Robert, Christian P.; Mengersen, Kerrie; Chen, Carla
The new perspectives on ABC and Bayesian model criticisms presented in Ratmann et al.(2009) are challenging standard approaches to Bayesian model choice. We discuss here some issues arising from the authors' approach, including prior influence, model assessment and criticism, and the meaning of error in ABC.
The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested
Agha Faisal Habib Pathan
Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive
Purushottam Papatla; Lakshman Krishnamurthi
There are many products which are repeatedly purchased by consumers. In such cases it is likely that choice history, that is the sequence of choices made in the past, as well as marketing variables affect subsequent choice decisions. Attempts to model the effects of choice history have been generally based on the inclusion of variables that represent brand loyalty and/or variety seeking behavior. In this paper we present a model of dynamic choice behavior which is more general and incorporate...
Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel;
. The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...... in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests...
Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL
In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.
Timmermans, HJP Harry
Stated preference and choice models currently used in urban planning are focused on predicting single choices. In this paper the intention is to extend these modelling approaches to the case of sequential choice behaviour. Design strategies and model specifications that allow one to predict sequential choice are discussed. The approach is illustrated in a study of sequential mode and destination choice behaviour for shopping trips. The research findings suggest that the proposed approach may ...
This dissertation consists of three essays divided into chapters. In chapter 1, I analyze the identification of a simultaneous binary response model without nonadditive unobservable random terms, and suggest an estimation method. In particular, the derivatives of structural equations are identified and estimated. The identification relies on a special regressor, which enters the underlying structural equation linearly. All other exogenous variables held constant, variation on this special reg...
Sørensen, Majken Vildrik
This thesis gives an overview of what has been done in the research area of passenger transport modelling, with a focus on the model type in the core of a model complex. After a formulation of the choice problem (choice probability, the set alternatives), a method for estimation and requirements...... between model, data and estimation are described, with a focus of possibilities/limitations of different techniques. Two special issues of modelling are addressed in further detail, namely data segmentation and estimation of Mixed Logit models. Both issues are concerned with whether individuals can be...... assumed ’homogeneous’, that is, can be described by the same model (fixed coefficients). First, a new method for data segmentation is proposed, which segments data by individual preferences. Segmentation by individual preferences will diminish the severeness of the assumed homogeneity of individuals...
This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…
Robert, Christian P.; Wraith, Darren
In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.
Full Text Available This paper intends to find out which parameters have the highest influence on bicyclists’ route-choice-behaviour and how they contribute. There are many attributes considered throughout different studies that are favoured by cyclists. The attributes are the basis for generating a function which predicts the route choice of cyclists. The paper aims at making a comparison between distance-based routes and attribute-based routes. The model for creating the bicycle route choice program is based on the network model of Norrköping, Sweden. The preferred attributes of the model each assign a weight in the cost function of the model for each link of the urban network. The algorithm of the lowest cost function route searches the shortest path in terms of assigned link costs over the whole network. For comparing the results of the cost function and the shortest route (between an origin-destination, the model has a shortest path finding algorithm between different Origin and Destination pairs implemented. It has been viewed that around 25% of all cumulative routes do not show any distance differences between the shortest path distance and attributes based solution. With the used weights of the Standard scenario, it can be seen that the trade-off between shortest distance and safety respectively comfort can be optimized, fulfilling both criteria (distance and safety/comfort.
Recent advances in "simulation based inference" have made it feasible to estimate discrete choice models with several alternatives and rich patterns of consumer taste heterogeneity. These new methods have important potential application in health economics. One important application is the analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets characterized by competition among several alternative insurance plans. Analysis of consumer choice behavior in insurance markets is of great intere...
Prato, Carlo Giacomo
modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation....... Initially, path generation techniques are implemented within a synthetic network to generate possible subjective choice sets considered by travelers. Next, ‘true model estimates’ and ‘postulated predicted routes’ are assumed from the simulation of a route choice model. Then, objective choice sets are...... applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments for the...
Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer
The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored. PMID:25987995
Prato, Carlo Giacomo
-based stochastic user equilibrium. However, in the same context the RRM literature has not confronted three major challenges: (i) accounting for similarity across alternative routes, (ii) analyzing choice set composition effects on choice probabilities, and (iii) comparing the RRM model with advanced RUM...... counterparts. This paper looks into RRM-based route choice models from these three perspectives by (i) proposing utility-based and regret-based correction terms to account for similarity across alternatives, (ii) analyzing the variation of choice set probabilities with the choice set composition, and (iii......) comparing RRM-based route choice models with C-Logit, Path Size Logit and Paired Combinatorial Logit. Results illustrate the definition of RRM-based route choice models with correction terms within the regret function, show their lack of robustness with respect to the choice set composition, and present...
Full Text Available The 2N-ary choice tree model accounts for response times and choice probabilities in multi-alternative preferential choice. It implements pairwise comparison of alternatives on weighted attributes into an information sampling process which, in turn, results in a preference process. The model provides expected choice probabilities and response time distributions in closed form for optional and fixed stopping times. The theoretical background of the 2N-ary choice tree model is explained in detail with focus on the transition probabilities that take into account constituents of human preferences such as expectations, emotions or socially influenced attention. Then it is shown how the model accounts for several context-effects observed in human preferential choice like similarity, attraction and compromise effects and how long it takes, on average, for the decision. The model is extended to deal with more than three choice alternatives. A short discussion on how the $2N$-ary choice tree model differs from the Multi-alternative Decision Field Theory and the Leaky Competing Accumulator model is provided.
Borgers, A.W.J.; Heijden, R.E.C.M. van der; H J P Timmermans
Conventional choice-models are based on the assumption of a stable utility function. Previous studies have indicated that this assumption may be less valid for certain types of choice-behaviour. In this paper the idea of variety seeking is put forward as a possible explanation for varied choice-behaviour. A model is developed and tested in the context of recreational choice-behaviour.
Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram
multinomial criteria that involve trade-offs between attributes at the choice set formation stage. This study proposes a novel behavioral paradigm consisting of a hybrid compensatory-noncompensatory choice set formation process, followed by compensatory choice. The behavioral paradigm is represented by a...... mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...... multinomial-response thresholds into semicompensatory models....
José M. Labeaga; Mercedes Martos-Partal; Nora Lado
This paper attempts to validate the double jeopardy loyalty effect in a utility framework using a discrete choice approach instead of the Dirichlet model. We specify brand choice and allow for differences in brand loyalty measures across brands in two different product categories. The discrete choice model formulations include a multinomial and a latent class multinomial logit model. Using ACNielsen household scanner panel data to estimate the models, we find that market share leaders enjoy h...
Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens
We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of lin...
The analysis of the observations of the symbiotic star Z And has shown that at present there is no choice for its model. If the hot component is an accreting while dwarf with the hydrogen-burning shell source, then the gas envelope must have Tsub(e) approximately 2.6x104 K. If the hot component is a main-sequence star with the accretion disk around it then it is classified as a red dwarf. The electron tempearature of the gas envelope must be equal to 1.5x104 K. The luminosity of the hot component at the minimum of its visual brightness is only a few times smaller than its Eddington limit. Therefore, with rising accretion rate, the initial increase of its brightness (ΔU < or approximately 1sup(m).5), not accompanied by considerable changes of the spectrum of Z And, will be followed by a destruction of the regular disk and by a flare of the star in the visual range. In the same model, partial eclipses of the hot shource must occur. They are probably observed on the star light curve in the U band. The replacement in the double system ''red dwarf+red giant'' of the former component by a solar-type star will lead to a significant decrease of excitation of the combination spectrum
Charpentier, C. J.; De Neve, J. E.; Li, X; Roiser, J. P.; Sharot, T.
Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing...
Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel
The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimat...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....
Vandekerckhove, Joachim; Tuerlinckx, Francis; Lee, Michael D.
Two-choice response times are a common type of data, and much research has been devoted to the development of process models for such data. However, the practical application of these models is notoriously complicated, and flexible methods are largely nonexistent. We combine a popular model for choice response times--the Wiener diffusion…
Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.
This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…
Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen
Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. PMID:27310534
Shefer, Daniel; Cohen, Mordechai; Bekhor, Shlomo
This paper is concerned with the development of varieties and fertilization techniques of greenhouse tomatoes, and their spatial diffusion in the northwestern region of the Negev in Israel. The main objective of the paper is to identify the factors affecting the farmers’ decision to adopt innovations and the factors inducing the process of knowledge-diffusion in the rural region. The approach adopted is the use of discrete choice models based on random utility theory. Results of the empirical...
Arfer, Kodi B; Luhmann, Christian C
How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision-making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross-validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100-trial binary-decision task. Many models achieved the apparent ceiling of 85% accuracy, even with smaller training sets. When noise was added to the training set, however, a simple logistic-regression model we call the difference model performed particularly well. In many situations, between-model differences in predictive accuracy may be small, contrary to long-standing controversy over the modelling question in research on intertemporal choice, but the simplicity and robustness of the difference model recommend it to future use. PMID:25773127
Esmeralda Ramalho; Joaquim Ramalho; Jose M.R. Murteira
This note introduces a supremum-type RESET statistic for testing the specification of binary choice regression models. A Monte Carlo simulation study reveals very promising results for the proposed statistic.
Takahashi, Taiki; Oono, Hidemi; Radford, Mark H.B.
Intertemporal choice and psychophysics of time perception have been attracting attention in econophysics and neuroeconomics. Several models have been proposed for intertemporal choice: exponential discounting, general hyperbolic discounting (exponential discounting with logarithmic time perception of the Weber–Fechner law, a q-exponential discount model based on Tsallis’s statistics), simple hyperbolic discounting, and Stevens’ power law–exponential discounting (exponential discounting with S...
Sandor, Z; Wedel, M
A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard multinomia
Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali
Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751
Robert, Christian P.; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427–442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics...
Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.
Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…
Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya
In this study, we propose two models for predicting people's activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that "have more shops, and are wider and lower". In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274
Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.
Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel
absolute differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients...
Killeen, Peter R.
Incentive theory is extended to account for concurrent chained schedules of reinforcement. The basic model consists of additive contributions from the primary and secondary effects of reinforcers, which serve to direct the behavior activated by reinforcement. The activation is proportional to the rate of reinforcement and interacts multiplicatively with the directive effects. The two free parameters are q, the slope of the delay of reinforcement gradient, whose value is constant across many e...
Roos, Leslie L., Jr.
An economic model of consumer choice is used to link the separate theories that have dealt with comparative politics, job satisfaction, and organizational mobility. The model is used to structure data taken from studies of Turkish and French elites on environmental change, organizational mobility, and satisfaction. (Author/DN)
de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta
The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... chaining, tour type choice, and number of tours have received less attention. This work aims to contribute to the research dealing with the role of land use patterns on tour type choice. To pursue this objective, a tour type choice is modeled using a hybrid choice model that allows simulating the effect of...... the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the...
Robert, Christian P; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Marin, Jean-Michel; Pillai, Natesh S
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models. Grelaud et al. [(2009) Bayesian Anal 3:427-442] advocated the use of ABC for model choice in the specific case of Gibbs random fields, relying on an intermodel sufficiency property to show that the approximation was legitimate. We implemented ABC model choice in a wide range of phylogenetic models in the Do It Yourself-ABC (DIY-ABC) software [Cornuet et al. (2008) Bioinformatics 24:2713-2719]. We now present arguments as to why the theoretical arguments for ABC model choice are missing, because the algorithm involves an unknown loss of information induced by the use of insufficient summary statistics. The approximation error of the posterior probabilities of the models under comparison may thus be unrelated with the computational effort spent in running an ABC algorithm. We then conclude that additional empirical verifications of the performances of the ABC procedure as those available in DIY-ABC are necessary to conduct model choice. PMID:21876135
A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model
A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.
Cláudio R. Lucinda
Full Text Available This paper aims to understand under which circumstances the employment of the services of a ﬁnancial intermediary is preferred to the decentralized capital market, as well as to provide some reasons why these types of ﬁnancing coexist. In order to do that, it will be developed a model in which the free-rider effects lead to proﬁt opportunities for an intermediary when asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers is present. The analysis is extended to a multi-period setting, where the focus is ascertain if, under repeated interaction between the agents, the availability of information on payment history of a borrower alters the previous results. (Full article in Portuguese only
Taking the right decision can be a very challenging and daunting process. Designing a mobile phone, a make up case or even a pipe needs engineering teams to continuously make important choices frequently. http://www.um.edu.mt/think/choices-choices-choices/
This paper uses school choice policy as an example to demonstrate how local actors adopt, mediate, translate, and reformulate "choice" as neo-liberal rhetoric informing education reform. Complex processes exist between global policy about school choice and the local practice of school choice. Based on the theoretical sensibility of…
Serra, Daniel (informaticien); Colom??, Rosa
A new direction of research in Competitive Location theory incorporates theories of Consumer Choice Behavior in its models. Following this direction, this paper studies the importance of consumer behavior with respect to distance or transportation costs in the optimality of locations obtained by traditional Competitive Location models. To do this, it considers different ways of defining a key parameter in the basic Maximum Capture model (MAXCAP). This parameter will reflect ...
Polyakov, Maksym; Wear, David N.; Huggett, Robert
Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price elasticities indicate a dominant influence of sawtimber markets on pulpwood supply. This approach allows predicting the supply conse...
In this article, I show how item response models can be used to capture multiple response processes in psychological applications. Intuitive and analytical responses, agree-disagree answers, response refusals, socially desirable responding, differential item functioning, and choices among multiple options are considered. In each of these cases, I…
Navarick, Douglas J.; Fantino, Edmund
Given an opportunity to choose between an immediate, small reward and a delayed, large reward, pigeons may commit themselves to the large reward, but if the choice is encountered they will almost always select the immediate, small reward. This study tested a model, developed by H. Rachlin and his co-workers, concerning some general theories of…
Theories of exploratory behavior suggest that inertia and variety-seeking tendencies may coexist within the individual, implying that the same individual may exhibit inertia and variety-seeking at different times depending on his/her choice history. Past research has not allowed for such -consumer variability in these tendencies. The purpose of this study is to present a choice model that allows us to identify such “hybrid” behavior (i.e., a mixture of inertia and variety-seeking), and to dis...
Kornstad, Tom; Thoresen, Thor Olav
Abstract: A discrete choice model for labor supply and child care for mothers of preschoolers is presented. The mothers are assumed to make choices from a finite set of job possibilities and from a finite set of child care options. The options in the markets for child care are characterized by opening hours, fees and a number of quality attributes, such as mode of care. Similarly, jobs are characterized by a (fixed) wage rate, working hours and a number of variables related to job satisfac...
T.A. Arentze (Theo); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); C.G. Chorus (Casper)
textabstractWe introduce an extension of the discrete choice model to take into account individuals’ mental representation of a choice problem. We argue that, especially in daily activity and travel choices, the activated needs of an individual have an influence on the benefits he or she pursues in
Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu
The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that models with the prospect utility (PU) function are more effective than the EU models in the IGT (Ahn et al., 2008). Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests based on our behavioral dataset and modeling, it was determined that the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results. This study aims to modify the Ahn et al. (2008) PU model to a simplified model and used the IGT performance of 145 subjects as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly as the value of α approached zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ, and A in the PU model. Notably, the influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical power structure in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there are other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic-uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found yet. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated. PMID:27582715
Haworth, Guy McCrossan; Regan, Ken; Di Fatta, Giuseppe
Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration ...
The issue of consumer heterogeneity in discrete choice analysis has been attracting much attention recently. Research has suggested that heterogeneity can result in biased parameter estimates which, in turn, can lead to incorrect conclusions. Among the many methods proposed in the literature to handle heterogeneity, models seem to be the most attractive from a substantive point of view. However, in order to provide consistent estimates, these models typically require long purchase histories. ...
Rick L. Andrews; Andrew Ainslie; Imran S. Currim
Random coefficients choice models are seeing widespread adoption in marketing research, partly because of their ability to generate household-level parameter estimates with limited data. However, the power of such models may tempt researchers to trust that they continue to produce reasonable estimates, when in fact either model misspecification or insufficient data limits the models' ability to recover household-level parameters successfully. If household-level choice behaviors are not recove...
Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.
Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan
This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…
Talluri, Kalyan; van Ryzin, Garrett
Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an important phe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models or methodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield management systems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, we develop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior is modeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. The control problem is to decide which subset of fare cl...
Full Text Available This paper studied the behavior-cognitive model of drivers during their travel based on the current research on driver behavior. Firstly, a route choice behavior-cognitive model was proposed for describing the decision-making mechanism of drivers during his travel; then, simulation experiments were carried out on the co-simulation VBc-vissim platform. From the experimental results, dynamic behavior features of drivers during their travel can be properly explained by the behavior-cognitive model, thus optimal path can be obtained from this model.
Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.
Fok, Dennis; Franses, Philip Hans; Paap, Richard
textabstractIn this paper we put forward a brand choice model which incorporates responsiveness to marketing efforts as a form of structural heterogeneity. We introduce two latent segments of households. The households in the first segment are assumed to respond to marketing efforts while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics a...
Killeen, P R; Fantino, E
Two models for choice between delayed reinforcers, Fantino's delay-reduction theory and Killeen's incentive theory, are reviewed. Incentive theory is amended to incorporate the effects of arousal on alternate types of behavior that might block the reinforcement of the target behavior. This amended version is shown to differ from the delay-reduction theory in a term that is an exponential in incentive theory and a difference in delay-reduction theory. A power series approximation to the expone...
Russ, Katheryn; Valderrama, Diego
We join the new trade theory with a model of choice between bank and bond financing to show the differential effects of financial policy on the distribution of firm size, welfare, aggregate output, gains from trade, and the real exchange rate in a small open economy. Increasing bank efficiency and reducing bond transaction costs both increase welfare but have opposite effects on the extensive margin of trade, aggregate exports, and the real exchange rate. Increasing the degree of trade openne...
Kamakura, Wagner A.; Byung-Do Kim; Jonathan Lee
Consumer heterogeneity is fundamental to the marketing concept, providing the basis for market segmentation, targeting and positioning, as well as micro-marketing. Substantial effort has already been devoted to incorporate heterogeneity in brand choice models. However, most of the research in this area has focused on differences in preferences or tastes across consumers. In contrast, limited attention has been given to the possibility that consumers might also differ in the process they follo...
Carlsen, Robert W.
Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors
Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram
Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial...... model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating multinomial...
Otteni, J C; Ancellin, J; Cazalaà, J B; Clergue, F; Feiss, P; Fougère, S; Nivoche, Y; Safran, D
This update article discusses the criteria for the choice of an anaesthetic machine and provides a short analysis of the main components of the models commercialized in France in 1994. The following items are considered: the design of the machine, the fresh gas delivery system, the anaesthesia breathing system(s), the ventilator and the waste gas scavenging system, the monitors associated with the machine and other criteria such as facility of learning to run the machine and of its daily use, ease of "in-house" maintenance and quality of after-sales service, cost of the machine and of its use (driving gas, disposable equipment). PMID:7677278
Balboni, Alberto; Balboni, Fabio
We adopt a framework of vertical differentiation (i.e. differentiation by quality) to study the issue of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). We develop a model of duopoly in a two‐country setting, in which firms choose the country of location, the level of CSR and finally compete in the market à la Bertrand. We show that: i) at equilibrium the two firms choose different levels of CSR, i.e. an "ethical" and a "neutral" firm coexist in the market; ii) regardless of its location choice, the “...
Currently a corporate web site is not considered as a necessary business attribute, but as a marketing tool which should yield results. In this study we consider a web site as an instrument for attraction of new partners (customers, suppliers). Web site outputs are a number of visitors interested in contact information (reached the contact info page) and a number of visitors who sent a request via a special form on the web site. We build a sequential discrete choice model for web site out...
He, Lin; Chen, Wei; Hoyle, Christopher; Yannou, Bernard
International audience Usage Context-Based Design (UCBD) is an area of growing interest within the design community. Usage context is the set of scenarios in which a product (or service) is to be used, including the environments in which the product is used, the types of tasks the product performs, and the conditions under which the product is purchased and operates. It is proposed in this work that in choice modeling for usage context-based design, usage context should be a part of the pr...
Carlos Giovanni González Espitia; Natalia Serna Borrero
The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on the observable and unobservable characteristics of the product and the consumer. The choice is made over the basis of maximizing utility subject to their income restrictions and, at the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions over the basis of maximizing profit. Quality is one way to differentiate products. An example of this type of differentiation happens in the TV market where several displays are developed. Our obj...
Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina
We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.
Chou, C -I
We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...
Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.
The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.
Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo
extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...
Pugh, Debra; De Champlain, Andre; Gierl, Mark; Lai, Hollis; Touchie, Claire
With the recent interest in competency-based education, educators are being challenged to develop more assessment opportunities. As such, there is increased demand for exam content development, which can be a very labor-intense process. An innovative solution to this challenge has been the use of automatic item generation (AIG) to develop multiple-choice questions (MCQs). In AIG, computer technology is used to generate test items from cognitive models (i.e. representations of the knowledge and skills that are required to solve a problem). The main advantage yielded by AIG is the efficiency in generating items. Although technology for AIG relies on a linear programming approach, the same principles can also be used to improve traditional committee-based processes used in the development of MCQs. Using this approach, content experts deconstruct their clinical reasoning process to develop a cognitive model which, in turn, is used to create MCQs. This approach is appealing because it: (1) is efficient; (2) has been shown to produce items with psychometric properties comparable to those generated using a traditional approach; and (3) can be used to assess higher order skills (i.e. application of knowledge). The purpose of this article is to provide a novel framework for the development of high-quality MCQs using cognitive models. PMID:26998566
Thiene, Mara; Boeri, Marco; Chorus, Caspar G.
This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities tha...
Pradeep K. Chintagunta
The "Lightning Bolt" (LB) model provides a comprehensive framework for accommodating the effects of habit persistence, unobserved heterogeneity, and state dependence on household brand choice behavior. This paper presents a discrete, dynamic brand-choice model that belongs to the LB class of models. We propose a method for incorporating the effects of variety seeking into the LB model formulation. The proposed formulation explicitly links brand choice and purchase timing behavior via the effe...
Wunderlich, K; Smittenaar, P.; Dolan, R J
Summary Decision making is often considered to arise out of contributions from a model-free habitual system and a model-based goal-directed system. Here, we investigated the effect of a dopamine manipulation on the degree to which either system contributes to instrumental behavior in a two-stage Markov decision task, which has been shown to discriminate model-free from model-based control. We found increased dopamine levels promote model-based over model-free choice.
Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro
In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…
Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.
Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas
Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.
Economic research offers two traditional ways of analyzing decision making under risk. One option is to compare the goodness of fit of different decision theories using the same model of stochastic choice. An alternative way is to vary models of stochastic choice combining them with only one or two decision theories. This paper proposes to look at the bigger picture by comparing different combinations of decision theories and models of stochastic choice. We select a menu of seven popular deci...
Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali
Intuitively, how we feel about potential outcomes will determine our decisions. Indeed, one of the most influential theories in psychology, Prospect Theory, implicitly assumes that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, we know very little about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we characterize a computational model that uses feelings to predict choice. We reveal that this model predicts choice better than existing value-based models, showin...
Guram N. Beltadze
Full Text Available A model of dyadic non-cooperative game Γ(H is discussed in the paper for the set of one and the same players’ strategies. The players make their choice sitting round the table and have the opportunity to coordinate only the meanings of utilities in every situation. Therefore the players’ payoffs are given by 2×2 matrixes. A notion “the equalized situation” in mixed strategies which is at the same time the equilibrium is introduced. The theorem has been proved, which establishes the conditions of existance of an equalized situation in the given game. In the case of the existence algorithm is constructed. If equalized situation doesn’t exist in the game, then there exists the equilibrium situation in the pure strategies and it is possible to find it by analysis of situations. Γ(H game’s with bimatrix Γ game in case of two players is given. The players’ conditions of optimal mixed strategies existence in Γ game is written. Relevant examples are solved and Γ(H game’s application for finite amount of players’ is discussed.
Michael Keane; Nada Wasi
A common problem in estimation of discrete choice models is that the complete choice set is very large. A good example is supermarket consumer goods, like breakfast cereal, where there are often a hundred or more varieties (SKUs or UPCs) to choose from. In that case, estimation of complex discrete choice models where choice probabilities have no closed form can be very computationally burdensome. We show how use of random subsets of the full choice set can be a useful device to reduce computa...
Rainer, Helmut; Selvaretnam, Geethanjali; Ulph, David
This paper provides a simple theoretical framework to discuss the relationship between assisted reproductive technologies and the microeconomics of fertility choice. Individuals make choices of education and work along with decisions about whether and when to have children. Decisions regarding fertility are influenced by policy and labor market factors that affect the earnings opportunities of mothers and the costs of raising children. We show how observed differences in these economic factor...
Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders
multinomial logit form but with infinitely many alternatives. The model can be consistently estimated and used for prediction in a computationally efficient way. Similarly to the path size logit model, we propose an attribute called link size that corrects utilities of overlapping paths but that is link...
Tuckman, Howard P.
This paper uses ordinary least squares regression to obtain probabilities for the post-graduation choices of high school seniors, and it presents an illustration of the use of these probabilities in calculating future income. Problems raised by the use of the least squares regression are discussed. The benefits of higher education and ways in…
Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A.; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W.
Drug addicted individuals demonstrate high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human dru...
Laura Eboli; Gabriella Mazzulla
In this paper discrete choice Logit models for measuring transit service quality are proposed. Multinomial and Mixed Logit models are used as a tool for evaluating the importance of the different transit service aspects on the overall service quality. Particularly, Mixed Logit models are proposed in order to take into account the heterogeneity of perceptions across individuals. The models were calibrated on the basis of Stated Preferences choice experiments, in which decision makers...
Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany
Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq’s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users’ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ar...
This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences the performance outcomes for both manufacturers and retailers in several consumer packaged goods (CPG) categories. The second essay investigates the impact of consumers’ decision making processes o...
C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry
This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made. The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...
Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne
We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…
de Marneffe, Marie-Catherine; Grimm, Scott; Arnon, Inbal; Kirby, Susannah; Bresnan, Joan
Focusing on children's production of the dative alternation in English, we examine whether children's choices are influenced by the same factors that influence adults' choices, and whether, like adults, they are sensitive to multiple factors simultaneously. We do so by using mixed-effect regression models to analyse child and child-directed…
De Blasi, Pierpaolo; Lau, John W; 10.3150/09-BEJ233
This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random utility maximization, subject to the identification of an unknown distribution $G$. Noting the mixture model description of the MMNL, we employ a Bayesian nonparametric approach, using nonparametric priors on the unknown mixing distribution $G$, to estimate choice probabilities. We provide an important theoretical support for the use of the proposed methodology by investigating consistency of the posterior distribution for a general nonparametric prior on the mixing distribution. Consistency is defined according to an $L_1$-type distance on the space of choice probabilities and is achieved by extending to a regression model framework a recent approach to strong consistency based on the summability of square roots of prior probabilities. Moving to estimation, slightly different te...
Christian Borghesi; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et...
Pradeep K. Chintagunta
The multinomial probit model of brand choice is theoretically appealing for marketing applications as it is free from the “independence of irrelevant alternatives” property of the multinomial logit model. However, difficulties in estimation have restricted its widespread use in marketing. This paper presents an application of the method of simulated moments, a new methodology that enables easy estimation of probit models with a large number of alternatives in the choice set. We describe the t...
Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping
The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in California. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modeling vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. T...
Rodríguez Donaire, Silvia
In this paper we study the link between business model set of choices and the way these choices and the resulting business model configuration influence its behaviour, including the consequences. In particular, we study social capital formation as a potential outcome of the business model configuration. Social capital is an important resource that might contribute to the firm sustainability. A conceptual framework is developed. In this preliminary study we have applied it to a real situati...
Joachim Vandekerckhove, Extensions and applications of the diffu sion model for two-choice response times. Dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology, April 2009. Promoter: Prof. Dr. F. Tuerlinckx. Two-choice response time data (2CRT) is one of the most common formats o f empirical data in experimental psychology. Unfortunately, such data do not adhere to the requirements of standard statistical models (such as the general linear model). The main goa...
Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan
We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing information on the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We estimate the model for five types of teen discrete choice behavior: smoking, truan...
Heshmati, Almas; Firas H. Al-Hammadany
Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq¡¯s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users¡¯ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ...
Bertuccelli, Luca F.; Pellegrino, Nicholas A.; Cummings, M.L.
This paper addresses human decision-making in supervisory control of a team of unmanned vehicles performing search missions. Previous work has proposed the use of a two-alternative choice framework, in which operators declare the presence or absence of a target in an image. It has been suggested that relooking at a target at some later time can help operators improve the accuracy of their decisions but it is not well understood how - or how well - operators handle this relook task with multip...
Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars
During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV......-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and...
Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars
During the past 30 years, Eccles? comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV......-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students? educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students? considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and...
Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars
During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.
Copenhagen – like most other major cities – is facing problems with congestion, (especially) related to commuting in dense urban areas, in which the demand is condensed in peak-hours (Mahmassani, 2000; The Forum of Municipalities, 2008). A number of studies have shown that people are more likely ...... of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen, 1991), in which Intention act as a mediator between the underlying latent factors (attitude, norms, and perception). It was found that the psychological factors not only influenced the choice but also individual preferences....... previously been neglected by nearly all studies within departure time. More importantly it shows that the underlying psychological processes are more complex than simply accounting for attitudes and perceptions which are typically used in other areas. The work in this PhD thesis accounts for the full Theory...
Brownstone, David; Bunch, David S.; Golob, Thomas F.; Ren, Weiping
The vehicle choice model developed here is one component in a mlcro-slmulatlon demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by vehicle type and geographic area in Cahforma. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by ume of day for electric vehicles. The choice model specification differs from past studies by directly modehng vehicle transactions rather than vehlcle holdings. The m...
Oppewal, H Harmen; Timmermans, HJP Harry; Louviere, JJ Jordan
In this paper it is argued that models of consumer choice of shopping destination have included few attributes related to the selection of stores available in a shopping centre. The authors seek to develop and illustrate empirically a way to define the selection of stores in shopping centres, such that effects of various modifications to the available selection can be modelled by conjoint analysis (or stated preference of decompositional choice) methods. Profiles of hypothetical shopping cent...
A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.
Provance, Mike, E-mail: email@example.com [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)
Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.
Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.
La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta;
The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related to the...... individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours and the...
Matthew T. Cole
There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. However, these models tend to rely heavily on symmetry assumptions and assume melting iceberg transport costs as the only form of trade restrictions. Moreover, a standard assumption is that firms differ across marginal cost, yet empirical evidence suggests this is not the only important source of heterogeneity. I provide a highly tractable model, in whic...
de la Torre, Jimmy
Cognitive or skills diagnosis models are discrete latent variable models developed specifically for the purpose of identifying the presence or absence of multiple fine-grained skills. However, applications of these models typically involve dichotomous or dichotomized data, including data from multiple-choice (MC) assessments that are scored as…
Brown, Scott D.; Heathcote, Andrew
We propose a linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model of decision making and reaction time. The LBA is simpler than other models of choice response time, with independent accumulators that race towards a common response threshold. Activity in the accumulators increases in a linear and deterministic manner. The simplicity of the model allows…
Banerjee, Ipsita; Kanafani, Adib
Deployment of advanced technologies has enabled wireless internet access for commuters on various transportation modes. Such networked environments have enabled riders to engage in productive activities in transit. The ability to perform activities while traveling, especially paid work, may significantly affect the value of travel time (VOTT), with potential impacts on mode choice and commute patterns. In this study, we develop a model of the VOTT grounded in utility theory and activity choic...
Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Park, Timothy A.; BILGIC, Abdulbaki
In selecting a marketing channel for fresh peach sales, Georgia commercial peach growers choose the channel after accounting for buyers' preferences for quality attributes. Using the polychotomous selection model and survey data we identified external and internal quality attributes as essential factors influencing the choice of a marketing channel and the share of the crop marketed. Other factors influencing the choice and the volume sold through each marketing channel included orchard chara...
Richard V. Burkhauser; Butler, J. S.; Yang-Woo Kim
We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. We correct for choice-based sampling by extending the Manski-Lerman (1977) correction to the likelihood function of our continuous time hazard model defined with semiparametric unmeasured het...
Pradeep K. Chintagunta; Nair, Harikesh S.
Marketing researchers have used models of consumer demand to forecast future sales, to describe and test theories of behavior, and to measure the response to marketing interventions. The basic framework typically starts from microfoundations of expected utility theory to obtain an econometric system that describes consumers' choices over available options, and to thus characterize product demand. The basic framework has been augmented significantly to account for quantity choices, to accommod...
Travel demand forecasting is essential for many decisions, such as infrastructure investments and policy measures. Traditionally travel demand modelling has considered trip frequency, mode, destination and route choice. This thesis considers two other choice dimensions, hypothesised to have implications for travel demand forecasting. The first part investigates how the increased possibilities to overcome space that ICT (information and communication technology) provides, can be integrated in ...
van Duijn, Mark; Rouwendal, Jan
Local amenities are an important factor in the location choice of households. Heterogeneity in preferences of households tends to sort households over different locations which satisfy best their preferences given their constraints. In this paper, we analyze the effect of cultural heritage on the location choice of households using a residential sorting model. Cultural heritage is often a determining factor of the specific atmosphere of a location and is valued as such by its residents. Since...
Weeks, Melvyn; Orne, Chris
The authors demonstrate the conditions under which the bivariate probit model can be considered a special case of the more general multinomial probit model. Since the attendant parameter restrictions produce a singular covariance matrix, the subsequent problems of testing on the boundary of the parameter space are circumvented by the construction of a score test.
Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.
Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit
Nordyke, Alison Michelle
The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…
Die vorliegende Arbeit besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die sich mit der Modellierung von Markenwahlverhalten und Markentreue beschäftigen. Der erste Aufsatz gibt eine Einführung in das Nested Logit Modell und weist auf die Existenz von zwei unterschiedlichen Spezifikationen hin. Das utility maximization nested logit (UMNL) und das non-normalized nested logit (NNNL) Modell besitzen unterschiedliche Eigenschaften, die die Schätzergebnisse beeinflussen. Mit einer Simulationsstudie werden die Konsequ...
Dagsvik, John K.
Preface: The econometric discipline has been criticized for being too similar to mathematical statistics and only to a limited degree linked to formalized theoretical models. This is particularly the case as regards formulation and specification of the stochastic elements in econometric models. Ragnar Frisch, who is known to be the originator of econometrics, expressed both in theory and practice an opposite ideal; namely econometrics as an almost symbiotic blend of statistical...
Konovalov, Arkady; Krajbich, Ian
Organisms appear to learn and make decisions using different strategies known as model-free and model-based learning; the former is mere reinforcement of previously rewarded actions and the latter is a forward-looking strategy that involves evaluation of action-state transition probabilities. Prior work has used neural data to argue that both model-based and model-free learners implement a value comparison process at trial onset, but model-based learners assign more weight to forward-looking computations. Here using eye-tracking, we report evidence for a different interpretation of prior results: model-based subjects make their choices prior to trial onset. In contrast, model-free subjects tend to ignore model-based aspects of the task and instead seem to treat the decision problem as a simple comparison process between two differentially valued items, consistent with previous work on sequential-sampling models of decision making. These findings illustrate a problem with assuming that experimental subjects make their decisions at the same prescribed time. PMID:27511383
Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela
Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices." PMID:26906343
Raykov, Tenko; Zajacova, Anna
An interval estimation procedure for proportion of explained observed variance in latent curve analysis is discussed, which can be used as an aid in the process of choosing between linear and nonlinear models. The method allows obtaining confidence intervals for the R[squared] indexes associated with repeatedly followed measures in longitudinal…
Ostasiewicz, K; Magnuszewski, P; Radosz, A; Sendzimir, J; Tyc, M H; Goliczewski, Piotr; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Sendzimir, Jan; Tyc, Michal H.
We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximation is developed. It is shown that within a mean-field approach both the utility function and the impact function models are equivalent to threshold models. The interplay between heterogeneity and randomness in model formulation is discussed. A general framework is applied in a number of examples leading to some well-known models but also showing the possibility of more complex dynamics related to multiple equilibria. Our synthesis can provide a basis for many practical applications extending the scope of binary choice models.
Bertuccelli, Luca F.; Cummings, M.L.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide unprecedented access to imagery of possible ground targets of interest in real time. The availability of this imagery is expected to increase with envisaged future missions of one operator controlling multiple UAVs. This research investigates decision models that can be used to develop assistive decision support for UAV operators involved in these complex search missions. Previous human-in-the-loop experiments have shown that operator detection probabil...
Bolt, Daniel M.; Wollack, James A.; Suh, Youngsuk
Nested logit models have been presented as an alternative to multinomial logistic models for multiple-choice test items (Suh and Bolt in "Psychometrika" 75:454-473, 2010) and possess a mathematical structure that naturally lends itself to evaluating the incremental information provided by attending to distractor selection in scoring. One potential…
Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.
The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…
Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.
The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...
A.R. Soetevent; P. Kooreman
We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation
17 pages An abstraction of normal form games is proposed, called Feasibility/Desirability Games (or FD Games in short). FD Games can be seen from three points of view: as a new presentation of games in which Nash equilibria can be found, as choice models in microeconomics or as a model of evolution in games.
Hula, William D.; Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Martin, Nadine
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the most appropriate item response theory (IRT) measurement model for aphasia tests requiring 2-choice responses and to determine whether small samples are adequate for estimating such models. Method: Pyramids and Palm Trees (Howard & Patterson, 1992) test data that had been collected from…
Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan
We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info
Anderson, Marie Karen
/egress characteristics, waiting time, in-vehicle travel time, and transfer characteristics. Moreover, travellers’ characteristics and trip purposes enrich the model and provide insight into the preference structures of different travellers with different motivations for travelling, and finally the study indicates that......The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...... to increase their attractiveness with respect to the car. Accordingly, this PhD thesis faces the multi-faceted challenge of modelling route choices of travellers moving in a metropolitan multimodal network. The analysis focuses on revealed preferences data collected for the multimodal network of the...
Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam
This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable. PMID:25460097
A variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods. This paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent ''energy technology investment paradox''. The applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems, such as sunk costs, uncertainty and imperfect information. The theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, and the theory of irreversible investment. Enhanced net present value methods are also considered. (author)
Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. (author)
Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.
Adler, Jeffrey L.; Golob, Thomas F.; McNally, Michael G.
Increasing efforts in Advanced Traveler Information Systems has emphasized the need to develop more robust models of enroute driver behavior. The complexity in modeling driver behavior stems from the need to capture the day-to-day dynamics of choice, model diversion and active information acquisition, and account for individual preferences and needs. Previous papers by the authors discussed a conflict arousal methodology for modeling driver behavior in the presence of real-time information. I...
Crossley, T.F.; McDonald, J. T.; Worswick, C.
Receipt of unemployment insurance by immigrant men and social assistance by immigrant families are analysed using thirteen surveys from Canada. Estimates from a cohort fixed effects model are found to be sensitive to the choice of survey years. This is due to the mis-specification of the fixed effects model which is rejected when tested against a model allowing for separate year-since-migration effects by arrival cohort. The estimates from the more general model provide little evidence of hig...
Timmermans, HJP Harry; Heijden, van der, C.A.M.; Westerveld, J Hans
In this paper the authors are concerned with the application of conjoint measurement models to predict consumer choice of shopping centres. First, conjoint measurement models are discussed in the context of the development of spatial shopping-models. Next, the conceptual framework underlying the model and conjoint measurement are discussed. The second part of the paper describes an application of the methodology. Conjoint measurement is used to estimate consumer utility functions and a multiv...
Garcia, Pablo M
It is usual to estimate willingness-to-pay in discrete choice models through Logit models –or their expanded versions-. Nevertheless, these models have very restrictive distributional assumptions. This paper is intended to examine the above mentioned issue and to propose an alternative estimation using semi-parametric techniques (through Simple Index Models). Furthermore, this paper introduces an empirical application of willingness-to-pay for improved subway travel times in the City of Bueno...
Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O.K. Rahmat
This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds) we...
Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás
was the link between discrete choice and welfare, which established a basis for applying RUM to public policy analysis, and paved the way for the plethora of applications which have been witnessed over the last 30 years. It will be helpful to clarify precisely what we mean by ‘discrete choice’, since......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis in...
University of California, Berkeley; Addy, Nathan; Kiliccote, Sila; Mathieu, Johanna; Callaway, Duncan S.
Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.
The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...
Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
not account for individual-related spatiotemporal constraints. This paper reduces the gap by proposing a route choice model incorporating spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits. The proposed approach combines stochastic route generation with a latent variable semi-compensatory model representing...
This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage
Ladr??n de Guevara, Antonio
This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers that discount the future. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model is further extended by considering a utility function that allows for the different types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia, pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys ...
Ojala, Arto; Tyrväinen, Pasi
So far the critical choice of the entry mode for a target country has been examined ignoring the special features of firms. Particularly, the impact of the wide variation of business models of software firms has been ignored. This multi-case study investigates the relation between the business model and the entry mode of eight software firms. The results imply that the product strategy and the service and implementation model of a software firm are closely connected to the entr...
Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.
Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298. ISSN 0002-8282 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.673, year: 2014
Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.
Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298. ISSN 0002-8282 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP402/11/P236 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.673, year: 2014
Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo;
advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...
Yong Hyun Shin
Full Text Available We propose a regime switching model of schooling choice as a job search process. We adopt a two-state Markov process and the derived coupled Bellman equations are solved by seeking the root of an auxiliary algebraic equation. Some numerical examples are also considered.
Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.
The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…
M. Filko (Martin)
markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954).
Gine, Xavier; Townsend, Robert M.
The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the...
Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.
Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar
Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M
Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar
Biswal, M. P.; Acharya, S.
This article develops a multi-choice multi-objective linear programming model in order to solve an integrated production planning problem of a steel plant. The aim of the integrated production planning problem is to integrate the planning sub-functions into a single planning operation. The sub-functions are formulated by considering the capacity of different units of the plant, cost of raw materials from various territories, demands of customers in different geographical locations, time constraint for delivery the products, production cost and production rate at different stages of production process. Departure cost is also considered in the formulation of mathematical programming model. Some of the parameters are decided from a set of possible choices, therefore such parameters are considered as multi-choice type. Multi-choice mathematical programming problem cannot be solved directly. Therefore an equivalent multi-objective mathematical programming model is established in order to find the optimal solution of the problem. Computation of the mathematical programming model is performed with the practical production data of a plant to study the methodology.
Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B
This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.
Choice between semi-parametric estimators of Markov and non-Markov multi-state models from coarsened observations : Choice between semi-parametric estimators of Markov and non-Markov multi-state models
Commenges, Daniel; Joly, Pierre; Gégout-Petit, Anne; Liquet, Benoit
We consider models based on multivariate counting processes, including multi-state models. These models are specified semi-parametrically by a set of functions and real parameters. We consider inference for these models based on coarsened observations, focusing on families of smooth estimators such as produced by penalized likelihood. An important issue is the choice of model structure, for instance the choice between a Markov and some non-Markov models. We define in a general context the exp...
Blackwell, Christopher W
A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed. PMID:19042903
Phillips, C V
An important step toward improving nutrition and promoting vegetarianism in the general population is to understand how consumers make dietary choices. Researchers from many clinical and social sciences are interested in dietary choice but have not combined their research into a comprehensive model to explain consumer actions. No one model has offered a good explanation for the fact that, although many people successfully change their diet significantly (often toward health-improving, plant-based diets) and are happy with the change, the public and health professionals often perceive dietary change as being difficult and unlikely to succeed. I have termed these observations "the paradox of dietary change." The present computer model uses the emerging science of complex systems analysis, which offers an intuitive method for studying evidence about dietary choice from many fields, including public health, clinical science, economics, sociology, marketing, and genetics, and for combining individual choice with social interaction. The results suggest an explanation for the paradox and methods for helping society shift toward healthier and more plant-based diets. In particular, they suggest how and why major changes might be easier to make than incremental ones, and why this makes dietary change seem more difficult to consumers than it actually is. PMID:10479239
Borghesi, C; Borghesi, Christian; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
We propose a generic model for multiple choice situations in the presence of herding and compare it with recent empirical results from a Web-based music market experiment. The model predicts a phase transition between a weak imitation phase and a strong imitation, `fashion' phase, where choices are driven by peer pressure and the ranking of individual preferences is strongly distorted at the aggregate level. The model can be calibrated to reproduce the main experimental results of Salganik et al. (Science, 311, pp. 854-856 (2006)); we show in particular that the value of the social influence parameter can be estimated from the data. In one of the experimental situation, this value is found to be close to the critical value of the model.
Hirschi, Andreas; Läge, Damian
Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an incre...
Kasia Mazur; Jeff Bennett
The survey was designed to estimate environmental values suitable for integration into MOSAIC, a bio-economic model for catchment and farm level planning. Local residents, as well as distant rural and distant urban communities, were surveyed in three NSW catchments (Lachlan, Namoi and Hawkesbury-Nepean) using choice modelling (CM). The survey aimed to find out respondents’ attitudes about, and preferences for, potential natural resource management (NRM) improvements. In total, 3,997 responses...
Zou, Ning Ning (Helen); Hobbs, Jill E.
This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (probiotic yogurt) and regular food (regular yogurt) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different ...
Zou, Ning Ning (Helen)
This paper examines the reference-dependent and labelling effects when consumers make choices about functional foods, and explores how changes in reference points could alter individuals’ preferences. Functional food (Omega 3 milk) and regular food (regular milk) are used as examples to explore the potential reference-dependent effects and labelling effects. A consumer utility model with reference point effects is developed. The paper also explores how to model the effects of different labell...
Randolph E. Bucklin; James M. Lattin
The authors develop and test a probabilistic model of purchase incidence and brand choice for frequently purchased consumer products. The model incorporates two ways of shopping in a category. Shoppers who have planned their purchasing (made a decision before entering the store) do not process in-store information and show no response to point-of-purchase promotions. Consumers who have not planned their purchasing in a category (deciding at the point of purchase) may process in-store informat...
Adriaan R. Soetevent; Kooreman, Peter
We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze the individual behavior of some 8000 high school teenagers from almost 500 different school classes. We find endogenous social interaction ...
Verdonck, Stijn; Meers, Kristof; Tuerlinckx, Francis
In this paper, we present software for the efficient simulation of a broad class of linear and nonlinear diffusion models for choice RT, using either CPU or graphical processing unit (GPU) technology. The software is readily accessible from the popular scripting languages MATLAB and R (both 64-bit). The speed obtained on a single high-end GPU is comparable to that of a small CPU cluster, bringing standard statistical inference of complex diffusion models to the desktop platform. PMID:25761391
Grace, Randolph C
Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. PMID:27150444
Grace, Randolph C
Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. PMID:27005579
Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen
Full Text Available This study is pioneer in investigating mode-choice behavior of inter-city traveler for non-business trips in Libya, for this we have successfully developed and validated disaggregate behavioral inter-city non-business travel mode choice model, based on a binary logit structure. Four major inter-city corridors in Libya were the source of the data required for the development of the model. Data was collected based on interviews with 576 respondents. Majority of these data (nearly two-thirds were used for calibrating the model, whereas, the remaining data were used for validating the model. This study, which is the first of its kind in Libya, investigates the intercity traveler’s mode-choice behavior for non-business trips. The proposed model elucidates car/air transport users’ behavior and investigates their responses to the scenario of enhancing intercity transport. We have also investigated the prospect of car drivers shifting to air transport, based on a case of a diminution in airplane out-of-vehicle travel time (access time to airport, waiting time at airport and egress time from airport. We deem that the findings of this study will facilitate all the levels of decision-makers to sensibly allocate resources for the enhancement of air transportation
Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.
Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.
Oaks, Jamie R.
Background To understand biological diversification, it is important to account for large-scale processes that affect the evolutionary history of groups of co-distributed populations of organisms. Such events predict temporally clustered divergences times, a pattern that can be estimated using genetic data from co-distributed species. I introduce a new approximate-Bayesian method for comparative phylogeographical model-choice that estimates the temporal distribution of divergences across taxa...
The basic model of residential choice, which has been established by generalizing Von Thünen's concept to an urban context, states that the equilibrium structure of residential land use is determined by the trade-off between accessibility and space. The willingness to sacrifice space for accessibility differs between households and depends on household income. The equilibrium land use is the outcome of the interplay between the income elasticity of space consumption and the income elasticity ...
Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.
Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...
Donaghy, Peter; Rolfe, John; Bennett, Jeffrey W.
Issues concerning consumer demands for genetically modified and organic food remain highly topical in Australia. It is unclear how consumers perceive issues associated with food production such as food safety, environmental impacts or animal welfare. It is also unclear how consumers might value potential changes in those issues. This paper reports on research using the choice modelling technique to estimate and compare consumer demand for genetically modified and organic foods. The case study...
markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). It advised – and expected – reasonable actors to evaluate the consequences of their actions by the weighted sum of their utility, using probabilities of these consequences as weights. Utilities wer...
In this paper we analyze the decision of "working" versus "not working" within a discrete choice framework, where number of available jobs is confined and related to individual characteristics. In this way the market constraint from the demand side is taken into account. We also accommodate the notion of job specific non-pecuniary attributes in the specification of preferences. We apply panel data to estimate the model. To this end a particular estimation method is developed that accounts for...
Statistical tolerance limits are estimates of large (or small) quantiles of a distribution, quantities which are very sensitive to the shape of the tail of the distribution. The exact nature of this tail behavior cannot be ascertained brom small samples, so statistical tolerance limits are frequently computed using a statistical model chosen on the basis of theoretical considerations or prior experience with similar populations. This report illustrates the effects of such choices on the computations
Charles E. Cunningham; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D.; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P.; Bracken, Keyna; ,
Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtua...
Feng Yu-qin; Leng Jun-qiang; Xie Zhong-Yu; Zhang Gui-e; He Yi
This paper aims at testing the influence of emission factors on travelers’ behavior of route choice. The generalized travel cost is defined as the linear weighted sum of emission factors, travel time, and travel time reliability. The relational model of exhaust volume and traffic volume is established using the BPR (Bureau of Public Road) function to calculate the cost of travel regarding emission. The BPR function is used to measure the road segment travel time, while the reliability is used...
Galassi, Veronica; Madlener, Reinhard
The future diffusion of photovoltaic systems relies heavily on the ability of utilities and policy-makers to properly valorize such volatile renewable energy-sources technologies. We conduct a discrete choice experiment to investigate which types of business models for photovoltaic systems could bring the highest utility to the Italian households. Our focus is not just on the costs and benefits of a photovoltaic system, but also on features like system control and maintenance, the duration of...
Rouwendal, Jan; Pommer, John
In this paper we develop and estimate a discrete-continuous model for car ownership and use that incorporates quality choice and the decision to own multiple cars. The basic model, used for instance in De Jong (1991), treats all cars as being equal (no differences in quality) and only considers ownership of a single car. In order to introduce quality into the model we assume that the marginal utility of driving is increased by a latent variable (interpreted as quality) that is related to the ...
Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL
This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.
Jonathan D. Ketcham; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Powers, Christopher A.
Neoclassical and psychological models of consumer behavior often make divergent predictions for the welfare effects of paternalistic policies, leaving wide scope for researchers’ choice of a model to influence their policy conclusions. We develop a framework to reduce this model uncertainty and apply it to administrative data on consumer decision making in Medicare Part D. Consumers’ choices for prescription drug insurance plans can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber’s (AER 2011) model of uti...
del Río, Ana Fernández
The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...
Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.
Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen
A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)
Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.
Dmitry V. Sein
Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the
Nataša Slak Valek
Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.
Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.
A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.
Alejandra Mizala; Pilar Romaguera; Carolina Ostoic
The aim of this paper is to analyze, using a hierarchical linear model, the degree to which a system of choice, as the one implemented in Chile since the beginning of the 80’s, can promote student achievement and equity in the social distribution of achievement. Using data from a standardized achievement test including 226,860 4tth degree students and 4,949 schools, we investigate the association between students’ socioeconomic status and achievement, within and between schools. We also inves...
Descriptions, documentation, and other information are included in these appendices dealing with industrial fuel choices: Energy Consumption Data Base; Major Fuel Burning Installation Survey; American Boiler Manufacturers Association Data File; Midrange Energy Forecasting System; Projection Method; Capacity Utilization Rates; Nonboiler Characteristics; Boiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Nonboiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Approach to Estimating Energy Impacts of the Coal Conversion Regulatory Program; Index or Acronyms.
Eric S. SCHWARTZ
Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.
V.,; Lacey, C G; Baugh, C M; Lagos, C D P; Helly, J; Campbell, D J R
We present a new release of the GALFORM semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution, which exploits a Millennium Simulation-class N-body run performed with the WMAP7 cosmology. We use this new model to study the impact of the choice of stellar population synthesis (SPS) model on the predicted evolution of the galaxy luminosity function. The semi-analytical model is run using seven different SPS models. In each case we obtain the rest-frame luminosity function in the far-ultra-violet, optical and near-infrared (NIR) wavelength ranges. We find that both the predicted rest-frame ultra-violet and optical luminosity function are insensitive to the choice of SPS model. However, we find that the predicted evolution of the rest-frame NIR luminosity function depends strongly on the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) stellar phase in the SPS models, with differences larger than a factor of 2 for model galaxies brighter than K(AB)-5logh<-22 (about L* for 0 < z < 1....
Dahirel, Maxime; Vardakis, Michalis; Ansart, Armelle; Madec, Luc
Dispersal movements, i.e. movements leading to gene flow, are key behaviours with important, but only partially understood, consequences for the dynamics and evolution of populations. In particular, density-dependent dispersal has been widely described, yet how it is determined by the interaction with individual traits, and whether density effects differ between the three steps of dispersal (departure, transience, and settlement), remains largely unknown. Using a semi-natural landscape, we studied dispersal choices of Cornu aspersum land snails, a species in which negative effects of crowding are well documented, and analysed them using dispersal discrete choice models, a new method allowing the analysis of dispersal decisions by explicitly considering the characteristics of all available alternatives and their interaction with individual traits. Subadults were more dispersive than adults, confirming existing results. In addition, departure and settlement were both density dependent: snails avoided crowded patches at both ends of the dispersal process, and subadults were more reluctant to settle into crowded patches than adults. Moreover, we found support for carry-over effects of release density on subsequent settlement decisions: snails from crowded contexts were more sensitive to density in their subsequent immigration choices. The fact that settlement decisions were informed indicates that costs of prospecting are not as important as previously thought in snails, and/or that snails use alternative ways to collect information, such as indirect social information (e.g. trail following). The observed density-dependent dispersal dynamics may play an important role in the ability of C. aspersum to successfully colonise frequently human-disturbed habitats around the world. PMID:27139427
Cunningham, Charles E; Barwick, Melanie; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne; Rimas, Heather; Ratcliffe, Jenna; Mielko, Stephanie
Schools are sometimes slow to adopt evidence-based strategies for improving the mental health outcomes of students. This study used a discrete-choice conjoint experiment to model factors influencing the decision of educators to adopt strategies for improving children's mental health outcomes. A sample of 1,010 educators made choices between hypothetical mental health practice change strategies composed by systematically varying the four levels of 16 practice change attributes. Latent class analysis yielded two segments with different practice change preferences. Both segments preferred small-group workshops, conducted by engaging experts, teaching skills applicable to all students. Participants expressed little interest in Internet options. The support of colleagues, administrators, and unions exerted a strong influence on the practice change choices of both segments. The Change Ready segment, 77.1 % of the sample, was more intent on adopting new strategies to improve the mental health of students. They preferred that schools, rather than the provincial ministry of education, make practice change decisions, coaching was provided to all participants, and participants received post-training follow-up sessions. The Demand Sensitive segment (22.9 %) was less intent on practice change. They preferred that individual teachers make practice change decisions, recommended discretionary coaching, and chose no post-training follow-up support. This study emphasizes the complex social, organizational, and policy context within which educators make practice change decisions. Efforts to disseminate strategies to improve the mental health outcomes of students need to be informed by the preferences of segments of educators who are sensitive to different dimensions of the practice change process. In the absence of a broad consensus of educators, administrators, and unions, potentially successful practice changes are unlikely to be adopted. PMID:24563679
Dorazio, Robert M
In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. PMID:18051646
In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.
Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.
This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.
Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G
The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. PMID:26143092
Yeh, Robert S.
To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…
Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H.; McMahon, J. E.
This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.
Cunningham, Charles E; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne
We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally varied combinations of the study's attribute levels. Latent class analysis yielded three segments with different preferences. Decision Sensitive educators (31%) preferred that individual schools select bullying prevention programs. In contrast, Support Sensitive educators (51%) preferred that local school boards chose bullying prevention programs. This segment preferred more logistical and social support at every stage of the adoption, training, implementation, and long term maintenance processes. Cost Sensitive educators (16%) showed a stronger preference for programs minimizing costs, training, and implementation time demands. They felt prevention programs were less effective and that the time and space in the curriculum for bullying prevention was less adequate. They were less likely to believe that bullying prevention was their responsibility and more likely to agree that prevention was the responsibility of parents. All segments preferred programs supported by the anecdotal reports of colleagues from other schools rather than those based on scientific evidence. To ensure that the bullying prevention options available reflect the complex combination of attributes influencing real world adoption decisions, program developers need to accommodate the differing views of the Decision, Support, and Cost Sensitive segments while maximizing the support of parents and students. PMID:19455413
Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.
Straub, Matthew O.; Thomassin, Paul J.
Consumer concerns in food purchasing contain a number of elements, including food safety, environment, animal welfare, and other social issues. The purpose of this study was to examine consumer perceptions of the potential benefits of products that are produced using an environmental management system (EMS) in agriculture, and to identify those factors that influence choice. The choice modeling technique uses consumer responses (preferences) to estimate Montrealers= willingness to pay (WTP) f...
Klaus Moeltner; Johnston, Robert J.; Rosenberger, Randall S.
This study proposes a new approach to utilize information from existing choice experiments to predict policy outcomes for a transfer setting. Recognizing the difficulties from pooling raw data from experiments with different designs and sub-populations we first re-estimate all underlying Random Utility Models individually, and then combine them in a second stage process to form a weighted mixture density for the generation of policy-relevant welfare estimates. Using data from recent choice ex...
Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.
Worbe, Y; Palminteri, S; Savulich, G; Daw, N D; Fernandez-Egea, E; Robbins, T W; Voon, V
Human decision-making arises from both reflective and reflexive mechanisms, which underpin goal-directed and habitual behavioural control. Computationally, these two systems of behavioural control have been described by different learning algorithms, model-based and model-free learning, respectively. Here, we investigated the effect of diminished serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) neurotransmission using dietary tryptophan depletion (TD) in healthy volunteers on the performance of a two-stage decision-making task, which allows discrimination between model-free and model-based behavioural strategies. A novel version of the task was used, which not only examined choice balance for monetary reward but also for punishment (monetary loss). TD impaired goal-directed (model-based) behaviour in the reward condition, but promoted it under punishment. This effect on appetitive and aversive goal-directed behaviour is likely mediated by alteration of the average reward representation produced by TD, which is consistent with previous studies. Overall, the major implication of this study is that serotonin differentially affects goal-directed learning as a function of affective valence. These findings are relevant for a further understanding of psychiatric disorders associated with breakdown of goal-directed behavioural control such as obsessive-compulsive disorders or addictions. PMID:25869808
Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng
The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.
Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat
Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J
The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning. PMID:25090423
Manzini, Paola; Mariotti, Marco
We propose a theory of choices that are influenced by the psychological state of the agent. The central hypothesis is that the psychological state controls the urgency of the attributes sought by the decision maker in the available alternatives. While state dependent choice is less restricted than rational choice, our model does have empirical content, expressed by simple ‘revealed preference’ type of constraints on observable choice data. We demonstrate the applicability of simple versions o...
This exploratory study examines the communication media choice of managers. Despite a substantial body of theories on media choice, inadequacies are apparent in the literature particularly in relation to modem communication technologies. A field study approach was adopted to explore some of these inadequacies and to study the media choice of subject from a manager background. Overall, within the limitations and confines of this exploratory study, this thesis has made the following contributio...
Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.
We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…
Hirschi, Andreas; Lage, Damian
Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision making (CDM), a six-phase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tests the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career-choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. Two hundred sixty-six…
Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO2 emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: → We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. → Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. → External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. → Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.
Ratcliff, Roger; Van Dongen, Hans P A
One-choice reaction-time (RT) tasks are used in many domains, including assessments of motor vehicle driving and assessments of the cognitive/behavioral consequences of sleep deprivation. In such tasks, subjects are asked to respond when they detect the onset of a stimulus; the dependent variable is RT. We present a cognitive model for one-choice RT tasks that uses a one-boundary diffusion process to represent the accumulation of stimulus information. When the accumulated evidence reaches a decision criterion, a response is initiated. This model is distinct in accounting for the RT distributions observed for one-choice RT tasks, which can have long tails that have not been accurately captured by earlier cognitive modeling approaches. We show that the model explains performance on a brightness-detection task (a "simple RT task") and on a psychomotor vigilance test. The latter is used extensively to examine the clinical and behavioral effects of sleep deprivation. For the brightness-detection task, the model explains the behavior of RT distributions as a function of brightness. For the psychomotor vigilance test, it accounts for lapses in performance under conditions of sleep deprivation and for changes in the shapes of RT distributions over the course of sleep deprivation. The model also successfully maps the rate of accumulation of stimulus information onto independently derived predictions of alertness. The model is a unified, mechanistic account of one-choice RT under conditions of sleep deprivation. PMID:21690336
Yangui, Ahmed1; Font, Montserrat Costa; Gil, José María
Due to the increasing interest on understanding the formation of consumer’s food choice process, the hybrid choice model (HCM) has been developed. HCM represents a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with structural equations models (SEM) for latent variables (LV). Regardless of their conceptual appeal, up to date the application of HCM in agro food marketing remains very scarce. The present work extends previous HCM applications by first estimating a random parame...
Jolivette, Kristine; McCormick, Katherine; McLaren, Elizabeth; Steed, Elizabeth A.
The provision of choice making is frequently cited as an indicator of developmentally appropriate practice for young children with and without disabilities; however, there is little empirical evidence regarding the rate of delivery of choices within the preschool classroom. The delivery of intervention strategies by a classroom-based…
Full Text Available As for terrestrial remote sensing, pixel-based classifiers have traditionally been used to map coral reef habitats. For pixel-based classifiers, habitat assignment is based on the spectral or textural properties of each individual pixel in the scene. More recently, however, object-based classifications, those based on information from a set of contiguous pixels with similar properties, have found favor with the reef mapping community and are starting to be extensively deployed. Object-based classifiers have an advantage over pixel-based in that they are less compromised by the inevitable inhomogeneity in per-pixel spectral response caused, primarily, by variations in water depth. One aspect of the object-based classification workflow is the assignment of each image object to a habitat class on the basis of its spectral, textural, or geometric properties. While a skilled image interpreter can achieve this task accurately through manual editing, full or partial automation is desirable for large-scale reef mapping projects of the magnitude which are useful for marine spatial planning. To this end, this paper trials the use of multinomial logistic discrete choice models to classify coral reef habitats identified through object-based segmentation of satellite imagery. Our results suggest that these models can attain assignment accuracies of about 85%, while also reducing the time needed to produce the map, as compared to manual methods. Limitations of this approach include misclassification of image objects at the interface between some habitat types due to the soft gradation in nature between habitats, the robustness of the segmentation algorithm used, and the selection of a strong training dataset. Finally, due to the probabilistic nature of multinomial logistic models, the analyst can estimate a map of uncertainty associated with the habitat classifications. Quantifying uncertainty is important to the end-user when developing marine spatial
Ren, W.; Brownstone, D.; Bunch, D.S.; Golob, T.F.
A discrete choice model has been developed in which the choice alternatives consist of vehicle transactions rather than portfolios of vehicle holdings. The model is based on responses to customized stated preference questions involving both hypothetical future vehicles and the household`s current vehicle holdings. The stated choices were collected from 4747 survey respondents located throughout most of the urbanized portions of California. Respondents were asked what their next vehicle transaction would most likely be (replace a current vehicle, add another vehicle, or dispose of a current vehicle), and respondents who wanted to replace or add vehicles were asked to indicate their most preferred vehicle from a set of six hypothetical vehicles. The hypothetical vehicles were described in terms of fourteen attributes, manipulated according to an experimental design. The transactions model is a multinomial logic model of the choice of the hypothetical vehicles and whether or not the hypothetical vehicle will be a replacement or addition to the household fleet. The model is conditioned on the household`s current vehicle stock, and the characteristics of the current vehicles are important explanators of the stated preference choices. In addition to the model estimates, forecasts are given for a base case scenario in 1998. The model is one component in a micro-simulation demand forecasting system being designed to produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic area. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing alternative-fuel vehicles.
This research develops then merges two separate models to simulate electric vehicle diffusion through recreation of the Boston metropolitan statistical area vehicle market place. The first model is a mixed (random parameters) logistic regression applied to data from the US Department of Transportation's 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second, agent-based model simulates social network interactions through which agents' vehicle choice sets are endogenously determined. Parameters fro...
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to...
How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic
In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days. It is…
Lent, Robert W.; Brown, Steven D.; Schmidt, Janet; Brenner, Bradley; Lyons, Heather; Treistman, Dana
Social cognitive career theory (SCCT; R. W. Lent, S. D. Brown, and G. Hackett, 1994) and general social cognitive theory (Bandura, 1999, 2000) posit somewhat different relations between contextual variables and choice actions. The authors tested the predictions of these 2 model variations. Participants (328 students in an introductory engineering…
Pokhilchuk, K. A.; Savel'ev, S. E.
We propose two different methods for optimal choice of GARCH(1,1) parameters for the efficient modelling of stock prices by using a particular return series. Using (as an example) stock return data for Intel Corporation, we vary parameters to fit the average volatility as well as fourth (linked to kurtosis of data) and eighth statistical moments and observe pure convergence of our simulated eighth moment to the stock data. Results indicate that fitting higher-order moments of a return series might not be an optimal approach for choosing GARCH parameters. In contrast, the simulated exponent of the Fourier spectrum decay is much less noisy and can easily fit the corresponding decay of the empirical Fourier spectrum of the used return series of Intel stock, allowing us to efficiently define all GARCH parameters. We compare the estimates of GARCH parameters obtained by fitting price data Fourier spectra with the ones obtained from standard software packages and conclude that the obtained estimates here are deeper in the stability region of parameters. Thus, the proposed method of using Fourier spectra of stock data to estimate GARCH parameters results in a more robust and stable stochastic process but with a shorter characteristic autocovariance time.
Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group
Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels. PMID:24266450
Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.
health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark in...
Gelhausen, Marc Christopher
Modelling airport choice of passengers has been a subject of interest for air transport scientists and airport managers already for a while. Wilken, Berster and Gelhausen have reported of a market segment specific model approach to airport choice in Germany in a paper entitled "Airport Choice in Germany - New Empirical Evidence of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003" presented at the Air Transport Research Society World Conference 2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In continuation of the analys...
Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because of their...