A global learning-centered approach to higher education: workplace development in the 21st century

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Carlos Tasso Eira de Aquino

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Competition in the 21st century economy requires corporations, organizations, and professionals to face a common challenge: diverse individuals need consistent motivation towards building competences that increase personal marketability using a combination of higher education and professional development. This article represents an evolving report summary and non-traditional learning-centered approach focusing on adult competences necessary for succeeding in the competitive global marketplace of the 21st century. The purpose of this article is to understand the needs of constantly changing employer demands in the work environment. Exploring contemporary approaches related to skill development, adult education, and learning processes, will be the path towards higher levels of professional success. This article will provide readers with an enlightening discussion focusing on the necessary adult skills and competencies professionals need to succeed in the global marketplace.

Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

Nuclear energy and global warning - looking ahead to the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ion, M.

1994-01-01

As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use of energy. These include the fossil fuels consumption and nuclear energy proliferation, local and original environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect. Having in view the world population dynamics the future of energy use, and supply is less clear and predictable. Energy scenarios assuming explicit contributions from nuclear power to energy supply clearly show that global emissions of CO 2 - one of the most important gases linked to the greenhouse effect - can be substantially reduced if nuclear energy can further penetrate the electricity market. (Author)

POSSIBLE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL EVOLUTIONS OF GEOPOLITICS IN THE XXI CENTURY (II

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Constantin MINCU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In the paper, the author briefly presents possible global and regional evolutions of geopolitics in the XXI century grounded on the analysis of some regards expressed by foreign and Romanian specialists in many papers appeared in the late years on this subject. A special attention is granted to the book published by STRATFOR founder George FRIEDMAN “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century”, edited in Romania to the Litera Publishing House in 2012. The evolutions forecasted on medium and long term will practically damage all Earth’s population and its regions, with dramatic consequences on economic, financial, social, military and environmental plan. The most of the geopolitics’ specialists appreciate with arguments and grounded there will be following intricate decades with riots and wars with spectacular up side downs of situations and major reconfigurations of areas of influence of major powers with important influences also over Romania.

The global energy context -- chances and challenges for the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, G.

2002-01-01

Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2000 million people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

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N. Wanders

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

Globalization and environmental challenges. Reconceptualizing security in the 21{sup st} century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City (MX). Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Economics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland); Chadha Behera, Navnita [Jamia Millia Islamia Univ., New Delhi (India). Nelson Mandela Center for Peace and Conflict Resolution; Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Nairobi Univ. (Kenya), Dept. of Private Law; Liotta, P.H. (eds.) [Salve Regina Univ., Newport, RI (United States). Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy

2008-07-01

Put quite simply, the twin impacts of globalization and environmental degradation pose new security dangers and concerns. In this comprehensive new work on global security thinking, 91 authors from five continents and many disciplines, from science and practice, assess the worldwide reassessment of the meaning of security triggered by the end of the Cold War and globalization, as well as the multifarious impacts of global environmental change in the early 21st century. Chapters address the theoretical, philosophical, ethical and religious and spatial context of security. They analyze the relationship between security, peace, development and environment. The authors move on to review the rethinking of security in international law, economics and political science, as well as in the key political, military and economic milieux. The book also examines the environmental security dimension and the adaptation of the institutional security concepts of the UN, EU and NATO, and analyzes the effect of change on regional security. Finally, it posits alternative security futures and draws conclusions for future research and action. (orig.)

The globalization of tobacco use: 21 challenges for the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Thomas; Seffrin, John R; Brawley, Otis W; Grey, Nathan; Ross, Hana

2010-01-01

The globalization of tobacco began more than 500 years ago, but the public health response to the death, disease, and economic disruption that it has caused is fewer than 50 years old. In this report, the authors briefly trace the history of tobacco use and commerce as it moved from the Americas in the late 15th century and then eastward. They then discuss the wide range of issues that must be addressed, and the equally wide range of expertise that is needed if the global health community is to be successful in reducing, and eventually eliminating, the rising tide of tobacco use, particularly in the low- and middle-income nations that are the target of the multinational tobacco industry.

Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, J.M.; White, N.J.; Church, J.A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Box, J.E.; Van den Broeke, M.R.; Cogley, J.G.; Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Huybrechts, P.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Leclercq, P.W.; Marzeion, B.; Oerlemans, J.; Tamisiea, M.E.; Wada, Y.; Wake, L.M.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.

2013-01-01

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

Science.gov (United States)

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.

2013-03-01

Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use.

Energy prices will play an important role in determining global land use in the twenty first century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W

2013-01-01

Global land use research to date has focused on quantifying uncertainty effects of three major drivers affecting competition for land: the uncertainty in energy and climate policies affecting competition between food and biofuels, the uncertainty of climate impacts on agriculture and forestry, and the uncertainty in the underlying technological progress driving efficiency of food, bioenergy and timber production. The market uncertainty in fossil fuel prices has received relatively less attention in the global land use literature. Petroleum and natural gas prices affect both the competitiveness of biofuels and the cost of nitrogen fertilizers. High prices put significant pressure on global land supply and greenhouse gas emissions from terrestrial systems, while low prices can moderate demands for cropland. The goal of this letter is to assess and compare the effects of these core uncertainties on the optimal profile for global land use and land-based GHG emissions over the coming century. The model that we develop integrates distinct strands of agronomic, biophysical and economic literature into a single, intertemporally consistent, analytical framework, at global scale. Our analysis accounts for the value of land-based services in the production of food, first- and second-generation biofuels, timber, forest carbon and biodiversity. We find that long-term uncertainty in energy prices dominates the climate impacts and climate policy uncertainties emphasized in prior research on global land use. (letter)

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kesicki, Fabian; Anandarajah, Gabrial

2011-01-01

In order to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO 2 emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: → A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. → The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. → Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. → Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. → Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

The role of energy-service demand reduction in global climate change mitigation: Combining energy modelling and decomposition analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kesicki, Fabian, E-mail: fabian.kesicki.09@ucl.ac.uk [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom); Anandarajah, Gabrial [UCL Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN (United Kingdom)

2011-11-15

In order to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions different options have been considered: energy efficiency improvements, structural changes to low carbon or zero carbon fuel/technologies, carbon sequestration, and reduction in energy-service demands (useful energy). While efficiency and technology options have been extensively studied within the context of climate change mitigation, this paper addresses the possible role of price-related energy-service demand reduction. For this analysis, the elastic demand version of the TIAM-UCL global energy system model is used in combination with decomposition analysis. The results of the CO{sub 2} emission decomposition indicate that a reduction in energy-service demand can play a limited role, contributing around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. A look at the sectoral level reveals that the demand reduction can play a greater role in selected sectors like transport contributing around 16% at a global level. The societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. - Highlights: > A reduction in global energy-service demand can contribute around 5% to global emission reduction in the 21st century. > The role of demand is a lot higher in transport than in the residential sector. > Contribution of demand reduction is higher in early periods of the 21st century. > Societal welfare loss is found to be high when the price elasticity of demand is low. > Regional shares in residual emissions vary under different elasticity scenarios.

The global energy context: Chances and challenges for the 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, G.

2000-01-01

Energy is the driving force towards economic and social development. Global demand for energy will keep growing for many years to come due to ongoing, although reduced population growth, and due to the needs of up to 2 billion people who are still without access to commercial energy. To meet this growing demand for energy, all options have to be kept open, with fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro dominating the energy mix for the next decades, and 'new' renewables coming in only slowly. Considering the resulting strain on the environment, and looking at existing disparities in energy supply, the next few decades will not be free of tensions. A turning point may appear in the mid 21st century with world population coming to a halt, distinctly improved energy efficiency also in the Developing World, and with new technologies available. Thus, mainly challenges will determine the first half of the century, whereas chances are on hand for the second half of the century - if we act now. The single most important instrument to meet these challenges and to take advantage of the chances is a concentrated move towards energy efficiency and innovation, supported by market reform and appropriate regulation. (author)

Exploring Changes in Nitrogen and Phosphorus Retention in Global Rivers in the Twentieth Century

Science.gov (United States)

Beusen, A.; Bouwman, L.; Van Beek, R.; Wisser, D.; Hartmann, J.

2012-12-01

Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by components of river basins (soils, groundwater, riparian zones, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs). The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. For analyzing the impact of multiple changes and disturbances at the global scale, we use a distributed approach to describe the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) transport and retention in all the above river basin components. A hydrological model is used to describe the water flow through the respective compartments. We analyze the changes in retention during the past century (1900-2000), as this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities that have resulted in global changes, such as climate change, land use change, changes in the hydrology by dam construction, irrigation, and consumptive water use. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from nutrient spiraling concept. We concentrate on the flows of total N and total P, because of the importance of the ratios between these two elements for biogeochemistry and the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. Since the various processes in the different compartments in terms of delivery to surface water are poorly known, we present a sensitivity analysis of the modeled river export for a number of key variables.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

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Pilarski Michał

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

2018-02-01

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) business as usual emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y-1. Using REA also leads to a 45-68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions.

Portuguese knights-errant in nineteenth-century Paris and Rio: translation as response to exile in global cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Bueno Maia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This article aims to uncover the role played by a series of picaresque novels translated into Portuguese and published in midnineteenth-century Paris in helping the Portuguese diaspora cope with the challenges of being a migrant in a global city. Through a contextual analysis, it will be argued that these novels were part of vaster cultural projects aimed at establishing solidarity networks among Portuguese exiles in Paris and, at the same time, at preserving multilingualism. By means of a textual analysis of Dom Severino Magriço ou o Dom Quichote portuguez (Paris, Pillet Fils Aîné, 1851, it will be suggested that this particular target text is committed to helping Portuguese migrants in Paris and in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, this novel illustrates ways of engaging with multiple Others, mainly through the reading and comparing of national literary canons.

Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meng, Qingjia [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, River and Coastal Environment Research Center, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Qingdao (China); Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Martin, Thomas [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Semenov, Vladimir A. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2012-05-15

Recent studies indicate a weakening of the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century. Here, we present evidence from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by the history of observed sea surface temperature (SST) that the Walker Circulation may have intensified rather than weakened. Observed Equatorial Indo-Pacific Sector SST since 1870 exhibited a zonally asymmetric evolution: While the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific showed only a weak warming, or even cooling in one SST dataset, the western part and the Equatorial Indian Ocean exhibited a rather strong warming. This has resulted in an increase of the SST gradient between the Maritime Continent and the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, one driving force of the Walker Circulation. The ensemble experiments with the AGCM, with and without time-varying external forcing, suggest that the enhancement of the SST gradient drove an anomalous atmospheric circulation, with an enhancement of both Walker and Hadley Circulation. Anomalously strong precipitation is simulated over the Indian Ocean and anomalously weak precipitation over the western Pacific, with corresponding changes in the surface wind pattern. Some sensitivity to the forcing SST, however, is noticed. The analysis of twentieth century integrations with global climate models driven with observed radiative forcing obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) database support the link between the SST gradient and Walker Circulation strength. Furthermore, control integrations with the CMIP models indicate the existence of strong internal variability on centennial timescales. The results suggest that a radiatively forced signal in the Walker Circulation during the twentieth century may have been too weak to be detectable. (orig.)

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Radley M.; Little, Christopher M.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rasmussen, D. J.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Tebaldi, Claudia

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2?m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9?m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8?m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

Effects of global change during the 21st century onthe nitrogen cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, D.; Steadman, C. E.; Stevenson, D.; Coyle, M.; Rees, R. M.; Skiba, U. M.; Sutton, M. A.; Cape, J. N.; Dore, A. J.; Vieno, M.; Simpson, D.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, M. C.; Flechard, C. R.; Nemitz, E.; Twigg, M.; Erisman, J. W.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Galloway, J. N.

2015-12-01

The global nitrogen (N) cycle at the beginning of the 21st century has been shown to be strongly influenced by the inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr) from human activities, including combustion-related NOx, industrial and agricultural N fixation, estimated to be 220 Tg N yr-1 in 2010, which is approximately equal to the sum of biological N fixation in unmanaged terrestrial and marine ecosystems. According to current projections, changes in climate and land use during the 21st century will increase both biological and anthropogenic fixation, bringing the total to approximately 600 Tg N yr-1 by around 2100. The fraction contributed directly by human activities is unlikely to increase substantially if increases in nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture are achieved and control measures on combustion-related emissions implemented. Some N-cycling processes emerge as particularly sensitive to climate change. One of the largest responses to climate in the processing of Nr is the emission to the atmosphere of NH3, which is estimated to increase from 65 Tg N yr-1 in 2008 to 93 Tg N yr-1 in 2100 assuming a change in global surface temperature of 5 °C in the absence of increased anthropogenic activity. With changes in emissions in response to increased demand for animal products the combined effect would be to increase NH3 emissions to 135 Tg N yr-1. Another major change is the effect of climate changes on aerosol composition and specifically the increased sublimation of NH4NO3 close to the ground to form HNO3 and NH3 in a warmer climate, which deposit more rapidly to terrestrial surfaces than aerosols. Inorganic aerosols over the polluted regions especially in Europe and North America were dominated by (NH4)2SO4 in the 1970s to 1980s, and large reductions in emissions of SO2 have removed most of the SO42- from the atmosphere in these regions. Inorganic aerosols from anthropogenic emissions are now dominated by NH4NO3, a volatile aerosol which contributes substantially to PM10

Book of extremes why the 21st century isn’t like the 20th century

CERN Document Server

Lewis, Ted G

2014-01-01

What makes the 21st century different from the 20th century? This century is the century of extremes -- political, economic, social, and global black-swan events happening with increasing frequency and severity. Book of Extremes is a tour of the current reality as seen through the lens of complexity theory – the only theory capable of explaining why the Arab Spring happened and why it will happen again; why social networks in the virtual world behave like flashmobs in the physical world; why financial bubbles blow up in our faces and will grow and burst again; why the rich get richer and will continue to get richer regardless of governmental policies; why the future of economic wealth and national power lies in comparative advantage and global trade; why natural disasters will continue to get bigger and happen more frequently; and why the Internet – invented by the US -- is headed for a global monopoly controlled by a non-US corporation. It is also about the extreme innovations and heroic innovators yet t...

Portuguese knights-errant in nineteenth-century Paris and Rio: translation as response to exile in global cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rita Bueno Maia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7968.2017v37n1p159 This article aims to uncover the role played by a series of picaresque novels translated into Portuguese and published in midnineteenth-century Paris in helping the Portuguese diaspora cope with the challenges of being a migrant in a global city. Through a contextual analysis, it will be argued that these novels were part of vaster cultural projects aimed at establishing solidarity networks among Portuguese exiles in Paris and, at the same time, at preserving multilingualism. By means of a textual analysis of Dom Severino Magriço ou o Dom Quichote portuguez (Paris, Pillet Fils Aîné, 1851, it will be suggested that this particular target text is committed to helping Portuguese migrants in Paris and in Rio de Janeiro. Furthermore, this novel illustrates ways of engaging with multiple Others, mainly through the reading and comparing of national literary canons.

Educational Policy Development in China for the 21st Century: Rationality and Challenges in a Globalizing Age

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jun

2017-01-01

Policies are in the epicenter of, if not in the driving seat for, educational development in any societal context. Since the turn of the 21st century alongside China's re-emergence as a global superpower, educational policies in China have witnessed fundamental transformations as they have been maneuvered with ambitious plans for national,…

Reconciling past changes in Earth's rotation with 20th century global sea-level rise: Resolving Munk's enigma.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Dumberry, Mathieu; Stanley, Sabine

2015-12-01

In 2002, Munk defined an important enigma of 20th century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise that has yet to be resolved. First, he listed three canonical observations related to Earth's rotation [(i) the slowing of Earth's rotation rate over the last three millennia inferred from ancient eclipse observations, and changes in the (ii) amplitude and (iii) orientation of Earth's rotation vector over the last century estimated from geodetic and astronomic measurements] and argued that they could all be fit by a model of ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) associated with the last ice age. Second, he demonstrated that prevailing estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (~1.5 to 2.0 mm/year), after correction for the maximum signal from ocean thermal expansion, implied mass flux from ice sheets and glaciers at a level that would grossly misfit the residual GIA-corrected observations of Earth's rotation. We demonstrate that the combination of lower estimates of the 20th century GMSL rise (up to 1990) improved modeling of the GIA process and that the correction of the eclipse record for a signal due to angular momentum exchange between the fluid outer core and the mantle reconciles all three Earth rotation observations. This resolution adds confidence to recent estimates of individual contributions to 20th century sea-level change and to projections of GMSL rise to the end of the 21st century based on them.

Randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the 20th century climate data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teija Seitola

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this article, we introduce a new algorithm called randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis (RMSSA, which is a generalisation of the traditional multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA into problems of arbitrarily large dimension. RMSSA consists of (1 a dimension reduction of the original data via random projections, (2 the standard MSSA step and (3 a recovery of the MSSA eigenmodes from the reduced space back to the original space. The RMSSA algorithm is presented in detail and additionally we show how to integrate it with a significance test based on a red noise null-hypothesis by Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, RMSSA is applied to decompose the 20th century global monthly mean near-surface temperature variability into its low-frequency components. The decomposition of a reanalysis data set and two climate model simulations reveals, for instance, that the 2–6 yr variability centred in the Pacific Ocean is captured by all the data sets with some differences in statistical significance and spatial patterns.

Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelini, M.

2001-01-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

THE DISPUTE BETWEEN POLITICAL THEOLOGY AND THE POLITICS OF THEOLOGY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ON THE MEANINGS OF THE POSTMODERN GLOBALIZING AND INDIVIDUALISTIC SOCIETY AND THE CHRISTIAN PERSONALIST GLOBALITY

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Stelian MANOLACHE

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Upon the dawn of postmodernity, in the twenty-first century, we witness the emergence of a new way of thinking and of new forms of culture and life, under the ideology of globalism, whose dominance is given by the practicality and utility related to civilization, and under globality, which is the cultural aspect of globalization, pertaining to the field of culture. The two dimensions of globalization and globality, civilizational and cultural, will (requestion the principle relationship between Christianity and the new postmodern globalizing utopia, requiring to (reconsider the sense and presence of Christianity within the world, and the appropriate sociological figure of the Church, within the new reality of global and globalized humanity, in the postmodern public space. This paper deals with this ideology - globalism and the cultural manifestation of globality, and with the Orthodox answer to the new challenge of individualism and postmodern globalizing (neocollectivism.

A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

Science.gov (United States)

Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J. T.

2013-12-01

This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

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Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

Shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance in global fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century

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Tian, H.; Lu, C.

2016-12-01

In addition to enhance agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically altered global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedbacks to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system/land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use over-simplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long period. In this study, we therefore develop a global time-series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in croplands, matched with HYDE 3,2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5º latitude by longitude during 1900-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961, when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) survey of country-level fertilizer input were available. Considering cropland expansion, increase of total fertilizer consumption amount is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer use shifted from the U.S. and Western Europe in the 1960s to East Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input show the similar pattern with additional hotspot in Brazil. We find a global increase of fertilizer N/P ratio by 0.8 g N/g P per decade (phuman impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global assessment on agricultural productivity, crop yield, agriculture-derived greenhouse gas balance, global nutrient budget, land-to-aquatic nutrient loss, and ecosystem feedback to the climate system.

Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics

CERN Document Server

Luo, Albert

2012-01-01

Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics collects chapters on recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems with a particular emphasis on cell mapping methods developed by Professor C.S. Hsu of the University of California, Berkeley. This collection of contributions prepared by a diverse group of internationally recognized researchers is intended to stimulate interests in global analysis of complex and high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems, whose global properties are largely unexplored at this time. This book also: Presents recent developments in global analysis of non-linear dynamical systems Provides in-depth considerations and extensions of cell mapping methods Adopts an inclusive style accessible to non-specialists and graduate students Global Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamics is an ideal reference for the community of nonlinear dynamics in different disciplines including engineering, applied mathematics, meteorology, life science, computational science, and medicine.  

The eighteenth century in the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire: perspectives for a global history

OpenAIRE

Lafi , Nora

2014-01-01

International audience; In his 1954 address to the American Philosophical Society on the role of the Ottoman Empire in world history, Arnold Toynbee emphasized the importance of the year 1453. The subsequent centuries he envisioned as merely a series of splendours and failures leading inevitably to the collapse of the Empire and the creation of the modern Turkish state. For many years, the process was seen as follows: the Ottoman Empire was a counterpoint to great global frescoes which had li...

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

Science Policy at the Wrong Scale and Without Adequate Political Institutions: Parallels between the U.S. 19th Century and the 21st Century Global Contexts

Science.gov (United States)

McCurdy, K. M.

2012-12-01

The Constitution of the United States is a document for economic development written by people wary of government failure at the extremes, whether too heavy handed a central government or too loose a confederation. The strong central government favored by Hamilton, Industrialists and later by forward thinking men of the 19th century created a discontinuity wherein government institutions designed to facilitate agriculture were incapable of regulating corporations operating on a national scale, which made mineral and other natural resource exploitation needed to support industrialization enormously profitable. At the same time, Agriculturalists and other conservative citizens sought to control the economy by protecting their rural interests and power. The political institutional power remained with states as agriculturalists and industrialists struggled for economic superiority in the 19th century. As Agriculture moved west, Science warned of the dangers of extending Homesteading regulations into arid regions to no avail. The west was settled in townships without concern for watersheds, carrying capacity, or climatic variability. Gold seekers ignored the consequences of massive hydraulic mining techniques. The tension resident in the Constitution between strong local control of government (states' rights) and a strong central government (nationalism) provided no institutional context to resolve mining problems or other 19th century policy problems linked to rapid population expansion and industrialization. Environmental protection in the late 20th century has been the last wave of nationalized policy solutions following the institution-building blueprint provided by electoral successes in the Progressive, New Deal, and Great Society eras. Suddenly in the 21st century, scientific warnings of dangers again go unheeded, this time as evidence of global warming mounts. Again, tension in policy making exists in all political arenas (executive, legislative and judicial at

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

The 21st Century as Whose Century?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Scott

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Macro-analysis and East-West encounter are shown through consideration of objective yet subjective constructed concepts for the international system and international economy in the 21st century. Three paradigms are considered, namely the 21st century as the ‘Pacific Century’, as ‘China’s Century’ and as the ‘Asian Century’. Overlaps are shown between these three paradigms, as also developments in time, and gradually shift in geographical location. The ‘Pacific Century’, and its associated Rimspeak, was the paradigm emerging in the late 1970s, knitting together America’s West Coast and the Japanese economy. By the late 1980s this was already shifting to talk of the 21st century likely to be an ‘Asian Century’ model, mark-1, based on the Pacific Asia dynamism shown by the ‘Asian Tigers’ and Japan. However, the Asian financial crash of 1997-8, and the economic downturn in Japan, meant that such an ‘Asian Century’ seemed premature as the 21st century arrived. Instead, it was China’s economic growth that seemed most evident, and with it the concept of the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’. However, in turn that has already been modified during the first decade of the century by India’s arrival as a rapidly growing economy. Consequently the 21st century as ‘China’s Century’ and as ‘India’s Century’ has been combined into talk of an ‘Asian Century’, mark-2.

Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bittermann, Klaus; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Perrette, Mahé; Vermeer, Martin

2013-01-01

The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted by the semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. (letter)

Two centuries of economic territorial dynamics: the case of France

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Magali Talandier

2016-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an analysis of the socio-economic development processes at work in territories at the scale of French communes from 1806 to 2010. This is an extremely fine scale for such analysis, given that there are 36,000 communes in mainland France. The diachronic dimension, spanning two centuries, makes it possible to consider the temporal depth of territorial development. But the primary interest is not so much demographics as the socio-economic dimension of these variations over two centuries. We have analysed demographic changes as the expression of the socio-economic processes that shaped French territory over two centuries. Dynamic mapping of long-term population shifts reflects the industrial expansion of certain territories, decline due to the end of traditional farming practices, the shock produced by two world wars, the Fordist period and the post-war boom; the subsequent impact of an increasingly globalized, metropolitan economy then becomes apparent. We thus identify, map and analyse several historico-socio-economic phases.

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance. PMID:28458910

Tobacco industry globalization and global health governance: towards an interdisciplinary research agenda.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kelley; Eckhardt, Jappe; Holden, Chris

2016-01-01

Shifting patterns of tobacco production and consumption, and the resultant disease burden worldwide since the late twentieth century, prompted efforts to strengthen global health governance through adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. While the treaty is rightfully considered an important achievement, to address a neglected public health issue through collective action, evidence suggests that tobacco industry globalization continues apace. In this article, we provide a systematic review of the public health literature and reveal definitional and measurement imprecision, ahistorical timeframes, transnational tobacco companies and the state as the primary units and levels of analysis, and a strong emphasis on agency as opposed to structural power. Drawing on the study of globalization in international political economy and business studies, we identify opportunities to expand analysis along each of these dimensions. We conclude that this expanded and interdisciplinary research agenda provides the potential for fuller understanding of the dual and dynamic relationship between the tobacco industry and globalization. Deeper analysis of how the industry has adapted to globalization over time, as well as how the industry has influenced the nature and trajectory of globalization, is essential for building effective global governance responses. This article is published as part of a thematic collection dedicated to global governance.

Morphing into a 21st Century Trainer.

Science.gov (United States)

Mager, R. F.

1996-01-01

Forces that will affect trainers into the next century include rapid change, information overload, globalization, downsizing, empowerment, and remote worksites. Key characteristics of a 21st-century trainer include performance orientation, technical skills, social skills, self-employability, bilingualism, and international competence. (JOW)

Global energy context: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretta, Gian Paolo

2006-01-01

After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

Does global warning increase establishment rates of invasive alien species? A centurial time series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dingcheng Huang; Robert A. Haack; Runzhi. Zhang

2011-01-01

The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the...

Exploring the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemistry in global rivers during the twentieth century (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Bouwman, L.; Beusen, A.; Van Beek, L. P.

2013-12-01

Nutrients are transported from land to sea through the continuum formed by soils, groundwater, riparian zones, floodplains, streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. The hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing in each of these components are strongly coupled and result in retention of a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. This paper analyzes the global changes in nutrient biogeochemical processes and retention in rivers during the past century (1900-2000); this period encompasses dramatic increases in human population and economic human activities including agriculture that have resulted in major changes in land use, nutrient use in agriculture, wastewater flows and human interventions in the hydrology (1). We use the hydrological PCR-GLOBWB model (2) for the period 1900-2000, including climate variability and the history of dam construction and land use conversion. Global agricultural and natural N and P soil budgets for the period 1900-2000 are the starting point to simulate nutrient flows from the soil via surface runoff and leaching through the groundwater system and riparian zones. In-stream processes are described with the nutrient spiraling concept. In the period 1900-2000, the global soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal in harvested crops) for agricultural and natural ecosystems increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr-1, and the global P budget increased from nutrient delivery to streams and river nutrient export has increased rapidly in the 20th century. Model results are sensitive to factors determining the N and P delivery, as well as in-stream processes. The most uncertain factors are N delivery to streams by groundwater (denitrification as a function of thickness and reactivity of aquifers), and in-stream N and P retention parameters (net uptake velocity, retention as function of concentration). References 1. Bouwman AF, Beusen AHW, Griffioen J, Van Groenigen JW, Hefting MM, Oenema O, et al. Global trends and uncertainties in

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

Closing the 21st century global water gap: costs and effectiveness of adaptation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Bierkens, M. F.; Droogers, P.; Hunink, J.; Buitink, J.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Van Beek, L. P.; Straatsma, M. W.

2017-12-01

Water scarcity affects a major part of the globe, and is expected to increase significantly until 2100 as a result of climate change and socioeconomic developments. Yet, global projections are unavailable on the effectiveness and costs of adaptation measures to close the future water gap under global change. Here, we present a 21st century projection of the closure of the water gap under two contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios: RCP2.6/SSP1(s1) and RCP8.5/SSP5(s5). We coupled a global hydrological model to water demand and redistribution model, and forced them with five General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the future water gap for 1604 water provinces covering most of the global land mass. Subsequently, using so-called water availability cost curves, we determined the water gap reduction that could be achieved by increasingly aggressive and expensive sets of adaptation measures, respectively aimed at improving agriculture, increasing water supply, and reducing water demands. Our results show that for s1, the water gap peaks around 2050 and declines towards 2100. Contrastingly, for s5, the gap increases linearly. Hotspots in water scarcity are found in the USA, India, and China. The proposed adaptation sets reduce the water gap, but for the majority of the hotspots are not sufficient to close the water gap completely. The median annual adaptation costs for the proposed measures amount to less than 2% of the GDP of the affected water provinces. Although these costs are already substantial, they do leave room for additional unorthodox adaptation measures.

Global health in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Laaser, Ulrich; Brand, Helmut

2014-01-01

Since the end of the 1990s, globalization has become a common term, facilitated by the social media of today and the growing public awareness of life-threatening problems common to all people, such as global warming, global security and global divides. For the main parameters of health like the burden of disease, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy, extreme discrepancies are observed across the world. Infant mortality, malnutrition and high fertility go hand in hand. Civil society, as an indispensable activator of public health development, mainly represented by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), is characterised by a high degree of fragmentation and lack of public accountability. The World Federation of Public Health Associations is used as an example of an NGO with a global mission and fostering regional cooperation as an indispensable intermediate level.The lack of a globally valid terminology of basic public health functions is prohibitive for coordinated global and regional efforts. Attempts to harmonise essential public health functions, services and operations are under way to facilitate communication and mutual understanding. 1) Given the limited effects of the Millennium Development Goal agenda, the Post-2015 Development Goals should focus on integrated regional development. 2) A code of conduct for NGOs should be urgently developed for the health sector, and NGOs should be registered and accredited. 3) The harmonisation of the basic terminology for global public health essentials should be enhanced.

Global priority conservation areas in the face of 21st century climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Junsheng Li

Full Text Available In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the "Global 200" ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to "achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems" - over the 21(st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

The globalization and environmental sustainability of LNG: Is LNG a fuel for the 21st century?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sakmar, Susan

2010-09-15

As the world enters the 21st Century, policy makers around the world are grappling with issues related to energy security, energy poverty, global climate change, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while meeting an expected increase in demand for all energy sources. As a clean burning fuel, many policy leaders have suggested that LNG can play an important role as the world struggles to develop a more environmental sustainable energy future. Others claim that the safety and environmental impact of LNG, including life-cycle emissions, may nullify any clean burning benefit LNG might otherwise provide.

One Century of Global IQ Gains: A Formal Meta-Analysis of the Flynn Effect (1909-2013).

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Pietschnig, Jakob; Voracek, Martin

2015-05-01

The Flynn effect (rising intelligence test performance in the general population over time and generations) varies enigmatically across countries and intelligence domains; its substantive meaning and causes remain elusive. This first formal meta-analysis on the topic revealed worldwide IQ gains across more than one century (1909-2013), based on 271 independent samples, totaling almost 4 million participants, from 31 countries. Key findings include that IQ gains vary according to domain (estimated 0.41, 0.30, 0.28, and 0.21 IQ points annually for fluid, spatial, full-scale, and crystallized IQ test performance, respectively), are stronger for adults than children, and have decreased in more recent decades. Altogether, these findings narrow down proposed theories and candidate factors presumably accounting for the Flynn effect. Factors associated with life history speed seem mainly responsible for the Flynn effect's general trajectory, whereas favorable social multiplier effects and effects related to economic prosperity appear to be responsible for observed differences of the Flynn effect across intelligence domains. © The Author(s) 2015.

The role of atmospheric nuclear explosions on the stagnation of global warming in the mid 20th century

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Fujii, Yoshiaki

2011-04-01

This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.

The Century of Education. CEE DP 109

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Morrisson, Christian; Murtin, Fabrice

2009-01-01

Global economic transformations have never been as dramatic as in the twentieth century. Most countries have experienced radical changes in the standards of income per capita, technology, fertility, mortality, income inequality and the extent of democracy in the course of the past century. It is the goal of many disciplines--economics, history,…

Rethinking Teacher Education: Synchronizing Eastern and Western Views of Teaching and Learning to Promote 21st Century Skills and Global Perspectives

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Smith, Judith; Hu, Ran

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to share findings with educators across disciplines of how to incorporate an eastern and western blended philosophy of teaching and learning to promote 21st century skills and global perspectives. Drawing from a previous self-study of their views of teaching and learning between Chinese and American cultures, the two…

Science and technology for the 21. century: Meeting the needs of the global community

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

This report summarizes the organization, activities and outcomes of Student Pugwash USA`s 1994 International Conference, Science and Technology for the 21st Century: Meeting the Needs of the Global Community. The Conference was held June 12--18, 1994 at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, and brought together 91 students from 25 countries and over 65 experts from industry, academy, and government. Student Pugwash USA`s International Conference provided a valuable forum for talented students and professionals to engage in critical dialogue on many interdisciplinary issues at the junction of science, technology and society. The 1994 International Conference challenged students--the world`s future scientists, engineers, and political leaders--to think broadly about global problems and to devise policy options that are viable and innovative. In addition to afternoon and evening plenary sessions, six working groups met each morning of the Conference week. The working group themes featured: preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution for a secure future; resource stewardship for environmental sustainability; the social costs and medical benefits of human genetic information; overcoming barriers to health care education and delivery; meeting societal needs through communication and information technologies; and designing the future--from corporations to communities.

The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility.

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Fisch, Harry; Andrews, Howard F; Fisch, Karen S; Golden, Robert; Liberson, Gary; Olsson, Carl A

2003-07-01

According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth's surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (phuman fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.

Forms and subannual variability of nitrogen and phosphorus loading to global river networks over the 20th century

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Vilmin, Lauriane; Mogollón, José M.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Bouwman, Alexander F.

2018-04-01

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play a major role in the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic systems. N and P transfer to surface freshwaters has amplified during the 20th century, which has led to widespread eutrophication problems. The contribution of different sources, natural and anthropogenic, to total N and P loading to river networks has recently been estimated yearly using the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment - Global Nutrient Model (IMAGE-GNM). However, eutrophic events generally result from a combination of physicochemical conditions governed by hydrological dynamics and the availability of specific nutrient forms that vary at subyearly timescales. In the present study, we define for each simulated nutrient source: i) its speciation, and ii) its subannual temporal pattern. Thereby, we simulate the monthly loads of different N (ammonium, nitrate + nitrite, and organic N) and P forms (dissolved and particulate inorganic P, and organic P) to global river networks over the whole 20th century at a half-degree spatial resolution. Results indicate that, together with an increase in the delivery of all nutrient forms to global rivers, the proportion of inorganic forms in total N and P inputs has risen from 30 to 43% and from 56 to 65%, respectively. The high loads originating from fertilized agricultural lands and the increasing proportion of sewage inputs have led to a greater proportion of DIN forms (ammonium and nitrate), that are usually more bioavailable. Soil loss from agricultural lands, which delivers large amounts of particle-bound inorganic P to surface freshwaters, has become the dominant P source, which is likely to lead to an increased accumulation of legacy P in slow flowing areas (e.g., lakes and reservoirs). While the TN:TP ratio of the loads has remained quite stable, the DIN:DIP molar ratio, which is likely to affect algal development the most, has increased from 18 to 27 globally. Human activities have also affected the

Examining the Efficacy of Project-Based Learning on Cultivating the 21st Century Skills among High School Students in a Global Context

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Lin, Chi-Syan; Ma, Jung-Tsan; Kuo, Karen Yi-Chwen; Chou, Chien-Tzu Candace

2015-01-01

The goal of the study is to explore the opportunities and challenges associated with Project-Based Learning strategy in a global context on the aspects of both fostering learning community of practices and nurturing the 21st century skills. For collecting empirical data, the study implements and administers an online international project-based…

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

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Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Antimicrobial Resistance Expressed by Neisseria gonorrhoeae: A Major Global Public Health Problem in the 21st Century.

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Unemo, Magnus; Del Rio, Carlos; Shafer, William M

2016-06-01

Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a strictly human pathogen that is typically transmitted by sexual contact. The associated disease gonorrhea has plagued humankind for thousands of years, with a current estimated incidence of 78 million cases per year. Advances in antimicrobial discovery in the 1920s and 1930s leading to the discovery of sulfonamides and penicillin begun the era of effective antimicrobial treatment of gonorrhea. Unfortunately, the gonococcus developed decreased susceptibility or even resistance to these initially employed antibiotics, a trend that continued over subsequent decades with each new antibiotic that was brought into clinical practice. As this pattern of resistance has continued into the 21st century, there is now reason for great concern, especially in an era when few new antibiotics have prospects for use as treatment of gonorrhea. Here, we review the history of gonorrhea treatment regimens and gonococcal resistance to antibiotics, the mechanisms of resistance, resistance monitoring schemes that exist in different international settings, global responses to the challenge of resistance, and prospects for future treatment regimens in the 21st century.

US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

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Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

2013-12-01

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

Global nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use for agriculture production in the past half century: shifted hot spots and nutrient imbalance

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Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin

2017-03-01

In addition to enhancing agricultural productivity, synthetic nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) fertilizer application in croplands dramatically alters global nutrient budget, water quality, greenhouse gas balance, and their feedback to the climate system. However, due to the lack of geospatial fertilizer input data, current Earth system and land surface modeling studies have to ignore or use oversimplified data (e.g., static, spatially uniform fertilizer use) to characterize agricultural N and P input over decadal or century-long periods. In this study, we therefore develop global time series gridded data of annual synthetic N and P fertilizer use rate in agricultural lands, matched with HYDE 3.2 historical land use maps, at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° latitude-longitude during 1961-2013. Our data indicate N and P fertilizer use rates on per unit cropland area increased by approximately 8 times and 3 times, respectively, since the year 1961 when IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) surveys of country-level fertilizer input became available. Considering cropland expansion, the increase in total fertilizer consumption is even larger. Hotspots of agricultural N fertilizer application shifted from the US and western Europe in the 1960s to eastern Asia in the early 21st century. P fertilizer input shows a similar pattern with an additional current hotspot in Brazil. We found a global increase in fertilizer N / P ratio by 0.8 g N g-1 P per decade (p human impacts on agroecosystem functions in the long run. Our data can serve as one of critical input drivers for regional and global models to assess the impacts of nutrient enrichment on climate system, water resources, food security, etc. Datasets available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.863323.

Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

2013-01-01

Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

Introduction to global analysis minimal surfaces in Riemannian manifolds

CERN Document Server

Moore, John Douglas

2017-01-01

During the last century, global analysis was one of the main sources of interaction between geometry and topology. One might argue that the core of this subject is Morse theory, according to which the critical points of a generic smooth proper function on a manifold M determine the homology of the manifold. Morse envisioned applying this idea to the calculus of variations, including the theory of periodic motion in classical mechanics, by approximating the space of loops on M by a finite-dimensional manifold of high dimension. Palais and Smale reformulated Morse's calculus of variations in terms of infinite-dimensional manifolds, and these infinite-dimensional manifolds were found useful for studying a wide variety of nonlinear PDEs. This book applies infinite-dimensional manifold theory to the Morse theory of closed geodesics in a Riemannian manifold. It then describes the problems encountered when extending this theory to maps from surfaces instead of curves. It treats critical point theory for closed param...

Global Inequality: An Introduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michelle Bata

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Global inequality has been little analyzed by sociologists despite their claim to be the scienti?c experts most in charge of the study of human inequalities and social strati?cation. Most undergraduate courses on social inequalities study race, class and gender without ever acknowledging that the greatest inequalities are between those individuals and households that live in developed versus less developed societies. The amount of international inequality has vastly outweighed within country inequalities since at least the 1870s when a wave of economic globalization under the Pax Britannica increased average wages in the core while leaving most of the periphery and the semiperiphery at subsistence levels. Increasing inequality was one of the most important consequences of nineteenth century globalization, and this fact is pregnant with importance for those who seek to understand what the consequences of twentieth century globalization may be. Resistance to global capitalism and attacks on symbols of power are likely to increase, just as they did in the decades following the great expansion of trade and investment in the last decades of the nineteenth century. Research into the causes of increasing inequalities is thus extremely important for social scientists, policy makers and global citizens who need to understand how the world-system works in order to change it.

Isolating the Meteorological Impact of 21st Century GHG Warming on the Removal and Atmospheric Loading of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter Pollution at Global Scale

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Xu, Yangyang; Lamarque, Jean-François

2018-03-01

Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses health threats to human population. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5%-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause of the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Our results suggest climate change impact needs to be accounted for to define the future emission standards necessary to meet air quality standard.

Gender and globalization. A century in retrospect.

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Chinkin, C

2000-01-01

In the past, power structures of the nation-State have been organized around patriarchal assumptions, granting men monopoly over power, authority, and wealth. A number of structures have been erected to achieve this imbalance, which have disguised its inequity by making it appear as natural and universal. However, with globalization, this centralization of power within the Sovereign State has been fragmented. Although globalization opens up new spaces by weakening the nation-State, subsequently making possible the undermining of traditional gender hierarchies and devising new bases for gender relations, the reality that the State is no longer the sole institution that can define identity and belonging within it has denied women the space to assert their own claims to gendered self-determination. In this regard, globalization has impacted upon gender relations in complex and contradictory ways. This paper discusses such impacts of globalization on gender relations. Overall, it has become apparent that forms of inequality still exist regardless of a State's prevailing political ideology. Their manifestations may differ, but the reality of women's subordination remains constant.

The National Space Biomedical Research Institute's education and public outreach program: Working toward a global 21st century space exploration society

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MacLeish, Marlene Y.; Thomson, William A.; Moreno, Nancy P.

2011-05-01

Space Exploration educators worldwide are confronting challenges and embracing opportunities to prepare students for the global 21st century workforce. The National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI), established in 1997 through a NASA competition, is a 12-university consortium dedicated to space life science research and education. NSBRI's Education and Public Outreach Program (EPOP) is advancing the Institute's mission by responding to global educational challenges through activities that: provide teacher professional development; develop curricula that teach students to communicate with their peers across the globe; provide women and minority US populations with greater access to, and awareness of science careers; and promote international science education partnerships. A recent National Research Council (NRC) Space Studies Board Report, America's Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Program with National Needs, acknowledges that "a capable workforce for the 21st century is a key strategic objective for the US space program… (and that) US problems requiring best efforts to understand and resolve…are global in nature and must be addressed through mutual worldwide action". [1] This sentiment has gained new momentum through a recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) report, which recommends that the life of the International Space Station be extended beyond the planned 2016 termination. [2] The two principles of globalization and ISS utility have elevated NSBRI EPOP efforts to design and disseminate science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) educational materials that prepare students for full participation in a globalized, high technology society; promote and provide teacher professional development; create research opportunities for women and underserved populations; and build international educational partnerships. This paper describes select EPOP projects and makes the case for using innovative, emerging information

Maximum weight of greenhouse effect to global temperature variation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Xian; Jiang, Chuangye

2007-01-01

Full text: The global average temperature has risen by 0.74 0 C since the late 19th century. Many studies have concluded that the observed warming in the last 50 years may be attributed to increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But some scientists have a different point of view. Global climate change is affected not only by anthropogenic activities, but also constraints in climate system natural factors. How much is the influencing weight of C02's greenhouse effects to the global temperature variation? Does global climate continue warming or decreasing in the next 20 years? They are two hot spots in global climate change. The multi-timescales analysis method - Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is used to diagnose global annual mean air temperature dataset for land surface provided by IPCC and atmospheric content of C02 provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) during 1881-2002. The results show that: Global temperature variation contains quasi-periodic oscillations on four timescales (3 yr, 6 yr, 20 yr and 60 yr, respectively) and a century-scale warming trend. The variance contribution of IMF1-IMF4 and trend is 17.55%, 11.34%, 6.77%, 24.15% and 40.19%, respectively. The trend and quasi-60 yr oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent; C02's greenhouse effect on global temperature variation is mainly century-scale trend. The contribution of C02 concentration to global temperature variability is not more than 40.19%, whereas 59.81% contribution to global temperature variation is non-greenhouse effect. Therefore, it is necessary to re-study the dominant factors that induce the global climate change; It has been noticed that on the periods of 20 yr and 60 yr oscillation, the global temperature is beginning to decreased in the next 20 years. If the present C02 concentration is maintained, the greenhouse effect will be too small to countercheck the natural variation in global climate cooling in the next 20

Basic status of uranium mine production at the beginning of the new century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan Chenglong

2005-01-01

At the beginning of the new century, the global uranium mine production declined slightly, the spot uranium price was close to or slightly higher than that of the last century. The uranium consumption in global nuclear electricity generation does not fluctuate greatly, remains stable as a whole. Although certain accidents have taken place during the period of uranium mine production, uranium production remains stable, uranium's demand and supply remain balanced basically. In the global uranium mine production at the beginning of the new century, production from hard rock uranium mines still plays the leading role, and production from in-situ leachable sandstone-type uranium mines increases by a small margin and makes up one fifth of the total global uranium mine production. Several transnational uranium industry companies have become the main stockholders of low cost uranium production centers all around the world. Most mining uranium deposits and uranium production centers have centralized in a few countries. The globalized distribution of uranium resources during the progress of the world's economy globalization has taken shape in the uranium industry. (authors)

[Chronic non-communicable diseases: a global epidemic of the 21st century].

Science.gov (United States)

Andersen, Karl; Gudnason, Vilmundur

2012-11-01

Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the cause of 86% of all deaths in the EU and 65% of deaths worldwide. A third of these deaths occur before the age of sixty years. The NCDs affect 40% of the adult population of the EU and two thirds of the population reaching retirement age suffers from two or more NCDs. The NCDs are a global epidemic challenging economic growth in most countries. According to the WHO, NCDs are one of the major threats to worldwide social and economic development in the 21st century. The problem is of great concern to the international community and was discussed at a High level meeting at the UN General Assembly in September 2011. In this paper we review the epidemic of NCDs both from a national and international perspective. We discuss the causes and consequences. In a second review paper we reflect on the political health policy issues raised by the international community in order to respond to the problem. These issues will become a major challenge for social and economic development in most countries of the world in the coming decades.

Vision of energy supply in the 21st century: managing the global bonfire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.B.

1999-01-01

Humans have lit a vast carbon-based bonfire that has fueled the world's economic and industrial development for the last 200 years. In that time, the impact of emissions into the atmosphere has become measurable, and has triggered debates on global warming and climate change as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gases. Growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use all the energy sources available to us in the 21st Century, to successfully manage and preserve the environment. Consistent with the need for continued human and economic growth and reduced emissions, we must use non-carbon sources for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels. Nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extending energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide an economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation. To illustrate these impacts we adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. We estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon based energy sources on atmospheric CO 2 concentration for the 21st Century. To stabilize CO 2 concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing about 30-40% of all the noncarbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century, and still keep the people of the world and their economic future moving and growing. The key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants becomes clear, whether or not the current worldwide value (∼7-10%) or a growing share of the energy market is assumed. We note that in the future, nuclear

Global optimization and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cacuci, D.G.

1990-01-01

A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints

An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Mapping the global health employment market: an analysis of global health jobs.

Science.gov (United States)

Keralis, Jessica M; Riggin-Pathak, Brianne L; Majeski, Theresa; Pathak, Bogdan A; Foggia, Janine; Cullinen, Kathleen M; Rajagopal, Abbhirami; West, Heidi S

2018-02-27

The number of university global health training programs has grown in recent years. However, there is little research on the needs of the global health profession. We therefore set out to characterize the global health employment market by analyzing global health job vacancies. We collected data from advertised, paid positions posted to web-based job boards, email listservs, and global health organization websites from November 2015 to May 2016. Data on requirements for education, language proficiency, technical expertise, physical location, and experience level were analyzed for all vacancies. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the aforementioned job characteristics. Associations between technical specialty area and requirements for non-English language proficiency and overseas experience were calculated using Chi-square statistics. A qualitative thematic analysis was performed on a subset of vacancies. We analyzed the data from 1007 global health job vacancies from 127 employers. Among private and non-profit sector vacancies, 40% (n = 354) were for technical or subject matter experts, 20% (n = 177) for program directors, and 16% (n = 139) for managers, compared to 9.8% (n = 87) for entry-level and 13.6% (n = 120) for mid-level positions. The most common technical focus area was program or project management, followed by HIV/AIDS and quantitative analysis. Thematic analysis demonstrated a common emphasis on program operations, relations, design and planning, communication, and management. Our analysis shows a demand for candidates with several years of experience with global health programs, particularly program managers/directors and technical experts, with very few entry-level positions accessible to recent graduates of global health training programs. It is unlikely that global health training programs equip graduates to be competitive for the majority of positions that are currently available in this field.

Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics

Science.gov (United States)

Pasricha, Gunisha; Mishra, Akhilesh C.; Chakrabarti, Alok K.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Pasricha et al. (2012) Comprehensive global amino acid sequence analysis of PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1 viruses and the Influenza A virus subtypes responsible for the 20th‐century pandemics. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 497–505. Background  PB1F2 is the 11th protein of influenza A virus translated from +1 alternate reading frame of PB1 gene. Since the discovery, varying sizes and functions of the PB1F2 protein of influenza A viruses have been reported. Selection of PB1 gene segment in the pandemics, variable size and pleiotropic effect of PB1F2 intrigued us to analyze amino acid sequences of this protein in various influenza A viruses. Methods  Amino acid sequences for PB1F2 protein of influenza A H5N1, H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2 subtypes were obtained from Influenza Research Database. Multiple sequence alignments of the PB1F2 protein sequences of the aforementioned subtypes were used to determine the size, variable and conserved domains and to perform mutational analysis. Results  Analysis showed that 96·4% of the H5N1 influenza viruses harbored full‐length PB1F2 protein. Except for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, all the subtypes of the 20th‐century pandemic influenza viruses contained full‐length PB1F2 protein. Through the years, PB1F2 protein of the H1N1 and H3N2 viruses has undergone much variation. PB1F2 protein sequences of H5N1 viruses showed both human‐ and avian host‐specific conserved domains. Global database of PB1F2 protein revealed that N66S mutation was present only in 3·8% of the H5N1 strains. We found a novel mutation, N84S in the PB1F2 protein of 9·35% of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 influenza viruses. Conclusions  Varying sizes and mutations of the PB1F2 protein in different influenza A virus subtypes with pandemic potential were obtained. There was genetic divergence of the protein in various hosts which highlighted the host‐specific evolution of the virus

Smart Social Networking: 21st Century Teaching and Learning Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Boholano, Helen B.

2017-01-01

Education in the 21st century highlights globalization and internationalization. Pre-service teachers in the 21st century are technology savvy. To effectively engage and teach generation Z students, preservice teachers will help the educational system meet this requirement. The educational systems must be outfitted with a prerequisite of ICT…

A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

Science.gov (United States)

Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

2015-05-01

In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

Approaches to Building Global Strategic Deterrence System after 2021

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitaliy V. Kabernik

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.

Approaches to Building Global Strategic Deterrence System after 2021

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vitaliy V. Kabernik

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21 century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.

The Long Twentieth Century and Barriers to China's Hegemonic Accession

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Gulick

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Giovanni Arrighi's The Long Twentieth Century is an almost unfathomably ambitious andcomplex work. Its monumentality derives from Arrighi 's conviction that the best way to handicapthe possible futures of the world capitalist geo-economy is to analyze the structural evolution ofthis global system, an evolution spanning more than five centuries; the genius of the work rests inthe distinctive approach that Arrighi takes. At the core of his approach is the identification ofthose long-term trends and accreted characteristics - one might call them "systemiccontradictions" - that promise to send the world capitalist geo-economy in a radically differentdevelopmental direction as US hegemony wanes. Arrighi 's assessment of these contradictionscompel him to make a provocative suggestion: in all likelihood, no singular concentration of stateand economic power possesses the territorial scale or the organizational capacities required tolead the global system through another round of restructuring and expansion. Properly framed,this illuminating insight could serve as the starting point for a theoretical exploration of thesocio-ecological constraints to global capitalist reproduction, but such is a journey (mostly nottaken by Arrighi in The Long Twentieth Century. In fact, to the degree that he subsequentlycontemplates the prospect of a China-centered reconstitution of the world geo-economy, Arrighimarginalizes the question of global systemic contradictions altogether.

Fossil fuels in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Lincoln, Stephen F

2005-12-01

An overview of the importance of fossil fuels in supplying the energy requirements of the 21st century, their future supply, and the impact of their use on global climate is presented. Current and potential alternative energy sources are considered. It is concluded that even with substantial increases in energy derived from other sources, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for much of the 21st century and the sequestration of CO2 will be an increasingly important requirement.

A Critical Feminist and Race Critique of Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century"

Science.gov (United States)

Moeller, Kathryn

2016-01-01

Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-first Century" documents the foreboding nature of rising wealth inequality in the twenty-first century. In an effort to promote a more just and democratic global society and rein in the unfettered accumulation of wealth by the few, Piketty calls for a global progressive annual tax on corporate…

About role of 'Nuclear sciences' and other trends of scientific and technological works in innovation development of phenomena and globalization processes in XX and XXI centuries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arifov, P.V.; Azimova, D.S.; Trostyanskij, D.V.; Umarov, A.G.

2005-01-01

It is concluded, that just successful development of scientific and technological works in the field 'Nuclear Sciences' results economy advantages for USA and some West countries compared with USSR and the rest countries of East Europe. In the following decades this advantage allows to a leader-countries develop with success principally new trends of scientific, technological workings in the a wide-scale sphere of natural, technical, biomedical, and other related sciences. Here soon the USA gap from other world countries was achieved. In the field of fundamental sciences there are such fields: Computer Sciences (1940 and then), Space Sciences (1950 and then), Life Sciences (1960 and then), Computer tomography Sciences (1970 and then). Material Researches Sciences (1980 and then), Internet Sciences (1994 and then), Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (1999 and then). In the end of XX century these advantages allow to USA to realize two known global innovation initiatives having National character: Ballistic Missile Defense - from 1983, Internet - from 1994, and to declare the third one - targeting to the XXI century - Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies - from 1999. It is noted, that due to unexampled high temps of development of phenomena and globalization in the XXI century the specialists and professionals of Uzbekistan in the shortest time have to learn the newest world experience in order to ensure worthy status for the young independent state in the world developed countries commonwealth in new age

Global analysis of muon decay measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gagliardi, C.A.; Tribble, R.E.; Williams, N.J.

2005-01-01

We have performed a global analysis of muon decay measurements to establish model-independent limits on the space-time structure of the muon decay matrix element. We find limits on the scalar, vector, and tensor coupling of right- and left-handed muons to right- and left-handed electrons. The limits on those terms that involve the decay of right-handed muons to left-handed electrons are more restrictive than in previous global analyses, while the limits on the other nonstandard model interactions are comparable. The value of the Michel parameter η found in the global analysis is -0.0036±0.0069, slightly more precise than the value found in a more restrictive analysis of a recent measurement. This has implications for the Fermi coupling constant G F

Floating Migration, Education, and Globalization in the US Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez, Mirerza; Rios-Villarini, Nadjah

2012-01-01

This article follows a research project that collects oral histories of bilingual education teachers from Puerto Rico who migrated to the US Virgin Islands in the late twentieth century. The teachers' oral histories are used as a case study that provides in-depth analysis of competing discourses related to education and globalization in these two…

Global Multimodel Analsysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth Century

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Hazenberg, P.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2013-01-01

During the past decades large-scale models have been developed to simulate global and continental terrestrial water cycles. It is an open question whether these models are suitable to capture hydrological drought, in terms of runoff, on a global scale. A multimodel ensemble analysis was carried out

Global analysis studies and applications

CERN Document Server

Gliklikh, Yuri; Vershik, A

1992-01-01

This volume (a sequel to LNM 1108, 1214, 1334 and 1453) continues the presentation to English speaking readers of the Voronezh University press series on Global Analysis and Its Applications. The papers are selected fromtwo Russian issues entitled "Algebraic questions of Analysis and Topology" and "Nonlinear Operators in Global Analysis". CONTENTS: YuE. Gliklikh: Stochastic analysis, groups of diffeomorphisms and Lagrangian description of viscous incompressible fluid.- A.Ya. Helemskii: From topological homology: algebras with different properties of homological triviality.- V.V. Lychagin, L.V. Zil'bergleit: Duality in stable Spencer cohomologies.- O.R. Musin: On some problems of computational geometry and topology.- V.E. Nazaikinskii, B.Yu. Sternin, V.E.Shatalov: Introduction to Maslov's operational method (non-commutative analysis and differential equations).- Yu.B. Rudyak: The problem of realization of homology classes from Poincare up to the present.- V.G. Zvyagin, N.M. Ratiner: Oriented degree of Fredholm...

Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

OpenAIRE

Walter Labys

2005-01-01

Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Stoffel, Markus; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Beniston, Martin

2014-05-01

The Alps are particularly sensitive to global warming and warmed twice as much as the global average in the recent past. In addition, the Alps and its surroundings are a densly populated areas where society is affected by climate change in many ways, which calls for reliable estimates of future climate change. However, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in future climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. It will be demonstrated that considerable and accelerating changes are not only to be expected with regard to temperature, but also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be effected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will most probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity. More intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential are particularly expected in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500 - 2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic variables and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Acknowledgements: This study has been initiated and is partly funded by

Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T

2013-05-02

A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.

Space activity in the 21 st century forum at unispace III

Science.gov (United States)

Doetsch, Karl H.; Zhdanovich, Olga V.

2000-07-01

During the 21st Century, space activity will have a profound influence on life on Earth and on the development of society. Space activity will touch ever more firmly on the provision of the necessities and qualities of life and will accelerate the movement of nations towards the concept of the global village. A study by Prospective 2100, a group identifying major global trends for the next century, ranked space activity as one of the twelve most important factors for shaping the next century, alongside such items as education, ocean cities, the planetary garden, caring and sharing. The International Space University, ISU, the International Astronautical Federation, IAF, and Prospective 2100 joined forces to study in detail how this influence of space activity would be manifested in the next century. The one-day forum at UNISPACE III was one of a number of international, intercultural and interdisciplinary fora held during the past year to consider what would be the most appropriate space activity for the next century to meet the needs of humanity. The findings and recommendations of the forum are presented in this report.

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

Science.gov (United States)

Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century

OpenAIRE

Hwang, Jackelyn

2016-01-01

Few studies have considered the role of immigration in the rise of gentrification in the late twentieth century. Analysis of U.S. Census and American Community Survey data over 24 years and field surveys of gentrification in low-income neighborhoods across 23 U.S. cities reveal that most gentrifying neighborhoods were “global” in the 1970s or became so over time. An early presence of Asians was positively associated with gentrification; and an early presence of Hispanics was positively associ...

Global Rome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Is 21st-century Rome a global city? Is it part of Europe's core or periphery? This volume examines the “real city” beyond Rome's historical center, exploring the diversity and challenges of life in neighborhoods affected by immigration, neoliberalism, formal urban planning, and grassroots social...... movements. The contributors engage with themes of contemporary urban studies–the global city, the self-made city, alternative modernities, capital cities and nations, urban change from below, and sustainability. Global Rome serves as a provocative introduction to the Eternal City and makes an original...

The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard A. Rosen

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The global future lies before us as a highly uncertain and contested landscape with numerous perils along the way. This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering in quantitative detail four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of enhanced human well-being and environmental resilience—remains an option, and identifies a suite of strategic and value changes for getting there. A fundamental shift in the development paradigm is found to be an urgent necessity for assuring a sustainable future and, as well, a hopeful opportunity for creating a world of enriched lives, human amity, and a healthy ecosphere.

CULTURAL DIVERSITY: A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina LECA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available XXI century is the century of globalization, a century dominated by multinational organizations supremacy which gradually expanded to conquer the world through their products and services. In every industry working professionals need to interact with people from other ethnic and nationals groups, at home, job and around the world. Decisively all meant for companies and organizations, in addition to innovation and development the source of possible conflicts. Therefore what does cultural diversity mean and how it should be managed?

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Energy strategy of the 21st century taking advantage of fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okumura, Norihiro

2002-01-01

There is some general concern that economic development in developing countries will hasten global warning. In terms of reducing CO 2 emissions, fusion will have great potential as a primary energy in the late 21st century according to the results of WING model simulations based on scenario analysis, if the cost of fusion with hydrogen generation would become competitive compared with those of other substitutive energies. However, securing social acceptance is very important to maintain the fossil research funded by the government suffering from cumulative debt. (author)

The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century - A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Richard Kenyon

2016-05-01

Full Text Available How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance.1 A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA, United Kingdom (UK and Zimbabwe. The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2 National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3 Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990-1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence. WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables.In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3-5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990-1999 and 2008 than in the other world

Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobiet, Andreas, E-mail: andreas.gobiet@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Kotlarski, Sven, E-mail: sven.kotlarski@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Beniston, Martin, E-mail: martin.beniston@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland); Heinrich, Georg, E-mail: g.heinrich@uni-graz.at [Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz (Austria); Rajczak, Jan, E-mail: jan.rajczak@env.ethz.ch [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland); Stoffel, Markus, E-mail: markus.stoffel@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Site de Battelle − Bâtiment D, 7, route de Drize − 1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland)

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. - Highlights: • Warming is expected to accelerate throughout the 21st century in the Alpine region. • Seasonal shifts in precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity are expected. • Precipitation and temperature extremes are expected to intensify. • Snow cover

The World Awaits: Globalizing U.S. Education

Science.gov (United States)

Acker, Duane

2007-01-01

Considering the global competitiveness and the global opportunities that graduates face in the twenty-first century, every college and university must prepare its students for their profession, for their business, and, especially, for their life in a global society and economy. Preparation for life in a global society does not just mean learning…

Cultivating Global Competencies in Costa Rica: One Community College's Innovative Approach to Taking Early Childhood Education Global

Science.gov (United States)

Delafield, Julia

2018-01-01

Giving an immersive global experience to preservice early childhood educators lays the foundation for building their global competencies and thereby helping them provide their own students with 21st century skills.

Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts-a snapshot of dissonant ambitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Chen, Claudine; Nabel, Julia; Hare, William; Markmann, Kathleen; Meinshausen, Malte; Macey, Kirsten; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hoehne, Niklas; Krogh Andersen, Katrine

2010-01-01

This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO 2 and CO 2 -equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 deg. C, and even more so for 1.5 deg. C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 deg. C goal is likely to become less feasible.

Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Couverture du livre Land Tenure, Gender, and Globalization : Research and Analysis from Africa. Directeur(s) : Dzodzi Tsikata et Pamela Golah. Maison(s) d'édition : Zubaan, CRDI. 29 août 2009. ISBN : 9788189884727.

Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Bo; Cheng, Lihong

2017-01-01

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. PMID:28081201

Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Xiao

Full Text Available The rise of global value chains (GVCs characterized by the so-called "outsourcing", "fragmentation production", and "trade in tasks" has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014 and Wang et al. (2013 in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics.

Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Hao; Sun, Tianyang; Meng, Bo; Cheng, Lihong

2017-01-01

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called "outsourcing", "fragmentation production", and "trade in tasks" has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics.

Implications of various land use change scenarios on global water scarcity over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Vernon, C. R.; Li, X.; Le Page, Y.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

While the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrological processes (e.g., runoff, peak flow and discharge) and water availability have been extensively researched, the impacts of LULCC on water scarcity has been rarely investigated. Water scarcity, usually defined as the ratio of water demand to available renewable water supply. The involved water demand is an important human-dimension factor, which is affected by both socio-economic conditions (e.g., population, income) as well as LULCC (e.g., the amount of land we dedicate for food, feed, and fuel crops). Recent studies have assessed the combined effects of climate change and human interventions (e.g., dams, water withdrawals and LULCC) on water scarcity, but none to date has focused on the implications of different pathways of LULCC alone on water scarcity. We establish a set of LULCC scenarios under changing climate and socioeconomic pathways using an integrated assessment model - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), which integrates natural systems (e.g., water supply, ecosystems, climate) and human systems (e.g., water demand, land use, economy, food, energy, population). The LULCC scenarios encompass varying degrees of protected areas, different magnitudes of crop/bioenergy production and subsidies, and whether to penalize potential land use emissions from bioenergy production (e.g., loss of wood carbon stock from land conversion). Then we investigate how water scarcity responds to LULCC and how the distribution of global population under severe water stress varies in the 21st century. Preliminary results indicate that the LULCC-induced changes in water scarcity are overall small at the global scale (water stress and population being affected. Findings from this research could be used to inform strategies focused on alleviating water stress around the world.

Global energy / CO2 projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinyak, Y.

1990-09-01

Section headings are: (1) Social and economic problems of the 21 st century and the role of energy supply systems (2) Energy-environment interactions as a central point of energy research activities (3) New ways of technological progress and its impacts on energy demand and supply (4) Long-term global energy projections (5) Comparative analysis of global long-term energy / CO 2 studies (6) Conclusions. The author shows that, in order to alleviate the negative impacts of energy systems on the climate, it will be necessary to undertake tremendous efforts to improve the energy use efficiency, to drastically change the primary energy mix, and, at the same time, to take action to reduce greenhouse emissions from other sources and increase the CO 2 sink through enhanced reforestation. (Quittner)

Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sefidvash, Farhang

1997-01-01

The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

Globalization of nuclear activities and global governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sefidvash, Farhang [Rio Grande do Sul Univ., Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Nuclear

1997-07-01

The safe production of nuclear energy as well as the disarmament of nuclear weapons and the peaceful utilization of nuclear materials resulting from dismantling of such weapons are some of the formidable problems of global governance. The Commission on Global Governance was established in 1992 in the belief that international developments had created a unique opportunity for strengthening global co-operation to meet the challenge of securing peace, achieving sustainable development, and universalizing democracy. Here a summary of their proposals on the globalization of nuclear activities to face challenges of the coming century is given. To follow up their activities by the worlds community in general. The research Centre for Global Governance (RCGG) at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul was established. Already a great number of researchers from many different countries have adhered to the Centre. Here the program of the RCGG is described. (author)

Globalization and Chinese Education in the Early 20th Century

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Paul J.

2013-01-01

With China's growing significance in the global economy ever more evident, studies in recent years have highlighted multiple aspects of China's "Globalization" (or global connections) that predate the contemporary period. This article focuses on educational reform in the late Qing and early Republic as a way of illuminating a significant…

Education as a Factor in Globalization through Academic Mobility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pârgaru Ion

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Globalization is not a new concept, as it would be. It has a torn history of acceptances andrejections, starting with the nineteenth century. Globaphobia and globaphilia are two terms thateloquently justify the pro and anti struggle against this phenomenon, which is not yet understoodby many politicians, but which takes full advantage of it, as economist Guillermo de la Dehesasays. In order to understand the principles of globalization and its effects, we must judge in termsof benefits and losses in the historical and economic context of the last decades, struck by wars, bythe cultural and social decline, by the closure of some states in the communist blocs. It is only afterunderstanding the events that we can dissect what is happening today in Europe and globally. Atthe end of the 20th century and the 21st century, humankind continues globalization on segments,allocating the greatest tribute to education through continuous training, study and practice.

DEVELOPING THE 21ST-CENTURY SOCIAL STUDIES SKILLS THROUGH TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION

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Mohammad Imam FARISI

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration into SS learning is one of the learning innovations in the global-digital era, and powerfully supports the National Council for Social Studies (NCSS as stated in their visions: meaningful, powerful, value-based, challenging, and active. It also strongly supports the development of three core skills of the 21st-century, including learning and innovation skills; information, media and technology skills; life and career skills that developed in partnership with the Partnership Forum for 21st-Century Skills (P21. This paper examines and describes academics evolution toward a commitment and further developments in research; 21stcentury skills map for the SS; and the implications for developing teachers’ competences and teachers’ education curriculum.

Strategic Intelligence in a globalized world in Latin America: Challenges in the XXI century

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Boris Saavedra

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In general, intelligence has been classified as something mysterious due to the historical experiences in Latin America and the general ignorance about the true essence of intelligence as a primary activity of the State. This paper focuses on the analysis of the role of strategic intelligence as a fundamental element of public security and defense policy of a nation in Latin America. The changes occurring at the dawn of this century for the collection and analysis of intelligence are critical. The analysis of power, internet, digital technology, robotics and intelligent computers is responsible for the rapid changes of our history. Strategic Intelligence requires a comprehensive operational reform in five points: 1 Distinction as far as competition of intelligence agencies is concerned. 2 The dependence of the intelligence agencies. 3 Limiting the allocation of responsibility for domestic intelligence. 4 Establishing a coordinating body at the highest level of the State and 5 Effective external controls. These aspects are essential for a strategic intelligence system in line with present and future demands.

21st Century Skills: The Challenges Ahead

Science.gov (United States)

Rotherham, Andrew J.; Willingham, Daniel

2009-01-01

The skills that students need for the 21st century are not really new, assert Rotherham and Willingham. Critical thinking, problem solving, information literacy, and global awareness have been important to human progress throughout history, at least among the elites in different societies. What is new is the extent to which individual and…

Ecological network analysis on global virtual water trade.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhifeng; Mao, Xufeng; Zhao, Xu; Chen, Bin

2012-02-07

Global water interdependencies are likely to increase with growing virtual water trade. To address the issues of the indirect effects of water trade through the global economic circulation, we use ecological network analysis (ENA) to shed insight into the complicated system interactions. A global model of virtual water flow among agriculture and livestock production trade in 1995-1999 is also built as the basis for network analysis. Control analysis is used to identify the quantitative control or dependency relations. The utility analysis provides more indicators for describing the mutual relationship between two regions/countries by imitating the interactions in the ecosystem and distinguishes the beneficiary and the contributor of virtual water trade system. Results show control and utility relations can well depict the mutual relation in trade system, and direct observable relations differ from integral ones with indirect interactions considered. This paper offers a new way to depict the interrelations between trade components and can serve as a meaningful start as we continue to use ENA in providing more valuable implications for freshwater study on a global scale.

Global/local methods research using a common structural analysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Ransom, Jonathan B.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.; Thompson, Danniella M.

1991-01-01

Methodologies for global/local stress analysis are described including both two- and three-dimensional analysis methods. These methods are being developed within a common structural analysis framework. Representative structural analysis problems are presented to demonstrate the global/local methodologies being developed.

Twenty First Century Education: Transformative Education for Sustainability and Responsible Citizenship

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, David V. J.

2016-01-01

Many ministries of education focus on twenty-first century education but unless they are looking at this topic through a sustainability lens, they will be missing some of its most important elements. The usual emphasis on developing skills for employability in the current global economy begs the question whether the global economy is itself…

21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

Science.gov (United States)

Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

2012-04-01

We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

Vaccines Through Centuries: Major Cornerstones of Global Health

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Inaya eHajj Hussein

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Multiple cornerstones have shaped the history of vaccines, which may contain live attenuated viruses, inactivated organisms/viruses, inactivated toxins, or merely segments of the pathogen that could elicit an immune response.The story began with Hippocrates 400 B.C. with his description of mumps and diphtheria. No further discoveries were recorded until 1100 A.D. when the smallpox vaccine was described. During the 18th century, vaccines for cholera and yellow fever were reported and Edward Jenner, the father of vaccination and immunology, published his work on small pox.The 19th century was a major landmark, with the Germ Theory of disease of Louis Pasteur, the discovery of the germ tubercle bacillus for tuberculosis by Robert Koch, and the isolation of pneumococcus organism by George Miller Sternberg. Another landmark was the discovery of diphtheria toxin by Emile Roux and its serological treatment by Emil Von Behring and Paul Ehrlih. In addition, Pasteur was able to generate the first live attenuated viral vaccine against rabies. Typhoid vaccines were then developed, followed by the plague vaccine of Yersin. At the beginning of World War I, the tetanus toxoid was introduced, followed in 1915 by the pertussis vaccine. In 1974, The Expanded Program of Immunization was established within the WHO for BCG, Polio, DTP, measles, yellow fever and hepatitis B. The year 1996 witnessed the launching of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative. In 1988, the WHO passed a resolution to eradicate polio by the year 2000 and in 2006; the first vaccine to prevent cervical cancer was developed. In 2010 The Decade of vaccines was launched, and on April 1st 2012, the United Nations launched the shot@Life campaign. In brief, the armamentarium of vaccines continues to grow with more emphasis on safety, availability and accessibility. This mini review highlights the major historical events and pioneers in the course of development of vaccines, which have eradicated

Mining education in the XXI century: global challenges and prospects

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О. И. Казанин

2017-06-01

Full Text Available An analysis of development prospects for the world mining industry is presented, requirements to mining technologies are formulated, as well as key trends of technologic development in the mineral resources complex. The paper demonstrates the role of mining industry and professional education as essential components of sustainable territorial development. Global challenges have been formulated, which must be taken into account when forming general approaches to the development of mining education. Distinctions of mining education in Russia, Germany, USA and other leading mining countries have been analyzed. Professional standards for mining engineers have been reviewed for different countries, along with their relation to educational standards. It has been shown, what role professional communities play in the development of professional education and stimulation of continuous professional development of mining engineers. Authors point out the need for international integration in the issues of training and continuous professional development of mining specialists, as well as international accreditation of educational programs for mining engineers and their certification. Information is presented on international organizations, performing the function of international accreditation of engineering educational programs, history of their establishment and role within the context of economic globalization. The paper contains examples of successful international cooperation and modern integration processes among universities, aimed at unification of requirements and improvement of existing systems of training and continuous professional development of mining engineers.

Impact and prevention on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Heon Ryeol

2003-11-01

This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

Conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization

CERN Document Server

Pardalos, Panos

2001-01-01

There has been much recent progress in global optimization algo­ rithms for nonconvex continuous and discrete problems from both a theoretical and a practical perspective. Convex analysis plays a fun­ damental role in the analysis and development of global optimization algorithms. This is due essentially to the fact that virtually all noncon­ vex optimization problems can be described using differences of convex functions and differences of convex sets. A conference on Convex Analysis and Global Optimization was held during June 5 -9, 2000 at Pythagorion, Samos, Greece. The conference was honoring the memory of C. Caratheodory (1873-1950) and was en­ dorsed by the Mathematical Programming Society (MPS) and by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Activity Group in Optimization. The conference was sponsored by the European Union (through the EPEAEK program), the Department of Mathematics of the Aegean University and the Center for Applied Optimization of the University of Florida, by th...

Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.

2009-01-01

Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats. Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers. Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions. Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential

The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment; MNV

1997-01-01

This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

Global Peace through the Global University System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cengiz Hakan AYDIN

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Utopia is defined in Encarta Dictionary as “an ideal and perfect place or state, where everyone lives in harmony and everything is for the best.” Developments all around the world especially in the last decade have supported the idea that global peace is nothing but just a utopian dream. However, for centuries a group of believers have always been in search of global peace via different means. This book, titled as “Global Peace through the Global University System”, can be considered as one of the artifacts of this search.Actually this book is a collection of papers presented in working conference on the Global University System (GUS hosted by the University of Tampere, Finland in 1999. The main goal of the conference was bringing international experts to share their philosophy, past and present experiences about the GUS. The conference was held by the University of Tampere because UNESCO has an agreement with the University to establish the UNESCOChair in Global e-Learning.

Computational studies of global nuclear energy development under the assumption of the world's heterogeneous development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egorov, A.F.; Korobejnikov, V.V.; Poplavskaya, E.V.; Fesenko, G.A.

2013-01-01

Authors study the mathematical model of Global nuclear energy development until the end of this century. For comparative scenarios analysis of transition to sustainable nuclear energy systems, the models of heterogeneous world with an allowance for specific national development are under investigation [ru

21st Century Global Freshwater Security: Can it Exist and Can Scientists Communicate the Challenges?

Science.gov (United States)

Famiglietti, J. S.

2015-12-01

Climate models and decades of satellite data are converging on the unfortunate reality that Earth's water cycle is changing. Paleoclimate indicators remind us that this has always been the case. Freshwater is constantly being exchanged among the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice reservoirs, while on land, patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flooding and drought are shifting. The evolving water cycle of the 21st century will likely be stronger, more variable, and will result in broad swaths of mid-latitude drying, accelerated by the depletion of the world's major groundwater aquifers. A well-defined geography of freshwater 'haves' and 'have-nots' is clearly emerging. What does water sustainability mean under such dynamic climate and hydrologic conditions, in particular when coupled with future projections of population growth? How will water managers cope with these new normals, and how will food and energy production be impacted? The responsibility of communicating this changing global water landscape falls squarely on the shoulders of the academic-research community, yet the challenge of doing so is daunting. In this Special Lecture I will review what our latest research tells us, and I will share my personal experiences with science communication and water diplomacy.

Remembering Florence Nightingale's panorama: 21st-century nursing--at a critical crossroads.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Deva-Marie

2010-12-01

Florence Nightingale lived and worked in response to her times--yet also ahead of her time. She insisted on pursuing a career even though her wealthy family could have provided her with a lifetime of leisure. Because she was a woman, this choice to work outside her home was all the more unusual. Nightingale was also a vanguard woman because she chose nursing, a role that was considered the work of desperate, impoverished women who lived on the street like prostitutes. In addition to these unusual choices, Nightingale's career was unique beyond anyone in her time. She was one of the most prolific authors of the 19th century. In addition to being an early role model for nursing, Nightingale was also a leader in several other fields emerging in her time, including social work, statistical analysis, and print journalism. As a global thinker, Nightingale would have loved 21st century. She noted cultural, social, and economic concerns, particularly in relation to health and to the discipline of nursing. She urged nurses to progress in their practice and to think outside their official domains. She responded to the culture of the 19th century by envisioning what could be changed. Working with her talents and available resources, she evolved the health care culture of the 20th century and beyond. She called all of this work "Health-Nursing." As we remember and further study the extraordinary panorama that is our Nightingale legacy, we are creating and shaping our relevant, emerging 21st century nursing practice.

Global Uranium And Thorium Resources: Are They Adequate To Satisfy Demand Over The Next Half Century?

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, I. B.

2012-04-01

This presentation will consider the adequacy of global uranium and thorium resources to meet realistic nuclear power demand scenarios over the next half century. It is presented on behalf of, and based on evaluations by, the Uranium Group - a joint initiative of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, of which the author is a Vice Chair. The Uranium Group produces a biennial report on Uranium Resources, Production and Demand based on information from some 40 countries involved in the nuclear fuel cycle, which also briefly reviews thorium resources. Uranium: In 2008, world production of uranium amounted to almost 44,000 tonnes (tU). This supplied approximately three-quarters of world reactor requirements (approx. 59,000 tU), the remainder being met by previously mined uranium (so-called secondary sources). Information on availability of secondary sources - which include uranium from excess inventories, dismantling nuclear warheads, tails and spent fuel reprocessing - is incomplete, but such sources are expected to decrease in market importance after 2013. In 2008, the total world Reasonably Assured plus Inferred Resources of uranium (recoverable at less than 130/kgU) amounted to 5.4 million tonnes. In addition, it is clear that there are vast amounts of uranium recoverable at higher costs in known deposits, plus many as yet undiscovered deposits. The Uranium Group has concluded that the uranium resource base is more than adequate to meet projected high-case requirements for nuclear power for at least half a century. This conclusion does not assume increasing replacement of uranium by fuels from reprocessing current reactor wastes, or by thorium, nor greater reactor efficiencies, which are likely to ameliorate future uranium demand. However, progressively increasing quantities of uranium will need to be mined, against a backdrop of the relatively small number of producing facilities around the world, geopolitical uncertainties and

Global Food Security Support Analysis Data (GFSAD) Crop Mask 2010 Global 1 km V001

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Global Food Security Support Analysis Data (GFSAD) Crop Mask Global 1 kilometer...

Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)

2011-07-15

This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.

Nonwestern Periphery and its Paradoxes: Reflections for Struggles in the 21st Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Saggioro Garcia

2017-08-01

Full Text Available What has historically been the role of the nonwestern semiperiphery (what was it expected to do and what did it really do and how has this role changed in recent years? In their article “Moving toward Theory for the 21st Century: The Centrality of Nonwestern Semiperiphery to World Ethnic/Racial Inequality”, Wilma Dunaway and Donald Clelland provide important contributions to the efforts to rethink global inequalities and the potential to transform the capitalist world-system. Presenting a wealth of data compiled in graphs and tables, the article aims to decenter analysis of global ethnic/racial inequality by bringing the nonwestern semiperiphery to the foreground. In their examination of the rise of the nonwestern semiperiphery, the authors question the popular “global apartheid model”, which identifies “white supremacy” as the sole cause of global ethnic/racial inequality. Their goal is to demonstrate that the nonwestern semiperiphery intensifies and exacerbates ethnic and racial inequalities in the world further by adopting political and economic mechanisms to exploit territories and workers both within and beyond their borders.

Greenhouse gas emissions increase global warming

OpenAIRE

Mohajan, Haradhan

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the greenhouse gas emissions which cause the global warming in the atmosphere. In the 20th century global climate change becomes more sever which is due to greenhouse gas emissions. According to International Energy Agency data, the USA and China are approximately tied and leading global emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. Together they emit approximately 40% of global CO2 emissions, and about 35% of total greenhouse gases. The developed and developing industrialized co...

Convex analysis and global optimization

CERN Document Server

Tuy, Hoang

2016-01-01

This book presents state-of-the-art results and methodologies in modern global optimization, and has been a staple reference for researchers, engineers, advanced students (also in applied mathematics), and practitioners in various fields of engineering. The second edition has been brought up to date and continues to develop a coherent and rigorous theory of deterministic global optimization, highlighting the essential role of convex analysis. The text has been revised and expanded to meet the needs of research, education, and applications for many years to come. Updates for this new edition include: · Discussion of modern approaches to minimax, fixed point, and equilibrium theorems, and to nonconvex optimization; · Increased focus on dealing more efficiently with ill-posed problems of global optimization, particularly those with hard constraints;

Identifying interprofessional global health competencies for 21st-century health professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Jogerst, Kristen; Callender, Brian; Adams, Virginia; Evert, Jessica; Fields, Elise; Hall, Thomas; Olsen, Jody; Rowthorn, Virginia; Rudy, Sharon; Shen, Jiabin; Simon, Lisa; Torres, Herica; Velji, Anvar; Wilson, Lynda L

2015-01-01

At the 2008 inaugural meeting of the Consortium of Universities for Global Health (CUGH), participants discussed the rapid expansion of global health programs and the lack of standardized competencies and curricula to guide these programs. In 2013, CUGH appointed a Global Health Competency Subcommittee and charged this subcommittee with identifying broad global health core competencies applicable across disciplines. The purpose of this paper is to describe the Subcommittee's work and proposed list of interprofessional global health competencies. After agreeing on a definition of global health to guide the Subcommittee's work, members conducted an extensive literature review to identify existing competencies in all fields relevant to global health. Subcommittee members initially identified 82 competencies in 12 separate domains, and proposed four different competency levels. The proposed competencies and domains were discussed during multiple conference calls, and subcommittee members voted to determine the final competencies to be included in two of the four proposed competency levels (global citizen and basic operational level - program oriented). The final proposed list included a total of 13 competencies across 8 domains for the Global Citizen Level and 39 competencies across 11 domains for the Basic Operational Program-Oriented Level. There is a need for continued debate and dialog to validate the proposed set of competencies, and a need for further research to identify best strategies for incorporating these competencies into global health educational programs. Future research should focus on implementation and evaluation of these competencies across a range of educational programs, and further delineating the competencies needed across all four proposed competency levels. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forced Migration and Global Responsibility for Health

Science.gov (United States)

Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Razum, Oliver

2017-01-01

Forced migration has become a world-wide phenomenon in the past century, affecting increasing numbers of countries and people. It entails important challenges from a global health perspective. Leppold et al have critically discussed the Japanese interpretation of global responsibility for health in the context of forced migration. This commentary complements their analysis by outlining three priority areas of global health responsibility for European Union (EU) countries. We highlight important stages of the migration phases related to forced migration and propose three arguments. First, the chronic neglect of the large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the discourses on the "refugee crisis" needs to be corrected in order to develop sustainable solutions with a framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Second, protection gaps in the global system of protection need to be effectively closed to resolve conflicts with border management and normative global health frameworks. Third, effective policies need to be developed and implemented to meet the health and humanitarian needs of forced migrants; at the same time, the solidarity crisis within the EU needs to be overcome. These stakes are high. EU countries, being committed to global health, should urgently address these areas. PMID:28812838

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

Science.gov (United States)

Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

Thermal power - emerging scenario in the 21st Century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saran, Keshav

2000-01-01

The developing countries have to ensure that their development in the new millennium is supported by a strong infrastructure to meet the challenges of this century where survival would be of the fittest. In India, globalization of economy will be the main thrust in this century. Today self reliance and determination is needed to develop, adopt and implement new technologies which are more efficient and eco-friendly. The economy of the country calls for a higher rate of growth in the power infrastructure. To ensure the momentum of 7 per cent overall growth in the economy, India need about 12-14 per cent growth in power generation. In power sector, selection of resources, systems, fuel options and appropriate technology would be major determinants that will decide the success for sustained development in the new century

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Methodological considerations for global analysis of cellular FLIM/FRET measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Adbul Rahim, Nur Aida; Pelet, Serge; Kamm, Roger D.; So, Peter T. C.

2012-02-01

Global algorithms can improve the analysis of fluorescence energy transfer (FRET) measurement based on fluorescence lifetime microscopy. However, global analysis of FRET data is also susceptible to experimental artifacts. This work examines several common artifacts and suggests remedial experimental protocols. Specifically, we examined the accuracy of different methods for instrument response extraction and propose an adaptive method based on the mean lifetime of fluorescent proteins. We further examined the effects of image segmentation and a priori constraints on the accuracy of lifetime extraction. Methods to test the applicability of global analysis on cellular data are proposed and demonstrated. The accuracy of global fitting degrades with lower photon count. By systematically tracking the effect of the minimum photon count on lifetime and FRET prefactors when carrying out global analysis, we demonstrate a correction procedure to recover the correct FRET parameters, allowing us to obtain protein interaction information even in dim cellular regions with photon counts as low as 100 per decay curve.

The climate of the 21. century: what we know and what we do not know

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berger, A.; Loutre, M.F. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

2005-07-01

Observations clearly show a significant warming over the whole 20 century. This warming has reached about 1 C in 1998, the warmest year ever observed over the last 1000 years. In parallel, CO{sub 2} has increased from 280 to 377 ppmv (reached in 2004) since the Industrial Revolution, at a rate 100 times faster than over the last 20 000 years. Models and statistical analysis show that there is a very high probability that the warming of the last decades result from greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration increase. Before, solar activity, volcanic activity and natural variability of the climate system itself resulting from ocean - atmosphere - sea-ice interactions are playing an important role in the inter annual to decadal variability of climate. Uncertainties in the explanation of the 20 century global warming still exist related mainly to clouds, the hydrological cycle, the oceanic circulation, the chemistry and the greenhouse gas cycle. But comparison of model results with present-day climatic observations and past climate reconstructions allows to conclude that the models capture relatively well both the natural climatic variations and the impact of man activities on climate (GHG and aerosols). This makes possible to draw conclusions from modeling results obtained for the next century. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1,4 to 5,8 C over the period 1990 to 2100 and sea level to rise by 9 to 88 cm for the full range of the IPCC scenarios. (authors)

The climate of the 21. century: what we know and what we do not know

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, A.; Loutre, M.F.

2005-01-01

Observations clearly show a significant warming over the whole 20 century. This warming has reached about 1 C in 1998, the warmest year ever observed over the last 1000 years. In parallel, CO 2 has increased from 280 to 377 ppmv (reached in 2004) since the Industrial Revolution, at a rate 100 times faster than over the last 20 000 years. Models and statistical analysis show that there is a very high probability that the warming of the last decades result from greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration increase. Before, solar activity, volcanic activity and natural variability of the climate system itself resulting from ocean - atmosphere - sea-ice interactions are playing an important role in the inter annual to decadal variability of climate. Uncertainties in the explanation of the 20 century global warming still exist related mainly to clouds, the hydrological cycle, the oceanic circulation, the chemistry and the greenhouse gas cycle. But comparison of model results with present-day climatic observations and past climate reconstructions allows to conclude that the models capture relatively well both the natural climatic variations and the impact of man activities on climate (GHG and aerosols). This makes possible to draw conclusions from modeling results obtained for the next century. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1,4 to 5,8 C over the period 1990 to 2100 and sea level to rise by 9 to 88 cm for the full range of the IPCC scenarios. (authors)

GLOBAL CRISIS’ IMPACT UPON THE EMPLOYED NUMBER IN HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

MARIAN ZAHARIA; ANIELA BALACESCU; RODICA MANUELA GOGONEA

2014-01-01

TThe globalization, complex interconnection process of the economies of states, is a reality of the XXI century. However, at the end of the first decade of this century, besides the positive effects of this process, due to the economic interconnections created, it has favored also a rapid propagation of a negative economic phenomenon: the global economic crisis. Its impact significantly influenced the hospitality industry, important component of modern economies. This paper examines over a pe...

Global earthquake fatalities and population

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

2013-01-01

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

Climate: Into the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Burroughs, William

2003-08-01

Toward the end of the twentieth century, it became evident to professionals working within the meterological arena that the world's climate system was showing signs of change that could not be adequately explained in terms of natural variation. Since that time there has been an increasing recognition that the climate system is changing as a result of human industries and lifestyles, and that the outcomes may prove catastrophic to the world's escalating population. Compiled by an international team formed under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Climate: Into the 21st Century features an unrivalled collection of essays by the world's leading meteorological experts. These fully integrated contributions provide a perspective of the global climate system across the twentieth century, and describe some of the most arresting and extreme climatic events and their effects that have occurred during that time. In addition, the book traces the development of our capabilities to observe and monitor the climate system, and outlines our understanding of the predictability of climate on time-scales of months and longer. It concludes with a summary of the prospects for applying the twentieth century climate experience in order to benefit society in the twenty-first century. Lavishly illustrated in color, Climate is an accessible acccount of the challenges that climate poses at the start of the twenty-first century. Filled with fascinating facts and diagrams, it is written for a wide audience and will captivate the general reader interested in climate issues, and will be a valuable teaching resource. William Burroughs is a successful science author of books on climate, including Weather (Time Life, 2000), and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach (2001), Does the Weather Really Matter? (1997) and The Climate Revealed (1999), all published by Cambridge University Press.

Global Invasion History of the Tropical Fire Ant, Solenopsis geminata: A Stowaway on the First Global Trade Routes

Science.gov (United States)

Biological invasions are largely thought to be contemporary, having recently increased sharply in the wake of globalization. However, human commerce had already become global in scope by the mid-16th century, when the Spanish connected the New World with Europe and Asia via their Manila galleon and ...

X-ray fluorescence analysis of yellow pigments in altarpieces by Valencian artists of the XV and XVI centuries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrero, J.L.; Roldan, C.; Ardid, M.; Navarro, E.

1999-01-01

XRF analysis has allowed a quick and precise detection and identification of the inorganic elements that compose the yellow pigments in altarpieces of the XV and XVI centuries painted by the Valencian artists Miguel Alcaniz, Vicente Macip, Juan de Juanes, Hernando Yanez de la Almedina and Hernando Llanos. The analyses have been carried out with an XRF portable system that consists of a tube of X-rays and detectors of Si(Li) and cadmium zinc telluride. This system has enabled a non-aggressive and non-destructive analysis of many pieces at the Museo de Bellas Artes of Valencia (Spain). Among the yellow pigments we have identified a pigment composed by lead and tin oxides named lead-tin yellow (Pb 2 SnO 4 ), frequently used in European paintings from the XIV century until the first half of the XVIII century. This fact demonstrates the influence of elements and pictorial techniques from Europe to the region of Valencia

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

Science.gov (United States)

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21. century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; Noblet-Ducoudre, N. de; Kato, E.

2014-01-01

Bio-geophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO 2 simulations for the 21. century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO 2 -fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. (authors)

Five Ideas for 21st Century Math Classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Gasser, Kenneth W.

2011-01-01

This article draws on the 21st Century Skills Movement and the successful teaching practices of Asian schools in order to provide five suggestions that secondary math teachers can incorporate into their classrooms in order to promote the skill set necessary for an ever-changing global economy. Problem-based instruction, student-led solutions, risk…

Religious Globalisms in the Post-Secular Age

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wilson, E.K.; B. Steger, Manfred

2013-01-01

This article explores the interconnections between mounting global crises and the emergence of the post-secular. Specifically, the article argues that the post-secular is both a description of and a response to shifting global realities in the twenty-first century. It describes the crisis of secular

From Public to Private Standards for Tropical Commodities: A Century of Global Discourse on Land Governance on the Forest Frontier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derek Byerlee

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Globalization and commodity exports have a long history in affecting land use changes and land rights on the tropical forest frontier. This paper reviews a century of social and environmental discourse around land issues for four commodities grown in the humid tropics—rubber, cocoa, oil palm and bananas. States have exercised sovereign rights over land and forest resources and the outcomes for deforestation and land rights of existing users have been quite varied depending on local institutional contexts and political economy. In the current period of globalization, as land use changes associated with tropical commodities have accelerated, land issues are now at center stage in the global discourse. However, efforts to protect forests and the rights of local communities and indigenous groups continue to be ad hoc and codification of minimum standards and their implementation remains a work in progress. Given a widespread failure of state directed policies and institutions to curb deforestation and protect land rights, the private sector, with the exception of the rubber industry, is emphasizing voluntary standards to certify sustainability of their products. This is an important step but expectations that they will effectively address concerns about the impact of tropical commodities expansion might be too high, given their voluntary nature, demand constraints, and the challenge of including smallholders. It is also doubtful that private standards can more than partially compensate for long standing weaknesses in land governance and institutions on the forest frontier.

The Theoretical Aspects of the Development of Global Production Networks and Value Chains: the New Paradigm of Globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cherkas Nataliia I.

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at systematizing the contemporary perceptions of the changing paradigms of globalization and international competition as a result of the spread of global networks and value chains. The development of global value chains (GVC occurred as a result of two distributions of globalization: (1 global competition is manifested at the level of sectors and companies (from the mid-nineteenth century (2 the concept of trade in tasks arises (at the end of XX century. The publication analyzes the impact of globalization on the international competitiveness of both the EU and the developing countries in the trade of final products and tasks. The model takes into consideration differences in wages, technology gap and trade costs, and provides for assessing the comparative advantages of individual sectors or segments of GVC. Features of the conception of global production networks have been identified as: «imports for production» and «imports for exports», which define international competitiveness on the basis of creation of the intrinsic value added. It is determined that the competitiveness of the economy is determined by the country’s positions in the GVC, and the increase in productivity of companies depends on their involvement in the segments (tasks with a high level of value added.

Nursing in the era of globalisation: challenges for the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Alcione Leite

2008-01-01

The purpose of this paper was to reflect about issues related to the processes of globalization and the global impacts on health, pointing out some challenges for Nursing in the twenty-first century. In this sense, the author outlines the forms and trends of globalization in the contemporary world, and the drastic impacts on human health and environment. To respond to the challenges of the globalized world, some ways are indicated, among which, the strengthening of nursing discipline stands out, together with some guidelines for education, research and Nursing care, in a local and global scope.

Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

2010-01-01

in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Triumph of the Industrial-Consumer Paradigm and English as the Global Language

Science.gov (United States)

Spring, Joel

2007-01-01

This article considers the role of English as the global language within the industrial-consumer paradigm. In the 21st century, the English language plays a different function in the global economy than it did during the 19th century when it was used as an instrument of cultural imperialism. Today, English serves as a vehicle for participation in…

The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook

OpenAIRE

Bakkes JA; Woerden JW van; Alcamo J; Berk MM; Bol P; Born GJ van den; Brink BJE ten; Hettelingh JP; Langeweg F; Niessen LW; Swart RJ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenia; MNV

1997-01-01

This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional...

Global Citizenship Incorporated: Competing Responsibilities in the Education of Global Citizens

Science.gov (United States)

Hartung, Catherine

2017-01-01

Interest in the education of young people to be 'responsible global citizens' has grown exponentially since the turn of the century, led by increasingly diverse networks of sectors, including government, community, business and philanthropy. These networks now have a significant influence on education policy and practice, indicative of wider…

CO2 and solar radiation: cause of global warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayona Gabriel; Garcia, Yuri C.; Sarmiento Heiner R

2010-01-01

A cause-effect relationship between global temperature as a climatic change indicator and some of the main forcing mechanisms (Atmospheric CO 2 concentration, solar radiation and volcanic activity) are analyzed in this paper through time series analysis for the 1610-1990 AD period comparing trends and variability for the frequency spectrums. Temperature seems to fit the CO 2 trend for the last century, but we found no cause-effect relationship for this interval. The frequency analysis shows a correlation between radiation and temperature for a period of 22 years. Volcanism presents an inverse relationship with temperature better seen at a decadal scale.

Space Observations for Global Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rasool, S. I.

1991-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

Safety-oriented global analysis of reactor dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belhadj, M.; Aldemir, T.

1992-01-01

It is well known that the asymptotic solutions of the non-linear systems encountered in reactor dynamics can change from stable to periodic or from periodic to chaotic with a very small change in system parameters and/or initial conditions. In that respect, determination of the domains of attraction (DOAs) in the state-space that contains the asymptotic solutions and the identification of the basins of attraction (BOAs) and lead to these DOAs usually requires a global analysis of reactor dynamics (as opposed to a local analysis through perturbation theory). From the standpoint of safety, the DOAs indicate whether the reactor behavior remains within the imposed constraints or not, and the BOAs show which initial conditions lead to safe operation. Due to the lack of a general theory, often the only feasible method for the global analysis of nonlinear systems is the direct integration of governing equations. However, direct integration can be computationally prohibitive, particularly if there is uncertainty on the values of the system parameters to be used in the analysis, and/or asymptotic system behavior is chaotic. In a recent study, a global analysis algorithm was presented to determine the structure of DOAs (and their probability distribution when there is uncertainty on the system parameters) more quickly than by direct integration. This paper shows how the new algorithm can be expanded to determine the BOAs of reactor dynamics equations as well as their DOAs

Global warming

CERN Document Server

Hulme, M

1998-01-01

Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

The Diversity of Cloud Responses to Twentieth Century Sea Surface Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Silvers, Levi G.; Paynter, David; Zhao, Ming

2018-01-01

Low-level clouds are shown to be the conduit between the observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and large decadal fluctuations of the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance. The influence of low-level clouds on the climate feedback is shown for global mean time series as well as particular geographic regions. The changes of clouds are found to be important for a midcentury period of high sensitivity and a late century period of low sensitivity. These conclusions are drawn from analysis of amip-piForcing simulations using three atmospheric general circulation models (AM2.1, AM3, and AM4.0). All three models confirm the importance of the relationship between the global climate sensitivity and the eastern Pacific trends of SST and low-level clouds. However, this work argues that the variability of the climate feedback parameter is not driven by stratocumulus-dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.

Current issues and challenges in global analysis of parton distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tung, Wu-Ki

2007-01-01

A new implementation of precise perturbative QCD calculation of deep inelastic scattering structure functions and cross sections, incorporating heavy quark mass effects, is applied to the global analysis of the full HERA I data sets on NC and CC cross sections, in conjunction with other experiments. Improved agreement between the NLO QCD theory and the global data sets are obtained. Comparison of the new results to that of previous analysis based on conventional zero-mass parton formalism is made. Exploratory work on implications of new fixed-target neutrino scattering and Drell-Yan data on global analysis is also discussed. (author)

An Analysis of Yip's Global Strategy Model, Using Coca-Cola ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Analysis of the selected business cases suggest a weak fit between the Yip model of a truly Global strategy ... like Coca-Cola in the beverage industry for effective implementation of a global strategy. ... Keywords: Global Strategy, Leadership.

"Global Cities" and "Globalization" in East Asia: Empirical Realities and Conceptual Questions

OpenAIRE

Smith, David; Timberlake, Michael

2002-01-01

For most of the Twentieth Century, East Asia was among the least urbanized parts of the world; now it is a region where cities are growing the most rapidly and becoming increasingly important centers regionally and in terms of the global urban hierarchy. Tokyo is unquestionably a key "global city," with Hong Kong probably following not far behind, and Seoul and Taipei also moving up in the world city ranks as crucial national articulates of highly successful newly industrialized countries (N...

A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health.

Science.gov (United States)

Martens, Pim; Akin, Su-Mia; Maud, Huynen; Mohsin, Raza

2010-09-17

It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Is globalization healthy: a statistical indicator analysis of the impacts of globalization on health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martens Pim

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract It is clear that globalization is something more than a purely economic phenomenon manifesting itself on a global scale. Among the visible manifestations of globalization are the greater international movement of goods and services, financial capital, information and people. In addition, there are technological developments, more transboundary cultural exchanges, facilitated by the freer trade of more differentiated products as well as by tourism and immigration, changes in the political landscape and ecological consequences. In this paper, we link the Maastricht Globalization Index with health indicators to analyse if more globalized countries are doing better in terms of infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, and adult mortality rate. The results indicate a positive association between a high level of globalization and low mortality rates. In view of the arguments that globalization provides winners and losers, and might be seen as a disequalizing process, we should perhaps be careful in interpreting the observed positive association as simple evidence that globalization is mostly good for our health. It is our hope that a further analysis of health impacts of globalization may help in adjusting and optimising the process of globalization on every level in the direction of a sustainable and healthy development for all.

Health Paradigm Shifts in the 20th Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose Miguel DeAngulo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The application of systems theory and the study of complexity to medicine and human health allows for a more comprehensive understanding and a more holistic view of what it means to be human. Such application overcomes the limitations of the traditional, fragmented understanding of phenomena and problems based on the mechanistic or Newtonian worldview. It recognizes that phenomena are interrelated, and that individual parts cannot be understood by only focusing on the analysis of their individual qualities. Rather, the individual parts can only be understood in relation to the whole and by being analyzed in the context of their interaction with the whole. The door is opened to previously unimagined models of thinking.In the 20th Century there have been shifts in the paradigms that have governed medicine and human health in the modern western world. There has been a shift from the focus on specific biological analysis and pathological diagnostics to complex human interactions with the environment and with sociopolitical and economic processes. There are complex models of systems in immunology, in neuroscience, and in genetics, as well as complex ways of understanding interactions as in epidemic modeling, in social media technologies, socioeconomic factors, and artificial intelligence.In this paper we describe three paradigms of the health-disease process that in some degree correspond to the historical development of modern medicine and healthcare over the previous century. The oldest paradigm focused on specific disease mechanisms and treatment. This gave way to paradigms that historically were broader and more inclusive, such as “international health”. The international health paradigm focused primarily on the control of epidemics across national borders and considered government as the only health actor. However, this perspective has come to be seen as excessively reductionist and excluded many critical components essential to a robust

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during

The management century.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiechel, Walter

2012-11-01

In 1886, addressing the nascent American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Henry R. Towne proposed that "the management of works" be considered a modern art--thereby heralding the Management Century, when management as we know it came into being and shaped the world in which we work. Kiechel, a past editorial director of Harvard Business Publishing, elucidates the three eras that punctuate this period: the years leading up to World War II, during which scientific exactitude gave wings to a new managerial elite; the early postwar decades, managerialism's apogee of self-confidence and a time when wartime principles of strategy were adapted, sometimes ruthlessly, to the running of companies; and the 1980s to the present, years that saw fast-moving changes, disequilibrium, and a servitude to market forces but also ushered in globalism, unprecedented innovation, and heightened expectations about how workers are to be treated. Along the way he examines the contributions of thinkers such as Frederick Taylor, Elton Mayo, Peter Drucker, and Michael Porter. What lies ahead? Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the 21st-century company, Kiechel posits, is to truly free the spark of human imagination from the organization's tidal pull toward the status quo. There's almost always a better way, he concludes--and management will continue to seek it.

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

2014-12-01

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

LBA Regional Monthly Climatology for the 20th Century (New et al.)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set is a subset of "Global Monthly Climatology for the 20th Century (New et al.)" (2000a). This subset characterizes mean monthly surface climate...

Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

1990-01-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete

Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.

1991-01-01

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete. 32 refs.; 16 figs

Dynamical Analysis of the Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. A. Tenreiro Machado

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

An integrated analysis of dry-wet variability in western China for the last 4-5 centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Weihong; Lin, Xiang

2009-09-01

The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long (centennial) to short (inter-decadal) timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70-80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.

LBA Regional Monthly Climatology for the 20th Century (New et al.)

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set is a subset of "Global Monthly Climatology for the 20th Century (New et al.)" (2000a). This subset characterizes mean monthly surface climate over the...

Flows method in global analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duong Minh Duc.

1994-12-01

We study the gradient flows method for W r,p (M,N) where M and N are Riemannian manifold and r may be less than m/p. We localize some global analysis problem by constructing gradient flows which only change the value of any u in W r,p (M,N) in a local chart of M. (author). 24 refs

Globalization of healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-01

Globalization-the increasing transnational circulation of money, goods, people, ideas, and information worldwide-is generally recognized as one of the most powerful forces shaping our current and future history. How is it affecting healthcare, and in that context, what is the purpose and significance of Global Advances in Health and Medicine (GAHM), publisher of this journal? Our goal is not homogenization but rather to provide an opportunity for integration, convergence, and collaboration across cultures. By respecting and conserving the richness and diversity of each new medicine, we embrace globalization. Globalization is of course not new; it began in the Renaissance and particularly with the 15th- and 16th-century voyages of exploration by Columbus, Magellan, and others. Since the beginning of time, there have been interactions and exchanges among different peoples and cultures. However, the current magnitude of globalization is unprecedented and yet still expanding rapidly.

Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

1994-01-01

Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. R. Boysen

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

Temporal and spatial variability of global water balance

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2013-01-01

An analysis of simulated global water-balance components (precipitation [P], actual evapotranspiration [AET], runoff [R], and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) for the past century indicates that P has been the primary driver of variability in R. Additionally, since about 2000, there have been increases in P, AET, R, and PET for most of the globe. The increases in R during 2000 through 2009 have occurred despite unprecedented increases in PET. The increases in R are the result of substantial increases in P during the cool Northern Hemisphere months (i.e. October through March) when PET increases were relatively small; the largest PET increases occurred during the warm Northern Hemisphere months (April through September). Additionally, for the 2000 through 2009 period, the latitudinal distribution of P departures appears to co-vary with the mean P departures from 16 climate model projections of the latitudinal response of P to warming, except in the high latitudes. Finally, changes in water-balance variables appear large from the perspective of departures from the long-term means. However, when put into the context of the magnitudes of the raw water balance variable values, there appears to have been little change in any of the water-balance variables over the past century on a global or hemispheric scale.

Sustainable Nuclear Energy for the 21st Century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-09-01

Concerns over energy resource availability, energy security and climate change suggest an important role for nuclear power in supplying sustainable energy in the 21st century. The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was initiated in 2000 by a resolution of the IAEA General Conference to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. It is a mechanism for IAEA Member States that have joined the project as INPRO members to collaborate on topics of joint interest. By 2010, INPRO membership had grown to 30 countries and the European Commission. The results of INPRO's activities, however, are made available to all IAEA Member States

Variability and trends in global drought

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2015-01-01

Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

Analysis and Research on Several Global Subdivision Grids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SONG Shuhua

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In order to solve the problem that lacking of an unified organization frame about global remote sensing satellite image data, this paper introduces serval global subdivision grids as the unified organization frame for remote sensing image. Based on the characteristics of remote sensing image data, this paper analyzes and summarizes the design principles and difficulties of the organization frame. Based on analysis and comparison with these grids, GeoSOT is more suitable as the unified organization frame for remote sensing image. To provide a reference for the global remote sensing image organization.

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Glenn A.; Warner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

World population is projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, yet nearly one-fifth of the world's current 7.2 billion live without access to electricity. Though universal energy access is desirable, a significant reduction in fossil fuel usage is required before mid-century if global warming is to be limited to <2 °C. Here we quantify the changes in the global energy mix necessary to address population and climate change under two energy-use scenarios, finding that renewable energy production (9% in 2014) must comprise 87–94% of global energy consumption by 2100. Our study suggests >50% renewable energy needs to occur by 2028 in a <2 °C warming scenario, but not until 2054 in an unconstrained energy use scenario. Given the required rate and magnitude of this transition to renewable energy, it is unlikely that the <2 °C goal can be met. Focus should be placed on expanding renewable energy as quickly as possible in order to limit warming to 2.5–3 °C. - Highlights: •World population growth, energy scarcity, and climate are interrelated issues. •Non-renewable energy sources are projected to peak around mid-century. •Renewable energy must provide 50+% of total energy by 2028 to maintain <2 °C warming goal. •Renewable energy must provide 87+% of total energy by 2100 regardless of climate concerns.

Cultural imperialism or ”soft imperial power” in the XXIst century global order1 (Imperialismul cultural sau „puterea imperială soft” în ordinea globală a secolului XXI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mădălina Virginia ANTONESCU

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Although some of the authors of the relevant literature believe that the phrase “cultural imperialism” is a subtle, “soft” form of domination, which does not involve an open, visible or military political control (in realistic terms, other scholars maintain that this is one of the methods most commonly used by imperial policy in today’s globalist age. The connection of this term with paradigms such as “the clash of civilisations”, “the end of history” or “complex interdependencies” provides a multi-layered perspective on the postmodern world at the beginning of 21st century, a world where soft power is exercised at global, regional, transnational or infra-local level, within an economic, social and cultural framework that has not yet been regulated as such by the classical institutions of the Westphalian order.

High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

2013-11-15

Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Science.gov (United States)

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

Global meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Caldas

Full Text Available Transcriptomics meta-analysis aims at re-using existing data to derive novel biological hypotheses, and is motivated by the public availability of a large number of independent studies. Current methods are based on breaking down studies into multiple comparisons between phenotypes (e.g. disease vs. healthy, based on the studies' experimental designs, followed by computing the overlap between the resulting differential expression signatures. While useful, in this methodology each study yields multiple independent phenotype comparisons, and connections are established not between studies, but rather between subsets of the studies corresponding to phenotype comparisons. We propose a rank-based statistical meta-analysis framework that establishes global connections between transcriptomics studies without breaking down studies into sets of phenotype comparisons. By using a rank product method, our framework extracts global features from each study, corresponding to genes that are consistently among the most expressed or differentially expressed genes in that study. Those features are then statistically modelled via a term-frequency inverse-document frequency (TF-IDF model, which is then used for connecting studies. Our framework is fast and parameter-free; when applied to large collections of Homo sapiens and Streptococcus pneumoniae transcriptomics studies, it performs better than similarity-based approaches in retrieving related studies, using a Medical Subject Headings gold standard. Finally, we highlight via case studies how the framework can be used to derive novel biological hypotheses regarding related studies and the genes that drive those connections. Our proposed statistical framework shows that it is possible to perform a meta-analysis of transcriptomics studies with arbitrary experimental designs by deriving global expression features rather than decomposing studies into multiple phenotype comparisons.

Forecasting for the second half-century of nuclear energy using. Projection and strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-03-01

This report presents a professional, global and unrestricted overview of the nuclear energy development and using, and the worldwide related research. The document also presents the projection and strategies for the second half-century

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

Border Crossing in Contemporary Brazilian Culture: Global Perspectives from the Twenty-First Century Literary Scene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cimara Valim de Melo

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract: This paper investigates the process of internationalisation of Brazilian literature in the twenty-first century from the perspective of the publishing market. For this, we analyse how Brazil has responded to globalisation and what effects of cultural globalisation can be seen in the Brazilian literary scene, focusing on the novel. Observing the movement of the novelists throughout the globe, the reception of Brazilian literature in the United Kingdom and the relations between art and the literary market in Brazil, we intend to provoke some reflections on Brazilian cultural history in the light of the twenty-first century.

Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

1977-01-01

In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

Global histories, vernacular science, and African genealogies; or, Is the history of science ready for the world?

Science.gov (United States)

Tilley, Helen

2010-03-01

Scholars in imperial and science studies have recently begun to examine more systematically the different ways knowledge systems around the world have intersected. This essay concentrates on one aspect of this process, the codification of research into "primitive" or "indigenous" knowledge, especially knowledge that was transmitted orally, and argues that such investigations were a by-product of four interrelated phenomena: the globalization of the sciences themselves, particularly those fields that took the earth and its inhabitants as their object of analysis; the professionalization of anthropology and its growing emphasis on studying other cultures' medical, technical, and natural knowledge; the European push, in the late nineteenth century, toward "global colonialism" and the ethnographic research that accompanied colonial state building; and, finally, colonized and marginalized peoples' challenges to scientific epistemologies and their paradoxical call that scientists study their knowledge systems more carefully. These phenomena came together on a global scale in the decades surrounding the turn of the twentieth century to produce a subgenre of research within the sciences, here labeled "vernacular science," focused explicitly on "native" knowledge.

Simulation analysis of globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, S.J.; Hiroshi, K. [Hiroshima Inst. of Tech., Graduate School of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Dept. of In formation and Intelligent Systems Engineering, Hiroshima (Japan)

2004-07-01

This paper focuses on the optimal analysis of world-wide recycling activities associated with managing the logistics and production activities in global manufacturing whose activities stretch across national boundaries. Globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies consist of the home country and two free trading economic blocs, NAFTA and ASEAN, where significant differences are found in production and disassembly cost, tax rates, local content rules and regulations. Moreover an optimal analysis of globally integrated value-chain was developed by applying simulation optimization technique as a decision-making tool. The simulation model was developed and analyzed by using ProModel packages, and the results help to identify some of the appropriate conditions required to make well-performed logistics and recycling plans in world-wide collaborated manufacturing environment. (orig.)

A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw

2008-01-01

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters

Developing the 21st-Century Social Studies Skills through Technology Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Farisi, Mohammad Imam

2016-01-01

Recently, technology has become an educational necessity in global-digital era. Facing these phenomena, social studies (SS) should make innovations related to changes of 21st-century skills and learning paradigm, which is characterized by the principles of disclosure of information, computing, automation, and communication. Technology integration…

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Steinacher

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Identification and comparison of lead white of the 15-th century Gdansk panel paintings by neutron activation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olszewska-Swietlik, J.; Panczyk, E.

2005-01-01

The lead white has been used in painting science the middle ages both as a priming ground and pigment. Purity of the lead white is directly connected with the lead purification methods that have undergone considerable changes throughout centuries. Marked progress in this respect was noted in the 19-th century. That is why determination of such elements a Ag, Hg, Zn, Cu, Co, Cr, Ba and Sb in the lead white gives reliable information regarding the age of the painting in question. Analyses of samples of the lead white taken from genuine 15-th century panel paintings representing the so-called Pomeranian school were carried out using instrumental neutron activation analysis technique. The total of 32 elements were determined in those samples; also the comparison of the data for Malopolska and Silesian schools was performed. (author)

Adult Learning Development in Poland in the 20th Century

Science.gov (United States)

Boiarska-Khomenko, Anna

2017-01-01

The article presents a retrospective analysis of adult learning development in Poland in the 20th century. Based on the study and analysis of historical and pedagogical literature, normative documents of the official bodies of Polish government, the periodical press of the 20th century, several stages of adult learning development, in the…

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Political Ecology of Globality and Difference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escobar, Arturo

2008-01-01

This article is about politics of difference and sameness that accompany the enactment of globality. Is is about the dynamic of the imperial globality and its global regime of coloniality as one of the most salient features of the modern colonial world system in the early twenty first century. It is also, in a literal sense, about the geopolitics of knowledge. It develops its argument, in part, borrowing from Joan Martinez Alier's definition of political ecology as the study of ecological distribution conflicts. It argues that a Eurocentric globality has an obligatory counterpart in the systematic act of encubrimiento del otro. Kinds of global coloniality Six concepts are key to understand this argument: place, capital, nature, development e identity, Colombia is a theater of this imperial globality

The global and Canadian energy outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, M.J.

2006-01-01

The global energy situation is rapidly changing. Global oil and gas trade is increasing, in an environment of rising prices, higher costs, greater environmental concerns, and growing security uncertainties. While predictions of shortages through depletion of oil and gas reserves are unfounded, the world must adapt to higher prices and changing trade patterns, as conventional reserves are increasingly being replaced un-conventional resources. Canada, drawing upon its vast natural resources and technological innovation, is positioned to be an even more important global energy leader in the 21st century. (author)

Globalization of Healthcare

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Globalization—the increasing transnational circulation of money, goods, people, ideas, and information worldwide—is generally recognized as one of the most powerful forces shaping our current and future history. How is it affecting healthcare, and in that context, what is the purpose and significance of Global Advances in Health and Medicine (GAHM), publisher of this journal? Our goal is not homogenization but rather to provide an opportunity for integration, convergence, and collaboration across cultures. By respecting and conserving the richness and diversity of each new medicine, we embrace globalization. Globalization is of course not new; it began in the Renaissance and particularly with the 15th- and 16th-century voyages of exploration by Columbus, Magellan, and others. Since the beginning of time, there have been interactions and exchanges among different peoples and cultures. However, the current magnitude of globalization is unprecedented and yet still expanding rapidly. PMID:24278809

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Neutron activation analysis of sixteenth- and seventeenth-century European blue glass trade beads from the eastern Great Lakes area of North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hancock, R.G.V.; Chafe, A.; Kenyon, I.

1994-01-01

Sixteenth- and seventeenth-century European blue glass trade beads from aboriginal sites in the eastern Great Lakes area of North America have been analysed non-destructively using low neutron dose instrumental neutron activation analysis, so that the beads could be returned to their keepers. Dark blue (cobalt-coloured) beads are readily separable from turquoise (copper-coloured) beads. Differences in the chemistries of the turquoise blue beads appear to be useful in separating glass beads from the two centuries. Low calcium, sixteenth-century turquoise beads tend to disintegrate by a leaching of the alkali metals. (Author)

Global processing takes time: A meta-analysis on local-global visual processing in ASD.

Science.gov (United States)

Van der Hallen, Ruth; Evers, Kris; Brewaeys, Katrien; Van den Noortgate, Wim; Wagemans, Johan

2015-05-01

What does an individual with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) perceive first: the forest or the trees? In spite of 30 years of research and influential theories like the weak central coherence (WCC) theory and the enhanced perceptual functioning (EPF) account, the interplay of local and global visual processing in ASD remains only partly understood. Research findings vary in indicating a local processing bias or a global processing deficit, and often contradict each other. We have applied a formal meta-analytic approach and combined 56 articles that tested about 1,000 ASD participants and used a wide range of stimuli and tasks to investigate local and global visual processing in ASD. Overall, results show no enhanced local visual processing nor a deficit in global visual processing. Detailed analysis reveals a difference in the temporal pattern of the local-global balance, that is, slow global processing in individuals with ASD. Whereas task-dependent interaction effects are obtained, gender, age, and IQ of either participant groups seem to have no direct influence on performance. Based on the overview of the literature, suggestions are made for future research. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Evolution of Management Theory within 20 Century: A Systemic Overview of Paradigm Shifts in Management

OpenAIRE

Khorasani, Sasan Torabzadeh; Almasifard, Maryam

2017-01-01

Significant progress in civilization of human being has been made over 20century. Advance technology; globalization and revolution of communication are the main outcomes of this development. However, it is obvious that these achievements have been significantly influenced by evolution of management theories. The paradigm shift from classical management to modern management can be clustered into several phases. This paper presents an overview of evolution of management theory within 20 century...

Fostering Students' 21st Century Skills through Project Oriented Problem Based Learning (POPBL) in Integrated STEM Education Program

Science.gov (United States)

Wan Husin, Wan Nor Fadzilah; Mohamad Arsad, Nurazidawati; Othman, Oziah; Halim, Lilia; Rasul, Mohamad Sattar; Osman, Kamisah; Iksan, Zanaton

2016-01-01

Students nowadays need to be equipped with twenty first century skills in order to ensure their competitiveness in this era of globalization, especially in the science and technology sector. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the changes of 21st century skills among students after participating in an integrated Science, Technology,…

An Overview of the Chinese Agenda: Global Sustainable Peace and Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans Nibshan Seesaghur

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Our globalised world is prone to complex challenges affecting mankind. As an ancient saying goes- China is an old civilised nation endowed with a new mission. However, this new mission here is referred to as the “Chinese Dream” and can only be accomplished in a peaceful environment. The concept of peaceful rise is perhaps the most important Chinese foreign policy intended to shape the global architecture. The Chinese agenda of global sustainable peace and development is delicately interwoven with the peaceful rise concept, which can be plainly interpreted as an adherence to existing international norms and an obligation to respecting prevailing global norms. This paper investigates China’s agenda of peaceful rise and development to provide an in-depth and evidencebased analysis of the new policy thinking and its tenets. The study revealed that China tries to manifest the policy thinking in five major foreign policies namely: (1 Peaceful Development; (2 New Model of Major-country Relations; (3 Neighbourhood Diplomacy; (4 Cooperation with Developing Countries; and (5 Multilateral Relations. These doctrines have assisted China in establishing itself as a part of the international society and an integral part of the global system. This paper also examines the role of China at the United Nations, which is a priority for China’s foreign strategy in the new century. Moreover, this paper will discuss the challenges China will have to face in developing new standards on global governance for the 21st century. Finally, the paper will assess whether the new mission, “Chinese Dream”, is on the right path to accomplish sustainable peace and development.

GLOBALIZATION AS A POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PHENOMENON

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Victoria Flores Trujillo

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Globalization is defined as a process that integrates knowledge worldwide, has its historical reference on changes in the ways processes, methods and information are addressed; documented its inception in the late twentieth century, Castells, M. (2001 beyond the discrepancy about whether it is a product of technological development or an inevitable evolution of capitalism, research arises from the formulation of the following questions: How important is the study of globalization ?, What has produced important contributions in the scientific community about globalization? And What are the perspectives or approaches addressed? . This work aims to show how the scientific community has produced knowledge about this phenomenon addressing the political, economic and social approaches: From the economic point of view reconfigures how to address the processes of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services in the world, permeating this way all international economic events. From the political point of view, besides the redistribution of emerging geopolitical blocs, it establishes a new category of state, transnational state. From the social point of view, it shows evidence of the negative effects of globalization on resizing the category personal, local or regional or even in global risk-Global group. The research is documentary literature, their contribution to social science evidence to characterize globalization as political, economic and social phenomenon of the century that permeates all areas of study applied.

Globalization and the Hotel Industry in Slovakia

OpenAIRE

ALENA DUBCOVÁ; JOZEF PETRIKOVIE; LUCIA ŠOLCOVÁ

2013-01-01

The development of tourism in the world and thus in Slovakia is influenced by globalization, which is one of the landmarks of the 21st century. Globalization starts when the internationalization of economic life develops in t he space across the planet. Closely related to internationalization, it enforces the strict territ orial framework that later grew into a wider world of space. The development of globali...

21st-Century Literacies, Critical Media Pedagogies, and Language Arts

Science.gov (United States)

Morrell, Ernest

2013-01-01

In the second decade of the 21st century, information has been globalized, digitized, and sped up to move at the speed of thought. Being literate in this new world means programming personal websites, sending e-mails from mobile devices and spending hours communicating via virtual social networks. Our students are products of this world. However,…

Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

Science.gov (United States)

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

2014-01-01

Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

Globalização social: desafio do século XXI GLOBALIZATION SOCIAL: CHALLENGE OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antônio Carlos dos Santos

2010-08-01

Full Text Available A crítica de muitos à globalização é conseqüência dos rumos que ela está tomando. Embora a globalização seja um processo dinâmico em andamento, o seu avanço tem ocorrido de forma desequilibrada, gerando instabilidade política, econômica e social em várias regiões do planeta. O presente trabalho procura, de forma teórica, mostrar a falta da globalização social como um dos fatores que tem provocado desequilíbrio na dinâmica do processo de globalização. Pelo lado econômico, observa-se que a globalização ocorre de forma acelerada e já alcança os mais distantes pontos da face da Terra, ao passo que, pelo lado social, observa-se que a globalização está ausente em algumas regiões e, em outro tanto, ela ocorre de forma lenta e sem muito interesse. De nada vale os benefícios da globalização econômica se não existir a globalização social. Esse e o desafio do século XXI.The criticism of many of globalization is a consequence of directions it is taking. While globalization is a dynamic process in progress, its progress has occurred so unbalanced, creating politicalinstability, economic and social development in various regions of the planet. This paper demand, so theoretically, show the lack of social globalisation as one of the factors that have causedimbalance in the dynamics of the globalization process. On the economic side there is that globalization occurs so rapidly and have reached the most distant points of the face of theEarth, while the social side, there is that globalisation is absent in some regions, and in another both, it happens so slowly and without much interest. It is not worth the benefits of economicglobalization if there is the social globalisation. That and the challenge of the twenty-first century.

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Singularities: Technoculture, Transhumanism, and Science Fiction in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Raulerson, Joshua Thomas

2010-01-01

A spectre is haunting contemporary technoculture: the spectre of Singularity. Ten years into a century thus far characterized chiefly by the catastrophic failure of global economic and political systems, deepening ecological anxieties, and slow-motion social crisis, the only sector of our collective cultural myth of Progress still vibrantly intact…

Globalization and international trade in the twenty-first century: opportunities for and threats to the health sector in the south.

Science.gov (United States)

Baris, E; McLeod, K

2000-01-01

Globalization and international trade are important forces at the turn of the century. This article explores how freer international trade will affect developing countries that are net importers of health care goods and services. Four commodities are used as special cases for discussion: pharmaceuticals, health care technologies, pesticides, and tobacco and its related products. The authors discuss the role of international specialized agencies, such as the World Trade Organization, World Health Organization, and World Bank, that are concerned with international trade and its health and health care consequences, and argue that closer collaboration is required among these agencies if the negative effects of trade liberalization on developing countries are to be mitigated. The authors pose a number of research questions that could help in developing proactive policies for the South on the trade of goods and services with harmful effects on health as well as those with potential health and economic benefits.

A century of trends in adult human height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damsgaard, Camilla Trab; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Molbo, Drude

2016-01-01

the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest...

Smart Social Networking: 21st Century Teaching and Learning Skills

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen B. Boholano

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Education in the 21st century highlights globalization and internationalization. Preservice teachers in the 21st century are technology savvy. To effectively engage and teach generation Z students, preservice teachers will help the educational system meet this requirement. The educational systems must be outfitted with a prerequisite of ICT resources both hardware and software, and curricula must be designed to promote a collaborative learner-centered environment to which students will relate and respond. This study determines the 21st century skills possessed by the pre-service teachers in terms of social networking. Pre-service teachers use computers in very advanced ways, but educators must remember that they still need guidance to use technology safely and effectively. Through social media the pre-service teachers can use a multitude of applications, including Web 2.0, for their projects. Smart social networking requires critical-thinking skills and the ability to integrate and evaluate real-world scenarios and authentic learning skills for validation.

The "cholera cloud" in the nineteenth-century "British World": history of an object-without-an-essence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukharji, Projit Bihari

2012-01-01

The "cholera cloud" is one of the most persistent presences in the archives of nineteenth-century cholera in the "British World." Yet it has seldom received anything more than a passing acknowledgment from historians of cholera. Tracing the history of the cholera cloud as an object promises to open up a new dimension of the historically contingent experience of cholera, as well as make a significant contribution to the emergent literature on "thing theory." By conceptualizing the cholera cloud as an object-without-an-essence, this article demonstrates how global cholera pandemics in the nineteenth century produced globalized objects in which a near-universal recognizability and an utterly context-specific set of meanings, visions, and realities could ironically cohabit.

Courtship, sex and poverty: illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Muir, Angela Joy

2018-01-01

This article sheds new light on illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain through an analysis of evidence from 36 parishes across the former Welsh counties Montgomeryshire and Radnorshire. Quantitative analysis of illegitimacy ratios demonstrates that levels were significantly higher in certain, but not all, parts of Wales in the eighteenth century. This evidence is considered in relation to explanatory frameworks used in the analysis of English data, which attempt to account for rising levels through cultural changes that influenced premarital sexual behaviour, and economic opportunities created by industrialization. Welsh evidence appears to present a challenge to these understandings in two key ways: Wales was linguistically different and lacked certain cultural markers which some historians have associated with an eighteenth-century 'sexual revolution', and because the highest levels of illegitimacy were found in agricultural regions of Wales which experienced little or no industrial change. It is argued that Welsh illegitimacy was influenced by a combination of courtship-led marriage customs, a decline in traditional forms of social control and worsening economic circumstances which, on closer examination, appear remarkably similar to London. This analysis provides further evidence that illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain was a deeply complex phenomenon governed by diverse regionally specific social and economic influences.

Development and verification of local/global analysis techniques for laminated composites

Science.gov (United States)

Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

1989-01-01

Analysis and design methods for laminated composite materials have been the subject of considerable research over the past 20 years, and are currently well developed. In performing the detailed three-dimensional analyses which are often required in proximity to discontinuities, however, analysts often encounter difficulties due to large models. Even with the current availability of powerful computers, models which are too large to run, either from a resource or time standpoint, are often required. There are several approaches which can permit such analyses, including substructuring, use of superelements or transition elements, and the global/local approach. This effort is based on the so-called zoom technique to global/local analysis, where a global analysis is run, with the results of that analysis applied to a smaller region as boundary conditions, in as many iterations as is required to attain an analysis of the desired region. Before beginning the global/local analyses, it was necessary to evaluate the accuracy of the three-dimensional elements currently implemented in the Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed. It was also desired to install, using the Experimental Element Capability, a number of displacement formulation elements which have well known behavior when used for analysis of laminated composites.

Problems in the Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferenc Kovács

2005-03-01

Full Text Available In the analysis of environmental conditions and impacts, the viewpoint that greenhouse gases, primarily anthropogenic (industrial, human carbon dioxide, play a determining role in the change of global temperatures, ( the increase experienced in the last one and a half decade, has been given widespread publicity recently. Coal-fired power plants are the first to blame for the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the last two centuries. The study indicates possibilities to increase the efficiency of coal-fired power plants, which would involve a considerable reduction in CO2 emissions with an identical production volume of electrical energy. On the basis of the analysis of the amount of fossil fuels used, the amount of CO2 emissions and changes in the concentrations of atmospheric CO2, it is shown that no correlation can be proved between the factors investigated and changes in global temperatures.

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

2009-01-01

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

Why American business demands twenty-first century skills: an industry perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruett, Karen

2006-01-01

Public education is the key to individual and business prosperity. With a vested stake in education, educators, employers, parents, policymakers, and the public should question how this nation's public education system is faring. Knowing that recent international assessments have shown little or no gains in American students' achievement, the author asserts the clear need for change. As both a large American corporate employer and a provider of technology for schools, Dell is concerned with ensuring that youth will thrive in their adult lives. Changing workplace expectations lead to a new list of skills students will need to acquire before completing their schooling. Through technology, Dell supports schools in meeting educational goals, striving to supply students with the necessary skills, referred to as twenty-first century skills. The Partnership for 21st Century Skills, of which Dell is a member, has led an initiative to define what twenty-first century learning should entail. Through extensive research, the partnership has built a framework outlining twenty-first century skills: analytical thinking, communication, collaboration, global awareness, and technological and economic literacy. Dell and the partnership are working state by state to promote the integration of these skills into curricula, professional development for teachers, and classroom environments. The authors describe two current initiatives, one in Virginia, the other in Texas, which both use technology to help student learning. All stakeholders can take part in preparing young people to compete in the global economy. Educators and administrators, legislators, parents, and employers must play their role in helping students be ready for what the workforce and the world has in store for them.

Lattice Boltzmann methods for global linear instability analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, José Miguel; Aguilar, Alfonso; Theofilis, Vassilis

2017-12-01

Modal global linear instability analysis is performed using, for the first time ever, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze incompressible flows with two and three inhomogeneous spatial directions. Four linearization models have been implemented in order to recover the linearized Navier-Stokes equations in the incompressible limit. Two of those models employ the single relaxation time and have been proposed previously in the literature as linearization of the collision operator of the lattice Boltzmann equation. Two additional models are derived herein for the first time by linearizing the local equilibrium probability distribution function. Instability analysis results are obtained in three benchmark problems, two in closed geometries and one in open flow, namely the square and cubic lid-driven cavity flow and flow in the wake of the circular cylinder. Comparisons with results delivered by classic spectral element methods verify the accuracy of the proposed new methodologies and point potential limitations particular to the LBM approach. The known issue of appearance of numerical instabilities when the SRT model is used in direct numerical simulations employing the LBM is shown to be reflected in a spurious global eigenmode when the SRT model is used in the instability analysis. Although this mode is absent in the multiple relaxation times model, other spurious instabilities can also arise and are documented herein. Areas of potential improvements in order to make the proposed methodology competitive with established approaches for global instability analysis are discussed.

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

Science.gov (United States)

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Renewable energy education for 21st century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charters, W.W.S.

2000-01-01

The major technological developments in equipment, designed to harness new and renewable sources of energy, have only taken place in the last four decades of the twentieth century, although the principles involved have been previously known for many centuries and were clearly formulated in many of the ancient civilizations. The term renewable energy (RE) itself is of relatively recent origin and only came into widespread use worldwide in the eighties, after the United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, held in Nairobi, Kenya in 1981, Ref 1. Currently, the term renewable s is extensively used to describe the full range of direct and indirect uses of solar radiation incident on the earth's surface, and is often extended to include energy resources, such as tidal power or geothermal energy, neither of which is strictly renewable in the true sense of the word. Energy extracted from biomass is also generally included under this heading, although biomass is truly renewable only if continuous plantation development and replanting is carried out as the biomass is harvested. On a global scale, relatively extensive teaching about renewable energy started in the late seventies and early eighties, after the first impact of the OPEC oil price shock. Up till this time, there were only a few centres around the world where individual dedicated researchers and university teachers were involved in such activity. The next impetus to course and teaching material development came with national movements for energy independence and finally, in the latter years of this century, considerable stimulation has been given due to the increasing realisation of global environmental factors such as global warming, ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere, acid rain formation, and many other environmental degradation effects due to the increasing use of fossil fuel reserves. Considerable attention has been focused in the last twenty years through the many national and

Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Coffel, Ethan D.; Horton, Radley M.; de Sherbinin, Alex

2018-01-01

As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world’s population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today’s most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

Global sensitivity analysis using emulators, with an example analysis of large fire plumes based on FDS simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelsey, Adrian [Health and Safety Laboratory, Harpur Hill, Buxton (United Kingdom)

2015-12-15

Uncertainty in model predictions of the behaviour of fires is an important issue in fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. A global sensitivity analysis can help identify the input parameters or sub-models that have the most significant effect on model predictions. However, to perform a global sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling might require thousands of simulations to be performed and therefore would not be practical for an analysis based on a complex fire code using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). An alternative approach is to perform a global sensitivity analysis using an emulator. Gaussian process emulators can be built using a limited number of simulations and once built a global sensitivity analysis can be performed on an emulator, rather than using simulations directly. Typically reliable emulators can be built using ten simulations for each parameter under consideration, therefore allowing a global sensitivity analysis to be performed, even for a complex computer code. In this paper we use an example of a large scale pool fire to demonstrate an emulator based approach to global sensitivity analysis. In that work an emulator based global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key uncertain model inputs affecting the entrainment rates and flame heights in large Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) fire plumes. The pool fire simulations were performed using the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software. Five model inputs were varied: the fire diameter, burn rate, radiative fraction, computational grid cell size and choice of turbulence model. The ranges used for these parameters in the analysis were determined from experiment and literature. The Gaussian process emulators used in the analysis were created using 127 FDS simulations. The emulators were checked for reliability, and then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Large-scale ignited releases of LNG on water were performed by Sandia National

EVOLUTIONS IN GLOBAL AUTOMOBILES INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

Viorel Pop

2013-01-01

This paper is a brief overview of the evolution of the global automotive industry during the 20th century, with reference to the main manufacturers, oil crises of 1970-1980, and also the global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008. The analyzed period covers the rise of the Asian Continent, beginning with Japan, then South Korea and more recently the emerging countries: China and India. What was predicted 20-25 years ago, became reality: Asia becomes the economic centre of the wor...

Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ang, B.W.; Su, Bin

2016-01-01

We study changes in the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity at the global and country levels. The ACI is defined as the energy-related CO_2 emissions in electricity production divided by the electricity produced. It is a performance indicator since a decrease in its value is a desirable outcome from the environmental and climate change viewpoints. From 1990 to 2013, the ACI computed at the global level decreased only marginally. However, fairly substantial decreases were observed in many countries. This apparent anomaly arises from a geographical shift in global electricity production with countries having a high ACI increasingly taking up a larger electricity production share. It is found that globally and in most major electricity producing countries, reduction in their ACI was due mainly to improvements in the thermal efficiency of electricity generation rather than to fuel switching. Estimates of the above-mentioned effects are made using LMDI decomposition analysis. Our study reveals several challenges in reducing global CO_2 emissions from the electricity production sector although technically the reduction potential for the sector is known to be great. - Highlights: •Variations of aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) for electricity of world countries are analysed. •Main drivers of changes in ACI of major electricity producing countries are studied using index decomposition analysis. •Geographical shift in electricity production had a significant impact on global ACI. •Improvements in the thermal efficiency of generation were the main driver of reduction in ACI.

Global Insurgency: A Prescription for Imposing Strategic Paralysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Katka, Michael B

2008-01-01

.... Some argue that this threat constitutes a global insurgency. This Strategy Research Project examines the nature of this 21st century threat and analyzes the option of "strategic paralysis" to counter...

A Case Study of 21st Century Skills Programs and Practices

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, Kurt

2012-01-01

Skills, such as critical thinking, problem-solving, and innovation are necessary for the 21st Century. The economy and the forums of international business and globalization demand skilled workers. Some schools in the United States are producing such workers, however it is unclear the programs and practices these schools utilize. This study…

A Framework for the "Entrepreneurial" Learner of the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Reimers-Hild, Connie; King, James W.; Foster, John E.; Fritz, Susan M.; Waller, Steven S.; Wheeler, Daniel W.

2005-01-01

Successful distance learners and entrepreneurs may be similar in that they seek out and capitalize on opportunities and marshal resources to achieve their goals. Further, entrepreneurial behavior is a vital asset in the rapidly changing global knowledge economy of the 21 st Century. This paper presents a theoretical framework for examining the…

Globalization and limit to growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gros, D.

2009-01-01

A global financial crisis is not the only concern the world should have. From oil and other commodities new challenges arise, that could be difficult to face properly and could provide another limit to growth. This Malthusian feature of the 21. century emerges clearly if one focuses on climate change. [it

A century of trends in adult human height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damsgaard, Camilla Trab; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Molbo, Drude

2016-01-01

in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over...... the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest...... and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries....

The status and prospects of the debate upon the global warming and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yim, C. Y.

2001-01-01

Possible climate change caused by global warming becomes one of the most serious challenges that mankind shall tackle in 21 st century. Nuclear power, which doesn't emit any greenhouse gas during the generation of electricity, is a promising solution to mitigate the global warming. However, there are still debates about the role of nuclear power related to the subjects such as safety, radioactive waste management and nuclear proliferation risk in the international climate change talks. This paper introduces on-going negotiation focused on the nuclear power and then, gives some prospects on the future negotiations. Finally the brief analysis of their impacts on domestic nuclear industry is carried out

Global patterns of drought recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin

2017-08-09

Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

Twenty-First Century Creativity: An Investigation of How the Partnership for 21st Century Instructional Framework Reflects the Principles of Creativity

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jiajun; Woulfin, Sarah

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to consider how the 21st-century learning framework reflects principles of creativity. This article provides a qualitative analysis of the Partnership for 21st Century's (P21) policy documents, with a specific focus on how the principles of creativity, one of the 4Cs (creativity, critical thinking, collaboration, and…

Global drivers of future river flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

2016-04-01

Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

How China’s Options Will Determine Global Warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clifford Singer

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1 Help develop low-carbon energy technology broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2 Entice other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive fossil fuels; (3 Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon emissions. Taking into account China’s expected influence and approach to limiting the impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be difficult to avoid.

DIMMING OF THE 17TH CENTURY SUN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foukal, Peter; Ortiz, Ada; Schnerr, Roald

2011-01-01

Reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) rely mainly on linear relations between TSI variation and indices of facular area. When these are extrapolated to the prolonged 15th-17th century Spoerer and Maunder solar activity minima, the estimated solar dimming is insufficient to explain the mid-millennial climate cooling of the Little Ice Age. We draw attention here to evidence that the relation departs from linearity at the lowest activity levels. Imaging photometry and radiometry indicate an increased TSI contribution per unit area from small network faculae by a factor of 2-4 compared with larger faculae in and around active regions. Even partial removal of this more TSI-effective network at prolonged minima could enable climatically significant solar dimming, yet be consistent with the weakened but persistent 11 yr cycle observed in Be 10 during the Maunder Minimum. The mechanism we suggest would not alter previous findings that increased solar radiative forcing is insufficient to account for 20th century global warming.

Vaccines for the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Delany, Isabel; Rappuoli, Rino; De Gregorio, Ennio

2014-01-01

In the last century, vaccination has been the most effective medical intervention to reduce death and morbidity caused by infectious diseases. It is believed that vaccines save at least 2–3 million lives per year worldwide. Smallpox has been eradicated and polio has almost disappeared worldwide through global vaccine campaigns. Most of the viral and bacterial infections that traditionally affected children have been drastically reduced thanks to national immunization programs in developed countries. However, many diseases are not yet preventable by vaccination, and vaccines have not been fully exploited for target populations such as elderly and pregnant women. This review focuses on the state of the art of recent clinical trials of vaccines for major unmet medical needs such as HIV, malaria, TB, and cancer. In addition, we describe the innovative technologies currently used in vaccine research and development including adjuvants, vectors, nucleic acid vaccines, and structure-based antigen design. The hope is that thanks to these technologies, more diseases will be addressed in the 21st century by novel preventative and therapeutic vaccines. PMID:24803000

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja E. M.

2015-11-21

Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Globalization and local response to epidemiological overlap in 21st century Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Waters William F

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Third World countries are confronted by a complex overlay of two sets of health problems. Traditional maladies, including communicable diseases, malnutrition, and environmental health hazards coexist with emerging health challenges, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and increasing levels of obesity. Using Ecuador as an example, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for linking epidemiologic overlap to emerging social structures and processes at the national and global levels. Discussion Epidemiologic trends can be seen as part of broader processes related to globalization, but this does not imply that globalization is a monolithic force that inevitably and uniformly affects nations, communities, and households in the same manner. Rather, characteristics and forms of social organization at the subnational level can shape the way that globalization takes place. Thus, globalization has affected Ecuador in specific ways and is, at the same time, intimately related to the form in which the epidemiologic transition has transpired in that country. Summary Ecuador is among neither the poorest nor the wealthiest countries and its situation may illuminate trends in other parts of the world. As in other countries, insertion into the global economy has not taken place in a vacuum; rather, Ecuador has experienced unprecedented social and demographic change in the past several decades, producing profound transformation in its social structure. Examples of local represent alternatives to centralized health systems that do not effectively address the complex overlay of traditional and emerging health problems.

Sociocultural and institutional drivers and constraints to mineral supply; the meaning of scarcity in the 21st century: drivers and constraints to the supply of minerals using regional, national and global perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, William M.

2002-01-01

The sociocultural dimensions of mineral supply at the outset of the 21st century are making the supply process increasingly complex. The dimensions encompass legal, financial, environmental, cultural, and global implications of mining, and are driving unprecedented change in the way minerals supply will be accomplished in the future. Minerals scarcity on a global scale is subordinate to other societal issues about mineral resources and reserves estimated to meet society's demands for decades to centuries in the future. This report reviews historical and present-day sociocultural drivers of change, and reactions of the minerals industry to these drivers. It is reflective primarily of conditions in the United States, but also uses examples from other countries. It expresses viewpoints on sociocultural drivers as seen by constituents of the minerals industry and several other communities of interest including Aboriginal peoples, non-government organizations; labor; mining-dependent communities; mining-affected communities; researchers; and government (federal, state/provincial, and local). It provides overviews of the demand for minerals in the United States, and the status of land available for mining. The report uses a case study of a metals mining project in Wisconsin to illustrate specific sociocultural drivers and constraints to minerals supply, and how these influence the minerals industry. Over the past 150 years, a progression of sociocultural movements under the headings of conservationism, environmentalism, and sustainable development have nurtured societal values that have come to influence the mineral supply process in important ways. These movements reflect a continuing tension between the demand for minerals and other resources, and the simultaneous demand for aesthetic, spiritual, ecological, cultural, and other attributes of the land. The tension is an important element in current international debates about the meaning and future of sustainable

THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

2013-08-22

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ the GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.

Smart Cities and Charming Villages: New Heritage Processes in the Twenty-first Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Santamarina Campos

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The heritage phenomenon has undergone spectacular growth in recent decades in a boom that can be interpreted as an aspect of the third spirit of capitalism. The arrival of the economy of intangibles with its emphasis on this new production of value has changed the rules of the game for the global economy. In this article, we argue that a crucial transformation has taken place within the activation of heritage assets: we have moved from the political nationalism which triggered collective heritage in the nineteenth century, to a nationalism of consumption during the twentyfirst century. In this context, we focus on the different impact of heritage processes depending on where a location is positioned within global markets. This position will then condition the bid to become a smart city or charming village. We contend that both are two sides of the same coin.

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

South-South Universities Curriculum Characteristics and Global Collaboration in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Obiekezie, Eucharia Obiageli; Essien, Margaret; Essien, Alexander Timothy

2013-01-01

Globalization imposes certain inescapable requirements on a university's curriculum. One such requirement is the elasticity of the curriculum to sustain local demands and accommodate global concerns. Using the ex post facto design, this paper examines the impact of global collaboration on the curriculum characteristics of selected universities in…

Life designing: a paradigm for career construction in the 21st century

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Savickas, M.L.; Nota, L.; Rossier, J.; Dauwalder, J.P.; Duarte, M.E.; Guichard, J.; Soresi, S.; van Esbroeck, R.; van Vianen, A.E.M.

2009-01-01

At the beginning of the 21st century, a new social arrangement of work poses a series of questions and challenges to scholars who aim to help people develop their working lives. Given the globalization of career counseling, we decided to address these issues and then to formulate potentially

Testing Students under Cognitive Capitalism: Knowledge Production of Twenty-First Century Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Clara

2016-01-01

Scholars studying the global governance of education have noted the increasingly important role corporations play in educational policy making. I contribute to this scholarship by examining the Assessment and Teaching of twenty-first century skills (ATC21S™) project, a knowledge production apparatus operating under cognitive capitalism. I analyze…

Globalization, Sustainable Development and Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Toakley, Arthur Raymond

2004-01-01

Globalization is a natural outcome of the sustained technological and economic growth, which originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain during the 18th century. This path to continuing economic growth spread initially to continental Europe and North America, and brought with it the creation of large towns and substantial social change.…

Forced Migration and Global Responsibility for Health; Comment on “Defining and Acting on Global Health: The Case of Japan and the Refugee Crisis”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kayvan Bozorgmehr

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Forced migration has become a world-wide phenomenon in the past century, affecting increasing numbers of countries and people. It entails important challenges from a global health perspective. Leppold et al have critically discussed the Japanese interpretation of global responsibility for health in the context of forced migration. This commentary complements their analysis by outlining three priority areas of global health responsibility for European Union (EU countries. We highlight important stages of the migration phases related to forced migration and propose three arguments. First, the chronic neglect of the large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs in the discourses on the “refugee crisis” needs to be corrected in order to develop sustainable solutions with a framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs. Second, protection gaps in the global system of protection need to be effectively closed to resolve conflicts with border management and normative global health frameworks. Third, effective policies need to be developed and implemented to meet the health and humanitarian needs of forced migrants; at the same time, the solidarity crisis within the EU needs to be overcome. These stakes are high. EU countries, being committed to global health, should urgently address these areas.

Global environment and cogeneration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyahara, Atsushi

1992-01-01

The environment problems on global scale have been highlighted in addition to the local problems due to the rapid increase of population, the increase of energy demand and so on. The global environment summit was held in Brazil. Now, global environment problems are the problems for mankind, and their importance seems to increase toward 21st century. In such circumstances, cogeneration can reduce carbon dioxide emission in addition to energy conservation, therefore, attention has been paid as the countermeasure for global environment. The background of global environment problems is explained. As to the effectiveness of cogeneration for global environment, the suitability of city gas to environment, energy conservation, the reduction of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emission are discussed. As for the state of spread of cogeneration, as of March, 1992, those of 2250 MW in terms of power generation capacity have been installed in Japan. It is forecast that cogeneration will increase hereafter. As the future systems of cogeneration, city and industry energy center conception, industrial repowering, multiple house cogeneration and fuel cells are described. (K.I.)

Democratização da governança global: perspectivas históricas mundiais Democratizing global governance: world historical perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher Chase-Dunn

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Este artigo examina a controversa noção de democracia global. O texto apresenta uma perspectiva histórica mundial da evolução da governança global - como a estrutura política do sistema-mundo evoluiu ao longo dos últimos séculos - e analisa movimentos sociais contemporâneos que buscam democratizar as instituições de governança global. Argumenta-se que os que desejam democratizar a governança global devem assumir o repto de ajudar a promover a construção de um estado mundial globalmente multilateral para fazer frente aos desafios que se colocarão à humanidade no século 21. Movimentos sociais transnacionais e estados nacionais semiperiféricos progressistas são vistos como os agentes que irão desafiar os poderes constituídos e conduzir a humanidade rumo a uma comunidade global democrática e coletivamente racional nas próximas décadas.This article examines the contested idea of global democracy. It presents a world historical view of the evolution of global governance - how the political structure of the world-system has evolved of over the past several centuries - and it examines contemporary social movements that are seeking to democratize global governance institutions. It is argued that those who want to democratize global governance must take up the problem of helping to further construct a global multilateral world state in order that the challenges that humanity has created for itself may be met in a collectively rational, sustainable and humane manner in the 21st century. Transnational social movements and progressive semiperipheral national-states are seen as the agents that will challenge the powers that be and move humanity closer to a democratic and collectively rational global commonwealth in the next several decades.

The Global Epidemiology of Syphilis in the Past Century – A Systematic Review Based on Antenatal Syphilis Prevalence

Science.gov (United States)

Kenyon, Chris Richard; Osbak, Kara; Tsoumanis, Achilleas

2016-01-01

Background How can we explain the uneven decline of syphilis around the world following the introduction of penicillin? In this paper we use antenatal syphilis prevalence (ASP) to investigate how syphilis prevalence varied worldwide in the past century, and what risk factors correlate with this variance. Methods 1) A systematic review using PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted to identify countries with published data relating to ASP estimates from before 1952 until the present. Eleven countries were identified (Canada, Denmark, Finland, India, Japan, Norway, Singapore, South Africa, United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK) and Zimbabwe). The ASP epidemic curve for each population was depicted graphically. In South Africa and the USA, results are reported separately for the black and white populations. 2) National antenatal syphilis prevalence estimates for 1990 to 1999 and 2008 were taken from an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database on the prevalence of syphilis in low risk populations compiled for the Global Burden of Diseases study and from a recent review paper respectively. National ASPs were depicted graphically and regional median ASPs were calculated for both time periods. 3) Linear regression was used to test for an association between ASP in 1990–1999 and 2008 and four risk factors (efficacy of syphilis screening/treatment, health expenditure, GDP per capita and circumcision prevalence). WHO world regions were included as potential explanatory variables. Results In most populations, ASP dropped to under 1% before 1960. In Zimbabwe and black South Africans, ASP was high in the pre-penicillin period, dropped in the post-penicillin period, but then plateaued at around 6% until the end of the 20th century when ASP dropped to just above 1%. In black Americans, ASP declined in the post penicillin period, but plateaued at 3–5% thereafter. ASP was statistically significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa in 1990–1999 and 2008

Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liepert, Beate G; Previdi, Michael

2012-01-01

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of −0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only −0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a ‘leaking’ of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a ‘flooding’ is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence ‘ghost’ sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of −1 to +6 W m −2 (median +0.1 W m −2 ). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges

The Reasons for Activisation of Separatism Movements in Xinjiang Later in XX and XXI Centuries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Анна Сергеевна Мавлонова

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The article includes analysis of the main reasons for activization of separatism movements in Xinjiang later in XX and earlier in XXI centuries. The author comes into conclusion that the following reasons caused the process of active politicization of ethnicity in Central Asian region and wide territories of Xinjiang: changes in the territory of former Soviet Union countries; economic recession in former Soviet Union countries which led to activization of radical movements; economic reforms in China leading to liberalization of social and political spheres; influence of external global factors. The mentioned changes resulted in serious activization of separatist tendencies which was not the case in earlier periods.

Career counselling in the 21st century: South African institutions of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The current state of career counselling1 in South African institutions of higher education in the 21st century is explored in this article in an attempt to locate current work in the field of career counselling in South Africa in the light of global trends (academic and economic) and in terms of local history and current economic ...

Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bruce J.

2004-01-01

Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness

Facilitation of the PED analysis of large molecules by using global coordinates.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamróz, Michał H; Ostrowski, Sławomir; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz

2015-10-05

Global coordinates have been found to be useful in the potential energy distribution (PED) analyses of the following large molecules: [13]-acene and [33]-helicene. The global coordinate is defined based on much distanced fragments of the analysed molecule, whereas so far, the coordinates used in the analysis were based on stretchings, bendings, or torsions of the adjacent atoms. It has been shown that the PED analyses performed using the global coordinate and the classical ones can lead to exactly the same PED contributions. The global coordinates may significantly improve the facility of the analysis of the vibrational spectra of large molecules. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Collaborative E-Learning for the Global Management Education in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Barbara W. K.

2017-01-01

Rapidly growing information and communications technology and a more interconnected global world offer benefits and challenges to global business organizations. While exploring benefits from global workforce and global production, they must successfully adapt to their local market conditions and manage their multicultural resources. How can we…

Introduction to Asian Culture(s) and Globalization

OpenAIRE

Wang, I-Chun; Guo, Li

2013-01-01

Marshall McLuhan coined the term "the global village" associating globalized human experiences in an electronic age (4). Although transnational relations existed for many centuries, McLuhan predicted in the 1960s that new technologies not only facilitate the growth of international interconnectedness, cross-border exchanges, as well as trans-cultural phenomena, but also help foster cultural transactions. Referring to the dramatic and unprecedented break between the past and the present, tradi...

Academia in the 21st century. An analysis of trends and perspectives in higher education and research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Boer, Harry F.; Huisman, Jeroen; Klemperer, A.M.; van der Meulen, Barend; Neave, Guy; Theisens, H.C.; van der Wende, Marijk

2002-01-01

What are world wide the main trends that will or should have an impact on the future of academia? What is expected from academia by different stakeholders in the years to come? These and related questions are addressed in CHEPS¿s report ¿Academia in the 21st century. An analysis of trends and

Global stability analysis of epidemiological models based on Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Shu; Wang Jin

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Global dynamics of high dimensional dynamical systems. ► A systematic approach for global stability analysis. ► Epidemiological models of environment-dependent diseases. - Abstract: In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of mathematical epidemiological models formulated by systems of differential equations. These models involve both human population and environmental component(s) and constitute high-dimensional nonlinear autonomous systems, for which the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibria has been a major challenge in analyzing the dynamics. By incorporating the theory of Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices into the classical method of Lyapunov functions, we present an approach for global stability analysis and obtain new results on some three- and four-dimensional model systems. In addition, we conduct numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

GLOBALIZATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ISLAMIC FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

OpenAIRE

KHAN, M. ALI

2000-01-01

In this paper, I reflect on the implications of financial globalization for Islamic financial institutions in terms of coordinates selected from both history and theory. I present in outline the 18th century case for and against commerce, the 19th century case for and against a central institution acting as a lender of last resort, and modern theoretical developments in finance and insurance based on the law of large numbers and centered around the notions of arbitrage, naive and efficient di...

About public health policies in the new century

OpenAIRE

Franco G., Alvaro

2010-01-01

Several subjects of public health policies are analyzed from different points of view, bearing in mind the line of coherence of their universal, global and integral character. Themes such as "Health for All", understood as a universal policy at the close of this century, are included. Around it other recent approaches are considered which are also related between them: the subject of health promotion in its broad vision from the guidelines of the Ottawa (Canada) letter, and the public health ...

Global analysis of the protection status of the world's forests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmitt, Christine B.; Burgess, Neil David; Coad, Lauren

2009-01-01

This study presents a global analysis of forest cover and forest protection. An updated Global Forest Map (using MODIS2005) provided a current assessment of forest cover within 20 natural forest types. This map was overlaid onto WWF realms and ecoregions to gain additional biogeographic information...... on forest distribution. Using the 2008 World Database on Protected Areas, percentage forest cover protection was calculated globally, within forest types, realms and ecoregions, and within selected areas of global conservation importance. At the 10% tree cover threshold, global forest cover was 39 million...... km2. Of this, 7.7% fell within protected areas under IUCN management categories I-IV. With the inclusion of IUCN categories V and VI, the level of global forest protection increased to 13.5%. Percentage forest protection (IUCN I-IV) varied greatly between realms from 5.5% (Palearctic) to 13...

Handheld XRF analysis of a 16th century Mexican Feather Headdress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karydas, A.G; Padilla-Alvarez, R.; Drozdenko, M.; Korn, M.; Moreno Guzmán, M.O.

2014-01-01

The 16th century feather headdress in the Weltmuseum Wien (WMW), an affiliated institution of the Kunsthistorisches Museum (KHM) in Vienna, is the most renowned of the few remaining pre-Columbian “Arte Plumaria” artefacts, which were made by feather artisans (Amantecas) using traditional techniques in the territory of present day Mexico. The recorded history of the headdress begins in 1596, when it is first mentioned in the estate inventory of the art collection of Archduke Ferdinand II of Tyrol at Ambras Castle. Due to its age, the variety of materials used, its history and former restoration treatments, the artefact is today one of the most sensitive and demanding care objects of the museum. Despite the object’s long history, very little documentation on past interventions exists. From 2010-2012, a binational research project between Mexico (Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia) and Austria (Weltmuseum Wien) performed a systematic investigation focused on the identification of manufacturing techniques and the various materials, the old restoration measures and its conservation. Handheld x-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometers are extremely useful for the study of art works in museum collections. The possibility of bringing the instrument to inspect the objects on-site facilitates the study of artefacts that cannot be moved either due to their extreme fragility or due to their large size and/or weight. In addition, non-destructive analysis constitutes a preferred alternative to invasive sampling techniques, which are usually not allowed in the study of unique or extremely valuable objects. The aim of the XRF analysis was twofold: to investigate the possible presence of inorganic toxic elements that could be associated to the use of pesticides in past conservation interventions and; to characterize the chemical composition of the authentic gold and the gilded brass ornaments, which were added in the 19th century. The results of the XRF analytical

xxi Century Latin American Journalists: Beyond Post-Truth Politics

OpenAIRE

Amado, Adriana; Universidad Nacional de La Matanza (Argentina)

2017-01-01

Considering the complexity of circumstances that journalism is facing, academia should rethink the classical conceptions of the profession, especially when they reduce journalism to abstract models disregarding reporters’ actual practices. Results of a global research propose a new definition of journalism, a profession caught between conflicting interests that lack the supremacy of news production, as it used to be in the past century. It is all about broadening the debate to reconsider the ...

An Appeal to the Global Health Community for a Tripartite Innovation: An "Essential Diagnostics List," "Health in All Policies," and "See-Through 21(st) Century Science and Ethics".

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Edward S; Barlas, I Ömer; Birch, Kean; Boehme, Catharina; Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander; Byne, William M; Chaverneff, Florence; Coşkun, Yavuz; Dahl, Marja-Liisa; Dereli, Türkay; Diwakar, Shyam; Elbeyli, Levent; Endrenyi, Laszlo; Eroğlu-Kesim, Belgin; Ferguson, Lynnette R; Güngör, Kıvanç; Gürsoy, Ulvi; Hekim, Nezih; Huzair, Farah; Kaushik, Kabeer; Kickbusch, Ilona; Kıroğlu, Olcay; Kolker, Eugene; Könönen, Eija; Lin, Biaoyang; Llerena, Adrian; Malhan, Faruk; Nair, Bipin; Patrinos, George P; Şardaş, Semra; Sert, Özlem; Srivastava, Sanjeeva; Steuten, Lotte M G; Toraman, Cengiz; Vayena, Effy; Wang, Wei; Warnich, Louise; Özdemir, Vural

2015-08-01

Diagnostics spanning a wide range of new biotechnologies, including proteomics, metabolomics, and nanotechnology, are emerging as companion tests to innovative medicines. In this Opinion, we present the rationale for promulgating an "Essential Diagnostics List." Additionally, we explain the ways in which adopting a vision for "Health in All Policies" could link essential diagnostics with robust and timely societal outcomes such as sustainable development, human rights, gender parity, and alleviation of poverty. We do so in three ways. First, we propose the need for a new, "see through" taxonomy for knowledge-based innovation as we transition from the material industries (e.g., textiles, plastic, cement, glass) dominant in the 20(th) century to the anticipated knowledge industry of the 21st century. If knowledge is the currency of the present century, then it is sensible to adopt an approach that thoroughly examines scientific knowledge, starting with the production aims, methods, quality, distribution, access, and the ends it purports to serve. Second, we explain that this knowledge trajectory focus on innovation is crucial and applicable across all sectors, including public, private, or public-private partnerships, as it underscores the fact that scientific knowledge is a co-product of technology, human values, and social systems. By making the value systems embedded in scientific design and knowledge co-production transparent, we all stand to benefit from sustainable and transparent science. Third, we appeal to the global health community to consider the necessary qualities of good governance for 21st century organizations that will embark on developing essential diagnostics. These have importance not only for science and knowledge-based innovation, but also for the ways in which we can build open, healthy, and peaceful civil societies today and for future generations.

Show Me the Money Resources: Financial Literacy for 21st-Century Learners

Science.gov (United States)

Gavigan, Karen

2010-01-01

Some economists have called the current U.S. economic environment the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Many educators and parents believe it is more important than ever for students to master financial literacy skills. To become successful and responsible 21st century citizens, students need to graduate globally competitive for…

Social Development of 21st Century and Reform of China's Elementary Education

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Lan

2006-01-01

The Chinese society of the 21st century is at a critical period of transformation. The emergence of globalization and informationalization are the most striking changes of the current Chinese society. The profound change in the social transformation and its penetrating influence on people's lives has revealed the disadvantages of the present…

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Comparison of global sensitivity analysis techniques and importance measures in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.

2003-01-01

This paper discusses application and results of global sensitivity analysis techniques to probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, and their comparison to importance measures. This comparison allows one to understand whether PSA elements that are important to the risk, as revealed by importance measures, are also important contributors to the model uncertainty, as revealed by global sensitivity analysis. We show that, due to epistemic dependence, uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis of PSA models must be performed at the parameter level. A difficulty arises, since standard codes produce the calculations at the basic event level. We discuss both the indirect comparison through importance measures computed for basic events, and the direct comparison performed using the differential importance measure and the Fussell-Vesely importance at the parameter level. Results are discussed for the large LLOCA sequence of the advanced test reactor PSA

Review Essay: Moving beyond Global Encounters toward Global Reciprocity: Christian Education in East Asian Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyun-Sook

2015-01-01

Christianity as a world religion was propagated from Europe and North America to Africa and Asia. Global Christianity spread to East Asia when Robert Morrison (1782-1843) arrived in Canton, China in 1807, and later in the late 19th-century Protestant missionaries from North America arrived in Japan and Korea. This Christianity experienced a modern…

Studies of global warming and global energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inaba, Atsushi

1993-01-01

Global warming caused by increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been the focus of many recent global energy studies. CO 2 is emitted to the atmosphere mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. This means that global warming is fundamentally a problem of the global energy system. An analysis of the findings of recent global energy studies is made in this report. The results are categorized from the viewpoint of concern about global warming. The analysis includes energy use and CO 2 emissions, measures taken to restrain CO 2 emissions and the cost of such measure, and suggestions for long term global energy generation. Following this comparative analysis, each of the studies is reviewed in detail. (author) 63 refs

Global Dominates of China’s Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svitlana Radziyevska

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The end of XX – the beginning of the XXI century was marked by the bright discovery that Chinese economy became one of the leading factors in global development, the powerful locomotive of globalization. On the background of negative impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2010 the People’s Republic of China (PRC has proven to be the most stable and able to definite development, though at a slower pace on the vast majority of countries in the world. Only due to China the centre of world progress started shifting from Western Europe and North America to the APR. An analysis of peculiarities of the course of globalization processes shows that China, under the slogan of open peace-loving politics, actually strengthens its political and economic activities aimed at transformation of the existing unipolar world headed by the United States into a multipolar world. China's foreign policy is aimed at achieving the status of a superstate until the middle of 21st century. In the article PRC Concept “Belt and Road Initiative” is considered as a proof of existence of such a strategy. At the same time, attention is drawn to the fact that in order to achieve its goal, China establishes trade ties with all countries of the world, primarily through the introduction of free trade zones (FTAs and an increase in investments, which is clearly manifested in its Eurasian policy, as well as in the implementation of the Concept of “Belt and Road Initiative”. The article proves the expediency of establishing an FTA between Ukraine and China and more active involving Ukraine in the implementation of the New Silk Road project based on the analysis of trade and economic relations between Ukraine and China and based on the specific state of its economy in the conditions of geopolitical and geoeconomic instability. The article covers the key tendencies of Ukraine’s foreign trade cooperation with China in the context of the FTA initiative. The main goods

Scientific Productivity on Research in Ethical Issues over the Past Half Century: A JoinPoint Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Huy, Nguyen Tien; Trang, Nguyen Thi Huyen; Luan, Nguyen Thien; Anh, Nguyen Hoang; Nghi, Tran Diem; Hieu, Mai Van; Hirayama, Kenji; Karbwang, Juntra

2014-09-01

Ethics is one of the main pillars in the development of science. We performed a JoinPoint regression analysis to analyze the trends of ethical issue research over the past half century. The question is whether ethical issues are neglected despite their importance in modern research. PubMed electronic library was used to retrieve publications of all fields and ethical issues. JoinPoint regression analysis was used to identify the significant time trends of publications of all fields and ethical issues, as well as the proportion of publications on ethical issues to all fields over the past half century. Annual percent changes (APC) were computed with their 95% confidence intervals, and a p-value years (from 1996 to 2013). When comparing the absolute number of ethics related articles (APEI) to all publications of all fields (APAF) on PubMed, the results showed that the proportion of APEI to APAF statistically increased during the periods of 1965-1974, 1974-1986, and 1986-1993, with APCs of 11.0, 2.1, and 8.8, respectively. However, the trend has gradually dropped since 1993 and shown a marked decrease from 2002 to 2013 with an annual percent change of -7.4%. Scientific productivity in ethical issues research on over the past half century rapidly increased during the first 30-year period but has recently been in decline. Since ethics is an important aspect of scientific research, we suggest that greater attention is needed in order to emphasize the role of ethics in modern research.

NASA: Black soot fuels global warming

CERN Multimedia

2003-01-01

New research from NASA's Goddard Space Center scientists suggests emissions of black soot have been altering the way sunlight reflects off Earth's snow. The research indicates the soot could be responsible for as much as 25 percent of global warming over the past century (assorted news items, 1 paragraph each).

Diplomacy and Cosmopolitanism in a Globalized World

OpenAIRE

Adina Borcan

2012-01-01

Due to the fact that there is a new world culture, with increasing connections of varied local cultures, the characteristics of the 21st century seem to be globalization, seen as “a matter of increasing long-distance interconnectedness, at least across national boundaries, preferably between continents as well” (Hannerz, 1996, p. 17). However, despite this tendency towards globalization, there are still some communities who have no contacts even within the same country (different tribes from ...

Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Claar, Danielle C; Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M; Schanze, Julian J; Baum, Julia K

2018-01-01

Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

Visual Literacy: Does It Enhance Leadership Abilities Required for the Twenty-First Century?

Science.gov (United States)

Bintz, Carol

2016-01-01

The twenty-first century hosts a well-established global economy, where leaders are required to have increasingly complex skills that include creativity, innovation, vision, relatability, critical thinking and well-honed communications methods. The experience gained by learning to be visually literate includes the ability to see, observe, analyze,…

Panel - Ethics in modern universities of technology : Challenges of the 21st century

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engel-Hills, Penelope; Hillerbrand, Rafaela; Rip, Arie; Sunderland, Mary; Taebi, Behnam; Werker, Claudia; Wineberg, Chris

2014-01-01

The challenges of the 21st century will fully reflect on universities of technology. The world population is growing while we pursue higher levels of global well-being. The increasing energy demands and the resulting problems of climate change will be only two of the many major challenges humanity

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

Fueling Global Fishing Fleets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyedmers, Peter H.; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2005-01-01

Over the course of the 20th century, fossil fuels became the dominant energy input to most of the world's fisheries. Although various analyses have quantified fuel inputs to individual fisheries, to date, no attempt has been made to quantify the global scale and to map the distribution of fuel consumed by fisheries. By integrating data representing more than 250 fisheries from around the world with spatially resolved catch statistics for 2000, we calculate that globally, fisheries burned almost 50 billion L of fuel in the process of landing just over 80 million t of marine fish and invertebrates for an average rate of 620 L/t. Consequently, fisheries account for about 1.2% of global oil consumption, an amount equivalent to that burned by the Netherlands, the 18th-ranked oil consuming country globally, and directly emit more than 130 million t of CO 2 into the atmosphere. From an efficiency perspective, the energy content of the fuel burned by global fisheries is 12.5 times greater than the edible protein energy content of the resulting catch

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2017-01-01

Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

From famine to food crisis: what history can teach us about local and global subsistence crises.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanhaute, Eric

2011-01-01

The number of famine prone regions in the world has been shrinking for centuries. It is currently mainly limited to sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the impact of endemic hunger has not declined and the early twenty-first century seems to be faced with a new threat: global subsistence crises. In this essay I question the concepts of famine and food crisis from different analytical angles: historical and contemporary famine research, food regime theory, and peasant studies. I will argue that only a more integrated historical framework of analysis can surpass dualistic interpretations grounded in Eurocentric modernization paradigms. This article successively debates historical and contemporary famine research, the contemporary food regime and the new global food crisis, the lessons from Europe's 'grand escape' from hunger, and the peasantry and 'depeasantization' as central analytical concepts. Dualistic histories of food and famine have been dominating developmentalist stories for too long. This essay shows how a blending of historical and contemporary famine research, food regime theory and new peasant studies can foster a more integrated perspective.

The Evolution of Global Politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Moldeski

1995-08-01

Full Text Available The rise and decline of world powers has attracted much scholarly attention in recent years. The theory of long cycles answers parsimoniously the question: why, in the past half millenium, have Portugal, the Dutch Republic, Britain (twice, and the United States risen to global leadership while others have failed to do so? This accounts for the success, or failure, of individual states, but to explain the entire sequence we need to employ an evolutionary paradigm that proposes that each of these long cycles is one mechanism in a spectrum of global evolutionary processes. The leadership succession is an intermediate stage in the evolution og global politics, whose next likely major phase, reaching a high point later in the 21st century, will be the gradual absorption of the informal role of global leadership, when embedded in a democratic community, into a network of more formal positions within an emerging global organization of a federalist character. The conditions of that process can now be specified.

The Nineteenth Century Revised: Towards a New Narrative of Europe’s Past

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Stråth

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The conventional history of Europe, connecting the Enlightenment heritage with our time, makes a huge detour around the violent nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth one. The article explores the European peace utopias of 1815, 1918 and 1951, and their eventual loss of suggestive force, and argues that they link today’s global Europe to the post-Napoleonic world two hundred years ago. This connection, through a series of illusions and disillusions about the nature of politics, represents a different view on the nineteenth and twentieth century than the conventional teleological narrative about fulfilment of the Enlightenment promise of progress. The analysis of the bicentenary chain of shifts between postwar, prewar and war should not be read in terms of a teleology necessitating a new war; the point is, rather to draw attention to the fragility and openness of historical processes. The new narrative outlined here emphasizes that there was no necessity in the development towards today’s Europe; the story is full of alternatives, and highlights the role as well as the responsibility of human agency. No solution appears as a necessary result of impersonal forces, everything has depended, and continues to depend, on human choice.

Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 91 Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century A. S. Unnikrishnan National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403004 unni@nio.org Introduction Sea-level... rise is one of the good indicators of global warming. Rise in sea level occurs mainly through melting of glaciers, thermal expansion due to ocean warming and some other processes of relatively smaller magnitudes. Sea level rise is a global...

Anthropomorphic Networks as Representatives of Global Consciousness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergii Yahodzinskyi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available There has been analyzed a phenomenon of global consciousness, and its cultural and historical, civilizational dimensions have been substantiated. There has been demonstrated that the concept of planetary consciousness, global thinking, noosphere was described for the first time in the philosophy of cosmism. However, in modern conditions ideas of representatives of the naturalistic philosophical direction of cosmism have not lost their heuristic potential. They can be reconsidered in a new fashion within the context of emerging anthropomorphic (human dimension networks. There has been proved that global consciousness is a component of the social and cultural potential of global information networks defining vectors to prospects of humanity progress in the 21st century. Relying on methodology of the structural and functional analysis, the author arrives at a conclusion about global networks obtaining the status of representatives of global consciousness. This is the area of networks where all relevant information is concentrated – from statistical data to scientific and technical information. Access to these data is limited by human abilities and is realized in the form of discrete requests with using heuristic algorithms of information procession. A suggestion is introduced considering the fact that modern society being a self-organized system seeks to gain stable condition. Anthropomorphic networks are means of decreasing social entropy, which is growing as a result of any kind of human intervention into social processes. Thus, for the first time a human is challenged by their intellect, ability to create, discover and control.

Onwards! Reinforcing Democracy for the 21st Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ismail Serageldin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Universal suffrage has been the primary goal of democratic evolution. Despite elections and other measures taken to ensure democratic rights, some desired outcomes such as equality and transparency are not being met. The current mode of our democratic system is archaic in addressing the world’s multifaceted global crises. So, there’s a dire need to incorporate new elements of democratic governance to address the issue. Humanity now lives in a transition period, so the path may not be easy. But the scientific and technological revolution underway is rapidly changing the mindsets of people and helping them exercise their rights. The article thus focuses on how democracy serves as the best system to ensure human rights and provide for a better society and also, how current models of democratic governance which matured in the last century can be improved in the 21st century, which is instrumental for meeting the challenges humanity confronts today. – Editor

ECONOMIC ASPECTS REGARDING THE GLOBAL DIMENSION OF POVERTY IN THE XXI CENTURY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PAUL-BOGDAN ZAMFIR

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we proposed to investigate the spread of poverty phenomenon on the global scale. Also we examined the causes and the efects of unequal distribution of global wealth, emphasing the impact of economic globalization on the deepening of poverty at the international comunity level. In the contemporary context of economic globalization the poverty is a scourge of the international community, that marks a dangerous gap between the many poor and the few rich. On the other hand, the poverty can be rightly considered the deprivation of population or certain population groups of welfare. In generally, for the common man, poverty means hunger, misery and diseases. Also, the poverty is an economical-legal phenomenon. The economic component of poverty consist in the deficiency of resources to ensure a decent standard of living and the access to basic services (health, education etc., while the legal dimension is reflected in the reduced possibility of a person or population groups to benefit from the civil rights and other fundamental rights, as well as the right to lead way of life which he desires or values.

21st centuries skill implication on educational system

Science.gov (United States)

Wrahatnolo, T.; Munoto

2018-01-01

The purpose of this article is to identify skill needed in 21st centuries and its implication on Indonesia’s educational system. This research found that the 21st centuries skill application has more measurable benefits in some sections of life, such as critical thinking and problem solving, initiative, creativity, and entrepreneurship, communication, teamwork, metacognition (change of mindset), digital literature. This study applied qualitative data analysis. The data were taken from different sources and literature. The analysis showed that The 21st centuries education concept’s implementation can be applied in the curriculum of the required subject that is addressed to achieve learning and innovation skills competence and also technology and information media skills competence. While supporting subject group directed to achieve life and career skills competence. All subjects are the derivation from core subject 3R, which are reading, writing, and arithmetic. Based on the description above, it can be concluded that 21st centuries skill needs; (1) a life planning; (2) flexibility and adaptability; (3) initiative and self-management (4) entrepreneurship; (5) social and cultural interaction; (6) productivity and accountability; (7) leadership; (8) critical thinking, (9) problem solving; (10) communication; (11) collaboration and teamwork; (12) lifelong learning; and (13) digital literation.

PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchiatti, A.; Climent-Font, A.; Enguita, O.; Fernandez-Jimenez, M.T.; Finaldi, G.; Garrido, C.; Matillas, J.M.

2005-01-01

The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Analisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autonoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers

PIXE analysis of Italian ink drawings of the XVI century

Science.gov (United States)

Zucchiatti, A.; Climent-Font, A.; Enguita, O.; Fernandez-Jimenez, M. T.; Finaldi, G.; Garrido, C.; Matillas, J. M.

2005-10-01

The composition of inks in a group of 24 drawings of ten XVI century Italian painters, has been determined by PIXE at the external micro-beam line of the Centro de Micro Análisis de Materiales of the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Ink elemental thicknesses have been determined by comparison with a set of certified thin standards. A comprehensive comparison of inks has also been performed by renormalisation of spectra and definition of an ink-to-ink distance. The elemental compositions and the ink-to-ink distances give consistent results that are generally in line with the appearance of the drawings and add relevant instrumental information to the stylistic observation, revealing for example the presence of retouches and additions in different parts of a drawing. Cluster analysis performed on a subgroup of 13 artefacts from the Genoese painter Luca Cambiaso and his school has revealed a partition that separates neatly the work of the master from that of his followers.

The Changing Shape of Global Inequality 1820--2000; Exploring a New Dataset

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Zanden, Jan Luiten|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/071115374; Baten, Joerg; Foldvari, Peter|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/323382045; van Leeuwen, Bas|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/330811924

2014-01-01

new dataset for charting the development of global inequality between 1820 and 2000 is presented, based on a large variety of sources and methods for estimating (gross household) income inequality. On this basis we estimate the evolution of global income inequality over the past two centuries. Two

Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

Science.gov (United States)

Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

The Dialectics of Discrimination in the Twenty-First Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Stone

2007-12-01

Full Text Available This article explores some of the latest developments in the scholarship on race relations and nationalism that seek to address the impact of globalization and the changed geo-political relations of the first decade of the twenty-first century. New patterns of identification, some of which challenge existing group boundaries and others that reinforce them, can be seen to flow from the effects of global market changes and the political counter-movements against them. The impact of the “war on terrorism”, the limits of the utility of hard power, and the need for new mechanisms of inter-racial and inter-ethnic conflict resolution are evaluated to emphasize the complexity of these group relations in the new world disorder.

Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

2017-12-01

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

Discourse of globalization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balažić Milan

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Since the fall of the Berlin wall, the process of globalization has been understood as a necessary fate. The myth of the almightiness of the market economy, liberalization and deregulation is revitalized. Before us, there is a phenomenon Lacan’s discourse of University, which in 20 century was firstly given as a Stalinist discourse and today is given as a neo-liberal discourse of globalization. From underneath og a seeming objectivity, a Master insists-either the Party and the Capital. Just as the utopia of the world proletarian revolution has fallen apart, the utopia of globalize capitalism and liberal democracy is also falling apart. The 9/11 event is opening opportunities for a construction of the field of social and political, out of the contour of the status quo. The coordinates of the possibility has changed and if we take the non-existence of the grand Autre on ourselves, then the contingence interference in the existent socio-symbolic order is possible.

Experiments in Reconstructing Twentieth-Century Sea Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Richard D.; Douglas, Bruce C.

2011-01-01

One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 +/- 0.26 mm/yr. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm/yr which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.

Wind energy in a global world

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hjuler Jensen, Peter

2007-01-01

For the past 25 years there has been a dramatic development in the wind energy sector, with regard to the increase in overall utilisation of wind energy as well as technological development, the development of markets and expectations to the role of wind energy in the global electricity supply...... system. The purpose of this paper is to outline developments in the global capacity of wind energy this past quarter of a century, including technology, market aspects, scientific developments, testing and certification, formulation of standards and scenarios for the future development of wind energy...

Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

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Zou Tao

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

IN SEARCH OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SUPREMACY: CHINA VERSUS USA

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SORIN-GEORGE TOMA

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The roots of the global economy can be found in the 15th century. It started with the expansion of trade and distribution and continued with the development of industry and services. The global economy has changed significantly during the past decades, especially after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Governments, policymakers, researchers, businessmen, managers or social activists, are highly interested in understanding the way the global economy works today. As the topic of global economy is interdisciplinary and complex it can be studied from different perspectives and levels of analysis. The macro level deals with international organizations and regimes, the meso level emphasizes the role played by countries and companies, and the micro level insists on the literature related to globalization and transnational movements. The aims of the paper are to present the evolution of the world’s ten largest economies by gross domestic product in the period 2015-2016 and to emphasize the economic competition between the USA and China. The research methodology is based on a quantitative method. The results of the paper show that these two powerful economies are the main protagonists in the race for economic supremacy and emphasize the Chinese challenge to the American dominance.

The Global Economic Crisis and the Africa Rising Narrative

African Journals Online (AJOL)

in the context of the intertwined global socio-economic as well as ecological crisis ...... Warming and Environmental Destruction, London: Resistance Books. .... Piketty, T., 2014, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, The Belknap Press of Harvard.

Liberal Arts and Sciences Education for the 21st Century Knowledge Economy : A Case Study of Amsterdam University College, The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Wende, M.C.

2016-01-01

This chapter describes how Amsterdam University College (AUC), a liberal arts and science honours college in The Netherlands, promotes internationalization and adopts a global approach in its curriculum and academic community. It shows how global learning outcomes and 21st century skills can be

Liberal Arts and Sciences Education for the 21st Century Knowledge Economy: A Case Study of Amsterdam University College, The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein Bog, Deirdre; van der Wende, Marijk; Jung, Insung; Nishimura, Mikiko; Sasao, Toshiaki

2016-01-01

This chapter describes how Amsterdam University College (AUC), a liberal arts and science honours college in The Netherlands, promotes internationalization and adopts a global approach in its curriculum and academic community. It shows how global learning outcomes and 21st century skills can be

The constructive process in the Cimorro zone in the the Cathedral of Avila, (century XII-XIV. Hypothesis and its verification through the analysis of Structural Stability Smart and Sustainable Offices (SSO

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Mª A. Benito Pradillo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a hypothesis about the order in the constructive process for the head zone in the Cathedral of Ávila, called Cimorro. The hypothesis proposed in this area considers for its construction three different stages: XII Century, XIII Century and XIV Century. The proposed hypotesis have been verified with the Analysis of Stability realised. The theoretical Framework used is the Limit Analysis to Masonry Structures. After prooving the Structural Stability for each of the building stages, the following conclusions are made: Through the XII Century, the possibility of closing the central vault without Buttress System for a short period of time and the subsequent placement of a tribune is stated. A fortification formed by the barbican and the «adarves» were built during the XIII Century. In the XIV Century, the tribune is removed and replaced with the Buttress System with buttress and double flying buttress, which we can see nowadays.

Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Ledna, Catherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; McJeon, Haewon; Kyle, Page; Williams, James H.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement requires countries to articulate near-term emissions reduction strategies through to 2025 or 2030 by communicating nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as encouraging the formulation of long-term low-emission development strategies (Article 4.19)1. In response, many countries have either submitted or are preparing mid-century strategies2. Most NDCs set high-level near-term goals—such as limits on emissions or emissions intensity3—which do not provide information about the extent to which they lay the foundations of technology, infrastructure and institutions for deeper reductions in the future, which is a key question for decision makers. Here, using a state-level model of the US embedded within a global integrated assessment model4,5, we demonstrate that although the US NDC lies on a straight-line emissions pathway towards its mid-century strategy, the resulting energy system transitions involve nonlinear transformations. The rates of capacity additions and capital investments in electricity generation beyond 2025 are more than three times the rates during the next decade. Our results demonstrate the need for global stocktaking exercises to evaluate the NDCs using metrics broader than emissions to better illuminate their effectiveness in addressing the Paris Agreement's long-term goals6,7.

Effect of global warming in Thailand

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Suphat Vongvisessomjai

2010-08-01

Full Text Available The earth absorbs much radiation from the sun to warm the atmosphere, the land, and the oceans. This energy is reradiatedback into space. In the past, the thermal budget of the earth is more or less balanced, with radiation from the sun onpar with thermal radiation from the earth. With increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, some of the thermal radiationis absorbed by these gases resulting in an increase of global mean surface temperature, melting of polar ices and thuscontributing to a rising of sea level. However, sea-level changes depend upon four main processes: 1 Glacio-eustasy, 2Emergence/subsidence of land, 3 Man-made activities, and 4 Ocean-atmosphere effects. The assessment report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990, which was based on past data in Europe and the USA, including theNorth Atlantic Ocean, published a mean temperature of 14°C and an actual increase of 1°C in the last century, plus an increaseof CO2 from 370 ppmv to 550 ppmv, and a three-fold temperature increase of 3°C in this century. All these changes are projectinga sea level rise (SLR of 31-110 cm per century on global scale, which was in fact applicable to the North Atlantic. Theassessment report of the IPCC Working Group I (1996 has realized that differential SLR occurs due to different geographicalconditions. It identified ten regions on earth and compared the actual climate change to what it was postulated to be, andcame up with SLR of 15-95 cm per century. The assessment report of the IPCC Working Group II (2001 employed improveddata obtained from tide gauges and satellite images as well as mathematical model results with the most convincing evidencein the North Atlantic, and it concluded an SLR of 9-88 cm per century. But it had, however, noted a lack of data in the Pacificand Indian Ocean. The assessment report of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM, 2007 that included six differentarctic and antarctic climate science

Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

2016-03-01

Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

Metrological traceability and harmonization of medical tests: a quantum leap forward is needed to keep pace with globalization and stringent IVD-regulations in the 21st century!

Science.gov (United States)

Cobbaert, Christa; Smit, Nico; Gillery, Philippe

2018-05-07

In our efforts to advance the profession and practice of clinical laboratory medicine, strong coordination and collaboration are needed more than ever before. At the dawn of the 21st century, medical laboratories are facing many unmet clinical needs, a technological revolution promising a plethora of better biomarkers, financial constraints, a growing scarcity of well-trained laboratory technicians and a sharply increasing number of International Organization for Standardization guidelines and new regulations to which medical laboratories should comply in order to guarantee safety and effectiveness of medical test results. Although this is a global trend, medical laboratories across continents and countries are in distinct phases and experience various situations. A universal underlying requirement for safe and global use of medical test results is the standardization and harmonization of test results. Since two decades and after a number of endeavors on standardization/harmonization of medical tests, it is time to reflect on the effectiveness of the approaches used. To keep laboratory medicine sustainable, viable and affordable, clarification of the promises of metrological traceability of test results for improving sick and health care, realization of formal commitment among all stakeholders of the metrological traceability chain and preparation of a joint and global plan for action are essential prerequisites. Policy makers and regulators should not only overwhelm the diagnostic sector with oversight and regulations but should also create the conditions by establishing a global professional forum for anchoring the metrological traceability concept in the medical test domain. Even so, professional societies should have a strong voice in their (inter-) national governments to negotiate long-lasting public policy commitment and funds for global standardization of medical tests.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

A comparative analysis of international frameworks for 21st century competences: implications for national curriculum policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voogt, Joke; Pareja Roblin, N.N.

2012-01-01

National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites

Just Security and the Crisis of Global Governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Durch, W.; Larik, J.; Ponzio, R.

2016-01-01

Pursuing security and justice jointly in global governance will be vital to human progress in the twenty-first century. Humanity lives and operates simultaneously in three spaces critical to contemporary life and governance: public, transactional and ecological. Failures in one space can cascade

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hurst, Brian; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

a century. We analyze trend-following returns through various economic environments and highlight the diversifi cation benefi ts the strategy has historically provided in equity bear markets. Finally, we evaluate the recent environment for the strategy in the context of these long-term results.......We study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1903, extending the existing evidence by more than 80 years. We fi nd that trend-following has delivered strong positive returns and realized a low correlation to traditional asset classes each decade for more than...

The international implications of the Chinese model of development in the Global South: Asian Consensus as a network power

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Vadell

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes People's Republic of China (PRC economic and political ascendance in the 21st century focusing on the evolution of the sui generis economic development model and its significances of the evolution of relationship between China and the developing countries in the peripheral "Global South." The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between China and the Global South (Africa and South America in the 21st century, characterized as a new Center-periphery global network power based on trade and investment that we call as "Asian Consensus."

Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

2016-08-01

Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (Ω_Ar) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H⁺] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO₂ concentrations – Q₁₀ (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in Ω_Ar saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q₁₀. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification

One Hundred Years in the Making: The Global Tobacco Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Wipfli, Heather; Samet, Jonathan M

2016-01-01

Today's global tobacco epidemic may represent one of the first instances of the globalization of a noninfectious cause of disease. This article focuses on the first century of the global tobacco epidemic and its current status, reviewing the current and projected future of the global tobacco epidemic and the steps that are in progress to end it. In the United States and many countries of Western Europe, tobacco consumption peaked during the 1960s and 1970s and declined as tobacco control programs were initiated, motivated by the evidence indicting smoking as a leading cause of disease. Despite this policy advancement and the subsequent reductions in tobacco consumption, the global tobacco epidemic continued to grow exponentially in the later years of the twentieth century, as the multinational companies sought new markets to replace those shrinking in high-income countries. In response, between 2000 and 2004, the World Health Organization developed its first public health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which entered into force in 2005. An accompanying package of interventions has been implemented. New approaches to tobacco control, including plain packaging and single representation of brands, have been implemented by Australia and Uruguay, respectively, but have been challenged by the tobacco industry.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

A View from Japan. Citizenship for the 21st Century: The Role of the Social Studies. Fourth in a Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayama, Shuichi

1989-01-01

Points out problems in planning a social studies curriculum that will prepare Japanese society for the 21st Century. Claiming that the current curricula is ethnocentric, looks at objectives and teaching strategies for developing a global approach. Recommends development of a global information network to increase awareness of the interrelatedness…

Multiple Intelligences: The Most Effective Platform for Global 21st Century Educational and Instructional Methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

McFarlane, Donovan A.

2011-01-01

This paper examines the theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) as the most viable and effective platform for 21st century educational and instructional methodologies based on the understanding of the value of diversity in today's classrooms and educational institutions, the unique qualities and characteristics of individual learners, the…

GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) version 1.1 (NODC Accession 0001644)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GLobal Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a cooperative effort to coordinate global synthesis projects funded through NOAA/DOE and NSF as part of the Joint...

PIXE analysis of Moroccan architectural glazed ceramics of 14th-18th centuries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchiatti, A.; Azzou, A.; El Amraoui, M.; Haddad, M.; Bejjit, L.; Ait Lyazidi, S.

2009-01-01

The PIXE analysis of glazes and ceramic bodies of a set of architectural glazed ceramics (mostly the zellige mosaics), sampled from seven Moroccan monuments from the 14th to the 18th century AD, has been performed. We have identified high lead glazes, opacified with tin-oxide, laid over a calciferous body to produce hard tiles easy to chisel as required by the zellige technique. The analysis has revealed significant differences between the monuments examined: in particular in the formulation of the base glass and in the use of stains to produce coloured glazes. We observed the peculiarity of materials used in Marrakech and we could distinguish, both in terms of glazes and ceramic bodies, the two almost contemporary Madersas dedicated to the sultan Bou Inan, one in Meknes the other in Fez. The PIXE measurements integrate a broad range of spectrometric investigations performed in the past few years. (author)

Learning from Our Global Competitors: A Comparative Analysis of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Education Pipelines in the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Christina M.

2011-01-01

Maintaining a competitive edge within the 21st century is dependent on the cultivation of human capital, producing qualified and innovative employees capable of competing within the new global marketplace. Technological advancements in communications technology as well as large scale, infrastructure development has led to a leveled playing field…

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

A very British affair six Britons and the development of time series analysis during the 20th century

CERN Document Server

Mills, T

2012-01-01

This book develops the major themes of time series analysis from its formal beginnings in the early part of the 20th century to the present day through the research of six distinguished British statisticians, all of whose work is characterised by the British traits of pragmatism and the desire to solve practical problems of importance.

Energy Transition for Industry: India and the Global Context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This publication further develops the analysis presented in the India chapter of Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 and provides insights on the implications of achieving deep energy and CO2 emission cuts in the industrial sector both for India and globally. It investigates the least-cost combination of options that can significantly reduce energy and CO2 emissions in India's industrial sector, while enabling the Indian economy to continue to grow and alleviate energy poverty. For India to play its part in helping to realise deep cuts in global CO2 emissions by the middle of the 21st century, it will need to achieve rapid economic development over the next 40 years with only a very small increase in emissions. Currently there is no precedent for such a low-CO2 development path. The challenge for India will be to achieve strong economic growth while improving energy security, but without locking in high emissions.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-05

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

2011-01-01

Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lamboni, Matieyendou [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Monod, Herve, E-mail: herve.monod@jouy.inra.f [INRA, Unite MIA (UR341), F78352 Jouy en Josas Cedex (France); Makowski, David [INRA, UMR Agronomie INRA/AgroParisTech (UMR 211), BP 01, F78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France)

2011-04-15

Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

E-business Environment in the Global Information Society

OpenAIRE

Vymětal, Dominik; Suchánek, Petr

2009-01-01

In today´s digital 21st century, almost all businesses face intense competition from competitors all around the globe. There are no borders and business area for the all companies is almost unlimited. As the main supports of mentioned fact are globalization and ICT´s development. Influences such as globalization, increased popularity of outsourcing and offshoring have recently combined to produce an environment where ICT graduates need to have up-to-date and industry-relevant knowledge and sk...

Just Security and the Crisis of Global Governance

OpenAIRE

Durch, W.; Larik, J.; Ponzio, R.

2016-01-01

Pursuing security and justice jointly in global governance will be vital to human progress in the twenty-first century. Humanity lives and operates simultaneously in three spaces critical to contemporary life and governance: public, transactional and ecological. Failures in one space can cascade into others. Managing them so as to avoid such failures is an essential function of global governance. Public space is the home of governance (formal and informal) and of rights-exercising groups and ...

Approaches to the Understanding of the Global Governance

OpenAIRE

Кукарцев, Олег Вікторович

2016-01-01

A central issue in this paper is the origins and specific character of global governance discourse that formed at the turn of the twenty-first century. The new discourse marked a gradual exclusion of most early discourses – «international relations» and «world government». It is demonstrated that new term «global governance» signalizes about grand reconstruction of previous international relations discourse where international society was considered as the complex of states and their governme...

Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja; Navarro, Marí a; Merks, Roeland; Blom, Joke

2015-01-01

) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided

Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

2016-01-01

Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

The Meaning of the Global City: Jacques Ellul's Continued Relevance to 21st-Century Urbanism

Science.gov (United States)

Toly, Noah

2012-01-01

Jacques Ellul's book, "The Meaning of the City," widely recognized as one of the most important twentieth century theological reflections on the city, was also one of his most controversial scholarly contributions. Many urbanists interpreted the book as demeaning the city and diminishing the importance of urban policy, planning, design,…

Book reviews: Marsh David, The EURO – The Politics of the New Global Currency

OpenAIRE

Lazar, Isadora

2011-01-01

The EURO – The Politics of the New Global Currency, written by David Marsh and published in both English and German, is a very thorough chronicle of the birth of the European common currency, from its early days, almost half a century before, and of its development until nowadays and even beyond, as it includes considerations on short term dynamics. David Marsh describes the story of the euro in a very complex manner, through a detailed, comprehensive and up to date analysis of the gathered d...

Integration and global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data for studying macromolecular interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Brautigam, Chad A; Zhao, Huaying; Vargas, Carolyn; Keller, Sandro; Schuck, Peter

2016-05-01

Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a powerful and widely used method to measure the energetics of macromolecular interactions by recording a thermogram of differential heating power during a titration. However, traditional ITC analysis is limited by stochastic thermogram noise and by the limited information content of a single titration experiment. Here we present a protocol for bias-free thermogram integration based on automated shape analysis of the injection peaks, followed by combination of isotherms from different calorimetric titration experiments into a global analysis, statistical analysis of binding parameters and graphical presentation of the results. This is performed using the integrated public-domain software packages NITPIC, SEDPHAT and GUSSI. The recently developed low-noise thermogram integration approach and global analysis allow for more precise parameter estimates and more reliable quantification of multisite and multicomponent cooperative and competitive interactions. Titration experiments typically take 1-2.5 h each, and global analysis usually takes 10-20 min.

A framework for 2-stage global sensitivity analysis of GastroPlus™ compartmental models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scherholz, Megerle L; Forder, James; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2018-04-01

Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are becoming an important consideration for regulatory submissions, requiring further evaluation to establish the need for global sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the benefits of an extensive analysis, global sensitivity was implemented for the GastroPlus™ model, a well-known commercially available platform, using four example drugs: acetaminophen, risperidone, atenolol, and furosemide. The capabilities of GastroPlus were expanded by developing an integrated framework to automate the GastroPlus graphical user interface with AutoIt and for execution of the sensitivity analysis in MATLAB ® . Global sensitivity analysis was performed in two stages using the Morris method to screen over 50 parameters for significant factors followed by quantitative assessment of variability using Sobol's sensitivity analysis. The 2-staged approach significantly reduced computational cost for the larger model without sacrificing interpretation of model behavior, showing that the sensitivity results were well aligned with the biopharmaceutical classification system. Both methods detected nonlinearities and parameter interactions that would have otherwise been missed by local approaches. Future work includes further exploration of how the input domain influences the calculated global sensitivity measures as well as extending the framework to consider a whole-body PBPK model.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2017-01-01

Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.

INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florina BRAN

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Information and knowledge are two important entities, which make up present stage of globalization, based mostly on their dynamics. This paper is providing an overview of information and knowledge in global context, highlighting the importance of information society that turned into knowledge society in the beginning of the 21 century, being driven by Internet – the latter, as part of globalization process. Modern economic theories recognise the importance of information in economic process because its impact on globalization process in economy was essential, and change the way how markets and companies work and represent the key factor of new era of economic development. This paper presents main results from available literature about the relationship between information, knowledge and economic theory in a global conterxt and finally explained the benefits of the knowledge economy to all countries.

[The century of noise].

Science.gov (United States)

Pivato, Stefano

2011-01-01

When did, actually, "noise pollution" begin to coexist along with our daily life and activities and change our environmental natural sounds, which hadn't changed for centuries? Industrial revolution, first, and the introduction of new technologies later, introduced "noise" as one of the most relevant features that marked the development of progress. Later on, it became the distinctive characteristic of the XX century. The incessant rumble of industrial machinery, of weapons and cannons from the wars, the roar of cars in the streets and aeroplanes from the sky, the deafening sound of XX century music, as well as the shouting out of new political ideas suddenly invaded the new century. They became part of our daily life so much as almost to become a new lay religion of modernity. As the century proceeded towards economic boom, a "new noisy Man" complied with this change, becoming the anthropologic prototype who was able to adapt to the new style of life and even contribute to its expansion. All this finally allows, to day, a definition of the XX century as the "century of noise".

A Comparative Analysis of International Frameworks for 21st Century Competences: Implications for National Curriculum Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Voogt, Joke; Roblin, Natalie Pareja

2012-01-01

National curricula need to change drastically to comply with the competences needed for the 21st century. In this paper eight frameworks describing 21st century competences were analysed. A comprehensive search for information about 21st century competences was conducted across the official websites of the selected frameworks, resulting in 32…

A Transatlantic Bargain for the 21st Century: The United States, Europe, and the Transatlantic Alliance

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

THE 21ST CENTURY: THE UNITED STATES, EUROPE, AND THE TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE The burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together. A change...had led Europe and America to drift apart, he argued that the “the burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together,” requiring allies...capabilities, including Norway, Belgium, Italy, and Denmark. Qatar , the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Jordan, and Swe- den also played key operational roles

Political priority of global oral health: an analysis of reasons for international neglect.

Science.gov (United States)

Benzian, Habib; Hobdell, Martin; Holmgren, Christopher; Yee, Robert; Monse, Bella; Barnard, Johannes T; van Palenstein Helderman, Wim

2011-06-01

Global Oral Health suffers from a lack of political attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This paper analyses the reasons for this political neglect through the lens of four areas of political power: the power of the ideas, the power of the issue, the power of the actors, and the power of the political context (using a modified Political Power Framework by Shiffman and Smith. Lancet370 [2007] 1370). The analysis reveals that political priority for global oral health is low, resulting from a set of complex issues deeply rooted in the current global oral health sector, its stakeholders and their remit, the lack of coherence and coalescence; as well as the lack of agreement on the problem, its portrayal and possible solutions. The shortcomings and weaknesses demonstrated in the analysis range from rather basic matters, such as defining the issue in an agreed way, to complex and multi-levelled issues concerning appropriate data collection and agreement on adequate solutions. The political priority of Global Oral Health can only be improved by addressing the underlying reasons that resulted in the wide disconnection between the international health discourse and the small sector of Global Oral Health. We hope that this analysis may serve as a starting point for a long overdue, broad and candid international analysis of political, social, cultural, communication, financial and other factors related to better prioritisation of oral health. Without such an analysis and the resulting concerted action the inequities in Global Oral Health will grow and increasingly impact on health systems, development and, most importantly, human lives. © 2011 FDI World Dental Federation.

The Construction of Platform Imperialism in the Globalization Era

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dal Yong Jin

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In the early 21st century, platforms, known as digital media intermediaries, have greatly influenced people’s daily lives. Due to the importance of platforms for the digital economy and culture, including intellectual property and participatory culture, several countries have developed their own social network sites and Web portals. Nonetheless, a handful of Western countries, primarily the U.S., have dominated the global platform market and society. This paper aims to historicize the concept of imperialism in the globalized 21st century. It investigates whether the recent growth of American-based platforms has resulted in a change to the fundamental idea of the imperialism thesis by analyzing the evolutionary nature of imperialism towards platform imperialism. It then addresses whether we are experiencing a new notion of imperialism by mapping out several core characteristics that define platform imperialism, including the swift growth and global dominance of SNSs and smartphones. It pays close attention to the capitalization of platforms and their global expansion, including the major role of intellectual property rights as the most significant form of capital accumulation in the digital age. It eventually endeavors to make a contribution to the platform imperialism discourse as a form of new imperialism, focusing on the nexus of great powers.

Globally Collaborative Experiential Learning

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Takeshi UTSUMI

2005-07-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The Global University System (GUS [Utsumi, et al, 2003] is a worldwide initiative to create advanced telecommunications infrastructure for access to educational resources across national and cultural boundaries for global peace. GUS aims to create a worldwide consortium of universities to provide the underdeveloped world with access to 21st Century education via broadband Internet technologies. The aim is to achieve “education and healthcare for all,” anywhere, anytime and at any pace. The GUS works in the major regions of the globe with partnerships of higher education and healthcare institutions. Learners in these regions will be able to take their courses from member institutions around the world to receive a GUS degree. These learners and their professors from partner institutions will also form a global forum for exchange of ideas and information and for conducting collaborative research and development with emerging global GRID computer network technology. Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG project [Utsumi, 2003] with a globally distributed computer simulation system, focusing on the issue of environment and sustainable development in developing countries, is to train would-be decision-makers in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques basing on “facts and figures.” The GUS will supply game players from around the world.

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

Global Dynamics of Dispersal and Diversification among Passerine Birds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kennedy, Jonathan David

Global variation in the distribution and diversity of species has been recognized by naturalists for centuries. However, despite extensive scientific study since the initial documentation of these patterns, we still lack a comprehensive explanation as to their underlying causes. Ultimately, this ...

Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2013-12-01

As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

Chronology of 3rd–5th Century Female Graves from Tarasovo Burial Ground

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Goldina Rimma D.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The article represents the concluding part a series of works by the authors on the dating of burials from the unique 1st–5th century Tarasovo burial ground in the Middle Kama region. The first article was dedicated to the chronology of graves dating back to the early Nyrgynda stage (1st–2nd centuries of this monument. The second and third publications feature an analysis of the chronology of 3rd–5th century male burials. The present work describes 160 female burials of 3rd–5th centuries analyzed from the perspective of chronology. Similarly to previous research, the three main methods employed by the authors of this research include those of formal typology, cultural stratigraphy and the nearest neighbour method. A total of 12 chronological groups were singled out as a result: 1st half of 3rd century A.D. (group 1; 2nd half of 3rd century (2; 3rd century (3; 4th century (group 4; 2nd half of 3rd–4th centuries (5а; 3rd–4th centuries (5б; 1st half of 5th century (6; 2nd half of 5th century (7; 5th century (group 8; 2nd half of 4th–5th centuries (9; 4th–5th centuries (10; 2nd half of 3rd–5th centuries

Chinese Avant-garde Art in the Late Twentieth Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Vampelj Suhadolnik

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The main topic of the present paper is the '85 Art Movement, which was the first significant nationwide Avant-garde art movement in China. This movement, which arose in the mid-80s, defined the aesthetic foundations and identity of contemporary Chinese art, and represented Chinese globalized society on the threshold of the 21st century. Whilst focusing on China’s specific cultural and political contexts, the present paper analyses the concepts of humanism (renwen 人文 and idea (guannian 觀念. The spirit of humanism, with a rationalist connotation, and the desire for a revolution of ideas were the two main factors underpinning the Chinese Avant-garde movement and its artistic expressions. The paper also shows that the '85 Art Movement did not stem solely from the socio-political challenges of the 1980s, but should be regarded in the wider context of the “modernization project of Chinese art”, in the early 20th century.

Open Educational Resources: American Ideals, Global Questions

Science.gov (United States)

Weiland, Steven

2015-01-01

Educational relations between societies and cultures that begin with benevolent intentions can come to be seen as threats to national autonomy and local preferences. Indeed, side by side with the growth since the first years of this century of Open Educational Resources (OER) there has been worry about their impact on global educational…

Global change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sluijs, A.

2006-01-01

Proxy data indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations expected for the next centuries have not been equaled since the early Paleogene, approximately 66 to 45 Million years (Ma) ago. The early Paleogene global climate appears to have been substantially warmer than that of present day, likely in

Of Sound Mind: Mental Distress and Sound in Twentieth-Century Media Culture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Birdsall, C.; Siewert, S.

2013-01-01

This article seeks to specify the representation of mental disturbance in sound media during the twentieth century. It engages perspectives on societal and technological change across the twentieth century as crucial for aesthetic strategies developed in radio and sound film production. The analysis

"Competing Conceptions of Globalization" Revisited: Relocating the Tension between World-Systems Analysis and Globalization Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Clayton, Thomas

2004-01-01

In recent years, many scholars have become fascinated by a contemporary, multidimensional process that has come to be known as "globalization." Globalization originally described economic developments at the world level. More specifically, scholars invoked the concept in reference to the process of global economic integration and the seemingly…

Learner Analysis Framework for Globalized E-Learning: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mamta Saxena

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The shift to technology-mediated modes of instructional delivery and increased global connectivity has led to a rise in globalized e-learning programs. Educational institutions face multiple challenges as they seek to design effective, engaging, and culturally competent instruction for an increasingly diverse learner population. The purpose of this study was to explore strategies for expanding learner analysis within the instructional design process to better address cultural influences on learning. A case study approach leveraged the experience of practicing instructional designers to build a framework for culturally competent learner analysis.The study discussed the related challenges and recommended strategies to improve the effectiveness of cross-cultural learner analysis. Based on the findings, a framework for conducting cross-cultural learner analysis to guide the cultural analysis of diverse learners was proposed. The study identified the most critical factors in improving cross-cultural learner analysis as the judicious use of existing research on cross-cultural theories and joint deliberation on the part of all the participants from the management to the learners. Several strategies for guiding and improving the cultural inquiry process were summarized. Barriers and solutions for the requirements are also discussed.

The ecological century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worthington, E. B.

1981-01-01

This essay attempts to reconstruct the evolution of Ecology as the scientific basis for environmental conservation and human progress, as seen through the eyes of a biologist who has exercised that science during a number of tasks in various parts of the world over most of the twentieth century. From its beginnings in evolutionary thinking during the nineteenth century, ecology emerged from natural history at the beginning of the twentieth. At first the running was made by botanists; but this was soon followed by zoologists, who dealt with more mobile communities. The first quarter-century was mainly exploratory; the second was mainly descriptive (although biological exploration was still dominant in the tropics). The third quarter saw ecology developing into an experimental science, and, as the environmental revolution got into its stride, ecology became organized both nationally and internationally. Although the term is now often misused and sometimes misunderstood by laymen, the last quarter-century is seeing the wide application of ecology in environmental and human affairs, and this gives some assurance that the twenty-first century will not become one of chaos.

Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

2014-12-01

Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA’S AND CHINA’S PARTICIPATING IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS EXPERIENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir E. Petrovskiy

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the comparative analysis of Russian and Chinese participation in the current system of global governance, and in its reform. The author views participation of the respective countries in the system of global governance as part of their foreign policy and foreign policy strategy. He shows common and distinctive features of conceptual and practical approaches towards global governance defined by specific features of Russia’s and China’s history, economic development, political culture and traditions. Based on this comparative analysis, the author speculates on the future trends of participation of the two countries in the global governance system, in the spheres of global economy and international security, and on the future trends of their policy coordination in these respective areas.

Charting a Democratic Course for Global Citizenship Education: Research Directions and Current Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, John P.

2016-01-01

This article outlines research directions for global citizenship education, by emphasizing the centrality of democratic goals for schools in the 21st century. Despite a significant shift in educational policies and practices towards addressing education that respond to the conditions of globalization, there is not a clear vision regarding its role…

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

ACE2 Global Digital Elevation Model : User Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, R. G.; Berry, P. A. M.; Benveniste, J.

2013-12-01

Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2 (ACE2), first released in October 2009, is the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) created by fusing the high accuracy of over 100 million altimeter retracked height estimates, derived primarily from the ERS-1 Geodetic Mission, with the high frequency content available within the near-global Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. This novel ACE2 GDEM is freely available at 3”, 9”, 30” and 5' and has been distributed via the web to over 680 subscribers. This paper presents the results of a detailed analysis of geographical distribution of subscribed users, along with fields of study and potential uses. Investigations have also been performed to determine the most popular spatial resolutions and the impact these have on the scope of data downloaded. The analysis has shown that, even though the majority of users have come from Europe and America, a significant number of website hits have been received from South America, Africa and Asia. Registered users also vary widely, from research institutions and major companies down to individual hobbyists looking at data for single projects.

Global energy demand outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatcher, S.R.

1999-01-01

Perhaps the most compelling issue the world will face in the next century is the quality of life of the increasing populations of the poorer regions of the world. Energy is the key to generating wealth and protecting the environment. Today, most of the energy generated comes from fossil fuels and there should be enough for an increase in consumption over the next half century. However, this is likely to be impacted by the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions. Various authoritative studies lead to a global energy demand projection of between 850 to 1070 EJ per year in the mid-21 st century, which is nearly three times as much as the world uses today. The studies further indicate that, unless there is a major thrust by governments to create incentives and/or to levy heavy taxes, the use of fossil fuels will continue to increase and there will be a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions globally. Most of the increase will come from the newly industrializing countries which do not have the technology or financial resources to install non-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, and the new renewable energy technologies. The real issue for the nuclear industry is investment cost. Developing countries, in particular will have difficulty in raising capital for energy projects with a high installed cost and will have difficulties in raising large blocks of capital. A reduction in investment costs of the order of 50% with a short construction schedule is in order if nuclear power is to compete and contribute significantly to energy supply and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Current nuclear power plants and methods are simply not suited to the production of plants that will compete in this situation. Mass production designs are needed to get the benefits of cost reduction. Water cooled reactors are well demonstrated and positioned to achieve the cost reduction necessary but only via some radical thinking on the part of the designers. The reactors of

Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

2010-01-01

Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation,

Diplomacy and Cosmopolitanism in a Globalized World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adina Borcan

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Due to the fact that there is a new world culture, with increasing connections of varied local cultures, the characteristics of the 21st century seem to be globalization, seen as “a matter of increasing long-distance interconnectedness, at least across national boundaries, preferably between continents as well” (Hannerz, 1996, p. 17. However, despite this tendency towards globalization, there are still some communities who have no contacts even within the same country (different tribes from an African country, for example or countries which are isolated due to political doctrine (North Korea, for example, where contact with the rest of the world is not possible. The link depends on the place and time: the strength of the communist era in Eastern Europe compared to the openness of nowadays, for example, or the lack of interconnectedness in the Third World in the 21st century due to the financial situation while in the same period of time, in developed countries, globalization is no longer theory, but everyday life (consumer goods coming from the other side of the world, tourists, exchange programmes, etc.. In recent times, people everywhere have cultivated links and relationships to people and places in other countries and on other continents, especially in a political context. “Globalization creates First Worlds in the Third Worlds and Third Worlds in the First World” (Parameswaran, 2008, p. 116. The diplomat is one of the strangers who is playing an important and increasing role in globalizing the world. The diplomats’ status and challenges are analysed through the theories of Hannerz, Simmel, Luckmann, and Stonequist.

ROLE OF MEGALOPOLISES IN SOCIO-PHILOSOPHICAL COMPREHENSION OF GLOBALIZATION PROCESS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nistarova Anna Aleksandrovna

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In her article the author tries to establish linkage between the events that took place at the turn of the 20th – 21st centuries and the aspiration of some countries for negating or limiting their jurisdiction with respect to international law due to the international bipolar system disintegration. It should be noted that the globalization, regionalization and glocalization processes are detected as new phenomenon that arouse as a result of international relations system evolution. The article reveals socio-philosophical content of globalization phenomenon in the nature of both spatial and civilization development of the modern world. The author highlights the necessity of theoretical basis generation so that to favour scientific discourse on the globalization issues in the light of new actors (megalopolises in the international relations system. Laying stress on the major cities as the international activity centers, the author emphasizes the requirement for comprehensive analysis of their involvement into the transformation processes. The intensification of local against global actors’ position is indicated by the author in the article. It points to the research of their social and political role as a new not yet generated investigation form within the bounds of philosophical science, and it favors preservation of peace integrity.

World History, Liberal Arts, and Global Citizenship

Science.gov (United States)

Watt, Carey A.

2012-01-01

In this article, the author investigates the role that world history might play in reshaping the liberal arts to better serve a twenty-first-century world that is increasingly interconnected, plural, and "globalized." While "Western civ" courses and perspectives are much less influential today than they were in the first seven decades of the…

Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng

2017-11-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.

The Flickering Global City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Slater

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This article explores new dimensions of the global city in light of the correlation between hegemonic transition and the prominence of financial centers. It counterposes Braudel’s historical sequence of dominant cities to extant approaches in the literature, shifting the emphasis from a convergence of form and function to variations in history and structure. The marked increase of finance in the composition of London, New York and Tokyo has paralleled each city’s occupation of a distinct niche in world financial markets: London is the principal center of currency exchange, New York is the primary equities market, and Tokyo is the leader in international banking. This division expresses the progression of world-economies since the nineteenth century and unfolds in the context of the present hegemonic transition. By combining world-historical and city-centered approaches, the article seeks to reframe the global city and overcome the limits inherent in the paradigm of globalization.

PLACE IDENTITY IN 21ST CENTURY ARCHITECTURE IN SOUTH KOREA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hee Sun (Sunny Choi

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Changes to the built environment brought about by economic and cultural globalization have resulted in a blurring of national identities worldwide. Consequently, place identity has emerged as a central concern for setting the 21st century urban development agenda. This paper examines the ways in which specific aspects of urban typology relate with cultural engagements and meanings within old and new, in terms of the transferable values of place identity, particularly within South East and Far East Asian countries. Firstly, the theoretical and practical key concepts for design ideology are described in relation to the value of place identity within contemporary urban forms. These key concepts are then operationalized in order to identify the implementation of the role of place identity, not only within architectural typology, but also through a cultural sense of space and time; a hybrid typological language. The focus of this paper is to explore how the role of place identity in physical built form relates with design qualities and cultural engagement, and how the needs of local culture can be incorporated, sustained and developed alongside contemporary architecture and rapid urban development. The paper provides a critical reflection and discussion of 21st Century architecture in South Korea, particularly how the locally situated and informed might be reconciled with the global aspirations of the contemporary city.

Finite element application to global reactor analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, F.A.R.

1981-01-01

The Finite Element Method is described as a Coarse Mesh Method with general basis and trial functions. Various consequences concerning programming and application of Finite Element Methods in reactor physics are drawn. One of the conclusions is that the Finite Element Method is a valuable tool in solving global reactor analysis problems. However, problems which can be described by rectangular boxes still can be solved with special coarse mesh programs more efficiently. (orig.) [de

Global wind energy outlook 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-09-01

The global market for wind power has been expanding faster than any other source of renewable energy. From just 4,800 MW in 1995 the world total has multiplied more than twelve-fold to reach over 59,000 MW at the end of 2005. The international market is expected to have an annual turnover in 2006 of more than euro 13 billion, with an estimated 150,000 people employed around the world. The success of the industry has attracted investors from the mainstream finance and traditional energy sectors. In a number of countries the proportion of electricity generated by wind power is now challenging conventional fuels. The Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 reports that over a third of the world's electricity - crucially including that required by industry - can realistically be supplied by wind energy by the middle of the century. The report provides an industry blueprint that explains how wind power could supply 34% of the world's electricity by 2050. Most importantly, it concludes that if wind turbine capacity implemented on this scale it would save 113 billion tonnes of CO2 from entering the atmosphere by 2050. This places wind power as one of the world's most important energy sources for the 21st century. The 'Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006' runs three different scenarios for wind power - a Reference scenario based on figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA); a Moderate version which assumes that current targets for renewable energy are successful; and an advanced version assuming that all policy options in favour of renewables have been adopted. These are then set against two scenarios for global energy demand. Under the Reference scenario, growth in demand is again based on IEA projections; under the High Energy Efficiency version, a range of energy efficiency measures result in a substantial reduction in demand

Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

1977-01-01

Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kakuee, Omidreza, E-mail: okakuee@aeoi.org.ir [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad [Nuclear Science Research School, NSTRI, P.O. Box 14395-836, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A. [The Library, Museum and Documentation Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Parliament, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2012-02-15

The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135 Degree-Sign while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K{sub {alpha}} X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

External PIXE analysis of an Iranian 15th century poetry book

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kakuee, Omidreza; Fathollahi, Vahid; Oliaiy, Parvin; Lamehi-Rachti, Mohammad; Taheri, Raziyeh; Jafarian, Hosseinali A.

2012-01-01

The paints of illumination, ink and paper of an Iranian poetry manuscript originally belonging to 15th century but partly restored about 300 years ago are characterized by external PIXE. The technique was employed to determine the elemental composition of different inks and paints applied in the text and illumination as well as the paper of both the original masterpiece and the restored parts in order to evaluate the quality of restoration processes. The X-ray spectra were collected by a Si(Li) X-ray detector placed at a scattering angle of 135° while the beam charge was indirectly measured through the Ar K α X-ray yield originated from the irradiation of in-air Argon. By analysis of the collected PIXE spectra, concentration of different elements present in closely matched colored areas in the original and restored illuminations were compared. In the same way, the origin of colored pigments and black ink in the original and restored illuminations and texts are inferred.

Global Security, Medical Isotopes, and Nuclear Science

Science.gov (United States)

Ahle, Larry

2007-10-01

Over the past century basic nuclear science research has led to the use of radioactive isotopes into a wide variety of applications that touch our lives everyday. Some are obvious, such as isotopes for medical diagnostics and treatment. Others are less so, such as National/Global security issues. And some we take for granted, like the small amount of 241 Am that is in every smoke detector. At the beginning of this century, we are in a position where the prevalence and importance of some applications of nuclear science are pushing the basic nuclear science community for improved models and nuclear data. Yet, at the same time, the push by the basic nuclear science community to study nuclei that are farther and farther away from stability also offer new opportunities for many applications. This talk will look at several global security applications of nuclear science, summarizing current R&D and need for improved nuclear data It will also look at how applications of nuclear science, such as to medicine, will benefit from the push for more and more powerful radioactive ion beam facilities.

CULTURAL CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBALIZATION. MAJOR CONTEMPORARY THEORIES ON THE GLOBALLOCAL INTERFERENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GABRIELA DUMBRAVĂ

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The paper approaches the phenomenon of globalization from the perspective of the theories set forth by two leading 21st century figures in the field of global studies, namely Roland Robertson and Geoge Ritzer. By bringing together theoretical concepts and concrete examples from contemporary reality, this study attempts to point out that, depending on the relation between its driving forces, globalization can be either an integrative process, based on understanding, respecting and embracing diversity, or an act of leveling colonization.

Global robust exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Shengyuan; Lam, James; Ho, Daniel W.C.; Zou Yun

2004-01-01

This Letter investigates the problem of robust global exponential stability analysis for interval recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The values of the time-invariant uncertain parameters are assumed to be bounded within given compact sets. An improved condition for the existence of a unique equilibrium point and its global exponential stability of RNNs with known parameters is proposed. Based on this, a sufficient condition for the global robust exponential stability for interval RNNs is obtained. Both of the conditions are expressed in terms of LMIs, which can be checked easily by various recently developed convex optimization algorithms. Examples are provided to demonstrate the reduced conservatism of the proposed exponential stability condition

China's food economy in the early 21st Century; Development of China's food economy and its impact on global trade and on the EU

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tongeren, van F.W.; Huang, J.

2004-01-01

Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assesment of impacts

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Decadal-to-century timescale variability of regional and hemispheric scale temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

The fact that the surface temperature of the globe has warmed by 0.3--0.6 C since the mid-nineteenth century is an important piece of evidence in the ''global warming'' debate. What is the magnitude of this warming? Where has it been greatest? How unusual is the recent warming in the context of paleoclimatic reconstructions since A.D. 1500? This article seeks to address these issues by briefly reviewing the available literature

Strategic Management of Financial Institutions-Survival in the 21st Century

OpenAIRE

Arshad Khan, Muhammad

2006-01-01

In this paper in attempt has been made to propose some strategic measures which are important for the survival of financial institutions in the 21st century. The study points out that liberalization and globalization offered many opportunities to financial institutions to provide wider range of financial and adviser services for their management. The study stressed that banks and NBFIs in Pakistan must used the modern communication, human resource management should be strengthen, SMEs, rural ...

Global Systems-Level Analysis of Hfq and SmpB Deletion Mutants in Salmonella: Implications for Virulence and Global Protein Translation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ansong, Charles; Yoon, Hyunjin; Porwollik, Steffen; Mottaz-Brewer, Heather; Petritis, Brianne O.; Jaitly, Navdeep; Adkins, Joshua N.; Mcclelland, Michael; Heffron, Fred; Smith, Richard D.

2009-03-11

In recent years the profound importance of sRNA-mediated translational/post-transcriptional regulation has been increasingly appreciated. However, the global role played by translational regulation in control of gene expression has never been elucidated in any organism for the simple reason that global proteomics methods required to accurately characterize post-transcriptional processes and the knowledge of translational control mechanisms have only become available within the last few years. The proteins Hfq and SmpB are essential for the biological activity of a range of regulatory sRNAs and thus provide a means to identify potential targets of sRNA regulation. We performed a sample-matched global proteomics and transcriptional analysis to examine the role of Hfq and SmpB in global protein translation and virulence using the Salmonella typhimurium model system. Samples were analyzed from bacteria grown under four different conditions; two laboratory conditions and two that are thought to mimic the intracellular environment. We show that mutants of hfq and smpB directly or indirectly modulate at least 20% and 4% of all Salmonella proteins, respectively, with limited correlation between transcription and protein expression. This is the first report suggesting that SmpB could be a general translational regulator. The broad spectrum of proteins modulated by Hfq was also surprising including central metabolism, LPS biosynthesis, two-component regulatory systems, quorum sensing, SP1-TTSS, oxidative stress, fatty acid metabolism, nucleoside and nucleotide metabolism, envelope stress, aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases, amino acid biosynthesis, peptide transport, and motility.. The extent of global regulation of translation by Hfq is unexpected, with profound effects in all stages of Salmonella’s life cycle. Our results represent the first global systems-level analysis of translational regulation; the elucidated potential targets of sRNA regulation from our analysis will

Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, James; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page

2014-01-01

Our paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy and electricity generation technology performance for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on near term to century time scales. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that would be needed in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 15 to 29 trillion US$ (48–94%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions as well as increased electrification of the global economy. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 18 to 24 trillion US$ (compared to default technology climate policy assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario. We also highlight the implications of different technology evolution scenarios for different regions. Under default technology set, the heaviest investments across scenarios in power generation were observed in China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century. - Highlights: • We present electricity generation investment requirement under different scenarios. • A climate policy will lead to substantial increase in investment requirement. • Stringency of climate policy has significant implications for investments. • Technology evolution and performance alter investment requirements significantly. • China, India, Southeast Asia and Africa dominate as investment destinations

The profound reach of the 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake: Short‐term global triggering followed by a longer‐term global shadow

Science.gov (United States)

Pollitz, Fred; Burgmann, Roland; Stein, Ross S.; Sevilgen, Volkan

2014-01-01

The 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake was an unusually large intraoceanic strike‐slip event. For several days, the global M≥4.5 and M≥6.5 seismicity rate at remote distances (i.e., thousands of kilometers from the mainshock) was elevated. The strike‐slip mainshock appears through its Love waves to have triggered a global burst of strike‐slip aftershocks over several days. But the M≥6.5 rate subsequently dropped to zero for the succeeding 95 days, although the M≤6.0 global rate was close to background during this period. Such an extended period without an M≥6.5 event has happened rarely over the past century, and never after a large mainshock. Quiescent periods following previous large (M≥8) mainshocks over the past century are either much shorter or begin so long after a given mainshock that no physical interpretation is warranted. The 2012 mainshock is unique in terms of both the short‐lived global increase and subsequent long quiescent period. We believe that the two components are linked and interpret this pattern as the product of dynamic stressing of a global system of faults. Transient dynamic stresses can encourage short‐term triggering, but, paradoxically, it can also inhibit rupture temporarily until background tectonic loading restores the system to its premainshock stress levels.

xxi Century Latin American Journalists: Beyond Post-Truth Politics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana Amado

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Considering the complexity of circumstances that journalism is facing, academia should rethink the classical conceptions of the profession, especially when they reduce journalism to abstract models disregarding reporters’ actual practices. Results of a global research propose a new definition of journalism, a profession caught between conflicting interests that lack the supremacy of news production, as it used to be in the past century. It is all about broadening the debate to reconsider the role of the journalist in the contemporary information report, beyond current concepts such as post-truth.

A Study on establishment of air preservation policy strategy in 21st century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Han, Hwa Jin; Kang, Kwang Kyu; Yoon, Jung Im [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

For the air preservation and entire global environmental preservation in 21st century, it was implemented as a pre-work to maintain clean and clear air quality and to prepare a preventive air preservation policy. This study was focused on proposing the basic strategy of air preservation policy by deriving problems and evaluating actual results. 34 refs., 2 figs., 43 tabs.

Cooperative learning in 21st century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W. Johnson

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The 21st century brings four important challenges in which cooperation plays a central role: (1 a rapidly increasing global interdependence that will result in increasing local diversity as well as more frequent and intense conflicts, (2 the increasing number of democracies throughout the world, (3 the need for creative entrepreneurs, and (4 the growing importance of interpersonal relationships that affect the development of personal identity. The tools for meeting these challenges include cooperative learning. In this article the nature of cooperative learning will be reviewed, the underlying theory of social interdependence will be discussed, and the results of the research on cooperative learning will be briefly reviewed. The way in which cooperative learning contributes to meeting the four challenges will then be discussed.

The southern gate of the walled city of León, Spain (I-XII centuries. Stratigraphic and interpretive analysis of a new constructive evidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ángel Morillo

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In 2000 took place the discovery of a large wall ashlar, actually integrated into the basement of a shop in the historic town of León (Spain. The typology of his constructive system and its topographic position into the plan of the town, allow us to identify it as the front of one of the flanking towers of the southern gate (porta praetoria of the roman legionary fortress of legio VII gemina. This camp was built at the end of the first century-early second century AD. The wall has many architectural reforms and adjustments. Their analysis testifies its evolution between Early Roman Empire and the twelfth and thirteenth centuries AD. The analysis of the mural stratigraphy presented here show the relative chronologies of different masonry and constructive activities determining the diachronic development of the construction. We can also clarify historical aspects about the south wall of León. The data obtained have been compared with three-dimensional topographic space in which are found, illustrating on the evolution of the urban landscape.

The Next Frontier in Making Disciples: 21st-Century Technology Use in CCCU Member Institutions

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Karen E.

2012-01-01

An unprecedented opportunity exists for Christian colleges and universities to utilize 21st-century technology and the impact of globalization to broaden the use of distance learning for missional purposes through their educational offerings. Some institutions offer open education that allows those with Internet access to take courses at no cost…

Computational Thinking and Media & Information Literacy: An Integrated Approach to Teaching Twenty-First Century Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Gretter, Sarah; Yadav, Aman

2016-01-01

Developing students' 21st century skills, including creativity, critical thinking, and problem solving, has been a prevailing concern in our globalized and hyper-connected society. One of the key components for students to accomplish this is to take part in today's participatory culture, which involves becoming creators of knowledge rather than…

Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danielle C Claar

Full Text Available Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies. Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies. Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW for any date (since 1982, quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.

Toronto: A New Global City of Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlin, Daniel; Davies, Scott

2016-01-01

Toronto, Canada, is emblematic of a new stratum of global cities. Unlike many world capitals, the city has gained stature only over the past half century, having successfully post-industrialized into a new economy and become a major world centre for immigration. Paradoxically, education has emerged as both a major driver of change and a divider of…

Public action in the globalization process

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Ion Bucur

2007-12-01

Full Text Available The types of public investments change from a stage to another. The state always had economical objectives, even if these were not so explicit. However, its role of economy manager developed in the postwar period. The intervention systems diversified and their manipulation becomes more and more frequent. The establishment of intervention types and mechanisms must submit to the requirements. The essential problem is not the global reduction of the state investment, but its efficiency increase. In the current age, the characteristics of a public action are conditioned by the effects of globalization on the state sovereignty, power and capacity. At the end of the past century, debates on this subject were the main focus of the mass media and they emphasized some profound dissensions regarding the nature and implications of globalization.

Ensuring dynamic strategic fit of firms that compete globally in alliances and networks: proposing the Global SNA - Strategic Network Analysis - framework

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T. Diana L. Van Aduard de Macedo-Soares

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In order to sustain their competitive advantage in the current increasingly globalized and turbulent context, more and more firms are competing globally in alliances and networks that oblige them to adopt new managerial paradigms and tools. However, their strategic analyses rarely take into account the strategic implications of these alliances and networks, considering their global relational characteristics, admittedly because of a lack of adequate tools to do so. This paper contributes to research that seeks to fill this gap by proposing the Global Strategic Network Analysis - SNA - framework. Its purpose is to help firms that compete globally in alliances and networks to carry out their strategic assessments and decision-making with a view to ensuring dynamic strategic fit from both a global and relational perspective.

Early twenty-first-century droughts during the warmest climate

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Felix Kogan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The first 13 years of the twenty-first century have begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2%–6% and 7%–16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This feature article is a travelogue of the twenty-first-century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational space technology, called vegetation health (VH, which has the longest period of observation and provides good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI and thermal conditions. The twenty-first-century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia and Horn of Africa were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food security and led to food riots in some countries. This research also investigates drought dynamics presenting no definite conclusion about drought intensification or/and expansion during the time of the warmest globe.

An empirical analysis оn logistics performance and the global competitiveness

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Turkay Yildiz

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Logistics has been identified as an area to build cost and service advantages. Therefore, companies are more focused on customer needs and trying to find ways to reduce costs, improve quality and meet the growing expectations of their clients. Indeed, the global competition has led managers to begin to address the issue of providing more efficient logistics services. In this regard, this paper presents an empirical study on logistics performance and global competitiveness. This paper also identifies the associations between logistics performances and global competitiveness. The results indicate that some variables in global competitiveness scores contribute much higher to the logistics performances than the other variables through analysis. The variables that contribute much higher than the other variables to the logistics performances are shown.

What can we learn from global sensitivity analysis of biochemical systems?

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Kent, Edward; Neumann, Stefan; Kummer, Ursula; Mendes, Pedro

2013-01-01

Most biological models of intermediate size, and probably all large models, need to cope with the fact that many of their parameter values are unknown. In addition, it may not be possible to identify these values unambiguously on the basis of experimental data. This poses the question how reliable predictions made using such models are. Sensitivity analysis is commonly used to measure the impact of each model parameter on its variables. However, the results of such analyses can be dependent on an exact set of parameter values due to nonlinearity. To mitigate this problem, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to calculate parameter sensitivities in a wider parameter space. We applied global sensitivity analysis to a selection of five signalling and metabolic models, several of which incorporate experimentally well-determined parameters. Assuming these models represent physiological reality, we explored how the results could change under increasing amounts of parameter uncertainty. Our results show that parameter sensitivities calculated with the physiological parameter values are not necessarily the most frequently observed under random sampling, even in a small interval around the physiological values. Often multimodal distributions were observed. Unsurprisingly, the range of possible sensitivity coefficient values increased with the level of parameter uncertainty, though the amount of parameter uncertainty at which the pattern of control was able to change differed among the models analysed. We suggest that this level of uncertainty can be used as a global measure of model robustness. Finally a comparison of different global sensitivity analysis techniques shows that, if high-throughput computing resources are available, then random sampling may actually be the most suitable technique.

Global Health Solidarity.

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West-Oram, Peter G N; Buyx, Alena

2017-07-01

For much of the 20th century, vulnerability to deprivations of health has often been defined by geographical and economic factors. Those in wealthy, usually 'Northern' and 'Western', parts of the world have benefited from infrastructures, and accidents of geography and climate, which insulate them from many serious threats to health. Conversely, poorer people are typically exposed to more threats to health, and have lesser access to the infrastructures needed to safeguard them against the worst consequences of such exposure. However, in recent years the increasingly globalized nature of the world's economy, society and culture, combined with anthropogenic climate change and the evolution of antibiotic resistance, has begun to shift the boundaries that previously defined the categories of person threatened by many exogenous threats to health. In doing so, these factors expose both new and forgotten similarities between persons, and highlight the need for global cooperative responses to the existential threats posed by climate change and the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. In this article, we argue that these emerging health threats, in demonstrating the similarities that exist between even distant persons, provides a catalyst for global solidarity, which justifies, and provides motivation for, the establishment of solidaristic, cooperative global health infrastructures.

IPMP Global Fit - A one-step direct data analysis tool for predictive microbiology.

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Huang, Lihan

2017-12-04

The objective of this work is to develop and validate a unified optimization algorithm for performing one-step global regression analysis of isothermal growth and survival curves for determination of kinetic parameters in predictive microbiology. The algorithm is incorporated with user-friendly graphical interfaces (GUIs) to develop a data analysis tool, the USDA IPMP-Global Fit. The GUIs are designed to guide the users to easily navigate through the data analysis process and properly select the initial parameters for different combinations of mathematical models. The software is developed for one-step kinetic analysis to directly construct tertiary models by minimizing the global error between the experimental observations and mathematical models. The current version of the software is specifically designed for constructing tertiary models with time and temperature as the independent model parameters in the package. The software is tested with a total of 9 different combinations of primary and secondary models for growth and survival of various microorganisms. The results of data analysis show that this software provides accurate estimates of kinetic parameters. In addition, it can be used to improve the experimental design and data collection for more accurate estimation of kinetic parameters. IPMP-Global Fit can be used in combination with the regular USDA-IPMP for solving the inverse problems and developing tertiary models in predictive microbiology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Heterogeneous world model and collaborative scenarios of transition to globally sustainable nuclear energy systems

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Kuznetsov Vladimir

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The International Atomic Energy Agency's International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO is to help ensure that nuclear energy is available to contribute to meeting global energy needs of the 21st century in a sustainable manner. The INPRO task titled “Global scenarios” is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios that lead to a global vision of sustainable nuclear energy in the 21st century. Results of multiple studies show that the criteria for developing sustainable nuclear energy cannot be met without innovations in reactor and nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Combining different reactor types and associated fuel chains creates a multiplicity of nuclear energy system arrangements potentially contributing to global sustainability of nuclear energy. In this, cooperation among countries having different policy regarding fuel cycle back end would be essential to bring sustainability benefits from innovations in technology to all interested users. INPRO has developed heterogeneous global model to capture countries’ different policies regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in regional and global scenarios of nuclear energy evolution and applied in a number of studies performed by participants of the project. This paper will highlight the model and major conclusions obtained in the studies.

Brazilian Cannibals in Sixteenth-Century Europe and Seventeenth-Century Japan

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Leca, R.

2014-01-01

This article follows the transmission of a visual trope depicting Brazilian cannibals from accounts of travelers to Brazil in the 16th century to world maps and popular tales in 17th century Japan. The image of tribesmen roasting human limbs over a fire in woodcut illustrations (such as Theodore de

Retailers’ competitiveness on global markets