Climate change and livestock: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Melissa Rojas-Downing

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Global demand for livestock products is expected to double by 2050, mainly due to improvement in the worldwide standard of living. Meanwhile, climate change is a threat to livestock production because of the impact on quality of feed crop and forage, water availability, animal and milk production, livestock diseases, animal reproduction, and biodiversity. This study reviews the global impacts of climate change on livestock production, the contribution of livestock production to climate change, and specific climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the livestock sector. Livestock production will be limited by climate variability as animal water consumption is expected to increase by a factor of three, demand for agricultural lands increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest is used for livestock feed. Meanwhile, the livestock sector contributes 14.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, driving further climate change. Consequently, the livestock sector will be a key player in the mitigation of GHG emissions and improving global food security. Therefore, in the transition to sustainable livestock production, there is a need for: a assessments related to the use of adaptation and mitigation measures tailored to the location and livestock production system in use, and b policies that support and facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

2011-01-01

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

2018-03-01

Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wardekker, J.A.

2011-01-01

Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: The case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania. ... The changes have affected crops and livestock in a number of ways resulting in reduced productivity. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggest decreasing ...

Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrétien, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

European Climate Change Programme. Working Group II. Impacts and Adaptation. Water Management. Sectoral Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-03-01

Adaptation is a new policy area for the European climate change policy. The Impacts and Adaptation Workgroup has been set up as part of European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II). The main objective of the workgroup is to explore options to improve Europe's resilience to Climate Change Impacts, to encourage the integration of climate change adaptation into other policy areas at the European, national and regional level and to define the role of EU-wide policies complementing action by Member States. The aim of this initial programme of work is to identify good practice in the development of adaptation policy and foster learning from different sectoral experiences and explore a possible EU role in adaptation policies. The Commission has led a series of 10 sectoral meetings looking at adaptation issues for different sectors. One of these meetings looked at the impacts on the water cycle and water resources management and prediction of extreme events in particular. This report summarises the state of play in the Water Resources sector in relation to adaptation to climate change on the basis of the information gathered at the stakeholder meeting on 11 April, 2006

Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2015-01-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

2013-01-30

Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

2018-03-01

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used

Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This document reports the works of an inter-departmental group and of sector-based and transverse groups which aimed at assessing the impacts of climate change. After a first contribution about the assessment methodology, the works of sector-based groups and transverse groups are reported. These groups are dealing with agriculture, forest, infrastructures and built environment, tourism, energy, health, water, natural risks (and insurance and adaptation to climatic change in metropolitan France), biodiversity and land. For each of them, challenges, assessment approaches, first results and perspectives are discussed

Environmental impacts of flood control measures in climate change adaptation strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brudler, Sarah; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

it on the surface without harming assets. When evaluating different adaptation approaches, a cost assessment is typically carried out, while environmental impacts usually are not considered. To close this gap, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) based method is developed, which allows to quantify environmental impacts...... only contribute up to 4% of the environmental impacts for the CMP and less than 1% for the SSA. Our method helps explain how the handling of everyday events and extreme rain events affect the environmental sustainability of climate change adaptation and it enables cities to consider the environmental......Because of climatic changes, large investments are needed to keep flood risk at an acceptable level in urban areas. Increasing dimensions of underground sewer systems and retention basins are increasingly supplemented with multi-functional approaches, aimed at managing water locally and/or route...

Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

OpenAIRE

Deryng, Delphine

2014-01-01

As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and adaptation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moors, E.J.; Singh, T.; Siderius, C.; Balakrishnan, S.; Mishra, A.

2013-01-01

Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of

European Climate Change Programme. Working Group II. Impacts and Adaptation. Urban Planning and Construction. Sectoral Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-03-01

Adaptation is a new policy area for the European Climate Change Policy. The Impacts and Adaptation Workgroup has been set up as part of European Climate Change Programme (ECCP II). The main objective of the workgroup is to explore options to improve Europe's resilience to climate change impacts, to encourage the integration of climate change adaptation into other policy areas at the European, national, regional and local level and to define the role of EU-wide policies complementing action by Member States. The aim of this initial programme of work is to identify good practice in the development of adaptation policy and foster learning from different sectoral experiences and explore a possible EU role in adaptation policies. The Commission has led a series of 10 sectoral meetings looking at adaptation issues for different sectors. One of these meetings looked at the impacts on urban planning and infrastructure in particular. This report summarises the state of play in the urban planning sector in relation to adaptation to climate change on the basis of the information gathered at the stakeholder meeting. Some of the other stakeholder meetings, such as the meeting on human health, have a strong connection with the urban planning agenda. Therefore, some actions in the sector report on adaptation and human health relate to urban planning and infrastructure considerations

Stakeholders' participatory diagnosis of climate change impacts on subsistence agriculture in Sikkim, India, for identifying adaptation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Azhoni, A.; Goyal, M. K.

2017-12-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact subsistence agriculture. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers and perspectives of consultants and researchers which are expected to be implemented by development agencies farmers in the state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the framing and implementation of State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the State Government, Scientific Organisations, consultants, local academia, implementing and development agencies, and farmers for whom the adaptation strategies are targeted. Using Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis approach, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying adaptation strategies, and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for their subsistence livelihood, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them an access to new and high value crops. Although important steps are initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and identifying the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will likely to pay rich dividends. While Sikkim being a small and hilly state with specific contextual challenges of climate change impacts, the results from this study highlights how the internal and external networks between various types of stakeholders informs decision makers in identifying local impacts of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.

Adaptation to climate change in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-03-01

This report first comments some data and facts illustrating climate change. It discusses its various impacts (extreme meteorological events, dramatic impacts on ecosystems with the possible disappearance of some vegetal and animal species, crisis regarding food resources, health risks, population migrations notably because of sea level rise), and briefly evokes these impacts in France. It outlines the need for adaptation and describes the different adaptation principles: reduction of vulnerability, and anticipation of changes and of their impacts. It comments how adaptation and mitigation are two complementary approaches. It presents the French State strategy with its national adaptation strategy, its national adaptation plan, the mandatory elaboration of regional schemes for climate, air and energy, and the action of local communities

Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

Since its creation in 2001, ONERC has been an essential tool for bringing public authorities and elected officials the necessary bases for strategic choices and for steering political decisions. After having suggested a national strategy for adaptation to climate change for France, ONERC, together with the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, responsible for Green Technologies and climate Negotiations, steered an inter-ministerial working group on the impacts of climate change, adaptation and associated costs. Climate change is today a reality, and its consequences will have a significant medium-term impact on our environment and our ways of life. The Grenelle Environment Forum recommended anticipating these as of now, in order to minimise the resulting socio-economic impacts and reduce the vulnerability of the players concerned. Defining and evaluating the impacts of climate change that players will have to confront allows the most suitable adaptation measures to be planned. In March 2007, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea (MEEDDM) formed an inter-ministerial group under the name 'Impacts of climate change, adaptation and associated costs in France', thus undertaking a project to evaluate the damage and the measures that will allow the cost of impacts to be limited. One of the characteristics of this task resides in the fact that it is, for the most part, carried out by the services concerned, with research organisation and private player collaboration. It must be considered as a stage in an ambitious public action gauging process: it leads to temporary results that remain open to discussion, for development in later stages. The decision has produced sectoral evaluations at Horizons 2030, 2050 and 2100, without wanting to aggregate the results. At this stage, the thematic works have not been designed to be exhaustive: only certain impacts have been assessed in a quantitative fashion. The group chose

Adapting to climate change. Towards a European framework for action. Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-04-01

This report accompanies the Commission's White Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change. Its objective is to raise the profile of adaptation and to build a coherent approach at institutional level across the EU. The proposed EU Framework would complement and re-enforce Member States actions, particularly through existing funding channels, the provision of accurate climate information and appropriate guidance, ensuring that adaptation is integrated in important EU policy sectors and guaranteeing solidarity between countries/regions. The White Paper adopts a phased approach: Phase 1 (2009-2012) will lay the ground work for the preparation of a more comprehensive adaptation strategy for the EU to be implemented during phase 2 commencing in 2012. This report is first and foremost a taking-stock exercise, reviewing the literature and gathering the views of services and stakeholders, on the basis of the 2007 Green Paper. It is also meant to serve as a reference framework to develop an EU adaptation policy in future. It is a cross-cutting exercise and it is complemented by sectoral papers on water, coasts and marine issues, agriculture and health. Chapter 1 explains briefly the process for the elaboration of both documents since the publication of the Green Paper on Adaptation in 2007 and the broad internal and external consultation. Chapter 2 defines key concepts such as impacts, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. It identifies the uncertainties and the knowledge gaps to be filled to establish priorities and monitor further action. It provides an overview of the vulnerability of EU sectors, regions or groups, to Climate Change impacts. Taking into account how national, regional and sectoral adaptation strategies already address some of these challenges, it evaluates the scope for EU action, focusing on mainstreaming adaptation into EU policies and on the necessary co-ordination of the different policy levels. Chapter 3 describes the objectives of the IA and explains how

Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-08-01

A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-08-01

A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

Adaptation and evolution in marine environments. Vol. 2. The impacts of global change on biodiversity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verde, Cinzia; Di Prisco, Guido (eds.) [CNR, Napoli (Italy). Inst. of Protein Biochemistry

2013-02-01

Offers a regionally focussed approach. Describes research on adaptive evolution. State-of-the-art content. The second volume of ''Adaptation and Evolution in Marine Environments - The Impacts of Global Change on Biodiversity'' from the series ''From Pole to Pole'' integrates the marine biology contribution of the first tome to the IPY 2007-2009, presenting overviews of organisms (from bacteria and ciliates to higher vertebrates) thriving on polar continental shelves, slopes and deep sea. The speed and extent of warming in the Arctic and in regions of Antarctica (the Peninsula, at the present) are greater than elsewhere. Changes impact several parameters, in particular the extent of sea ice; organisms, ecosystems and communities that became finely adapted to increasing cold in the course of millions of years are now becoming vulnerable, and biodiversity is threatened. Investigating evolutionary adaptations helps to foresee the impact of changes in temperate areas, highlighting the invaluable contribution of polar marine research to present and future outcomes of the IPY in the Earth system scenario.

New directions in climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment: summary of a workshop

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

National Research Council (U.S.). Subcommittee for a Workshop on New Directions in Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Assessment; National Academies Press (U.S.); National Research Council (U.S.). Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change; Brewer, Jennifer F

...; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological...

Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Omenda, T.O.; Kariuki, J.G.; Mbuthi, P.N.

1998-01-01

Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

Motivations for Local Climate Adaptation in Dutch Municipalities: Climate Change Impacts and the Role of Local-Level Government

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Berg, Maya Marieke

2009-01-01

The local government level is considered to be crucial in preparing society for climate change impact. Yet little is known about why local authorities do or do not take action to adapt their community for climate change impacts. In order to implement effective adaptation policy, the motivations for

Financing urban adaptation to climate change impacts mapping of existing initiatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eschalier, Claire; Leseur, Alexia; Archambault, Sabrina; Joubert, Marion; Larrue, Clement; Rossin, Nicolas; Salenson, Irene

2015-01-01

In June 2015, CDC Climat research, in partnership with AFD, published a mapping of the types of initiatives available for the financing of urban adaptation to climate change, offering additional options to more conventional sources of funding for climate change and sustainable development (national budget transfers, Official Development Aid, etc.). Based on the review of 27 main initiatives, the report shows a strong prevalence of initiatives supporting soft adaptation measures (strategy planning, capacity building, project design, technical assistance, etc). These are in a position to help support the development of a coherent portfolio of bankable projects. The mapping also reveals that local intermediaries (regional and local banks, national development funds, etc.) play a significant role in financing urban adaptation to climate change. Several key factor of success for the cities' access to these sources of funding are also identified, among which liaising with international development stakeholders (such as multilateral and bilateral donors) at the local level, and the identification of various co-benefits and synergies between the economic, environmental and climate impacts. (authors)

Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bagamba, F.; Bashaasha, B.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.

2012-01-01

The debate on whether climate change will impact on peoples’ livelihoods and, hence, the need to act is essentially over and has instead shifted to the development of strategies needed by different regions and countries to adapt to climate change effects. However, there is still scanty information

Would science serve decision-making to adapt the impact of climate change? Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation – scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gin-Rong Liu Peiwen Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We live in challenging times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. Climate change, with its impact on disruptive events as well as gradual trends, has been addressed in scientific studies and become increasingly important in policymaking. This rises up a great need on scientific integration and knowledge transformation. The Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT is formed under this concern. Directing by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST, it carries a strong intention to explore and to conduct adequate knowledge of climate change and adaptation strategies for decision-making supports. The TaiCCAT highly recommends the approach of cross-disciplinary collaboration from environmental studies to adaptation governance. The result can therefore be more contributive to reflect the complexity of the changing world.

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

, private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts......From an applied point of view, the authors present and discuss inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to assess and deal with natural coastal hazards and climate change impacts. The construction of a shared working platform for knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has

Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

OpenAIRE

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functio...

Possible adaptation measures of agriculture sector in the Nile Delta to climate change impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. M. Attaher

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The overall agricultural system in the Nile Delta region is considered as one of the highest intensive and complicated agriculture systems in the world. According to the recent studies, the Nile Delta region is one of the highly vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. Sea level rise, soil and water degradation, undiversified crop-pattern, yield reduction, pests and disease severity, and irrigation and drainage management were the main key factors that increased vulnerability of the agriculture sector in that region. The main objective of this study is to conduct a community-based multi-criteria adaptation assessment in the Nile Delta using a preset questionnaire. A list of possible adaptation measures for agriculture sector was evaluated. The results indicated that the Nile Delta growers have strong perceptions to act positively to reduce the impacts of climate change. They reflected the need to improve the their adaptive capacity based on clear scientific message with adequate governmental support to coop with the negative impacts of climate change.

The adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gameren, Valentine; Weikmans, Romain; Zaccai, Edwin

2014-01-01

The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lesnikowski, A C; Ford, J D; Berrang-Ford, L; Paterson, J A; Barrera, M; Heymann, S J

2011-01-01

Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.

Climate change: costs of impacts and lines of adaptation. Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The ONERC has steered in 2008 and 2009, with the Department of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, a working-group involving other Departments on the assessment of the impacts of the climate change, the adaptation and the related costs. Relying mainly on government's administrations, this cooperative work included participants from some research organizations and private utilities. Ten key-sectors have been studied: natural risks, water resource, biodiversity, health, road infrastructures, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and territories. The present - third - ONERC report summarizes and comments the main findings of this working group. It provides estimates that the annual costs related to the climate change: they could reach several billion euros per year if no adaptation is undertaken in due time. Several ways and means of adaptation have been defined; they would reduce the negative impacts of climate change in France. Most of the adaptation measures are however largely dependent on the territorial characteristics, and will have to be studied and on a case-by-case basis at the local level. The acquired knowledge and the proposed adaptation solutions will be an input to the national adaptation plan which, by law, is scheduled to be ready in 2011

Climatic change impacts, adaptation and associated costs in France. Intermediate report. June 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

This report aims at promoting the awareness of sector-based and land challenges of climate change in terms of impacts. It gives a wide overview of the present knowledge on sector-based vulnerabilities, and allows the identification of some paths for the alleviation of these vulnerabilities. After a discussion of objectives and context, of methodological choices (data, modalities to take impacts and adaptation into account, impact assessment approach) thematic woks are reported. They are dealing with health (population vulnerability to climate change with the example of 2006 heat wave), agriculture, forest and water, energy, tourism, natural risks and insurance, territories. For each of these topics, the reports discusses vulnerability aspects, the present knowledge about the impact of climate change, and identifies the core problems as well as studies which remain to be performed

Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

2013-01-01

. This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

2014-01-01

. This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt's Nile Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Abutaleb, Khaled Abubakr Ali; Mohammed, Asmaa Hassan El-Sayed; Ahmed, Mahmoud H. Mohamed

2018-04-01

During the last few decades there has been growing concern about the impacts of climate change. A significant number of institutions, research centers, universities and governments have funded projects in addition to work done by independent scholars and assessors studying this phenomenon, in particular, to identify vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation against associated risks. Egypt is among the international community which took part in numerous studies, research activities, conferences, seminars and meetings attempting to address climate change and its associated risks. Egypt is particularly concerned with the threat to the Nile Delta as it is considered a low-lying land at high risk. The aim of this paper is to review current and previous projects, technical reports and pilot studies, concerning risk assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for climate change in Egypt. This, in turn, will aid in decision making regarding future funding and establishing of research related to climate change in Egypt. This paper will also highlight the weaknesses and strengths of policymakers solely relying on one or more of these studies.

Watershed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts: A case of Kiha Watershed in Albertine Graben

Science.gov (United States)

Zizinga, A.

2017-12-01

Watershed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts: A case of Kiha Watershed in Albertine GrabenAlex Zizinga1, Moses Tenywa2, Majaliwa Jackson Gilbert1, 1Makerere University, Department of Environmental Sciences, O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 1Makerere University, Department of Agricultural Production, P.O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda Corresponding author: azizinga@caes.mak.ac.ug AbstractThe most pressing issues local communities in Uganda are facing result from land-use and land cover changes exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key issue is the documentation of land-cover changes visible with the ongoing clearance of remaining forests, bush-lands and wetlands for expanding farmland for sugarcane production, producing charcoal and collecting firewood for local distilleries using imported molasses. Decision-makers, resource managers, farmers and practitioners must build their capacity for adaptive measures. Here we present the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrological processes in the River Kiha Watershed, located in Western Uganda, Lake Albert Water Management Zone, by using social learning techniques incorporating water users, local stakeholders and researchers. The research team examined different farming and economic activities within the watershed to assess their impacts on catchment water resources, namely on water quality and discharge of river Kiha. We present the impacts of locally induced climate change, which are already manifested in increasing seasonal variability of rainfall. The study aims at answering questions posed by local communities and stakeholders about climate change and its effects on livelihood and key resources, specifically water and soils within the Kiha watershed. Key words: Climate change impacts, Social Learning and Watershed Management

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

Understanding climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity: synthesis report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patino, L. [Policy Research Initiative, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2010-09-15

In 2007, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) offered its support to research projects that were involved in understanding and improving adaptation and adaptive capacity and contributed to climate change decision-making and policy development in Canada. 20 research projects were commissioned by the CCIAD. With the collaboration of NRCan, the principal findings raised by the commissioned projects were synthesized by the Policy Research Initiative (PRI). Common themes and main messages are introduced in this synthesis report, and policy and program aspects that promote adaptive capacity to climate change in Canada are identified. Common themes and important messages emerging from the research projects, as well as the processes and barriers to adaptation and adaptive capacity identified in the commissioned projects, were discussed during a workshop held in Ottawa in 2009. Five main themes and four common barriers to adaptation were found. 25 refs.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Q. Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China. Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID, driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5. The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing

Climate change and the UK house building sector: perceptions, impacts and adaptive capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hertin, J.; Berkhout, F.; Gann, D.; Barlow, J.

2003-01-01

This paper explores how climate change could affect the UK house-building sector, focusing on the question of how companies can adapt to changing climatic conditions. It presents the results of in-depth interviews in five house-building companies in the UK. We start from the assumption that climate change is only one driver among many, including technological innovation, shifting consumer expectations and changing regulation, that the industry faces. This approach draws on insights that are well established in the management and innovation literatures, but have often been neglected in studies of climate change. We report research about the perceptions of house builders about future impacts of climate change, potential adaptation measures that may be open to them and their ability to carry out these measures. The paper draws conclusions about the challenges that climate change presents to the UK house building industry. (author)

Explore 2070: what use of a prospective exercise on climate change impacts at the national scale to define adaptation strategies?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carroget, Aurelie; Perrin, Charles; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Chazot, Sebastien; Chauveau, Mathilde; Rouchy, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Projected climate change could have important impacts on water availability in France by mid-21. century. The Explore 2070 prospective study, directed by the Ministry in charge of ecology, has thus highlighted the necessity to quantify and anticipate these changes, and to build adaptation strategies to limit their negative impacts on hydro-systems and human activities. This paper analyses how these works have contributed to the sensitization of water actors and to the reflection about climate change adaptation in France and to the reflection on adaptation to climate change in France

Adaptability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprague, M.W.

1991-01-01

The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akhter Ali

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Adapting to climate variability and change in Ontario : volume 4 of the Canada country study : climate impacts and adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, J.; Lavender, B. [Smith and Lavender Envrironmental Consultants, ON (Canada); Auld, H.; Broadhurst, D.; Bullock, T. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Ontario Region

1998-03-01

An assessment of how climate change will affect Ontario over the next century, including its social, biological and economic environment, is presented. The most significant impacts are expected to result from changes in precipitation patterns, in soil moisture, and in greater intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Some of the major impacts of changing climate discussed in this volume include: (1) more pollution episodes, (2) increased heat stress, (3) lowering of average water levels of the Great Lakes, (4) changes in the hydrologic cycle which could result in variability of water supply for hydroelectric power production, (5) warming waters of the Great Lakes which could cause fish species to shift northward, (6) cool temperate, moderate temperate and grassland regions could expand northwards as the boreal forest retreats, (7) longer crop growing seasons, (8) decreased snow loads, and (9) reduced ice on the Great Lakes which would increase the length of the shipping season. The general conclusion is that adapting to changing climate will require a knowledge of how climate changes occur and how the changes are likely to affect the environment, society and economy. Changes in other key variables such as technology, personal preferences and social values will also influence the rate of climate change and Ontario`s ability to adapt to it. refs., tabs., figs.

The future of the Mediterranean from impacts of climate change to adaptation issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnan, A.; Garnaud, B.; Bille, R.; Gemenne, F.; Hallegatte, St.

2009-01-01

the fight against climate change must be considered for the short, medium and long term at the crossroads of climatic, socioeconomic and environmental issues. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean. The region's rapid growth in recent decades, while delivering significant positive impacts for the living conditions of the population, has however largely occurred at the expense of the environmental balance, which is essential for human well-being, and has often contributed to an increase in social and economical disparity, which are characteristic of the Mediterranean basin today. Major pressures and threats already place a heavy demand on the resources and activities of the Mediterranean. Climate change will accentuate these pressures, but will not change their nature. The aim therefore is to act upstream of these pressures and threats to reduce their effect and to avoid the occurrence of new ones. As the Mediterranean offers a diverse range of cultural, political, economical and environmental circumstances, it is expected that the impacts of climate change will take contrasting forms, as should the possible solutions. The Mediterranean therefore appears to be a priority for adaptation, and also serves as a laboratory for testing measures that could be implemented elsewhere in the world. This report aims to provide a general framework for the implementation of adaptation in the Mediterranean context, based on a number of important clarifications and accompanied by operational recommendations. In the first part (section 2) the scientific basis of the study will be set, notably from the works of the IPCC. We will assess the major climatic evolutions predicted for the Mediterranean over the coming century, concentrating on temperatures, rainfall regimes and variation of sea level. This will lead us to present (section 3) the induced physical impacts and to study the consequences on natural resources and human activities. We will then explore the central topic

Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2014-01-01

The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

2016-01-01

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: A monetary assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Georgopoulou

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a quantitative assessment of mid-term (2021–2050 climate change impacts on and potential adaptation options for selected crops in Greece that are of importance in terms of their share in national agricultural production and gross value added. Central points in the assessment are the monetary evaluation of impacts and the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options. To address local variability in current and future climate conditions, analysis is spatially disaggregated into geographical regions using as an input downscaled results from climatic models. For some crops (cereals, vegetables, pulses, grapevines, changes in future agricultural yields are assessed by means of agronomic simulation models, while for the rest crops changes are assessed through regression models. The expected effects on crop yields of a number of potential adaptation options are also investigated through the same models, and the costs and benefits of these options are also quantitatively assessed. The findings indicate that climate change may create winners and losers depending on their agricultural activity and location, while adaptation can mitigate adverse effects of climate change under cost-effective terms.

Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

2013-01-01

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

Science.gov (United States)

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-11-01

Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

Migration and adaptation to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tacoli, Cecilia

2007-11-15

Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

Fair adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

2006-01-01

This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

Herdsmen’s Adaptation to Climate Changes and Subsequent Impacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingcheng Liu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate change. This study analyzed the effects of herdsmen’s adaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding, income, and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterization scheme. The empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP model on the basis of the household survey data in the Three-River Source Region, an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province, China. Then, the land surface parameterization process is analyzed based on the agent-based model (ABM, which involves the herdsmen’s adaptation measures on climate change, and it also provides reference for the land surface change projection. The result shows that the climate change adaptation measures will have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsman’s livestock and income as well as future land surface dynamics. Some suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

2009-01-01

Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2015-01-01

Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation

Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

2013-04-01

Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

2006-07-01

Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; Carter, Timothy R.

2010-01-01

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started...

Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Azhoni, Adani; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2018-06-01

Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to Externally Driven Change: The Impact of Political Change on Job Satisfaction in the Public Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Tabvuma, Vurain; Bui, Hong T M; Homberg, Fabian

2014-01-01

This article uses a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the adaptation of job satisfaction to externally driven political change in the public sector. This is important because democratic government bureaucracies often experience changes in leadership after elections. The analyses are based on data drawn from a large longitudinal data set, the British Household Panel Survey. Findings indicate that the impact of political elections is largely weak and temporary and is only present for men. For women, the internal processes of the organization tend to be more important. These findings suggest that changes in political leadership may not be associated with fundamental changes in policy. PMID:25598554

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-12-11

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Cegnar, T.

2010-09-01

In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and

Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

1996-01-01

This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

2007-05-01

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

Science.gov (United States)

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

Climate change impacts and adaptations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

2015-01-01

change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

Climate Change Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hudecz, Adriána

The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

Adapting to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

2011-01-01

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

Climate change impacts and adaptations on small-scale livestock production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taruvinga, A.

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The paper estimated the impacts of climate change and adaptations on small-scale livestock production. The study is based on a survey of 1484 small-scale livestock rural farmers across the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Regression estimates finds that with warming, the probability of choosing the following species increases; goats, dual purpose chicken (DPC, layers, donkeys and ducks. High precipitation increases the probability of choosing the following animals; beef, goats, DPC and donkeys. Further, socio-economic estimates indicate that livestock selection choices are also conditioned by gender, age, marital status, education and household size. The paper therefore concluded that as climate changes, rural farmers switch their livestock combinations as a coping strategy. Unfortunately, rural farmers face a limited preferred livestock selection pool that is combatable to harsh climate which might translate to a bleak future for rural livestock farmers.

The method of producing climate change datasets impacts the resulting policy guidance and chance of mal-adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Ekström

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV research underpin strategies for adaptation to climate change and help to conceptualise what life may look like in decades to come. Research draws on information from global climate models (GCMs though typically post-processed into a secondary product with finer resolution through methods of downscaling. Through worked examples set in an Australian context we assess the influence of GCM sub-setting, geographic area sub-setting and downscaling method on the regional change signal. Examples demonstrate that choices impact on the final results differently depending on factors such as application needs, range of uncertainty of the projected variable, amplitude of natural variability, and size of study region. For heat extremes, the choice of emissions scenario is of prime importance, but for a given scenario the method of preparing data can affect the magnitude of the projection by a factor of two or more, strongly affecting the indicated adaptation decision. For catchment level runoff projections, the choice of emission scenario is less dominant. Rather the method of selecting and producing application-ready datasets is crucial as demonstrated by results with opposing sign of change, raising the real possibility of mal-adaptive decisions. This work illustrates the potential pitfalls of GCM sub-sampling or the use of a single downscaled product when conducting IAV research. Using the broad range of change from all available model sources, whilst making the application more complex, avoids the larger problem of over-confidence in climate projections and lessens the chance of mal-adaptation.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

2015-12-01

The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2009-01-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected...... how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania...

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Congo Basin Countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Garderen, van L.; Ludwig, F.

2012-01-01

During the last decades, the importance and seriousness of climate change and it’s impacts have become more and more understood. The climate is already changing and therefor adaptation to these changes need to be made. Central Africa needs to adapt to climate change just as much as the rest of the

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianyi Zhang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available To improve adaptive capacity and further strengthen the role of irrigation in mitigating climate change impacts, the Chinese government has planned to expand irrigated areas by 4.4% by the 2030s. Examining the adaptive potential of irrigated area expansion under climate change is therefore critical. Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980–2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s. Based on regression analysis, there is a statistically significant effect of irrigated area expansion on reducing negative climate impacts. More irrigated areas indicate less heat and drought impacts. Irrigated area expansion will alleviate yield reduction by 0.7–0.8% in the future but associated yield benefits will still not compensate for greater adverse climate impacts. Yields are estimated to decrease by 4.0–6.5% under future climate conditions when an additional 4.4% of irrigated area is established, and no fundamental yield increase with an even further 10% or 15% expansion of irrigated area is predicted. This finding suggests that expected adverse climate change risks in the 2030s cannot be mitigated by expanding irrigated areas. A combination of this and other adaptation programs is needed to guarantee grain production under more serious drought stresses in the future.

An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

2014-11-01

Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

Adapting to climate change in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Downing, T.E. Ringius, L. Hulme, M. Waughray, D.

1997-01-01

The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered. 2 figs., 7 tabs., 48 refs

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

The national adaptation plan to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galliot, M.

2013-01-01

Adaptation to climate change is a necessity, as well as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Since 2001, the National Observatory on the effects of global warming gathers and disseminates news on the effects of climate change and drive implementation of adaptation in France. A national strategy was adopted in 2006, followed by an analysis of the impacts of climate change and associated costs that could amount to several billion euros per year at the end of the century. Preceded by extensive consultation that involved stakeholders Grenelle Environment the National Adaptation Plan was published in mid-2011. It covers all sectors and many areas. He has more than 80 concrete actions that will commit France to adapt to the new climate. (author)

Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qianqian Zhou

2012-10-15

The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Sussman, A.

2015-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

Companies and adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourrier, Herve; Duchene, Patrice-Henry; Metcalf, Gerry; Deandreis, Celine; Hardelin, Julien; Vautard, Robert; Bailly, Boris; Gemenne, Francois; Peyrat, Olivier; Greppo, Fabien; Reysset, Bertrand; Beriot, Nicolas; Leonard, Damien; Colas, Julien; Tutenuit, Claire

2014-04-01

Whereas climate change will have significant consequences on various economic sectors (infrastructures, energy and water supply, agriculture, cities and buildings, and so on), population behaviours and uses will have to be deeply changed, and this is more particularly the case for enterprises and companies. This guide aims at presenting solutions to face the challenge of climate change for enterprises. In its first part, it outlines how our climate is already changing, gives an overview of main future climate trends in the World, indicates what will be the future climate in France, discusses the noticeable and brutal consequences for activities, resources and territories, outlines that adaptation to tomorrow's climate begins now, and discusses to which climate we'll have to adapt at the local level. In the second part, this publication explains why enterprises must adapt themselves to climate change: enterprises are in a changing environment, and must take a legal and standard framework into account, but this adaptation will have a cost. Adaptation also means uncertainty management, and enterprises are facing obstacles and brakes to adaptation. The last part describes how to implement a strategy of adaptation in an enterprise: resources for adaptation, integration of enterprise management, understanding needs to convince within the enterprise itself, assessment of vulnerability to climate change, how to define priorities for action, which options to choose to adapt the enterprise, how to implement the strategy and how to follow it up and assess it. Some sector-related sheets are provided in appendix. They indicate identified risks, potential impacts of national policies for enterprises, measures which can be freely implemented by enterprises, and identified opportunities for various sectors (health, agriculture, forest, coastal areas, fishery and aquaculture, energy and industry, transport infrastructure, town planning and built environment, tourism

Adapting to the impacts of climate change

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

America's Climate Choices: Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change; National Research Council

2010-01-01

"Across the United States, impacts of climate change are already evident. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, cold extremes have become less frequent, and patterns of rainfall are likely changing...

Overcoming the barriers. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, T.; Tanner, T.; Wilkinson, E.; Roach, R.; Boyd, S.

2006-10-01

Climate change is a huge threat to all aspects of human development and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction. Until recently, donor agencies, national and local layers of government, and non-governmental organisations have paid little attention to the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change. Now, however, players at all levels are increasingly engaging with the question of how to tackle the impacts of climate change on development in poorer nations. There are growing efforts to reduce negative impacts and seize opportunities by integrating climate change adaptation into development planning, programmes and budgeting, a process known as mainstreaming. Such a co-ordinated, integrated approach to adaptation is imperative in order to deal with the scale and urgency of dealing with climate change impacts. In developed countries progress on mainstreaming climate adaptation has been limited. Many countries have carried out climate change projections and impact assessments, but few have started consultation processes to look at adaptation options and identify policy responses. In developing countries, the mainstreaming process is also in its early stages. Small island developing states have made good progress, with Caribbean countries among the first to start work on adaptation. The Pacific islands have received considerable support and through the World Bank a number of initiatives have begun. Crucially, there has been little progress in mainstreaming adaptation within existing poverty alleviation policy frameworks. There is a lack of research on the extent to which climate change, and environmental issues more broadly, have been integrated within PRSPs. This is critical. Examples of efforts from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan, Mexico and Kenya are presented, highlighting a number of key issues relating to current experiences of integrating climate change into poverty reduction efforts. Experiences so far

Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

2016-04-01

In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

Climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector : workshop report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

This workshop on climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector was conducted in order to develop a climate change work plan for the Council of Energy Ministers (CEM) as well as to develop awareness and dialogue within Canada's energy sector. Industry members and government officials identified findings from recent assessment reports on climate change adaptation and discussed ways in which the international oil and gas industry is currently adapting its operations and technologies to ensure continuing safety and risk mitigation. The use of hydrological models to forecast the potential impacts of climate change was discussed, and the drivers of climate change adaptation were reviewed. A total of 26 topics were identified, 13 of which were prioritized for group discussions based on their impact and urgency. The following 5 topics were finally identified as top priority topics: (1) climate change adaptation science, (2) co-ordinated local, provincial, national, and international policies, (3) information sharing and knowledge transfer, (4) aging infrastructure and increasing demand, and (5) market mechanisms for adaptation. Four presentations were given during the initial portion of the workshop. 4 tabs., 1 fig

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shailesh Shrestha

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

Climate change in high definition : scenarios for impacts and adaptation research : conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This conference provided a forum to review information and tools to conduct climate change impact and adaptation research and assessments. The research community, policy advisors and resource managers reviewed the latest advancements in global and regional climate modeling, climate scenarios, downscaling tools and application of scenarios for decision-making. The new Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCSN) website was also launched at this meeting, which also provided training in Environment Canada's new statistical downscaling tool developed in collaboration with the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE). New features of the CCSN were presented along with examples of how information from the network can be applied in specific cases, including assessments of impacts in areas such as human health and water resources. A training session on downscaling with the newly developed Automated Statistical Downscaling (ASD) tool was also provided. The conference featured 19 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: A guide to initiating the adaptation planning process

Science.gov (United States)

Erika L. Rowland; Jennifer E. Davison; Lisa J. Graumlich

2011-01-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating...

Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basher, Reid E.

1999-01-01

An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs

Technologies for climate change adaptation. The water sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, T De [ed.; UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark); Elliott, M; Armstrong, A; Lobuglio, J; Bartram, J [The Water Institute at the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

2011-04-15

This guidebook aims to provide expert information on the technologies most relevant for climate change adaptation in the water sector in developing countries. It is meant to be a practical tool for use by a broad range of stakeholders, including those in governmental agencies, water utilities, community water boards, non-governmental organizations, and private sector companies. Adaptation is an essential element of human response to climate change. The adverse impacts of climate change on the water sector will be experienced worldwide and are often projected to be most severe in resource-poor countries. Therefore, it is necessary to have access to a diverse array of adaptation technologies and practices that are appropriate and affordable in various contexts. The scale of these adaptation technologies/practices should range from the individual household level (e.g. household water treatment), to the community scale (e.g. rainwater collection in small reservoirs), to large facilities that can benefit a city or region (e.g. a desalination plant). The guidebook first reviews the projected impacts of climate change on the water sector. It then addresses the role of adaptation in the water sector and six typologies under which available strategies are categorized. Eleven technologies and practices are given detailed treatment in this guidebook and four others are covered briefly. While these do not constitute all of the adaptation technologies available in the water sector, they do represent many of the most important adaptation technologies for developing countries. For each of the 11 adaptation technologies and practices, the following are addressed: basic description, contribution to climate change and development, institutional and capacity building requirements, costs, barriers and opportunities for implementation, and extensive reference to external resources and case studies. The practical steps and appropriate contexts for implementation are covered in the

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

2013-09-10

Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn J. Bowen

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives: To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design: A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results: A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion: Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, James D; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

2014-01-01

The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts. (letter)

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. de Bruin (Kelly); R.B. Dellink (Rob); A. Ruijs (Arjan); L. Bolwidt; M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); J. Graveland (Jaap); R.S. de Groot; P.J. Kuikman; S. Reinhard; R.P. Roetter (Reimund); V.C. Tassone (Valentina); Verhagen (A.C.); E.C. van Ierland (Ekko)

2009-01-01

textabstractIn many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and

Adapting to the effects of climate change [Chapter 14

Science.gov (United States)

Jessica E. Halofsky

2018-01-01

Adapting to climate change, or adjusting to current or future climate and its effects (Noble et al. 2014), is critical to minimizing the risks associated with climate change impacts. Adaptation actions can vary from passive (e.g., a "wait and see" approach), to relatively simple (e.g., increasing harvest rotation age), to complex (e.g., managing forest...

Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

2015-12-01

This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

2017-09-01

This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adger, W.N.; Arnell, N.W.; University of Southampton; Tompkins, E.L.; University of East Anglia, Norwich; University of Southampton

2005-01-01

Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (author)

Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agrawala, S.; Paris, R.

2005-03-01

Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change: establishment and application for implementation matrix

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jiang Dongmei; Liu Bin

2009-01-01

In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change,adaptation measures can be categorized as two groupsL:facilitation and implementation.Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity,while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards,or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors.This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through four different ways how adaptation can influence the relevant elements of climate change:reducing the exposure,reducing the sensitivity,alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors,and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through application studies on the selected sub-systems,intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent,and put forward some new mea sures under the guidance of this matrix,which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.

Models of behavioral change and adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Zhang, J.

2017-01-01

This chapter explains and summarizes models of behavioral change and adaptation, which have received less application in the life choice analysis associated with urban policy. Related to various life choices, life trajectory events are major decisions with a relatively long-lasting impact, such as

Adaptation to Climate Change: How we are set to cope with the impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reid, Hannah; Huq, Saleemul

2007-06-15

Climate change is now very much with us, and for the poorest of the poor the implications are particularly daunting. These often remote or marginalised communities are so burdened they will struggle to meet the coming challenges. Adaptation – learning to cope with rising temperature and other effects of climate change – is a difficult but essential task for these vulnerable millions. This briefing paper defines climate change adaptation and shows why it matters, who needs to adapt most, and what shape adaptation must take across a range of scales and sectors.

Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

Adapting fisheries and their management to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Brander, Keith

2018-01-01

As the body of literature on marine climate impacts accumulates the question is no longer whether marine ecosystems and their living resources are affected, but what we as scientists, managers and policy makers can do to prepare for the inevitable changes. In this study, the current literature...... to climate change are outlined and discussed. Thirdly, case studies illustrating several key aspects (political, legal, economic, and social) influencing adaptation at the level of fisheries, communities and households worldwide are presented and compared. Finally, a brief synthesis of the main issues...... and measures are surprisingly few. This emphasizes the need to increase the general awareness of climate change impacts and to build a solid political, legal, financial and social infrastructure within which the available knowledge, tools and approaches can be set to practical use in implementing adaptation...

Towards a national adaptation strategy in view of climate changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. DOUKAKIS

2004-06-01

• The general national adaptation principles. The presentation analyses all the above concepts and proposes specific guidelines to formulate a Greek National Adaptation Strategy to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic climate changes.

Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities

Science.gov (United States)

Cinner, Joshua E.; Adger, W. Neil; Allison, Edward H.; Barnes, Michele L.; Brown, Katrina; Cohen, Philippa J.; Gelcich, Stefan; Hicks, Christina C.; Hughes, Terry P.; Lau, Jacqueline; Marshall, Nadine A.; Morrison, Tiffany H.

2018-01-01

To minimize the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing, governments, development agencies, and civil society organizations have made substantial investments in improving people's capacity to adapt to change. Yet to date, these investments have tended to focus on a very narrow understanding of adaptive capacity. Here, we propose an approach to build adaptive capacity across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; learning to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not.

Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

2017-04-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. F. Hamlet

2011-05-01

infrastructure and institutional arrangements provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, A. F.

2011-05-01

provide a reasonably solid foundation for coping with climate change impacts, and that the mandates of existing water resources policy and water resources management institutions are at least consistent with the fundamental objectives of climate change adaptation. A deeper inquiry into the underlying nature of PNW water resources systems, however, reveals significant and persistent obstacles to climate change adaptation, which will need to be overcome if effective use of the region's extensive water resources management capacity can be brought to bear on this problem. Primary obstacles include assumptions of stationarity as the fundamental basis of water resources system design, entrenched use of historical records as the sole basis for planning, problems related to the relatively short time scale of planning, lack of familiarity with climate science and models, downscaling procedures, and hydrologic models, limited access to climate change scenarios and hydrologic products for specific water systems, and rigid water allocation and water resources operating rules that effectively block adaptive response. Institutional barriers include systematic loss of technical capacity in many water resources agencies following the dam building era, jurisdictional fragmentation affecting response to drought, disconnections between water policy and practice, and entrenched bureaucratic resistance to change in many water management agencies. These factors, combined with a federal agenda to block climate change policy in the US during the Bush administration have (with some exceptions) contributed to widespread institutional "gridlock" in the PNW over the last decade or so despite a growing awareness of climate change as a significant threat to water management. In the last several years, however, significant progress has been made in surmounting some of these obstacles, and the region's water resources agencies at all levels of governance are making progress in addressing the fundamental

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

1995-01-01

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

1995-12-31

Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

ADAPTATION PROCESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE- AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Mustafa

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Climatic variations affect agriculture in a process with no known end means. Adaptations help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, adaptation has never been considered as a process. Current study empirically identified the adaptation process and its different stages. Moreover, little is known about the farm level adaptation strategies and their determinants. The study in hand found farm level adaptation strategies and determinants of these strategies. The study identified three stages of adaptation i.e. perception, intention and adaptation. It was found that 71.4% farmers perceived about climate change, 58.5% intended to adapt while 40.2% actually adapted. The study further explored that farmers do adaptations through changing crop variety (56.3%, changing planting dates (44.6%, tree plantation (37.5%, increase/conserve irrigation (39.3% and crop diversification (49.2%. The adaptation strategies used by farmers were autonomous and mostly determined perception to climate change. It was also noted that the adaptation strategies move in a circular process and once they are adapted they remained adapted for a longer period of time. Some constraints slow the adaptation process so; we recommend farmers should be given price incentives to speed-up this process.

Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana Galderisi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

2012-01-01

To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

OpenAIRE

G.M. Monirul Alam; Khorshed Alam; Shahbaz Mushtaq

2017-01-01

Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respo...

Water Security and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuula Honkonen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change will bring about unprecedented economic, social and environmental effects, which require both the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to its adverse effects. Water is the main element through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Climate change results in increased uncertainties, complexities, stress and potential for conflicts within water management, both among and within states. New forms of governance are needed if the world is to respond to the need to adapt to changes in freshwater supply and to manage water security risks. This paper suggests that adaptive governance should to be main-streamed into all water regulation to ensure the availability of and access to safe water resources and to prevent water-related conflicts. The paper discusses the concept of water security in the context of climate change, the threats that climate change poses to water security, and the concept and implications of adaptive governance as a possible solution. The application of adaptive governance requires a certain degree of institutional and normative flexibility, instruments and institutions that can respond and adapt to changes and manage the level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The governance institutions, methods and instruments should be responsive to new information and different kinds of uncertainties, while reflecting the vulnerabilities, capacities, needs and priorities of both societies and ecosystems in the face of climate change. Water security risks could be reduced by increased hydrosolidarity among states, which would present the challenges posed by climate change on water governance and security as primarily an opportunity for new forms of cooperation.

From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

From Research to Policy: Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Agriculture. Research on climate change and its impact on the ... Outputs. Journal articles. Factors affecting households vulnerability to climate change in Swaziland : a case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP). Download PDF ...

Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.M. Monirul Alam

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Adaptation is a key strategy that can alleviate the severity of climate change impacts on agriculture and food production. Adaptation strategies are unlikely to be effective without an understanding of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change. This paper explores the local knowledge of adaptation in response to the perceived impacts of climate change and climatic hazards using a survey of 380 resource-poor riverbank erosion-prone households in Bangladesh. The results indicate that the respondents’ perceptions of changes in the climate and of extreme climatic events are similar to the observed climate data. Households have recognized the impacts on their livelihood and resources, resulting in an increased sense of vulnerability. To build resilience, households have undertaken a range of farming and non-farming adaptation strategies, which vary significantly among the farming groups. The important adaptation strategies include adopting new crop varieties, changing planting time, homestead gardening, planting trees and migration. Improved access to finance and to information about appropriate strategies appears to be crucial to support adaptation processes locally and thus to enhance the resilience of vulnerable households.

Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2014-01-01

and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of climate...... benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation are tested under different climate change scenarios, seeing as the impact and frequency of storms can have a significant effect on coastal wetland areas and the replanting of the mangrove forests and therefore also on the joint benefits of climate change...

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

A preliminary examination of adaption to climate change in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, T.R.; Kankaanpaeae, S.

2003-01-01

The global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2 deg C during the 20th century and by about 0.7 deg C in Finland over the same period. Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is thought to be attributable to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. There is also widespread evidence (including some from Finland) that this warming has already had discernible impacts on many physical and biological systems. Projected future climate changes are expected to have significant adverse effects on natural ecosystems, biodiversity, human health, and flood risk in Finland, while beneficial effects include increased crop yields and timber production and reduced winter energy demand. Worldwide, adverse impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on poorer countries and populations. Regardless of any foreseeable reductions in emissions, some future climate change appears to be unavoidable, so society must be prepared to adapt to the inevitable consequences of climate change. Adaptation is thus a necessary complement to mitigation as a policy response to climate change, and has the potential to reduce many of the adverse impacts of climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts. However, understanding of adaptive capacity is relatively poor across all sectors in Finland, and lags behind comparable work in some other countries. In this report a number of research recommendations are suggested to redress this imbalance. (orig.)

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

2018-05-01

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

2007-03-01

The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation Among Farming Households ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to the fight against hunger, malnutrition, disease and poverty in Africa, essentially because of its impact on agricultural productivity. The objective of this paper was to identify the major barriers to climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers of ...

Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

Science.gov (United States)

Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

2015-01-01

Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Mazmanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

Institutions for adaptation to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Biesbroek, G.R.; Brink, van den M.A.

2012-01-01

In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, societies worldwide have to cope with the potential impacts of climate change. The central question of this paper is to what extent our historically grown institutions enable actors to cope with the new challenges of climate adaptation. We present

The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

2002-07-01

This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

Social Equity Considerations in the Implementation of Caribbean Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilufar Ahmad

2009-07-01

Full Text Available As the Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean prepare to take climate change adaptation measures, there is a distinct possibility that the most vulnerable groups, especially the poor, women, indigenous, elderly, and children in rural and coastal communities are at risk of being marginalized. It is necessary to take into consideration the adaptation needs of these groups that are likely to be disproportionately affected due to inherent structural and social disparities. In this paper we focus on the need to ensure inclusion and social equity in adaptation planning as climate change issues disproportionately impact health, settlement, and livelihoods of these vulnerable groups. We also focus on climate change potential impacts on tourism, agriculture and fisheries sectors, which are the major economic drivers of these island states. Based on Caribbean region wide observations, we recommend priority areas including increasing community participation, local initiatives and filling critical socio-economic and livelihood data gaps, which policy makers need to focus on and incorporate in their climate change adaptation plans in order to ensure effective and equitable climate change adaptation

Impacts of palatal coverage on bolus formation during mastication and swallowing and subsequent adaptive changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, T; Furuya, J; Tamada, Y; Kondo, H

2013-10-01

Palatal coverage is often required for elderly edentulous patients with complete dentures. The purpose of this study was to clarify impacts of palatal coverage on bolus formation and subsequent adaptive changes. Subjects were 18 healthy young dentulous adults who wore 1·5-mm-thick palatal plates. Subjects were asked to feed 12 g of bicoloured rice as usual, and the bolus formation by mastication and swallowing in the pharynx was observed using a nasal videoendoscopy. The bolus formation index (BFI), number of mastication strokes until swallowing, visual analogue scale about swallowing easiness and masticatory performance using colour-changeable gum were measured under three conditions: before placement of the palatal plate (day 0), immediately after placement (day 1) and after 7 days of wearing the plate (day 7). BFI and visual analogue scale on day 1 were significantly lower than those on day 0, but those on day 7 significantly recovered to the level of day 0. The number of mastication strokes did not change from day 0 to day 1, however, that on day 7 was significantly higher. Masticatory performance on days 1 and 7 was significantly lower than that on day 0. Although palatal coverage inhibits bolus formation during feeding, subjects increased the number of mastication strokes until swallowing threshold as they adapted to palatal coverage over time. This adaptive change was due to compensate for the lowered masticatory performance to achieve bolus formation for comfortable swallowing. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Fleming

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

Impact of ethnicity on cardiac adaptation to exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikh, Nabeel; Sharma, Sanjay

2014-04-01

The increasing globalization of sport has resulted in athletes from a wide range of ethnicities emerging onto the world stage. Fuelled by the untimely death of a number of young professional athletes, data generated from the parallel increase in preparticipation cardiovascular evaluation has indicated that ethnicity has a substantial influence on cardiac adaptation to exercise. From this perspective, the group most intensively studied comprises athletes of African or Afro-Caribbean ethnicity (black athletes), an ever-increasing number of whom are competing at the highest levels of sport and who often exhibit profound electrical and structural cardiac changes in response to exercise. Data on other ethnic cohorts are emerging, but remain incomplete. This Review describes our current knowledge on the impact of ethnicity on cardiac adaptation to exercise, starting with white athletes in whom the physiological electrical and structural changes--collectively termed the 'athlete's heart'--were first described. Discussion of the differences in the cardiac changes between ethnicities, with a focus on black athletes, and of the challenges that these variations can produce for the evaluating physician is also provided. The impact of ethnically mediated changes on preparticipation cardiovascular evaluation is highlighted, particularly with respect to false positive results, and potential genetic mechanisms underlying racial differences in cardiac adaptation to exercise are described.

Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2015-01-01

Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

Adapting Towards Climate Change: A Bioeconomic Analysis of Winterwheat and Grain Maize

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.; Klein, T.; Calanca, P.; Walter, A.

2012-01-01

Climate change (CC) will alter the environmental conditions for crop growth. In order to minimize negative CC impacts on cropping systems, farmers will have to adapt their management schemes. In this paper we analyzed CC impacts and adaptation in winterwheat and grain maize production using a

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Selecting a change and evaluating its impact on the performance of a complex adaptive health care delivery system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malaz A Boustani

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Malaz A Boustani1,2,3,4, Stephanie Munger1,2, Rajesh Gulati3,4, Mickey Vogel4, Robin A Beck3,4, Christopher M Callahan1,2,3,41Indiana University Center for Aging Research, 2Regenstrief Institute Inc., 3Indiana University School of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, 4Indiana University Medical Group-Primary Care; Indianapolis, IN USAAbstract: Complexity science suggests that our current health care delivery system acts as a complex adaptive system (CAS. Such systems represent a dynamic and flexible network of individuals who can coevolve with their ever changing environment. The CAS performance fluctuates and its members’ interactions continuously change over time in response to the stress generated by its surrounding environment. This paper will review the challenges of intervening and introducing a planned change into a complex adaptive health care delivery system. We explore the role of the “reflective adaptive process” in developing delivery interventions and suggest different evaluation methodologies to study the impact of such interventions on the performance of the entire system. We finally describe the implementation of a new program, the Aging Brain Care Medical Home as a case study of our proposed evaluation process.Keywords: complexity, aging brain, implementation, complex adaptive system, sustained change, care delivery

Technologies for climate change adaptation. Coastal erosion and flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Linham, M.M.; Nicholls, R.J. (Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom))

2010-11-15

This guidebook is intended to be a practical tool for use by coastal zone managers in developing countries. The aim is to provide best practice guidance and assist these managers in assessing their evolving adaptation needs and help them to prepare action plans for adapting to climate change in the coastal zone. The guidebook first reviews the main physical and societal impacts of climate change in the coastal zone. It then considers the process of adaptation to erosion and flooding/inundation hazards where major impacts may occur and a range of adaptation technologies are best developed. Thirteen of these adaptation technologies are presented in this guide, representing examples of the protect, accommodate or (planned) retreat approaches to adaptation. While this does not represent an exhaustive list of the adaptation technologies that are available, these technologies are among those most widely used/considered in the coastal zone today. All the technologies considered are relevant to climate change adaptation and collectively, more widespread application is expected in the future under climate change and rising sea levels. For each adaptation technology the following issues are addressed: (1) definition and description; (2) technical advantages and disadvantages; (3) institutional and organisational requirements; (4) potential costs and opportunities; and (5) barriers to implementation; followed by a case study example. We have endeavoured to include developing country examples wherever possible, but as there is less activity and less documentation of developing world projects and some technologies are barely used in the developing world, this is not always possible. Knowledge and capacity building requirements and monitoring technologies are considered and contrasted across all 13 adaptation technologies. Finally, more detailed sources are indicated. Each adaptation technology has widely varying advantages and disadvantages. As such, selection of measures

Climate change adaptation in regulated water utilities

Science.gov (United States)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Harou, J. J.; Characklis, G. W.; Ricalde, I.

2017-12-01

Concern about climate change impacts on water supply systems has grown in recent years. However, there are still few examples of pro-active interventions (e.g. infrastructure investment or policy changes) meant to address plausible future changes. Deep uncertainty associated with climate impacts, future demands, and regulatory constraints might explain why utility planning in a range of contexts doesn't explicitly consider climate change scenarios and potential adaptive responses. Given the importance of water supplies for economic development and the cost and longevity of many water infrastructure investments, large urban water supply systems could suffer from lack of pro-active climate change adaptation. Water utilities need to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets on the one side, with insufficient supplies leading to potentially severe socio-economic, political and environmental failures on the other, and need to deal with a range of interests and constraints. This work presents initial findings from a project looking at how cities in Chile, the US and the UK are developing regulatory frameworks that incorporate utility planning under uncertainty. Considering for example the city of Santiago, Chile, recent studies have shown that although high scarcity cost scenarios are plausible, pre-emptive investment to guard from possible water supply failures is still remote and not accommodated by current planning practice. A first goal of the project is to compare and contrast regulatory approaches to utility risks considering climate change adaptation measures. Subsequently we plan to develop and propose a custom approach for the city of Santiago based on lessons learned from other contexts. The methodological approach combines institutional assessment of water supply regulatory frameworks with simulation-based decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Here we present initial work comparing the regulatory frameworks in Chile, UK and USA evaluating

Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

2013-01-01

Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

Climate changes and farmers' endogenous adaptation strategies ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

It has been claimed that climate changes impact studies often assume certain adaptations and little explicit examination of how, when, why, and under what conditions they occur. This research aims at analysing the endogenous strategies developed by farmers in agricultural land and crop management. With random ...

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

2016-04-21

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

Climate change - the impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

2012-01-01

This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

Proceedings of a workshop on coastal impacts and adaptation related to climate change : the C-CIARN Coastal Node

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-03-01

Coastal zones are sensitive to increases in air, sea and ground temperatures as well as to variations in sea level, precipitation, ice thickness, and storm intensity. In order to address concerns regarding climate change in coastal areas, the government of Canada established a Coastal Node as part of the Canadian Climate Impact and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN). The role of C-CIARN Coastal Node was recently outlined in a workshop aimed at providing guidelines and research priorities for stakeholders from all coastal regions of Canada. The workshop considered the integration of the node function with one or more of the regional nodes or with the fisheries node. Topics of discussion included both direct impacts on coastal infrastructure or human-use activities as well as indirect impacts resulting from changes in the ecosystem. refs., tabs

Finland's water resources and climate change. Effects and adaptation. Final report of the WaterAdapt-project; Suomen vesivarat ja ilmastonmuutos; vaikutukset ja muutoksiin sopeutuminen. WaterAdapt-projektin loppuraportti

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veijalainen, N.; Jakkila, J.; Nurmi, T.; Vehvilaeinen, B.; Marttunen, M.; Aaltonen, J.

2012-05-15

In this research climate change impacts on hydrology, water resources and lake regulation were estimated in Finland. Changes in discharges and water levels from the reference period 1971-2000 to periods 2010-39 and 2040-69 were estimated for 15 watersheds based on different climate scenarios and simulations with a hydrological model, the Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS). On ten lakes the impacts of hydrological changes caused by climate change for the different uses and state of the lakes were evaluated. In addition climate change impacts on ground water and floods were estimated. The research was carried out in the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) as part of WaterAdapt (Finland's water resources and climate change - Effects and adaptation) -project financed by the Ministry of agriculture and forestry. Based on the results of the WaterAdapt-project, climate change will significantly change the seasonal variation of river discharges and lake water levels. Spring snowmelt floods will decrease due to warmer winters especially in Southern and Central Finland. An earlier spring will caused decreases in summer water levels in many lakes and low water levels in late summer will become increasingly problematic in some lakes. Water levels and discharges during winter will increase significantly especially in Southern and Central Finland, since a larger proportion of precipitation will fall as rain and snow will melt more during winter. Different climate scenarios produce significantly different results, but the direction of change is similar in all the scenarios. Floods decrease in some parts of Finland due to decreases in snow storage, but according to most climate scenarios increases in precipitation will cause floods to increase in large central lakes and their outflow rivers in large watersheds. The results demonstrate that current regulation permits will become impractical in many lakes when the climate changes. Adaptation to climate changes

How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James D. Ford

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The need to track climate change adaptation progress is being increasingly recognized but our ability to do the tracking is constrained by the complex nature of adaptation and the absence of measurable outcomes or indicators by which to judge if and how adaptation is occurring. We developed a typology of approaches by which climate change adaptation can be tracked globally at a national level. On the one hand, outcome-based approaches directly measure adaptation progress and effectiveness with reference to avoided climate change impacts. However, given that full exposure to climate change impacts will not happen for decades, alternative approaches focus on developing indicators or proxies by which adaptation can be monitored. These include systematic measures of adaptation readiness, processes undertaken to advance adaptation, policies and programs implemented to adapt, and measures of the impacts of these policies and programs on changing vulnerability. While these approaches employ various methods and data sources, and identify different components of adaptation progress to track at the national level, they all seek to characterize the current status of adaptation by which progress over time can be monitored. However, there are significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation actions and outcomes, underlying difficulties of defining what constitutes "adaptation", and a disconnect between the timescale over which adaptation plays out and the practical need for evaluation to inform policy. Given the development of new adaptation funding streams, it is imperative that tools for monitoring progress are developed and validated for identifying trends and gaps in adaptation response.

Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2011-01-01

A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Science.gov (United States)

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robert Lisoe, K.; Aandahl, G.; Eriksen, S.; Alfsen, K.

2003-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. (author)

Community based adaptations to climate change: experiences of the Mijikenda Community in Coastal Kenya

OpenAIRE

Groh, Maxie Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Small-scale farmers in Africa are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Macro level climate change policies are having little positive impacts on their livelihoods. However, at the local level, communities are innovating and adapting to climate change. While these innovations are not enough to guarantee extensive adaptation to climate change, they are an important element for the survival of agrarian societies and botanical diversity. It is therefore importan...

Climate change adaptation: Where does global health fit in the agenda?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bowen Kathryn J

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

OpenAIRE

Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

2018-01-01

Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

2011-11-15

Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

The use of and obstacles to social learning in climate change adaptation initiatives in South Africa

OpenAIRE

Mudombi, Shakespear; Fabricius, Christo; Van Zyl-Bulitta, Verena; Patt, Anthony

2017-01-01

Global environmental change will have major impacts on ecosystems and human livelihoods while challenging the adaptive capacity of individuals and communities. Social learning, an ongoing adaptive process of knowledge generation, reflection and synthesis, may enhance people’s awareness about climate change and its impacts, with positive outcomes for their adaptive capacity. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of factors promoting social learning in climate change adapta...

Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to global environmental change: challenges and pathways for an action-oriented research agenda for middle-income and low-income countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lahsen, M.; Sanchez-Rodriguez, R.; Lankao, P.R.; Dube, P.; Leemans, R.; Gaffney, O.; Mirza, M.; Pinho, P.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Smith, M.S.

2010-01-01

The socio-economic impacts of environmental stresses associated with global environmental change depend to a large extent on how societies organize themselves. Research on climate-related societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is currently underdeveloped, prompting international global

Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shankar Adhikari

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being used to adapt to a changing environment through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. At the household level, livelihood diversification, changes in cropping patterns and farming practices, use of multipurpose plant species and income-generation activities were identified as adaptation strategies. Among major strategies at the community level were community forestry-based climate adaptation plans of action for forest and water resource management. Landscape-level adaptation strategies were large-scale collaborative projects and programs, such as Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Chitwan Annapurna Landscape conservation; which had implications at both the local and landscape-level. A proper blending and integration of adaptation strategies from individual households through to the community and to the landscape level is needed for implementing effective adaptation in the region.

Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2010-05-01

Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

Arctic adaptation and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

1994-01-01

The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian

response impacts in the context of hydrological extremes are considered while the added intangible values (e.g. recreational amenities due to a nice blue-green neighbourhood) of adaptation options are often ignored or underestimated. In order to facilitate the development and implementation of water...... the benefits of provision of positive environmental values and the preservation of water resources. It is found that neglecting intangible values in climate adaptation assessment can easily bias the decision making; the reframed approach hence provide an important tool for assessment of additional benefits...... and costs of such innovative solutions. The thesis points towards an integrated framework for urban drainage adaptation design considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits and costs. The case studies show how the proposed framework can be utilized to manage the anticipated climate change risks...

Barriers and enablers to climate change adaptation in hierarchical governance systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Phuong, Le Thi Hong; Robbert Biesbroek, G.; Wals, Arjen E.J.

2018-01-01

Governments fulfil important roles in increasing the adaptive capacity of local communities to respond to climate change impacts, particularly in developing countries. Existing studies on how governments enable and constrain the ways in which local level communities learn and build their adaptive

Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-17

Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

Urban Planning and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fulvia Pinto

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is a current phenomenon: the temperatures rise, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers melt and the average global sea level is rising. It is expected that these changes will continue and that the extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, will become more frequent and intense. The impact and vulnerability factors for nature, for the economy and for our health are different, depending on the territorial, social and economic aspects. The current scientific debate is focused on the need to formulate effective policies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change. The city plays an important role in this issue: it emits the most greenhouse gas emissions (more than 60% of the world population currently lives in urban areas and the city is more exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Urban planning and territorial governance play a crucial role in this context: the international debate on the sustainability of urban areas is increasing. It’s necessary to adapt the tools of building regulations to increase the quality of energy - environment of the cities.

Climate challenge 2012: growth and climate change - Socio-economical impacts of climate change. Conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orange-Louboutin, Mylene; Robinet, Olivier; Delalande, Daniel; Reysset, Bertrand; De Perthuis, Christian; Le Treut, Herve; Cottenceau, Jean-Baptiste; Ayong, Alain; Daubaire, Aurelien; Gaudin, Thomas

2012-01-01

The contributions of this conference session proposed comments and discussion on the relationship between climate change and 'green' growth, on the status of scientific knowledge on climate change (from global to local), on the way to perform carbon print assessment and to decide which actions to implement, on the costs and opportunity of impacts of climate change, on the economy of adaptation, on the benefits and costs of the adaptation policy, and on impacts of climate change on employment in quantitative terms and in terms of profession types

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

Science.gov (United States)

McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

2014-01-01

Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry

Science.gov (United States)

Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2011-09-01

The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine Cȏntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009

Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2013-07-01

In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-01

The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

Science.gov (United States)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

2013-07-01

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

2013-01-01

This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Felicity; Sabel, Clive E.; Morton, Katherine; Hiscock, Rosemary; Depledge, Michael H.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Incorporates wellbeing into understandings of climate change impacts on health. • Considers a range of secondary impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. • Examines co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for health and wellbeing. • Emphasises the spatially and socially differentiated repercussions of adaptation and mitigation measures. - Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is progressively transforming the environment despite political and technological attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to tackle global warming. Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change. At the same time, incorporating notions of wellbeing enables recognition of both the health co-benefits and dis-benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across different population groups and geographical contexts. The paper recommends that future adaptation and mitigation policies seek to ensure that benefits are available for all since current evidence suggests that they are spatially and socially differentiated, and their accessibility is dependent on a range of contextually specific socio-cultural factors

Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindranath, N H; Sukumar, R [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1998-12-31

Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

1997-12-31

Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolan, A.H.; Smit, B.; Skinner, M.W.; Bradshaw, B.; Bryant, C.R.

2001-01-01

Adaptation was defined as the responses by stakeholders to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change. Planned policy initiatives representing change in the agricultural system were discussed in this report. An evaluation of adaptation options needed to be carried out before one could determine which adaptations should be promoted or implemented. The overall merit, suitability, utility or appropriateness of potential adaptation strategies or measures were examined. One interesting methodology was the Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE), which is designed to assess alternatives using more than one criterion. The criteria selected for this evaluation were: effectiveness, economic efficiency, flexibility, institutional compatibility, farmer implementation, and independent benefits. A selection of three adaptation options was made to better illustrate the utility of the evaluation framework., as follows: crop diversification, adoption of irrigation, and increase use of crop insurance. 122 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs

Social and Policy Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Forests of Belgrade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Živojinović

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Climate change has an impact on economic and natural systems as well as human health. These impacts are particularly visible in urbanised areas. Urban forests, which are one of the main natural features of the cities, are threatened by climate change. Generally, the role of forests in combating climate change is widely recognised and its significance is recognised also in urban areas. However, appropriate responses to climate change are usually lacking in their management. Climate change adaptation in relation to urban forests has been studied less often in comparison to climate change mitigation. Adaptive capacity of forests to climate change consists of adaptive capacity of forests as an ecological system and adaptive capacity of related socio-economic factors. The latter determines the capacity of a system and its actors to implement planned actions. This paper studies social and policy aspects of adaptation processes in urban forests of Belgrade. Materials and Methods: For the purpose of this study content analysis of urban forest policy and management documents was applied. Furthermore, in-depth interviews with urban forest managers and Q-methodology surveys with urban forestry stakeholders were conducted. Triangulation of these data is used to assure validity of results. Results: The results show weak integration of climate change issues in urban forest policy and management documents, as well as weak responses by managers. A comprehensive and systematic approach to this challenge does not exist. Three perspectives towards climate change are distinguished: (I ‘sceptics’ - do not perceive climate change as a challenge, (II ‘general-awareness perspective’ - aware of climate change issues but without concrete concerns toward urban forests, (III ‘management-oriented perspective’ - highlights specific challenges related to urban forest management. Awareness of urban forest managers and stakeholders towards

Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, X [ed.; UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark); Clements, R; Quezada, A; Torres, J [Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru); Haggar, J [Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom)

2011-08-15

This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

Revisiting the concept of adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juvanon Du Vachat, R.

2013-01-01

We clarify what is the adaptation to climate change, as compared to the mitigation (limitation of green-house gases). Adaptation will be necessary in any case in the future climate, even if we stop the emission of these gazes, because of the inertial response of the climatic machinery. We consider some socio-economic sectors like agriculture, viticulture, forestry, where the professionals are largely aware of the concepts of climate change. In these cases they have already defined their adaptation strategy. For other sectors, a classical method proposed by researchers is to study the results of impacts studies, using regional climate models. The limitation of these models is discussed. Then another method is proposed: to create a room for dialogue between researchers in charge of numerical simulations and some stake-holders or representative of the sector. This has been the method used successfully by the Canadian consortium OURANOS. Finally the role of extreme climate events is highlighted, because some reflection and financial evaluation is usually done after their occurrence, even if the link with climate change is not clearly demonstrated. The role of geographers and meteorologists is vigorously encouraged since they have some expertise for defining adaptation strategy. (author)

The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

Science.gov (United States)

Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

2016-01-01

Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

Methodological framework, analytical tool and database for the assessment of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Denmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Halsnaes, K.; Gregg, J.; Drews, M.

2012-12-15

In this report we provide recommendations about how more consistent studies and data can be provided based on available modelling tools and data for integrated assessment of climate change risks and adaptation options. It is concluded that integrated assessments within this area requires the use of a wide range of data and models in order to cover the full chain of elements including climate modelling, impact, risks, costs, social issues, and decision making. As an outcome of this activity a comprehensive data and modelling tool named Danish Integrated Assessment System (DIAS) has been developed, this may be used by researchers within the field. DIAS has been implemented and tested in a case study on urban flooding caused by extreme precipitation in Aarhus, and this study highlights the usefulness of integrating data, models, and methods from several disciplines into a common framework. DIAS is an attempt to describe such a framework with regards to integrated analysis of climate impacts and adaptation. The final product of the DTU KFT project ''Tool for Vulnerability analysis'' is NOT a user friendly Climate Adaptation tool ready for various types of analysis that may directly be used by decision makers and consultant on their own. Rather developed methodology and collected/available data can serve as a starting point for case specific analyses. For this reason alone this work should very much be viewed as an attempt to coordinate research, data and models outputs between different research institutes from various disciplines. It is unquestionable that there is a future need to integrate information for areas not yet included, and it is very likely that such efforts will depend on research projects conducted in different climate change adaptation areas and sectors in Denmark. (Author)

Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

2014-01-01

Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Climate change, adaptation and the environment in central Vietnam

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil

2013-01-01

There is an urgent need for integrated approaches, such as the building of environmental management into climate change responses, addressing the total impact of livelihood stresses in social vulnerability perspectives, and ensuring that overall adaptation policies adequately address social justice...

Stormwater management: adaptation and planning under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mailhot, A.

2009-01-01

'Full text:' Extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in a future climate. Such a change will have an impact on the level of service provided by stormwater infrastructures since the current capacity is based on statistical analyses of past events, assuming that past conditions are representative of future climate conditions. Therefore, an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events will result in increasing runoff volumes and peak discharges that will more frequently exceed the capacity of current systems. For that reason, it is important to look for adaptation measures and to review design criteria in order to maintain an acceptable level of service in the long term. One important challenge related to stormwater management and climate change (CC) is related to the time scale of both the expected lifespan of some system components (that can last up to 100 years) and the horizon of the actual CC projection (50 to 100 years). Pipes currently replaced or installed may consequently experience very different climatic conditions during their lifetime and a general degradation of the level of service may be expected according to the actual CC projections. Among others, this means that the design criteria currently used must be reviewed. This paper intends to review and describe the main issues related to adaptation and planning of stormwater management infrastructures under climate change. More precisely, the following topics will be presented and discussed: 1) what are the available projections for intense rainfall events and what are the main uncertainties related to these projections? (how reliable are they?); 2) what will be the impacts of CC on stormwater management according to available projections? 3) how do we revise design criteria in a changing climate and define the level of service in a context where the return period concept is no longer valid? 4) what kind of adaptation measures can be put forward

Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

2017-01-01

, with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

Adaptation measures for climate change and the urban heat island in Japan's built environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimoda, Y.

2003-01-01

Climate change scenarios are discussed for Japan with clear implications drawn for the built environment in terms of increased temperatures of 4-5 o C, rising sea levels and subterranean water tables. Research on the impacts and adaptation measures for global warming in Japan is reviewed. One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Japan will exacerbate the existing heat island phenomenon in cities by absorbing increased solar radiation. This will lead to further increases in temperatures in an urban microclimate with negative implications for energy and water consumption, human health and discomfort, and local ecosystems. The current urban heat island phenomenon and its impacts are described. The relationships between climate change and urban heat island impacts are discussed. Potential adaptation measures to those impacts are also discussed and proposed. (author)

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Impact assessment of adaptation options and strategies for coping ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Impact assessment of adaptation options and strategies for coping with climate change on the livelihoods of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Sudan' Butana area. Ibrahim, Abdelhamed M.M.. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10625/53410. Date: 2013-11 ...

Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

2010-12-01

The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

Dynamic models of farmers adaptation to climate change (case of rice farmers in Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia)

Science.gov (United States)

Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

Farming activities are generally very sensitive to climate change variations. Global climate change will result in changes of patterns and distribution of rainfall. The impact of changing patterns and distribution of rainfall is the occurrence of early season shifts and periods of planting. Therefore, farmers need to adapt to the occurrence of climate change to avoid the decrease productivity on the farm land. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change adaptation that farmers practiced on the farming productivity. The analysis is conducted dynamically using the Powersim 2.5. The result of analysis shows that the use of Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management technology can increase the rice productivity of certain area unity. Both technologies are the alternatives for farmers to adapt to climate change. Both farmers who adapt to climate change and do not adapt to climate change, experience an increase in rice production, time after time. However, farmers who adapt to climate change, increase their production faster than farmers who do not adapt to climate change. The use of the Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management strategy together as a farmers’ adaptation strategy is able to increase production compared to non-adaptive farmers.

Adaptation of Australia’s Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change: Using Science to Inform Conservation Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johanna E. Johnson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The challenges that climate change poses for marine ecosystems are already manifesting in impacts at the species, population, and community levels in Australia, particularly in Tasmania and tropical northern Australia. Many species and habitats are already under threat as a result of human activities, and the additional pressure from climate change significantly increases the challenge for marine conservation and management. Climate change impacts are expected to magnify as sea surface temperatures, ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, sea level, rainfall, and storm patterns continue to change this century. In particular, keystone species that form the foundation of marine habitats, such as coral reefs, kelp beds, and temperate rocky reefs, are projected to pass thresholds with subsequent implications for communities and ecosystems. This review synthesises recent science in this field: the observed impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change, ecological thresholds of change, and strategies for marine conservation to promote adaptation. Increasing observations of climate-related impacts on Australia’s marine ecosystems—both temperate and tropical—are making adaptive management more important than ever before. Our increased understanding of the impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change provides a focus for “no-regrets” adaptations that can be implemented now and refined as knowledge improves.

Financing climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandryk, M.

2016-01-01

The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

Adapting to the health impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoy, Damian; Roth, Adam; Lepers, Christelle; Durham, Jo; Bell, Johann; Durand, Alexis; Lal, Padma Narsey; Souares, Yvan

2014-12-11

The climate is changing and this poses significant threats to human health. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing Pacific Island countries and territories due to their unique geophysical features, and their social, economic and cultural characteristics. The Pacific region also faces challenges with widely dispersed populations, limited resources and fragmented health systems. Over the past few years, there has been a substantial increase in international aid for health activities aimed at adapting to the threats of climate change. This funding needs to be used strategically to ensure an effective approach to reducing the health risk from climate change. Respecting the principles of development effectiveness will result in more effective and sustainable adaptation, in particular, 1) processes should be owned and driven by local communities, 2) investments should be aligned with existing national priorities and policies, and 3) existing systems must not be ignored, but rather expanded upon and reinforced.

Reconstructing Noah’s ark : Integration of climate change adaptation into Swedish public policy

OpenAIRE

Glaas, Erik

2013-01-01

Due to expected impacts such as flooding, landslides, and biodiversity loss, climate change adaptation has become recognized as an inevitable part of climate change policy and practice. However, our understanding of how to organize the management of adaptation is lacking, and few concrete measures have yet been implemented. Knowledge gaps exist relating to constraints on and opportunities and facilitating factors for adaptation. This study aims to fill such gaps by analyzing how Swedish clima...

Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

2014-01-01

phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad......In a Danish context, climate changes are primarily manifested in an interaction between modified wind and precipitation patterns, increasing temperature and a rising sea level. The individual factors often act together and are reinforced in interaction with already known natural and cultural...

Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

2014-01-01

Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation

OpenAIRE

Kousky, Carolyn; Cooke, Roger

2009-01-01

Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting the interdependencies between these risks. In this paper we focus on three particular phenomena of climate related risks that will require a change in our thinking about risk management: global micro-cor...

Adapting to the impacts of climate change and variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortsch, L.; Koshida, G.; Tavares, D.

1993-05-01

A workshop was held to encourage awareness of the climate change impact issues and build collaboration among the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence basin (GLSLB) research, resource management, and policy-making community; to identify research opportunities to address the issues of water management, ecosystem health, human health, and land use and management; and to recommend directions and priority areas for future studies to develop an integrated climate impact assessment for the GLSLB. Presentations at the workshop were on topics including an overview of the GLSLB Project, the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand, and impacts on water quality, fisheries, wetlands, agriculture, shoreline management, and human health. Panel sessions were also convened to discuss information requirements that would assist in decision- and policy-making and to address the concept of integration. Working groups on water management, ecosystem health, land use and management, and human health were formed and made recommendations. A synthesis is presented of the reports from and recommendations of the four working groups as well as extended abstracts of the plenary presentations. A separate abstract has been prepared for one of the presentations from this workshop

Adaptive filtering and change detection

CERN Document Server

Gustafsson, Fredrik

2003-01-01

Adaptive filtering is a classical branch of digital signal processing (DSP). Industrial interest in adaptive filtering grows continuously with the increase in computer performance that allows ever more conplex algorithms to be run in real-time. Change detection is a type of adaptive filtering for non-stationary signals and is also the basic tool in fault detection and diagnosis. Often considered as separate subjects Adaptive Filtering and Change Detection bridges a gap in the literature with a unified treatment of these areas, emphasizing that change detection is a natural extensi

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

Adaptation to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

2015-01-01

Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism: Impact and Adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impact of climate change on plant-based tourist activities. Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide. However, fruit maturity dates (FMD have been affected by climate change (CC, which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourism activities (FPTA. In this paper, phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980–2012, dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals, and data on monthly average air temperature in 1980–2013 were used to assess the impact of CC on FPTA by wavelet and correlation analyses. The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC. Prevailing temperatures at one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD. Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA, the FMD of four were significantly advanced, while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature. Of the 11 FPTA, only two had realized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes. However, a considerable number of festival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends.

Flooded bus barns and buckled rails: public transportation and climate change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

The objective of this project is to provide transit professionals with information and analysis relevant to adapting U.S. public transportation assets and services to climate change impacts. Climate impacts such as heat waves and flooding will hinder...

Adapting legume crops to climate change using genomic approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Mousavi-Derazmahalleh, Mahsa; Bayer, Philipp E; Hane, James K; Babu, Valliyodan; Nguyen, Henry T; Nelson, Matthew N; Erskine, William; Varshney, Rajeev K; Papa, Roberto; Edwards, David

2018-03-30

Our agricultural system and hence food security is threatened by combination of events, such as increasing population, the impacts of climate change and the need to a more sustainable development. Evolutionary adaptation may help some species to overcome environmental changes through new selection pressures driven by climate change. However, success of evolutionary adaptation is dependent on various factors, one of which is the extent of genetic variation available within species. Genomic approaches provide an exceptional opportunity to identify genetic variation that can be employed in crop improvement programs. In this review, we illustrate some of the routinely used genomics-based methods as well as recent breakthroughs, which facilitate assessment of genetic variation and discovery of adaptive genes in legumes. While additional information is needed, the current utility of selection tools indicate a robust ability to utilize existing variation among legumes to address the challenges of climate uncertainty. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adimo, A.O.; Njoroge, J.B.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Wamocho, L.S.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological

Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaclyn Paterson

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

Perception, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Irrigated Paddy Farmer Community to Face Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siska Rasiska Suantapura

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change has a real impact on the condition of agriculture in developing countries, including Indonesia. Irrigated paddy farmers are the ones really feeling the impact of climate change. Therefore, we need to understand the perceptions, mitigation and adaptation strategies of irrigated paddy farmer community to face climate change. The study is conducted in Indramayu and Tasikmalaya Regency in West Java by using descriptive survey method, regression analysis and path analysis through Structural Equation Modelling approach with Lisrel TM 8.5. The results showes that: (1 changes to climate variability affects the productivity of rice; (2 perception of irrigated paddy farmer community on climate change and its affects are influenced by internal and external factors; and (3 adaptation strategy are influenced by internal and external factors, whereas no mitigation strategy. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation strategies with site specific location are very necessary improving climate information services, increasing empowerment of farmers through field schools, and providing the provision of facilities that are practical and adaptive to climate.

Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

2011-10-15

Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

The impacts of climate change in Aquitaine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Treut, Herve; Baldi, Isabelle; Bonneton, Philippe; Budzinski, Helene; Caill-Milly, Nathalie; D'Amico, Frank; Dupuy, Alain; Etcheber, Henri; Grousset, Francis; Kremer, Antoine; Ollat, Nathalie; Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Prouzet, Patrick; Salles, Denis; Sautour, Benoit; Villenave, Eric

2013-01-01

This article presents a book which addresses the impacts of climate change in the Aquitaine region by 2030-2050 in order to prepare the adaptation of the main economic sectors. Several fields are addressed: agriculture and wine-growing, forestry, estuaries, coasts and sea resources. The book examines two aspects of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation and adaptation. Two scenarios are studied: a global temperature increase of 2 degrees, and a global temperature increase between 4 and 5 degrees. As examples of this study, this article gives an overview of these issues of mitigation and adaptation in four domains: forests, wine-growing, air quality, and health

Key principles for adapting South African settlement patterns to climate change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Van Wyk, Llewellyn

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify key principles for adapting SA settlement patterns to climate change. Section 1 reviews the range of climate-related impacts likely to affect SA settlements using climate change models and scenarios as a context...

Two key concepts of the society-climate change interface: vulnerability and adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magnan, Alexandre

2010-06-01

Vulnerability and adaptation are two inseparable concepts, each being dependent on the other. Although they are extremely sensitive to the contextual specificities of particular areas, vulnerability reduction and adaptation strategies can only be developed at the interface between different spatial and temporal scales. This leads us to assert that faced with a common threat - climate change -, different types of vulnerability and adaptation exist. The aim of this text is to provide an overview of two concepts that can no longer be ignored in discussions on climate change: vulnerability and adaptation. These are two pillars for analysing both the potential impact of climate change on societies and regions, and also their ability to live with these consequences. We will begin by describing how the interdependence of these two concepts explains the position(s) of present and future societies in the face of climate change impacts. We will then show that they share certain determinants that may themselves provide an appropriate framework for analysis. Finally, we will insist on the fact that these two concepts nevertheless remain extremely difficult to grasp, as they require a multi-scalar and multi-temporal approach to regions, which also explains why they are a relevant response to the challenges posed by climate change. The conclusion will call for wider discussion, reiterating that since their nature is fundamentally linked to the diversity and specificities of regions and societies, we must accept the idea that faced with the same threat - climate change - there are different types of vulnerability and adaptation. (author)

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

[Impacts of climate change on summer maize production and adaptive selection of varieties in Xingtai County, Hebei, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hong-Fei; Chen, Xin-Ping; Cui, Zhen-Ling; Meng, Qing-Feng

2014-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture production and the underlying mechanism in North China Plain is important to take effective adaptations for national food security. Using Hybrid-Maize model, this paper investigated the impacts of climate change on summer maize yield potential and famers' adaptation by changing varieties with longer growth periods from 1981 to 2010 in Xingtai County, Hebei Province. Results showed a significant warming trend with the average temperature increasing by 0.49 degrees C x 10 a(-1) since the 1980s. Both solar radiation and sunshine hours decreased significantly since the 1980s. The sunshine hours decreased by 0.56 h x d(-1) x 10 a(-1) and the solar radiation decreased by 265.1 MJ x m(-2) x 10 a(-1), while the precipitation kept constant with large variation among years since 1981. Yield potentials of both irrigated and rainfed maize were simulated to decrease by 0.63-0.64 Mg x hm(-2) x 10 a(-1) since 1981 if varieties were assumed fixed with the 1980s. This was mainly due to the decrease of solar radiation during the maize growth season and the shortened growth stage by warming, and around 60% of grain yield decrease was attributed to the decreased solar radiation. In practice, by changing varieties with longer growth periods, the growing degree days of varieties adopted by local farmers since the 2000s increased by 19% (280 degrees C) compared to the 1980s, and consequently the yield potential was simulated to increase by 34%-40% (2.73-3.40 Mg x hm(-2)) for both irrigated and rainfed maize.

Danish and Australian Television: The Impact of Format Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Pia Majbritt

2007-01-01

influences local television markets and leads to changes according to local competitive, financial, cultural and political conditions. It explores the impact of format adaptation on Danish and Australian prime-time schedules between 1995 and 2004/05, and its effect on local content and genres among the main...

Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yu, Q.; Wu, W.; Liu, Z.; Verburg, P.H.; Xia, T.; Yang, P.; Lu, Z.; You, L.; Tang, H.

2014-01-01

Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change)

Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Planning in African Cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Gertrud; Herslund, Lise Byskov; Lund, Dorthe Hedensted

2014-01-01

Resilience of urban structures towards impacts of a changing climate is one of the emerging tasks that cities all over the world are facing at present. Effects of climate change take many forms, depending on local climate, spatial patterns, and socioeconomic structures. Cities are only just...... beginning to be aware of the task, and some time will pass before it is integrated into mainstream urban governance. This chapter is based on work in progress. It covers urban governance and planning aspects of climate change adaptation as studied in the CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa), as well as some experiences from Denmark. Focus is on the responses and capacities of urban authorities, strengths and weaknesses of the efforts, data needs and possible ways forward. The chapter concludes that many adaptation activities are taking place in the CLUVA case cities...

Assessing the likely impacts of climate change on infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holper, Paul; Nolan, Michael

2007-01-01

Full text: In 2005, the Victorian Government contracted CSIRO, Maunsell Australia and Phillips Fox to undertake an overview assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on the State's infrastructure, establish the categories of infrastructure most at risk and outline opportunities for adaptation responses. The Government released the assessment in May 2007. Climate change poses a significant risk to infrastructure and its owners, managers and long-term operators. The work was undertaken on the basis that it should not be assumed that future climate and its impacts will simply be an extension of what has been experienced in the past. Major infrastructure items have long useful life spans (20-100 years). A bridge built today is expected to still be in use in tens, if not hundreds, of years. This means that recognition of likely climate change impacts and appropriate adaptation measures should occur now. Recognition of the risks associated with climate change is a valuable first step towards better planning of new infrastructure investments and reducing potential damage to existing infrastructure.lnfrastructure types examined were water, power, telecommunications, transport and buildings. The climate change projections used in this report are based on CSIRO climate modelling, supported by findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic and other variables considered were temperature, rainfall, available moisture, humidity, winds, fire-weather frequency and intensity, solar radiation levels and sea-level rise. For each climate change variable identified, we described a worst-case impact for low and high climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070. The assessment was made on the basis of 'business as usual' with no adaptation responses to climate change. The report also details the current governance structures associated with each infrastructure type. Overall, the report assessed the likely impact of climate change on

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

2010-01-01

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

2011-11-15

Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability: The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

OpenAIRE

Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

2011-01-01

Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrate adaptive human agency. Richards’ concept of ‘agriculture as performance’ is useful in counterbalancing the modelling approach to adaptation because it highlights how adaptive processes and techno...

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing-Guo Mo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9% in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

Science.gov (United States)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Foreign-funded adaptation to climate change in Africa : Mirroring administrative traditions or traditions of administrative blueprinting?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M. Vink (Martinus); G. Schouten (Greetje)

2018-01-01

markdownabstractClimate change impacts are most severe in developing countries with limited adaptive capacity. Accordingly, in Africa, climate change adaptation has become an issue of international funding and practice. As suggested in the Introduction to this special issue, administrative

Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2005-08-15

The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Parey, Sylvie; Bernardara, Pietro; Donat, Markus G.

2010-05-01

Climate change is underway and even if mitigation measures are successfully implemented, societies will have to adapt to new climatic conditions in the near future and further. This session had been proposed to gather different studies dedicated to the climate change impact on some human activities, and discuss the possible ways of adaptation. Climate change is often presented in terms of global mean temperature evolutions, but what is important for adaptation concerns the local evolutions, and rather of the variability and extremes than of the mean of the involved meteorological parameters. In the session, studies and applications will be presented, covering different economical and industrial activities, such as energy production, (re-) insurance and risk assessment, water management or tourism.

On the frontiers of climate and environmental change. Vulnerabilities and adaptions in central Vietnam

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil (eds.) [Roskilde Univ. (Denmark). Dept. of Society and Globalization

2013-06-01

Based on new research in Central Vietnam with inputs from a range of disciplines. Suggests a broader, interdisciplinary approach to climate change adaptation and environmental planning. Advises steps on how to formulate a research framework for analyses of social and economic impacts of climate changes, using both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Concludes that climate change adaptation will not be successful unless integrated with environmental planning takes into account local man-made environmental changes, such as hydropower construction and changing forestry and land-use patterns. This book is intended to fill a gap in climate-change literature by providing a comprehensive regional study and identifying the overall adaptation challenges in a real-life context. The way in which possible climate impacts interact with a range of other challenges in agriculture, forestry, disaster planning, health care, general economic development, and common livelihoods are presented, and it is argued that greater realism and broader vision are needed in order to address the climate challenge. For instance, unsuitable land- use changes in both coastal and highland regions may increase the vulnerability of rural people, many of whom are already living on the fringes. The author(s) also state(s) that, depending on context, it may be pertinent to address short-term and unsustainable resource use, irregularities in local land management, ineffective governance and social inequality, which are all likely to aggravate the impact of external climate and weather. Not least, it is imperative to integrate general environmental management with any climate-change adaptation effort.

Climate change adaptation in South Korea. Environmental politics in the agricultural sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, Susann [Jena Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economic Geography

2015-07-01

Climate change will impact ecosystems and production processes. Thus, adaptation to climate change has become a prevalent concept in environmental politics worldwide. In South Korea, climate change is expected to be above the global average. As response, the South Korean government has initiated climate change adaptation in diverse sectors. In this book, the entire process, from formulation and development, implementation and reaction of involved people is examined in a particular sector, agriculture. Theoretically framed as an Actor-Network, this study highlights current developments of South Korean politics, the tensions of urban-periphery development, and the status of agriculture.

Climate change adaptation in South Korea. Environmental politics in the agricultural sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaefer, Susann

2015-01-01

Climate change will impact ecosystems and production processes. Thus, adaptation to climate change has become a prevalent concept in environmental politics worldwide. In South Korea, climate change is expected to be above the global average. As response, the South Korean government has initiated climate change adaptation in diverse sectors. In this book, the entire process, from formulation and development, implementation and reaction of involved people is examined in a particular sector, agriculture. Theoretically framed as an Actor-Network, this study highlights current developments of South Korean politics, the tensions of urban-periphery development, and the status of agriculture.

Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smit, B.

1991-01-01

A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

Coastal Hazards and Integration of Impacts in Local Adaptation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Knudsen, P.; Sorensen, C.; Molgaard, M. R.; Broge, N. H.; Andersen, O. B.

2016-12-01

Data on sea and groundwater levels, precipitation, land subsidence, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with information on flood and erosion protection measures to analyze water-related impacts from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Future sea extremes will have a large impact but several coupled effects in the hydrological system need to be considered as well to provide for optimal protection and mitigation efforts. For instance, the investment and maintenance costs of securing functional water and wastewater pipes are significantly reduced by incorporating knowledge about climate change. The translation of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures should take into account the potentially affected stakeholders who must collaborate on common and shared adaptation solutions. Here, knowledge integration across levels of governance and between research, private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and a common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts of climate change. By construction of a common working platform that is updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from future regional models or extreme events, advances in sea level research can more readily be translated into concrete and local impact measures in a way that handles uncertainties in the future climate and urban development as well as suiting the varying stakeholder needs.

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2012-01-01

Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However,

Adapting to climate change in forest based land use systems: A guide to strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Secrett, C M

1997-12-31

The prospect of climate change and sea level rise as a result of greenhouse gas emissions presents a serious challenge to decision-makers concerned with ensuring sustainable development. This report provides a guide to means of reducing the potential impact of the global warming problem on the forest sector whilst ensuring that more immediate development priorities are met. The most effective response strategy will be one that simultaneously brings both immediate development and longer-term adaptive benefits. This report outlines ways of constructing an adaptive response strategy that can help achieve these ends. The approach is referred to as sustainable adaptation. A prototype methodological framework of the sustainable adaptation approach has been provided with the summary. The first priority of sustainable adaption is to base climate change responses on actions that meet basic ecological and social needs now and in the future. Solutions should necessarily include relieving current development pressures in the tropical forest sector. The key is to couple adaptive responses to climate change with sustainable development solutions to present-day forest use problems. Implementing adaptive land-use policies and management practices which are likely to minimise the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change should meet current sustainable management goals. Implementing sustainable land-use and forestry management practices should meet adaptation goals. This report presents a discussion of the fundamental issues underlying the development of a sustainable adaptation strategy and a prototype methodological framework. The findings are based on case studies conducted in Central America (Costa Rica and Nicaragua); SADCC countries in Africa (Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania); and Asia (Vietnam). 450 refs

Adapting to climate change in forest based land use systems: A guide to strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Secrett, C.M.

1996-12-31

The prospect of climate change and sea level rise as a result of greenhouse gas emissions presents a serious challenge to decision-makers concerned with ensuring sustainable development. This report provides a guide to means of reducing the potential impact of the global warming problem on the forest sector whilst ensuring that more immediate development priorities are met. The most effective response strategy will be one that simultaneously brings both immediate development and longer-term adaptive benefits. This report outlines ways of constructing an adaptive response strategy that can help achieve these ends. The approach is referred to as sustainable adaptation. A prototype methodological framework of the sustainable adaptation approach has been provided with the summary. The first priority of sustainable adaption is to base climate change responses on actions that meet basic ecological and social needs now and in the future. Solutions should necessarily include relieving current development pressures in the tropical forest sector. The key is to couple adaptive responses to climate change with sustainable development solutions to present-day forest use problems. Implementing adaptive land-use policies and management practices which are likely to minimise the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change should meet current sustainable management goals. Implementing sustainable land-use and forestry management practices should meet adaptation goals. This report presents a discussion of the fundamental issues underlying the development of a sustainable adaptation strategy and a prototype methodological framework. The findings are based on case studies conducted in Central America (Costa Rica and Nicaragua); SADCC countries in Africa (Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania); and Asia (Vietnam). 450 refs

Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bevaola Kusumasari

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This research strives to provide answers regarding adaptation patterns of farmers in confronting climate change in Indonesia. The method utilized for this research is a mixed method. Qualitative data was acquired through a series of focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with farmers and agricultural stakeholders in Gunung Kidul and Sleman, Indonesia. Additionally, the survey was carried out to 220 farmers in both research locations. The two research locations were chosen based on the difference in agricultural land. The findings of this research show that farmers understand climate change is occurring in their region and it influences their cultivation method. Farmers utilize their personal experiences as well as local practices in adapting to climate change. The impact most felt by farmers is crop failure and a decrease in quality and quantity of agricultural crops. The ensuing implication is that farmer’s income declines more and more. This research found that agricultural product cost increased by almost as much as 50%, whilst farmer’s income merely increased half of that, which is 25% since climate change has affected their farming. Responding to the matter, the strategy farmers employ is by changing the planting pattern, using soil cultivation technique, plant pest management technique, and watering/irrigation technique.

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

2011-01-01

Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-01-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO 2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO 2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

Danish and Australian Television: The Impact of Format Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Pia Majbritt

2007-01-01

influences local television markets and leads to changes according to local competitive, financial, cultural and political conditions. It explores the impact of format adaptation on Danish and Australian prime-time schedules between 1995 and 2004/05, and its effect on local content and genres among the main......Format adaptation plays an increasingly important part in international television. Formats such as Dancing with the Stars and Idol are screened in many territories. The article presents an in-depth case study of how this relatively new and highly internationalised production and business model...

Climate change impacts on German cities and actions for preserving quality of life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schetke Sophie

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Also German cities -as many other cities worldwide- will be affected by impacts of climate change. Starting from the German Adaptation Strategy to climate change, the paper presents a short literature review on impacts of climate change and on fields of action for German municipalities and urban planners to adapt to it. The literature review shows that main negative impacts of climate change in Germany are due to rising temperatures and cities will also need to cope with altered precipitation regimes. But also positive impacts such as reduced heating costs are reported. Additionally, the paper highlights a second phenomenon, which also causes specific demands for urban planners regarding human health and quality of life in German cities: demographic change. Altering demographic patterns within the society will lead to altered demands for healthy living conditions. Moreover, findings from the literature show that specific groups of the society - such as the elderly - are especially vulnerable towards impacts of climate change. A concrete sensitivity towards overheating or bad air is reported. Both phenomena may simultaneously impact on German urban structures and will demand closer attention now and in the future. Consequently, specific fields of action to adapt to climate change will be presented highlighting their possible contribution sustaining quality of life in cities.

Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

Climate change effects and adaptation strategies in the wine sector: a quantitative literature review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandro Sacchelli

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a quantitative literature review focusing on how scientific research analysed climate change impact on wine chain as well as potential adaptation strategies. The work is based on content analysis and text mining and takes into account researches from 1990 to 2015. A particular emphasis was given to the evaluation of suggested or implemented adaptation strategies at both global and national levels. Data were analysed using cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling and specificity evaluation. Results show that the study of climate change impacts on the wine sector is a recently emerging research topic. Adaptation strategies have not yet been explored thoroughly in the literature, and in-depth uncertainty quantification is also needed. Finally, additional research gaps and potential future issues are suggested.

Global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Greenstone, M.

2017-12-01

Empirically-based and plausibly causal estimates of the damages of climate change are greatly needed to inform rapidly developing global and local climate policies. To accurately reflect the costs of climate change, it is essential to estimate how much populations will adapt to a changing climate, yet adaptation remains one of the least understood aspects of social responses to climate. In this paper, we develop and implement a novel methodology to estimate climate impacts on mortality rates. We assemble comprehensive sub-national panel data in 41 countries that account for 56% of the world's population, and combine them with high resolution daily climate data to flexibly estimate the causal effect of temperature on mortality. We find the impacts of temperature on mortality have a U-shaped response; both hot days and cold days cause excess mortality. However, this average response obscures substantial heterogeneity, as populations are differentially adapted to extreme temperatures. Our empirical model allows us to extrapolate response functions across the entire globe, as well as across time, using a range of economic, population, and climate change scenarios. We also develop a methodology to capture not only the benefits of adaptation, but also its costs. We combine these innovations to produce the first causal, micro-founded, global, empirically-derived climate damage function for human health. We project that by 2100, business-as-usual climate change is likely to incur mortality-only costs that amount to approximately 5% of global GDP for 5°C degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels. On average across model runs, we estimate that the upper bound on adaptation costs amounts to 55% of the total damages.

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

2013-01-01

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...

Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

2018-06-01

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption in Cities by Utilizing Green Infrastructure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Davidson, Cliff I.; Jindal, Ranjina

infrastructure frameworks with indicators from green building rating systems (LEED 2009, BCA Green Mark 4.0, CASBEE, and TREES-NC 1.0). The climate change mitigation and adaptation framework addresses benefits from applying different GI technologies as well as limitations in existing rating systems and the green......Climate change has threatened global security of ecosystems, human health and natural resources. These threats have increased demand for various mitigation technology solutions as well as effective strategies for adapting to anticipated impacts. Green infrastructure (GI) technologies such as green...... roofs and urban forestry are viewed as ones of the best climate adaptation strategies in cities. This study aims to develop a framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) in cities by using green infrastructure technologies. The framework is established by integrating existing green...

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiricka, Alexandra; Formayer, Herbert; Schmidt, Anna; Völler, Sonja; Leitner, Markus; Fischer, Thomas B.; Wachter, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiricka, Alexandra, E-mail: alexandra.jiricka@boku.ac.at [University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria); Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna (Austria); Formayer, Herbert; Schmidt, Anna [University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria); Department of Landscape, Spatial and Infrastructure Sciences, Institute for Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna (Austria); Völler, Sonja; Leitner, Markus [Environment Agency Austria, Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Wien (Austria); Fischer, Thomas B. [Environmental Assessment and Management, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, 74 Bedford Street South, Liverpool L69 7ZQ (United Kingdom); Wachter, Thomas F. [Büro für Umweltplanung Dr. Wachter, Wiesnerring 2c, Hamburg (Germany)

2016-02-15

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without

Cities and adaptation to climate change. Report to the Prime Minister and to the Parliament

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The first part of this report sets the general problematic framework: positive and negative impacts of climate change on cities, city vulnerability factors, and adaptation ways to reduce urban vulnerability. The second part addresses adaptation strategies. It is based on an analysis of the implementation of adaptation actions by several French and foreign cities. It highlights levers and obstacles for adaptation, and identifies other policies which could support the adaptation effort. It also highlights the recent multidisciplinary dynamics of research on the sustainable city, and the implementation of projects for the reduction of city vulnerability and the adaptation of cities to climate change. Some programs are presented in appendix

Distributional Aspects of Climate Change Impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, R.S.J. Tol; Kuik, O.J.; Downing, T.; Smith, J.B.

2003-01-01

This paper gives a brief review about the state of knowledge on the distributional aspects of climate change impacts. The paper is largely limited to the distribution of impacts between countries (in Section 2). Although there are virtually no estimates reported in the literature, the distribution of impacts within countries is also important. Impact estimates for different sectors (agriculture, health, sea level rise) provides little guidance for estimating differential impacts within countries. It is even harder to find estimates based on social classes. The paper restricts itself to equity about the consequences of climate change. Equity issues about the consequences of emission reduction are ignored here, but should of course be part of a policy analysis. Equity issues about procedures for decision making are also ignored. The paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews recent estimates of the regional impacts of climate change. Section 3 discusses alternative ways of aggregating regional impact estimates. Section 4 focusses on the vulnerability of the poor to climate change impacts, both with respect to exposure as well as to their limited capacity for adaptation. Section 5 discusses the impacts of economic development and other dynamic changes on vulnerability. The paper abstains from a discussion of aggregating climate change impacts over time, partly because the literature on that is too substantial to be reviewed here, and partly because, under virtually all scenarios, the current generation is the poorest and therefore particularly worthy in equity considerations. In Section 6 we present salient conclusions

Climate change and adaptation policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Jamie [Policy Research Initiative, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Lavender, B. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Smit, B. [Guelph Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Burton, I.

2001-12-31

In this document the authors indicate that some level of adaptation will be required as climate change affects our lives. They narrowed their examination to three sectors of Canadian society: human health, agriculture, and northern communities and infrastructure. Within each sector they discussed the policy research needs and the adaptation problems to be expected. Uncertainties remain concerning the magnitude of climate change, its timing and consequences, and further research is required to reduce the uncertainties. Canada presents certain vulnerabilities, and to enhance and improve the resilience of the population toward climate change, some adaptation measures must be put in place to reduce the vulnerabilities. Confidence will come as a by-product of the leadership required to bring about the required adaptation measures, and cooperation is a must between all levels of government, the private sector and society to reach agreement.

Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to anthropogenic climate change in many regions of the world. The choice of adaptation strategies can and should be based on a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options...... presented is based on a flood risk framework that is in accordance with the EU flood directive, but adapted and extended to incorporate anticipated future changes due to city development and hydrologic extremes. The framework is used to study the importance of inherent uncertainties in order to find robust......-effective regardless of the uncertainties from climate change impacts and /or damage estimation procedure when considering the ability to reduce the risk of flooding. The description of the correlation structure between the key inputs proved to be important in order to obtain a correct description of the resulting...

Climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Kinzig, Ann P.

2015-03-01

This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.

Science.gov (United States)

van Oort, Pepijn A J; Zwart, Sander J

2018-03-01

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

2013-09-01

Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

Climate change adaptability of cropping and farming systems for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Justes, Eric; Rossing, Walter; Vermue, Anthony

systems to CC through a gradient of adaptation strategies. Methods: The adaptation strategies are evaluated at cropping and farming systems as well as regional levels for nine “Adaptation Pilots” along a North-South climate gradient in the EU. Three categories of strategies are evaluated: i) Resistance...... and foster learning in participatory co-design workshops. Results and expectations: The expected results of the Climate-CAFE on-going project will produce an overview of potential CC adaptation measures for selected sites across the EU, along with mutual learning experiences for improved understanding......Introduction: Prospective studies showed that the European agriculture will be impacted by climate change (CC) with different effects depending on the geographic region. The ERA-Net+ project Climate-CAFE (call of FACCE-JPI) aims to improve the “adaptive capacity” of arable and forage based farming...

Adapting to climate change by water management organisations: Enablers and barriers

Science.gov (United States)

Azhoni, Adani; Jude, Simon; Holman, Ian

2018-04-01

Climate change will be particularly experienced though the medium of water. Water organisations, that are managing societal and ecological needs for water, are therefore likely to experience the impact the most. This study reviews the current literature regarding adaptation to climate change by water management organisations and associated barriers. Literature on adaptive capacity is growing and a general consensus is emerging on the determinants of adaptive capacity, although variations exist regarding how it is to be evaluated, enhanced and applied to policy making due to its dynamic, contextual and latent nature. Since adaptive capacity is hard to measure and successful adaptation difficult to define, some studies focus on the existence of adaptation attributes of organisations. Studies reporting successful adaptation are minimal and barriers of adaptation are being discovered as adaptation research transitions into implementation. But the root causes of these barriers are often overlooked and the interconnectedness of the barriers is poorly addressed. Increasingly, combining top-down and bottom-up approaches to adaptation is being recommended due to the limitations of each. However, knowledge regarding how organisations operating at different scales can enhance adaptive capacity of other organisations operating at another scale is lacking due to the few studies of inter-organisational networks across scales. Social networks among actors are recognised as a key factor to enable adaptation. However, network studies generally focus on individual actors and rarely between public agencies/organisations. Moreover, the current literature is inadequate to understand the relationship between adaptation enabling characteristics, barriers and adaptation manifestation. The review demonstrates that research on understanding the emergence and sustenance of barriers is urgently required. Addressing these knowledge gaps will help to improve the design of adaptation strategies

Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Åsa Holmner

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.

Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Holmner, Åsa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

2012-01-01

Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT)’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies. PMID:22679398

Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A

2011-05-21

Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on

Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

2014-08-01

Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

Modelling exploratio of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change - Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kramer, K.; Degen, B.; Buschbom, J.; Hickler, T.; Thuiller, W.; Sykes, M.T.; Winter, de W.P.

2010-01-01

We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional

Successfully Adapting to Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Baird, James R.

1989-01-01

Describes methods used to successfully adapt to reductions in budget allocations in the University of Utah's Instructional Media Services Department. Three main areas of concern are addressed: morale and staff development; adapting to change in the areas of funding, control, media priorities, and technology; and planning for the future. (LRW)

Adapting to climate change : an introduction for Canadian municipalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehdi, B.

2006-02-01

Climate change studies have indicated that Canada will experience large shifts in weather patterns in the next few decades due to both natural variations as well as human activities that release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's average surface temperature is expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C over the period 1990-2100. The use of fossils fuels in transportation, manufacturing, heating, cooling, and electricity generation is the biggest source of GHGs such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The rest comes from land use activities, such as agriculture and forestry. Total GHG emissions in Canada amounted to 740 megatonnes in 2003. Municipalities are directly and indirectly responsible for almost half of those emissions. This document outlined decision-making processes to help municipal governments make informed decisions and take appropriate mitigative action. Topics of discussion focused on the effect of global warming on public health, agriculture, water, coastline and marine management. Among the impacts of climate change are droughts; diminished and lower quality surface water; a higher incidence of vector-borne diseases; more frequent heat waves with discomfort in urban centres; and, an increase in storm surges in coastal regions. The greatest concerns for most municipalities are intense precipitation, heavy winds, or ice storms. Examples of how 6 Canadian communities are starting to address climate change adaptation were presented in the hope that these examples will help raise awareness of climate change impacts in other communities and provide ideas as to how these challenges might be addressed. The Toronto Heat-Health Alert System, the Greater Vancouver Regional District Stormwater Management Program, the Halifax Regional Municipality ClimateSMART Initiative, Sept-Iles' Shoreline Erosion Program, the City of Iqaluit Sustainable Development strategy and the Tidal

Climate change impacts health in Tunisia | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-03-26

Mar 26, 2012 ... Research is showing that climate change is having major impacts on human health. Weather-related disasters are on the rise and water- and vector-borne diseases are spreading. Strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change may also pose unforeseen health risks. Read more about a project in ...

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Cities: A Global Baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

Araos, Malcolm; Austin, Stephanie E; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D

2016-01-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on human health, and urban populations are expected to be highly sensitive. The health risks from climate change in cities are compounded by rapid urbanization, high population density, and climate-sensitive built environments. Local governments are positioned to protect populations from climate health risks, but it is unclear whether municipalities are producing climate-adaptive policies. In this article, we develop and apply systematic methods to assess the state of public health adaptation in 401 urban areas globally with more than 1 million people, creating the first global baseline for urban public health adaptation. We find that only 10% of the sampled urban areas report any public health adaptation initiatives. The initiatives identified most frequently address risks posed by extreme weather events and involve direct changes in management or behavior rather than capacity building, research, or long-term investments in infrastructure. Based on our characterization of the current urban health adaptation landscape, we identify several gaps: limited evidence of reporting of institutional adaptation at the municipal level in urban areas in the Global South; lack of information-based adaptation initiatives; limited focus on initiatives addressing infectious disease risks; and absence of monitoring, reporting, and evaluation. © The Author(s) 2015.

Economics of adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perthuis, Ch.; Hallegatte, St.; Lecocq, F.

2010-02-01

This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogmans, Christian W.J.; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van

2017-01-01

When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come. - Highlights: • We analyze adaptation to climate change by thermal power plants. • A numerical investment model is applied to a coal plant and a nuclear power plant. • The numerical analysis is based on climate and hydrological projections. • Climate change information has a relatively small effect on a power plant's NPV. • Uncertainty and no-regret benefits lower the value of climate change information.

Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Their Implications in the Zou Department of South Benin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adégnandjou Mahouna Roland Fadina

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on agricultural activities in developing countries has increased dramatically. Understanding how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt to it is very important to the implementation of adequate policies for agricultural and food security. This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of farmers’ adaptation choices, determinants of the adaptation choices and the long-term implications of the adaptation choices. Data were collected from 120 respondents in the Zou Department of Benin. A binary logit model was used to analyze the factors influencing household decisions to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was estimated to analyze the factors influencing households’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change. The results show that farmers have a developed perception of climate change. These changes are translated by rainfall disturbances (rainfall delays, early cessation, bad rainfall distribution etc., shortening of the small dry season, increasing of temperature and sometimes, violent winds. The survey reveals that Benin farmers adopt many strategies in response to climate change. These strategies include “Crop–livestock diversification and other good practices (mulching, organic fertilizer,” “Use of improved varieties, chemical fertilizers and pesticides,” “Agroforestry and perennial plantation” and “Diversification of income-generating activities.” The findings also reveal that most of the respondents use these strategies in combination. From the binary logit model, we know that “farming experience” and “educational level of household head” positively influence adaptation decisions. The result of the multinomial logit analysis shows that farming experience, educational level, farm size and gender have a significant impact on climate change adaptation strategies. Based on in-depth analysis of each strategy, we

A roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Setiadi, R.

2018-03-01

This paper outlines a roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation built from our practical understanding of the evidence and effects of climate change and the preparation of climate change adaptation strategies and plans. This roadmap aims to drive research in achieving fruitful knowledge and solution-based achievable recommendations in adapting to climate change in urban areas with effective and systematic manner. This paper underscores the importance of the interplay between local government initiatives and a national government for effective adaptation to climate change and takes into account the policy process and politics. This paper argues that effective urban climate change adaptation has a contribution to build urban resilience and helps the achievement of national government goals and targets in climate change adaptation.

Climate change adaptation: policy and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, Amanda H.; Brunner, Ronald D.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Worldwide, the threefold increase in the incidence of extreme weather events since 1960 was been accompanied by a ninefold increase in damages, reaching a peak of US$219 billion in 2005 due to the impacts of Hurricane Katrina. There is strong evidence that the increases in extremes, particularly heatwave and flood, are related to climate change. Adaptive governance presents an opportunity to factor the global problem into many simpler local problems to be addressed in parallel. We propose opening up the established frame, based on insights from field testing the principles of adaptive governance and independently corroborated by other research. First, in terms of science, we propose more intensive research centred on case studies of local communities and extreme events, each of which is unique under a comprehensive description. Differences among them must be taken into account to understand past damages or reduce vulnerability. Second, in terms of policy, we support a procedurally-rational approach, one that accommodates inevitable uncertainties, integrates scientific and local knowledge into policies to advance the community's common interest, and relies on learning from experience. Importantly, the approach is constructed to give something back of value to the participating communities - usually information and insight on their own circumstances - in return for their time, expertise, and good will. Third, in terms of decision-making, we suggest structural changes that begin with harvesting experience from the bottom-up, to make policies that have worked anywhere on the ground available for voluntary adaptation by similar communities elsewhere, and to inform higher-level officials about local resource needs. This approach produces lessons that can be re-contextualised to inform both scientific understanding and policy action in similar contexts directly, without going through generalisations. The common interest lies in reducing the

Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

2015-07-01

The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

2013-01-01

Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit

Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

2015-01-01

Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

Developing services for climate impact and adaptation baseline information and methodologies for the Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, C.

2012-04-01

Impacts of climate change are observed and projected across a range of ecosystems and economic sectors, and mountain regions thereby rank among the hotspots of climate change. The Andes are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, not only due to fragile ecosystems but also due to the high vulnerability of the population. Natural resources such as water systems play a critical role and are observed and projected to be seriously affected. Adaptation to climate change impacts is therefore crucial to contain the negative effects on the population. Adaptation projects require information on the climate and affected socio-environmental systems. There is, however, generally a lack of methodological guidelines how to generate the necessary scientific information and how to communicate to implementing governmental and non-governmental institutions. This is particularly important in view of the international funds for adaptation such as the Green Climate Fund established and set into process at the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties in Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011. To facilitate this process international and regional organizations (World Bank and Andean Community) and a consortium of research institutions have joined forces to develop and define comprehensive methodologies for baseline and climate change impact assessments for the Andes, with an application potential to other mountain regions (AndesPlus project). Considered are the climatological baseline of a region, and the assessment of trends based on ground meteorological stations, reanalysis data, and satellite information. A challenge is the scarcity of climate information in the Andes, and the complex climatology of the mountain terrain. A climate data platform has been developed for the southern Peruvian Andes and is a key element for climate data service and exchange. Water resources are among the key livelihood components for the Andean population, and local and national economy, in particular for

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Spring Barley Production in the Czech Republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trnka, M.; Zalud, Z.; Dubrovsky, M.

2004-01-01

The crop model CERES-Barley was used to assess the impacts of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on growth and development of the most important spring cereal in Central and Western Europe, i.e., spring barley, and to examine possible adaptation strategies. Three experimental regions were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic and pedological conditions. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained by stochastic weather generator and included two yield levels: stressed yields and potential yields. Four climate change scenarios based on global climate models and representing 2 x CO2 climate were applied. Results: (1) The crop model is suitable for use in the given environment, e.g., the coefficient of determination between the simulated and experimental yields equals 0.88. (2) The indirect effect related to changed weather conditions is mostly negative. Its magnitude ranges from -19% to +5% for the four scenarios applied at the three regions. (3) The magnitude of the direct effect of doubled CO2 on the stressed yields for the three test sites is 35-55% in the present climate and 25-65% in the 2 x CO2 climates. (4) The stressed yields would increase in 2 x CO2 conditions by 13-52% when both direct and indirect effects were considered. (5) The impacts of doubled CO2 on potential yields are more uniform throughout the localities in comparison with the stressed yields. The magnitude of the indirect and direct effects ranges from -1 to -9% and from +31 to +33%, respectively. Superposition of both effects results in 19-30% increase of the potential yields. (6) Application of the earlier planting date (up to 60 days) would result in 15-22% increase of the yields in 2 x CO2 conditions. (7) Use of a cultivar with longer vegetation duration would bring 1.5% yield increase per one extra day of the vegetation season. (8) The initial water content in the soil water profile proved to be one

[Establishment of policy indicators of adaptation to the impact of climate change on the transmission of schistosomiasis and malaria in China].