriptive model of the hydrological and near-surface hydrological system of the site investigation area. However, there are some remaining uncertainties regarding the interaction of deep and near-surface groundwater and surface water of importance for the understanding of the system: The groundwaters in till below Lake Eckarfjaerden, Lake Gaellbotraesket, Lake Fiskarfjaerden and Lake Bolundsfjaerden have high salinities. The hydrological and hydrochemical interpretations indicate that these waters are relict waters of mainly marine origin. From the perspective of the overall water balance, the water below the central parts of the lakes can be considered as stagnant. However, according to the hydrochemical interpretation, these waters also contain weak signatures of deep saline water. Rough chloride budget calculations for the Gaellbotraesket depression also raise the question of a possible upward flow of deep groundwater. No absolute conclusion can be drawn from the existing data analyses regarding the key question of whether there is a small ongoing upward flow of deep saline water. However, Lake Bolundsfjaerden is an exception where the clear downward flow gradient from the till to the bedrock excludes the possibility of an active deep saline source. The available data indicate that there are no discharge areas for flow systems involving deep bedrock groundwater in the northern part of the tectonic lens, where the repository is planned to be located (the so-called 'target area'). However, it can not be excluded that such discharge areas exist. Data indicate that the prevailing downward vertical flow gradients from the QD to

  2. Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

    2015-01-01

    We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

  3. Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

    2016-02-01

    Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  5. Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

  6. Climate Change and Hydrology of a Snow-fed Watershed in Western Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, V. P.; Bharati, L.; Dhaubanjar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Many river basins across the globe are experiencing varying degrees of impacts from climate change. Snow-fed watersheds are expected to be affected even more. Chamelia, a tributary of Mahakali river basin, is a snow-fed river in the western Nepal with catchment area of 1,603 km2above the confluence with Mahakali River. Forest cover (40%) and rainfed agriculture (28%) covers more than two-third of the watershed. Topography varies from 505 to 7,090 m. According to the data from Department of Electricity Development (DoED) this watershed contains 14 licensed hydropower projects of varying capacities. Climate change may affect various aspects of the hydropower project, all of which are hinged around hydrology. This study simulated hydrological response of Chamelia watershed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as an input for a hydro-economic model to analyze the water-energy-food nexus. The model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2007 and validated for 2008-2013 and then used to examine the streamflow response to climate change. Future climates for near-future (2020-2045), mid-future (2046-2070) and far-future (2071-2095) were considered based on CSIRO-CCAM Regional Circulation Model (RCM), derived from ACCESS1, downloaded from South Asia Cordex for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and then bias corrected using linear scaling method. Results, based on climate date at Station-103 showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 1.2°C (1.4°C), 1.5°C (2.8°C), and 2.3°C (2.6°C), respectively, from the baseline. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods, in the same order, are projected to increase by 1.1°C (1.5°C), 2.1°C (3.6°C), and 2.5°C (4.7°C), respectively, from the baseline. Precipitation in the other hand under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10.2% (10.4%), 7.6% (13.6%), and 3.1% (12

  7. Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yuan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010 of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010 hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly

  8. An Integrative Approach to Understand the Climatic-Hydrological Process: A Case Study of Yarkand River, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the Yarkand River as an example, this paper conducted an integrative approach combining the Durbin-Watson statistic test (DWST, multiple linear regression (MLR, wavelet analysis (WA, coefficient of determination (CD, and Akaike information criterion (AIC to analyze the climatic-hydrological process of inland river, Northwest China from a multitime scale perspective. The main findings are as follows. (1 The hydrologic and climatic variables, that is, annual runoff (AR, annual average temperature, (AAT and annual precipitation (AP, are stochastic and, no significant autocorrelation. (2 The variation patterns of runoff, temperature, and precipitation were scale dependent in time. AR, AAT, and AP basically present linear trends at 16-year and 32-year scales, but they show nonlinear fluctuations at 2-year and 4-year scales. (3 The relationship between AR with AAT and AP was simulated by the multiple linear regression equation (MLRE based on wavelet analysis at each time scale. But the simulated effect at a larger time scale is better than that at a smaller time scale.

  9. Isotopes as validation tools for predictions of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on climate and regional hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Chambers, S.; McGuffie, K.

    2002-01-01

    Isotopic analysis and modelling of the Amazon Basin have both been reported for about thirty years. Isotopic data have been used to explain important characteristics of Amazonian hydrologic cycling by means of simple models. To date there has been no attempt to use isotopic data to evaluate global climate models employed to predict the possible impacts of Amazonian deforestation. This paper reviews the history of isotopic analysis and simulations of deforestation in the Amazon and initiates isotopic evaluation of GCMs. It is shown that one widely reported simulation set gives seasonal transpiration and re-evaporated canopy interception budgets different from those derived from isotopic analysis. It is found that temporal changes (1965 to 1990) in wet season deuterium excess differences between Belem and Manaus are consistent with GCM results only if there has been a relative increase in evaporation from non-fractionating water sources over this period. We propose synergistic future interactions among the climate/hydrological modelling and isotopic analysis communities in order to improve confidence in simulations of Amazonian deforestation. (author)

  10. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  11. Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

  12. Assessing the influence of groundwater and land surface scheme in the modelling of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks over the FIFE area in Kansas, USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Højmark Rasmussen, Søren; Drews, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The land surface-atmosphere interaction is described differently in large scale surface schemes of regional climate models and small scale spatially distributed hydrological models. In particular, the hydrological models include the influence of shallow groundwater on evapotranspiration during dry...... by HIRHAM simulated precipitation. The last two simulations include iv) a standard HIRHAM simulation, and v) a fully coupled HIRHAM-MIKE SHE simulation locally replacing the land surface scheme by MIKE SHE for the FIFE area, while HIRHAM in standard configuration is used for the remaining model area...

  13. Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were

  14. Assessing the Climate Change Impact on Snow-Glacier Melting Dominated Basins in the Greater Himalaya Region Using a Distributed Glacio-Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Khalil, A.

    2014-12-01

    Glacier and snow melting is main source of water supply making a large contribution to streamflow of major river basins in the Greater Himalaya region including the Syr Darya, the Amu Darya, the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra basins. Due to the critical role of glacier and snow melting as water supply for both food production and hydropower generation in the region (especially during the low flow season), it is important to evaluate the vulnerability of snow and glacier melting streamflow to different climate conditions. In this study, a distributed glacio-hydrologic model with high resolution climate input is developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates all major hydrological processes and the glacier and snow dynamics for area further discretized by elevation bands. The distributed modeling structure and the glacier and snow modules provide a better understanding about how temperature and precipitation alterations are likely to affect current glacier ice reserves. Climate stress test is used to explore changes in the total streamflow change, snow/glacier melting contribution and glacier accumulation and ablation under a variety of different temperature and precipitation conditions. The latest future climate projections provided from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is used to inform the possibility of different climate conditions.

  15. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

  16. Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

    OpenAIRE

    Magali Troin; Daniel Caya; Juan Alberto Velázquez; François Brissette

    2015-01-01

    Study region: An analysis of hydrological response to a dynamically downscaled multi-member multi-model global climate model (GCM) ensemble of simulations based on the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented for three snowmelt-dominated basins in Canada. The basins are situated in the western mountainous (British Columbia) and eastern level (Quebec) regions in Canada, providing comprehensive experiments to validate the CRCM over various topographic features. Study focus: The ev...

  17. Evaluation of Water Quality Change of Brackish Lake in Snowy Cold Regions Accompanying Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, K.; Hasegawa, H.; Nakatsugawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    This study addresses evaluation of water quality change of brackish lake based on the estimation of hydrological quantities resulting from long-term hydrologic process accompanying climate change. For brackish lakes, such as Lake Abashiri in Eastern Hokkaido, there are concerns about water quality deterioration due to increases in water temperature and salinity. For estimating some hydrological quantities in the Abashiri River basin, including Lake Abashiri, we propose the following methods: 1) MRI-NHRCM20, a regional climate model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC AR5, 2) generalized extreme value distribution for correcting bias, 3) kriging adopted variogram for downscaling and 4) Long term Hydrologic Assessment model considering Snow process (LoHAS). In addition, we calculate the discharge from Abashiri River into Lake Abashiri by using estimated hydrological quantities and a tank model, and simulate impacts on water quality of Lake Abashiri due to climate change by setting necessary conditions, including the initial conditions of water temperature and water quality, the pollution load from the inflow rivers, the duration of ice cover and salt pale boundary. The result of the simulation of water quality indicates that climate change is expected to raise the water temperature of the lake surface by approximately 4°C and increase salinity of surface of the lake by approximately 4psu, also if salt pale boundary in the lake raises by approximately 2-m, the concentration of COD, T-N and T-P in the bottom of the lake might increase. The processes leading to these results are likely to be as follows: increased river water flows in along salt pale boundary in lake, causing dynamic flow of surface water; saline bottom water is entrained upward, where it mixes with surface water; and the shear force acting at salt pale boundary helps to increase the supply of salts from bottom saline water to the surface water. In the future, we will

  18. Projected impacts of climate change on hydrology, water resource use and adaptation needs for the Chu and Talas cross-border rivers basin, Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamil Iliasov, Shamil; Dolgikh, Svetlana; Lipponen, Annukka; Novikov, Viktor

    2014-05-01

    The observed long-term trends, variability and projections of future climate and hydrology of the Chu and Talas transboundary rivers basin were analysed using a common approach for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan parts of the basin. Historical, current and forecasted demands and main uses of water in the basin were elaborated by the joint effort of both countries. Such cooperative approach combining scientific data, water practitioners' outlook with decision making needs allowed the first time to produce a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in the Chu-Talas transboundary rivers basin, identify future needs and develop the initial set of adaptation measures and recommendations. This work was carried out under the project "Promoting Cooperation to Adapt to Climate Change in the Chu and Talas Transboundary Basin", supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Climate change projections, including air temperatures and rainfall in the 21st century were determined with a spatial resolution 0.5 degrees based on the integration of 15 climate change model outputs (derived from IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, and partially 5th Assessment Report) combined with locally-designed hydrology and glacier models. A significant increase in surface air temperatures by 3-6°C may be expected in the basin area, especially in summer and autumn. This change is likely to be accompanied by rainfall increase during the cold season and a decrease in the warm half of the year. As a result, a deterioration of moisture conditions during the summer-autumn period is possible. Furthermore, milder winters and hotter summers can be expected. Mountains will likely receive more liquid precipitation, than snow, while the area and volume of glaciers may significantly reduce. Projected changes in climate and glaciers have implications for river hydrology and different sectors of the economy dependent

  19. Evaluation of the performance of hydrological variables derived from GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2 in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological studies have found in data assimilation systems and global reanalysis of land surface variables (e.g soil moisture, streamflow) a wide range of applications, from drought monitoring to water balance and hydro-climatology variability assessment. Indeed, these hydrological data sources have led to an improvement in developing and testing monitoring and prediction systems in poorly gauged regions of the world. This work tests the accuracy and error of land surface variables (precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the data assimilation reanalysis products GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2. Validate the performance of these data platforms must be thoroughly evaluated in order to consider the error of hydrological variables (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the reanalysis products. For such purpose, a quantitative assessment was performed at 2,892 climatological stations, 42 stream gauges and 44 soil moisture probes located in Mexico and across different climate regimes (hyper-arid to tropical humid). Results show comparisons between these gridded products against ground-based observational stations for 1979-2014. The results of this analysis display a spatial distribution of errors and accuracy over Mexico discussing differences between climates, enabling the informed use of these products.

  20. Seasonal streamflow prediction by a combined climate-hydrologic system for river basins of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Yu, Pao-Shan

    2010-06-01

    SummaryA combined, climate-hydrologic system with three components to predict the streamflow of two river basins of Taiwan at one season (3-month) lead time for the NDJ and JFM seasons was developed. The first component consists of the wavelet-based, ANN-GA model (Artificial Neural Network calibrated by Genetic Algorithm) which predicts the seasonal rainfall by using selected sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors, given that SST are generally predictable by climate models up to 6-month lead time. For the second component, three disaggregation models, Valencia and Schaake (VS), Lane, and Canonical Random Cascade Model (CRCM), were tested to compare the accuracy of seasonal rainfall disaggregated by these three models to 3-day time scale rainfall data. The third component consists of the continuous rainfall-runoff model modified from HBV (called the MHBV) and calibrated by a global optimization algorithm against the observed rainfall and streamflow data of the Shihmen and Tsengwen river basins of Taiwan. The proposed system was tested, first by disaggregating the predicted seasonal rainfall of ANN-GA to rainfall of 3-day time step using the Lane model; then the disaggregated rainfall data was used to drive the calibrated MHBV to predict the streamflow for both river basins at 3-day time step up to a season's lead time. Overall, the streamflow predicted by this combined system for the NDJ season, which is better than that of the JFM season, will be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resources of these two river basins of Taiwan.

  1. Coupled Monitoring and Inverse Modeling to Investigate Surface - Subsurface Hydrological and Thermal Dynamics in the Arctic Tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, A. P.; Dafflon, B.; Hubbard, S. S.; Bisht, G.; Peterson, J.; Ulrich, C.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Wu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantitative characterization of the soil surface-subsurface hydrological and thermal processes is essential as they are primary factors that control the biogeochemical processes, ecological landscapes and greenhouse gas fluxes. In the Artic region, the surface-subsurface hydrological and thermal regimes co-interact and are both largely influenced by soil texture and soil organic content. In this study, we present a coupled inversion scheme that jointly inverts hydrological, thermal and geophysical data to estimate the vertical profiles of clay, sand and organic contents. Within this inversion scheme, the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) serves as a forward model to simulate the land-surface energy balance and subsurface hydrological-thermal processes. Soil electrical conductivity (from electrical resistivity tomography), temperature and water content are linked together via petrophysical and geophysical models. Particularly, the inversion scheme accounts for the influences of the soil organic and mineral content on both of the hydrological-thermal dynamics and the petrophysical relationship. We applied the inversion scheme to the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) intensive site in Barrow, AK, which is characterized by polygonal-shaped arctic tundra. The monitoring system autonomously provides a suite of above-ground measurements (e.g., precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, short-long wave radiation, canopy greenness and eddy covariance) as well as below-ground measurements (soil moisture, soil temperature, thaw layer thickness, snow thickness and soil electrical conductivity), which complement other periodic, manually collected measurements. The preliminary results indicate that the model can well reproduce the spatiotemporal dynamics of the soil temperature, and therefore, accurately predict the active layer thickness. The hydrological and thermal dynamics are closely linked to the polygon types and polygon features. The results also enable the

  2. Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

    2017-11-01

    A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

  3. Explanation of climate and human impacts on sediment discharge change in Darwinian hydrology: Derivation of a differential equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianjun; Gao, Guangyao; Fu, Bojie; Zhang, Lu

    2018-04-01

    The assessment for impacts of climate variability and human activities on suspended sediment yield (SSY) change has long been a question of great interest. However, the sediment generation processes are sophisticated with high nonlinearity and great uncertainty, which give rise to extreme complexity for SSY change assessment in Newtonian approach. Consequently, few approaches can be simply but widely applied to decompose impacts of climatic variability and human activities on SSY change. Thus, it is an urgent need to develop advanced methods that are simple and robust. Since that the Newtonian approach is hardly achievable due to limitation of either observations or knowledge of mechanisms, there have been repeated calls to capture the hydrologic system in Darwinian approach for hydrological change prediction or explanation. As streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, SSY change are thus documented in changes of sediment concentrated flow and suspended sediment concentration - water discharge (C-Q) relationships. By deduced corollaries, a differential equation of sediment discharge change was derived to explicitly decompose impacts of climate variability and human activities in Darwinian hydrology. Besides, a new form of sediment rating curves was proposed and curved as C-Q relationships and probability distribution of sediment concentrated flow. River sediment flux can be revealed by this representation, which simply elucidates mechanism of SSY generation covering a range of time scales from finer than rainfall-event to long term. By the new sediment rating curves, the differential equation was partly solved using a segmentation algorithm proposed and validated in this paper, and then was submitted to water balance framework expressed by Budyko-type equation. Thus, for catchment management, hydrologists can obtain explicit explanation of how climate variation and human activities propagate through landscape and result in sediment discharge change. The

  4. Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Scheff, Jacob

    2018-04-01

    Predicting how increasing atmospheric CO2 will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for a range of applications ranging from ecological services to human life and activities. A typical perspective is that hydrologic change is driven by precipitation and radiation changes due to climate change, and that the land surface will adjust. Using Earth system models with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) CO2 responses, we here show that the CO2 physiological response has a dominant role in evapotranspiration and evaporative fraction changes and has a major effect on long-term runoff compared with radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric CO2. This major effect is true for most hydrological stress variables over the largest fraction of the globe, except for soil moisture, which exhibits a more nonlinear response. This highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling future terrestrial hydrologic response and emphasizes that the carbon and water cycles are intimately coupled over land.

  5. Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiskel, Peter K.; Wolock, David M.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Vogel, Richard M.; Levin, Sara B.; Lent, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

  6. A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

  7. Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Arelia T.; Cannon, Alex J.

    2016-04-01

    Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e. correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e. tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), the climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3-day peak flow and 7-day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational data sets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational data set. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7-day low-flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational data set. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event

  8. Changing Hydrology in Glacier-fed High Altitude Andean Peatbogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slayback, D. A.; Yager, K.; Baraer, M.; Mohr, K. I.; Argollo, J.; Wigmore, O.; Meneses, R. I.; Mark, B. G.

    2012-12-01

    Montane peatbogs in the glacierized Andean highlands of Peru and Bolivia provide critical forage for camelids (llama and alpaca) in regionally extensive pastoral agriculture systems. During the long dry season, these wetlands often provide the only available green forage. A key question for the future of these peatbog systems, and the livelihoods they support, is the impact of climate change and glacier recession on their hydrology, and thus forage production. We have already documented substantial regional glacier recession, of, on average, approximately 30% of surface area over the past two decades. As glaciers begin to retreat under climate change, there is initially a period of increased meltwater outflow, culminating in a period of "peak water", and followed by a continual decline in outflows. Based on previous work, we know that some glaciers in the region have already passed peak water conditions, and are now declining. To better understand the impacts of these processes on peatbog hydrology and productivity, we have begun collecting a variety of surface data at several study sites in both Bolivia and Peru. These include precipitation, stream flow, water levels, water chemistry and isotope analyses, and peatbog biodiversity and biomass. These measurements will be used in conjunction with a regional model driven by satellite data to predict likely future impacts. We will present the results from these initial surface measurements, and an overview of satellite datasets to be used in the regional model.

  9. Application of the HBV model for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanev, Krassimir

    2004-01-01

    The model used in this report is a version of the HBV model developed for the project Climate Change and Energy Production, a Nordic project aimed at evaluating the impacts of climate change on the water resources. It has a simple vegetation parametrization including interception, temperature based evapotranspiration. calculations, lake evaporation, lake routing, glacier mass balance simulation, special functions for climate change simulations etc. The HBV model, originally developed at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in the first half of the seventies (Bergstroem 1976) has gained widespread use for a large range of applications both in Scandinavia and beyond. It can be classified as a semi-distributed conceptual model. The version described in this report was developed for the Nordic project 'Climate change and Energy Production' (Saelthun 1996), as a synthesis of several versions used in the different Nordic countries. The main input variables are the average daily temperature, daily totals of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration and the daily discharges. The HBV model was applied for assessment of climate change impacts on the elements of hydrological cycle for the Struma river basin. The river Struma flows from North to South up to the Aegean Sea. Considerable part of the river basin is situated in northwest part of Bulgaria, heaving an area of more than 10 000 km 2 and average elevation about 900m asl (cross-section Marino pole). The period of 16 years (1973-1988), four precipitation and temperature stations were used for the model parameters evaluation. The achieved value of R 2 (Nash criterion) is 0.55. The climate change impact calculations (monthly values of temperatures change in o C and precipitation change in %) for two scenarios were used for the input data correction to the HBV model. The obtained results are promising and they show the potential possibility for the HBV model use to assess the climate change

  10. Temporal variability in the importance of hydrologic, biotic, and climatic descriptors of dissolved oxygen dynamics in a shallow tidal-marsh creek

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Neale, P.; Tzortziou, M.; Megonigal, P.

    2017-12-01

    Due to strong abiotic forcing, dissolved oxygen (DO) in shallow tidal creeks often disobeys the conventional explanation of general aquatic DO cycling as biologically-regulated. In the present work, we seek to quantify the relative importance of abiotic (hydrologic and climatic), and biotic (primary productivity as represented by chlorophyll-a) descriptors of tidal creek DO. By fitting multiple linear regression models of DO to hourly chlorophyll-a, water quality, hydrology, and weather data collected in a tidal creek of a Chesapeake Bay marsh (Maryland, USA), temporal shifts (summer - early winter) in the relative importance of tidal creek DO descriptors were uncovered. Moreover, this analysis identified an alternative approach to evaluating tidal stage as a driver of DO by dividing stage into two DO-relevant variables: stage above and below bankfull depth. Within the hydrologic variable class, stage below bankfull depth dominated as an important descriptor, thus highlighting the role of pore water drainage and mixing as influential processes forcing tidal creek DO. Study findings suggest that tidal creek DO dynamics are explained by a balance of hydrologic, climatic, and biotic descriptors during warmer seasons due to many of these variables (i.e., chlorophyll-a, water temperature) acting as tracers of estuarine-marsh water mixing; conversely, in early winter months when estuarine and marsh waters differ less distinctly, hydrologic variables increase in relative importance as descriptors of tidal creek DO. These findings underline important distinctions in the underlying mechanisms dictating DO variability in shallow tidal marsh-creek environments relative to open water estuarine systems.

  11. Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaurio, Maite; Zabaleta, Ane; Boithias, Laurie; Epelde, Ane Miren; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, Jose-Miguel; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Antiguedad, Iñaki

    2017-05-01

    The climate changes projected for the 21st century will have consequences on the hydrological response of catchments. These changes, and their consequences, are most uncertain in the transition zones. The study area, in the Bay of Biscay, is located in the transition zone of the European Atlantic region, where hydrological impact of climate change was scarcely studied. In order to address this scarcity, the hydrological impacts of climate change on river discharge were assessed. To do so, a hydrological modelling was carried out considering 16 climate scenarios that include 5 General Circulation Models (GCM) from the 5th report of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), 2 statistical downscaling methods and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways. Projections for future discharge (2011-2100) were divided into three 30-year horizons (2030s, 2060s and 2090s) and a comparison was made between these time horizons and the baseline (1961-2000). The results show that the downscaling method used resulted in a higher source of uncertainty than GCM itself. In addition, the uncertainties inherent to the methods used at all the levels do not affect the results equally along the year. In spite of those uncertainties, general trends for the 2090s predict seasonal discharge decreases by around -17% in autumn, -16% in spring, -11% in winter and -7% in summer. These results are in line with those predicted for the Atlantic region (France and the Iberian Peninsula). Trends for extreme flows were also analysed: the most significant show an increase in the duration (days) of low flows. From an environmental point of view, and considering the need to meet the objectives established by the Water Framework Directive (WFD), this will be a major challenge for the future planning on water management.

  12. Assimilation of ASCAT near-surface soil moisture into the SIM hydrological model over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, C.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Wagner, W.

    2011-12-01

    This study examines whether the assimilation of remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture observations might benefit an operational hydrological model, specifically Météo-France's SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) model. Soil moisture data derived from ASCAT backscatter observations are assimilated into SIM using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF) over 3.5 years. The benefit of the assimilation is tested by comparison to a delayed cut-off version of SIM, in which the land surface is forced with more accurate atmospheric analyses, due to the availability of additional atmospheric observations after the near-real time data cut-off. However, comparing the near-real time and delayed cut-off SIM models revealed that the main difference between them is a dry bias in the near-real time precipitation forcing, which resulted in a dry bias in the root-zone soil moisture and associated surface moisture flux forecasts. While assimilating the ASCAT data did reduce the root-zone soil moisture dry bias (by nearly 50%), this was more likely due to a bias within the SEKF, than due to the assimilation having accurately responded to the precipitation errors. Several improvements to the assimilation are identified to address this, and a bias-aware strategy is suggested for explicitly correcting the model bias. However, in this experiment the moisture added by the SEKF was quickly lost from the model surface due to the enhanced surface fluxes (particularly drainage) induced by the wetter soil moisture states. Consequently, by the end of each winter, during which frozen conditions prevent the ASCAT data from being assimilated, the model land surface had returned to its original (dry-biased) climate. This highlights that it would be more effective to address the precipitation bias directly, than to correct it by constraining the model soil moisture through data assimilation.

  13. Soil surface roughness decay in contrasting climates, tillage types and management systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vázquez, Eva; Bertol, Ildegardis; Tondello Barbosa, Fabricio; Paz-Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Soil surface roughness describes the variations in the elevation of the soil surface. Such variations define the soil surface microrelief, which is characterized by a high spatial variability. Soil surface roughness is a property affecting many processes such as depression storage, infiltration, sediment generation, storage and transport and runoff routing. Therefore the soil surface microrelief is a key element in hydrology and soil erosion processes at different spatial scales as for example at the plot, field or catchment scale. In agricultural land soil surface roughness is mainly created by tillage operations, which promote to different extent the formation of microdepressions and microelevations and increase infiltration and temporal retention of water. The decay of soil surface roughness has been demonstrated to be mainly driven by rain height and rain intensity, and to depend also on runoff, aggregate stability, soil reface porosity and soil surface density. Soil roughness formation and decay may be also influenced by antecedent soil moisture (either before tillage or rain), quantity and type of plant residues over the soil surface and soil composition. Characterization of the rate and intensity of soil surface roughness decay provides valuable information about the degradation of the upper most soil surface layer before soil erosion has been initiated or at the very beginning of soil runoff and erosion processes. We analyzed the rate of decay of soil surface roughness from several experiments conducted in two regions under temperate and subtropical climate and with contrasting land use systems. The data sets studied were obtained both under natural and simulated rainfall for various soil tillage and management types. Soil surface roughness decay was characterized bay several parameters, including classic and single parameters such as the random roughness or the tortuosity and parameters based on advanced geostatistical methods or on the fractal theory. Our

  14. Estimation of bare soil surface temperature from air temperature and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Soil surface temperature has critical influence on climate, agricultural and hydrological activities since it serves as a good indicator of the energy budget of the earth's surface. Two empirical models for estimating soil surface temperature from air temperature and soil depth temperature were developed. The coefficient of ...

  15. Coupled land surface-subsurface hydrogeophysical inverse modeling to estimate soil organic carbon content and explore associated hydrological and thermal dynamics in the Arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Tran, Anh; Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan S.

    2017-09-01

    Quantitative characterization of soil organic carbon (OC) content is essential due to its significant impacts on surface-subsurface hydrological-thermal processes and microbial decomposition of OC, which both in turn are important for predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. While such quantification is particularly important in the vulnerable organic-rich Arctic region, it is challenging to achieve due to the general limitations of conventional core sampling and analysis methods, and to the extremely dynamic nature of hydrological-thermal processes associated with annual freeze-thaw events. In this study, we develop and test an inversion scheme that can flexibly use single or multiple datasets - including soil liquid water content, temperature and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data - to estimate the vertical distribution of OC content. Our approach relies on the fact that OC content strongly influences soil hydrological-thermal parameters and, therefore, indirectly controls the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil liquid water content, temperature and their correlated electrical resistivity. We employ the Community Land Model to simulate nonisothermal surface-subsurface hydrological dynamics from the bedrock to the top of canopy, with consideration of land surface processes (e.g., solar radiation balance, evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melting) and ice-liquid water phase transitions. For inversion, we combine a deterministic and an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm to estimate a posteriori distributions of desired model parameters. For hydrological-thermal-to-geophysical variable transformation, the simulated subsurface temperature, liquid water content and ice content are explicitly linked to soil electrical resistivity via petrophysical and geophysical models. We validate the developed scheme using different numerical experiments and evaluate the influence of measurement errors and benefit of joint inversion on the

  16. Elucidating Critical Zone Process Interactions with an Integrated Hydrology Model in a Headwaters Research Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Providence Creek (P300) watershed is an alpine headwaters catchment located at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Evidence of groundwater-dependent vegetation and drought-induced tree mortality at P300 along with the effect of subsurface characterization on mountain ecohydrology motivates this study. A hyper resolution integrated hydrology model of this site, along with extensive instrumentation, provides an opportunity to study the effects of lateral groundwater flow on vegetation's tolerance to drought. ParFlow-CLM is a fully integrated surface-subsurface model that is driven with reconstructed meteorology, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset. However, large-scale data products mute orographic effects on climate at smaller scales. Climate variables often do not behave uniformly in highly heterogeneous mountain regions. Therefore, forcing physically-based integrated hydrologic models—especially of mountain headwaters catchments—with a large-scale data product is a major challenge. Obtaining reliable observations in complex terrain is challenging and while climate data products introduce uncertainties likewise, documented discrepancies between several data products and P300 observations suggest these data products may suffice. To tackle these issues, a suite of simulations was run to parse out (1) the effects of climate data source (data products versus observations) and (2) the effects of climate data spatial variability. One tool for evaluating the effect of climate data on model outputs is the relationship between latent head flux (LH) and evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning with water table depth (WTD). This zone of LH sensitivity to WTD is referred to as the "critical zone." Preliminary results suggest that these critical zone relationships are preserved despite forcing albeit significant shifts in magnitude. These results demonstrate that integrated hydrology models are sensitive

  17. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  18. Parameterizing sub-surface drainage with geology to improve modeling streamflow responses to climate in data limited environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Tague

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic models are one of the core tools used to project how water resources may change under a warming climate. These models are typically applied over a range of scales, from headwater streams to higher order rivers, and for a variety of purposes, such as evaluating changes to aquatic habitat or reservoir operation. Most hydrologic models require streamflow data to calibrate subsurface drainage parameters. In many cases, long-term gage records may not be available for calibration, particularly when assessments are focused on low-order stream reaches. Consequently, hydrologic modeling of climate change impacts is often performed in the absence of sufficient data to fully parameterize these hydrologic models. In this paper, we assess a geologic-based strategy for assigning drainage parameters. We examine the performance of this modeling strategy for the McKenzie River watershed in the US Oregon Cascades, a region where previous work has demonstrated sharp contrasts in hydrology based primarily on geological differences between the High and Western Cascades. Based on calibration and verification using existing streamflow data, we demonstrate that: (1 a set of streams ranging from 1st to 3rd order within the Western Cascade geologic region can share the same drainage parameter set, while (2 streams from the High Cascade geologic region require a different parameter set. Further, we show that a watershed comprised of a mixture of High and Western Cascade geologies can be modeled without additional calibration by transferring parameters from these distinctive High and Western Cascade end-member parameter sets. More generally, we show that by defining a set of end-member parameters that reflect different geologic classes, we can more efficiently apply a hydrologic model over a geologically complex landscape and resolve geo-climatic differences in how different watersheds are likely to respond to simple warming scenarios.

  19. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  20. Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

    2018-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

  1. The influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on hydrological regime of rivers at the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Burenia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite a large number of publications covering various aspects of the influence of climatic factors on runoff, this direction in hydrological research acquires a new meaning in connection with the increase in anthropogenic pressure on river systems. In order to identify regional and local features of the hydrological regime of the rivers in Sayan mountain region, the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff of the main rivers in the study area were analyzed; the analysis of river flow trends against the backdrop of climate change and forest management in the drain areas was performed. Studies have shown that the revealed trends in the annual runoff of the studied rivers differ in type and in magnitude. The hydrological regime of the rivers with the negative trend of annual runoff is determined by the general nature of the humidification of the territory, which overrides the influence of all other factors. Despite a general trend of decreasing precipitation, the positive trend of annual runoff is due to a decrease in evaporation in the drainage areas, which depends both on the temperature regime of the research area and on the anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation under logging impact. In spite of the considerable variability of annual river flow, trends in runoff coefficients for study rivers vary slightly, indicating the relative stability in water availability. This is due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation in the drainage areas, i.e. new felling, regeneration on logging sites and creating forest crops. Obtained results show that at the regional level in conditions of anthropogenic pressure on the forests in the drainage areas of medium and small rivers, the trends of climatic parameters, in particular precipitation, are offset by the forest harvesting and subsequent reforestation dynamics at clear cuts.

  2. Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

  3. Use of Isotopic Techniques for the Assessment of Hydrological Interaction Surface Water and Groundwater. Rio Man - Cienaga Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palacio B, P.; Betancur V, T.; Dapena, C.

    2011-01-01

    This job integrates the first results from the studies ''Conceptual Hydrological Model for the middle and lower parts of the Man River basin using hydrological, hydrochemical and isotopic techniques'' (Palacio, 2011) and ''Hydrochemical and Isotopic techniques for the assessment of hydrological processes in the the wetlands of Bajo Cauca Antioquia'' (University of Antioquia and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Man river basin covers an area of 688 km 2 ; with temperatures ranging from 25 to 30 o C; The average annual rainfall is 2.800 mm. The geology of the area is composed mainly of clastic sedimentary rocks of continental origin. A hydrological model of interaction between surface water and groundwater for the lower middle of the Man River basin was obtained by the use of hydrological analysis techniques. This model was refined, adjusted and validated using isotope techniques based mainly on the analysis of spatial and temporal variance of stable isotopes found in rain water, surface bodies of water such as streams and wetlands, and in an unconfined aquifer.

  4. Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a review and synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, Chris M.; Wheater, Howard S.; Carey, Sean K.; Chun, Kwok P.

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 °C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken

  5. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  6. Watershed hydrology. Chapter 7.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elons S. Verry; Kenneth N. Brooks; Dale S. Nichols; Dawn R. Ferris; Stephen D. Sebestyen

    2011-01-01

    Watershed hydrology is determined by the local climate, land use, and pathways of water flow. At the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), streamflow is dominated by spring runoff events driven by snowmelt and spring rains common to the strongly continental climate of northern Minnesota. Snowmelt and rainfall in early spring saturate both mineral and organic soils and...

  7. Robustness and Uncertainty: Applications for Policy in Climate and Hydrological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, A. L., III

    2015-12-01

    Policymakers must often decide how to proceed when presented with conflicting simulation data from hydrological, climatological, and geological models. While laboratory sciences often appeal to the reproducibility of results to argue for the validity of their conclusions, simulations cannot use this strategy for a number of pragmatic and methodological reasons. However, robustness of predictions and causal structures can serve the same function for simulations as reproducibility does for laboratory experiments and field observations in either adjudicating between conflicting results or showing that there is insufficient justification to externally validate the results. Additionally, an interpretation of the argument from robustness is presented that involves appealing to the convergence of many well-built and diverse models rather than the more common version which involves appealing to the probability that one of a set of models is likely to be true. This interpretation strengthens the case for taking robustness as an additional requirement for the validation of simulation results and ultimately supports the idea that computer simulations can provide information about the world that is just as trustworthy as data from more traditional laboratory studies and field observations. Understanding the importance of robust results for the validation of simulation data is especially important for policymakers making decisions on the basis of potentially conflicting models. Applications will span climate, hydrological, and hydroclimatological models.

  8. Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Decharme, Bertrand; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Polcher, Jan; Fairbairn, David; Weedon, Graham P.

    2018-04-01

    Physically consistent descriptions of land surface hydrology are crucial for planning human activities that involve freshwater resources, especially in light of the expected climate change scenarios. We assess how atmospheric forcing data uncertainties affect land surface model (LSM) simulations by means of an extensive evaluation exercise using a number of state-of-the-art remote sensing and station-based datasets. For this purpose, we use the CO2-responsive ISBA-A-gs LSM coupled with the CNRM version of the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (CTRIP) river routing model. We perform multi-forcing simulations over the Euro-Mediterranean area (25-75.5° N, 11.5° W-62.5° E, at 0.5° resolution) from 1979 to 2012. The model is forced using four atmospheric datasets. Three of them are based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). The fourth dataset is independent from ERA-Interim: PGF, developed at Princeton University. The hydrological impacts of atmospheric forcing uncertainties are assessed by comparing simulated surface soil moisture (SSM), leaf area index (LAI) and river discharge against observation-based datasets: SSM from the European Space Agency's Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy and Climate Change Initiative projects (ESA-CCI), LAI of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), and Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) river discharge. The atmospheric forcing data are also compared to reference datasets. Precipitation is the most uncertain forcing variable across datasets, while the most consistent are air temperature and SW and LW radiation. At the monthly timescale, SSM and LAI simulations are relatively insensitive to forcing uncertainties. Some discrepancies with ESA-CCI appear to be forcing-independent and may be due to different assumptions underlying the LSM and the remote sensing retrieval algorithm. All simulations overestimate average summer and early-autumn LAI. Forcing uncertainty impacts on simulated river discharge are

  9. The Water Cycle from Space: Use of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology and Water Resource Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles; Blankenship, Clay; Khan, Maudood; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hornbuckle, Brian; Rowlandson, Tracy

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews how our understanding of the water cycle is enhanced by our use of satellite data, and how this informs land surface hydrology and water resource management. It reviews how NASA's current and future satellite missions will provide Earth system data of unprecedented breadth, accuracy and utility for hydrologic analysis.

  10. The application of a dynamic OpenMI coupling between a regional climate model and a distributed surface water-groundwater model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2014-01-01

    To support climate adaptation measures for water resources, we have developed and evaluated a dynamic coupling between a comprehensive distributed hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between the at......, including local measurements of energy fluxes. The results presented here suggest that there may be important differences in the simulated water balances for this catchment created by introducing an alternative hydrological model into the RCM....

  11. Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations.

  12. Mapping of Temporal Surface-water Resources Availability and Agricultural Adaptability due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in a Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

    2016-12-01

    Major part of Godavari River Basin is intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in the Western Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to regulate the effects of existing and upcoming hydro-meteorological advances in various strata. This study investigates and maps the surface water resources availability and vegetation, their decadal deviations with multi-temporal LANDSAT images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of Remote Sensing and GIS with Hydrological modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with NCEP dataset. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified to determine the decadal LULC changes and correlated to the community level hydrological demand. Finally, NDVI, NDWI and SWAT model analysis are accomplished to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area for identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis shows that the mean value of annual and monsoon rainfall is significantly decreasing, whereas the mean value of annual and summer temperature is increasing significantly and the winter temperature is decreasing. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that the surface water availability is highly dependent on climatic conditions. Barren-lands are most dynamic during the study period followed by, vegetation, and water bodies. The spatial extent of barren-lands is increased drastically during the climate vulnerable years replacing the vegetation and surface water bodies. Hence, the barren lands are constantly increasing and the vegetation cover is linearly decreasing, whereas the water extent is changing either way in a random fashion. There appears a positive correlation between surface water and vegetation occurrence; as they are fluctuating in a similar fashion in all the years. The vegetation cover is densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the

  13. Introduction to special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology : An overview of issues and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montanari, A.; Shoemaker, C.A.; Van de Giesen, N.C.

    This paper introduces the Water Resources Research special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology. Over the past years, hydrological literature has seen a large increase in the number of papers dealing with uncertainty. In this article, we present an overview of the

  14. The Swiss national network for isotopes in the hydrological cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schotterer, U.

    1998-01-01

    The network is based on the long-term stations of the Climate and Environmental Physics Group and includes 11 precipitation, 6 river and 3 ground water stations. For the isotope measurements the Universities of Bern (Climate and Environmental Physics Group, tritium and oxygen-18) and Lausanne (Institute for Mineralogy and Petrography, deuterium) are contracted on a year to year basis. Sampling instructions, collection and shipment of samples are within the responsibility of the Bern group. The sampling apart from monthly composites of precipitation includes also samples from surface and ground water. The isotope data are available by contacting the Swiss Hydrological and Geological Survey directly

  15. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  16. Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

    2013-04-01

    Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

  17. Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: a tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanaga, Takuya; Zare, Fateme; Croke, Barry; Fu, Baihua; Merritt, Wendy; Partington, Daniel; Ticehurst, Jenifer; Jakeman, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Management of water resources requires understanding of the hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as the policy and human drivers and their impacts. This understanding requires relevant inputs from a wide range of disciplines, which will vary depending on the specific case study. One approach to gain understanding of the impact of climate and society on water resources is through the use of an integrated modelling process that engages stakeholders and experts in specifics of problem framing, co-design of the underpinning conceptual model, and discussion of the ensuing results. In this study, we have developed such an integrated modelling process for the Campaspe basin in northern Victoria, Australia. The numerical model built has a number of components: - Node/link based surface water hydrology module based on the IHACRES rainfall-streamflow model - Distributed groundwater model for the lower catchment (MODFLOW) - Farm decision optimisation module (to determine irrigation requirements) - Policy module (setting conditions on availability of water based on existing rules) - Ecology module (determining the impacts of available streamflow on platypus, fish and river red gum trees) The integrated model is component based and has been developed in Python, with the MODFLOW and surface water hydrology model run in external programs, controlled by the master program (in Python). The integrated model has been calibrated using historical data, with the intention of exploring the impact of various scenarios (future climate scenarios, different policy options, water management options) on the water resources. The scenarios were selected based on workshops with, and a social survey of, stakeholders in the basin regarding what would be socially acceptable and physically plausible options for changes in management. An example of such a change is the introduction of a managed aquifer recharge system to capture dam overflows, and store at least a portion of this in the aquifer

  18. Eco-hydrological process simulations within an integrated surface water-groundwater model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Loinaz, Maria Christina; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Integrated water resources management requires tools that can quantify changes in groundwater, surface water, water quality and ecosystem health, as a result of changes in catchment management. To address these requirements we have developed an integrated eco-hydrological modelling framework...... that allows hydrologists and ecologists to represent the complex and dynamic interactions occurring between surface water, ground water, water quality and freshwater ecosystems within a catchment. We demonstrate here the practical application of this tool to two case studies where the interaction of surface...... water and ground water are important for the ecosystem. In the first, simulations are performed to understand the importance of surface water-groundwater interactions for a restored riparian wetland on the Odense River in Denmark as part of a larger investigation of water quality and nitrate retention...

  19. Implications of global climate change on water resources of the south Asian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lal, M.

    1994-01-01

    An assessment of future changes in the mean and/or variances of hydrological parameters due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases is much warranted for south Asia for developing adaptive response strategies. The evolution of changes in surface meteorological as well as hydrological parameters in the transient numerical experiments with the current state-of-art coupled climate models holds much promise for a better understanding of the interannual variability of climate and its change on a regional scale. A plausible future hydrological scenario for the south Asian region based on the numerical results obtained from the reference control and greenhouse warming simulations (using the Business-as-Usual scenario of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere) with the Hamburg climate model is presented in this paper. For validation of regional-scale model-simulated hydrology and the assessment of future changes, analysis of data has been performed for annual mean conditions as well as for two seasons, namely, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). Their results suggest a rise in annual mean surface air temperature of about 1.0 to 2.5 C over the ocean and between 2.0 to 4.5 C over the land regions of south Asia during the next hundred years. During the NH-winter, surface warming in the land regions of India and China is considerably higher (3.6 C) than during the NH-summer (2.7 C). The model simulates an increase in total (averaged for land points over the study area) annual precipitation of about 16 cm per year in a warmer atmosphere

  20. Hydrologic Impact of Harvesting and Road Construction in Mountainous Regime of Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Hubbart, J.; Gravelle, J.; Link, T.

    2006-12-01

    The impact of forest management practices on hydrologic flow regimes have been debated for years. Vegetation removal and forest road construction are two anthropogenic disturbances that may affect watershed hydrology. The Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), ID was initiated by Potlatch Corporation in 1990 to evaluate how contemporary forest harvest practices may impact water flows, quality and aquatic health. The study was recently expanded to identify the specific mechanisms producing the observed flow responses. The extensive and long term monitoring program in MCEW enables the validation of simulated internal watershed processes, thereby increasing our confidence in the ability of models to simulate the hydrologic effects of land cover change. The spatially-distributed, physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), will be used to deconvolve the effects of canopy change, forest road construction, and climate variability in MCEW. First, the model performance will be assessed for pre-harvest, post-road, and post-harvest experimental periods. The model will then be used to explore how the flow regime would be expected to differ under historical, alternative management and future scenarios. A retrospective study of fully-harvested and increased forest road density (as opposed to current road density of 3 to 5 percent by surface area) will be compared with contemporary management practices. The impact of harvest patterns on sub-catchment flows will be assessed to understand the degree to which flow synchronization or desynchronization on confluent streams might affect cumulative downstream flow regime. Future scenarios will assess the potential impact of climatic variability that is expected to raise the transient snow zone and increase the wintertime rain to snow ratios in the Pacific Northwest. Variables such as harvest patterns and climate variation will be manipulated to project whether the hydrologic effects of land cover and

  1. Visualization in hydrological and atmospheric modeling and observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, C.; Rink, K.; Kolditz, O.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, visualization of geoscientific and climate data has become increasingly important due to challenges such as climate change, flood prediction or the development of water management schemes for arid and semi-arid regions. Models for simulations based on such data often have a large number of heterogeneous input data sets, ranging from remote sensing data and geometric information (such as GPS data) to sensor data from specific observations sites. Data integration using such information is not straightforward and a large number of potential problems may occur due to artifacts, inconsistencies between data sets or errors based on incorrectly calibrated or stained measurement devices. Algorithms to automatically detect various of such problems are often numerically expensive or difficult to parameterize. In contrast, combined visualization of various data sets is often a surprisingly efficient means for an expert to detect artifacts or inconsistencies as well as to discuss properties of the data. Therefore, the development of general visualization strategies for atmospheric or hydrological data will often support researchers during assessment and preprocessing of the data for model setup. When investigating specific phenomena, visualization is vital for assessing the progress of the ongoing simulation during runtime as well as evaluating the plausibility of the results. We propose a number of such strategies based on established visualization methods that - are applicable to a large range of different types of data sets, - are computationally inexpensive to allow application for time-dependent data - can be easily parameterized based on the specific focus of the research. Examples include the highlighting of certain aspects of complex data sets using, for example, an application-dependent parameterization of glyphs, iso-surfaces or streamlines. In addition, we employ basic rendering techniques allowing affine transformations, changes in opacity as well

  2. Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

  3. Climate-induced hotspots in surface energy fluxes from 1948 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng Li; Liu Shuhua; Liu Heping

    2010-01-01

    Understanding how land surfaces respond to climate change requires knowledge of land-surface processes, which control the degree to which interannual variability and mean trends in climatic variables affect the surface energy budget. We use the latest version of the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), which is driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observation atmospheric forcing dataset constructed by Princeton University, to obtain global distributions of the surface energy budget from 1948 to 2000. We identify climate change hotspots and surface energy flux hotspots from 1948 to 2000. Surface energy flux hotspots, which reflect regions with strong changes in surface energy fluxes, reveal seasonal variations with strong signals in winter, spring, and autumn and weak ones in summer. Locations for surface energy flux hotspots are not, however, fully linked with those for climate change hotspots, suggesting that only in some regions are land surfaces more responsive to climate change in terms of interannual variability and mean trends.

  4. Dependence of Wetland Vegetation on Hydrological Regime in a Large Floodplain Lake (Poyang Lake) in the Middle Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Q.; Tan, Z.; Xu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Exemplified in the Yangtze River floodplain lake, Poyang Lake, investigations were carried out to examine the dependence of vegetation on hydrological variables. The Lake is one of the few lakes that remain naturally connected to the Yangtze River. The Lake surface expanses to 4000 km2 in wet seasons, and reduces to less than 1000 km2 in dry seasons, creating some 3000 km2 vital wetland habitats for many animals. Remote sensing was used to obtain the spatial distribution of wetland vegetations. A lake hydrodynamic model using MIKE 21 was employed to determine the variability of wetland inundation. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, and groundwater depth were also conducted in a typical wetland transect of 1 km long. Vegetations were sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation highly depended on the inundation duration and depth. Optimal hydrological variables existed for the typical vegetations in Poyang Lake wetland. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further demonstrated that both groundwater depth and soil moisture had significant effects on the growth of vegetation and the water demand in terms of transpiration, even in a wet climate zone such as middle Yangtze River. It was found that the optimal groundwater depths existed for both above- and belowground biomass. Simulation scenarios indicated that climate changes and human modification of hydrology would affect the water usage of vegetation and may cause a strategic adaptation of the vegetation to the stressed hydrological conditions. The study revealed new knowledge on the high dependence of wetland vegetation on both surface water regime and groundwater depths, in wet climate zone. Outcomes of this study may provide support for an integrated management of balancing water resources development and wetland sustainability maintenance in Poyang Lake, and other floodplain wetlands, with

  5. PNW Hydrologic Landscape Class

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Work has been done to expand the hydrologic landscapes (HLs) concept and to develop an approach for using it to address streamflow vulnerability from climate change....

  6. Integrating remotely sensed surface water extent into continental scale hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Wanders, Niko; Burek, Peter; Salamon, Peter; de Roo, Ad

    2016-12-01

    In hydrological forecasting, data assimilation techniques are employed to improve estimates of initial conditions to update incorrect model states with observational data. However, the limited availability of continuous and up-to-date ground streamflow data is one of the main constraints for large-scale flood forecasting models. This is the first study that assess the impact of assimilating daily remotely sensed surface water extent at a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution derived from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) into a global rainfall-runoff including large ungauged areas at the continental spatial scale in Africa and South America. Surface water extent is observed using a range of passive microwave remote sensors. The methodology uses the brightness temperature as water bodies have a lower emissivity. In a time series, the satellite signal is expected to vary with changes in water surface, and anomalies can be correlated with flood events. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a Monte-Carlo implementation of data assimilation and used here by applying random sampling perturbations to the precipitation inputs to account for uncertainty obtaining ensemble streamflow simulations from the LISFLOOD model. Results of the updated streamflow simulation are compared to baseline simulations, without assimilation of the satellite-derived surface water extent. Validation is done in over 100 in situ river gauges using daily streamflow observations in the African and South American continent over a one year period. Some of the more commonly used metrics in hydrology were calculated: KGE', NSE, PBIAS%, R 2 , RMSE, and VE. Results show that, for example, NSE score improved on 61 out of 101 stations obtaining significant improvements in both the timing and volume of the flow peaks. Whereas the validation at gauges located in lowland jungle obtained poorest performance mainly due to the closed forest influence on the satellite signal retrieval. The conclusion is that

  7. Multi-scale validation of a new soil freezing scheme for a land-surface model with physically-based hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Gouttevin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Soil freezing is a major feature of boreal regions with substantial impact on climate. The present paper describes the implementation of the thermal and hydrological effects of soil freezing in the land surface model ORCHIDEE, which includes a physical description of continental hydrology. The new soil freezing scheme is evaluated against analytical solutions and in-situ observations at a variety of scales in order to test its numerical robustness, explore its sensitivity to parameterization choices and confront its performance to field measurements at typical application scales.

    Our soil freezing model exhibits a low sensitivity to the vertical discretization for spatial steps in the range of a few millimetres to a few centimetres. It is however sensitive to the temperature interval around the freezing point where phase change occurs, which should be 1 °C to 2 °C wide. Furthermore, linear and thermodynamical parameterizations of the liquid water content lead to similar results in terms of water redistribution within the soil and thermal evolution under freezing. Our approach does not allow firm discrimination of the performance of one approach over the other.

    The new soil freezing scheme considerably improves the representation of runoff and river discharge in regions underlain by permafrost or subject to seasonal freezing. A thermodynamical parameterization of the liquid water content appears more appropriate for an integrated description of the hydrological processes at the scale of the vast Siberian basins. The use of a subgrid variability approach and the representation of wetlands could help capture the features of the Arctic hydrological regime with more accuracy.

    The modeling of the soil thermal regime is generally improved by the representation of soil freezing processes. In particular, the dynamics of the active layer is captured with more accuracy, which is of crucial importance in the prospect of

  8. Scaling Hydrologic Processes in Boreal Forest Stands: New Eco-hydrological Perspectives or Deja vu?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silins, U.; Lieffers, V. J.; Landhausser, S. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Gan, T. Y.

    2006-12-01

    The leaf area of forest canopies is both main attribute of stands controlling water balance through transpiration and interception, and "engine" driving stand growth, stand dynamics, and forest succession. While transpiration and interception dynamics are classic themes in forest hydrology, we present results from our eco-hydrological research on boreal trees to highlight how more recent eco-physiological insights into species specific controls over water use and leaf area such as hydraulic architecture, cavitation, sapwood-leaf area relationships, and root system controls over water uptake are providing new insights into integrated atmospheric-autecological controls over these hydrologic processes. These results are discussed in the context of newer eco-hydrological frameworks which may serve to aid in exploring how forest disturbance and subsequent trajectories of hydrologic recovery are likely to affect both forest growth dynamics and hydrology of forested landscapes in response to forest management, severe forest pest epidemics such as the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in Western Canada, and climate change.

  9. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  10. Use of environmental isotopes in arid zone hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dincer, T.

    1980-01-01

    After aridity is defined some physical and hydrologic features common in arid lands are described. An attempt has been made to identify various groundwater recharge mechanisms in arid countries and to assess their relative importance. The influence of the arid climates on the isotopic composition of the precipitation is discussed. The use of environmental isotopes in run-off and precipitation infiltration and recharge is evaluated, and the importance of isotopic studies in investigating interrelations between aquifers is stressed. Finally, some examples of isotope applications in surface water and its relation to groundwater are given. (author)

  11. Modeling Subsurface Hydrology in Floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cristina M.; Dritschel, David G.; Singer, Michael B.

    2018-03-01

    Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at six sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarized to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.

  12. Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future

  13. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  14. Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

    2015-04-01

    The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a

  15. Understanding Hydrological Processes in Variable Source Areas in the Glaciated Northeastern US Watersheds under Variable Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Azzaino, Z.; Hoang, L.; Pacenka, S.; Worqlul, A. W.; Mukundan, R.; Stoof, C.; Owens, E. M.; Richards, B. K.

    2017-12-01

    The New York City source watersheds in the Catskill Mountains' humid, temperate climate has long-term hydrological and water quality monitoring data It is one of the few catchments where implementation of source and landscape management practices has led to decreased phosphorus concentration in the receiving surface waters. One of the reasons is that landscape measures correctly targeted the saturated variable source runoff areas (VSA) in the valley bottoms as the location where most of the runoff and other nonpoint pollutants originated. Measures targeting these areas were instrumental in lowering phosphorus concentration. Further improvements in water quality can be made based on a better understanding of the flow processes and water table fluctuations in the VSA. For that reason, we instrumented a self-contained upland variable source watershed with a landscape characteristic of a soil underlain by glacial till at shallow depth similar to the Catskill watersheds. In this presentation, we will discuss our experimental findings and present a mathematical model. Variable source areas have a small slope making gravity the driving force for the flow, greatly simplifying the simulation of the flow processes. The experimental data and the model simulations agreed for both outflow and water table fluctuations. We found that while the flows to the outlet were similar throughout the year, the discharge of the VSA varies greatly. This was due to transpiration by the plants which became active when soil temperatures were above 10oC. We found that shortly after the temperature increased above 10oC the baseflow stopped and only surface runoff occurred when rainstorms exceeded the storage capacity of the soil in at least a portion of the variable source area. Since plant growth in the variable source area was a major variable determining the base flow behavior, changes in temperature in the future - affecting the duration of the growing season - will affect baseflow and

  16. Stable water isotope patterns in a climate change hotspot: the isotope hydrology framework of Corsica (western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geldern, Robert; Kuhlemann, Joachim; Schiebel, Ralf; Taubald, Heinrich; Barth, Johannes A C

    2014-06-01

    The Mediterranean is regarded as a region of intense climate change. To better understand future climate change, this area has been the target of several palaeoclimate studies which also studied stable isotope proxies that are directly linked to the stable isotope composition of water, such as tree rings, tooth enamel or speleothems. For such work, it is also essential to establish an isotope hydrology framework of the region of interest. Surface waters from streams and lakes as well as groundwater from springs on the island of Corsica were sampled between 2003 and 2009 for their oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Isotope values from lake waters were enriched in heavier isotopes and define a local evaporation line (LEL). On the other hand, stream and spring waters reflect the isotope composition of local precipitation in the catchment. The intersection of the LEL and the linear fit of the spring and stream waters reflect the mean isotope composition of the annual precipitation (δP) with values of-8.6(± 0.2) ‰ for δ(18)O and-58(± 2) ‰ for δ(2)H. This value is also a good indicator of the average isotope composition of the local groundwater in the island. Surface water samples reflect the altitude isotope effect with a value of-0.17(± 0.02) ‰ per 100 m elevation for oxygen isotopes. At Vizzavona Pass in central Corsica, water samples from two catchments within a lateral distance of only a few hundred metres showed unexpected but systematic differences in their stable isotope composition. At this specific location, the direction of exposure seems to be an important factor. The differences were likely caused by isotopic enrichment during recharge in warm weather conditions in south-exposed valley flanks compared to the opposite, north-exposed valley flanks.

  17. Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

  18. Understanding wetland sub-surface hydrology using geologic and isotopic signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sahu

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to utilize hydrogeology and isotope composition of groundwater to understand the present hydrological processes prevalent in a freshwater wetland, source of wetland groundwater, surface water/groundwater interaction and mixing of groundwater of various depth zones in the aquifer. This study considers East Calcutta Wetlands (ECW – a freshwater peri-urban inland wetland ecosystem located at the lower part of the deltaic alluvial plain of South Bengal Basin and east of Kolkata city. This wetland is well known over the world for its resource recovery systems, developed by local people through ages, using wastewater of the city. Geological investigations reveal that the sub-surface geology is completely blanketed by the Quaternary sediments comprising a succession of silty clay, sand of various grades and sand mixed with occasional gravels and thin intercalations of silty clay. At few places the top silty clay layer is absent due to scouring action of past channels. In these areas sand is present throughout the geological column and the areas are vulnerable to groundwater pollution. Groundwater mainly flows from east to west and is being over-extracted to the tune of 65×103 m3/day. δ18O and δD values of shallow and deep groundwater are similar indicating resemblance in hydrostratigraphy and climate of the recharge areas. Groundwater originates mainly from monsoonal rain with some evaporation prior to or during infiltration and partly from bottom of ponds, canals and infiltration of groundwater withdrawn for irrigation. Relatively high tritium content of the shallow groundwater indicates local recharge, while the deep groundwater with very low tritium is recharged mainly from distant areas. At places the deep aquifer has relatively high tritium, indicating mixing of groundwater of shallow and deep aquifers. Metals such as copper, lead, arsenic, cadmium, aluminium, nickel and chromium are also

  19. Understanding wetland sub-surface hydrology using geologic and isotopic signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, P. K.; Sahu, P.

    2009-07-01

    This paper attempts to utilize hydrogeology and isotope composition of groundwater to understand the present hydrological processes prevalent in a freshwater wetland, source of wetland groundwater, surface water/groundwater interaction and mixing of groundwater of various depth zones in the aquifer. This study considers East Calcutta Wetlands (ECW) - a freshwater peri-urban inland wetland ecosystem located at the lower part of the deltaic alluvial plain of South Bengal Basin and east of Kolkata city. This wetland is well known over the world for its resource recovery systems, developed by local people through ages, using wastewater of the city. Geological investigations reveal that the sub-surface geology is completely blanketed by the Quaternary sediments comprising a succession of silty clay, sand of various grades and sand mixed with occasional gravels and thin intercalations of silty clay. At few places the top silty clay layer is absent due to scouring action of past channels. In these areas sand is present throughout the geological column and the areas are vulnerable to groundwater pollution. Groundwater mainly flows from east to west and is being over-extracted to the tune of 65×103 m3/day. δ18O and δD values of shallow and deep groundwater are similar indicating resemblance in hydrostratigraphy and climate of the recharge areas. Groundwater originates mainly from monsoonal rain with some evaporation prior to or during infiltration and partly from bottom of ponds, canals and infiltration of groundwater withdrawn for irrigation. Relatively high tritium content of the shallow groundwater indicates local recharge, while the deep groundwater with very low tritium is recharged mainly from distant areas. At places the deep aquifer has relatively high tritium, indicating mixing of groundwater of shallow and deep aquifers. Metals such as copper, lead, arsenic, cadmium, aluminium, nickel and chromium are also present in groundwater of various depths. Therefore

  20. Amplification of wildfire area burnt by hydrological drought in the humid tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taufik, Muh; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Jones, Philip D.; Murdiyarso, Daniel; van Lanen, Henny A. J.

    2017-06-01

    Borneo's diverse ecosystems, which are typical humid tropical conditions, are deteriorating rapidly, as the area is experiencing recurrent large-scale wildfires, affecting atmospheric composition and influencing regional climate processes. Studies suggest that climate-driven drought regulates wildfires, but these overlook subsurface processes leading to hydrological drought, an important driver. Here, we show that models which include hydrological processes better predict area burnt than those solely based on climate data. We report that the Borneo landscape has experienced a substantial hydrological drying trend since the early twentieth century, leading to progressive tree mortality, more severe than in other tropical regions. This has caused massive wildfires in lowland Borneo during the past two decades, which we show are clustered in years with large areas of hydrological drought coinciding with strong El Niño events. Statistical modelling evidence shows amplifying wildfires and greater area burnt in response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength, when hydrology is considered. These results highlight the importance of considering hydrological drought for wildfire prediction, and we recommend that hydrology should be considered in future studies of the impact of projected ENSO strength, including effects on tropical ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation.

  1. Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucci, Carlos Eduardo Morelli; Clarke, Robin Thomas; Collischonn, Walter; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995-2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

  2. The importance of geomorphic and hydrologic factors in shaping the sensitivity of alpine/subalpine lake volumes to shifts in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, J.; Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Befus, K. M.; Williams, D. G.; Kraushaar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine and subalpine lakes are important components of the hydrologic cycle in mountain ecosystems. These lakes are also highly sensitive to small shifts in temperature and precipitation. Mountain lake volumes and their contributions to mountain hydrology may change in response to even minor declines in snowpack or increases in temperature. However, it is still not clear to what degree non-climatic factors, such as geomorphic setting and lake geometry, play in shaping the sensitivity of high elevation lakes to climate change. We investigated the importance of lake geometry and groundwater connectivity to mountain lakes in the Snowy Range, Wyoming using a combination of hydrophysical and hydrochemical methods, including stable water isotopes, to better understand the role these factors play in controlling lake volume. Water isotope values in open lakes were less sensitive to evaporation compared to those in closed basin lakes. Lake geometry played an important role, with wider, shallower lakes being more sensitive to evaporation over time. Groundwater contributions appear to play only a minor role in buffering volumetric changes to lakes over the growing season. These results confirm that mountain lakes are sensitive to climate factors, but also highlight a significant amount of variability in that sensitivity. This research has implications for water resource managers concerned with downstream water quantity and quality from mountain ecosystems, biologists interested in maintaining aquatic biodiversity, and paleoclimatologists interested in using lake sedimentary information to infer past climate regimes.

  3. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens

    2014-05-01

    Accurate and long time series of hydrological data are important for understanding land surface water and energy budgets in many parts of the world, as well as for improving real-time hydrological monitoring and climate change anticipation. The ultimate goal of the present work is to produce a multi-decadal "land surface hydrological reanalysis" dataset with retrospective and updated hydrological states and fluxes that are constrained to available in-situ river discharge measurements. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), which is a large-scale hydrological model intended for global to regional studies. PCR-GLOBWB provides a grid-based representation of terrestrial hydrology with a typical spatial resolution of approximately 50×50 km (currently 0.5° globally) on a daily basis. For each grid cell, PCR-GLOBWB simulates moisture storage in two vertically stacked soil layers as well as the water exchange between the soil and the atmosphere and the underlying groundwater reservoir. Exchange to the atmosphere comprises precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, as well as snow accumulation and melt, which are all simulated by considering vegetation phenology and sub-grid variations of elevation, land cover and soil saturation distribution. The model includes improved schemes for runoff-infiltration partitioning, interflow, groundwater recharge and baseflow, as well as river routing of discharge. It also dynamically simulates water storage in reservoirs, water demand and the withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. By embedding the PCR-GLOBWB model in an Ensemble Kalman Filter framework, we calibrate the model parameters based on the discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre. The parameters calibrated are related to snow accumulation and melt, runoff-infiltration partitioning, groundwater recharge, channel discharge and baseflow processes, as well as pre-factors to correct forcing precipitation

  4. [Effects of soil crusts on surface hydrology in the semiarid Loess hilly area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Wei; Wen, Zhi; Chen, Li-Ding; Chen, Jin; Wu, Dong-Ping

    2012-11-01

    Soil crusts are distributed extensively in the Chinese Loess Plateau and play key roles in surface hydrological processes. In this study, a typical loess hilly region in Anjiagou catchment, Dingxi city, Gansu province was selected as the study region, and soil crusts in the catchment were investigated. Then, the hydrological effect of soil crusts was studied by using multi-sampling and hydrological monitoring experiments. Several key results were shown as follows. Firstly, compared with bared soil without crust cover, soil crusts can greatly reduce the bulk density, improve the porosity of soil, and raise the holding capacity of soil moisture which ranges from 1.4 to 1.9 times of that of bared soil. Secondly, the role of soil crust on rainfall interception was very significant. Moss crust was found to be strongest on rainfall interception, followed by synantectic crusts and lichen crusts. Bared soil without covering crusts was poorest in resisting rainfall splash. Thirdly, hydrological simulation experiments indicate that soil crusts play a certain positive role in promoting the water infiltration capacity, and the mean infiltration rate of the crusted soil was 2 times higher than that of the no-crust covered soils. While the accumulated infiltrated water amounts was also far higher than that of the bared soil.

  5. 30 CFR 817.57 - Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.57 Hydrologic balance: Surface... by roads, railroads, conveyors, pipelines, utilities, or similar facilities. You must comply with all...

  6. Modelling of spatio-temporal precipitation relevant for urban hydrology with focus on scales, extremes and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen

    -correlation lengths for sub-daily extreme precipitation besides having too low intensities. Especially the wrong spatial correlation structure is disturbing from an urban hydrological point of view as short-term extremes will cover too much ground if derived directly from bias corrected regional climate model output...... of precipitation are compared and used to rank climate models with respect to performance metrics. The four different observational data sets themselves are compared at daily temporal scale with respect to climate indices for mean and extreme precipitation. Data density seems to be a crucial parameter for good...... happening in summer and most of the daily extremes in fall. This behaviour is in good accordance with reality where short term extremes originate in convective precipitation cells that occur when it is very warm and longer term extremes originate in frontal systems that dominate the fall and winter seasons...

  7. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  8. Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Y.; Flanner, M.; Leung, R.; Wang, W.

    2012-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative flux changes induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to any other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative flux changes of 5-25 W m-2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0oC averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1-4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April-July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring

  9. Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia - status and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

    2017-02-01

    Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

  10. Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Higgins, Hélène; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Marsh, Terry; Looser, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change—the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future—and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.

  11. Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.

    1994-01-01

    A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

  12. Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A J

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study

  13. Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

    2016-07-01

    Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

  14. Susquehanna River Basin Hydrologic Observing System (SRBHOS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.; Duffy, C. J.; Dressler, K. A.

    2004-12-01

    In response to the NSF-CUAHSI initiative for a national network of Hydrologic Observatories, we propose to initiate the Susquehanna River Basin Hydrologic Observing System (SRBHOS), as the northeast node. The Susquehanna has a drainage area of 71, 410 km2. From the headwaters near Cooperstown, NY, the river is formed within the glaciated Appalachian Plateau physiographic province, crossing the Valley and Ridge, then the Piedmont, before finishing its' 444 mile journey in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay. The Susquehanna is the major source of water and nutrients to the Chesapeake. It has a rich history in resource development (logging, mining, coal, agriculture, urban and heavy industry), with an unusual resilience to environmental degradation, which continues today. The shallow Susquehanna is one of the most flood-ravaged rivers in the US with a decadal regularity of major damage from hurricane floods and rain-on-snow events. As a result of this history, it has an enormous infrastructure for climate, surface water and groundwater monitoring already in place, including the nations only regional groundwater monitoring system for drought detection. Thirty-six research institutions have formed the SRBHOS partnership to collaborate on a basin-wide network design for a new scientific observing system. Researchers at the partner universities have conducted major NSF research projects within the basin, setting the stage and showing the need for a new terrestrial hydrologic observing system. The ultimate goal of SRBHOS is to close water, energy and solute budgets from the boundary layer to the water table, extending across plot, hillslope, watershed, and river basin scales. SRBHOS is organized around an existing network of testbeds (legacy watershed sites) run by the partner universities, and research institutions. The design of the observing system, when complete, will address fundamental science questions within major physiographic regions of the basin. A nested

  15. Use of Isotopic Techniques for the Assessment of Hydrological Processes in Wetlands (Cienaga Colombia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Betancur, T.; Santa, D.; Palacio, P.; Palacio, C.; Wills, B.; Hoyos, D. A. [Universidad de Antioquia, Medellin (Colombia)

    2013-07-15

    The Cienaga Colombia wetland is located in the Bajo Cauca Antioqueno region where the 'Man' river flows into the Cauca River. Hydrological processes on the Cienaga Colombia wetland are complex because of the interactive effects of both local and regional elements, associated with a typical tropical wet climatic regime. In this groundwater dependent wetland hydrological studies have been conducted, including hydrochemical analyses and isotope tracers, to describe and understand the interactions between groundwater and surface water, not only for the wetland itself but also for the entire catchment area. Rain samples (five year record) were used to obtain the LML: {delta}{sup 2}H = 8.03 {delta}{sup 18}O +9.9. The evaporation line is: {delta}{sup 2}H = 5.9 {delta}{sup 18}O - 7.3. According to the analyses, both groundwater and surface waters have the same isotopic signatures. Unsustainable land use practices along with current and predicted global environmental changes may cause negative impacts on the hydrological functioning of the region, affecting primarily, but not exclusively, evapotranspiration-recharge processes and the sustainability of the entire system. (author)

  16. Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2017-10-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

  17. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  18. Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

    2009-02-01

    The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

  19. Seasonal dynamics of surface chlorophyll concentration and sea surface temperature, as indicator of hydrological structure of the ocean (by satellite data)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Vysotskaya, Galina

    different types of instability in the all Global ocean. They are observed as adjacent nonstationary zones of different size, which are associ-ated by different ways with known oceanic phenomena. It is evident that dynamics of a spatial distribution of biological productivity can give an additional knowledge of complicated picture of surface oceanic layer hydrology. In this study we demonstrate different origin of appearance of quasistationary zones in the ocean. We can see that the border between quasi¬stationary zones is an indicator of the front between the Labrador Current and Gulfstream, other example of revealed pheno¬menon is a qua-sistationary area around of the British Isles that correlates with the relief of the oceanic bottom. Considering that the QSA maps are calculated almost for all surface of the Global ocean, not all QSA can be explained especially of small size. Although some small QSA are interesting. Also local QSA near estuaries of large rivers and large industrial centers, that can be result of a human impact. In sum satellite data is a powerful instrument for investigation of dynamic oceanic processes, their stability and unstability. The result of such study can be used for monitoring of long-term changes and their correlation of with climate dynamics.

  20. Prediction of hydrological responds to climate changes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Ren, L.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, M.; Liu, Y.; Jiang, S.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate changes have direct effects on hydrological cycle, with the increasing temperature and seasonal shift of precipitation. Therefore, understanding of how climate change may affect the population and water resources and economic development is critical to the water and food security for China. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate changes on water resources of the upper basin of Yangtze River (the area controlled by the Yichang hydrological station) using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model driven by composite observations (1961-2005) and projections of eight CMIP5 models under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The raw eight CMIP5 models have been downscaled by the equidistant cumulative distribution functions (EDCDF) statistical downscaling approach from 1961 to 2099. The assessment of the performance of model simulated precipitation and temperature were calculated by comparing to the observations during the historical period (1961-2005). For the same variables, eight CMIP5 models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 downscaled by EDCDF method were generated during the future period (2006-2099). Overall, the VIC model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) 0.92 and 0.97 for calibration and validation, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.3mm and 8.6mm per decade and the annual temperature will increase by 0.22 °C and 0.53°C per decade (2006-2099) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the future period, The total runoff of the study basins would either remain stable or moderately increase by 2.7% and 22.4% per decade, the evapotranspiration increase by 2mm and 13mm per decade, and the soil moisture will reduce by -0.1% and -7.4% per decade under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The changes of model-simulated soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration suggest that there probably be an increasing risk of drought in

  1. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  2. Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

    2011-12-01

    Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

  3. Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

  4. Climatic data for Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire : 1985

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturrock, Alex M.; Buso, D.C.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

    1988-01-01

    Research on the hydrology of Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire, includes a study of evaporation. Those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer evaporation studies are presented, including: water surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, vapor pressure at and above the water surface, wind speed, and short- and long-wave radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

  5. Climatic data for Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire, 1984

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturrock, A.M.; Buso, D.C.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

    1986-01-01

    Research on the hydrology of Mirror lake, (north-central) New Hampshire includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: temperature of lake water surface; dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures; wind speed at 3 levels above the water surface; and solar and atmospheric radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

  6. Climatic change due to land surface alterations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

  7. Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayzonee Ligaray

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003–2011. This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

  8. Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

  9. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2017-12-01

    During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

  10. Impact of the use of a CO2 responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queguiner, S.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Calvet, J.-C.; Faroux, S.; Quintana-Seguí, P.

    2011-10-01

    In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

  11. Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1983

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturrock, A.M.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Engelbrecht, L.G.; Gothard, W.A.; Winter, T.C.

    1984-01-01

    Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies,including: water-surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

  12. Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Silva, C. G.; Rigsby, C. A.; Absy, M. L.; Almeida, R. P.; Caputo, M.; Chiessi, C. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Dick, C. W.; Feakins, S. J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K. H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.; Kern, A. K.; Latrubesse, E. M.; Ledru, M. P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W. E.; Ramos, M. I. F.; Ribas, C. C.; Trnadade, R.; West, A. J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

  13. Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P.A.; Fritz, S.C.; Silva, C.G.; Rigsby, C.A.; Absy, M.L.; Almeida, R.P.; Caputo, Maria C.; Chiessi, C.M.; Cruz, F.W.; Dick, C.W.; Feakins, S.J.; Figueiredo, J.; Freeman, K.H.; Hoorn, C.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Kern, A.; Latrubesse, E.M.; Ledru, M.P.; Marzoli, A.; Myrbo, A.; Noren, A.; Piller, W.E.; Ramos, M.I.F.; Ribas, C.C.; Trinadade, R.; West, A.J.; Wahnfried, I.; Willard, Debra A.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.

  14. Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

    2012-12-01

    Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

  15. Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

  16. Storylines of socio-economic and climatic drivers for land use and their hydrological impacts in alpine catchments - the STELLA project example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Formayer, Herbert; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Meißl, Gertraud; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Friederike; Themessl, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    Future land use in Alpine catchments is controlled by the evolution of socio-economy and climate. Estimates of their coupled development should hence fulfill the principles of plausibility (be convincing) and consistency (be unambiguous). In the project STELLA, coupled future climate and land use scenarios are used as input in a hydrological modelling exercise with the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim of the project is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The so-called „storylines" of future coupled climate and forest/land use management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy have jointly been developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors. The climate background is given by simulations for the A1B (temperature conditions like today in Merano/Italy, 46.7°N) and RCP 8.5 (temperature conditions like today in Bologna/Italy, 44.5°N) emission scenarios. These two climate scenarios were combined with three potential socio-economic developments („local"/„glocal"/ „superglobal"), each in a positive and in a negative specification. From these twelve storylines of coupled climate/land use future, a set of four storylines was selected to be used in transient hydrological modelling experiments. Historical simulations of the water balance for the test site reveal the pattern of land use being the most prominent factor for the spatial distribution of its components. A new prototype for a snow-canopy interaction simulation module provides explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands in the catchment. This new canopy module will be used to model the coupled climate/land use future storylines for the Brixental. The aim is to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on the water

  17. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  18. Hydrology of a Water‐Limited Forest under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.

  19. Hydrologic regulation of plant rooting depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ying; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Jobbágy, Esteban G; Jackson, Robert B; Otero-Casal, Carlos

    2017-10-03

    Plant rooting depth affects ecosystem resilience to environmental stress such as drought. Deep roots connect deep soil/groundwater to the atmosphere, thus influencing the hydrologic cycle and climate. Deep roots enhance bedrock weathering, thus regulating the long-term carbon cycle. However, we know little about how deep roots go and why. Here, we present a global synthesis of 2,200 root observations of >1,000 species along biotic (life form, genus) and abiotic (precipitation, soil, drainage) gradients. Results reveal strong sensitivities of rooting depth to local soil water profiles determined by precipitation infiltration depth from the top (reflecting climate and soil), and groundwater table depth from below (reflecting topography-driven land drainage). In well-drained uplands, rooting depth follows infiltration depth; in waterlogged lowlands, roots stay shallow, avoiding oxygen stress below the water table; in between, high productivity and drought can send roots many meters down to the groundwater capillary fringe. This framework explains the contrasting rooting depths observed under the same climate for the same species but at distinct topographic positions. We assess the global significance of these hydrologic mechanisms by estimating root water-uptake depths using an inverse model, based on observed productivity and atmosphere, at 30″ (∼1-km) global grids to capture the topography critical to soil hydrology. The resulting patterns of plant rooting depth bear a strong topographic and hydrologic signature at landscape to global scales. They underscore a fundamental plant-water feedback pathway that may be critical to understanding plant-mediated global change.

  20. Hydrologic regulation of plant rooting depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Ying; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Jobbágy, Esteban G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Otero-Casal, Carlos

    2017-10-01

    Plant rooting depth affects ecosystem resilience to environmental stress such as drought. Deep roots connect deep soil/groundwater to the atmosphere, thus influencing the hydrologic cycle and climate. Deep roots enhance bedrock weathering, thus regulating the long-term carbon cycle. However, we know little about how deep roots go and why. Here, we present a global synthesis of 2,200 root observations of >1,000 species along biotic (life form, genus) and abiotic (precipitation, soil, drainage) gradients. Results reveal strong sensitivities of rooting depth to local soil water profiles determined by precipitation infiltration depth from the top (reflecting climate and soil), and groundwater table depth from below (reflecting topography-driven land drainage). In well-drained uplands, rooting depth follows infiltration depth; in waterlogged lowlands, roots stay shallow, avoiding oxygen stress below the water table; in between, high productivity and drought can send roots many meters down to the groundwater capillary fringe. This framework explains the contrasting rooting depths observed under the same climate for the same species but at distinct topographic positions. We assess the global significance of these hydrologic mechanisms by estimating root water-uptake depths using an inverse model, based on observed productivity and atmosphere, at 30″ (˜1-km) global grids to capture the topography critical to soil hydrology. The resulting patterns of plant rooting depth bear a strong topographic and hydrologic signature at landscape to global scales. They underscore a fundamental plant-water feedback pathway that may be critical to understanding plant-mediated global change.