Interacting Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Rainforth, Tom; Naesseth, Christian A.; Lindsten, Fredrik; Paige, Brooks; van de Meent, Jan-Willem; Doucet, Arnaud; Wood, Frank
2016-01-01
We introduce interacting particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (iPMCMC), a PMCMC method that introduces a coupling between multiple standard and conditional sequential Monte Carlo samplers. Like related methods, iPMCMC is a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler on an extended space. We present empirical results that show significant improvements in mixing rates relative to both non-interacting PMCMC samplers and a single PMCMC sampler with an equivalent total computational budget. An additional advant...
Markov chains analytic and Monte Carlo computations
Graham, Carl
2014-01-01
Markov Chains: Analytic and Monte Carlo Computations introduces the main notions related to Markov chains and provides explanations on how to characterize, simulate, and recognize them. Starting with basic notions, this book leads progressively to advanced and recent topics in the field, allowing the reader to master the main aspects of the classical theory. This book also features: Numerous exercises with solutions as well as extended case studies.A detailed and rigorous presentation of Markov chains with discrete time and state space.An appendix presenting probabilistic notions that are nec
Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo
Brooks, Steve
2011-01-01
""Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo"" brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.
On adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms
Atchadé, Yves F.; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.
2005-01-01
We look at adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that generate stochastic processes based on sequences of transition kernels, where each transition kernel is allowed to depend on the history of the process. We show under certain conditions that the stochastic process generated is ergodic, with appropriate stationary distribution. We use this result to analyse an adaptive version of the random walk Metropolis algorithm where the scale parameter σ is sequentially adapted using a Robbins-...
On the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method
Rajeeva L Karandikar
2006-04-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular method used to generate samples from arbitrary distributions, which may be speciﬁed indirectly. In this article, we give an introduction to this method along with some examples.
Exploring Mass Perception with Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Cohen, Andrew L.; Ross, Michael G.
2009-01-01
Several previous studies have examined the ability to judge the relative mass of objects in idealized collisions. With a newly developed technique of psychological Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (A. N. Sanborn & T. L. Griffiths, 2008), this work explores participants; perceptions of different collision mass ratios. The results reveal…
Bayesian internal dosimetry calculations using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
A new numerical method for solving the inverse problem of internal dosimetry is described. The new method uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Metropolis algorithm. Multiple intake amounts, biokinetic types, and times of intake are determined from bioassay data by integrating over the Bayesian posterior distribution. The method appears definitive, but its application requires a large amount of computing time. (author)
Geometric allocation approaches in Markov chain Monte Carlo
The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the selection of candidate states, the optimization of transition kernel, algorithm for choosing a configuration according to the transition probabilities. We show that the unconventional approaches based on the geometric allocation of probabilities or weights can improve the dynamics and scaling of the Monte Carlo simulation in several aspects. Particularly, the approach using the irreversible kernel can reduce or sometimes completely eliminate the rejection of trial move in the Markov chain. We also discuss how the space-time interchange technique together with Walker's method of aliases can reduce the computational time especially for the case where the number of candidates is large, such as models with long-range interactions
Parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo via Spectral Clustering
Basse, Guillaume W.; Pillai, Natesh S.; Smith, Aaron
2016-01-01
As it has become common to use many computer cores in routine applications, finding good ways to parallelize popular algorithms has become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a parallelization scheme for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods based on spectral clustering of the underlying state space, generalizing earlier work on parallelization of MCMC methods by state space partitioning. We show empirically that this approach speeds up MCMC sampling for multimodal distributio...
Target Density Normalization for Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms
Caldwell, Allen
2014-01-01
Techniques for evaluating the normalization integral of the target density for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are described and tested numerically. It is assumed that the Markov Chain algorithm has converged to the target distribution and produced a set of samples from the density. These are used to evaluate sample mean, harmonic mean and Laplace algorithms for the calculation of the integral of the target density. A clear preference for the sample mean algorithm applied to a reduced support region is found, and guidelines are given for implementation.
Monte Carlo simulations and benchmark studies at CERN's accelerator chain
AUTHOR|(CDS)2083190; Brugger, Markus
2015-01-01
Mixed particle and energy radiation fields present at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and its accelerator chain are responsible for failures on electronic devices located in the vicinity of the accelerator beam lines. These radiation effects on electronics and, more generally, the overall radiation damage issues have a direct impact on component and system lifetimes, as well as on maintenance requirements and radiation exposure to personnel who have to intervene and fix existing faults. The radiation environments and respective radiation damage issues along the CERN’s accelerator chain were studied in the framework of the CERN Radiation to Electronics (R2E) project and are hereby presented. The important interplay between Monte Carlo simulations and radiation monitoring is also highlighted.
Putting Markov Chains Back into Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Barker, Richard J.; Schofield, Matthew R.
2007-01-01
Markov chain theory plays an important role in statistical inference both in the formulation of models for data and in the construction of efficient algorithms for inference. The use of Markov chains in modeling data has a long history, however the use of Markov chain theory in developing algorithms for statistical inference has only become popular recently. Using mark-recapture models as an illustration, we show how Markov chains can be used for developing demographic models and also ...
Markov chain Monte Carlo test of toric homogeneous Markov chains
Takemura, Akimichi; Hara, Hisayuki
2010-01-01
Markov chain models are used in various fields, such behavioral sciences or econometrics. Although the goodness of fit of the model is usually assessed by large sample approximation, it is desirable to use conditional tests if the sample size is not large. We study Markov bases for performing conditional tests of the toric homogeneous Markov chain model, which is the envelope exponential family for the usual homogeneous Markov chain model. We give a complete description of a Markov basis for ...
Caching and interpolated likelihoods: accelerating cosmological Monte Carlo Markov chains
We describe a novel approach to accelerating Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Our focus is cosmological parameter estimation, but the algorithm is applicable to any problem for which the likelihood surface is a smooth function of the free parameters and computationally expensive to evaluate. We generate a high-order interpolating polynomial for the log-likelihood using the first points gathered by the Markov chains as a training set. This polynomial then accurately computes the majority of the likelihoods needed in the latter parts of the chains. We implement a simple version of this algorithm as a patch (InterpMC) to CosmoMC and show that it accelerates parameter estimatation by a factor of between two and four for well-converged chains. The current code is primarily intended as a ''proof of concept'', and we argue that there is considerable room for further performance gains. Unlike other approaches to accelerating parameter fits, we make no use of precomputed training sets or special choices of variables, and InterpMC is almost entirely transparent to the user
HYDRA: a Java library for Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Gregory R. Warnes
2002-03-01
Full Text Available Hydra is an open-source, platform-neutral library for performing Markov Chain Monte Carlo. It implements the logic of standard MCMC samplers within a framework designed to be easy to use, extend, and integrate with other software tools. In this paper, we describe the problem that motivated our work, outline our goals for the Hydra pro ject, and describe the current features of the Hydra library. We then provide a step-by-step example of using Hydra to simulate from a mixture model drawn from cancer genetics, first using a variable-at-a-time Metropolis sampler and then a Normal Kernel Coupler. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for Hydra.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks
Goodrich, Michael S.
2011-01-01
Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.
Rate-Distortion via Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Jalali, Shirin
2008-01-01
We propose an approach to lossy source coding, utilizing ideas from Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The idea is to sample a reconstruction sequence from a Boltzmann distribution associated with an energy function that incorporates the distortion between the source and reconstruction, the compressibility of the reconstruction, and the point sought on the rate-distortion curve. To sample from this distribution, we use a 'heat bath algorithm': Starting from an initial candidate reconstruction (say the original source sequence), at every iteration, an index i is chosen and the i-th sequence component is replaced by drawing from the conditional probability distribution for that component given all the rest. At the end of this process, the encoder conveys the reconstruction to the decoder using universal lossless compression. The complexity of each iteration is independent of the sequence length and only linearly dependent on a certain context parameter (which grows sub-log...
LISA data analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to simultaneously detect many thousands of low-frequency gravitational wave signals. This presents a data analysis challenge that is very different to the one encountered in ground based gravitational wave astronomy. LISA data analysis requires the identification of individual signals from a data stream containing an unknown number of overlapping signals. Because of the signal overlaps, a global fit to all the signals has to be performed in order to avoid biasing the solution. However, performing such a global fit requires the exploration of an enormous parameter space with a dimension upwards of 50 000. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods offer a very promising solution to the LISA data analysis problem. MCMC algorithms are able to efficiently explore large parameter spaces, simultaneously providing parameter estimates, error analysis, and even model selection. Here we present the first application of MCMC methods to simulated LISA data and demonstrate the great potential of the MCMC approach. Our implementation uses a generalized F-statistic to evaluate the likelihoods, and simulated annealing to speed convergence of the Markov chains. As a final step we supercool the chains to extract maximum likelihood estimates, and estimates of the Bayes factors for competing models. We find that the MCMC approach is able to correctly identify the number of signals present, extract the source parameters, and return error estimates consistent with Fisher information matrix predictions
Accelerating Monte Carlo Markov chains with proxy and error models
Josset, Laureline; Demyanov, Vasily; Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Lunati, Ivan
2015-12-01
In groundwater modeling, Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations are often used to calibrate aquifer parameters and propagate the uncertainty to the quantity of interest (e.g., pollutant concentration). However, this approach requires a large number of flow simulations and incurs high computational cost, which prevents a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty in the presence of complex physical processes. To avoid this computational bottleneck, we propose to use an approximate model (proxy) to predict the response of the exact model. Here, we use a proxy that entails a very simplified description of the physics with respect to the detailed physics described by the "exact" model. The error model accounts for the simplification of the physical process; and it is trained on a learning set of realizations, for which both the proxy and exact responses are computed. First, the key features of the set of curves are extracted using functional principal component analysis; then, a regression model is built to characterize the relationship between the curves. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on the Imperial College Fault model. We show that the joint use of the proxy and the error model to infer the model parameters in a two-stage MCMC set-up allows longer chains at a comparable computational cost. Unnecessary evaluations of the exact responses are avoided through a preliminary evaluation of the proposal made on the basis of the corrected proxy response. The error model trained on the learning set is crucial to provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of the exact response and guide the chains to the low misfit regions. The proposed methodology can be extended to multiple-chain algorithms or other Bayesian inference methods. Moreover, FPCA is not limited to the specific presented application and offers a general framework to build error models.
Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL
2008-01-01
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.
Seriation in paleontological data using markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
Kai Puolamäki
2006-02-01
Full Text Available Given a collection of fossil sites with data about the taxa that occur in each site, the task in biochronology is to find good estimates for the ages or ordering of sites. We describe a full probabilistic model for fossil data. The parameters of the model are natural: the ordering of the sites, the origination and extinction times for each taxon, and the probabilities of different types of errors. We show that the posterior distributions of these parameters can be estimated reliably by using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The posterior distributions of the model parameters can be used to answer many different questions about the data, including seriation (finding the best ordering of the sites and outlier detection. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model and estimation method on synthetic data and on real data on large late Cenozoic mammals. As an example, for the sites with large number of occurrences of common genera, our methods give orderings, whose correlation with geochronologic ages is 0.95.
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: an introductory example
Klauenberg, Katy; Elster, Clemens
2016-02-01
When the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and methods from its supplements are not applicable, the Bayesian approach may be a valid and welcome alternative. Evaluating the posterior distribution, estimates or uncertainties involved in Bayesian inferences often requires numerical methods to avoid high-dimensional integrations. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is such a method—powerful, flexible and widely applied. Here, a concise introduction is given, illustrated by a simple, typical example from metrology. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is the most basic and yet flexible MCMC method. Its underlying concepts are explained and the algorithm is given step by step. The few lines of software code required for its implementation invite interested readers to get started. Diagnostics to evaluate the performance and common algorithmic choices are illustrated to calibrate the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for efficiency. Routine application of MCMC algorithms may be hindered currently by the difficulty to assess the convergence of MCMC output and thus to assure the validity of results. An example points to the importance of convergence and initiates discussion about advantages as well as areas of research. Available software tools are mentioned throughout.
A Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of the CMSSM
We perform a comprehensive exploration of the Constrained MSSM parameter space employing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and a Bayesian analysis. We compute superpartner masses and other collider observables, as well as a cold dark matter abundance, and compare them with experimental data. We include uncertainties arising from theoretical approximations as well as from residual experimental errors of relevant Standard Model parameters. We delineate probability distributions of the CMSSM parameters, the collider and cosmological observables as well as a dark matter direct detection cross section. The 68% probability intervals of the CMSSM parameters are: 0.52TeV 1/2 0 0 g-tilde q-tildeR χ1± -9 s→μ+μ-) -8, 1.9 x 10-10 μSUSY -10 and 1 x 10-10 pb SIp -8 pb for direct WIMP detection. We highlight a complementarity between LHC and WIMP dark matter searches in exploring the CMSSM parameter space. We further expose a number of correlations among the observables, in particular between BR(Bs→μ+μ-) and BR(B-bar →Xsγ) or σSIp. Once SUSY is discovered, this and other correlations may prove helpful in distinguishing the CMSSM from other supersymmetric models. We investigate the robustness of our results in terms of the assumed ranges of CMSSM parameters and the effect of the (g-2)μ anomaly which shows some tension with the other observables. We find that the results for m0, and the observables which strongly depend on it, are sensitive to our assumptions, while our conclusions for the other variables are robust
A comparison of strategies for Markov chain Monte Carlo computation in quantitative genetics
Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Ibanez-Escriche, Noelia; Sorensen, Daniel
2008-01-01
In quantitative genetics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are indispensable for statistical inference in non-standard models like generalized linear models with genetic random effects or models with genetically structured variance heterogeneity. A particular challenge for MCMC applications...
A Short History of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Subjective Recollections from Incomplete Data
Robert, Christian; Casella, George
2011-01-01
We attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940s through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the algorithms currently in use. More importantly, we see how the development of this methodology has not only changed our solutions to problems, but has changed the way we think about problems.
First Passage Probability Estimation of Wind Turbines by Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Nielsen, Søren R.K.
2013-01-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation has received considerable attention within the past decade as reportedly one of the most powerful techniques for the first passage probability estimation of dynamic systems. A very popular method in this direction capable of estimating probability of rare event...... rotor equal to its nominal value. Finally Monte Carlo simulations are performed which allow assessment of the accuracy of the first passage probability estimation by the SS methods....
Inference in Kingman's Coalescent with Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
Chen, Yifei; Xie, Xiaohui
2013-01-01
We propose a new algorithm to do posterior sampling of Kingman's coalescent, based upon the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology. Specifically, the algorithm is an instantiation of the Particle Gibbs Sampling method, which alternately samples coalescent times conditioned on coalescent tree structures, and tree structures conditioned on coalescent times via the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo procedure. We implement our algorithm as a C++ package, and demonstrate its utility via a ...
Batch means and spectral variance estimators in Markov chain Monte Carlo
Flegal, James M.; Jones, Galin L.
2008-01-01
Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We consider spectral and batch means methods for estimating this variance. In particular, we establish conditions which guarantee that these estimators are strongly consistent as the simulation effort increases. In addition, fo...
Regeneration and Fixed-Width Analysis of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms
Latuszynski, Krzysztof
2009-07-01
In the thesis we take the split chain approach to analyzing Markov chains and use it to establish fixed-width results for estimators obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures (MCMC). Theoretical results include necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of regeneration for central limit theorems for ergodic Markov chains and a regenerative proof of a CLT version for uniformly ergodic Markov chains with E_{π}f^2< infty. To obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for MCMC estimators, strongly consistent estimators of the asymptotic variance are essential. We relax assumptions required to obtain such estimators. Moreover, under a drift condition, nonasymptotic fixed-width results for MCMC estimators for a general state space setting (not necessarily compact) and not necessarily bounded target function f are obtained. The last chapter is devoted to the idea of adaptive Monte Carlo simulation and provides convergence results and law of large numbers for adaptive procedures under path-stability condition for transition kernels.
Quantum Monte Carlo Simulations of Adulteration Effect on Bond Alternating Spin=1/2 Chain
Zhang, Peng; Xu, Zhaoxin; Ying, Heping; Dai, Jianhui; Crompton, Peter
The S=1/2 Heisenberg chain with bond alternation and randomness of antiferromagnetic (AFM) and ferromagnetic (FM) interactions is investigated by quantum Monte Carlo simulations of loop/cluster algorithm. Our results have shown interesting finite temperature magnetic properties of this model. The relevance of our study to former investigation results is discussed.
An Evaluation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for the Rasch Model.
Kim, Seock-Ho
2001-01-01
Examined the accuracy of the Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for estimating item and person (theta) parameters in the one-parameter logistic model. Analyzed four empirical datasets using the Gibbs sampling, conditional maximum likelihood, marginal maximum likelihood, and joint maximum likelihood methods. Discusses the conditions…
Kim, Jee-Seon; Bolt, Daniel M.
2007-01-01
The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for item response models. A brief description of Bayesian inference is followed by an overview of the various facets of MCMC algorithms, including discussion of prior specification, sampling procedures, and methods for evaluating chain…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox
Nonejad, Nima
This paper details Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. PMCMC combines the particle filter with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Overall PMCMC provides a very compelling, computationally fast and...
Experiences with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Convergence Assessment in Two Psychometric Examples
Sinharay, Sandip
2004-01-01
There is an increasing use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for fitting statistical models in psychometrics, especially in situations where the traditional estimation techniques are very difficult to apply. One of the disadvantages of using an MCMC algorithm is that it is not straightforward to determine the convergence of the…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Item Parameters for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model
de la Torre, Jimmy; Stark, Stephen; Chernyshenko, Oleksandr S.
2006-01-01
The authors present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation procedure for the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM) and compare it to the marginal maximum likelihood (MML) approach implemented in the GGUM2000 computer program, using simulated and real personality data. In the simulation study, test length, number of response…
A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Confirmatory Item Factor Analysis
Edwards, Michael C.
2010-01-01
Item factor analysis has a rich tradition in both the structural equation modeling and item response theory frameworks. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a novel combination of various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation routines to estimate parameters of a wide variety of confirmatory item factor analysis models. Further, I show…
Teaching Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Revealing the Basic Ideas behind the Algorithm
Stewart, Wayne; Stewart, Sepideh
2014-01-01
For many scientists, researchers and students Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is an important and necessary tool to perform Bayesian analyses. The simulation is often presented as a mathematical algorithm and then translated into an appropriate computer program. However, this can result in overlooking the fundamental and deeper…
An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo method with skew detailed balance conditions
An irreversible Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on a skew detailed balance condition is discussed. Some recent theoretical works concerned with the irreversible MCMC method are reviewed and the irreversible Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for the method is described. We apply the method to ferromagnetic Ising models in two and three dimensions. Relaxation dynamics of the order parameter and the dynamical exponent are studied in comparison to those with the conventional reversible MCMC method with the detailed balance condition. We also examine how the efficiency of exchange Monte Carlo method is affected by the combined use of the irreversible MCMC method
Local and chain dynamics in miscible polymer blends: A Monte Carlo simulation study
Luettmer-Strathmann, Jutta; Mantina, Manjeera
2005-01-01
Local chain structure and local environment play an important role in the dynamics of polymer chains in miscible blends. In general, the friction coefficients that describe the segmental dynamics of the two components in a blend differ from each other and from those of the pure melts. In this work, we investigate polymer blend dynamics with Monte Carlo simulations of a generalized bond-fluctuation model, where differences in the interaction energies between non-bonded nearest neighbors distin...
Dynamic temperature selection for parallel-tempering in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
Vousden, Will; Farr, Will M.; Mandel, Ilya
2015-01-01
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform poorly on strongly multi-modal probability distributions, rarely jumping between modes or settling on just one mode without finding others. Parallel tempering addresses this problem by sampling simultaneously with separate Markov chains from tempered versio...
Population Synthesis of Normal Radio and Gamma-ray Pulsars Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques
Gonthier, Peter L; Harding, Alice K
2012-01-01
We present preliminary results of a pulsar population synthesis of normal pulsars from the Galactic disk using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to better understand the parameter space of the assumed model. We use the Kuiper test, similar to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to compare the cumulative distributions of chosen observables of detected radio pulsars with those simulated for various parameters. Our code simulates pulsars at birth using Monte Carlo techniques and evolves them to the present assuming initial spatial, kick velocity, magnetic field, and period distributions. Pulsars are spun down to the present, given radio and gamma-ray emission characteristics, filtered through ten selected radio surveys, and a {\\it Fermi} all-sky threshold map. Each chain begins with a different random seed and searches a ten-dimensional parameter space for regions of high probability for a total of one thousand different simulations before ending. The code investigates both the "large world" as well as the "small world...
Alavirad, Hamzeh; Malekjani, Mohammad
2013-01-01
We constrain holographic dark energy (HDE) with time varying gravitational coupling constant in the framework of the modified Friedmann equations using cosmological data from type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic microwave background radiation and X-ray gas mass fraction. Applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, we obtain the best fit values of the model and cosmological parameters within $1\\sigma$ confidence level (CL) in a flat universe as: $\\Omega_{\\rm b}h^...
Bayesian inference of BWR model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo
In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference is applied for estimating the parameters of a reduced-order model of the dynamics of a boiling water reactor system. A Bayesian updating strategy is devised to progressively refine the estimates, as newly measured data become available. Finally, the technique is used for detecting parameter changes during the system lifetime, e.g. due to component degradation
Laser-based detection and tracking moving objects using data-driven Markov chain Monte Carlo
Vu, Trung-Dung; Aycard, Olivier
2009-01-01
We present a method of simultaneous detection and tracking moving objects from a moving vehicle equipped with a single layer laser scanner. A model-based approach is introduced to interpret the laser measurement sequence by hypotheses of moving object trajectories over a sliding window of time. Knowledge of various aspects including object model, measurement model, motion model are integrated in one theoretically sound Bayesian framework. The data-driven Markov chain Monte Carlo (DDMCMC) tech...
Farr, W. M.; Stevens, D; Mandel, Ilya
2015-01-01
Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed dataset is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing Bayesian model selection, but it suffers from a fundamental difficulty and it requires jumps between model parameter spaces, but cannot efficiently explore both parameter spaces at once. Thus, a naive jump between parameter spaces is unlikely to be accepted ...
Drift of a polymer chain in a porous medium —A Monte Carlo study
Avramova, K.; Milchev, A.
2002-01-01
We investigate the drift of an end-labeled telehelic polymer chain in a frozen disordered medium under the action of a constant force applied to the one end of the macromolecule by means of an off-lattice bead spring Monte Carlo model. The length of the polymers N is varied in the range 8chains can be interpreted as described by a scaling theory based on Pincus blobs. The variation of drag velocity with C in this interval of field intensities is qualitatively described by the law of Mackie-Meares. The threshold field intensity B_ab{c} itself is found to decrease linearly with C.
Rao-Blackwellised Interacting Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Electromagnetic Scattering Inversion
The following electromagnetism (EM) inverse problem is addressed. It consists in estimating local radioelectric properties of materials recovering an object from the global EM scattering measurement, at various incidences and wave frequencies. This large scale ill-posed inverse problem is explored by an intensive exploitation of an efficient 2D Maxwell solver, distributed on High Performance Computing (HPC) machines. Applied to a large training data set, a statistical analysis reduces the problem to a simpler probabilistic metamodel, on which Bayesian inference can be performed. Considering the radioelectric properties as a dynamic stochastic process, evolving in function of the frequency, it is shown how advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, called Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) or interacting particles, can provide estimations of the EM properties of each material, and their associated uncertainties.
Multilevel markov chain monte carlo method for high-contrast single-phase flow problems
Efendiev, Yalchin R.
2014-12-19
In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a hierarchy of approximations of different resolution, whereas the latter gives an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different levels. The number of basis functions in the online GMsFEM stage can be varied to determine the solution resolution and the computational cost, and to efficiently generate samples at different levels. In particular, it is cheap to generate samples on coarse grids but with low resolution, and it is expensive to generate samples on fine grids with high accuracy. By suitably choosing the number of samples at different levels, one can leverage the expensive computation in larger fine-grid spaces toward smaller coarse-grid spaces, while retaining the accuracy of the final Monte Carlo estimate. Further, we describe a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which sequentially screens the proposal with different levels of approximations and reduces the number of evaluations required on fine grids, while combining the samples at different levels to arrive at an accurate estimate. The framework seamlessly integrates the multiscale features of the GMsFEM with the multilevel feature of the MLMC methods following the work in [26], and our numerical experiments illustrate its efficiency and accuracy in comparison with standard Monte Carlo estimates. © Global Science Press Limited 2015.
Alavirad, Hamzeh; Malekjani, Mohammad
2014-02-01
We constrain holographic dark energy (HDE) with time varying gravitational coupling constant in the framework of the modified Friedmann equations using cosmological data from type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic microwave background radiation and X-ray gas mass fraction. Applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, we obtain the best fit values of the model and cosmological parameters within 1 σ confidence level (CL) in a flat universe as: , , and the HDE constant . Using the best fit values, the equation of state of the dark component at the present time w d0 at 1 σ CL can cross the phantom boundary w=-1.
We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the density and size distribution of subclad-flaws in French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) vessels. This model takes into account in-service inspection (ISI) data, a flaw size-dependent probability of detection (different functions are considered) with a threshold of detection, and a flaw sizing error distribution (different distributions are considered). The resulting model is identified through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The article includes discussion for choosing the prior distribution parameters and an illustrative application is presented highlighting the model's ability to provide good parameter estimates even when a small number of flaws are observed
Markov chain Monte Carlo linkage analysis of a complex qualitative phenotype.
Hinrichs, A; Lin, J H; Reich, T; Bierut, L; Suarez, B K
1999-01-01
We tested a new computer program, LOKI, that implements a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for segregation and linkage analysis. Our objective was to determine whether this software, designed for use with continuously distributed phenotypes, has any efficacy when applied to the discrete disease states of the simulated data from the Mordor data from GAW Problem 1. Although we were able to identify the genomic location for two of the three quantitative trait loci by repeated application of the software, the MCMC sampler experienced significant mixing problems indicating that the method, as currently formulated in LOKI, was not suitable for the discrete phenotypes in this data set. PMID:10597502
A Thermodynamic Model for Square-well Chain Fluid: Theory and Monte Carlo Simulation
无
2001-01-01
A thermodynamic model for the freely jointed square-well chain fluids was developed based on the thermodynamic perturbation theory of Barker-Henderson, Zhang and Wertheim. In this derivation Zhang's expressions for square-well monomers improved from Barker-Henderson compressibility approximation were adopted as the reference fluid, and Wertheim＇s polymerization method was used to obtain the free energy term due to the bond connectivity. An analytic expression for the Helmholtz free energy of the square-well chain fluids was obtained. The expression without adjustable parameters leads to the thermodynamic consistent predictions of the compressibility factors, residual internal energy and constant-volume heat capacity for dimer,4-mer, 8-mer and 16-mer square-well fluids. The results are in good agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation. To obtain the MC data of residual internal energy and the constant-volume heat capacity needed, NVT MC simulations were performed for these square-well chain fluids.
Marathon: An Open Source Software Library for the Analysis of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms.
Rechner, Steffen; Berger, Annabell
2016-01-01
We present the software library marathon, which is designed to support the analysis of sampling algorithms that are based on the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo principle. The main application of this library is the computation of properties of so-called state graphs, which represent the structure of Markov chains. We demonstrate applications and the usefulness of marathon by investigating the quality of several bounding methods on four well-known Markov chains for sampling perfect matchings and bipartite graphs. In a set of experiments, we compute the total mixing time and several of its bounds for a large number of input instances. We find that the upper bound gained by the famous canonical path method is often several magnitudes larger than the total mixing time and deteriorates with growing input size. In contrast, the spectral bound is found to be a precise approximation of the total mixing time. PMID:26824442
Interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for solving nonlinear measure-valued equations
Del Moral, Pierre; 10.1214/09-AAP628
2010-01-01
We present a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for solving numerically discrete-time measure-valued equations. The associated stochastic processes belong to the class of self-interacting Markov chains. In contrast to traditional Markov chains, their time evolutions depend on the occupation measure of their past values. This general methodology allows us to provide a natural way to sample from a sequence of target probability measures of increasing complexity. We develop an original theoretical analysis to analyze the behavior of these iterative algorithms which relies on measure-valued processes and semigroup techniques. We establish a variety of convergence results including exponential estimates and a uniform convergence theorem with respect to the number of target distributions. We also illustrate these algorithms in the context of Feynman-Kac distribution flows.
Combining Stochastics and Analytics for a Fast Monte Carlo Decay Chain Generator
Kazkaz, Kareem
2011-01-01
Various Monte Carlo programs, developed either by small groups or widely available, have been used to calculate the effects of decays of radioactive chains, from the original parent nucleus to the final stable isotopes. These chains include uranium, thorium, radon, and others, and generally have long-lived parent nuclei. Generating decays within these chains requires a certain amount of computing overhead related to simulating unnecessary decays, time-ordering the final results in post-processing, or both. We present a combination analytic/stochastic algorithm for creating a time-ordered set of decays with position and time correlations, and starting with an arbitrary source age. Thus the simulation costs are greatly reduced, while at the same time avoiding chronological post-processing. We discuss optimization methods within the approach to minimize calculation time.
Marathon: An Open Source Software Library for the Analysis of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms
Rechner, Steffen; Berger, Annabell
2016-01-01
We present the software library marathon, which is designed to support the analysis of sampling algorithms that are based on the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo principle. The main application of this library is the computation of properties of so-called state graphs, which represent the structure of Markov chains. We demonstrate applications and the usefulness of marathon by investigating the quality of several bounding methods on four well-known Markov chains for sampling perfect matchings and bipartite graphs. In a set of experiments, we compute the total mixing time and several of its bounds for a large number of input instances. We find that the upper bound gained by the famous canonical path method is often several magnitudes larger than the total mixing time and deteriorates with growing input size. In contrast, the spectral bound is found to be a precise approximation of the total mixing time. PMID:26824442
Mańka, Agnieszka; Nowicki, Waldemar; Nowicka, Grażyna
2013-01-01
A linear chain on a simple cubic lattice was simulated by the Metropolis Monte Carlo method using a combination of local and non-local chain modifications. Kink-jump, crankshaft, reptation and end-segment moves were used for local changes of the chain conformation, while for non-local chain rearrangements the "cut-and-paste" algorithm was employed. The statistics of local micromodifications was examined. An approximate method for estimating the conformational entropy of a polymer chain, based...
Occurrence of hazardous accident in nuclear power plants and industrial units usually lead to release of radioactive materials and pollutants in environment. These materials and pollutants can be transported to a far downstream by the wind flow. In this paper, we implemented an atmospheric dispersion code to solve the inverse problem. Having received and detected the pollutants in one region, we may estimate the rate and location of the unknown source. For the modeling, one needs a model with ability of atmospheric dispersion calculation. Furthermore, it is required to implement a mathematical approach to infer the source location and the related rates. In this paper the AERMOD software and Bayesian inference along the Markov Chain Monte Carlo have been applied. Implementing, Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the aforementioned subject is not a new approach, but the AERMOD model coupled with the said methods is a new and well known regulatory software, and enhances the reliability of outcomes. To evaluate the method, an example is considered by defining pollutants concentration in a specific region and then obtaining the source location and intensity by a direct calculation. The result of the calculation estimates the average source location at a distance of 7km with an accuracy of 5m which is good enough to support the ability of the proposed algorithm.
Gonthier, Peter L.; Koh, Yew-Meng; Kust Harding, Alice
2016-04-01
We present preliminary results of a new population synthesis of millisecond pulsars (MSP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to better understand the model parameter space. We include empirical radio and gamma-ray luminosity models that are dependent on the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. The magnitudes of the model luminosities are adjusted to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of thirteen radio surveys as well as the MSP birth rate in the Galaxy and the number of MSPs detected by Fermi. We explore various high-energy emission geometries like the slot gap, outer gap, two pole caustic and pair starved polar cap models. The parameters associated with the birth distributions for the mass accretion rate, magnetic field, and period distributions are well constrained. With the set of four free parameters, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to explore the model parameter space. We present preliminary comparisons of the simulated and detected distributions of radio and gamma-ray pulsar characteristics. We estimate the contribution of MSPs to the diffuse gamma-ray background with a special focus on the Galactic Center.We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (RUI: AST-1009731), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program (NNX09AQ71G).
Bayesian Inference for LISA Pathfinder using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Ferraioli, Luigi; Plagnol, Eric
2012-01-01
We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of a space based gravitational wave detector. The method is based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a two-stage annealing treatment in order to ensure an effective exploration of the parameter space at the beginning of the chain. We compare two versions of the algorithm with an application to a LISA Pathfinder data analysis problem. The two algorithms share the same heating strategy but with one moving in coordinate directions using proposals from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the other uses the natural logarithm of some parameters and proposes jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix. The algorithm proposing jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix demonstrates a higher acceptance rate and a slightly better convergence towards the equilibrium parameter distributions in the application to...
Dynamic temperature selection for parallel-tempering in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
Vousden, Will; Mandel, Ilya
2015-01-01
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform poorly on strongly multi-modal probability distributions, rarely jumping between modes or settling on just one mode without finding others. Parallel tempering addresses this problem by sampling simultaneously with separate Markov chains from tempered versions of the target distribution with reduced contrast levels. Gaps between modes can be traversed at higher temperatures, while individual modes can be efficiently explored at lower temperatures. In this paper, we investigate how one might choose the ladder of temperatures to achieve lower autocorrelation time for the sampler (and therefore more efficient sampling). In particular, we present a simple, easily-implemented algorithm for dynamically adapting the temperature configuration of a sampler while sampling in order to ...
Monte Carlo Simulations of Density Profiles for Hard-Sphere Chain Fluids Confined Between Surfaces
无
2001-01-01
Covering a wide range of bulk densities, density profiles for hard-sphere chain fluids (HSCFs) with chain length of 3,4,8,20,32 and 64 confined between two surfaces were obtained by Monte Carlo simulations using extended continuum configurational-bias (ECCB) method. It is shown that the enrichment of beads near surfaces is happened at high densities due to the bulk packing effect, on the contrary, the depletion is revealed at low densities owing to the configurational entropic contribution. Comparisons with those calculated by density functional theory presented by Cai et al. indicate that the agreement between simulations and predictions is good. Compressibility factors of bulk HSCFs calculated using volume fractions at surfaces were also used to test the reliability of various equations of state of HSCFs by different authors.
On stochastic error and computational efficiency of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method
Li, Jun
2014-01-01
In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the probability distribution function, known from the partition function of equilibrium state. As the stochastic error of the simulation results is significant, it is desirable to understand the variance of the estimation by ensemble average, which depends on the sample size (i.e., the total number of samples in the set) and the sampling interval (i.e., cycle number between two consecutive samples). Although large sample sizes reduce the variance, they increase the computational cost of the simulation. For a given CPU time, the sample size can be reduced greatly by increasing the sampling interval, while having the corresponding increase in variance be negligible if the original sampling interval is very small. In this work, we report a few general rules that relate the variance with the sample size and the sampling interval. These results are observed and confirmed numerically. These variance rules are derived for theMCMCmethod but are also valid for the correlated samples obtained using other Monte Carlo methods. The main contribution of this work includes the theoretical proof of these numerical observations and the set of assumptions that lead to them. © 2014 Global-Science Press.
Mapping systematic errors in helium abundance determinations using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo techniques have been used to evaluate the statistical and systematic uncertainties in the helium abundances derived from extragalactic H II regions. The helium abundance is sensitive to several physical parameters associated with the H II region. In this work, we introduce Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to efficiently explore the parameter space and determine the helium abundance, the physical parameters, and the uncertainties derived from observations of metal poor nebulae. Experiments with synthetic data show that the MCMC method is superior to previous implementations (based on flux perturbation) in that it is not affected by biases due to non-physical parameter space. The MCMC analysis allows a detailed exploration of degeneracies, and, in particular, a false minimum that occurs at large values of optical depth in the He I emission lines. We demonstrate that introducing the electron temperature derived from the [O III] emission lines as a prior, in a very conservative manner, produces negligible bias and effectively eliminates the false minima occurring at large optical depth. We perform a frequentist analysis on data from several ''high quality'' systems. Likelihood plots illustrate degeneracies, asymmetries, and limits of the determination. In agreement with previous work, we find relatively large systematic errors, limiting the precision of the primordial helium abundance for currently available spectra
Bayesian analysis of Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data sets based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods has been shown to be a challenging problem, in part due to the complicated structure of the likelihood function consisting of several isolated local maxima that dramatically reduces the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Here we introduce a new fully Markovian algorithm, a delayed rejection Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo method, to efficiently explore these kind of structures and we demonstrate its performance on selected LISA data sets containing a known number of stellar-mass binary signals embedded in Gaussian stationary noise.
Alavirad, Hamzeh
2013-01-01
We constrain holographic dark energy (HDE) with time varying gravitational coupling constant in the framework of the modified Friedmann equations using cosmological data from type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic microwave background radiation and X-ray gas mass fraction. Applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, we obtain the best fit values of the model and cosmological parameters within $1\\sigma$ confidence level (CL) in a flat universe as: $\\Omega_{\\rm b}h^2=0.0222^{+0.0018}_{-0.0013}$, $\\Omega_{\\rm c}h^2 =0.1121^{+0.0110}_{-0.0079}$, $\\alpha_{\\rm G}\\equiv \\dot{G}/(HG) =0.1647^{+0.3547}_{-0.2971}$ and the HDE constant $c=0.9322^{+0.4569}_{-0.5447}$. Using the best fit values, the equation of state of the dark component at the present time $w_{\\rm d0}$ at $1\\sigma$ CL can cross the phantom boundary $w=-1$.
Polyakov, Evgeny A; Vorontsov-Velyaminov, Pavel N
2014-08-28
Properties of ferrofluid bilayer (modeled as a system of two planar layers separated by a distance h and each layer carrying a soft sphere dipolar liquid) are calculated in the framework of inhomogeneous Ornstein-Zernike equations with reference hypernetted chain closure (RHNC). The bridge functions are taken from a soft sphere (1/r(12)) reference system in the pressure-consistent closure approximation. In order to make the RHNC problem tractable, the angular dependence of the correlation functions is expanded into special orthogonal polynomials according to Lado. The resulting equations are solved using the Newton-GRMES algorithm as implemented in the public-domain solver NITSOL. Orientational densities and pair distribution functions of dipoles are compared with Monte Carlo simulation results. A numerical algorithm for the Fourier-Hankel transform of any positive integer order on a uniform grid is presented. PMID:25173007
King, Julian; Mortlock, Daniel; Webb, John; Murphy, Michael
2010-11-01
Recent attempts to constrain cosmological variation in the fine structure constant, α, using quasar absorption lines have yielded two statistical samples which initially appear to be inconsistent. One of these samples was subsequently demonstrated to not pass consistency tests; it appears that the optimisation algorithm used to fit the model to the spectra failed. Nevertheless, the results of the other hinge on the robustness of the spectral fitting program VPFIT, which has been tested through simulation but not through direct exploration of the likelihood function. We present the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this problem, and demonstrate that VPFIT produces similar values and uncertainties for Δα/α, the fractional change in the fine structure constant, as our MCMC algorithm, and thus that VPFIT is reliable.
King, Julian A; Webb, John K; Murphy, Michael T
2009-01-01
Recent attempts to constrain cosmological variation in the fine structure constant, alpha, using quasar absorption lines have yielded two statistical samples which initially appear to be inconsistent. One of these samples was subsequently demonstrated to not pass consistency tests; it appears that the optimisation algorithm used to fit the model to the spectra failed. Nevertheless, the results of the other hinge on the robustness of the spectral fitting program VPFIT, which has been tested through simulation but not through direct exploration of the likelihood function. We present the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this problem, and demonstrate that VPFIT produces similar values and uncertainties for (Delta alpha)/(alpha), the fractional change in the fine structure constant, as our MCMC algorithm, and thus that VPFIT is reliable.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Exploration of Minimal Supergravity with Implications for Dark Matter
We explore the full parameter space of Minimal Supergravity (mSUGRA), allowing all four continuous parameters (the scalar mass m0, the gaugino mass m1/2, the trilinear coupling A0, and the ratio of Higgs vacuum expectation values tan β) to vary freely. We apply current accelerator constraints on sparticle and Higgs masses, and on the b → sγ branching ratio, and discuss the impact of the constraints on gμ-2. To study dark matter, we apply the WMAP constraint on the cold dark matter density. We develop Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to explore the parameter regions consistent with WMAP, finding them to be considerably superior to previously used methods for exploring supersymmetric parameter spaces. Finally, we study the reach of current and future direct detection experiments in light of the WMAP constraint
Potential-Decomposition Strategy in Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling Algorithms
We introduce the potential-decomposition strategy (PDS), which can he used in Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. PDS can be designed to make particles move in a modified potential that favors diffusion in phase space, then, by rejecting some trial samples, the target distributions can be sampled in an unbiased manner. Furthermore, if the accepted trial samples are insufficient, they can be recycled as initial states to form more unbiased samples. This strategy can greatly improve efficiency when the original potential has multiple metastable states separated by large barriers. We apply PDS to the 2d Ising model and a double-well potential model with a large barrier, demonstrating in these two representative examples that convergence is accelerated by orders of magnitude.
Of bugs and birds: Markov Chain Monte Carlo for hierarchical modeling in wildlife research
Link, W.A.; Cam, E.; Nichols, J.D.; Cooch, E.G.
2002-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a statistical innovation that allows researchers to fit far more complex models to data than is feasible using conventional methods. Despite its widespread use in a variety of scientific fields, MCMC appears to be underutilized in wildlife applications. This may be due to a misconception that MCMC requires the adoption of a subjective Bayesian analysis, or perhaps simply to its lack of familiarity among wildlife researchers. We introduce the basic ideas of MCMC and software BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), stressing that a simple and satisfactory intuition for MCMC does not require extraordinary mathematical sophistication. We illustrate the use of MCMC with an analysis of the association between latent factors governing individual heterogeneity in breeding and survival rates of kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). We conclude with a discussion of the importance of individual heterogeneity for understanding population dynamics and designing management plans.
Bayesian Lorentzian profile fitting using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo: An observer's approach
Gruberbauer, M; Weiss, W W
2008-01-01
Aims. Investigating stochastically driven pulsation puts strong requirements on the quality of (observed) pulsation frequency spectra, such as the accuracy of frequencies, amplitudes, and mode life times and -- important when fitting these parameters with models -- a realistic error estimate which can be quite different to the formal error. As has been shown by other authors, the method of fitting Lorentzian profiles to the power spectrum of time-resolved photometric or spectroscopic data via the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure delivers good approximations for these quantities. We, however, intend to demonstrate that a conservative Bayesian approach allows to treat this problem in a more consistent way. Methods. We derive a conservative Bayesian treatment for the probability of Lorentzian profiles being present in a power spectrum and describe its implementation via evaluating the probability density distribution of parameters by using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. In addition, ...
Assessing confidence in phylogenetic trees : bootstrap versus Markov chain Monte Carlo
Burr, Tom; Doak, J. E. (Justin E.); Gattiker, J. R. (James R.); Stanbro, W. D. (William D.)
2002-01-01
Recent implementations of Bayesian approaches are one of the largest advances in phylogenetic tree estimation in the last 10 years. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used in these new approaches to estimate the Bayesian posterior probability for each tree topology of interest. Our goal is to assess the confidence in the estimated tree (particularly in whether prespecified groups are monophyletic) using MCMC and to compare the Bayesian estimate of confidence to a bootstrap-based estimate of confidence. We compare the Bayesian posterior probability to the bootstrap probability for specified groups in two real sets of influenza sequences and two sets of simulated sequences for our comparison. We conclude that the bootstrap estimate is adequate compared to the MCMC estimate except perhaps if the number of DNA sites is small.
Analysis of aerial survey data on Florida manatee using Markov chain Monte Carlo.
Craig, B A; Newton, M A; Garrott, R A; Reynolds, J E; Wilcox, J R
1997-06-01
We assess population trends of the Atlantic coast population of Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris, by reanalyzing aerial survey data collected between 1982 and 1992. To do so, we develop an explicit biological model that accounts for the method by which the manatees are counted, the mammals' movement between surveys, and the behavior of the population total over time. Bayesian inference, enabled by Markov chain Monte Carlo, is used to combine the survey data with the biological model. We compute marginal posterior distributions for all model parameters and predictive distributions for future counts. Several conclusions, such as a decreasing population growth rate and low sighting probabilities, are consistent across different prior specifications. PMID:9192449
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation of a novel hybrid redundant robot
This paper presents a statistical method for the calibration of a redundantly actuated hybrid serial-parallel robot IWR (Intersector Welding Robot). The robot under study will be used to carry out welding, machining, and remote handing for the assembly of vacuum vessel of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). The robot has ten degrees of freedom (DOF), among which six DOF are contributed by the parallel mechanism and the rest are from the serial mechanism. In this paper, a kinematic error model which involves 54 unknown geometrical error parameters is developed for the proposed robot. Based on this error model, the mean values of the unknown parameters are statistically analyzed and estimated by means of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The computer simulation is conducted by introducing random geometric errors and measurement poses which represent the corresponding real physical behaviors. The simulation results of the marginal posterior distributions of the estimated model parameters indicate that our method is reliable and robust.
Zablotskiy, Sergey V.; Martemyanova, Julia A.; Ivanov, Viktor A.; Paul, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
A single copolymer chain consisting of multiple flexible (F) and semiflexible (S) blocks has been studied using a continuum bead-spring model by Stochastic Approximation Monte Carlo simulations, which determine the density of states of the model. The only difference between F and S blocks is the intramolecular bending potential, all non-bonded interactions are equal. The state diagrams for this class of models display multiple nematic phases in the collapsed state, characterized through a demixing of the blocks of different stiffness and orientational ordering of the stiff blocks. We observe dumbbell-like morphologies, lamellar phases, and for the larger block lengths also Saturn-like structures with a core of flexible segments and the stiff segments forming a ring around the core.
Markov-Chain Monte Carlo reconstruction for cascades in IceCube
In particle detector experiments, it is often necessary to reconstruct information about the incoming particle based on the detector response. One technique is to describe the likelihood of a certain detector response given an event hypothesis and then vary the hypothesis to maximize the likelihood. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques offer the ability to efficiently sample such a likelihood function in the most significant regions of a large parameter space. The MCMC generates a set of points in parameter space whose distribution is proportional to the likelihood function. The characteristics of this distribution can be used to judge the quality of a reconstruction and filter out poorly-reconstructed events. I discuss the application of MCMC techniques to the reconstruction of neutrino-induced cascade events in the IceCube neutrino detector
Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for PWR core loading pattern optimization
Highlights: ► The BIMCMC method performs very well and is comparable to GA and PSO techniques. ► The potential of the technique is very well for optimization. ► It is observed that the performance of the method is quite adequate. ► The BIMCMC is very easy to implement. -- Abstract: Despite remarkable progress in optimization procedures, inherent complexities in nuclear reactor structure and strong interdependence among the fundamental indices namely, economic, neutronic, thermo-hydraulic and environmental effects make it necessary to evaluate the most efficient arrangement of a reactor core. In this paper a reactor core reloading technique based on Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo, BIMCMC, is addressed in the context of obtaining an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies in reactor cores. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm has been applied for sampling variable and its acceptance. The proposed algorithm can be used for in-core fuel management optimization problems in pressurized water reactors. Considerable work has been expended for loading pattern optimization, but no preferred approach has yet emerged. To evaluate the proposed technique, increasing the effective multiplication factor Keff of a WWER-1000 core along flattening power with keeping power peaking factor below a specific limit as a first test case and flattening of power as a second test case are considered as objective functions; although other variables such as burn up and cycle length can also be taken into account. The results, convergence rate and reliability of the new method are compared to published data resulting from particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm; the outcome is quite promising and demonstrating the potential of the technique very well for optimization applications in the nuclear engineering field.
Bao, J.; Ren, H.; Hou, Z.; Ray, J.; Swiler, L.; Huang, M.
2015-12-01
We developed a novel scalable multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for high-dimensional inverse problems. The method is scalable in terms of number of chains and processors, and is useful for Bayesian calibration of computationally expensive simulators typically used for scientific and engineering calculations. In this study, we demonstrate two applications of this method for hydraulic and geological inverse problems. The first one is monitoring soil moisture variations using tomographic ground penetrating radar (GPR) travel time data, where challenges exist in the inversion of GPR tomographic data for handling non-uniqueness and nonlinearity and high-dimensionality of unknowns. We integrated the multi-chain MCMC framework with the pilot point concept, a curved-ray GPR forward model, and a sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) algorithm for estimating the dielectric permittivity at pilot point locations distributed within the tomogram, as well as its spatial correlation range, which are used to construct the whole field of dielectric permittivity using SGSIM. The second application is reservoir porosity and saturation estimation using the multi-chain MCMC approach to jointly invert marine seismic amplitude versus angle (AVA) and controlled-source electro-magnetic (CSEM) data for a layered reservoir model, where the unknowns to be estimated include the porosity and fluid saturation in each reservoir layer and the electrical conductivity of the overburden and bedrock. The computational efficiency, accuracy, and convergence behaviors of the inversion approach are systematically evaluated.
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Robinson, Bruce A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Higdon, Dave [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ter Braak, Cajo J F [NETHERLANDS; Diks, Cees G H [UNIV OF AMSTERDAM
2008-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have found widespread use in many fields of study to estimate the average properties of complex systems, and for posterior inference in a Bayesian framework. Existing theory and experiments prove convergence of well constructed MCMC schemes to the appropriate limiting distribution under a variety of different conditions. In practice, however this convergence is often observed to be disturbingly slow. This is frequently caused by an inappropriate selection of the proposal distribution used to generate trial moves in the Markov Chain. Here we show that significant improvements to the efficiency of MCMC simulation can be made by using a self-adaptive Differential Evolution learning strategy within a population-based evolutionary framework. This scheme, entitled DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis or DREAM, runs multiple different chains simultaneously for global exploration, and automatically tunes the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution in randomized subspaces during the search. Ergodicity of the algorithm is proved, and various examples involving nonlinearity, high-dimensionality, and multimodality show that DREAM is generally superior to other adaptive MCMC sampling approaches. The DREAM scheme significantly enhances the applicability of MCMC simulation to complex, multi-modal search problems.
Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba
2012-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…
Jiang Wei; Xiang Haige
2004-01-01
This paper addresses the issues of channel estimation in a Multiple-Input/Multiple-Output (MIMO) system. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is employed to jointly estimate the Channel State Information (CSI) and the transmitted signals. The deduced algorithms can work well under circumstances of low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Simulation results are presented to demonstrate their effectiveness.
Lalande, Jean-Marie; Waxler, Roger; Velea, Doru
2016-04-01
As infrasonic waves propagate at long ranges through atmospheric ducts it has been suggested that observations of such waves can be used as a remote sensing techniques in order to update properties such as temperature and wind speed. In this study we investigate a new inverse approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This approach as the advantage of searching for the full Probability Density Function in the parameter space at a lower computational cost than extensive parameters search performed by the standard Monte Carlo approach. We apply this inverse methods to observations from the Humming Roadrunner experiment (New Mexico) and discuss implications for atmospheric updates, explosion characterization, localization and yield estimation.
A new method for RGB to CIELAB color space transformation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo
Chen, Yajun; Liu, Ding; Liang, Junli
2013-10-01
During printing quality inspection, the inspection of color error is an important content. However, the RGB color space is device-dependent, usually RGB color captured from CCD camera must be transformed into CIELAB color space, which is perceptually uniform and device-independent. To cope with the problem, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based algorithms for the RGB to the CIELAB color space transformation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the modeling color targets and testing color targets is established, respectively used in modeling and performance testing process. Secondly, we derive a Bayesian model for estimation the coefficients of a polynomial, which can be used to describe the relation between RGB and CIELAB color space. Thirdly, a Markov chain is set up base on Gibbs sampling algorithm (one of the MCMC algorithm) to estimate the coefficients of polynomial. Finally, the color difference of testing color targets is computed for evaluating the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results showed that the nonlinear polynomial regression based on MCMC algorithm is effective, whose performance is similar to the least square approach and can accurately model the RGB to the CIELAB color space conversion and guarantee the color error evaluation for printing quality inspection system.
Hsu, Hsiao-Ping; Binder, Kurt
2012-01-14
Semiflexible macromolecules in dilute solution under very good solvent conditions are modeled by self-avoiding walks on the simple cubic lattice (d = 3 dimensions) and square lattice (d = 2 dimensions), varying chain stiffness by an energy penalty ε(b) for chain bending. In the absence of excluded volume interactions, the persistence length l(p) of the polymers would then simply be l(p) = l(b)(2d - 2)(-1)q(b) (-1) with q(b) = exp(-ε(b)/k(B)T), the bond length l(b) being the lattice spacing, and k(B)T is the thermal energy. Using Monte Carlo simulations applying the pruned-enriched Rosenbluth method (PERM), both q(b) and the chain length N are varied over a wide range (0.005 ≤ q(b) ≤ 1, N ≤ 50,000), and also a stretching force f is applied to one chain end (fixing the other end at the origin). In the absence of this force, in d = 2 a single crossover from rod-like behavior (for contour lengths less than l(p)) to swollen coils occurs, invalidating the Kratky-Porod model, while in d = 3 a double crossover occurs, from rods to Gaussian coils (as implied by the Kratky-Porod model) and then to coils that are swollen due to the excluded volume interaction. If the stretching force is applied, excluded volume interactions matter for the force versus extension relation irrespective of chain stiffness in d = 2, while theories based on the Kratky-Porod model are found to work in d = 3 for stiff chains in an intermediate regime of chain extensions. While for q(b) ≪ 1 in this model a persistence length can be estimated from the initial decay of bond-orientational correlations, it is argued that this is not possible for more complex wormlike chains (e.g., bottle-brush polymers). Consequences for the proper interpretation of experiments are briefly discussed. PMID:22260610
Dunn, William L
2012-01-01
Exploring Monte Carlo Methods is a basic text that describes the numerical methods that have come to be known as "Monte Carlo." The book treats the subject generically through the first eight chapters and, thus, should be of use to anyone who wants to learn to use Monte Carlo. The next two chapters focus on applications in nuclear engineering, which are illustrative of uses in other fields. Five appendices are included, which provide useful information on probability distributions, general-purpose Monte Carlo codes for radiation transport, and other matters. The famous "Buffon's needle proble
Fitting complex population models by combining particle filters with Markov chain Monte Carlo.
Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry
2012-02-01
We show how a recent framework combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with particle filters (PFMCMC) may be used to estimate population state-space models. With the purpose of utilizing the strengths of each method, PFMCMC explores hidden states by particle filters, while process and observation parameters are estimated using an MCMC algorithm. PFMCMC is exemplified by analyzing time series data on a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in New South Wales, Australia, using MCMC over model parameters based on an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We fit three population models to these data; a density-dependent logistic diffusion model with environmental variance, an unregulated stochastic exponential growth model, and a random-walk model. Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities show that there is little support for density dependence and that the random-walk model is the most parsimonious model. The particle filter Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a brute-force method that may be used to fit a range of complex population models. Implementation is straightforward and less involved than standard MCMC for many models, and marginal densities for model selection can be obtained with little additional effort. The cost is mainly computational, resulting in long running times that may be improved by parallelizing the algorithm. PMID:22624307
Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis to constrain dark matter properties with directional detection
Directional detection is a promising dark matter search strategy. Indeed, weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-induced recoils would present a direction dependence toward the Cygnus constellation, while background-induced recoils exhibit an isotropic distribution in the Galactic rest frame. Taking advantage of these characteristic features, and even in the presence of a sizeable background, it has recently been shown that data from forthcoming directional detectors could lead either to a competitive exclusion or to a conclusive discovery, depending on the value of the WIMP-nucleon cross section. However, it is possible to further exploit these upcoming data by using the strong dependence of the WIMP signal with: the WIMP mass and the local WIMP velocity distribution. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of recoil events, we show for the first time the possibility to constrain the unknown WIMP parameters, both from particle physics (mass and cross section) and Galactic halo (velocity dispersion along the three axis), leading to an identification of non-baryonic dark matter.
Cosmological constraints on generalized Chaplygin gas model: Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach
We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to investigate a global constraints on the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) model as the unification of dark matter and dark energy from the latest observational data: the Constitution dataset of type supernovae Ia (SNIa), the observational Hubble data (OHD), the cluster X-ray gas mass fraction, the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. In a non-flat universe, the constraint results for GCG model are, Ωbh2 = 0.0235+0.0021−0.0018 (1σ) +0.0028−0.0022 (2σ), Ωk = 0.0035+0.0172−0.0182 (1σ) +0.0226−0.0204 (2σ), As = 0.753+0.037−0.035 (1σ) +0.045−0.044 (2σ), α = 0.043+0.102−0.106 (1σ) +0.134−0.117 (2σ), and H0 = 70.00+3.25−2.92 (1σ) +3.77−3.67 (2σ), which is more stringent than the previous results for constraint on GCG model parameters. Furthermore, according to the information criterion, it seems that the current observations much support ΛCDM model relative to the GCG model
An adaptive Monte-Carlo Markov chain algorithm for inference from mixture signals
Adaptive Metropolis (AM) is a powerful recent algorithmic tool in numerical Bayesian data analysis. AM builds on a well-known Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm but optimizes the rate of convergence to the target distribution by automatically tuning the design parameters of the algorithm on the fly. Label switching is a major problem in inference on mixture models because of the invariance to symmetries. The simplest (non-adaptive) solution is to modify the prior in order to make it select a single permutation of the variables, introducing an identifiability constraint. This solution is known to cause artificial biases by not respecting the topology of the posterior. In this paper we describe an online relabeling procedure which can be incorporated into the AM algorithm. We give elements of convergence of the algorithm and identify the link between its modified target measure and the original posterior distribution of interest. We illustrate the algorithm on a synthetic mixture model inspired by the muonic water Cherenkov signal of the surface detectors in the Pierre Auger Experiment.
Monte Carlo simulation of the data acquisition chain of scintillation detectors
The good performance of a detector can be strongly affected by the instrumentation used to acquire the data. The possibility of anticipating how the acquisition chain will affect the signal can help in finding the best solution among different set-ups. In this work we developed a Monte Carlo code that aims to simulate the effect of the various components of a digital Data Acquisition system (DAQ) applied to scintillation detectors. The components included in the model are: the scintillator, the photomultiplier tube (PMT), the signal cable and the digitizer. We benchmarked the code against real data acquired with a NE213 scintillator, comparing simulated and real signal pulses induced by gamma-ray interaction. Then we studied the dependence of the energy resolution of a pulse height spectrum (PHS) on the sampling frequency and the bit resolution of the digitizer. We found that exceeding some values of the sampling frequency and the bit resolution improves only marginally the performance of the system. The method can be applied for the study of various detector systems relevant for nuclear techniques, such as in fusion diagnostics
Monte Carlo simulation of the data acquisition chain of scintillation detectors
Binda, F.; Ericsson, G.; Hellesen, C.; Hjalmarsson, A.; Eriksson, J.; Skiba, M.; Conroy, S.; Weiszflog, M.
2014-08-01
The good performance of a detector can be strongly affected by the instrumentation used to acquire the data. The possibility of anticipating how the acquisition chain will affect the signal can help in finding the best solution among different set-ups. In this work we developed a Monte Carlo code that aims to simulate the effect of the various components of a digital Data Acquisition system (DAQ) applied to scintillation detectors. The components included in the model are: the scintillator, the photomultiplier tube (PMT), the signal cable and the digitizer. We benchmarked the code against real data acquired with a NE213 scintillator, comparing simulated and real signal pulses induced by gamma-ray interaction. Then we studied the dependence of the energy resolution of a pulse height spectrum (PHS) on the sampling frequency and the bit resolution of the digitizer. We found that exceeding some values of the sampling frequency and the bit resolution improves only marginally the performance of the system. The method can be applied for the study of various detector systems relevant for nuclear techniques, such as in fusion diagnostics.
Dynamical Models for NGC 6503 using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Technique
Puglielli, David; Courteau, Stéphane
2010-01-01
We use Bayesian statistics and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to construct dynamical models for the spiral galaxy NGC 6503. The constraints include surface brightness profiles which display a Freeman Type II structure; HI and ionized gas rotation curves; the stellar rotation, which is nearly coincident with the ionized gas curve; and the line of sight stellar dispersion, with a sigma-drop at the centre. The galaxy models consist of a Sersic bulge, an exponential disc with an optional inner truncation and a cosmologically motivated dark halo. The Bayesian/MCMC technique yields the joint posterior probability distribution function for the input parameters. We examine several interpretations of the data: the Type II surface brightness profile may be due to dust extinction, to an inner truncated disc or to a ring of bright stars; and we test separate fits to the gas and stellar rotation curves to determine if the gas traces the gravitational potential. We test each of these scenarios for bar stability...
Markov chain Monte Carlo based analysis of post-translationally modified VDAC1 gating kinetics
Shivendra eTewari
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The voltage-dependent anion channel (VDAC is the main conduit for permeation of solutes (including nucleotides and metabolites of up to 5 kDa across the mitochondrial outer membrane (MOM. Recent studies suggest that VDAC activity is regulated via post-translational modifications (PTMs. Yet the nature and effect of these modifications is not understood. Herein, single channel currents of wild-type, nitrosated and phosphorylated VDAC are analyzed using a generalized continuous-time Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method. This developed method describes three distinct conducting states (open, half-open, and closed of VDAC1 activity. Lipid bilayer experiments are also performed to record single VDAC activity under un-phosphorylated and phosphorylated conditions, and are analyzed using the developed stochastic search method. Experimental data show significant alteration in VDAC gating kinetics and conductance as a result of PTMs. The effect of PTMs on VDAC kinetics is captured in the parameters associated with the identified Markov model. Stationary distributions of the Markov model suggests that nitrosation of VDAC not only decreased its conductance but also significantly locked VDAC in a closed state. On the other hand, stationary distributions of the model associated with un-phosphorylated and phosphorylated VDAC suggest a reversal in channel conformation from relatively closed state to an open state. Model analyses of the nitrosated data suggest that faster reaction of nitric oxide with Cys-127 thiol group might be responsible for the biphasic effect of nitric oxide on basal VDAC conductance.
Improving Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in LISA Pathfinder Data Analysis
The LISA Pathfinder mission (LPF) aims to test key technologies for the future LISA mission. The LISA Technology Package (LTP) on-board LPF will consist of an exhaustive suite of experiments and its outcome will be crucial for the future detection of gravitational waves. In order to achieve maximum sensitivity, we need to have an understanding of every instrument on-board and parametrize the properties of the underlying noise models. The Data Analysis team has developed algorithms for parameter estimation of the system. A very promising one implemented for LISA Pathfinder data analysis is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo. A series of experiments are going to take place during flight operations and each experiment is going to provide us with essential information for the next in the sequence. Therefore, it is a priority to optimize and improve our tools available for data analysis during the mission. Using a Bayesian framework analysis allows us to apply prior knowledge for each experiment, which means that we can efficiently use our prior estimates for the parameters, making the method more accurate and significantly faster. This, together with other algorithm improvements, will lead us to our main goal, which is no other than creating a robust and reliable tool for parameter estimation during the LPF mission.
Murakami, Yohei; Takada, Shoji
2013-01-01
When exact values of model parameters in systems biology are not available from experiments, they need to be inferred so that the resulting simulation reproduces the experimentally known phenomena. For the purpose, Bayesian statistics with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a useful method. Biological experiments are often performed with cell population, and the results are represented by histograms. On another front, experiments sometimes indicate the existence of a specific bifurcation patt...
Monte Carlo simulation has been used to study the configurational properties of a lattice-model isolated polyelectrolyte with attractive segment--segment interaction potentials. This model provides a simple representation of a hydrophobic polyelectrolyte. Configurational properties were investigated as a function of chain ionization, Debye screening length, and segment--segment potential. For chains with highly attractive segment--segment potentials (i.e., hydrophobic chains), large, global changes in polymer dimensions were observed with increasing ionization. The transformation from a collapsed chain at low ionization to an expanded chain at high ionization becomes increasingly sharp (i.e., occurs over a smaller range of ionization) with increasing chain hydrophobicity. The ionization-induced structural transitions for this model hydrophobic polyelectrolyte are analogous to pH-induced transitions seen in real polyelectrolytes and gels. These studies suggest a simple explanation for such transitions based on competing hydrophilic and hydrophobic interactions
DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR NGC 6503 USING A MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO TECHNIQUE
We use Bayesian statistics and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to construct dynamical models for the spiral galaxy NGC 6503. The constraints include surface brightness (SB) profiles which display a Freeman Type II structure; H I and ionized gas rotation curves; the stellar rotation, which is nearly coincident with the ionized gas curve; and the line of sight stellar dispersion, which displays a σ-drop at the center. The galaxy models consist of a Sersic bulge, an exponential disk with an optional inner truncation and a cosmologically motivated dark halo. The Bayesian/MCMC technique yields the joint posterior probability distribution function for the input parameters, allowing constraints on model parameters such as the halo cusp strength, structural parameters for the disk and bulge, and mass-to-light ratios. We examine several interpretations of the data: the Type II SB profile may be due to dust extinction, to an inner truncated disk, or to a ring of bright stars, and we test separate fits to the gas and stellar rotation curves to determine if the gas traces the gravitational potential. We test each of these scenarios for bar stability, ruling out dust extinction. We also find that the gas likely does not trace the gravitational potential, since the predicted stellar rotation curve, which includes asymmetric drift, is then inconsistent with the observed stellar rotation curve. The disk is well fit by an inner-truncated profile, but the possibility of ring formation by a bar to reproduce the Type II profile is also a realistic model. We further find that the halo must have a cuspy profile with γ ∼> 1; the bulge has a lower M/L than the disk, suggesting a star-forming component in the center of the galaxy; and the bulge, as expected for this late-type galaxy, has a low Sersic index with nb ∼ 1-2, suggesting a formation history dominated by secular evolution.
BENCHMARK TESTS FOR MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO FITTING OF EXOPLANET ECLIPSE OBSERVATIONS
Ground-based observations of exoplanet eclipses provide important clues to the planets' atmospheric physics, yet systematics in light curve analyses are not fully understood. It is unknown if measurements suggesting near-infrared flux densities brighter than models predict are real, or artifacts of the analysis processes. We created a large suite of model light curves, using both synthetic and real noise, and tested the common process of light curve modeling and parameter optimization with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. With synthetic white noise models, we find that input eclipse signals are generally recovered within 10% accuracy for eclipse depths greater than the noise amplitude, and to smaller depths for higher sampling rates and longer baselines. Red noise models see greater discrepancies between input and measured eclipse signals, often biased in one direction. Finally, we find that in real data, systematic biases result even with a complex model to account for trends, and significant false eclipse signals may appear in a non-Gaussian distribution. To quantify the bias and validate an eclipse measurement, we compare both the planet-hosting star and several of its neighbors to a separately chosen control sample of field stars. Re-examining the Rogers et al. Ks-band measurement of CoRoT-1b finds an eclipse 3190+370-440 ppm deep centered at φme = 0.50418+0.00197-0.00203. Finally, we provide and recommend the use of selected data sets we generated as a benchmark test for eclipse modeling and analysis routines, and propose criteria to verify eclipse detections.
Input estimation for drug discovery using optimal control and Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches.
Trägårdh, Magnus; Chappell, Michael J; Ahnmark, Andrea; Lindén, Daniel; Evans, Neil D; Gennemark, Peter
2016-04-01
Input estimation is employed in cases where it is desirable to recover the form of an input function which cannot be directly observed and for which there is no model for the generating process. In pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modelling, input estimation in linear systems (deconvolution) is well established, while the nonlinear case is largely unexplored. In this paper, a rigorous definition of the input-estimation problem is given, and the choices involved in terms of modelling assumptions and estimation algorithms are discussed. In particular, the paper covers Maximum a Posteriori estimates using techniques from optimal control theory, and full Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. These techniques are implemented using the optimisation software CasADi, and applied to two example problems: one where the oral absorption rate and bioavailability of the drug eflornithine are estimated using pharmacokinetic data from rats, and one where energy intake is estimated from body-mass measurements of mice exposed to monoclonal antibodies targeting the fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) 1c. The results from the analysis are used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the methods used when applied to sparsely sampled data. The presented methods for optimal control are fast and robust, and can be recommended for use in drug discovery. The MCMC-based methods can have long running times and require more expertise from the user. The rigorous definition together with the illustrative examples and suggestions for software serve as a highly promising starting point for application of input-estimation methods to problems in drug discovery. PMID:26932466
Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer
Whitney, Barbara A
2011-01-01
I outline methods for calculating the solution of Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer (MCRT) in scattering, absorption and emission processes of dust and gas, including polarization. I provide a bibliography of relevant papers on methods with astrophysical applications.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Shaw, Milton Sam [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Coe, Joshua D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sewell, Thomas D [UNIV OF MISSOURI-COLUMBIA
2009-01-01
An optimized version of the Nested Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method is applied to the calculation of the Hugoniot for liquid nitrogen. The 'full' system of interest is calculated using density functional theory (DFT) with a 6-31 G* basis set for the configurational energies. The 'reference' system is given by a model potential fit to the anisotropic pair interaction of two nitrogen molecules from DFT calculations. The EOS is sampled in the isobaric-isothermal (NPT) ensemble with a trial move constructed from many Monte Carlo steps in the reference system. The trial move is then accepted with a probability chosen to give the full system distribution. The P's and T's of the reference and full systems are chosen separately to optimize the computational time required to produce the full system EOS. The method is numerically very efficient and predicts a Hugoniot in excellent agreement with experimental data.
Stochastic Monte-Carlo Markov Chain Inversions on Models Regionalized Using Receiver Functions
Larmat, C. S.; Maceira, M.; Kato, Y.; Bodin, T.; Calo, M.; Romanowicz, B. A.; Chai, C.; Ammon, C. J.
2014-12-01
There is currently a strong interest in stochastic approaches to seismic modeling - versus deterministic methods such as gradient methods - due to the ability of these methods to better deal with highly non-linear problems. Another advantage of stochastic methods is that they allow the estimation of the a posteriori probability distribution of the derived parameters, meaning the envisioned Bayesian inversion of Tarantola allowing the quantification of the solution error. The cost to pay of stochastic methods is that they require testing thousands of variations of each unknown parameter and their associated weights to ensure reliable probabilistic inferences. Even with the best High-Performance Computing resources available, 3D stochastic full waveform modeling at the regional scale still remains out-of-reach. We are exploring regionalization as one way to reduce the dimension of the parameter space, allowing the identification of areas in the models that can be treated as one block in a subsequent stochastic inversion. Regionalization is classically performed through the identification of tectonic or structural elements. Lekic & Romanowicz (2011) proposed a new approach with a cluster analysis of the tomographic velocity models instead. Here we present the results of a clustering analysis on the P-wave receiver-functions used in the subsequent inversion. Different clustering algorithms and quality of clustering are tested for different datasets of North America and China. Preliminary results with the kmean clustering algorithm show that an interpolated receiver function wavefield (Chai et al., GRL, in review) improve the agreement with the geological and tectonic regions of North America compared to the traditional approach of stacked receiver functions. After regionalization, 1D profile for each region is stochastically inferred using a parallelized code based on Monte-Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC), and modeling surfacewave-dispersion and receiver
Data measured in hadron-nucleus interactions are studied within the framework of the multi-chain Monte Carlo fragmentation model. Average multiplicities for all charged particles and negative charged particles measured in proton-xenon, antiproton-xenon, proton-argon, antiproton-argon as well as proton-antiproton and proton-proton collisions at 200 GeV/c are compared to Monte Carlo results. Furthermore, comparisons between experimental and Monte Carlo data are presented for rapidity distributions and ratios for projectile protons and different targets. Finally, the differential cross sections Edσ/dp3 measured at fixed transverse momentum of 0.3 GeV/c and p/sub lab/ = 100 GeV/c are shown ranging between approximately 0.2 and 0.8. The Monte Carlo curves to be compared with are corrected by some factor due to the using of all transverse momenta in order to obtain the Monte Carlo results
Wollaber, Allan Benton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-06-16
This is a powerpoint which serves as lecture material for the Parallel Computing summer school. It goes over the fundamentals of Monte Carlo. Welcome to Los Alamos, the birthplace of “Monte Carlo” for computational physics. Stanislaw Ulam, John von Neumann, and Nicholas Metropolis are credited as the founders of modern Monte Carlo methods. The name “Monte Carlo” was chosen in reference to the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco (purportedly a place where Ulam’s uncle went to gamble). The central idea (for us) – to use computer-generated “random” numbers to determine expected values or estimate equation solutions – has since spread to many fields. "The first thoughts and attempts I made to practice [the Monte Carlo Method] were suggested by a question which occurred to me in 1946 as I was convalescing from an illness and playing solitaires. The question was what are the chances that a Canfield solitaire laid out with 52 cards will come out successfully? After spending a lot of time trying to estimate them by pure combinatorial calculations, I wondered whether a more practical method than “abstract thinking” might not be to lay it out say one hundred times and simply observe and count the number of successful plays... Later [in 1946], I described the idea to John von Neumann, and we began to plan actual calculations." - Stanislaw Ulam.
Bakuzis, Andris Figueiroa; Branquinho, Luis César; e Castro, Leonardo Luiz; e Eloi, Marcos Tiago de Amaral; Miotto, Ronei
2013-05-01
We review the use of Monte Carlo simulations in the description of magnetic nanoparticles dispersed in a liquid carrier. Our main focus is the use of theory and simulation as tools for the description of the properties of ferrofluids. In particular, we report on the influence of polydispersity and short-range interaction on the self-organization of nanoparticles. Such contributions are shown to be extremely important for systems characterized by particles with diameters smaller than 10nm. A new 3D polydisperse Monte Carlo implementation for biocompatible magnetic colloids is proposed. As an example, theoretical and simulation results for an ionic-surfacted ferrofluid dispersed in a NaCl solution are directly compared to experimental data (transmission electron microscopy - TEM, magneto-transmissivity, and electron magnetic resonance - EMR). Our combined theoretical and experimental results suggest that during the aging process two possible mechanisms are likely to be observed: the nanoparticle's grafting decreases due to aggregate formation and the Hamaker constant increases due to oxidation. In addition, we also briefly discuss theoretical agglomerate formation models and compare them to experimental data. PMID:23360743
A new method for the experimental determination of stopping powers based on Bayesian Inference with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm has been devised. This method avoids the difficulties related to thin target preparation. By measuring the RBS spectra for a known material, and using the known underlying physics, the stopping powers are determined by best matching the simulated spectra with the experimental spectra. Using silicon, SiO2 and Al2O3 as test cases, good agreement is obtained between calculated and experimental data. (author)
Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Madsen, Henrik;
2008-01-01
estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty...... within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of...... applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models...
YAO Xiao-yan; LI Peng-lei; DONG Shuai; LIU Jun-ming
2007-01-01
A three-dimensional Ising-like model doped with anti-ferromagnetic (AFM) bonds is proposed to investigate the magnetic properties of a doped triangular spin-chain system by using a Monte-Carlo simulation. The simulated results indicate that a steplike magnetization behavior is very sensitive to the concentration of AFM bonds. A low concentration of AFM bonds can suppress the stepwise behavior considerably, in accordance with doping experiments on Ca3Co206. The analysis of spin snapshots demonstrates that the AFM bond doping not only breaks the ferromagnetic ordered linear spin chains along the hexagonal c-axis but also has a great influence upon the spin configuration in the ab-plane.
Manca, Fabio; Palla, Pier Luca; Cleri, Fabrizio; Colombo, Luciano
2012-01-01
Recent developments of microscopic mechanical experiments allow the manipulation of individual polymer molecules in two main ways: \\textit{uniform} stretching by external forces and \\textit{non-uniform} stretching by external fields. Many results can be thereby obtained for specific kinds of polymers and specific geometries. In this work we describe the non-uniform stretching of a single, non-branched polymer molecule by an external field (e.g. fluid in uniform motion, or uniform electric field) by a universal physical framework which leads to general conclusions on different types of polymers. We derive analytical results both for the freely-jointed chain and the worm-like chain models based on classical statistical mechanics. Moreover, we provide a Monte Carlo numerical analysis of the mechanical properties of flexible and semi-flexible polymers anchored at one end. The simulations confirm the analytical achievements, and moreover allow to study the situations where the theory can not provide explicit and u...
Monte Carlo photon benchmark problems
Photon benchmark calculations have been performed to validate the MCNP Monte Carlo computer code. These are compared to both the COG Monte Carlo computer code and either experimental or analytic results. The calculated solutions indicate that the Monte Carlo method, and MCNP and COG in particular, can accurately model a wide range of physical problems. 8 refs., 5 figs
A stochastic Markov chain approach for tennis: Monte Carlo simulation and modeling
Aslam, Kamran
This dissertation describes the computational formulation of probability density functions (pdfs) that facilitate head-to-head match simulations in tennis along with ranking systems developed from their use. A background on the statistical method used to develop the pdfs , the Monte Carlo method, and the resulting rankings are included along with a discussion on ranking methods currently being used both in professional sports and in other applications. Using an analytical theory developed by Newton and Keller in [34] that defines a tennis player's probability of winning a game, set, match and single elimination tournament, a computational simulation has been developed in Matlab that allows further modeling not previously possible with the analytical theory alone. Such experimentation consists of the exploration of non-iid effects, considers the concept the varying importance of points in a match and allows an unlimited number of matches to be simulated between unlikely opponents. The results of these studies have provided pdfs that accurately model an individual tennis player's ability along with a realistic, fair and mathematically sound platform for ranking them.
Jiang, Hao; Adidharma, Hertanto, E-mail: adidharm@uwyo.edu [Soft Materials Laboratory, Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071-3295 (United States)
2014-11-07
The thermodynamic modeling of flexible charged hard-sphere chains representing polyampholyte or polyelectrolyte molecules in solution is considered. The excess Helmholtz energy and osmotic coefficients of solutions containing short polyampholyte and the osmotic coefficients of solutions containing short polyelectrolytes are determined by performing canonical and isobaric-isothermal Monte Carlo simulations. A new equation of state based on the thermodynamic perturbation theory is also proposed for flexible charged hard-sphere chains. For the modeling of such chains, the use of solely the structure information of monomer fluid for calculating the chain contribution is found to be insufficient and more detailed structure information must therefore be considered. Two approaches, i.e., the dimer and dimer-monomer approaches, are explored to obtain the contribution of the chain formation to the Helmholtz energy. By comparing with the simulation results, the equation of state with either the dimer or dimer-monomer approach accurately predicts the excess Helmholtz energy and osmotic coefficients of polyampholyte and polyelectrolyte solutions except at very low density. It also well captures the effect of temperature on the thermodynamic properties of these solutions.
Wollaber, Allan Benton [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-06-16
This is a powerpoint presentation which serves as lecture material for the Parallel Computing summer school. It goes over the fundamentals of the Monte Carlo calculation method. The material is presented according to the following outline: Introduction (background, a simple example: estimating π), Why does this even work? (The Law of Large Numbers, The Central Limit Theorem), How to sample (inverse transform sampling, rejection), and An example from particle transport.
The contributon Monte Carlo method is based on a new recipe to calculate target responses by means of volume integral of the contributon current in a region between the source and the detector. A comprehensive description of the method, its implementation in the general-purpose MCNP code, and results of the method for realistic nonhomogeneous, energy-dependent problems are presented. 23 figures, 10 tables
Kyungmok Kim
2016-03-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a sliding friction model for an electro-deposited coating. Reciprocating sliding tests using ball-on-flat plate test apparatus are performed to determine an evolution of the kinetic friction coefficient. The evolution of the friction coefficient is classified into the initial running-in period, steady-state sliding, and transition to higher friction. The friction coefficient during the initial running-in period and steady-state sliding is expressed as a simple linear function. The friction coefficient in the transition to higher friction is described with a mathematical model derived from Kachanov-type damage law. The model parameters are then estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC approach. It is identified that estimated friction coefficients obtained by MCMC approach are in good agreement with measured ones.
Kianoush Fathi Vajargah
2015-01-01
Full Text Available An available method of modeling and predicting the economic time series is the use of stochastic differential equations, which are often determined as jump-diffusion stochastic differential equations in financial markets and underlier economic dynamics. Besides the diffusion term that is a geometric Brownian model with Wiener random process, these equations contain a jump term that follows Poisson process and depends on the type of market. This study presented two different models based on a certain class of jump-diffusion stochastic differential equations with random fluctuations: Black- Scholes model and Merton model (1976, including jump-diffusion (JD model, which were compared, and their parameters and hidden variables were evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method.
Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for galactic binaries in Mock LISA Data Challenge 1B data sets
We are developing a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to search for and extract information about white dwarf binary systems with the laser interferometer space antenna (LISA). Here we present results obtained by applying an initial implementation of this method to some of the data sets released in round 1B of the Mock LISA Data Challenges. For Challenges 1B.1.1a and 1b the signals were recovered with parameters lying within the 95.5% posterior probability interval and the correlation between the true and recovered waveform is in excess of 99%. Results were not submitted for Challenge 1B.1.1c due to some convergence problems of the algorithm; despite this, the signal was detected in a search over a 2 mHz band
We have made a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of primordial non-Gaussianity (fNL) using the WMAP bispectrum and power spectrum. In our analysis, we have simultaneously constrained fNL and cosmological parameters so that the uncertainties of cosmological parameters can properly propagate into the fNL estimation. Investigating the parameter likelihoods deduced from MCMC samples, we find slight deviation from Gaussian shape, which makes a Fisher matrix estimation less accurate. Therefore, we have estimated the confidence interval of fNL by exploring the parameter likelihood without using the Fisher matrix. We find that the best-fit values of our analysis make a good agreement with other results, but the confidence interval is slightly different
Farr, Benjamin; Luijten, Erik
2013-01-01
We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our approach minimizes the use of parallel tempering, only using it for a short time to tune a new jump proposal. For complex posteriors we find efficiency improvements up to a factor of ~13. The estimation of parameters of gravitational-wave signals measured by ground-based detectors is currently done through Bayesian inference with MCMC one of the leading sampling methods. Posteriors for these signals are typically multimodal with strong non-linear correlations, making sampling difficult. As we enter the advanced-detector era, improved sensitivities and wider bandwidths will drastically increase the computational cost of analyses, demanding more efficient search algorithms to meet these challenges.
Markov chain Monte Carlo study on dark matter property related to the cosmic e± excesses
In this paper we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo code to study the dark matter properties in frameworks to interpret the recent observations of cosmic ray electron/positron excesses. We assume that the dark matter particles couple dominantly to leptons and consider two cases, annihilating or decaying into lepton pairs, respectively. The constraint on the central density profile from the H.E.S.S. observation of diffuse γ rays around the Galactic center is also included in the Markov chain Monte Carlo code self-consistently. In the numerical study, we have considered two cases of the background: fixed e+e- background and the relaxed one. Two data sets of electrons/positrons, i.e. PAMELA+ATIC (Data set I) and PAMELA+Fermi-LAT+H.E.S.S. (Data set II), are fitted independently, considering the current inconsistence between the observational data. We find that for Data set I, dark matter with mχ≅0.70 TeV for annihilation (or 1.4 TeV for decay) and a non-negligible branching ratio to e+e- channel is favored; while for Data set II, mχ≅2.2 TeV for annihilation (or 4.5 TeV for decay) and the combination of μ+μ- and τ+τ- final states can best fit the data. We also show that the background of electrons and positrons actually will significantly affect the branching ratios. The H.E.S.S. observation of γ rays in the Galactic center ridge puts a strong constraint on the central density profile of the dark matter halo for the annihilation dark matter scenario. In this case the Navarro-Frenk-White profile, which is regarded as the typical predication from the cold dark matter scenario, is excluded with a high significance (>3σ). For the decaying dark matter scenario, the constraint is much weaker.
Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D
2014-11-18
The fitting of statistical distributions to chemical and microbial contamination data is a common application in risk assessment. These distributions are used to make inferences regarding even the most pedestrian of statistics, such as the population mean. The reason for the heavy reliance on a fitted distribution is the presence of left-, right-, and interval-censored observations in the data sets, with censored observations being the result of nondetects in an assay, the use of screening tests, and other practical limitations. Considerable effort has been expended to develop statistical distributions and fitting techniques for a wide variety of applications. Of the various fitting methods, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are common. An underlying assumption for many of the proposed Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods is that the data represent independent and identically distributed (iid) observations from an assumed distribution. This condition is satisfied when samples are collected using a simple random sampling design. Unfortunately, samples of food commodities are generally not collected in accordance with a strict probability design. Nevertheless, pseudosystematic sampling efforts (e.g., collection of a sample hourly or weekly) from a single location in the farm-to-table continuum are reasonable approximations of a simple random sample. The assumption that the data represent an iid sample from a single distribution is more difficult to defend if samples are collected at multiple locations in the farm-to-table continuum or risk-based sampling methods are employed to preferentially select samples that are more likely to be contaminated. This paper develops a weighted bootstrap estimation framework that is appropriate for fitting a distribution to microbiological samples that are collected with unequal probabilities of selection. An example based on microbial data, derived by the Most Probable Number technique, demonstrates the method and highlights the
Manca, Fabio; Giordano, Stefano; Palla, Pier Luca; Cleri, Fabrizio; Colombo, Luciano
2012-12-01
Recent developments of microscopic mechanical experiments allow the manipulation of individual polymer molecules in two main ways: uniform stretching by external forces and non-uniform stretching by external fields. Many results can be thereby obtained for specific kinds of polymers and specific geometries. In this work, we describe the non-uniform stretching of a single, non-branched polymer molecule by an external field (e.g., fluid in uniform motion, or uniform electric field) by a universal physical framework, which leads to general conclusions on different types of polymers. We derive analytical results both for the freely-jointed chain and the worm-like chain models based on classical statistical mechanics. Moreover, we provide a Monte Carlo numerical analysis of the mechanical properties of flexible and semiflexible polymers anchored at one end. The simulations confirm the analytical achievements, and moreover allow to study the situations where the theory cannot provide explicit and useful results. In all cases, we evaluate the average conformation of the polymer and its fluctuation statistics as a function of the chain length, bending rigidity, and field strength.
Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun
2002-01-01
Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)
Optimization of Monte Carlo simulations
Bryskhe, Henrik
2009-01-01
This thesis considers several different techniques for optimizing Monte Carlo simulations. The Monte Carlo system used is Penelope but most of the techniques are applicable to other systems. The two mayor techniques are the usage of the graphics card to do geometry calculations, and raytracing. Using graphics card provides a very efficient way to do fast ray and triangle intersections. Raytracing provides an approximation of Monte Carlo simulation but is much faster to perform. A program was ...
Quantum Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo
We present a path integral Monte Carlo method which is the full quantum analogue of the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo method of Panagiotopoulos to study the gas-liquid coexistence line of a classical fluid. Unlike previous extensions of Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo to include quantum effects, our scheme is viable even for systems with strong quantum delocalization in the degenerate regime of temperature. This is demonstrated by an illustrative application to the gas-superfluid transition of 4He in two dimensions
J. A. Vrugt
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Formal and informal Bayesian approaches are increasingly being used to treat forcing, model structural, parameter and calibration data uncertainty, and summarize hydrologic prediction uncertainty. This requires posterior sampling methods that approximate the (evolving posterior distribution. We recently introduced the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM algorithm, an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method that is especially designed to solve complex, high-dimensional and multimodal posterior probability density functions. The method runs multiple chains in parallel, and maintains detailed balance and ergodicity. Here, I present the latest algorithmic developments, and introduce a discrete sampling variant of DREAM that samples the parameter space at fixed points. The development of this new code, DREAM(D, has been inspired by the existing class of integer optimization problems, and emerging class of experimental design problems. Such non-continuous parameter estimation problems are of considerable theoretical and practical interest. The theory developed herein is applicable to DREAM(ZS (Vrugt et al., 2011 and MT-DREAM(ZS (Laloy and Vrugt, 2011 as well. Two case studies involving a sudoku puzzle and rainfall – runoff model calibration problem are used to illustrate DREAM(D.
The course of ''Monte Carlo Techniques'' will try to give a general overview of how to build up a method based on a given theory, allowing you to compare the outcome of an experiment with that theory. Concepts related with the construction of the method, such as, random variables, distributions of random variables, generation of random variables, random-based numerical methods, will be introduced in this course. Examples of some of the current theories in High Energy Physics describing the e+e- annihilation processes (QED, Electro-Weak, QCD) will also be briefly introduced. A second step in the employment of this method is related to the detector. The interactions that a particle could have along its way, through the detector as well as the response of the different materials which compound the detector will be quoted in this course. An example of detector at LEP era, in which these techniques are being applied, will close the course. (orig.)
Marcus, Ryan C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2012-07-25
MCMini is a proof of concept that demonstrates the possibility for Monte Carlo neutron transport using OpenCL with a focus on performance. This implementation, written in C, shows that tracing particles and calculating reactions on a 3D mesh can be done in a highly scalable fashion. These results demonstrate a potential path forward for MCNP or other Monte Carlo codes.
We study conformational properties of a single multiblock copolymer chain consisting of flexible and semiflexible blocks. Monomer units of different blocks are equivalent in the sense of the volume interaction potential, but the intramolecular bending potential between successive bonds along the chain is different. We consider a single flexible-semiflexible regular multiblock copolymer chain with equal content of flexible and semiflexible units and vary the length of the blocks and the stiffness parameter. We perform flat histogram type Monte Carlo simulations based on the Wang-Landau approach and employ the bond fluctuation lattice model. We present here our data on different non-trivial globular morphologies which we have obtained in our model for different values of the block length and the stiffness parameter. We demonstrate that the collapse can occur in one or in two stages depending on the values of both these parameters and discuss the role of the inhomogeneity of intraglobular distributions of monomer units of both flexible and semiflexible blocks. For short block length and/or large stiffness the collapse occurs in two stages, because it goes through intermediate (meta-)stable structures, like a dumbbell shaped conformation. In such conformations the semiflexible blocks form a cylinder-like core, and the flexible blocks form two domains at both ends of such a cylinder. For long block length and/or small stiffness the collapse occurs in one stage, and in typical conformations the flexible blocks form a spherical core of a globule while the semiflexible blocks are located on the surface and wrap around this core.
Monte Carlo Methods in Physics
Method of Monte Carlo integration is reviewed briefly and some of its applications in physics are explained. A numerical experiment on random generators used in the monte Carlo techniques is carried out to show the behavior of the randomness of various methods in generating them. To account for the weight function involved in the Monte Carlo, the metropolis method is used. From the results of the experiment, one can see that there is no regular patterns of the numbers generated, showing that the program generators are reasonably good, while the experimental results, shows a statistical distribution obeying statistical distribution law. Further some applications of the Monte Carlo methods in physics are given. The choice of physical problems are such that the models have available solutions either in exact or approximate values, in which comparisons can be mode, with the calculations using the Monte Carlo method. Comparison show that for the models to be considered, good agreement have been obtained
LIU; Jianfeng; ZHANG; Yuan; ZHANG; Qin; WANG; Lixian; ZHANG; Jigang
2006-01-01
It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.
Pan, J.; Durand, M. T.; Vanderjagt, B. J.
2015-12-01
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a retrieval algorithm based on Bayes' rule, which starts from an initial state of snow/soil parameters, and updates it to a series of new states by comparing the posterior probability of simulated snow microwave signals before and after each time of random walk. It is a realization of the Bayes' rule, which gives an approximation to the probability of the snow/soil parameters in condition of the measured microwave TB signals at different bands. Although this method could solve all snow parameters including depth, density, snow grain size and temperature at the same time, it still needs prior information of these parameters for posterior probability calculation. How the priors will influence the SWE retrieval is a big concern. Therefore, in this paper at first, a sensitivity test will be carried out to study how accurate the snow emission models and how explicit the snow priors need to be to maintain the SWE error within certain amount. The synthetic TB simulated from the measured snow properties plus a 2-K observation error will be used for this purpose. It aims to provide a guidance on the MCMC application under different circumstances. Later, the method will be used for the snowpits at different sites, including Sodankyla, Finland, Churchill, Canada and Colorado, USA, using the measured TB from ground-based radiometers at different bands. Based on the previous work, the error in these practical cases will be studied, and the error sources will be separated and quantified.
Bonamente, Massimillano; Joy, Marshall K.; Carlstrom, John E.; Reese, Erik D.; LaRoque, Samuel J.
2004-01-01
X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect data can be combined to determine the distance to galaxy clusters. High-resolution X-ray data are now available from Chandra, which provides both spatial and spectral information, and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect data were obtained from the BIMA and Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) arrays. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure for the joint analysis of X-ray and Sunyaev- Zel'dovich effect data. The advantages of this method are the high computational efficiency and the ability to measure simultaneously the probability distribution of all parameters of interest, such as the spatial and spectral properties of the cluster gas and also for derivative quantities such as the distance to the cluster. We demonstrate this technique by applying it to the Chandra X-ray data and the OVRO radio data for the galaxy cluster A611. Comparisons with traditional likelihood ratio methods reveal the robustness of the method. This method will be used in follow-up paper to determine the distances to a large sample of galaxy cluster.
In this paper, we report the results of constraining the holographic dark energy model with spatial curvature and massive neutrinos, based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo global fit technique. The cosmic observational data include the full WMAP 7-yr temperature and polarization data, the type Ia supernova data from Union2.1 sample, the baryon acoustic oscillation data from SDSS DR7 and WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey, and the latest measurements of H0 from HST. To deal with the perturbations of dark energy, we adopt the parameterized post-Friedmann method. We find that, for the simplest holographic dark energy model without spatial curvature and massive neutrinos, the phenomenological parameter c k0 are still in order of 10−2; for the model with massive neutrinos but without spatial curvature, the 2σ upper bound of the total mass of neutrinos is Σmν ν by more than 2 times. In addition, we demonstrate that, making use of the full WMAP data can give better constraints on the holographic dark energy model, compared with the case using the WMAP ''distance priors''
Moradkhani, Hamid; Yan, Hongxiang
2016-04-01
Soil moisture simulation and prediction are increasingly used to characterize agricultural droughts but the process suffers from data scarcity and quality. The satellite soil moisture observations could be used to improve model predictions with data assimilation. Remote sensing products, however, are typically discontinuous in spatial-temporal coverages; while simulated soil moisture products are potentially biased due to the errors in forcing data, parameters, and deficiencies of model physics. This study attempts to provide a detailed analysis of the joint and separate assimilation of streamflow and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) surface soil moisture into a fully distributed hydrologic model, with the use of recently developed particle filter-Markov chain Monte Carlo (PF-MCMC) method. A geostatistical model is introduced to overcome the satellite soil moisture discontinuity issue where satellite data does not cover the whole study region or is significantly biased, and the dominant land cover is dense vegetation. The results indicate that joint assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow has minimal effect in improving the streamflow prediction, however, the surface soil moisture field is significantly improved. The combination of DA and geostatistical approach can further improve the surface soil moisture prediction.
Minsley, B.J.
2011-01-01
A meaningful interpretation of geophysical measurements requires an assessment of the space of models that are consistent with the data, rather than just a single, 'best' model which does not convey information about parameter uncertainty. For this purpose, a trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for assessing frequency-domain electromagnetic (FDEM) data acquired from airborne or ground-based systems. By sampling the distribution of models that are consistent with measured data and any prior knowledge, valuable inferences can be made about parameter values such as the likely depth to an interface, the distribution of possible resistivity values as a function of depth and non-unique relationships between parameters. The trans-dimensional aspect of the algorithm allows the number of layers to be a free parameter that is controlled by the data, where models with fewer layers are inherently favoured, which provides a natural measure of parsimony and a significant degree of flexibility in parametrization. The MCMC algorithm is used with synthetic examples to illustrate how the distribution of acceptable models is affected by the choice of prior information, the system geometry and configuration and the uncertainty in the measured system elevation. An airborne FDEM data set that was acquired for the purpose of hydrogeological characterization is also studied. The results compare favourably with traditional least-squares analysis, borehole resistivity and lithology logs from the site, and also provide new information about parameter uncertainty necessary for model assessment. ?? 2011. Geophysical Journal International ?? 2011 RAS.
A self-avoiding walk adsorbing on a line in the square lattice, and on a plane in the cubic lattice, is studied numerically as a model of an adsorbing polymer in dilute solution. The walk is simulated by a multiple Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of the pivot algorithm for self-avoiding walks. Vertices in the walk that are visits in the adsorbing line or plane are weighted by eβ. The critical value of β, where the walk adsorbs on the adsorbing line or adsorbing plane, is determined by considering energy ratios and approximations to the free energy. We determine that the critical values of β are βc = 0.565±0.010 in the square lattice and βc = 0.288±0.020 in the cubic lattice. In addition, the value of the crossover exponent is determined: Φ = 0.501±0.015 in the square lattice and Φ = 0.5005±0.0036 in the cubic lattice. Metric quantities, including the mean square radius of gyration, are also considered, as well as rescaling of the specific heat and free energy, as the critical point is approached
Tang, Qunshu; Hobbs, Richard; Zheng, Chan; Biescas, Berta; Caiado, Camila
2016-06-01
Marine seismic reflection technique is used to observe the strong ocean dynamic process of nonlinear internal solitary waves (ISWs or solitons) in the near-surface water. Analysis of ISWs is problematical because of their transient nature and limitations of classical physical oceanography methods. This work explores a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to recover the temperature and salinity of ISW field using the seismic reflectivity data and in situ hydrographic data. The MCMC approach is designed to directly sample the posterior probability distributions of temperature and salinity which are the solutions of the system under investigation. The principle improvement is the capability of incorporating uncertainties in observations and prior models which then provide quantified uncertainties in the output model parameters. We tested the MCMC approach on two acoustic reflectivity data sets one synthesized from a CTD cast and the other derived from multichannel seismic reflections. This method finds the solutions faithfully within the significantly narrowed confidence intervals from the provided priors. Combined with a low frequency initial model interpreted from seismic horizons of ISWs, the MCMC method is used to compute the finescale temperature, salinity, acoustic velocity, and density of ISW field. The statistically derived results are equivalent to the conventional linearized inversion method. However, the former provides us the quantified uncertainties of the temperature and salinity along the whole section whilst the latter does not. These results are the first time ISWs have been mapped with sufficient detail for further analysis of their dynamic properties.
Geng, Bo; Zhou, Xiaobo; Zhu, Jinmin; Hung, Y S; Wong, Stephen T C
2008-04-01
Computational identification of missing enzymes plays a significant role in accurate and complete reconstruction of metabolic network for both newly sequenced and well-studied organisms. For a metabolic reaction, given a set of candidate enzymes identified according to certain biological evidences, a powerful mathematical model is required to predict the actual enzyme(s) catalyzing the reactions. In this study, several plausible predictive methods are considered for the classification problem in missing enzyme identification, and comparisons are performed with an aim to identify a method with better performance than the Bayesian model used in previous work. In particular, a regression model consisting of a linear term and a nonlinear term is proposed to apply to the problem, in which the reversible jump Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) learning technique (developed in [Andrieu C, Freitas Nando de, Doucet A. Robust full Bayesian learning for radial basis networks 2001;13:2359-407.]) is adopted to estimate the model order and the parameters. We evaluated the models using known reactions in Escherichia coli, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Vibrio cholerae and Caulobacter cresentus bacteria, as well as one eukaryotic organism, Saccharomyces Cerevisiae. Although support vector regression also exhibits comparable performance in this application, it was demonstrated that the proposed model achieves favorable prediction performance, particularly sensitivity, compared with the Bayesian method. PMID:17950040
David G. Gadian
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A common feature of many magnetic resonance image (MRI data processing methods is the voxel-by-voxel (a voxel is a volume element manner in which the processing is performed. In general, however, MRI data are expected to exhibit some level of spatial correlation, rendering an independent-voxels treatment inefficient in its use of the data. Bayesian random effect models are expected to be more efficient owing to their information-borrowing behaviour. To illustrate the Bayesian random effects approach, this paper outlines a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis of a perfusion MRI dataset, implemented in R using the BRugs package. BRugs provides an interface to WinBUGS and its GeoBUGS add-on. WinBUGS is a widely used programme for performing MCMC analyses, with a focus on Bayesian random effect models. A simultaneous modeling of both voxels (restricted to a region of interest and multiple subjects is demonstrated. Despite the low signal-to-noise ratio in the magnetic resonance signal intensity data, useful model signal intensity profiles are obtained. The merits of random effects modeling are discussed in comparison with the alternative approaches based on region-of-interest averaging and repeated independent voxels analysis. This paper focuses on perfusion MRI for the purpose of illustration, the main proposition being that random effects modeling is expected to be beneficial in many other MRI applications in which the signal-to-noise ratio is a limiting factor.
Johannesson, G; Glaser, R E; Lee, C L; Nitao, J J; Hanley, W G
2005-02-07
Estimating unknown system configurations/parameters by combining system knowledge gained from a computer simulation model on one hand and from observed data on the other hand is challenging. An example of such inverse problem is detecting and localizing potential flaws or changes in a structure by using a finite-element model and measured vibration/displacement data. We propose a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian methodology. This approach does not only yield a single best-guess solution, but a posterior probability distribution over the parameter space. In addition, the Bayesian approach provides a natural framework to accommodate prior knowledge. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is proposed to generate samples from the posterior distribution (an ensemble of likely system configurations given the data). The MCMC procedure proposed explores the parameter space at different resolutions (scales), resulting in a more robust and efficient procedure. The large-scale exploration steps are carried out using coarser-resolution finite-element models, yielding a considerable decrease in computational time, which can be a crucial for large finite-element models. An application is given using synthetic displacement data from a simple cantilever beam with MCMC exploration carried out at three different resolutions.
Saloranta, Tuomo M; Armitage, James M; Haario, Heikki; Naes, Kristoffer; Cousins, Ian T; Barton, David N
2008-01-01
Multimedia environmental fate models are useful tools to investigate the long-term impacts of remediation measures designed to alleviate potential ecological and human health concerns in contaminated areas. Estimating and communicating the uncertainties associated with the model simulations is a critical task for demonstrating the transparency and reliability of the results. The Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test(Extended FAST) method for sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for uncertainty analysis and model calibration have several advantages over methods typically applied for multimedia environmental fate models. Most importantly, the simulation results and their uncertainties can be anchored to the available observations and their uncertainties. We apply these techniques for simulating the historical fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) in the Grenland fjords, Norway, and for predicting the effects of different contaminated sediment remediation (capping) scenarios on the future levels of PCDD/Fs in cod and crab therein. The remediation scenario simulations show that a significant remediation effect can first be seen when significant portions of the contaminated sediment areas are cleaned up, and that increase in capping area leads to both earlier achievement of good fjord status and narrower uncertainty in the predicted timing for this. PMID:18350897
Mondal, A.
2010-03-01
In this paper, we study the uncertainty quantification in inverse problems for flows in heterogeneous porous media. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are used for hierarchical modeling of channelized permeability fields. Within each channel, the permeability is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. Uncertainty quantification in history matching is carried out hierarchically by constructing geologic facies boundaries as well as permeability fields within each facies using dynamic data such as production data. The search with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm results in very low acceptance rate, and consequently, the computations are CPU demanding. To speed-up the computations, we use a two-stage MCMC that utilizes upscaled models to screen the proposals. In our numerical results, we assume that the channels intersect the wells and the intersection locations are known. Our results show that the proposed algorithms are capable of capturing the channel boundaries and describe the permeability variations within the channels using dynamic production history at the wells. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
We present a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis in the low signal-to-noise regime. This method builds on and complements the previously described CMB Gibbs sampler, and effectively solves the low signal-to-noise inefficiency problem of the direct Gibbs sampler. The new algorithm is a simple Metropolis-Hastings sampler with a general proposal rule for the power spectrum, C l, followed by a particular deterministic rescaling operation of the sky signal, s. The acceptance probability for this joint move depends on the sky map only through the difference of χ2 between the original and proposed sky sample, which is close to unity in the low signal-to-noise regime. The algorithm is completed by alternating this move with a standard Gibbs move. Together, these two proposals constitute a computationally efficient algorithm for mapping out the full joint CMB posterior, both in the high and low signal-to-noise regimes.
A MONTE CARLO MARKOV CHAIN BASED INVESTIGATION OF BLACK HOLE SPIN IN THE ACTIVE GALAXY NGC 3783
The analysis of relativistically broadened X-ray spectral features from the inner accretion disk provides a powerful tool for measuring the spin of supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, AGN spectra are often complex and careful analysis employing appropriate and self-consistent models is required if one has to obtain robust results. In this paper, we revisit the deep 2009 July Suzaku observation of the Seyfert galaxy NGC 3783 in order to study in a rigorous manner the robustness of the inferred black hole spin parameter. Using Monte Carlo Markov chain techniques, we identify a (partial) modeling degeneracy between the iron abundance of the disk and the black hole spin parameter. We show that the data for NGC 3783 strongly require both supersolar iron abundance (ZFe = 2-4 Z☉) and a rapidly spinning black hole (a > 0.89). We discuss various astrophysical considerations that can affect the measured abundance. We note that, while the abundance enhancement inferred in NGC 3783 is modest, the X-ray analysis of some other objects has found extreme iron abundances. We introduce the hypothesis that the radiative levitation of iron ions in the innermost regions of radiation-dominated AGN disks can enhance the photospheric abundance of iron. We show that radiative levitation is a plausible mechanism in the very inner regions of high accretion rate AGN disks.
Geodesic Monte Carlo on Embedded Manifolds.
Byrne, Simon; Girolami, Mark
2013-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods explicitly defined on the manifold of probability distributions have recently been established. These methods are constructed from diffusions across the manifold and the solution of the equations describing geodesic flows in the Hamilton-Jacobi representation. This paper takes the differential geometric basis of Markov chain Monte Carlo further by considering methods to simulate from probability distributions that themselves are defined on a manifold, with common examples being classes of distributions describing directional statistics. Proposal mechanisms are developed based on the geodesic flows over the manifolds of support for the distributions, and illustrative examples are provided for the hypersphere and Stiefel manifold of orthonormal matrices. PMID:25309024
Dynamic temperature selection for parallel tempering in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
Vousden, W. D.; Farr, W. M.; Mandel, I.
2016-01-01
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multimodal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as MCMC sampling, perform poorly on strongly multimodal probability distributions, rarely jumping between modes or settling on just one mode without finding others. Parallel tempering addresses this problem by sampling simultaneously with separate Markov chains from tempered versions of the target distribution with reduced contrast levels. Gaps between modes can be traversed at higher temperatures, while individual modes can be efficiently explored at lower temperatures. In this paper, we investigate how one might choose the ladder of temperatures to achieve more efficient sampling, as measured by the autocorrelation time of the sampler. In particular, we present a simple, easily implemented algorithm for dynamically adapting the temperature configuration of a sampler while sampling. This algorithm dynamically adjusts the temperature spacing to achieve a uniform rate of exchanges between chains at neighbouring temperatures. We compare the algorithm to conventional geometric temperature configurations on a number of test distributions and on an astrophysical inference problem, reporting efficiency gains by a factor of 1.2-2.5 over a well-chosen geometric temperature configuration and by a factor of 1.5-5 over a poorly chosen configuration. On all of these problems, a sampler using the dynamical adaptations to achieve uniform acceptance ratios between neighbouring chains outperforms one that does not.
Waldmann, Patrik; Hallander, Jon; Hoti, Fabian; Sillanpää, Mikko J
2008-06-01
Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general pedigrees without inbreeding. To optimize between computational time and good mixing of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains, we used a hybrid Gibbs sampler that combines a single site and a blocked Gibbs sampler. The speed of the hybrid sampler and the mixing of the single-site sampler were further improved by the use of pretransformed variables. Two traits (height and trunk diameter) from a previously published diallel progeny test of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and two large simulated data sets with different levels of dominance variance were analyzed. We also performed Bayesian model comparison on the basis of the posterior predictive loss approach. Results showed that models with both additive and dominance components had the best fit for both height and diameter and for the simulated data with high dominance. For the simulated data with low dominance, we needed an informative prior to avoid the dominance variance component becoming overestimated. The narrow-sense heritability estimates in the Scots pine data were lower compared to the earlier results, which is not surprising because the level of dominance variance was rather high, especially for diameter. In general, the hybrid sampler was considerably faster than the blocked sampler and displayed better mixing properties than the single-site sampler. PMID:18558655
Waldmann, Patrik; Hallander, Jon; Hoti, Fabian; Sillanpää, Mikko J.
2008-01-01
Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general pedigrees without inbreeding. To optimize between computational time and good mixing of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains, we used a hybrid Gibbs sampler that combines a single site and a blocked Gibbs sampler. The speed of the hybrid sampler and the mixing of the single-site sampler were further improved by the use of pretransformed variables. Two traits (height and trunk diameter) from a previously published diallel progeny test of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and two large simulated data sets with different levels of dominance variance were analyzed. We also performed Bayesian model comparison on the basis of the posterior predictive loss approach. Results showed that models with both additive and dominance components had the best fit for both height and diameter and for the simulated data with high dominance. For the simulated data with low dominance, we needed an informative prior to avoid the dominance variance component becoming overestimated. The narrow-sense heritability estimates in the Scots pine data were lower compared to the earlier results, which is not surprising because the level of dominance variance was rather high, especially for diameter. In general, the hybrid sampler was considerably faster than the blocked sampler and displayed better mixing properties than the single-site sampler. PMID:18558655
Zhang, Junlong; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Chen, Xi; Bao, Anming
2016-07-01
Without a realistic assessment of parameter uncertainty, decision makers may encounter difficulties in accurately describing hydrologic processes and assessing relationships between model parameters and watershed characteristics. In this study, a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis (MCMC-MFA) method is developed, which can not only generate samples of parameters from a well constructed Markov chain and assess parameter uncertainties with straightforward Bayesian inference, but also investigate the individual and interactive effects of multiple parameters on model output through measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses. A case study is conducted for addressing parameter uncertainties in the Kaidu watershed of northwest China. Effects of multiple parameters and their interactions are quantitatively investigated using the MCMC-MFA with a three-level factorial experiment (totally 81 runs). A variance-based sensitivity analysis method is used to validate the results of parameters' effects. Results disclose that (i) soil conservation service runoff curve number for moisture condition II (CN2) and fraction of snow volume corresponding to 50% snow cover (SNO50COV) are the most significant factors to hydrological responses, implying that infiltration-excess overland flow and snow water equivalent represent important water input to the hydrological system of the Kaidu watershed; (ii) saturate hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K) and soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO) have obvious effects on hydrological responses; this implies that the processes of percolation and evaporation would impact hydrological process in this watershed; (iii) the interactions of ESCO and SNO50COV as well as CN2 and SNO50COV have an obvious effect, implying that snow cover can impact the generation of runoff on land surface and the extraction of soil evaporative demand in lower soil layers. These findings can help enhance the hydrological model
LIU, B.; Liang, Y.
2015-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is a powerful statistical method in solving inverse problems that arise from a wide range of applications, such as nuclear physics, computational biology, financial engineering, among others. In Earth sciences applications of MCMC are primarily in the field of geophysics [1]. The purpose of this study is to introduce MCMC to geochemical inverse problems related to trace element fractionation during concurrent melting, melt transport and melt-rock reaction in the mantle. MCMC method has several advantages over linearized least squares methods in inverting trace element patterns in basalts and mantle rocks. First, MCMC can handle equations that have no explicit analytical solutions which are required by linearized least squares methods for gradient calculation. Second, MCMC converges to global minimum while linearized least squares methods may be stuck at a local minimum or converge slowly due to nonlinearity. Furthermore, MCMC can provide insight into uncertainties of model parameters with non-normal trade-off. We use MCMC to invert for extent of melting, amount of trapped melt, and extent of chemical disequilibrium between the melt and residual solid from REE data in abyssal peridotites from Central Indian Ridge and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. In the first step, we conduct forward calculation of REE evolution with melting models in a reasonable model space. We then build up a chain of melting models according to Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to represent the probability of specific model. We show that chemical disequilibrium is likely to play an important role in fractionating LREE in residual peridotites. In the future, MCMC will be applied to more realistic but also more complicated melting models in which partition coefficients, diffusion coefficients, as well as melting and melt suction rates vary as functions of temperature, pressure and mineral compositions. [1]. Sambridge & Mosegarrd [2002] Rev. Geophys.
Parallelizing Monte Carlo with PMC
Rathkopf, J.A.; Jones, T.R.; Nessett, D.M.; Stanberry, L.C.
1994-11-01
PMC (Parallel Monte Carlo) is a system of generic interface routines that allows easy porting of Monte Carlo packages of large-scale physics simulation codes to Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) computers. By loading various versions of PMC, simulation code developers can configure their codes to run in several modes: serial, Monte Carlo runs on the same processor as the rest of the code; parallel, Monte Carlo runs in parallel across many processors of the MPP with the rest of the code running on other MPP processor(s); distributed, Monte Carlo runs in parallel across many processors of the MPP with the rest of the code running on a different machine. This multi-mode approach allows maintenance of a single simulation code source regardless of the target machine. PMC handles passing of messages between nodes on the MPP, passing of messages between a different machine and the MPP, distributing work between nodes, and providing independent, reproducible sequences of random numbers. Several production codes have been parallelized under the PMC system. Excellent parallel efficiency in both the distributed and parallel modes results if sufficient workload is available per processor. Experiences with a Monte Carlo photonics demonstration code and a Monte Carlo neutronics package are described.
A mixture representation of π with applications in Markov chain Monte Carlo and perfect sampling
Hobert, James P.; Robert, Christian P.
2004-01-01
Let X={Xn:n=0,1,2,…} be an irreducible, positive recurrent Markov chain with invariant probability measure π. We show that if X satisfies a one-step minorization condition, then π can be represented as an infinite mixture. The distributions in the mixture are associated with the hitting times on an accessible atom introduced via the splitting construction of Athreya and Ney [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 245 (1978) 493–501] and Nummelin [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 43 (1978) 309–318]. When the small ...
Gravitational-wave signals from inspirals of binary compact objects (black holes and neutron stars) are primary targets of the ongoing searches by ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers (LIGO, Virgo and GEO-600). We present parameter-estimation simulations for inspirals of black-hole-neutron-star binaries using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. As a specific example of the power of these methods, we consider source localization in the sky and analyze the degeneracy in it when data from only two detectors are used. We focus on the effect that the black-hole spin has on the localization estimation. We also report on a comparative Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis with two different waveform families, at 1.5 and 3.5 post-Newtonian orders.
On the use of stochastic approximation Monte Carlo for Monte Carlo integration
Liang, Faming
2009-03-01
The stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm has recently been proposed as a dynamic optimization algorithm in the literature. In this paper, we show in theory that the samples generated by SAMC can be used for Monte Carlo integration via a dynamically weighted estimator by calling some results from the literature of nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Our numerical results indicate that SAMC can yield significant savings over conventional Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, for the problems for which the energy landscape is rugged. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.
2010-10-01
Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.
We present a single-particle Lennard–Jones (L-J) model for CO2 and N2. Simplified L-J models for other small polyatomic molecules can be obtained following the methodology described herein. The phase-coexistence diagrams of single-component systems computed using the proposed single-particle models for CO2 and N2 agree well with experimental data over a wide range of temperatures. These diagrams are computed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based on the Gibbs-NVT ensemble. This good agreement validates the proposed simplified models. That is, with properly selected parameters, the single-particle models have similar accuracy in predicting gas-phase properties as more complex, state-of-the-art molecular models. To further test these single-particle models, three binary mixtures of CH4, CO2 and N2 are studied using a Gibbs-NPT ensemble. These results are compared against experimental data over a wide range of pressures. The single-particle model has similar accuracy in the gas phase as traditional models although its deviation in the liquid phase is greater. Since the single-particle model reduces the particle number and avoids the time-consuming Ewald summation used to evaluate Coulomb interactions, the proposed model improves the computational efficiency significantly, particularly in the case of high liquid density where the acceptance rate of the particle-swap trial move increases. We compare, at constant temperature and pressure, the Gibbs-NPT and Gibbs-NVT ensembles to analyze their performance differences and results consistency. As theoretically predicted, the agreement between the simulations implies that Gibbs-NVT can be used to validate Gibbs-NPT predictions when experimental data is not available
Jadoon, K. Z.; Altaf, M. U.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.; Moghadas, D.
2014-12-01
In arid and semi-arid regions, soil salinity has a major impact on agro-ecosystems, agricultural productivity, environment and sustainability. High levels of soil salinity adversely affect plant growth and productivity, soil and water quality, and may eventually result in soil erosion and land degradation. Being essentially a hazard, it's important to monitor and map soil salinity at an early stage to effectively use soil resources and maintain soil salinity level below the salt tolerance of crops. In this respect, low frequency electromagnetic induction (EMI) systems can be used as a noninvasive method to map the distribution of soil salinity at the field scale and at a high spatial resolution. In this contribution, an EMI system (the CMD Mini-Explorer) is used to estimate soil salinity using a Bayesian approach implemented via a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for inversion of multi-configuration EMI measurements. In-situ and EMI measurements were conducted across a farm where Acacia trees are irrigated with brackish water using a drip irrigation system. The electromagnetic forward model is based on the full solution of Maxwell's equation, and the subsurface is considered as a three-layer problem. In total, five parameters (electrical conductivity of three layers and thickness of top two layers) were inverted and modeled electrical conductivities were converted into the universal standard of soil salinity measurement (i.e. using the method of electrical conductivity of a saturated soil paste extract). Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme successfully recovers soil salinity and reduces the uncertainties in the prior estimate. Analysis of the resulting posterior distribution of parameters indicates that electrical conductivity of the top two layers and the thickness of the first layer are well constrained by the EMI measurements. The proposed approach allows for quantitative mapping and monitoring of the spatial electrical conductivity
Li, Jun
2013-09-01
We present a single-particle Lennard-Jones (L-J) model for CO2 and N2. Simplified L-J models for other small polyatomic molecules can be obtained following the methodology described herein. The phase-coexistence diagrams of single-component systems computed using the proposed single-particle models for CO2 and N2 agree well with experimental data over a wide range of temperatures. These diagrams are computed using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based on the Gibbs-NVT ensemble. This good agreement validates the proposed simplified models. That is, with properly selected parameters, the single-particle models have similar accuracy in predicting gas-phase properties as more complex, state-of-the-art molecular models. To further test these single-particle models, three binary mixtures of CH4, CO2 and N2 are studied using a Gibbs-NPT ensemble. These results are compared against experimental data over a wide range of pressures. The single-particle model has similar accuracy in the gas phase as traditional models although its deviation in the liquid phase is greater. Since the single-particle model reduces the particle number and avoids the time-consuming Ewald summation used to evaluate Coulomb interactions, the proposed model improves the computational efficiency significantly, particularly in the case of high liquid density where the acceptance rate of the particle-swap trial move increases. We compare, at constant temperature and pressure, the Gibbs-NPT and Gibbs-NVT ensembles to analyze their performance differences and results consistency. As theoretically predicted, the agreement between the simulations implies that Gibbs-NVT can be used to validate Gibbs-NPT predictions when experimental data is not available. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Lin, Chin; Chu, Chi-Ming; Su, Sui-Lung
2016-01-01
Conventional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been proven to be a successful strategy for identifying genetic variants associated with complex human traits. However, there is still a large heritability gap between GWAS and transitional family studies. The “missing heritability” has been suggested to be due to lack of studies focused on epistasis, also called gene–gene interactions, because individual trials have often had insufficient sample size. Meta-analysis is a common method for increasing statistical power. However, sufficient detailed information is difficult to obtain. A previous study employed a meta-regression-based method to detect epistasis, but it faced the challenge of inconsistent estimates. Here, we describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based method, called “Epistasis Test in Meta-Analysis” (ETMA), which uses genotype summary data to obtain consistent estimates of epistasis effects in meta-analysis. We defined a series of conditions to generate simulation data and tested the power and type I error rates in ETMA, individual data analysis and conventional meta-regression-based method. ETMA not only successfully facilitated consistency of evidence but also yielded acceptable type I error and higher power than conventional meta-regression. We applied ETMA to three real meta-analysis data sets. We found significant gene–gene interactions in the renin–angiotensin system and the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon metabolism pathway, with strong supporting evidence. In addition, glutathione S-transferase (GST) mu 1 and theta 1 were confirmed to exert independent effects on cancer. We concluded that the application of ETMA to real meta-analysis data was successful. Finally, we developed an R package, etma, for the detection of epistasis in meta-analysis [etma is available via the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/etma/index.html]. PMID:27045371
Monaco, James Peter; Madabhushi, Anant
2011-07-01
The ability of classification systems to adjust their performance (sensitivity/specificity) is essential for tasks in which certain errors are more significant than others. For example, mislabeling cancerous lesions as benign is typically more detrimental than mislabeling benign lesions as cancerous. Unfortunately, methods for modifying the performance of Markov random field (MRF) based classifiers are noticeably absent from the literature, and thus most such systems restrict their performance to a single, static operating point (a paired sensitivity/specificity). To address this deficiency we present weighted maximum posterior marginals (WMPM) estimation, an extension of maximum posterior marginals (MPM) estimation. Whereas the MPM cost function penalizes each error equally, the WMPM cost function allows misclassifications associated with certain classes to be weighted more heavily than others. This creates a preference for specific classes, and consequently a means for adjusting classifier performance. Realizing WMPM estimation (like MPM estimation) requires estimates of the posterior marginal distributions. The most prevalent means for estimating these--proposed by Marroquin--utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Though Marroquin's method (M-MCMC) yields estimates that are sufficiently accurate for MPM estimation, they are inadequate for WMPM. To more accurately estimate the posterior marginals we present an equally simple, but more effective extension of the MCMC method (E-MCMC). Assuming an identical number of iterations, E-MCMC as compared to M-MCMC yields estimates with higher fidelity, thereby 1) allowing a far greater number and diversity of operating points and 2) improving overall classifier performance. To illustrate the utility of WMPM and compare the efficacies of M-MCMC and E-MCMC, we integrate them into our MRF-based classification system for detecting cancerous glands in (whole-mount or quarter) histological sections of the prostate
Monte Carlo simulation of block copolymer brushes
We studied a simplified model of a polymer brush formed by linear chains, which were restricted to a simple cubic lattice. The chain macromolecules consisted of a sequence of two kinds of segment, arranged in a specific sequence. The chains were grafted to an impenetrable surface, i.e. they were terminally attached to the surface at one end. The number of chains was varied from low to high grafting density. The model system was studied under different solvent quality, from good to poor solvent. The properties of this model system were studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The sampling algorithm was based on local changes of the chain's conformations
CosmoPMC: Cosmology Population Monte Carlo
Kilbinger, Martin; Cappe, Olivier; Cardoso, Jean-Francois; Fort, Gersende; Prunet, Simon; Robert, Christian P; Wraith, Darren
2011-01-01
We present the public release of the Bayesian sampling algorithm for cosmology, CosmoPMC (Cosmology Population Monte Carlo). CosmoPMC explores the parameter space of various cosmological probes, and also provides a robust estimate of the Bayesian evidence. CosmoPMC is based on an adaptive importance sampling method called Population Monte Carlo (PMC). Various cosmology likelihood modules are implemented, and new modules can be added easily. The importance-sampling algorithm is written in C, and fully parallelised using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). Due to very little overhead, the wall-clock time required for sampling scales approximately with the number of CPUs. The CosmoPMC package contains post-processing and plotting programs, and in addition a Monte-Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) algorithm. The sampling engine is implemented in the library pmclib, and can be used independently. The software is available for download at http://www.cosmopmc.info.
Tani, Yuji
2016-01-01
Background Consistent with the “attention, interest, desire, memory, action” (AIDMA) model of consumer behavior, patients collect information about available medical institutions using the Internet to select information for their particular needs. Studies of consumer behavior may be found in areas other than medical institution websites. Such research uses Web access logs for visitor search behavior. At this time, research applying the patient searching behavior model to medical institution website visitors is lacking. Objective We have developed a hospital website search behavior model using a Bayesian approach to clarify the behavior of medical institution website visitors and determine the probability of their visits, classified by search keyword. Methods We used the website data access log of a clinic of internal medicine and gastroenterology in the Sapporo suburbs, collecting data from January 1 through June 31, 2011. The contents of the 6 website pages included the following: home, news, content introduction for medical examinations, mammography screening, holiday person-on-duty information, and other. The search keywords we identified as best expressing website visitor needs were listed as the top 4 headings from the access log: clinic name, clinic name + regional name, clinic name + medical examination, and mammography screening. Using the search keywords as the explaining variable, we built a binomial probit model that allows inspection of the contents of each purpose variable. Using this model, we determined a beta value and generated a posterior distribution. We performed the simulation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with a noninformation prior distribution for this model and determined the visit probability classified by keyword for each category. Results In the case of the keyword “clinic name,” the visit probability to the website, repeated visit to the website, and contents page for medical examination was positive. In the case of the
Generically, the classical evolution of the inflaton has a brief fast-roll stage that precedes the slow-roll regime. The fast-roll stage leads to a purely attractive potential in the wave equations of curvature and tensor perturbations (while the potential is purely repulsive in the slow-roll stage). This attractive potential leads to a depression of the CMB quadrupole moment for the curvature and B-mode angular power spectra. A single new parameter emerges in this way in the early universe model: the comoving wave number k1 characteristic scale of this attractive potential. This mode k1 happens to exit the horizon precisely at the transition from the fast-roll to the slow-roll stage. The fast-roll stage dynamically modifies the initial power spectrum by a transfer function D(k). We compute D(k) by solving the inflaton evolution equations. D(k) effectively suppresses the primordial power for k1 and possesses the scaling property D(k)=Ψ(k/k1) where Ψ(x) is a universal function. We perform a Monte Carlo Markov chain analysis of the WMAP and SDSS data including the fast-roll stage and find the value k1=0.266 Gpc-1. The quadrupole mode kQ=0.242 Gpc-1 exits the horizon earlier than k1, about one-tenth of an e-fold before the end of fast roll. We compare the fast-roll fit with a fit without fast roll but including a sharp lower cutoff on the primordial power. Fast roll provides a slightly better fit than a sharp cutoff for the temperature-temperature, temperature-E modes, and E modes-E modes. Moreover, our fits provide nonzero lower bounds for r, while the values of the other cosmological parameters are essentially those of the pure ΛCDM model. We display the real space two point CTT(θ) correlator. The fact that kQ exits the horizon before the slow-roll stage implies an upper bound in the total number of e-folds Ntot during inflation. Combining this with estimates during the radiation dominated era we obtain Ntot∼66, with the bounds 62tot<82. We repeated the same
Proton Upset Monte Carlo Simulation
O'Neill, Patrick M.; Kouba, Coy K.; Foster, Charles C.
2009-01-01
The Proton Upset Monte Carlo Simulation (PROPSET) program calculates the frequency of on-orbit upsets in computer chips (for given orbits such as Low Earth Orbit, Lunar Orbit, and the like) from proton bombardment based on the results of heavy ion testing alone. The software simulates the bombardment of modern microelectronic components (computer chips) with high-energy (.200 MeV) protons. The nuclear interaction of the proton with the silicon of the chip is modeled and nuclear fragments from this interaction are tracked using Monte Carlo techniques to produce statistically accurate predictions.
Monte Carlo Particle Lists: MCPL
Kittelmann, Thomas; Knudsen, Erik B; Willendrup, Peter; Cai, Xiao Xiao; Kanaki, Kalliopi
2016-01-01
A binary format with lists of particle state information, for interchanging particles between various Monte Carlo simulation applications, is presented. Portable C code for file manipulation is made available to the scientific community, along with converters and plugins for several popular simulation packages.
Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration
Geweke, John F.
1995-01-01
This is a survey of simulation methods in economics, with a specific focus on integration problems. It describes acceptance methods, importance sampling procedures, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for simulation from univariate and multivariate distributions and their application to the approximation of integrals. The exposition gives emphasis to combinations of different approaches and assessment of the accuracy of numerical approximations to integrals and expectations. The survey illus...
Jalayer, Fatemeh; Ebrahimian, Hossein
2014-05-01
Introduction The first few days elapsed after the occurrence of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence are quite critical for emergency decision-making purposes. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are used frequently for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term (Ogata, 1988). The ETAS models are epidemic stochastic point process models in which every earthquake is a potential triggering event for subsequent earthquakes. The ETAS model parameters are usually calibrated a priori and based on a set of events that do not belong to the on-going seismic sequence (Marzocchi and Lombardi 2009). However, adaptive model parameter estimation, based on the events in the on-going sequence, may have several advantages such as, tuning the model to the specific sequence characteristics, and capturing possible variations in time of the model parameters. Simulation-based methods can be employed in order to provide a robust estimate for the spatio-temporal seismicity forecasts in a prescribed forecasting time interval (i.e., a day) within a post-main shock environment. This robust estimate takes into account the uncertainty in the model parameters expressed as the posterior joint probability distribution for the model parameters conditioned on the events that have already occurred (i.e., before the beginning of the forecasting interval) in the on-going seismic sequence. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme is used herein in order to sample directly from the posterior probability distribution for ETAS model parameters. Moreover, the sequence of events that is going to occur during the forecasting interval (and hence affecting the seismicity in an epidemic type model like ETAS) is also generated through a stochastic procedure. The procedure leads to two spatio-temporal outcomes: (1) the probability distribution for the forecasted number of events, and (2) the uncertainty in estimating the
Measuring the reliability of MCMC inference with bidirectional Monte Carlo
Grosse, Roger B.; Ancha, Siddharth; Roy, Daniel M.
2016-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference methods, which can hide details and obscure inference failures. In this work, we extend the recently introduced bidirectional Monte Carlo technique to evaluate MCMC-based posterior inference algorithms. By running annealed importance sampling (AIS) chains both ...
Olivares, G.; Teferle, F. N.
2013-12-01
Geodetic time series provide information which helps to constrain theoretical models of geophysical processes. It is well established that such time series, for example from GPS, superconducting gravity or mean sea level (MSL), contain time-correlated noise which is usually assumed to be a combination of a long-term stochastic process (characterized by a power-law spectrum) and random noise. Therefore, when fitting a model to geodetic time series it is essential to also estimate the stochastic parameters beside the deterministic ones. Often the stochastic parameters include the power amplitudes of both time-correlated and random noise, as well as, the spectral index of the power-law process. To date, the most widely used method for obtaining these parameter estimates is based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We present an integration method, the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method, which, by using Markov chains, provides a sample of the posteriori distribution of all parameters and, thereby, using Monte Carlo integration, all parameters and their uncertainties are estimated simultaneously. This algorithm automatically optimizes the Markov chain step size and estimates the convergence state by spectral analysis of the chain. We assess the MCMC method through comparison with MLE, using the recently released GPS position time series from JPL and apply it also to the MSL time series from the Revised Local Reference data base of the PSMSL. Although the parameter estimates for both methods are fairly equivalent, they suggest that the MCMC method has some advantages over MLE, for example, without further computations it provides the spectral index uncertainty, is computationally stable and detects multimodality.
Introduction to Monte-Carlo method
We recall first some well known facts about random variables and sampling. Then we define the Monte-Carlo method in the case where one wants to compute a given integral. Afterwards, we ship to discrete Markov chains for which we define random walks, and apply to finite difference approximations of diffusion equations. Finally we consider Markov chains with continuous state (but discrete time), transition probabilities and random walks, which are the main piece of this work. The applications are: diffusion and advection equations, and the linear transport equation with scattering
Shell model Monte Carlo methods
We review quantum Monte Carlo methods for dealing with large shell model problems. These methods reduce the imaginary-time many-body evolution operator to a coherent superposition of one-body evolutions in fluctuating one-body fields; resultant path integral is evaluated stochastically. We first discuss the motivation, formalism, and implementation of such Shell Model Monte Carlo methods. There then follows a sampler of results and insights obtained from a number of applications. These include the ground state and thermal properties of pf-shell nuclei, thermal behavior of γ-soft nuclei, and calculation of double beta-decay matrix elements. Finally, prospects for further progress in such calculations are discussed. 87 refs
Kinematics of multigrid Monte Carlo
We study the kinematics of multigrid Monte Carlo algorithms by means of acceptance rates for nonlocal Metropolis update proposals. An approximation formula for acceptance rates is derived. We present a comparison of different coarse-to-fine interpolation schemes in free field theory, where the formula is exact. The predictions of the approximation formula for several interacting models are well confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. The following rule is found: For a critical model with fundametal Hamiltonian Η(φ), absence of critical slowing down can only be expected if the expansion of (Η(φ+ψ)) in terms of the shift ψ contains no relevant (mass) term. We also introduce a multigrid update procedure for nonabelian lattice gauge theory and study the acceptance rates for gauge group SU(2) in four dimensions. (orig.)
Asynchronous Anytime Sequential Monte Carlo
Paige, Brooks; Wood, Frank; Doucet, Arnaud; Teh, Yee Whye
2014-01-01
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm in the sense that it can be run forever to emit an unbounded number of particles while keeping within a fixed memory budget. We prove that the particle cascade is an unbiased mar...
Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo
Gu, Shixiang; Ghahramani, Zoubin; Turner, Richard E
2015-01-01
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal can lead to arbitrarily inaccurate estimates of the target distribution. This paper presents a new method for automatically adapting the proposal using an approximation of the Ku...
Parallel Monte Carlo reactor neutronics
The issues affecting implementation of parallel algorithms for large-scale engineering Monte Carlo neutron transport simulations are discussed. For nuclear reactor calculations, these include load balancing, recoding effort, reproducibility, domain decomposition techniques, I/O minimization, and strategies for different parallel architectures. Two codes were parallelized and tested for performance. The architectures employed include SIMD, MIMD-distributed memory, and workstation network with uneven interactive load. Speedups linear with the number of nodes were achieved
Adaptive Multilevel Monte Carlo Simulation
Hoel, H
2011-08-23
This work generalizes a multilevel forward Euler Monte Carlo method introduced in Michael B. Giles. (Michael Giles. Oper. Res. 56(3):607–617, 2008.) for the approximation of expected values depending on the solution to an Itô stochastic differential equation. The work (Michael Giles. Oper. Res. 56(3):607– 617, 2008.) proposed and analyzed a forward Euler multilevelMonte Carlo method based on a hierarchy of uniform time discretizations and control variates to reduce the computational effort required by a standard, single level, Forward Euler Monte Carlo method. This work introduces an adaptive hierarchy of non uniform time discretizations, generated by an adaptive algorithmintroduced in (AnnaDzougoutov et al. Raùl Tempone. Adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms for stopped diffusion. In Multiscale methods in science and engineering, volume 44 of Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. Eng., pages 59–88. Springer, Berlin, 2005; Kyoung-Sook Moon et al. Stoch. Anal. Appl. 23(3):511–558, 2005; Kyoung-Sook Moon et al. An adaptive algorithm for ordinary, stochastic and partial differential equations. In Recent advances in adaptive computation, volume 383 of Contemp. Math., pages 325–343. Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 2005.). This form of the adaptive algorithm generates stochastic, path dependent, time steps and is based on a posteriori error expansions first developed in (Anders Szepessy et al. Comm. Pure Appl. Math. 54(10):1169– 1214, 2001). Our numerical results for a stopped diffusion problem, exhibit savings in the computational cost to achieve an accuracy of ϑ(TOL),from(TOL−3), from using a single level version of the adaptive algorithm to ϑ(((TOL−1)log(TOL))2).
Monomial Gamma Monte Carlo Sampling
Zhang, Yizhe; Wang, Xiangyu; Chen, Changyou; Fan, Kai; Carin, Lawrence
2016-01-01
We unify slice sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling by demonstrating their connection under the canonical transformation from Hamiltonian mechanics. This insight enables us to extend HMC and slice sampling to a broader family of samplers, called monomial Gamma samplers (MGS). We analyze theoretically the mixing performance of such samplers by proving that the MGS draws samples from a target distribution with zero-autocorrelation, in the limit of a single parameter. This propert...
Extending canonical Monte Carlo methods
Velazquez, L.; Curilef, S.
2010-02-01
In this paper, we discuss the implications of a recently obtained equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation for the extension of the available Monte Carlo methods on the basis of the consideration of the Gibbs canonical ensemble to account for the existence of an anomalous regime with negative heat capacities C < 0. The resulting framework appears to be a suitable generalization of the methodology associated with the so-called dynamical ensemble, which is applied to the extension of two well-known Monte Carlo methods: the Metropolis importance sampling and the Swendsen-Wang cluster algorithm. These Monte Carlo algorithms are employed to study the anomalous thermodynamic behavior of the Potts models with many spin states q defined on a d-dimensional hypercubic lattice with periodic boundary conditions, which successfully reduce the exponential divergence of the decorrelation time τ with increase of the system size N to a weak power-law divergence \\tau \\propto N^{\\alpha } with α≈0.2 for the particular case of the 2D ten-state Potts model.
We have shown that the transport equation can be solved with particles, like the Monte-Carlo method, but without random numbers. In the Monte-Carlo method, particles are created from the source, and are followed from collision to collision until either they are absorbed or they leave the spatial domain. In our method, particles are created from the original source, with a variable weight taking into account both collision and absorption. These particles are followed until they leave the spatial domain, and we use them to determine a first collision source. Another set of particles is then created from this first collision source, and tracked to determine a second collision source, and so on. This process introduces an approximation which does not exist in the Monte-Carlo method. However, we have analyzed the effect of this approximation, and shown that it can be limited. Our method is deterministic, gives reproducible results. Furthermore, when extra accuracy is needed in some region, it is easier to get more particles to go there. It has the same kind of applications: rather problems where streaming is dominant than collision dominated problems
Monte Carlo study of real time dynamics
Alexandru, Andrei; Bedaque, Paulo F; Vartak, Sohan; Warrington, Neill C
2016-01-01
Monte Carlo studies involving real time dynamics are severely restricted by the sign problem that emerges from highly oscillatory phase of the path integral. In this letter, we present a new method to compute real time quantities on the lattice using the Schwinger-Keldysh formalism via Monte Carlo simulations. The key idea is to deform the path integration domain to a complex manifold where the phase oscillations are mild and the sign problem is manageable. We use the previously introduced "contraction algorithm" to create a Markov chain on this alternative manifold. We substantiate our approach by analyzing the quantum mechanical anharmonic oscillator. Our results are in agreement with the exact ones obtained by diagonalization of the Hamiltonian. The method we introduce is generic and in principle applicable to quantum field theory albeit very slow. We discuss some possible improvements that should speed up the algorithm.
No-compromise reptation quantum Monte Carlo
Since its publication, the reptation quantum Monte Carlo algorithm of Baroni and Moroni (1999 Phys. Rev. Lett. 82 4745) has been applied to several important problems in physics, but its mathematical foundations are not well understood. We show that their algorithm is not of typical Metropolis-Hastings type, and we specify conditions required for the generated Markov chain to be stationary and to converge to the intended distribution. The time-step bias may add up, and in many applications it is only the middle of a reptile that is the most important. Therefore, we propose an alternative, 'no-compromise reptation quantum Monte Carlo' to stabilize the middle of the reptile. (fast track communication)
Scholer, Marie; Irving, James; Zibar, Majken Caroline Looms;
2012-01-01
-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion approach with different priors. The ground-penetrating radar (GPR) geophysical method has the potential to provide valuable information on the hydraulic properties of the vadose zone because of its strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the......We examined to what extent time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in Denmark, could help to quantify vadose zone hydraulic properties and their corresponding uncertainties using a Bayesian Markov......-state infiltration conditions, which represent only a small fraction of practically relevant scenarios. We explored in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically examining to what extent time-lapse crosshole GPR traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in...
Kevin McNally
2012-01-01
Full Text Available There are numerous biomonitoring programs, both recent and ongoing, to evaluate environmental exposure of humans to chemicals. Due to the lack of exposure and kinetic data, the correlation of biomarker levels with exposure concentrations leads to difficulty in utilizing biomonitoring data for biological guidance values. Exposure reconstruction or reverse dosimetry is the retrospective interpretation of external exposure consistent with biomonitoring data. We investigated the integration of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling, global sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a population estimate of inhalation exposure to m-xylene. We used exhaled breath and venous blood m-xylene and urinary 3-methylhippuric acid measurements from a controlled human volunteer study in order to evaluate the ability of our computational framework to predict known inhalation exposures. We also investigated the importance of model structure and dimensionality with respect to its ability to reconstruct exposure.
Shishmarev, Dmitry; Chapman, Bogdan E; Naumann, Christoph; Mamone, Salvatore; Kuchel, Philip W
2015-01-01
The (1)H NMR signal of the methyl group of sodium acetate is shown to be a triplet in the anisotropic environment of stretched gelatin gel. The multiplet structure of the signal is due to the intra-methyl residual dipolar couplings. The relaxation properties of the spin system were probed by recording steady-state irradiation envelopes ('z-spectra'). A quantum-mechanical model based on irreducible spherical tensors formed by the three magnetically equivalent spins of the methyl group was used to simulate and fit experimental z-spectra. The multiple parameter values of the relaxation model were estimated by using a Bayesian-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. PMID:25486634
Strunk, Astrid; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou; Larsen, Nicolaj Krog;
investigate the landscape history in eastern and western Greenland by applying a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach to the existing 10Be-26Al data from these regions. The new MCMC approach allows us to constrain the most likely landscape history based on comparisons between simulated...... the landscape history in previously glaciated terrains may be difficult, however, due to unknown erosion rates and the presence of inherited nuclides. The potential use of cosmogenic nuclides in landscapes with a complex history of exposure and erosion is therefore often quite limited. In this study, we...... and measured cosmogenic nuclide concentrations. It is a fundamental assumption of the model approach that the exposure history at the site/location can be divided into two distinct regimes: i) interglacial periods characterized by zero shielding due to overlying ice and a uniform interglacial erosion rate...
Forward physics Monte Carlo (FPMC)
Boonekamp, M.; Juránek, Vojtěch; Kepka, Oldřich; Royon, C.
Hamburg : Verlag Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron, 2009 - (Jung, H.; De Roeck, A.), s. 758-762 ISBN N. [HERA and the LHC workshop series on the implications of HERA for LHC physics. Geneve (CH), 26.05.2008-30.05.2008] R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC527; GA MŠk LA08032 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100502 Keywords : forward physics * diffraction * two-photon * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BF - Elementary Particles and High Energy Physics http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0903/0903.3861v2.pdf
MontePython: Implementing Quantum Monte Carlo using Python
J.K. Nilsen
2006-01-01
We present a cross-language C++/Python program for simulations of quantum mechanical systems with the use of Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. We describe a system for which to apply QMC, the algorithms of variational Monte Carlo and diffusion Monte Carlo and we describe how to implement theses methods in pure C++ and C++/Python. Furthermore we check the efficiency of the implementations in serial and parallel cases to show that the overhead using Python can be negligible.
Monte Carlo techniques in radiation therapy
Verhaegen, Frank
2013-01-01
Modern cancer treatment relies on Monte Carlo simulations to help radiotherapists and clinical physicists better understand and compute radiation dose from imaging devices as well as exploit four-dimensional imaging data. With Monte Carlo-based treatment planning tools now available from commercial vendors, a complete transition to Monte Carlo-based dose calculation methods in radiotherapy could likely take place in the next decade. Monte Carlo Techniques in Radiation Therapy explores the use of Monte Carlo methods for modeling various features of internal and external radiation sources, including light ion beams. The book-the first of its kind-addresses applications of the Monte Carlo particle transport simulation technique in radiation therapy, mainly focusing on external beam radiotherapy and brachytherapy. It presents the mathematical and technical aspects of the methods in particle transport simulations. The book also discusses the modeling of medical linacs and other irradiation devices; issues specific...
Monte Carlo primer for health physicists
The basic ideas and principles of Monte Carlo calculations are presented in the form of a primer for health physicists. A simple integral with a known answer is evaluated by two different Monte Carlo approaches. Random number, which underlie Monte Carlo work, are discussed, and a sample table of random numbers generated by a hand calculator is presented. Monte Carlo calculations of dose and linear energy transfer (LET) from 100-keV neutrons incident on a tissue slab are discussed. The random-number table is used in a hand calculation of the initial sequence of events for a 100-keV neutron entering the slab. Some pitfalls in Monte Carlo work are described. While this primer addresses mainly the bare bones of Monte Carlo, a final section briefly describes some of the more sophisticated techniques used in practice to reduce variance and computing time
Data-driven Sequential Monte Carlo in Probabilistic Programming
Perov, Yura N.; Le, Tuan Anh; Wood, Frank
2015-01-01
Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for training a discriminative model, namely a neural network, in order to approximate the optimal proposal by using posterior estimates from previous runs of inference. We show an example that incorporates a data-driven proposal for use in a non-parametric model in t...
Mean field simulation for Monte Carlo integration
Del Moral, Pierre
2013-01-01
In the last three decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of interacting particle methods as a powerful tool in real-world applications of Monte Carlo simulation in computational physics, population biology, computer sciences, and statistical machine learning. Ideally suited to parallel and distributed computation, these advanced particle algorithms include nonlinear interacting jump diffusions; quantum, diffusion, and resampled Monte Carlo methods; Feynman-Kac particle models; genetic and evolutionary algorithms; sequential Monte Carlo methods; adaptive and interacting Marko
MONTE-4 for Monte Carlo simulations with high performance
The Monte Carlo machine MONTE-4, has been developed based on the architecture of existing supercomputer with a design philosophy to realize high performance in vector-parallel processing of Monte Carlo codes for particle transport problems. The effective performance of this Monte Carlo machine is presented through practical applications of multi-group criticality safety code KENO-IV and continuous-energy neutron/photon transport code MCNP. Ten times speedup has been obtained on MONTE-4 compared with the execution time in the scalar processing. (K.A.)
Multidimensional stochastic approximation Monte Carlo.
Zablotskiy, Sergey V; Ivanov, Victor A; Paul, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
Stochastic Approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has been established as a mathematically founded powerful flat-histogram Monte Carlo method, used to determine the density of states, g(E), of a model system. We show here how it can be generalized for the determination of multidimensional probability distributions (or equivalently densities of states) of macroscopic or mesoscopic variables defined on the space of microstates of a statistical mechanical system. This establishes this method as a systematic way for coarse graining a model system, or, in other words, for performing a renormalization group step on a model. We discuss the formulation of the Kadanoff block spin transformation and the coarse-graining procedure for polymer models in this language. We also apply it to a standard case in the literature of two-dimensional densities of states, where two competing energetic effects are present g(E_{1},E_{2}). We show when and why care has to be exercised when obtaining the microcanonical density of states g(E_{1}+E_{2}) from g(E_{1},E_{2}). PMID:27415383
Single scatter electron Monte Carlo
Svatos, M.M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)|Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States)
1997-03-01
A single scatter electron Monte Carlo code (SSMC), CREEP, has been written which bridges the gap between existing transport methods and modeling real physical processes. CREEP simulates ionization, elastic and bremsstrahlung events individually. Excitation events are treated with an excitation-only stopping power. The detailed nature of these simulations allows for calculation of backscatter and transmission coefficients, backscattered energy spectra, stopping powers, energy deposits, depth dose, and a variety of other associated quantities. Although computationally intense, the code relies on relatively few mathematical assumptions, unlike other charged particle Monte Carlo methods such as the commonly-used condensed history method. CREEP relies on sampling the Lawrence Livermore Evaluated Electron Data Library (EEDL) which has data for all elements with an atomic number between 1 and 100, over an energy range from approximately several eV (or the binding energy of the material) to 100 GeV. Compounds and mixtures may also be used by combining the appropriate element data via Bragg additivity.
1-D EQUILIBRIUM DISCRETE DIFFUSION MONTE CARLO
T. EVANS; ET AL
2000-08-01
We present a new hybrid Monte Carlo method for 1-D equilibrium diffusion problems in which the radiation field coexists with matter in local thermodynamic equilibrium. This method, the Equilibrium Discrete Diffusion Monte Carlo (EqDDMC) method, combines Monte Carlo particles with spatially discrete diffusion solutions. We verify the EqDDMC method with computational results from three slab problems. The EqDDMC method represents an incremental step toward applying this hybrid methodology to non-equilibrium diffusion, where it could be simultaneously coupled to Monte Carlo transport.
Monte Carlo Application ToolKit (MCATK)
Highlights: • Component-based Monte Carlo radiation transport parallel software library. • Designed to build specialized software applications. • Provides new functionality for existing general purpose Monte Carlo transport codes. • Time-independent and time-dependent algorithms with population control. • Algorithm verification and validation results are provided. - Abstract: The Monte Carlo Application ToolKit (MCATK) is a component-based software library designed to build specialized applications and to provide new functionality for existing general purpose Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. We will describe MCATK and its capabilities along with presenting some verification and validations results
Gravitational-wave signals from inspirals of binary compact objects (black holes and neutron stars) are primary targets of the ongoing searches by ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers (LIGO, Virgo and GEO-600). We present parameter estimation results from our Markov-chain Monte Carlo code SPINspiral on signals from binaries with precessing spins. Two data sets are created by injecting simulated GW signals either into synthetic Gaussian noise or into LIGO detector data. We compute the 15-dimensional probability-density functions (PDFs) for both data sets, as well as for a data set containing LIGO data with a known, loud artefact ('glitch'). We show that the analysis of the signal in detector noise yields accuracies similar to those obtained using simulated Gaussian noise. We also find that while the Markov chains from the glitch do not converge, the PDFs would look consistent with a GW signal present in the data. While our parameter estimation results are encouraging, further investigations into how to differentiate an actual GW signal from noise are necessary.
Farr, Benjamin; Kalogera, Vicky; Luijten, Erik
2014-07-01
We introduce a new Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for the efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our approach minimizes the use of parallel tempering, only applying it for a short time to build a proposal distribution that is based upon estimation of the kernel density and tuned to the target posterior. This proposal makes subsequent use of parallel tempering unnecessary, allowing all chains to be cooled to sample the target distribution. Gains in efficiency are found to increase with increasing posterior complexity, ranging from tens of percent in the simplest cases to over a factor of 10 for the more complex cases. Our approach is particularly useful in the context of parameter estimation of gravitational-wave signals measured by ground-based detectors, which is currently done through Bayesian inference with MCMC, one of the leading sampling methods. Posteriors for these signals are typically multimodal with strong nonlinear correlations, making sampling difficult. As we enter the advanced-detector era, improved sensitivities and wider bandwidths will drastically increase the computational cost of analyses, demanding more efficient search algorithms to meet these challenges.
The Monte Carlo code MONK is a general program written to provide a high degree of flexibility to the user. MONK is distinguished by its detailed representation of nuclear data in point form i.e., the cross-section is tabulated at specific energies instead of the more usual group representation. The nuclear data are unadjusted in the point form but recently the code has been modified to accept adjusted group data as used in fast and thermal reactor applications. The various geometrical handling capabilities and importance sampling techniques are described. In addition to the nuclear data aspects, the following features are also described; geometrical handling routines, tracking cycles, neutron source and output facilities. 12 references. (U.S.)
Monte Carlo lattice program KIM
The Monte Carlo program KIM solves the steady-state linear neutron transport equation for a fixed-source problem or, by successive fixed-source runs, for the eigenvalue problem, in a two-dimensional thermal reactor lattice. Fluxes and reaction rates are the main quantities computed by the program, from which power distribution and few-group averaged cross sections are derived. The simulation ranges from 10 MeV to zero and includes anisotropic and inelastic scattering in the fast energy region, the epithermal Doppler broadening of the resonances of some nuclides, and the thermalization phenomenon by taking into account the thermal velocity distribution of some molecules. Besides the well known combinatorial geometry, the program allows complex configurations to be represented by a discrete set of points, an approach greatly improving calculation speed
Monte Carlo application tool-kit (MCATK)
The Monte Carlo Application tool-kit (MCATK) is a C++ component-based software library designed to build specialized applications and to provide new functionality for existing general purpose Monte Carlo radiation transport codes such as MCNP. We will describe MCATK and its capabilities along with presenting some verification and validations results. (authors)
Suppression of the initial transient in Monte Carlo criticality simulations
Criticality Monte Carlo calculations aim at estimating the effective multiplication factor (k-effective) for a fissile system through iterations simulating neutrons propagation (making a Markov chain). Arbitrary initialization of the neutron population can deeply bias the k-effective estimation, defined as the mean of the k-effective computed at each iteration. A simplified model of this cycle k-effective sequence is built, based on characteristics of industrial criticality Monte Carlo calculations. Statistical tests, inspired by Brownian bridge properties, are designed to discriminate stationarity of the cycle k-effective sequence. The initial detected transient is, then, suppressed in order to improve the estimation of the system k-effective. The different versions of this methodology are detailed and compared, firstly on a plan of numerical tests fitted on criticality Monte Carlo calculations, and, secondly on real criticality calculations. Eventually, the best methodologies observed in these tests are selected and allow to improve industrial Monte Carlo criticality calculations. (author)
Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo
Cheon, Sooyoung
2009-11-01
Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Monte Carlo methods for the self-avoiding walk
Janse van Rensburg, E J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 (Canada)], E-mail: rensburg@yorku.ca
2009-08-14
The numerical simulation of self-avoiding walks remains a significant component in the study of random objects in lattices. In this review, I give a comprehensive overview of the current state of Monte Carlo simulations of models of self-avoiding walks. The self-avoiding walk model is revisited, and the motivations for Monte Carlo simulations of this model are discussed. Efficient sampling of self-avoiding walks remains an elusive objective, but significant progress has been made over the last three decades. The model still poses challenging numerical questions however, and I review specific Monte Carlo methods for improved sampling including general Monte Carlo techniques such as Metropolis sampling, umbrella sampling and multiple Markov Chain sampling. In addition, specific static and dynamic algorithms for walks are presented, and I give an overview of recent innovations in this field, including algorithms such as flatPERM, flatGARM and flatGAS. (topical review)
Monte Carlo methods for the self-avoiding walk
The numerical simulation of self-avoiding walks remains a significant component in the study of random objects in lattices. In this review, I give a comprehensive overview of the current state of Monte Carlo simulations of models of self-avoiding walks. The self-avoiding walk model is revisited, and the motivations for Monte Carlo simulations of this model are discussed. Efficient sampling of self-avoiding walks remains an elusive objective, but significant progress has been made over the last three decades. The model still poses challenging numerical questions however, and I review specific Monte Carlo methods for improved sampling including general Monte Carlo techniques such as Metropolis sampling, umbrella sampling and multiple Markov Chain sampling. In addition, specific static and dynamic algorithms for walks are presented, and I give an overview of recent innovations in this field, including algorithms such as flatPERM, flatGARM and flatGAS. (topical review)
Common misconceptions in Monte Carlo particle transport
Booth, Thomas E., E-mail: teb@lanl.gov [LANL, XCP-7, MS F663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)
2012-07-15
Monte Carlo particle transport is often introduced primarily as a method to solve linear integral equations such as the Boltzmann transport equation. This paper discusses some common misconceptions about Monte Carlo methods that are often associated with an equation-based focus. Many of the misconceptions apply directly to standard Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP and some are worth noting so that one does not unnecessarily restrict future methods. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Adjoint variety and use from a Monte Carlo perspective. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Misconceptions and preconceived notions about statistical weight. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Reasons that an adjoint based weight window sometimes works well or does not. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pulse height/probability of initiation tallies and 'the' transport equation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Highlights unnecessary preconceived notions about Monte Carlo transport.
Lattice Monte Carlo simulations of polymer melts
Hsu, Hsiao-Ping
2014-12-01
We use Monte Carlo simulations to study polymer melts consisting of fully flexible and moderately stiff chains in the bond fluctuation model at a volume fraction 0.5. In order to reduce the local density fluctuations, we test a pre-packing process for the preparation of the initial configurations of the polymer melts, before the excluded volume interaction is switched on completely. This process leads to a significantly faster decrease of the number of overlapping monomers on the lattice. This is useful for simulating very large systems, where the statistical properties of the model with a marginally incomplete elimination of excluded volume violations are the same as those of the model with strictly excluded volume. We find that the internal mean square end-to-end distance for moderately stiff chains in a melt can be very well described by a freely rotating chain model with a precise estimate of the bond-bond orientational correlation between two successive bond vectors in equilibrium. The plot of the probability distributions of the reduced end-to-end distance of chains of different stiffness also shows that the data collapse is excellent and described very well by the Gaussian distribution for ideal chains. However, while our results confirm the systematic deviations between Gaussian statistics for the chain structure factor Sc(q) [minimum in the Kratky-plot] found by Wittmer et al. [EPL 77, 56003 (2007)] for fully flexible chains in a melt, we show that for the available chain length these deviations are no longer visible, when the chain stiffness is included. The mean square bond length and the compressibility estimated from collective structure factors depend slightly on the stiffness of the chains.
Panday, Prajjwal K.; Williams, Christopher A.; Frey, Karen E.; Brown, Molly E.
2013-01-01
Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree
Full text: Understanding the basic building principles of biological materials from a fundamental point of view is a necessary prerequisite for possible transfer of these principles to technology. The byssal thread is an especially fascinating material showing high toughness, stiffness and extensibility. The byssal thread is secreted by marine mussels to adhere to rocky substrates. Being covered with a hard coating providing wear resistance, it shows an extensibility of more than 100 % with the ability of self-healing. Experimental studies on this system suggest that the high extensibility is due to so called 'sacrificial bonds' (SBs). Sacrificial Bonds are weaker than the covalent bonds holding the structure together and they can thermally induced open and close reversibly. The SBs break before the covalent bond rupture, providing hidden length and allowing for efficient energy dissipation. By this effect the toughness of the structure is significantly enhanced. These findings motivate the following simple model. The basic unit is a linear, covalently bonded polymer chain. Some of the monomers (so called sticky sites) can additionally form sacrificial bonds. Starting from a collapsed chain cyclic loading experiments were mimicked by determination of load-displacement curves by calculation of the mean force exerted by the chain for several end-to-end distances. The effect of the density and of the arrangement (ordered, random) of sticky sites on the mechanical behavior of the chain was investigated. For sufficiently high sticky site densities a pronounced hysteresis between stretching and relaxing of the chain could be observed. (author)
Information Geometry and Sequential Monte Carlo
Sim, Aaron; Stumpf, Michael P H
2012-01-01
This paper explores the application of methods from information geometry to the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler. In particular the Riemannian manifold Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (mMALA) is adapted for the transition kernels in SMC. Similar to its function in Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the mMALA is a fully adaptable kernel which allows for efficient sampling of high-dimensional and highly correlated parameter spaces. We set up the theoretical framework for its use in SMC with a focus on the application to the problem of sequential Bayesian inference for dynamical systems as modelled by sets of ordinary differential equations. In addition, we argue that defining the sequence of distributions on geodesics optimises the effective sample sizes in the SMC run. We illustrate the application of the methodology by inferring the parameters of simulated Lotka-Volterra and Fitzhugh-Nagumo models. In particular we demonstrate that compared to employing a standard adaptive random walk kernel, the SM...
Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system's potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide
The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) defines new demands on data analysis efforts in its all-sky gravitational wave survey, recording simultaneously thousands of galactic compact object binary foreground sources and tens to hundreds of background sources like binary black hole mergers and extreme-mass ratio inspirals. We approach this problem with an adaptive and fully automatic Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, able to sample from the joint posterior density function (as established by Bayes theorem) for a given mixture of signals ''out of the box'', handling the total number of signals as an additional unknown parameter beside the unknown parameters of each individual source and the noise floor. We show in examples from the LISA Mock Data Challenge implementing the full response of LISA in its TDI description that this sampler is able to extract monochromatic Double White Dwarf signals out of colored instrumental noise and additional foreground and background noise successfully in a global fitting approach. We introduce 2 examples with fixed number of signals (MCMC sampling), and 1 example with unknown number of signals (RJ-MCMC), the latter further promoting the idea behind an experimental adaptation of the model indicator proposal densities in the main sampling stage. We note that the experienced runtimes and degeneracies in parameter extraction limit the shown examples to the extraction of a low but realistic number of signals.
Kadoura, Ahmad; Sun, Shuyu; Salama, Amgad
2014-08-01
Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system's potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide.
Karalidi, Theodora; Schneider, Glenn; Hanson, Jake R; Pasachoff, Jay M
2015-01-01
Deducing the cloud cover and its temporal evolution from the observed planetary spectra and phase curves can give us major insight into the atmospheric dynamics. In this paper, we present Aeolus, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo code that maps the structure of brown dwarf and other ultracool atmospheres. We validated Aeolus on a set of unique Jupiter Hubble Space Telescope (HST) light curves. Aeolus accurately retrieves the properties of the major features of the jovian atmosphere such as the Great Red Spot and a major 5um hot spot. Aeolus is the first mapping code validated on actual observations of a giant planet over a full rotational period. For this study, we applied Aeolus to J and H-bands HST light curves of 2MASSJ21392676+0220226 and 2MASSJ0136565+093347. Aeolus retrieves three spots at the top-of-the-atmosphere (per observational wavelength) of these two brown dwarfs, with a surface coverage of 21+-3% and 20.3+-1.5% respectively. The Jupiter HST light curves will be publicly available via ADS/VIZIR.
Kanagi Kanapathy
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The research question is whether the positive relationship found between supplier involvement practices and new product development performances in developed economies also holds in emerging economies. The role of supplier involvement practices in new product development performance is yet to be substantially investigated in the emerging economies (other than China. This premise was examined by distributing a survey instrument (Jayaram’s (2008 published survey instrument that has been utilised in developed economies to Malaysian manufacturing companies. To gauge the relationship between the supplier involvement practices and new product development (NPD project performance of 146 companies, structural equation modelling was adopted. Our findings prove that supplier involvement practices have a significant positive impact on NPD project performance in an emerging economy with respect to quality objectives, design objectives, cost objectives, and “time-to-market” objectives. Further analysis using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, yielding a more credible and feasible differentiation, confirmed these results (even in the case of an emerging economy and indicated that these practices have a 28% impact on variance of NPD project performance. This considerable effect implies that supplier involvement is a must have, although further research is needed to identify the contingencies for its practices.
Kadoura, Ahmad Salim
2014-08-01
Accurate determination of thermodynamic properties of petroleum reservoir fluids is of great interest to many applications, especially in petroleum engineering and chemical engineering. Molecular simulation has many appealing features, especially its requirement of fewer tuned parameters but yet better predicting capability; however it is well known that molecular simulation is very CPU expensive, as compared to equation of state approaches. We have recently introduced an efficient thermodynamically consistent technique to regenerate rapidly Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMCs) at different thermodynamic conditions from the existing data points that have been pre-computed with expensive classical simulation. This technique can speed up the simulation more than a million times, making the regenerated molecular simulation almost as fast as equation of state approaches. In this paper, this technique is first briefly reviewed and then numerically investigated in its capability of predicting ensemble averages of primary quantities at different neighboring thermodynamic conditions to the original simulated MCMCs. Moreover, this extrapolation technique is extended to predict second derivative properties (e.g. heat capacity and fluid compressibility). The method works by reweighting and reconstructing generated MCMCs in canonical ensemble for Lennard-Jones particles. In this paper, system\\'s potential energy, pressure, isochoric heat capacity and isothermal compressibility along isochors, isotherms and paths of changing temperature and density from the original simulated points were extrapolated. Finally, an optimized set of Lennard-Jones parameters (ε, σ) for single site models were proposed for methane, nitrogen and carbon monoxide. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.
Use of Monte Carlo Methods in brachytherapy
The Monte Carlo method has become a fundamental tool for brachytherapy dosimetry mainly because no difficulties associated with experimental dosimetry. In brachytherapy the main handicap of experimental dosimetry is the high dose gradient near the present sources making small uncertainties in the positioning of the detectors lead to large uncertainties in the dose. This presentation will review mainly the procedure for calculating dose distributions around a fountain using the Monte Carlo method showing the difficulties inherent in these calculations. In addition we will briefly review other applications of the method of Monte Carlo in brachytherapy dosimetry, as its use in advanced calculation algorithms, calculating barriers or obtaining dose applicators around. (Author)
Monte Carlo simulation for soot dynamics
Zhou Kun
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A new Monte Carlo method termed Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is developed to simulate the soot dynamics. Detailed stochastic error analysis is provided. Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is coupled with the gas phase solver Chemkin II to simulate soot formation in a 1-D premixed burner stabilized flame. The simulated soot number density, volume fraction, and particle size distribution all agree well with the measurement available in literature. The origin of the bimodal distribution of particle size distribution is revealed with quantitative proof.
Monte carlo simulation for soot dynamics
Zhou, Kun
2012-01-01
A new Monte Carlo method termed Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is developed to simulate the soot dynamics. Detailed stochastic error analysis is provided. Comb-like frame Monte Carlo is coupled with the gas phase solver Chemkin II to simulate soot formation in a 1-D premixed burner stabilized flame. The simulated soot number density, volume fraction, and particle size distribution all agree well with the measurement available in literature. The origin of the bimodal distribution of particle size distribution is revealed with quantitative proof.
Fast quantum Monte Carlo on a GPU
Lutsyshyn, Y
2013-01-01
We present a scheme for the parallelization of quantum Monte Carlo on graphical processing units, focusing on bosonic systems and variational Monte Carlo. We use asynchronous execution schemes with shared memory persistence, and obtain an excellent acceleration. Comparing with single core execution, GPU-accelerated code runs over x100 faster. The CUDA code is provided along with the package that is necessary to execute variational Monte Carlo for a system representing liquid helium-4. The program was benchmarked on several models of Nvidia GPU, including Fermi GTX560 and M2090, and the latest Kepler architecture K20 GPU. Kepler-specific optimization is discussed.
Importance iteration in MORSE Monte Carlo calculations
An expression to calculate point values (the expected detector response of a particle emerging from a collision or the source) is derived and implemented in the MORSE-SGC/S Monte Carlo code. It is outlined how these point values can be smoothed as a function of energy and as a function of the optical thickness between the detector and the source. The smoothed point values are subsequently used to calculate the biasing parameters of the Monte Carlo runs to follow. The method is illustrated by an example, which shows that the obtained biasing parameters lead to a more efficient Monte Carlo calculation. (orig.)
Advanced computers and Monte Carlo
High-performance parallelism that is currently available is synchronous in nature. It is manifested in such architectures as Burroughs ILLIAC-IV, CDC STAR-100, TI ASC, CRI CRAY-1, ICL DAP, and many special-purpose array processors designed for signal processing. This form of parallelism has apparently not been of significant value to many important Monte Carlo calculations. Nevertheless, there is much asynchronous parallelism in many of these calculations. A model of a production code that requires up to 20 hours per problem on a CDC 7600 is studied for suitability on some asynchronous architectures that are on the drawing board. The code is described and some of its properties and resource requirements ae identified to compare with corresponding properties and resource requirements are identified to compare with corresponding properties and resource requirements are identified to compare with corresponding properties and resources of some asynchronous multiprocessor architectures. Arguments are made for programer aids and special syntax to identify and support important asynchronous parallelism. 2 figures, 5 tables
Guideline for radiation transport simulation with the Monte Carlo method
Today, the photon and neutron transport calculations with the Monte Carlo method have been progressed with advanced Monte Carlo codes and high-speed computers. Monte Carlo simulation is rather suitable expression than the calculation. Once Monte Carlo codes become more friendly and performance of computer progresses, most of the shielding problems will be solved by using the Monte Carlo codes and high-speed computers. As those codes prepare the standard input data for some problems, the essential techniques for solving the Monte Carlo method and variance reduction techniques of the Monte Carlo calculation might lose the interests to the general Monte Carlo users. In this paper, essential techniques of the Monte Carlo method and the variance reduction techniques, such as importance sampling method, selection of estimator, and biasing technique, are described to afford a better understanding of the Monte Carlo method and Monte Carlo code. (author)
11th International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing
Nuyens, Dirk
2016-01-01
This book presents the refereed proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Scientific Computing that was held at the University of Leuven (Belgium) in April 2014. These biennial conferences are major events for Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo researchers. The proceedings include articles based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected contributed papers on all theoretical aspects and applications of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. Offering information on the latest developments in these very active areas, this book is an excellent reference resource for theoreticians and practitioners interested in solving high-dimensional computational problems, arising, in particular, in finance, statistics and computer graphics.
Monte Carlo simulations for plasma physics
Okamoto, M.; Murakami, S.; Nakajima, N.; Wang, W.X. [National Inst. for Fusion Science, Toki, Gifu (Japan)
2000-07-01
Plasma behaviours are very complicated and the analyses are generally difficult. However, when the collisional processes play an important role in the plasma behaviour, the Monte Carlo method is often employed as a useful tool. For examples, in neutral particle injection heating (NBI heating), electron or ion cyclotron heating, and alpha heating, Coulomb collisions slow down high energetic particles and pitch angle scatter them. These processes are often studied by the Monte Carlo technique and good agreements can be obtained with the experimental results. Recently, Monte Carlo Method has been developed to study fast particle transports associated with heating and generating the radial electric field. Further it is applied to investigating the neoclassical transport in the plasma with steep gradients of density and temperatures which is beyong the conventional neoclassical theory. In this report, we briefly summarize the researches done by the present authors utilizing the Monte Carlo method. (author)
Monte Carlo Treatment Planning for Advanced Radiotherapy
Cronholm, Rickard
validation of a Monte Carlo model of a medical linear accelerator (i), converting a CT scan of a patient to a Monte Carlo compliant phantom (ii) and translating the treatment plan parameters (including beam energy, angles of incidence, collimator settings etc) to a Monte Carlo input file (iii). A protocol...... more sophisticated than previous algorithms since it uses delineations of structures in order to include and/or exclude certain media in various anatomical regions. This method has the potential to reduce anatomically irrelevant media assignment. In house MATLAB scripts translating the treatment plan...... presented. Comparison between dose distribution for clinical treatment plans generated by a commercial Treatment Planning System and by the implemented Monte Carlo Treatment Planning workflow were conducted. Good agreement was generally found, but for regions involving large density gradients differences of...
Experience with the Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo simulation of radiation transport provides a powerful research and design tool that resembles in many aspects laboratory experiments. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can provide an insight not attainable in the laboratory. However, the Monte Carlo method has its limitations, which if not taken into account can result in misleading conclusions. This paper will present the experience of this author, over almost three decades, in the use of the Monte Carlo method for a variety of applications. Examples will be shown on how the method was used to explore new ideas, as a parametric study and design optimization tool, and to analyze experimental data. The consequences of not accounting in detail for detector response and the scattering of radiation by surrounding structures are two of the examples that will be presented to demonstrate the pitfall of condensed
Frontiers of quantum Monte Carlo workshop: preface
The introductory remarks, table of contents, and list of attendees are presented from the proceedings of the conference, Frontiers of Quantum Monte Carlo, which appeared in the Journal of Statistical Physics
Monte Carlo methods for particle transport
Haghighat, Alireza
2015-01-01
The Monte Carlo method has become the de facto standard in radiation transport. Although powerful, if not understood and used appropriately, the method can give misleading results. Monte Carlo Methods for Particle Transport teaches appropriate use of the Monte Carlo method, explaining the method's fundamental concepts as well as its limitations. Concise yet comprehensive, this well-organized text: * Introduces the particle importance equation and its use for variance reduction * Describes general and particle-transport-specific variance reduction techniques * Presents particle transport eigenvalue issues and methodologies to address these issues * Explores advanced formulations based on the author's research activities * Discusses parallel processing concepts and factors affecting parallel performance Featuring illustrative examples, mathematical derivations, computer algorithms, and homework problems, Monte Carlo Methods for Particle Transport provides nuclear engineers and scientists with a practical guide ...
Monte Carlo simulation of granular fluids
Montanero, J. M.
2003-01-01
An overview of recent work on Monte Carlo simulations of a granular binary mixture is presented. The results are obtained numerically solving the Enskog equation for inelastic hard-spheres by means of an extension of the well-known direct Monte Carlo simulation (DSMC) method. The homogeneous cooling state and the stationary state reached using the Gaussian thermostat are considered. The temperature ratio, the fourth velocity moments and the velocity distribution functions are obtained for bot...
Monte Carlo photon transport techniques
The basis of Monte Carlo calculation of photon transport problems is the computer simulation of individual photon histories and their subsequent averaging to provide the quantities of interest. As the history of a photon is followed the values of variables are selected and decisions made by sampling known distributions using random numbers. The transport of photon is simulated by creation of particles from a defined source region, generally with a random initial orientation in space, with tracking of particles as they travel through the system, sampling the probability density functions for their interactions to evaluate their trajectories and energy deposition at different points in the system. The interactions determine the penetration and the motion of particles. The computational model, for radiation transport problems includes geometry and material specifications. Every computer code contains a database of experimentally obtained quantities, known as cross-sections that determine the probability of a particle interacting with the medium through which it is transported. Every cross-section is peculiar to the type and energy of the incident particle and to the kind of interaction it undergoes. These partial cross-sections are summed to form the total cross-section; the ratio of the partial cross-section to the total cross-section gives the probability of this particular interaction occurring. Cross-section data for the interaction types of interest must be supplied for each material present. The model also consists of algorithms used to compute the result of interactions (changes in particle energy, direction, etc.) based on the physical principles that describe the interaction of radiation with matter and the cross-section data provided
San Martini, F. M.; E. J. Dunlea; R. Volkamer; Onasch, T. B.; J. T. Jayne; Canagaratna, M. R.; Worsnop, D. R.; C. E. Kolb; J. H. Shorter; S. C. Herndon; M. S. Zahniser; D. Salcedo; Dzepina, K.; Jimenez, J. L; Ortega, J. M.
2006-01-01
A Markov Chain Monte Carlo model for integrating the observations of inorganic species with a thermodynamic equilibrium model was presented in Part I of this series. Using observations taken at three ground sites, i.e. a residential, industrial and rural site, during the MCMA-2003 campaign in Mexico City, the model is used to analyze the inorganic particle and ammonia data and to predict gas phase concentrations of nitric and hydrochloric acid. In general, the model is able to accurately pred...
San Martini, F. M.; Dunlea, E. J.; R. Volkamer; Onasch, T. B.; Jayne, J. T.; Canagaratna, M. R.; Worsnop, D. R.; Kolb, C. E.; Shorter, J. H.; Herndon, S. C.; Zahniser, M. S.; D. Salcedo; Dzepina, K.; Jimenez, J. L.; Ortega, J. M.
2006-01-01
A Markov Chain Monte Carlo model for integrating the observations of inorganic species with a thermodynamic equilibrium model was presented in Part I of this series. Using observations taken at three ground sites, i.e. a residential, industrial and rural site, during the MCMA-2003 campaign in Mexico City, the model is used to analyze the inorganic particle and ammonia data and to predict gas phase concentrations of nitric and hydrochloric acid. In general, the mode...
Sparsity has become a key concept for solving of high-dimensional inverse problems using variational regularization techniques. Recently, using similar sparsity-constraints in the Bayesian framework for inverse problems by encoding them in the prior distribution has attracted attention. Important questions about the relation between regularization theory and Bayesian inference still need to be addressed when using sparsity promoting inversion. A practical obstacle for these examinations is the lack of fast posterior sampling algorithms for sparse, high-dimensional Bayesian inversion. Accessing the full range of Bayesian inference methods requires being able to draw samples from the posterior probability distribution in a fast and efficient way. This is usually done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. In this paper, we develop and examine a new implementation of a single component Gibbs MCMC sampler for sparse priors relying on L1-norms. We demonstrate that the efficiency of our Gibbs sampler increases when the level of sparsity or the dimension of the unknowns is increased. This property is contrary to the properties of the most commonly applied Metropolis–Hastings (MH) sampling schemes. We demonstrate that the efficiency of MH schemes for L1-type priors dramatically decreases when the level of sparsity or the dimension of the unknowns is increased. Practically, Bayesian inversion for L1-type priors using MH samplers is not feasible at all. As this is commonly believed to be an intrinsic feature of MCMC sampling, the performance of our Gibbs sampler also challenges common beliefs about the applicability of sample based Bayesian inference. (paper)
Simulating the evolution of the local universe is important for studying galaxies and the intergalactic medium in a way free of cosmic variance. Here we present a method to reconstruct the initial linear density field from an input nonlinear density field, employing the Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm combined with Particle-mesh (PM) dynamics. The HMC+PM method is applied to cosmological simulations, and the reconstructed linear density fields are then evolved to the present day with N-body simulations. These constrained simulations accurately reproduce both the amplitudes and phases of the input simulations at various z. Using a PM model with a grid cell size of 0.75 h –1 Mpc and 40 time steps in the HMC can recover more than half of the phase information down to a scale k ∼ 0.85 h Mpc–1 at high z and to k ∼ 3.4 h Mpc–1 at z = 0, which represents a significant improvement over similar reconstruction models in the literature, and indicates that our model can reconstruct the formation histories of cosmic structures over a large dynamical range. Adopting PM models with higher spatial and temporal resolutions yields even better reconstructions, suggesting that our method is limited more by the availability of computer resource than by principle. Dynamic models of structure evolution adopted in many earlier investigations can induce non-Gaussianity in the reconstructed linear density field, which in turn can cause large systematic deviations in the predicted halo mass function. Such deviations are greatly reduced or absent in our reconstruction.
We present GalMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm designed to fit the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies to infer physical properties such as age, stellar mass, dust reddening, metallicity, redshift, and star formation rate. We describe the features of the code and the extensive tests conducted to ensure that our procedure leads to unbiased parameter estimation and accurate evaluation of uncertainties. We compare its performance to grid-based algorithms, showing that the efficiency in CPU time is ∼100 times better for MCMC for a three-dimensional parameter space and increasing with the number of dimensions. We use GalMC to fit the stacked SEDs of two samples of Lyman alpha emitters (LAEs) at redshift z = 3.1. Our fit reveals that the typical LAE detected in the IRAC 3.6 μm band has age = 0.67 [0.37-1.81] Gyr and stellar mass = 3.2 [2.5-4.2] x 109 Msun, while the typical LAE not detected at 3.6 μm has age = 0.06 [0.01-0.2] Gyr and stellar mass = 2 [1.1-3.4] x 108 Msun. The SEDs of both stacks are consistent with the absence of dust. The data do not significantly prefer exponential with respect to constant star formation history. The stellar populations of these two samples are consistent with the previous study by Lai et al., with some differences due to the improved modeling of the stellar populations. A constraint on the metallicity of z = 3.1 LAEs from broadband photometry, requiring Z sun at 95% confidence, is found here for the first time.
D. G. Partridge
2012-03-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a novel approach to investigate cloud-aerosol interactions by coupling a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm to an adiabatic cloud parcel model. Despite the number of numerical cloud-aerosol sensitivity studies previously conducted few have used statistical analysis tools to investigate the global sensitivity of a cloud model to input aerosol physiochemical parameters. Using numerically generated cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC distributions (i.e. synthetic data as cloud observations, this inverse modelling framework is shown to successfully estimate the correct calibration parameters, and their underlying posterior probability distribution.
The employed analysis method provides a new, integrative framework to evaluate the global sensitivity of the derived CDNC distribution to the input parameters describing the lognormal properties of the accumulation mode aerosol and the particle chemistry. To a large extent, results from prior studies are confirmed, but the present study also provides some additional insights. There is a transition in relative sensitivity from very clean marine Arctic conditions where the lognormal aerosol parameters representing the accumulation mode aerosol number concentration and mean radius and are found to be most important for determining the CDNC distribution to very polluted continental environments (aerosol concentration in the accumulation mode >1000 cm^{−3} where particle chemistry is more important than both number concentration and size of the accumulation mode.
The competition and compensation between the cloud model input parameters illustrates that if the soluble mass fraction is reduced, the aerosol number concentration, geometric standard deviation and mean radius of the accumulation mode must increase in order to achieve the same CDNC distribution.
This study demonstrates that inverse modelling provides a flexible, transparent and
Monte Carlo Methods for Tempo Tracking and Rhythm Quantization
Cemgil, A T; 10.1613/jair.1121
2011-01-01
We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcr...
Meaningful timescales from Monte Carlo simulations of molecular systems
Costa, Liborio I
2016-01-01
A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for simulating the dynamics of molecular systems with atomistic detail is introduced. In contrast to traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo approaches, where the state of the system is associated with minima in the energy landscape, in the proposed method, the state of the system is associated with the set of paths traveled by the atoms and the transition probabilities for an atom to be displaced are proportional to the corresponding velocities. In this way, the number of possible state-to-state transitions is reduced to a discrete set, and a direct link between the Monte Carlo time step and true physical time is naturally established. The resulting rejection-free algorithm is validated against event-driven molecular dynamics: the equilibrium and non-equilibrium dynamics of hard disks converge to the exact results with decreasing displacement size.
Monte Carlo Methods for Rough Free Energy Landscapes: Population Annealing and Parallel Tempering
Machta, Jon; Ellis, Richard S.
2011-01-01
Parallel tempering and population annealing are both effective methods for simulating equilibrium systems with rough free energy landscapes. Parallel tempering, also known as replica exchange Monte Carlo, is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method while population annealing is a sequential Monte Carlo method. Both methods overcome the exponential slowing associated with high free energy barriers. The convergence properties and efficiency of the two methods are compared. For large systems, populatio...
In the 20+ years of Doppler observations of stars, scientists have uncovered a diverse population of extrasolar multi-planet systems. A common technique for characterizing the orbital elements of these planets is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), using a Keplerian model with random walk proposals and paired with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For approximately a couple of dozen planetary systems with Doppler observations, there are strong planet-planet interactions due to the system being in or near a mean-motion resonance (MMR). An N-body model is often required to accurately describe these systems. Further computational difficulties arise from exploring a high-dimensional parameter space (∼7 × number of planets) that can have complex parameter correlations, particularly for systems near a MMR. To surmount these challenges, we introduce a differential evolution MCMC (DEMCMC) algorithm applied to radial velocity data while incorporating self-consistent N-body integrations. Our Radial velocity Using N-body DEMCMC (RUN DMC) algorithm improves upon the random walk proposal distribution of the traditional MCMC by using an ensemble of Markov chains to adaptively improve the proposal distribution. RUN DMC can sample more efficiently from high-dimensional parameter spaces that have strong correlations between model parameters. We describe the methodology behind the algorithm, along with results of tests for accuracy and performance. We find that most algorithm parameters have a modest effect on the rate of convergence. However, the size of the ensemble can have a strong effect on performance. We show that the optimal choice depends on the number of planets in a system, as well as the computer architecture used and the resulting extent of parallelization. While the exact choices of optimal algorithm parameters will inevitably vary due to the details of individual planetary systems (e.g., number of planets, number of observations, orbital periods, and signal
Successful vectorization - reactor physics Monte Carlo code
Most particle transport Monte Carlo codes in use today are based on the ''history-based'' algorithm, wherein one particle history at a time is simulated. Unfortunately, the ''history-based'' approach (present in all Monte Carlo codes until recent years) is inherently scalar and cannot be vectorized. In particular, the history-based algorithm cannot take advantage of vector architectures, which characterize the largest and fastest computers at the current time, vector supercomputers such as the Cray X/MP or IBM 3090/600. However, substantial progress has been made in recent years in developing and implementing a vectorized Monte Carlo algorithm. This algorithm follows portions of many particle histories at the same time and forms the basis for all successful vectorized Monte Carlo codes that are in use today. This paper describes the basic vectorized algorithm along with descriptions of several variations that have been developed by different researchers for specific applications. These applications have been mainly in the areas of neutron transport in nuclear reactor and shielding analysis and photon transport in fusion plasmas. The relative merits of the various approach schemes will be discussed and the present status of known vectorization efforts will be summarized along with available timing results, including results from the successful vectorization of 3-D general geometry, continuous energy Monte Carlo. (orig.)
Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of light nuclei
Quantum Monte Carlo calculations using realistic two- and three-nucleon interactions are presented for nuclei with up to eight nucleons. We have computed the ground and a few excited states of all such nuclei with Greens function Monte Carlo (GFMC) and all of the experimentally known excited states using variational Monte Carlo (VMC). The GFMC calculations show that for a given Hamiltonian, the VMC calculations of excitation spectra are reliable, but the VMC ground-state energies are significantly above the exact values. We find that the Hamiltonian we are using (which was developed based on 3H, 4He, and nuclear matter calculations) underpredicts the binding energy of p-shell nuclei. However our results for excitation spectra are very good and one can see both shell-model and collective spectra resulting from fundamental many-nucleon calculations. Possible improvements in the three-nucleon potential are also be discussed
Monte Carlo strategies in scientific computing
Liu, Jun S
2008-01-01
This paperback edition is a reprint of the 2001 Springer edition This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians It can also be used as the textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods Many problems discussed in the alter chapters can be potential thesis topics for masters’ or PhD students in statistics or computer science departments Jun Liu is Professor of Statistics at Harvard University, with a courtesy Professor appointment at Harvard Biostatistics Department Professor Liu was the recipient of the 2002 COPSS Presidents' Award, the most prestigious one for sta...
Quantum Monte Carlo with Variable Spins
Melton, Cody A; Mitas, Lubos
2016-01-01
We investigate the inclusion of variable spins in electronic structure quantum Monte Carlo, with a focus on diffusion Monte Carlo with Hamiltonians that include spin-orbit interactions. Following our previous introduction of fixed-phase spin-orbit diffusion Monte Carlo (FPSODMC), we thoroughly discuss the details of the method and elaborate upon its technicalities. We present a proof for an upper-bound property for complex nonlocal operators, which allows for the implementation of T-moves to ensure the variational property. We discuss the time step biases associated with our particular choice of spin representation. Applications of the method are also presented for atomic and molecular systems. We calculate the binding energies and geometry of the PbH and Sn$_2$ molecules, as well as the electron affinities of the 6$p$ row elements in close agreement with experiments.