WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate food limitation

  1. A cross-country analysis of climate shocks and smallholder food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niles, Meredith T; Salerno, Jonathan D

    2018-01-01

    Future climate changes will affect smallholder farmers in the developing world, posing threats to household food security. Nevertheless, there remains limited comparable evidence across multiple countries and regions regarding the global extent of climate shocks affecting smallholder food security. We examine data from 5,299 household surveys across 15 countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia to assess the extent of climate shocks and their association with food insecurity, as well as what strategies may help buffer against climate shocks. We find that 71% of households reported experiencing a climate shock in the previous five years. Fifty-four percent reported experiencing food insecurity during one or more months annually. A multilevel statistical model estimated factors correlated with food insecurity as well as factors correlated with food insecurity among households that had experienced a climate shock. Households that reported experiencing a climate shock were 1.73 times more likely to be food insecure. As well, larger and poorer households were associated with higher odds of food insecurity while using pesticides, keeping large livestock, and being more educated are associated with lower odds of food insecurity. Among households that had experienced a climate shock, additional factors are correlated with lower odds of food insecurity when compared to otherwise similar households: use of fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary medicines, large livestock, and household assets. Together, these results demonstrate the extent of existing climate shocks affecting smallholder farmers and how interventions may potentially support adaptation and reduce food insecurity.

  2. A cross-country analysis of climate shocks and smallholder food insecurity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meredith T Niles

    Full Text Available Future climate changes will affect smallholder farmers in the developing world, posing threats to household food security. Nevertheless, there remains limited comparable evidence across multiple countries and regions regarding the global extent of climate shocks affecting smallholder food security. We examine data from 5,299 household surveys across 15 countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia to assess the extent of climate shocks and their association with food insecurity, as well as what strategies may help buffer against climate shocks. We find that 71% of households reported experiencing a climate shock in the previous five years. Fifty-four percent reported experiencing food insecurity during one or more months annually. A multilevel statistical model estimated factors correlated with food insecurity as well as factors correlated with food insecurity among households that had experienced a climate shock. Households that reported experiencing a climate shock were 1.73 times more likely to be food insecure. As well, larger and poorer households were associated with higher odds of food insecurity while using pesticides, keeping large livestock, and being more educated are associated with lower odds of food insecurity. Among households that had experienced a climate shock, additional factors are correlated with lower odds of food insecurity when compared to otherwise similar households: use of fertilizers, pesticides, veterinary medicines, large livestock, and household assets. Together, these results demonstrate the extent of existing climate shocks affecting smallholder farmers and how interventions may potentially support adaptation and reduce food insecurity.

  3. Climate change and food security

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    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  4. Climate resilient crops for improving global food security and safety.

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    Dhankher, Om Parkash; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-05-01

    Food security and the protection of the environment are urgent issues for global society, particularly with the uncertainties of climate change. Changing climate is predicted to have a wide range of negative impacts on plant physiology metabolism, soil fertility and carbon sequestration, microbial activity and diversity that will limit plant growth and productivity, and ultimately food production. Ensuring global food security and food safety will require an intensive research effort across the food chain, starting with crop production and the nutritional quality of the food products. Much uncertainty remains concerning the resilience of plants, soils, and associated microbes to climate change. Intensive efforts are currently underway to improve crop yields with lower input requirements and enhance the sustainability of yield through improved biotic and abiotic stress tolerance traits. In addition, significant efforts are focused on gaining a better understanding of the root/soil interface and associated microbiomes, as well as enhancing soil properties. © 2018 The Authors Plant, Cell & Environment Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

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    Field, C. B.

    2011-12-01

    Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

  6. Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

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    de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

  7. Climate change impacts on global food security.

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    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  8. Moral intensity and climate-friendly food choices.

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    Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka

    2013-07-01

    By changing individual food consumption patterns, it might be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with climate change. The aim of the current study was to examine how perceptions of the moral intensity of climate change are related to climate friendly-food choices. The participants were 350 Finnish university students in the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The results indicated that moral perceptions mainly affected the moral evaluation and intentions to make climate-friendly food choices. We suggest that the results can be used to promote climate-friendly food choices, for example, by increasing the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative and by combining environmental motives with other relevant food choice motives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

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    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  10. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

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    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  11. Climate change impacts on food system

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    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  12. Climate-smart agriculture for food security

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    Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

  13. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

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    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  14. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

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    Yator, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

  15. Climate Change and Food In/Security: A Critical Nexus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Saidul Islam

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of climate change has been gaining widespread attention and concern as it has the ability to directly/indirectly affect our standard of living and quality of life. It has often been postulated that changes in climate would have a vast effect on food production systems and that food security might be threatened due to increasing climate change. However, it seems that research on climate change and food in/security has often been one-sided; with climate change being identified as the cause of food insecurity and not how the systems in place to ensure food security have exacerbated the issue of climate change. This paper thus seeks to give a more balanced view and thus understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and food security by critically examining both systems.

  16. Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

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    Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

    2013-06-01

    With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to

  17. Weather, Climate and Food Security

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    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  18. Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

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    Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in

  19. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  20. Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

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    Olumide D. Onafeso

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.

  1. Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential.

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    Boysen, Lena R; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter

    2017-10-01

    Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass-derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ̶ but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  3. Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

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    Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and

  4. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  5. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

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    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  6. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  7. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  8. Food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

    2012-01-01

    By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

  9. Climate variability and sustainable food production: Insights from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The past two decades have seen invigorated debates on the causal link between climate variability and food crop production. This study[1] extends the debate further by investigating how climate variability has affected the production of four specific food crops: maize, millet, rice, and groundnuts in north-eastern Ghana.

  10. Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Francis Gavin 512-471-6267 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) Standard Form 298 (Rev 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 - Climate Change, Global Food...Russia led then-President Dmitry Medvedev to impose export restrictions on wheat, barley, and rye . Food security is fundamental to human security. Prior...how much food is grown and where it is grown. Second, climate change will increase the frequency of localized crop failures due to more frequent

  11. The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beddington John R

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract To adapt to climate change and ensure food security, major interventions are required to transform current patterns and practices of food production, distribution and consumption. The scientific community has an essential role to play in informing concurrent, strategic investments to establish climate-resilient agricultural production systems, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, make efficient use of resources, develop low-waste supply chains, ensure adequate nutrition, encourage healthy eating choices and develop a global knowledge system for sustainability. This paper outlines scientific contributions that will be essential to the seven policy recommendations for achieving food security in the context of climate change put forward by the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change. These include improved understanding of agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change, food price dynamics, food waste and consumption patterns and monitoring technologies as well as multidisciplinary investigation of regionally appropriate responses to climate change and food security challenges.

  12. Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

  13. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  14. Will human populations be limited by food?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, S. G.

    2016-12-01

    Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, the Philippines, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-control a priority in development-aid. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in excess of 2, the population cannot grow if food is limiting. Without the agricultural advances of the 20thcentury, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000. The food supply may be enhanced in the future by genetic engineering and other innovations, but it may be limited by water shortage, climate change, pollution, and energy

  15. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  16. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  17. Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

    2009-01-01

    Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.

  18. Perceived Effect of Climate Variation on Food Crop Production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study objective is to determine the perception of food crop farmers in Oyo state to climate variation as it affects their production, because the relationship between climate variation and food security is direct and Oyo State has enormous potentials to make Nigeria food secure. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to ...

  19. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  20. Knowledge Mapping for Climate Change and Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C.; Höuser, Christoph; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Frechen, Tobias; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The authors extracted from the PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases all articles published between 1998 and 2009 that were relevant to climate change and food- and waterborne diseases. Any material within each article that provided information about a relevant pathogen and its relationship with climate and climate change was summarized as a key fact, entered into a relational knowledge base, and tagged with the terminology (predefined terms) used in the field. These terms were organized, quantified, and mapped according to predefined hierarchical categories. For noncholera Vibrio sp. and Cryptosporidium sp., data on climatic and environmental influences (52% and 49% of the total number of key facts, respectively) pertained to specific weather phenomena (as opposed to climate change phenomena) and environmental determinants, whereas information on the potential effects of food-related determinants that might be related to climate or climate change were virtually absent. This proportion was lower for the other pathogens studied (Campylobacter sp. 40%, Salmonella sp. 27%, Norovirus 25%, Listeria sp. 8%), but they all displayed a distinct concentration of information on general food-and water-related determinants or effects, albeit with little detail. Almost no information was available concerning the potential effects of changes in climatic variables on the pathogens evaluated, such as changes in air or water temperature, precipitation, humidity, UV radiation, wind, cloud coverage, sunshine hours, or seasonality. Frequency profiles revealed an abundance of data on weather and food-specific determinants, but also exposed extensive data deficiencies, particularly with regard to the potential effects of climate change on the pathogens evaluated. A reprioritization of public health research is warranted to ensure that funding is dedicated to explicitly studying the effects of changes in climate variables on food- and waterborne diseases. PMID:24771989

  1. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia ... Eleven world-class research teams set to improve livestock vaccine development and production to benefit farmers across the ... Building resilience through socially equitable climate action.

  2. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  3. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  4. Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the

  5. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  6. Food-borne disease and climate change in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R

    2017-12-05

    This review examined the likely impact of climate change upon food-borne disease in the UK using Campylobacter and Salmonella as example organisms. Campylobacter is an important food-borne disease and an increasing public health threat. There is a reasonable evidence base that the environment and weather play a role in its transmission to humans. However, uncertainty as to the precise mechanisms through which weather affects disease, make it difficult to assess the likely impact of climate change. There are strong positive associations between Salmonella cases and ambient temperature, and a clear understanding of the mechanisms behind this. However, because the incidence of Salmonella disease is declining in the UK, any climate change increases are likely to be small. For both Salmonella and Campylobacter the disease incidence is greatest in older adults and young children. There are many pathways through which climate change may affect food but only a few of these have been rigorously examined. This provides a high degree of uncertainty as to what the impacts of climate change will be. Food is highly controlled at the National and EU level. This provides the UK with resilience to climate change as well as potential to adapt to its consequences but it is unknown whether these are sufficient in the context of a changing climate.

  7. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  8. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

    2016-01-01

    Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  9. Soil fertility shapes belowground food webs across a regional climate gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberté, Etienne; Kardol, Paul; Didham, Raphael K; Teste, François P; Turner, Benjamin L; Wardle, David A

    2017-10-01

    Changes in soil fertility during pedogenesis affect the quantity and quality of resources entering the belowground subsystem. Climate governs pedogenesis, yet how climate modulates responses of soil food webs to soil ageing remains unexplored because of the paucity of appropriate model systems. We characterised soil food webs along each of four retrogressive soil chronosequences situated across a strong regional climate gradient to show that belowground communities are predominantly shaped by changes in fertility rather than climate. Basal consumers showed hump-shaped responses to soil ageing, which were propagated to higher-order consumers. There was a shift in dominance from bacterial to fungal energy channels with increasing soil age, while the root energy channel was most important in intermediate-aged soils. Our study highlights the overarching importance of soil fertility in regulating soil food webs, and indicates that belowground food webs will respond more strongly to shifts in soil resources than climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  10. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  11. Barriers to climate-friendly food choices among young adults in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to examine how young adults in Finland perceive barriers to climate-friendly food choices and how these barriers are associated with their choices. The participants were 350 university students of the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The study found that the barriers the participants perceived as being the most relevant were different from those that were associated with the omission of climate-friendly food choices. High prices were perceived as the most relevant barrier, but were only weakly associated with the participants' food choices. Instead, habit and disbelief in the effects of food consumption on the climate were found to be the barriers that had the greatest association with climate-friendly choices. Moreover, women considered high prices and poor supply more important compared to men, whereas men considered disbelief and habit more important. In addition, vegetarians perceived fewer barriers than those who followed other diets. The findings increase our understanding of young adults' perceptions of barriers to climate-friendly food choices, as well as their effects. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Declan; van Garderen, Emma Archer; Deryng, Delphine; Dorling, Steve; Krueger, Tobias; Landman, Willem; Lankford, Bruce; Lebek, Karen; Osborn, Tim; Ringler, Claudia; Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Dalin, Carole

    2015-09-01

    In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.

  13. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

  14. Climate limits across space and time on European forest structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limitted by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole

  15. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van Raamsdonk LWD.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides, and aflatoxin B1 (and its metabolite M1 in milk. The relationship between feed and food limits is an important issue. An ideal goal is to assure that compliance to a feed limits automatically results in compliance to food limits. In order to collect information about this relationship, several simulation models and a large database on transfer factors have been developed. An optimal choice between either a model or an application of data from the Transfer Database is based on both the knowledge level, and on the circumstances of the specific situation. To reach and validate such an optimal choice an Expert System Carry-Over is currently in development, containing four different modules: 1 the different calculation models and the Transfer Database, 2 a decision tree for choosing the optimal strategy, 3 data tables indicating knowledge levels of compound/animal/product parameters, and 4 supporting databases containing information on consumption and composition of daily diets, animal parameters, and amounts of (daily production. Calculations indicate that for dioxins compliance to feed levels does not necessarily mean that food limits are complied as well. Besides an estimation of the compliance to limits, the expert system is a tool for feed related risk assessments, and for planning of future research.

  16. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  17. Food irradiation, profits and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luna C, P.C.

    1992-05-01

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  18. Regional Farm Diversity Can Reduce Vulnerability of Food Production to Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.A.

    2008-01-01

    Food production must adapt in the face of climate change. In Europe, projected vulnerability of food production to climate change is particularly high in Mediterranean regions. Increasing agricultural diversity has been suggested as an adaptation strategy, but empirical evidence is lacking. We

  19. Climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, Cathrine

    1996-12-31

    This thesis relates to climate agreements and cost efficiency by analysing the formation of a system of quota leading to distributed discharge of emissions between countries. Main fields concerned are the greenhouse effect, the political process, efficient and cost-effective climate agreements, and climate agreements under limited participation, asymmetric information and market imperfections covering fields like limited participation in climate agreements, limited participation and indirect impact on non-participating countries` emissions, limited participation and direct impact on non-participating countries` emissions under asymmetric information, and non-competitive market for tradeable quotas. 166 refs., 7 tabs.

  20. Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

    2009-07-01

    There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

  1. Contributing to Food Security in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Since the laboratories of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications were established in Seibersdorf in 1962, the world’s population has grown from 3.14 billion to 7.15 billion, which, combined with continuously increasing industrialization and economic development, has led to greater global food demand. This has placed substantial stress on natural resources as well as the agricultural production chain. The challenges to food safety and security have also been amplified by the impacts of climate change, which have global ramifications, as noted in the March 2014 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change impacts include higher temperatures, drought, more frequent extreme weather events and increased soil salinity which can have severe effects on agricultural production. Helping Member States adapt to and mitigate these impacts is a main focus of the five laboratories of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture in Seibersdorf. These laboratories are dedicated to increasing food security and safety using nuclear science and technology

  2. Land Use Pattern, Climate Change, and Its Implication for Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While Ethiopia has always suffered from climatic variability like droughts and consequently food shortage and famine, climate change is set to make the lives of the poorest even harder. Climate change has the potential to adversely affect net farm revenues of small holders with increasing land fragmentation due to ...

  3. Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

  4. Effect of Climate Change on the Food Supply System: Implications ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change has become an issue of great concern in recent years due to its effect on every aspect of life. The ecosystem, agriculture, industry, households and human well-being are all intertwined with climate change issues. The food supply system worldwide has been affected and is also contributing to climate ...

  5. Perception of Climate Variability on Agriculture and Food Security by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    This paper focuses on how men and women farmers perceive climatic variability in Idanre ... Poor women and their ... Climate Change, Food Security and Poverty ..... 50. 8.3. Total. 180. 100. Marital status. Single. Married. Divorced. Widowed.

  6. Limits to ambulatory displacement of coconut mites in absence and presence of food-related cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, J W S; Lima, D B; Sabelis, M W; Pallini, A; Gondim, M G C

    2014-04-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also determined by the ability to orient and direct the path towards the food source location. For eriophyoid mites such limits are even more severe because they are among the smallest mites on earth, because they have only two pairs of legs and because they are very sensitive to desiccation. In this article we test how coconut mites (Aceria guerreronis Keifer) are constrained in their effective displacement by their ability to survive in absence of food (meristematic tissue under the coconut perianth) and by their ability to walk and orient in absence or presence of food-related cues. We found that the mean survival time decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing humidity. Under climatic conditions representative for the Tropics (27 °C and 75 % relative humidity) coconut mites survived on average for 11 h and covered 0.4 m, representing the effective linear displacement away from the origin. Within a period of 5 h, coconut mites collected from old fruits outside the perianth moved further away from the origin than mites collected under the perianth of young fruits. However, in the presence of food-related cues coconut mites traveled over 30 % larger distances than in absence of these cues. These results show that ambulatory movement of eriophyoid mites may well bring them to other coconuts within the same bunch and perhaps also to other bunches on the same coconut palm, but it is unlikely to help them move from palm to palm, given that palms usually do not touch each other.

  7. Adaptation and mitigation options to manage aflatoxin contamination in food with a climate change perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wambui, J. M.; Karuri, E. G.; Ojiambo, J. A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the impact of climate change remains vital for food safety and public health. Of particular importance is the influence of climatic conditions on the growth of Aspergillus flavus and production of their toxins. Nevertheless, little is known about the actual impact of climate change....... We used a systematic literature review of review and research articles, with limited searching but systematic screening to explore available qualitative and quantitative data. Projections from the data, showed that on average, a 58.9% increase of aflatoxin contamination in the Central and Western...... parts and a decrease of 44.6% in the Eastern and Southern parts is expected but with several possible scenarios. This makes the impact of climate change on aflatoxin contamination in Kenya complex. To protect the public and environment from the negative impact, a regulatory framework that allows...

  8. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased...

  9. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  10. Managing climatic risks for enhanced food security: Key information capabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balaghi, R.; Badjeck, M.C.; Bakari, D.; Pauw, de E.D.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Defourny, P.; Donato, S.; Gommes, R.; Jlibene, M.; Ravelo, A.C.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Telahigue, N.; Tychon, B.

    2010-01-01

    Food security is expected to face increasing challenges from climatic risks that are more and more exacerbated by climate change, especially in the developing world. This document lists some of the main capabilities that have been recently developed, especially in the area of operational

  11. Life-history variation of a neotropical thrush challenges food limitation theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, V.; Llambias, P.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2005-01-01

    Since David Lack first proposed that birds rear as many young as they can nourish, food limitation has been accepted as the primary explanation for variation in clutch size and other life-history traits in birds. The importance of food limitation in life-history variation, however, was recently questioned on theoretical grounds. Here, we show that clutch size differences between two populations of a neotropical thrush were contrary to expectations under Lack's food limitation hypothesis. Larger clutch sizes were found in a population with higher nestling starvation rate (i.e. greater food limitation). We experimentally equalized clutches between populations to verify this difference in food limitation. Our experiment confirmed greater food limitation in the population with larger mean clutch size. In addition, incubation bout length and nestling growth rate were also contrary to predictions of food limitation theory. Our results demonstrate the inability of food limitation to explain differences in several life-history traits: clutch size, incubation behaviour, parental feeding rate and nestling growth rate. These life-history traits were better explained by inter-population differences in nest predation rates. Food limitation may be less important to life history evolution in birds than suggested by traditional theory. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

  12. Compliance of feed limits, does not mean compliance of food limits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raamsdonk, van L.W.D.; Eijkeren, van J.C.H.; Meijer, G.A.L.; Rennen, M.; Zeilmaker, M.J.; Hoogenboom, L.A.P.; Mengelers, M.J.B.

    2009-01-01

    The carry-over of contaminants from feed to animal food products is an important aspect of the animal production chain. For a proper containment, limits for feed as well food products are fixed for a series of chemicals, e.g. dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs, lead, cadmium, some chlorinated pesticides,

  13. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of climate change and land use change on water resources and food security in Jordan. The country is dominated by arid climate with limited arable land and water resources, where the per capita share of water is less than 145 m3/year. The study focused on crop production and water resources under trends of anticipated climate change and population growth in the country. Remote sensing data were used to determine land use/cover changes and rates of urbanization, which took place at the cost of the cultivable land. Recession of irrigated areas led to lesser food production and food security. Outputs from crop production and water requirements models, in addition to regression analysis, were used to estimate the projected increase in agricultural water demand under the scenarios of increased air temperature and reduced rainfall by the years 2030 and 2050. Results indicated that problems of water scarcity and food insecurity would be exacerbated by climate change and increased population growth. To move from the tragedy of the commons towards transcendence, the study emphasized the need for adaptive measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on water resources and food security. The challenge, however, would remain the development and the efficient use of new water resources as a means for future sustainable development.

  14. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, S.; Rahman, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  15. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  16. Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobha Poudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study tried to understand the mountainous households’ perception of climate change and its impacts on food security in the Lamjung district of Nepal. The study attempted to find out changes in households food security and daily activities in the face of climate change for the last twenty years. The study started with the 150 household surveys along with participatory rural appraisal to understand the climate change perception of local people and its impact on dimensions of food security. Households expressed different levels of perception in terms of climate change on food security. The result shows that most of the mountainous households experienced increased temperature, less rainfall in winter, an increasing number of natural disasters and the emergence of insects for the last twenty years. They perceived the role of climate change in decreased crop production, decreased dairy products and increased household work. The situation of food security is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change in the future. It was also observed that households have been using different autonomous adaptation measures, such as high yielding crop varieties, enhanced irrigation systems and fertilizers, to cope with the changing climate. Finally, the study recommended policy instruments to enhance food security in the mountainous region amidst changing climate.

  17. Climate Change and Variability: Implications for Household Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These are drought, low annual rainfall, high temperature, and water shortage. The econometric model estimation result revealed the important factors determining household food security. These are household perception of climate change, use of soil and water conservation practices, use of livestock feed management ...

  18. Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in Western and Central Africa. ... Results show that the most prominent adaptation measures in Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Liberia were; processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses; increased weeding; mulching; increased manure application; ...

  19. Food irradiation: advantages and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandes, N.K.; Vital, H. de C.; Sabaa-Srur, A.U.O.

    2003-01-01

    Food irradiation is a physical method of processing food (e.g. freezing, canning). It has been thoroughly researched over the last four decades and is recognized as a safe and wholesome method. It has the potential both of disinfesting dried food to reduce storage losses and disinfesting fruits and vegetables to meet quarantine requirements for export trade. Low doses of irradiation inhibit spoilage losses due to sprouting of root and tuber crops. Food- borne diseases due to contamination by pathogenic microorganisms and parasites of meat, poultry, fish, fishery products and spices are on the increase. Irradiation of these solid foods can decontaminate them of pathogenic organisms and thus provide safe food to the consumer. Irradiation can successfully replace the fumigation treatment of cocoa beans and coffee beans and disinfest dried fish, dates, dried fruits, etc. One of the most important advantages of food irradiation processing is that it is a coldprocess which does not significantly alter physico-chemical characters of the treated product. It can be applied to food after its final packaging. Similar to other physical processes of food processing, (e.g. canning, freezing), irradiation is a capital intensive process. Thus, adequate product volume must be made available in order to maximize the use of the facility and minimize the unit cost of treatment. Lack of harmonization of regulations among the countries which have approved irradiated foods hampers the introduction of this technique for international trade. Action at the international level has to be taken in order to remedy this situation. One of the important limitations of food irradiation processing is its slow acceptance by consumers, due inter alia to a perceived association with radioactivity. The food industry tends to be reluctant to use the technology in view of uncertainties regarding consumer acceptance of treated foods. Several market testing and consumer acceptance studies have been carried

  20. Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguin, Charles

    Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not

  1. Availability of limited service food outlets surrounding schools in British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Jennifer L; Day, Meghan

    2012-06-05

    The purpose of this study was to provide a descriptive profile of the availability of limited service food outlets surrounding public schools in British Columbia, Canada. Data from the 2010 Canadian Business Data Files were used to identify limited service food outlets including fast food outlets, beverage and snack food stores, delis and convenience stores. The number of food outlets within 800 metres of 1,392 public schools and the distance from schools to the nearest food outlets were assessed. Multivariate regression models examined the associations between food outlet availability and school-level characteristics. In 2010, over half of the public schools in BC (54%) were located within a 10-12 minute walk from at least one limited service food outlet. The median closest distance to a food outlet was just over 1 km (1016 m). Schools comprised of students living in densely populated urban neighbourhoods and neighbourhoods characterized by lower socio-economic status were more likely to have access to limited service food outlets within walking distance. After adjusting for school-level median family income and population density, larger schools had higher odds of exposure to food vendors compared to schools with fewer students. The availability of and proximity to limited service food outlets vary widely across schools in British Columbia and school-level characteristics are significantly associated with food outlet availability. Additional research is needed to understand how food environment exposures inside and surrounding schools impact students' attitudes, food choices and dietary quality.

  2. The Roles of Seaweed on Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Product

    OpenAIRE

    A. Niarthiningsih; Wahyudin, Elly

    2013-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the potential role of seaweed in reducing global warming and climate change, contributing to food security and producing natural products. The role of seaweed on controlling climate change is through reducing carbon dioxide and converting seaweed into the bio fuel. The use of bio-fuel could reduce the traditional hydrocarbon as energy that produces carbon emission. Fresh and processed seaweed are commonly used as a food. This may contribute significantly to ...

  3. Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

    2017-04-01

    Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

    2007-01-01

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

  5. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  6. Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

  7. Food, Health and Climate Change Adaptation in Uganda | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... food security and human health in agriculture-based livelihood systems. ... in climate variability, and their direct and indirect impact on livelihood systems. ... of its 2017 call for proposals to establish Cyber Policy Centres in the Global South.

  8. Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ... those living in the Indus floodplains or on the edges of its deserts - received little attention. ... farmers' decision-making in water stressed regions, and the wider political and ...

  9. Will Transition of Staple Food Strategy in China Really Mitigate Global Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Zhao, D.

    2017-12-01

    With the increase in agricultural demand, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a vital challenge in mitigating climate change. Potato staple food strategy in China introduced by Ministry of Agriculture in 2015 is to gradually adjust staple food structure, which provides an opportunity to meet with the challenge. Apart from staple food structure, difference on energy, material input, geography, and crop management are essential to determine agriculture's contribution to climate change. In this study, we conduct a life cycle analysis of four staple foods in China, namely rice, wheat, maize, and potato, to develop crop-specific estimates of GHG emissions and GHG intensity by using `Production intensity' (carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per kilocalorie produced), to help us understand potential synergies and frictions between food producing and climate mitigation. Data used in this study is on city / province levels if city level is unavailable in 2015. First, we evaluate GHG reductions due to transition of staple food structure in China. Staple food GHG emissions in China are 546.90 Tg CO2e yr-1 in 2015, with 47.6%, 21.9%, 27.3% and 3.2% from rice, wheat, maize and potato. Mean production intensity of staple food is 0.45 Mg CO2e M kcal-1 in 2015. Maize leads the intensity with 0.77 Mg CO2e M kcal-1, followed by rice (0.49 Mg CO2e M kcal-1), wheat (0.28 Mg CO2e M kcal-1) and potato (0.24 Mg CO2e M kcal-1). After staple food structure adjustment, 25 Tg CO2e yr-1 (4.2%) reduction will be accomplished in 2020 without any crop management improvement. Further reduction (33.3% - 40.4%) could be achieved with crop management improvement. In addition, because of staple food structure switching, native rice production will decline, which might lead to more export from countries with higher production intensity. Estimated emission leakage from rice import is 30.10 Tg CO2e yr-1, exceeds emission reduction in native China. Therefore, potato staple food strategy could

  10. Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel

    2009-01-01

    West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

  11. Geospatial climate monitoring products: Tools for food security assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James Patrick

    Many of the 250 million people living in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure---they lack access at all times to enough food for an active and healthy life. Their vulnerability is due in large measure to highly variable climatic conditions and a dependence on rainfed agriculture. Famine, the most extreme food security emergency, is caused by crop failure due to bad weather, conflict, or both. Famine is a slow onset disaster, culminating after two or more bad growing seasons. After the disastrous African famines of the 1970s and 1980s, the U.S. established the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) to make the observations of climatic and socioeconomic variables needed for early detection of food security emergencies. Two geospatial climate monitoring products, rainfall estimate and vegetation index images derived from satellite data, are operationally used by FEWS analysts. This dissertation describes research to derive new products from them to reduce ambiguity and improve the link between early warning and early response. First, rainfall estimate images were used in a geospatial crop water accounting scheme. The resulting water requirement satisfaction index was used to estimate crop yield, and a correlation of 0.80 with conventional yield reports was obtained for the 1997 maize harvest in Zimbabwe. Thus, the agricultural significance of remotely sensed patterns of precipitation in time and space was made more clear. The second product tested was the expression of a seasonal climate forecast as a series of vegetation index anomaly images. Correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and vegetation index anomalies in Southern Africa were established and predictive relationships cross-validated. Using model forecast values of Pacific sea surface temperature from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January, February, and March, forecast images of vegetation index anomalies were prepared prior to the

  12. Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2010-01-01

    Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

  13. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  14. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ESSENTIAL ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION. A VIEW FROM FOOD SECURITY IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS MÉNDEZ NOTARI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This research has the objective of analyzing whether the public policies that today define the rules for productive development in agriculture can mitigate the effects related to global warming and if these are sufficient to prevent the pressing of climate change over the difficulties already existing in the agricultural sector or, to prevent the emergence of new risk factors or threats that affect the country’s food security. It also seeks to propose some recommendations for the design of public policies to minimize the risks and threats related to the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change and, therefore, to ensure physical, social and economic access to sufficient food and nutritious foods that meet the needs of the national population and mitigate its effects on the multidimensional sphere of the security. In this sense, we try to answer the following question: What challenges does climate change pose to Chilean agriculture in terms of food security?

  15. How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE. LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.

  16. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  17. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  18. America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the

  19. Climate change and its effect on world food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, W.O.

    1974-01-01

    In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatly increased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the world's peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie ahead for most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new 'little ice age'. Perhaps this future period will not be so extreme as that around 1700 AD, but it seems likely, at least, to be a cooler period resembling the hemispheric climatic regimes of the period from 1880-1920. (author)

  20. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haertel, Ines

    2014-01-01

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  1. Ultra-processed foods and the limits of product reformulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scrinis, Gyorgy; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto

    2018-01-01

    The nutritional reformulation of processed food and beverage products has been promoted as an important means of addressing the nutritional imbalances in contemporary dietary patterns. The focus of most reformulation policies is the reduction in quantities of nutrients-to-limit - Na, free sugars, SFA, trans-fatty acids and total energy. The present commentary examines the limitations of what we refer to as 'nutrients-to-limit reformulation' policies and practices, particularly when applied to ultra-processed foods and drink products. Beyond these nutrients-to-limit, there are a range of other potentially harmful processed and industrially produced ingredients used in the production of ultra-processed products that are not usually removed during reformulation. The sources of nutrients-to-limit in these products may be replaced with other highly processed ingredients and additives, rather than with whole or minimally processed foods. Reformulation policies may also legitimise current levels of consumption of ultra-processed products in high-income countries and increased levels of consumption in emerging markets in the global South.

  2. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the

  3. Climate alters intraspecific variation in copepod effect traits through pond food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charette, Cristina; Derry, Alison M

    2016-05-01

    Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are primarily generated by phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems, and can limit the growth, development, and reproduction of higher consumers. Among the most critical of the EFAs are highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), which are only produced by certain groups of phytoplankton. Changing environmental conditions can alter phytoplankton community and fatty acid composition and affect the HUFA content of higher trophic levels. Almost no research has addressed intraspecific variation in HUFAs in zooplankton, nor intraspecific relationships of HUFAs with body size and fecundity. This is despite that intraspecific variation in HUFAs can exceed interspecific variation and that intraspecific trait variation in body size and fecundity is increasingly recognized to have an important role in food web ecology (effect traits). Our study addressed the relative influences of abiotic selection and food web effects associated with climate change on intraspecific differences and interrelationships between HUFA content, body size, and fecundity of freshwater copepods. We applied structural equation modeling and regression analyses to intraspecific variation in a dominant calanoid copepod, Leptodiatomus minutus, among a series of shallow north-temperate ponds. Climate-driven diurnal temperature fluctuations favored the coexistence of diversity of phytoplankton groups with different temperature optima and nutritive quality. This resulted in unexpected positive relationships between temperature, copepod DHA content and body size. Temperature correlated positively with diatom biovolume, and mediated relationships between copepod HUFA content and body size, and between copepod body size and fecundity. The presence of brook trout further accentuated these positive effects in warm ponds, likely through nutrient cycling and stimulation of phytoplankton resources. Climate change may have previously unrecognized positive effects on freshwater copepod DHA content

  4. Climate, migration, and the local food security context: Introducing Terra Populus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlak, Allison M.; Kugler, Tracy A.

    2016-01-01

    Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population-environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate-migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments. PMID:27974863

  5. Food web structure shaped by habitat size and climate across a latitudinal gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Gustavo Q; Piccoli, Gustavo C O; de Omena, Paula M; Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago

    2016-10-01

    Habitat size and climate are known to affect the trophic structure and dynamics of communities, but their interactive effects are poorly understood. Organisms from different trophic levels vary in terms of metabolic requirements and heat dissipation. Indeed, larger species such as keystone predators require more stable climatic conditions than their prey. Likewise, habitat size disproportionally affects large-sized predators, which require larger home ranges and are thus restricted to larger habitats. Therefore, food web structure in patchy ecosystems is expected to be shaped by habitat size and climate variations. Here we investigate this prediction using natural aquatic microcosm (bromeliad phytotelmata) food webs composed of litter resources (mainly detritus), detritivores, mesopredators, and top predators (damselflies). We surveyed 240 bromeliads of varying sizes (water retention capacity) across 12 open restingas in SE Brazil spread across a wide range of tropical latitudes (-12.6° to -27.6°, ca. 2,000 km) and climates (Δ mean annual temperature = 5.3°C). We found a strong increase in predator-to-detritivore mass ratio with habitat size, which was representative of a typical inverted trophic pyramid in larger ecosystems. However, this relationship was contingent among the restingas; slopes of linear models were steeper in more stable and favorable climates, leading to inverted trophic pyramids (and top-down control) being more pronounced in environments with more favorable climatic conditions. By contrast, detritivore-resource and mesopredator-detritivore mass ratios were not affected by habitat size or climate variations across latitudes. Our results highlight that the combined effects of habitat size, climate and predator composition are pivotal to understanding the impacts of multiple environmental factors on food web structure and dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nenzén, Hedvig K; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

    2014-01-01

    Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  7. The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedvig K Nenzén

    Full Text Available Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

  8. Effects of climate on size structure and functioning of aquatic food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lacerot, G.

    2010-01-01

    In aquatic food webs, the role of body size is notoriously strong. It is also well known that temperature has an effect on body size. For instance, Bergmann’s rule states that body size increases from warm to cold climates. This thesis addresses the question how climate shapes the size structure of

  9. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Daniel M; Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C; Chambers, Molly C

    2007-01-01

    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  10. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

    2010-09-01

    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  11. Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

    2012-11-01

    In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

  12. Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Scott

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others, while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.

  13. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  14. Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2014-07-01

    Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

  15. Foods to Avoid or Limit during Pregnancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Global Map Premature Birth Report Cards Careers Archives Pregnancy Before or between pregnancies Nutrition, weight & fitness Prenatal ... during pregnancy Foods to avoid or limit during pregnancy E-mail to a friend Please fill in ...

  16. The Empowerment Strategy for The Food Crop Farmers in Anticipating The Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efriyani Sumastuti

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In Indonesia, the climate change and the global warming like changes in the pattern and distribution of the rainfall give impacts on agricultural production at large, especially in the food crops. These also cause droughts, floods, landslides, forest fires, rising temperatures in urban areas, and rising sea levels. The above impacts are felt by the farmers because those can lead to a decrease in production even the crop failure. This research aims to develop an empowerment strategy of the food crop farmers in anticipating the climate change in Central Java. The data used is the primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with key-person and the Focus Group Discussion (FGD. The Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP is conducted to determine the program priorities and strate gies. The result of research shows that anticipating the climate change should be synergistically conducted in four aspects: human resources, technology, institutional and production, by involving various groups in the society. Various groups can be grouped into academics, businessmen / private sectors, government and community of food crop farmers / society.

  17. Effects of climate change on food safety hazards in the dairy production chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiegel, van der M.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of climate change on emerging food safety hazards in the dairy production chain. For this purpose, a holistic approach was used to select critical factors from inside and outside the production chain that are affected by climatic factors. An expert

  18. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF FOOD SECTOR AND LIMITATIONS OF FOOD LOSSES AND ITS WASTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Bilska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Globally is wasted about one third of total food produced per year. The losses are borne along the entire food chain from “farm to fork”. The phenomenon requires an analysis and monitoring of the impact due to continuous development of food sector. Food losses and its waste have an impact on the sustainability of food systems in all three dimensions: economic, social and environmental. Irrational use of food beyond the amount of losses, is a threat to our environment because of excessive consumption of natural resources and is a causes of unmet nutritional needs of societies. The aim of the study was to determine the causes of losses and wastage in the food chain and categorization as well as taking into account recovery capabilities. As follows from the analysis presented in the work some of the reasons for food losses and waste are well known, possible limitations. Therefore, we should seek ways of recovering of food products and using them as intended. One way may be the transfer of food for social purposes, which also affects the sustainability of development in this sector due to social aspects.

  19. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2007-03-15

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

  20. A Multi-Scale Energy Food Systems Modeling Framework For Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, S.; Bakker, C.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Hobbs, B. F.; Broaddus, E.; Neff, R.; Haskett, J.; Parker, C.

    2016-12-01

    Our goal is to understand coupled system dynamics across scales in a manner that allows us to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes (nutritional satisfaction, household economic well-being) to development strategies and to climate or market induced shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. We adopt both bottom-up and top-down multi-scale modeling approaches focusing our efforts on food, energy, water (FEW) dynamics to define, parameterize, and evaluate modeled processes nationally as well as across climate zones and communities. Our framework comprises three complementary modeling techniques spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture interdependencies between sectors, across time scales, and on multiple levels of geographic aggregation. At the center is a multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial equilibrium model for the production, consumption, storage, and transportation of food, energy, and fuels, which is the focus of this presentation. We show why such models can be very useful for linking and integrating across time and spatial scales, as well as a wide variety of models including an agent-based model applied to rural villages and larger population centers, an optimization-based electricity infrastructure model at a regional scale, and a computable general equilibrium model, which is applied to understand FEW resources and economic patterns at national scale. The MME is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players in an energy, electricity, or food market and captures important food supply chain components of trade and food distribution accounting for infrastructure and geography. Second, our model considers food access and utilization by modeling food waste and disaggregating consumption by income and age. Third, the model is set up to evaluate the effects of seasonality and system shocks on supply, demand, infrastructure, and transportation in both energy and food.

  1. Limiting values for radioactive materials in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steiner, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The contribution describes the fundamentals of radiation protection: LNT (linear, no threshold) hypotheses, ALARA (a slow as reasonably achievable), limiting values. Using the example the nuclear accident in Chernobyl the differences in contamination development in different foodstuffs in Germany is demonstrated including recommended limiting values and the radiation exposures after 30 years due to consumption of contaminated food. The natural radioactivity is about 0.3 mSv/year.

  2. Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change by Food Crop Farmers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... constraints to farmers adaptation strategies. Inputs supply to the local farmers should also come with government subsidy. This will go a long way in alleviating the sufferings of the farmers, as regards inadequate supply and delivery of agricultural inputs. Key words: Adaptation, Strategies, Climate, Change, Food, Crop,

  3. Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

    2017-12-05

    We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  4. Juvenile food limitation in standard tests: a warning to ecotoxicologists.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zimmer, E.I.; Jager, T.; Ducrot, V.; Kooijman, S.A.L.M.

    2012-01-01

    Standard ecotoxicological tests are as simple as possible and food sources are mainly chosen for practical reasons. Since some organisms change their food preferences during the life-cycle, they might be food limited at some stage if we do not account for such a switch. As organisms tend to respond

  5. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Given the country's dependence on agriculture and natural resources, tackling climate change and food security together is essential. ... L'honorable Chrystia Freeland, ministre du Commerce international, a annoncé le lancement d'un nouveau projet financé par le Centre de recherches pour le développement international ...

  6. Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

    KAUST Repository

    Hickey, Sharyn M.

    2017-02-01

    Ecological (poleward) regime shifts are a predicted response to climate change and have been well documented in terrestrial and more recently ocean species. Coastal zones are amongst the most susceptible ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, yet studies particularly focused on mangroves are lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the critical ecosystem services mangroves provide, yet there is a lack of data on temporal global population response. This study tests the notion that mangroves are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent of the mangrove population. Our findings indicate that whilst temperature (land and air) have both increased across the analysed time periods, the data we located showed that mangroves were not consistently extending their latitudinal range across the globe. Mangroves, unlike other marine and terrestrial taxa, do not appear to be experiencing a poleward range expansion despite warming occurring at the present distributional limits. Understanding failure for mangroves to realise the global expansion facilitated by climate warming may require a focus on local constraints, including local anthropogenic pressures and impacts, oceanographic, hydrological, and topographical conditions.

  7. The role of grasslands in food security and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, F P

    2012-11-01

    Grasslands are a major part of the global ecosystem, covering 37 % of the earth's terrestrial area. For a variety of reasons, mostly related to overgrazing and the resulting problems of soil erosion and weed encroachment, many of the world's natural grasslands are in poor condition and showing signs of degradation. This review examines their contribution to global food supply and to combating climate change. Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security through providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production. Globally, this is more important in food energy terms than pig meat and poultry meat. Grasslands are considered to have the potential to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation, particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. It is estimated that grazing land management and pasture improvement (e.g. through managing grazing intensity, improved productivity, etc) have a global technical mitigation potential of almost 1·5 Gt CO(2) equivalent in 2030, with additional mitigation possible from restoration of degraded lands. Milk and meat production from grassland systems in temperate regions has similar emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of product as mixed farming systems in temperate regions, and, if carbon sinks in grasslands are taken into account, grassland-based production systems can be as efficient as high-input systems from a greenhouse gas perspective. Grasslands are important for global food supply, contributing to ruminant milk and meat production. Extra food will need to come from the world's existing agricultural land base (including grasslands) as the total area of agricultural land has remained static since 1991. Ruminants are efficient converters of grass into humanly edible energy and protein and grassland-based food production can produce food with a comparable carbon footprint as mixed systems. Grasslands are a very important store of carbon, and

  8. Rising oceans, climate change, food aid, and human rights in the Marshall Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlgren, Ingrid; Yamada, Seiji; Wong, Allen

    2014-01-01

    Climate change impacts are expected to produce more frequent, longer and unpredictable drought periods with further saltwater intrusion in the Marshall Islands. As a result, a significant return to traditional food cropping is unlikely. This will lead to an increased dependence on food aid, especially in the outer atoll populations. An examination of the nutritional content of food aid suggests it is likely to lead to poor health outcomes. Dependence on food aid has gradually increased over the past 70 years in the Marshall Islands, starting with population relocation because of war and nuclear testing and most recently because of climate change. The authors argue that the health impacts of the supplemental imported diet, combined with migration to population centers, may result in an even greater prevalence of chronic diseases, and exert pressures that lead to more communicable disease, further exacerbating the syndemics in the Marshall Islands. The authors conclude that food aid donors and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) government have human rights obligations to ensure that the people in the Marshall Islands have access to adequate nutrition. Accordingly, donors and the government should re-examine the content of food and ensure it is of sufficient quality to meet the right to health obligations.

  9. Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Ruhul Amin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC and feasible generalized least square (FGLS methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops and flood (particularly Aman

  10. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A; Sjaastad, Espen Olav; Theisen, Ole Magnus

    2015-01-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect...

  11. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2011-01-01

    It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... cultivation and cattle farming, probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period, northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation, irrespective of cattle density, but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed...

  12. Introducing integrated food-energy systems that work for people and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdanski, Anne [Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy)

    2011-07-01

    Bioenergy can be part of the implementation of climate-smart agricultural development. However, it is crucial to develop bioenergy operations in ways that mitigate risks and harness benefits. Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES) can play an important role in doing so. (orig.)

  13. The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic

    2015-05-01

    This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

  14. The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

  15. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  16. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  17. Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhaug, Halvard; Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Sjaastad, Espen; Magnus Theisen, Ole

    2015-12-01

    Earlier research that reports a correlational pattern between climate anomalies and violent conflict routinely refers to drought-induced agricultural shocks and adverse economic spillover effects as a key causal mechanism linking the two phenomena. Comparing half a century of statistics on climate variability, food production, and political violence across Sub-Saharan Africa, this study offers the most precise and theoretically consistent empirical assessment to date of the purported indirect relationship. The analysis reveals a robust link between weather patterns and food production where more rainfall generally is associated with higher yields. However, the second step in the causal model is not supported; agricultural output and violent conflict are only weakly and inconsistently connected, even in the specific contexts where production shocks are believed to have particularly devastating social consequences. Although this null result could, in theory, be fully compatible with recent reports of food price-related riots, it suggests that the wider socioeconomic and political context is much more important than drought and crop failures in explaining violent conflict in contemporary Africa.

  18. Food Poverty, Climate Change and Land Access in central Uganda: A focus on low-income women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nambuanyi, Lekunze Ransom

    climate change impacts in Uganda have affected women’s livelihoods and food security; the constraints that exacerbate women’s vulnerability to food insecurity; and their adaptive capacity to mitigate these impacts. These findings will serve as a catalyst for the larger project that will generate......Abstract: This concept paper presents part of a work in progress on a participatory action research project that seeks to investigate the interrelated effects of climate change, agricultural practices and land tenure systems on women’s food security in central Uganda. We examine policy implications...... of food insecurity among low-income women (farmers) in central Uganda, positing the view that the agricultural and livelihood choices women farmers make are subject to the constraints they face and the policy alternatives available for them. Uganda is burdened with rising poverty, malnutrition and food...

  19. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  20. Linkages among Key Actors in the Climate Change and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sierra Leone and Liberia, but a low linkage index of less than 2 between farmers and policy making bodies for all the countries. Poor generation of innovations over the past ten years and poor domestic support for climate change adaptation and food security in the West African sub-region were identified. The study points to ...

  1. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  2. Is Climate Change Shifting the Poleward Limit of Mangroves?

    KAUST Repository

    Hickey, Sharyn M.; Phinn, Stuart R.; Callow, Nik J.; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Hansen, Jeff E.; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    are migrating poleward at their biogeographical limits across the globe in line with climate change. A coupled systematic approach utilising literature and land surface and air temperature data was used to determine and validate the global poleward extent

  3. Perceived effects of climate change on food crops production in Oyo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study assessed the perceived effects of climate change on food crops production in Oyo State. Multi stage sampling procedure was used in selecting 120 respondents for the study. Primary data was collected through interview schedule and it was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Results reveal ...

  4. Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian J Das

    Full Text Available Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1 drought stress, or (2 the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

  5. Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amikuzuno, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

  6. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niiranen, S.; Yletyinen, J.; Tomczak, M.T.

    2013-01-01

    approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional...... biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future......Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed...

  7. Climate Change, the Energy-water-food Nexus, and the "New" Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, R. S.; Bennett, K. E.; Solander, K.; Hopkins, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change, extremes, and climate-driven disturbances are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources, particularly in the western and southwestern United States. These unprecedented conditions—a no-analog future—will result in challenges to adaptation, mitigation, and resilience planning for the energy-water-food nexus. We have analyzed the impact of climate change on Colorado River flows for multiple climate and disturbance scenarios: 12 global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Coupled Model Intercomparison Study, version 5, and multiple climate-driven forest disturbance scenarios including temperature-drought vegetation mortality and insect infestations. Results indicate a wide range of potential streamflow projections and the potential emergence of a "new" Colorado River basin. Overall, annual streamflow tends to increase under the majority of modeled scenarios due to projected increases in precipitation across the basin, though a significant number of scenarios indicate moderate and potentially substantial reductions in water availability. However, all scenarios indicate severe changes in seasonality of flows and strong variability across headwater systems. This leads to increased fall and winter streamflow, strong reductions in spring and summer flows, and a shift towards earlier snowmelt timing. These impacts are further exacerbated in headwater systems, which are key to driving Colorado River streamflow and hence water supply for both internal and external basin needs. These results shed a new and important slant on the Colorado River basin, where an emergent streamflow pattern may result in difficulties to adjust to these new regimes, resulting in increased stress to the energy-water-food nexus.

  8. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  9. Linking human health, climate change, and food security through ecological-based sanitation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.

    2015-12-01

    Ensuring access to clean, safe sanitation for the world's population remains a challenging, yet critical, global sustainability goal. Ecological-based sanitation (EcoSan) technology is a promising strategy for improving sanitation, particularly in areas where financial resources and infrastructure are limiting. The composting of human waste and its use as an agricultural soil amendment can tackle three important challenges in developing countries - providing improved sanitation for vulnerable communities, reducing the spread of intestinal-born pathogens, and returning nutrients and organic matter to degraded agricultural soils. The extent of these benefits and potential tradeoffs are not well known, but have important implications for the widespread adoption of this strategy to promote healthy communities and enhance food security. We quantified the effects of EcoSan on the climate and human health in partnership with Sustainable Organic Integrated Livelihoods (SOIL) in Haiti. We measured greenhouse gas emissions (nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide) from compost piles that ranged in age from 0 to 14 months (i.e. finished) from two compost facilities managed with or without cement lining. We also measured emissions from a government-operated waste treatment pond and a grass field where waste has been illegally dumped. The highest methane emissions were observed from the anaerobic waste pond, whereas the dump site and compost piles had higher nitrous oxide emissions. Net greenhouse gases (CO2-equivalents) from unlined compost piles were 8x lower than lined compost piles and 20 and 30x lower than the dump and waste pond, respectively. We screened finished compost for fecal pathogens using bacterial 16S sequencing. Bacterial pathogens were eliminated regardless of the type of composting process. Pilot trials indicate that the application of compost to crops has a large potential for increasing food production. This research suggests that EcoSan systems are

  10. The Water – Energy – Food Nexus and Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holtermann Talin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This report explores the exposure and vulnerability of Korea and the Southern African region to climate-driven impacts in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF nexus. It presents the building of ecological networks as a mean to address climate change - induced alterations of ecosystems and the consequences for humans and nature. Reducing the asymmetry between price and value of water resources is identified as an essential aspect to enable sound resource management use decisions. The report highlights the need for comprehensive tools which assist decision makers in dealing with the complexity of WEF nexus interrelations and facilitate sustainable resource management.

  11. The intersection of climate/environment, food, nutrition and health: crisis and opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raiten, Daniel J; Aimone, Ashley M

    2017-04-01

    Climate/environmental change (C-E-C) is affecting human health and quality of life. Significant attention has been given to the impact of C-E-C on food supply, and food as a vehicle for exposure. However, C-E-C has been superimposed on prevalent malnutrition, infectious and non-communicable diseases. We discuss why nutrition is not synonymous with food and must be viewed as a biological variable that affects and is affected by both C-E-C as well as the current global health challenges. The nexus of C-E-C, food, nutrition and health must be considered in the development of safe and efficacious interventions. A case is presented for how the convergence of C-E-C, food/nutrition and health, presents an opportunity for more integrated approaches to achieve global health goals. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  13. Functional limitation and chronic diseases are associated with food insecurity among U.S. adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venci, Brittany J; Lee, Seung-Yeon

    2018-03-01

    This study examined associations of functional limitation due to any health problems and six chronic diseases (arthritis, diabetes, coronary heart disease, heart attack, hypertension, and stroke) with food security among U.S. adults. The 2011 National Health Interview Survey data for 30,010 adults (≥18 years) were used. Adults were categorized into food secure, low food secure, or very low food secure. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for having functional limitation and chronic diseases while adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. The prevalence of functional limitation and the chronic diseases were higher in low-food-secure and very low-food-secure than food-secure adults. The adjusted ORs were significant in both low food secure and very low food secure, respectively, for functional limitation (OR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.63, 2.14), (OR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.91, 2.52), inflammatory diseases or joint/muscular pain (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.68), (OR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.49, 2.04), diabetes (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.51), (OR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.48), and hypertension (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.35), (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65) when compared with food-secure adults. Findings indicate that food insecurity is associated with functional limitation and chronic diseases, whereas directionality is unknown. Besides the traditional food assistance program for food-insecure populations, interventions to prevent or manage chronic diseases may be necessary to help them reduce the risk of the diseases and manage their conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Limits to Ambulatory Displacement of Coconut Mites in Absence and Presence of Food-Related Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melo, J.W.S.; Lima, D.B.; Sabelis, M.W.; Pallini, A.; Gondim Jr., M.G.C.

    2014-01-01

    Ambulatory movement of plant-feeding mites sets limits to the distances they can cover to reach a new food source. In absence of food-related cues these limits are determined by survival, walking activity, walking path tortuosity and walking speed, whereas in presence of food the limits are also

  15. Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn; Andersen, Laura Mørch; Christensen, Tove

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evidence for a positive correlation between increased consumption of organic products and potential climate change mitigation via decreased consumption of meat and it is discussed to what extent organic consumption is motivated by climate...... and household heating are perceived as more important strategies. Research limitations/implications – Other food-related mitigation strategies could be investigated. The climate effect of different diets – and how to motivate consumers to pursue them – could be investigated. Individual as opposed to household...... consumers. As some consumers believe that climate change can be mitigated by consuming organic food, the authors propose that this is taken into account in the development of organic farming. Originality/value – The authors propose a shift from analysing the climate-friendliness of production to addressing...

  16. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Agroforestry solutions to address climate change and food security challenges in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mbow, C.; Neufeldt, H.; Noordwijk, van M.; Minang, P.A.; Kowero, G.; Luedeling, E.

    2014-01-01

    Trees inside and outside forests contribute to food security in Africa in the face of climate variability and change. They also provide environmental and social benefits as part of farming livelihoods. Varied ecological and socio-economic conditions have given rise to specific forms of agroforestry

  18. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient...

  19. Modelling cereal crops to assess future climate risk for family food self-sufficiency in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Traore, Bouba; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Wijk, van Mark T.; Corbeels, Marc; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E.

    2017-01-01

    Future climate change will have far reaching consequences for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of whom depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Here we assessed the farm-level impact of climate change on family food self-sufficiency and evaluated potential adaptation

  20. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Naustvoll, L-J

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal...... on food safety hazards, rather than median or average values only. Furthermore, it is recommended to closely monitor levels of mycotoxins and marine biotoxins in the future, in particular related to risky situations associated with favourable climatic conditions for toxin producing organisms...

  1. Food Insecurity and Perceived Diet Quality Among Low-Income Older Americans with Functional Limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yunhee; Hickman, Haley

    2018-05-01

    To evaluate how functional limitations are associated with food insecurity and perceived diet quality in low-income older Americans. Nationwide repeated cross-sectional surveys regarding health and nutritional status. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012. Individuals aged ≥65 years with household incomes ≤130% of the federal poverty level (n = 1,323). Dependent variables included dichotomous indicators of food insecurity and poor-quality diet, measured with the household food security survey module and respondents' own ratings, respectively. Independent variable was presence of limitations in physical functioning. Weighted logistic regressions with nested controls and interaction terms. Functional limitations in low-income older adults were associated with 1.69 times higher odds of food insecurity (P food insecurity; 3.07 for poor-quality diet; P functional limitations are exposed to significant nutritional risk. Resources should be directed to facilitating their physical access to healthful foods. Copyright © 2017 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  3. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  4. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  5. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  6. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  7. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  8. Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

  9. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  10. On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

    2016-04-01

    Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

  11. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  12. Food irradiation, profits and limitations; Irradiacion de alimentos, beneficios y limitaciones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luna C, P C

    1992-05-15

    The utility of the irradiation to overcome diverse problems of lost nutritious, it has been demonstrated in multiple investigation works, that its have confirmed the value and the inoculation of the irradiated foods. The quantity of energy applied to each food, is in function of the wanted effect. In this document a guide with respect to the practical application and the utility of the irradiation process in different foods, as well as the suggested dose average is shown. Among the limitations of the use of this technology, its are the costs and not being able to apply it to some fresh foods. (Author)

  13. Functional food availability, a limitation to peoples’ health on Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Ndungu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Background:All foods are imported to markets in smaller islands in the Caribbean. Before export of foods to these destinations, the foods are subjected to several preservative procedures like irradiation, pesticide spray and prolonged refrigeration etc., to last the extended transport periods. This reduces availability of protective elements and the nutrient contents of the foods to scanty levels,especially to common people with low and middle incomes. Hence the majority of people in these categories on the small islands become vulnerable to ill health. Aims and Objectives: To assess 1. Food availability 2. Normal transport period for foods to reach from the suppliers, and 3. Current level of prevalence of non-infective chronic diseases in the area. Methods: Data were collected from two sources. One set of data was collected from the three supermarkets on the island to obtain information on source, transport time and nature of foods imported; and the second from 200 randomly selected responses of diseased persons for information on the age, gender and cause of death. Results: All the foods were imported and the time taken for the food (including protective foods to reach the island was about 3 weeks. The major causes of death were malignancy (30%, diabetes and its complications (25%, cardio vascular diseases (19.5%, STD / HIV (8.5% and other causes (17.0%. A review of prevalence of chronic diseases like hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases, arthritis and associated functional limitations, in the region reveals that their prevalence is proportionately high on the island compared to nearby developed mainland Functional Foods in Health and Disease 2011; 7:222-231 regions. Body mass index of ≥25 was reported to be as high as 58.3%. The health care facilitiesavailable are seen to be limited and public health activity to prevent or manage the prevailing chronic health issues, appeared to be meager. Conclusion: There is a need to address the

  14. FOOD SECURITY IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu STANCIU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing world population, the limitation of the natural availability for food production, the climate issues and the food consumption need for modification imposed a continuous updating of the food security concept. Although Romania has sufficient natural resources, which may ensure, by means of proper exploitation, the population’s food needs, the lack of a unitary approach at the government level, materialized in the dependence on imports and in fluctuations in the agro-food production, leads to a re-evaluation of national food needs. National food security may be affected by a series of risks and threats, which appeared due to an imbalance connected with the availability, the utility and the stability of the agro-food sector, interdependent elements that must be functional. The present article proposes an analysis of food security in Romania, with a short presentation of the concept in an international context.

  15. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-01-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously dominated by grassland or cropland can dramatically alter the energy and water balances at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts and growing extremes due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. We investigated some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of forests and potential impacts of climate change at the dryland margins of the temperate-continental zone using case studies from China, the United States and SE Europe (Hungary). We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effects of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of forestation on water resources might be negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events is likely to reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest management and forestation planning should be adjusted to the local, projected hydrologic and climatic conditions, and should also consider non-forest alternative land uses. (paper)

  16. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  17. Forests in a water limited world under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Mátyás; G. Sun

    2014-01-01

    The debate on ecological and climatic benefits of planted forests at the sensitive dry edge of the closed forest belt (i.e. at the ‘xeric limits’) is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, accumulate biomass, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously...

  18. Derivation of recommended limits for radionuclide contamination of foods by the FAO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirth, E.; Mueller, M.K.

    1986-01-01

    As a consequence of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, USSR, various countries defined limits for radioactive contamination of foods at different levels. These limits ranged from a few Bq iodine 131 or cesium 134 + 137/kg (Malaysia and Canada) to more than 1000 Bq/kg (Great Britain and France). These variations in limits hindered the movement of foods in international trade. For this reason the FAO convened an Expert Consultation to derive 'action levels' below which neither intervention nor constraint would be justified in terms of international movement and trade in food and drink. These limits are to find application in cases of widespread environmental contamination after an accidental release of radionuclides. They are not to be applied in cases of local release, e.g. in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. The derivation of 'action levels' by the FAO was based on the recommendations issued by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) in May 1985. According to this recommendation the committed dose equivalent for the whole body should not exceed 5 mSv in the first and 1 mSv in the consecutive years. For radionuclides that preferentially irradiate individual organs, e.g. I131 in the thyroid, the dose equivalent to a specified organ may be used to derive limiting values. For individual organs limiting doses of 50 mSv/a and 10 mSv/a respectively were chosen

  19. Derivation of recommended limits for radionuclide contamination of foods by the FAO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirth, E; Mueller, M K [Institute for Radiation Hygiene, Federal Health Office, Neuherberg (Germany)

    1986-07-01

    As a consequence of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, USSR, various countries defined limits for radioactive contamination of foods at different levels. These limits ranged from a few Bq iodine 131 or cesium 134 + 137/kg (Malaysia and Canada) to more than 1000 Bq/kg (Great Britain and France). These variations in limits hindered the movement of foods in international trade. For this reason the FAO convened an Expert Consultation to derive 'action levels' below which neither intervention nor constraint would be justified in terms of international movement and trade in food and drink. These limits are to find application in cases of widespread environmental contamination after an accidental release of radionuclides. They are not to be applied in cases of local release, e.g. in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. The derivation of 'action levels' by the FAO was based on the recommendations issued by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) in May 1985. According to this recommendation the committed dose equivalent for the whole body should not exceed 5 mSv in the first and 1 mSv in the consecutive years. For radionuclides that preferentially irradiate individual organs, e.g. I131 in the thyroid, the dose equivalent to a specified organ may be used to derive limiting values. For individual organs limiting doses of 50 mSv/a and 10 mSv/a respectively were chosen.

  20. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  1. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  2. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Adger, W Neil; Barnett, Jon; Perry, Allison L; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  3. Potentials and Limitations of Regional Organic Food Supply: A Qualitative Analysis of Two Food Chain Types in the Berlin Metropolitan Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Doernberg

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Regional food systems and organic agriculture are both considered more sustainable than the conventional, globalized food system they provide an alternative to. The emergence and expansion of alternative forms of food supply are influenced by various factors on different scales. Using the food systems approach we aim to study potentials and limitations of regional organic food supply in the Berlin metropolitan region (BMR. Based on the literature, we developed an analytical framework and identified determinants of regional organic food provision along the three major levels of the supply chain: agricultural production, food chain organization, and consumption. Then, we examined a qualitative case study with two different types of alternative food networks (A organic community supported agriculture (CSA and (B organic retail trade. Factors that hinder or promote the provision of regional organic food were identified through qualitative interviews and assessed by regional stakeholders in a workshop. Our findings show that demand for regional organic food is higher than regional supply, which could offer good possibilities for organic farmers. However, actors in these two food chains need to overcome some obstacles, including limited access to land, increasing renting prices, insufficient processing capacities, and unsupportive political environment for organic farming.

  4. Limitations and pitfalls of climate change impact analysis on urban rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due...... to anthropogenic climate change. Current practices have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified...... and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities liveable into the future....

  5. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  6. Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

    2012-01-01

    Trees at Alaskan treelines are assumed to be limited by temperature and to expand upslope and/or to higher latitudes with global warming. However, recent studies describe negative temperature responses and drought stress of Alaskan treeline trees in recent decades. In this study, we have analyzed the responses of treeline white spruce to temperature and precipitation according to different climatic regimes in Alaska, described as negative (cool) and positive (warm) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that in three consecutive phases (positive from 1925–46, negative from 1947–76, and positive again from 1977–98), the growth responses to temperature and precipitation differed markedly. Before 1947, in a phase of warm winters and with summer temperatures being close to the century mean, the trees at most sites responded positively to summer temperature, as one would expect from treeline trees at northern high latitudes. Between 1947 and 1976, a phase of cold winters and average summers, the trees showed similar responses, but a new pattern of negative responses to the summer temperature of the year prior to growth coupled with positive responses to the precipitation in the same year emerged at some sites. As the precipitation was relatively low at those sites, we assume that drought stress might have played a role. However, the climate responses were not uniform but were modified by regional gradients (trees at northern sites responded more often to temperature than trees at southern sites) and local site conditions (forest trees responded more often to precipitation than treeline trees), possibly reflecting differences in energy and water balance across regions and sites, respectively. However, since the shift in the PDO in 1976 from a negative to a positive phase, the trees’ climate–growth responses are much less pronounced and climate seems to have lost its importance as a limiting factor for the growth of treeline white spruce. If

  7. The implications of psychological limitations for the ethics of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasperbauer, Tyler Joshua

    2016-01-01

    Most philosophers and psychologists who have explored the psychology of climate change have focused only on motivational issues - getting people to act on what morality requires of them. This is misleading, however, because there are other psychological processes directed not at motivation...... but rather our ability to grasp the implications of climate change in a general way - what Stephen Gardiner has called the 'grasping problem'. Taking the grasping problem as my departure point, I draw two conclusions from the relevant psychological literature: 1) ethicists and policy makers should focus less...... on changing individuals' behaviours and more on changing policy; and 2) although solutions to climate change must come at the level of policy, progress on this front will be limited by incompatible moral norms....

  8. Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

  9. Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

    2016-12-01

    Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

  10. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  11. Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louisa S Evans

    Full Text Available Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.

  12. Proposed food and drug administration protection action guides for human food and animal feed: Rationale and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shleien, B.; Schmidt, G.D.; Chiacchierini, R.P.

    1978-01-01

    The Food and Drug Administration is proposing Protective Action Guides (PAG's) to be used in the event that a radiological incident results in the radioactive contamination of human food and animal feed. PAG's are proposed for two levels of response: (1) PREVENTIVE PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should take protective action to prevent or reduce the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed. (2) EMERGENCY PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should isolate food containing radioactivity to prevent its introduction into commerce and determine whether condemnation or another disposition is appropriate. Derived response levels, which are defined as the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed corresponding to the above PAG's, are proposed for radionuclides of most significance. The presentation will discuss the supporting rationale as well as the numerical limits for the PAG's. This rationale is based on the process of risk assessment and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The risk assessment compares the risk of radiation exposure to the risk from prevalent hazards accepted by society and from variability of the natural radiation environment. The cost-benefit analysis is limited to protective actions efficacious in the reduction of iodine-131 dose to the thyroid via the milk pathway (condemnation and use of stored feed). In addition, the metabolic and agricultural transfer models that were used to calculate derived response levels will be described briefly. (author)

  13. Proposed food and drug administration protection action guides for human food and animal feed: Rationale and limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shleien, B; Schmidt, G D; Chiacchierini, R P [Food and Drug Administration, Bureau of Radiological Health, Rockville, MD (United States)

    1978-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration is proposing Protective Action Guides (PAG's) to be used in the event that a radiological incident results in the radioactive contamination of human food and animal feed. PAG's are proposed for two levels of response: (1) PREVENTIVE PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should take protective action to prevent or reduce the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed. (2) EMERGENCY PAG - establishes a level at which responsible officials should isolate food containing radioactivity to prevent its introduction into commerce and determine whether condemnation or another disposition is appropriate. Derived response levels, which are defined as the concentration of radioactivity in food or animal feed corresponding to the above PAG's, are proposed for radionuclides of most significance. The presentation will discuss the supporting rationale as well as the numerical limits for the PAG's. This rationale is based on the process of risk assessment and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. The risk assessment compares the risk of radiation exposure to the risk from prevalent hazards accepted by society and from variability of the natural radiation environment. The cost-benefit analysis is limited to protective actions efficacious in the reduction of iodine-131 dose to the thyroid via the milk pathway (condemnation and use of stored feed). In addition, the metabolic and agricultural transfer models that were used to calculate derived response levels will be described briefly. (author)

  14. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

  15. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human and institutional

  16. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  17. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  18. Evaluation of Limiting Climatic Factors and Simulation of a Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    Full Text Available Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in reclamation and soil and water conservation. For scientific cultivation of this species across China, we identified the key climatic factors and explored climatically suitable habitat in order to maximize survival of Chinese sea buckthorn using MaxEnt and GIS tools, based on 98 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 13 climatic factors from Bioclim, Holdridge life zone and Kria' index variables. Our simulation showed that the MaxEnt model performance was significantly better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.93 with 10-fold cross validation. A jackknife test and the regularized gain change, which were applied to the training algorithm, showed that precipitation of the driest month (PDM, annual precipitation (AP, coldness index (CI and annual range of temperature (ART were the most influential climatic factors in limiting the distribution of Chinese sea buckthorn, which explained 70.1% of the variation. The predicted map showed that the core of climatically suitable habitat was distributed from the southwest to northwest of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, where the most influential climate variables were PDM of 1.0-7.0 mm, AP of 344.0-1089.0 mm, CI of -47.7-0.0°C, and ART of 26.1-45.0°C. We conclude that the distribution patterns of Chinese sea buckthorn are related to the northwest winter monsoon, the southwest summer monsoon and the southeast summer monsoon systems in China.

  19. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Naustvoll, L.J.; Friocourt, Y.; Mengelers, M.J.B.; Christensen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal

  20. Protecting smallholders' food security by improving soils | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The resilience of farming systems to climate change and variability depends upon healthy soil. ... communities I know already struggle with perennial food deficits and limited .... Protection de la sécurité alimentaire des petits exploitants grâce à ...

  1. Meeting the food, energy, and water demands of nine billion people: Will climate change add a new dimension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will add a new stress to our ability to produce food and supply water and energy for the expanding population. There is an emerging gap between the current production trends in food commodities around the world and the projected needs to meet the demands for the world population. This...

  2. Indoor climate optimization with limited resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, A.; Gunnarsen, Lars Bo

    This report presents experimental data and models for optimisation of the indoor climate parameters temperature, noise, draught and window opening. Results are based on experiments with human subjects performed in climate chambers at University of the Philippines. The report may assist building...... designers to balance attention and resources between the parameters of the indoor climate when resources are less than optimal....

  3. Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

    2004-10-01

    Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

  4. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  5. Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

    2017-11-01

    Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm

  6. Previous Repeated Exposure to Food Limitation Enables Rats to Spare Lipid Stores during Prolonged Starvation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCue, Marshall D; Albach, Audrey; Salazar, Giovanni

    The risk of food limitation and, ultimately, starvation dates back to the dawn of heterotrophy in animals, yet starvation remains a major factor in the regulation of modern animal populations. Researchers studying starvation more than a century ago suggested that animals subjected to sublethal periods of food limitation are somehow more tolerant of subsequent starvation events. This possibility has received little attention over the past decades, yet it is highly relevant to modern science for two reasons. First, animals in natural populations are likely to be exposed to bouts of food limitation once or more before they face prolonged starvation, during which the risk of mortality becomes imminent. Second, our current approach to studying starvation physiology in the laboratory focuses on nourished animals with no previous exposure to nutritional stress. We examined the relationship between previous exposure to food limitation and potentially adaptive physiological responses to starvation in adult rats and found several significant differences. On two occasions, rats were fasted until they lost 20% of their body mass maintained lower body temperatures, and had presumably lower energy requirements when subjected to prolonged starvation than their naive cohort that never experienced food limitation. These rats that were trained in starvation also had lower plasma glucose set -points and reduced their reliance on endogenous lipid oxidation. These findings underscore (1) the need for biologists to revisit the classic hypothesis that animals can become habituated to starvation, using a modern set of research tools; and (2) the need to design controlled experiments of starvation physiology that more closely resemble the dynamic nature of food availability.

  7. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, M. A.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 12 (2016), s. 1-7 ISSN 1742-5689 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * extreme events * food security * winter wheat Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.579, year: 2016

  8. Estimating effects of tidal power projects and climate change on threatened and endangered marine species and their food web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, D Shallin; Greene, Correigh M; Good, Thomas P

    2013-12-01

    Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

  9. Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Vervoort, Joost; Palazzo, Amanda; Islam, Shahnila; Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Havlík, Petr; Peou, Rathana; Sassen, Marieke; Veeger, Marieke; van Soesbergen, Arnout; Arnell, Andrew P.; Stuch, Benjamin; Arslan, Aslihan; Lipper, Leslie

    Abstract Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use

  10. Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China%粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方修琦; 郑景云; 葛全胜

    2014-01-01

    -curity, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social sta-bility. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous be-haviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of ad-justing the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were tak-en. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Fur-ther research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.

  11. The Netherlands in a sustainable world. Poverty, climate and biodiversity. Second Sustainability Outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanemaaijer, A.; De Ridder, W.; Aalbers, T.; Eickhout, B.; Hilderink, H.; Hitman, L.; Manders, T.; Nagelhout, D.; Petersen, A.

    2007-11-01

    Poverty reduction, climate change and biodiversity loss to be tackled as an integrated global problem. The world is too small to simultaneously produce enough food (including meat) for everyone and to deliver biofuels on a large enough scale to slow down climate change and maintain biodiversity. In this report sufficient options for fighting poverty, tackling climate change and limiting the loss of biodiversity are presented and discussed. The costs of these options can be limited to a few percent of GDP in 2040. However this will only be possible with coordinated international policies [nl

  12. Mechanisms Controlling Species Responses to Climate Change: Thermal Tolerances and Shifting Range Limits. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sage, R. F.; Bykova, O.; Coiner, H.

    2010-12-01

    One of the main effects of anthropogenic climate change will be widespread shifts in species distribution, with the common assumption that they will migrate to higher elevation and latitude. While this assumption is supported by migration patterns following climate warming in the past 20,000 years, it has not been rigorously evaluated in terms of physiological mechanism, despite the implication that migration in response to climate warming is controlled by some form of thermal adaptation. We have been evaluating the degree to which species range limits are controlled by physiological patterns of thermal tolerance in bioinvaders of North America. Bioinvaders presumably have few biotic controls over their distribution and thus are more likely to fully exploit their thermal niche. In cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), the minimum lethal temperature in winter is -32C, which corresponds to the mean winter minimum temperature at its northern range limit. In red brome (Bromus rubens), the minimum lethal temperature is also near -32C, which is well below the minimum winter temperature near -20C that corresponds to its northern distribution limit. In kudzu (Pueraria lobata), the minimum lethal temperature is near -20C, which corresponds to the midwinter minimum at its northern distribution limit; however, overwintering kudzu tissues are insulated by soil and snow cover, and thus do not experience lethal temperatures at kudzu's northern range limit. These results demonstrate that some invasive species can exploit the potential range defined by their low temperature tolerance and thus can be predicted by mechanistic models to migrate to higher latitudes with moderation of winter cold. The distribution of other invaders such as kudzu and red brome are not controlled by tolerance of midwinter cold. Developing mechanistic models of their distributions, and how these might change with climate warming, will require extensive physiological study.

  13. A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDMONDS, JAMES A. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; LINK, ROBERT [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA; CUI, RYNA [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

    2017-11-01

    Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

  14. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. FOOD QUALITY AND SAFETY ASSURANCE IN TERMS OF LOSS AND WASTE LIMITATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Śmiechowska

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges of 21st century is satisfying the food needs of the fast growing population of the world. Food must fulfill quality and safety standards.  The access to safe and appropriate food is not the same everywhere.  Food excess and, in consequence, food waste is present in many regions of the world. This study is meant to explain the causes of food waste on the basis of the author’s own research and study results of other scientists. The lack of authenticity and falsification belong to the new factors endangering food safety and food waste related thereto. This analysis proves that the authenticity of food improves its safety through the implementation of quality management systems, the appropriate system of food labelling and food identification by means of applicable law regulations, supervision and control systems. Main aim of this study is to address why, even though there are so many quality standards and systems, a significant problem with food loss and waste constantly occurs. Waste-causing factors have been determined on the example of bread and the handling of unconsumed bread has been attempted in this study. Waste limiting actions are necessary as food production is significantly overburdening the natural environment and generating increasing amount of waste, hazardous to the clean air. 

  16. Shining India?: Assessing and addressing the risks from an unsustainable trajectory of climate, water, food, energy and income inequity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and demographics are primary drivers of regional resource sustainability. In today's global economy, increasing trade has provided a mechanism to alleviate regional stresses. However, increasing regional income promotes consumption, aggravating regional and global resource pressures. South Asia, has the highest population density at a sub-continent scale. Given its monsoonal climate, and high intensity of agriculture it faces perhaps the most severe population weighted water stress in the world. Rapidly declining groundwater tables and the associated high energy use for pumping for irrigated agriculture translate into unsustainable energy imports and expenditure that contributed to the two largest blackouts in global history in summer 2012. Access to water has been progressively declining for both rural and urban populations for the last 3 decades. The increasing energy imports and poor grid reliability translate into limits to the growth of manufacturing and exports of goods and services. The growing income inequity within the population and across national borders, and the impacts of floods and droughts on access to water, food and energy collectively suggest a very high risk for social unrest and a conflict flashpoint. I present a scenario analysis that establishes this case for the emergence of internal and external strife in the region as an outcome of the current resource and natural disaster management policies in the region. Prospects for strategic policy changes for water and energy management and the design of a food procurement and distribution system that could lead to a better future are discussed.

  17. Limits to preference and the sensitivity of choice to rate and amount of food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aparicio, Carlos F; Baum, William M; Hughes, Christine E; Pitts, Raymond C

    2016-03-01

    Studies of choice holding food-amount ratio constant while varying food-rate ratio within sessions showed that local changes in preference depend on relative amount of food. The present study investigated whether sensitivity of choice to food-rate ratio and sensitivity to food-amount ratio are independent of one another when food-rate ratios are varied across sessions and food-amount ratios are varied within sessions. Food deliveries for rats' presses on the left and right levers were scheduled according to three different food-rate ratios of 1:1, 9:1, and 1:9; each food-rate ratio lasted for 106 sessions and was arranged independently of seven food-amount ratios (7:1, 6:2, 5:3, 4:4, 3:5, 2:6, and 1:7 food pellets) occurring within sessions in random sequence. Each amount ratio lasted for 10 food deliveries and was separated from another by a 60-s blackout. Sensitivity to rate ratio was high (1.0) across food deliveries. Sensitivity to amount ratio was low when food rates were equal across alternatives, but was high when rate ratio and amount ratio opposed one another. When rate ratio and amount ratio went in the same direction, choice ratio reached an elevenfold limit which reduced sensitivity to approximately zero. We conclude that three factors affect sensitivity to amount: (1) the limit to preference, (2) the equal effect on preference of amounts greater than four pellets, and (3) the absence of differential effects of switches in amount in the equal-rates (1:1) condition. Taken together, these findings indicate that rate and amount only sometimes combine independently as additive variables to determine preference when amount ratios vary frequently within sessions. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  18. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloua Rochdane

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzes satellite and socioeconomic data to explore the relationship between food and wood demand and supply, expressed in terms of net primary production (NPP, in Morocco. A vulnerability index is defined as the ratio of demand to supply as influenced by population, affluence, technology and climate indicators. The present situation (1995–2007, as well as projections of demand and supply, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Scenarios A2 and B2, are analyzed for a 2025 horizon. We find that the food NPP demand increased by 34.5%, whereas the wood consumption NPP demand decreased by 19.3% between 1995 and 2007. The annual NPP required to support the population’s food and wood appropriation was 29.73 million tons of carbon (MTC in 2007, while the landscape NPP production for the same year was 60.24 MTC; indicating that the population appropriates about 50% of the total NPP resources. Both scenarios show increases in demand and decreases in supply. Under A2, it would take more than 1.25 years for terrestrial ecosystems in Morocco to produce the NPP appropriated by populations in one year. This number is 0.70 years under B2. This already high vulnerability for food and wood products is likely to be exacerbated with climate changes and population increase.

  19. Testing the environmental performance of urban agriculture as a food supply in northern climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Fernandez, John

    2016-01-01

    The past decade has seen a renaissance of urban agriculture in the world's wealthy, northern cities. The practice of producing food in and around cities is championed as a method to reduce environmental impacts of urban food demands (reducing distance from farm to fork - ‘food miles’) whilst......, though opposite findings emerge when external energy inputs are significant. In this study we perform an environmental life cycle assessment of six urban farms in Boston, US producing lettuce and tomatoes, with conventional counterparts across six impact categories. Performance of urban agriculture...... conferring a number of ancillary benefits to host cities (runoff attenuation, urban heat island mitigation) and ex-urban environments (carbon sequestration). Previous environmental assessments have found urban agriculture to be more sustainable than conventional agriculture when performed in mild climates...

  20. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  1. Energy analysis of alternative CO2 refrigeration system configurations for retail food applications in moderate and warm climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsamos, K.M.; Ge, Y.T.; Santosa, IDewa; Tassou, S.A.; Bianchi, G.; Mylona, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Alternative CO 2 refrigeration technologies are compared for temperate and warm climates. • The CO 2 booster system with parallel compression was found to be the most energy efficient system. • Parallel compression can offer efficiency advantages of 3.6% in moderate and 5.0% in warm climates. • Parallel compression in booster CO 2 systems is economically attractive in warm climates. - Abstract: Refrigeration systems are crucial in retail food stores to ensure appropriate merchandising of food products. This paper compares four different CO 2 refrigeration system configurations in terms of cooling performance, environmental impact, power consumption and annual running costs. The systems studied were the conventional booster refrigeration system with gas bypass (reference system), the all CO 2 cascade system with gas bypass, a booster system with a gas bypass compressor, and integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor. The weather conditions of London, UK, and Athens, Greece, were used for the modelling of energy consumption and environmental impacts to represent moderate and warm climatic conditions respectively. The control strategies for the refrigeration systems were derived from experimental tests in the laboratory on a conventional booster refrigeration system. The results from the analysis showed that the CO 2 booster system with gas bypass compressor can provide best performance with 5.0% energy savings for the warm climate and 3.65% for the moderate climate, followed by the integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor, with 3.6% and 2.1% savings over the reference system for the warm and moderate climates respectively.

  2. Agriculture on the Brink: Climate Change, Labor and Smallholder Farming in Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William G. Moseley

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Botswana is a semi-arid, middle-income African country that imports 90 percent of its food. Despite its relative prosperity, Botswana also suffers from one of the highest measures of income inequality in the world, persistent poverty, and relatively high levels of food insecurity. The objective of this paper is to explore how political economy, climate change and livelihood dynamics are synergistically impacting household food security. The major finding is that the marginalization of smallholder farming in Botswana has as much or more to do with domestic, regional and international political economy as it does with climate change. As such, international efforts to support climate change adaptation in Botswana will have a limited effect on smallholder farming livelihoods and rural food security unless such efforts take account of political economic constraints. Effective support must be based on a grounded understanding of the real drivers of marginalization and food insecurity. One initiative that merits further exploration is the government’s backyard gardening initiative, which could be viewed as a pro-poor climate adaptation strategy. The findings of this paper are based on semi-structured interviews with policymakers and surveys with urban, peri-urban and rural households undertaken in 2012 and 2015.

  3. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Farm-level Efficiency in Food Crop Production in Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otitoju, MA.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Food crop yields depend largely on prevailing climate conditions, especially in Africa, where rain-fed agriculture predominate. The extent to which climate impacts are felt depends principally on the adaptation measures used by farmers. This study focused on the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on farm-level technical efficiency. The study used primary data collected from 360 randomly selected farmers in Southwest Nigeria. Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier production model was used to analyse the data. Multiple cropping, land fragmentation, multiple planting dates, mulching and cover cropping were the major climate change adaptation strategies employed by the farmers. While land fragmentation and multiple planting dates had significant positive relationships, years of climate change awareness and social capital had significant inverse relationships, with technical inefficiency. This may be because while land fragmentation may hinder farm mechanization, multiple planting dates may increase the monotonousness and drudgery of farming. On the other hand, social capital and climate change awareness could help ameliorate the effects of, particularly, land fragmentation through resource pooling. It is therefore recommended that the farmers be encouraged to form cooperative societies so as to leverage their resource status through collective efforts.

  4. Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julio Camarero, J; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

    2015-11-01

    Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin ('rear edge') of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species' European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern 'rear edge', in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. © The Author 2015. Published by

  5. Slow growth of a translocated beaver population partly due to a climatic shift in food quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, B.A.; Broftová, L.; Heitkönig, I.M.A.; Vorel, A.; Kostkan, V.

    2005-01-01

    In temperate regions climate change has led to advances in plant phenology which may disrupt the synchrony between food availability and reproductive requirements of higher trophic levels. Because leaf quality generally drops with leaf maturation, for herbivorous animals a stoichiometric effect of

  6. Rethinking crop diversification under changing climate, hydrology and food habit in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminul Islam Akanda

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Extreme temperature, frequent and intensive flood, cyclone and other natural disasters due to climate change became acute in Bangladesh and would be severe in future. Besides, water crisis due to shortage of upstream flow and very little rainfall in dry season would affect in a same way. Gradual higher dependency on groundwater irrigation during last few decades created pressure on groundwater even after a huge discharge during rainy season. Using secondary data, this research analyzed the changes in cropping pattern along with a forecast of area to be distributed among various crops in 2029-30 and proposed a re-distribution considering probable crop failure, water crisis and change in food habit. Inherit rice-dominated food habit and government incentive policy encouraged farmers to be concentrated highly on water-intensive rice farming. However, a recent tendency of less rice consumption would encourage crop diversification in future. An incentive policy for farming of diversified crops and their intensification in all crop seasons would be effective to reduce pressure on groundwater and to persuade a balanced food basket in Bangladesh.

  7. Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

    2018-02-01

    Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

  8. A Practical Guide for Estimating Dietary Fat and Fiber Using Limited Food Frequency Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, Anne Victoria; And Others

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for estimating daily intake of dietary fat and fiber based on limited food frequency data. The procedure, which relies on National Food Consumption Survey data and daily consumption rates, can provide baseline estimates of dietary patterns for health promotion policymakers. (SLD)

  9. Sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply. Political and legal challenges of the 21th century; Nachhaltigkeit, Energiewende, Klimawandel, Welternaehrung. Politische und rechtliche Herausforderungen des 21. Jahrhunderts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haertel, Ines (ed.)

    2014-07-01

    The book on sustainability, energy policy, climatic change, world food supply as political challenges in the 21th century includes contributions on the following topics: sustainability and environment, energy and climatic change, agriculture and world food supply.

  10. Estimation of food limitation of bivalve larvae in coastal waters of north-western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bos, O.G.; Hendriks, I.E.; Strasser, M.

    2006-01-01

    Marine invertebrate recruitment may be affected by food limitation during the pelagic larval life stages. In the present study, field data on abundance of bivalve larvae along with their prey (small phytoplankton) were examined to see whether they were consistent with predictions made...... assimilation rate averaged 7-26% of the maximum assimilation rate. Under the assumptions made for the present study, it is suggested that growth of larvae in north-west European waters is often food-limited. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  11. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  12. Food and Sustainability Challenges Under Climate Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2016-12-01

    Plants are permanently impacted by their environments, and their abilities to tolerate multiple fluctuating environmental conditions vary as a function of several genetic and natural factors. Over the past decades, scientific innovations and applications of the knowledge derived from biotechnological investigations to agriculture caused a substantial increase of the yields of many crops. However, due to exacerbating effects of climate change and a growing human population, a crisis of malnutrition may arise in the upcoming decades in some places in the world. So, effective, ethical and managerial regulations and fair policies should be set up and applied at the local and global levels so that Earth may fairly provide the food and living accommodation needed by its inhabitants. To save some energy consumption, electric devices (for e.g., smartphones, laptops, street lights, traffic lights, etc.) should be manufactured to work with solar energy, whenever available, particularly in sunny countries where sun is available most of the time. Such characteristic will save energy and make solar energy-based smartphones and laptops less cumbersome in terms of chargers and plugging issues.

  13. Climate, Agroecology and Socio-Economic Determinants of Food Availability from Agriculture in Bangladesh, (1948–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanzidur Rahman

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the impacts of prices, resources, technology, education, public investments, climatic variables and agroecology on Food Availability (FA from domestic agriculture in Bangladesh using a panel data of 17 regions covering a 61-year period (1948–2008 by utilising a dynamic agricultural supply response framework and Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM estimator. Results revealed that FA has increased at the rate of 1.32% p.a. with significant regional variations. Significant regional differences exist with respect to climatic variables, resources, Green Revolution (GR technology and education. Among the output prices, rise in the prices of rice, vegetables and pulses significantly increase FA whereas an increase in spice price significantly reduces FA. Among the input prices, a rise in labour wage significantly increases FA. FA increases significantly with an increase in GR technology expansion, as expected. Among the resources, increases in average farm size and labour stock per farm significantly increase FA, as expected. Among the climatic factors, a rise in annual minimum temperature significantly increases FA. FA is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. FA is significantly higher in Karatoa floodplain and Atrai Basin but significantly lower in Ganges Tidal floodplain. Major disasters/events (i.e., the Liberation War of 1971 and 1988 flood also significantly reduced FA, as expected. The key conclusion is that, over the past six decades, Food Availability in Bangladesh was significantly shaped by changes in climate, agrocology, output prices, resources and GR technology diffusion.

  14. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  15. Genome resources for climate-resilient cowpea, an essential crop for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Amatriaín, María; Mirebrahim, Hamid; Xu, Pei; Wanamaker, Steve I; Luo, MingCheng; Alhakami, Hind; Alpert, Matthew; Atokple, Ibrahim; Batieno, Benoit J; Boukar, Ousmane; Bozdag, Serdar; Cisse, Ndiaga; Drabo, Issa; Ehlers, Jeffrey D; Farmer, Andrew; Fatokun, Christian; Gu, Yong Q; Guo, Yi-Ning; Huynh, Bao-Lam; Jackson, Scott A; Kusi, Francis; Lawley, Cynthia T; Lucas, Mitchell R; Ma, Yaqin; Timko, Michael P; Wu, Jiajie; You, Frank; Barkley, Noelle A; Roberts, Philip A; Lonardi, Stefano; Close, Timothy J

    2017-03-01

    Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.) is a legume crop that is resilient to hot and drought-prone climates, and a primary source of protein in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the developing world. However, genome resources for cowpea have lagged behind most other major crops. Here we describe foundational genome resources and their application to the analysis of germplasm currently in use in West African breeding programs. Resources developed from the African cultivar IT97K-499-35 include a whole-genome shotgun (WGS) assembly, a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) physical map, and assembled sequences from 4355 BACs. These resources and WGS sequences of an additional 36 diverse cowpea accessions supported the development of a genotyping assay for 51 128 SNPs, which was then applied to five bi-parental RIL populations to produce a consensus genetic map containing 37 372 SNPs. This genetic map enabled the anchoring of 100 Mb of WGS and 420 Mb of BAC sequences, an exploration of genetic diversity along each linkage group, and clarification of macrosynteny between cowpea and common bean. The SNP assay enabled a diversity analysis of materials from West African breeding programs. Two major subpopulations exist within those materials, one of which has significant parentage from South and East Africa and more diversity. There are genomic regions of high differentiation between subpopulations, one of which coincides with a cluster of nodulin genes. The new resources and knowledge help to define goals and accelerate the breeding of improved varieties to address food security issues related to limited-input small-holder farming and climate stress. © 2016 The Authors. The Plant Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Experimental Biology.

  16. The effects of global climate variability on water resources and agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adibe, E.C.

    1990-06-01

    Widespread improvements in agricultural productivity have been achieved over the last century using a wide range of technological advances. Future improvements, however, are likely to be constrained by the decreasing quality of new lands brought into production, growing limitations on capital for crop expansion and mechanization, and increasing population pressures. On top of these constraints are new uncertainties about future climatic conditions and the effects of anthropogenic climatic changes on water availability. In order to better understand some of the impacts of climatic changes on food security, plausible changes in water supply are explored and the possible effects on food production investigated. The cases discussed here include increases and decreases in both the average and the variability of water resource availability. (author). 30 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

  17. Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

  18. Misperceived climate friendliness of organic food and consumer willingness to pay for actual greenhouse gas emission reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Christensen, Tove; Denver, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    Organic farming practices are generally associated with lower environmental impacts than conventional farming but this does not generally hold true in a climate context. A recent meta-analysis shows that organic milk production often has higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kilo milk produce...... in consumers’ preferences. Hence, if reduced GHG emissions are to be pursued by increased consumption of climate friendlier food then marketing efforts and information strategies need to be targeted specifically to different segments of the population....

  19. Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    water sources management in Ningxia, Gansu and. Inner Mongolia. ... climate change, these studies tend to limit their ... were acquired from the China Meteorological Sci- ... (DEM) were obtained from National Topographic ... AT identified for wheat jointing stage, heading ... mended by the Food and Agriculture Organization.

  20. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-François; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-10-01

    To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110-285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80-300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast

  1. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  2. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2018-02-01

    One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Evaluation of presenting conserved foods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asl Soleimani H

    1998-08-01

    Full Text Available Food, it's production and preserving has been one of the most important problems in human life. Limitation of production due to climatic, geographic and papulational situations and conservation due to providance and prosecting for solution of one of the most fundamental human needs, has been discussed much. Difference between the lands, temperature, humidity and rainfall on one hand and texture and accumulation of papulation on the other hand, not only has limited the amount and kind of food production but also has improved the preserving methods as much as possible. Extra production in fertile lands and confirmed need for receiving food in deserts and dry areas, makes the need of exchanging and transfer of food inevitable because of economic and ethical matters and sanitation of food. Avoidance of being contaminated and resistance against decay seems very important and vital. So process of preserving and conserving of eaw or cooked food became a fundamental problem. In previous 200 years, many advanced methods have been designed for preserving food in which the role of conserving and packing in vital often. Because of industrial production, conserved food have a great influence on sanitation of people nutrition, and herefor the rate of diseases from consumption of contaminated food has been reduced in industrial countries and the tensancy of people to use conventional food has been decreased gradually. Because of high cost of industrial conserved food production some people produce conserved foods in the way which is not hygienic. That may have a high risk when ingested. In this article we discuss about unwarranted conserved foods productions.

  4. Improvements in crop water productivity increase water sustainability and food security—a global analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brauman, Kate A; Foley, Jonathan A; Siebert, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation consumes more water than any other human activity, and thus the challenges of water sustainability and food security are closely linked. To evaluate how water resources are used for food production, we examined global patterns of water productivity—food produced (kcal) per unit of water (l) consumed. We document considerable variability in crop water productivity globally, not only across different climatic zones but also within climatic zones. The least water productive systems are disproportionate freshwater consumers. On precipitation-limited croplands, we found that ∼40% of water consumption goes to production of just 20% of food calories. Because in many cases crop water productivity is well below optimal levels, in many cases farmers have substantial opportunities to improve water productivity. To demonstrate the potential impact of management interventions, we calculated that raising crop water productivity in precipitation-limited regions to the 20th percentile of productivity would increase annual production on rainfed cropland by enough to provide food for an estimated 110 million people, and water consumption on irrigated cropland would be reduced enough to meet the annual domestic water demands of nearly 1.4 billion people. (letter)

  5. Organic Farming as a Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For climate change adaptation, OF systems have a strong potential for building resilient food systems through farm diversification and building soil fertility with organic matter. In developing countries, OF offers alternatives to energy-intensive production inputs such as synthetic fertilizers which are limited for poor rural ...

  6. 21 CFR 886.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 886.9 Section 886.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 886.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  7. 21 CFR 872.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 872.9 Section 872.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 872.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  8. 21 CFR 888.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 888.9 Section 888.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 888.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  9. 21 CFR 892.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 892.9 Section 892.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 892.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  10. 21 CFR 882.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 882.9 Section 882.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Provisions § 882.9 Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act...

  11. The Effects of Supplementary Food on the Breeding Performance of Eurasian Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus; Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James O Vafidis

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate variation can drive population changes requires information linking climate, local conditions, trophic resources, behaviour and demography. Climate change alters the seasonal pattern of emergence and abundance of invertebrate populations, which may have important consequences for the breeding performance and population change of insectivorous birds. In this study, we examine the role of food availability in driving behavioural changes in an insectivorous migratory songbird; the Eurasian reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. We use a feeding experiment to examine the effect of increased food supply on different components of breeding behaviour and first-brood productivity, over three breeding seasons (2012-2014. Reed warblers respond to food-supplementation by advancing their laying date by up to 5.6 days. Incubation periods are shorter in supplemented groups during the warmest mean spring temperatures. Nestling growth rates are increased in nests provisioned by supplemented parents. In addition, nest predation is reduced, possibly because supplemented adults spend more time at the nest and faster nestling growth reduces the period of vulnerability of eggs and nestlings to predators (and brood parasites. The net effect of these changes is to advance the fledging completion date and to increase the overall productivity of the first brood for supplemented birds. European populations of reed warblers are currently increasing; our results suggest that advancing spring phenology, leading to increased food availability early in the breeding season, could account for this change by facilitating higher productivity. Furthermore, the earlier brood completion potentially allows multiple breeding attempts. This study identifies the likely trophic and behavioural mechanisms by which climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology and abundance may lead to changes in breeding phenology, nest survival and net

  12. Environmental Impacts and Hotspots of Food Losses: Value Chain Analysis of Swiss Food Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretta, Claudio; Stucki, Matthias; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2017-10-03

    Reducing food losses and waste is crucial to making our food system more efficient and sustainable. This is the first paper that quantifies the environmental impacts of food waste by distinguishing the various stages of the food value chain, 33 food categories that represent the whole food basket in Switzerland, and including food waste treatment. Environmental impacts are expressed in terms of climate change and biodiversity impacts due to water and land use. Climate change impacts of food waste are highest for fresh vegetables, due to the large amounts wasted, while the specific impact per kg is largest for beef. Biodiversity impacts are mainly caused by cocoa and coffee (16% of total) and by beef (12%). Food waste at the end of the food value chain (households and food services) causes almost 60% of the total climate impacts of food waste, because of the large quantities lost at this stage and the higher accumulated impacts per kg of product. The net environmental benefits from food waste treatment are only 5-10% of the impacts from production and supply of the wasted food. Thus, avoiding food waste should be a first-line priority, while optimizing the method of treatment is less relevant.

  13. Overcoming Food Security Challenges within an Energy/Water/Food Nexus (EWFN Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria De Laurentiis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenge of feeding nine billion people by 2050, in a context of constrained resources and growing environmental pressures posed by current food production methods on one side, and changing lifestyles and consequent shifts in dietary patterns on the other, exacerbated by the effects of climate change, has been defined as one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The first step to achieve food security is to find a balance between the growing demand for food, and the limited production capacity. In order to do this three main pathways have been identified: employing sustainable production methods in agriculture, changing diets, and reducing waste in all stages of the food chain. The application of an energy, water and food nexus (EWFN approach, which takes into account the interactions and connections between these three resources, and the synergies and trade-offs that arise from the way they are managed, is a prerequisite for the correct application of these pathways. This work discusses how Life Cycle Assessment (LCA might be applicable for creating the evidence-base to foster such desired shifts in food production and consumption patterns.

  14. Modeling the intersections of Food, Energy, and Water in climate-vulnerable Ethiopia with an application to small-scale irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.

    2017-12-01

    Africa is home to some of the most climate vulnerable populations in the world. Energy and agricultural development have diverse impacts on the region's food security and economic well-being from the household to the national level, particularly considering climate variability and change. Our ultimate goal is to understand coupled Food-Energy-Water (FEW) dynamics across spatial scales in order to quantify the sensitivity of critical human outcomes to FEW development strategies in Ethiopia. We are developing bottom-up and top-down multi-scale models, spanning local, sub-national and national scales to capture the FEW linkages across communities and climatic adaptation zones. The focus of this presentation is the sub-national scale multi-player micro-economic (MME) partial-equilibrium model with coupled food and energy sector for Ethiopia. With fixed large-scale economic, demographic, and resource factors from the national scale computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and inferences of behavior parameters from the local scale agent-based model (ABM), the MME studies how shocks such as drought (crop failure) and development of resilience technologies would influence FEW system at a sub-national scale. The MME model is based on aggregating individual optimization problems for relevant players. It includes production, storage, and consumption of food and energy at spatially disaggregated zones, and transportation in between with endogenously modeled infrastructure. The aggregated players for each zone have different roles such as crop producers, storage managers, and distributors, who make decisions according to their own but interdependent objective functions. The food and energy supply chain across zones is therefore captured. Ethiopia is dominated by rain-fed agriculture with only 2% irrigated farmland. Small-scale irrigation has been promoted as a resilience technology that could potentially play a critical role in food security and economic well-being in

  15. Monitoring of antimicrobial resistance among food animals: Principles and limitations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarestrup, Frank Møller

    2004-01-01

    Large amounts of antimicrobial agents are in the production of food animals used for therapy and prophylactics of bacterial infections and in feed to promote growth. The use of antimicrobial agents causes problems in the therapy of infections through the selection for resistance among bacteria...... pathogenic for animals or humans. Current knowledge regarding the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in food animals, the quantitative impact of the use of different antimicrobial agents on selection for resistance and the most appropriate treatment regimes to limit the development of resistance......, there are major differences between programmes designed to detect changes in a national population, individual herds or groups of animals. In addition, programmes have to be designed differently according to whether the aim is to determine changes in resistance for all antimicrobial agents or only...

  16. Identification of climatic state with limited proxy data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Annan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the identifiability of the climate by limited proxy data. We test a data assimilation approach through perfect model pseudoproxy experiments, using a simple likelihood-based weighting based on the particle filtering process. Our experimental set-up enables us to create a massive 10 000-member ensemble at modest computational cost, thus enabling us to generate statistically robust results. We find that the method works well when data are sparse and imprecise, but in this case the reconstruction has a rather low accuracy as indicated by residual RMS errors. Conversely, when data are relatively plentiful and accurate, the estimate tracks the target closely, at least when considering the hemispheric mean. However, in this case, our prior ensemble size of 10 000 appears to be inadequate to correctly represent the true posterior, and the regional performance is poor. Using correlations to assess performance gives a more encouraging picture, with significant correlations ranging from about 0.3 when data are sparse to values over 0.7 when data are plentiful, but the residual RMS errors are substantial in all cases. Our results imply that caution is required in interpreting climate reconstructions, especially when considering the regional scale, as skill on this basis is markedly lower than on the large scale of hemispheric mean temperature.

  17. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  18. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  19. Climate change and forest resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2006-10-15

    Significant global climate change is inevitable. Tree species have a limited capacity to tolerate climate change or migrate through natural or artificial means. We do not know enough about the comparative resilience of forest-based, agricultural, marine or fresh water ecosystems. But it is clear that biodiverse forest ecosystems are under threat. And the threat extends beyond forests themselves. An estimated 60 million indigenous people are heavily dependent on the world's rainforests. Some 350 million people live in or close to dense forests and rely on them for subsistence or income. A further 1.2 billion people in developing countries depend on trees on farm to generate food or cash.

  20. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  1. Projective analysis of staple food crop productivity in adaptation to future climate change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing; Zhang, Wen; Li, Tingting; Sun, Wenjuan; Yu, Yongqiang; Wang, Guocheng

    2017-08-01

    Climate change continually affects our capabilities to feed the increasing population. Rising temperatures have the potential to shorten the crop growth duration and therefore reduce crop yields. In the past decades, China has successfully improved crop cultivars to stabilize, and even lengthen, the crop growth duration to make use of increasing heat resources. However, because of the complex cropping systems in the different regions of China, the possibility and the effectiveness of regulating crop growth duration to reduce the negative impacts of future climate change remain questionable. Here, we performed a projective analysis of the staple food crop productivity in double-rice, wheat-rice, wheat-maize, single-rice, and single-maize cropping systems in China using modeling approaches. The results indicated that from the present to the 2040s, the warming climate would shorten the growth duration of the current rice, wheat, and maize cultivars by 2-24, 11-13, and 9-29 days, respectively. The most significant shortening of the crop growth duration would be in Northeast China, where single-rice and single-maize cropping dominates the croplands. The shortened crop growth duration would consequently reduce crop productivity. The most significant decreases would be 27-31, 6-20, and 7-22% for the late crop in the double-rice rotation, wheat in the winter wheat-rice rotation, and single maize, respectively. However, our projection analysis also showed that the negative effects of the warming climate could be compensated for by stabilizing the growth duration of the crops via improvement in crop cultivars. In this case, the productivity of rice, wheat, and maize in the 2040s would increase by 4-16, 31-38, and 11-12%, respectively. Our modeling results implied that the possibility of securing future food production exists by adopting proper adaptation options in China.

  2. Modeling intermediate product selection under production and storage capacity limitations in food processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs and pro...... with production and inventory planning, thereby considering the production and storage capacity limitations. The resulting model can be used to solve an important practical problem typical for many food processing industries.......In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs...... and processing costs are minimized. However, this product selection process is bound by production and storage capacity limitations, such as the number and size of storage tanks or silos. In this paper, we present a mathematical programming approach that combines decision making on product selection...

  3. Populations of the northern grasshopper, Melanoplus borealis (Orthoptera: Acrididae), in Alaska are rarely food limited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Dennis J; Zhang, Mingchu

    2011-06-01

    In some systems, grasshoppers appear to be food limited in most years, whereas in other systems top down forces, for example, predators, are more often implicated in population regulation. Sustainable strategies to manage grasshopper populations through habitat management require knowledge of the forces that regulate grasshopper populations. This experiment was undertaken to determine whether populations of Melanoplus borealis (Fieber), a common pest species in Alaska, are food-limited in Alaska. Cages were set up in a fallow field near Delta Junction, AK, in 3 yr (2007-2009). In 2007 and 2008, fertilizer was added to half the plots to increase primary production, and, in all years, cages within each plot were stocked with 0, 5, 9, or 13 fourth-instar M. borealis (equivalent to 0, 20, 36, or 52 grasshoppers/m(2)). Grasshoppers in each cage were counted weekly. Near the end of the growing season, surviving female grasshoppers (≈40% of the original number) were collected. Femur length was taken as a measure of adult size, and functional ovarioles were counted as a measure of current fecundity. If the grasshoppers were food limited, we expected to see significant effects of either density or fertilizer on grasshopper survival, size, or fecundity. The fertilizer treatment greatly increased primary production in both years. Neither fertilizer treatment nor grasshopper density had consistent effects on survival, size, or potential fecundity, leading us to conclude that food is seldom limiting to populations in the interior of Alaska at densities <50 m(-2).

  4. Climate Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Permafrost? How Do We Predict Future Climate? Green Career: Earth Scientist 10 Things About Ecosystems ... study Earth? What can trees tell us about climate change? Why does NASA care about food? Games ...

  5. Modeling the Energy-Water-Food Nexus: Where Do We Go From Here?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, N. A.

    2015-12-01

    Economic development, population growth, and the changing diets and lifestyles of a growing middle class are expected to lead to increasing demands for water, food, and energy in the future. Meanwhile, climate change may cause localized resource scarcity and exacerbate the supply challenges. Moreover, there is a growing awareness that the supply systems for water, food, and energy are inextricably linked and cannot be evaluated in independent silos. Rather, integrated approaches are needed that can identify the potential trade-offs and synergies among sectors, identify holistic solutions, and evaluate the impacts of socioeconomic and hydroclimatic change. Some initial efforts at modeling the energy-water-food nexus in an integrated fashion have been attempted, but they all suffer from limitations and much more research is needed. This study provides a review of the current state-of-the-art in modeling the energy-water-food nexus at both global and regional scales, identifies limitations associated with existing approaches, and proposes specific recommendations for improving nexus assessments. Some limitations of existing models include insufficient spatial resolution for assessing water constraints in the energy sector, inadequate representation of the linkages among sectors, limited assessment of the impacts of socioeconomic and hydroclimatic change, limited inclusion of water conveyance, simplistic downscaling of water and energy demands, and the lack of a consistent framework for global nexus assessment. In addition, research gaps are identified by graphically classifying existing nexus assessments according to their spatial resolution, coverage of nexus sectors and linkages, and suitability for assessing the main drivers of global change (e.g., development, urbanization, technology, and climate change). The final portion of the study proposes recommendations for addressing the research gaps and identifies tremendous opportunity for developing better models and

  6. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. Copyright © 2016

  7. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  8. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  9. Deteriorating food security in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, C.; Samanta, A.; Hashimoto, H.; Kumar, K.; Ganguly, S.; Thenkabail, P. S.; Srivastava, A. N.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.

    2009-12-01

    One of the major challenges we face on our planet is increasing agricultural production to meet the dietary requirements of an additional 2.5 billion people by the mid of the century while limiting cropland expansion and other damages to natural resources. This problem is even more so challenging given that nearly all the population growth will take place where the majority of the hungry live today and where ongoing and future climate changes are projected to most negatively impact agricultural production, the semi-arid tropics (SAT). The SAT contain 40% of the global irrigated and rainfed croplands in over 50 developing countries and a growing population of over a billion and half people, many of which live in absolute poverty and strongly depend on agriculture that is constrained by chronic water shortages. Rates of food grain production in many of the countries of the SAT have progressively increased since the mid 1960s aided by the Green Revolution and relatively favourable climatic conditions. However, aggregated agricultural production statistics indicate that the rate of food grain production has recently stalled or declined in several of the countries in this region, escalating the concerns over matters of food security, that is availability of food and one’s access to it, in a region where many people live in extreme poverty, depend on an agrarian economy and are expected to face increasingly worse climatic conditions in the near future. In this paper we analyze the agricultural deceleration and its drivers over the country of India, which faces the daunting challenge of needing a 50-100% increase in yields of major crops by the middle to the 21st century to feed its growing population. We analyze the long term (1982-2006) record of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) together with climate, land use, and crop production

  10. Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline A Curtis

    Full Text Available Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the 'plant characteristics' information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN, and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001. The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts' knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for

  11. Smallholder Food and Water Security in the Face of Climatic Stress and the Coffee Leaf Rust: Lessons from Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.

    2015-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.

  12. Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

  13. Review: Feed demand landscape and implications of food-not feed strategy for food security and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkar, H P S

    2017-12-04

    The food-feed competition is one of the complex challenges, and so are the ongoing climate change, land degradation and water shortage for realizing sustainable food production systems. By 2050 the global demand for animal products is projected to increase by 60% to 70%, and developing countries will have a lion's share in this increase. Currently, ~800 million tonnes of cereals (one-third of total cereal production) are used in animal feed and by 2050 it is projected to be over 1.1 billion tonnes. Most of the increase in feed demand will be in developing countries, which already face many food security challenges. Additional feed required for the projected increased demand of animal products, if met through food grains, will further exacerbate the food insecurity in these countries. Furthermore, globally, the production, processing and transport of feed account for 45% of the greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. This paper presents approaches for addressing these challenges in quest for making livestock sector more sustainable. The use of novel human-inedible feed resources such as insect meals, leaf meals, protein isolates, single cell protein produced using waste streams, protein hydrolysates, spineless cactus, algae, co-products of the biofuel industry, food wastes among others, has enormous prospects. Efficient use of grasslands also offers possibilities for increasing carbon sequestration, land reclamation and livestock productivity. Opportunities also exist for decreasing feed wastages by simple and well proven practices such as use of appropriate troughs, increase in efficiency of harvesting crop residues and their conversion to complete feeds especially in the form of densified feed blocks or pellets, feeding as per the nutrient requirements, among others. Available evidence have been presented to substantiate arguments that: (a) for successful and sustained adoption of a feed technology, participation of the private sector and a sound

  14. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

  15. Global dynamics in a stoichiometric food chain model with two limiting nutrients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Fan, Meng; Kuang, Yang

    2017-07-01

    Ecological stoichiometry studies the balance of energy and multiple chemical elements in ecological interactions to establish how the nutrient content affect food-web dynamics and nutrient cycling in ecosystems. In this study, we formulate a food chain with two limiting nutrients in the form of a stoichiometric population model. A comprehensive global analysis of the rich dynamics of the targeted model is explored both analytically and numerically. Chaotic dynamic is observed in this simple stoichiometric food chain model and is compared with traditional model without stoichiometry. The detailed comparison reveals that stoichiometry can reduce the parameter space for chaotic dynamics. Our findings also show that decreasing producer production efficiency may have only a small effect on the consumer growth but a more profound impact on the top predator growth. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Deoxynivalenol. Derivation of concentration limits in wheat and wheat containing food products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pieters MN; Fiolet DCM; Baars AJ; CSR

    1999-01-01

    The mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) produced by fungi of the Fusarium genus may occur in various cereal crops. A provisional TDI of 1.1 ug per kg body weight was derived to calculate concentration limits for the mycotoxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), in wheat and wheat food products. Children (1-4 years

  17. Health and equity impacts of climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and health gains from climate action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Hayley; Jones, Rhys; Keating, Gay; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Metcalfe, Scott

    2014-11-28

    Human-caused climate change poses an increasingly serious and urgent threat to health and health equity. Under all the climate projections reported in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, New Zealand will experience direct impacts, biologically mediated impacts, and socially mediated impacts on health. These will disproportionately affect populations that already experience disadvantage and poorer health. Without rapid global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (particularly from fossil fuels), the world will breach its carbon budget and may experience high levels of warming (land temperatures on average 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100). This level of climate change would threaten the habitability of some parts of the world because of extreme weather, limits on working outdoors, and severely reduced food production. However, well-planned action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could bring about substantial benefits to health, and help New Zealand tackle its costly burden of health inequity and chronic disease.

  18. Drought, nutrition and food security

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Greater vulnerability to infectious diseases. Population displacements and mass migrations with all ...

  19. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  20. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, Menghestab

    2005-11-29

    Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food

  1. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  2. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  3. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

  4. The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlin T Raimi

    Full Text Available To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

  5. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Yan; Nicklas Theresa A; Fisher Jennifer O; Hughes Sheryl O; Hoerr Sharon L; Shewchuk Richard M

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head S...

  6. Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, R C; Engström, K; Olin, S; Alexander, P; Arneth, A; Rounsevell, M D A

    2018-01-01

    Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

  7. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

    2014-10-23

    The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

  8. Resting egg production induced by food limitation in the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drillet, Guillaume; Hansen, Benni W.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Three populations of the copepod Acartia tonsa, two from the Baltic Sea and one from the U.S. East Coast, were compared for resting egg production at conditions of saturating and limiting food availability. All three populations produced eggs that hatched within 72 h when incubated at 17°C...... (subitaneous eggs), but the two Baltic populations in addition produced eggs that hatched at a much slower rate, in the course of a month (delayed hatching eggs [DHE]). Such eggs were not produced by the U.S. population. The fraction of DHE increased when food was limiting. Females from a Baltic population...... that were incubated individually all produced subitaneous eggs, but about half the females consistently also produced DHE. Cold storage that mimicked boreal winter conditions synchronized the hatching of DHE after extended storage, indicating that spring hatching of DHE might seed the water column...

  9. [Brazilian guidelines for marketing baby food: history, limitations and perspectives].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Renata

    2006-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to present and discuss Brazilian policy concerning actions to protect breastfeeding, especially the history, international and national background, limitations, and perspectives of the Brazilian Guidelines for the Marketing of Baby Food, Pacifiers and Bottles. The Brazilian Guidelines, which play a crucial role in protecting breastfeeding against industry marketing strategies, were based on the International Code of Marketing of Breastmilk Substitutes, proposed by the World Health Organization in 1981. The first version of the Brazilian Guidelines was released in 1988, and there were subsequent revisions in 1992 and 2001/2002. In 2006, the Guidelines became national law. However, the strides made over this period in terms of regulation have been few because the law is not always observed. Thus, it is essential that all actors involved, including government officials, manufacturers and sellers of baby food and other baby products, teaching and health professionals and their associations, international bodies, and non-governmental organizations make a commitment to enforce the current law.

  10. Rebuilding northern foodsheds, sustainable food systems, community well-being, and food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Craig Gerlach

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background . Multiple climatic, environmental and socio-economic pressures have accumulated to the point where they interfere with the ability of remote rural Alaska Native communities to achieve food security with locally harvestable food resources. The harvest of wild foods has been the historical norm, but most Alaska Native villages are transitioning to a cash economy, with increasing reliance on industrially produced, store-bought foods, and with less reliable access to and reliance on wild, country foods. While commercially available market foods provide one measure of food security, the availability and quality of market foods are subject to the vagaries and vulnerabilities of the global food system; access is dependent on one's ability to pay, is limited to what is available on the shelves of small rural stores, and, store-bought foods do not fulfill the important roles that traditional country foods play in rural communities and cultures. Country food access is also constrained by rising prices of fuel and equipment, a federal and state regulatory framework that sometimes hinders rather than helps rural subsistence users who need to access traditional food resources, a regulatory framework that is often not responsive to changes in climate, weather and seasonality, and a shifting knowledge base in younger generations about how to effectively harvest, process and store wild foods. Objective . The general objective is to provide a framework for understanding the social, cultural, ecological and political dimensions of rural Alaska Native food security, and to provide information on the current trends in rural Alaska Native food systems. Design . This research is based on our long-term ethnographic, subsistence and food systems work in coastal and interior Alaska. This includes research about the land mammal harvest, the Yukon River and coastal fisheries, community and village gardens, small livestock production and red meat systems that

  11. Rebuilding northern foodsheds, sustainable food systems, community well-being, and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip A

    2013-01-01

    Multiple climatic, environmental and socio-economic pressures have accumulated to the point where they interfere with the ability of remote rural Alaska Native communities to achieve food security with locally harvestable food resources. The harvest of wild foods has been the historical norm, but most Alaska Native villages are transitioning to a cash economy, with increasing reliance on industrially produced, store-bought foods, and with less reliable access to and reliance on wild, country foods. While commercially available market foods provide one measure of food security, the availability and quality of market foods are subject to the vagaries and vulnerabilities of the global food system; access is dependent on one's ability to pay, is limited to what is available on the shelves of small rural stores, and, store-bought foods do not fulfill the important roles that traditional country foods play in rural communities and cultures. Country food access is also constrained by rising prices of fuel and equipment, a federal and state regulatory framework that sometimes hinders rather than helps rural subsistence users who need to access traditional food resources, a regulatory framework that is often not responsive to changes in climate, weather and seasonality, and a shifting knowledge base in younger generations about how to effectively harvest, process and store wild foods. The general objective is to provide a framework for understanding the social, cultural, ecological and political dimensions of rural Alaska Native food security, and to provide information on the current trends in rural Alaska Native food systems. This research is based on our long-term ethnographic, subsistence and food systems work in coastal and interior Alaska. This includes research about the land mammal harvest, the Yukon River and coastal fisheries, community and village gardens, small livestock production and red meat systems that are scaled appropriately to village size and capacity

  12. Food Safety as a contributor to Food Security: global policy concerns & challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Kumar Chattu

    2015-12-01

    Microphysical particles such as glass and metal can be hazardous and cause serious injury to consumers. Pathogenic bacteria, viruses and toxins produced by microorganisms are all possible contaminants of food and impact food safety. Like food security, food safety is also effected by poverty and climate change. Hence Foo

  13. Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.

  14. Potential climate change favored expansion of a range limited species, Haematostaphis barteri Hook f.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Koundouonon Moutouama

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding impact of climate change on range breadth of rare species can improve the ability to anticipate their decline or expension and take appropriate conservation measures. Haematatostaphis barteri is an agroforestry species of the Sudanian centre of endemism in Africa. We investigeted impact of climate change on range of suitable habitats for this species in Benin,using the Maximum Entropy algorithm under R software. Five environmental variables were used with the regional climate model under the new Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP. Moisture Index of the Moist Quarter and Slope variability had the greatest predictive importance for the range of suitable habitats for H. barteri. Its Potential breadth was found to be currently limited to the Atacora Mountain Chain (AMC and covers 0.51% of national territory. Climate change was projected to favor expansion of suitable habitats for H. barteri by 0.12% and 0.05%, respectively for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These habitats were however mostly out of the local protected areas network. Climate change would extend range of habitats for H. barteri. Observed protection gaps suggest need for integrating this species into formal in situ, on-farm or ex situ conservation schemes.

  15. Food Vulnerability and Alluvial Farming for Food Security in Central Dry Zone Area of Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boori, M. S.; Choudhary, K.; Evers, M.; Kupriyanov, A.

    2017-10-01

    The central dry zone area of Myanmar is the most water stressed and also one of the most food insecure regions in the country. In the Dry Zone area, the total population is 10.1 million people in 54 townships, in which approximately 43 % live in below poverty line and 40-50 % of the rural population is landless. Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Myanmar as it is essential for national food security and a major source of livelihood for its people. In this region the adverse effects of climate change such as late or early onset of monsoon season, longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, increasing temperature, heavy rains, stronger typhoons, extreme spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, high intensities, limited rainfall events in the growing season, heat stress, drought, flooding, sea water intrusion, land degradation, desertification, deforestation and other natural disasters are believed to be a major constraint to food insecurity. For food vulnerability, we use following indicators: slope, precipitation, vegetation, soil, erosion, land degradation and harvest failure in ArcGIS software. The erosion is influenced by rainfall and slope, while land degradation is directly related to vegetation, drainage and soil. While harvest failure can be generate by rainfall and flood potential zones. Results show that around 45 % study area comes under very high erosion danger level, 70 % under average harvest failure, 59 % intermediate land degradation area and the overall around 45 % study area comes under insecure food vulnerability zone. Our analysis shows an increase in alluvial farming by 1745.33 km2 since 1988 to reduce the insecure food vulnerability. Food vulnerability map is also relevant to increased population and low income areas. The extreme climatic events are likely increase in frequency and magnitude of serious drought periods and extreme floods. Food insecurity is an important thing that must be reviewed because it relates to

  16. FOOD VULNERABILITY AND ALLUVIAL FARMING FOR FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL DRY ZONE AREA OF MYANMAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Boori

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The central dry zone area of Myanmar is the most water stressed and also one of the most food insecure regions in the country. In the Dry Zone area, the total population is 10.1 million people in 54 townships, in which approximately 43 % live in below poverty line and 40–50 % of the rural population is landless. Agriculture is the most important economic sector in Myanmar as it is essential for national food security and a major source of livelihood for its people. In this region the adverse effects of climate change such as late or early onset of monsoon season, longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, increasing temperature, heavy rains, stronger typhoons, extreme spatial-temporal variability of rainfall, high intensities, limited rainfall events in the growing season, heat stress, drought, flooding, sea water intrusion, land degradation, desertification, deforestation and other natural disasters are believed to be a major constraint to food insecurity. For food vulnerability, we use following indicators: slope, precipitation, vegetation, soil, erosion, land degradation and harvest failure in ArcGIS software. The erosion is influenced by rainfall and slope, while land degradation is directly related to vegetation, drainage and soil. While harvest failure can be generate by rainfall and flood potential zones. Results show that around 45 % study area comes under very high erosion danger level, 70 % under average harvest failure, 59 % intermediate land degradation area and the overall around 45 % study area comes under insecure food vulnerability zone. Our analysis shows an increase in alluvial farming by 1745.33 km2 since 1988 to reduce the insecure food vulnerability. Food vulnerability map is also relevant to increased population and low income areas. The extreme climatic events are likely increase in frequency and magnitude of serious drought periods and extreme floods. Food insecurity is an important thing that must be reviewed

  17. Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

    2015-09-07

    Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

  18. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  19. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-13

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  20. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  1. Enabling food security by verifying agricultural carbon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahiluoto, H; Smith, P; Moran, D

    2014-01-01

    Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring......Rewarding smallholders for sequestering carbon in agricultural land can improve food security while mitigating climate change. Verification of carbon offsets in food-insecure regions is possible and achievable through rigorously controlled monitoring...

  2. Limiting factors in caribou population ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Klein

    1991-10-01

    Full Text Available Caribou and wild reindeer populations fluctuate over time. On this fact there is general agreement. Factors responsible for population limitation and subsequent declines have been examined within the framework of animal population theory. There is, however, little agreement when factors limiting specific populations are generalized to Rangifer populations over broad geographic regions. Comparative examinations of wild Rangifer populations worldwide discloses that factors that have regulated those populations are highly variable between populations, apparently as a reflection of the differences in environmental variables unique to each population. Examples exist of populations where major regulating factors have been climatic extremes, predation, hunting mortality, food limitation, insects, parasites, disease, interspecific competition, and human developmental impacts or combinations of these factors. This diversity of limiting factors affecting caribou and wild reindeer populations is a reflection of the ecologial complexity of the species, a concept that has often been ignored in past efforts to reach management decisions by extrapolation from the limited localized knowledge available on the species.

  3. 76 FR 54801 - Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-02

    ... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-75,183] Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a Subsidiary of Reynolds Group Holding Limited, Grove City, PA; Notice of Revised Determination... (TAA) applicable to workers and former workers of Reynolds Food Packaging LLC, a subsidiary of Reynolds...

  4. The water-energy-food-climate-economics nexus: solving hunger and resource scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2011-12-01

    A nexus refers to the core or to interconnectivity across issues. Addressing the boundary interactions of traditional sectors in an interconnected world as human activities change the physical boundaries of land and climate is an emerging academic and governance discourse. Through contrasting examples from the US and India, I shed light on the descriptive aspects of these connections and feedbacks that define potential impacts or traps for societies, and ponder whether a massive conceptual or numerical Earth System Model can help inform outcomes, or whether there are dominant links at particular scales (physical, social, economic or biological) that characterize the emergent dynamics and define critical equilibrium or transient solutions in certain places. However, the real question is what next given the definition of the nexus? Here, I argue that given the current valuation and management structure of different resource sectors and the associated information flows and sensitivities, the interlinked energy-climate issues can emerge as useful drivers of improved productivity in water-food systems, thus promoting resource and environmental sustainability while promoting economic development. Thus, levers can be found that help steer the course of these complex interacting systems towards desirable sectoral outcomes.

  5. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  6. Prey vulnerability limits top-down control and alters reciprocal feedbacks in a subsidized model food web.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William I Atlas

    Full Text Available Resource subsidies increase the productivity of recipient food webs and can affect ecosystem dynamics. Subsidies of prey often support elevated predator biomass which may intensify top-down control and reduce the flow of reciprocal subsidies into adjacent ecosystems. However, top-down control in subsidized food webs may be limited if primary consumers posses morphological or behavioral traits that limit vulnerability to predation. In forested streams, terrestrial prey support high predator biomass creating the potential for strong top-down control, however armored primary consumers often dominate the invertebrate assemblage. Using empirically based simulation models, we tested the response of stream food webs to variations in subsidy magnitude, prey vulnerability, and the presence of two top predators. While terrestrial prey inputs increased predator biomass (+12%, the presence of armored primary consumers inhibited top-down control, and diverted most aquatic energy (∼75% into the riparian forest through aquatic insect emergence. Food webs without armored invertebrates experienced strong trophic cascades, resulting in higher algal (∼50% and detrital (∼1600% biomass, and reduced insect emergence (-90%. These results suggest prey vulnerability can mediate food web responses to subsidies, and that top-down control can be arrested even when predator-invulnerable consumers are uncommon (20% regardless of the level of subsidy.

  7. By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Van Beeck, Eduard F; Barendregt, Jan J; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2009-08-01

    There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Model input was based on body measurements from NHANES 2003-04, the CDC-2000 cut-offs for weight categories, and literature that relates advertising to consumption levels and consumption to body mass. In an additional analysis we use a Delphi study to obtain experts' estimates of the effect of advertising on consumption. Based on literature findings, the model predicts that reducing the exposure to zero would decrease the average BMI by 0.38 kg/m(-2) and lower the prevalence of obesity from 17.8 to 15.2% (95% uncertainty interval 14.8-15.6) for boys and from 15.9% to 13.5% (13.1-13.8) for girls. When estimates are based on expert opinion, these values are 11.0% (7.7-14.0) and 9.9% (7.2-12.4), respectively. This study suggests that from one in seven up to one in three obese children in the USA might not have been obese in the absence of advertising for unhealthy food on TV. Limiting the exposure of children to marketing of energy-dense food could be part of a broader effort to make children's diets healthier.

  8. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerr, Sharon L; Hughes, Sheryl O; Fisher, Jennifer O; Nicklas, Theresa A; Liu, Yan; Shewchuk, Richard M

    2009-08-13

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%), Hispanic (29%), and White (28%). The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes) was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent), indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 +/- 0.09 vs 1.45 +/- 0.09 and 1.42 +/- 0.11 cups) as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 +/- 0.05 vs 0.67 +/- 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups), respectively. Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  9. Larval growth in the dominant polychaete Polydora ciliata is food-limited in a eutrophic Danish estuary (Isefjord)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Troels Møller; Almeda, Rodrigo; Fotel, Frank Lech

    2010-01-01

    Food limitation in larval growth of the spionid polychaete Polydora ciliata was examined in a typical eutrophic estuary, Isefjord, in Denmark. In the field, food availability and the energetic requirements of the P. ciliata larval population were measured during 2 different periods in 2004 and 20...

  10. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  11. Black Sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet and food security. Bio-climate Scenarios in bananas under the effect of climate change in Ciego de Avila, Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hernández-Mansilla Alexis Augusto

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of food sovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those of economic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego de Avila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The key indicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed ​​" and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sums speeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State" with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments and the plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecological principles, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthen the climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem.

  12. Climate change impacts: an Ontario perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortsch, L.

    1995-11-01

    Significant changes in the climate system which are likely to affect biophysical, social and economic systems in various ways, were discussed. Trends in greenhouse gas levels show that during the 20. century, human activity has changed the make-up of the atmosphere and its greenhouse effect properties. A pilot study on the impacts of climate change identified changes in the water regime such as declines in net basin supply, lake levels and outflows, as important concerns. These changes would have impacts on water quality, wetlands, municipal water supply, hydroelectric power generation, commercial shipping, tourism and recreation, and to a lesser extent, on food productions. Climate impact assessments suggest that world conditions will change significantly as a result. Those with less resources are likely to be most affected by climate change, and the impacts on other regions of the world will be more significant to Ontario than the direct impacts on Ontario itself. In an effort to keep pace with global changes, Ontario will have to limit emissions, conduct research in innovative technology and develop greater awareness of the risk of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

  13. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    crop yields (about 20% in a decade, IPCC 2014), some regions in the world, particularly boreal ones, will benefit from temperature warming due to an increasing of growing season length and mild climate conditions. Several crops not usually suited for growing in northern latitude region will find here favorable conditions and potentially new economic opportunities will rise. Under new climate scenarios we discuss the potential for Russia to expand its agro-food sector and becoming a new important player of future global food supply. We analyze regional climate scenarios at high spatial resolution (8km) and project in the current century the new distribution of agro-ecological zones with the implication of new crops expansion. We also discuss limitation of water supply which may derive from increased evapotranspiration and water demands for irrigation. A final discussion is about the technological challenges and transformation needed in the Russian agricultural sector to take this opportunity. The question is about available technologies, barriers to implement innovation, financial instruments to prevent climate risks and moreover the required agriculture transformation to prevent environmental impacts of agriculture intensification.

  14. Asssociations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited inc...

  15. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semi-arid climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, V.; Schoonejans, J.; Opfergelt, S.; Ameijeiras-Marino, Y.; Christl, M.

    2016-12-01

    On Earth, the Critical Zone supports terrestrial life, being the near-surface environment where interactions between the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere take place Quantitative understanding of the interaction between mechanical rock breakdown, chemical weathering, and physical erosion is essential for unraveling Earth's biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we explore the role of soil water balance on regulating soil chemical weathering under water deficit regimes. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We present and compare quantitative information on soil weathering, chemical depletion and total denudation that were derived based on geochemical mass balance, 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and U-series disequilibria. Soil production rates determined based on U-series isotopes (238U, 234U, 230Th and 226Ra) are of the same order of magnitude as 10Be-derived denudation rates, suggesting steady state soil thickness, in two out of three sampling sites. The chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (˜5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Soil weathering extents increase (nonlinearly) with soil thickness and decrease with increasing surface denudation rates, consistent with kinetically limited or controlled weathering. Our study suggests that soil residence time and water availability limit weathering processes in semi-arid climates, which has not been validated previously with field data. An important implication of this finding is that climatic regimes may strongly regulate soil weathering by modulating soil solute fluxes.

  16. 20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullman, L

    2001-03-01

    Climate warming by ca. 0.8 degree C between the late-19th and late-20th century, although with some fluctuations, has forced multispecies elevational tree-limit advance by > 100 m for the principal tree species in the Swedish part of the Scandinavian mountain range. Predominantly, these processes imply growth in height of old-established individuals and less frequently upslope migration of new individuals. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s. The magnitude of total 20th century tree-limit rise varies with topoclimate and is mainly confined to wind-sheltered and snow-rich segments of the landscape. Thickening of birch tree stands in the "advance belt" has profoundly altered the general character of the subalpine/low alpine landscape and provides a positive feedback loop for further progressive change and resilience to short-term cooling episodes. All upslope tree-limit shifts and associated landscape transformations during the 20th century have occurred without appreciable time lags, which constitutes knowledge fundamental to the generation of realistic models concerning vegetation responses to potential future warming. The new and elevated pine tree-limit may be the highest during the past 4000 14C years. Thus, it is tentatively inferred that the 20th century climate is unusually warm in a late-Holocene perspective.

  17. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon

    2015-10-01

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO 2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  18. Quo vadimus - future prospects for the earth's population. Comments on the worldwide situation concerning available energy and food sources, the consequences of climatic change, and available water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Partenscky, H.W. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Franzius Inst.

    2003-07-01

    The problems of our early future have already been critically examined in the years 1972 und 1974 in reports to the ''Club of Rome'' by D. Meadows in ''The Limits of Growth'' and by Eduard Pestel and M. Mesarovic in ''Mankind at the Turning Point'', and prognoses were given for the coming century. Nothing concerning those alarming results has changed substantially from then up to the present day. The frigthening increase in the population of our earth, our limited energy and food sources, the climatic changes with all their resultant symptoms, the limited availability of water and increasing environmental pollution still remain the problems and danger with which science and international politics must come to terms. This will be the case to an even greater extent in the future. (orig.)

  19. Food System Dynamics and Food Insecurity in Humla, Nepal Himalaya

    OpenAIRE

    Gautam, Yograj

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the challenges underlying food security of the Himalayan smallholder farmers focusing on three interrelated dimensions: the impact of multiple environmental and socio-economic stressors on food system, access to and role of nonfarm income sources, and the role of humanitarian and development interventions on food security and livelihoods. The results suggested that the food systems are driven by synergistic impacts of climate change and changes in forest governance through...

  20. Contrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution: uncertain future under a drier climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Forner, Alicia; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-12-01

    Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

  1. Associations among parental feeding styles and children's food intake in families with limited incomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yan

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although general parenting styles and restrictive parental feeding practices have been associated with children's weight status, few studies have examined the association between feeding styles and proximal outcomes such as children's food intake, especially in multi-ethnic families with limited incomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of parental feeding styles and young children's evening food intake in a multiethnic sample of families in Head Start. Methods Participants were 715 Head Start children and their parents from Texas and Alabama representing three ethnic groups: African-American (43%, Hispanic (29%, and White (28%. The Caregivers Feeding Styles Questionnaire (Hughes was used to characterize authoritative, authoritarian (referent, indulgent or uninvolved feeding styles. Food intake in several food groups was calculated from 3 days of dietary recalls for the child for evening food intakes from 3 PM until bedtime. Results Compared to children of authoritarian parents, intakes of fruits, juice and vegetables were lowest among children of indulgent or uninvolved parents (1.77 ± 0.09 vs 1.45 ± 0.09 and 1.42 ± 0.11 cups as were intakes of dairy foods (0.84 ± 0.05 vs 0.67 ± 0.05 and 0.63+0.06 cups, respectively. Conclusion Findings suggest that permissive parent feeding styles like indulgent or uninvolved relate negatively to children's intake of nutrient-rich foods fruit, 100% fruit juice, vegetables and dairy foods from 3 PM until bedtime.

  2. Interactions of Climate Change and Nitrogen Management for Optimizing Crop Productivity and Food Security while Minimizing Nitrogen Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Suddick, E. C.

    2012-12-01

    Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to huge increases in use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuels, resulting in large releases of N as air and water pollution. In its numerous chemical forms, N plays a critical role in all aspects of climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Here we report on a multi-authored, interdisciplinary technical report on climate-nitrogen interactions submitted to the US National Climate Assessment as part of a Research Coordination Network activity. Management of the N cycle not only affects emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), but also impacts carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), through effects on carbon cycling processes in forests and soils and the effects on atmospheric reactions of ozone (O3) and CH4. While some of these direct and indirect N effects have a short-term cooling effect, the warming effects of N2O dominate at long time scales. The challenges of mitigating N2O emissions are substantially different from those for CO2 and CH4, because N is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. On one hand, improved agricultural nutrient management can confer some adaptive capacity of crops to climatic variability, but, on the other hand, increased climatic variability will render the task more difficult to manage nutrients for the optimization of crop productivity while minimizing N losses to the environment. Higher air temperatures will result in a "climate penalty" for air quality mitigation efforts, because larger NOX emissions reductions will be needed to achieve the same reductions of O3 pollution under higher temperatures, thus imposing further challenges to avoid harmful impacts on human health and crop productivity. Changes in river discharge, due to summer drought and to extreme precipitation events, will affect the transport of N from agricultural fields to

  3. What Food is to be Kept Safe and for Whom? Food-Safety Governance in an Unsafe Food System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha McMahon

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that discussion of new food-safety governance should be framed by the realization that the dominant food system within which food-safety governance is designed to makes food safe is itself a structural and systemic sources of food un-safety, poor health and a future of food insecurity for many. For some, an appropriate policy response lies in addressing the connections between the food system and diseases such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. For others it means subsuming food-safety governance within food security governance. For yet others, safe food implies food sovereignty governance and the primacy of a climate change resilient food system. Conventional approaches to food-safety governance are typically framed within a liability model of responsibility that has limited usefulness for addressing institutional, structural or systemic sources of harm such as those critics increasingly attribute to the dominant food system and which are not amenable to remedy by food-safety governance as it is widely understood. One cannot identify critical hazard points where risk is to be managed. These are food-system safety challenges. Because food-safety governance is so deeply political there needs to be greater attention to issues of governance rather than the more usual focus on the technologies of food-safety. Feminist political theorists have much to contribute to re-thinking food-safety governance in the context of diversity and the complexities of power. One could usefully start with the simple questions, “what food is to be kept-safe, for whom and who is the subject of food-safety governance in a post-Westphalian political economic order?” These questions can help unpack both the narrow parochialism and the misleading universalism of food-safety talk. This paper answers that neither the citizens of a particular state (or network of states nor the falsely universalizing identity of ‘the consumer’ are adequate answers

  4. Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

    2011-01-01

    Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

  5. 21 CFR 880.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 880.9 Section 880.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification...

  6. 21 CFR 862.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 862.9 Section 862.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket...

  7. Food and Nutrition Security Trends, Determinants and Challenges in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.; Burgess, N.

    2016-12-01

    In the last 20 years many developing countries have made considerable progress towards improving food security and nutrition. However, progress across countries and dimensions of food security have been uneven. While challenges to food security in the context of environmental and climate changes have been studied widely, limited evidence exists for their implications for food and nutrition security in tropical deltaic regions. Delta areas are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due the specific environmental, climatic and human development factors affecting agricultural production and fisheries. These include coastal flooding and storm surges, deforestation, changes to river flow patterns and water tables, increased soil salinity and water quality degradation. Due to the large number of people living in deltaic regions and their importance in regional food production, there is a pressing need for a better understanding on how environmental factors affect food security and malnutrition. This study explores the potential impacts and challenges posed by environmental and climate change on food and nutrition security in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. This delta is one of the world's largest delta's draining land from Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal. The delta makes up around two thirds of the country of Bangladesh, a country facing high levels of child undernutrition, child mortality and a high number of people living under extreme poverty. By combining spatially explicit data from the 2007 and 2011 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Bangladesh with satellite remote sensing data (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) for relevant growing seasons of rice, the strength of association between this climate related environmental variable and indicators of child nutrition (wasting and stunting) in the delta were evaluated. Our results show that NDVI for the growing season of rice can be used to determine trends in rice production

  8. The social environment of schools and adolescent nutrition: associations between the school nutrition climate and adolescents' eating behaviors and body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvjetan, Branko; Utter, Jennifer; Robinson, Elizabeth; Denny, Simon

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the association between the school nutrition climate and students' eating behaviors and body mass index (BMI). Data were collected as part of Youth'07, a nationally representative health survey of high school students in New Zealand. Overall, 9107 randomly selected students from 96 randomly selected schools participated. School-level measures were created by aggregating students' reports within schools. Analyses were conducted using multilevel modeling, accounting for student-level characteristics. There was a positive association between the school nutrition climate and students' consumption of fruits and vegetables. This relationship was statistically significant after controlling for the background characteristics of students. There were no associations between the school nutrition climate and students' junk food consumption or BMI. The school nutrition climate appears to have a positive influence on adolescents' healthy eating behaviors (fruit and vegetable intake), but a limited effect on unhealthy eating behaviors and ultimately body weight. This may reflect the pervasiveness of junk food in the environments of adolescents outside of school and the difficulty in limiting its consumption. © 2014, American School Health Association.

  9. Designing an Africa-EU research and innovation collaboration platform on climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tostensen, Arne; Monteverde Haakonsen, Jan; Hughes, Mike

    Climate change is arguably the most significant of a set of interconnected global challenges threatening water resources and food security. In particular, the relationship between water resources, food systems and climate change is tightly coupled, and improved food security under climate change...... this process more effective by developing a proposition for a platform to strengthen Africa-EU research and innovation collaboration on climate change....

  10. Intra- and Trans-Generational Costs of Reduced Female Body Size Caused by Food Limitation Early in Life in Mites

    OpenAIRE

    Walzer, Andreas; Schausberger, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background Food limitation early in life may be compensated for by developmental plasticity resulting in accelerated development enhancing survival at the expense of small adult body size. However and especially for females in non-matching maternal and offspring environments, being smaller than the standard may incur considerable intra- and trans-generational costs. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we evaluated the costs of small female body size induced by food limitation early in life i...

  11. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enright, W.

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  12. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  13. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen CJ; Lantinga, Egbert A

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

  14. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

    2017-07-01

    The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

  15. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2011-01-25

    Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

  16. 21 CFR 864.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 864.9 Section 864.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES HEMATOLOGY AND PATHOLOGY...

  17. Etude Climat no. 39 'More than 800 agricultural and agri-food sites affected by the EU ETS'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foucherot, Claudine; Bellassen, Valentin

    2013-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Agriculture accounts for 9% of Europe's anthropogenic emissions, counting only emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from cattle, crops and pasture. These emissions have two characteristics making their inclusion in the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) difficult: they are diffuse and depend on a range of fairly complex pedo-climatic factors. Taking into consideration the whole of the agricultural sector, including upstream activities such as production of fertilizer, phyto-sanitary products, animal feed etc., as well as downstream emissions, dominated by the agri-food sector, and also emissions linked to energy consumption by farming installations, the sector's emissions contribution increases considerably. Within this expanded scope, some emissions sources are included in the EU ETS - mainly agri-food industries, but also producers of fertilizer, heated greenhouses and knackers' yards. Even if the proportion of the agricultural and agri-food sector's emissions covered by the emissions trading scheme is minimal, with just 1.5% of all emissions falling within the scope of the EU ETS, more than 800 industrial sites are covered, accounting for 8% of installations covered by the system. The agricultural and agri-food sector are among the net beneficiaries of the EU ETS in the first two phases (2005-2012), with a surplus of 33 million allowances over the period 2008-2011. This surplus, combined with gains from trading in allowances and credits, represents an estimated asset of 495 million euros. Although it has not been fully exploited on the market, this asset largely exceeds the cost of transactions associated with emissions monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) procedures and compliance work, which is estimated at 30 million euros over the same period. The emission trading scheme has therefore been

  18. Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is

  19. Envisioning Urban Farming for Food Security during the Climate Change Era. Vertical Farm within Highly Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, Krystyna; Jarmusz, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    Global climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security including food production in the following decades. This paper is focused on a new possibility and advisability of creating a systemic solution to resolve the problem of food security in highly-urbanized areas. The first part of the paper deal with historical development vertical farms ideas and defines the main environmental and spatial constrains also it indicates that vertical farms are going to be part of the future horticultural production. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by authors. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights an integrating large-scale horticultural production directly into the cities, where the most of the food consumption takes place. In conclusions emphasizes, that the design will force architects, engineers and urban planners to completely revise and redefine contemporary design process and understanding of the idea-fix of sustainable design. To successfully migrate food production from extensive rural areas to dense environment of city centres, a new holistic approach, integrating knowledge and advances of multiple fields of science, have to develop.

  20. 21 CFR 878.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 878.9 Section 878.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  1. 21 CFR 884.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 884.9 Section 884.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  2. 21 CFR 876.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 876.9 Section 876.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG..., and Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510...

  3. Climate Smart Agriculture through Isotopic and Nuclear Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montavon, Matthew

    2014-07-15

    The present world population of 7 billion is expected to reach 9 billion by the year 2050. Most of this increase will occur in developing countries, where the majority of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. With two billion additional people to feed in the next 40 years, there is an urgent need for the world to grow 70% more food to feed everyone adequately. This is a tough challenge, as the effects of climate change are expected to worsen, bringing more droughts, floods, heat waves, unreliable rainfall distribution and extreme weather events, all of which threaten food security and make agricultural production unpredictable. To address these critical issues of climate change and population growth, FAO and the global scientific community are helping farmers to develop climate-smart agricultural practices and systems which can adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability (i.e., climate change adaptation), while having the potential to increase food production and at the same time reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (i.e., climate change mitigation); which potentially contribute to climate change.

  4. Climate Smart Agriculture through Isotopic and Nuclear Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montavon, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    The present world population of 7 billion is expected to reach 9 billion by the year 2050. Most of this increase will occur in developing countries, where the majority of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. With two billion additional people to feed in the next 40 years, there is an urgent need for the world to grow 70% more food to feed everyone adequately. This is a tough challenge, as the effects of climate change are expected to worsen, bringing more droughts, floods, heat waves, unreliable rainfall distribution and extreme weather events, all of which threaten food security and make agricultural production unpredictable. To address these critical issues of climate change and population growth, FAO and the global scientific community are helping farmers to develop climate-smart agricultural practices and systems which can adapt to the impacts of climate change and variability (i.e., climate change adaptation), while having the potential to increase food production and at the same time reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (i.e., climate change mitigation); which potentially contribute to climate change

  5. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesimaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-03-15

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  6. Policy instruments to decrease the climate impact of housing, personal transport and food. Detailed instrument descriptions; Ohjauskeinoja asumisen, henkiloeliikenteen ja ruoan ilmastovaikutusten hillintaeaen. Yksityiskohtaiset ohjauskeinokuvaukset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiskanen, E.; Perrels, A.; Nissinen, A.; Berghaell, E.; Liesmaa, V.; Mattinen, M. (eds.)

    2012-07-01

    Reducing consumption volumes or introducing climate conscious consumption patterns can be efficient ways to mitigate climate change. Twenty existing policy instruments affecting the greenhouse gas emissions of housing, passenger traffic and food are described in this report of the KUILU-project. The policy instruments and the possibilities to develop effective instrument packages were discussed in two expert workshops, the results of which are presented in annexes of this report. There are already several policy instruments that target on housing and passenger traffic. Their differences in estimated emission reductions are large, which can ease the prioritization and selection of the instruments for further development. So far, only one policy instrument exists that aims to reduce the climate impacts of food choices, namely a Council of State Decision of Principle on Promoting Sustainability in Public Purchasing. However, it includes several measures that can be used to influence private companies and citizens, and thus it opens the field of policy instrument for mitigation of climate impacts of food. According to the expert survey, the most effective policy instrument involved in the analysis was building regulations, and the four most effective instruments after this were the following: gradated procurement tax of cars based on emissions, gradation of car tax, taxation of transport fuels, energy taxes of housing, and the effect of ecodesign directive on appliances. The effectiveness of policy instruments related to food was assessed to be on average level. The five least effective instruments were: EU energy label, voluntary energy experts, the tax of beverage packing, energy certificates, and subsidies for energy efficiency reparation in buildings. However, the expert opinions on the effectiveness of the policy instruments varied significantly. After this report, the KUILU project continued with an analysis of the policy instrument packages and with suggestions

  7. Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

    2018-04-01

    Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

  8. Strengthening Multidisciplinary Research on Climate and Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Tom; Li, Jianping; Alverson, Keith

    2014-08-01

    The difficulty with multidisciplinary research is finding common ground for scientists, whose approach to a particular scientific problem can differ radically. For example, there is agreement between the geophysical community and the food science and technology community that food security is an important issue. However, the climate change community sees possible solutions coming from more detailed studies on the links between climate change and agriculture, whereas the food science community sees possible solutions emerging from studies of food logistics and supply chains.

  9. Climate change impacts on natural toxins in food production systems, exemplified by deoxynivalenol in wheat and diarrhetic shellfish toxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, J E; Naustvoll, L-J; Friocourt, Y; Mengelers, M J B; Christensen, J H

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect food and feed safety, including the occurrence of natural toxins in primary crop and seafood production; however, to date, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change effects on mycotoxin contamination of cereal grains cultivated in the terrestrial area of north west Europe, and on the frequency of harmful algal blooms and contamination of shellfish with marine biotoxins in the North Sea coastal zone. The study focused on contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol, and on abundance of Dinophysis spp. and the possible relationship with diarrhetic shellfish toxins. The study used currently available data and models. Global and regional climate models were combined with models of crop phenology, mycotoxin prediction models, hydrodynamic models and ecological models, with the output of one model being used as input for the other. In addition, statistical data analyses using existing national datasets from the study area were performed to obtain information on the relationships between Dinophysis spp. cell counts and contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish toxins as well as on frequency of cereal cropping. In this paper, a summary of the study is presented, and overall conclusions and recommendations are given. Climate change projections for the years 2031-2050 were used as the starting point of the analyses relative to a preceding 20-year baseline period from which the climate change signal was calculated. Results showed that, in general, climate change effects lead to advanced flowering and harvest of wheat, and increased risk of contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol. Blooms of dinoflagellates were estimated to occur more often. If the group of Dinophysis spp. behaves similarly to other flagellates in the future then frequency of harmful algal blooms of Dinophysis spp. may also increase, but consequences for contamination of shellfish with diarrhetic shellfish

  10. 21 CFR 874.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 874.9 Section 874.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  11. 21 CFR 870.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 870.9 Section 870.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  12. 21 CFR 868.9 - Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Limitations of exemptions from section 510(k) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the act). 868.9 Section 868.9 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG... Cosmetic Act (the act). The exemption from the requirement of premarket notification (section 510(k) of the...

  13. Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A

    2016-12-01

    Environmental conditions in early life are known to have impacts on later health outcomes, but causal mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth to identify the trimesters of gestation and periods of infancy when climate variation is linked to attained height later in life. We find significant differences by sex: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in the first three months after birth. Each 100-point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-for-age z-score (HAZ) measured at age 12-59 months of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size similar to that of moving within the distribution of household wealth by close to one quintile for boys and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is approximately 200-300 points during the 2000-2011 study period, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to one to three quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; in households with toilets, there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic conditions that facilitate disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a climate effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption derives primarily from their own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regression results reveal no significant artefactual correlations. The timing and sex-specificity of climatic effects are consistent with previous studies, while the protective effects of household sanitation and food markets are

  14. Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

    2014-12-01

    In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

  15. Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Farming and Response Solutions in Semiarid Area of Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Hong-li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on the agriculture production in semi-arid areas of Northwest, the major drought-resistant technology, the mechanism of increasing grain production were analyzed to explore technical solutions to retort the future climate change, future development of rainfed agriculture, and provide reference for food security. The results showed that the impact of future climate change on crop growth had main three aspects: Firstly, higher temperatures resulted in lower crop yield and quality decline; Secondly, changes in precipitation and precipitation patterns resulted in drought/flooding problems; Thirdly, meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather lead to fluctuations of food production. To adapt or mitigate these adverse effects, increase use efficiency of limited rainfall, optimize soil structure, improve soil fertility, enhance withstanding environmental change ability of crop-soil system, mitigate the impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest China, the mainly solutions were: (1 Covering gathered precipitation, improve the ability to accumulate soil moisture, change the distribution of soil moisture, regulate the migration and improve the infiltration of precipitation, thus “adjusting water” to adapt to precipitation changes; (2 Optimizing soil structure, physical and chemical properties by soil fertilization, thus “regulating soil” to improve the ability of crop-soil system against to environmental changes, in order to stabilize productivity of rainfed agriculture; (3 Integrate “adjusting water” and “regulating soil” technology, forming technical system of “coordination of water and soil” to comprehensively response to future climate change, mitigate the adverse impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest, China.

  16. Diversifying Food Systems in the Pursuit of Sustainable Food Production and Healthy Diets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, Sangam L; Lammerts van Bueren, Edith T; Ceccarelli, Salvatore; Grando, Stefania; Upadhyaya, Hari D; Ortiz, Rodomiro

    2017-10-01

    Increasing demand for nutritious, safe, and healthy food because of a growing population, and the pledge to maintain biodiversity and other resources, pose a major challenge to agriculture that is already threatened by a changing climate. Diverse and healthy diets, largely based on plant-derived food, may reduce diet-related illnesses. Investments in plant sciences will be necessary to design diverse cropping systems balancing productivity, sustainability, and nutritional quality. Cultivar diversity and nutritional quality are crucial. We call for better cooperation between food and medical scientists, food sector industries, breeders, and farmers to develop diversified and nutritious cultivars that reduce soil degradation and dependence on external inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, and to increase adaptation to climate change and resistance to emerging pests. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Peri-urban areas and food-energy-water nexus sustainability and resilience strategies in the age of climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Magoni, Marcello; Menoni, Scira

    2017-01-01

    This book explores the nexus among food, energy and water in peri-urban areas, demonstrating how relevant this nexus is for environmental sustainability. In particular it examines the effective management of the nexus in the face of the risks and trade-offs of mitigation policies, and as a mean to create resilience to climate change. The book delineates strategies and actions necessary to develop and protect our natural resources and improve the functionality of the nexus, such as: integrated management of the major resources that characterize the metabolism of a city, stronger coordination among stakeholders who often weight differently the services that are relevant to their individual concerns, integration of efforts towards environmental protection, adaptation to and prevention of climate change and disaster risks mitigation.

  18. When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T

    2018-01-01

    Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen

  19. Diversifying crops for food and nutrition security - a case of teff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Acga; Mayes, Sean; Dalle, Gemedo; Demissew, Sebsebe; Massawe, Festo

    2017-02-01

    There are more than 50000 known edible plants in the world, yet two-thirds of global plant-derived food is provided by only three major cereals - maize (Zea mays), wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oryza sativa). The dominance of this triad, now considered truly global food commodities, has led to a decline in the number of crop species contributing to global food supplies. Our dependence on only a few crop species limits our capability to deal with challenges posed by the adverse effects of climate change and the consequences of dietary imbalance. Emerging evidence suggests that climate change will cause shifts in crop production and yield loss due to more unpredictable and hostile weather patterns. One solution to this problem is through the wider use of underutilised (also called orphan or minor) crops to diversify agricultural systems and food sources. In addition to being highly nutritious, underutilised crops are resilient in natural and agricultural conditions, making them a suitable surrogate to the major crops. One such crop is teff [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter], a warm-season annual cereal with the tiniest grain in the world. Native to Ethiopia and often the sustenance for local small farmers, teff thrives in both moisture-stressed and waterlogged soil conditions, making it a dependable staple within and beyond its current centre of origin. Today, teff is deemed a healthy wheat alternative in the West and is sought-after by health aficionados and those with coeliac disease or gluten sensitivity. The blooming market for healthy food is breathing new life into this underutilised crop, which has received relatively limited attention from mainstream research perhaps due to its 'orphan crop' status. This review presents the past, present and future of an ancient grain with a potential beyond its size. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  20. National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    there would be too much. Over the coming decades, projected climate change likely will cause Australia, portions of India , and much of inland China...significant potential water , food, and energy insecurity; political instability; extreme weather events; and other manifestations of climate change ...production, and human sustenance. In light of projected climate change , stresses on the water -food-energy nexus are a mounting security concern

  1. Examining the interaction between food outlets and outdoor food advertisements with primary school food environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, Mat; Pearce, Jamie; Day, Peter

    2009-09-01

    Schools are commonly seen as a site of intervention to improve children's nutrition, and prevent excess weight gain. Schools may have limited influence over children's diets; however, with home and community environments also exerting an influence within schools. This study considered the environment of food outlets and outdoor food advertisements surrounding four case study primary schools in New Zealand, and the impact of that external environment on within-school food environments. The shortest travel route between school and home addresses, and the number of food outlets and advertisements passed on that route, was calculated for each student. Interviews with school management were conducted. The schools with a higher percentage of students passing food outlets and advertisements considered that their presence impacted on efforts within schools to improve the food environment. Limiting students' exposure to food outlets and outdoor food adverts through travel route planning, reducing advertising, or limiting the location of food outlets surrounding schools could be explored as intervention options to support schools in promoting nutrition.

  2. Climate change and One Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

    2018-06-01

    The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

  3. Crop responses to climatic variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porter, John R.; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2005-01-01

    The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop...... production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important...... for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal...

  4. Energy security for India: Biofuels, energy efficiency and food productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunatilake, Herath; Roland-Holst, David; Sugiyarto, Guntur

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of biofuel as a renewable energy source offers opportunities for significant climate change mitigation and greater energy independence to many countries. At the same time, biofuel represents the possibility of substitution between energy and food. For developing countries like India, which imports over 75% of its crude oil, fossil fuels pose two risks—global warming pollution and long-term risk that oil prices will undermine real living standards. This paper examines India's options for managing energy price risk in three ways: biofuel development, energy efficiency promotion, and food productivity improvements. Our salient results suggest that biodiesel shows promise as a transport fuel substitute that can be produced in ways that fully utilize marginal agricultural resources and hence promote rural livelihoods. First-generation bioethanol, by contrast, appears to have a limited ability to offset the impacts of oil price hikes. Combining the biodiesel expansion policy with energy efficiency improvements and food productivity increases proved to be a more effective strategy to enhance both energy and food security, help mitigate climate change, and cushion the economy against oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigate the role of biofuels in India applying a CGE model. • Biodiesel enhances energy security and improve rural livelihoods. • Sugarcane ethanol does not show positive impact on the economy. • Biodiesel and energy efficiency improvements together provide better results. • Food productivity further enhances biodiesel, and energy efficiency impacts

  5. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  6. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  7. Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, E D; Madsen, M S

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling...... the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards....... two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering...

  8. Homage to Hersteinsson and Macdonald: climate warming and resource subsidies cause red fox range expansion and Arctic fox decline

    OpenAIRE

    Elmhagen, Bodil; Berteaux, Dominique; Burgess, Robert. M.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Gallant, Daniel; Henttonen, Heikki; Ims, Rolf Anker; Killengreen, Siw Turid; Niemimaa, Jukka; Norén, Karin; Ollila, Tuomo; Rodnikova, Anna Y.; Sokolov, Aleksandr A.; Sokolova, Natasha A.; Stickney, Alice A.

    2017-01-01

    Source at http://doi.org/10.1080/17518369.2017.1319109 Climate change can have a marked effect on the distribution and abundance of some species, as well as their interspecific interactions. In 1992, before ecological effects of anthropogenic climate change had developed into a topical research field, Hersteinsson and Macdonald published a seminal paper hypothesizing that the northern distribution limit of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is determined by food availability and ultim...

  9. Impact of climate change on microbial safety of leafy green vegetables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    Climate change is generally recognized as a major threat to humans and the environment. With respect to food production, climate change does not only affect crop production or food security, but possibly also effects on food safety by affecting the prevalence and levels of

  10. Functional Limitations, Depression, and Cash Assistance are Associated with Food Insecurity among Older Urban Adults in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilar-Compte, Mireya; Martínez-Martínez, Oscar; Orta-Alemán, Dania; Perez-Escamilla, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    To examine factors associated with food insecurity among urban older adults (65 years and older). Three hundred and fifty two older adults attending community centers in a neighborhood of Mexico City were surveyed for food insecurity, functional impairments, health and mental health status, cash-transfer assistance, socio-demographic characteristics, social isolation, and the built food environment. Having at least primary education and receiving cash-transfers were significantly associated with a lower probability of being moderately-severely food insecure (OR=0.478 and 0.597, respectively). The probability of moderate-severe food insecurity was significantly higher among elderly at risk of depression (OR=2.843), those with at least one activity of daily living impaired (OR=2.177) and those with at least one instrumental activity of daily living impaired (OR=1.785). Higher educational attainment and cash-transfers may have a positive influence on reducing food insecurity. Depression and functional limitations may increase the likelihood of food insecurity among older adults.

  11. Climate friendly dietary guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....

  12. Gathering storm. The human cost of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowell, O.; Chang, I.

    2000-09-01

    Friends of the Earth International demonstrates the urgency of action needed to halt climate change (Part 1). Personal testimonies from survivors of Hurricane Mitch, the Mozambique floods and other events give a chilling insight of what may lie ahead for more of us in the future (Part 2). Extreme high-temperature events, droughts, floods, cyclones and storm surges with knock-on effects for ecosystems, fires, pest outbreaks, human health, our settlements and food security (Part 3). Part 4 looks at which countries are blocking action on climate change and proposes solutions for the way forward. Much deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, based on an equitable sharing of the atmosphere, are needed if dangerous climate change is to be averted. Global protection will only happen when all parties at the climate summit acknowledge the real risks of climate change and their own responsibilities in improving the situation through emissions reductions. Industrialised countries must make much deeper cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions of as much as 80-90% to keep climate change within acceptable limits while allowing developing countries space to develop, Friends of the Earth International calls on governments to ensure that decisions taken at the CoP-6 in The Hague, Netherlands (1) Ensure that the Kyoto Protocol results in real and permanent emissions reductions through the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures; (2) Commit industrialised countries to achieving 80% of their Kyoto objective through emissions reductions at home; and (3) Enshrine principles of equity in the framework for emission reductions in the next and future commitment periods based on an equal per capita approach and ecological limits [nl

  13. Hydrology of a Water‐Limited Forest under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Everton Alves Rodrigues Pinheiro

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Given the strong interactions between climate and vegetation, climate change effects on natural and agricultural ecosystems are common objects of research. Reduced water availability is predicted to take place across large regions of the globe, including Northeastern Brazil. The Caatinga, a complex tropical water‐limited ecosystem and the only exclusively Brazilian biome, prevails as the main natural forest of this region. The aim of this study was to examine the soil‐water balance for this biome under a climate‐warming scenario and with reduced rainfall. Climate change projections were assessed from regional circulation models earlier applied to the Brazilian territory. A statistical climate data generator was used to compose a synthetic weather dataset, which was later integrated into a hydrological model. Compared to simulations with current climate for the same site, under the scenario with climate change, transpiration was enhanced by 36%, and soilwater evaporation and interception were reduced by 16% and 34%, respectively. The greatest change in soil‐water components was observed for deep drainage, accounting only for 2% of the annual rainfall. Soil‐plant‐atmosphere fluxes seem to be controlled by the top layer (0.0-0.2 m, which provides 80% of the total transpiration, suggesting that the Caatinga forest may become completely soil‐water pulse dominated under scenarios of reduced water availability.

  14. Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hare, W.; Cramer, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Battaglini, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2011-01-01

    Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of

  15. Limited Dissemination of Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase- and Plasmid-Encoded AmpC-Producing Escherichia coli from Food and Farm Animals, Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börjesson, Stefan; Ny, Sofia; Egervärn, Maria; Bergström, Jakob; Rosengren, Åsa; Englund, Stina; Löfmark, Sonja; Byfors, Sara

    2016-04-01

    Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- and plasmid-encoded ampC (pAmpC)-producing Enterobacteriaceae might spread from farm animals to humans through food. However, most studies have been limited in number of isolates tested and areas studied. We examined genetic relatedness of 716 isolates from 4,854 samples collected from humans, farm animals, and foods in Sweden to determine whether foods and farm animals might act as reservoirs and dissemination routes for ESBL/pAmpC-producing Escherichia coli. Results showed that clonal spread to humans appears unlikely. However, we found limited dissemination of genes encoding ESBL/pAmpC and plasmids carrying these genes from foods and farm animals to healthy humans and patients. Poultry and chicken meat might be a reservoir and dissemination route to humans. Although we found no evidence of clonal spread of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli from farm animals or foods to humans, ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli with identical genes and plasmids were present in farm animals, foods, and humans.

  16. Principles for the limitation of releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants to the atmosphere. A model of food chain system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensko, J.; Stpiczynska, Z.

    1976-01-01

    On the basis of reference data the principles are set up for the limitation of releases of radioactive substances from nuclear power plants to the environment to maintain the radiation exposure of population to the level of accepted dose limits. The main attention is paid to the transfer of radionuclides released through food chain to man. For that purpose the mathematical model of population exposure by food chain which relates the radiation doses to the activity of radionuclides released is presented. The Laplace transformation is used to simplify the solution of the differential equations. It is shown that the estimation of the population exposure with the aid of a food chain mathematical model not only gives the permissible limits of release but also indicates the ways of proper radiological control program in the environment of nuclear installations. (author)

  17. Impact of limited cognitive capacity and feelings of guilt and excuse on the endowment effects for hedonic and utilitarian types of food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonides, G.; Cramer, L.

    2013-01-01

    Consumer food choices may partly be explained by the endowment effect. Here, we focus on the influence of limited cognitive capacity on loss aversion related to food choices. We also investigate the effects of anticipated feelings on food choices. Experiments with 1614 pupils of secondary schools

  18. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  19. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  20. Determination of mycotoxins in foods: current state of analytical methods and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köppen, Robert; Koch, Matthias; Siegel, David; Merkel, Stefan; Maul, Ronald; Nehls, Irene

    2010-05-01

    Mycotoxins are natural contaminants produced by a range of fungal species. Their common occurrence in food and feed poses a threat to the health of humans and animals. This threat is caused either by the direct contamination of agricultural commodities or by a "carry-over" of mycotoxins and their metabolites into animal tissues, milk, and eggs after feeding of contaminated hay or corn. As a consequence of their diverse chemical structures and varying physical properties, mycotoxins exhibit a wide range of biological effects. Individual mycotoxins can be genotoxic, mutagenic, carcinogenic, teratogenic, and oestrogenic. To protect consumer health and to reduce economic losses, surveillance and control of mycotoxins in food and feed has become a major objective for producers, regulatory authorities and researchers worldwide. However, the variety of chemical structures makes it impossible to use one single technique for mycotoxin analysis. Hence, a vast number of analytical methods has been developed and validated. The heterogeneity of food matrices combined with the demand for a fast, simultaneous and accurate determination of multiple mycotoxins creates enormous challenges for routine analysis. The most crucial issues will be discussed in this review. These are (1) the collection of representative samples, (2) the performance of classical and emerging analytical methods based on chromatographic or immunochemical techniques, (3) the validation of official methods for enforcement, and (4) the limitations and future prospects of the current methods.

  1. Ochratoxin A in Moroccan Foods: Occurrence and Legislation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdellah Zinedine

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Ochratoxin A (OTA is secondary metabolite naturally produced in food and feed by toxigenic fungi, especially some Aspergillus species and Penicillium verucosum. OTA is one of the most studied mycotoxins and is of great interest due to its toxic effects on human and animals. OTA is produced in different food and feed matrices and contaminates a large range of base foods including cereals and derivatives, spices, dried fruits, wine and coffee, etc. Morocco, a North African country, has a climate characterized by high humidity and temperature, which probably favors the growth of molds. This contribution gives an overview of principal investigations about the presence of OTA in foods available in Morocco. Due to its toxicity, OTA presence is increasingly regulated worldwide, especially in countries of the European Union. However, up until now, no regulation limits were in force in Morocco, probably due to the ignorance of the health and economic problems resulting from OTA contamination. Finally, recommendations and future research directions are given required to assess the situation completely.

  2. Political Limits to the Processing of Policy Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter J. May

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution addresses political limits to the processing of policy problems in the United States. Our foci are the forces that limit policymakers' attention to different aspects of problems and how this affects the prospects for problem resolution. We theorize about three sets of forces: interest engagement, linkages among relevant institutions for policymaking, and partisan conflict. We show how the interplay of these forces limits efforts to address complex problems. Based on secondary accounts, we consider these underlying dynamics for ten complex problems. These include the thorny problems of the financial crisis, climate change, and health care; the persistent problems of K-12 education, drug abuse, and food safety; and the looming problems associated with critical infrastructure, the obesity epidemic, ocean health, and terrorism and extreme events. From these accounts we identify different patterns that we label fractured, allied, bureaucratic, and anemic policymaking.

  3. Mapping of interconnection of climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, Tokuta; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Nishina, Kazuya; Takanashi, Kiyoshi; Emori, Seita; Kiguchi, Masashi; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Honda, Yasushi; Okada, Masashi; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Yamamoto, Akitomo; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Iwase, Kenta; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Oki, Taikan

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  4. Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Janssens, Lizanne; Stoks, Robby

    2016-01-01

    Extreme temperatures and exposure to agricultural pesticides are becoming more frequent and intense under global change. Their combination may be especially problematic when animals suffer food limitation. We exposed Coenagrion puella damselfly larvae to a simulated heat wave combined with food...... limitation and subsequently to a widespread agricultural pesticide (chlorpyrifos) in an indoor laboratory experiment designed to obtain mechanistic insights in the direct effects of these stressors in isolation and when combined. The heat wave reduced immune function (activity of phenoloxidase, PO...... variables. While the immediate effects of the heat wave were subtle, our results indicate the importance of delayed effects in shaping the total fitness impact of a heat wave when followed by pesticide exposure. Firstly, the combination of delayed negative effects of the heat wave and starvation...

  5. Climate change: Causes, effects and mitigation measures- A review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences ... far more than at any time in the last 650,000 years resulting in climate change or global warming. Both natural and human causes of climate change including the earth's orbital changes, ... food production, loss of biodiversity, food insecurity, decreased animal health et cetera.

  6. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  7. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Codesigning a resilient food system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sari J. Himanen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Global changes, especially the progression of climate change, create a plethora of adaptation needs for social-ecological systems. With increasing uncertainty, more resilient food systems that are able to adapt and shape their operations in response to emerging challenges are required. Most of the research on this subject has been focused on developing countries; however, developed countries also face increasing environmental, economic, and social pressures. Because food systems are complex and involve multiple actors, using codesign might be the most productive way to develop desirable system characteristics. For this study, we engaged food system actors in a scenario-planning exercise to identify means of building more resilient food systems. In particular, the actors focused on determinants of adaptive capacity in developed countries, with Finland as a case study. The brainstorming session followed by a two-round Delphi study raised three main characteristics for effective food system resilience, namely, energy and nutrient sovereignty, transparency and dialogue in the food chain, and continuous innovativeness and evidence-based learning. In addition, policy interventions were found instrumental for supporting such food system resilience. The main actor-specific determinants of adaptive capacity identified included the farmers' utilization of agri-technology and expertise; energy and logistic efficiency of the input and processing industry; and for retail, communication to build consumer trust and environmental awareness, and effective use of information and communication technology. Of the food system actors, farmers and the processing industry were perceived to be the closest to reaching the limits of their adaptive capacities. The use of adaptive capacity as a proxy seemed to concretize food system resilience effectively. Our study suggests that the resilience approach generates new perspectives that can guide actors in developing food

  9. The environmental sustainability of insects as food and feed. A review

    OpenAIRE

    Huis, van, Arnold; Oonincx, Dennis G.A.B.

    2017-01-01

    With a growing world population, increasingly demanding consumers, and a limited amount of agricultural land, there is an urgent need to find alternatives to conventional meat products. Livestock production is, moreover, a leading cause of anthropogenic-induced climate change. To mediate this, more sustainable diets are needed, with reduced meat consumption or the use of alternative protein sources. Insects are promoted as human food and animal feed worldwide. In tropical countries, edible in...

  10. Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

  11. Climate smartness in agro-food standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingram, V.J.; Bezlepkina, I.; Verburg, R.W.

    2013-01-01

    This report contributes to the BO-10-020-003 project 'Aligning good agricultural practices and climate smart agriculture' commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and led by Plant Research International. The aim of this memorandum is to provide insight into the question who determines

  12. Dynamic Predictions of Crop Yield and Irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa Due to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Wittig, T.

    2012-12-01

    The highest damages from climate change are predicted to be in the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculture is predicted to be especially vulnerable in this region because of its current state of high temperature and low precipitation and because it is usually rain-fed or relies on relatively basic technologies which therefore limit its ability to sustain in increased poor climatic conditions [1]. The goal of this research is to quantify the vulnerability of this ecosystem by projecting future changes in agriculture due to IPCC predicted climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature. This research will provide a better understanding of the relationship between precipitation and rain-fed agriculture in savannas. In order to quantify the effects of climate change on agriculture, the impacts of climate change are modeled through the use of a land surface vegetation dynamics model previously developed combined with a crop model [2,4]. In this project, it will be used to model yield for point cropland locations within sub-Saharan Africa between Kenya and Botswana with a range of annual rainfall. With this model, future projections are developed for what can be anticipated for the crop yield based on two precipitation climate change scenarios; (1) decreased depth and (2) decreased frequency as well as temperature change scenarios; (3) only temperature increased, (4) temperature increase dand decreased precipitation depth, and (5) temperature increased and decreased precipitation frequency. Therefore, this will allow conclusions to be drawn about how mean precipitation and a changing climate effect food security in sub-Saharan Africa. As an additional analysis, irrigation is added to the model as it is thought to be the solution to protect food security by maximizing on the potential of food production. In water-limited areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, it is important to consider water efficient irrigation techniques such as demand-based micro

  13. Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Madukwe

    humanity with food and fiber, while climate is the primary determinant of agricultural ... Extension systems can help farmers deal with climate change by providing them information on causes and effects of climate change as well as adaptive ...

  14. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security and Poverty Reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic interactions between bio-geophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of foods, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability, utilization and access, so that food security is diminished when ...

  15. Review: Assessing the climate mitigation potential of biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Moriarty

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available For many millennia, humans have used biomass for three broad purposes: food for humans and fodder for farm animals; energy; and materials. Food has always been exclusively produced from biomass, and in the year 1800, biomass still accounted for about 95% of all energy. Biomass has also been a major source of materials for construction, implements, clothing, bedding and other uses, but some researchers think that total human uses of biomass will soon reach limits of sustainability. It is thus important to select those biomass uses that will maximise global climate change benefits. With a ‘food first’ policy, it is increasingly recognised that projections of food needs are important for estimating future global bioenergy potential, and that non-food uses of biomass can be increased by both food crop yield improvements and dietary changes. However, few researchers have explicitly included future biomaterials production as a factor in bioenergy potential. Although biomaterials’ share of the materials market has roughly halved over the past quarter-century, we show that per tonne of biomass, biomaterials will usually allow greater greenhouse gas reductions than directly using biomass for bioenergy. particularly since in many cases, biomaterials can be later burnt for energy after their useful life.

  16. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

    2018-06-01

    Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

  17. Sustainable food production in marginal lands—Case of GDLA member countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabbir A. Shahid

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable food production in the changing climate and dwindling water resources in the Global Dry Land Alliance (GDLA member countries is a real challenge, especially when considering marginal lands in dryland systems. The definition of marginal land is very vague and defined from different perspectives (pragmatism about marginal lands. Dryland itself indicates "marginality" due to water stress. In general, the abandoned agriculture land where food production is not economical, and has low inherent productivity potential is considered marginal; however, a land may be marginal for agriculture but vital for grazing. In this paper attempts have been made to give review of literature (water stress, extent of marginal saline lands, marginality. Policy matters (development of soil, water and agriculture strategies that GDLA and member countries should consider for future sustainable food production in their countries, including but not limited to, assessment of land resources for agriculture potential, defining, mapping and characterizing marginal lands, and use of innovative technologies (conservation agriculture, climate smart agriculture, integrated soil reclamation program and capacity building for food production, are discussed. The international perception (FAO, UNEP, CGIAR on marginal lands is also described. An innovative approach of using national biocapacity and ecological footprint is used to assess marginality of GDLA member countries. Ecological overshoot (using 1.5 earth planets and biocapacity debtor and creditor countries are highlighted. Challenges and best management practices for food production in marginal lands are included. Other important issues, like leasing land abroad, GDLA strategic food reserves and best management practices, innovative ideas for food production are shared. Finally recommendations are drafted for actions by GDLA, its member countries and the partners.

  18. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate-change-induced reduction of their sea-ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea-ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutritional needs of polar bears as well as the physiological and environmental constraints that shape their use of terrestrial ecosystems. Only small numbers of polar bears have been documented consuming terrestrial foods even in modest quantities. Over much of the polar bear's range, limited terrestrial food availability supports only low densities of much smaller, resident brown bears (Ursus arctos), which use low-quality resources more efficiently and may compete with polar bears in these areas. Where consumption of terrestrial foods has been documented, polar bear body condition and survival rates have declined even as land use has increased. Thus far, observed consumption of terrestrial food by polar bears has been insufficient to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities but can have ecological consequences for other species. Warming-induced loss of sea ice remains the primary threat faced by polar bears.

  19. Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, Eric C.

    2013-04-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical

  20. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  1. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  2. Impact of water scarcity on food security at micro level in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Fahim, Muhammad Amir

    2011-01-01

    Pakistan is confronting the problem of water scarcity which is rendering an adverse impact on food security. The study examines the impact of water scarcity on food security in an era of climate change. It further focuses on projecting the future trends of water and food stock. The research effort probes the links among water scarcity, climate change, food security, water security, food inflation, poverty and management of water resources. Data on food security was collected from the FSA (Foo...

  3. Impact of water scarcity on food security at macro level in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Fahim, Muhammad Amir

    2011-01-01

    Pakistan is confronting the problem of water scarcity which is rendering an adverse impact on food security. The study examines the impact of water scarcity on food security in an era of climate change. It further focuses on projecting the future trends of water and food stock. The research effort probes the links among water scarcity, climate change, food security, water security, food inflation, poverty and management of water resources. Data on food security was collected from the FSA (Foo...

  4. Impact of water scarcity on food security at meso level in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Fahim, Muhammad Amir

    2011-01-01

    Pakistan is confronting the problem of water scarcity which is rendering an adverse impact on food security. The study examines the impact of water scarcity on food security in an era of climate change. It further focuses on projecting the future trends of water and food stock. The research effort probes the links among water scarcity, climate change, food security, water security, food inflation, poverty and management of water resources. Data on food security was collected from the FSA (Foo...

  5. Strategiesfor AgriculturalAdaptationto Climate Changein Kogi State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agribotix GCS 068

    Strategies for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Kogi State, ... increased food production to manage climate variability and increasing ... sensitivity of a system is subject to both ecological and socio-economic conditions and influences the scale to which a system will be affected adversely or otherwise by climate ...

  6. Farm Organization, Ownership and Food Productivity in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkasiobi Silas Oguzor

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available African food production is in crisis. Today, despite Africa’s vast physical and climatic potentials to produce food, most African States depend on food importation. Africa’s capacity to deal with its food battles is severely constrained by its political instability, its early stage of scientific and institutional development, and a rapidly changing and complex global environment. In Nigeria and in most developing economies, there is a fundamental lack of political commitment to come grips with poverty, malnutrition and access to food. Because of these barriers, traditional economics is a rather limited tool to understand food production and other related variables. Poverty, hunger, malnutrition, famine and starvation in developing economies are just as much a function of political, macroeconomic, and institutional barriers as lack of technology. Illustrations from the agrarian chaos in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Chad and others are too numerous to conclude otherwise. The aim of this paper is to determine and analyze economics incentives and strategies, which could stimulate commercial agriculture in Nigeria. The analysis is based on the premise that the form of production organization in Nigerian agriculture is the major constraint to commercialization. The paper concludes that output price subsidy is the over-riding factor in the commercialization of agriculture in Nigeria.

  7. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

  8. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  9. Food and Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA sets limits on how much of a pesticide may be used on food during growing and processing, and how much can remain on the food you buy. Learn about regulation of pesticides on food and how you can limit exposure.

  10. The estimation of annual limit on intake for tritiated food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komatsu, Kenshi; Okumura, Yutaka

    1992-01-01

    Tritium incorporation into tissues and DNA of mice was studied after daily ingestion of tritiated food or tritiated water. The tritiated food used was a commercial preparation mixed with brine shrimp which had been reared in tritiated sea water. After ingestion of tritiated food or water for up to 22 d, the specific activity of tritium in tissues was measured as tissue-free-water tritium, tissue-bound tritium and DNA-bound tritium. In order to compare the tritium intake from food with that from water, 14 C-glucose was added to food and drinking water. The specific activity of tritium of tissues obtained was then corrected by the specific activity of 14 C in tissues in order to analyse the tritium incorporation from the same amount of ingested food and water. DNA-bound tritium after the ingestion of tritiated food was 4.6 times higher than that of tritiated water, while tissue-bound tritium was 2.2 times higher. The radiation dose to liver from tritium incorporated through food was two-fold higher than through tritiated water, which was mainly due to the high incorporation of tritium into DNA. Our results demonstrated that the dose calculation based on tissue-free-water tritium alone would underestimate the radiation exposure of the human population exposed to tritiated food. (author)

  11. Canada-South Africa trilateral Research Chair in climate change ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Canada-South Africa trilateral Research Chair in climate change and ... Decreasing food availability for wildlife is likely to exacerbate the impacts of climate change ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management.

  12. Impacts of multiple global environmental changes on African crop yield and water use efficiency: Implications to food and water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, S.; Yang, J.; Zhang, J.; Xu, R.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, H.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change and climate variability. Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and other environmental factors on water resource and food security through the climate-water-food nexus. Understanding the responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to environmental changes is particularly important because Africa is well known for widespread poverty, slow economic growth and agricultural systems particularly sensitive to frequent and persistent droughts. However, the lack of integrated understanding has limited our ability to quantify and predict the potential of Africa's agricultural sustainability and freshwater supply, and to better manage the system for meeting an increasing food demand in a way that is socially and environmentally or ecologically sustainable. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across entire Africa in the past 35 years (1980-2015) and the rest of the 21st century (2016-2099). Our preliminary results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion (about 50%), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions. Our results indicate that N fertilizer could be a major driver to improve food security in Africa. Future climate warming could reduce crop yield and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land

  13. Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Dubovsky, James A.; Drewien, Roderick C.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment.Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression.Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect.Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond

  14. Food Safety Program in Asian Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Ryuji; Hwang, Lucy Sun

    2015-01-01

    By using the ILSI network in Asia, we are holding a session focused on food safety programs in several Asian areas. In view of the external environment, it is expected to impact the global food system in the near future, including the rapid increase in food demand and in public health services due to population growth, as well as the threats to biosecurity and food safety due to the rapid globalization of the food trade. Facilitating effective information sharing holds promise for the activation of the food industry. At this session, Prof. Hwang shares the current situation of Food Safety and Sanitation Regulations in Taiwan. Dr. Liu provides a talk on the role of risk assessment in food regulatory control focused on aluminum-containing food additives in China. After the JECFA evaluation of aluminum-containing food additives in 2011, each country has carried out risk assessment based on dietary intake surveys. Ms. Chan reports on the activities of a working group on Food Standards Harmonization in ASEAN. She also explains that the ILSI Southeast Asia Region has actively supported the various ASEAN Working Groups in utilizing science to harmonize food standards. Prof. Park provides current research activities in Korea focused on the effect of climate change on food safety. Climate change is generally seen as having a negative impact on food security, particularly in developing countries. We use these four presentations as a springboard to vigorous discussion on issues related to Food Safety in Asia.

  15. Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher C Wilmers

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  16. Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmers, Christopher C; Getz, Wayne M

    2005-04-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  17. Gray Wolves as Climate Change Buffers in Yellowstone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilmers Christopher C

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

  18. Analysis of farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in cocoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changing climate and weather patterns are predicted to have severe negative impacts on food production, food security and natural resources in the immediate and coming years. Climate change alters the development of cocoa pods, insect pests and pathogens which translate into lower crop yields and impact farm ...

  19. Climate Change and Health: Nurses as Drivers of Climate Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara Cook

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes to Earth’s climate are occurring globally at unprecedented rates with significant impacts to human and population health, including increased likelihood of mental health illnesses, food and water insecurity, insect-borne and heat-related illnesses, and respiratory diseases. Those in the health sector are seeing the challenges patients and community members are experiencing as a result of current and projected climate threats. Health professionals, including nurses, have an opportunity to lead the charge to significantly improve society’s response to climate change and foster the strategies needed to promote health. This article highlights the current work of the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, a national nursing organization focused solely on environmental health concerns, in inspiring and empowering nurses across the country to engage in action to reduce their climate impact, move climate solutions forward, and improve the ability of health care institutions and communities to respond to the health impacts of climate change.

  20. Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

    2017-04-01

    To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate Agreements under Limited Participation, Asymmetric Information and market Imperfections - a summary of a Dr.polit. thesis -

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagem, C

    1996-08-01

    This report summarizes the papers included as part of a doctoral thesis. It starts with the history of the greenhouse effect and proceeds with the international efforts to control man-made air pollution. In 1990 the UN established the Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee for Climate Change (INC), the task of which was to prepare the negotiations for the UN`s Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which came into force in 1994. The commitments of the signatories are not legally binding, quantitatively. The FCCC established a Conference of the Parties (COP) as the supreme body of the convention. Its first session was held in Berlin in 1995. The Berlin Mandate established a process that would enable the Parties to take actions for the period after 2000. A possible international climate agreement is often evaluated in terms of its efficiency or cost-effectiveness. Calculations are extremely complex and involve great uncertainties. Countries may not agree on the methods of calculation. There are several studies on cost-benefit analyses for controlling global warming, based on various simplifications. The thesis focuses on the cost-effectiveness of possible climate agreements and covers only CO{sub 2}. The implications of limited participation in a climate agreement are discussed. The design of a climate treaty should take into account how different policy instruments can be used to influence the emissions from non-participants. The final section discusses the impact on cost-effectiveness of a trade able quota system if some counties have market power. 59 refs.

  2. From climate-smart agriculture to climate-smart landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scherr Sara J

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For agricultural systems to achieve climate-smart objectives, including improved food security and rural livelihoods as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation, they often need to be take a landscape approach; they must become ‘climate-smart landscapes’. Climate-smart landscapes operate on the principles of integrated landscape management, while explicitly incorporating adaptation and mitigation into their management objectives. Results An assessment of climate change dynamics related to agriculture suggests that three key features characterize a climate-smart landscape: climate-smart practices at the field and farm scale; diversity of land use across the landscape to provide resilience; and management of land use interactions at landscape scale to achieve social, economic and ecological impacts. To implement climate-smart agricultural landscapes with these features (that is, to successfully promote and sustain them over time, in the context of dynamic economic, social, ecological and climate conditions requires several institutional mechanisms: multi-stakeholder planning, supportive landscape governance and resource tenure, spatially-targeted investment in the landscape that supports climate-smart objectives, and tracking change to determine if social and climate goals are being met at different scales. Examples of climate-smart landscape initiatives in Madagascar’s Highlands, the African Sahel and Australian Wet Tropics illustrate the application of these elements in contrasting contexts. Conclusions To achieve climate-smart landscape initiatives widely and at scale will require strengthened technical capacities, institutions and political support for multi-stakeholder planning, governance, spatial targeting of investments and multi-objective impact monitoring.

  3. How the climate limits the wood density of angiosperms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jin Woo; Kim, Ho-Young

    2017-11-01

    Flowering trees have various types of wood structure to perform multiple functions under their environmental conditions. In addition to transporting water from the roots to the canopy and providing mechanical support, the structure should provide resistance to embolism to maintain soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. By investigating existing data of the resistivity to embolism and wood density of 165 angiosperm species, here we show that the climate can limit the intrinsic properties of trees. Trees living in the dry environments require a high wood density to slow down the pressure decrease as it loses water relatively fast by evaporation. However, building too much tissues will result in the decrease of hydraulic conductivity and moisture concentration around mesophyll cells. To rationalize the biologically observed lower bound of the wood density, we construct a mechanical model to predict the wood density as a function of the vulnerability to embolism and the time for the recovery. Also, we build an artificial system using hydrogel microchannels that can test the probability of embolism as a function of conduit distributions. Our theoretical prediction is shown to be consistent with the results obtained from the artificial system and the biological data.

  4. Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate variability and change have been implicated to have significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance in tropical sub-humid climatic zone. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain uncertain. In this study, records of crop yields and ...

  5. Exploring the energy-water-food-climate nexus for the Indian Economy in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taheripour, F.; Hertel, T. W.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    The economy of India is expected to face serious environmental challenges over the coming decades. Population growth, coupled with economic growth of nearly 7%/year to 2030 will translate into strong growth in energy demands - particularly electricity. The electricity sector's claim on total available water could grow from 4% to more than 10% in India in 2030, if the use of wet cooling technologies persists (IGES 2013). Water-saving, dry cooling technologies are available for coal-fired power plants, but this requires significant investment and must be done at the time of construction. Growing water demands from electricity generation, when coupled with industrial, residential and commercial demands, are projected to result in water shortages for irrigation in some key river basins such as Indus, Ganges, Subernarekha, Krishna, and Chotanagpui (Rosegrant et al., 2013). The resulting pressure on agricultural production is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, which itself may increase demands for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to higher temperatures and more variable rainfall (AgMIP, 2013). In this paper we examine the impact of water scarcity on economic growth, food, and energy security in India using an enhanced version of the GTAP-AEZ-WATER model. We find that investments in water-saving technology in the electricity sector are less costly than developing new water supply. However, even when these technologies are implemented, we project shortfalls in water available for irrigated agriculture. These shortfalls result in the contraction of irrigated area and diminished food production relative to the unconstrained baseline. However, trade could help India to mitigate a portion of this pressure by importing more food products from water abundant regions. In addition, allowing for the trading of water within river basins helps to alleviate some of the consequences of water scarcity.

  6. Ethical Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heerwagen, Lennart Ravn

    So-called ‘ethical’ food products have spread across the industrialised world. These are products that are produced under labelling schemes with extraordinary attentiveness to issues such as farm animal welfare and environmental protection. Political decision-makers and other stakeholders in food...... protection. In particular, it aims to examine the concrete improvements that may be pursued through markets for ethical food, and how these improvements are influenced by factors related to individual consumers’ choice of food. This thesis is structured around three research papers that illuminate different...... aspects of ethical food consumption and, based on this, provide concrete policy inputs. The scope of the research is highly interdisciplinary, and includes perspectives from ethics and the social sciences on food consumption. Paper I: Can increased organic consumption mitigate climate changes...

  7. Mapping and linking supply-and demand-side measures in climate-smart agriculture. A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scherer, L.A.; Verburg, P.H.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and food security are two of humanity’s greatest challenges and are highly interlinked. On the one hand, climate change puts pressure on food security. On the other hand, farming significantly contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This calls for climate-smart

  8. Land use alters the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vries, Franciska T.; Liiri, Mira E.; Bjørnlund, Lisa; Bowker, Matthew A.; Christensen, Søren; Setälä, Heikki; Bardgett, Richard D.

    2012-01-01

    Soils deliver several ecosystem services including carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling, which are of central importance to climate mitigation and sustainable food production. Soil biota play an important role in carbon and nitrogen cycling, and, although the effects of land use on soil food webs are well documented the consequences for their resistance and resilience to climate change are not known. We compared the resistance and resilience to drought--which is predicted to increase under climate change of soil food webs of two common land-use systems: intensively managed wheat with a bacterial-based soil food web and extensively managed grassland with a fungal-based soil food web. We found that the fungal-based food web, and the processes of C and N loss it governs, of grassland soil was more resistant, although not resilient, and better able to adapt to drought than the bacterial-based food web of wheat soil. Structural equation modelling revealed that fungal-based soil food webs and greater microbial evenness mitigated C and N loss. Our findings show that land use strongly affects the resistance and resilience of soil food webs to climate change, and that extensively managed grassland promotes more resistant, and adaptable, fungal-based soil food webs.

  9. Food availability after nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cropper, W.P. Jr.; Harwell, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    The analysis of acute-phase food shortage vulnerabilities for 15 countries clearly indicates that in many countries massive levels of malnutrition and starvation are a possible outcome of a major nuclear war. The principal direct cause of such food shortages would be the climatic disturbances and societal disruptions during the initial post-war year. Even without climatic disturbances, import-dependent countries could suffer food shortages. Many of the countries with the highest levels of agricultural production and storage would probably be targets of nuclear weapons. It seems unlikely that food exports would continue from severely damaged countries, thus propagating effects to non-combatant countries. A similar analysis of food storage vulnerability in 130 countries indicates that a majority of people live in countries with inadequate food stores for such major perturbations. This is true even if consumption rates of 1,000 kcal . person/sup -1/ . day/sup -1/ are assumed rather than 1,500 kcal . person/sup -1/ . day/sup -1/. This vulnerability is particularly severe in Africa, and South America. Even though most of the countries of these continents have no nuclear weapons and are not likely to be targeted, the human consequences of a major nuclear war could be nearly as severe as in the principal combatant countries. Few countries would have sufficient food stores for their entire population and massive mortality would result if only pre-harvest levels were available. These conclusions represent an aspect of nuclear war that has only been recently realized. The possibility of climatic disturbances following a large nuclear war has introduced a new element to the global consequences expected. Not only are the populations of the major combatant countries at risk in a nuclear exchange, but also most of the global human population

  10. Foreign Assistance: North Korean Constraints Limit Food Aid Monitoring

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nelson, Benjamin

    1999-01-01

    .... However, the North Korean government has not allowed the World Food Program to fully implement its procedures and, as a result, it cannot be sure that the food aid is being shipped, stored, or used as planned...

  11. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  12. Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.

  13. Limiting climate change verification of compliance with treaty commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions from forests and land use by remote sensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanchbery, J.; Salt, J.

    1993-01-01

    This report contains the results of a study of how to verify compliance with treaty commitments to limit anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The study concentrated on establishing methods of verifying compliance with the Framework Convention on Climate Change. In particular, it examined methods of monitoring commitments to limit anthropogenic emissions from forests, agriculture and waste (for example, landfill sites) rather than from fossil fuel burning, which has been the subject of other detailed studies. Verification of compliance with international agreements must be carried out at a national level, because nation states are the parties to such agreements and it is their compliance with their commitments that must be checked by any verification regime. Therefore, it is essential that any verification regime is able to measure the amount (preferably the mass) of greenhouse gas which is anthropogenically generated within each nation which is party to an agreement to limit emissions of them. Also, because gases disperse rapidly in the atmosphere, it is necessary to monitor emissions at their source. The first task in the study reported here was thus to identify emission sources. (orig.)

  14. Does science have the answer to most issues of food security?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Musolino

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Today, the attention to food security has grown with the awareness of resources’ scarcity, earth excessive exploitation, population growth and climate change, all factors that are associated with an impelling food emergency. A plethora of theoretical perspectives adopted in analysing food security issue reflects in diverse normative approaches. Some focus on the rapport between population demand and food supply, seeking to reduce the former or increase the latter in order to achieve food security. Applying the technological progress of scientific research will have its positive outcomes: production will increase, keeping prices low; the limited resources will be used more efficiently, decreasing the consumption of water, energy and land; the environment will benefit from a more sustainable production. However, scientific solutions, such as population control, that do not restore individuals’ entitlement to food will be ineffective in preventing food insecurity. Therefore, food security it is not achievable by the sole means of science. A greater quantity of food does not guarantee a more equal distribution of resources. Increasing food production without altering its uneven distribution will only augment this inequality, making who has access to food more secure but not helping who is currently affected by the food insecurity issues. Science can play its role, but development towards the solutions to food insecurity must be led by politics.

  15. Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

    2017-08-01

    Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the southwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

    2012-09-01

    Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the American Southwest provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs), largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought, were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions such as the Southwest, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will both increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.

  17. Climate science and famine early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-11-29

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

  18. Climate change policy is an energy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.; Lightfoot, H.D.

    1999-01-01

    In an important respect the climate change (global warming) problem is an energy problem. Any policy aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will require large amounts of carbon free energy as substitutes for fossil fuels. No conceivable rates of improvement in energy efficiency and/or changes in lifestyles will obviate the need for vast amounts of carbon free energy if GHG emissions are to be reduced and the atmospheric concentration of carbon eventually stabilized. Where will such large amounts of carbon free energy come from? The renewable energies (solar, wind, biomass) are dilute and enormously land-using. Their potential contribution is seemingly limited in a world in which competing demands for land for food production, living space, leisure activities, ecological preserve, and natural resource production are increasing. Nuclear energy is controversial (fission) or problematic (fusion). Fuel cells require hydrogen which must be produced using some other form of energy. Tapping the earth's mantle with its vast amount of geothermal energy may be a future possibility. The present limitations of existing alternatives to fossil fuels suggest climate change policy should focus to a greater extent on what 'can' be done, rather than the present emphasis on what 'should' be done. Once refocused, the aim of climate policy should be to spur a decades long search for and development of new carbon free energy sources and technologies capable of displacing fossil fuels and of eventually meeting the world's baseload energy requirements. (author)

  19. Food consumption in ground beetles is limited under hypoxic conditions in response to ad libitum feeding, but not restricted feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudowska, Agnieszka; Bauchinger, Ulf

    2018-02-09

    Habitats on land with low oxygen availability provide unique niches inhabited by numerous species. The occupation of such hypoxic niches by animals is hypothesized to come at a cost linked to the limitations of aerobic metabolism and thus energy budget but may also provide benefits through physical protection from predators and parasitoids or reduced competition for food. We investigated the effects of hypoxic conditions on standard metabolic rate (SMR) and specific dynamic action (SDA) in male Carabus nemoralis. SMR and SDA were determined under three manipulated oxygen availabilities: 7, 14 and 21% O 2 and two feeding regimes: limited or ad libitum food consumption. In both hypoxic conditions, C. nemoralis was able to maintain SMR at levels similar to those in normoxia. When the meal size was limited, SDA duration did not differ among the oxygen availability conditions, but SDA was smaller under hypoxic conditions than at normoxic levels. The relative cost of digestion was significantly higher in normoxia than in hypoxia, but it did not affect net energy intake. In contrast, when offered a large meal to simulate ad libitum food conditions, beetles reduced their food consumption and net energy gain by 30% under hypoxia. Oxygen availability may influence the consumed prey size: the hypoxic condition did not limit net energy gain when the beetles fed on a small meal but did when they fed on a large meal. The results indicate that meal size is an important variable in determining differences in physiological costs and whole animal energy budgets at different concentrations of environmental oxygen levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Relationships between food neophobia and food intake and preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, S. R.; Rasmussen, Morten Arendt; Prescott, J.

    2017-01-01

    and preference data, in each case the food items were condensed into patterns described in terms of the foods/beverages with highest factor loadings. We then determined the impact of season and participant age, gender, education and income on these factors, as well as the interaction of these variables with FN......Food neophobia (FN) has been shown to be a strong influence on food preferences using primarily small data sets. This has limited the explanatory power of FN and the extent to which it can be related to other factors that influence food choice. To address these limitations, we collected Food...... Neophobia Scale data from 1167 adults from New Zealand over a 45-month period. Participants also completed a 112-item food preference questionnaire and a self-report 24 h, a 145 item food intake recall survey, and the Food Choice Questionnaire (FCQ). As a way of providing a structure to the food intake...

  1. Food Safety as a contributor to Food Security: global policy concerns & challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Kumar Chattu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The theme for World Health Day campaign for this year 2015 is “Food safety: from farm to plate, make food safe”. The day focuses on demonstrating the importance of food safety along the whole length of the food chain in a globalized world, from production and transport, to preparation and consumption (1. Everyone needs food and needs it every day either plant sources or animal sources or both. The food we eat must be nutritious and safe but we often ignore or overlook the issue of food safety. Many cases of food borne diseases either acute poisoning or chronic exposure are largely under reported. In this globalized world, though the food chain extends over thousands of miles from different continents, an error or contamination in one country can affect the health of consumers on the other part of the world. To ensure full impact, these actions must build on principles of government stewardship, engagement of civil society, (2.According to UN, access to a safe and secure food supply is a basic human right. Food safety and food security are interrelated concepts which have an impact on the health outcomes and quality of human lives. As per Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO, Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life, (3. Based on the definition of Food security, four food security dimensions can be identified: food availability, economic and physical access to food, food utilization and stability over time. Apart from that food security is also affected by Poverty and Climate change.Food safety is an umbrella term that encompasses many aspects like food items handling, preparation and storage of food to prevent illness and injury. The other important issues are chemical, microphysical and microbiological aspects of food safety, (4. Control of

  2. Reducing risks to food security from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Aggarwal, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    , with very little attention paid to more systems components of cropping, let alone other dimensions of food security. Given the serious threats to food security, attention should shift to an action-oriented research agenda, where we see four key challenges: (a) changing the culture of research; (b) deriving...

  3. Socio-economic vulnerability, adaptation to agro-climatic risk and the potential of user-tailored climate services for the Andean Highlands: The case of quinoa production in the region of Puno

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flubacher, Moritz; Sedlmeier, Katrin; Lechthaler, Filippo; Rohrer, Mario; Cristobal, Lizet; Vinogradova, Alexandra

    2017-04-01

    In the semi-arid Altiplano in Peru, smallholder farmers are extremely exposed to climatic hazards like drought, frost and hail. These unfavorable weather and climate events can lead to significant crop losses and thereby provoke periods of food insecurity for subsistence farmers. The use of specific climate information can serve as an adaptation strategy to reduce the impact of these natural hazards. In this context, the Climandes project (a project of the Global Framework for Climate Services led by WMO) aims at developing user-tailored seasonal forecast products for the agricultural sector in the Peruvian Andes such as indices on increased frost risk, the occurrence of long dry periods, or the start of the rainy season. In order to develop such user-tailored climate information and link it efficiently to the existing implementation context, it is important to understand the complex interrelation between climate variability and change, socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation limits. Moreover, as it has been widely shown, the process of making climate information useful for end-users, in particular for smallholder farmers in developing countries, remains a considerable challenge due to existing cognitive, cultural and institutional constraints. In this sense, it is necessary to identify these constraints and formulate strategies to overcome them. While there exist different studies about climate change and anomalies in Puno, there is no consolidated evidence on the corresponding socio-economic vulnerabilities in the specific agricultural context of Puno. In order to fill this gap, we conducted a field survey collecting primary data in the Andean highlands based on a representative sample of 726 smallholder farmers in the region of Puno (Peru). The assessment primarily focused on exploring smallholders' agro-climatic risk exposure, socio-economic profiles, existing coping strategies as well as prevailing barriers to utilization of science-based climate

  4. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

  5. Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

  6. On the Vulnerability of Water Limited Ecosystems to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly K. Caylor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Society is facing growing environmental problems that require new research efforts to understand the way ecosystems operate and survive, and their mutual relationships with the hydrologic cycle. In this respect, ecohydrology suggests a renewed interdisciplinary approach that aims to provide a better comprehension of the effects of climatic changes on terrestrial ecosystems. With this aim, a coupled hydrological/ecological model is adopted to describe simultaneously vegetation pattern evolution and hydrological water budget at the basin scale using as test site the Upper Rio Salado basin (Sevilleta, NM, USA. The hydrological analyses have been carried out using a recently formulated framework for the water balance at the daily level linked with a spatial model for the description of the spatial organization of vegetation. This enables quantitatively assessing the effects on soil water availability on future climatic scenarios. Results highlighted that the relationship between climatic forcing (water availability and vegetation patterns is strongly non-linear. This implies, under some specific conditions which depend on the ecosystem characteristics, small changes in climatic conditions may produce significant transformation of the vegetation patterns.

  7. The Role of Traditional Knowledge and Crop Varieties in Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in SW China, Bolivian Andes and coastal Kenya

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiderska, Krystyna; Reid, Hannah; Song, Yiching; Li, Jingsong; Mutta, Doris; Ongugo, Paul; Pakia, Mohamed; Oros, Rolando; Barriga, Sandra

    2011-09-15

    Paper prepared for the UNU-IAS workshop on Indigenous Peoples, Marginalised Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge, Mexico, July 2011. Indigenous peoples and local communities often live in harsh natural environments, and have had to cope with extreme weather and adapt to environmental change for centuries in order to survive. They have done this using long standing traditions and practices – or traditional knowledge (TK) – relating to adaptive ecosystem management and sustainable use of natural resources. The three case studies presented provide evidence of the crucial role of traditional crop varieties, knowledge and practices in enabling adaption to changes in climate. The question is whether the climatic changes observed in these cases are human induced climate change or just natural changes. The findings show that indigenous farmers in SW China, coastal Kenya and the Bolivian Andes are already severely impacted by changes in climate, including drought, with serious consequences for crop production and food security. The scale of the changes, and the fact that they have occurred quite recently (in the last 10 or 20 years), suggests that they may be the result of human induced climate change.

  8. A review of the current state of research on the water, energy, and food nexus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiko Endo

    2017-06-01

    New hydrological insights: Through selected 37 projects, four types of nexus research were identified including water–food, water–energy–food, water–energy, and climate related. Among them, six projects (16% had a close linkage with water–food, 11 (30% with water–energy–food, 12 (32% with water–energy, and eight (22% with climate. The regions were divided into Asia, Europe, Oceania, North America, South America, Middle East and Africa. North America and Oceania had a tendency to focus on a specific nexus type, water–energy (46% and climate (43%, while Africa had less focus on water–energy (7%. Regarding keywords, out of 37 nexus projects, 16 projects listed keywords in their articles. There were 84 keywords in total, which were categorized by the author team depending on its relevance to water, food, energy, climate, and combination of water–food–energy–climate, and 40 out of 84 keywords were linked with water and only 4 were linked with climate. As for stakeholders, 77 out of 137 organizations were related to research and only two organizations had a role in media.

  9. A dissenting view on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linden, H.R.

    1993-01-01

    Global warming alarmists are vastly overstating the risks of climate change, often to further other agendas. The science of global warming simply does not support their claims of impending doom - as policy makers would be wise to note. There is scientific consensus on the existence of a benign natural greenhouse effect that keeps the Earth habitable by raising its average surface temperature by about 33 degrees C. Global warming alarmists, however, have falsely claimed that this consensus also extends to the belief that human activity is significantly enhancing this effect. This is simply untrue. Based on a wealth of new information, there is now strong and rapidly growing scientific dissent on the inevitability of catastrophic and even mildly detrimental anthropogenic climate change. This casts serious doubts on the need for binding international agreements to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, or to limit conversion of tropical forests to agricultural uses in areas where increased food supply is a critical issue

  10. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  11. Aquaculture: a promising solution for food insecurity, poverty and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    With increasing food production challenges such as dwindling capture fisheries and impacts of climate change becoming more eminent, solutions to food insecurity and malnutrition in Kenya must bring about quick results in food availability by stimulating more own-food production. Aquaculture has so far been recognized ...

  12. Knowing climate change, embodying climate praxis: experiential knowledge in southern Appalachia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer L. Rice; Brian J. Burke; Nik Heynen

    2015-01-01

    Whether used to support or impede action, scientific knowledge is now, more than ever, the primary framework for political discourse on climate change. As a consequence, science has become a hegemonic way of knowing climate change by mainstream climate politics, which not only limits the actors and actions deemed legitimate in climate politics but also silences...

  13. Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

  14. Limitations of climatic data for inferring species boundaries: insights from speckled rattlesnakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesse M Meik

    Full Text Available Phenotypes, DNA, and measures of ecological differences are widely used in species delimitation. Although rarely defined in such studies, ecological divergence is almost always approximated using multivariate climatic data associated with sets of specimens (i.e., the "climatic niche"; the justification for this approach is that species-specific climatic envelopes act as surrogates for physiological tolerances. Using identical statistical procedures, we evaluated the usefulness and validity of the climate-as-proxy assumption by comparing performance of genetic (nDNA SNPs and mitochondrial DNA, phenotypic, and climatic data for objective species delimitation in the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii complex. Ordination and clustering patterns were largely congruent among intrinsic (heritable traits (nDNA, mtDNA, phenotype, and discordance is explained by biological processes (e.g., ontogeny, hybridization. In contrast, climatic data did not produce biologically meaningful clusters that were congruent with any intrinsic dataset, but rather corresponded to regional differences in atmospheric circulation and climate, indicating an absence of inherent taxonomic signal in these data. Surrogating climate for physiological tolerances adds artificial weight to evidence of species boundaries, as these data are irrelevant for that purpose. Based on the evidence from congruent clustering of intrinsic datasets, we recommend that three subspecies of C. mitchellii be recognized as species: C. angelensis, C. mitchellii, and C. Pyrrhus.

  15. [Biofuels, food security and transgenic crops].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acosta, Orlando; Chaparro-Giraldo, Alejandro

    2009-01-01

    Soaring global food prices are threatening to push more poor people back below the poverty line; this will probably become aggravated by the serious challenge that increasing population and climate changes are posing for food security. There is growing evidence that human activities involving fossil fuel consumption and land use are contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and consequently changing the climate worldwide. The finite nature of fossil fuel reserves is causing concern about energy security and there is a growing interest in the use of renewable energy sources such as biofuels. There is growing concern regarding the fact that biofuels are currently produced from food crops, thereby leading to an undesirable competition for their use as food and feed. Nevertheless, biofuels can be produced from other feedstocks such as lingo-cellulose from perennial grasses, forestry and vegetable waste. Biofuel energy content should not be exceeded by that of the fossil fuel invested in its production to ensure that it is energetically sustainable; however, biofuels must also be economically competitive and environmentally acceptable. Climate change and biofuels are challenging FAO efforts aimed at eradicating hunger worldwide by the next decade. Given that current crops used in biofuel production have not been domesticated for this purpose, transgenic technology can offer an enormous contribution towards improving biofuel crops' environmental and economic performance. The present paper critically presents some relevant relationships between biofuels, food security and transgenic plant technology.

  16. Potentials, consequences and trade-offs of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal. Strategies for climate engineering and their limitations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boysen, Lena R.

    2017-01-17

    For hundreds of years, humans have engineered the planet to fulfil their need for increasing energy consumption and production. Since the industrial revolution, one consequence are rising global mean temperatures which could change by 2 C to 4.5 C until 2100 if mitigation enforcement of CO{sub 2} emissions fails.To counteract this projected global warming, climate engineering techniques aim at intendedly cooling Earth's climate for example through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) which is commonly perceived as environmentally friendly. Here, tCDR refers to the establishment of large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) in combination with the production of long-lasting carbon products such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or biochar. This thesis examines the potentials and possible consequences of tCDR by analysing land-use scenarios with different spatial and temporal scales of BPs using an advanced biosphere model forced by varying climate projections. These scenario simulations were evaluated with focus on their carbon sequestration potentials, trade-offs with food production and impacts on natural ecosystems and climate itself. Synthesised, the potential of tCDR to permanently extract CO{sub 2} out of the atmosphere is found to be small, regardless of the emission scenario, the point of onset or the spatial extent. On the contrary, the aforementioned trade-offs and impacts are shown to be unfavourable in most cases. In a high emission scenario with a late onset of BPs (i.e. around 2050), even unlimited area availability for tCDR could not reverse past emissions sufficiently, e.g. BPs covering 25% of all agricultural or natural land could delay 2100's carbon budget by no more than two or three decades (equivalent to ∼550 or 800 GtC tCDR), respectively. However, simultaneous emission reductions and an earlier establishment of BPs (i.e. around 2035) could result in strong carbon extractions reversing past emissions (e.g. six or eight

  17. Potentials, consequences and trade-offs of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal. Strategies for climate engineering and their limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boysen, Lena R.

    2017-01-01

    For hundreds of years, humans have engineered the planet to fulfil their need for increasing energy consumption and production. Since the industrial revolution, one consequence are rising global mean temperatures which could change by 2 C to 4.5 C until 2100 if mitigation enforcement of CO_2 emissions fails.To counteract this projected global warming, climate engineering techniques aim at intendedly cooling Earth's climate for example through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) which is commonly perceived as environmentally friendly. Here, tCDR refers to the establishment of large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) in combination with the production of long-lasting carbon products such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage or biochar. This thesis examines the potentials and possible consequences of tCDR by analysing land-use scenarios with different spatial and temporal scales of BPs using an advanced biosphere model forced by varying climate projections. These scenario simulations were evaluated with focus on their carbon sequestration potentials, trade-offs with food production and impacts on natural ecosystems and climate itself. Synthesised, the potential of tCDR to permanently extract CO_2 out of the atmosphere is found to be small, regardless of the emission scenario, the point of onset or the spatial extent. On the contrary, the aforementioned trade-offs and impacts are shown to be unfavourable in most cases. In a high emission scenario with a late onset of BPs (i.e. around 2050), even unlimited area availability for tCDR could not reverse past emissions sufficiently, e.g. BPs covering 25% of all agricultural or natural land could delay 2100's carbon budget by no more than two or three decades (equivalent to ∼550 or 800 GtC tCDR), respectively. However, simultaneous emission reductions and an earlier establishment of BPs (i.e. around 2035) could result in strong carbon extractions reversing past emissions (e.g. six or eight decades or ∼500 or

  18. Use of Foodomics for Control of Food Processing and Assessing of Food Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josić, D; Peršurić, Ž; Rešetar, D; Martinović, T; Saftić, L; Kraljević Pavelić, S

    Food chain, food safety, and food-processing sectors face new challenges due to globalization of food chain and changes in the modern consumer preferences. In addition, gradually increasing microbial resistance, changes in climate, and human errors in food handling remain a pending barrier for the efficient global food safety management. Consequently, a need for development, validation, and implementation of rapid, sensitive, and accurate methods for assessment of food safety often termed as foodomics methods is required. Even though, the growing role of these high-throughput foodomic methods based on genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic techniques has yet to be completely acknowledged by the regulatory agencies and bodies. The sensitivity and accuracy of these methods are superior to previously used standard analytical procedures and new methods are suitable to address a number of novel requirements posed by the food production sector and global food market. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

  20. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  1. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  2. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  3. Past and Present Biophysical Redundancy of Countries as a Buffer to Changes in Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Carr, Joel; Dell' Angelo, Jampel; D' Odorico, Paolo; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas; Porkka, Miina; Prell, Christina; hide

    2016-01-01

    Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resource constrained, food-importing countries. We present the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category. We took a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

  4. Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, Marianela; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Carr, Joel; Dell'Angelo, Jampel; D'Odorico, Paolo; Gephart, Jessica A.; Kummu, Matti; Magliocca, Nicholas; Porkka, Miina; Prell, Christina; Puma, Michael J.; Ratajczak, Zak; Seekell, David A.; Suweis, Samir; Tavoni, Alessandro

    2016-05-01

    Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resource-constrained, food-importing countries. We present the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of ‘spare land’, available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category. We took a more detailed look at countries classified as ‘Low Income Economies (LIEs)’ since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

  5. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  6. Climate change: A threat towards achieving ‘Sustainable Development Goal number two’ (end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shingirai S. Mugambiwa

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to assess the impacts of climate change towards the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal number two (SDG 2 as well as examining the poverty alleviation strategies by subsistence farmers in South Africa. Widespread hunger and poverty continue to be among the most life-threatening problems confronting mankind. Available statistics show that global poverty remains a serious challenge around the world. Across the globe, one in five people lives on less than $1 a day and one in seven suffers from chronic hunger. Similarly, the developing world is adversely affected by poverty and hunger. In the sub-Saharan Africa, research has revealed a higher prevalence of hunger, malnutrition, poverty and food insecurity. SDG 2 focuses more on eliminating hunger and promoting sustainable agriculture. The study employed an exploratory design and a qualitative method. Snowball sampling was used in selecting relevant sources which led the researchers to other research work on the same field through keywords and reference lists. The researchers employed discourse analysis to analyse data. The study discovered that there are numerous potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It affects crop growth and quality and livestock health. Farming practices could also be affected as well as animals that could be raised in particular climatic areas. The impact of climate change as well as the susceptibility of poor communities is very immense. The article concludes that climate change reduces access to drinking water, negatively affects the health of people and poses a serious threat to food security.

  7. Persistent palatable food preference in rats with a history of limited and extended access to methamphetamine self-administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hr/day) or extended (6 or 9 hr/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1–0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (5 pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5–1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage), or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards. PMID:25582886

  8. Persistent palatable food preference in rats with a history of limited and extended access to methamphetamine self-administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprioli, Daniele; Zeric, Tamara; Thorndike, Eric B; Venniro, Marco

    2015-09-01

    Recent studies have shown that when given a mutually exclusive choice between cocaine and palatable foods, most rats prefer the non-drug rewards over cocaine. Here, we used a discrete choice procedure to assess whether palatable food preference generalizes to rats with a history of limited (3 hours/day) or extended (6 or 9 hours/day) access to methamphetamine self-administration. On different daily sessions, we trained rats to lever-press for either methamphetamine (0.1-0.2 mg/kg/infusion) or palatable food (five pellets per reward delivery) for several weeks; regular food was freely available. We then assessed food-methamphetamine preference either during training, after priming methamphetamine injections (0.5-1.0 mg/kg), following a satiety manipulation (palatable food exposure in the home cage) or after 21 days of withdrawal from methamphetamine. We also assessed progressive ratio responding for palatable food and methamphetamine. We found that independent of the daily drug access conditions and the withdrawal period, the rats strongly preferred the palatable food over methamphetamine, even when they were given free access to the palatable food in the home cage. Intake of methamphetamine and progressive ratio responding for the drug, both of which increased or escalated over time, did not predict preference in the discrete choice test. Results demonstrate that most rats strongly prefer palatable food pellets over intravenous methamphetamine, confirming previous studies using discrete choice procedures with intravenous cocaine. Results also demonstrate that escalation of drug self-administration, a popular model of compulsive drug use, is not associated with a cardinal feature of human addiction of reduced behavioral responding for non-drug rewards. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  9. Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Madukwe

    The study examined the adaptation strategies to climate change in Oke ... adverse effects of climate on their health and well-being and take advantage of the ... to climate change at the farm level of the food crop farmers in Oke-Ogun area of ... of the famers were married while 7.5% were divorced. The educational level of the ...

  10. Nonlinear ecosystem services response to groundwater availability under climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Motew, M.; Booth, E.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2017-12-01

    Depletion of groundwater has been accelerating at regional to global scales. Besides serving domestic, industrial and agricultural needs, in situ groundwater is also a key control on biological, physical and chemical processes across the critical zone, all of which underpin supply of ecosystem services essential for humanity. While there is a rich history of research on groundwater effects on subsurface and surface processes, understanding interactions, nonlinearity and feedbacks between groundwater and ecosystem services remain limited, and almost absent in the ecosystem service literature. Moreover, how climate extremes may alter groundwater effects on services is underexplored. In this research, we used a process-based ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) to quantify groundwater effects on eight ecosystem services related to food, water and biogeochemical processes in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Midwest, USA. We asked: (1) Which ecosystem services are more susceptible to shallow groundwater influences? (2) Do effects of groundwater on ecosystem services vary under contrasting climate conditions (i.e., dry, wet and average)? (3) Where on the landscape are groundwater effects on ecosystem services most pronounced? (4) How do groundwater effects depend on water table depth? Overall, groundwater significantly impacted all services studied, with the largest effects on food production, water quality and quantity, and flood regulation services. Climate also mediated groundwater effects with the strongest effects occurring under dry climatic conditions. There was substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects across the landscape that is driven in part by spatial variations in water table depth. Most ecosystem services responded nonlinearly to groundwater availability, with most apparent groundwater effects occurring when the water table is shallower than a critical depth of 2.5-m. Our findings provide compelling evidence that groundwater plays a vital

  11. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  12. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  13. The Climate Web Library - All the reference reports on climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasse, Gwenael

    2012-01-01

    This document gathers bibliographical information (title and original title, theme, authors, publication date, link to browse the document, and abstract) of documents addressing climatic change (generalities and mechanisms, temperatures, dry periods and rainfalls, snow and ice, oceans, extreme events, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and feedbacks, breaking points and hazardous changes), impacts and consequences of climate change (pollution and health, soft water, ecosystems, food, agriculture and forestry, coasts and low altitude areas, populations and societies, economy), emissions of greenhouse gases (present emissions, evolution scenarios)

  14. Quantitative genetic analysis of responses to larval food limitation in a polyphenic butterfly indicates environment- and trait-specific effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saastamoinen, M.; Brommer, J.E.; Brakefield, P.M.; Zwaan, B.J.

    2013-01-01

    Different components of heritability, including genetic variance (VG), are influenced by environmental conditions. Here, we assessed phenotypic responses of life-history traits to two different developmental conditions, temperature and food limitation. The former represents an environment that

  15. Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

    2018-01-22

    Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world. However, they currently play a very limited role in supporting agricultural decisions in Europe, mainly due to the poor skill of relevant surface variables. Here we show how a combined stress index (CSI), considering both drought and heat stress in summer, can predict maize yield in Europe and how land-surface initialised seasonal climate forecasts can be used to predict it. The CSI explains on average nearly 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions and shows how concurrent heat stress and drought events have influenced recent yield anomalies. Seasonal climate forecast initialised with realistic land-surface achieves better (and marginally useful) skill in predicting the CSI than with climatological land-surface initialisation in south-eastern Europe, part of central Europe, France and Italy.

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  17. Diversifying Food Systems in the Pursuit of Sustainable Food Production and Healthy Diets

    OpenAIRE

    Dwivedi, Sangam L.; van Bueren, Edith T. Lammerts; Ceccarelli, Salvatore; Grando, Stefania; Upadhyaya, Hari D.; Ortiz Rios, Rodomiro Octavio

    2017-01-01

    Increasing demand for nutritious, safe, and healthy food because of a growing population, and the pledge to maintain biodiversity and other resources, pose a major challenge to agriculture that is already threatened by a changing climate. Diverse and healthy diets, largely based on plant-derived food, may reduce diet-related illnesses. Investments in plant sciences will be necessary to design diverse cropping systems balancing productivity, sustainability, and nutritional quality. Cultivar di...

  18. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  19. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenguo Wang

    Full Text Available Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080 on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  20. Plant responses, climate pivot points, and trade-offs in water-limited ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, S. M.; Bunting, E.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem transitions and thresholds are conceptually well-defined and have become a framework to address vegetation response to climate change and land-use intensification, yet there are few approaches to define the environmental conditions which can lead to them. We demonstrate a novel climate pivot point approach using long-term monitoring data from a broad network of permanent plots, satellite imagery, and experimental treatments across the southwestern U.S. The climate pivot point identifies conditions that lead to decreased plant performance and serves as an early warning sign of increased vulnerability of crossing a threshold into an altered ecosystem state. Plant responses and climate pivot points aligned with the lifespan and structural characteristics of species, were modified by soil and landscape attributes of a site, and had non-linear dynamics in some cases. Species with strong increases in abundance when water was available were most susceptible to losses during water shortages, reinforcing plant energetic and physiological tradeoffs. Future research to uncover the heterogeneity of plant responses and climate pivot points at multiple scales can lead to greater understanding of shifts in ecosystem productivity and vulnerability to climate change.

  1. Current Status of Mycotoxin Contamination of Food Commodities in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Nleya

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural products, especially cereal grains, serve as staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa. However, climatic conditions in this region can lead to contamination of these commodities by moulds, with subsequent production of mycotoxins posing health risks to both humans and animals. There is limited documentation on the occurrence of mycotoxins in sub-Saharan African countries, leading to the exposure of their populations to a wide variety of mycotoxins through consumption of contaminated foods. This review aims at highlighting the current status of mycotoxin contamination of food products in Zimbabwe and recommended strategies of reducing this problem. Zimbabwe is one of the African countries with very little information with regards to mycotoxin contamination of its food commodities, both on the market and at household levels. Even though evidence of multitoxin occurrence in some food commodities such as maize and other staple foods exist, available published research focuses only on Aspergillus and Fusarium mycotoxins, namely aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol (DON, trichothecenes, fumonisins, and zearalenone (ZEA. Occurrence of mycotoxins in the food chain has been mainly associated with poor agricultural practices. Analysis of mycotoxins has been done mainly using chromatographic and immunological methods. Zimbabwe has adopted European standards, but the legislation is quite flexible, with testing for mycotoxin contamination in food commodities being done voluntarily or upon request. Therefore, the country needs to tighten its legislation as well as adopt stricter standards that will improve the food safety and security of the masses.

  2. Current Status of Mycotoxin Contamination of Food Commodities in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nleya, Nancy; Adetunji, Modupeade Christianah; Mwanza, Mulunda

    2018-05-03

    Agricultural products, especially cereal grains, serve as staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa. However, climatic conditions in this region can lead to contamination of these commodities by moulds, with subsequent production of mycotoxins posing health risks to both humans and animals. There is limited documentation on the occurrence of mycotoxins in sub-Saharan African countries, leading to the exposure of their populations to a wide variety of mycotoxins through consumption of contaminated foods. This review aims at highlighting the current status of mycotoxin contamination of food products in Zimbabwe and recommended strategies of reducing this problem. Zimbabwe is one of the African countries with very little information with regards to mycotoxin contamination of its food commodities, both on the market and at household levels. Even though evidence of multitoxin occurrence in some food commodities such as maize and other staple foods exist, available published research focuses only on Aspergillus and Fusarium mycotoxins, namely aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol (DON), trichothecenes, fumonisins, and zearalenone (ZEA). Occurrence of mycotoxins in the food chain has been mainly associated with poor agricultural practices. Analysis of mycotoxins has been done mainly using chromatographic and immunological methods. Zimbabwe has adopted European standards, but the legislation is quite flexible, with testing for mycotoxin contamination in food commodities being done voluntarily or upon request. Therefore, the country needs to tighten its legislation as well as adopt stricter standards that will improve the food safety and security of the masses.

  3. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

    2018-01-01

    Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

  4. Economic performance of irrigation capacity development to adapt to climate in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Frank A.; Crawford, Terry L.

    2016-09-01

    additional storage, removal of constraints on weak transportation capacity, limited production scale, poor information access, weak risk-bearing capacity, limited management skills, scarce labor supply, low food processing capacity, and absolute scale constraints, all can raise the economic value of additional irrigation capacity development. Our results light a path forward to policy makers, water administrators, and farm managers, who bear the burden of protecting farm income, food and water security, and rural economic development in the world's dry regions faced by the need to adapt to climate variability.

  5. Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohar, Abdelaziz A.; Ward, Frank A.; Amer, Saud A.

    2013-03-01

    SummaryContinued climate variability, population growth, and rising food prices present ongoing challenges for achieving food and water security in poor countries that lack adequate water infrastructure. Undeveloped storage infrastructure presents a special challenge in northern Afghanistan, where food security is undermined by highly variable water supplies, inefficient water allocation rules, and a damaged irrigation system due three decades of war and conflict. Little peer-reviewed research to date has analyzed the economic benefits of water storage capacity expansions as a mechanism to sustain food security over long periods of variable climate and growing food demands needed to feed growing populations. This paper develops and applies an integrated water resources management framework that analyzes impacts of storage capacity expansions for sustaining farm income and food security in the face of highly fluctuating water supplies. Findings illustrate that in Afghanistan's Balkh Basin, total farm income and food security from crop irrigation increase, but at a declining rate as water storage capacity increases from zero to an amount equal to six times the basin's long term water supply. Total farm income increases by 21%, 41%, and 42% for small, medium, and large reservoir capacity, respectively, compared to the existing irrigation system unassisted by reservoir storage capacity. Results provide a framework to target water infrastructure investments that improve food security for river basins in the world's dry regions with low existing storage capacity that face ongoing climate variability and increased demands for food security for growing populations.

  6. Phytoplankton and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisan, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

  7. Do algae have moral standing? On exploitation, ethical extension, and climate change mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerts, R.J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is a major framing condition for sustainable development of agriculture and food. Global food production is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time it is among the sectors worst affected by climate change. This book brings together a

  8. The Role of Food Banks in Addressing Food Insecurity: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazerghi, Chantelle; McKay, Fiona H; Dunn, Matthew

    2016-08-01

    Food banks play a major role in the food aid sector by distributing donated and purchased groceries directly to food insecure families. The public health implications of food insecurity are significant, particularly as food insecurity has a higher prevalence among certain population groups. This review consolidates current knowledge about the function and efficacy of food banks to address food insecurity. A systematic review was conducted. Thirty-five publications were reviewed, of which 14 examined food security status, 13 analysed nutritional quality of food provided, and 24 considered clients' needs in relation to food bank use. This review found that while food banks have an important role to play in providing immediate solutions to severe food deprivation, they are limited in their capacity to improve overall food security outcomes due to the limited provision of nutrient-dense foods in insufficient amounts, especially from dairy, vegetables and fruits. Food banks have the potential to improve food security outcomes when operational resources are adequate, provisions of perishable food groups are available, and client needs are identified and addressed.

  9. Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iler, Amy M.; Høye, Toke T.; Inouye, David W.; Schmidt, Niels M.

    2013-01-01

    Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974–2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996–2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions. PMID:23836793

  10. Climatic Sensitivity of a Mixed Forest Association of White Spruce and Trembling Aspen at Their Southern Range Limit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  12. Factors affecting food security and contribution of modern technologies in food sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Premanandh, Jagadeesan

    2011-12-01

    The concept of food insecurity is complex and goes beyond the simplistic idea of a country's inability to feed its population. The global food situation is redefined by many driving forces such as population growth, availability of arable lands, water resources, climate change and food availability, accessibility and loss. The combined effect of these factors has undeniably impacted global food production and security. This article reviews the key factors influencing global food insecurity and emphasises the need to adapt science-based technological innovations to address the issue. Although anticipated benefits of modern technologies suggest a level of food production that will sustain the global population, both political will and sufficient investments in modern agriculture are needed to alleviate the food crisis in developing countries. In this globalised era of the 21st century, many determinants of food security are trans-boundary and require multilateral agreements and actions for an effective solution. Food security and hunger alleviation on a global scale are within reach provided that technological innovations are accepted and implemented at all levels. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  13. Beyond local climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; Lambin, Eric F.

    2014-01-01

    At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been...

  14. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von.

    1994-01-01

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  15. Benthic Foraminifera, Food in the Deep Sea, and Limits to Bentho-Pelagic Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.; Boscolo-Galazzo, F.; Arreguin-Rodrigu, G. J.; Ortiz, S.; Alegret, L.

    2015-12-01

    The deep-sea is the largest habitat on Earth, contains highly diverse biota, but is very little known. Many of its abundant benthic biota (e.g., nematodes) are not preserved in the fossil record. Calcareous and agglutinated benthic foraminifera (unicellular eukaryotes, Rhizaria; efficient dispersers) and ostracodes (Animalia, Crustacea; non-efficient dispersers) are the most common organisms providing a fossil record of deep-sea environments. Very little food is supplied to the deep-sea, because organic matter produced by photosynthesis is largely degraded before it arrives at the seafloor. Only a few % of organic matter is carried to the ocean bottom by 'marine snow', with its particle size and behavior in the water column controlled by surface ecosystem structure, including type of dominant primary producers (diatoms, cyanobacteria). Food supply and its seasonality are generally seen as the dominant control on benthic assemblages (combined with oxygenation), providing bentho-pelagic coupling between primary and benthic productivity. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages (composition and density) thus are used widely to estimate past productivity, especially during episodes of global climate change, ocean acidification, and mass extinction of primary producers. We show that some environmental circumstances may result in interrupting bentho-pelagic coupling, e.g. through lateral supply of organic matter along continental margins (adding more refractory organic matter), through trophic focusing and/or fine particle winnowing on seamounts (giving an advantage to suspension feeders), and through carbonate undersaturation (giving advantage to infaunal over epifaunal calcifyers). In addition, increased remineralization of organic matter combined with increased metabolic rates may cause assemblages to reflect more oligotrophic conditions at stable primary productivity during periods of global warming. As a result, benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates must be carefully

  16. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosol, Renata; Powell-Hellyer, Stephanie; Chan, Hing Man

    2016-01-01

    The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Data collected during the 2007-2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline) resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  17. Impacts of decline harvest of country food on nutrient intake among Inuit in Arctic Canada: impact of climate change and possible adaptation plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Rosol

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pervasive food insecurity and the diet transition away from local, nutrient-rich country foods present a public health challenge among Inuit living in the Canadian Arctic. While environmental factors such as climate change decreased the accessibility and availability of many country food species, new species were introduced into regions where they were previously unavailable. An adaptation such as turning to alternate country food species can be a viable solution to substitute for the nutrients provided by the declined food species. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact on nutrient intake using hypothetical scenarios that current commonly harvested country foods were reduced by 50%, and were replaced with alternate or new species. Methods: Data collected during the 2007–2008 Inuit Health Survey from 36 Canadian Arctic communities spanning Nunavut, the Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Nunatsiavut were used. Results: A 50% decline in consumption of fish, whale, ringed seals and birds (the food that was reported to be in decline resulted in a significant decrease in essential nutrient intake. Possible substitute foods were identified but some nutrients such as zinc and especially vitamin D were most often found lacking in the alternative diet. Conclusions: If the alternative species are not available or feasible, more expensive and less nutritionally dense store-bought foods may be sought. Given the superior quality of country foods and their association with food security, and Inuit cultural health and personal identity, developing skills and awareness for adaptation, promoting regional sharing networks, forming a co-management agency and continuing nutritional monitoring may potentially preserve the nutritional integrity of Inuit diet, and in turn their health and cultural survival.

  18. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  19. Can Seaweed Farming Play a Role in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation?

    KAUST Repository

    Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-04-12

    Seaweed aquaculture, the fastest-growing component of global food production, offers a slate of opportunities to mitigate, and adapt to climate change. Seaweed farms release carbon that maybe buried in sediments or exported to the deep sea, therefore acting as a CO2 sink. The crop can also be used, in total or in part, for biofuel production, with a potential CO2 mitigation capacity, in terms of avoided emissions from fossil fuels, of about 1,500 tons CO2 km−2 year−1. Seaweed aquaculture can also help reduce the emissions from agriculture, by improving soil quality substituting synthetic fertilizer and when included in cattle fed, lowering methane emissions from cattle. Seaweed aquaculture contributes to climate change adaptation by damping wave energy and protecting shorelines, and by elevating pH and supplying oxygen to the waters, thereby locally reducing the effects of ocean acidification and de-oxygenation. The scope to expand seaweed aquaculture is, however, limited by the availability of suitable areas and competition for suitable areas with other uses, engineering systems capable of coping with rough conditions offshore, and increasing market demand for seaweed products, among other factors. Despite these limitations, seaweed farming practices can be optimized to maximize climate benefits, which may, if economically compensated, improve the income of seaweed farmers.

  20. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...