Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

Northern peatlands in global climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

1996-12-31

Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

Science.gov (United States)

Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

2017-04-01

Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

Observed climatic changes in Shanghai during 1873-2002

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANGQiang; CHENJiaqi; ZHANGZengxin

2005-01-01

Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies,Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.

How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Döll, Petra; Schmied, Hannes Müller

2012-01-01

To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr −1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr −1 ) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

On the Baltic Sea Response to Climate Change: Model Implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omstedt, Anders; Leppaeranta, Matti

1999-01-01

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea to climate change is reviewed on the basis of recent model studies. In general, the presently available models indicate that the Baltic Sea is a most sensitive system to climate change, particularly in air temperature, wind, fresh water inflow and the barotropic forcing in the entrance area. Available scenarios for ice conditions and climate warming around year 2100 show 2-3 months' shortening of the ice season in the Bothnian Bay and about 0.4 m decrease in the maximum annual ice thickness. Corresponding scenarios for climate cooling show 1-2 months' longer ice season in the Bothnian Bay and 0.2 - 0.5 m increase in the maximum annual ice thickness

Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.;

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knudsen, Endre; Linden, Andreas; Both, Christiaan; Jonzen, Niclas; Pulido, Francisco; Saino, Nicola; Sutherland, William J.; Bach, Lars A.; Coppack, Timothy; Ergon, Torbjorn; Gienapp, Phillip; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gordo, Oscar; Hedenstrom, Anders; Lehikoinen, Esa; Marra, Peter P.; Moller, Anders P.; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Peron, Guillaume; Ranta, Esa; Rubolini, Diego; Sparks, Tim H.; Spina, Fernando; Studds, Colin E.; Saether, Stein A.; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ergon, Torbjørn; Hedenström, Anders; Møller, Anders P.

2011-01-01

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous

Comparison of methods for extracting annual cycle with changing amplitude in climate science

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Q.; Fu, Z.

2017-12-01

Changes of annual cycle gains a growing concern recently. The basic hypothesis regards annual cycle as constant. Climatology mean within a time period is usually used to depict the annual cycle. Obviously this hypothesis contradicts with the fact that annual cycle is changing every year. For the lack of a unified definition about annual cycle, the approaches adopted in extracting annual cycle are various and may lead to different results. The precision and validity of these methods need to be examined. In this work we numerical experiments with known monofrequent annual cycle are set to evaluate five popular extracting methods: fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD) and Seasonal trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Three different types of changing amplitude will be generated: steady, linear increasing and nonlinearly varying. Comparing the annual cycle extracted by these methods with the generated annual cycle, we find that (1) NMD performs best in depicting annual cycle itself and its amplitude change, (2) fitting sinusoids, complex demodulation and EEMD methods are more sensitive to long-term memory(LTM) of generated time series thus lead to overfitting annual cycle and too noisy amplitude, oppositely the result of STL underestimate the amplitude variation (3)all of them can present the amplitude trend correctly in long-time scale but the errors on account of noise and LTM are common in some methods over short time scales.

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Xiuliang; Bai, Jie; Li, Longhui; Kurban, Alishir; De Maeyer, Philippe

2017-01-01

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM) by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78) mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12). The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.

The dominant role of climate change in determining changes in evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuliang Yuan

Full Text Available The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China has experienced significant land cover and climate change since the beginning of the 21st century. However, a reasonable simulation of evapotranspiration (ET and its response to environmental factors are still unclear. For this study, to simulate ET and its response to climate and land cover change in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2012, we used the Common Land Model (CoLM by adding irrigation effects for cropland and modifying root distributions and the root water uptake process for shrubland. Our results indicate that mean annual ET from 2001 to 2012 was 131.22 (±21.78 mm/year and demonstrated no significant trend (p = 0.12. The model simulation also indicates that climate change was capable of explaining 99% of inter-annual ET variability; land cover change only explained 1%. Land cover change caused by the expansion of croplands increased annual ET by 1.11 mm while climate change, mainly resulting from both decreased temperature and precipitation, reduced ET by 21.90 mm. Our results imply that climate change plays a dominant role in determining changes in ET, and also highlight the need for appropriate land-use strategies for managing water sources in dryland ecosystems within Xinjiang.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center annual report for 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Varela-Acevedo, Elda

2014-01-01

In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to respond to the demands of natural resource managers for rigorous scientific information and effective tools for assessing and responding to climate change. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Va., the NCCWSC has invested more than $93 million (through FY13) in cutting-edge climate change research and, in response to Secretarial Order No. 3289, established and is managing eight regional Department of Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs). In 2013:

Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

2001-01-01

, an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2012-01-01

Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

2018-04-01

The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

Documented changes in annual runoff and attribution since the 1950s within selected rivers in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lü-Liu Liu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available To enable local water resource management and maintenance of ecosystem integrity and to protect and mitigate against flood and drought, it is necessary to determine changes in long-term series of streamflow and to distinguish the roles that climate change and human disturbance play in these changes. A review of previous research on the detection and attribution of observed changes in annual runoff in China shows a decrease in annual runoff since the 1950s in northern China in areas such as the Songhuajiang River water resources zone, the Liaohe River water resources zone, the Haihe River water resources zone, the Yellow River water resources zone, and the Huaihe River water resources Zone. Furthermore, abrupt changes in annual runoff occurred mostly in the 1970s and 1980s in all the above zones, except for some of the sub-basins in the middle Yellow River where abrupt change occurred in the 1990s. Changes in annual runoff are found to be mainly caused by climate change in the western Songhuajiang River basin, the upper mainstream of the Yangtze River, and the western Pearl River basin, which shows that studies on the impact of climate change on future water resources under different climate change scenarios are required to enable planning and management by agencies in these river basins. However, changes in annual runoff were found to be mainly caused by human activities in most of the catchments in northern China (such as the southern Songhuajiang River, Liaohe River, Haihe River, the lower reach and some of the catchments within the middle Yellow River basin and in middle-eastern China, such as the Huaihe River and lower mainstream of the Yangtze River. This suggests that current hydro-climatic data can continue to be used in water-use planning and that policymakers need to focus on water resource management and protection.

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

2011-02-15

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Managing time in a changing world: Timing of avian annual cycle stages under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tomotani, B.M.

2017-01-01

Animals need to time their seasonal activities such as breeding and migration to occur at the right time. They use cues from the environment to predict changes and organise their activities accordingly. What happens, then, when climate change interferes with this ability to make predictions? Climate

Multiple aspects of climate change - Summary of presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, Jean-Claude; Bauer, Pierre; Le Treut, Herve; Woeppelmann, Guy; Kouraev, Alexei; Remy, Frederique; Berthier, Etienne; Lehodey, Patrick; Lebourgeois, Francois; Chuine, Isabelle; Vennetier, Michel; Duchene, Eric; Lafaye, Murielle

2011-01-01

The French Meteorological Society (SMF) organized its annual scientific day on March 23, 2011 on the topic of the multiple aspects of climate change. The aim was to take stock of the lessons learnt from the different meteorological markers in several domains (agriculture, forests, ecosystems, rise of sea level, changes in marine biodiversity, health, snow and ice caps..). This paper summarizes the seven presentations given at this meeting: 1 - climate change today and tomorrow (H. Le Treut); 2 - rise of oceans level: estimations and regional variability (G. Woeppelmann); 3 - polar caps and continental cryo-sphere as seen from space (A. Kouraev, F. Remy and E. Berthier); 4 - impact of climate change on exploited marine populations: projections and uncertainties (P. Lehodey); 5 - stakes of climate change on agricultural and winery activities in France (E. Duchene); 6 - impact of climate change on forest trees phenology and consequence on their survival and operation (F. Lebourgeois, I. Chuine and M. Vennetier); 7 - 'tele-epidemiology': a health-aid in a climate change context. (J.S.)

Trends of climatic changes considering over years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 for Sarajevo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Majstorovic, Zeljko; Toromanovic, Aida; Halilovic, Senada

2004-01-01

Linear trends of changes in climatic parameters have been observed for Sarajevo and we considered correlation with world's trends and mutual correlation of years .1894-1993 and 1894-2003, both for the same meteorological station Sarajevo. In purpose of ascertaining correlation with global climate's changes, Sarajevo's records have been studied over the primary climatic parameters: average annual temperatures, absolute annual maximum and minimum temperatures, annual sum of rainfalls and drought index. We used method of adding of linear trends. Correlation with global tendency of climate has be shown as follow: - We notice increase of average temperature about 0.7 o C in past 100 years - We notice a rapid increase of absolute minimum temperature in compare with values of absolute maximum temperatures. - Annual sum of rainfalls doesn't show drastic changes. - We notice asymmetry trend for some actual seasons. - We notice increase of drought. During correlation of trends for years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 has been noticed rapid increase of temperature and drought-index, while considering rainfalls there has not been drastic changes. (Author)

Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

2002-01-01

In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

Energy and climate change: the main analyses of Regards sur la Terre. An annual publication on sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacquet, P.; Tubiana, L.; Colombier, Michel; Loup, Jacques; Laponche, Bernard; Martin-Amouroux, Jean-Marie; Chateau, Bertrand; Kieken, Hubert; Kleiche, Mustapha; Heller, Thomas C.; Mathy, Sandrine; Hourcade, Jean-Charles; Goldemberg, Jose; Pizer, William A.

2007-01-01

In November 2006, the French Development Agency, AFD (Agence francaise de developpement) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, IDDRI (Institut du developpement durable et des relations internationales) launched an annual publication on sustainable development in a global perspective, Regards sur la Terre, published by Les Presses de Sciences Po (Paris). Regards sur la Terre includes an analysis of the most important international events of the last twelve months in the field of sustainable development, along with a thematic section, which in the first edition focused on energy and climate change. This booklet presents the overall introduction of the 2007 publication and the introduction of its thematic section, as well as a selection of the main chapters dealing with the theme of energy and climate change. Contents: Awakening and crisis of confidence; Reorienting our Societies; Energy in the world: Challenges and prospects; Challenges and constraints for energy supply: The coal hard facts; Satisfying energy growth in emerging countries; Diversifying power generation in China; From Rio to Marrakech: Development in climate negotiations; An international coordination regime come what may; The perspective of developing countries; An American 'point of view'

Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olumide D. Onafeso

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.

The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram

2011-09-01

Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

2007-01-01

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R.; Foltescu, V. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2005-02-01

The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition. (author)

Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Langner, Joakim; Bergström, Robert; Foltescu, Valentin

The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition.

Canada's climate change voluntary challenge and registry program : 6. annual progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-10-01

A Canadian integrated energy company, Suncor Energy Inc. comprises a corporate group, three operating business units, and two emerging businesses. This annual Progress Report for Canada's Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR) Program represents the sixth for this company. Suncor is committed to sustainable development. Some initiatives undertaken in 1999 by Suncor included: Oil Sands Project Millennium, which will more than double the actual production of crude oil and fuel products by 2002. Suncor is divesting of conventional oil properties in order to concentrate on exploration and production of natural gas. Alternative and renewable energy will see an investment of 100 million over the next five years. The money will be allocated to research and development, the production of fuels from biomass, and conversion of municipal solid waste to energy through the recovery of methane from landfills. Since 1990, the emissions of carbon dioxide have been reduced to 14 per cent below 1990 levels, and reductions of 622, 000 tonnes of greenhouse gases. A comprehensive tracking, reporting, and management system for greenhouse gases was implemented. Ongoing improvements in quality and comprehensiveness have validated the methodology used to monitor emissions inventories and sources. Initiatives in internal and external awareness of greenhouse gases education were implemented, such as speaking engagements at climate change activities, the retrofit of schools with advanced energy-efficient technology, education programs, employee suggestion programs, etc. Collaboration with external partners on research and development projects represents a major building block in this approach. Some of the research and development projects involve the development of advanced carbon dioxide capture and geologic sequestration technologies, work on the production of alternative and renewable energy from Canadian municipal landfills, and the study of a new process to extract heavy

Climate change is catchy – but when will it really hurt?

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Sweijd, ML

2015-12-01

Full Text Available -linked diseases. While climate varies in the medium (inter-annual) time frame, this variability itself may be oscillating and/or trending on cyclical and long-term (climate change) scales because of regional and global scale climate phenomena such as the El...

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon E. Keeley

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation

Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Kinnell, Peter

2016-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

The Effects of Inter-annual Climate Variability on the Departures of Leatherback Marine Turtles from the California Current Ecosystem

OpenAIRE

Van Zerr, Vanessa E

2013-01-01

The Pacific Ocean is a highly variable environment, and changes in oceanographic conditions impact the distributions of many organisms. Inter-annual climate variability, especially the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, is known to have wide-ranging impacts on organisms in the California Current. Understanding the factors that drive changes in the spatial ecology of organisms, such as inter-annual climate variability, is essential in many cases for effective conservation. Leatherback marine turtle...

Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew Daniel Petrie

2014-01-01

This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

Climate Change, Wildland Fires and Public Health

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change is contributing to an increase in the severity of wildland fires. The annual acreage burned in the U.S. has risen steadily since 1985, and the fire season has lengthened. Wildland fires impair air quality by producing massive quantities of particulate air polluta...

Climate Change and Political Action: the Citizens' Climate Lobby

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, P. H.; Secord, S.

2014-12-01

Recognizing the reality of global warming and its origin in greenhouse gas emissions, what does one do about it? Individual action is commendable, but inadequate. Collective action is necessary--Citizens' Climate Lobby proposes a "fee-and-dividend" approach in which a fee is imposed on carbon-based fuel at its sources of production. The fee increases annually in a predictable manner. The funds collected are paid out to consumers as monthly dividends. The approach is market-based, in that the cost of the fee to producers is passed on to consumers in the cost of carbon-based fuels. Downstream energy providers and consumers then make their choices regarding investments and purchases. Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL) builds national consensus by growing local Chapters, led and populated by volunteers. The Chapters are charged with public education and presenting the fee-and-dividend proposal to their respective Representatives and Senators. CCL builds trust by its non-partisan approach, meeting with all members of Congress regardless of party affiliation and stance on climate-related issues. CCL also builds trust by a non-confrontational approach, seeking to understand rather than to oppose. CCL works both locally, through its local Chapters, and nationally, with an annual conference in Washington DC during which all Congressional offices are visited. CCL recognizes that a long-term, sustained effort is necessary to address climate change.

Climate change and the safety of the Netherlands. Erasmus Lecture 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vellinga, P.

2003-01-01

In this annual Erasmus Lecture attention is paid to the effects of climate change for the Netherlands: are the Dutch still safe, now and in the future, are they prepared for the worst, and are they willing to pay whatever is needed to adjust or to reduce or stop the impacts of climate change [nl

Ensuring sustainable development within a changing climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meltofte Traerup, S L [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, Systems Analysis Div., Roskilde (Denmark)

2010-09-15

The research in this thesis focuses on the impacts of and adaptation to present variations in climate and to projected future changes. The research has dealt with different levels, i.e. household/community, national/policymaking, and sectoral level, to show different perspectives of the implications of climate variability and change to development. In particular, it focuses on how present variations in rainfall patterns affect rural households, ways to strengthen households' resilience to climate variability, and the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. The research attempts to contribute to the knowledge that informs the development community and national governments for policy-making on the implications of climate change on development planning and strategies. It is argued in the thesis that it is essential for sustainable development to mainstream climate change into strategies and planning where relevant. To do this a knowledge of the costs and benefits of diverse adaptation measures is essential. Fluctuations in annual and seasonal rainfall, both in terms of modest and excessive rains, are found to cause negative shocks to rural household incomes in the Kagera a region of Tanzania. An analysis of rainfall and household data for the region shows large local discrepancies in the distribution of rainfall, as well as in households reporting shocks to income caused by harvest failure. It is also evident from the research results that the timing of rainfall seems to play a greater role than the level of annual precipitation. The coping strategies that households report following subsequent to a harvest failure further show local divergence in the choice of, for example, taking casual employment and relying on support from others in the form of informal networks. These results support earlier work which points in the same direction and emphasizes that policies should be targeted to local specificities. This provides a great motivation for targeted responses to

Ensuring sustainable development within a changing climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meltofte Traerup, S.L. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, Systems Analysis Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

2010-09-15

The research in this thesis focuses on the impacts of and adaptation to present variations in climate and to projected future changes. The research has dealt with different levels, i.e. household/community, national/policymaking, and sectoral level, to show different perspectives of the implications of climate variability and change to development. In particular, it focuses on how present variations in rainfall patterns affect rural households, ways to strengthen households' resilience to climate variability, and the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. The research attempts to contribute to the knowledge that informs the development community and national governments for policy-making on the implications of climate change on development planning and strategies. It is argued in the thesis that it is essential for sustainable development to mainstream climate change into strategies and planning where relevant. To do this a knowledge of the costs and benefits of diverse adaptation measures is essential. Fluctuations in annual and seasonal rainfall, both in terms of modest and excessive rains, are found to cause negative shocks to rural household incomes in the Kagera a region of Tanzania. An analysis of rainfall and household data for the region shows large local discrepancies in the distribution of rainfall, as well as in households reporting shocks to income caused by harvest failure. It is also evident from the research results that the timing of rainfall seems to play a greater role than the level of annual precipitation. The coping strategies that households report following subsequent to a harvest failure further show local divergence in the choice of, for example, taking casual employment and relying on support from others in the form of informal networks. These results support earlier work which points in the same direction and emphasizes that policies should be targeted to local specificities. This provides a great motivation for targeted

U.S. Annual/Seasonal Climate Normals (1981-2010)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Annual Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate...

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, C. S.

1997-01-01

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Climate Change in the Pacific Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Hamnett, Michael P.

Climate change have been a major concern among Pacific Islanders since the late 1990s. During that period, Time Magazine featured a cover story that read: Say Goodbye to the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu from sea level rise. Since that time, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, UN and government agencies and academic researchers have been assessing the impacts of long-term climate change and seasonal to inter-annual climate variability on the Pacific Islands. The consensus is that long-term climate change will result in more extreme weather and tidal events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and salt water inundation. Extreme weather events already occur in the Pacific Islands and they are patterned. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events impact rainfall, tropical cyclone and tidal patterns. In 2000, the first National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change concluded that long-term climate change will result in more El Niño events or a more El Niño like climate every year. The bad news is that will mean more natural disasters. The good news is that El Niño events can be predicted and people can prepare for them. The reallly bad news is that some Pacific Islands are already becoming uninhabitable because of erosion of land or the loss of fresh water from droughts and salt water intrusion. Many of the most vulnerable countries already overseas populations in New Zealand, the US, or larger Pacific Island countries. For some Pacific Islander abandoning their home countries will be their only option.

Changes in seasonal climate patterns from 34-4 ka in a Soreq Cave (Israel) speleothem: Sub-annual resolution by ion microprobe and CLFM

Science.gov (United States)

Orland, I. J.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Kita, N.; Ayalon, A.; Valley, J. W.

2009-12-01

Speleothems provide an important proxy-record of paleoclimate. Isotopic data from calcite-dominated cave formations have been used to identify changes in annual rainfall, monsoon strength, telecommunication of Northern Hemisphere climate aberrations, changes in vegetation cover, and other region-specific paleoclimate time-series over annual to millennial timescales. As more research is devoted to understanding abrupt climate change events, there is a need to develop high-temporal-resolution records from continental regions. However, in most isotopic studies, seasonality information is lost due to technical limitations. This study focuses on a speleothem from the semi-arid Eastern Mediterranean region (Soreq Cave, Israel) where prior research shows that conventional drill-sampling methods permit a temporal resolution of ~10-50 years in speleothem paleoclimate records. The WiscSIMS lab has developed analytical protocols for ion microprobe analysis that yield a precision of ~0.3‰ (2 s.d.) in δ18O from 10 μm-diameter spots, which permit multiple analyses/year in many speleothems. Orland et al. (2009, Quat. Res.) establish the methodology for the current study by identifying seasonal variability using a combination of confocal laser fluorescent microscopy (CLFM) and ion microprobe analysis in a younger (~2-1 ka) Soreq speleothem that has a consistent bright-grading-to-dark fluorescence pattern within each annual band. Further, Orland et al. define a quantitative measure of seasonality, Δ18O, that measures the difference in δ18O between bright and dark fluorescent portions of individual annual growth bands [Δ18O = δ18Odark - δ18Obright]. Smaller values of Δ18O are interpreted to be caused by dry years. The current study employs the aforementioned methods to examine seasonality trends in a sample that covers a much longer time period. We report δ18O from >1000 spots across a radial traverse of Soreq Cave sample 2N matched to imaging of annual growth bands by

Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

How Does The Climate Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, R. N.

2011-12-01

In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Climate change and water resources in Britain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnell, N.W.

1998-01-01

This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options. 39 refs., 5 figs

Climate change and agriculture in Denmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olesen, J.E.

2001-01-01

This chapter reviews the current knowledge on effects of climate change on agriculture in Denmark, and the contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark. The chapter also considers the possibilities of Danish agriculture to adapt to changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The relations to other aspects of global change are discussed, including liberalisation of world markets and changes in land use. Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century depending on socioeconomic development. Winter rainfall may increase up to 20%. This implies a wide range of possible consequences. Agricultural productivity may be expected to increase under increasing temperature and increasing CO 2 concentration. Highter temperatures will increase the risk of pests and deseases. Warming in association with increased winter rainfall will also increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Climate change may thus be expected to reinforce the current trends in Danish agriculture of declining cattle population and increasing pig and cereal production. Apart from an anticipated continued decline in total agricultural area, land use will probably not be greatly affected. The current environmental regulation in Denmark aims at reducing pesticide use and nitrogen losses from agriculture. Some of the regulations are very detailed and directly regulate farming practices in a manner that may not provide the most cost-effective mechanism under a changed climate. Some of these existing rigid frameworks for environmental regulation should thus be substituted by more flexible goal-oriented environmental protection strategies, in order to ensure sustainability of farming under global climate change. (LN)

Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

2012-06-01

Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

2016-03-01

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia [Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel); Mendelsohn, Robert [Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut (United States)

2008-04-15

This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia; Mendelsohn, Robert

2008-01-01

This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

2015-12-04

Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

How light competition between plants affects their response to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Loon, van M.P.; Schieving, F.; Rietkerk, M.; Dekker, S.C.; Sterck, F.J.; Anten, N.P.R.

2014-01-01

How plants respond to climate change is of major concern, as plants will strongly impact future ecosystem functioning, food production and climate. Here, we investigated how vegetation structure and functioning may be influenced by predicted increases in annual temperatures and atmospheric CO2

Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fan Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.

Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Seeley, M. W.

2011-12-01

Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

[Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model].

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Yu-zhi; Zhang, Zheng-dong; Meng, Jin-hua

2015-04-01

SWAT model, an extensively used distributed hydrological model, was used to quantitatively analyze the influences of changes in land use and climate on the runoff at watershed scale. Liuxihe Watershed' s SWAT model was established and three scenarios were set. The calibration and validation at three hydrological stations of Wenquan, Taipingchang and Nangang showed that the three factors of Wenquan station just only reached the standard in validated period, and the other two stations had relative error (RE) 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency valve (Ens) > 0.75, suggesting that SWAT model was appropriate for simulating runoff response to land use change and climate variability in Liuxihe watershed. According to the integrated scenario simulation, the annual runoff increased by 11.23 m3 x s(-1) from 2001 to 2010 compared with the baseline period from 1991 to 2000, among which, the land use change caused an annual runoff reduction of 0.62 m3 x s(-1), whereas climate variability caused an annual runoff increase of 11.85 m3 x s(-1). Apparently, the impact of climate variability was stronger than that of land use change. On the other hand, the scenario simulation of extreme land use showed that compared with the land use in 2000, the annual runoff of the farmland scenario and the grassland scenario increased by 2.7% and 0.5% respectively, while that of the forest land scenario were reduced by 0.7%, which suggested that forest land had an ability of diversion closure. Furthermore, the scenario simulation of climatic variability indicated that the change of river runoff correlated positively with precipitation change (increase of 11.6% in annual runoff with increase of 10% in annual precipitation) , but negatively with air temperature change (reduction of 0.8% in annual runoff with increase of 1 degrees C in annual mean air temperature), which showed that the impact of precipitation variability was stronger than that of air temperature change. Therefore, in face of climate

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Changes in the Amplitude and Phase of the Annual Cycle: quantifying from surface wind series in China

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Tao

2013-04-01

Climate change is not only reflected in the changes in annual means of climate variables but also in the changes in their annual cycles (seasonality), especially in the regions outside the tropics. Changes in the timing of seasons, especially the wind season, have gained much attention worldwide in recent decade or so. We introduce long-range correlated surrogate data to Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method, which represent the statistic characteristics of data better than white noise. The new method we named Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Long-range Correlated noise (EEMD-LRC) and applied to 600 station wind speed records. This new method is applied to investigate the trend in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China's daily mean surface wind speed for the period 1971-2005. The amplitude of seasonal variation decrease significantly in the past half century over China, which can be well explained by Annual Cycle component from EEMD-LRC. Furthermore, the phase change of annual cycle lead to strongly shorten of wind season in spring, and corresponding with strong windy day frequency change over Northern China.

Climate change impacts and adaptation : a Canadian perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemmen, D.S.; Warren, F.J.

2004-01-01

This book summarizes the research that has been conducted in Canada over the past five years on the issue of climate change impacts on key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, transportation, and human health and well-being. The book refers to the growing evidence that climate change is occurring. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these changes have already contributed to increases in annual precipitation, cloud cover and extreme temperatures over the last 50 years. It suggests that it in order to develop an effective strategy for adaptation, it is necessary to understand the vulnerability of each sector to climate change in terms of the nature of climate change, the climatic sensitivity of the region being considered, and the capacity to adapt to the changes. Adaptation will require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in order to lower the rate of climate change. Problems associated with water resources include water quality issues that relate to water shortages from droughts, or excesses from floods. The impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Some studies have suggested that higher temperatures would benefit the forestry sector by improving the growth rate of trees, but the increase in the frequency and severity of moisture stress and forest disturbances would create other problems. Adaptations in the fisheries sector may have implications for the water resources, transportation, tourism and human health sectors. The impact of climate change in the coastal zone may include changes in water levels, wave patterns, storm surges, and thickness of seasonal ice cover. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in the transportation sector include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost

The impact of climate change on river discharges in Eastern Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Minea, Ionut

2014-05-01

Climate changes imply many changes in different socioeconomic and environmental fields. Among the most important impacts are changes in water resources. Long- and mid-term river discharge flow analysis is essential for the effective management of water resources. In this work, the changes in two climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and river discharges and the connections between precipitation and river discharges were investigated. Seasonal and annual climatic and hydrological data collected at six weather stations and 17 hydrological stations were employed. The data sets cover 57 years (1950-2006). The modified Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate trends, and the Bravais-Pearson correlation index was chosen to detect the connections between precipitation and river discharge data series. The main findings are as follows: A general increase was identified in all the three parameters. The air temperature data series showed the highest frequency of statistically significant slopes, mainly in annual and spring series. All data series, except the series for winter, showed an increase in precipitation; in winter, a significant decrease in precipitation was observed at most of the stations. The increase in precipitation is reflected in the upward trends of the river discharge flows, as verified by the good Bravais-Pearson correlations, mainly for annual, summer, and autumn series

The Effect of Thermal Mass on Annual Heat Load and Thermal Comfort in Cold Climate Construction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stevens, Vanessa; Kotol, Martin; Grunau, Bruno

2016-01-01

been shown to reduce the annual heating demand. However, few studies exist regarding the effects of thermal mass in cold climates. The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of high thermal mass on the annual heat demand and thermal comfort in a typical Alaskan residence using energy......Thermal mass in building construction refers to a building material's ability to absorb and release heat based on changing environmental conditions. In building design, materials with high thermal mass used in climates with a diurnal temperature swing around the interior set-point temperature have...... modeling software. The model simulations show that increased thermal mass can decrease the risk of summer overheating in Alaskan residences. They also show that increased thermal mass does not significantly decrease the annual heat load in residences located in cold climates. These results indicate...

Assessing climate change impacts on soil salinity development with proximal and satellite sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Changes in climate patterns have dramatically influenced some agricultural areas. Examples include the historic 5-year drought in California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the 20-year above average annual rainfall in the Red River Valley (RRV) of the Midwestern USA. Climate change may have impacted ...

Annual energy analysis of concrete containing phase change materials for building envelopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiele, Alexander M.; Jamet, Astrid; Sant, Gaurav; Pilon, Laurent

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Adding PCM to concrete walls can significantly reduce the cooling needs of buildings. • Climate, season, and wall orientation strongly affect energy and cost savings. • The PCM melting temperature should be near the desired indoor temperature. • Benefits are maximum for outdoor temperature oscillating around set indoor temperature. • Adding PCM had little effect on heating energy needs and associated cost savings. - Abstract: This paper examines the annual energy and cost savings potential of adding microencapsulated phase change material to the exterior concrete walls of an average-sized single family home in California climate zones 3 (San Francisco, CA) and 9 (Los Angeles, CA). The annual energy and cost savings were larger for South- and West-facing walls than for other walls. They were also the largest when the phase change temperature was near the desired indoor temperature. The addition of microencapsulated phase change material to the building walls reduced the cooling load in summer substantially more than the heating load in winter. This was attributed to the cold winter temperatures resulting in nearly unidirectional heat flux on many days. The annual cooling load reduction in an average-sized single family home in San Francisco and in Los Angeles ranged from 85% to 100% and from 53% to 82%, respectively, for phase change material volume fraction ranging from 0.1 to 0.3. The corresponding annual electricity cost savings ranged from $36 to $42 in San Francisco and from $94 to $143 in Los Angeles. From an energy standpoint, the best climate for using building materials containing uniformly distributed microencapsulated phase change material would have outdoor temperature oscillations centered around the desired indoor temperature for the entire year

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Climate change impacts on runoff and hydropower in the Nordic countries. Final report from the project 'Climate change and energy production'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roar Saelthun, N.; Aittoniemi, P.; Bergstroem, S.

1998-01-01

The Nordic research program 'Climate change and energy production' has been carried out in co-operation between the Nordic hydrological services and the Nordic hydroelectric power industry with funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers and participating institutions. The program has been running for the period 1991-1996. The main objective of the research program was to analyse the effects of a future global climate change on the Nordic system for hydroelectric power production due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main parts of the program have been: A. Testing and improvements of hydrological models, with special emphasis on evapotranspiration, snow melt and glacier mass balance submodels. B. Assessment of the capability of existing energy planning models to analyse climate change impacts. C. Establishment of state-of-art scenarios for meteorological variables. Estimation of runoff scenarios. D. Analysis of climate change impacts on electricity consumption. E. Analysis of impacts on the hydropower systems, on national and regional scale, including effects on floods and dam safety issues. F. Analysis of climatic variability and climatic trends of hydrological records, including annual, seasonal and extreme values. (au) 171 refs

Chinese and Russian Policies on Climate Change: Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

crop productivity in China by 2030 as a result of climate change, and a decline of up to 37 percent in rice, maize , and wheat yields after 2050...against global warming. Comparing and contrasting China’s and Russia’s climate change policies and programs may also help to identify gaps in...adequate measures to adapt agriculture to climate change, the annual economic loss from a decrease in climate-determined crop yield in Russia is

Climate Change and Variability: Implications for Household Food ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

These are drought, low annual rainfall, high temperature, and water shortage. The econometric model estimation result revealed the important factors determining household food security. These are household perception of climate change, use of soil and water conservation practices, use of livestock feed management ...

Climatic change due to land surface alterations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

1992-01-01

A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

SOILS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yury Chendev

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A number of examples for the reaction of chernozems in the center of the East European Plain and their relation to different periodical climatic changes are examined. According to unequal-age chernozems properties, the transition from the Middle Holocene arid conditions to the Late Holocene wet conditions occurred at 4000 yr BP. Using data on changes of soil properties, the position of boundary between steppe and forest-steppe and the annual amount of precipitation at approximately 4000 yr BP were reconstructed. The change from warm-dry to cool-moist climatic phases, which occurred at the end of the XX century as a reflection of intra-age-long climatic cyclic recurrence, led to the strengthening of dehumification over the profile of automorphic chernozems and to the reduction of its content in the upper meter of the soils. The leaching of carbonates and of readily soluble salts contributed to the decrease in soil areas occupied by typical and solonetzic chernozems, and to the increase in areas occupied by leached chernozems.

Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Revich

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax.

Homogenised Australian climate datasets used for climate change monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trewin, Blair; Jones, David; Collins; Dean; Jovanovic, Branislava; Braganza, Karl

2007-01-01

Full text: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has developed a number of datasets for use in climate change monitoring. These datasets typically cover 50-200 stations distributed as evenly as possible over the Australian continent, and have been subject to detailed quality control and homogenisation.The time period over which data are available for each element is largely determined by the availability of data in digital form. Whilst nearly all Australian monthly and daily precipitation data have been digitised, a significant quantity of pre-1957 data (for temperature and evaporation) or pre-1987 data (for some other elements) remains to be digitised, and is not currently available for use in the climate change monitoring datasets. In the case of temperature and evaporation, the start date of the datasets is also determined by major changes in instruments or observing practices for which no adjustment is feasible at the present time. The datasets currently available cover: Monthly and daily precipitation (most stations commence 1915 or earlier, with many extending back to the late 19th century, and a few to the mid-19th century); Annual temperature (commences 1910); Daily temperature (commences 1910, with limited station coverage pre-1957); Twice-daily dewpoint/relative humidity (commences 1957); Monthly pan evaporation (commences 1970); Cloud amount (commences 1957) (Jovanovic etal. 2007). As well as the station-based datasets listed above, an additional dataset being developed for use in climate change monitoring (and other applications) covers tropical cyclones in the Australian region. This is described in more detail in Trewin (2007). The datasets already developed are used in analyses of observed climate change, which are available through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website (http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/). They are also used as a basis for routine climate monitoring, and in the datasets used for the development of seasonal

The Framing of Climate-Change Discourse by Shell and the Framing of Shell’s Climate Change-Related Activities by The Economist and The Financial Times

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleksandr Kapranov

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This article presents a qualitative study of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group’s (further - Shell corporate image building in relation to climate change and how this image is represented in the British financial press. The material of the study involves the official 2014 Shell’s annual report (further - AR and online coverages of Shell’s climate change-related activities by the leading British financial newspapers, The Economist and The Financial Times (further – The FT. Shell’s image of climate change is investigated by means of identification of conceptual metaphors viewed through the lenses of the methodological apparatus of cognitive linguistics. Conceptual metaphors identified in the 2014 AR are subsequently juxtaposed with conceptual metaphors associated with Shell’s climate-change activities in The Economist and in The FT. The results reveal that Shell’s 2014 AR involves the following conceptual metaphors associated with climate change: ‘Climate Change as a Journey’, ‘Climate Change as a Battle’, ‘Shell as a Responsible Citizen’, ‘Shell as a Caring Corporation’, ‘Climate Change as Growth’, and ‘Climate Change as Money’. In contrast with these conceptual metaphors, The Economist represents Shell’s climate change activities in 2014 via ‘Shell as an Immoral Corporation’ and ‘Shell as a Sinner’. The FT frames Shell’s climate change agenda in 2014 by means of conceptual metaphors ‘Climate Change as Growth’, ‘Climate Change as a Journey’, and ‘Climate Change as Money’ respectively. The discrepancies between Shell’s self-image of climate change and its representations by The Economist and The FT are further presented and discussed in the article.

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

2000-01-01

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate

The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachariadis, Theodoros; Hadjinicolaou, Panos

2014-01-01

This paper assesses additional electricity requirements and the associated costs in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus by the mid-21st century because of projected anthropogenic climate change, following an interdisciplinary approach that combines climate science with economics. An econometric model of electricity demand is used, in conjunction with climate projections from a state-of-the-art Global Circulation Model with a regional focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Annual electricity demand is projected to rise by about 6% compared to a ‘no climate change’ case. Although these additional power requirements are not very remarkable on an annual basis, total costs up to 2050, which may exceed 730 million Euros at today's prices, imply that the country may need to forgo one or two years of economic growth in order to cope with extra electricity needs due to climate change. This outlook indicates that a reasonable future energy path in regions with Mediterranean climate would involve substantial deployment of solar-powered electricity generation, which can meet peak load requirements while reducing the country's energy dependence. Moreover, this forecast highlights the need for adaptation to climate change through investments in the improvement of the energy performance of the building stock. - Highlights: • Assessment of additional electricity needs in Cyprus because of climate change. • Use of econometric model of electricity demand and regional climate projections. • Annual electricity demand to rise by 6% by 2050 due to climate change. • Welfare losses of up to more than 150 million Euros (at 2010 prices) per year. • Impacts can be tackled by use of solar power and energy efficiency improvements

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health

OpenAIRE

Orru, H.; Ebi, K. L.; Forsberg, B.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review: Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-relat...

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Study of climate change related to deforestation in the Xishuangbanna area, Yunnan, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chungcheng Li; Cong Lai

1991-01-01

The analysis of the results of deforestation and the meteorological data of the Xinshuangbanna region of China shows that there are possible relations between the deforestation and climate change. With the forest area decreased by 33% during the past 30 years, the climate of this region has also been changed. The annual mean temperature has been increased by 0.7C, of which the increase is 0.97C in the dry season and 0.53C in the wet season. Together with the annual temperature increase the temperature variations have also been increased, which has resulted in more frequent low temperature damage to the local plantation agriculture. The relative humidity decreased by 3% annually; and the annual precipitation also decreased, with a decrease in the wet season of 6.8% and an increase in the dry season of 20.8%

Federal climate change programs : funding history and policy issues

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

In recent years, the federal government has allocated several billion dollars annually for projects to expand the understanding of climate change or to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Most of that spending is done by t...

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

2006-01-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km 2 portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO 2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T a ), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 o C for T a and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

Combined Impacts of Medium Term Socio-Economic Changes and Climate Change on Water Resources in a Managed Mediterranean Catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastassi Stefanova

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Climate projections agree on a dryer and warmer future for the Mediterranean. Consequently, the region is likely to face serious problems regarding water availability and quality in the future. We investigated potential climate change impacts, alone (for three scenario periods and in combination with four socio-economic scenarios (for the near future on water resources in a Mediterranean catchment, whose economy relies on irrigated agriculture and tourism. For that, the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM was applied to the drainage area of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, using a set of 15 climate scenarios and different land use maps and management settings. We assessed the long-term average seasonal and annual changes in generated runoff, groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration in the catchment, as well as on water inflow and nutrients input to the lagoon. The projected average annual changes in precipitation are small for the first scenario period, and so are the simulated impacts on all investigated components, on average. The negative trend of potential climate change impacts on water resources (i.e., decrease in all analyzed components becomes pronounced in the second and third scenario periods. The applied socio-economic scenarios intensify, reduce or even reverse the climate-induced impacts, depending on the assumed land use and management changes.

Functional consequences of climate change-induced plant species loss in a tallgrass prairie.

Science.gov (United States)

Craine, Joseph M; Nippert, Jesse B; Towne, E Gene; Tucker, Sally; Kembel, Steven W; Skibbe, Adam; McLauchlan, Kendra K

2011-04-01

Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamon, L.; Dalla Valle, M.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management. - Climate change implications on POPs are addressed here with special attention to monitoring, modelling and regulation issues.

Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.

2017-12-01

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China

OpenAIRE

Holst, Rainer; Yu, Xiaohua; Grun, Carola

2010-01-01

This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South ...

Fish Farmers' Perception of Climate change impact on fish ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

*Department of Agricultural Extension and Management ... Respondents in the area perceived climate change factors ... rural farmers who implement their regular annual farm business plans risk total ... 2010). Constraints to increased fish production in Nigeria include, among others, ..... Build ponds close to water sources.

Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drost, Frank; Karoly, David [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Braganza, Karl [National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

2012-08-15

Previous studies have shown that there are several indices of global-scale temperature variations, in addition to global-mean surface air temperature, that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change. Appropriately defined, such indices have the ability to capture spatio-temporal information in a similar manner to optimal fingerprints of climate change. These indices include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient, the temperature contrast between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They contain information independent of the global-mean temperature for internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common responses to anthropogenic climate change. In addition, the ratio of average temperature changes over land to those over the oceans should be nearly constant for transient climate change. Hence, supplementing analysis of global-mean surface temperature with analyses of these indices can strengthen results of attribution studies of causes of observed climate variations. In this study, we extend the previous work by including the last 10 years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. We show that observed changes in these indices over the last 10 years provide increased evidence of an anthropogenic influence on climate. We also show the usefulness of these indices for evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating large-scale variability of surface temperature. (orig.)

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Water in Urban Areas in a Climate Change Perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

Climatic changes will influence the water cycle substantially. This will have an immediate impact on the performance of urban water infrastructure. A case study from Roskilde shows that assuming an increase in design intensities of 40 % over a 100 year horizon will lead to increased cost of indiv......Climatic changes will influence the water cycle substantially. This will have an immediate impact on the performance of urban water infrastructure. A case study from Roskilde shows that assuming an increase in design intensities of 40 % over a 100 year horizon will lead to increased cost...... of individual very extreme events (e.g. more than 100 years) of approximately 70 % and a 900 % increase in the expected annual losses due to floods. Other case studies in Denmark show smaller impacts, but still very significant increased annual costs compared to the present state. This calls for systematic...

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Climate change characteristics of Amur River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lan-lan YU

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995 and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010 of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pryse-Phillips, Amy; Snelgrove, Ken

2010-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow in a sub-basin of the lower Churchill River

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pryse-Phillips, Amy [Hatch Ltd., St John' s, (Canada); Snelgrove, Ken [Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John' s, (Canada)

2010-07-01

Climate change is likely to affect extreme flows as well as average flows. This is an important consideration for hydroelectric power producers. This paper presented the development of an approach to assess the impact of climate changes on seasonal and average annual river flows. The main goal was to investigate how climate change will affect the hydroelectric potential of the Lower Churchill Project using different combinations of emissions scenarios, climate model output and downscaling techniques. The setup and calibration of the numerical hydrological model, WATFLOOD, were performed as preliminary work for the Pinus River basin selected as study basin. Downscaled climate data from the North America change assessment program for both current and future climate periods were analysed. The calibrated model was used to simulate the current and future period streamflow scenarios. The results showed a 13 percent increase in mean annual flows concentrated in the winter and spring seasons.

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Khachatryan, S.

2009-05-01

Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

2011-01-01

This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Annual Primary Production

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Watson; Conkright, Margarita E.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Ginoux, Paul; Casey, Nancy W.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) has produced the first multi-year time series of global ocean chlorophyll observations since the demise of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1986. Global observations from 1997-present from SeaWiFS combined with observations from 1979-1986 from the CZCS should in principle provide an opportunity to observe decadal changes in global ocean annual primary production, since chlorophyll is the primary driver for estimates of primary production. However, incompatibilities between algorithms have so far precluded quantitative analysis. We have developed and applied compatible processing methods for the CZCS, using modern advances in atmospheric correction and consistent bio-optical algorithms to advance the CZCS archive to comparable quality with SeaWiFS. We applied blending methodologies, where in situ data observations are incorporated into the CZCS and SeaWiFS data records, to provide improvement of the residuals. These re-analyzed, blended data records provide maximum compatibility and permit, for the first time, a quantitative analysis of the changes in global ocean primary production in the early-to-mid 1980's and the present, using synoptic satellite observations. An intercomparison of the global and regional primary production from these blended satellite observations is important to understand global climate change and the effects on ocean biota. Photosynthesis by chlorophyll-containing phytoplankton is responsible for biotic uptake of carbon in the oceans and potentially ultimately from the atmosphere. Global ocean annual primary decreased from the CZCS record to SeaWiFS, by nearly 6% from the early 1980s to the present. Annual primary production in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, primary production in the low latitudes generally increased, with the exception of the tropical Pacific. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence

Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

2015-12-01

Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

Science.gov (United States)

Rurinda, Jairos; van Wijk, Mark T; Mapfumo, Paul; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E

2015-12-01

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

2000-11-15

Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

Vegetation dynamic characteristics and its responses to climate change in Jinghe River watershed of Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, F.; Liu, W.; Zhou, H.; Ning, T.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The Jinghe River is a second-order tributary of the Yellow River, and located in the middle-south part of the Loess Plateau. The watershed area is 45421km², with the mean annual precipitation (P) being about 508mm and aridity index 2.09. For a long time, soil and water loss in this watershed is severe, resulting in very fragile ecological environment. The GIMMS-normalized vegetation index NDVI is used to reflect condition of vegetation cover, and P and Penman potential evapotranspiration (ET) to represent climate water and heat conditions. The annual actual ET is estimated as the difference between P and runoff (ignoring the change of watershed water storage during each hydrological year, May to April of the following year). These concepts were introduced to discuss the dynamic characteristics of vegetation cover and its response to climate change. Results showed that the mean annual NDVI value was 0.51, showing a stable increasing trend from 2000 with an annual increasing rate of 8.7×10¯³. This result is consistent with the implementation of the project that converts farmland to forests and grassland and has achieved remarkable success in the Loess Plateau since 1999. It also indicates that the positive impact of human activity has been strengthened under the background of climate change. From 1982 to 2012, the annual actual ET was 464mm, accounting for 93.6% of annual P over the same period. The NDVI value of main growing season (5-9 months) is significantly correlated with annual P and annual humid index (ratio of annual P to annual potential ET). Vegetation water consumption is the main part of land surface ET, and the relationship between annual actual ET and NDVI value over the same period is also significant. The NDVI value, P and potential ET variation varied substantially within the Jinghe River watershed, and their relationships in different regions at an inter-annual scale are different. Currently, we are investigating the influence of the changes in

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sinkyu [Department of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Kangwon-do 200-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W. [Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 (United States)

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km{sup 2} portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T{sub a}), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 {sup o}C for T{sub a} and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)

2009-10-15

Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

2015-12-01

Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

Quantifying the effects of climate and post-fire landscape change on hydrologic processes

Science.gov (United States)

Steimke, A.; Han, B.; Brandt, J.; Som Castellano, R.; Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Seasonally snow-dominated, forested mountain watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as the climate warms. Changes in vegetation also affect the runoff response of watersheds. The largest driver of vegetation change in many mountainous regions is wildfire, whose occurrence is affected by both climate and land management decisions. Here, we quantify how direct (i.e. changes in precipitation and temperature) and indirect (i.e. changing fire regimes) effects of climate change influence hydrologic parameters such as dates of peak streamflow, annual discharge, and snowpack levels. We used the Boise River Basin, ID as a model laboratory to calculate the relative magnitude of change stemming from direct and indirect effects of climate change. This basin is relevant to study as it is well-instrumented and major drainages have experienced burning at different spatial and temporal intervals, aiding in model calibration. We built a hydrology-based integrated model of the region using a multiagent simulation framework, Envision. We used a modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model and calibrated it to historic streamflow and snowpack observations. We combined a diverse set of climate projections with wildfire scenarios (low vs. high) representing two distinct intervals in the regional historic fire record. In fire simulations, we altered land cover coefficients to reflect a burned state post-fire, which decreased overall evapotranspiration rates and increased water yields. However, direct climate effects had a larger signal on annual variations of hydrologic parameters. By comparing and analyzing scenario outputs, we identified links and sensitivities between land cover and regional hydrology in the context of a changing climate, with potential implications for local land and water managers. In future

Using temporal coherence to determine the response to climate change in Boreal Shield lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Arnott, Shelley E; Keller, Bill; Dillon, Peter J; Yan, Norman; Paterson, Michael; Findlay, David

2003-01-01

Climate change is expected to have important impacts on aquatic ecosystems. On the Boreal Shield, mean annual air temperatures are expected to increase 2 to 4 degrees C over the next 50 years. An important challenge is to predict how changes in climate and climate variability will impact natural systems so that sustainable management policies can be implemented. To predict responses to complex ecosystem changes associated with climate change, we used long-term biotic databases to evaluate how important elements of the biota in Boreal Shield lakes have responded to past fluctuations in climate. Our long-term records span a two decade period where there have been unusually cold years and unusually warm years. We used coherence analyses to test for regionally operating controls on climate, water temperature, pH, and plankton richness and abundance in three regions across Ontario: the Experimental Lakes Area, Sudbury, and Dorset. Inter-annual variation in air temperature was similar among regions, but there was a weak relationship among regions for precipitation. While air temperature was closely related to lake surface temperatures in each of the regions, there were weak relationships between lake surface temperature and richness or abundance of the plankton. However, inter-annual changes in lake chemistry (i.e., pH) were correlated with some biotic variables. In some lakes in Sudbury and Dorset, pH was dependent on extreme events. For example, El Nino related droughts resulted in acidification pulses in some lakes that influenced phytoplankton and zooplankton richness. These results suggest that there can be strong heterogeneity in lake ecosystem responses within and across regions.

Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in Coupled Climate-Vegetation Regional Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavio Justino

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Previous work suggests that changes in seasonality could lead to a 70% reduction in the extent of the Amazon rainforest. The primary cause of the dieback of the rainforest is a lengthening of the dry season due to a weakening of the large-scale tropical circulation. Here we examine these changes in the seasonal cycle. Under present day conditions the Amazon climate is characterized by a zonal separation of the dominance of the annual and semi-annual seasonal cycles. This behavior is strongly modified under greenhouse warming conditions, with the annual cycle becoming dominant throughout the Amazon basin, increasing differences between the dry and wet seasons. In particular, there are substantial changes in the annual cycle of temperature due to the increase in the temperature of the warmest month, but the lengthening of the dry season is believed to be particularly important for vegetation-climate feedbacks. Harmonic analysis performed to regional climate model simulations yields results that differ from the global climate model that it is forced from, with the regional model being more sensitive to changes in the seasonal cycle.

Understanding climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

2007-01-01

Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gao Xiaosheng

2009-01-01

@@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brekke, L.

2008-01-01

This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

Distribution of climatic changes during global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vinnikov, K Ya; Kovyneva, N P

1983-05-01

Empirical evaluations of the influence of small (scale +/- 0.5/sup 0/C) changes in mean annual air surface temperature in the northern hemisphere on the fields of the mean values of the principal meteorological elements (temperature, pressure, precipitation) are discussed. The archives of climatic data for the last 100 years were subjected to statistical processing. The method is described in detail. 14 references, 5 figures.

Farmers´ perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette

2009-01-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver...... of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind...

Climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollution ...

Science.gov (United States)

This is an abstract for a presentations at the Annual Conference of the International Society on Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology. This presentation will serve as an introduction to the symposium. As we consider the potential health impacts of a warming planet, the relationships between climate change and air pollutants become increasingly important to understand. These relationships are complex and highly variable, causing a variety of environmental impacts at local, regional and global scales. Human exposures and health impacts for air pollutants have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures to these pollutants. Research on this topic will provide both state and local governments with the tools and scientific knowledge base to undertake any necessary adaptation of the air pollution regulations and/or public health management systems in the face of climate change.

Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yanhong; Li, Xia; Xu, Jianwei; Ruby Leung, L.; Chen, Deliang

2015-01-01

Desertification in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has drawn increasing attention in the recent decades. It has been postulated as a consequence of increasing climate aridity due to the observed warming. This study quantifies the aridity changes in the TP and attributes the changes to different climatic factors. Using the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) as an aridity index, we used observed meteorological records at 83 stations in the TP to calculate PET using the Penman–Monteith algorithm and the ratio. Spatial and temporal changes of P/PET in 1979–2011 were analyzed. Results show that stations located in the arid and semi-arid northwestern TP are becoming significantly wetter, and half of the stations in the semi-humid eastern TP are becoming drier, though not significantly, in the recent three decades. The aridity change patterns are significantly correlated with the change patterns of precipitation, sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range. Temporal correlations between the annual P/PET ratio and other meteorological variables confirm the significant correlation between aridity and the three variables, with precipitation being the dominant driver of P/PET changes at the interannual time scale. Annual PET are insignificantly but negatively correlated with P/PET in the cold season. In the warm season, however, the correlation between PET and P/PET is significant at the confidence level of 99.9% when the cryosphere near the surface melts. Significant correlation between annual wind speed and aridity occurs in limited locations and months. Consistency in the climatology pattern and linear trends in surface air temperature and precipitation calculated using station data, gridded data, and nearest grid-to-stations for the TP average and across sub-basins indicate the robustness of the trends despite the large spatial heterogeneity in the TP that challenge climate monitoring. (letter)

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. E. Banihabib

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirwan, Matthew L; Mudd, Simon M

2012-09-27

About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.

Spatiotemporal Exploration of Impacts of Coupled Climate and Socioeconomic Changes on Grassland Ecosystems (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Y.

2013-12-01

Although the coupled impacts of climate change and human adaptation on land cover change has been a prime research topic in recent years, a majority of reported efforts are examining the coupled effects of climate and socioeconomic factors qualitatively. Even though some are applying statistical methods, they often look into the impacts of coupled climate variations and socioeconomic transformations on land cover changes in a detached or sequential manner, or they handle socioeconomic influences indirectly through land use changes. Very few of them deal with the coupled effects concurrently through times and cross regions. We assimilate a big dataset of climate change, plant community growth condition, and socioeconomic transformation in Inner Mongolia of China. The study area consists of twelve types of plant communities, reflecting an east-to-west water-temperature gradient from moist meadow-type, to typical steppe-type and then to arid desert-type communities. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI), derived from MODIS at a 250 m resolution and 16-day intervals from May 8 to September 28 during 2000-2010, is adopted as a proxy for vegetation growth. The inter-annual and intra-annual changes of seven climate factors (barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunlight hours, temperature, vapor pressure and wind speed) during the same period are synchronized with the EVI observations. Ten socioeconomic variables (urban population, urban GDP, rural GDP, grain output, livestock, fixed assets investment, local government revenue, per capita net income of farmers and pastoralists, the total length of highways, and rural population) are collected over 34 counties in the study area and during the same period. The GIS-based spatial database approach is adopted to integrate all of the above data into a big spatiotemporal dataset. We develop a multi-controlled panel-data regression model to investigate spatiotemporal changes of vegetation growth and their underlying causes

Climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1990-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

Science.gov (United States)

Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

2015-04-01

Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

Climate Change Sensitivity of Multi-Species Afforestation in Semi-Arid Benin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florent Noulèkoun

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field experiments and modelling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of two promising afforestation species, Jatropha curcas L. and Moringa oleifera Lam., by analyzing their predicted climate–growth relationships in the initial two years after planting on degraded cropland in the semi-arid zone of Benin. The process-based WaNuLCAS model (version 4.3, World Agroforestry Centre, Bogor, Indonesia was used to simulate aboveground biomass growth for each year in the climate record (1981–2016, either as the first or as the second year of tree growth. Linear mixed models related the annual biomass growth to climate indicators, and climate sensitivity indices quantified climate–growth relationships. In the first year, the length of dry spells had the strongest effect on tree growth. In the following year, the annual water deficit and length of dry season became the strongest predictors. Simulated rooting depths greater than those observed in the experiments enhanced biomass growth under extreme dry conditions and reduced sapling sensitivity to drought. Projected increases in aridity implied significant growth reduction, but a multi-species approach to afforestation using species that are able to develop deep-penetrating roots should increase the resilience of young forests to climate change. The results illustrate that process-based modelling, combined with field experiments, can be effective in assessing the climate–growth relationships of tree species.

The effect of climate change on electricity expenditures in Massachusetts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Véliz, Karina D.; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Cleveland, Cutler J.; Stoner, Anne M.K.

2017-01-01

Climate change affects consumer expenditures by altering the consumption of and price for electricity. Previous analyses focus solely on the former, which implicitly assumes that climate-induced changes in consumption do not affect price. But this assumption is untenable because a shift in demand alters quantity and price at equilibrium. Here we present the first empirical estimates for the effect of climate change on electricity prices. Translated through the merit order dispatch of existing capacity for generating electricity, climate-induced changes in daily and monthly patterns of electricity consumption cause non-linear changes in electricity prices. A 2 °C increase in global mean temperature increases the prices for and consumption of electricity in Massachusetts USA, such that the average household’s annual expenditures on electricity increase by about 12%. Commercial customers incur a 9% increase. These increases are caused largely by higher prices for electricity, whose impacts on expenditures are 1.3 and 3.6 fold larger than changes in residential and commercial consumption, respectively. This suggests that previous empirical studies understate the effects of climate change on electricity expenditures and that policy may be needed to ensure that the market generates investments in peaking capacity to satisfy climate-driven changes in summer-time consumption. - Highlights: • Climate change increases summer peak of load curve in US state of Massachusetts. • Climate change increases electricity prices more than consumption. • Previous studies understate the effect of climate change on electricity expenditures. • Adaptation that reduces electricity demand may reduce the price effect. • Adaptation may raise prices by increasing capacity but lowering utilization rate.

Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

2009-07-01

The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

Climate for Change?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wejs, Anja

Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-04-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1991-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jie Xue; JiaQiang Lei; DongWei Gui; JianPing Zhao; DongLei Mao; Jie Zhou

2016-01-01

The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958–2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and iden-tified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can im-prove the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

The impact of climate changes on rivers discharge in Eastern Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Minea, Ionus

2015-05-01

Climate changes imply many changes in different socioeconomic and environmental fields. Among the most important impacts are changes in water resources. Long- and mid-term river discharge flow analysis is essential for the effective management of water resources. In this work, the changes in temperature, precipitation, and river discharges as well as the connections between precipitation and river discharges were investigated. Seasonal and annual climatic and hydrological data collected at 6 weather stations and 17 hydrological stations were employed. The data sets cover 57 years (1950-2006). The modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to calculate trends and their slopes, whereas the Bravais-Pearson correlation index was chosen to detect the connections between precipitation and river discharge data series. The main findings are as follows: a general increase was identified in all the three variables; the air temperature data series showed the highest frequency of statistically significant slopes, mainly in annual and spring series; all data series, except the series for winter, showed an increase in precipitation, and in winter, a significant decrease in precipitation was observed at most of the stations. The increase in precipitation is reflected in the upward trends of the river discharge flows, as verified by the good Bravais-Pearson correlations, mainly for annual, summer, and autumn series.

Climate change impacts on the temperature of recharge water in a temporate climate

Science.gov (United States)

Murdock, E. A.

2015-12-01

Groundwater outflows into headwater streams play an important role in controlling local stream temperature and maintaining habitat for cool and cold water fisheries. Because of the ecological and economic importance of these fisheries, there is significant concern about the impacts of climate change on these habitats. Many studies of stream temperature changes under climate change assume that groundwater outflows will vary with long-term mean air temperature, perhaps with a temporal lag to account for the relatively slow rate of heat diffusion through soils. This assumption, however, ignores the fact that climate change will also impact the temporal patterns of recharge in some regions. In Southern Wisconsin, much of the annual recharge comes from the spring snowmelt event, as a large amount of meltwater is released onto saturated soils with little to no active transpiration. Using the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model populated with climate date from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), we show that the temperature of water passing below the rooting zone in a simulated corn planting in Southern Wisconsin will change significantly less than the air temperature by midcentury. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the variability of heat flow mechanisms in the subsurface while assessing climate change impacts on surface water resources. In landscapes such as Wisconsin's driftless area, where deep aquifers feed numerous localized headwater streams, meltwater-driven recharge may provide a buffer against rising air temperatures for some time into the future. Fully understanding this dynamic will allow for targeted conservation efforts in those streams that are likely to show higher than average resilience to rising temperatures, but which remain vulnerable to development, stormwater runoff, agricultural pollution and other ecological threats. In a world with dwindling coldwater resources, identifying and

Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

KAUST Repository

Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Chura, O.; Trujillo, F.; Aguilar, Enric; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Ló pez-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Morá n-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesú s; Ycaza, P.; Friend, F.

2015-01-01

This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control

Climate change impact on operation of dams and hydroelectricity generation in the Northeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ehsani, N.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Fekete, B. M.

2016-12-01

We are using a large-scale, high-resolution, fully integrated hydrological/reservoir/hydroelectricity model to investigate the impact of climate change on the operation of 11037 dams and generation of electricity from 375 hydroelectric power plants in the Northeastern United States. Moreover, we estimate the hydropower potential of the region by energizing the existing non-powered dams and then studying the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential. We show that climate change increases the impact of dams on the hydrology of the region. Warmer temperatures produce shorter frozen periods, earlier snowmelt and elevated evapotranspiration rates, which when combined with changes in precipitation, are projected to increase water availability in winter but reduce it during summer. As a result, the water that is stored by dams will be more than ever a necessary part of the routine water systems operations to compensate for these seasonal imbalances. The function of dams as emergency water storage for creating drought resiliency will mostly diminish in the future. Building more dams to cope with the local impacts of climate change on water resources and to offset the increased drought vulnerability may thus be inevitable. Annual hydroelectricity generation in the region is 41 Twh. Our estimate of the annual hydropower potential of non-powered dams adds up to 350 Twh. Climate change may reduce hydropower potential from non-powered dams by up to 13% and reduce current hydroelectricity generation by up to 8% annually. Hydroelectricity generation and hydropower potential may increase in winter months and decline in months of summer and fall. These changes call for recalibration of dam operations and may raise conflict of interests in multipurpose dams.

Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

M.Torre Jorgenson; Vladimir Romanovsky; Jennifer Harden; Yuri Shur; Jonathan O' Donnell; Edward A.G. Schuur; Mikhail Kanevskiy; Sergei. Marchenko

2010-01-01

The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 °C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20°C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying...

Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Patz, J A; Olson, S H

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

2008-04-27

The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R. [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2008-07-01

Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are then used to simulate the effects of climatic change at regional and local scales. Outputs from the models are then used to develop water management models for hydroelectric power production. Observed linear trends in annual precipitation during the twentieth century were provided. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages of various modelling techniques were reviewed. Risk assessment strategies for Hydro-Quebec were also outlined and results of the study will be used to guide research programs for the hydroelectric power industry. refs., tabs., figs.

The impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musy, A.; Music, B.; Roy, R.

2008-01-01

Hydroelectricity is a clean and renewable energy source for many countries, and is expected to play an important role in future energy supplies. However, the impact of climatic change on hydroelectricity resources is not yet understood. This study provided a critical review of current methods used to determine the potential impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power production. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to predict future climate conditions under various greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Statistical techniques are then used to down-scale GCM outputs to the appropriate scales needed for hydrological models, which are then used to simulate the effects of climatic change at regional and local scales. Outputs from the models are then used to develop water management models for hydroelectric power production. Observed linear trends in annual precipitation during the twentieth century were provided. The theoretical advantages and disadvantages of various modelling techniques were reviewed. Risk assessment strategies for Hydro-Quebec were also outlined and results of the study will be used to guide research programs for the hydroelectric power industry. refs., tabs., figs

American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Mazurczyk

Full Text Available Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90% when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario. Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%. More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts. Keywords: Archives, Climate change, Sea level rise, Storm surge, Cultural

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Cui, Huijuan

2016-01-01

Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

Comparative study on change in groundwaters of rural and urban areas in Korea: effects of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, Sang Woong; Seul Kim, Ye; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Ho Chul; Shin, Min Cheol; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong

2013-04-01

Groundwater occupies a considerable proportion of the world's water resources and is affected by climate change. It is important to understand how water budget responds to future precipitation variability for sustainable management of groundwater resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in the future, it is necessary to not only collect field data but also predict groundwater change using some groundwater numerical modelling. In this study, a relevant climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) was adopted and Visual MODFLOW was used as a main tool for predicting water budget. The predicted precipitation and air temperature data were obtained from Climate Change Information Center (CCIC) of Korea. By using the data on the scenario from 2011 to 2100, the future water budget was calculated using groundwater numerical modelling for both Wonju (WJ: urban area) and Yanggu (YG: rural area) of Gangwon Province in Korea. The model calibration was done by the groundwater level measured at 10 monitoring wells. For the numerical prediction, the groundwater recharge (WJ: 10.1%, YG: 13.3%) was estimated using watertable fluctuation (WTF) method and a concept of threshold precipitation (WJ: 240.5 mm, YG: 363.8 mm) was applied. Consequently, the water levels in both Wonju and Yanggu showed gradually increasing trends and ranged from 3.0 to 10.8 m, from 0.5 to 1.8 m in 2100, respectively. Under annual precipitation fluctuation on the scenario (2011-2100), water budget IN-OUT value (-0.87~1.07 m3/day) in Wonju city gradually increases while that (-0.73~0.46 m3/day) of Yanggu county does not. However, its annual difference is enlarged with year for both areas. The results indicate that securing groundwater resource and its management will be difficult because of frequent annual change of the groundwater storage. This work was supported by Science High School R&E program (No. C1008804-01-01) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant

Quantifying impacts of historical climate change in American River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Sultana, R.

2017-12-01

There is a near consensus among scientists that climate has been changing for the last few decades in different parts of the world. Some regions are already experiencing the impacts of these changes. Warmer climate can alter the hydrology and water resources around the globe. Historical data shows the temperature has been rising in California and affecting California's water resource by reducing snowfall and snowmelt runoff during spring season. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the historical climate in American River basin, a mountainous watershed in California. The results show that warmer climate in the recent decades (1995-2014) have already have affected streamflow characteristics of the watershed. Compared to the 1965-1974, the mean annual streamflow has decreased more than 6% and the peak streamflow has shifted from May to April. Understanding the changes will assist the water resource managers with valuable insight on the effectiveness of mitigation strategies considered as of now.

[Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population].

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, Gustavo F; Zevallos, Alisson; Gonzales-Castañeda, Cynthia; Nuñez, Denisse; Gastañaga, Carmen; Cabezas, César; Naeher, Luke; Levy, Karen; Steenland, Kyle

2014-01-01

This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanlong Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs, few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach.

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Ali, Ghaffar

2018-09-01

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2°C between 1960 and 1987 and 4°C between 1988 and 2014, and R 2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09°C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R 2 were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of

Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

CERN Document Server

2012-01-01

This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakellari, Maria

2015-10-01

Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the peruvian population

OpenAIRE

Gonzales, Gustavo F.; Instituto de Investigaciones de la Altura. Lima, Perú. Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú. Academia Nacional de Ciencias. Lima, Perú. Doctor en Ciencias y doctor en Medicina; Zevallos, Alisson; Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú. estudiante de Biología; Gonzales-Castañeda, Cynthia; Instituto de Investigaciones de la Altura. Lima, Perú. Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú. Philosophal Doctor; Nuñez, Denisse; Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofía, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú. estudiante de Biología; Gastañaga, Carmen; Instituto Nacional de Salud. Lima, Perú. médico cirujano; Cabezas, César; Instituto Nacional de Salud. Lima, Perú. médico infectólogo; Naeher, Luke; University of Georgia. Georgia, EE. UU. Philosophal Doctor; Levy, Karen; University of Emory. Georgia. EE. UU. Philosophal Doctor; Steenlan, Kyle; University of Emory. Georgia. EE. UU. Philosophal Doctor

2014-01-01

This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adult...

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Assessment of climate change impacts on runoff in China using climate elasticity and multiple CMIP5 GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, C.; Hu, B. X.; Wang, P.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal and is expected to alter the temporal-spatial patterns of regional water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results indicate a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. Climate projections suggest that there is large uncertainty involved among the GCM simulations, but most project a consistent change in P (or PET) over China at the mean annual scale. During the future period of 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China particularly the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in the whole China especially the southern regions due to future increases in temperature. Moreover, larger increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Compared with the baseline 1971-2000, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively.

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily S Hope

Full Text Available Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980-2009 fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI, and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs; these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980-2009 period under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses.

Indications of climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-04-01

The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

Lake sediment records of Quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moy, C.

2012-01-01

Lake sediment records provide an excellent means to reconstruct past climate and environmental change because they typically provide long, high-resolution and continuous archives of environmental change. Lake sediment records typically exhibit high sedimentation rates (centennial to millennial scale variability is common and annual resolution is possible in some sites), contain sedimentary components well-suited for a multi-proxy approach, multiple dating methods can be applied, tend to exhibit a broad geographic distribution, and are relatively accessible. Furthermore, a number of geochemical techniques can be applied to reconstruct components of the climate system based on the stable isotope geochemistry of carbonate or organic phases preserved and exposed in lacustrine sediment cores. Various stable isotope methods can be applied to lacustrine systems and these are a valuable tool that can be used to monitor physical processes (e.g. evaporation), vegetation dynamics within the watershed (C 3 vs C 4 plant distributions), biologic processes (aquatic productivity), all of which can be driven by a regional climate forcing. (author). 31 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

The Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Change on Streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangwen Shao

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The Hailiutu River basin is a typical semi-arid wind sandy grass shoal watershed in northwest China. Climate and land use have changed significantly during the period 1970–2014. These changes are expected to impact hydrological processes in the basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK test and sequential t-test analysis of the regime shift method were used to detect the trend and shifts of the hydrometeorological time series. Based on the analyzed results, seven scenarios were developed by combining different land use and/or climate situations. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to analyze the impacts of climate variability and land use change on the values of the hydrological components. The China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS was applied to enhance the spatial expressiveness of precipitation data in the study area during the period 2008–2014. Rather than solely using observed precipitation or CMADS precipitation, the precipitation values of CMADS and the observed precipitation values were combined to drive the SWAT model for better simulation results. From the trend analysis, the annual streamflow and wind speed showed a significant downward trend. No significant trend was found for the annual precipitation series; however, the temperature series showed upward trends. With the change point analysis, the whole study period was divided into three sub-periods (1970–1985, 1986–2000, and 2001–2014. The annual precipitation, mean wind speed, and average temperature values were 316 mm, 2.62 m/s, and 7.9 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1970–1985, 272 mm, 2.58 m/s, and 8.4 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 1986–2000, and 391 mm, 2.2 m/s, and 9.35 °C, respectively, for the sub-period 2001–2014. The simulated mean annual streamflow was 35.09 mm/year during the period 1970–1985. Considering the impact of the climate variability, the simulated mean annual streamflow values were

Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

1993-07-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

The influence of climate change on meteorological drought characteristic in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pao-Shan Yu; Chun-Chao Kuo; Chi-Wen Sung

2004-01-01

Global climate change and its influence on water resource are the worldwide issues. This study aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on drought characteristic in western Taiwan. This analysis on local climate change, may provide the reference for climate change study on Asia region. Thirty-one rainfall stations with at least 80 years records over western Taiwan provide the data set to analysis trend and change in the long term rainfall series. As the area of Taiwan is too small, the GCM is not suitable for our investigation on climate change. Therefore, the statistical methods of Cumulative Deviations test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test were applied to detect the change points of annual rainfall depth and detect whether the long-term rainfall series exist variation and tendency in the historical records. The analytical results reveal that a significant change point occurs during about 1960s for annual rainfall series. Two samples in the long- tern rainfall series are further divided based on this change point. Yearly rainfall depth increases in northern Taiwan and decreases in middle and southern Taiwan. Average values and standard deviation of monthly rainfall depth in these two samples are compared. A stable reducing tendency of average rainfall in the wet seasons (May to October) is found in middle and southern Taiwan and increasing tendency in northern Taiwan. We further investigate whether drought characteristic is difference before and after 1960. Nine irrigation areas in Taiwan are divided based on its irrigation system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is estimated and compared with historical agriculture drought. It is found that 3-month SPI has better characteristic than 1-month SPI to respond the agriculture drought characteristic. Therefore, 3-month SPI for each irrigation area is estimated both before and after 1960. It is found that the frequency and duration of moderate dry (3-month SPI<-1.0) and severely dry

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study on the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Bellin, A.; Majone, B.; Bovolo, C. I.; Blenkinsop, S.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in projections from climate models limits the understanding of future hydrological impacts and complicates the assessment of mitigation policies. This work presents hydrological simulations of the Ebro River Basin (Spain), using both control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate scenarios, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the water availability of the basin. Using the SWAT model, hydrological simulations were carried out for four catchments with different climatological regimes. Sets of model parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, long-term calibration and uncertainty analysis procedures, which enabled the historical behaviour of the catchments to be reproduced. Following validation, the parameters were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflow. Bias-corrected daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), using the SRES A2 emissions scenario, were used as drivers of the hydrological simulations during the future scenarios. Important annual and seasonal differences in the projected future precipitation and temperature fields were observed among the RCMs. However, a general decrease in annual mean precipitation and an increase in annual mean temperature relative to the control period were observed, with the strongest differences during the summer season. When these changes were used to project future streamflows, a general decrease was observed at the outlet of the catchments. Changes in streamflows were in general agreement with the projections of daily precipitation and temperature fields, with a larger drop in predicted monthly streamflows for catchments with more semi-arid climatological regimes, and seasonal differences that are related to the elevation range of the catchments.

Changing heathlands in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ransijn, Johannes

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

Strategic Program for Biodiversity and Water Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation in Pakistan

Science.gov (United States)

Sher, Hassan; Aldosari, Ali

2014-05-01

Population pressure, climate change and resulting extreme weather scenarios, armed con?ict and economic pressure have put the situation of Pakistan's biodiversity at risk. Melting glaciers, deforestation, erosion, landslides and depletion of agricultural areas are aggravating the regulation of water ?ow in Pakistan. In Pakistan agro-biodiversity is central to human survival and play vital role in the economy of the country. It contributes 21% to the GDP, employs 45% of the labor force and contributes 71% of the export earnings. Agro- biodiversity in Pakistan is greatly affected by short term climate variability and could be harmed signi?cantly by long-term climate change. As the duration of crop growth cycle is related to temperature, an increase in temperature will speed up crop growth and shorten the duration between sowing and harvesting. This shortening could have an adverse effect on productivity of crops. The present assessment also revealed that hydrological cycle is also likely to be in?uenced by global warming. Since the agricultural crops are heavily dependent on the water, and water resources are inextricably linked with climate; therefore, the projected climate change has serious implications for water resources of the country. The freshwater resources, in Pakistan, are based on snow- and glacier-melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to climate change. The country speci?c current information strongly suggests that: decrease in glacier volume and snow cover leading to alterations in the seasonal ?ow pattern of Indus River System; increased annual ?ows for a few decades followed by decline in ?ows in subsequent years; increase in the formation and burst of glacial lakes; higher frequency and intensity of extreme climate events coupled with irregular monsoon rains causing frequent ?oods and droughts; and greater demand of water due to higher evapotranspiration rates at elevated temperatures. These trends will have large impact on the spatial

Climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

Impact of the climate change to shallow groundwater in Baltic artesian basin

Science.gov (United States)

Lauva, D.; Bethers, P.; Timuhins, A.; Sennikovs, J.

2012-04-01

The purpose of our work was to find the long term pattern of annual shallow ground water changes in region of Latvia, ground water level modelling for the contemporary climate and future climate scenarios and the model generalization to the Baltic artesian basin (BAB) region. Latvia is located in the middle part of BAB. It occupies about 65'000 square kilometers. BAB territory (480'000 square kilometres) also includes Lithuania, Estonia as well as parts of Poland, Russia, Belarus and the Baltic Sea. Territory of BAB is more than seven times bigger than Latvia. Precipitation and spring snow melt are the main sources of the ground water recharge in BAB territory. The long term pattern of annual shallow ground water changes was extracted from the data of 25 monitoring wells in the territory of Latvia. The main Latvian groundwater level fluctuation regime can be described as a function with two maximums (in spring and late autumn) and two minimums (in winter and late summer). The mathematical model METUL (developed by Latvian University of Agriculture) was chosen for the ground water modelling. It was calibrated on the observations in 25 gauging wells around Latvia. After the calibration we made calculations using data provided by an ensemble of regional climate models, yielding a continuous groundwater table time-series from 1961 to 2100, which were analysed and split into 3 time windows for further analysis: contemporary climate (1961-1990), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100). The daily average temperature, precipitation and humidity time series were used as METUL forcing parameters. The statistical downscaling method (Sennikovs and Bethers, 2009) was applied for the bias correction of RCM calculated and measured variables. The qualitative differences in future and contemporary annual groundwater regime are expected. The future Latvian annual groundwater cycle according to the RCM climate projection changes to curve with one peak and one drought point

Optimization of annual energy demand in office buildings under the influence of climate change in Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubio-Bellido, Carlos; Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis; Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A.

2016-01-01

Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized. - Highlights: • Forecast of 9 Chilean climate zones under Greenhouse Gases Scenario A2. • Influence of envelope and form on future energy demand in office buildings. • Multiple iterations on Form Ratio (FR) and Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR). • Optimization in early stages of design considering global warming.

Possible effects of climatic change on estimated crop yields in Canada: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, R.

1990-01-01

An overview is presented of research relating to the possible effects of climatic change on crop yields in Canada. Possible changes in the long-term climate resulting from a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide would have a major impact on agriculture in Canada. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies' general circulation model suggests that Canada will be significantly warmer and somewhat drier, with an annual temperature increase of more than 3 degree C and an annual precipitation increase of 11-13%. The increased annual precipitation will not compensate for the increased temperatures, and most agricultural regions will be somewhat drier. Current crop varieties and cropping systems will be unsuitable. Existing varieties will be eliminated or moved north into more suitable agricultural areas. Longer growing season varieties or alternative crops will be required for existing agricultural areas. Production opportunities for hard and soft winter wheat, corn, soybeans, horticulture and tender fruits could be enhanced. 21 refs

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2009-10-15

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

2009-01-01

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Climate change and water supply and demand in western Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawford, R.G.

1990-01-01

There is reason to be concerned that water resources on the Canadian Prairies could be at considerable risk due to climatic change. The Canadian Prairies frequently experience variations in the climate, which can reduce crop production by 25-50% and annual volumetric river flows by 70-90%. The potential impacts of climatic change on the Prairies are discussed. Consumptive water uses on the Prairies are dominated by irrigation and the water demands arising from thermal power generation. The overall effect of climatic change on water supplies will depend on the ways in which the various components of the hydrological cycle are affected. At the present time it is unsure whether complementary equations are more realistic in estimating evaporation than mass balance techniques. There is a need to obtain good baseline data which will allow the unequivocal resolution of the most accurate technique for estimating evaporation on the Prairies. Climate change could lead to a decrease in spring runoff, and would also lead to earlier snowmelt and peak flows. This could lead to a longer period of low flows during the summer and fall and a further drawdown of moisture reserves. Some appropriate strategies for adapting to climate change would be: encouraging water conservation; reductions in agricultural water use by developing/utilizing strains of plants with lower water demand; controlling new water developments; and enhancing on-farm retention. 10 refs

Climate variability and change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manton, M.

2006-01-01

When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

Science.gov (United States)

King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

2012-12-01

The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ESSENTIAL ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION. A VIEW FROM FOOD SECURITY IN CHILE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CARLOS MÉNDEZ NOTARI

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This research has the objective of analyzing whether the public policies that today define the rules for productive development in agriculture can mitigate the effects related to global warming and if these are sufficient to prevent the pressing of climate change over the difficulties already existing in the agricultural sector or, to prevent the emergence of new risk factors or threats that affect the country’s food security. It also seeks to propose some recommendations for the design of public policies to minimize the risks and threats related to the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change and, therefore, to ensure physical, social and economic access to sufficient food and nutritious foods that meet the needs of the national population and mitigate its effects on the multidimensional sphere of the security. In this sense, we try to answer the following question: What challenges does climate change pose to Chilean agriculture in terms of food security?

Changes in Vegetation Growth Dynamics and Relations with Climate over China’s Landmass from 1982 to 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guang Xu

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to projecting future ecosystem dynamics and the adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, we investigated vegetated growth dynamics (annual productivity, seasonality and the minimum amount of vegetated cover in China and their relations with climatic factors during 1982–2011, using the updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS third generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset and climate data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. Major findings are as follows: (1 annual mean NDVI over China significantly increased by about 0.0006 per year from 1982 to 2011; (2 of the vegetated area in China, over 33% experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth, mostly located in central and southern China; about 21% experienced a significant positive trend in growth seasonality, most of which occurred in northern China (>35°N; (3 changes in vegetation growth dynamics were significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation (p < 0.001 at a region scale; (4 at the country scale, changes in NDVI was significantly and positively correlated with annual air temperature (r = 0.52, p < 0.01 and not associated with annual precipitation (p > 0.1; (5 of the vegetated area, about 24% showed significant correlations between annual mean NDVI and air temperature (93% positive and remainder negative, and 12% showed significant correlations of annual mean NDVI with annual precipitation (65% positive and 35% negative. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth dynamics were controlled primarily by temperature and secondly by precipitation. Vegetation growth was also affected by human activities; and (6 monthly NDVI was significantly correlated with the

A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Science.gov (United States)

Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

2012-01-01

Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tina Schneider

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are "critical infrastructure." Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical infrastructure

Climate change, fire and the carbon balance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amiro, B.; Flannigan, M.

2004-01-01

On average, forest fires have burned 2 to 3 million hectares annually in Canada over the last twenty years. Over the last 40 years, this amounts to 20 per cent of the amount of carbon released through fossil fuel emissions in Canada. This paper analyses the extent to which climate change may contribute to a disturbance in the carbon balance due to increased fire activity. In addition, data from FLUXNET-Canada was examined, indicating that carbon fluxes from younger forests show dramatic changes in diurnal carbon flux patterns, caused by reduced photosynthetic uptake during the day and less root respiration at night. Increases in fire are expected throughout much of the boreal forest towards the end of this century, with a lengthening of the fire season and increases in severity and intensity. It was concluded that there is the possibility of a positive feedback, where climate change could cause more fires, resulting in a greater release of carbon and thereby increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence that smoke promoted positive lightning strikes while reducing precipitation was also presented. It was suggested that certain self-limiting factors may prevent a run-away scenario. Changes to human and lightning ignition patterns, for example, may have an impact. It was also suggested that research efforts should focus on refining climate change estimates that account for landscape change and other aspects that control fire in Canada. 9 refs., 2 figs

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Varela Minder, Elda

2018-04-19

IntroductionThe year 2017 was a year of review and renewal for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). The Southeast, Northwest, Alaska, Southwest, and North Central CSCs’ 5-year summary review reports were released in 2017 and contain the findings of the external review teams led by the Cornell University Human Dimensions Research Unit in conjunction with the American Fisheries Society. The reports for the Pacific Islands, South Central, and Northeast CSCs are planned for release in 2018. The reviews provide an opportunity to evaluate aspects of the cooperative agreement, such as the effectiveness of the CSC in meeting project goals and assessment of the level of scientific contribution and achievement. These reviews serve as a way for the CSCs and NCCWSC to look for ways to recognize and enhance our network’s strengths and identify areas for improvement. The reviews were followed by the CSC recompetition, which led to new hosting agreements at the Northwest, Alaska, and Southeast CSCs. Learn more about the excellent science and activities conducted by the network centers in the 2017 annual report.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

Science.gov (United States)

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

Climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

2009-01-01

Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

2007-01-01

of the hydrological response to the simulated climate change is highly dependant on the geological setting of the model area. In the Jylland area, characterized by sandy top soils and large interconnected aquifers, groundwater recharge increases significantly, resulting in higher groundwater levels and increasing......Regional impact studies of the effects of future climate change are necessary because projected changes in meteorological variables vary regionally and different hydrological systems can react in various ways to the same changes. In this study the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge...... simulates changes in groundwater head, recharge, and discharge. Precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration increase for both the A2 and B2 scenarios. This results in a significant increase in mean annual net precipitation, but with decreased values in the summer months. The magnitude...

Climate change science compendium 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

2009-09-15

In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forsius, J; Kuivalainen, P; Maekinen, P [Imatran Voima Oy, Helsinki (Finland). Environmental Protection Div.

1997-12-31

In the next few decades, the probable strengthening of the greenhouse effect may bring about considerable changes in energy production and consumption, which depend on climate. It is presumed that some of the changes will occur even if the rise in greenhouse gas concentration will be reduced. Because the investments in energy production have a long-term influence, decision-makers should have an idea about the impact of the strengthening of the greenhouse effect on energy production and consumption in Finland. According to the results of this study, the effects of climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. The consumption of heating electricity will decrease substantially. Because the non- climate-dependent sectors of electricity consumption (process industry and services) account for more than a half of the total consumption, the effect on the total consumption is, however, rather small. The total annual hydropower production in Finland was estimated to be 2 % more both in the year 2025 and 2100 than at present. The annual mean discharges do not change very much compared to the present. The greatest difference in comparison with the present is the noticeable smoothing of the annual discharge variation. Particularly in Northern Finland the smoothing is considerable in average circumstances. In the scenario for the year 2100, in particular, the spring flood peak is, on average, significantly reduced, the flood peak takes place earlier and the average winter discharges increase

Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forsius, J.; Kuivalainen, P.; Maekinen, P. [Imatran Voima Oy, Helsinki (Finland). Environmental Protection Div.

1996-12-31

In the next few decades, the probable strengthening of the greenhouse effect may bring about considerable changes in energy production and consumption, which depend on climate. It is presumed that some of the changes will occur even if the rise in greenhouse gas concentration will be reduced. Because the investments in energy production have a long-term influence, decision-makers should have an idea about the impact of the strengthening of the greenhouse effect on energy production and consumption in Finland. According to the results of this study, the effects of climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. The consumption of heating electricity will decrease substantially. Because the non- climate-dependent sectors of electricity consumption (process industry and services) account for more than a half of the total consumption, the effect on the total consumption is, however, rather small. The total annual hydropower production in Finland was estimated to be 2 % more both in the year 2025 and 2100 than at present. The annual mean discharges do not change very much compared to the present. The greatest difference in comparison with the present is the noticeable smoothing of the annual discharge variation. Particularly in Northern Finland the smoothing is considerable in average circumstances. In the scenario for the year 2100, in particular, the spring flood peak is, on average, significantly reduced, the flood peak takes place earlier and the average winter discharges increase

A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

2009-01-01

Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p analysis of covariance showed the fraction of precipitation discharged increased, while unsatisfied evaporative demand decreased with time among the four watersheds (p agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Impact of climate change and variability on the global oceanic sink of CO2

OpenAIRE

Le Quéré, Corinne; Takahashi, Taro; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Rödenbeck, Christian; Sutherland, Stewart C.

2010-01-01

About one quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by human activities is absorbed annually by the ocean. All the processes that influence the oceanic uptake of CO2 are controlled by climate. Hence changes in climate (both natural and human-induced) are expected to alter the uptake of CO2 by the ocean. However, available information that constrains the direction, magnitude, or rapidity of the response of ocean CO2 to changes in climate is limited. We present an analysis of oceanic CO2 tre...

Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

2013-09-01

In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

Climate change governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

2013-07-01

Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

Determinants of farmers’ adaptation to climate change: A micro level analysis in Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francis Ndamani

2016-06-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study analyzed socio-economic factors that influence farmers’ adaptation to climate change in agriculture. Perceptions regarding long-term changes in climate variables and the rate of occurrence of weather extremes were also investigated. Additionally, farmers’ perceived barriers to the use of adaptation practices were identified and ranked. A total of 100 farm-households were randomly selected from four communities in the Lawra district of Ghana and data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires, focused group discussions and field observations. A logistic regression model and weighted average index were used to analyze the data. The results showed that 87 % of respondents perceived a decrease in rainfall amount, while 82 % perceived an increase in temperature over the past 10 years. Results of the weighted average index indicate that dry spell and drought have a higher annual rate of occurrence than flood. Empirical results of the logistic regression model showed that education, household size, annual household income, access to information, credit and membership of farmer-based organization are the most important factors that influence farmers’ adaptation to climate change. The main constraints on adaptation include unpredictability of weather, high farm input cost, lack of access to timely weather information and water resources. The policy implication of this study is that governments should mainstream barriers to, and choice factors of, adaptation practices to climate change related projects and programs.

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiciga, Hugo A

2009-01-01

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

Should anticipated impacts of climate change on hydrology modify water management practices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

St-Jean, R.

2008-01-01

Over the last few decades the scientific community has closely monitored climatologic trends and developed theories to better model interactions between the many factors that govern changes in climate. Although climate evolves naturally, evidence continues to mount that rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses are causing accelerated changes: there is now a worldwide consensus about the general warming trend caused by this phenomenon, and now countries are initiating efforts to reduce emission rates, identify the potential impacts, and plan adaptation measures. The electric industry in general is investing in renewable energy sources, low-emission technologies, and emission offsets. More particularly, hydroelectric generators are getting prepared to face the challenge in anticipation of modified temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation, along with possible changes in overall precipitation volumes. Current industry practices in determining expected annual production levels rely 'in almost all instances upon the use of historical streamflow records'. The same survey also shows that 'in no case did respondents indicate that they currently reduce the length of available historical record in order to reflect recent trends in precipitation'. Relying on historical observations is also common practice to forecast inflows for periods longer than a few weeks in the future. Given that changes in precipitation patterns will modify the availability of water, it should be expected that the pattern of production from hydroelectric stations will be altered in a variety of ways: total annual production volumes, seasonal distributions of energy, changes in reservoir management rules caused by extreme events or competing needs for water, and so on, may all be affected. The utility of historical series in predicting the future may decline, and current work practices will potentially need to be modified accordingly. At the same time, electric system operators

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junsheng Li

Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brydges, T.; Fenech, A.

1990-01-01

The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Changing climate, changing frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

Science.gov (United States)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)--A Gulf of Mexico Education Partnership

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, S. H.; Stone, D.; Schultz, T.; LeBlanc, T.; Miller-Way, T.; Estrada, P.

2012-12-01

This five-year, Gulf of Mexico regional collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Office of Education and represents a successful grant submitted by the FL Aquarium as a member of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA). This climate change effort focuses on enhanced content knowledge and the manner in which personal actions and behaviors contribute to sustainability and stewardship. Diverse audiences—represented by visitors at the informal centers listed above—have been and are involved in the following activities: social networking via responses to climate change surveys; an "ocean and climate change defender" computer game, specifically designed for this project; an average of 10 annual outreach events implemented by these facilities at community festivals; climate change lectures provided to family audiences; and professional development workshops for informal and formal educators. This presentation will provide opportunities and challenges encountered during the first two years of implementation. This regional effort is also aligned with both the Ocean Literacy: Essential Principles and the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles. Additional partners include: Normandeau Associates, Conservation Enterprises, Unlimited, and Mindclay Creative.

Effects of climate variables on intra-annual stem radial increment in Pinus cembra (L.) along the alpine treeline ecotone.

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, Andreas; Zimmermann, Jolanda; Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter

2009-08-01

Within the alpine treeline ecotone tree growth is increasingly restricted by extreme climate conditions. Although intra-annual stem growth recorded by dendrometers can be linked to climate, stem diameter increments in slow-growing subalpine trees are masked by changes in tree water status.We tested the hypothesis that intra-annual radial stem growth in Pinus cembra is influenced by different climate variables along the treeline ecotone in the Austrian Alps. Dendrometer traces were compared with dynamics of xylem cell development to date onset of cambial activity and radial stem growth in spring.Daily fluctuations in stem radius reflected changes in tree water status throughout the treeline ecotone. Extracted daily radial increments were significantly correlated with air temperature at the timberline and treeline only, where budburst, cambial activity and enlargement of first tracheids also occurred quite similarly. A close relationship was detected between radial increment and number of enlarging tracheids throughout the treeline ecotone.We conclude that (i) the relationship between climate and radial stem growth within the treeline ecotone is dependent on a close coupling to atmospheric climate conditions and (ii) initiation of cambial activity and radial growth in spring can be distinguished from stem re-hydration by histological analysis.

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Proceedings of the clean air and climate change summit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

The Clean Air Partnership was established in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over 10 years ago to work on issues related to air pollution and climate change. This summit presented details of the partnership's municipal activities and provided an outline of various projects conducted to reduce air pollution, increase the use of green energy, and encourage residents to reduce their ecological footprint. Climate change was discussed in relation to the recent economic crisis and recently discovered problems related to ocean acidification. The International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report was discussed in relation to peak oil and future economic crises. Advancements in green energy policy in Ontario were outlined. Sustainable housing and renewable energy projects in Germany were presented along with successful urban designs in Melbourne, New York City, and Denver. The GTA-CAC inter-governmental declaration on clean air was discussed, and an interim progress report was presented. The summit concluded with a video presentation of a collaborative artistic piece about climate change and the Arctic. 11 figs.

Proceedings of the clean air and climate change summit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The Clean Air Partnership was established in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over 10 years ago to work on issues related to air pollution and climate change. This summit presented details of the partnership's municipal activities and provided an outline of various projects conducted to reduce air pollution, increase the use of green energy, and encourage residents to reduce their ecological footprint. Climate change was discussed in relation to the recent economic crisis and recently discovered problems related to ocean acidification. The International Energy Agency (IEA) annual report was discussed in relation to peak oil and future economic crises. Advancements in green energy policy in Ontario were outlined. Sustainable housing and renewable energy projects in Germany were presented along with successful urban designs in Melbourne, New York City, and Denver. The GTA-CAC inter-governmental declaration on clean air was discussed, and an interim progress report was presented. The summit concluded with a video presentation of a collaborative artistic piece about climate change and the Arctic. 11 figs.

Background document for climate change policy options in Northern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newton, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents an initial compilation of background material in support of the development of climate change policy options for the jurisdictions of Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut in Northern Canada. While Northern Canada contributes only a small fraction of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, scientists forecast changes in average annual temperatures to be among the highest in the world. The Northern Climate Exchange at Yukon College was created in March 2001 to address this issue and to help guide northerners in what they can do now and in the future. This paper includes an annotated bibliography of a total of 75 international, national, and territorial policy documents and major reference documents relevant to climate change issues. It is meant to be a resource for researchers, policy analysts and government officials developing policy options and implementing programs for Northern Canada. While each of the three northern territories are at a different stage in the evolution of their climate change activities, they are all striving to develop strategies and action plans and to initiate the implementation of those plans. It is recognized that many long-standing programs and initiatives, particularly in the areas of energy efficiency and alternate energy, will help northern jurisdictions address their climate change objectives. The three territories are cooperating to deliver their message to the federal government. 75 refs., 4 figs

Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1999-07-01

The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

Global vs climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

1991-01-01

The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Climate for change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newell, P.

2000-01-01

Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

2012-01-01

The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

How is climate change impacting precipitation?

Science.gov (United States)

Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

2015-12-01

Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-05-01

Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.

Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindranath, N H; Sukumar, R [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1998-12-31

Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1997-12-31

Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

Cool Science: K-12 Climate Change Art Displayed on Buses

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Thompson, S. R.

2015-12-01

Cool science is an art contest where K12 students create placards (7" x 22") to educate the public about climate change. Students are prompted to create their artwork in response to questions such as: What is the evidence for climate change? How does climate change impact your local community? What can you do to reduce the impacts of climate change? In each of three years, 500-600 student entrees have been submitted from more than 12 school districts across Massachusetts. A panel of judges including scientists, artists, rapid transit representatives, and educators chooses elementary, middle, and high school winners. Winners (6), runners-up (6), and honorable mentions (12) and their families and teachers are invited to an annual Cool Science Award Ceremony to be recognized and view winning artwork. All winning artwork is posted on the Cool Science website. The winning artwork (2 per grade band) is converted into placards (11" x 28") and posters (2.5' x 12') that are placed on the inside (placards) and outside (posters) of buses. Posters are displayed for one month. So far, Cool Science was implemented in Lowell, MA where over 5000 public viewers see the posters daily on the sides of Lowell Rapid Transit Authority (LRTA) buses, making approximately 1,000,000 impressions per year. Cool Science acts to increase climate literacy in children as well as the public, and as such promotes intergenerational learning. Using art in conjunction with science learning about climate change appears to be effective at engaging not just traditionally high achieving science students, but also those interested in the creative arts. Hearing winners' stories about how they created their artwork and what this contest meant to them supports the idea that Cool Science attracts a wide diversity of students. Parents discuss climate change with their children. Multiple press releases announcing the winners further promotes the awareness of climate change throughout school districts and their

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; McGrath, D.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

2017-09-01

High-resolution regional-scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070-2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA-wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain-on-snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

The annual cycle of African climate and its variability | Jury | Water SA

African Journals Online (AJOL)

low) annual cycle correspond with La Nina (El Nino) and increased (decreased) inter-annual fluctuations of the African climate. A composite analysis shows that the South Atlantic Hadley cell and standing waves in the subtropical jet may connect ...

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM_0.1, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM_2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH₄NO₃. In general, climate

Fire, carbon, and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amiro, B.; Flannigan, M.

2005-01-01

One million hectares of forest are harvested in Canada annually, with 1 to 8 million hectares destroyed by fire and a further 10 to 25 million hectares consumed by insects. Enhanced disturbances have meant that Canadian forests are becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. Canadian fire statistics from the year 1920 were provided along with a map of large fires between 1980 and 1999. A cycle of combustion losses, decomposition and regeneration of forests was presented, along with a stylized concept of forest carbon life cycles with fire. Direct emissions from forests fires were evaluated. An annual net ecosystem production in Canadian boreal forests and stand age was presented. Projections of areas burned were presented based on weather and fire danger relationships, with statistics suggesting that a 75 to 120 per cent increase is likely to occur by the end of this century. Trend observations show that areas burned are correlated with increasing temperature caused by anthropogenic effects. Prevention, detection, suppression and fuels management were presented as areas that needed improvement in fire management. However, management strategies may only postpone an increase in forest fires. Changes in disturbances such as fire and insects will be a significant early impact of climate change on forests. tabs., figs

Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2012-01-01

This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

Implications of global climate change on water resources of the south Asian region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lal, M.

1994-01-01

An assessment of future changes in the mean and/or variances of hydrological parameters due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases is much warranted for south Asia for developing adaptive response strategies. The evolution of changes in surface meteorological as well as hydrological parameters in the transient numerical experiments with the current state-of-art coupled climate models holds much promise for a better understanding of the interannual variability of climate and its change on a regional scale. A plausible future hydrological scenario for the south Asian region based on the numerical results obtained from the reference control and greenhouse warming simulations (using the Business-as-Usual scenario of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere) with the Hamburg climate model is presented in this paper. For validation of regional-scale model-simulated hydrology and the assessment of future changes, analysis of data has been performed for annual mean conditions as well as for two seasons, namely, winter (December to February) and summer (June to August). Their results suggest a rise in annual mean surface air temperature of about 1.0 to 2.5 C over the ocean and between 2.0 to 4.5 C over the land regions of south Asia during the next hundred years. During the NH-winter, surface warming in the land regions of India and China is considerably higher (3.6 C) than during the NH-summer (2.7 C). The model simulates an increase in total (averaged for land points over the study area) annual precipitation of about 16 cm per year in a warmer atmosphere

Climatic Change over the 'Third Pole' from Long Tree-Ring Records

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, E.

2011-12-01

Climatic change over the Greater Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, the 'Third Pole' of the world, is of great concern now as the Earth continues to warm at an alarming rate. While future climatic change over this region and its resulting impacts on humanity and the environment are difficult to predict with much certainty, knowing how climate has varied in the past can provide both an improved understanding of the range of variability and change that could occur in the future and the necessary context for assessing recent observed climatic change there. For this purpose, one of the best natural archives of past climate information available for study of the Third Pole environment is the changing pattern of annual ring widths found in long tree-ring chronologies. The forests of the Third Pole support many long-lived tree species, with some having life spans in excess of 1,000 years. This natural resource is steadily dwindling now due to continuing deforestation caused by human activity, but there is still enough remaining forest cover to produce a detailed network of long tree-ring chronologies for study of climate variability and change covering the past several centuries. The tree-ring records provide a mix of climate information, including that related to both temperature and precipitation. Examples of long drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the more arid parts of the Karakoram and Tibetan Plateau will be presented, along with records that primarily reflect changing temperatures in moister environments such as in Bhutan. Together they provide a glimpse of how climate of the Third Pole has changed over the past several centuries, the range of natural variability that could occur in the future independent of changes caused by greenhouse warming, and how changes during the latter part of the 20th century period of rapid global warming compare to the past.

Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

2018-03-01

During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

Relative importance of climate changes at different time scales on net primary productivity-a case study of the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Huiyu; Zhang, Mingyang; Lin, Zhenshan

2017-10-05

Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.

Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Boxel, John H

2001-01-01

Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

Scientific climate change information by collaborative venture and digital portal

Science.gov (United States)

Dubelaar-Versluis, W.

2010-09-01

Klimaatportaal is the digital entry of Dutch ‘climate' knowledge centres, which are collaborated in the Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC). This collaborative venture was established in 2003 by the Dutch climate research community to improve the quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the communication of Dutch climate research. By now, eight Dutch knowledge centres are participating and still more want to join. The Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) supports the PCCC and the project is implemented in collaboration with the BSIK ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning' programme. The website provides actual and background climate change information for a wide audience on the national scale from policy makers, media to general public. By supplying integral climate information, such as observations of climate change, causes and consequences of climate system, adaptation, mitigation and energy issues, a wide spectrum of target groups will be served. The information is offered in different forms, because of the needs of different target groups. Klimaatportaal contains therefore news on climate issues, frequently asked questions and popular science reports, like the annually brochure De Staat van het Klimaat (‘The State of the Climate'). Recently, also a portal for students is added, where they can find information for their assignments. Beside the website, PCCC is organising activities as symposia and workshops and is supplying information on international issues, for example the content of the Kyoto protocol and the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007). Finally, informing the public through contacts with the media is also an important part of the PCCC. The presentation will address the strengths and weaknesses of this approach which may serve as an example for combining knowledge in outreach activities in other countries.

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

2017-11-01

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change, Politics and Religion: Australian Churchgoers’ Beliefs about Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miriam Pepper

2016-05-01

Full Text Available A growing literature has sought to understand the relationships between religion, politics and views about climate change and climate change policy in the United States. However, little comparative research has been conducted in other countries. This study draws on data from the 2011 Australian National Church Life Survey to examine the beliefs of Australian churchgoers from some 20 denominations about climate change—whether or not it is real and whether it is caused by humans—and political factors that explain variation in these beliefs. Pentecostals, Baptist and Churches of Christ churchgoers, and people from the smallest Protestant denominations were less likely than other churchgoers to believe in anthropogenic climate change, and voting and hierarchical and individualistic views about society predicted beliefs. There was some evidence that these views function differently in relation to climate change beliefs depending on churchgoers’ degree of opposition to gay rights. These findings are of interest not only for the sake of international comparisons, but also in a context where Australia plays a role in international climate change politics that is disproportionate to its small population.

Climate changes your business

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

Science.gov (United States)

Quackenbush, A.

2015-12-01

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

Potential effects of climate change on hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biftu, G.F.; Beersing, A.; Kalinga, O.A.; Pandit, K.N.

2007-01-01

The potential effects of climate change must be incorporated within environmental assessments of oil and gas developments. This paper evaluated the findings of a study examining the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta. Components of the study included a review of trends in climate parameters and their effect on hydrology, as well as statistical analyses of precipitation, temperature and stream flow data of the Athabasca River at both the local and regional scale. The influences of tributary streams were also examined. Results of the study demonstrated that air temperatures have been steadily rising over the past few decades. Recorded annual precipitation also increased during the spring and summer months, and decreased during the winter and fall. Annual mean flows decreased. Results suggested that wet and dry cycles tended to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles were analyzed. The analysis of flows in the tributary streams indicated a that mean and peak flows were also decreasing. However, an increase in peak winter flows was observed. It was concluded that there is a large degree of uncertainty in the predictions of the hydrologic effects of climate change. 17 refs., 6 tabs

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

2017-12-01

Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariam Elizbarashvili

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1993-01-01

The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

The roles of natural areas in a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollard, D.F.W.

1991-01-01

Natural areas are protected sites which are integral parts of a systematic network representing the diversity of natural environments. They are relatively undisturbed by man, selected according to ecological criteria, have assured permanency, are set aside mainly for scientific and educational purposes, and harbor genetic materials of value to society. In the Pacific Northwest, natural areas have been established by the United States Forest Service and the British Columbia Ministry of the Environment and include national parks, wilderness areas, wildlife refuges, and wild rivers. A change in climate will undoubtedly create a mismatch between climatic regions and vegetation and wildlife occupying them. The distribution of plant and animal species will change. Species and communities that will be most affected by climatic change include those at the contracting periphery of the species range, genetically impoverished or highly sensitive species, annual plants, and Arctic and coastal communities. Most species will disperse from existing locations, with variable and unpredictable results. It is conceivable that natural areas will evolve from their current role as refuges to a new role as centers of diversity from which genes migrate into a changing world. Natural areas also serve as a base for biomonitoring of long-term environmental changes and for assessing effects of interventions such as acid precipitation. 32 refs

Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

2014-05-01

Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieter Matthias

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions. Results We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development. Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management. Conclusions The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.

Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

2010-12-01

The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

Farmers' Perceptions of and Adaptations to Changing Climate in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nani Maiya Sujakhu

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change is important to inform policies addressing the risk of climate change to farmers. This case study explored those issues in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal through a survey of 365 households and focus group discussions in 6 communities using a Community-Based Risk Screening Tool–Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL. Analysis of climate trends in the study area for 1979–2009 showed that mean annual temperatures rose by 1.02°C and the frequency of drought increased measurably after 2003. Farmers reported increases in crop pests, hailstorms, landslides, floods, thunderstorms, and erratic precipitation as climate-related hazards affecting agriculture. They responded in a variety of ways including changing farming practices, selling livestock, milk, and eggs, and engaging in daily wage labor and seasonal labor migration. With more efficient support and planning, some of these measures could be adjusted to better meet current and future risks from climate change.

Effect of Climate Change on Surface Ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Zeng, Guang; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg

2016-01-01

The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and anthropogenic ozone precursors are fixed at year-2000 levels. Climate change shifts the seasonal surface ozone peak to earlier in the year and increases the amplitude of the annual cycle. Increases in mean summertime and high-percentile ozone are generally found in polluted environments, while decreases are found in clean environments. We propose climate change augments the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions, thus reducing precursor export to neighboring downwind locations. Even with constant biogenic emissions, climate change causes the largest ozone increases at high percentiles. In most cases, air quality extreme episodes become larger and contain higher ozone levels relative to the rest of the distribution.

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. PMID:29267357

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Manchego, Carlos E; Hildebrandt, Patrick; Cueva, Jorge; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Stimm, Bernd; Günter, Sven

2017-01-01

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium.

Variability and changes in selected climate elements in Madrid and Alicante in the period 2000-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cielecka Katarzyna

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to compare climatic conditions between the interior of the Iberian Peninsula and the southeastern coast of Spain. The article analyzes selected elements of climate over the last 15 years (2000-2014. Synoptic data from airport meteorological stations in Madrid Barajas and Alicante Elche were used. Attention was focused on annual air temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The mean climatic conditions over the period 2000-2014 were compared with those over the 1961-1990 period which is recommended by WMO as climate normal and with data for the 1971-2000 coming from ‘Climate Atlas’ of Spanish meteorologists group AEMET. Two of climate elements discussed were characterized by significant changes. The annual air temperature was higher by about 0.2°C in Alicante and 0.9°C in Madrid in the period 2000-2014 compared to the 1961-1990. The current winters were colder than in years 1961-1990 at both stations. Gradual decrease in annual precipitation totals was observed at both stations. In 1961-1990 the annual average precipitation in Madrid amounted to 414 mm, while in Alicante it was 356 mm. However, in the recent years of 2000-2014 these totals were lower compared to 1961-1990 reaching 364.1 mm in the central part of Spain and 245.7 mm on the south-western coast.

On the brink of change: plant responses to climate on the Colorado Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Schelz, Charles D.; Moran, Mary; Carolin, Tara W.

2011-01-01

The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.18°C per year from 1989–1995, 0.06°C per year from 1995–2003, declined by 0.14°C from 2003–2008, and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C3 perennial grasses, no change of C4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote

Preface to the Special Issue on Geodynamic and Climate-Change Processes over Tibet, Xinjiang and Siberia

OpenAIRE

Cheinway Hwang; Benjamin Fong Chao; Jeffrey T. Freymueller; Wenbin Shen; C. K. Shum

2011-01-01

Tibet, Xinjiang and Siberia (TibXS) are regions with active plate tectonics. Evidence from satellite gravimetry and altimetry shows the hydrological evolutions over these regions are sensitive to global climate change. For example, inter-annual lake level changes over Tibet and Xinjiang from satellite altimetry are found to be connected to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Lakes in central Asia, Xinjiang and Siberia show sharp changes in lake levels that can be explained by climate cha...

Should anticipated impacts of climate change on hydrology modify water management practices?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

St-Jean, R. [Energie Renouvelable Brookfield, Gatineau, Quebec (Canada)

2008-07-01

Over the last few decades the scientific community has closely monitored climatologic trends and developed theories to better model interactions between the many factors that govern changes in climate. Although climate evolves naturally, evidence continues to mount that rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses are causing accelerated changes: there is now a worldwide consensus about the general warming trend caused by this phenomenon, and now countries are initiating efforts to reduce emission rates, identify the potential impacts, and plan adaptation measures. The electric industry in general is investing in renewable energy sources, low-emission technologies, and emission offsets. More particularly, hydroelectric generators are getting prepared to face the challenge in anticipation of modified temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation, along with possible changes in overall precipitation volumes. Current industry practices in determining expected annual production levels rely 'in almost all instances upon the use of historical streamflow records'. The same survey also shows that 'in no case did respondents indicate that they currently reduce the length of available historical record in order to reflect recent trends in precipitation'. Relying on historical observations is also common practice to forecast inflows for periods longer than a few weeks in the future. Given that changes in precipitation patterns will modify the availability of water, it should be expected that the pattern of production from hydroelectric stations will be altered in a variety of ways: total annual production volumes, seasonal distributions of energy, changes in reservoir management rules caused by extreme events or competing needs for water, and so on, may all be affected. The utility of historical series in predicting the future may decline, and current work practices will potentially need to be modified accordingly. At the same time

Our changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandel, R.

1990-01-01

The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

Climate change and skin disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundgren, Ashley D

2018-04-01

Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

Annual Change Report 2003/2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

As part of continuing compliance, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide any change in information since the most recent compliance application. This requirement is identified in Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Section 194.4(b)(4), which states: 'No later than six months after the administrator issues a certification, and at least annually thereafter, the Department shall report to the Administrator, in writing, any changes in conditions or activities pertaining to the disposal system that were not required to be reported by paragraph (b)(3) of this section and that differ from information contained in the most recent compliance application.' In meeting the requirement, the DOE provides an annual report of all changes applicable under the above requirement each November. This annual report informs the EPA of changes to information in the most recent compliance application, or for this report the 1996 Compliance Certification Application (CCA). Significant planned changes must be reported to the EPA prior to implementation by the DOE. In addition, Title 40 CFR, Section 194.4(b)(3) requires that significant unplanned changes be reported to the EPA within 24 hours or ten days, depending on the severity of the activity or condition. To date, there have been no significant unplanned changes to the certification basis. Planned changes have been submitted on an individual basis. All other changes are reported annually. The period covered by this Annual Change Report includes changes that occurred between July 1, 2003, and June 30, 2004. Changes in activities or conditions are reviewed to determine if 40 CFR Section 194.4(b)(3) reporting is necessary. As indicated above, no significant unplanned changes were identified for the time period covered by this report. The enclosed tables list those items identified for reporting under 40 CFR Section 194.4(b)(4). The majority of the changes described in

Climatic controls on diffuse groundwater recharge across Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. V. Barron

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Reviews of field studies of groundwater recharge have attempted to investigate how climate characteristics control recharge, but due to a lack of data have not been able to draw any strong conclusions beyond that rainfall is the major determinant. This study has used numerical modelling for a range of Köppen-Geiger climate types (tropical, arid and temperate to investigate the effect of climate variables on recharge for different soil and vegetation types. For the majority of climate types, the correlation between the modelled recharge and total annual rainfall is weaker than the correlation between recharge and the annual rainfall parameters reflecting rainfall intensity. Under similar soil and vegetation conditions for the same annual rainfall, annual recharge in regions with winter-dominated rainfall is greater than in regions with summer-dominated rainfall. The importance of climate parameters other than rainfall in recharge estimation is highest in the tropical climate type. Mean annual values of solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit show a greater importance in recharge estimation than mean annual values of the daily mean temperature. Climate parameters have the lowest relative importance in recharge estimation in the arid climate type (with cold winters and the temperate climate type. For 75% of all soil, vegetation and climate types investigated, recharge elasticity varies between 2 and 4 indicating a 20% to 40% change in recharge for a 10% change in annual rainfall. Understanding how climate controls recharge under the observed historical climate allows more informed choices of analogue sites if they are to be used for climate change impact assessments.

High-latitude tree-ring data: Records of climatic change and ecological response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graumlich, L.J.

1991-01-01

Tree-ring data provide critical information regarding two fundamental questions as to the role of the polar regions in global change: (1) what is the nature of climatic variability? and (2) what is the response of vegetation to climatic variability? Tree-ring-based climatic reconstructions document the variability of the climate system on time scales of years to centuries. Dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that the climatic episodes defined on the basis of documentary evidence in western Europe (i.e., Medieval Warm Episode, ca. A.D. 1000-1300; Little Ice Age, ca. A.D. 1550-1850) can be observed at some high-latitude sites (ex., Polar Urals). Spatial variation in long-term temperature trends (ex., northern Fennoscandia vs. Polar Urals) demonstrates the importance of regional-scale climatic controls. When collated into global networks, proxy-based climatic reconstructions can be used to test hypotheses as to the relative importance of external forcing vs. internal variation in governing climatic variation. Specifically, such a global network would allow the quantification of the climatic response to various permutations of factors thought to be important in governing decadal- to centennial-scale climatic variation. Tree populations respond to annual- to centennial-scale climatic variation through changes in rates of growth, establishment, and mortality. Tree-ring studies that document multiple aspects of high-latitude treeline dynamics (i.e., the timing of tree establishment, mortality, and changes from krummholz to upright growth) indicate a complex interaction between growth form, population processes, and environmental variability. Such interactions result in varying sensitivities of high-latitude trees to climatic change

Quality Climate Change Professional Development Translates into Quality Climate Change Education (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, M. A.

2013-12-01

Perhaps one of the reasons we have so many climate change deniers in the United States is that to them climate change is not occurring. This is a valid claim about climate change deniers considering that the effects of climate change in the mid-latitudes are quite subtle as compared to those found in low-latitude and high-latitude regions. A mid-latitude classroom teacher is saddled with the challenge of enlightening students about our changing climate and empowering students to assist in making necessary lifestyle changes, all the while the students don't understand the urgency in doing so. Quality climate change data and resources from the Polar Regions and low latitudes, as well as connections to researchers from these regions help to bridge the understanding of our changing climate from the extreme latitudes to the mid-latitudes. Connecting science teachers with data, resources, and researchers is one way of ensuring our mid-latitude students understand the urgency in taking appropriate actions to adapt, mitigate, and show resilience. This presentation will highlight a few of the many impacts of an authentic research experience for teachers that not only provides teachers with data, resources, and researchers, but changes the way a science teacher teaches where the methods they use mirror the methods used by scientists. National projects like PolarTREC connect educators with the science of climate change as well as the reality of impacts of climate change. For example, research expeditions in the Arctic and in Antarctica connect teachers with the content and practices of climate change science preparing them to replicate their experiences with their students. A PolarTREC experience does not end with the close of the expedition. Teachers continue their connections with the program through their educator network, the integration of PolarTREC resources into their curriculums, and communications with their principal investigators either virtually or with school

Trade and climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

2009-06-15

The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Tian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leng, Guoyong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kraucunas, Ian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2018-03-01

Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-induced alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.

The climate is changing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.

2001-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

Soils and climate: redness and weathering as indicators of mean annual precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lucke, Bernhard

2016-04-01

Paleosols can be used as archives of past changes of climate and landscapes, but their interpretation has to be based on modern analogies such as Budyko's law of soil zonality. These can be very useful if the respective processes of soil formation are sufficiently well understood. However, some soils such as the Terra Rossa or Red Mediterranean Soils, that are widespread at the fringes of the steppes and deserts, are still disputed with regard to their genesis and environmental significance. In particular, there is no agreement whether they resemble current environmental conditions, or are inherited from climates or sediments of the past. In this context, a remarkable change of the color of surface soils can be observed when driving from the city of Irbid in Jordan towards the east. Soil color apparently changes slowly, but steadily from dark red to yellow colors. However, attempting to express these color changes in numerical form is challenging, and it seemed questionable whether color is indeed connected with soil weathering intensity, or an optical illusion. However, a systematic comparison of different approaches of calculating soil redness found that the CIELAB-color system is suited for numerical expressions of soil redness and performs better than the Munsell charts. Along the investigated transect in Jordan, soil color seems strongly connected with weathering intensity, since various weathering indicators point to a steady increase of soil development with moisture. This suggests that such indices can well be used in semi-arid areas of 250-600 mm of mean annual precipitation. A very strong correlation of magnetic enhancement and rainfall indicates that the investigated soils are forming in equilibrium with current climatic conditions, and regressions based on this gradient might be suited for estimating paleorainfalls recorded by buried paelosols. It seems therefore that surface Terra Rossa soils in Jordan can be in equilibrium with current climate

Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, J.W.C.

2001-01-01

Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

Assessment on the Effect of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huanqing Bian

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Tuotuo River basin, known as the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six Global Climate Models (GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs scenarios. First, the already impacted climate change was analyzed, based on the historical data available and then, the simulation results of the GCMs and RCPs were used for future scenario assessments. Results indicated that the annual mean temperature will likely be increased, ranging from −0.66 °C to 6.68 °C during the three future prediction periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s, while the change in the annual precipitation ranged from −1.18% to 66.14%. Then, a well-known distributed hydrological soil vegetation model (DHSVM was utilized to evaluate the effects of future climate change on the streamflow dynamics. The seasonal mean streamflows, predicted by the six GCMs and the three RCPs scenarios, were also shown to likely increase, ranging from −0.52% to 22.58%. Watershed managers and regulators can use the findings from this study to better implement their conservation practices in the face of climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Zhang

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Identifying changes in runoff and quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities are of great significance for water resources planning and management in a river basin. In this study, an inflow series of the Three Gorges Reservoir observed from 1951 to 2016 is used to identify the trend and abrupt change point by using statistical methods. Based on the meteorological data, soil type data, and land use data during the same period, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model is established to quantitatively attribute changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow to climate change and human activities separately and discuss the differences between the two-stage method, which divides the whole study period into two stages to analyze the reasons for runoff evolution, and multi-stage method, which divides the whole study period into more stages to consider the temporal and spatial variation of land use/cover (LULC. The results show: (1 During the study period, a significant decrease is detected in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow and the decrease rate is 7.7 km3 per ten years, annual total precipitation decreases by −13.5 mm per ten years, and annual average temperature increases by 0.1 °C per ten years. (2 Contribution of climate change and human activities is around 7:3. Climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow. (3 Results of stages in multi-stage method are different from the result of two-stage method. Accumulative results of multi-stage method and result of two-stage method are consistent. There are some changes in results of every stage, which are different from the accumulative results.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

Science.gov (United States)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

Climate Change Portal - Home Page

Science.gov (United States)

Science Partnerships Contact Us Take Action Climate change is already having significant and widespread of climate change. Business Businesses throughout California are taking action to address climate climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrison, W. [Boston Univ., MA (United States); Mendelsohn, R. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

1998-09-01

This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion.

The impacts of climate change on energy: An aggregate expenditure model for the US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrison, W.; Mendelsohn, R.

1998-01-01

This paper develops a theoretical model to measure the climate change impacts to the energy sector. Welfare effects are approximately equal to the resulting change in expenditures on energy and buildings. Using micro data on individuals and firms across the United States, energy expenditures are regressed on climate and other control variables to estimate both short-run and long-run climate response functions. The analysis suggests that energy expenditures have a quadratic U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. Future warming of 2 C is predicted to cause annual damages of about $6 billion but increases of 5 C would increase damages to almost $30 billion

Climate change and forest diseases

Science.gov (United States)

R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

2011-01-01

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

Climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1977-02-15

In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

Climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-01-01

In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Mathias; Orth, René; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-03-01

The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave.

Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: An Economic Impact Analysis of Malaria in Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ximing Wu

2011-03-01

Full Text Available A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.

Climate Change and Malaria

OpenAIRE

Goklany;, I. M.

2004-01-01

Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-12-31

Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth`s atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Climate change and Finland. Summary of the Finnish research programme on climate change (SILMU)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

Anthropogenic impacts on the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause significant global climate changes during the next few decades. These changes will have many consequences both in nature and on human activities. In order to investigate the implications of such changes in Finland, a six-year multidisciplinary national research programme on climate and global change, the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), was initiated in 1990. The key research areas were: (1) quantification of the greenhouse effect and the magnitude of anticipated climate changes, (2) assessment of the effects of changing climate on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and (3) development of mitigation and adaptation strategies

WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUBJECTED TO BIAS CORRECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Mourato

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Regional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961–1990 and scenario (2071–2100 periods. At southern Portu gal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temp eratures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct inpu t of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Dire ct Forcing and Hybrid are analysed and their performances in water availability impac t studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variab ility is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variabi lity, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff pro jections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff d ecrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shor tage that is already experienc ed. The overall annual reduction varies between –80% and –35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delt a Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between –80% and –5 2%.

Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2014-12-01

We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

Chatham Islands Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

2005-06-01

This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPs—The Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Babur

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Assessment of climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. Bias correction was performed on GCMs temperature and precipitation data. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (SWAT for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 and compared with the baseline data (1981–2010 to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Winter and spring showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, while summer and autumn showed a decrease in streamflow. High flows were predicted to increase, but median flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of high flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from May to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date of the annual flow may vary from −11 to 23 days in the basin, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As a whole, the Mangla basin will face more floods and less droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high and low flows, decrease in median flows and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

Nonlinearity and Fractal Properties of Climate Change during the Past 500 Years in Northwestern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiquan Wan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available By using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA, the present paper analyzed the nonlinearity and fractal properties of tree-ring records from two types of trees in northwestern China, and then we disclosed climate change characteristics during the past 500 years in this area. The results indicate that climate change in northwestern China displayed a long-range correlation (LRC, which can exist over time span of 100 years or longer. This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for long-term climate predictions. Combining the DFA results obtained from daily temperatures records at the Xi’an meteorological observation station, which is near the southern peak of the Huashan Mountains, self-similarities widely existed in climate change on monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal timescales during the past 500 years in northwestern China, and this change was a typical nonlinear process.

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Raposo, Juan Ramón; Dafonte, Jorge; Molinero, Jorge

2013-03-01

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO2 concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer-autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.

Changing climate increases discharge and attenuates its seasonal distribution in the northeastern United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rouzbeh Berton

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Study region: The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest is well-established as a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER site for climate change and anthropogenic impacts studies on hydrological processes. It is located at the headwater regions of the Merrimack Watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, USA. The watershed is mostly forested (67% with some developed regions (16%. Study focus: We assessed the scale-dependency of streamflow response to climate variation, river regulation, and development for dry, average, and wet years using long-term precipitation and discharge records. New hydrological insights for the region: The effects of basin scale were limited to discharges with exceedance probability less than 15% and greater than 60% and were expressed as lagged discharge in large sub-basins and earlier discharge in small catchments. Annual discharge responded to increases in annual precipitation but not to river regulation or land development. In general, the temporal trends showed less discharge in dry and greater discharge in wet hydrologic flow classes. Keywords: Climate change, Land development, Hydrologic indicator, Scale dependency, Merrimack river, Northeastern United States

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Asking about climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

2014-01-01

and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

Assessing the response of runoff to climate change and human activities for a typical basin in the Northern Taihang Mountain, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jinfeng; Gao, Yanchuan; Wang, Sheng

2018-04-01

Climate change and human activities are the two main factors on runoff change. Quantifying the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change is important for water resources planning and management. In this study, the variation trend and abrupt change point of hydro-meteorological factors during 1960-2012 were detected by using the Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt change-point statistics. Then the runoff was simulated by SWAT model. The contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change was calculated based on the SWAT model and the elasticity coefficient method. The results showed that in contrast to the increasing trend for annual temperature, the significant decreasing trends were detected for annual runoff and precipitation, with an abrupt change point in 1982. The simulated results of SWAT had good consistency with observed ones, and the values of R2 and E_{NS} all exceeded 0.75. The two methods used for assessing the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction yielded consistent results. The contribution of climate change (precipitation reduction and temperature rise) was {˜ }37.5%, while the contribution of human activities (the increase of economic forest and built-up land, hydrologic projects) was {˜ }62.5%.

Land surface phenology of Northeast China during 2000-2015: temporal changes and relationships with climate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng

2017-10-01

As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.